Player Usage

Dave Tippett told Jason Gregor he’s reviewing last year’s Oilers games and he has some Condors games, too. I think that’s an encouraging bit of news, curious people pursue knowledge during all 12 months of the year. So, if Dave Tippett can do it, maybe we can do a little of it, too. Let’s start with player usage, then and in the future.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Kent Wilson and Lowetide: Why the Flames and Oilers would (and wouldn’t) trade Sam Bennett for Jesse Puljujarvi
  • New Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • New Jonathan Willis: What the Oilers’ 2020 cap situation suggests about Ken Holland’s master plan.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With free agency all but over, Oilers’ Ken Holland has tough work ahead on the trade front
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Is there anyone left in free agency who can help the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
  • Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

TIPPETT’S FINAL ARIZONA DEFENSE

This is 2016-17 and it looks exactly as expected. OEL is fencing against the world’s best swordsman every night while walking a tightrope over the Grand Canyon. This defense allowed 260 goals and finished 33 points behind the Oilers that season. Tippett cobbled together a top-4 until management sent Stone away. Credit as well for recognizing Chychrun at age 18.

OILERS DEFENSE 2018-19

McLellan and Hitchcock relied on four men throughout the year, it’s quite possible we see more of the same this coming season. What I’d like to see is another puck mover in the top-4D, and I do hope Tippett gives Matt Benning more chores against elites.

Some things worth watching: Will Tippett run with Klefbom-Larsson as top pair, or will Nurse get some time with Larsson? Who is the second pairing RH blue? It could be Russell, probably is Russell, but Jones is very mobile and has played RH side. Joel Persson, Ethan Bear and Evan Bouchard would seem to be applying for third pair but will Tippett see something in one of them? And of course my man Benning. If he played 350 minutes against elites, could he handle it? One true thing: Oscar Klefbom is vitally important to this hockey club.

Kent Wilson is one of my favourite writers and I enjoyed writing this piece with him. In drilling down on the young careers of both men, the Bennett-for-Puljujarvi idea has merit, but the downside is enormous. The Flames have been far better than the Oilers in identifying talent over these past few years and young JP is going to be highly motivated wherever he goes. A fascinating idea.

LUCIC FOR NEAL

Two things: We’re past all bonuses now (right?) so if this deal is going to drop now is the time. Why wait? Also, a few people talking about Edmonton having to sweeten the deal because of ML’s contract. I’m not certain a sweetener is reasonable. You?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

If we get a Lucic trade today that will change everything. At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we’ll be joined by Ben Kramer, fantasy analyst for Daily Roto and CFL, plus Laura Armstrong of the Toronto Star. Lots of CFL and MLB and you know we’ll talk Oilers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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156 Responses to "Player Usage"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tippett said he’ll probably watch about 25 of the Oilers games from last year over the course of the summer.

    Sounds like he’s talked to many of the players already.

    Good stuff.

    I wonder who the last member of the coaching staff is going to be? I expect we’ll here shortly.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I believe Tippett has alluded to being in favor of leftie/rightie generally and, recall, his very first verbal as an Oiler head coach spoke included an “analytics story” about a d-man that spends 75% of the time in his own zone vs. 25% – it was somewhat of a description of Kris Russell.

    I think Tippett will want to play Russell at 3LD and, yes, it seems Matt Benning would be the choice to step up to 2RD.

    Yes, this has been tried the last few years with uneven results.

    Matty B. is getting to the age where, if he’s going to become more than a 3RD, its getting to be time – the numbers are favorable and my eye test on Matt is better than most.

    Lets do this Matty!

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lucic for Neal is such a win for Edmonton that I can’t imagine Treliving pulling that trigger unless there is a material material sweetener or serious retainment.

    Yup, Jeal was pretty much as bad as Lucic was last year (well, offensively at least, I don’t know if Neal showed a complete inability to take a pass at the blueline from a d-man, pivot and move the puck up ice).

    With that said, Neal fell off the cliff for one year whereas Lucic has been 4th line/replacement level at 5 on 5 for three straight years now. I would think that leads to a greater chance of a Neal bounce-back than a Lucic.

    Then we get to the contracts and (1) Neal’s contract does not have any trade protection (the lack of a NMC takes away all expansion draft protection risk)_ and (2) Neal’s contract has zero signing bonuses so the buyout structure is normal – buyouts still suck but at least its not “buyout proof”.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think that Pulujuarvi for Bennett makes some sense for both teams. I think the Oilers take on more risk – I think we essentially know what Bennett is – I think he’s got a bit more offence but, for the most part, we know what he is. Jesse, of course, while much less established, has the potential of “popping”, which is definitely not out of the realm of reasonable possibility, and becoming a much more material offensive player.

    The flames would save a few million bucks, which is key for them right now, but would lose a solid piece from the middle of their roster.

    The Oilers would gain a solid piece for the middle of the roster – speed, tenacity, some skill, pedigree, etc. Some top 6 upside still.

    I wish that Bennett was a PK guy, would make me a bit more comfortable.

    Of course, I don’t see it happening but, taking away EDM/CGY, it does make some sense for both teams.

  5. Primetime says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lucic for Neal is such a win for Calgary that I can’t imagine Treliving pulling that trigger unless there is a material material sweetener or serious retainmnet.

    Hey OP,

    You posted this at the end of last thread. Reading the rest of your comment, I think you mean Lucic for Neal is such a win for Edmonton? That’s why Oilers would have to sweeten for Treliving to make trade?

  6. GMB3 says:

    Those puckIQ #’s for Nurse are ugly. That 7 million dollar contract is going to be awful.

  7. Nit64 says:

    LT,

    There was talk earlier off an off season migration to a new provider. Still planned?

    I’m getting this warning from Chrome today:

    “This page is trying to load scripts from unauthenticated sources: The site you try to visit isn’t secure.”

  8. Primetime says:

    Hey LT,

    You mentioned you would like to see another puck-moving D in the top 4. I know that it wasn’t listed as a priority by Holland at this time, however, I was also thinking about what possibilities there were for this. Obviously people have preached patience with Bouchard perhaps only a year away. But what if Bouchard isn’t in the plans?

    Hear me out. Someone out there (The 4th period?) mentioned that Bouchard was being “shopped”. There were many scouts (not just Button) that weren’t super high on Bouchard. Holland is a scout at heart and from all accounts is involved in at least the early picks. He passed on Bouchard in the draft in 2018, is it possible he is not as enamored by the prospect as the past regime?

    The only way he would trade him though, hopefully, would be to accelerate the process right now, say for a more established RHD. Perhaps Risto? (Buffalo is stockpiling RHD puck movers like it’s going out of style). I suppose he could trade for a forward as well.

    Any thoughts on this regime not loving Bouchard and willing to trade at perhaps his peak value (now)?

  9. Primetime says:

    Or another scenario could be to offer Bouchard to Detroit for his choice Zadina.
    Then trade Jesse to Buffalo and the “Eurowhisperer” Kruger for one of the RHD (Risto, Montour, Jokiharju)

    Would we be a better team?

  10. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Would Klefbom paired with Benning help the situation at all on the second pair? I’m OK with Nurse on the top pair and hope he keeps improving like he has so far. Russel on the 3rd pair on his correct side is OK with me too, but I’m not sure Jones should be the one on his off-side if they make up our third pair. Maybe Russell-Perrson on the third pair to start.

    Man we are gonna have a logjam on defence in the next 12 months. A good problem to have, but it needs to be addressed.

  11. npanciroli says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I believe Tippett has alluded to being in favor of leftie/rightie generally and, recall, his very first verbal as an Oiler head coach spoke included an “analytics story” about a d-man that spends 75% of the time in his own zone vs. 25% – it was somewhat of a description of Kris Russell.

    I think Tippett will want to play Russell at 3LD and, yes, it seems Matt Benning would be the choice to step up to 2RD.

    Yes, this has been tried the last few years with uneven results.

    Matty B. is getting to the age where, if he’s going to become more than a 3RD, its getting to be time – the numbers are favorable and my eye test on Matt is better than most.

    Lets do this Matty!

    I get this feeling as well.

  12. Coiler says:

    Primetime:
    Or another scenario could be to offer Bouchard to Detroit for his choice Zadina.
    Then trade Jesse to Buffalo and the “Eurowhisperer” Kruger for one of the RHD (Risto, Montour, Jokiharju)

    Would we be a better team?

    It’s funny you mentioned Detroit because I’ve felt that Holland would have made a deal by now to pluck someone significant from his former organization. Jurko (sp?) didn’t really count in my mind. I personally wouldn’t make that move with Bouchard as everything around him stats wise seems to suggest he’s going to be a keeper. If the return was right however..I guess anything is possible.

    I also wouldn’t touch Risto with a ten foot poll. Buffalo is aching to get rid of him. His numbers are bad, his positional play is bad and he’s got a bad contract to boot. Think Nikita Nikitin bad. I’ve never understood the love affair people have had with this player and I don’t think the Oilers would improve at all with him in their line-up.

    I’d be on board with Montour though and pass on Jokiharju. The Blackhawks, with their aged defence, said no thanks to him and took on a regressing player in Nylander.

  13. GMB3 says:

    Primetime:
    Or another scenario could be to offer Bouchard to Detroit for his choice Zadina.
    Then trade Jesse to Buffalo and the “Eurowhisperer” Kruger for one of the RHD (Risto, Montour, Jokiharju)

    Would we be a better team?

    Yeah but Yzerman just passed up on some good forwards for a RHD in the prior draft, so I highly doubt he would trade his best prospect for another

  14. GMB3 says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    Would Klefbom paired with Benning help the situation at all on the second pair?I’m OK with Nurse on the top pair and hope he keeps improving like he has so far.Russel on the 3rd pair on his correct side is OK with me too, but I’m not sure Jones should be the one on his off-side if they make up our third pair.Maybe Russell-Perrson on the third pair to start.

    Man we are gonna have a logjam on defence in the next 12 months.A good problem to have, but it needs to be addressed.

    I actually think that is a great idea. I’m surprised McLellan didn’t run that as he kind of ran more of a “top 4”, than a top pairing, second pairing, approach. Larsson was good enough to help keep Nurses head above water two seasons ago, and Klefbom is probably a better match for Benning. I’m not sure either Benning or Nurse are true second pairing guys, but I think both could play there if they had a better partner

  15. godot10 says:

    I use a different crystal ball…

    Nurse Larsson (will get every D-zone start)
    Klefbom, Persson
    Jones, Benning (maybe Lagesson instead of Jones)
    Russell

  16. Coiler says:

    If Lucic is indeed traded for Neal then I guess his feud with Smith will be maintained for the foreseeable future. I would however, have an absolute shit if Lucic did something to take McDavid out. Things would turn ugly.

  17. texmex says:

    Coiler:
    If Lucic is indeed traded for Neal then I guess his feud with Smith will be maintained for the foreseeable future. I would however, have an absolute shit if Lucic did something to take McDavid out. Things would turn ugly.

    I wonder if Looch would decline a trade to Calgary for that reason? He didn’t like playing against LA because he had a lot of buddies on the team.

  18. russ99 says:

    Russell on his natural left side makes a lot of sense, he was more effective offensively last year on that side, and should be better on zone exits without having to backhand the puck so much.

    Benning is poor in coverage away from the wall once the zone is gained, I doubt a defensive coach would trust a poor defensive player with prime minutes, nor would he use him to prop up a younger player, no matter how good the possession stats look.

    Guess everyone forgot about all those bad odd man breaks with Klefbom – Benning last year.

  19. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Tippett watched 25 oilers games from last season & has officially resigned as oilers head coach. News conference at 11

  20. Pescador says:

    GMB3:
    Those puckIQ #’s for Nurse are ugly. That 7 million dollar contract is going to be awful.

    Chiarelli contract $7.25M x 8 years.
    Since next season’s roster is shaping up to be a lottery team.
    Let’s hope Nurse is a little shy in the points department, but conversely vastly improves his defensive game under coach Tippett.
    That way Holland can offer $6 over 5, which still seems high

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Primetime: Hey OP,

    You posted this at the end of last thread.Reading the rest of your comment, I think you mean Lucic for Neal is such a win for Edmonton?That’s why Oilers would have to sweeten for Treliving to make trade?

    Correct – win for Edmonton, massive win!

    My mistake and thank you.

  22. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: New coach, a blossoming farm team, some electric juniors turning pro and six free agent forwards. Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs.

    https://theathletic.com/1080224/2019/07/18/looking-ahead-to-oilers-training-camp-35-players-for-23-jobs/

    Great write up. This section caught my eye:

    “Markus Granlund will be a key part of Holland’s reworked bottom-six forward group, providing offence, penalty killing and solid checking while also filling a mentor role. It’s a big job for the veteran.”

    Faber over at Canucks Army indicates that he’s a poor bet for the role indicated:

    “… while mostly being used in a bottom six role with time on the second powerplay unit and the second penalty kill unit as well.

    The biggest problem is that though he is capable of helping with those two spots he shouldn’t be the first option, even for the second units. Granlund is adequate when it comes to special teams but he is nothing to write home about. His usage on this team is forced because of a lack of elite talent which creates open spots for a guy like Granlund to be pushed into roles that he likely won’t excel in at the NHL level…

    In the end Granlund is another bottom six player on a team that has too many bottom six players.”

    Granlund was an RFA. The Canucks didn’t bother qualifying him.

  23. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: You used the fact that Chiasson has only had one plus goal scoring season out of 6 as an argument against him, however, at the same time, the fact that Connolly has had one season out of 8 with over 27 points isn’t a valid point when discussing his top 6 abilities?Really?

    He’s had one season with over 27 points – he started in the league 8 years ago.

    I compared goals to goals, unlike you.

  24. Nit64 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Tippett watched 25 oilers games from last season & has officially resigned as oilers head coach. News conference at 11

    They sent him Bakersfield tapes as well and asked him to watch those first to try to avoid that result.

  25. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    GMB3:
    Those puckIQ #’s for Nurse are ugly. That 7 million dollar contract is going to be awful.

    That negotiation is going to be ugly.

  26. Pescador says:

    godot10:
    I use a different crystal ball…

    Nurse Larsson (will get every D-zone start)
    Klefbom, Persson
    Jones, Benning (maybe Lagesson instead of Jones)
    Russell

    I think your crystal ball is full of crystal meth.
    Kidding! 😁
    Internal replacement for Russell’s poor play would be a godsend

  27. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3:
    Those puckIQ #’s for Nurse are ugly. That 7 million dollar contract is going to be awful.

    When did he sign an extension?

  28. ArmchairGM says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    Would Klefbom paired with Benning help the situation at all on the second pair?I’m OK with Nurse on the top pair and hope he keeps improving like he has so far.Russel on the 3rd pair on his correct side is OK with me too, but I’m not sure Jones should be the one on his off-side if they make up our third pair.Maybe Russell-Perrson on the third pair to start.

    Man we are gonna have a logjam on defence in the next 12 months.A good problem to have, but it needs to be addressed.

    It’s an interesting discussion. I prefer

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Benning
    Lagesson/Jones – Russell or Russell – Persson

  29. bwar says:

    I really hope Tippett has some new views on player deployment and comes into camp with the mindset of putting the best group of players on the ice he can. There will be numerous roster decisions to be made throughout training camp and Tippett seeing something in Chychrun at such a young age gives me hope he will be capable of putting everything aside to help select the best player for each role. I understand we are short of players at the top end of the roster and overloaded with skaters for the bottom end (20 players in the third/fourth line range at my last count) but putting the best player in each specific role will go a long way to making this team better than it was a year ago. I hope the players all buy into what Tippett is selling and we see an improved cohesive team this fall.

  30. bwar says:

    If Kris Russell isn’t in the long term plan, is this the season to push him into the 7D spot? Give the rookies some time alongside Russell to get comfortable with being an NHL regular, then push Russell to pressbox and bring up another rookie. Or even just dive straight into the season with Lagesson-Jones as the third pair.

  31. GMB3 says:

    Pescador: Chiarelli contract $7.25M x 8 years.
    Since next season’s roster is shaping up to be a lottery team.
    Let’s hope Nurse is a little shy in the points department, but conversely vastly improves his defensive game under coach Tippett.
    That way Holland can offer $6 over 5, which still seems high

    If he gets 25-30 points and improves his D, he might be worth the contract. I would have rather seen him dealt for an Ehlers type player and kept Sekera, but we are here now.

  32. ArmchairGM says:

    Coiler: I also wouldn’t touch Risto with a ten foot poll. Buffalo is aching to get rid of him. His numbers are bad, his positional play is bad and he’s got a bad contract to boot. Think Nikita Nikitin bad. I’ve never understood the love affair people have had with this player and I don’t think the Oilers would improve at all with him in their line-up.

    Agreed. Why the love? Four consecutive 40+ point campaigns, 6’4, 24-years-old, right shot, good skater. He check all the boxes, no? I think a lot of people think he’ll blossom in a different situation, I don’t know enough about the player to have an opinion on that though. Bottom line: he can’t defend and gives up far more than he gets. At $5.4M we simply cannot afford him, but even if we could I’d be very wary.

  33. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: When did he sign an extension?

    Didn’t you know that I have a crystal ball

  34. Jethro Tull says:

    Drai – McDavid – 4th Liner
    4th Liner – RNH – 4th Liner
    4th Liner – 4th Liner – 4th Liner
    AHLer – AHLer – Rookie

    1/2 pairing D – 2 pairing D
    2 pairing D – #7
    #7 – #7

    2 x aging Goalies, 1 not a sure thing being paid sure thing money, other decrepit.

    Depth – Some good D prospects
    Overage AHLers

    This is us!

  35. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3: If he gets 25-30 points and improves his D, he might be worth the contract. I would have rather seen him dealt for an Ehlers type player and kept Sekera, but we are here now.

    Evolving Hockey has Nurse at 5 x $5.5M after last season. Of course that will go up if he repeats or improves his numbers.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15E1qqh3OfHvvhbv_pICfKT7VR1jJEVhWQOyKviWLN54/edit#gid=457074578

  36. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3: Didn’t you know that I have a crystal ball

    Great! Do you do lottery numbers? I’ll be right over with a case of beer!

  37. ArmchairGM says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Drai – McDavid – 4th Liner
    4th Liner – RNH – 4th Liner
    4th Liner – 4th Liner – 4th Liner
    AHLer – AHLer – Rookie

    1/2 pairing D – 2 pairing D
    2 pairing D – #7
    #7 – #7

    2 x aging Goalies, 1 not a sure thing being paid sure thing money, other decrepit.

    Depth – Some good D prospectsOverage AHLers

    This is us!

    This is us.

    Here we come! https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/296697/alexis-lafreniere

  38. bwar says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Drai – McDavid – 4th Liner
    4th Liner – RNH – 4th Liner
    4th Liner – 4th Liner – 4th Liner
    AHLer – AHLer – Rookie

    1/2 pairing D – 2 pairing D
    2 pairing D – #7
    #7 – #7

    2 x aging Goalies, 1 not a sure thing being paid sure thing money, other decrepit.

    Depth – Some good D prospectsOverage AHLers

    This is us!

    I think I’d peg Chiasson as a third line guy and Benning as at least a 6. Improves the outlook greatly.

  39. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: Evolving Hockey has Nurse at 5 x $5.5M after last season. Of course that will go up if he repeats or improves his numbers.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15E1qqh3OfHvvhbv_pICfKT7VR1jJEVhWQOyKviWLN54/edit#gid=457074578

    His counting stats improved last year, but his underlying metrics were worse. Obviously Russell isn’t an ideal partner, but I’m not sure how to feel about his lack of success even in that context. I see him touted as a future top pairing guy on this blog, but I don’t see it.

    5.5 seems reasonable, but it also doesn’t seem like a value contract for a guy who clearly couldn’t drag a second pairing above water.

  40. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: Great! Do you do lottery numbers? I’ll be right over with a case of beer!

    I’ll let you know how my picks go for the Open this weekend first

  41. Trapper42 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Drai – McDavid – 4th Liner
    4th Liner – RNH – 4th Liner
    4th Liner – 4th Liner – 4th Liner
    AHLer – AHLer – Rookie

    1/2 pairing D – 2 pairing D
    2 pairing D – #7
    #7 – #7

    2 x aging Goalies, 1 not a sure thing being paid sure thing money, other decrepit.

    Depth – Some good D prospectsOverage AHLers

    This is us!

    That was just an awesome take on the current state of affairs of the Oil 🙂
    #herecometheOilers

  42. godot10 says:

    bwar:
    If Kris Russell isn’t in the long term plan, is this the season to push him into the 7D spot?Give the rookies some time alongside Russell to get comfortable with being an NHL regular, then push Russell to pressbox and bring up another rookie.Or even just dive straight into the season with Lagesson-Jones as the third pair.

    Playing a rookie with Russell will be the fastest way to destroy the rookie. Russell plays defense idiosyncratically. He is the worst option to play a young D with.

  43. bwar says:

    godot10: Playing a rookie with Russell will be the fastest way to destroy the rookie.Russell plays defense idiosyncratically. He is the worst option to play a young D with.

    I guess that means you prefer option two then.

  44. Faustkarz says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Tippett watched 25 oilers games from last season & has officially resigned as oilers head coach. News conference at 11

    I never post but this got me lol

  45. Eh Team says:

    godot10: Playing a rookie with Russell will be the fastest way to destroy the rookie. Russell plays defense idiosyncratically. He is the worst option to play a young D with.

    Oilers would be so much better with Russell and Lucic off the roster (even if they have to take the cap hits of the two). Likely better performance from their internal replacements (say Benson and Bouchard) and the young guys getting valuable minutes.

  46. Ribs says:

    I’m just imagining Tkachuk running around cheap shotting Oilers players and then Lucic coming behind him and destroying anyone who steps up to defend them. Sounds like fun times.

  47. OmJo says:

    bwar:
    If Kris Russell isn’t in the long term plan, is this the season to push him into the 7D spot?Give the rookies some time alongside Russell to get comfortable with being an NHL regular, then push Russell to pressbox and bring up another rookie.Or even just dive straight into the season with Lagesson-Jones as the third pair.

    Just think… by the end of the season, the Oilers might have $10M in cap space locked up in their 13F and 7D. With NMCs (modified in Russell’s case).

    Death by ten million cuts.

  48. Durag says:

    Ribs:
    I’m just imagining Tkachuk running around cheap shotting Oilers players and then Lucic coming behind him and destroying anyone who steps up to defend them. Sounds like fun times.

    I’m imagining Neal cracking double digits in goals and it’s glorious.

  49. OmJo says:

    Ribs:
    I’m just imagining Tkachuk running around cheap shotting Oilers players and then Lucic coming behind him and destroying anyone who steps up to defend them. Sounds like fun times.

    Does that Lucic still exist though? I guess if you’re Matheiu Joseph or whatever his name is.

  50. HT Joe says:

    OmJo: Just think… by the end of the season, the Oilers might have $10M in cap space locked up in their 13F and 7D. With NMCs (modified in Russell’s case).

    Death by ten million cuts.

    $10M in cap space… how much did New Jersey give up for Subban again?

  51. deardylan says:

    Catching Walleye from the dock
    Watching the splashes roll off the rocks
    Sather will forever hold a spot inside my soul
    We’d blister in the sun
    We couldn’t wait for night to come
    To hit that rewind button and play some VHS replays

    Singin’
    Sweet Home Stanley Cup

    It’s the simple things in life, like when and where
    We didn’t have no internet
    But man I never will forget that look on Tiks face

    Singin’
    Sweet Home Stanley Cup

    We were discovering different things
    And we were smoking funny things
    Making love out by the lake to our favorite song
    Sipping CC whiskey out the Texas Mickey bottle,
    not thinking ’bout tomorrow

    Singin’
    Sweet Home Stanley Cup

  52. Ribs says:

    OmJo: Does that Lucic still exist though? I guess if you’re Matheiu Joseph or whatever his name is.

    You know as soon as he swaps teams he’ll start scoring or blowing people up. It is the Ex-Oiler way!

  53. Ribs says:

    Durag: I’m imagining Neal cracking double digits in goals and it’s glorious.

    Seems about as likely as Lucic reaching the same heights but alrighty. Dare to dream!

  54. Reja says:

    Ribs: You know as soon as he swaps teams he’ll start scoring or blowing people up. It is the Ex-Oiler way!

    I agree watch what you wish for Oiler fans either trade him out East or compliance buy-out him on the next CBA.

  55. Professor Q says:

    Why oh why are we thinking of Lucic and Puljujärvi to the Flames?

    This seems like a Spy card in Gwent. Which if played poorly can be disastrous.

    You give your opponent extra points, but at least you get to draw an extra card.

  56. OmJo says:

    Ribs: Seems about as likely as Lucic reaching the same heights but alrighty. Dare to dream!

    Is Neal really that bad that it’s unlikely he’ll reach 10+ goals???

  57. GMB3 says:

    Reja: I agree watch what you wish for Oiler fans either trade him out East or compliance buy-out him on the next CBA.

    Lmao let Lucic be a liability in Calgary

  58. Dr. Taboggan says:

    GMB3:
    Those puckIQ #’s for Nurse are ugly. That 7 million dollar contract is going to be awful.

    I know he played with Russell extensively but wow those numbers are bad. I think there is a real chance Nurse is Jack Johnson. Really athletic, gets points, but maybe not that good. If you can trade him for Jeff Carter circa 2011 I think you do it.

  59. Reja says:

    GMB3: Lmao let Lucic be a liability in Calgary

    We don’t trade with Calgary. The flames are one of the weakest teams in the league let’s keep it that way. In fact we signed the only player they had with backbone.The Caps then the Blues gitterbugs and I’m to good to take the body are finish checks or not winning a cup anytime soon.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB:

    I wonder what they would look like the year before where he played substantial time with Adam Larsson as the top pairing and they were very good together – both logging tough minutes together and finishing the season at plus 10 and plus 15 on a non-playoff team.

    Nurse/Russell was awful last year and it was egregious that both coaches refused to break them up.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    CapeBretonOilers:
    Would Klefbom paired with Benning help the situation at all on the second pair?I’m OK with Nurse on the top pair and hope he keeps improving like he has so far.Russel on the 3rd pair on his correct side is OK with me too, but I’m not sure Jones should be the one on his off-side if they make up our third pair.Maybe Russell-Perrson on the third pair to start.

    Man we are gonna have a logjam on defence in the next 12 months.A good problem to have, but it needs to be addressed.

    Nurse/Larsson do have a history of success as a pairing against top comp.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ:

    Guess everyone forgot about all those bad odd man breaks with Klefbom – Benning last year.

    No offence but I don’t think anybody forgot them as I think you may have imagined them.

    Klef/Benning shares 40 minutes of ice together last year – I don’t imagine there were that many odd man break – especially considering, not that it means anything in such a small sample size, all their numbers were highly positive.

  63. bwar says:

    OriginalPouzar: I wonder what they would look like the year before where he played substantial time with Adam Larsson as the top pairing and they were very good together – both logging tough minutes together and finishing the season at plus 10 and plus 15 on a non-playoff team.

    Nurse/Russell was awful last year and it was egregious that both coaches refused to break them up.

    Maybe the next coach will split them up or maybe the one after that…

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I compared goals to goals, unlike you.

    You posit that Chiasson has one year scoring goals and that is an anomaly.

    You posit that while, Connolly has one season with more than 27 points (in an 8 year NHL career), he is top 6.

    Its clear that you have you opinion and NOTHING, even facts based off argument you use for other players, with change that.

    Chiasson’s one plus season of goal scoring is an anomaly yes Connolly’s one season over 27 points is not.

  65. London Jon says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lucic for Neal is such a win for Edmonton that I can’t imagine Treliving pulling that trigger unless there is a material material sweetener or serious retainment.

    Yup, Jeal was pretty much as bad as Lucic was last year (well, offensively at least, I don’t know if Neal showed a complete inability to take a pass at the blueline from a d-man, pivot and move the puck up ice).

    With that said, Neal fell off the cliff for one year whereas Lucic has been 4th line/replacement level at 5 on 5 for three straight years now. I would think that leads to a greater chance of a Neal bounce-back than a Lucic.

    Then we get to the contracts and (1) Neal’s contract does not have any trade protection (the lack of a NMC takes away all expansion draft protection risk)_ and (2) Neal’s contract has zero signing bonuses so the buyout structure is normal – buyouts still suck but at least its not “buyout proof”.

    The main reason I like Lucic for Neal is that I think Neal will mesh well with Connor or Nuge

  66. Ribs says:

    OmJo: Is Neal really that bad that it’s unlikely he’ll reach 10+ goals???

    Is Lucic?

  67. GMB3 says:

    Ribs: Is Lucic?

    … yes?

    Neal is not nearly as far removed from being a top 6 scoring winger as Lucic.

  68. Revolved says:

    Yesterday I commented that one way Tippett could make a big difference for the line up by giving his top players more rest. Bulging Twine and OriginalPouzar mentioned this the other day, and Woodguy has been talk about it with regard to goalies, but rest is important for athletes and the Oilers have been riding their top guys far too hard.

    The average total TOI for the top 90 NHL forwards last year was 19.5 minutes. The Oilers in this sample, McDavid (22.8), Draisaitl (22.6) and RNH (20.1), were all above average. By the end of an 82 game season, this works out to McDavid playing 14.0, Draisaitl 12.9 and RNH 2.5 more entire games than the average top line forward. Good luck with the playoffs if you make it.

    Notably, the same class of players for the two Cup finalist teams averaged 18.9 (Boston) and 19.0 (St. Louis) minutes per game during the regular season, both below average. It’s easy to argue that these teams were deeper and thus they could afford it, but St.Louis had a lot of catching up to do during the regular season and still didn’t ride their horses into the ground. I thought this would just be a Mclellan thing, but Hitchcock did the same thing. Please Tippett, do better.

  69. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM: This is us.

    Here we come! https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/296697/alexis-lafreniere

    ONE MAJOR injury away from this being reality …

    If Connor, Drai or Oscar go down for more than 20 Games, Oil could be bottom feeders ….

    I think everything will have to break the right way for this team to hit 85 Points ….

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    bwar:
    If Kris Russell isn’t in the long term plan, is this the season to push him into the 7D spot?Give the rookies some time alongside Russell to get comfortable with being an NHL regular, then push Russell to pressbox and bring up another rookie.Or even just dive straight into the season with Lagesson-Jones as the third pair.

    I would posit that Russell isn’t in the long term plans, however, if him in the lineup (over a rookie) gives the team a better chance to win on any given night then, absolutely, Russell needs to play.

    That may not be the case but, if it is….

  71. Revolved says:

    On Neal and Bennett vs Lucic and Puljujarvi. First of all, what a sad discussion to be having given the quality of players, but here are their RelT metrics and team ranks (>200 min played, /14 for Calgary, /17 for Edmonton) in the order listed above:

    RelT CF%: -3.18 (12th), +0.69 (9th), 3.81 (3rd), -1.45 (12th)
    RelT GF%: -9.38 (13th), -8.67 (12th), 1.59 (8th), -11.71 (14th)
    RelT xGF%: -6.22 (13th), +1.01 (9th), 3.12 (3rd), -5.46 (16th)

    So, although the Flames were clearly a better team last year, I would not trade Lucic for Neal. Given the venom, I am still waiting for a first hand report of Lucic having kicked someone’s dog. I would consider Bennett for Puljujarvi.

  72. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: You posit that Chiasson has one year scoring goals and that is an anomaly.

    You posit that while, Connolly has one season with more than 27 points (in an 8 year NHL career), he is top 6.

    Its clear that you have you opinion and NOTHING, even facts based off argument you use for other players, with change that.

    Chiasson’s one plus season of goal scoring is an anomaly yes Connolly’s one season over 27 points is not.

    You ever considered criminal law? Your arguments are weak, but you love defending the indefensible.

    You’re AGAIN putting words in my mouth. I didn’t write that Connolly was top-6 but that he is a better option for top-6 than Chiasson is – and I stand by that. By whatever metric you choose, Brett Connolly is a better player than Alex Chiasson.

    You don’t argue facts, you beat on straw men. You imagine I said something that I didn’t and then you attack what I didn’t say. If you aren’t interested in or capable of having an intelligent discourse, I simply won’t respond to you any more.

    Have a great day.

  73. Revolved says:

    I will follow up my comment on rest by saying that I think the best way to reduce McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH’s ice time is to have them centre their own lines. This is not a novel suggestion, but if you are down by a goal in the third period it will make a big difference to not have these three over 20 minutes already. At that point, by all means, put them all on the ice together and go for it.

    The Oilers actually had a good run until Klefbom got hurt last year, and it was on the back of Reider – Draisaitl – Chiasson. This year I would just replace Reider with Granlund. I would also have RNH with Lucic on a tough minutes line, as this was a big part of our playoff run a couple years ago.

  74. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar: You posit that while, Connolly has one season with more than 27 points (in an 8 year NHL career), he is top 6.

    Kind of disingenuous to say this, no? He had 27 points in 70 games. Before that, 25 in 71 and 23 in 66. Very likely he would have crossed 30 points in those season.

    That’s like saying both players have only broken 27pts twice in their careers.

  75. JJS says:

    One thing that has gone unspoken to date – what if McDavid has lost a step with his injury?

    Or it takes him 3 months to get up to speed?

    We are predicting a rather mediocre season with him at his best.

    Yikes

  76. bwar says:

    Revolved,

    Running three deep what are your three forward lines?

    Lucic-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Granlund-Draisaitl-Chiasson
    Khaira-RNH-Kassian

    Would be great if we could do that and run a very limited fourth line, more like some extras who rotate through other lines as needed or take every 7th or 10th shift type thing. Not sure our wingers help much for accomplishing this, we are having a hard enough time filling out a competent top 6 when Draisaitl is a winger. I’d be really hoping Nygard, Benson and Marody magically were all amazing in the NHL this year.

  77. OmJo says:

    Ribs: Is Lucic?

    The guy who had 1 or 2 goals in almost a calendar year? I think Neal has a better chance of breaking OPs 12G, 30PT mark for Lucic.

  78. London Jon says:

    OmJo: The guy who had 1 or 2 goals in almost a calendar year? I think Neal has a better chance of breaking OPs 12G, 30PT mark for Lucic.

    What I found amazing – in a bad way – last year was Lucic’s total inability to take and make a pass.

    So many plays and breakouts and transitions died with him

  79. who says:

    Reja: I agree watch what you wish for Oiler fans either trade him out East or compliance buy-out him on the next CBA.

    I’m no fan of James Neal. But I would trade Lucic for him even up just for the buyout upgrade.
    They are both bad players, but I can at least tolerate the Neal buyout. And let’s face it, a buyout is the only way you are getting rid of Lucic right now.

  80. Primetime says:

    bwar:
    Revolved,

    Running three deep what are your three forward lines?

    Lucic-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Granlund-Draisaitl-Chiasson
    Khaira-RNH-Kassian

    Khaira/Benson-McDavid-Kassian
    Granlund-Draisaitl-Chiasson
    Lucic-RNH-Archibald

    Man, a single scoring winger would transform that into being actually plausible….

  81. who says:

    ArmchairGM: You ever considered criminal law? Your arguments are weak, but you love defending the indefensible.

    You’re AGAIN putting words in my mouth. I didn’t write that Connolly was top-6 but that he is a better option for top-6 than Chiasson is – and I stand by that. By whatever metric you choose, Brett Connolly is a better player than Alex Chiasson.

    You don’t argue facts, you beat on straw men. You imagine I said something that I didn’t and then you attack what I didn’t say. If you aren’t interested in or capable of having an intelligent discourse, I simply won’t respond to you any more.

    Have a great day.

    I agree. Connelly is a better option for top 6 than Chiasson.
    But at what cost and what term? Florida signed him for 3.5 x4. The verbal from the agent was that Holland wasn’t even given the chance to match, or better, that offer. I guess we can assume Holland didn’t offer as much. Or maybe the player wanted more to come here. Who knows? You certainly don’t.
    And yet you are already calling Holland a failure because he didn’t sign a free agent like Connelly, and instead opted to shop the bargain bin for less term and money.
    I prefer to reserve judgement for at least a year. Holland may fail in Edmonton, but calling him a failure after 2 months, with the mess he inherited, seems very premature.

  82. Side says:

    who: I agree. Connelly is a better option for top 6 thanChiasson.
    But at what cost and what term? Florida signed him for 3.5 x4. The verbal from the agent was that Holland wasn’t even given the chance to match,or better, that offer. I guess we can assume Holland didn’t offer as much. Or maybe the player wanted more to come here. Who knows? You certainly don’t.
    And yet you are already calling Holland a failure because he didn’t sign a free agent like Connelly, and instead opted to shop the bargain bin for less term and money.
    I prefer to reserve judgement for at least a year. Holland may fail in Edmonton, but calling him a failure after 2 months, with the mess he inherited,seems very premature.

    I believe Holland offered the same amount but for 1 year less than what Florida offered, but they both offered the same $$ amount. The agent didn’t bother going back to Holland or anyone else for a counter.

  83. Revolved says:

    bwar,

    I think it’s still tough to say how high up the lineup a lot of the new guys can play, but at this point I would favour:

    Khaira – McDavid – Gagner
    Granlund – Draisaitl – Chiasson
    Lucic – RNH – Kassian
    Nygard/Gambardella – Cave/Haas – Currie/Archibald

  84. OmJo says:

    Revolved:
    bwar,

    I think it’s still tough to say how high up the lineup a lot of the new guys can play, but at this point I would favour:

    Khaira – McDavid – Gagner
    Granlund – Draisaitl – Chiasson
    Lucic – RNH – Kassian
    Nygard/Gambardella – Cave/Haas – Currie/Archibald

    The “Ship Nuge out of Town” lineup lol

  85. PennersPancakes says:

    Revolved,

    Only change Id really want is another speedster with McDavid. Khaira is average and Gagner probably below average now. I wouldnt mind swapping out one for Granlund if hes got wheels or try Kassian again.

    I do think keeping Chia and Drai together is important. And if they’re going to play Lucic in the top 9 math says it should be Nuge. Heres hoping Benson plays well enough to enter the discussion.

  86. PennersPancakes says:

    OmJo: The “Ship Nuge out of Town” lineup lol

    Yeah he wouldnt be setting any more career highs on that line unfortunately.

  87. Reja says:

    who: I’m no fan of James Neal. But I would trade Lucic for him even up just for the buyout upgrade.
    They are both bad players, but I can at least tolerate the Neal buyout. And let’s face it,a buyout is the only way you are getting rid of Lucic right now.

    If Neal doesn’t score this year he’s finished Neal brings nothing else to the table but putting the biscuit in the net. Seriously I believe Lucic still has a couple years left in the tank of being effective sadly probably not with the Oilers but you never know with Tippett.

  88. Revolved says:

    I would love for Puljujarvi to be McDavid’s RW for a decade, but that is seeming unlikely right now. Maybe a rookie really shows up next year, but I am weary of having them face the best.

    OMJO,

    Getting our best players more points will not make them as happy as winning. RNH, in particular, seems a good soldier who would be happy for his team to stop sucking regardless of the role he plays.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: You ever considered criminal law? Your arguments are weak, but you love defending the indefensible.

    You’re AGAIN putting words in my mouth. I didn’t write that Connolly was top-6 but that he is a better option for top-6 than Chiasson is – and I stand by that. By whatever metric you choose, Brett Connolly is a better player than Alex Chiasson.

    You don’t argue facts, you beat on straw men. You imagine I said something that I didn’t and then you attack what I didn’t say. If you aren’t interested in or capable of having an intelligent discourse, I simply won’t respond to you any more.

    Have a great day.

    I never ever said anything about Chiasson being better than Connolly nor compared the two players – talk about putting words in people’s months.

    I simply noticed you using the fact that Chiasson has only been a plus goal scorer once in his 6 years to prove that he is not as good as last season. I saw that and simply retorted that Connolly has been over 27 points once in his 8 year NHL career and wonder how you are of the position that he is a top 6 winger when he’s only come anywhere near top 6 production once in 8 years. Its seems a one off is an anomaly for a player you don’t like but not for one you do.

    I never compared the two player to each other but simply was pointing out the major inconsistency in how you use stats for these two players.

    Can you seriously not see how obvious this is?

    Oh, come Mr. Chair, you spend an entire week prior to July 1 posting how your believe Connolly is a top 6 player and the only reason he hasn’t produced at those level are opportunity. You position on Connolly as a top 6 forward is well documented.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Revolved:
    I will follow up my comment on rest by saying that I think the best way to reduce McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH’s ice time is to have them centre their own lines. This is not a novel suggestion, but if you are down by a goal in the third period it will make a big difference to not have these three over 20 minutes already. At that point, by all means, put them all on the ice together and go for it.

    The Oilers actually had a good run until Klefbom got hurt last year, and it was on the back of Reider – Draisaitl – Chiasson. This year I would just replace Reider with Granlund. I would also have RNH with Lucic on a tough minutes line, as this was a big part of our playoff run a couple years ago.

    Yup – we’re in complete agreeance.

    Chiasson scored the majority of his 5 on 5 goals during his heater with Drai and Rieder and went ice cold when placed with McDavid (as did McDavid – he has like zero ES points in 4 games).

    Assuming Chiasson is going to be in the top 6, it should be with Drai but without McDavid – Granlund seems like a decent option there (he did have 19 goals playing with the Sedins a few years back) – Jurco is wildcard in that spot for me.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo: Kind of disingenuous to say this, no? He had 27 points in 70 games. Before that, 25 in 71 and 23 in 66. Very likely he would have crossed 30 points in those season.

    That’s like saying both players have only broken 27pts twice in their careers.

    Its not indigenous, we are talking about a couple of points – its not like he scored 25 points in 43 games one year and I’m not giving him credit.

    I’m also not comparing the two players even a lick. I’m comparing one poster using a one-off one-year high goal total to argue against one player without acknowledging the one-off one-year high point total for the player he is arguing for. He’s using both sides of the same thing.

    15, 15, 25, 23, 27, 46

    6 (in 7 games), 13, 11, 8, 12, 8, 22

    One year stands out for both players and, in fact, I can argue, looking at those numbers, that Connolly’s point total this past year was more of an anomaly that Chiasson’s goal total.

    Again, Connolly is the better player, I’m not even arguing against that. I’m just highly confused how the anomaly season is only allowed to be used for one of the two players.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Revolved:
    bwar,

    I think it’s still tough to say how high up the lineup a lot of the new guys can play, but at this point I would favour:

    Khaira – McDavid – Gagner
    Granlund – Draisaitl – Chiasson
    Lucic – RNH – Kassian
    Nygard/Gambardella – Cave/Haas – Currie/Archibald

    Lucic/Nuge had a 68% goal share in 211 minutes last year – running 3C, this makes sense (RNH/Lucic, Dria/Chiasson, McDavid/Puljujarvi) as pairs. I’m not sure if I’m kidding or not with Jesse.

  93. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    deardylan,

    Love it!

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo: The “Ship Nuge out of Town” lineup lol

    in 211 minutes together last year, Nuge and Lucic had a 68% goal share (13/6).

    In 900 plus minutes with Lucic, Nuge was at 41% and in 712 minutes without Nuge, Lucic was at 34%

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2018-10-03&td=2019-04-06&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8476454&p2=8473473&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

    Also, in only 18 minutes with Kassian on their line, they scored 4 goals, gave up none.

    That line needs to be tried I’m thinking.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    PennersPancakes:
    Revolved,

    Only change Id really want is another speedster with McDavid. Khaira is average and Gagner probably below average now. I wouldnt mind swapping out one for Granlund if hes got wheels or try Kassian again.

    I think Khaira’s speed is on the plus side of average.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: If Neal doesn’t score this year he’s finishedNeal brings nothing else to the table but putting the biscuit in the net. Seriously I believe Lucic still has a couple years left in the tank of being effective sadly probably not with the Oilers but you never know with Tippett.

    Lucic has brought nothing for two years and nothing at even strength for 3.

    No, I don’t believe that getting in and laying a hit on a d-man a second and half after he’s transitioned the puck up the ice is bringing anything of substance – I would posit that was where 75% of hits were.

    Neal was just as bad last year, acknowledged, but its been one year, not 3.

    I’m not sure if Neal has a total inability to take a breakout pass at the blue line, pivot and efficiently move the puck up to a linemate.

    The fact that hoping for a 12G/30P rebound is likely unreasonable due to 3 years of 5 on 5 awful says it all.

    We need a bounce-back from Lucic as unreasonable as it seems. I do like this Lucic/Nuge/Kassian third line – in fact, I”m getting excited about it.

  97. Henry says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Drai – McDavid – 4th Liner
    4th Liner – RNH – 4th Liner
    4th Liner – 4th Liner – 4th Liner
    AHLer – AHLer – Rookie

    1/2 pairing D – 2 pairing D
    2 pairing D – #7
    #7 – #7

    2 x aging Goalies, 1 not a sure thing being paid sure thing money, other decrepit.

    Depth – Some good D prospectsOverage AHLers

    This is us!

    Sure they have been badly mismanaged, but with decent goaltending from the aged, this might be a playoff team. The top horses can pull a lot of weight.

  98. gimme shelter says:

    I agree with Jethro Tull”s lineup. Was not Holland brought in to fix Chiapets problems but has only produced 4th liners.

  99. blainer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lucic has brought nothing for two years and nothing at even strength for 3.

    No, I don’t believe that getting in and laying a hit on a d-man a second and half after he’s transitioned the puck up the ice is bringing anything of substance – I would posit that was where 75% of hits were.

    Neal was just as bad last year, acknowledged, but its been one year, not 3.

    I’m not sure if Neal has a total inability to take a breakout pass at the blue line, pivot and efficiently move the puck up to a linemate.

    The fact that hoping for a 12G/30P rebound is likely unreasonable due to 3 years of 5 on 5 awful says it all.

    We need a bounce-back from Lucic as unreasonable as it seems. I do like this Lucic/Nuge/Kassian third line – in fact, I”m getting excited about it.

    I agree. I think you are on to something there. I just do not see a trade happening for Looch. If he wants out he needs to play his way out of town. I bet he is working hard over the summer to do just that…. Hopefully..

  100. GMB3 says:

    It’s weird that Connolly being a far better producer at even strength wasn’t brought up in the defence of Connolly.

    Also ending contentious posts with “have a great day” is hilarious.

    Via Natural Stat Trick, 5v5 from 16/17 to now

    BC AC

    CF%. 50.3% 47.5%

    GF%. 58%. 47%

    5v5/60. 2.13 1.27

    Not even really close, IMO. Connolly has the edge in PDO but that isn’t surprising as he has a higher career shooting %.

  101. franksterra says:

    GMB3:
    It’s weird that Connolly being a far better producer at even strength wasn’t brought up in the defence of Connolly.

    Also ending contentious posts with “have a great day” is hilarious.

    Via Natural Stat Trick, 5v5 from 16/17 to now

    BCAC

    CF%. 50.3%47.5%

    GF%. 58%.47%

    5v5/60.2.13 1.27

    Not even really close, IMO. Connolly has the edge in PDO but that isn’t surprising as he has a higher career

    have a great day, asshole!

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB:
    It’s weird that Connolly being a far better producer at even strength wasn’t brought up in the defence of Connolly.

    Also ending contentious posts with “have a great day” is hilarious.

    Via Natural Stat Trick, 5v5 from 16/17 to now

    BCAC

    CF%. 50.3%47.5%

    GF%. 58%.47%

    5v5/60.2.13 1.27

    Not even really close, IMO. Connolly has the edge in PDO but that isn’t surprising as he has a higher career shooting %.

    Again, noone was comparing Chiasson to Connolly – well, at least I certainly wasn’t.

    I was solely comparing the use by a poster of a one-off anomaly season as a negative for one forward and not seeing the exact same thing (maybe even moreso) as an anomaly for his coveted player.

  103. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: You ever considered criminal law? Your arguments are weak, but you love defending the indefensible.

    You’re AGAIN putting words in my mouth. I didn’t write that Connolly was top-6 but that he is a better option for top-6 than Chiasson is – and I stand by that. By whatever metric you choose, Brett Connolly is a better player than Alex Chiasson.

    You don’t argue facts, you beat on straw men. You imagine I said something that I didn’t and then you attack what I didn’t say. If you aren’t interested in or capable of having an intelligent discourse, I simply won’t respond to you any more.

    Have a great day.

    While i would agree Connoly is the better player it could be argued that given the 30% higher contract and four year term vs 2 year term the actual value is pretty close to the same. If for example Connoly can no longer hold down a top six roster spot after the two year period you have a 3.5 million bottom six player that is hard to move.The first two years at 30 percent less cap hit makes it, in my view, pretty close in value. The risk with Connoly on a 4 year contract given our current cap crunch would be concerning.

  104. blainer says:

    This is the lineup I would be happy enough to see come together in September.

    Nygard CMD Buchnevich

    Benson Drai Chase

    Lucic RNH Kassian

    Khaira Hass Archie

    Granlund/ Jurco/ Gagner / Cave etc..

    My spidey sense tells me Hass makes the opening lineup as he is Kenny’s boy and he’s a center .. can skate.. and shoot from the looks of the video I’ve watched. Same with Nygard.

    I think Benson makes the team. Bet he is working his ass off on his skating much in the same way Drai did.

    This is still not a playoff team IMO but if this team can stay healthy and get close to league average Goaltending there is a chance.

    I consider the middle six to be close on ice time if indeed Looch RNH and Kassian can click. I do expect that Drai and CMD will be put together so the lines will be fluid depending on in game situations such as PP and when trailing late in games.

    While I’m not optimistic this is as good as it can get IMO. I will admit that there is going to be one hell of a lot of competition for spots and that does help a lot.

    I also believe we will have a powerhouse of a minor league team and will not be surprised if we finish at or near the top of the league if they stay healthy !!

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    I hope everyone has had a chance to read this:

    https://theathletic.com/1082184/2019/07/18/what-the-oilers-2020-cap-situation-suggests-about-ken-hol

    Next off season isn’t looking too hot either.

  106. HT Joe says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I hope everyone has had a chance to read this:

    https://theathletic.com/1082184/2019/07/18/what-the-oilers-2020-cap-situation-suggests-about-ken-hol

    Next off season isn’t looking too hot either.

    I haven’t gotten around to getting an Athletic account yet (sorry LT… life is busy), but next season better look better by far than this offseason.

    If Holland burns the 2019-2020 season, fine. I’ll check out by Halloween and the players have to endure another turd season (thanks Chia).

    But if Holland also burns the 2020-2021 season, he will most certainly alienate Larsson and RNH, and maybe even McDavid at that point.

    Expecting Holland to turn this steamer around in one offseason is unreasonable. But in 15 months, he better damn well have the Oilers moving substantially in the right direction…

  107. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: While i would agree Connoly is the better player it could be argued that given the 30% higher contract and four year term vs 2 year term the actual value is pretty close to the same. If for example Connoly can no longer hold down a top six roster spotafter the two year period you have a 3.5 million bottom six player that is hard to move.The first two years at 30 percent less cap hit makes it, in my view, pretty close in value. The risk with Connoly on a 4 year contract given our current cap crunch would be concerning.

    Is the value difference between the players just 30% though?

  108. Side says:

    Godot – Eakins
    Cassandra – Chiarelli
    Ricki – Social Justice Warriors
    Woodguy – his phone
    OriginalPouzar – quote function
    ArmchairGM – ???

    Who can solve this first.

  109. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Again, noone was comparing Chiasson to Connolly – well, at least I certainly wasn’t.

    I was solely comparing the use by a poster of a one-off anomaly season as a negative for one forward and not seeing the exact same thing (maybe even moreso) as an anomaly for his coveted player.

    That’s the evidence that Connolly has had some better rates over the last 3 years of his career, and in conclusion we can posit that he is more likely to have a higher rate of production going forward given more ice time/better line mates/pp time. Chiasson had a much better opportunity in Edmonton in his career year. That seems to be a fairly easy thing that I’m sure we can all agree on, the quality of teammate and ice time was more beneficial to Chiassons career year. Connolly’s career year looks to be closer to his true talent level from the 5v5 scoring rates. Chiasson had much more.. help? For lack of a better word.

    So overall I think Mr.Chair (as you put), looks at the numbers and thinks there is a higher probability that Connolly can repeat his year if not improve on it, where as Chiasson’s career year was more a product of opportunity, QoT, and unsustainable run of puck luck early at 5v5. That’s the difference I see between their career years. One seems to be more “lightning in the bottle” than the other, based on all the available info.

    Kind of seems like arguing for the sake of arguing

  110. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: Is the value difference between the players just 30% though?

    Doubtful. I believe it was Willis who had a great article either on ON or the athletic talking about the value of goals. Basically how it’s incorrect to assume a 1 million dollar player scoring 5 goals has the same value as a 5 million dollar player scoring 25 goals.

    There’s a better way to describe it but I’m dumb and had an exhausting day at work.

  111. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I hope everyone has had a chance to read this:

    https://theathletic.com/1082184/2019/07/18/what-the-oilers-2020-cap-situation-suggests-about-ken-hol

    Next off season isn’t looking too hot either.

    Maybe maybe not
    Someone takes Russell of our hands even if we retain a bit then obviously things will be different. Veteran D with expiring contracts are like a warm blanket in front a fireplace in winter for coaches and GMs
    Smith contract is done
    Gagner Manning Gryba Brodziak done
    Koskinen will either prove he is a starter or at least a 1a 1b level g or he’s getting bought out
    Decent amount of those roster holes will be filled with ELC guys

  112. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Side,

    What is a fetish?

  113. Bulging Twine says:

    Gambardella had a 29.9% Shooting percentage in Bakersfield last season.

    From highlights (i.e. sketchy) he had a lot of in tight HD goals, which is great, you want your FW’s to go there but 29.9%…..I think Woodguy would take the under if that was the line for next season.

  114. smellyglove says:

    Anyone read the, “By the numbers: Grading every team’s contract efficiency,” article at The Athletic by Dom Luszczyszyn? Not sure about his methodology, but at least he is transparent in publishing it. The Oilers receive middling marks, mostly and perhaps only because of the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts being so good.

    Otherwise, not so good: https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2019/07/15231915/Screen-Shot-2019-07-15-at-11.17.08-PM.png

  115. Bulging Twine says:

    Other Condors SH%:

    Yamamoto 22.2
    Currie 19.6
    Marody 13.8
    Russell 12.4
    Hebig 11.1
    Benson 8.7
    Malone 7.9

  116. OmJo says:

    Side:
    Godot – Eakins
    Cassandra – Chiarelli
    Ricki – Social Justice Warriors
    Woodguy – his phone
    OriginalPouzar – quote function
    ArmchairGM – ???

    Who can solve this first.

    Kevin Lowe.

  117. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Oilers have lacked a system that suits the roster forever. Forwards not supporting the breakout, D not talented enough to overcome it, poor O zone strategy.

    Basically the team was not often enough on the same page. We have seen the results.

    Compounding that was the players acquired. Heavy brought a lot of heavy skaters.

    Sure the Holland guys might be bottom 6, but they can move. I think that opens a lot of opportunities. Tippet can get buy in and his track says he tailors things to what he has.

    If I had to bet I’d say the current lack of an 4th established top 4 D, a lack of RCs to help faceoffs, and of course another quality addition to the top 6 hurt, maybe goalies too.

    I still expect a better group effort and result.

  118. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lucic has brought nothing for two years and nothing at even strength for 3.

    No, I don’t believe that getting in and laying a hit on a d-man a second and half after he’s transitioned the puck up the ice is bringing anything of substance – I would posit that was where 75% of hits were.

    Neal was just as bad last year, acknowledged, but its been one year, not 3.

    I’m not sure if Neal has a total inability to take a breakout pass at the blue line, pivot and efficiently move the puck up to a linemate.

    The fact that hoping for a 12G/30P rebound is likely unreasonable due to 3 years of 5 on 5 awful says it all.

    We need a bounce-back from Lucic as unreasonable as it seems. I do like this Lucic/Nuge/Kassian third line – in fact, I”m getting excited about it.

    This is such an “is your pussy wet ?” hope – Lucic, Nuge and Kassian. #Happiness

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    HTJoe: I haven’t gotten around to getting an Athletic account yet (sorry LT… life is busy), but next season better look better by far than this offseason.

    If Holland burns the 2019-2020 season, fine.I’ll check out by Halloween and the players have to endure another turd season (thanks Chia).

    But if Holland also burns the 2020-2021 season, he will most certainly alienate Larsson and RNH, and maybe even McDavid at that point.

    Expecting Holland to turn this steamer around in one offseason is unreasonable.But in 15 months, he better damn well have the Oilers moving substantially in the right direction…

    There is this illusion of cap space next off-season but its apx $25M but with only a 10 player roster and 13 players needed. After Nurse, they are looking at apx $18M for 12 players.

    Thankfully Russell’s NTC is further limited as its going to be essential that his $4M is replaced with an ELC (or 2nd contract in Lagesson/Bear).

    I’m happy that Holland hasn’t committed to guys like Dzingel, Connolly, Nyquist, Johansson – don’t get me wrong, each of those guys would help this year and the Dzingel and Connolly contracts are reasonable, however, if they committed to one of those marginal top 6 players (middle 6 – top 6), it would inhibit the ability to acquire a more material/legit top 6 player next off-season.

    The UFA market, aside from the Panarin’s, was full of marginal forwards – sure, a number of them would help a bit but not really move the needle for the ultimate goal – Holland only has so many bullets, cap currency, even next off-season, and I’m glad he didn’t commit any to a marginal player.

    A Lucic bounce-back or some sort would be massive if it led to the contract being movable with only a bit of pain as opposed to egregious pain because it sure would be nice to get an extra $3M to $6M from a Lucic disposition.

    Some young d-man popping ahead of reasonable expectations potentially allowing for a trade of an incumbent, although scares me, would also be something that would help a ton.

    Next off-season will be tough for Holland but he’s got lots of time to plan (which he seems to be doing) and will be graded alot more stringently that this off-season, at least by me.

  120. Material Elvis says:

    Side:
    Godot – Eakins
    Cassandra – Chiarelli
    Ricki – Social Justice Warriors
    Woodguy – his phone
    OriginalPouzar – quote function
    ArmchairGM – ???

    Who can solve this first.

    ??? = OriginalPouzar

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Maybe maybe not
    Someone takes Russell of our hands even if we retain a bit then obviously things will be different.Veteran D with expiring contracts are like a warm blanket in front a fireplace in winter for coaches and GMs
    Smith contract is done
    Gagner Manning Gryba Brodziak done
    Koskinen will either prove he is a starter or at least a 1a 1b level gor he’s getting bought out
    Decent amount of those roster holes will be filled with ELC guys

    A disposition of Russell and his replacement with an ELC or cheap 2nd contract d-man (Lagesson, Bear, Jones is imerative.

    Without disposing of Russell, it doesn’t matter that Gagner, Manning, Smith, etc. are gone as they need to be replaced on the roster – fact is the team has 10 roster players committed to next season with apx $25M in cap space – $25M to add 13 players. After Nurse, apx $18M to add 12 players.

    Absolutely, there are going to need to be some ELC players and this is the reason why I didn’t want to commit to a marginal top 6 guy as we need that $3M/$4M to acquire a more substantial player next off-season.

    Hopefully a clean Russell disposition can be consummated saving apx $2.8M – $3.1M depending on replacement.

    A Lucic bounce-back making that contract’s disposition at least in the realm of reasonableness would be massive.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    BulgingTwine:
    Gambardella had a 29.9% Shooting percentage in Bakersfield last season.

    From highlights (i.e. sketchy) he had a lot of in tight HD goals, which is great, you want your FW’s to go there but 29.9%…..I think Woodguy would take the under if that was the line for next season.

    I don’t think anyone would expect to be a material producer at the NHL level but more of an energy player in the bottom six that is responsible and smart – a player that can get in on the forecheck and cause turnovers. We’ve seen he’s got a nose for the net and some skill – the ability to finish. If he can develop in to that bottom 6 player i described and chip in 10-12 goals, that’s a nice player.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    BulgingTwine:
    Other Condors SH%:

    Yamamoto 22.2
    Currie 19.6
    Marody 13.8
    Russell 12.4
    Hebig 11.1
    Benson 8.7
    Malone 7.9

    Some context, Benson was shooting around 5% for half the year – he materially raised that in the 2nd half of the season.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    In 2017/18, in over 300 minutes together, Lucic and Nuge were over 50% accross the board, including a 56% goal share.

    This is at thing.

  125. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    In 2017/18, in over 300 minutes together, Lucic and Nuge were over 50% accross the board, including a 56% goal share.

    This is at thing.

    Are you sure the thing isn’t Eberle?

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: Are you sure the thing isn’t Eberle?

    211 minutes last year, 68% goal share.

    Confident Eberle had little to do with it.

  127. who says:

    Reja: If Neal doesn’t score this year he’s finishedNeal brings nothing else to the table but putting the biscuit in the net. Seriously I believe Lucic still has a couple years left in the tank of being effective sadly probably not with the Oilers but you never know with Tippett.

    Lucic hasn’t been effective since he got to Edmonton. You do the trade simply to buy out Neal.

  128. HT Joe says:

    OriginalPouzar: There is this illusion of cap space next off-season but its apx $25M but with only a 10 player roster and 13 players needed. After Nurse, they are looking at apx $18M for 12 players.

    I understand that next year isn’t some massive windfall of capspace, but Holland has to get this team moving. The other day, I started to accumulate the average points per season of some of the NHL teams since the Katz ownership took over. I just finished it, and below are the results from the last 11 seasons:

    Team // AVG. Pts/Season // Cups
    Pittsburgh 105.4 (3 cups)
    Washington 104.5 (1 cup)
    Boston 103.4 (1 cup)
    Chicago 102.4 (3 cups)
    San Jose 102.4
    Vegas 101.0
    St Louis 100.0 (1 cup)

    Team // AVG. Pts/Season // Cups
    Anaheim 98.7
    Nashville 96.4
    NY Rangers 95.2
    Tampa Bay 94.8
    Detroit 93.4
    Los Angeles 93.3 (2 cups)
    Montreal 93.1
    Philadelphia 92.9
    Winnipeg 92.6
    Vancouver 92.2
    Minnesota 91.7
    Dallas 90.3

    Team // AVG. Pts/Season
    Calgary 89.1
    Columbus 88.4
    New Jersey 87.5
    NY Islanders 85.7
    Ottawa 85.4
    Toronto 85.3
    Carolina 84.6
    Florida 83.7
    Arizona 83.5
    Colorado 82.1

    Team // AVG. Pts/Season
    Buffalo 78.3
    Edmonton 74.4

    A few comments:
    For Winnipeg, I averaged only the seasons since they moved back to Canada
    For Vegas, I know that they’ve only been in it 2 years – that screws things up
    For the 2012-2013 season, I just prorated points to 82 games to include it in calculations

    At the top, you have the teams averaging 100+ points per season:
    – 7 teams: Pittsburgh, Washington, Boston, Chicago, San Jose, Vegas, St Louis (wow)
    – All of these teams have won the cup except San Jose (lordy) and Vegas (only 2 years so far)
    – These teams account for ALL Stanley Cups in the last 11 years except Los Angeles… the key to getting a cup seems to be being consistently excellent for a long stretch of time

    Next up, you have the teams in the 90s
    – 12 teams
    – Finally some Canadian teams show up… Montreal, Vancouver, and Winnipeg
    – The average score for all teams over 11 years is 92.0 points per season… Montreal and Vancouver are the only Canadian teams that can be considered “average or better” in the last 11 seasons

    Next up, the teams in the 80s
    – 10 teams
    – Calgary, Ottawa, Toronto rounding out the non-Edmonton Canadian teams

    Finally, the cream of the crap, the teams in the 70s
    – Buffalo (78.3) and Edmonton (74.4): (nice try Buffalo)
    – since this is an average of over 11 seasons, it means that for Katz’ Oilers to not be the worst team since he took ownership, they will need to beat Buffalo’s season record next year by ~44 points!
    * for the Oilers to be the 3rd worst team since Katz took over, they will need to beat Colorado by 85 points next season.

    So yeah… a train wreck for 11 years and counting.
    Before Katz bought the team, there was legitimate hope that the Oilers could squeak into the playoffs.
    We’re entering year 5 of McDavid’s career, and I don’t think there are many serious betters that the playoffs hit Edmonton next spring.

  129. HT Joe says:

    Correction: The average points per season over the last 11 years is 91.8 points per team.
    – Over the years, the average has ranged from 90.7 to 92.3 points (thanks Bettman point)
    – The Oilers have been below average for 10 of the last 11 years.

  130. leadfarmer says:

    who: Lucic hasn’t been effective since he got to Edmonton.You do the trade simply to buy out Neal.

    The impressive thing about Neal is he has been a – player the last 3 seasons. Yes +\- has fallen out of favor but given that he played for Pittsburgh Vegas and Calgary that is very impressive especially that he was double digits in the hole 2/3 seasons.
    I’d keep him for a year and then buy him out

  131. HT Joe says:

    Time for a scary implication:

    Using the data when Chia was the big boss at Boston (2008-2009 to 2014-2015 seasons):
    – Boston had the third best record over that 7 season run (104.4 pts/season, compared to the league average of 91.8 during that period of time). For practical purposes, Chia knocked it out of the park, and his team was a significant leap better than average.
    – Using the full dataset from the last 11 years, Detroit has had the 12th best record (93.4 pts/season, compared to the league average of 91.8 – yes, it is the same average for the 7 and 11 season stretches). For practical purposes, Holland’s work has yielded an absolutely average team for the last 11 years.

    So what if Chia really wasn’t that bad, but just understood the need to overpay / overpromise / NTC and NMC players like mad, to compensate for the Oilers’ intrinsic disadvantages (interfering owner or OBC, fish bowl, terrible travel schedule, high taxes, cold weather).

    What if Holland only started to understand the Oilers’ intrinsic disadvantages after the Sekera buyout?

    What if, all things being equal, Chia is a better GM than Holland (as his record in Boston would indicate)?!

    (Update: Holland’s team over the 7 year stretch actually had an average of 101 points, so about the same as Chia… Detroit just really fell apart over the last 4 seasons)

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    HTJoe: I understand that next year isn’t some massive windfall of capspace, but Holland has to get this team moving.

    Which is exactly what my post you responded to said.

  133. HT Joe says:

    OriginalPouzar: Which is exactly what my post you responded to said.

    Excellent, we’re all in agreement (since your latest post was responding to my post, which responded to your post, which was in response to my post, all of which confirm… Holland – make the 2020-2021 Oilers great again!). 😉

  134. Sierra says:

    Reja: If Neal doesn’t score this year he’s finishedNeal brings nothing else to the table but putting the biscuit in the net. Seriously I believe Lucic still has a couple years left in the tank of being effective sadly probably not with the Oilers but you never know with Tippett.

    I recall the word on Neal was that he came to Calgary out of shape. If true, I expect him to have a much better season in 19/20.

  135. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: Is the value difference between the players just 30% though?

    The value difference for two years is a factor of production per contract. Connolly has to produce 30% more offence to break even. The biggest factor evening the value aspect is the risk factor. The team cannot afford another bad value four year or longer contract.

  136. who says:

    leadfarmer: The impressive thing about Neal is he has been a – player the last 3 seasons.Yes +\- has fallen out of favor but given that he played for Pittsburgh Vegas and Calgary that is very impressive especially that he was double digits in the hole 2/3 seasons.
    I’d keep him for a year and then buy him out

    If they trade for him this summer, they have to keep him for a year.

  137. Reja says:

    Sierra: I recall the word on Neal was that he came to Calgary out of shape. If true, I expect him to have a much better season in 19/20.

    Neal received his Kid’s Kid’s retirement package Lucic has as much chance of returning to form as Neal does. I myself would take 13 goals by Lucic over a 15 goal campaign by Neal any day of the week.

  138. Bulging Twine says:

    Josh Archibald played 68 games last season.
    He missed 14
    Why?

    He started the season on IR with an upper body injury, he missed 4 games.

    He played the next 6 not registering a point
    then was healthy scratched for 4,
    played 2 – 0pts
    scratched 1,
    played 1 – 0pts
    suspended 2,
    HS 2
    then got 2 goals and 1 assist in his next game, which happened to be the day after the Brendan Perlini trade, aka the Scmaltz – Strome trade.
    He didn’t get HS’d after that.
    He did miss one game later in the season as his wife was having a baby.

    So if we take out those first 9 games before he became a regular in the lineup (just for fun) his line was:

    59 – 12 – 10 – 22 .37p/g
    on 13:53 per game ice time

    82 game pace:
    16.7 – 13.9 = 30.6

    5×5 /60 rates were:
    .77 – .69 – 1.46

    Why didn’t Arizona resign, re-sign?, him?

    Looks like they prefer Grabner, Crouse, Garland, and Fischer as bottom 6 wingers more.
    Fischer is a bigger body – age 22- 2nd round pick – on an entry level deal ,
    Garland broke out offensively,
    Grabner is signed for two more years @ 3.35 and had great PK rates,
    and Crouse was a 1st round pick – bigger body and is 22.

  139. pts2pndr says:

    Side:
    Godot – Eakins
    Cassandra – Chiarelli
    Ricki – Social Justice Warriors
    Woodguy – his phone
    OriginalPouzar – quote function
    ArmchairGM – ???

    Who can solve this first.

    Ken Holland

  140. Bulging Twine says:

    5×5 G/60 rates for Oiler FW’s over the final 41 games (more than 260 minutes played):

    Draisattl 1.17
    McDavid .99
    Kassian .97
    Gagner .77
    RNH .61
    Lucic .52
    Brodziak .45
    Cave .35
    Chiasson .32
    Khaira 0
    Rieder 0

    Kassian 🙂
    Chiasson, Khaira 🙁

  141. Bulging Twine says:

    5×5 P/60 over final 41 games (more than 260 minutes played):

    McDavid 2.71
    Draisattl 2.42
    Kassian 1.84
    Gagner 1.74
    RNH 1.63
    Lucic 1.31
    Khaira .87
    Chiasson .85
    Brodziak .67
    Rieder .59
    Cave .53

  142. Faustkarz says:

    New poster, new to stats, but what the hell

    James Neal
    GP G A P CF% rCF% FF%. rFF% oZS%. Elite%. Elite GF% P/gp g/gp $GP/P $GP/G PPG
    71 25 19 44 52.9 2.2 51.8 1.1 56.4 32.3 50 0.62 0.57 0.28 0.49. 5
    70 23 18 41 51.5 0.4 51.2 -0.6 55.6 38.0 41.7 0.41 0.56 0.30 0.53. 5
    63 7 12 19 51.1 -2.5 49.6 -3.7 53.5 28.5 39.1 0.19 0.37 0.58 1.57 2

    Milan Lucic
    82 23 27 50 51.5 1.8. 51.4 0.3 55.3 35.8 53.1 0.61 0.46 0.27 0.59 12
    82 10 24 34 51.6 1.0 52.3 1.3 53.5 33.1 55.6 0.41 0.29 0.40 1.37 3
    79 6 14 20 51.0 3.6 49.6 2.1 45.5. 26.0 28.6 0.25 0.3 0.66 2.19 2

    Created stat for fun Millions per GP / (P || G). Idea being points are relative to games played and dollars of contract.
    Lucic goals on the season relative to contract really dried up the past two years (OP of course due to loss of PP time).

    On that nature alone, Neal would be more beneficial. I do agree with Ricki, independent of player type, you are really asking for accessory players to score goals.

    If Neal for Lucic was 1 for 1, what are you really hoping for? That Neal can complement the 1-2 C’s? I think that is more idealistic hope than a realistic expectation. More likely to bring down the macros than anything.

    I would take the player who plays better macros relative to his team, albeit sheltered against Elite competition (though that seems necessary for both on a winning hockey team, though I wouldn’t know being an oilers fan), every day of the week.

    Baseline thought: Both are over-payed, Milan by far more when it comes to goals, but he, at least, plays the games he’s payed for. On a shitty team, he was still a positive, while Neal was a negative both relatively and objectively on a “great” team. Shelter Lucic on a 3rd line with a good 3C, Nuge or other, toss him out against the dregs and 3mil$ players of the world. End the game 0-0 +/- McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge/(Benson/Jurco/Marody/etc.) goals.

    Visual POV Milan lucic is not effective on a 4th line A) 4th line in DZ is trouble waiting to happen B) Hard forechecking 4th lines are key to a depth-built team; only place for either player is 3rd line and Lucic is the better player there IMO. Still needs to learn (re-learn??) taking a pass on the DZ blue line, though.

    Team doesn’t need another buy out. Lucic (50% retained) + 3rd for Neal (50% retained) would consider only for future movement of both players off both teams.

    Also Archibald will be a 18G / 15 A 2RW by years end.

    Thinking about producing an age & body-size & injury based linear regression for players to determine where a cliff can be expected

  143. Sunnyboy says:

    Looks like no playoffs for next year. I believe Holland will continue to go forward as he has started and, like Sekera, Nurse will be gone.Holland will look down the #2 and see ol’ man Gio playing for less than Nurse is asking, a trade will be done to a playoff team before the deadline. By then some Condors with the big club will have been tested in various situations, hoping the youngsters are ready for 3rd pair duty. Job battles for 20-21 should be interesting and early draft speculation occurs as usual.
    Sure be nice to move Lucic. I think Russell stays, coaches seem to like him, posters here beat him to death, makes a fella wonder who is smarter and who is blowing smoke. JMO.

  144. hunter1909 says:

    Dave Tippett is paid millions to study hockey. Lowetide commentators are not paid millions to study hockey.

    In the case of last season’s Oilers, it’s better that it’s summer, as far away as possible from the putridness.

    “Tippett’s gone nuts. He’s watching videos of old Oilers games”

  145. hunter1909 says:

    Sunnyboy: Looks like no playoffs for next year. I believe Holland will continue to go forward as he has started and, like Sekera, Nurse will be gone.

    Holland got rid of Sekera due to the fact he is on IR too much and continues to be a threat to return. Nurse is more or less the opposite, always showing up for the games.

    If you think Holland is good for is either sitting on his hands like Tambellini or else destroying the team further like Chiarelli, then you might be on to something; but you will only prove it next season.

    On the other hand I’m gullible enough to think Holland + new coach Tippett have good heads for the game and should, between them, be able to figure out some kind of tactical approach + strategy to help the star player lead the Oilers into the post season.

  146. Bulging Twine says:

    Markus Granlund led the Canucks in 5×5 goals/60 in the second half.

    .83

    not an assist guy though. 0 first assists, .17 second.

  147. ArmchairGM says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Sure the Holland guys might be bottom 6, but

    That’s the $64 question now, isn’t it? Archibald and Granlund are the only ones with NHL experience, and their former teams didn’t bother to even qualify them. Archibald could have been qualified at barely over league minimum and yet Arizona chose to let him walk. Granlund is seen in Vancouver as a decent option for 13th forward, hardly a resounding vote of confidence. These are non-playoff teams, and yet their cast-offs are considered Holland’s greatest achievements this summer.

    It’s too early to know, but the other guys – Jurco, Nygard and Haas – may not cut it in the NHL at all. Certainly the odds of success for a 27-year-old European player to grab a regular spot on an NHL team are low.

    So your phrasing is correct: they “might” be bottom 6 players.

  148. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: The value difference for two years is a factor of production per contract. Connolly has to produce 30% more offence to break even. The biggest factor evening the value aspect is the risk factor. The team cannot afford another bad value four year or longer contract.

    I don’t think Connolly would have any problem producing 30% more offense than Chiasson. Over the past 3 years, his 5v5 G/60 and P/60 have been quite a bit better than that.

    P/60
    Connolly: 2.19
    Chiasson: 1.26
    difference: 74% more

    G/60
    Connolly: 1.13
    Chiasson: 0.56
    difference: 102% more

    And just so you can see who is the driver and who the passenger, here are their most common linemates over the same timeframe.

    Connolly

    Eller 1696:34
    Burakovsky 898:13
    Orlov 839:04
    Niskanen 767:06
    Orpik 721:36
    Carlson 703:01

    Chiasson

    Draisaitl 570:19
    Bennett 413:31
    Nurse 389:48
    Gaudreau 385:39
    Larsson 376:16
    Brodie 340:34

    One of these is not like the other.

    Yeah, I don’t think Connolly would have any problem outproducing Chiasson given the same linemates and opportunities.

  149. ArmchairGM says:

    Bulging Twine: Why didn’t Arizona resign, re-sign?, him?

    If they thought he had any value they could have qualified him for a paltry $735,000 and then traded him. They obviously didn’t.

  150. ArmchairGM says:

    Bulging Twine:
    5×5 P/60 over final 41 games (more than 260 minutes played):

    McDavid 2.71
    Draisattl 2.42
    Kassian 1.84
    Gagner 1.74
    RNH 1.63
    Lucic 1.31
    Khaira .87
    Chiasson .85
    Brodziak .67
    Rieder .59
    Cave .53

    So… Lucic – RNH – Gagner is our best bet for 2nd line? *shudders*

  151. blainer says:

    I see the leaf’s are having a difficult time getting Marner signed.. no surprise there.

    How about this for a trade.

    Since we don’t have the cap for an offer sheet how about four 1st rounders another way..

    Nurse JP Yammamoto and a 2020 lottery protected 1st for Marner. We would have to get creative with T.O. to make the cap work though. Would have to try to include Gagner somehow. It would be complicated but Dubas has a way of being creative and I think he is a big believer in Nurse.

    Then Move Marner back to center. Bam.. right away we have a contending team but would need to figure out Nurse’s replacement on the cheap.

    Having watched Marner a fair bit he would be an unbelievable add who IMO could drive his own line..

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jurco has over 200 games of NHL experience.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: If they thought he had any value they could have qualified him for a paltry $735,000 and then traded him. They obviously didn’t.

    Of course, GMs make mistakes and odd decisions all the time.

    Lots of waived, bought out, etc. players contribute to future teams.

    Noone wanted Alex Chiasson at league min – he got 22 goals.

    Ducks didn’t want Patrick Maroon and retained salary so the Oilers could have him score 25 goals at $1.5M.

    They may regret their stance on Archibald as GMs sometimes do. Archibald could be waived come October. We just don’t know. Seems like a very solid bet though.

  154. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    ArmchairGM: So… Lucic – RNH – Gagner is our best bet for 2nd line? *shudders*

    3rd line!!

  155. Ryan says:

    Bulging Twine:
    5×5 P/60 over final 41 games (more than 260 minutes played):

    McDavid 2.71
    Draisattl 2.42
    Kassian 1.84
    Gagner 1.74
    RNH 1.63
    Lucic 1.31
    Khaira .87
    Chiasson .85
    Brodziak .67
    Rieder .59
    Cave .53

    We all already know my thoughts on the Chaser contract.

    Kassian is the mirror image. Look at his first 41.

    Kassian 0.56 points/60

    #whycantallourwingersplaywithMcDavidandDraisatl?

    Kassian was a pump and dump, but no one told Kenny.

  156. Ribs says:

    Nit64:
    LT,

    There was talk earlier off an off season migration to a new provider. Still planned?

    I’m getting this warning from Chrome today:

    “This page is trying to load scripts from unauthenticated sources: The site youtry to visit isn’t secure.”

    I’ve had this error forever. I looked into it one time and it’s just a little line of depricated code that isn’t up to https level authentication. It’s not harmful in any way.

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