Player Usage

by Lowetide

Dave Tippett told Jason Gregor he’s reviewing last year’s Oilers games and he has some Condors games, too. I think that’s an encouraging bit of news, curious people pursue knowledge during all 12 months of the year. So, if Dave Tippett can do it, maybe we can do a little of it, too. Let’s start with player usage, then and in the future.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Kent Wilson and Lowetide: Why the Flames and Oilers would (and wouldn’t) trade Sam Bennett for Jesse Puljujarvi
  • New Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • New Jonathan Willis: What the Oilers’ 2020 cap situation suggests about Ken Holland’s master plan.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With free agency all but over, Oilers’ Ken Holland has tough work ahead on the trade front
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Is there anyone left in free agency who can help the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
  • Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

TIPPETT’S FINAL ARIZONA DEFENSE

This is 2016-17 and it looks exactly as expected. OEL is fencing against the world’s best swordsman every night while walking a tightrope over the Grand Canyon. This defense allowed 260 goals and finished 33 points behind the Oilers that season. Tippett cobbled together a top-4 until management sent Stone away. Credit as well for recognizing Chychrun at age 18.

OILERS DEFENSE 2018-19

McLellan and Hitchcock relied on four men throughout the year, it’s quite possible we see more of the same this coming season. What I’d like to see is another puck mover in the top-4D, and I do hope Tippett gives Matt Benning more chores against elites.

Some things worth watching: Will Tippett run with Klefbom-Larsson as top pair, or will Nurse get some time with Larsson? Who is the second pairing RH blue? It could be Russell, probably is Russell, but Jones is very mobile and has played RH side. Joel Persson, Ethan Bear and Evan Bouchard would seem to be applying for third pair but will Tippett see something in one of them? And of course my man Benning. If he played 350 minutes against elites, could he handle it? One true thing: Oscar Klefbom is vitally important to this hockey club.

Kent Wilson is one of my favourite writers and I enjoyed writing this piece with him. In drilling down on the young careers of both men, the Bennett-for-Puljujarvi idea has merit, but the downside is enormous. The Flames have been far better than the Oilers in identifying talent over these past few years and young JP is going to be highly motivated wherever he goes. A fascinating idea.

LUCIC FOR NEAL

Two things: We’re past all bonuses now (right?) so if this deal is going to drop now is the time. Why wait? Also, a few people talking about Edmonton having to sweeten the deal because of ML’s contract. I’m not certain a sweetener is reasonable. You?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

If we get a Lucic trade today that will change everything. At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we’ll be joined by Ben Kramer, fantasy analyst for Daily Roto and CFL, plus Laura Armstrong of the Toronto Star. Lots of CFL and MLB and you know we’ll talk Oilers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Nit64:
LT,

There was talk earlier off an off season migration to a new provider. Still planned?

I’m getting this warning from Chrome today:

“This page is trying to load scripts from unauthenticated sources: The site youtry to visit isn’t secure.”

I’ve had this error forever. I looked into it one time and it’s just a little line of depricated code that isn’t up to https level authentication. It’s not harmful in any way.

Ryan

Bulging Twine:
5×5 P/60 over final 41 games (more than 260 minutes played):

McDavid 2.71
Draisattl 2.42
Kassian 1.84
Gagner 1.74
RNH 1.63
Lucic 1.31
Khaira .87
Chiasson .85
Brodziak .67
Rieder .59
Cave .53

We all already know my thoughts on the Chaser contract.

Kassian is the mirror image. Look at his first 41.

Kassian 0.56 points/60

#whycantallourwingersplaywithMcDavidandDraisatl?

Kassian was a pump and dump, but no one told Kenny.

GordieHoweHatTrick

ArmchairGM: So… Lucic – RNH – Gagner is our best bet for 2nd line? *shudders*

3rd line!!

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: If they thought he had any value they could have qualified him for a paltry $735,000 and then traded him. They obviously didn’t.

Of course, GMs make mistakes and odd decisions all the time.

Lots of waived, bought out, etc. players contribute to future teams.

Noone wanted Alex Chiasson at league min – he got 22 goals.

Ducks didn’t want Patrick Maroon and retained salary so the Oilers could have him score 25 goals at $1.5M.

They may regret their stance on Archibald as GMs sometimes do. Archibald could be waived come October. We just don’t know. Seems like a very solid bet though.

OriginalPouzar

Jurco has over 200 games of NHL experience.

blainer

I see the leaf’s are having a difficult time getting Marner signed.. no surprise there.

How about this for a trade.

Since we don’t have the cap for an offer sheet how about four 1st rounders another way..

Nurse JP Yammamoto and a 2020 lottery protected 1st for Marner. We would have to get creative with T.O. to make the cap work though. Would have to try to include Gagner somehow. It would be complicated but Dubas has a way of being creative and I think he is a big believer in Nurse.

Then Move Marner back to center. Bam.. right away we have a contending team but would need to figure out Nurse’s replacement on the cheap.

Having watched Marner a fair bit he would be an unbelievable add who IMO could drive his own line..

ArmchairGM

Bulging Twine:
5×5 P/60 over final 41 games (more than 260 minutes played):

McDavid 2.71
Draisattl 2.42
Kassian 1.84
Gagner 1.74
RNH 1.63
Lucic 1.31
Khaira .87
Chiasson .85
Brodziak .67
Rieder .59
Cave .53

So… Lucic – RNH – Gagner is our best bet for 2nd line? *shudders*

ArmchairGM

Bulging Twine: Why didn’t Arizona resign, re-sign?, him?

If they thought he had any value they could have qualified him for a paltry $735,000 and then traded him. They obviously didn’t.

ArmchairGM

pts2pndr: The value difference for two years is a factor of production per contract. Connolly has to produce 30% more offence to break even. The biggest factor evening the value aspect is the risk factor. The team cannot afford another bad value four year or longer contract.

I don’t think Connolly would have any problem producing 30% more offense than Chiasson. Over the past 3 years, his 5v5 G/60 and P/60 have been quite a bit better than that.

P/60
Connolly: 2.19
Chiasson: 1.26
difference: 74% more

G/60
Connolly: 1.13
Chiasson: 0.56
difference: 102% more

And just so you can see who is the driver and who the passenger, here are their most common linemates over the same timeframe.

Connolly

Eller 1696:34
Burakovsky 898:13
Orlov 839:04
Niskanen 767:06
Orpik 721:36
Carlson 703:01

Chiasson

Draisaitl 570:19
Bennett 413:31
Nurse 389:48
Gaudreau 385:39
Larsson 376:16
Brodie 340:34

One of these is not like the other.

Yeah, I don’t think Connolly would have any problem outproducing Chiasson given the same linemates and opportunities.

ArmchairGM

Scungilli Slushy: Sure the Holland guys might be bottom 6, but

That’s the $64 question now, isn’t it? Archibald and Granlund are the only ones with NHL experience, and their former teams didn’t bother to even qualify them. Archibald could have been qualified at barely over league minimum and yet Arizona chose to let him walk. Granlund is seen in Vancouver as a decent option for 13th forward, hardly a resounding vote of confidence. These are non-playoff teams, and yet their cast-offs are considered Holland’s greatest achievements this summer.

It’s too early to know, but the other guys – Jurco, Nygard and Haas – may not cut it in the NHL at all. Certainly the odds of success for a 27-year-old European player to grab a regular spot on an NHL team are low.

So your phrasing is correct: they “might” be bottom 6 players.

Bulging Twine

Markus Granlund led the Canucks in 5×5 goals/60 in the second half.

.83

not an assist guy though. 0 first assists, .17 second.

hunter1909

Sunnyboy: Looks like no playoffs for next year. I believe Holland will continue to go forward as he has started and, like Sekera, Nurse will be gone.

Holland got rid of Sekera due to the fact he is on IR too much and continues to be a threat to return. Nurse is more or less the opposite, always showing up for the games.

If you think Holland is good for is either sitting on his hands like Tambellini or else destroying the team further like Chiarelli, then you might be on to something; but you will only prove it next season.

On the other hand I’m gullible enough to think Holland + new coach Tippett have good heads for the game and should, between them, be able to figure out some kind of tactical approach + strategy to help the star player lead the Oilers into the post season.

hunter1909

Dave Tippett is paid millions to study hockey. Lowetide commentators are not paid millions to study hockey.

In the case of last season’s Oilers, it’s better that it’s summer, as far away as possible from the putridness.

“Tippett’s gone nuts. He’s watching videos of old Oilers games”

Sunnyboy

Looks like no playoffs for next year. I believe Holland will continue to go forward as he has started and, like Sekera, Nurse will be gone.Holland will look down the #2 and see ol’ man Gio playing for less than Nurse is asking, a trade will be done to a playoff team before the deadline. By then some Condors with the big club will have been tested in various situations, hoping the youngsters are ready for 3rd pair duty. Job battles for 20-21 should be interesting and early draft speculation occurs as usual.
Sure be nice to move Lucic. I think Russell stays, coaches seem to like him, posters here beat him to death, makes a fella wonder who is smarter and who is blowing smoke. JMO.

Faustkarz

New poster, new to stats, but what the hell

James Neal
GP G A P CF% rCF% FF%. rFF% oZS%. Elite%. Elite GF% P/gp g/gp $GP/P $GP/G PPG
71 25 19 44 52.9 2.2 51.8 1.1 56.4 32.3 50 0.62 0.57 0.28 0.49. 5
70 23 18 41 51.5 0.4 51.2 -0.6 55.6 38.0 41.7 0.41 0.56 0.30 0.53. 5
63 7 12 19 51.1 -2.5 49.6 -3.7 53.5 28.5 39.1 0.19 0.37 0.58 1.57 2

Milan Lucic
82 23 27 50 51.5 1.8. 51.4 0.3 55.3 35.8 53.1 0.61 0.46 0.27 0.59 12
82 10 24 34 51.6 1.0 52.3 1.3 53.5 33.1 55.6 0.41 0.29 0.40 1.37 3
79 6 14 20 51.0 3.6 49.6 2.1 45.5. 26.0 28.6 0.25 0.3 0.66 2.19 2

Created stat for fun Millions per GP / (P || G). Idea being points are relative to games played and dollars of contract.
Lucic goals on the season relative to contract really dried up the past two years (OP of course due to loss of PP time).

On that nature alone, Neal would be more beneficial. I do agree with Ricki, independent of player type, you are really asking for accessory players to score goals.

If Neal for Lucic was 1 for 1, what are you really hoping for? That Neal can complement the 1-2 C’s? I think that is more idealistic hope than a realistic expectation. More likely to bring down the macros than anything.

I would take the player who plays better macros relative to his team, albeit sheltered against Elite competition (though that seems necessary for both on a winning hockey team, though I wouldn’t know being an oilers fan), every day of the week.

Baseline thought: Both are over-payed, Milan by far more when it comes to goals, but he, at least, plays the games he’s payed for. On a shitty team, he was still a positive, while Neal was a negative both relatively and objectively on a “great” team. Shelter Lucic on a 3rd line with a good 3C, Nuge or other, toss him out against the dregs and 3mil$ players of the world. End the game 0-0 +/- McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge/(Benson/Jurco/Marody/etc.) goals.

Visual POV Milan lucic is not effective on a 4th line A) 4th line in DZ is trouble waiting to happen B) Hard forechecking 4th lines are key to a depth-built team; only place for either player is 3rd line and Lucic is the better player there IMO. Still needs to learn (re-learn??) taking a pass on the DZ blue line, though.

Team doesn’t need another buy out. Lucic (50% retained) + 3rd for Neal (50% retained) would consider only for future movement of both players off both teams.

Also Archibald will be a 18G / 15 A 2RW by years end.

Thinking about producing an age & body-size & injury based linear regression for players to determine where a cliff can be expected

Bulging Twine

5×5 P/60 over final 41 games (more than 260 minutes played):

McDavid 2.71
Draisattl 2.42
Kassian 1.84
Gagner 1.74
RNH 1.63
Lucic 1.31
Khaira .87
Chiasson .85
Brodziak .67
Rieder .59
Cave .53

Bulging Twine

5×5 G/60 rates for Oiler FW’s over the final 41 games (more than 260 minutes played):

Draisattl 1.17
McDavid .99
Kassian .97
Gagner .77
RNH .61
Lucic .52
Brodziak .45
Cave .35
Chiasson .32
Khaira 0
Rieder 0

Kassian 🙂
Chiasson, Khaira 🙁

pts2pndr

Side:
Godot – Eakins
Cassandra – Chiarelli
Ricki – Social Justice Warriors
Woodguy – his phone
OriginalPouzar – quote function
ArmchairGM – ???

Who can solve this first.

Ken Holland

Bulging Twine

Josh Archibald played 68 games last season.
He missed 14
Why?

He started the season on IR with an upper body injury, he missed 4 games.

He played the next 6 not registering a point
then was healthy scratched for 4,
played 2 – 0pts
scratched 1,
played 1 – 0pts
suspended 2,
HS 2
then got 2 goals and 1 assist in his next game, which happened to be the day after the Brendan Perlini trade, aka the Scmaltz – Strome trade.
He didn’t get HS’d after that.
He did miss one game later in the season as his wife was having a baby.

So if we take out those first 9 games before he became a regular in the lineup (just for fun) his line was:

59 – 12 – 10 – 22 .37p/g
on 13:53 per game ice time

82 game pace:
16.7 – 13.9 = 30.6

5×5 /60 rates were:
.77 – .69 – 1.46

Why didn’t Arizona resign, re-sign?, him?

Looks like they prefer Grabner, Crouse, Garland, and Fischer as bottom 6 wingers more.
Fischer is a bigger body – age 22- 2nd round pick – on an entry level deal ,
Garland broke out offensively,
Grabner is signed for two more years @ 3.35 and had great PK rates,
and Crouse was a 1st round pick – bigger body and is 22.

Reja

Sierra: I recall the word on Neal was that he came to Calgary out of shape. If true, I expect him to have a much better season in 19/20.

Neal received his Kid’s Kid’s retirement package Lucic has as much chance of returning to form as Neal does. I myself would take 13 goals by Lucic over a 15 goal campaign by Neal any day of the week.

who

leadfarmer: The impressive thing about Neal is he has been a – player the last 3 seasons.Yes +\- has fallen out of favor but given that he played for Pittsburgh Vegas and Calgary that is very impressive especially that he was double digits in the hole 2/3 seasons.
I’d keep him for a year and then buy him out

If they trade for him this summer, they have to keep him for a year.

pts2pndr

ArmchairGM: Is the value difference between the players just 30% though?

The value difference for two years is a factor of production per contract. Connolly has to produce 30% more offence to break even. The biggest factor evening the value aspect is the risk factor. The team cannot afford another bad value four year or longer contract.

Sierra

Reja: If Neal doesn’t score this year he’s finishedNeal brings nothing else to the table but putting the biscuit in the net. Seriously I believe Lucic still has a couple years left in the tank of being effective sadly probably not with the Oilers but you never know with Tippett.

I recall the word on Neal was that he came to Calgary out of shape. If true, I expect him to have a much better season in 19/20.

HT Joe

OriginalPouzar: Which is exactly what my post you responded to said.

Excellent, we’re all in agreement (since your latest post was responding to my post, which responded to your post, which was in response to my post, all of which confirm… Holland – make the 2020-2021 Oilers great again!). 😉

OriginalPouzar

HTJoe: I understand that next year isn’t some massive windfall of capspace, but Holland has to get this team moving.

Which is exactly what my post you responded to said.

HT Joe

Time for a scary implication:

Using the data when Chia was the big boss at Boston (2008-2009 to 2014-2015 seasons):
– Boston had the third best record over that 7 season run (104.4 pts/season, compared to the league average of 91.8 during that period of time). For practical purposes, Chia knocked it out of the park, and his team was a significant leap better than average.
– Using the full dataset from the last 11 years, Detroit has had the 12th best record (93.4 pts/season, compared to the league average of 91.8 – yes, it is the same average for the 7 and 11 season stretches). For practical purposes, Holland’s work has yielded an absolutely average team for the last 11 years.

So what if Chia really wasn’t that bad, but just understood the need to overpay / overpromise / NTC and NMC players like mad, to compensate for the Oilers’ intrinsic disadvantages (interfering owner or OBC, fish bowl, terrible travel schedule, high taxes, cold weather).

What if Holland only started to understand the Oilers’ intrinsic disadvantages after the Sekera buyout?

What if, all things being equal, Chia is a better GM than Holland (as his record in Boston would indicate)?!

(Update: Holland’s team over the 7 year stretch actually had an average of 101 points, so about the same as Chia… Detroit just really fell apart over the last 4 seasons)

leadfarmer

who: Lucic hasn’t been effective since he got to Edmonton.You do the trade simply to buy out Neal.

The impressive thing about Neal is he has been a – player the last 3 seasons. Yes +\- has fallen out of favor but given that he played for Pittsburgh Vegas and Calgary that is very impressive especially that he was double digits in the hole 2/3 seasons.
I’d keep him for a year and then buy him out

HT Joe

Correction: The average points per season over the last 11 years is 91.8 points per team.
– Over the years, the average has ranged from 90.7 to 92.3 points (thanks Bettman point)
– The Oilers have been below average for 10 of the last 11 years.

HT Joe

OriginalPouzar: There is this illusion of cap space next off-season but its apx $25M but with only a 10 player roster and 13 players needed. After Nurse, they are looking at apx $18M for 12 players.

I understand that next year isn’t some massive windfall of capspace, but Holland has to get this team moving. The other day, I started to accumulate the average points per season of some of the NHL teams since the Katz ownership took over. I just finished it, and below are the results from the last 11 seasons:

Team // AVG. Pts/Season // Cups
Pittsburgh 105.4 (3 cups)
Washington 104.5 (1 cup)
Boston 103.4 (1 cup)
Chicago 102.4 (3 cups)
San Jose 102.4
Vegas 101.0
St Louis 100.0 (1 cup)

Team // AVG. Pts/Season // Cups
Anaheim 98.7
Nashville 96.4
NY Rangers 95.2
Tampa Bay 94.8
Detroit 93.4
Los Angeles 93.3 (2 cups)
Montreal 93.1
Philadelphia 92.9
Winnipeg 92.6
Vancouver 92.2
Minnesota 91.7
Dallas 90.3

Team // AVG. Pts/Season
Calgary 89.1
Columbus 88.4
New Jersey 87.5
NY Islanders 85.7
Ottawa 85.4
Toronto 85.3
Carolina 84.6
Florida 83.7
Arizona 83.5
Colorado 82.1

Team // AVG. Pts/Season
Buffalo 78.3
Edmonton 74.4

A few comments:
For Winnipeg, I averaged only the seasons since they moved back to Canada
For Vegas, I know that they’ve only been in it 2 years – that screws things up
For the 2012-2013 season, I just prorated points to 82 games to include it in calculations

At the top, you have the teams averaging 100+ points per season:
– 7 teams: Pittsburgh, Washington, Boston, Chicago, San Jose, Vegas, St Louis (wow)
– All of these teams have won the cup except San Jose (lordy) and Vegas (only 2 years so far)
– These teams account for ALL Stanley Cups in the last 11 years except Los Angeles… the key to getting a cup seems to be being consistently excellent for a long stretch of time

Next up, you have the teams in the 90s
– 12 teams
– Finally some Canadian teams show up… Montreal, Vancouver, and Winnipeg
– The average score for all teams over 11 years is 92.0 points per season… Montreal and Vancouver are the only Canadian teams that can be considered “average or better” in the last 11 seasons

Next up, the teams in the 80s
– 10 teams
– Calgary, Ottawa, Toronto rounding out the non-Edmonton Canadian teams

Finally, the cream of the crap, the teams in the 70s
– Buffalo (78.3) and Edmonton (74.4): (nice try Buffalo)
– since this is an average of over 11 seasons, it means that for Katz’ Oilers to not be the worst team since he took ownership, they will need to beat Buffalo’s season record next year by ~44 points!
* for the Oilers to be the 3rd worst team since Katz took over, they will need to beat Colorado by 85 points next season.

So yeah… a train wreck for 11 years and counting.
Before Katz bought the team, there was legitimate hope that the Oilers could squeak into the playoffs.
We’re entering year 5 of McDavid’s career, and I don’t think there are many serious betters that the playoffs hit Edmonton next spring.

who

Reja: If Neal doesn’t score this year he’s finishedNeal brings nothing else to the table but putting the biscuit in the net. Seriously I believe Lucic still has a couple years left in the tank of being effective sadly probably not with the Oilers but you never know with Tippett.

Lucic hasn’t been effective since he got to Edmonton. You do the trade simply to buy out Neal.

OriginalPouzar

godot: Are you sure the thing isn’t Eberle?

211 minutes last year, 68% goal share.

Confident Eberle had little to do with it.

godot10

OriginalPouzar:
In 2017/18, in over 300 minutes together, Lucic and Nuge were over 50% accross the board, including a 56% goal share.

This is at thing.

Are you sure the thing isn’t Eberle?

OriginalPouzar

In 2017/18, in over 300 minutes together, Lucic and Nuge were over 50% accross the board, including a 56% goal share.

This is at thing.

OriginalPouzar

BulgingTwine:
Other Condors SH%:

Yamamoto 22.2
Currie 19.6
Marody 13.8
Russell 12.4
Hebig 11.1
Benson 8.7
Malone 7.9

Some context, Benson was shooting around 5% for half the year – he materially raised that in the 2nd half of the season.

OriginalPouzar

BulgingTwine:
Gambardella had a 29.9% Shooting percentage in Bakersfield last season.

From highlights (i.e. sketchy) he had a lot of in tight HD goals, which is great, you want your FW’s to go there but 29.9%…..I think Woodguy would take the under if that was the line for next season.

I don’t think anyone would expect to be a material producer at the NHL level but more of an energy player in the bottom six that is responsible and smart – a player that can get in on the forecheck and cause turnovers. We’ve seen he’s got a nose for the net and some skill – the ability to finish. If he can develop in to that bottom 6 player i described and chip in 10-12 goals, that’s a nice player.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Maybe maybe not
Someone takes Russell of our hands even if we retain a bit then obviously things will be different.Veteran D with expiring contracts are like a warm blanket in front a fireplace in winter for coaches and GMs
Smith contract is done
Gagner Manning Gryba Brodziak done
Koskinen will either prove he is a starter or at least a 1a 1b level gor he’s getting bought out
Decent amount of those roster holes will be filled with ELC guys

A disposition of Russell and his replacement with an ELC or cheap 2nd contract d-man (Lagesson, Bear, Jones is imerative.

Without disposing of Russell, it doesn’t matter that Gagner, Manning, Smith, etc. are gone as they need to be replaced on the roster – fact is the team has 10 roster players committed to next season with apx $25M in cap space – $25M to add 13 players. After Nurse, apx $18M to add 12 players.

Absolutely, there are going to need to be some ELC players and this is the reason why I didn’t want to commit to a marginal top 6 guy as we need that $3M/$4M to acquire a more substantial player next off-season.

Hopefully a clean Russell disposition can be consummated saving apx $2.8M – $3.1M depending on replacement.

A Lucic bounce-back making that contract’s disposition at least in the realm of reasonableness would be massive.

Material Elvis

Side:
Godot – Eakins
Cassandra – Chiarelli
Ricki – Social Justice Warriors
Woodguy – his phone
OriginalPouzar – quote function
ArmchairGM – ???

Who can solve this first.

??? = OriginalPouzar

OriginalPouzar

HTJoe: I haven’t gotten around to getting an Athletic account yet (sorry LT… life is busy), but next season better look better by far than this offseason.

If Holland burns the 2019-2020 season, fine.I’ll check out by Halloween and the players have to endure another turd season (thanks Chia).

But if Holland also burns the 2020-2021 season, he will most certainly alienate Larsson and RNH, and maybe even McDavid at that point.

Expecting Holland to turn this steamer around in one offseason is unreasonable.But in 15 months, he better damn well have the Oilers moving substantially in the right direction…

There is this illusion of cap space next off-season but its apx $25M but with only a 10 player roster and 13 players needed. After Nurse, they are looking at apx $18M for 12 players.

Thankfully Russell’s NTC is further limited as its going to be essential that his $4M is replaced with an ELC (or 2nd contract in Lagesson/Bear).

I’m happy that Holland hasn’t committed to guys like Dzingel, Connolly, Nyquist, Johansson – don’t get me wrong, each of those guys would help this year and the Dzingel and Connolly contracts are reasonable, however, if they committed to one of those marginal top 6 players (middle 6 – top 6), it would inhibit the ability to acquire a more material/legit top 6 player next off-season.

The UFA market, aside from the Panarin’s, was full of marginal forwards – sure, a number of them would help a bit but not really move the needle for the ultimate goal – Holland only has so many bullets, cap currency, even next off-season, and I’m glad he didn’t commit any to a marginal player.

A Lucic bounce-back or some sort would be massive if it led to the contract being movable with only a bit of pain as opposed to egregious pain because it sure would be nice to get an extra $3M to $6M from a Lucic disposition.

Some young d-man popping ahead of reasonable expectations potentially allowing for a trade of an incumbent, although scares me, would also be something that would help a ton.

Next off-season will be tough for Holland but he’s got lots of time to plan (which he seems to be doing) and will be graded alot more stringently that this off-season, at least by me.

Glovjuice

OriginalPouzar: Lucic has brought nothing for two years and nothing at even strength for 3.

No, I don’t believe that getting in and laying a hit on a d-man a second and half after he’s transitioned the puck up the ice is bringing anything of substance – I would posit that was where 75% of hits were.

Neal was just as bad last year, acknowledged, but its been one year, not 3.

I’m not sure if Neal has a total inability to take a breakout pass at the blue line, pivot and efficiently move the puck up to a linemate.

The fact that hoping for a 12G/30P rebound is likely unreasonable due to 3 years of 5 on 5 awful says it all.

We need a bounce-back from Lucic as unreasonable as it seems. I do like this Lucic/Nuge/Kassian third line – in fact, I”m getting excited about it.

This is such an “is your pussy wet ?” hope – Lucic, Nuge and Kassian. #Happiness

Scungilli Slushy

The Oilers have lacked a system that suits the roster forever. Forwards not supporting the breakout, D not talented enough to overcome it, poor O zone strategy.

Basically the team was not often enough on the same page. We have seen the results.

Compounding that was the players acquired. Heavy brought a lot of heavy skaters.

Sure the Holland guys might be bottom 6, but they can move. I think that opens a lot of opportunities. Tippet can get buy in and his track says he tailors things to what he has.

If I had to bet I’d say the current lack of an 4th established top 4 D, a lack of RCs to help faceoffs, and of course another quality addition to the top 6 hurt, maybe goalies too.

I still expect a better group effort and result.

OmJo

Side:
Godot – Eakins
Cassandra – Chiarelli
Ricki – Social Justice Warriors
Woodguy – his phone
OriginalPouzar – quote function
ArmchairGM – ???

Who can solve this first.

Kevin Lowe.

Bulging Twine

Other Condors SH%:

Yamamoto 22.2
Currie 19.6
Marody 13.8
Russell 12.4
Hebig 11.1
Benson 8.7
Malone 7.9

smellyglove

Anyone read the, “By the numbers: Grading every team’s contract efficiency,” article at The Athletic by Dom Luszczyszyn? Not sure about his methodology, but at least he is transparent in publishing it. The Oilers receive middling marks, mostly and perhaps only because of the McDavid and Draisaitl contracts being so good.

Otherwise, not so good:comment image

Bulging Twine

Gambardella had a 29.9% Shooting percentage in Bakersfield last season.

From highlights (i.e. sketchy) he had a lot of in tight HD goals, which is great, you want your FW’s to go there but 29.9%…..I think Woodguy would take the under if that was the line for next season.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Side,

What is a fetish?

leadfarmer

ArmchairGM:
I hope everyone has had a chance to read this:

https://theathletic.com/1082184/2019/07/18/what-the-oilers-2020-cap-situation-suggests-about-ken-hol

Next off season isn’t looking too hot either.

Maybe maybe not
Someone takes Russell of our hands even if we retain a bit then obviously things will be different. Veteran D with expiring contracts are like a warm blanket in front a fireplace in winter for coaches and GMs
Smith contract is done
Gagner Manning Gryba Brodziak done
Koskinen will either prove he is a starter or at least a 1a 1b level g or he’s getting bought out
Decent amount of those roster holes will be filled with ELC guys

GMB3

ArmchairGM: Is the value difference between the players just 30% though?

Doubtful. I believe it was Willis who had a great article either on ON or the athletic talking about the value of goals. Basically how it’s incorrect to assume a 1 million dollar player scoring 5 goals has the same value as a 5 million dollar player scoring 25 goals.

There’s a better way to describe it but I’m dumb and had an exhausting day at work.

GMB3

OriginalPouzar: Again, noone was comparing Chiasson to Connolly – well, at least I certainly wasn’t.

I was solely comparing the use by a poster of a one-off anomaly season as a negative for one forward and not seeing the exact same thing (maybe even moreso) as an anomaly for his coveted player.

That’s the evidence that Connolly has had some better rates over the last 3 years of his career, and in conclusion we can posit that he is more likely to have a higher rate of production going forward given more ice time/better line mates/pp time. Chiasson had a much better opportunity in Edmonton in his career year. That seems to be a fairly easy thing that I’m sure we can all agree on, the quality of teammate and ice time was more beneficial to Chiassons career year. Connolly’s career year looks to be closer to his true talent level from the 5v5 scoring rates. Chiasson had much more.. help? For lack of a better word.

So overall I think Mr.Chair (as you put), looks at the numbers and thinks there is a higher probability that Connolly can repeat his year if not improve on it, where as Chiasson’s career year was more a product of opportunity, QoT, and unsustainable run of puck luck early at 5v5. That’s the difference I see between their career years. One seems to be more “lightning in the bottle” than the other, based on all the available info.

Kind of seems like arguing for the sake of arguing

Side

Godot – Eakins
Cassandra – Chiarelli
Ricki – Social Justice Warriors
Woodguy – his phone
OriginalPouzar – quote function
ArmchairGM – ???

Who can solve this first.

ArmchairGM

pts2pndr: While i would agree Connoly is the better player it could be argued that given the 30% higher contract and four year term vs 2 year term the actual value is pretty close to the same. If for example Connoly can no longer hold down a top six roster spotafter the two year period you have a 3.5 million bottom six player that is hard to move.The first two years at 30 percent less cap hit makes it, in my view, pretty close in value. The risk with Connoly on a 4 year contract given our current cap crunch would be concerning.

Is the value difference between the players just 30% though?