All Summer Long

In the days before Ken Holland, I outlined five important areas that needed to be addressed. At the time I assumed Keith Gretzky would take over a GM, and the order of the priorities was mine: Two scoring wingers, cap room, No. 3 center, top-4 RHD who can move the puck, and a backup goaltender.

We are approaching the end of the busy period of the 2019 offseason. Not all the work is done, hell many Oilers fans are waiting for a Milan Lucic-James Neal trade at this hour, a trade that may never come. Assuming he is done: How did Ken Holland do this summer?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • New Lowetide: Is there anyone left in free agency who can help the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
  • Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

Two Scoring Wingers

My preference was Brett Connolly, and he went for a reasonable dollar but the term (four years) was dear. Holland’s two big scoring additions were Alex Chiasson (22 goals) and Joakim Nygard (21 goals in 52 SHL games for Farjestad BK).

I think it’s fair to say Holland fell shy in this area. If he had signed Connolly, or dealt for James Neal, we could have argued reasonably that Holland addressed a major need. Even Neal & Chiasson would have received a passing grade from me. Holland had limited resources, so I don’t think you can set his summer on fire for the moves made, but it’s short of the goal. Holland may be factoring in Tyler Benson as an option and that’s (imo) reasonable.

Cap Room

Sekera buyout was a start but there’s miles to go. If Holland doesn’t use the cap dollars from Sekera that’s an unforced error. I would have given him a gold star if Holland had found a way out from under the Lucic contract.

No. 3 Centre

His acquisitions who could fill this role are Markus Granlund and Gaetan Haas. Haas is a complete wildcard, Granlund is more effective on the wing.

Top 4 RHD

Joel Persson was signed by Peter Chiarelli, Evan Bouchard and Ethan Bear drafted by Bob Green. Incomplete. I do like the possibility of Kris Russell moving to LH side on third pair, but assuming that will happen is a leap of faith.

Backup Goalie

Mike Smith was the choice, it seemed destined once Dave Tippett was hired as coach. The math on this is poor, it’s a ‘gut feel’ acquisition and this is a math blog so there’s no defense the author will offer.

Can the system save the season?

Edmonton has enormous riches at the top, with McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge a good bet to score over over 100 goals (119 one year ago). The 2017-18 team received 90 goals from that trio and another 107 goals from the rest of the forward crew. Last season’s forwards (outside the top three) scored 80, and that includes 22 from Alex Chiasson and 15 from Zack Kassian.

Scoring wingers (Benson, Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Marody) could help, maybe one of the kid blue spikes in a big way. Maybe Ryan McLeod emerges as the No. 3 centre, and Shane Starrett finds Rod Serling and buys x-ray eyes.

Maybe the Oilers trade Lucic for Neal and the trade snaps the chain back into place. I still think Tippett was the biggest acquisition of the offseason. Holland’s other bets, the player bets, appear conservative and uninspired. He didn’t have a lot of room to wheel, and Connolly, as good as he is, can’t be heralded as a modern Hossa.

OILERS 50-MAN (50)

The Oilers have two slides, taking the roster to 48, and Jesse Puljujarvi, who regular readers will know is sitting in limbo with Jimmy Cliff. I’ve included Puljujarvi as usual, he comes off the 50-man the moment he signs in Europe or is traded.

What would I add to this group? A 20-goal winger and a 22-year old Evan Bouchard, plus a goalie now that Michael Parkatti is writing again.

JOSH ARCHIBALD

An intelligent signing. Archibald can help on the PK, scores well based on linemates and usage, and comes at a fair price. It’s important to value this player, even as he doesn’t address the team’s needs (No. 3 center and scoring winger). A contract signing of this kind brings roster clarity, and it’s more likely we see a Jesse Puljujarvi deal (imo) now that the RW depth chart is set. I see it as Kassian-Chiasson-Archibald-Gagner, your mileage may vary.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show today, TSN1260, beginning at 10 this morning. Bruce McCurdy will be by from The Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal to talk Archibald, Apollo 11 and other world events. Kris Abbott from OddsShark will pop in to talk about in-game betting the impact of a classic match like the men’s final at Wimbledon. Finally, Mark Zecchino will join us from Golf Talk Canada about The Open. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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217 Responses to "All Summer Long"

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  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Two things:

    1) I’ve included Puljujarvi as usual, he comes off the 50-man the moment he signs in Europe or is traded

    Why are you including JP, he hasn’t signed?

    2) Your mock draft is awful

    Bookie!.

  2. russ99 says:

    IMO, the purposes of signing all the bottom six projected players to one-year deals are:

    1. Fix one of the biggest issues of last season: lack of NHL-quality wingers and add players who can play within Tippett’s 5-man based systems, improving our wing play overall over last season even if the goals for don’t dramatically improve.

    2. Fostering competition where ice time is earned, not given by reputation, draft order, projections, etc. Someone (hopefully more than one player) should rise higher in the rotation akin to Aberg’s improvement last year.

    3. Keep the kids on the farm to ripen until they’re needed due to injury or lack of performance by others. That all the FAs can be stashed in the AHL with little to no cap loss reinforces this idea.

    4. Get us at least partially out of cap hell next summer, even more so if we can move Lucic, and a younger defensemen zooms Russell by the deadline, or we move him next summer when his trade protection lessens with a low-salary last year making him a target for cap rich, cash poor teams.

    The idea being that players from the system will eventually earn spots replacing future RFAs and UFAs, so we have even more room under the cap.

  3. condormcdavis says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    EVIL

  4. Psyche says:

    It has been awhile since I’ve seen WoodGuy as the first (and only) post!

    I like that Holland has addressed the bottom 6. Fix what you can. I welcome the defensive and PK potential of Archibald and Granlund. I suspect they will be well appreciated by Tippett. Jurco and Nygard are low risk bets. If either player delivers it is a win. I believe Marody has the most potential (compared to Cave and Khaira) for the 3rd line centre role. If he improves his skating strength a bit this summer he should be able to win that role.

    Speaking of Cave, in your opinions, what is his ceiling? What strengths do y’all think he brings to the line-up? I’ve heard lots about his character, work ethic and grit. Those are fine for soft skills, but does he offer hockey skills to help the team?

  5. DocFan says:

    That Parkatti article is really excellent – thanks for sharing.
    I think there are some limitations there – you could make several arguments against the conclusion that Koskinen isn’t starter Quality
    – Small sample size of games, especially when considering the comparison to goalies who have played way more than 60 games. I think you can find 60 game segments where goalies don’t play at a started level that will look similar to Koskinen (i.e. Carey Price 2017-2018)
    – It is possible there are logical explanations for Koskinen’s poor performance at the beginning of season (adjustment to new league, new rink, new culture, new team) and end of season (tired from being over played with no rest). So there is hope Koskinen may actually represent the middle of the chart of an average NHL starter. That still does not however explain the timing of the contract or it’s monetary value.

    Lastly, I really wonder if PC knew that the axe was about to fall, and this was his way of screwing the team just before leaving. The Oilers PR machine had to cover up by saying we were all involved.

    I think if Smith can play 30 games this year at average level, then Koskinen will represent more of the middle of the chart that the ends. Or at least I hope so!

  6. Silver Streak says:

    Programs…Programs…getcher Programs here…..Programs will be needed this year….

    I think all of 5 forwards….Granlund, Nygard, Haas, Marody, and Archibald along with
    3 D…..Lagesson, Person, and Bouchard will play many meaningful games this year.
    Mistakes will be many, but they will be learning a system of success together.

    This team will be the youngest and will show the most improvement year over year in the League.

    Should make for very interesting watching.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nope, Holland didn’t grab an established top 6 scoring winger. Of course, he never actually expressed that such a player was his priority and really only spoke to “a 20 goal scorer” in response to questions from the media on the same and generally with responses like “we’re always looking”.

    Holland expressed that he was going to get a goalie in free agency and look to acquire some skill and speed and depth in the bottom 6. He did exactly that.

    In Holland’s post-July 1 presser, he expressed that he still needed a 3C and I think that is the one move that can reasonably be expected – there are many options out there – Sheehan, Lindberg, Boyle, Marleau, Brassard and even a trade for a Cody Eakin or so.

    Yes, I know many are disappointed with the lack of acquisition at the top end and I totally understand that. I understand that none of the moves individually move the needle and, potentially, don’t move the needle in aggregate.

    At the same time, Ken Holland has been clear that the ultimate goal looks past this current year and he was not going to bleed future assets or commit future cap to marginal upgrades in order to improve this year if he thinks it will hinder future improvement.

    Ken Holland understands the current situation and he also understands that, just like this year, there will be teams needing to divest of good players in the next few years in order to get cap compliant.

    The organization was not in a good position to take advantage of those cap crunch teams this off-season – sure, they could have added an extra year or $750K to grab a Connolly or a Nyquist but would such an acquisition move the needle to build a contender? Connolly is a marginal top 6 player at best and Nyquist is already approaching decline years.

    What Holland did do was not commit cap to the future so that he has it available in order to make better acquisitions next off-season and/or the off-season after. I’d rather be patient and grab a true top 6 forward next year than commit to a marginal one this year, for example.

    Yup, maybe it will be another painful season.

    Most aren’t OK with that.

    I am OK because I am here for the Cups!

  8. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    DocFan: Lastly, I really wonder if PC knew that the axe was about to fall, and this was his way of screwing the team just before leaving. The Oilers PR machine had to cover up by saying we were all involved.

    If Chia left under these conditions, it would behoove the Oilers PR machine to let the world know that in addition to being a completely incompetent GM, he is vindictive and should never work in the game again.

    But let’s hope someone hires him.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Opening up some cap room was essential whether it ends up being spent now or not.

    It was needed in order to at least be in the conversation for the free agents that Holland was looking at as well as to sign a goalie and the players they have.

    Not to mention, its essential to have some cap room going in to the season – not even for acquisitions but for day to day management of the roster. Remember, a player that is banged up and on IR for two weeks doesn’t relieve the team of his cap hit – it opens up a roster spot but the cap hit is still there. If they only have $500K of cap space and Nuge is out for two weeks, they couldn’t even bring up a Marody to replace Nuge on the roster.

    I still don’t really agree with the Sekera buyout in order to open up that cap space but I’m at peace with it now. I was hopeful of a Russell disposition instead but that wasn’t in the cards (probably due to the trade protection issues).

    Agree or disagree with the method of opening up $3M, doing so was 100% required even if they go in to the season with the current roster.

  10. JJS says:

    That starboard quality will make grown men weep

  11. PennersPancakes says:

    Psyche: Speaking of Cave, in your opinions, what is his ceiling? What strengths do y’all think he brings to the line-up?

    I dont think theres a lot to offer with Cave. He is someone who can cheaply sit in the press box and play the occasional game. If hes in the press box at least Benson/Marody isnt? Unlikely to lose you a game but even more unlikely to win you one. I personally can’t think of anything that stands out but the entire bottom six last year was awful meaning that might not be a fair assessment.

    Hes only played 56 games so a lot can change but his 8 points and 60 shots suggest there isnt much offense at the NHL level. If you go by Corsi/Fenwick he is ever so slightly positive at least!

  12. ArmchairGM says:

    “In the days before Ken Holland, I outlined five important areas that needed to be addressed. At the time I assumed Keith Gretzky would take over a GM, and the order of the priorities was mine: Two scoring wingers, cap room, No. 3 center, top-4 RHD who can move the puck, and a backup goaltender.”

    Holland is oh-for-five.

    That should drive all the apologists wild.

  13. commonfan29 says:

    Nicholson – a guy who loved Chia’s plan so much that he gave him another year to further cripple the roster – basically abandoned any kind of hard work on his GM search by opting to throw a pile of money at Holland big enough that the guy had to cancel his retirement.

    Bob isn’t creative or progressive about the business of hockey, it’s entirely possible he hired a guy without bothering to really investigate whether the game had passed him by or not – not that he’d likely be able to tell anyway.

    This team right now looks like a squad that will be locked in for 31st place by Halloween (something like 1-11-3 should do it), which will make CONNORWATCH the biggest talking point for the 2019-20 NHL season.

    Things can always get worse.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think we are looking at Benning to start the season at 2RD and Russell at 3LD.

    Stats show that Benning has fared better than many of us think in the second pairing and, assuming he’s fully healthy, I am once again willing to start the season with him there. He’s now getting to the age and experience where, if he’s going to solidify himself as a top 4 guy, its time.

    My eye test on Benning has him better than most and the numbers do seem to back that up.

    I’m rooting for him because, if he can handle the 2RD, it really helps the overall defensive group depth chart.

  15. dustrock says:

    If Koskinen was a legit starter, I wouldn’t mind the bonus-laden bet on Smith as much.

    What if it’s clear by November 30th that both Koskinen and Smith aren’t starters?

    Where’s our Murray or Binnington to save us?

  16. Woogie63 says:

    Here is why the Oiler’s locked Koskinen up when they did …

    26 goalies have signed contracts since July 1

    1 Starter – Bobrovsky
    2 good 1A – Valamov, Lehner
    3 good bets – Korpsalo, Mrazek, Binnington
    3 30+ stop gaps – Smith, Talbot, McElhennay
    17 Meh

  17. Alpine says:

    At the stage of acceptance where I’m now hoping Tippett can Jack Adams his team into the playoffs. At least in the sense that he’s done it before, therefore it’s a possibility.

    I do still have my doubts that the Deepest Bottom Six in the league will provide any sort of scoring depth, while I see the broader portions of fanbase currently hoping that any three of them at any time won’t be in over their heads in the top six.

    Optimism is fine, but Holland deserves a C grade at best here, and even then he spread out Sekera’s cap hit over four years so the argument that he’s playing it safe for the future doesn’t quite hold up.

  18. Woogie63 says:

    dustrock:
    If Koskinen was a legit starter, I wouldn’t mind the bonus-laden bet on Smith as much.

    What if it’s clear by November 30th that both Koskinen and Smith aren’t starters?

    Where’s our Murray or Binnington to save us?

    who were Murray or Binnington before they got there chance – answer Shane Starlett

  19. Alpine says:

    Woogie63:
    Here is why the Oiler’s locked Koskinen up when they did…

    26 goalies have signed contracts since July 1

    1 Starter – Bobrovsky
    2 good 1A – Valamov, Lehner
    3 good bets – Korpsalo, Mrazek, Binnington
    3 30+ stop gaps – Smith, Talbot, McElhennay
    17 Meh

    All the UFA goalies are on better deals than Koskinen, outside of Bob. It wasn’t locking Kosk up that the issue, it was the damn terms of the deal.

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Of course the players signed are taking up cap space. The Oilers have to submit a 23-man roster of players chosen out of their 50-man list, which currently has just 1 spot left on it (1 being held for JP or his replacement and 1 for future maneuvering). Haas was given express assurances of an NHL paycheque and I’d be surprised if Nygard wasn’t given the same. Jurco is the only guy who may spend significant time in the AHL.

    Any of those depth $1M signings do not prohibit any other signing because of used cap space because each and every one of them can be sent to the AHL and the cap hit fully buried.

    The cap space used on each and every one of them can disappear in an instant.

    Yes, they take a spot on the 50 (unless scooped on waivers or going back to Europe) but there is no cap issue with them. Not to mention that, from accounts, there was interest across the league in both Hass and Nygard and likely can be moved for a late pick.

  21. blainer says:

    One has to believe that Holland is looking at the same lineup as the fans are and has to have a hard time believing he can get this team to the playoff’s.

    I am going to take a leap of faith and assume he is waiting for all those RFA’s to get signed and then boom.. get that player we need for a pick and Jesse.

    IMO if it turns out there are no options for Jesse I hope he is working his ass off to get into Big league shape cardio wise and will not be dead tired 12 seconds into a shift. I am hoping that injury he had was limiting his ability to train as he just wasn’t skating like we all know he can.

    Not sure if his lack of effort was because of an injury.. a lack of ability to train because of said injury or my worse fear he was just flat out lazy and not interested.. Possibly because he felt he should be played by the coach in better situations.. of course this is all JMO and I do admit I know nothing about how to be a pro hockey player !!

  22. Eh Team says:

    dustrock:
    If Koskinen was a legit starter, I wouldn’t mind the bonus-laden bet on Smith as much.

    What if it’s clear by November 30th that both Koskinen and Smith aren’t starters?

    Where’s our Murray or Binnington to save us?

    Oilers have a lot of issues, but maybe the worst is that their goaltending is very poor and there is no plan B.

    The next big risk is that one of McD, Drai or Nuge will be injured. If that happens, last overall is firmly in sight.

    The plus side with having too many generic 4th line players is that some of them will surely turn out (much like Chiasson last year). Management just has to be knowledgeable enough to recognize who is decent and flush the non-performers out of the picture quickly (I’m thinking of guys like Cave, Brodziak, etc.). At least a lot of their new ‘cheap’ players can skate.

  23. oilguy6969 says:

    While I agree with your centre depth chart as it stands, I have a suspicion Holland has Brodz a tad higher (he loves him some veterans) and Coops a tad lower at the moment. Be interesting come training camp to see how things play out.

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Two things:

    1) I’ve included Puljujarvi as usual, he comes off the 50-man the moment he signs in Europe or is traded

    Why are you including JP, he hasn’t signed?

    2) Your mock draft is awful

    Bookie!.

    3. When JP signs a two-way deal he won’t be added to the 50 man.

  25. tileguy says:

    Good gawd, how do you evaluate 15 bottom 6 players in the preseason? If you show well in the games it will be because of weak competition (see rattie, yamo). Do Kens guys have the upper hand, what will be the criteria as to who stays with the big club?

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: 3.5M + 500k is 4.25M now?

    Acquiring above-replacement-level players isn’t handcuffing anything. You know that cap becomes less of an issue next summer and the one after.

    You are going to be condescending over a math mistake? Really?

    Yes and no on cap space becoming less of an issue next summer. $25M in cap space but 13 players to add. $7M for Nurse leaves $18M for 12 players.

    I do believe there will be more cap space – Russell will be disposed of, more graduating prospects will be ready with ELCs or cheap second contract, however, cap space is still at a premium next off-season.

    Again, as I’ve said, if they spend with term on marginal players for the top 6 now, it will inhibit spending for term for actual top 6 players in the future, like next off-season. Connolly is a marginal top 6 player at best – if they signed him for term, they likely wouldn’t be able to add another next off-season

  27. ArmchairGM says:

    dustrock:
    If Koskinen was a legit starter, I wouldn’t mind the bonus-laden bet on Smith as much.

    What if it’s clear by November 30th that both Koskinen and Smith aren’t starters?

    Where’s our Murray or Binnington to save us?

    In Bakersfield. Name’s Starrett.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Haas was given assurances of NHL time, Nygard may have as well. Are you forgetting that these are Holland signings – why go to all of the trouble of signing players and then discarding them a few weeks later? It won’t happen and you know it, you’re being intentionally obtuse.

    Right, so if Hass isn’t good enough, subject to a few weeks of adjustment in the NHL, he’s back to Europe.

    Boom no cap hit implication.

    I’m sure he was signed with the intent of making the team and, if he’s good enough, great, maybe even a value contract given how cheap it is. If he’s not good enough, he’s not on the team and his cap hit is gone (and potentially the contract itself).

  29. Leonnor McDraivid says:

    At this point, who cares? Leave it to the Oilers to feed us the same old year after year and season after season. All these promises of big change and as usual…nothing happens. I see other teams around the league coming up with creative ways to change personnel and the Oilers do nothing as usual. Simply making a coaching change and changing scouts is not going to do anything. We’ve already seen this movie the last decade and the movie never ends well for us. Yet, the Oilers management blows another season and then comes out in the press and promise changes and then the next season they have another livid fan base. What is the difference between what Holland has done with this team this off-season and what Chiarelli did the past two off-seasons?…Nothing. They both asked for patience and to trust the process and the team breaks our hearts. I am so tired of tuning into Oilers radio, reading articles, reading blogs, and following this team with my heart, only to be fed the same old BS year after year. I am done being patient and I am done with trusting the never ending process. I am definitely done with being fed with nothing but words with no actions. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl must be seeing what the Maple Leafs have done this past season and then look at their own team shaking their heads. These two young men work their tails off, only to be rewarded with another lottery team.

  30. ArmchairGM says:

    This should be required reading:

    https://theathletic.com/1059795/2019/07/02/willis-oilers-gm-ken-holland-promises-long-term-rewards-for-an-approach-light-on-short-term-improvements/

    “Right now all that can be said with certainty is that his early work is a mixed bag and the roster today looks a lot like the one which delivered a 25th-place finish a season ago.”

  31. barry.moore23 says:

    The Oilers are here in Glendale on November 24, 2019 and February 4, 2020. If any one comes down and wants to say hello or whatever catch me on twitter @barry.moore23 (very creative, i know).

  32. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Right, so if Hass isn’t good enough, subject to a few weeks of adjustment in the NHL, he’s back to Europe.

    Boom no cap hit implication.

    I’m sure he was signed with the intent of making the team and, if he’s good enough, great, maybe even a value contract given how cheap it is.If he’s not good enough, he’s not on the team and his cap hit is gone (and potentially the contract itself).

    Sure, his cap hit and possibly his spot on the 50-man will be gone – but by then it’ll be December. How many players will be available then? Just waiver wire guys.

    This isn’t a great plan and you know it.

  33. dustrock says:

    Help us Shane Starrett, you’re our only hope.

  34. Alpine says:

    ArmchairGM: Sure, his cap hit and possibly his spot on the 50-man will be gone – but by then it’ll be December. How many players will be available then? Just waiver wire guys.

    This isn’t a great plan and you know it.

    I generally agree but there were a few top six or middle six forwards traded mid season last year.

  35. blainer says:

    commonfan29:
    Nicholson – a guy who loved Chia’s plan so much that he gave him another year to further cripple the roster – basically abandoned any kind of hard work on his GM search by opting to throw a pile of money at Holland big enough that the guy had to cancel his retirement.

    Bob isn’t creative or progressive about the business of hockey, it’s entirely possible he hired a guy without bothering to really investigate whether the game had passed him by or not – not that he’d likely be able to tell anyway.

    This team right now looks like a squad that will be locked in for 31st place by Halloween (something like 1-11-3 should do it), which will make CONNORWATCH the biggest talking point for the 2019-20 NHL season.

    Things can always get worse.

    Ageee 100%. I have wondered what BN is still doing here. He is just as much to blame IMO as Chia. This is a total shit show of an organization IMO.

    I agree a younger GM would have been a much wiser move. The game has changed and younger GM’s have played the game the way it has changed.

    It’s always been my opinion that in business you must adapt to change in order to grow or your business will fail and it’s the same way in sports.

    We cannot continue to make stupid mistakes. The hiring of Chia was beyond a mistake and if it had been any other type of business they would have been shut down long ago !!

  36. PennersPancakes says:

    Leonnor McDraivid: Simply making a coaching change and changing scouts is not going to do anything. We’ve already seen this movie the last decade and the movie never ends well for us.

    The last GM came in and did the complete opposite of that and I for one did not enjoy the experience.
    – Traded 1st overall Taylor Hall for arguably weaker return
    – Traded mid 1st round and early 2 second round pick for a bust AHL defenseman
    – Signed an aging power forward to a long term buyout proof contract that arguably had negative value at the time of signing.
    – Traded one of the few top six wingers (Eberle) for a 3C and cap space which he didnt use and snowballed that into Ryan Spooner who is already out of the league.
    – Traded Caggiula for a healthy scratch AHL defenseman with a bloated contract.
    – Signed Koskinen to an extension way beyond his merit/league value when compared to other FA signings.

    Yes Holland hasnt done anything crazy yet. Hasnt robbed another team blind in a trade or hard balled a FA for half his worth. So far he has made small bets with his limited resources in his couple months on the job. The season hasnt even started yet. If Chia had only made scouting and coaching changes this team would be better for it.

  37. texmex says:

    This is probably going to be a very unpopular query, please keep the bashing to a minimum, but…

    Is there any scenario out there where you trade RNH + JP + high pick or prospect (or something of that effect) that gets you two top 6 natural wingers back in return? My logic is:

    1.) RNH is a better center than winger, but he cannot win an important FO to save his life. He is 38.3% on FO on the PK in the last 3 years.

    2.) RNH has 2 years left on his deal and I do not believe he will resign here, especially if this season goes and most of us predict, picking top 10 again.

    3.) I believe Drai has to play 2C and RNH is too good for 3C. That and see item 1 above.

    4.) Adding 2 top 6 wingers gives two effective lines and you can cobble together a solid 3rd and 4th line from the plethora of bottom 6 players we have.

    Would Detroit do Mantha + Athanasiou? Highly unlikley

    Athanasiou – Mcdavid – Kassian
    Mantha – Draisaitl – Chaisson
    Nygard – Brassard or similar – Archibald/Gagner
    Looch – Cave – Archibald/Gagner

  38. stevebergeron97 says:

    Can Lafreniere play wing? 😉

  39. PennersPancakes says:

    blainer: We cannot continue to make stupid mistakes. The hiring of Chia was beyond a mistake and if it had been any other type of business they would have been shut down long ago !!

    Agreed on all counts. I don’t think BN gets enough blame either, it is my belief is he in way over his head in the NHL.

    I dont follow the other big four as much, but does any other league have an old boys club like the NHL does? Before Dubas and Chayka it seems every GM was recycled garbage from another team. The lack of fresh blood and the rewarding of past failures seems bizarre!

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: so if Hass isn’t

    I’ll tell you what Haas isn’t: he isn’t an avocado.

  41. ArmchairGM says:

    Alpine: I generally agree but there were a few top six or middle six forwards traded mid season last year.

    But will we have the cap space to fit them in?

  42. Shane says:

    texmex,

    Trading RNH for a top six winger is moot imo because RNH IS a top six winger..

    Unless you’re gaining cap space or you want a different ‘type’ of player it’s a lateral move.

  43. texmex says:

    Shane:
    texmex,

    Trading RNH for a top six winger is moot imo because RNH IS a top six winger..

    Fair. I just do not see RNH as an effective winger and he is a better C than LW, and I believe he walks in two years.

    If trading him gets a more effective winger (think 1st shot scorer) under team control (i.e. RFA), I’d consider it.

    Edit – Just seen your edit. So yes, adding a winger with a different dimension

    Edit 2 – there’s also the argument you can never have too many C’s, especially if McD or Drai get hurt… sooooooo who the hell knows ;p

  44. powerploy says:

    I like what Holland is doing. I didn’t like Sekera move but he waited and likely it was his only reasonable move. He maybe playing things conservatively but that’s whats required right now.
    *He signing short term deals looking towards the future
    *shoring up the bottom
    *trying to improve quality of specialty players (penalty kill)
    *looking for improved competition to stir the pot
    *looking for improved speed or quickness
    *looking for players with character, hustle and team players
    *looking to get several players hoping they can deposit 10 plus goals rather a bigger name which is one injury away from nothing at all.
    * holding tough on jesse
    *give the prospects a chance if they deserve it and can improve the team

    Likely he’ll make one more move before season (3c?) (and possibly JP trade but doubt it). But I think his bigger move will be made In-season when he finds out what kind of team and chemistry the coaching can whip up early on then he’ll identify his biggest current need and if a deal he likes becomes available he’ll trigger it. Maybe they’ll make playoffs maybe not but its steady as she goes. next year start the process over again looking for better players again, and likely with more cap space available.

    I also think the goalies need to be given more of a chance on this team people are 2 quick to want 2 get rid of them. You don’t decide on a goalie in one season, especially if new to the league.

  45. letmycamerongo says:

    Hearing NYR are trying to shed cap and that Buchnevich and Namestnikov are both on the block. This is the answer to our prayers isn’t it?

  46. ArmchairGM says:

    texmex:
    This is probably going to be a very unpopular query, please keep the bashing to a minimum, but…

    Is there any scenario out there where you trade RNH + JP + high pick or prospect (or something of that effect) that gets you two top 6 natural wingers back in return?

    Sure, but it depends on who those wingers are and the high pick or prospect going out.

  47. PennersPancakes says:

    texmex,

    I think RNH has even commented before that he prefers to play center. I think its pretty much a wash/slightly more value than one of Mantha/AA while Jesse is a lesser value.

    Both Detroit players are in contract years but still under RFA control though so while their cap hits work this year, youd unfortunately hope their performance means a large raise.

    AA and McDavids speed could be lethal. Drai and Mantha would be a combo of two big talented boys. I love Nuge but would definitely do that trade.

  48. ArmchairGM says:

    stevebergeron97:
    Can Lafreniere play wing?

    We might finish last, but Bettman will make sure we pick 4th. 🙁

  49. ArmchairGM says:

    letmycamerongo:
    Hearing NYR are trying to shed cap and that Buchnevich and Namestnikov are both on the block. This is the answer to our prayers isn’t it?

    NYR wants to shed cap so they won’t take equal money back. In order to fit those guys in under the cap we’d have to make a separate deal just dumping money – say Gagner + pick out for future considerations.

    But the players are certainly interesting. Unfortunately they aren’t 4th liners so Holland probably isn’t interested.

  50. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Nope, Holland didn’t grab an established top 6 scoring winger.Of course, he never actually expressed that such a player was his priority and really only spoke to “a 20 goal scorer” in response to questions from the media on the same and generally with responses like “we’re always looking”.

    Holland expressed that he was going to get a goalie in free agency and look to acquire some skill and speed and depth in the bottom 6. He did exactly that.

    In Holland’s post-July 1 presser, he expressed that he still needed a 3C and I think that is the one move that can reasonably be expected – there are many options out there – Sheehan, Lindberg, Boyle, Marleau, Brassard and even a trade for a Cody Eakin or so.

    Yes, I know many are disappointed with the lack of acquisition at the top end and I totally understand that.I understand that none of the moves individually move the needle and, potentially, don’t move the needle in aggregate.

    At the same time, Ken Holland has been clear that the ultimate goal looks past this current year and he was not going to bleed future assets or commit future cap to marginal upgrades in order to improve this year if he thinks it will hinder future improvement.

    Ken Holland understands the current situation and he also understands that, just like this year, there will be teams needing to divest of good players in the next few years in order to get cap compliant.

    The organization was not in a good position to take advantage of those cap crunch teams this off-season – sure, they could have added an extra year or $750K to grab a Connolly or a Nyquist but would such an acquisition move the needle to build a contender?Connolly is a marginal top 6 player at best and Nyquist is already approaching decline years.

    What Holland did do was not commit cap to the future so that he has it available in order to make better acquisitions next off-season and/or the off-season after.I’d rather be patient and grab a true top 6 forward next year than commit to a marginal one this year, for example.

    Yup, maybe it will be another painful season.

    Most aren’t OK with that.

    I am OK because I am here for the Cups!

    And here we are again.

    There’s always next year.

    I find it quite exhausting OP.

  51. Leonnor McDraivid says:

    PennersPancakes,

    During the season when Chiarelli made his major moves including trading Hall, the Oilers actually made the playoffs. The Oilers decline started when Sekera got injured. Chiarelli did nothing to replace Sekera. Instead, he made a bunch of smaller moves hoping that the competition would allow other defenders to step up into the top 4…like Benning. Sound familiar? This is exactly what the Oilers are doing right now under Holland. It doesn’t work. The Oilers need legit players.

  52. russ99 says:

    DocFan,

    It’s a bit iffy to me, since if you look at the curve the the conclusions were made from, the drop seems to directly correspond to when Klefbom and Russell were out for a month plus, and yet this wasn’t identified as a factor.

    SV% isn’t something that is generated by a goalie alone.

    Other than the high shot issues that are well documented, I’d throw Koskinen a bit of a curve, since we didn’t have our top 6 D playing well much if at all the second half of the year and our wingers were especially subpar on the defensive end of the ice.

  53. jp says:

    Psyche:

    Speaking of Cave, in your opinions, what is his ceiling? What strengths do y’all think he brings to the line-up? I’ve heard lots about his character, work ethic and grit. Those are fine for soft skills, but does he offer hockey skills to help the team?

    It’s hard to know since he’s posted basically zero offense so far, and got outscored pretty badly last year.

    But the underlying numbers were very good across the board. Another poster mentioned ‘slightly positive’, but considering the rest of the team that’s actually very impressive. He lead the Oilers forwards in most categories, including scoring chances I think (with poor line mates and tough zone starts).

    It may not translate to sustained success (or may not repeat), but I think there’s a chance he could be a really useful bottom 6 player for the Oilers.

  54. highgloveside says:

    I wouldn’t say Holland failed at adding top 6 wingers. If he added almost any of the signed UFA’s, that contract would be considered an overpay in money or term. I would rather no move at all than an overpay, especially with the team having such cap issues already.

    PC was rash and quick to make his trades and signings, almost all were utter failures. Holland is calculated and will only make additions that are good for the Oilers on the ice, but also for the cap both short term and long term. If PC had some of Hollands patience, we would not be in this mess.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger: And here we are again.

    There’s always next year.

    I find it quite exhausting OP.

    I wish it wasn’t the case but its the situation that prior management has put them in.

    Trying to “fast-track” with risky moves for marginal upgrades has a probably effect of just keeping the organization in the same state of indefinite purgatory. Holland could have taken more risks and could have grabbed a marginal “top 6 winger” and even an established one (at a high asset and re-signing cost) but that doesn’t move the needle towards the goal.

    The 2020 first and Jones for Spurgeon would help this year but it sure wouldn’t help build a cup contender – not with those assets out and the re-signing cost.

    If Russell and Bear for Ehlers was available, I’m sure it would be done but I’m sure that is not available.

    If a 2nd and Berglund (or Bear or Lagesson) was available for Gusev (with a reasonable contract negotiated), it would likely be done but its likely not available.

    I’m excited that cap hasn’t been committed to the Connolly’s of the worse for the top 6 because that is a marginal upgrade that uses future bullets. The team will have the ability to take advantage of cap crunch team in due course and that will be the time to pounce.

  56. godot10 says:

    Leonnor McDraivid:
    PennersPancakes,

    During the season when Chiarelli made his major moves including trading Hall, the Oilers actually made the playoffs. The Oilers decline started when Sekera got injured. Chiarelli did nothing to replace Sekera. Instead, he made a bunch of smaller moves hoping that the competition would allow other defenders to step up into the top 4…like Benning. Sound familiar? This is exactly what the Oilers are doing right now under Holland. It doesn’t work. The Oilers need legit players.

    Not quite true. Chiarelli and McLellan sent their best middle six wingers and 4th line wingers packing after the playoff run. Eberle. Pouliot, Pitlick The ones who actually had a pulse at even strength offensively.

  57. Reja says:

    DocFan:
    That Parkatti article is really excellent – thanks for sharing.
    I think there are some limitations there – you could make several arguments against the conclusion that Koskinen isn’t starter Quality
    – Small sample size of games, especially when considering the comparison to goalies who have played way more than 60 games. I think you can find 60 game segments where goalies don’t play at a started level that will look similar to Koskinen (i.e. Carey Price 2017-2018)
    – It is possible there are logical explanations for Koskinen’s poor performance at the beginning of season (adjustment to new league, new rink, new culture, new team) and end of season (tired from being over played with no rest). So there is hope Koskinen may actually represent the middle of the chart of an average NHL starter. That still does not however explain the timing of the contract or it’s monetary value.

    Lastly, I really wonder if PC knew that the axe was about to fall, and this was his way of screwing the team just before leaving. The Oilers PR machine had to cover up by saying we were all involved.

    I think if Smith can play 30 games this year at average level, then Koskinen will represent more of the middle of the chart that the ends. Or at least I hope so!

    “Stop the presses” we have somebody else willing to give Kosh a honest chance before he’s run out of the City Of Champions. Between Kosh, Smith and Tippett’s system a lot of Debbie Downers will be back peddling.

  58. Primetime says:

    Woogie63:
    Here is why the Oiler’s locked Koskinen up when they did…

    26 goalies have signed contracts since July 1

    1 Starter – Bobrovsky
    2 good 1A – Valamov, Lehner
    3 good bets – Korpsalo, Mrazek, Binnington
    3 30+ stop gaps – Smith, Talbot, McElhennay
    17 Meh

    Locking him up wasn’t the issue. Locking him up at 4.5×3 years with a NMC was the problem. No one, NOONE, was going to hand him a starters job, let alone a multi year contract. Chia was negotiating against the voices in his head again. Inexcusable regardless of what the rest of the crop looked like

  59. Coiler says:

    Ladies and gents, Holland is walking a tightrope with this club. Lean too much this way or that way and the club will fall off and the results will be like they were the last few years with Chiarelli. Who wants that?

    Let’s be honest with ourselves, Holland was handed a shit sandwich; pure and simple. I doubt there are many who could turn that sandwich into filet mignon in a span of a summer. To think otherwise is to not think realistically. Everyone knows this team, as presently constituted, is not a playoff bound team so why not celebrate what we do have and what positive potential is coming down the pipeline.

    Waxing nostalgic of the teams of yesteryear or what could have been if this trade hadn’t occurred or if that signing hadn’t occurred ins’t going to help at this point. It’s in the past. Let’s look forward and enjoy these dog days of summer.

  60. Primetime says:

    Reja: “Stop the presses” we have somebody else willing to give Kosh a honest chance before he’s run out of the City Of Champions. Between Kosh, Smith and Tippett’s system a lot of Debbie Downers will be back peddling.

    That’s pretty disingenuous.

    I’m sure all Oiler fans hope Koskinen has a Vezina winning year. That doesn’t excuse the contract based on when it was negotiated and signed. A more realistic cap hit would allow the rest of the team to improve as well, and there was no reason the contract shouldn’t have been more reasonable.

    Kucherov just won the Hart, but the team was spectacular because they could load up with players based on his lowball contract negotiated by Stevie Y. Yes they have paid him now, but they took full advantage during the years his cap hit was low. It doesn’t matter if Koskinen wins the Vézina, it should have been with a Cup contending team cause they could load up due to his low cap hit.

  61. Washingtron says:

    While I completely understand and support the reasoning behind her disappearance, I still miss that nice hurdler lady.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    Two things:

    1) I’ve included Puljujarvi as usual, he comes off the 50-man the moment he signs in Europe or is traded

    Why are you including JP, he hasn’t signed?

    I honestly don’t know if this is a serious question or a fun little jab at earlier conversations?

  63. ArmchairGM says:

    ArmchairGM:
    This should be required reading:

    https://theathletic.com/1059795/2019/07/02/willis-oilers-gm-ken-holland-promises-long-term-rewards-for-an-approach-light-on-short-term-improvements/

    “Right now all that can be said with certainty is that his early work is a mixed bag and the roster today looks a lot like the one which delivered a 25th-place finish a season ago.”

    “Never say never, but it’s likely Josh Archibald is the last signing Oilers GM Ken Holland will make in free agency this summer.

    After giving a one-year, $1-million deal to the two-way depth forward on Tuesday, Holland finds himself little wiggle room with which to operate under the salary cap. He has no more than $1 million of space because he’s accounting for an extra $1 million for Mike Smith’s bonuses and wants to be $1.5 million under the cap heading into training camp.”

    “The rest of the team consists of players coming off poor seasons, those on bloated contracts whose best days are behind them, replacement-level talent or offseason depth signings. There aren’t many players rival GMs would be eager to acquire.”

    https://theathletic.com/1081529/2019/07/17/with-free-agency-all-but-over-oilers-ken-holland-has-tough-work-ahead-on-trade-front/

    Another hard-hitting piece from the athletic crew. Looks like Willis, Nugent-Bowman and Allan Mitchell all agree with my POV on Holland.

  64. Little Johnny Frostbite says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    That was clearly a poke at the great Pulju debate, OP. I’m pretty sure Woodguy reads the comments even when he’s not posting.

    Pulju – the 50 man list’s version of Schrödinger’s cat. 🙂

  65. Ribs says:

    Gloomy in here.

    I wonder If Holland would consider sharing what his plans in Detroit were for when he would have gained all of that cap space back (because he doesn’t appear willing to share his Oilers plans).

    Waiting around for cap space seems pretty lackadaisical. Is there at least some preparation work being done to make the most out of that money once it does finally free up?

  66. GMB3 says:

    Archibalds 12 evg would be a welcome addition to this team. He appears to be the Reider replacement by my eye.

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: 3. When JP signs a two-way deal he won’t be added to the 50 man.

    Well done sir.

  68. Jordan says:

    I’m really surprised that people haven’t figured out Chia’s MO when it comes to player signings yet.

    He makes promises to get people in the door, and then follows through on those promises.

    Russell Contracts – promised him an extension, including no movement, and he signed here
    Koskinen – promised him an extension and no move so he would sign here
    Lucic – see a patern yet?
    Benning – promised him NHL minutes and he signed here
    Caggiula – Promised him NHL minutes and he signed here

    I’m not surprised that Holland is having a harder time bringing players in – he’s not boxing himself in by making promises and either not keeping them, or trying to keep them.

    If Chia were still here, Stauff would be telling all of us how great Connolly will look playing with Drai and McD next season, and his 5Mx4year (with a NMC) deal will look like a steal by this time next year.

    Don’t be a Chia Kenny!

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    PennersPancakes: I dont think theres a lot to offer with Cave. He is someone who can cheaply sit in the press box and play the occasional game. If hes in the press box at least Benson/Marody isnt? Unlikely to lose you a game but even more unlikely to win you one. I personally can’t think of anything that stands out but the entire bottom six last year was awful meaning that might not be a fair assessment.

    Hes only played 56 games so a lot can change but his 8 points and 60 shots suggest there isnt much offense at the NHL level. If you go by Corsi/Fenwick he is ever so slightly positive at least!

    I agree – I don’t see him as any more than a tweener – 12-14F depth.

    If he is playing nightly then, in my opinion, things are going well.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    “In the days before Ken Holland, I outlined five important areas that needed to be addressed. At the time I assumed Keith Gretzky would take over a GM, and the order of the priorities was mine: Two scoring wingers, cap room, No. 3 center, top-4 RHD who can move the puck, and a backup goaltender.”

    Holland is oh-for-five.

    That should drive all the apologists wild.

    That presumes that Lowetide’s personal list is “right” and, frankly, I don’t agree with the list. I don’t think that 2 top 6 wingers was ever a reasonable requirement.

    If you are going to use the term “apologist” in a clearly derogatory way, should “the apologists” start using the word “haters”?

    I think we can be more mature than this but I could definitely be wrong.

  71. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I can’t believe Mike Freakin Smith got up to $3.75M from the oilers.

    As if he gets the $750K for making the playoffs

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Recall the paranoia last week regarding the Oilers signing an enforcer?

    We call all relax, Anthony Peluso is indeed in the organization but he’s been signed by the Condors – no NHL contract.

    Kind of a Polei replacement, not that Polei was just “an enforcer”

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: That presumes that Lowetide’s personal list is “right” and, frankly, I don’t agree with the list.I don’t think that 2 top 6 wingers was ever a reasonable requirement.

    To be fair, he said 2 scoring wingers, not 2 top-6 guys. And he’s counting Chiasson as one, and even willing to count in Benson if it comes to that. I don’t know how you could think that’s unreasonable.

    “Even Neal & Chiasson would have received a passing grade from me. Holland had limited resources, so I don’t think you can set his summer on fire for the moves made, but it’s short of the goal. Holland may be factoring in Tyler Benson as an option and that’s (imo) reasonable.”

    OriginalPouzar: If you are going to use the term “apologist” in a clearly derogatory way, should “the apologists” start using the word “haters”?

    They already do.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie:
    Here is why the Oiler’s locked Koskinen up when they did…

    26 goalies have signed contracts since July 1

    1 Starter – Bobrovsky
    2 good 1A – Valamov, Lehner
    3 good bets – Korpsalo, Mrazek, Binnington
    3 30+ stop gaps – Smith, Talbot, McElhennay
    17 Meh

    How many of those “meh” signed for 3 X $4.5M with trade protection?

    Further, how many of them are over 30 years old with zero track record of success in the NHL?

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Alpine:
    At the stage of acceptance where I’m now hoping Tippett can Jack Adams his team into the playoffs. At least in the sense that he’s done it before, therefore it’s a possibility.

    I do still have my doubts that the Deepest Bottom Six in the league will provide any sort of scoring depth, while I see the broader portions of fanbase currently hoping that any three of them at any time won’t be in over their heads in the top six.

    Optimism is fine, but Holland deserves a C grade at best here, and even then he spread out Sekera’s cap hit over four years so the argument that he’s playing it safe for the future doesn’t quite hold up.

    Yes, scoring depth in the bottom 6 is the key but there are also other potential benefits:

    – having 3rd and 4th lines than can take minutes – i.e. roll four lines (with exception for the Nuge/Drai double shifts, etc.) and not getting absolutely caved in those minutes

    – competition at the bottom of the lineup leading to better on ice play as well as better injury replacement

    – forcing graduates to earn the spot rather than being given/gifted the spot because Patrick Russell is the only competition

    – having speed and tenacity (with some skill) in the bottom 6 leading to a more aggressive forcheck that will, presumably, cause some turnovers and help keep the puck out of the defensive zone so much.

    – PK – many of these acquisitions are know to have PK ability and, frankly, GA (often via PK) was one of the major major issues with this team.

    Hopefully they can score more but, even if the increase in offence is marginal, hopefully they can saw off their minutes, create momentum, allow the top line to rest more, etc.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    RomulusApotheosis: 3. When JP signs a two-way deal he won’t be added to the 50 man.

    I would suggest there is zero chance he signs a 2-way deal but, even if he did, still counts against the 50.

    Unless you mean an AHL deal, similar to Peluso and are clearly joking (which I think you are anyways).

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    LeonnorMcDraivid:
    At this point, who cares? Leave it to the Oilers to feed us the same old year after year and season after season. All these promises of big change and as usual…nothing happens.

    1) I care

    2) Holland never promised big changes – in fact, he “promised” to get a goalie and create depth of skill in the bottom 6.

  78. Reja says:

    Primetime: That’s pretty disingenuous.

    I’m sure all Oiler fans hope Koskinen has a Vezina winning year.That doesn’t excuse the contract based on when it was negotiated and signed. A more realistic cap hit would allow the rest of the team to improve as well, and there was no reason the contract shouldn’t have been more reasonable.

    Kucherov just won the Hart, but the team was spectacular because they could load up with players based on his lowball contract negotiated by Stevie Y.Yes they have paid him now, but they took full advantage during the years his cap hit was low.It doesn’t matter if Koskinen wins the Vézina, it should have been with a Cup contending team cause they could load up due to his low cap hit.

    I was shocked with the price tag and years. I do like Kosh and if Chia had signed him for 2×3 or 3×2.5 people would lay up on him. If Kosh can Tandem up Play 45-50’ at a high level with Smith as 1B Bob’s our uncle. Goaltending is 50 percent between the ears plus I do trust Kurri’s evaluation of Kosh. I just don’t see how calling down Kosh and Smith over and over and over is beneficial before they play a minute of the season. If Neither can stop a beachball in the first 20 games then it’s fair game until then why not give the most voodoo and important position a fair chance.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    letmycamerongo:
    Hearing NYR are trying to shed cap and that Buchnevich and Namestnikov are both on the block. This is the answer to our prayers isn’t it?

    Buchnevich would, of course, be a nice add subject contract terms.

    Of course, the Rangers wouldn’t want an cap back (as the reason is to shed to make room for Trouba and a few others).

    I’ll take any combo of Buchnevich, Strome, Lemieux

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    PennersPancakes:
    texmex,

    I think RNH has even commented before that he prefers to play center. I think its pretty much a wash/slightly more value than one of Mantha/AA while Jesse is a lesser value.

    Both Detroit players are in contract years but still under RFA control though so while their cap hits work this year, youd unfortunately hope their performance means a large raise.

    AA and McDavids speed could be lethal. Drai and Mantha would be a combo of two big talented boys. I love Nuge but would definitely do that trade.

    Mantha was a beast at the worlds – really like his game – more talented than I thought.

    Of course, given the diversity of competition at the Worlds, always important to put too much stock in to performance.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: We might finish last, but Bettman will make sure we pick 4th.

    Just like 2015????

  82. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I honestly don’t know if this is a serious question or a fun little jab at earlier conversations?

    #2 is the clue

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    LeonnorMcDraivid:
    PennersPancakes,

    During the season when Chiarelli made his major moves including trading Hall, the Oilers actually made the playoffs. The Oilers decline started when Sekera got injured. Chiarelli did nothing to replace Sekera. Instead, he made a bunch of smaller moves hoping that the competition would allow other defenders to step up into the top 4…like Benning. Sound familiar? This is exactly what the Oilers are doing right now under Holland. It doesn’t work. The Oilers need legit players.

    The Oilers do need legit players and, they will acquire more prominent and higher end players, when it makes sense to do so – likely as early as next off-season.

    If the Oilers had acquired marginal players like Connolly or Nyqust (entering decline years) then there wouldn’t be the ability to acquire actual “legit players” in the near term. It sucks but its also the position the organization is currently in. More patiance.

    With “replacing Sekera” – going in to the 2016 off season, how was Chiarelli supposed to replace Sekera and add a top 4 D with the knowledge that Sekera was going to be returning to the NHL during the season and the LTIR relief cushion would disappear entirely? There wasn’t a practical way to do so.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    highgloveside:
    I wouldn’t say Holland failed at adding top 6 wingers.If he added almost any of the signed UFA’s, that contract would be considered an overpay in money or term.I would rather no move at all than an overpay, especially with the team having such cap issues already.

    Further, the fan-base is craving an established top 6 winger or two and, frankly, all of this year’s UFAs have warts in that area (aside from like Panarin) – Connolly is not established as a top 6 guy notwithstanding the advanced numbers, Nyquist is in his 30s and will likely regress through the term of his contract, etc.

    Holland could have got one of these guys by offereing more term and/or AAV but he’d be using his currency on a marginal player instead of saving his currency when, not only will he have more, but there may be better targets for the add.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: “Stop the presses” we have somebody else willing to give Kosh a honest chance before he’s run out of the City Of Champions. Between Kosh, Smith and Tippett’s system a lot of Debbie Downers will be back peddling.

    I made the following post back in November of last year. I also made a similar one later in his heater. As it turned out, I was a bit too anxious and the crow shouldn’t have been eater. Bottom line: I am cheering like hell for Koskinen (and I hope to eat crow for real) but I stand by everything I have said regarding why I think its unlikely he’ll cover the bet on his contract (given performance, age, etc.). I am cautiously optimistic that the duo of Smith and Koskinen can provide legit decent starter level tending (both can get hot, can push each other, etc). but that is more my optimistic nature in general than based off of, well, anything factual or historical:

    —–

    Pouzar – “Drake on the first line is an egregious choice, he’s proven to be ineffective and leads to McDavid potentially not even winning his ice”

    – Drake scores the winning goal and is generally effective on the first line – no big mistakes. No big fly byes

    ———————

    Pouzar – “Drake is the worst penalty killer among the semi-used forwards”

    – Drake scores a beauty shorty and the PK gives up zero

    ———————-

    Pouzar – “While I don’t mind the bet on the player, the $2.5M is a huge overpay for Koskinen – no reasonable comparable and no justification – GM should have waked away”

    – Koskinen is 2-0 – solid in the first game and spectacular in the second – a huge part of the win

    ——————–

    Pouzar – “I like Toby Rieder but the coach needs to find a way to keep him in the bottom six where he’s effective – he’s proven not to be a top 6 guy and he can help the team more from the bottom six

    – Rieder gets moved to the 2nd line, helps solidify the line and has, I believe, 7 assist in 6 games since the move

    ——————-

    Pouzar – “I can’t think of any reason why Garrison is on the team over Gravel”

    – Garrison plays generally solid in 12-13 minutes and scores a big PP insurance goal.

  86. London Jon says:

    ArmchairGM: “Never say never, but it’s likely Josh Archibald is the last signing Oilers GM Ken Holland will make in free agency this summer.

    After giving a one-year, $1-million deal to the two-way depth forward on Tuesday, Holland finds himself little wiggle room with which to operate under the salary cap. He has no more than $1 million of space because he’s accounting for an extra $1 million for Mike Smith’s bonuses and wants to be $1.5 million under the cap heading into training camp.”

    “The rest of the team consists of players coming off poor seasons, those on bloated contracts whose best days are behind them, replacement-level talent or offseason depth signings. There aren’t many players rival GMs would be eager to acquire.”

    https://theathletic.com/1081529/2019/07/17/with-free-agency-all-but-over-oilers-ken-holland-has-tough-work-ahead-on-trade-front/

    Another hard-hitting piece from the athletic crew. Looks like Willis, Nugent-Bowman and Allan Mitchell all agree with my POV on Holland.

    You’re really keen to be right and to have back up on your perspective!!

    On that basis alone I’d normally want that to happen for you, but your POV being right means we are even worse than last year so I can’t back that!

    Holland couldn’t have done much (anything) differently to what he’s done without trading tomorrow for today.

    I think he’s done exactly the right thing. Also, it takes time to understand what you have and what you need. Holland is taking his time figuring that out.

    Unlike Peter Chiarelli who decided he needed Dougie Hamilton and then when he was rebuffed (probably because he’s arrogant and unlikeable) he decided Griffin Reinhart was basically just as good.

    We will be a good team and I think you will be happy next season. This season doesn’t matter and Holland is being sensible not wasting resources on it

  87. ArmchairGM says:

    London Jon: Holland couldn’t have done much (anything) differently to what he’s done without trading tomorrow for today.

    This isn’t true and you ought to know it.

  88. ArmchairGM says:

    London Jon: it takes time to understand what you have and what you need. Holland is taking his time figuring that out.

    It’s July 17th. He’s been GM for 2 months, 10 days, and yet he’s out of cap space having signed 15 contracts, only 2 of which were draft picks signing ELC’s.

    He isn’t taking his time.

    And I never said he shouldn’t take his time. I disagree on the choices he’s making, the fact that other smart people agree with me is inconsequential really, but I thought it was interesting since I feel like I get shouted down a lot around here.

  89. ArmchairGM says:

    London Jon: We will be a good team

    There is no guarantee. You ought to know this, too.

  90. London Jon says:

    ArmchairGM: Sure, his cap hit and possibly his spot on the 50-man will be gone – but by then it’ll be December. How many players will be available then? Just waiver wire guys.

    This isn’t a great plan and you know it.

    Hollands only real option has been adding a variety of candidates for bottom 6 roles. We have 10 plus or so players for the bottom 6 and that should mean that we end up with a decent bottom 6. With no cost to the future.

    I really don’t understand why you have a problem with any of these signings. The Euro’s don’t work they go back to Europe. Others get demoted to the AHL. The kids are ready or they aren’t ready. The key is all of these are options with no downside risk.

    Kids not ready? Stay down and develop, there are decent players above them

    Euros not good enough? Go home. No cap issue, no big deal, other options

    Sort of ‘vets’ not good enough? Bury in the AHL

    betting on 12 guys to fill 6 spots with no downside is good management. In previous years it’s been betting on 6 to fill 6 and surprise surprise 2 or 3 didn’t make it and there was no plan B.

    You seem to be hell bent on slamming Holland in his 2 months so far. I don’t think it’s warranted (yet) and I very strongly believe the later years of Connor and Leon’s deals are the window. I think Holland sees this as the plan as well and he’s sticking to it

  91. ArmchairGM says:

    London Jon: but your POV being right means we are even worse than last year

    I don’t want it to be true either, I just call it like I see it.

  92. London Jon says:

    ArmchairGM: There is no guarantee. You ought to know this, too.

    I think I can get my head around that not being guaranteed, but thank you anyway.

    You’re right I should know that, too 😀😀😀

  93. Side says:

    London Jon:

    Unlike Peter Chiarelli who decided he needed Dougie Hamilton and then when he was rebuffed (probably because he’s arrogant and unlikeable) he decided Griffin Reinhart was basically just as good.

    I don’t know if I blame Chiarelli for the Hamilton situation. If I recall correctly, Chiarelli offered Boston more for Dougie than Calgary but Boston went with Calgary’s offer. Even if Chiarelli is ‘arrogant’ and ‘unlikeable’, that’s more of a negative towards Boston’s GM for not taking the offer that would have been better for his team.

  94. London Jon says:

    ArmchairGM: It’s July 17th. He’s been GM for 2 months, 10 days, and yet he’s out of cap space having signed 15 contracts, only 2 of which were draft picks signing ELC’s.

    He isn’t taking his time.

    And I never said he shouldn’t take his time. I disagree on the choices he’s making, the fact that other smart people agree with me is inconsequential really, but I thought it was interesting since I feel like I get shouted down a lot around here.

    He has no cap space because PC wasted it all.

    Holland has used up almost no cap space as the only space he has spent has been on the $$$ to Chiasson, Smith and Khaira above 1m. All of the other signings can be buried in the AHL or returned to Europe with no cap impact.

    Gambardella/Currie in the NHL, basically same cap hit
    Nygard/Haas in the NHL, basically same cap hit
    Granlund/Archibald in the NHL, basically same cap hit

    Play with cap friendly and take those players in and out.

    THESE SIGNINGS DO NOT TAKE UP ANY OF THE CAP IF THEY DONT WORK OUT!!!!

  95. JimmyV1965 says:

    Alpine:
    At the stage of acceptance where I’m now hoping Tippett can Jack Adams his team into the playoffs. At least in the sense that he’s done it before, therefore it’s a possibility.

    I do still have my doubts that the Deepest Bottom Six in the league will provide any sort of scoring depth, while I see the broader portions of fanbase currently hoping that any three of them at any time won’t be in over their heads in the top six.

    Optimism is fine, but Holland deserves a C grade at best here, and even then he spread out Sekera’s cap hit over four years so the argument that he’s playing it safe for the future doesn’t quite hold up.

    I’m not thrilled with Holland right now, but it seems premature to be grading his performance already.

  96. London Jon says:

    Side: I don’t know if I blame Chiarelli for the Hamilton situation.If I recall correctly, Chiarelli offered Boston more for Dougie than Calgary but Boston went with Calgary’s offer.Even if Chiarelli is ‘arrogant’ and ‘unlikeable’, that’s more of a negative towards Boston’s GM for not taking the offer that would have been better for his team.

    It IS a negative against the Boston GM, I agree, but the big mistake and disaster and burning of value in the whole situation was us offering the two picks for Reinhart as Plan B.

    So I think you have to blame Chiarelli. A lot…

  97. McSorley33 says:

    russ99,

    IMO, the purposes of signing all the bottom six projected players to one-year deals are:

    1. Fix one of the biggest issues of last season: lack of NHL-quality wingers

    **********************************************************************************************
    Scans list of ** ‘NHL-quality’** forwards signed by Ken Holland:

    Gaetan Haas
    Joakim Nygard
    Thomas Jurco
    Marcus Granlund
    Checks hockeydb – Josh Archibald

    Just curious Russ if you are giving Kenny a check mark for the first item on your list?

  98. Revolved says:

    Oh boy, this place has been depressing lately. This article did not help. It sounds like Lucic must be walking around Edmonton kicking everyone’s dogs.

    I agree that Tippett was the biggest bet made this summer. He has the ability to address several of the team’s biggest problems from the last two years:

    1) Inconsistent line mates
    2) A lack of rest for the big players
    3) poor defensive structure

    The other thing these issues stem from has been a very poor bottom six, which Holland has clearly been working on. I will post some numbers on all these things in the coming days. My hope is that by addressing this and the coaching, that we don’t end up in another downward spiral by Christmas.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: “Never say never, but it’s likely Josh Archibald is the last signing Oilers GM Ken Holland will make in free agency this summer.

    After giving a one-year, $1-million deal to the two-way depth forward on Tuesday, Holland finds himself little wiggle room with which to operate under the salary cap. He has no more than $1 million of space because he’s accounting for an extra $1 million for Mike Smith’s bonuses and wants to be $1.5 million under the cap heading into training camp.”

    “The rest of the team consists of players coming off poor seasons, those on bloated contracts whose best days are behind them, replacement-level talent or offseason depth signings. There aren’t many players rival GMs would be eager to acquire.”

    https://theathletic.com/1081529/2019/07/17/with-free-agency-all-but-over-oilers-ken-holland-has-tough-work-ahead-on-trade-front/

    Another hard-hitting piece from the athletic crew. Looks like Willis, Nugent-Bowman and Allan Mitchell all agree with my POV on Holland.

    Of course, the Archibald signing has zero impact on that cap space calculation – the calculation would have been the same before – Archibald is now accounted for and someone like Joe G. or Cave or Brodizak or whoever that was previously accounted for is no longer. Well, I guess there would likely be a small increase depending on the cap hit of the player sent down, a couple hundred grand. Of course, if its Brodziak, which could be the case, well, that actually leads to a $75K decrease to the cap.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    LittleJohnnyFrostbite:
    OriginalPouzar,

    That was clearly a poke at the great Pulju debate, OP.I’m pretty sure Woodguy reads the comments even when he’s not posting.

    Pulju – the 50 man list’s version of Schrödinger’s cat.

    Thought that would be likely but I haven’t seen him around over the last few weeks (at least not much) so he could have been very busy or on vacation (and not reading) or whatever and missed it. Not a worry either way, I was just genuinely not sure (not that it matters).

  101. digger50 says:

    I am having trouble digesting all this acceptance of poor roster construction this far.

    This was not the case in the spring. This blog was full of ideas with unlimited potential for next season.

    Why is it that now the prevalence is “well, he had nothing to work with” What was he supposed to do” “have more patience” “maybe next year”

    Apathetic

    Holland still has time. But so far other GM’s have significantly outperformed him creatively and tactically. Oilers did not need to pay 5M to an experienced GM to get this roster construction. He’s here 5 more years. Guys if this doesn’t get better, there is no cup coming here, and no cup in the McDavid years. This is a real and significant reality.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I can’t believe Mike Freakin Smith got up to $3.75M from the oilers.

    As if he gets the $750K for making the playoffs

    If Smith gets $3.75M this year, I’m pretty sure Holland (and Smith) will deserve all sorts of praise so that statement kind of reads odd: negativity towards the GM for the contract but acknowledging that the full potential of the contract is unlikely to be paid but not accounting for that in the negativity and not acknowledged that, if the full contract is paid, all Oiler fans will be extremely happy.

  103. London Jon says:

    digger50:
    I am having trouble digesting all this acceptance of poor roster construction this far.

    This was not the case in the spring. This blog was full of ideas with unlimited potential for next season.

    Why is it that now the prevalence is “well, he had nothing to work with” What was he supposed to do” “have more patience” “maybe next year”

    Apathetic

    Holland still has time. But so far other GM’s have significantly outperformed him creatively and tactically. Oilers did not need to pay 5M to an experienced GM to get this roster construction. He’s here 5 more years. Guys if this doesn’t get better, there is no cup coming here, and no cup in the McDavid years. This is a real and significant reality.

    We were always going to be in this position this year.

    What creative and tactical things should Holland have done so far that you don’t think he’s tried to do?

  104. blainer says:

    London Jon: Hollands only real option has been adding a variety of candidates for bottom 6 roles. We have 10 plus or so players for the bottom 6 and that should mean that we end up with a decent bottom 6. With no cost to the future.

    I really don’t understand why you have a problem with any of these signings. The Euro’s don’t work they go back to Europe. Others get demoted to the AHL. The kids are ready or they aren’t ready. The key is all of these are options with no downside risk.

    Kids not ready? Stay down and develop, there are decent players above them

    Euros not good enough? Go home. No cap issue, no big deal, other options

    Sort of ‘vets’ not good enough? Bury in the AHL

    betting on 12 guys to fill 6 spots with no downside is good management. In previous years it’s been betting on 6 to fill 6 and surprise surprise 2 or 3 didn’t make it and there was no plan B.

    You seem to be hell bent on slamming Holland in his 2 months so far. I don’t think it’s warranted (yet) and I very strongly believe the later years of Connor and Leon’s deals are the window. I think Holland sees this as the plan as well and he’s sticking to it

    Holland didn’t want to over pay for UFA’s.. I would have gone 4 mil x 2 for Dzingal.. That was doable without hurting long term.

    The rest of the UFA’s I’m OK with his passing on. Signing a ton of 4th liners who Might be able to PK I am ok with. Anyone can do that though.

    He has not improved this team much especially on the Goaltending.. the most important position.

    What he has also NOT done is get creative and make moves like those teams that made great trades for low returns. Extremely disappointing and really makes me wonder if he is just not up with the times much like his boss BN.

    He has done nothing to inspire confidence. Setting such a low bar of not giving out bad contracts and the signing of a ton of 4th liners is what it has come to with this team.. Very sad.

    He also has to get it right with JP. So far so good in that he hasn’t given him away. Johnathon Drouin brought back a good return and his value was almost if not lower than JP’s. If he gets this right I will be very happy and if he makes him come back and play til he finds a trade much in the way Drouin did than that’s a bonus. Droiun had a decent year after the holdout. We cannot give this player away for a draft pick.

    I have to believe he will get something done before the start of the season. At this point I give Holland close to a failing grade for his offseason work to this point.

    I will reserve my total judgement on this GM until opening night but as of now I am not impressed.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Iwas shocked withthe price tag and years. I do like Kosh and if Chia had signed him for 2×3 or 3×2.5 people would lay up on him.

    Here is the thing that it doesn’t seem you realize or acknowledge – people don’t hate Koskinen (for the most part). People hate the contract (as do you) and would “lay off” if a more reasonable contract was signed, as you posit. The thing is, its not Koskinen that they would be laying off, its Chiarelli. All the “hate”, “vitriol”, etc. is directed towards Chiarelli for the signing, not Koskinen.

    Yes, people will criticize Koskinen’ play but its not more or less than any other player that has struggled, as Koskinen has. People have worry that he won’t be able to provide starter or 1A/1B level tending that a winning team needs because, well, he hasn’t done it. That’s not different than people having worry about Chiasson or Gagner or Puljujarvi or Jurco being able to succeed in the top 6.

  106. bsmart says:

    Side Note: Broberg and Lavoie were the #7 and #8 ranked players in Bob Mckenzie pre season rankings. Broberg was 7, 8, 10, then 16. He was always within range of the #8 pick all season.

    If I was told we would get the #7 & #8 Mckenzie ranked players back in Sept 2018 I would have been thrilled!

    Interesting spin, no?

  107. London Jon says:

    blainer: Holland didn’t want to over pay for UFA’s.. I would have gone 4 mil x 2 for Dzingal.. That was doable without hurting long term.

    The rest of the UFA’s I’m OK with his passing on. Signing a ton of 4th liners who Might be able to PK I am ok with. Anyone can do that though.

    He has not improved this team much especially on the Goaltending.. the most important position.

    What he has also NOT done is get creative and make moves on those teams that made great trades for low returns. Extremely disappointing and really makes me wonder if he is just not up with the times much like his boss BN.

    He has done nothing to inspire confidence. Setting such a low bar of not giving out bad contracts and the signing of a ton of 4th liners is what it has come to with this team.. Very sad.

    He also has to get it right with JP. So far so good in that he hasn’t given him away. Johnathon Drouin brought back a good return and his value was almost if not lower than JP’s. If he gets this right I will be very happy and if he makes him come back and play til he finds a trade much in the way Drouin did than that’s a bonus. Droiun had a decent year after the holdout. We cannot give this player away for a draft pick.

    I have to believe he will get something done before the start of the season. At this point I give Holland close to a failing grade for his offseason work to this point.

    I will reserve my total judgement on this GM until opening night but as of now I am not impressed.

    It’s impossible to know what he offered for Dzingel and/or Connolly. So hard to make a judgement on those targets.

    It’s also impossible to know what creative or non creative options have been on the table. Other GMs offered PC trades massively in their favour and PC took them.

    I am going to assume Holland has sensibly turned down a lot of options that he felt bled value or cap and were detrimental to our roster and that’s why he’s done little. Perhaps this shows the league that we are no longer the place to come for one sided trades.

    Maybe Holland is also missing very creative and positive moves. I don’t know what those might be.

    What would you have done differently if you’d been GM?

  108. digger50 says:

    London Jon: We were always going to be in this position this year.

    What creative and tactical things should Holland have done so far that you don’t think he’s tried to do?

    I should have also included “please don’t reply with what would you do” scenarios or “what did you want him to do?”

    He’s a 5M GM. I expect him to build a dam team. I expect him to get one good piece at a time. I expect better than before. I expect him to support a star player, not destroy him trying to carry an AHL team. I expect the end goal to be winning hockey games.

    “We were always going to be in this position” is an apathetic place to be. Nonsense. There was plenty of opportunity – still is. I expect better than delivered thus far.

    Edit: jon, if it sounds as if I am angry at you, unintentional. I’m not.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: It’s July 17th. He’s been GM for 2 months, 10 days, and yet he’s out of cap space having signed 15 contracts, only 2 of which were draft picks signing ELC’s.

    Another example of ignoring the reality of the cap implication of the 15 signings – I know that you understand so I believe its intentionally ignoring the reality in order to propogate a narrative.

    Tell, me, how does signing Jurco negatively effect the cap space?

    On cap friendly, Jurco is currently listed on the 23 man roster and taking up $750K of cap space.

    What would be the case if he hadn’t signed Jurco? His $750K would be gone and it would be replaced by person listed as a “non-roster forward” – likely Cooper Marody who has a cap hit of $925K

    So, the current cap space would likely decrease by $200K if Jurco wasn’t signed.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side: I don’t know if I blame Chiarelli for the Hamilton situation.If I recall correctly, Chiarelli offered Boston more for Dougie than Calgary but Boston went with Calgary’s offer.Even if Chiarelli is ‘arrogant’ and ‘unlikeable’, that’s more of a negative towards Boston’s GM for not taking the offer that would have been better for his team.

    The issue was the panic when he didn’t get the player to get the next guy, one of Paul’s sons……..

  111. London Jon says:

    Spooner has gone to Switzerland – which incidentally is where I am this week! Beautiful Zurich that is also TOTALLY SHUT at 10.45pm when you want to go for a nightcap (as I did an hour ago!!).

    I think we forget about how awful Strome for Spooner was as a trade because we now have Gagner, who is MARGINALLY better than Spooner.

    Eberle for Spooner. My god Peter Chiarelli was an idiot.

  112. blainer says:

    Revolved:
    Oh boy, this place has been depressing lately. This article did not help. It sounds like Lucic must be walking around Edmonton kicking everyone’s dogs.

    I agree that Tippett was the biggest bet made this summer. He has the ability to address several of the team’s biggest problems from the last two years:

    1) Inconsistent line mates
    2) A lack of rest for the big players
    3) poor defensive structure

    The other thing these issues stem from has been a very poor bottom six, which Holland has clearly been working on. I will post some numbers on all these things in the coming days. My hope is that by addressing this and the coaching, that we don’t end up in another downward spiral by Christmas.

    IMO the best coach in the history of hockey will not get this lineup to the playoffs short of BOTH goaltenders performing a miracle !! If he does it even with great Goaltending he deserves every award that is out there for coaching.

    I have to say though I won’t be blaming Tippett for the teams problems if this is his lineup opening night.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    LondonJon: He has no cap space because PC wasted it all.

    Holland has used up almost no cap space as the only space he has spent has been on the $$$ to Chiasson, Smith and Khaira above 1m. All of the other signings can be buried in the AHL or returned to Europe with no cap impact.

    Gambardella/Currie in the NHL, basically same cap hit
    Nygard/Haas in the NHL, basically same cap hit
    Granlund/Archibald in the NHL, basically same cap hit

    Play with cap friendly and take those players in and out.

    THESE SIGNINGS DO NOT TAKE UP ANY OF THE CAP IF THEY DONT WORK OUT!!!!

    I’m confident he understands this but is simply choosing to ignore it because it doesn’t fit the narrative.

  114. blainer says:

    digger50:
    I am having trouble digesting all this acceptance of poor roster construction this far.

    This was not the case in the spring. This blog was full of ideas with unlimited potential for next season.

    Why is it that now the prevalence is “well, he had nothing to work with” What was he supposed to do” “have more patience” “maybe next year”

    Apathetic

    Holland still has time. But so far other GM’s have significantly outperformed him creatively and tactically. Oilers did not need to pay 5M to an experienced GM to get this roster construction. He’s here 5 more years. Guys if this doesn’t get better, there is no cup coming here, and no cup in the McDavid years. This is a real and significant reality.

    Yup.. I think that’s what a good few of us are saying but you spelled it out even better..

  115. London Jon says:

    digger50: I should have also included “please don’t reply with what would you do” scenarios or “what did you want him to do?”

    He’s a 5M GM. I expect him to build a dam team. I expect him to get one good piece at a time. I expect better than before. I expect him to support a star player, not destroy him trying to carry an AHL team. I expect the end goal to be winning hockey games.

    “We were always going to be in this position” is an apathetic place to be. Nonsense. There was plenty of opportunity – still is. I expect better than delivered thus far.

    Edit: jon, if it sounds as if I am angry at you, unintentional. I’m not.

    I don’t think you can be Uber negative about Holland and say ‘he’s failed, he has so much opportunity, he should have done something different’ if you have no view on what that might be.

    Very smart, creative people like LT, Willis don’t have any advances on what Holland has done either. Because he has had basically no options.

    Ditch the Lucic cap hit? Super, great, but he’s been trying to do that and come up with nothing that makes sense to do.

    Trade Russell for a 4m, top-6, shooting winger, promote Jones + Bouchard. Also super, great, but I’m sure he’s been trying to do this and the deals aren’t there.

    Trade Gagner back for Strome? The empty shell of Griffin Reinhart back for Barzal?

    What else could he do??!! I don’t know! You don’t know!! No one knows!!

    Get in a time machine and kill Peter Chiarelli before he was offered the GM job is the only correct answer to this question

  116. London Jon says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m confident he understands this but is simply choosing to ignore it because it doesn’t fit the narrative.

    If you have ten almonds and I take away those ten almonds and give you back ten almonds…do you have more or less almonds than you started with…

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger:
    I am having trouble digesting all this acceptance of poor roster construction this far.

    This was not the case in the spring. This blog was full of ideas with unlimited potential for next season.

    Why is it that now the prevalence is “well, he had nothing to work with” What was he supposed to do” “have more patience” “maybe next year”

    Apathetic

    Holland still has time. But so far other GM’s have significantly outperformed him creatively and tactically. Oilers did not need to pay 5M to an experienced GM to get this roster construction. He’s here 5 more years. Guys if this doesn’t get better, there is no cup coming here, and no cup in the McDavid years. This is a real and significant reality.

    Yes, this blog was full of ideas on how to proceed – as it turns out most were unreasonable – for example many were predicated on trading Lucic for a cost but not nearly at the place the market went.

    This blog was also full of positions that the Oilers were going to have a quiet free agent period and full of opinions that a quiet free agent period was the best route to go.

    Yup, some other GMs were creative – they were also not in the same position as the Oilers – the Leafs were in a position to trade a 1st round pick to divest of Marleau. The Oilers aren’t in a position to trade a first round pick to divest of Lucic and, of course, it would have cost much much more than that.

    Yes, the Oilers could have acquired Burakovsky and signed him for $3.25M – that’s one I would have been OK with – then, again, Josh Archibald had near identical box cars playing with lesser linemates and adds other aspects to the lineup for under a third of the price.

    Yes, Holland is here for 5 years and has a plan to turn this team in to a cup contender and has the knowledge that, while it can’t be done this off-season on its own, the process and timeline can sure as heck have been hindered and lengthened.

    I’m glad $4M wasn’t spent on Connolly and that $4M will be available next off-season for a more established top 6 player.

    This off-season’s free agent group was loaded with marginal players (other than a few high end like Panarin) – warts everywhere – Connolly, a marginal top 6 at best, Nyquist, a legit top 6 but reaching decline years, etc.

    The time wasn’t now to go all in and use all the ammo on these types of players.

    I don’t have apathy, not at all, but i see what I believe is a reasonable path forward and it will take a bit of time – it will take more time if assets are bled and cap is committed to marginal players (with over-pays).

  118. blainer says:

    London Jon: It’s impossible to know what he offered for Dzingel and/or Connolly. So hard to make a judgement on those targets.

    It’s also impossible to know what creative or non creative options have been on the table. Other GMs offered PC trades massively in their favour and PC took them.

    I am going to assume Holland has sensibly turned down a lot of options that he felt bled value or cap and were detrimental to our roster and that’s why he’s done little. Perhaps this shows the league that we are no longer the place to come for one sided trades.

    Maybe Holland is also missing very creative and positive moves. I don’t know what those might be.

    What would you have done differently if you’d been GM?

    I would suggest you go over and read Nugent Bowman’s article over at the Athletic. We could have been on a few of those trades if we wanted to and he doen’t even have them all listed.

    Me .. I would have the 2020 first.. lottery protected.. and JP in play. I know it’s a big draft year next year which makes it even that much more valuable. Calgary traded their picks in the few previous drafts and they did it right.

    The worst part about a new GM and not just Holland but you can fuck things up by staying too patient also. We can’t piss another year away signing 4th liners like we did last year and waste yet another year with CMD. Waiting til next year.. jeebus .. is it ever going to end with this way of thinking around here.

    Look at Dubas in TO.. He has done some great work over the summer.

    I think half of the people posting here would have done a better job at this point than Holland. JMO.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer: Holland didn’t want to over pay for UFA’s.. I would have gone 4 mil x 2 for Dzingal.. That was doable without hurting long term.

    I have to believe he will get something done before the start of the season. At this point I give Holland close to a failing grade for his offseason work to this point.

    That Dzingal suggestion sounds realistic and fine in isolation but what would have been the ramification of it? In my opinion, while clearly Dzingel would help the current roster, he is a marginal player – he was poor in the 2nd half, benched, ineffective in the playoffs, etc. That’s not an egregious contract but, at the same time, it take $4M away from the cap space next year that could/should be spent a larger impact player.

    This team will not be rolling in cap space next season. Yes, they will have apx $25M but that is with 10 roster players. That’s $25M for 13 players, one being Darnell Nurse – so $18M for 12 roster players.

    Yes, I assume Russell will be disposed of and, hey, if one of the skilled graduated d-men pop earlier than anticipated, maybe we can move a more expensive veteran for more space and slip in Sammy or Bouchard.

    Point being, even $4M for Dzingel on a 2 year term effects the ability to grab a more impact player next off-season and, given where we are and what we are trying to accomplish (win the Stanley Cup), I’m cool with not committing to this year’s very marginal crop of UFA forwards.

    I will also reserve judgement on Holland but likely further than you. I expect/hope for a 3C of substance but, more than anything, I reserve judgement until the end of next off-season because I understand, or I think I understand, process and a main part of this off-season was to not commit now to reduce our ability to take advantage of cap strapped teams in the next few years and acquire more than marginal middle six players to play in the top 6.

  120. Harpers Hair says:

    London Jon: It’s impossible to know what he offered for Dzingel and/or Connolly. So hard to make a judgement on those targets.

    It’s also impossible to know what creative or non creative options have been on the table. Other GMs offered PC trades massively in their favour and PC took them.

    I am going to assume Holland has sensibly turned down a lot of options that he felt bled value or cap and were detrimental to our roster and that’s why he’s done little. Perhaps this shows the league that we are no longer the place to come for one sided trades.

    Maybe Holland is also missing very creative and positive moves. I don’t know what those might be.

    What would you have done differently if you’d been GM?

    Buy out Gagner and Manning and don’t sign Granlund and Chiasson.
    Boom…$6 million for a top six winger.

  121. DBO says:

    Wow. lots of frustration and black clouds out right now. Let me attempt to inject some guarded optimism. No I am not saying it’s great, lots of work to be done. But we have improved.

    1. For the first time in 10 years we can actually ice a full team of actual NHL players. We may lack a natural 3C, but we have 12 forwards, and 6 defensemen who are NHL calibre.

    2. For the first time in 10 years we will have young players not be gifted a roster spot, and in fact we will probably be pinning for them after the first losing stretch. And no one under the age of 20 should see NHL ice this year. Seriously this alone should make most happy.

    3. Don’t undervalue the growth, maturity and internal improvement from a lot of our young corps. They will be better due to experience and improved understanding.

    4. Pretty much everyone Holland brought in has a chance to be our new Pisani. So worst case LT will be happier. (Granlund, Archibald, heck even Chiasson really. Why not. 15 goals and two way play)

    5. We legit have 4 bottom 6 wingers who can score between 10 and 15 (and that does include Lucic). Could not tell you the last time that happened. (Granlund, Archibald, Gagner, Chiasson).

    6. The amount of older two way talent from the AHL and Europe allows the kids to stay down in the minors till they earn it. And also is a cheap and solid bet to see one of them (AHL vet or European additions) step up and be another Pisani.. What is better them 1 Pisani? 2 Pisani’s!!!!!!!

    7. they have way more speed. And now have the ability to have a physical player on every line who can actually skate enough to not be lost out there.

    8. Lucic can’t be worse. Right? Right….!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!???????????

  122. jp says:

    Primetime: That’s pretty disingenuous.

    I’m sure all Oiler fans hope Koskinen has a Vezina winning year.That doesn’t excuse the contract based on when it was negotiated and signed. A more realistic cap hit would allow the rest of the team to improve as well, and there was no reason the contract shouldn’t have been more reasonable.

    Kucherov just won the Hart, but the team was spectacular because they could load up with players based on his lowball contract negotiated by Stevie Y.Yes they have paid him now, but they took full advantage during the years his cap hit was low.It doesn’t matter if Koskinen wins the Vézina, it should have been with a Cup contending team cause they could load up due to his low cap hit.

    This is a little over the top too though.

    Among starters (>40 games) Koskinen was 19th in SV%.

    Neither of the other goalies he shared the net with managed .900.

    Talbot last year had essentially the same number as Koskinen this year (and it’s reasonable to believe there’s some influence of team in there).

    The #19 cap hit this year and last is Craig Anderson at $4.75M. So Koskinen is #20.

    If what we’ve seen is what Koskinen is, he’s paid fairly. Hell, Talbot turned his .892 season into $2.75M, though only for 1 year).

    Sure, there’s uncertainty there, and maybe a more favorable (and shorter) deal might have been possible. I’m not sure how much more team friendly was fair to expect though. Maybe 2X$3.5M? At the end of the year the deal looks in the range of market value. And if Koskinen can be league average it begins to look like good value.

    The difference between what maybe could have been vs what the deal actually was isn’t something that would have turned the Oilers into the Lightning clearly. JMO.

  123. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Buy out Gagner and Manningand don’t sign Granlund and Chiasson.
    Boom…$6 million for a top six winger.

    And who is this top 6 winger that wants to come here.
    Until someone can demonstrate that this team is done crawling through the 500 yards of shitsmelling foulness I can’t even imagine
    Players of high value will avoid us.
    If we are a competitive playoff team for a few years that may change
    Until then, keep building through the draft

  124. Gerta Rauss says:

    Harpers Hair: Buy out Gagner and Manningand don’t sign Granlund and Chiasson.
    Boom…$6 million for a top six winger.

    But Granlund is our only hope

    No wait, that’s Shane Starrett

    carry on

  125. ArmchairGM says:

    London Jon: He has no cap space because PC wasted it all.

    Holland has used up almost no cap space as the only space he has spent has been on the $$$ to Chiasson, Smith and Khaira above 1m. All of the other signings can be buried in the AHL or returned to Europe with no cap impact.

    Gambardella/Currie in the NHL, basically same cap hit
    Nygard/Haas in the NHL, basically same cap hit
    Granlund/Archibald in the NHL, basically same cap hit

    Play with cap friendly and take those players in and out.

    THESE SIGNINGS DO NOT TAKE UP ANY OF THE CAP IF THEY DONT WORK OUT!!!!

    Sure, sure. I just hope Connor, Leon and Ryan can play 60 minutes a game.

  126. blainer says:

    OriginalPouzar: That Dzingal suggestion sounds realistic and fine in isolation but what would have been the ramification of it?In my opinion, while clearly Dzingel would help the current roster, he is a marginal player – he was poor in the 2nd half, benched, ineffective in the playoffs, etc. That’s not an egregious contract but, at the same time, it take $4M away from the cap space next year that could/should be spent a larger impact player.

    This team will not be rolling in cap space next season.Yes, they will have apx $25M but that is with 10 roster players.That’s $25M for 13 players, one being Darnell Nurse – so $18M for 12 roster players.

    Yes, I assume Russell will be disposed of and, hey, if one of the skilled graduated d-men pop earlier than anticipated, maybe we can move a more expensive veteran for more space and slip in Sammy or Bouchard.

    Point being, even $4M for Dzingel on a 2 year term effects the ability to grab a more impact player next off-season and, given where we are and what we are trying to accomplish (win the Stanley Cup), I’m cool with not committing to this year’s very marginal crop of UFA forwards.

    I will also reserve judgement on Holland but likely further than you.I expect/hope for a 3C of substance but, more than anything, I reserve judgement until the end of next off-season because I understand, or I think I understand, process and a main part of this off-season was to not commit now to reduce our ability to take advantage of cap strapped teams in the next few years and acquire more than marginal middle six players to play in the top 6.

    Man OP you are one patient man.. probably serves you well with your career choice.. Me.. Not so much. Carolina signed Dzingal to a decent contract for two years knowing his numbers so they certainly have confidence in him so I don’t really buy into those splits much.

    Not trying to be a jerk here but I do wonder what your reason will be next year when you say once again we need to stay patient when we have little cap space available and Holland does nothing but sign 4the liners again like we have the last two years and we end up finishing 31st lose the lottery.. and draft 4th overall.

    This is just the way I feel with BN ownership and now Holland. This team CMD and the fan base deserve better. Now I’m not saying go out and do stupid Chia moves but I am saying make a trade but get it right.

    You may also be correct in being patient but we’ve all seen this movie before.

    If it’s me.. I’m making a trade . There is still time for Holland to get it right and that’s what I’m hoping for and I believe you are too..

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger: I should have also included “please don’t reply with what would you do” scenarios or “what did you want him to do?”

    He’s a 5M GM. I expect him to build a dam team. I expect him to get one good piece at a time. I expect better than before. I expect him to support a star player, not destroy him trying to carry an AHL team. I expect the end goal to be winning hockey games.

    “We were always going to be in this position” is an apathetic place to be. Nonsense. There was plenty of opportunity – still is. I expect better than delivered thus far.

    Edit: jon, if it sounds as if I am angry at you, unintentional. I’m not.

    Yes, he is planning on building a team and he is planning on building that team to win hockey games.

    Of course, he realizes that taking a bottom 10 team, with essentially no cap space, very few tradeable assets (except for incumbent core players in positions without depth and picks/prospects that are hugely important in a cap world), boat anchor contracts with term, potentially tradeable assets with prohibitive trade protection and turning that team in to a winning team is likely to take more than one off-season.

    It seems his definition of “winning team” is one that competes yearly for the Stanley Cup – I anticipate McDavid would like the same.

    He has done what he could to shore up some areas of deficiency at low cost and lost commitment while keeping his future assets available (to play on the team and/or use as trade currency when it makes sense) and not committing valuable cap space to marginal players.

    Even signing a Connolly this off-season or Dzingel at $4M X 2 would inhibit adding a more substantial player when the time makes sense – when the team has more asset and cap currency and other teams are in need of divesting due to cap.

    Lets not forget, before Detroit became the model franchise for almost 30 years, they were one of the worst team’s in league history for two decades

  128. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: If Smith gets $3.75M this year, I’m pretty sure Holland (and Smith) will deserve all sorts of praise so that statement kind of reads odd:negativity towards the GM for the contract but acknowledging that the full potential of the contract is unlikely to be paid but not accounting for that in the negativity and not acknowledged that, if the full contract is paid, all Oiler fans will be extremely happy.

    Yes we will be. But even Holland isn’t making that bet: he has publicly stated that he’s allowing $1M for Smith’s bonuses.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    LondonJon: If you have ten almonds and I take away those ten almonds and give you back ten almonds…do you have more or less almonds than you started with…

    Almonds are too calorie dense for my goals…..

  130. ArmchairGM says:

    digger50:
    I am having trouble digesting all this acceptance of poor roster construction this far.

    This was not the case in the spring. This blog was full of ideas with unlimited potential for next season.

    Why is it that now the prevalence is “well, he had nothing to work with” What was he supposed to do” “have more patience” “maybe next year”

    Apathetic

    Holland still has time. But so far other GM’s have significantly outperformed him creatively and tactically. Oilers did not need to pay 5M to an experienced GM to get this roster construction. He’s here 5 more years. Guys if this doesn’t get better, there is no cup coming here, and no cup in the McDavid years. This is a real and significant reality.

    Well said.

  131. ArmchairGM says:

    London Jon: We were always going to be in this position this year.

    That’s the spirit! Throw up your hands and blame the last guy!

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Buy out Gagner and Manningand don’t sign Granlund and Chiasson.
    Boom…$6 million for a top six winger.

    No, room for a $3M winger given three more players are needed on the roster now.

  133. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Another example of ignoring the reality of the cap implication of the 15 signings – I know that you understand so I believe its intentionally ignoring the reality in order to propogate a narrative.

    Tell, me, how does signing Jurco negatively effect the cap space?

    On cap friendly, Jurco is currently listed on the 23 man roster and taking up $750K of cap space.

    What would be the case if he hadn’t signed Jurco?His $750K would be gone and it would be replaced by person listed as a “non-roster forward” – likely Cooper Marody who has a cap hit of $925K

    So, the current cap space would likely decrease by $200K if Jurco wasn’t signed.

    Oh, I understand it all right. Holland has spent all the cap on players who make around $1M, the fact that they can be replaced with other players already on the 50-man roster making similar money is irrelevant. Either way there’s no cap space to bring in anything except another $1M player.

    And no material improvement to show for it.

  134. Bulging Twine says:

    Holland is a planner. He plan’s years in advance. His hallmark is organizational stability. If your hallmark is organizational stability you have to plan ahead.

    I believe it was in the book, Behind the Moves, that other GM’s stated they were envious of Hollands structure and stability. He had a plan for his depth chart multiple years ahead of time, projecting who was going to slot in where and when. *within reason of course

    I think towards the end of that 25 consecutive year playoff run things maybe got a little off plan (to keep the streak alive – especially as beloved owner Mike Illitch’s health began to fail) but his M.O., his default is to plan ahead.

    Holland said the week before the draft he and his team spent hours and hours every day going over the depth chart projecting who will arrive when and where they would slot in. Essentially formulating the plan. (what an education for the middle Gretzky brother).

    When it got to free agency most of us were hoping for a top 6ish winger. Why didn’t Holland get one? It appears the guys that Holland wanted got 4+ years (save Simmonds who they were outbid for)(3rd line C Filppula went back ‘home’ to Detroit to Finnish where he started)(the Dzingel contract is an outlier to me – somethings odd there). Holland wasn’t willing to go past 3 years. Why not? Holland plans ahead. What happens after 3 years from now?

    Core players that will get new contracts between now and then:

    Darnell Nurse – 1 year left
    Nuge – 2 years left
    Larsson – 2 years left

    Who needs new contracts after 3 years?

    Bouchard (if he plays 10+ NHL games this season)
    and Samorukov

    Those could be large contracts.

    Ryan McLeod will also be up for a new contract

    Meanwhile the only substantial contracts that come off the books are Gagnay, Russell and Koskinen. But you need to sign another goalie.

    Could it be that Holland wouldn’t go 4 years because of that?
    That’s planning ahead.

    Here’s a quote from July 1 answering a question on why shorter term deals: “On the one year contracts, certainly that was part of the philosophy is….on the short term we want to compete for the playoffs in 19-20. On the longer term we want to build, certainly the building is going to be some of the drafting and developing and ultimately the pushing players through the system onto your roster. There are some young players here that need some time but I think they can be real important players to this team going forward”

    At the least it’s something to keep in mind as we evaluate the decisions Holland makes.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer: Man OP you are one patient man.. probably serves you well with your career choice.. Me.. Not so much. Carolina signed Dzingal to a decent contract for two years knowing his numbers so they certainly have confidence in him so I don’t really buy into those splits much.

    Not trying to be a jerk here but I do wonder what your reason will be next year when you say once again we need to stay patient when we have little cap space available and Holland does nothing but sign 4the liners again like we have the last two years and we end up finishing 31st lose the lottery.. and draft 4th overall.

    This is just the way I feel with BN ownership and now Holland. This team CMD and the fan base deserve better. Now I’m not saying go out and do stupid Chia moves but I am saying make a trade but get it right.

    You may also be correct in being patient but we’ve all seen this movie before.

    If it’s me.. I’m making a trade . There is still time for Holland to get it right and that’s what I’m hoping for and I believe you are too..

    As I said, the Dzingel contract is a fine contract but I wouldn’t want the Oilers to have signed it. Yes, it would make the team better this year mostly likely but, at the same time, it would inhibit the ability to acquire a true top 6 forward, a more substantial player, next off-season. As I’ve spelled out above, cap space isn’t flowing next year either. I do expect Holland to be able to open up more cap space next off-season, for various reasons, and be able to improve more substantially but we still aren’t going to be able to spend like the Colorodo’s and Hurricanes’ of the league did this year.

    I don’t want to “waste” that currency on Dzingel because I’d rather get a true impact forward in the next year.

    I’m patient because there is no choice – that it he position our prior GM put us in and its simply reality.

    As I’ve said, I expect a more substantial off-season next season including more disposition of cap heavy players such as Kris Russell. A Lucic bounce-back to 12G/30P would help this organization on so many levels.

  136. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: And who is this top 6 winger that wants to come here.
    Until someone can demonstrate that this team is done crawling through the 500 yards of shitsmelling foulness I can’t even imagine
    Players of high value will avoid us.
    If we are a competitive playoff team for a few years that may change
    Until then, keep building through the draft

    Good grief.
    Michael Ferland is a top six winger all day long and signed for $3.5 million in Vancouver.
    Would you prefer Chiasson and Granlund .

  137. ArmchairGM says:

    London Jon:
    Spooner has gone to Switzerland – which incidentally is where I am this week! Beautiful Zurich that is also TOTALLY SHUT at 10.45pm when you want to go for a nightcap (as I did an hour ago!!).

    I think we forget about how awful Strome for Spooner was as a trade because we now have Gagner, who is MARGINALLY better than Spooner.

    Eberle for Spooner. My god Peter Chiarelli was an idiot.

    Lest we forget.

    And Zurich certainly is beautiful – enjoy!

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Oh, I understand it all right. Holland has spent all the cap on players who make around $1M, the fact that they can be replaced with other players already on the 50-man roster making similar money is irrelevant. Either way there’s no cap space to bring in anything except another $1M player.

    And no material improvement to show for it.

    It doesn’t really seem that you do understand how it would actually work in practice.

    Subtract out 4 $1M bottom sixers – you feel that opens up cap space – we would have had cap space for a substantial forward. In reality that’s not the case because, sure, we could sign that $5M forward but now they are at a 21 player roster and don’t have the ability to fill it out.

    They aren’t going to run with a short roster, nor should they.

  139. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m confident he understands this but is simply choosing to ignore it because it doesn’t fit the narrative.

    It’s a narrative now?

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpersstrong>: Good grief.
    Michael Ferland is a top six winger all day long and signed for $3.5 million in Vancouver.
    Would you prefer Chiasson and Granlund .

    Yes, I’d prefer Granlund at $1.3M for this one year because it doesn’t inhibit me from acquiring an actual true top 6 forward next off-season. Ferland’s $3.5M sure would.

  141. ArmchairGM says:

    London Jon: If you have ten almonds and I take away those ten almonds and give you back ten almonds…do you have more or less almonds than you started with…

    See, now you’re starting to make sense. If you are at $80M cap and you demote a $1M player and replace him with a different $1M player, you’re still at $80M cap. You don’t have room to add a $5M player.

  142. Scungilli Slushy says:

    One meme around here is other teams that become ‘darlings’ because of some short term success or deal their GM made. Or the GM becomes the ‘darling’.

    Lately it seems to be Calgary Tampa and TO. Calgary and TO couldn’t win when it counted.

    Tampa is becoming the new Caps – dominant reg season, can’t win when it counts.

    What I see is that Calgary isn’t as well constructed as it seemed, a lot of their ideas didn’t work out, and they divested plenty of assets to get to a first round disappointment.

    TO has spent assets after another lack of Stanley Parade, is losing quality due to cap, and still has a suspect D group.

    Stevie Y bailed on Tampa, and it turns out that without Hedman they’re not so dominant.

    Top end D that are dominant 2 ways drive hockey teams, always have. They are some scarce players, there’s your answer to the Bro gamble. Holland knew the forwards well we know, obviously he felt the gamble was the way to go. Understandable given his glory years were driven by Lidstrom.

    Edit: by 2 way top D I don’t mean offensive D, points isn’t to me what makes that player type, it’s a balance between moving the puck to the O zone , getting above average points and being strong in the D zone. Playing all disciplines better than average.

  143. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, this blog was full of ideas on how to proceed – as it turns out most were unreasonable –

    But they weren’t, necessarily. Other GM’s made some of these moves, and sometimes for less cost than we thought they would be. Maybe Holland tried to make these moves too – we don’t know what we don’t know – but the fact is he wasn’t able to execute anything that moves the team forward. Which is what he gets $5M annually to do. The moves that he DID make are underwhelming and highly unlikely to move the team forward as well.

  144. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Good grief.
    Michael Ferland is a top six winger all day long and signed for $3.5 million in Vancouver.
    Would you prefer Chiasson and Granlund .

    I enjoy the style Ferland plays but it’s a catch 22 for him to be effective he has to be aggressive and when’s he’s aggressive he sooner then later end’s up on the shelf.

  145. Bulging Twine says:

    Benson had quite the season last year. A bit of a surprise. Now we are filled with hope that his injuries the past few seasons had temporarily masked his excellent talent that was shown at an early age. In Bantam AAA he got 146 pts in 33 games. That was a pts/60 of lot’s.

    Benson played on a line with Cooper Marody most of the season and both did extremely well. And both were rookies.

    In the bits and pieces that I watched this season I thought that Marody was the driver on the line. The puck carrier. The Kuznetzov. Marody had the better offensive season. 1.10 pts/game to Bensons .97.

    I got to thinking, I wonder if Marody zoomed Benson a little?

    Marody was recalled and demoted 3 times last season missing 8 Condors games while up with the Oilers.

    In those 8 Games how did Benson do? Did he maintain his .97 pt/game pace?

    He got 4 points.

    Oh – oh

    But

    Marody was injured in the playoffs by former Oiler Kale Kessy who dressed for 1 game and played with bad intentions.

    Marody missed 6 games

    How did Benson do? Thankfully he got 5 points in those 6 games. 3 in that crazy come from behind 7-6 OT win.

    The regular season results without Marody are a little concerning but the playoff results reassure.

  146. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: Good grief.
    Michael Ferland is a top six winger all day long and signed for $3.5 million in Vancouver.
    Would you prefer Chiasson and Granlund .

    Maybe all day but all season is a concern. Not withstanding a growing concussion issue, which may be hampering Benning.

  147. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I’d prefer Granlund at $1.3M for this one year because it doesn’t inhibit me from acquiring an actual true top 6 forward next off-season.Ferland’s $3.5M sure would.

    Ferland is a top 6 forward NOW.
    Granlund, Gagner and Chiasson will never be.
    What exactly are you waiting for?

  148. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja: I enjoy the style Ferland plays but it’s a catch 22 for him to be effective he has to be aggressive and when’s he’s aggressive he sooner then later end’s up on the shelf.

    In the last 4 seasons, Ferland has missed 31 games.
    Connor McDavid has missed 39.

  149. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Maybe all day but all season is a concern. Not withstanding a growing concussion issue, which may be hampering Benning.

    He missed 12 games last season.
    Meh.

  150. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: In the last 4 seasons, Ferland has missed 31 games.
    Connor McDavid has missed 39.

    Wow I thought he missed a whole whack more games then 31 because of concussion protocol my mistake.

  151. Woogie63 says:

    OriginalPouzar: How many of those “meh” signed for 3 X $4.5M with trade protection?

    Further, how many of them are over 30 years old with zero track record of success in the NHL?

    Would you rather place your bet Kinkaid and Smith on show me deals?

    In spring 2019, Koskinen is as good bet as 85% of the known options. He knew it as well, I am sure that was helped the inducements. I think the Oilers had just finished their pro scouting meetings before this deal was cut, so they had a full view of the field.

  152. Side says:

    London Jon: It IS a negative against the Boston GM, I agree, but the big mistake and disaster and burning of value in the whole situation was us offering the two picks for Reinhart as Plan B.

    So I think you have to blame Chiarelli. A lot…

    Oh yeah no doubt about that. The rejection and urgency of Chiarelli was ugly.

  153. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: He missed 12 games last season.
    Meh.

    Agreed but the brain isn’t like a broken bone. He may be golden, he may fall off a cliff.

  154. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Good grief.
    Michael Ferland is a top six winger all day long and signed for $3.5 million in Vancouver.
    Would you prefer Chiasson and Granlund .

    Ferland May have not had any interest in coming here, and we’re not exactly looking for heavy hockey types right now

    But I’m actually happy that we are not making any long term commitments
    We are not one forward away from the playoffs
    Almost all the other teams in conference are capped out
    Keep the powder dry
    Plan should be to compete in two years

  155. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Agreed but the brain isn’t like a broken bone. He may be golden, he may fall off a cliff.

    Could happen but likely won’t.

  156. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Guy that plays heavy hockey, hitting his late 20s. I think we’ve heard this record before
    You want the next Ferland
    At least they didn’t make the mistake of giving him Neal Erickson Okposo Lucic money and term

  157. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Reading Gregor’s piece on Archie makes me happy. Holland is getting things sorted. He wants to know about every team’s entire player depth, all significant leagues including Europe.

    Has that happened since Sather?

  158. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I’d prefer Granlund at $1.3M for this one year because it doesn’t inhibit me from acquiring an actual true top 6 forward next off-season.Ferland’s $3.5M sure would.

    Trades for draft picks, and or prospects can be made, so a $3.5M contract can be off loaded.

  159. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: Couldhappen but likely won’t.

    I hope not for him. As an Oilers fan I hope that now he’s paid he won’t play the same to extend his career 😀

  160. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Ferland May have not had any interest in coming here, and we’re not exactly looking for heavy hockey types right now

    But I’m actually happy that we are not making any long term commitments
    We are not one forward away from the playoffs
    Almost all the other teams in conference are capped out
    Keep the powder dry
    Plan should be to compete in two years

    Two years from now hardly any team team in the conference will be capped out.
    It’s not a zero sum game.
    Planning to compete in two years in the modern NHL is a fools game.
    It doesn’t work like that.

  161. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Two years from now hardly any team team in the conference will be capped out.
    It’s not a zero sum game.
    Planning to compete in two years in the modern NHL is a fools game.
    It doesn’t work like that.

    Cap is going to be flat next year as they try to level out escrow to a more palatable amount, but teams commitments to their players will go up next year as more players sign at these inflated prices.
    There is going to be a lot of talent available next year as most competitors are capped out.
    Even teams that always have had a lot of space and have been cap dumping grounds for cap like Arizona are capped out
    So yes it does work like that

  162. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I’d prefer Granlund at $1.3M for this one year because it doesn’t inhibit me from acquiring an actual true top 6 forward next off-season.Ferland’s $3.5M sure would.

    Off topic. Very little talk of McLeod. What line do you see him Centring in Bakersfield the 3rd and any idea what his faceoff pct is.

  163. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Cap is going to be flat next year as they try to level out escrow to a more palatable amount, but teams commitments to their players will go up next year as more players sign at these inflated prices.
    There is going to be a lot of talent available next year as most competitors are capped out.
    Even teams that always have had a lot of space and have been cap dumping grounds for cap like Arizona are capped out
    So yes it does work like that

    No it doesn’t.
    For example, in two years the Los Angeles Kinga will have $72 million in cap space.the Canucks will have $46 million.
    The Anaheim Ducks will have $35 million.
    The league doesn’t sit and wait for the Oilers to get their shit together.

  164. Reja says:

    leadfarmer: Cap is going to be flat next year as they try to level out escrow to a more palatable amount, but teams commitments to their players will go up next year as more players sign at these inflated prices.
    There is going to be a lot of talent available next year as most competitors are capped out.
    Even teams that always have had a lot of space and have been cap dumping grounds for cap like Arizona are capped out
    So yes it does work like that

    There has to be a compliance buy-out in the next contract. Practically every team would use it.The owners would be all in favour and so would the players unless I’m missing something.

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: See, now you’re starting to make sense. If you are at $80M cap and you demote a $1M player and replace him with a different $1M player, you’re still at $80M cap. You don’t have room to add a $5M player.

    You take out 4 $1M players, you also don’t have the room to add a $5M player as you need to add 3 additional players (in addition to the $5M player).

    The team doesn’t have the cap space to sign a $5M player but it has nothing to do with the depth of $1M signing – those roster spots need to be filled, whether its by Nygard, Hass, Sheehan, Currie, Joe G., Marody, etc.

  166. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: No it doesn’t.
    For example, in two years the Los Angeles Kinga will have $72 million in cap space.the Canucks will have $46 million.
    The Anaheim Ducks will have $35 million.
    The league doesn’t sit and wait for the Oilers to get their shit together.

    Something wrong in there.

    In two years, LA still have

    Kopitar $10 million
    Doughty $11 million
    Phaneuf $1 million
    Quick $6 million
    Brown $6 million
    Carter $5 millioin

    Or $37 million for 5 players.

    and around $50 million to sign 18 players. less than $3 million per player.

  167. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: No it doesn’t.
    For example, in two years the Los Angeles Kinga will have $72 million in cap space.the Canucks will have $46 million.
    The Anaheim Ducks will have $35 million.
    The league doesn’t sit and wait for the Oilers to get their shit together.

    Yes but you are naturally moving the goal posts
    Yes the basement dwellers will have cap
    With what the young players are getting paid a lot of that money will be spent internally for example you didn’t include the 20 mil for Boeser and Pettersson in your calculations
    But most competitive teams are and will be capped out.

    Also who left the door open and let DSF back in

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: But they weren’t, necessarily. Other GM’s made some of these moves, and sometimes for less cost than we thought they would be. Maybe Holland tried to make these moves too – we don’t know what we don’t know – but the fact is he wasn’t able to execute anything that moves the team forward. Which is what he gets $5M annually to do. The moves that he DID make are underwhelming and highly unlikely to move the team forward as well.

    Yes, the moves he did make were underwhelming – recall the general consensus (not unanimous) that an underwhelming July 1 was likely the smartest way forward.

    There were some reasonable suggestions – the (your) Connolly suggestion was indeed reasonable and we do know that Holland was in fact in on that player. Would you have been willing to give more term and/or hit to get him to Edmonton? I know your research shows he should be able to produce at as a top 6 player but, of course, he’s yet to establish himself in that role and the numbers don’t always win out.

    Don’t get me wrong, he would have made the team better this year but, as I’ve been stating, at the same time that’s $4M (give or take) not available next year to acquire a more substantial player. Connolly is not a slam dunk established top 6 player – the bet would have been reasonable but it would have been a marginal signing that worked to preclude a more substantial signing in the next few years where they’ll be better set up to take advantage of the market and cash strapped teams.

  169. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Ferland is a top 6 forward NOW.
    Granlund, Gagnerand Chiasson will never be.
    What exactly are you waiting for?

    Yes, those three will never be (although 22 goals is 22 goals whether zoomed on the PP and not at 5 on 5 or not) and Ferland is, however, Ferland is a marginal top 6 winger with concussion history that could/has stopped him from playing the type of game that has brought him success.

    I don’t want to commit $3.5M over the next four years to Ferland when that likely ihibits the ability to acquire a more substantial winger.

    Nyquist, Connolly, Dzingel, Ferland, Johaonsson, etc. – yes, all these players would help the Oilers this year but their contracts would serve to make it tougher to take advantage of cap issue teams in the next few years. Cap space becomes more available over the next few years but they still will not be swimming in it – there are only so many bullets and this year’s crop of 2nd tier forwards (i.e. below the Panarin level) was extremely marginal.

    Those are not the players I want the GM to over pay and commit to in free agency acknowledging what that means for this year but looking towards the ultimate goal.

  170. jp says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Holland is a planner.He plan’s years in advance.His hallmark is organizational stability.If your hallmark is organizational stability you have to plan ahead.

    Thanks for this.

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie: Would you rather place your bet Kinkaid and Smith on show me deals?

    In spring 2019, Koskinen is as good bet as 85% of the known options.He knew it as well, I am sure that was helped the inducements.I think the Oilers had just finished their pro scouting meetings before this deal was cut, so they had a full view of the field.

    I don’t agree that he’s as good a bet as 85% of the known options.

    Yes, I’d rather have Kinkaid at 2 X $1.75M than Koskinen at 3 X $4.5M – its a no-brainer,

    Kinkaid has at least had some success in the NHL and is actually younger than Mikko.

    Without Mikko at $4.5M, Holland likely would have been fully in the conversation for guys like Lehner, Mrazek, etc. If they were able to get a more established option then they could have bet on Starrett as the back up as well and save some more cash.

  172. Primetime says:

    jp:

    The #19 cap hit this year and last is Craig Anderson at $4.75M. So Koskinen is #20.

    If what we’ve seen is what Koskinen is, he’s paid fairly.

    Hey JP,

    That’s kind of my point though. “IF what we’ve seen is what Koskinen is”…that’s it…we have no idea. The contract was signed after a minuscule amount of games/evidence, yet he got paid. It makes no sense.

    Anderson has that contract after more than 10 years of evidence of what he can bring.

    And yes, this contract alone is not what separates the Oil and Tampa, but all of these overpays add up. Regardless of whether he lives up to the pay or not, the chance to get a bargain was there and was passed by

  173. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Good grief.
    Michael Ferland is a top six winger all day long and signed for $3.5 million in Vancouver.
    Would you prefer Chiasson and Granlund .

    Ferland 71-17-23-40
    Chiasson 73-22-16-38

    Ferland 4x$3.5M
    Chiasson 2×2.15M

    Now, I don’t think Chiasson will be a regular 22 goal scorer, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised at 15-20 goals (I guess I’m expecting that actually).

    Even aside from the injury concern with Ferland, is the difference worth 60% more salary plus 2 extra years? I guess you do.

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman: Trades for draft picks, and or prospects can be made, so a $3.5M contract can be off loaded.

    So you want to be in the position that we were in this off-season, needing to divest of cap in order to make any acquisition? That’s exactly what we don’t want.

    We saw this off-season how much cap space can cost.

    What if Ferland gets a fourth concussion, think its easy to divest?

    That plan leads us back to exactly where we have been this off-season – and for a marginal top 6 guy.

  175. Side says:

    godot10: Something wrong in there.

    In two years, LA still have

    Kopitar $10 million
    Doughty $11 million
    Phaneuf $1 million
    Quick $6 million
    Brown $6 million
    Carter $5 millioin

    Or $37 million for 5 players.

    and around $50 million to sign 18 players. less than $3 million per player.

    Shouldn’t it be $39 million and not $37 million?

    Edit: nevermind. I see you mention 5 players but listed 6

  176. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, those three will never be (although 22 goals is 22 goals whether zoomed on the PP and not at 5 on 5 or not) and Ferland is, however, Ferland is a marginal top 6 winger with concussion history that could/has stopped him from playing the type of game that has brought him success.

    I don’t want to commit $3.5M over the next four years to Ferland when that likely ihibits the ability to acquire a more substantial winger.

    Nyquist, Connolly, Dzingel, Ferland, Johaonsson, etc. – yes, all these players would help the Oilers this year but their contracts would serve to make it tougher to take advantage of cap issue teams in the next few years. Cap space becomes more available over the next few years but they still will not be swimming in it – there are only so many bullets and this year’s crop of 2nd tier forwards (i.e. below the Panarin level) was extremely marginal.

    Those are not the players I want the GM to over pay and commit to in free agency acknowledging what that means for this year but looking towards the ultimate goal.

    Thing is…the cap issues faced by other teams in the next few years is a moving target,.
    What you see now is not what you get.

  177. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Ferland 71-17-23-40
    Chiasson 73-22-16-38

    Ferland 4x$3.5M
    Chiasson 2×2.15M

    Now, I don’t think Chiasson will be a regular 22 goal scorer, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised at 15-20 goals (I guess I’m expecting that actually).

    Even aside from the injury concern with Ferland, is the difference worth 60% more salary plus 2 extra years? I guess you do

    Chiasson and Granlund equal Ferlands cap hit.
    I would take Ferland in a heartbeat.

  178. Primetime says:

    Harpers Hair: Thing is…the cap issues faced by other teams in the next few years is a moving target,.
    What you see now is not what you get.

    But it is for the Oilers?

  179. leadfarmer says:

    Only in DSF world would 1 player be a replacement for two players

  180. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Thing is…the cap issues faced by other teams in the next few years is a moving target,.
    What you see now is not what you get.

    I am highly confident that next off-season will be just like this off-season – many teams needing to divest.

    Holland agreed and said so expressly on July 1 and spoke to it being the Oilers turn in the future.

    Maybe he proves wrong but I think he has a pretty good read on it.

  181. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Chiasson and Granlundequal Ferlands cap hit.
    I would take Ferland in a heartbeat.

    Term is important, almost as important as AAV.

  182. jp says:

    Primetime: Hey JP,

    That’s kind of my point thought.“IF what we’ve seen is what Koskinen is”…that’s it…we have no idea.The contract was signed after a minuscule amount of games/evidence, yet he got paid.It makes no sense.

    Anderson has that contract after more than 10 years of evidence of what he can bring.

    And yes, this contract alone is not what separates the Oil and Tampa, but all of these overpays add up.Regardless of whether he lives up to the pay or not, the chance to get a bargain was there and was passed by

    It’s true, it was early to make the call that Koskinen is a starter, though the KHL/international track record does count for something.

    I was trying to give context for what $4.5M buys you – a below average starter. At years end the deal actually does look reasonable when you compare around the league. So maybe it was an opportunity missed, though i’m not sure how much less you’d reasonably expect him to sign for.

    As weird as it sounds, Koskinen could very well end up being a value deal. All he needs to do to cover the bet is repeat what he did, and I think it’s more likely he’s better than .906 next season than worse honestly.

    The overpays do add up, but the TBay analogy was a bit much.

    And on Anderson, he was 36 when he signed that 2 X $4.75 deal, so the 10 yrs evidence wasn’t really helping him at that point. He’s posted .898 and .903 FWIW.

  183. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Chiasson and Granlundequal Ferlands cap hit.
    I would take Ferland in a heartbeat.

    Fair enough.

  184. who says:

    London Jon: He has no cap space because PC wasted it all.

    Holland has used up almost no cap space as the only space he has spent has been on the $$$ to Chiasson, Smith and Khaira above 1m. All of the other signings can be buried in the AHL or returned to Europe with no cap impact.

    Gambardella/Currie in the NHL, basically same cap hit
    Nygard/Haas in the NHL, basically same cap hit
    Granlund/Archibald in the NHL, basically same cap hit

    Play with cap friendly and take those players in and out.

    THESE SIGNINGS DO NOT TAKE UP ANY OF THE CAP IF THEY DONT WORK OUT!!!!

    You are wasting your breath. Doesn’t seem like Armchair GM can grasp the whole cap space thing.

  185. Primetime says:

    jp,

    Good arguments…

  186. jp says:

    Reja: Off topic. Very little talk of McLeod. What line do you see him Centring in Bakersfield the 3rd and any idea what his faceoff pct is.

    You didn’t ask me but…

    Bakersfield should be stacked this year. The depth chart will look something like:
    Benson-Marody-Yamamoto
    Gambardella-Malone-Russell
    Maksimov-McLeod-Currie
    Peluso-Esposito-Hebig
    Vesey-Stukel-Safin

    (and the D for fun)
    Lagesson-Bear
    Lowe-Bouchard
    Samorukov-Day
    Kulevich-Desharnais

    Starrett-Skinner/Wells

    This is leaving space for some injuries (15 NHL forwards and 8 defense slot above the players shown here). So some of Cave, Brodziak, Nygard, Jurco, Jones, Persson could be added to the group. I think it’s highly likely the Oilers sign a UFA C (Sheahan, Boyle, Brassard, Lindberg), so pretty good chance Brodziak/Cave get bumped down.

    Even with all those guys not available to the Condors it’s not a given that McLeod will be 3C, though there’s a good chance. The Condors should be really good (if not the Oilers 🙂 )

    About his faceoffs, I don’t know, but I think I remember reading that his OHL coach used him for all the important draws on PP, PK and late in games. So that’s a good sign I guess.

  187. Reja says:

    jp: You didn’t ask me but…

    Bakersfield should be stacked this year. The depth chart will look something like:
    Benson-Marody-Yamamoto
    Gambardella-Malone-Russell
    Maksimov-McLeod-Currie
    Peluso-Esposito-Hebig
    Vesey-Stukel-Safin

    (and the D for fun)
    Lagesson-Bear
    Lowe-Bouchard
    Samorukov-Day
    Kulevich-Desharnais

    Starrett-Skinner/Wells

    This is leaving space for some injuries (15 NHL forwards and 8 defense slot above the players shown here). So some of Cave, Brodziak, Nygard, Jurco, Jones, Persson could be added to the group. I think it’s highly likely the Oilers sign a UFA C (Sheahan, Boyle, Brassard, Lindberg), so pretty good chance Brodziak/Cave get bumped down.

    Even with all those guys not available to the Condors it’s not a given that McLeod will be 3C, though there’s a good chance. The Condors should be really good (if not the Oilers )

    About his faceoffs, I don’t know, but I think I remember reading that his OHL coach used him for all the important draws on PP, PK and late in games. So that’s a good sign I guess.

    Could this be our hidden gem where his pro game translates better then his junior game. He reminds me of Jarret Stoll for some unexplained reason.

  188. jp says:

    Reja: Could this be ourhidden gem where his pro game translates better then his junior game. He reminds me of Jarret Stoll for some unexplained reason.

    Could be. He sure looked good in camp.

    But Stoll scored 75 points in his draft year (similar to McLeod). Then followed it up with 105 in draft +1 and 66 in 47 games in draft +2. Pretty big gap in the boxcars.

  189. rickithebear says:

    Ferland with similiar EVTOI Center & wings he played with on CGY & CAR.
    Monohan/ Gaudreau 1086:55 19 evg
    Aho/Teravainen 450:43 9.5 evg
    Stajan/ Bennett 236:35 1 evg
    Wallmark/Staal 185:41 1.5 evg

    When we look at three years of Ferland.
    Playing with top 15 players at their position on his line, he scores like a first line winger.
    Playing with 2nd/3rd line players he scores like a 3rd/4th line winger at even.
    Numbers Per Nat stat trick:
    This is why I never wanted to look at Ferland as a choice.
    You want your first line pair to play with the other player who they best achieve evg results with.

    We already have players who can generate 1st evg rates when playing with top 1st line players
    The first 2 generate the most evg/60 as a line with Drai/ Mcdavid
    Chaisson
    Kassian
    Granlund
    And
    Players who have generated top 4 fwd evg winger rates with 2nd/3rd line teamates.
    Chaisson
    Kassian
    Granlund.
    Archibald
    Gagner
    Why on earth based on real level of teamates data, would we even consider Ferland.

    That was the first thing I ask when looking at players dating back 12 years
    What does:
    First when a. My manual data, was only available
    then when b. Hockey stats analysis, became available
    Final only c. Nat stat trick, is available
    say about a player when they are not playing with the first line for that year.

    Ferland was an ideal choice for wing in Vancouvers, Calgary’s, & Carolina’s need
    A physical forward with very non physical 1st line forward pair.

    Calling Ferland a 1st liner is an interesting constructed narative.
    He is only a 1st liner with top 15 for position fwds.

    It is not what we needed.
    We had required 2nd line 8-9 evg scoring from our bottom 3 forward line wingers rather than the 5.5evg we got.
    2-4 of them will likely benefiting from 1st line winger scoring rates playing with Draisaitl & Mcdavid.

  190. jp says:

    rickithebear,

    Good to know.

    I don’t think any post mentioned Ferland and 1st line though. Top 6 was mentioned repeatedly, but not 1st line.

  191. rickithebear says:

    jp:
    rickithebear,

    Good to know.

    I don’t think any post mentioned Ferland and 1st line though. Top 6 was mentioned repeatedly, but not 1st line.

    He is not a top 6 .
    1st line with top 1st line players or 3rd/4th production with 2nd -4th players.
    Backlund was a 1st line evg production center with Calgary one year. Ferland benefit playing with this type of player.

  192. jp says:

    rickithebear: He is not a top 6 .
    1st line with top 1st line players or 3rd/4th production with 2nd -4th players.
    Backlund was a 1st line evg production center with Calgary one year. Ferland benefit playing with this type of player.

    Yes, I got that from your post and fair enough. I was just responding to this:

    rickithebear:

    Calling Ferland a 1st liner is an interesting constructed narative.
    He is only a 1st liner with top 15 for position fwds.

    No one called Ferland a 1st liner. You were the first to mention it. There was no constructed narrative.

  193. rickithebear says:

    jp:

    No one called Ferland a 1st liner. You were the first to mention it. There was no constructed narrative.

    People implied they would take him.
    He only generates 1st line results with top 1 st line forwards.
    Does not generate 2nd line results with lesser than 1st line.
    He generates 3rd/4th line evg numbers with2nd/3rd line forwards.
    No one is going to take him for 3rd/4th line production for 3.5M

    They “would take him”
    there can only be one reason.
    What Calgary, CAR, & VCR are thinking
    He is a physical winger to play with elite young less physical fwds.
    We already have that.
    For much less.

    Not a direct statement.
    But data can only justify one thought for wanting him.

    JP: using the term constructive narative.
    Is what I use when a fact based analysis comes up with results counter to repetative Opinion.

  194. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Subtract out 4 $1M bottom sixers – you feel that opens up cap space – we would have had cap space for a substantial forward

    See, you keep putting words in my mouth and then beating the straw man. You must be a lawyer!

  195. hunter1909 says:

    From reading the comments it’s plain to see we’re all in for another classic Deathmarch™ for next season.

    The only problem is: the website is wondering whether or not there’s any call for a message board for you wonderful fiends…err…fans.

    Do let us know before too long…these things seem to take forever to arrange.

    Thank you all from the DeathMarch™ taem…err…team.

  196. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: It’s true, it was early to make the call that Koskinen is a starter, though the KHL/international track record does count for something.

    I was trying to give context for what $4.5M buys you – a below average starter. At years end the deal actually does look reasonable when you compare around the league. So maybe it was an opportunity missed, though i’m not sure how much less you’d reasonably expect him to sign for.

    As weird as it sounds, Koskinen could very well end up being a value deal. All he needs to do to cover the bet is repeat what he did, and I think it’s more likely he’s better than .906 next season than worse honestly.

    The overpays do add up, but the TBay analogy was a bit much.

    And on Anderson, he was 36 when he signed that 2 X $4.75 deal, so the 10 yrs evidence wasn’t really helping him at that point. He’s posted .898 and .903 FWIW.

    I don’t think I can agree on this premise.

    There have been a multitude of goalie sign for way less money and term than Koskinen and Koskinen has no better track record or established history of success than most of them.

    Kinkaid was brought up. Yes, Kinkaid struggled last year but he’s at least had a few years where he has put up solid NHL numbers, including a 40 plus apperance season. He’s younger than Koskinen and signed for a third of the cap hit and one less year.

    He is no less of a bet than Mikko and MUCH cheaper with less commitment.

  197. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Could be. He sure looked good in camp.

    But Stoll scored 75 points in his draft year (similar to McLeod). Then followed it up with 105 in draft +1 and 66 in 47 games in draft +2. Pretty big gap in the boxcars.

    He did look good at camp last year but most higher end prospects do look good in camp, especially with size and speed – we’ve seen what it means vis-a-vis NHL readiness, very little (see Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, etc.

    McLeod is a very solid prospect – his offence stagnated a bit this year which was disappointing but he did have a plus playoffs.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if he needs a couple full years in the AHL but we’ll see.

    I agree with the depth chart and analysis above re: the AHL – very good write up and thank you.

  198. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear: He is not a top 6 .
    1st line with top 1st line players or 3rd/4th production with 2nd -4th players.
    Backlund was a 1st line evg production center with Calgary one year. Ferland benefit playing with this type of player.

    How is Chiasson a top line winger when he scored 0.75 G/60 and 1.25P/60 and his top 3 linemates were Drai, McDavid and Nuge?

  199. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: See, you keep putting words in my mouth and then beating the straw man. You must be a lawyer!

    Is your position not “if Holland didn’t sign so many $1M bottom six players, they would have room for a $5M winger”? I believe those are essentially your exact words, no?

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