Kevin Shattenkirk signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning Sunday night, some Oilers fans held some hope the veteran would land in Edmonton. The Oilers have three legit RH blue who count moving the puck as a real strength, all of them outside the NHL so far in their careers. Ken Holland is right to hold back on spending dollars and a roster spot on a veteran, it’s time to see what Joel Persson, Ethan Bear and Evan Bouchard can deliver.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
- New Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
- Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
- Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
- Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2019-20 Oilers might look like without trade missteps.
- Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
- Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
- Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
- Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
- Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
NHLE’S
Based on NHLE (and age) we can list Marody, Benson, Gambardella, Nygard, Currie and Haas as the forwards most likely to contribute in the NHL.
On defense? Bit more difficult because so much of the game for blue comes without the puck. I think we’re safe in listing Bouchard, Persson, Bear, Jones and Lagesson, although not in that order.
Could signing Shattenkirk have helped? Sure. However, the Oilers have to find out about these blue, sooner than later.
Even though you’re old as dirt, you try to stay hip to the younger generation—but your efforts only make you even more embarrassing.
Cultural artefact old-as-dirt: Beware the man of one book.
Cultural artefact updated for the Twitter generation: Beware the personage of one dust jacket.
High five!
Moon shuffle.
Some celebratory sound only Tina Turner could utter with dignity.
Generation Z: [giant eye roll] Hey, what’s a “dust jacket”, old man? Present, uh, fashion statement not included …
Hang dog.
Return to bedroom.
Fish out an old copy of Popular Mechanics you’ve still got hidden under the bed.
Sad, sad double paw-lick.
I can see Holland’s play as having Pool play a year in Europe and then letting him head over to Seattle.
Would be a good pickup for them — certainly better than Reinhardt — and not the worst loss off the roster.
Hoping?
******************
Is 1250 minutes over 3 years a large enough sample size to prove anything? I’m genuinely asking, because on another forum I’m the only guy that sees any value in Matt Benning at all, and looking at the numbers I think he can play 2RD. Certainly between him, Sekera and Russell we should be able to cover 2RD next season, but the numbers for Benning are intriguing.
To start with I used a proxy for “top-4” each year going back to 2016-17, based on TOI v Elites taken from puckiq.com, as follows:
2016-17: Sekera (35.5%), Klefbom (34.6)
2017-18: Nurse (34.9), Klefbom (32.3)
2018-19: Klefbom (35.1), Nurse (33.8)
Next I went to naturalstattrick.com and, using their “Teammates” tool, filtered all the stats for each year for the TOI Benning spent with each player listed above. I realize there were times when Russell-Benning were the 2nd pairing, but there may have been games that they were 3rd pairing too and I didn’t want to confuse the numbers with 3rd pairing data. Then too, who you play with is as important as who you play against, so showing those games where Russell-Benning played 2nd pairing probably doesn’t give us much information about potential combos this coming season, unless the injury bug strikes down 2-3 of the top-5 guys. For reference though, Russell-Benning were together just 21:04 in 2018-19 and outscored the competition 2-1. Negligible.
So I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:
TOI: 1250:19
CF%: 52.79
FF%: 53.00
SF%: 53.17
GF%: 55.65
xGF%: 53.71
SCF%: 52.75
SCGF%: 56.99
HDCF%: 52.69
HDGF%: 56.72
Sh%: 9.51
Sv%: 91.75
PDO: 1.013
Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:
With McDavid
TOI: 420:30
CF%: 55.19
FF%: 56.65
SF%: 56.14
GF%: 62.96
xGF%: 56.10
SCF%: 55.27
HDCF%: 55.10
HDGF%: 59.38
Sh%: 14.05
Sv%: 90.73
PDO: 1.048
Without McDavid:
TOI: 829:47
CF%: 51.39
FF%: 50.88
SF%: 51.49
GF%: 49.18
xGF%: 52.06
SCF%: 50.97
HDCF%: 50.80
HDGF%: 54.29
Sh%: 8.20
Sv%: 94.67
PDO: 1.029
The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.
And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and our own Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.
The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.
Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is a top-pairing guy or even a sure-fire top 4. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of the other top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:
Benning: 49.18 (while in the top-4 only)
Nurse: 44.51
Russell: 43.87
Larsson: 43.68
Klefbom: 40.27
Sekera: 40.00 (includes bottom-pairing time)
For reference, Benning’s overall GF% without McDavid (just so we’re comparing apples-to-apples) is 51.45%.
I think Holland plans to use the season to find out about the 3 defensemen who will lose their waiver status this year (or possibly 4 with Persson?). I must emphasize “season” – if he wanted to find out about them by the end of October then having Russell in the lineup is a problem, otherwise it is not.
Consider this: in 2018-19 the Oilers gave 13 defensemen NHL games, and after the top 5 the others had enough ice-time to give the coaching staff a very good idea about each’s strengths and weaknesses. They played as follows:
Gravel: 529:31 in 36 gp
Sekera: 395:43 in 24
Jones: 336:33 in 17
Garrison: 215:49 in 17
Manning: 161:00 in 12
Petrovic: 126:16 in 9
Bouchard: 86:28 in 7
Wideman: 57:10 in 5
That’s 1900 minutes for guys who started the year as the #6D on the depth chart or lower. The year prior was similar:
Sekera: 587:54 in 36 gp
Auvitu: 447:19 in 33
Davidson: 399:10 in 23
Bear: 335:22 in 18
Gryba: 309:24 in 21
Lowe: 27:48 in 2 games
That’s slightly over 2100 minutes. It seems Holland has eschewed veteran D for the 7/8/9 etc. roles, so seeing the youngsters filling this chart will be the rule this year, not the exception as it has been in the past. I’m sure a few emergency minutes will be played by an AHL veteran like Lowe, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like this:
Jones: 510:00 in 30 gp
Persson: 480:00 in 30
Lagesson: 310:00 in 20
Bear: 250:00 in 18
Bouchard: 240:00 in 20
Samorukov: 72:00 in 6
Day: 50:00 in 5
Lowe: 30:00 in 3
I think that’s enough minutes to give Holland a very good idea who to keep and who to move next summer.
Hey guys/gals, I’m scratchin to find anything on McDavids recovery and not having much luck, anyone see anything new out there? Super curious if he will be at or close to 100% for the start of the season.
Thanks in advance
I don’t have a clear answer whether this is more or less than other teams. I suspect a lot of the perception is familiarity bias though.
Your examples go back over 15 years. And it’s not like all of them were blue chip prospects (Omark and Slepyshev would be considered draft successes despite their short careers based on where they were drafted).
I don’t know that the personnel assessment, at least at the draft level is as bad as it appears.
Everyone is making valid points but I think the above post does contradict itself a little bit.
Hockey is a tough game and injuries happen – NHL teams generally use 10 or so d-man a year. Given the forgoing, there will be time for each of Lagesson and Jones and even Bear to show where they are before they need to be re-signed and decisions need to be made on them.
No need to rush them in to the lineup on October 2, their time will come.
I’m not against using Russell in that 6/7 role but I just don’t think our veteran coach will do that to start the year. If 2 of Jones/Lagesson/Persson prove to be more positive material contributors on the ice than Russell, then, as the season goes on, we may see some tough decisions by the coach.
Benning and Nurse were the most recent I believe. So not so long ago.
Agreed on the injuries, and that we shouldn’t worry about ice for the young guys. Some of them will struggle too, we just don’t know which ones.
Correct me if I am wrong here, please. The tone that “pumping stories” engenders is that the Oilers are creating a false narrative regarding Puljujarvi to justify their position of moving on from him.
I have my fan bias for sure, but I don’t see it that way. What if it’s just the case that Puljujarvi just isn’t what he seemed to be on draft day? Just another failed draft choice.
We have had similar heated debates about Schremp, Omark, Lander, Paajarvi, Yakupov, Slepyshev. With wildly opposing views that the Oilers management and player development was to blame but exactly none of these players went somewhere else and excelled. Some have had careers, but none have starred, yet the sense was at that time that these were all important pieces the Oilers messed up on.
So I think Oiler personnel assessment has failed. They have continually chosen individuals who have failed to meet expectations and of course I have only listed a small number of recent failures. There’s a long list.
My question to those of you who dig in to this more – is this level of personnel assessment failure greater than other teams? It seems so to all of us, but is that familiarity bias? Do other teams make these errors, this often?
Only time will tell, but the sense I get is Puljujarvi will turn out to be no better than Yakupov or Schremp.
I don’t believe any NHL coach is at the whim of any player as far as lineup deployment.
I don’t think any respected NHL coach takes a job when he has to listen to a player with respect to lineup decisions.
The tornado wasn’t even the start of the phrase either. The use of the slogan in Edmonton dates back to 1984, when Councillor Cavanagh and Leo Leclerc coined it as a way to promote Edmonton. Its use was popularized in 1987, when Mayor Lawrence Decore used it to describe Edmonton’s response to the tornado. Edmonton Sun columnist Terry Jones also used it in 1987, when the Edmonton Eskimos and Edmonton Oilers both won championships. The City never officially sanctioned the slogan.
Yeah, but who is he going to bump off the power play? Hedman or Sergachev?
Jesse for McLeod would be a lost trade, let alone adding Bear! Zachary would be interesting, however. I’m not sure I’d add Bear to that one either, though…
– This is exactly the reason for my strong conviction that long term its way better to have CMD and Drai cantering their own lines: to develop better wingers which in turn will make the team better
– While theirbscoring together is impressive and elite as a line they need to learn how to be Cs with “less talented “ wingers.
– Sure for awhile their individual scoring might go down and we might win a few less games untill they get chem with the right wingers but play them on two lines and you end up with twice as many elite Cs and twice as many elite Ws
– I know I’m right on this despite trotting out the stats on how they are elite together blah blah.
Unless I’m wrong they didn’t sign him to penalty kill and play the toughs.
Players don’t get involved with contract disputes and certainly not when another player has demanded a trade. Are the Maple Leafs players clamoring in the media about Marner? Doesn’t happen.
Morning owls? 😀
This is complete speculation. I wish people would stop this false narrative.
We have some night owls in here tonight!
Shattenkirk won’t be padding stats in TB unless he gets significant PP time, or unless they give him the Sergachev treatment (I.e. 70% OZS).
After researching it, it looks it it actually *was* coined to promote the city due to the success of and pride in minor sports teams other than the Oilers or Esks (it was coined in 1983-1984, so the early 80s, before the Oilers took off but after the crazy streak by the Esks), as well as the hosting of the Commonwealth Games and Summer Universiade.
Then in 1987, it became a uniting slogan to support the people and how they came together to help everyone get through a tragedy. The truth, then, lies in both origins.
JimmyV1965,
Doesn’t anyone remember Justin Schultz?
Shattenkirk is what he is. I think most people here didn’t want him because we have internal options at defence. We have far fewer internal options at forward. It didn’t make sense to sign him. If we’re going to spend cap space it makes more sense to get a forward. Signing Shattenkirk is the woods before the trees.
russ99,
I don’t think many teams are able to run a top-6/7 most of the year. Hockey is a physical game, injuries and (for that matter) slumps happen. Guys are going to get rotated in and called up at various points throughout the season.
You’re likely right, as I also suspect Russell will fare better on his natural side and against weaker QoC, but at some point we need to test drive the young’uns before they lose their waver eligibility to see exactly what we have. Otherwise we’ll trade away latent value without realizing the potential to our team. Which is so Oilers.
Rusty is a competent vet, who is well suited to fill in for spot duty and can play competent minutes in the event of injuries or slumps. He’s cover at this point; no need to invest crucial development minutes on a non-core asset who is one of the last guys you’d want mentoring rookies in the finer points of defending.
Jethro Tull,
If we’re to ice a defensive liability in the name of offence, I’d rather:
A) he be cheap, and
B) he be young enough to either iron out that element of his game, or still be of tradeable reputation without value penalty.
This is not to say Jones cannot learn the finer points of play without the puck. If he’s put in the right spots with a steady partner, like Benning, he could flourish. If not, Willie has as good a chance to succeed and we gain valuable intel in both cases for trying.
For the record, if it were up to me, I’d leave Bouchard in the AHL for a year to learn as much as possible away from the bright lights so he can come in and make a consistent impact.
A D man that is almost universally recognised here as ineffectual, lacks offence, gives up offensive possession in high danger areas on one of the worst teams in the league “should be an easily moved target” and yet we should shun players like Shattenkirk because Bouchard is apparently better at this point in his career.
Little bit of “woods for the trees” in here today.
BornInAGretzkyJersey,
When was the last time the Oilers has a defenseman break into the majors and play up to a NHL full time role in his first season?
When was the last time the Oilers got through a season without injury to the top 6, or even top 8.
They’re will be plenty of icetime for everyone, and I’m confident Russell will have an improved season on the left side. No need for pressboxing anyone.
Scungilli Slushy,
Sun’s Tzu(ming) who?
godot10,
Count me in.
People may bemoan the impact on future ability to trade Russell if he sees considerable press box time this year, but with the gap between salary and cap hit, next year one is simply trading a competent (if flawed) 5-6 dman contract with favourable terms. If he can contribute, it’s a bonus. He is due a signing bonus of $1MM, and a salary of $1.5MM, so he should be an easily moved target next off season or either deadline. That’s the type of contract that appeals to a contending team at the deadline, or a cap-floor team before next year starts.
That’s not really how it works in professional sport (or elite sport).
I also highly doubt either of them “refused” to play with him.
OriginalPouzar,
After the hullabaloo surrounding the removal of the ‘City of Champions’ moniker, John Short suggested a simple rebranding of ‘A City of Champions’ to help guide public perception. I thought it was quite astute; unfortunately, city council decided to evaporate tens of thousands of taxpayer’s dollars to marginal effect.
If you were coach with that attitude your tenure would be short lived. The star player makes far more money and who do you think is easier to replace. I would think it more likely that at least one of the Oiler coaches used JP as his whipping boy and the team followed suit.
The one thing he does control is his play in Europe. Play well and everything changes.
I may be wrong here, but I’ve heard Otten’s podcast and I believe he’s a huge Guelph fan. He may be simply gushing over a prospect he’s seen often and likes. I’m not saying this to diminish the prospect though. Just food for thought.
How do you develop an offensive winger without a offensive centre to work with. I am not discounting what you are saying. What I am saying is you have a young right shot player and the parent team needs a right shot centre. Given you do not have a centre that can help him develop as a scoring winger and you have a player who likes to carry the puck and is defensively aware what the hell do you have to lose? Tunnel vision is is often responsible for missing the obvious. Thinking outside the box or putting players in a position to succeed has not been a strength of the organization. We have spent a number of years hammering square pegs into round holes.
Don’t see it happening.
Russell is still an effective dman. They are not paying him 4 million to sit in the press box.
It would also sewer any chance they have of trading him next summer. That would leave a buyout as the only option. Not a desirable result at all.
My guess is that if 2 rookies prove they are ready Benning gets traded in season. If only 1 is ready, Benning stays.
The thing is, by midseason, we could have 6 rookie dmen pushing for a spot on the NHL roster.
That first dash is a clear drop the mic for the ages as far as sports dominance goes.
You could, yes, however I consider it highly unlikely to start the season. If Russell struggles and 2 rookies are pushing hard then it could happen but i don’t see Tippett healthy scratching Russell to start the year.
Sometimes, if you lay down your sword, the end result is better.
Jesse is at that point IMO. He can fight, but he can’t win.
The pot of gold lies with King Holland. The journey cannot be short. It also doesn’t have to be long. Never throw away the favour of the ‘sovereign’.
Unless you’re certain of a coup.
You can play two rookie D if you play Persson with Klefbom and Jones(or Lagesson) with Benning. Nurse and Larsson tasked to hold back the ocean.
Russell is the vet in the pressbox
That’s right, outsiders incorrectly believe the phrase/name was coined due to sports teams.
Listening to the CoH podcast earlier today talking about the prospect goalies and I really like the professional youngsters are set up.
Each of Skinner, Konovalov and Wells are within a year of each other in age (in that order from youngest to oldest). Skinner and Wells each have two-years left on their ELC and Konovalov is under contract in Russia for 2 years (and will get to develop being a starting tender in a top league and not black or compete with the other two for ice – as the guys mentioned). What I like is that, after 2 years, we should have a good sense of where these players are and if/when they’ll have NHL careers and re-signing decisions will be made at that time in conjunction with and knowledge of how the others are progression.
Plus Rodrigue, turning pro next year at this time.
I’m sure they’d be happy to have him. How much they’re able to pay him is the question.
He was also drafted by Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod of the KHL, so I assume they own his rights. According to this (https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/khl-teams-salary-budgets.2437903/) Torpedo’s total payroll was about $12M in 17-18.
As has been noted he’ll be leaving a ton of money on the table if he ends up in Europe this season.
Black Friday July 31st 1987. But the name stuck to outsiders being attributed to the Oilers Esks I can’t remember if the Trappers or the indoor soccer team was kicking ass at that time as well.
I can’t see him moving Nurse to his off-side, even if he wasn’t on record as stating his strong preference is for leftie-rightie.
I can absolutely see him starting Benning at 2RD and think its a much more reasonable likelihood than him putting Nurse on his off-side (even though us, behind computers and the television, think there could be merit to it given his game).
Benning has had an aggregate of success in the top 4 including with Klefbom. Over 3 years, Klefbom’s numbers go up across the board with Benning and the two of them have all positive numbers together – close to 800 minutes.
Enjoyed the piece on Marody.
Would love to see him pot 13 goals and 33 points ala Devon Shore.
Hard to imagine that we had five forwards score more than ten goals last season though we traded Strome and Caggiula.
Forwards to score ten or more:
1. Draisatl
2. McDavid
3. Nuge
4. Kassian
5. Chiasson
6. Neal
7. Archibald
8. Granlund
9. ? Gagner
10 ? Benson
11. ?Marody
12. ?Jurco
13. ?Nygard
LT – thanks for providing some of the individual numbers re: Marody from his first couple of games.
Some helpful information.
But Tippet did leave it open that a d could play their off side. And playing Nurse on the right paired with Russell on the 2nd pair would give him two proven top 4 d on the second pair. I can’t see him hoping that Benning or Persson is able to handle to 4 d as his go to plan.
Correct, however, it wasn’t called the City of Champions because of the sports teams either – surprised this isn’t front and center given a the anniversary earlier this weekend.