The overtime on Saturday afternoon between the Oilers and Penguins was splendid entertainment. Getting to the extra frame was a marathon of endurance and skill, as the public at large worried about the quality and amount of rubber faced by Mike Smith. You can’t win this way over a season, over even a month, but on the second day of November 2019, the Oilers rode the big train to glory.
Leon Draisaitl’s overtime winner combined power, speed and skill in equal portions, and showed once again how dominant the big man is at this time. Can he score 50 again? Who on planet earth would bet against him?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Mailbag: Fixing the forward depth, slotting the big three, a Puljujarvi trade and more
- Minnia Feng: The 2019-20 Oilers fan guide to emotions and stressful circumstances
- Jonathan Willis: How much will the Oilers have to pay to keep pending free agent Zack Kassian?
- Lowetide: Sheahan hurt, Oilers in need of a two-way centre; some candidates emerging
- Jonathan Willis: Handicapping the chase for the Calder after the first month of the 2019-20 NHL season
- Jonathan Willis: Unproductive Oilers forwards are in danger of losing their jobs — and soon
- Lowetide: Analyzing the current state of the Edmonton Oilers goaltending.
- Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers trade for a veteran NHL defenceman?
- Lowetide: Oilers first-round pick Philip Broberg increases his role; Condors’ Caleb Jones looks NHL-ready
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I don’t think anyone’s feeling comfortable’: Oilers’ Holland pleased but cautious amid early improvements.
- Lowetide: Josh Archibald’s injury and limited replacements available puts some pressure on Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 reasons why the Oilers passed their first true test of the season
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and James Neal are leading a quality Oilers second line
- Lowetide: Assessing the early season progress of Oilers’ defence and goaltending
- Jonathan Willis: A rare success during Edmonton’s long rebuild, why Oscar Klefbom is the model for finishing Oilers’ blue line
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s impressive Liiga performance headlines Oilers prospects this week
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers afford to pursue Taylor Hall in free agency?
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
OILERS AFTER 15 GAMES
- Oilers 2015: 5-10-0, 10 points; goal differential -8
- Oilers 2016: 9-5-1, 19 points; goal differential +6
- Oilers 2017: 6-8-1, 13 points; goal differential -11
- Oilers 2018: 8-6-1, 17 points; goal differential -2
- Oilers 2019: 10-4-1, 21 points; goal differential +8
This is the first McDavid Oilers club to post 10 wins in the team’s first 15 games. The 2019-20 club also has the best goal differential over the last five seasons.
OILERS IN NOVEMBER
- Oilers in November 2015: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +2
- Oilers in November 2016: 0-0-1, one point; goal differential -1
- Oilers in November 2017: 0-1-0, no points; goal differential -1
- Oilers in November 2018: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +4
- Oilers in November 2019: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +1
A good result to start another month, November has (in the past) been the month that separates the Oilers from the playoffs. The team has never posted more than 13 points or fewer than 10—and has never been above .500 in November since McDavid’s arrival. It’s a big month to come.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0)
- On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1)
- At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 1-0-0, 2 points after one game
Seven wins and 15 points (as predicted) would mean the Oilers finish November at 16-10-2, 34 points in 28 games. That projects to 99.6 points over 82 games. All numbers five-on-five unless noted, and via NST.
LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 13:57, were a ghastly 3-22 Corsi, 1-16 shots, no goals and 0-5 HDSC.
Leon Draisaitl had one shot, played much of the first 60 in his own end and seemed to be missing on passes or receiving passes just out of his reach. That all changed in OT, as he turned a sliver into absolute daylight. His brilliant breakaway goal, equal parts brawn and beauty, won the game. Connor McDavid drew a penalty and had a takeaway, but this was possibly the least effective game I’ve ever seen from him. Nothing he was doing wrong especially, credit the Penguins tight checking (they were on him whenever the puck came within a 10 mile radius). He made a lovely pass to Klefbom, who sent it behind the net and it caromed off the boards and right to Jujhar Khaira for a great chance. Zack Kassian had a shot and four hits, he was the only member of the line who spent much time at all with clean air.
LINE 2 Jujhar Khaira-Nuge-Sam Gagner played 9:37, went 5-12 Corsi, 3-8 shots, no goals and 1-3 HDSC.
Jujhar Khaira had what might have been the best chance of the game, mentioned above. One shot, three hits, took a penalty he didn’t earn (horrible call). Nuge had a great SH chance, but didn’t get much done at five-on-five. Solid in the dot. Sam Gagner had his quietest game since the recent recall.
LINE 3 Alex Chiasson-Gaetan Haas-James Neal played 7:16, going 6-9 Corsi, 4-6 shots, 2-0 HDSC.
Alex Chiasson had two shots, a takeaway and a couple of hits. He gets lost a little without a skill center, but he is trustworthy. Gaetan Haas had one brilliant play on the back check, very dangerous sortie resolved with his heady play. Also had two shots and one HDSC. James Neal had one HDSC, a takeaway and cleared the netfront in an insane game moment.
LINE 4 Markus Granlund-Colby Cave-Patrick Russell played 6:18, going 6-7 Corsi, 3-2 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-1 HDSC. Music!
Markus Granlund had an assist, drew a penalty had a couple of shots and played well overall. Colby Cave had a strong game, scoring a goal, winning eight of 11 faceoffs at five-on-five and showing he has no interest in returning to California. Patrick Russell had a shot and a HDSC worked hard and effectively.
PK minutes: Nuge 3:43; Patrick Russell 3:40; Colby Cave 3:03; Markus Granlund 3:03; Leon Draisaitl 2:31; Jujhar Khaira 2:09. No goals against.
2019-20 OILERS
PAIRING ONE Oscar Klefbom and Joel Persson played 14:04, going 7-24 Corsi, 4-15 shots, no goals and 2-4 HDSC. Klefbom was 0-12 shots with McDavid in 8:37. My.
Oscar Klefbom had one shot and a takeaway, he looks slower lately and I wonder about all this icetime. Made smart plays with the puck and battled through a tough Penguins forecheck. Joel Persson had one shot and a takeaway, he scrambles but gets the job done. I’m starting to believe he can fill an NHL role.
PAIRING TWO Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 13:55, going 6-13 Corsi, 1-9 shots, no goals and 0-3 HDSC. Pairing spent 8:04 with 97, and the group was 1-6 shots. Le holy.
Darnell Nurse had some good moments, including a blocked shot with the team in extreme peril when Mike Smith was out of position. He rumbled up the ice several times, dishing well but nothing came of it. I do like that he is often seen passing the puck to Bear for the outlet. Ethan Bear missed several minutes late in the first period after his leg (or knee) twisted on a tight check. Bear returned and played well. JB on twitter noted Bear following up Draisaitl for loose change on the GWG. Nice.
PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 10:49, 9-16 Corsi, 5-9 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-4 HDSC.
Kris Russell defended well and hit like a cement truck, he doesn’t get a lot of credit but on this night was part of the most successful pairing. Matt Benning had an assist, two shots, a takeaway and two penalties. I liked his game.
GOALIE Mike Smith was the star of the game, stopping all 38 five-on-five shots and 51 of 52 overall (.981). Oilers are always in these blasted games where the goalie plays Jesus.
CONDORS 2019-20
I’ll be writing about the Condors today at The Athletic, but it appears Jay Woodcroft has found the right chemistry for his group this season. Some items: Stuart Skinner has emerged as the starter with Shane Starrett down (I didn’t see much difference between Skinner and Dylan Wells); The addition of Lagesson and Day has given the team far more defensive torque; Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody appear to be starting to push again.
As per Stauffer:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Chiasson
Neal-RNH-Kassian
Khaira-Granlund-Gagner
Haas-Cave-P Russell
Nurse-Bear
Klefbom-Persson
Russell-Benning
Koskinen in starters net
——————————-
No Sheahan yet – Haas and Granlund switch places, other wise, same lines/pairings.
Agree with the Mikko start – keep Smith rested and ensure Mikko doesn’t get rusty.
A better punishment would have been to make them play him 20 minutes a night for two games
Yes, I presume it would be Haas.
Perhaps it is one last showcasing for the waiver wire before being sent down?
Yeah, Arizona was my pre season pick to surprise and they’re delivering…second in the league at GA/G just behind Boston.
Although I thought Phil Kessel might have a bigger influence on their scoring.
I imagine you bought Irish Whisky with it and then pissed it away ?
Good post. Let me repeat that. Good post.
This should be a fun game – more implications than one is used to for a November game with Arizona.
I assume Mikko starts given Smith had the last two but who knows given how good Smith is. I think it makes sense to keep Smith rested and not lets Mikko get stale.
Will be interesting to see what happens if Sheahan is read to go. Can’t take Cave out after his last game. Granlund had his best game of the year. Maybe Haas.
🙂
True story.
Way too early, but I like ARI +1000 to win the Pacific for the regular season right now. Its a good price considering they have EDM at +350 and they have near the same pts% (EDM .700, ARI .651 – edited as previous posted they were tied)
Goalies are everything in the playoffs. Here’s every team with an all situations .920+ SV% so far:
Team SV%
Boston Bruins 93.43
Arizona Coyotes 92.95
New York Islanders 92.89
Anaheim Ducks 92.61
Vancouver Canucks 92.2
Edmonton Oilers 92.14
Pittsburgh Penguins 92.07
Buffalo Sabres 92.04
BOS is nutty so far this year.
I don’t start making playoff futures bets until the All star break when you can get some good prices on under valued teams.
I made a couple pre-season like $50 on CAR +6000 to win the Cup and ~+4000 to win the East because I knew I’d never see that price again.
Today CAR is +1800 to win the Cup and +1000 to win the EC (including playoffs)
New for The Athletic: Can Leon Draisaitl score more than 50 goals this season?
https://theathletic.com/1347222/2019/11/04/lowetide-can-leon-draisaitl-score-more-than-50-goals-this-season/
Lol. That’s a good comeback.
I won $300 from you the year previous.
You were using your own money after I used it for a year.
Yes. The tie-breaker game was, as I imperfectly recall, a late decision when someone realized there was publucity to be had & money to be made. Go figure. It was ordered to be held at a neutral site, which turned out to be Calgary. Not so neutral for the then-Alberta Oilers. I listened to it on the radio but alas, Oilers fell 4-2.
Why are you always trying to tell everyone what to think?
If you’re recieving unsolicited images of someone’s fal
Phallus,
You should probably block that person’s number
#protip
Sorry, I completely mistook your original lead statement. I was having some difficulty sussing out the meaning of your non sequitur.
In this specific case then…
I am not a drum beater. Not even in real life. I don’t tell the same stories repeatedly from an arsenal of stories like many do. I’m mostly extemporaneous.
I repeated my opinion in this instance though, and mentioned your name, because I have directed that opinion to you on multiple occasions and have never had you respond to it or even acknowledge the possibility that we don’t know Hall’s intent and to assume he’s looking for max term is, well, an assumption.
As far as your comment in general….
Think of someone you know well re-telling a story you’ve heard a gazillion times before… when they start up with that familiar intro at some point there’s going to be an internal groan.*
Now think of it being done by someone you don’t know and love, and it’s not a story but an opinion, perhaps a disagreeable one (to you), and it’s not oral but in writing…
At some point in that gazillion times, it sucks the oxygen out of the metaphorical room…
The reactions can be…
–doesn’t this person allow other opinions the space to breathe, y’know once in a while?
–does the expresser of the opinion think we’re all stupid and don’t remember what he has repeated countless times before?
–does this person feel the need to control the conversation?
–is the person desperate for attention (like DSF… and really all of us here in the internet)
–is this person purposely boring us?
–why is my time being wasted by something I’ve already heard countless times before?
etc etc.
Or not. Not everyone is going to have the same reaction. But constantly repeating the same opinion over and over certainly invites criticism. Be foolish to think otherwise.
What has you thinking constant repetition is good and something that should be strived for?
____________________
*oral tradition is based on and relies on repetition, so gets a much bigger pass from people.
yeah it sucks man but I don’t think they look at depth minutes on an un-deep team as a resource
Assuming no more injuries (big assumption), Manning will be re-assigned (will need to hit waivers first, again) when Larsson is activated.
We saw pretty darn clear evidence of the coach’s preference for Manning over Lagesson with notwithstanding it provided zero information on Lagesson, his next contract or his future with the org.
Don’t see that changing next time injury trouble abounds.
Unfortunately.
I’m not talking about criticizing the opinion – I welcome that, I post for discussion.
I’m talking about being criticized for repeating an opinion.
Would really like Holland to move Manning, trade or to the minors, don’t care. Would rather have Lagesson play.
If one iterates an opinion once—publicly—one is essentially asking for it to be criticized, or at the very least disagreed with.
The more often it is iterated, the more likely this will happen. To not expect this is silly.
But if no one cares two flying effs about the original person’s opinion, it will likely not be responded to at all.
For eg., by responding to DSF, you are showing that you care about his opinion being expressed. By repeatedly responding to his opinion (ie criticizing), you show that the care you have is negative, ie for him not to express his opinion. Which, of course, just encourages him.
but, at the same time, Fracis Perron’s 8 games this year in the AHL should be used as direct evidence of the Canuck’s superior prospect group?
I’m sure if he was a Canuck prospect, you wouldn’t be writing off Marody. He has 73 pts in 72 AHL games before his 23rd birthday. It’s foolish to dismiss that kind of production, even if he is slow. Marody will get a shot with some NHL team. If he fails that test, you can write him off as a prospect.
JimmyV1965,
Well, he’s no McDavid or MacKinnon. But he’s also no Marody.
Speaking of unsustainable – Nuge’s goose-egg for 5 on 5 goals is unsustainable.
Tierny has a chart measuring Goals vs. Expected Goal and Nuge is right near the top of that list.
Unsustainability doesn’t just go one way
Is Cave fast though? I was frankly shocked to see him beat Peterson on that play. I’ve never considered him fast.
I know exactly what all those stats and metrics mean – I also am well aware that they were cherry-picked to fit a narrative.
Wait, we can reiterate opinions over periods of time without being criticized for it?????
I do think Taylor believes himself when he says he wants to win and will take less but we’ve heard that type of statement countless times over the years with less than correlated outcomes.
If the player was willing to sign for four years in Edmonton, I’d have much time for that discussion but I’m still not certain trying to fit in another $10M forward is the best path forward for this team.
Bruce, wasn’t that the case for the Oilers first year in the WHA? They were tied with Minnesota for the last playoff spot and then the league decided to have a one game playoff. I dont know if they didn’t have a tiebreaker in place or if they just decided to change the rules on the spot? Maybe you or someone else remembers the details?
Neither Cave or Marody are NHL players.
Beating dead horses.
Even with his tepid start to the year, Marody is the main driver of offence on the Condors’ scoring line – he is the puck transporter and the offensive zone possession driver.
Cave was used in offensive situations in his first few games by Woody, including PP1, but that dwindled quickly.
They are vastly different players and Cave is not nearly as skilled as Marody and I have no idea where the basis for “better hands” came from – happy to hear though?
GMB3,
Any particular reason for the dick shot?
Defensive much?
I was reading about NHLe the month Gabe first published it. How about you?
My 9ers are now the last unbeaten team left in the NFL. Wondered what that would’ve paid at the season’s start…
Thanks for the relevant comment Munny. Still haven’t figured out NHLe yet hey?
About as distant as Marody is from Cave in a footrace.
Yeah…but I was using your money:)
It’s early but I think this might be Nashville’s year.
You?
Cap is jumping by ~10MM over 21/22 and 22/23, see my earlier post
i got a great price on STL to to win the Cup too.
I have a lot of faith in Cow Media selling this narrative.
BTW, The NHL should dump suspensions and make it two rounds with Parros instead…
See if it stops liberties from being taken. 😉
(Well I’d bet it makes Tkafuck think twice)
Not in response to Bruce. Look at the comment Jimmy responded too.
Different worlds alright. Bruce was looking at NHL ice time. NHLE is nice to project from, but the guys has to translate his game. Hope to see Marody up here sometime to prove he can translate his game.
Yeah it’s bananalands to think Caves offensive game comes close to Marody’s. Different worlds.
Perfect time to start a 2 game losing streak. Don’t tell the Flames that Lucic’s suspension isn’t the reason.
In Van. Don’t tell HH.
Olofsson was the only rookie I took in my draft this year. Actually my first rookie in a few years. Was really pumped about his potential. He’s from the AHL and has an incredible shot. Unfortunately, don’t think his early success will last. He looks truly lost out there 5 x 5.
Well, I’m half happy. Ducks eke out a point. Flames do lose.
Meanwhile a very interesting Sunday night NFL battle is being waged.
I very rarely take rookies in my draft and if I do, they come from the AHL and possibly the CHL. Never Europe. The NCAA is a black hole for rookies because they have the lightest schedule. By the way, as a CHL alum Bear is much more familiar with an NHL-type schedule.
I have been iterating this for a couple of months now.
There’s a very good chance that because of this motivation, he’d sign for less than 7 years too.
But don’t tell OP.
Gio is already regressing. Playoffs showed he can’t handle speed anymore. Geritol Gio was pylonned by McKinnon repeatedly. His regression takes the first pairing down a peg.
Can see Goo Goo Doll taking the highest bidder’s money on his next contract. Not that he’s any help come playoff time anyway.