The Edmonton Oilers formula for winning games is a doppelganger for the team’s 2016-17 success: Great goaltending, McDavid’s line scores twice, team’s PP outscores the PK, PK gives up a goal every two games, rest of team hangs on for dear life.
Last night, the formula was compromised. The goaltending didn’t steal the game, the PK gave up two, and the rest of the team was unable to hang on for dear life. McDavid’s line? Champions.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.
- New Jonathan Willis: The unlikely goalie performances underpinning the Oilers’ hot start
- New Lowetide: How far away is Evan Bouchard and what role will he play with the Oilers?
- New Scott Wheeler: Analyzing Jesse Puljujarvi’s play in Finland to see what he could offer as an NHLer
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers right to wait until they’re sure before recalling Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Can Leon Draisaitl score more than 50 goals this season?
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors coaching staff continues to mold unheralded players into legit NHL prospects.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Mailbag: Fixing the forward depth, slotting the big three, a Puljujarvi trade and more
- Minnia Feng: The 2019-20 Oilers fan guide to emotions and stressful circumstances
- Jonathan Willis: How much will the Oilers have to pay to keep pending free agent Zack Kassian?
- Lowetide: Sheahan hurt, Oilers in need of a two-way centre; some candidates emerging
- Jonathan Willis: Handicapping the chase for the Calder after the first month of the 2019-20 NHL season
- Jonathan Willis: Unproductive Oilers forwards are in danger of losing their jobs — and soon
- Lowetide: Analyzing the current state of the Edmonton Oilers goaltending.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I don’t think anyone’s feeling comfortable’: Oilers’ Holland pleased but cautious amid early improvements.
- Jonathan Willis: A rare success during Edmonton’s long rebuild, why Oscar Klefbom is the model for finishing Oilers’ blue line
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers afford to pursue Taylor Hall in free agency?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
OILERS AFTER 17 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 6-11-0, 12 points; goal differential -10
- Oilers in 2016: 9-7-1, 19 points; goal differential +1
- Oilers in 2017: 6-9-2, 14 points; goal differential -13
- Oilers in 2018: 8-8-1, 17 points; goal differential -8
- Oilers in 2019: 10-5-2, 22 points; goal differential +4
Based on the comments section last night, many readers of this blog were wildly disappointed in the effort last night. Folks, this team isn’t talented enough to run with the big guns. Last night was a chance for the team, with St. Louis being tired, but there were too many Oilers who didn’t or couldn’t impact the game. There’s a talent gap. Throw in mind numbing penalties and it’s an L.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER?
- On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
- On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1)
- At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 1-1-1, 3 points after three games
Part of making the playoffs involves avoiding long losing streaks. Edmonton lost Monday and last night. Big game tomorrow night. Huge. All numbers five-on-five unless noted and via NST.
LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 4:46, going 8-6 Corsi, 5-2 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-2 HDSC. 29-97-Gagner played 6:31, going 6-8 Corsi, 5-2 shots, no goal and 5-1 HDSC.
Leon Draisaitl was fabulous, two assists (one PP) and played hard all night long. Three HDSC. Silly penalty my only issue. Connor McDavid was 1-1-2, including a power-play goal early. Some blamed 97 for the third goal, but I think he marked his man (Benning’s guy scored the goal). Three HDSC. Zack Kassian won the job on RW from Sam Gagner mid-game, I thought both played well. The difference? Gagner didn’t score on a 10-bell chance, Kassian scored on a brilliant shot. Life is sometimes unfair, but Kassian may have won his job back with that goal. Two HDSC.
LINE 2 James Neal-Nuge-Zack Kassian played 5:22, 8-7 Corsi, 3-3 shots, no goals and 0-2 HDSC. Tomas Jurco joined the line later (when Kassian bolted) and they played 3:40, 3-2 Corsi, 1-1 shots, no goals and 0-2 HDSC.
James Neal had one shot, one takeaway and he damn near scored on the PP off a deflection from a Klefbom shot. He needs to do more at five-on-five, that’s the theme for this line. Nuge had two shots, one takeaway, lost several faceoffs and fell several times. He also made some poor decisions on the PP, a rare occurrence. He needs to be better. Line needs to add a talented member. Like Eric Clapton talented. Still, RNH on pace for 43 points this season, that fits in his career range. Tomas Jurco had one good look, a penalty and one truly astounding penalty.
LINE 3 Tomas Jurco-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 6:39, 6-6 Corsi, 4-0 shots, no goals and 2-0 HDSC.
Gaetan Haas had a shot, a takeaway and worked hard. He didn’t do enough to ensure he’ll stay in the lineup when Riley Sheahan returns though. Alex Chiasson had three shots, three HDSC’s and a takeaway. Might have been his best game this season.
LINE 4 Jujhar Khaira-Colby Cave-Patrick Russell played 4:33, going Corsi 2-2 and 2-1 shots, no goals and no HDSC.
Jujhar Khaira had one shot, a takeaway and drew a penalty. Colby Cave had one shot and led a few rushes, but none resulted in success. Patrick Russell had a quiet game.
OILERS 2019-20
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 15:19 together, going 20-17 Corsi, 12-9 shots, 1-0 goals, 6-4 HDSC, 8-6 offensive versus defensive zone starts.
Darnell Nurse had a giveaway and a blocked shot, didn’t show up otherwise on the five-on-five summary. I thought he played well in coverage and it’s clear he gets the puck to Bear for outlets (which is s smart play). Ethan Bear filled the ice with deft passes, especially in the first period. Took a shot off his foot that looked painful, had two shots of his own, two takeaways and played well.
PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Kris Russell played 10:48, going 8-9 Corsi, 2-1 shots, no goals and 2-1 HDSC. 7-5 offensive-defensive zone start faceoffs.
Oscar Klefbom had a quiet night, the Oilers need more offence from him. Defensively, I thought he was effective. Kris Russell was solid, I like his aggressiveness lately in not giving up real estate. He has suppressed several sorties in the last five games just by standing up at either blue line. Solid.
PAIRING THREE Brandon Manning and Matt Benning played 7:07, going 7-6 Corsi, 4-1 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC. Pairing was 4-1 offensive-defensive zone starts via faceoffs.
Brandon Manning hit like a truck, had three giveaways and was caught out of position several times. He’s playing too much. Matt Benning was high event, three shots and two giveaways. If Joel Persson can’t play second pair, I’d try Benning with Klefbom.
GOALIE Mike Smith was off his previous brilliance and was not the team’s best penalty killer on the night. He was rock solid in quiet times at five-on-five (16 of 17 stopped, .941) but overall (stopped 20 of 23, .870) will get you a loss on most nights. In the heart of the game at five-on-five (45:26), Edmonton won the shot clock 30-17. The PK, solid for much of the season, couldn’t get it done on this night.
A FEW NOTES
Oilers five-on-five shots against rate per 60 (28.28) is fabulous, good for No. 4 in the NHL. Shots for suffers though, currently 27.26 (No. 28) overall.
Edmonton’s five-on-five goal share (50.88) is solid, No. 14 in the entire NHL. There are a lot of sky is falling people talking Oilers today, and we have agreed the playoffs are not guaranteed. That said, even with an extreme lack of depth among the forwards, this team is competitive. If Holland can find two more actual NHL forwards, games like last night should result in points more often. I don’t think he finds them this season. Stay the course.
The comments section went sideways last night while I was picking my daughter up from work. Currently, no one is in the ‘monitor’ slot on this blog. Fair warning: More nights like last night and that will change.
Two nights ago Nurse was a target (terrible OT play) and last night it was Nuge (he wasn’t good all game, but especially late with the game on the line). That said, these are good NHL players, who have been part of this team’s success. They are both in their 20’s. Single events can have massive impact on a single game, while also being single events. I know you’re mad at Nuge, hell he’s probably mad at himself. I encourage you to spend some time with the head parts that suss out math and ask this question: Will a career 11.5 percent shooter stay at 2.4 percent for the rest of this season? By the way, Nuge is above 50 percent in the faceoff circle for the first time in his career. Oh, and the officiating has been terrible, but that isn’t going to change.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun morning on the Lowdown, beginning at 10 on TSN1260. Marshall Ferguson (Ti-Cats pbp) from TSN 1150 will talk CFL All-Stars, the western and eastern semis and the coaching carousel. Scott Wheeler from The Athletic will discuss his excellent article breaking down Jesse Puljujarvi’s work in the Sm-Liiga. Frank Seravalli from TSN will also chime in on the Oilers and MacT’s brilliant piece from this morning. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
You would, ya dink.
Great piece. I’m glad I was right to be believing my rather squinty eye test.
TY
Woodguy v2.0,
I oppose this option and stand firmly on the side of petty insults and polemics.
The extrapolation is that, notwithstanding being a bit quicker perhaps, he has not been able to produce at the NHL level and has been inferior at the same age at the AHL level so, to me, there is no reason to use the 49th contract on a player that isn’t likely to produce more at the NHL than an internal option.
Where did you get that from?
He’s never looked slow to me.
That would be great. I’ve wanted a kid line for a while.
Nygard-Haas-Yammamoto could be a kinda “kid line”
More of a “water bugs on amphetamines” line, but close enough.
Over the last few years we have had two bottom 6 “are you f&cking kidding me” lines, so yeah Id take that.
Good piece LT.
I knew they were still above water but hadn’t broken it down.
We’re gonna run a kid line come January that’s going to PDO pony us to the playoffs.
Have a couple shots in your morning coffee Father?
You’re feisty this am.
The “effective second line” is when Drai and McDavid are double shifted right?
I kid, I’ll go read the article now.
Thats more like it.
Unless something drastically changes, Im guessing the amount of games the Oilers win with McDavid and Drai being held off the scoreboard will be counted on 1 hand this year.
Oh, it won’t stop my general assholishness.
Also,
You’re a dink.
New for The Athletic: Oilers are closer to having an effective second line than a year ago, but few have noticed
https://theathletic.com/1357181/2019/11/08/lowetide-oilers-are-closer-to-having-an-effective-second-line-than-a-year-ago-but-few-have-noticed/
But I sometimes like when Woodguy hasnt had a snickers.
Munny,
Wilde,
Perhaps it’s best to proceed with just dismantling the argument without the insult?
Failing that I suggest this format:
“You are wrong about X and here is why
Also,
Yo Momma”
Or similar.
This way your insult will not be confused with an Ad-hom attack .
Bruce with the high fly ball!!!
Skating is the #1 reason he hasn’t been successful at the NHL level.
Not a bad point. His game hasn’t matured much defensively at this point. I wonder if part of that is the pressure to create offence knowing there is little to no secondary scoring behind him. Stress—->fatigue——> drop in cognitive ability.
Im fully on board with splitting up Drai and McDavid for a bit. It’s done them some good in the past, and it might help RNH get of the schnide
Wait, I thought the Oilers had the toughest schedule for the rest of the year and regression was imminent because of it?
First time poster, long time lurker, not a troll.
That needed to be said as hallowed ground is about to be tread upon. Just want to know if I am the only one thinking this might be happening.
From the McDavid thread and the apparent lack of urgency mentality, it got me thinking about Connor’s demeanor overall. It is clear that Tippet often leans on Draisaitl in more situations (TOI, PK). But this has been generational McD’s team for four years and this year, to this point, there is a case to made for the crown not just to be shared but perhaps temporarily placed on Driasaitl’s head. I get the small sample argument but in this conversation, at this point in time Draisaitl is getting it done better at both ends, at least in the coach’s eyes and many of us if we are honest.
If I am Connor this is very humbling. He is supposed to be 4 million better, give or take. IMO there must be some soul searching going on that is creeping into his game. It is human nature is it not?
Is McD the best in the NHL? Is he the best on the team? Skater yah, complete player? MVP? Our heads can definitely get in the way of production. We have a discussion where there never was one before…
Love McDavid don’t get me wrong, most exciting guy to watch and he’s on my short list of the best ever. Just feel for what must be going through his head right now. Tough being number one when it is challenged by a team mate and friend. Like I said hallowed ground.
Believe I covered that:
…
Also, it is legitimately the most common derailment that occurs here per my estimation, besides more explicit (and often hypocritical) calls for civility. I don’t mind the heat.
Wilde,
Your example was correct. But it’s so close to “x is wrong because you’re stupid” that I can see it being misunderstood, especially in the context of people reading casually on the internet.
However, you’ve also presented yourself as something akin to a grammar cop… if you feel the need, then have at’er, but generally it isn’t appreciated.
Maybe Jamie is finally going down.
Can you summarise or rephrase my initial argument?
The value in claiming petan over calling up benson is that it leaves benson in the AHL. That means something. If ken wanted to abandon development he would. He will wait. Somethings us Oiler fans are not good at.
If you would have had a post in mid September about us losing larsson to injury in game one and yet being near the top of the west 16 games later nobody would have believed it. Its been an exciting entertaining and enjoyable start to the season. Sure our roster has some flaws. We need secondary scoring. But goodness we are without out (arguably) our most important dman and haven’t exploded into a fiery wreck
I feel bad for nuge especially with the carousel of players on and off his line. It must frustrate him too. Why not drai nuge and neal together. Mcdavid and kassian and find a player for 1LW. I dunno. Sometimes it seems a line looks decent but the coach tears it down after some poor play. Its hard to gauge who works and who doesn’t. I certainly dont claim to know more than anyone else. Many of you posters seem quite knowledgeable about this.
Its been a lot of fun to cheer for a team thats coming from behind to tie the game and winning in overtime. Lets not get too sour about the areas this team still has to grow. Its likely the current crop are exceeding everyone here’s expectations.
GO OULERS!!!
The question was, what does he provides that Benson doesn’t?
Petan is quicker.
He’s considerably quicker than Benson.
CallighenMan,
+100
methinks you failed math in school
ATTENTION PLEASE.
If I were to call you a stupid prick for no reason, then that is an insult. However, if I’m in debate with you and then I attack you and not your argument, then that is a classic ad hominem.
What you are mistaking this for is the ad hominem fallacy. An appeal to hypocrisy.
Semantics. Learn them.
Of course you should ALWAYS use points percentage but you have argued against it exhaustively.
Now that you think it fits your narrative, here you are.
Current points percentage:
VCR – .656
EDM – .647
ARZ – .625
VGK – .618
CAL – .579
VCR continues to lead the Pacific by a narrow margin.
Oilers get NJ on the second of a back to back tomorrow while VCR flies to Winnipeg to play the Jets on a Canucks back to back.
Calgary gets a rested Blues team on Saturday night while Oilers head to Anaheim on Sunday.
Arizona gets the Wild on Saturday.
Vegas plays Washington on Saturday and Detroit on Sunday.
I would think the schedule favours the Oilers.
Wait, so tonight point percentage isn’t what we should be using?
So the Canucks actually have been all this time, and still are, below the Oilers, and now the flames.
Single moments catch the attention like a shiny bauble.
Weird game…a Corsi fest.
Vancouver outshot the Hawks 38-37 but Crawford was very good.
Vancouver took 6 sloppy penalties.
Chicago scored two empty net goals as the Canucks tried to tie it up.
Vancouver still has a game in hand on Edmonton, Vegas and two on Calgary.
It appears the Flames will win tonight and be tied with the Oilers for top spot in the Pacific.
Canucks lose to a bottom feeding team that had a goal differential of -11 going in……. what could it mean?
Well he did really like that gif of Jenneke. You might be onto something there.
That’s a lot of empty net goals
Shocker. The Flames with 5 PPs tonight. Wonder how menu the Oil get tomorrow?
MACKINNON THRU 2 PERIODS
1G 3A 4 PTS 10 SHOTS
LUCIC THRU 16 GAMES
0G 3A 3 PTS 18 SHOTS
I would love our team to be able to score 6 goals in a period
Say hi to my Nan!
GMs sit with scouts all winter getting updates on the upcoming draft. When a GM moves teams,Those old scouting teams often have a greater effect than the new scouting teams.
Thus Boston scouts may have had more influence on Chiarelli than Edmonton’s. Depends just how much input he chooses to express on the picks. Griffin we believe was spur of the moment, Edmonton scouts get full credit there.
I also believe Holland was influenced by Detroit scout who were focused on defencemen. Oilers scouts, more aware of what they had coming up, were focused on forwards.
From what I’ve seen (not a ton) and accounts, he’s an average skater.
Either way, it hasn’t led to much at the NHL level and his AHL production is inferior to that of Benson.
I don’t see anything to project him as a more material positive contributor than Tyler Benson now or in the future and I’d prefer to give Benson a few at bat unless the Leafs are willing to take a contract back (which wouldn’t make any sense for them).
ATTENTION PLEASE.
Every single one of you that has used the term ‘ad hominem’ here in the last few months (at least) needs to immediately set out to learn what it means
In a sequence like this:
Person 1: I think x.
Person 2: You’re stupid for thinking x, x is wrong because of y.
PERSON TWO HAS NOT COMMITTED AN AD HOMINEM.
That is just an insult. An insult is not automatically an ad hom, although many ad homs are insults.
You can take issues with insults. Insults can be bad, stupid, wrong, gratuitous and counter-productive.
But if you’re setting out to disprove an argument and you use the fact that your opponent has insulted you (or that you perceive that they have) that is actually more likely (and always closer) to having committed an ad hom than the person who hurled the insult.
I will be the shitty latin phrase police if I have to be. I have the soul for it. It doesn’t have to be this way, however.
Taylor Hall, loses puck at defensive zone trying a cute play and phlegm’s score to tie game. Frustrating to see.
Oilers already have a 29 year old more talented Nic Petan.
Samwise Gangee
Yes Petan is that slow.
I’d rather give Benson the shot when he’s ready.
And 49 contracts is a thing—can’t pick someone off waivers without dumping someone else.
Toews is trending hard to win this “battle”.
Its not THE worst, but yeah, its not good