The Edmonton Oilers reminded us Saturday afternoon: This is a building team, not a Stanley Cup contender. It’s an important reminder, because ‘trade Puljujarvi for a checking center’ arguments are out of time with this season. This team’s best players may will the rest of the group into the postseason, but there are many miles to go.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ college procurement could increase under Ken Holland
- Jonathan Willis: A shift-by-shift analysis of Caleb Jones in his Oilers season debut
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Sometimes it’s just unstoppable’: How McDavid and the Oilers’ power play dominated the Avalanche
- Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones and the crisis that’s looming in the Oilers’ middle distance
- Jonathan Willis: Basically, yes, the Oilers should keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ‘forever’
- Lowetide: Why the recall of NHL-ready Caleb Jones should benefit the Oilers in the long run
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Several drivers make the grade but Edmonton’s bus still has a few passengers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: From 4 to 97, Oilers both new and old share the stories behind their jersey numbers
- Jonathan Willis: Could a fall trade improve the fortunes of your NHL team in 2019-20?
- Lowetide: Analyzing Dave Tippett’s defensive usage and what the Oilers will do when Adam Larsson returns
- Lowetide: What’s going on with the Bakersfield Condors?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shines, mad props for Leon Draisaitl and more to like as the Oilers beat the Devils
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What inexperienced defencemen like the Oilers’ Joel Persson must do to gain their coach’s confidence
- Lowetide: Oilers are closer to having an effective second line than a year ago, but few have noticed
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The beauty of a good night’s sleep can be elusive for many NHL players
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers were wise to gamble on Tomas Jurco, even though it didn’t pan out
- Jonathan Willis: The unlikely goalie performances underpinning the Oilers’ hot start
- Lowetide: How far away is Evan Bouchard and what role will he play with the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers right to wait until they’re sure before recalling Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Can Leon Draisaitl score more than 50 goals this season?
OILERS AFTER 22 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 7-14-1, 15 points; goal differential -12
- Oilers in 2016: 12-8-2, 26 points; goal differential +10
- Oilers in 2017: 8-12-2, 18 points; goal differential -14
- Oilers in 2018: 10-10-2, 22 points; goal differential -9
- Oilers in 2019: 13-6-3, 29 points; goal differential +12
This year’s team is the best of the bunch in total points and goal differential, but lack of depth and balance will eventually end this team’s season. The question now, and we have 60 games to track it, surrounds Edmonton’s chances at getting to the dance, the second season.
OILERS IN NOVEMBER
- Oilers in November 2015: 3-4-1, seven points; goal differential -1
- Oilers in November 2016: 2-5-1, five points; goal differential -9
- Oilers in November 2017: 4-3-1, nine points; goal differential +6
- Oilers in November 2018: 3-5-0, six points; goal differential -4
- Oilers in November 2019: 4-2-2, 10 points; goal differential +7
The 2017 team is the match for November, and that’s reminder about what can go wrong even in a season that begins well. I know fans were disappointed after the third period and overtime, but it’s important to get that Bettman point.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
- On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
- On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 4-2-2, 10 points after eight games
Oilers are tracking to finish a little ahead of my prediction at the beginning of the month, the road trip from hell lies ahead. I think the LAK game this week and the Arizona game next week will be keys. I think four points on the trip is completely reasonable as an expectation.
LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 15:19, going 15-14 Corsi, 10-7 shots, 1-3 goals and 5-2 HDSC. All numbers five-on-five via NST unless noted.
Leon Draisaitl scored, had two shots and a HDSC. Leon’s chem with 97 was on display on the goal, they are magic. Won eight of 11, a little reckless on the passing and coverage. Connor McDavid had two assists (plus a third on the PP), four shots, two HDSC, two takeaways. Just one of seven in faceoffs. Zack Kassian took a tumble, but had two shots and two HDSC.
LINE 2 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 11:51, going 7-8 Corsi, 1-0 goals and 4-2 HDSC.
Jujhar Khaira had a brilliant game, two goals, five shots, two HDSC, one takeaway and physical. What a game! Riley Sheahan is getting closer to scoring a goal, suspect a national holiday will be declared when it happens. Three shots, 2 HDSC, won nine of 15 in the dot. Patrick Russell rung iron (again!) and played well on an effective line.
LINE 3 James Neal-Nuge-Josh Archibald played 9:40 and got caved, going 3-13 Corsi, 1-7 shots, no goals and 0-2 HDSC.
James Neal drew a penalty but is in the ‘golden slumbers’ portion of his seasons. Snipers. They run hot and cold. Nuge was physical (he uses his stick for cross checks and general agitation more than ever) but didn’t impact the game at evens. Josh Archibald is a sublime skater but at five-on-five gets shockingly little done. Oilers should put Neal on RW and Khaira on the left side.
LINE 4 Markus Granlund-Gaetan Haas-Sam Gagner played just 4:28, going 8-6 Corsi, 5-4 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-2 HDSC. Haas not getting the puck out was the big play on the first goal against.
Markus Granlund had a takeaway and isn’t among the team’s PKers. Hanging by a thread. Haas made the clearance error, had two shots and a HDSC. I like him but don’t really know if he’s going to make it. Sam Gagner had a shot and drew a penalty, looked damned painful.
OILERS 2019-20
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 15:46, going 15-13 Corsi, 9-11 shots, 2-3 goals and 7-2 HDSC. Were 4-6 offensive-defensive faceoffs.
Darnell Nurse didn’t stop the pass into the slot on the first goal, did something similar (although there was same bad luck as the crosstown pass was tipped) on the third goal, and was quite poor on coverage and then beaten clean by Benn on the winner. Ethan Bear is clearly being scouted and now targeted. Several times in the game Dallas overloaded his side on entry and then won a battle for the puck with the rookie. On the second goal Benn easily sealed off Bear, he wasn’t strong enough on the third goal (giving up possession too easily). If you ever wonder why coaches value Adam Larsson player-types, yesterday’s game (and Bear’s defensive shortcomings) are a reason. Those wall battles are fierce. Never fear, the young man will get there. Bear scored a lovely power-play goal. Rookies are rookies, ladies and men. Bear is a good one but growing pains are part of the process. Stay with him, he’s bona fide. Pairing played 10:57 against Seguin (1-1 goals) and 10:22 against Benn (2-2 goals). That’s a hard match.
PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Caleb Jones played 13:07, going 19-8 Corsi, 11-5 shots, no goals, 2-2 HDSC, 5-4 offensive-defensive faceoffs.
Oscar Klefbom had an assist, three shots and a takeaway in an efficient game for Edmonton’s best defenseman. He is taking on a mentor role under coach Tippett and doing damn well. Caleb Jones had a shot on goal, one giveaway but otherwise moved the puck well. I haven’t noticed awkward off-side moments so far. Pairing played less than two minutes against Benn and Seguin.
THIRD PAIRING Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 11:10, going 9-9 Corsi, 4-7 shots, no goals, 1-3 HDSC and 5-3 offensive-defensive faceoffs.
Kris Russell had one shot, a takeaway and three blocked shots. Also led defensemen with 2:07 on the PK. He can defend. Matt Benning didn’t get the puck out early on the sequence that led to the first goal against, had a shot on goal in what was (for him) a generally quiet night.
GOALIE Mikko Koskinen stopped 31 of 36, .861. In my opinion he’s clearly Edmonton’s best goalie but he didn’t have a good game. The fourth goal was a good shot from a known sniper but Koskinen makes that save when he’s on. In overtime, Benn’s move fooled Nurse but Koskinen’s position was compromised and he couldn’t recover. He needed to make that save and for the first portion of this season he’s done just that thing.
CONDORS 2019-20
A few quick notes: Stuart Skinner is finding his way. In his most recent six games, he has stopped 164 of 178, .921. Tyler Benson didn’t score this weekend but I think he has now reached a point where he is as likely as Kailer Yamamoto to be the prospect recall around Christmas. Evan Bouchard has moved up the depth chart and we’ll see how he shines, suspect the organization’s next defensive recall is William Lagesson.
Cool story. I dunno about the height though. Everywhere I looked says 6’5″, 220. Not that it matters.
https://www.nhl.com/player/mike-smith-8469608
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=50142
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/10173/mike-smith
https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/3231/
Hmm, that’s strange.
We ran into him at an outdoor rink a few years ago. He was there skating with his son.
We started chatting and my daughter came over and asked him how tall he was. I recall him saying 6’2″.
Edit: A google search reveals an official NHL measurement of 191cm (6’2.5″). Then there are scattered news articles saying he is 6’3″, 6’4″ and one recent one in the Edmonton Journal saying he is 6’5″.
OriginalPouzar,
He hasn’t been in a legit trade rumour since mid-summer, and that was all about the Tkachuk signing.
Tkachuk has re-signed.
If the Flames would’ve given him away in the summer he would be gone, but they waited too long and the few teams that could take the contract wanted getting paid.
He’s off their books regardless at season’s end so there’s no pressure to trade him, unless they’re looking for roster change in which case he would be included in the deal.
There haven’t been much in the way of trade rumours coming out of Cowtown despite their losing streak. Maybe that changes this week. But that would be as a buyer not as a seller.
As a seller it’s far too early.
The list of teams Ryan posted was correct.
The flames would love to get rid of Frolik simply so they have the $4M plus. Take away his struggles this season, he had ice value in the off-season but the flames would have given him away from free just to rid themselves of the contract.
They would, of course, now, also dispose of him for free if someone would take him.
Issue with the Oilers is we would have to give back equal cap and that doesn’t work for the flames unless they are getting a value asset back.
Thanks Dadbot. #DoubleAgentGoalie
Wonder who else we can trade to Nucks and Ducks?
And he shoots RIGHT!!!
I approve of this! GO GET HIM HOLLAND!!!
Edit: feels kinda lonely being the first post on the second page… HELLO OUT THERE!!!
Smith is far from technically superior. He’s a wacky waving inflatable arm flailing tube man in net. Good athlete though.
I think you’re right but opinions vary wildly on Puljujarvi. It will be interesting to see what Holland gets when (if) he makes a move.
Hard to argue that. A second round pick has just a 25% chance of having a 200 game NHL career, Puljujarvi has a much higher chance of exceeding that plateau.
This list of teams is correct. There was talk about Frolik above but it’s much too early for the Flems to consider doing that, if at all, Might even be early for the Devs and the Jackets right now. Give it a good month though.
Jenner is a reasonable target. Not sure we have what would make the Jackets happy, assuming they even want to trade him, considering there’s a year to run. Which might also drive up the acquisition cost.
Pageau would be better though… RHS and very nice feet. Peca.
Smith is 6’5″.
For players, we’re shopping the following aisles: Senators, Wild, Kings, Devils, Jackets, and Wings.
I don’t love the idea of a rental.
Wonder what a Koivu rental would cost? He has a NMC though. He also has a $5.5 m cap hit.
Boon Jenner? Struggling this season…Two more years at 3.75m.
If you look around, there’s not much out there for Pageau alternatives. No wonder GM’s have a proclivity for overpaying… a lot of teams have young high draft picks in these slots that they’re not trading or expensive declining vets with term on their contract like Nielsen or Zajac.
It’s too bad that Chiarelli traded away Strome.
He could have been a good 3C for us.
Long term we don’t have anything in the pipeline either. Only McLeod at C.
Probably best time to try and fill that hole is next year at the draft when good players are available for picks.
Nor am I, but these are my observations.
6’2″ is not that big for a GK these days. Koskinen is 6’7″.
They’re both very large men. I’m not sure Smith is technically superior. I’m not a goalie coach though.
Yes, I realize his stats are good so far, but the sample is really small, especially for GK. It’s a streaky position and it cuts both ways. I think those stats should be hidden until a GK has played 40 games. What do they look like when we include his last 30 starts from last season? Maybe unfair, but more fair than looking at only 10 starts, IMO.
I’m only looking at their technicals. Smith is superior from a technical perspective. Koskinen is huge which helps him compensate, but the technically superior keeper should win the day.
Koskinen is decent though. Not a terrible GK at all.
That flames troll Cameron has been awfully quiet this year.
Has anybody else noticed that Neal has more goals than Gaudreau and Monahan put together, 25% of the way through the season?
If not for 3 miracle comebacks the 10-10-2 flames would be 7-13 and amongst the bottom 3 teams in the league …
Koskinen is 7-1-2 with the 7th best GAA and 8th best SV% in the NHL. Smith is shy on all fronts (still good). What are you hoping for from Koskinen?
Don’t feed the troll! If everyone ignores him he may crawl back in the black hole from whence he came.
For sure, but I like that they’re the one that could actually be suffering from diminishing marginal utility. Allows them to spread the age grouping a little too.
Sure that’s fair
I hate saying this though, if I’m Ottawa (or any other team) an argument could be made that a 2nd round pick has more value than JP
Could be argued that Oil have an edge offering Pujo over a 2nd though.
Leavins reported today that Mazura has committed to Providence for the 20-21 season. He had 4 points in his school’s season opener.
Expects Larsson back WED/THU, and Persson to be sent to Bako.
The rest is quality too:
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/after-a-nursery-rhyme-loss-to-the-dallas-stars-what-lessons-do-the-edmonton-oilers-take-away-9-things
Matheson had a tweet on Pageau this morning…
Jim Matheson @NHLbyMatty · 11h11 hours ago
For now, the search for No. 3 offensive C is still ongoing for Ken Holland too. And yes, like everybody else in the league, they’re wondering about Ottawa’s speedy UFA J.G. Pageau and what it would take to get him.
Damn, if you were half as brilliant as you believe yourself to be your goal posts wouldn’t be needing to find a new home every 3 games.
Please Miss Cleo do share with us what happens next.
Oil2Oilers,
Picks are easy to spend though, and they’ll come in handy next summer when teams are trying to shed salary (again)
Ottawa could turn those picks into NHL players at the draft
The Ottawa Senators have two 1st round picks and three 2nd round picks in the 2020 draft.
They also have one 1st round pick and three 2nd round picks in 2021.
They need more 2nd round picks like Edmonton needs LHD prospects.
I don’t know what’s going to happen next but I do know what’s already happened and what’s currently real.
10 days ago I was given a bunch of date about schedule strength and team metrics that told me Vegas was going to be leading the division now. This weekend I was given similar data and metrics telling me that its going to be Arizona.
So, at the end of the day, I don’t really care what you think is going to happen base off those metrics.
I just found is “interesting” that flames fans were so quick to point out the big minus for Neal on the season (which was really only -4 by the metric I care about) and then their two primary players (not a secondary player like Neal) go -5 (by both the shit and the good metric) in one night.
I remember phlegm fans saying johnny was a better team player then Connor. LMAO yeah right where are they now.
A Staal trade seems impossible. He has one of the best contracts on the team, has an NTC, which if it was set prior to the season, almost certainly has the Oil on it. And with another year to run would be more expensive to acquire. (And trust me I want this guy, I just don’t see it).
Pageau is more likely to be available with the Sens investing in prospects to stay cheap.
But we would need to send Gagner back… would they accept that part of the deal, even with salary retained?
COL wouldn’t need to do so.
But they can’t offer a Puljujarvi, and probably won’t want to cough up a 1st.
GMs can be notoriously sticky on price in their first couple of passes through the rolodex. Might be a while before we see a trade consummated.
Thanks…… I think……
Understand ALL the context.
1) Neal still has a shooting percentage of 22.2%…double his career average of 11.9%
Neal does not play against top competition.
2) Horvat plays against top competition. His shooting percentage this season is 9.8% while his career average is is 12.2%…better than Neal’s.
Horvat has 61 shots on goal…Neal has 54.
What do you think happens next?
lol
Neal has been getting the chances he’s always been streaky, I could see him getting 5 goals in the next 10 game stretch.
OP you’re really the OG on here. If I had to go to a war of words, I’d bring you.
– I feel like the little dog on bugs bunny and friends
“Get him spike! Yeah- get him!”
1) Understand the context of the post
2) What do we know about +/- and empty net goals?
James Neal is -4 at 5 on 5.
Gaudreau and Monohan were each -5 at 5 on 5, just tonight.
The Oilers are plus 2 at 5 on 5.
——————-
Bo Horvat, the captain, is -8 on a team that is plus 10.
Almost 25 minutes for Gio tonight.
James Neal is -11 on a team that has a +10 goal differential.
That’s really bad.
I remember seeing all these tweets last week from flames fans about James Neal being like -10 in an 8 game stretch or something – of course, 5 of those minuses were empty net goals and one was a SH goal.
Well tonight, by Gaudrea and Monohan were -5 and there were no empty net goals….
I love the negativity on the make beleafs. TSN is more palpable now
I agree about Frolik, he’d be an interesting “budget” pick up
I’m sure the Flames wouldn’t want any cap back, but in this league I’m not sure that’s a realistic stance. Nobody’s taking on $4.3 with 60 ish games left
Maybe Russell with a little retained…?…Manning…?..we don’t have a lot of room ourselves
Did Gio play today..?…do we have a medical update on him..?
Platinum sombrero for Monahan and Johnny Hockey.
Remember when the Flames thought they had the best D in the league. I’m going to thoroughly enjoy in no particular order Burke, Button, Cassie and Hrudey all turn on their beloved Flames.
If the playoffs are to start today, my two most hated teams would be out.
They lost 2 d-men tonight. But your are correct. i don’t see them revisiting Russell
So glad Talbot went south it’s going to get real messy if they lose a couple more games.
Renting Frolik would be super cheap but there is no cap space for that and the flames wouldn’t be wanting to take cap back – don’t see them interested in Russell.
5-0 Vegerville with 3 minutes to go.
Yikes….
Yes, and in a previous post, I mentioned McLeod as the potential 3C of the future. The issue is we could be 4 years (including this one) away from that, if ever.
Right now he’s not even a full time center in the AHL, playing both the wing and center – quite a bit of flip flopping.
He’s not an NHL option this year and can’t imagine he will (or he should) be to start next year – maybe a cup of coffee.
Realistically I see his timeline as 2021/22 for an every day NHL player but likely a year further for the 3C.
Is there not a Kerfoot for D potential trade in the off-season – stop gap for McLeod.
REAVES is much bigger and better player than lucic. Can’t see them going at it.
Hold on to your pysankas… 3-0 Vegreville now.