It’s been a long time between drinks of water for the Edmonton Oilers in the NHL draft’s fifth round. Miro Satan, Jason Chimera, Walt Poddubny, Shaun Van Allen, and now Ethan Bear. It’s important to note drafting success and for the organization to value it heavily. Those amateur scouts are some of the most important people in an organization. Their success drives team success. Ethan Bear is an important player for the Oilers. Vital that the team cashes another fifth rounder in a more timely fashion. That gap between Bear and Jason Chimera? 18 years.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Jonathan Willis: A list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Woodcroft on Benson’s ‘gift,’ the next step for Bouchard and acting like a proud parent watching the Oilers
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Joel Persson’s demotion highlights difficult adjustment for Oilers’ ‘European showtime’ trio
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Evaluating the Oilers’ readiness for the 2021 Seattle expansion draft
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
- Lowetide: Oilers’ college procurement could increase under Ken Holland
- Jonathan Willis: A shift-by-shift analysis of Caleb Jones in his Oilers season debut
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Sometimes it’s just unstoppable’: How McDavid and the Oilers’ power play dominated the Avalanche
- Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones and the crisis that’s looming in the Oilers’ middle distance
- Jonathan Willis: Basically, yes, the Oilers should keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ‘forever’
- Lowetide: Why the recall of NHL-ready Caleb Jones should benefit the Oilers in the long run
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Several drivers make the grade but Edmonton’s bus still has a few passengers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: From 4 to 97, Oilers both new and old share the stories behind their jersey numbers
- Jonathan Willis: Could a fall trade improve the fortunes of your NHL team in 2019-20?
- Lowetide: Analyzing Dave Tippett’s defensive usage and what the Oilers will do when Adam Larsson returns
- Lowetide: What’s going on with the Bakersfield Condors?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shines, mad props for Leon Draisaitl and more to like as the Oilers beat the Devils
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What inexperienced defencemen like the Oilers’ Joel Persson must do to gain their coach’s confidence
- Lowetide: Oilers are closer to having an effective second line than a year ago, but few have noticed
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The beauty of a good night’s sleep can be elusive for many NHL players
OILERS AFTER 24 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 8-14-2, 18 points; goal differential -13
- Oilers in 2016: 12-10-2, 26 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in 2017: 9-13-2, 20 points; goal differential -14
- Oilers in 2018: 11-11-2, 24 points; goal differential -11
- Oilers in 2019: 14-6-3, 31 points; goal differential +15
The 2016 team went on a heater that saw them close 35-16-7 to finish 47-26-9, 103 points. I don’t think that’s reasonable, but the club’s impressive start means banked points that could be key in April when the season winds down to a precious few games.
OILERS IN NOVEMBER
- Oilers in November 2015: 3-6-1, seven points; goal differential -5
- Oilers in November 2016: 3-6-1, seven points; goal differential -8
- Oilers in November 2017: 4-5-1, nine points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in November 2018: 4-6-0, eight points; goal differential -6
- Oilers in November 2019: 5-2-2, 12 points, goal differential +10
Injuries, goalie wobble, weird trades, oh the November rain Oilers fans have seen. And this year? 21 days into a 30-day month and the formula is holding steady.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER?
- On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
- On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
- On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 5-2-2, 12 points in 9 games
This Oilers team outperformed my October projection and looks to be poised to do the same thing in November. Dave Tippett’s keys to the highway seem simple enough. Run 97-29 through the wee wee hours (“sun’s just a red ball rising over them refinery towers”), find some clean air for Nuge and then ramrod the bottom six ragged on the penalty kill. It’s a Tenth Avenue Freeze out with Nurse-Bear and Klefbom-Jones, and a surprisingly delightful (o, o, o, I’m on fire) third pair. Solid goalie duo form the tight rhythm section on the backstreets and you’re born to run.
I hope you can make it out to the event, it’ll be a cool way to watch the game and we’ll have some surprises plus the Q&A. That segment was terrific last time we got together, your input was welcome and several story ideas (like prospect updates on Sundays) grew out of the conversations. I promise you’ll have a good time.
OILERS 2019-20
Ethan Bear has had an impact on this team. NST tells us Bear and Nurse have played 352 minutes at five-on-five this season, winning the shot differential (52.3 percent). They are 19-24 in goals together but have taken on the elites (Puck IQ has both men over 150 minutes at five-on-five, the top totals) and are delivering 47 percent possession and 8-4 goal differential. Both men get credit, but Bear, as a rookie, has delivered in an area of weakness and right on time. Impressive.
CONDORS
The Bakersfield Condors play Stockton this morning at 11 our time. The Condors have yet to take flight and the prospect forwards are running in place but there’s plenty of blacktop.
You know, one of my favourite things is to watch prospects find their way. For instance, Ethan Bear’s emergence this season is, for me, a wonderful result and payment for all the Pouliot’s and Rita’s and Hajt’s and Wajt’s.
The trick is, and I mean this, to cheer like mad but understand these kids can get derailed by so very many things. Here. Pick a year. 1995? Okay. Here are the scoring numbers for Edmonton’s 1995-96 AHL team.
Ryan Smyth was the big star, he was a high pick and delivered in the AHL from opening night (he was 19 here). Dean McAmmond and Mats Lindgren were both first rounders who had careers, McAmmond played forever. Rem Murray had no draft pedigree, Jason Bonsignore was all draft pedigree. Only one of them would have an NHL career. Bottom line: No matter how good you are with AHL numbers or watching games, no matter how well you can break down the video, some will surprise and some will disappoint. So, if you say “Tyler Benson doesn’t look good now, he might be stalling” just stop. It doesn’t work like that. We were fading Ethan Bear last year, now look at him. We don’t know who is going to hit the gym this summer and we don’t know who is going to catch a rut in a game in March. This prospect thing is not an exact science.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A loaded show this morning, TSN1260 beginning at 10. The Mayor John Hoven will join us in hour one and Frank Seravalli will pop in during hour two, plus we are working on another guest surrounding the Babcock firing. Wild times. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Pescador,
A Oiler fan of longer duration than you probably.
Look at the substance of the comments.
Who can deny that Holland is idle and the team is grossly imperfect.
With no sign of trying to improve it.
BONE207,
Ad hominen attacks
Look at the substance of the comment
Holland has done nothing except get rid of Lucic
Keeping Sekera would have been more useful, look at Dallas
The team has no quality forwards but for 4 players. And yet he has done nothing to fix it
And Smith is done. Why is he not on waivers?
Man you put a lot of eeffort into a post that nobody will read.
I sometimes glance over your dogshit just to laugh at what
a fucking kook you are
Of course not,
Its your burner account
verdadisanass2.0,
Ever thought of taking up a hobby…like bomb making for example?
Does Ken Holland even watch this team?
His abject incompetence is now burying this team.
The team has maybe 4 decent forwards and nothing else.
And a defense with truly deficient players such as Nurse, Larsson and Russell.
Playing Smith is insane. He never could stop pucks with any consistently. Goaltending is about stopping the shots that should be stopped. A standard Smith cannot reach.
Yet Holland does nothing , absolutely nothing.
Losing the next 3 games will pretty much end the season’s hopes for respectability.
The window to trade with Toronto now probably over.
At Dubas has the fortitude to fire Babcock, and Leafs are instantly turned around.
Earn your money Holland.
Losing to the Kings is a disgrace and you need to fess up to that.
Or do you care?
Nah, he wasn’t quite this bad.
0.8 P/60 so far. He was better than that (still bad, mind you) even without McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge last year.
This is how Chiasson played for most of last season.
Leon knows it too:
“If your supposedly best players play the way I did,” said Leon Draisaitl after a 5-1 loss to the last place Los Angeles Kings, “you’re not gonna go very far.”
This has never happened to me btw.
So, what the heck happened to Chiasson this year? It’s like he magically forgot how he was playing last season.
To whom are you referring?
Hate when they piss away games the first twenty…and then take dumb penalties whenever there’s some positive momentum. Makes for a boring game. A couple of positionsspel blunders on D and Smith having a bleedy night and that’s it.
Nygård needs to score on at least one of his primo chances. It’s kind of his mo though, creating a lot more than he’s converting. On the positive side it’s a good sign he’s getting more involved offensively, looked more like his SHL self than the shy NHL version we’ve seen thus far. Hopefully he can keep that part going and sharpen up the finish going forward.
Oh well let’s make sure the house doesn’t win in Vegreville and all is forgiven.
QFT
Just to clarify.
THIS IS NOT WHO.
Dreamy bombs out another 26 minutes tonight.
Drai -3 and point-less. I would not want to be the next team he faces.
That was the biggest story IMO too. Smith didn’t have it (it happens) and we were on our heels for the rest of the game. Couldn’t busta rhyme, maintain sustain, catch a break, or get a call.
Stick a fork in it. Done like dinner.
Also, there’s no middle ground with Smith; either he’s on or he’s completely lost.
Mike Smith wasn’t sharp. 3-0 first. Game over
Things I noticed:
Chiasson is not an improvement on any other player not playing.
Jones is not an NHL player yet.
Larsson is probably a game or two away from shaking the cobwebs off.
Drai and McD need to put in more effort on the defensive side. Cheating the play way too often.
Haas falls down a lot.
Bear is truly amazing at breaking the puck out.
Just a poorly executed game from the first shift on.
Ugly game.
Opportunity wasted.
Oh well – on to Vegas on Saturday.
Oilers still with a 3 point lead in the Pacific with 3 games left before US Thanksgiving.
Well then
On to Vegas
mcdavid misses the net by 10 feet
I’m so glad we had this time together…?
To think I just thought a bunch of guys fucked up.
Good breakdown
Throwback night.
Jeff Carter appreciation with references to the Stanley cup days.
Oilers playing like they did those DOD days.
Reffing a throwback to the 70s.
Fixed
Watched third goal:
Nurse down low in OZ
Asking Draisaitl to be dman.
Nurse not pick up Toffoli who is moving to center NZ
Draisaitl stops flip out
Passes out to Mcdavid standard fwd play, rather than ringing it.
Toffoli tips puck away from Mcdavid cause Nurse did not follow.
Odd man Counter in other direction
Cause of Nurse initial response in OZ.
Perimeter closed shot
Drai losing carter.
5 hole opens during closed shot. ( not unusual)
Rebound
Carter retrieval ( new phase)
Uncovered open shot for goal.
Agree with DeBrusk there. Some good shifts in a row.
Jesus the reffing sucks
All Bear does is find the outlet. Some how some way
I really appreciate the refs seeing that as offsetting penalties.
THat…is a cross check???
My dentist has used a tongue depresser with more malicious zeal.
OK… I’ve had enough of Chaisson… let him sit in the press box. Ineffective game, dumb plays, takes a retal penatly… sit him
how was that not quincys?
Chiasson is fuckin useless.
And Jones does not.
Bear still making just sublime small little plays on breakout passes.
Nygard may as well play ringette. Putting a blade on his stick is a waste of lumber.
We’re up to once a period now where Night Guard looks like an actual NHL player.
Knee Guard with another glorious chance.
McDavid took Quick by surprise there.
out-quicked.
I just realized that Nugey defending the puck with 1 hand on the stick is not the same as when Drai does it…?
Drai completely snakebit on that shift.
a goal here makes it interesting.
NewAgeSys?
well there have been stretches of great hockey, but we are getting the worst of the exchanges.
After 40:
4-1 LAK (1-1 in the second)
22-19 LAK (10-6 in the second)
33-28 LAK Corsi five-on-five (13-7 in the second)
==
Oilers have this habit of either being laser focused from the opening faceoff or lacking attention to detail from the start. Some youth in the lineup but not a lot. Either way this team has provided great entertainment this year. Not tonight, though.
Details:
Better People?
According to you shots that hit goalies and have zero% chance of going in cause of dman pressure are the same as shots that have a greater than 37+% chance ( open) from dman failing to pressure the corsi. Usually to abandonment.
This is your SOE logic operational sequence description common in machine mechanical science and engineering.
Not Opinion.
I provide SOE logical operational sequence descriptions.
Science.
I identify risk ( bad result) from studied SOE operational failure.
I identify succes from studied SOE operational success.
Machines have all kinds of SOE electronic logic devices and PLC programming to critical Instrumentation fail saves.
Neither are opinion.
I had an experience like that Talking to MRC construction management at Albion Sand site.
When Emad Elzain and I identified as series of machine SOE (fan path operation logic, building position establishing vent paths, open tank elevations.)
A mental modeling.
We told them their would be a huge fire when they started process train tests.
They were fucking arrogant managers who did not understand SOE requiring grade 8 (according to Power Eng programs) thinking.
We analyzed an expected damage area, did up a refurbishment construction packing with timeline and and all equipment replacement lists.
We sent it out to ranking Shell downstream managers we knew. Less than 1 hr after industry knew of the fire.
You end up with a lot of people going “ how the fuck did we get a repair package for a fire that is still burning.”
That is why we got the chance to present a proposal on independent feild as- build eng analysis company to act on behalf of companies like, Syncrude, Sun Cor, Shell reviewing all the sub firms like Colt, Bechtel, Bantrel, SNC Lavalin, Etc.
SOE machine action is critical analytics.
Not fucking opinion.
You are showing the SOE logic strength of MRC managers.
I still respect and enjoy your input.
But clearly understanding what can be ten fold multi variant human Machine action SOE outcome is not you thing.
The last statement is an opinion based on your comment.
According to you shots that hit goalies and have zero% chance of going in cause of dman pressure are the same as shots that have a greater than 37+% chance ( open) from dman failing to pressure the corsi. Usually to abandonment.
This is your SOE logic operational sequence description common in machine mechanical science and engineering.
Not Opinion.
I provide SOE logical operational sequence descriptions.
Science.
I identify risk ( bad result) from studied SOE operational failure.
I identify succes from studied SOE operational success.
Machines have all kinds of SOE electronic logic devices and PLC programming to critical Instrumentation fail saves.
Neither are opinion.
I had an experience like that Talking to MRC construction management at Albion Sand site.
When Emad Elzain and I identified as series of machine SOE (fan path operation logic, building position establishing vent paths, open tank elevations.)
A mental modeling.
We told them their would be a huge fire when they started process train tests.
They were fucking arrogant managers who did not understand SOE requiring grade 8 (according to Power Eng programs) thinking.
We analyzed an expected damage area, did up a refurbishment construction packing with timeline and and all equipment replacement lists.
We sent it out to ranking Shell downstream managers we knew. Less than 1 hr after industry knew of the fire.
You end up with a lot of people going “ how the fuck did we get a repair package for a fire that is still burning.”
That is why we got the chance to present a proposal on independent feild as- build eng analysis company to act on behalf of companies like, Syncrude, Sun Cor, Shell reviewing all the sub firms like Colt, Bechtel, Bantrel, SNC Lavalin, Etc.
SOE machine action is critical analytics.
Not fucking opinion.
You are showing the SOE logic strength of MRC managers.
I still respect and enjoy your input.
But clearly understanding what can be ten fold multi variant human Machine action SOE outcome is not you thing.
The last statement is an opinion based on your comment.
Better people?
Better conversationalists?
Better spellers?
Better Hockey players!
Which is better?
Better in reg season
Or
better in cup final. ( top ga team)
You need the gluten to hold all your voodoo together. That’s how I believe most faith based religions work.