The best story around the Edmonton Oilers yesterday was probably Kirill Maksimov, who scored a goal and added an assist in an overtime loss to the Stockton Heat. Maksimov, along with Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto, represents the most promising skill wingers in the system. He’s many miles from the NHL, but small victories are big steps.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Leon Draisaitl takes the blame as the Oilers’ struggles against lowly foes continues
- Jonathan Willis: A list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Woodcroft on Benson’s ‘gift,’ the next step for Bouchard and acting like a proud parent watching the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Joel Persson’s demotion highlights difficult adjustment for Oilers’ ‘European showtime’ trio
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Evaluating the Oilers’ readiness for the 2021 Seattle expansion draft
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
- Lowetide: Oilers’ college procurement could increase under Ken Holland
- Jonathan Willis: A shift-by-shift analysis of Caleb Jones in his Oilers season debut
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Sometimes it’s just unstoppable’: How McDavid and the Oilers’ power play dominated the Avalanche
- Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones and the crisis that’s looming in the Oilers’ middle distance
- Jonathan Willis: Basically, yes, the Oilers should keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ‘forever’
- Lowetide: Why the recall of NHL-ready Caleb Jones should benefit the Oilers in the long run
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Several drivers make the grade but Edmonton’s bus still has a few passengers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: From 4 to 97, Oilers both new and old share the stories behind their jersey numbers
- Jonathan Willis: Could a fall trade improve the fortunes of your NHL team in 2019-20?
- Lowetide: Analyzing Dave Tippett’s defensive usage and what the Oilers will do when Adam Larsson returns
- Lowetide: What’s going on with the Bakersfield Condors?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shines, mad props for Leon Draisaitl and more to like as the Oilers beat the Devils
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What inexperienced defencemen like the Oilers’ Joel Persson must do to gain their coach’s confidence
- Lowetide: Oilers are closer to having an effective second line than a year ago, but few have noticed
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The beauty of a good night’s sleep can be elusive for many NHL players
OILERS AFTER 24 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 8-14-2, 18 points; goal differential -13
- Oilers in 2016: 12-10-2, 26 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in 2017: 9-13-2, 20 points; goal differential -14
- Oilers in 2018: 11-11-2, 24 points; goal differential -11
- Oilers in 2019: 14-7-3, 31 points; goal differential +11
This year’s model remains the class of the group and honestly has no clear comparable. That 2016 team is going to catch this group, but through 24 games this is the best McDavid team.
OILERS IN NOVEMBER
- Oilers in November 2015: 3-6-1, seven points; goal differential -5
- Oilers in November 2016: 3-6-1, seven points; goal differential -8
- Oilers in November 2017: 4-5-1, nine points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in November 2018: 4-6-0, eight points; goal differential -6
- Oilers in November 2019: 5-3-2, 12 points, goal differential +6
Different angle, same result. No matter how angry and frustrated you are about last night, this bunch has been carrying the mail compared to their predecessors.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
- On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
- On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 5-3-2, 12 points in 10 games
One thing that I suspect will be true: The Oilers will play better in Vegas on Saturday. There will be a burr under their saddles after this game. That means we’ll have a great game to watch on Saturday night at The Rec Room. Are you going to be there? Click this link to book tickets and there’s some information in there about free drink tickets and a few other details. Hope to see you!
OILERS 2019-20
There was a lot of poor play and lack of execution last night, it’s all contained in this NST page. As the lines got jumbled during the game, I’m going to do a player by player summary. All numbers five-on-five unless otherwise noted.
Leon Draisaitl had three shots and two HDSC, lost coverage on the 3-0 goal and was generally poor on the evening. His postgame was something else, he was accountable. He made a 50-50 pass to 97 to turn over the puck in the neutral zone and then released Carter in the goal’s key decision. Connor McDavid scored a nice goal to give some hope early in the second period but lost coverage on Kopitar’s goal, giving him an open look. Caleb Jones lost the initial battle to Kopitar, no sin for a rookie. Ethan Bear got caught flat-footed on the Toffoli goal, although that was a helluva pass. You’d like better coverage there but that’s a tough play.
Joakim Nygard gets less out of breakaways than Todd Marchant and that’s saying something. I kid, but it would be nice to see him cash one of those. Adam Larsson was fine in his return, made safe plays and battled. Alex Chiasson is betwixt and between now, he needs a goal to go in here and get some confidence. Darnell Nurse had a good game, turned over the puck deep in LAK’s zone that would eventually result in a goal but many things happened after. I would have liked him to haul ass back, but Leon had the position covered. Low percentage play though, Darnell waiting in the offensive zone in hopes of a misfire on the clear. He damn near scored later.
Gaetan Haas drew a penalty but he has a bad habit of not stopping events, either by falling down or being slow to execute. I like him. James Neal had one of his pedestrian games. Josh Archibald played well to my eye, would like to see one of those chances go in. Great PK. Jujhar Khaira worked hard (got hurt doing it) but didn’t have an offensive sortie of note. He needs to find a way to get involved in the offense every night.
Kris Russell played his normal game, led the PK crew with 7:16 and was effective. Markus Granlund didn’t get much done offensively but is part of the PK rotation again (replacing Patrick Russell, who did not dress). Oscar Klefbom was probably Edmonton’s best player, his consistency is vital to this team. Riley Sheahan was five of eight in the dot at five-on-five and played a clean 5:46 on the PK.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had one 10-bell chance and won five of eight in the dot. Played well but didn’t have an impact. Zack Kassian skated miles, hit everything and was part of some promising beginnings but nothing rhymed. Mike Smith stopped nine of 12, .750. He was poor. Mikko Koskinen was far better, giving up two while stopping 16 of 18, .889. I expect we’ll be seeing more of Koskinen in the coming days.
Lots of chatter after the game about the Oilers falling flat against poor teams. I’m not sure it has much to do with quality of opponent, seems to me this Oilers team is trying to find consistency. It’s also true we’re seeing regression, Mike Smith’s performance last night was proof it still exists even after an outstanding start.
CONDORS 2019-20
The lines and pairings are courtesy our friend Wilde inside yesterday’s game thread. Maksimov’s push came because Kailer Yamamoto was out, that young man needs to stay healthy. A nice push also for Ryan McLeod, as you know my concern about him is offense and that’s a very nice spot for him to increase the boxcars. Most likely forward recall? Tyler Benson.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We’ll have Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports to talk Oilers, Maple Leafs and Grey Cup. Matthew Iwanyk will pop in at 11 and we’ll preview the Grey Cup and Dave Jamieson will join us live from media row in Calgary as things gear up for the big game. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Its the CFL. Its like High School Football. There really shouldnt even be a betting line imo.
Flip a coin.
Ill be cheering for Winnipeg.
“Kailer Yamamoto was out, that young man needs to stay healthy.”
He hasnt been able to stay healthy since he started playing with men.
Its a risk you take with the smaller players. The really small ones. Some of these players are tough as nails, Theo Fluery, Martin St Louis, Brad Marchand, Todd Marchant, Yvan Cournoyer, etc
Others not so much.
His health combined with a seroius lack of offense at the pro level has me believing that the window is begining to close on Yamo as a top six winger at the pro level. And at 5’8″ 153lbs, you’re chances of being role player in the bottom six is not great.
Yamo is still on a trajectory that could see him get healthy and vie for a middle six role. And although we are all hoping this is the case, I wouldnt bet on it.
Lavoie
Benson
The guy we get back when we trade JP
McLeod
Yamamoto / Maksimov
Kailer is about to leap frogged by Maksimov if his body cant take the punishment at the pro level. imo
We complain about afternoon games (although I tend to like them) but that Canucks game starts at 9:30 am on the West coast. Yikes.
Wow, that out of town scoreboard is set up to make it really easy to know who to cheer for (except for one game). Usually there are more games set up where we don’t want either team to win:
VAN/WSH – no-brainer Caps
CAL/PHI – no brainer Fylers
ARI/LAK – no brainer Kings
MIN/BOS – no brainer Bruins
ANA/TBL – no brainer Tampa
TOR/COL – no brainer Leafs (as it relates to the OIlers)
NSH/STL – only iffy one but probably best to keep NSH as far below as possible
CHI/DAL – no brainer Hawks
NYI/SJS – no brainer keep it rolling Isles
If there is one thing you should know it is mediocrity sir troll.
I definitely lean towards guaranteeing the higher quality asset at a reasonable cap hit like Nylander and then shopping for the lower quality asset in FA than vice versa. This is especially the case when I don’t see a UFA of Nylander’s quality aside from Hall (who would cost upwards of 3mil more than Willy) on the market. I measure it like this:
Nylander & Leivo/Granlund*
Vs
Kapanen & Hoffman/Kreider
*if his down year persists
This would certainly leave a gap in the top-4 D, though. Need to play it like Washington has the past few years and find some hidden quality that can be locked up to term at low dollars like they’ve done with Kempny, Jensen and perhaps Gudas. All these guys are ones who had been mentioned in some way or another in these threads before the trades were made with Jensen getting the most fanfare and Kempny the least iirc.
I know I’ll be keeping a close eye on who might be a viable candidate for this year.
New for The Athletic: Why Dave Tippett’s deployment is a sign the Oilers need a No. 3 centre
https://theathletic.com/1400148/2019/11/23/lowetide-why-dave-tippetts-deployment-is-a-sign-the-oilers-need-a-no-3-centre/
Got it.
I’m in the “don’t slot players above their established NHL ability” as well and as of today no one on the roster can play in Klef’s or Nurse’s spot.
It might be different by the end of the season or the end of next season.
I completely agree with this and said so in real time as we were watching the game. He seemed to be very deep in the crease the entire first period.
Hmm… the oldest wine in my collection is a ’98, so 21 years old. And it’s aging quite well. Maybe I’ll open another bottle soon…
I said nothing about “top-4” though. SHL, SHL NHL would be quite normal, a little slow even compared to 5-10 picks historically. I have nothing against this trajectory especially given his late birthday, I just don’t see him spending that draft+3 outside the NHL.
Neither will arrive for 3 years or so, but I think we have 2 more righty NHL defensemen there.
I think he has more value at the deadline, as more teams will be able to absorb his cap hit. I think Holland will at least ask about him, but I doubt he’ll pay the price.
And?
I’m late to the party… but are you saying DSF is a Master Baiter?
Although, I can’t blame him – it must get lonely living under that bridge in Parksville
while everyone is hopped up on viagra. Poor guy : /
Here’s the thing, when I propose trade suggestions for Nurse, it’s not because I “hate” him. In fact, it’s the exact opposite. Nurse is a young coming into his own prime defenceman who is known around the league. That has much higher trade value than guys like Lagesson, Jones, Samukorov, Manning, Benning or Russell who may or may not be known but they definitely don’t have the same cachet.
We are in dire need of another top 6 forward and that second group wouldn’t sway any GM into giving up any forward of quality but Nurse does have that value.
The other factors are, as Woodguy pointed out, Nurse’s contract demands, and the fact we have “on the cusp of ready” prospects who may be able to step in. Those same prospects are not waiver eligible next season and we could lose one or two after spending the past few years developing them. If that’s the case, the trade of Nurse is defensible even if we take a short term drop in play to maximize asset management.
The possible loss of a prospect for nothing or for a diminished return isn’t an unfounded fear. It’s highlighted by Marino signing with the Pens with the pending Oilers depth chart of Larsson, Bouchard, Benning and Bear all ahead of him. In Pittsburgh, he literally had an open audition for a top 4 slot.
Hall may be feeling “why give a fudge?” as he’s seen this song and dance before in Edmonton. No matter how good the roster is, if the goaltending is subpar, it’s very difficult to drag the team any higher up the standings.
I have a feeling Hall is giving 90% instead of his usual 100% and maybe saving himself from any extra wear and tear in anticipation of his pending UFA state. We’ve all been in those bad work situations where we’re undermotivated and don’t feel necessary to give our maximum. After he’s freed from the NJ, I think he could go back to being the absolute pisscutter that he’s always been.
More than that… lanes, angles, setting up your pivots, gap control, the background… that is the context for your eye is different… plays happening closer to the boards, the relationship of that to what’s behind you, spatial awareness.
To my mind, Broberg ought to follow the Klefbom development model. Provided, of course, it’s suitable for him individually as he develops.
Draft +1, +2 in Europe, +3 in the AHL and then eased into the NHL.
pts2pndr,
It’s all speculation of course because every individual is different (and who knows), but I lean the same way. Adjusting to N. America is big too, good point.
(We have no idea what kind of timeline Holland has in mind either. He might be in no rush.)
There is a speed difference as things happen faster on the smaller ice surface. There is also getting culturally adjusted. Not to mention a step up in quality of competition. Giving Broberg time to adjust by playing in the AHL is the prudent thing to do in my opinion.
Whoa.unexpected and missed.
Anyone remember that galaxy brain image from twitter for the Lucic contract? I can’t find it anywhere.
Someone needs to make one of those for Myers.
Nurse would be the best dman on the Canucks today, playing first pair and leading the team in minutes. Maybe Hughes will be better some day. Maybe. Right now he’s a rookie dman getting highly sheltered minutes, maybe playing 10 min a game 5 x 5 who racked up some points on the PP when it was hot.
That was OP with an uncharacteristic, but sweet nonetheless, piece of sarcasm.
Edit: Aimed at Obored Wan, if that wasn’t evident.
Both so true.
What do you mean by massive mistake? A massive mistake is paying Lucic $6 x 7. Even if you think Nurse is only worth $6.25, it’s hardly a massive mistake to pay him $7. It’s maybe an overpayment; one that will be completely forgotten two years later when lesser dmen get paid even more.
I wasn’t referring to Broberg. I was simply agreeing in principle that you shouldn’t overpay for mediocrity. Then I cited the example of Myers.
And because of this. Especially for a skating defenseman.
This would be my vote for next year.
Even just for injury depth.
Not an ideal development plan for young D. This is particularly true for young D that are not used to the smaller ice surface.
This is so true. Defence is hard. Very hard. And the best dmen make mistakes all the time.
I agree.
The reason why people have been willing to trade Larsson is because they’ve seen what Bear has done in his absence.
We have seen no leftie do the same with Nurse’s minutes.
He will be tradeable during the entirety of his next contract barring catastrophe. Presently there isn’t a bona fide replacement. Which means we’re playing whack-a-hole.
You would need really good reasons to rush this. Like once-in-a-lifetime reasons.
I would agree. I think he will play one more year in the SHL and then AHL to get accustomed to the smaller ice surface for a minimum of half a season but more likely a full season.
but Brogerg has 3 assists and is -3 in 13 games – as an 18 year old.
Agreed in principle.
Yeash, the Canucks are on the rise but too bad about the boat anchor contracts Benning keeps signing.
Myers. Zero goals, four apples, minus 7 in 23 games.
Tha looks like a $6m bottom pairing defenseman.
Unlike fine wine, 29-year-old bottom pairing defenseman don’t get better with age.
Four more years baby!
Sorry that was additional. What I was saying is if you move Nurse you are breaking up a defensive pairing that meshes well. Nurse with Russel was not effective. Until Bear is a more proven D we do not have any measure of how Bear will do paired with for example Jones. I lean to the Godot thinking of not moving Nurse or Klefbom until someone pushes one of them out.
OriginalPouzar,
He knows this; he was simply casting bait. Very simply at that, lol.
I think Smith should have come out and cut down the shooting angle. He was too far back in his net. I had a perfect view of the play from where I was sitting. Toffoli only had one spot to shoot at because Smith left it wide open. He nailed the shot but Smith should have had it.
3 points in 13 games as an 18 year old d-man in the SHL is actually quite good.
Plus/Minus? He possession metrics shine – including relative metrics.
Most, not all – not Nurse, not Bouchard (likely not).
He is also very young for his draft age and its not uncommon for high picks from Europe to spend 2 years over in Europe.
He could go SHL, SHL, NHL – definite possibility but not sure thing.
I would think its quite unlikely that he goes either:
SHL, SHL, top 4 NHL
OR
SHL, AHL, top 4 NHL.
Nurse is one of those defenseman that peaks in his late 20s early 30s the problem is he’s only 24
You are like—super—bored tonight, huh?
Broberg has 3 points in 13 games and is -3.
flames setting franchise records:
– haven’t held a lead in their entire 6 game losing streak – over 360 minutes.
– haven’t scored a 1st period goal in 8 games.
Unfortunately, I expect them to do a 180 pretty soon – blah.
What part of “Je suis d’accord” did I not understand?
I thought that meant I agree with you, en Francais.
Most 5-10 picks are in the NHL in draft+2. I can’t see Kenny leaving Broberg out past that. I.e if he spends next year in Sweden he’ll be in the NHL for 2021-22 for sure.
Pretty sure Godot’s original comment was an attempt at humour..
As you know, players don’t typically get their points at the consistent average described by ppg figures. The points come in streaks of hot and cold, peaks and troughs. I was describing Chiasser’s present trough.
Nor should we ever ignore any heater or cooler a player has had in their career.
Thing is…he’s not a very good defensemen. Second pairing at best.
You can’t over pay for mediocrity.
The coach gets axed before that happens. You can’t have that many star players underperforming to this degree all at once.
Hall only has 2 goals through 20 games. JJ has more goals than Hall.
It is very very unlikely that Broberg replaces Nurse in the next two years. Realistic expectations are better for everyone; player, team and fans.
I fully expect him to be an all-star at the U-20s.
He has already shown to be dominant versus his peers – that type of skating will dominate that age group, every time.