I’m always looking for draft clusters, a congregation of players over two seasons who provide substantial roster solutions to three or more of the 12 ‘key’ roster spots (top two lines, third-line center, top 4D, goaltender). It’s an elusive thing, but can sustain an organization from entry through Stanley. Can the Oilers 2015-2016 drafts fuel this team with as many as five key roster men?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect: Ethan Bear. The 2015 Ethan Bear was a good NHL bet. This Ethan Bear is something else.
- New Pierre Lebrun: How Leon Draisaitl’s contract has gone from outlier to bargain in just 2 years
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers managed without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and why the solutions aren’t ideal for the long haul
- Lowetide: Tyler Benson posting a strong November in hopes of an Oilers recall
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A superstar shines, a goaltender stands tall and a ‘road hockey’ power play helps the Oilers return to form
- Lowetide: Why Dave Tippett’s deployment is a sign the Oilers need a No. 3 centre
- Jonathan Willis: A Jesse Puljujarvi trade is an opportunity of which only one NHL team gets to take advantage
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Leon Draisaitl takes the blame as the Oilers’ struggles against lowly foes continues
- Jonathan Willis: A list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Woodcroft on Benson’s ‘gift,’ the next step for Bouchard and acting like a proud parent watching the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Joel Persson’s demotion highlights difficult adjustment for Oilers’ ‘European showtime’ trio
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Evaluating the Oilers’ readiness for the 2021 Seattle expansion draft
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
- Lowetide: Oilers’ college procurement could increase under Ken Holland
- Jonathan Willis: A shift-by-shift analysis of Caleb Jones in his Oilers season debut
FIVE GUYS
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are the heart and soul of these Edmonton Oilers and will be for some time. It would be an enormous help to the organization if three men who were drafted in the same years—Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and William Lagesson—can play in the heart of the game.
The emergence of Bear at the start of the season and the strong recent showing of Jones offers some hope for Lagesson joining the party. It was just last season the trio displayed similar goal differentials as members of the Bakersfield Condors.
I’m using Eric Rodgers’ numbers this time, the even strength numbers give us more separation. Lagesson had a strong year in 2018-19 and may be able to transition to the NHL over the coming months. Evan Bouchard is likely to do the same, but his cap hit is on a more expensive trajectory. Lagesson should be an inexpensive player next year and that has outstanding value for the Edmonton Oilers. If he can play top 4D, even in a pinch? Music!
One item about Lagesson that rarely gets mentioned is his offensive output at even strength. He’ll never get power-play time in the NHL but finds a way to make himself useful as well as ornamental at even strength.
TOP 20 PROSPECTS 2011 SUMMER
A few notes: I missed on two prospects who played in the NHL. Both Mark Arcobello (139 games) and Taylor Fedun (120 games) were undrafted free agents who beat the odds.
I always wonder what ‘reasonable’ is for a top 20 prospects list. Using the ‘key 12′ positions on a roster as the line in the sand, I think Nuge, Klefbom, Petry are locks. I’d like to include Rieder but the ’12’ doesn’t include third-line wingers, only the centers.
You know, that’s not much for a top 20 prospects list. It should be more, right? I think so. Lots of high picks in there.
TOP 20 PROSPECTS SUMMER 2015
This list is basically the heart and soul of the current Edmonton Oilers, but we’re starting to see a second wind this season. Clearly McDavid, Draisaitl and Nurse qualify for the ’12’ roster spots, and Bear appears to be there as of this season. Jones is emerging 20 games behind Bear, that could mean five names from this list. Add Lagesson? You can say it’s a stretch but his defensive chops are impressive.
TOP 20 PROSPECTS SUMMER 2017
This is a very recent top 20, so there’s miles to go with everybody. The problem here is that the first rounders aren’t way out in front already, meaning the Oilers will need some luck. Ethan Bear appears to be exactly what the doctor ordered, Jones looks good too. I don’t have William Lagesson on the list (No. 21) nor Patrick Russell (No. 33).
There are many candidates for ’12’ positions, including Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Benson, Skinner, Wells, Samorukov. Marino would be on his way to being a counter but he’s in faraway Pittsburgh now.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy and fun morning starts at 10, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic joins us to talk about the Oilers current run, what to do about No. 3 center and the summer cap for 2020. Andrew Peard also joins us to talk Oil Kings and their recent travails, Tom Gazzola pops in for some Oilers chat and we’ve left a segment open just in case we get some CFL news. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter and it’s going to be a fun ride.
seems to include the emoji just fine if you look at the post above
test
I think youd have 3 guys with 50+ goals and 140+ points. Every year
Cheers Kinger!
Oilers have the best 1-2 punch in hockey yet some of you want to split hairs re other teams alleged star players?
Until Lavoie shows up.
You figure $13M for Bergeron and Marchand will still look good in a couple of seasons when Marchand is 33 and Bergeron is 36?
Wonderful. And we fans have enjoyed nearly every moment of his thinking.
I did career and 2 years for recency bias, and made reference to last year in the comments. I don’t think a 3 year sample is going to show a more accurate picture than showing both career and 2 years.
The curse of the cap.
Marchand + Pasternak $12.7 M. McDavid $12.5 M
Bergeron $6.8 M. Draisaitl $8.5 M
Three for the price of two with a fourth liner bonus.
Pouzar,
Pouzar,
– Pouzar: you’ve had some good advice/opinions from a lot of smart people here who have share their insight. It’s such a neat place for stuff like this
– The only thing I would add, given my finance background, is to do an analysis on the the entities. (I’m assuming you are in IT for a company and not a government organization)
– I’d look as best you can at the health and prospects of the company you are negotiating with, vs where you are now. Now in an ideal world, your going to the next super-growth company that has a lot of sales, traction and is profitable.
– Making a move for a “promotion” in a vacuum, when the new company might not have the same stability and/or prospects as your current comapny might not be the right move
– Conversely if your current company has greater growth prospects, you might not want to make the move, simply to be a bigger fish in a shittier murkier pond
– The firm one works at and their prospects is much more important than the title.
FUN FACT: One of my classmates in MBA, we were all taking jobs in i-banking. He turned down an associate role at one of the bulge-bracket firms, and instead joined the M&A group at a large and growing US tech firm in SanFran. We thought he was crazy, but he saw a better opportunity. He made the right call that that firm would grow at a much larger pace than the i-banks, and he would have exposure to better opportunities. After the company sold, he took some of his shares and invested in a bunch of tech companies that are now public, and has F$ck You yacht money
– So while I’m sure it’s not as black and white for you as that example, at this age and stage: but go for the place that has the biggest growth (and not some start-up that may or may not make it because you aren’t in a position to risk having the comp;any go under in a few years)
MacTavish strikes me as a person who makes decisions early on players and doesn’t change his mind with evidence
I know he was reported to be very “open to the idea of using data” but its my understanding that in practice he was mostly open when it confirmed his opinion and eschewed it when it didn’t.
How about 4 years of GF% results?
16/17-today
Bergeron-Marchand on ice 59.1% GF
McDavid-Draisaitl on ice 58.3%
I wonder what 97-29’s number would look like if the 3rd player was Pasternak and not Kassian, Maroon, etc along with a number of players no longer in the NHL?
I can’t fInd the original link, but I recall following the Cult of Hockey boys during development camp. They were pretty surprised that he didn’t get a contract.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/unsigned-edmonton-oilers-draft-pick-erik-gustafsson-has-agreed-to-an-entry-level-deal-with-the-chicago-blackhawks
Now do three years.
ArmchairGM,
Couturier started playing with Giroux in 17/18.
In 16/17 his TOI with Giroux was under 6min and was similar the previous years as they were the 1/2 C’s on PHI.
Couturier’s TOI vs elites as far back as 14/15 (as far as our database goes)
Season CTOI%
20142015 40.7
20152016 49.4
20162017 38.1
20172018 46.0
20182019 46.9
20192020 43.1
He’s been pushing the rock uphill for a long time.
Now his DFF% vs Elites:
Season DFF%
20142015 43.8
20152016 49.8
20162017 53.0
20172018 48.4
20182019 52.4
20192020 66.9
Now his DFF% RelComp (DFF% vs elites compared to rest of his team)
Season DFF%RC
20142015 -3.8
20152016 6.2
20162017 8.9
20172018 5.4
20182019 8.4
20192020 17.9
Lastly his GF% vs Elites:
Season GF%
20142015 45.5
20152016 66.7
20162017 60.0
20172018 66.7
20182019 42.5
20192020 85.7
He’s been the goods since long before he got Giroux to help his results.
Finding these guys cheap is a matter of identifying them before they get a Giroux to help the more obvious results.
A general manager who believes Gazdic or Aulie will move the needle at all is a man who is lost in the past. Gustafsson on the other hand was a young player with skills suited to the modern game. Edmonton drafted him, that’s the life blood of a franchise. Even if they end up trading him because Klefbom, Nurse and others occupy the roster spot he’s shooting for, Gustafsson’s trade value (based on age and trajectory) was miles more than Gazdic or Aulie.
It was a poor decision.
I was referring to seeing Couturier take on the toughest comp as far back as 13/14 and 14/15 as a 21/22 year old.
His most common linemates during those two seasons were:
Read (1768min)
Downie (435min)
Simmonds (406min)
Rafl (246min)
His results with the heavy workload and meh team mates was outstanding, much like Pageau today (albeit at 27 and not 21)
He only got 39 and 37 points those two years.
Now that Couturier has line mates that can score and are good he’s killing those minutes because……who you play with matters a ton in regards to results.
I see Pageau near the same.
If he gets better linemates he won’t only beat (or come close to beating) those minutes, he’ll thrive.
I like Pageau too and think he’s a hard target for 3C next year – and maybe at the deadline if a reasonable deal is available and an extension agreed to beforehand. I just don’t see any justification for $5M – I’d rather see a value deal from the get go, not pay him ahead of time for the defenseman bump or whatever you want to call it.
As for Couterier, while I think he’s an excellent defensive center all his metrics are below 50% when you remove Giroux, as are Giroux’s without Couterier (except his GF%). Seems to be a case where the sum is greater than the parts.
http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20172018&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=PHI&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2020-04-04&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=0&p2=8476461&p3=8473512&p4=0&p5=0
Regarding Boston’s 1st line, it’s interesting to look at shooting percentages this year compared to career averages prior to this year:
Pastrnak: 23.5 vs 14.0 (+9.5)
Marchand: 27.0 vs 15.8 (+11.2)
McDavid: 20.0 vs 14.7 (+5.3)
Draisaitl: 19.3 vs 16.0 (+3.3)
Maybe it’s more accurate to compare this year with the past 2 years (combined):
Pastrnak: 23.5 vs 15.2 (+8.3)
Marchand: 27.0 vs 16.9 (+10.1)
McDavid: 20.0 vs 16.0 (+4.0)
Draisaitl: 19.3 vs 17.6 (+1.7)
It appears one of these duos is running hotter than hell, while the other is much closer to normal. Draisaitl’s shooting percentage is actually down from last year’s 21.6%. He’s been taking more shots though (3.19/gp vs 2.81 last year) so he’s still on pace for 50.
Interestingly, at this point last year Pastrnak led the NHL with 19 goals in 24 games with a 20.0 Sh%. He finished 14th with 38 goals and a 16.2 Sh%, although it’s worth noting he missed 16 games due to injury. His G/GP last years was 4th best in the league.
Our top line needs a Bergeron
I want to give him 5 years because it’s highly probable he continues to do very well vs opposition elite via DFF% for the next 5 years and that’s valuable.
Especially if he gets better help in EDM than in OTT (especially in regards to Dmen)
You’re right about the cost.
He doesn’t score and the NHL pays for points so I’m probably too high at $5MM
Make no mistake about my position though, his hot streak has nothing to do with how I value him.
I value him for his ability to do very well vis a vis DFF% vs elites with meh line mates while getting the toughest deployment on OTT.
Same reason I loved Couturier before it was cool.
#defesiveplayhipster
I just hit “Quote”. I’m not responsible for whether the emoji comes through or not. ^^ See?
Yes. And I’ve had a boo at the stats: Hall is no longer pushing the river. His current 0.91 P/GP (also his career average) is hiding a lot of poor play on his part. A quick google search turns up some article to corroborate:
https://thehockeywriters.com/devils-not-seeing-taylor-hall-they-need/
https://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2019/10/28/20934660/taylor-hall-surprisingly-disappointing-start-contract-year-bad-start-abysmal-on-ice-rates-bro
https://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2019/11/20/20972575/the-devils-season-isnt-over-they-should-still-trade-hall-tho
Caveat: I haven’t studies these articles, I’m only going by the titles and a quick skim.
Sure, of course it does. But I don’t see any justification for a $5M x 5 payday for Pageau. He’s having an extremely hot start to the year, that’s what I’m seeing. Do you really want to give a 27 year old a 5 year term because of a hot 25 games?
Have you watched any Devils games this season?
That ignores the fact that Maroon scored 14 points in 16 games after the trade before we ever traded Hall. We found that “Lucic type player” for basically nothing.
Fucking stupid trade by the most laughable GM in history. At least Fenton wasn’t gifted the best hand a GM could possibly have to start his tenure in a new city.
C’mon… you know you want to.
Scroll up to 4:32pm time stamp.
That said, he may make more. He’s playing the most of any forward on his team lately. (Probably because there aren’t better options.)
Its basically saying….as a reult of the trade….who is better off 3 years later. (assuming Hall leaves NJ in free agency)
Other than for the fact that MacT had the gambling instincts of an imbecile…
Still, the fucker got McDavid. That by itself is good enough for MacT to get his own statue somewhere in the new arena.
Oh man, if only “thehockeywriters” had any journalist integrity.
I would totally click on that link
Seems everyones gone to bed.
So Ill split a hair or two, while I talk to myself.
MacTavish was right. The team did need toughness. (Its one of the reasons he drafted Darnell Nurse) MacTavish knew it. The Hockey World new it ( edmonton was a preferred destination for most other teams…an easy barn to play in). Hell even the guy who was hired the moment we won the McDavid Sweepstakes (and kicked MacTavish to the curb) knew it. In other words, people inside and outside the organization knew it.
One could argue that if Mactavish’s gamble ( in business we call it a calculated risk) with Aulie and Gadzic had paid off (team toughness as opposed to an enforcer), Taylor Hall might still be an Oiler. There would have been no need to hire Milan Lucic.
We lost out on the opportunity to hear “Gustafsson to Mcdavid”…..but perhaps if MacTavish’s bets had paid off we’d still be hearing “Hall to McDavid…..back to Hall”
Hockey is a strange business.
I take your point. And you are correct. …….and yet………kidding…….the rest would be splitting hairs. Thank you for indulging me. ( i got a bit esoteric there)
Management of the 50 man list is so layered it really is fascinating and worthy of more study, elucidation, commentary…imo
Wood guy
I saw a question asking what would you pay Pageau?
I apologize in advance if you posted it but I can’t find the answer
Would love to know your thoughts on term and dollars
Thanks
The Devils Lost the Larsson-Hall Trade:
https://thehockeywriters.com/devils-lost-larsson-hall-trade/
Dee Dee,
Dear Gord this is by far your longest and bestest post ever.
You’re running a business, MacTavish was running a team. He has only 50 players who can be signed at any given time, and he signed Luke Gazdic and Keith Aulie while passing on signing Gustafsson. I expect MacT felt the Oilers needed toughness and the game kicked him to the curb the following season as the team owner flushed him the moment the organization won the McDavid sweepstakes.
Gustafsson to McDavid was never a thing, and maybe signing him wouldn’t have made a difference. However, we can take the “maybe” out of that sentence if we insert Aulie instead.
Andy Dufresne,
We Oilers fans are living it now
Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things
But also
Hope is a dangerous thing, it can drive a man insane
Let’s hope for more of the former and less of the latter in this shawshank season
Theres two kinds of workplace stress.
Manageable stress.
and Unmangable Stress…..this one kills you…literally……kills you…..
Winning is a magical elixir that makes you forget the tragic past, and mistakes.
It adds weight and speed to your attacks making you feel like you are playing downhill and the Net becomes so wide you can not miss.
It makes the air smell sweeter and food taste better.
It increases the standards in your Organization and raises the bar for the rookies.
It affords you the luxury of playing simple.
It turns winners into Hero’s to be forever worshiped.
And it raises the level of your fancy stats.
Losing is a curse and dooms you to only see the negative side. Every mistake is magnified, torn apart and second guessed.
It’s an anchor, a ball and chain you drag around. You are pushing the boulder up a massive hill, and the net becomes smaller than the puck.
It grips your chest and squeezes and you can’t escape from it. You get chirped at the Grocery store and the Bank, people egg your house and taunt your children in school, even your wife and parents will be ridiculed.
It forces desperation and makes you cheat. Risk is magnified and you try to pick up the game on your own back and win it by yourself.
You become the Goat.
Young ones get sacrificed to appease the Hockey Gods. There is no time to do it right. Throw them overboard and let them sink or swim, and they inevitably sink.
You trade 6’s and 7’s for a new crop to try to win NOW, which only guarantees failure and they end up broken.
And every day brings the end ever closer and makes the anchor bigger and the net smaller.
Any given year 16 teams will win and 15 will lose. 23 teams won’t get past the 1st round. “Winning” is very hard.
And its very easy for last years Hero to turn into this years Goat.
So you hold your breathe and wait, dare to believe that this year might be the one, hoping the world doesn’t implode.
The joys of being a fan.
Thanks for removing the 😉 from your quote of my post.
Thank You fellow inmate.
People like you make prison bareable.
Beers on the roof tomorrow!
I work with great guys but man the people above us…I know it’s a story written a thousand times before but I’ve had enough.
The ski fell off that waterbug and he’s let go of the rope.
Social Science tells us that your overall job satisfaction (and resulting happiness) is not a result of the size of your paycheck as much as it is the quality of the person(s) you work for. Particularly your direct report.
Andy Dufresne,
Andy,
We all love Shawshank here. It’s the Warden who is obtuse.
Be sure to have some shined shoes always ready to go!
I liked Anson Carter as a Oiler ( he could score ) and I really like his take on things nice to hear a straight up opinion. Wish we had him doing colour for us instead of the reverse engineer Drew.
Speaking of Bergeron and still being awesome at 34…what do fook happened to Jonathan Toews at 31?
all the best