I don’t have a rant for you this morning, Oilers played a dizzying first period but Craig Anderson kept the Sens in the game. The visitors cashed in their youth and inexperience after the first period for wheels and a motor that wouldn’t quit, with the Oilers getting beat back to the Edmonton net time and again.
Mikko Koskinen, who has been excellent, let in two goals that were poor and another he had no chance on and the Oilers chased the game unsuccessfully. I believe a playoff team wins that game but the Oilers are leading the Pacific Division, so marrying these two things is difficult. This team is an enigma but they’ve shown too much iron this season for me to hammer them this morning. “Good team falls flat, film at 11” was your headline. There’s not enough for a rant there.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. There is also a Christmas gift offer here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland responds to allegations that Mike Babcock mistreated players in Detroit
- New Jonathan Willis: How will Hart voters choose between Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl?
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers turned team defence from a weakness into a strength
- Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers’ latest roster shuffle and the defencemen involved
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
- Minnia Feng: Unsolicited advice for the Oilers: Chinese proverbs edition
- Jonathan Willis: Are the Oilers good now? Subtle changes add up to sustainable gain
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Mikko Koskinen is seizing his opportunity to take over the Oilers’ crease
- Lowetide: Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ farm team recalls invaluable in playoff seasons and paying off in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Oilers deployment shuffle will continue with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins still sidelined
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: One-on-one with Ken Holland, who is facing his first deadline in the Jesse Puljujarvi saga
- Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers go short or long term on Ethan Bear’s next contract?
- Lowetide: The 2010s: Revisiting the Connor McDavid draft lottery — the day the earth stood still in Edmonton
- Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Unveiling the Oilers all-decade team
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 2010s: What went wrong with Nail Yakupov? How the No. 1 pick became the decade’s biggest NHL draft bust
- Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Ranking a decade’s worth of Oilers coaches
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 30 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 13-15-2, 28 points; goal differential -8
- Oilers in 2016: 14-11-5, 33 points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in 2017: 12-16-2, 26 points; goal differential -11
- Oilers in 2018: 16-12-2, 34 points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in 2019: 17-10-3, 37 points; goal differential +5
Last night’s game goes into the loss column and reminds us that this team isn’t as good as the current record. The 2016 club had a +5 goal differential and four fewer points after 30 games, suspect that’s a more accurate representation of the current club. Injuries hurt the forward depth last night but as Dave Tippett said last night injuries are no excuse. I remain impressed with this coach.
OILERS IN DECEMBER
- Oilers in December 2015: 2-0-0, four points; goal differential +1
- Oilers in December 2016: 2-0-0, four points; goal differential +4
- Oilers in December 2017: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in December 2018: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential -1
- Oilers in December 2019: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential -2
Edmonton has 37 points in 30 games and that’s good, so good in fact the team could go a point-per-game over the last 52 games and finish with 89 points. I picked them for 88, so that would represent covering the bet. The Oilers are currently on a pace that would see them post a 101-point season. I expect them to be strong in their next game, it is the team’s modus operandi.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM DECEMBER
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0)
- At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0)
- On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0)
- At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1)
- At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
- Current results: 1-1-0, 2 points in 2 games
I have this team at a point-per-game during December and so far they’re covering the bet. I also had them roaring out to a fast start, but that Ottawa game was counted as a victory.
So maybe this is a modern playoff team, who leave points spread all over North America against weaker teams while offering fabulous opposition to better clubs. I think it’s mostly about missing the Nuge and Kassian plus Koskinen having a rare poor night. Either way, opportunity missed but without the pure rage a game like this would have inspired in previous winters.
OILERS 2019-20
It was a weird game and the Oilers never seem to play well against Ottawa (or Buffalo) but this lineup isn’t fast enough and that’s a fact. All numbers five on five unless indicated and all via NST.
- Granlund-Haas-Russell: 9:14; 10-4 Corsi; 5-2 shots; 2-1 HDSC
- Khaira-Draisaitl-Gagner: 6:49; 9-4 Corsi; 4-1 shots; 1-0 goals, 3-0 HDSC.
- Neal-McDavid-Archibald: 6:34; 7-4 Corsi; 3-2 shots; 2-0 HDSC.
- Nygard-Sheahan-Chiasson: 5:57; 7-3 Corsi; 3-1 shots; 2-0 HDSC.
- Neal-McDavid-Draisaitl: 5:46; 4-12 Corsi; 3-9 shots; 0-1 goals; 1-3 HDSC.
- Khaira scored a beautiful goal from Gagner and Draisaitl.
- Klefbom scored from Gagner and Neal on the power play.
- Klefbom-Larsson: 15:06; 15-17 Corsi; 6-8 shots; 0-4 goals; 4-5 HDSC
- Nurse-Bear: 13:12; 12-13 Corsi; 3-8 shots; 1-0 goals; 3-2 HDSC.
- Russell-Persson: 12:04; 9-4 Corsi; 4-1 shots; 2-1 HDSC.
TYLER BENSON
It’s time for the Edmonton Oilers to recall Tyler Benson. The wins are welcome, the playoff race is exciting and a postseason in Edmonton would be like manna from heaven.
That said, the future matters and finding out about these kid forwards has to be timed out in a fashion similar to the current landing of Oil rookie defensemen into the NHL: One at a time.
This team has a talent problem and a speed problem. Benson has skill and the organization needs to find out about his speed. Last night would have been a good time for his first NHL game, might have even given the group a lift.
There’s a lot about Benson the organization doesn’t yet know and at some point the discovery process has to include some NHL games. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zack Kassian missed last night’s game and the team was so low on skill the Ottawa Senators hammered them 5-2. Benson led the Bakersfield Condors in scoring last year and he’s leading them again this season. Time to recall a skill winger from the minors. Kailer Yamamoto needs to prove he can stay healthy. I think Benson is the right player to be recalled.
CENTERS AT FIVE ON FIVE
I like to have a look at this once every couple of weeks because it offers insight into deployment by Tippett and individual performance. Men like Markus Granlund and Sam Gagner have played some center, I’ve done my best to estimate their performance while playing the position. The results are fascinating (via NST).
- Connor McDavid 34-25 (+9)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 12-10 (+2)
- Sam Gagner 4-2 (+2)
- Colby Cave 1-2 (-1)
- Markus Granlund 1-2 (-1)
- Gaetan Haas 5-7 (-2)
- Riley Sheahan 4-14 (-10)
This is like pondering the Expos of Gary Carter, Andre Dawson and Tim Raines, who also employed Doug Flynn, Chris Speier and Bryan Little. Put another way, as much as McDavid and Nuge accomplish, as much as Carter and Dawson and Raines delivered, Flynn, Speir and Little gave it all back plus a little bit.
Balance. Depth. Edmonton needs a No. 3 center and I believe Ken Holland is at least contemplating a move. The timing of the Colby Cave recall, coming in the hours after Nick Shore was claimed by the Winnipeg Jets, allows us to play along with the general manager.
I find two things fascinating about this situation. First, what does this organization think of Cooper Marody? If they believed in him as a center, he would be here now, right?
Put another way, in employment and deployment the Oilers are saying they would rather run Riley Sheahan with poor results than risk Marody getting those minutes. I find that fascinating.
The other fascinating thing: Just how patient Holland is during this time. He is clearly looking toward the deadline as opposed to making a trade now, or maybe he was holding back on a small tweak because there is/was a bigger trade out there. Either way, the longer Nuge is out the more obvious the problem. Colby Cave doesn’t move the needle on this issue.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A fun and busy morning gets started at 10, TSN1260. We’ll talk NFL at 10:20, Frank Seravalli will talk Oilers and NHL at 11 and Jonah Birenbaum from The Score will discuss the Jays early offseason at 11:25. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
As per Stauff:
Khaira/Drai/Gagner
Neal/McDavid/Archie
Granlund/Haas/Chiasson
Nygard/Sheahan/Russell
Cave/Nuge/Kassian
meanashell11,
godot10,
Ari,
– Some real good stuff on this. I will post a little bit on this with a few links. The volatility velocity and multiplying effect of ETFs, compounded by huge volume trading by quant driving models/machines will produce at some point some devastating trading patterns.
– Often now, in extreme vol, “investors” just have to sit on the side line while these play out…
Holland is what we thought he is. He will not be aggressive, he will not trade picks or the most promising prospects. His is a slow and steady philosophy, even if the ship he is captaining is The Titanic, because if he reduces speed just enough the iceberg might melt before impact.
None of this should be surprising, as he has over 2 decades of track to understand him.
ZSP is BMO, right. and XSP is Blackrock?
One figures the BOC will bail out BMO (TBTF in Canada) if it gets in trouble, and the Fed will bailout Blackrock (globally TBTF)
The potential problem for you is their (BMO and Blackrock’s) portfolio of ETF’s. Your particular EFTs will likely be money good, but you might have to wait awhile to get your money.
I would merely point out that many of those credit ETF’s are mostly holding the debt of many of the companies whose stock is in those stock index ETF’s.
In an economic crisis, it is always better to own financial assets as directly as possible and not through a derivative product, which exposes one to counterparties.
Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes,
Holland is a complete idiot if that is what he does.
He has nothing on the farm. If any of it was worth anything it would be in Edmonton already. Edmonton have the worst set of wingers in the NHL.
Doing nothing gets you nothing.
The present is all that matters. Trading futures is obvious if someone is stupid enough to take them.
Discount rates exist for a reason.
Harpers Hair,
That is what real coaching , real drafting and real goaltending will do for you.
Holland slept yesterday I assume.
Wait until Arizona get Hall while giving up nothing, while the Oilers collapse to the bottom of the Pacific.
Then the fire Holland reality should hit its peak.
godot10,
Fascinating
The more illiquid the underlying, the more risk. I do not know those ETFs but as Godot10 says, it can become systemic and the quants will be at the exit a lot faster than our ETF manager!
I was pretty junior at the time but I worked with Fischer Black but not directly. Hot Spots and Hedges was one of the best risk management models ever developed. That was the result of the systemic risk in the 94 crisis. It provided a 3D vision of a banks risk. As for the GFC, the main culprit was bad underwriting and no skin in the game for subprime mortgage originators and the rating agencies but the part that confused bank management was the Gaussian Copula. http://www.sps.ed.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/84243/Gaussian14.pdf
The hedges will benefit, remember, I am shorting the ETF. I would keep an eye on volatility, never go short vol!
I negotiated some of that restructuring and was a signatory to The Montreal Accord.
The point is not whether it’s shitty, it’s illiquid and the ETFs provide more liquidity than they have themselves. Fatal flaw.
Sorry, I must be missing something here!
Dustrocks Spotify list had some great tunes I’d never heard before… anyone else here willing to share a playlist on Spotify??
I’ll have to add Bearface and Collingwood to the Canadian section.
Has anyone tried Deanston 12 year old single malt? I just bought a bottle on a recommendation and it’s quite nice, although I don’t pretend to be an expert in Scotch.
Does that mean we keep our 3rd?
I certainly agree – I bought a bottle of Writer’s Tear’s last week on the recommendation of this blog, and wasn’t disappointed. The latest plug I saw here was for Shelter Point, but it’s only available in BC / AB, so out of my reach at present.
I’m going out to buy a lottery ticket. If Lucic and Reider can get lucky, then so can I…
Terrible out of town scoreboard tonight… oilers lost their hold on the pacific lead for (I’m pretty sure) the first time all season. 30 games into the season before Arizona took it from them. Kinda miraculous they held onto it this long.
Now let’s see if the oilers respond from their recent shit showing and put up a W. Hopefully Nuge and Kassian will be back in the lineup. Tippett should put Persson back with Klefbom as well and Larsson with Russell. (Although it seems we were playing better as a team while Larsson was injured with Benning in the 3RD slot)
Let’s go Oilers!
The 3 recommendations I saw were:
Shelter Point from BC
Two Brewers from Yukon
Alberta Distillers Cask Strength
meanashell11,
Are index ETFs like ZSP or XSP at risk for illiquidity?
Worried because I’m heavily invested in those.
Aside:
Modern Wall Street, for better and for worse, was made by theoretical physicists who couldn’t find any other employment in the eighties. Wall Street is probably the biggest employer of theoretical physicists since the early eighties.
When the employment market was tough for physicists in the eighties, I turned to telecommunications instead of “banking”.
I got interested in what the banksters were up to in the early 2000’s.
The global financial crisis was arguably caused by physicists who didn’t explain to their financial bosses with arts degrees when their models would break down. But then Wall Street knew they would be bailed out by the Fed, like they were after the NASDAQ bubble, after Long Term Capital Management, and after the Mexican crisis of the early nineties.
The financialization of the economy, and the intellectual destruction of our institutions of higher learning, are leading the world to a horrible place. #GulagEarth
The money changers and the zealots control all the temples.
digger50,
Lol, for real?
As everyone here knows well, the major issue which plagues this team is winger depth/lack of winger skill. One thing that really stood out last night IMO was the superior team speed of the Sens. The Avs were also very fast, perhaps the fastest team in the league.
Josh Anderson, Miles Wood, Anthanisou, Austin Wagner and Taylor Hall are all elite skaters and are players I have had my eye on. I would like to see an acquisition of a couple of these guys and for me, Anderson and Wood might be the easiest to acquire.
I am thinking Chiasson, Marody and the 2020 4th to NJ for Wood, with $650 K retained, Michael McLeod and their 2020 7th. I think Wood could be a “lite” version of Kassian and if he plays with skill might recapture his scoring ways from 2 seasons ago.
I am thinking JP + Caleb Jones for Josh Anderson + Marco Dano. Perhaps the the Finnish GM has no interest, but I am thinking Anderson can be gotten, when last year I thought it would be impossible.
I also think Archibald should be traded, love his grit and tenacity, but he can’t piss a drop. I am thinking he could be swapped out with Gerald Mayhew from Minnesota (where Archibald grew up) who is the same age, but posting intriguing offense in the AHL.
I don’t think Holland will be trading high picks or going after Hall, Kreider or Anthanisou, but I wonder if he could make other potentially impactful deals that would increase team speed.
I am very intrigued in bringing in Michael McLeod and reuniting him with his brother, and having a couple of potential 3 or 4 two-way C with speed, with MM being a righty.
TBH, I don’t know if Holland will do much in the way of trades. My impression was that he was going to ride the year out with the expectation of getting good picks in an excellent draft year, while giving the kids on the farm a chance to incubate longer so they are ready to compete for NHL jobs next season.
And now Milan puts in a goal. Yup.
Milan Lucic scored a goal.
No, really.
Last night was
2GA from Koskinen turning closed shots into open shots with poor technique.
4 GA were Klefbom was a shit show.
For the first 20 gm I was looking at % of games over 2GA.
I prefer a shit show of GA 1 every 4 or 5 games.
Rather than 2-3 3+GA games every 4 – 5 gm.
2GA are markers.
As long as 75-80% are 2ga games.
We should make playoffs and have shot at final 4.
Go Oilers!
I hear you …..well put.
meanashell11,
Thank you for the links.
Will the hedges be the cause or a symptom of the next crisis though? Which would you keep an eye on? Seems to me the primary credit markets would be a better choice due to the propensity of ETFs to hide quality and liquidity issues.
The link I provided above that started this convo is partly about the “bundling up” of debt. In this case, commercial paper as opposed to the mortgage securities that led the parade in the GFC.
Those mortgage products were hedged with credit default swaps back in 2008, but as Meanashell notes above, the commercial debt products (CLOs) are primarily hedged using ETFs.
It’s unlikely you have any money in those ETFs, but as Godot points out, the exposure to Joe Average who’s on Questrade (or whatever) is contagion risk. I do recommend that you read all the fine print on whatever ETFs you are in, as these are unregulated products and can have many structural dissimilarities and/or downsides.
As always, caveat emptor.
Same.
Happy Birthday sir….
I thought you were a physicist.
You seem to be quite knowledgeable about financial instruments?
SJ – 1 PT
VGS – 1 PT
AZ – 2 PTS
CGY – WINNING
OK then …
Excuse me, I’m running out to buy a lottery ticket while the getting is good.
Thank you
Holy cow!
I just watched Rieder score on a breakaway.
Had to watch twice to confirm it really happened.
The other thing is that your ETF provider may blow up because of their credit ETF’s, which might close all the doors for your stock ETF’s. A little like when the commercial paper market froze in Canada a coupld of years before the global financial crisis. A lot of the assets were money good, but an orderly wind down of the bankrupt issuers meant you only got your money/part of your money back over several years.
PHilly is good. They were just a bit out of sync when they played the oilers.
that’s a point. I never knew the 5 x 5 numbers for sheehan were so poor. He really should not be given any kind of free pass. But he never does things that look bad to my eye.. so is he just getting beat or not in the right place?
This is interesting.
My perception was that most ETFs were composed mostly of publicly traded stock and not much of these types of assets.
I get the illiquidity of shitty debt.
We were kinda there in 2011, although that was really shitty debt and all bundled up to not look so much like really shitty debt.
Is the debt in ETF’s just shitty or is it really shitty?
Esoteric ETF’s have a liquidity issue because they are composed of illiquid assets. In a normal market, it doesn’t matter. When volatility spikes, illiquid assets often go no bid, or the bid-ask blows out. It is particularly risky for credit ETF’s. But small sectoral stock ETF’s are dangerous places to be when the SHTF. Some ETF providers will probably blow up, as they will not have credit lines large enough to maintain solvency.
There is a price to pay for convenience. Plus, ETF flows will be frontrun by the algorithmic trades with faster links to the market. They stand near the entrance and exit doors, and they will be first out leaving you in the burning building when the next conflagration comes.
ARZ is 10-3-3 on the road.
That’s just ridiculous.
ARI beat PHI in Philly.
PHI was the 2nd hottest team in the league from Nov 1st until today.
Just behind BOS, just ahead of WSH.
I think Sheahan is playing far tougher minutes and getting started in the D-zone far more than Marody would. Net fewer events with Sheahan than with Marody, and less defensive workload for Draisaitl. Which gives McDavid and Draisaitl a better chance to win the game.
Sheahan is also a better skater, which means there is a better pace to the Oilers game.
The point is how to win with a bad roster.
The Coyotes win and move into sole possession of first place in the Pacific.
Missed it by THAT much.
Minnesota also on an insane run and now relevant in the race.
Already done.
It ain’t pretty.
Awesome! Yeah, Mogwai is pretty great. I have not listened to Swans or Bowery Electric. Pretty excited.
Feel free to do your own arbitrary research.
Glovjuice,
Huge yes on Mogwai, and I’d say Every Country’s Sun is fantastic and stands up to their greats like Hawk is Howling.
Yes! I Am a Long Way From Home off of Young Team remains one of my all time favourite songs by any band.
Mogwai (The Hawk is Howling and Rave Tapes albums); Swans (The Glowing Man Album); anything by Bowery Electric; try out Grails; newer band called Mint Field.