The Edmonton Oilers are winning a large number of games by doing the hockey version of dancing on the head of a pin: Grab a couple of power-play goals, play kitty bar the door at five on five, and hope the goalie is Bernie Parent. It’s a riff off the 2016-17 team, but with the added degree of five on five difficulty.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. There is also a Christmas gift offer here.
- New Lowetide: How many value contracts do the Oilers have and are any more on the way?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland responds to allegations that Mike Babcock mistreated players in Detroit
- Jonathan Willis: How will Hart voters choose between Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers turned team defence from a weakness into a strength
- Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers’ latest roster shuffle and the defencemen involved
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
- Minnia Feng: Unsolicited advice for the Oilers: Chinese proverbs edition
- Jonathan Willis: Are the Oilers good now? Subtle changes add up to sustainable gain
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Mikko Koskinen is seizing his opportunity to take over the Oilers’ crease
- Lowetide: Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 31 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 14-15-2, 30 points; goal differential -7
- Oilers in 2016: 15-11-5, 35 points; goal differential +6
- Oilers in 2017: 13-16-2, 28 points; goal differential -6
- Oilers in 2018: 17-12-2, 36 points; goal differential +2
- Oilers in 2019: 18-10-3, 39 points; goal differential +6
This year’s team owns the same goal differential as the 2016 club, but has been able to add three more wins and four more points from the margin. Either the Oilers are going to stretch that goal differential or there’s a market correction on the way. Either way, those 39 points are banked well before midseason. Good sign.
OILERS IN DECEMBER
- Oilers in December 2015: 3-0-0, six points; goal differential +3
- Oilers in December 2016: 2-0-1, five points; goal differential +3
- Oilers in December 2017: 2-1-0, four points; goal differential +4
- Oilers in December 2018: 2-1-0, four points; goal differential -1
- Oilers in December 2019: 2-1-0, four points; goal differential -1
The goal differential is a concern, we have to assume that will improve when Kassian and Nuge return. This team hasn’t endured a poor start in five Decembers of the McDavid era.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM DECEMBER
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0)
- At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0)
- On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0)
- At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1)
- At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
- Current results: 2-1-0, 4 points in 3 games
Oilers are now ahead of my overall projection but I had them 3-0-0 at this point in the month. It’s already been a strange month, like wandering through the moors of Devon early on a foggy morning.
OILERS 2019-20
All numbers via NST, five on five unless I’m talking about points.
LINE 1 James Neal-Connor McDavid-Josh Archibald played 11:28, going 7-10 Corsi, 3-8 shots, no goals, 2-1 HDSC.
James Neal had two shots, both HDSC, didn’t cash but was dangerous. I would like to see him spend 20 games with McDavid-Draisaitl. Tippett didn’t play him for the final seven minutes of the game. That’s a tell. Connor McDavid had one HDSC, several brilliant passes for chances, won seven of 14 in the dot. He was incredible on the power play, absolute fire. He needs 29 alongside at five on five to cash those passes. Josh Archibald was solid without the puck but wasn’t able to take advantage of a cherry assignment with the captain. Had a nice look but no sale. Lots of PK time for Archibald.
LINE 2 Jujhar Khaira-Leon Draisaitl-Sam Gagner played 10:25, going 7-11 Corsi, 4-7 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-4 HDSC.
Jujhar Khaira had one great chance and a couple of giveaways, won a lot of battles along the wall. He and Draisaitl could play keepaway along the offensive boards until the cows come home. Leon Draisaitl was outstanding on the power play, it’s like he and McDavid, who are split apart five on five currently, are in the movie “Same Time Next Year” and making the most of each precious moment in time spent together. Maybe there’s a better movie reference here but I’m tired and it is late. Won four of nine in the dot. Sam Gagner lost his man on the disallowed goal, made some quality passes and then didn’t see the ice for the final 6:28. That’s a tell, ladies.
LINE 3 Joakim Nygard-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 11:04, going 5-11 Corsi, 0-5 shots, no goals and 1-2 HDSC.
Joakim Nygard’s speed was on display during the game, he drew a penalty and was part of a two promising sorties. Riley Sheahan will never score a goal as an Oiler, he gets a chance a game I swear. Poor in the faceoff circle, two giveaways, didn’t play much on the PK. I wonder if Tippett was backing him off (as he did with Klefbom) on the PK so he could run this line against Anze Kopitar (7:40). Patrick Russell had an open net chance, lots of great puck pursuit and looked solid in 2:04 with McDavid. I swear to God Tippett sees something in him.
LINE 4 Markus Granlund-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 6:34, going 1-5 Corsi, 0-2 shots and 0-1 HDSC.
Markus Granlund took a penalty and didn’t move the needle offensively, but he was effective in impeding progress and spent one minute on the PK. Gaetan Haas had a strong game, blocked shots, derailed progress tipping passes and even earned 1:03 on the PP. He played 3:04 against Anze Kopitar. Alex Chiasson scored on the power play, picked up an assist and was productive on the evening.
I am finding myself noticing both Haas and Patrick Russell doing more good things and seeing more success in recent games. Both are grabbing a stronger hold on their jobs with each passing shift. Both are forechecking demons.
PAIRING ONE Kris Russell-Adam Larsson went 11-16 Corsi in 18:09, 3-6 shots, 0-1 goals, 2-3 HDSC and 1-10 offensive-defensive zone faceoffs.
Kris Russell had a strong game, drawing a penalty, forcing the play to the outside and blocking a couple of shots. Adam Larsson had three giveaways but in all honesty I thought he was outstanding. Had one great scoring chance, moved well, was physical along the wall (he was a clamp on several occasions), and blocked out his man (Doughty) beautifully on the goal against. I’m not going to say he’s back but that was a truly encouraging game. This pair faced the Kopitar line (8:49) the most, bent but did not break.
PAIRING TWO Darnell Nurse-Ethan Bear went 12-13 Corsi in 15:55, 7-9 shots, no goals, 3-1 HDSC and 5-9 offensive-defensive faceoffs.
Darnell Nurse had three shots, one huge chance and a giveaway. A very physical evening, he was a hammer several times. Had a nice chance at the end of a PP early third period. A solid crosscheck on Dustin Brown while on the PK had an impact. Misfired on an empty net at the end of the game pass, causing absolute chaos over the last 90 seconds. Ethan Bear drew a penalty and made several of his patented passes, but also could be found dumping it out and playing things safe. I wonder if that was Tippett asking the skill players to be doubly sure on sorties.
PAIRING THREE Oscar Klefbom and Joel Persson played 11:52, going 6-14 Corsi, 4-8 shots, no goals, 1-4 HDSC and 4-0 offensive-defensive faceoffs.
Oscar Klefbom played under 20 minutes overall and was less noticeable as a result. Tippett clearly reduced his PK time, that should benefit the team in the coming days. I mentioned his recent runaway pinches and those appear to have disappeared, the guy is splendid so expect him to be back playing big minutes as soon as Sunday. Persson is still matriculating, he just needs to play games and find ways to get the puck out under duress. I like him but there will be growing pains. It’s a giant leap. Klefbom is a good partner for him.
GOALIE Mikko Koskinen was the star of the show, stopping 35 of 36, .972. He made several enormous saves and the calm look returned. He made a dandy save against Dustin Brown with less than four minutes left. I’d run him again Sunday.
BAKERSFIELD CONDORS
Condors (9-9-2-1) will be in tough on the road against the Stockton Heat (13-5-1-2), but Shane Starrett is back and he’s a big part of the Bakersfield team. I believe the Oilers will want to see him in Edmonton for a couple of starts this season, so it’s important for him to show well in the coming days.
Wins the thread. People don’t want the cap space spent on piss cutters like Hall, then say a GM with a history of signing Granlunds won’t sign more Granlunds.
Of teams that are strong right now, trading and signings have been made them what they are. It’s not all draft and wait. You can’t always draft exactly what you want and the number of prospects that pan out as hoped isn’t high.
The Oilers have 3 first line centres ( Nuge is one even if not elite if he has wingers) and no proper wingers. They have more D on the verge than room for them.
The Avs Bruins and Pens have been fairly active traders. I’m interested to see what Holland does. A proper top line winger and 3C makes a pretty balanced if imperfect team, maybe balance photo balanced.
Can you describe for us the fabulous depth on D the Dys have? Being an Oilers fan and them being such a shit show for so long, I don’t know their pipeline.
Hopefully we receive confirmation this morning that Nuge and Kassian are indeed playing tonight (along with Klefbom and Neal).
Fingers crossed that Smith brings a solid game tonight.
I can’t see RNH being able to ask for any more than say, Johansen or Duchene in Nashville…$8.0/year
If by that time we have actually found some scoring wingers, and Drai takes his own line, RNH may be even cheaper as the best “3rd line” centre in hockey.
Problem if he is that affordable and we aren’t winning in the playoffs yet, lots of teams will be interested and his eye may wander for a fresh start
Evolving-hockey.com is a good site too.
Naturalstattrick.com has this stuff as well.
Munny,
Nuge is a wonderful player but no one has ever mentioned his name and the Hart trophy in the same sentence. I don’t think they would come in at the same, Austins tradition be damned.
I agree. Stellar post on the whole.
If Hall gets 8.5 from us—thought experiment stop throwing stuff—does that set Nuge’s next contract at the same… and is that doable and desirable?
Given your predictions so far this season have been 0/6 at least, I am convinced the Oilers won’t piss it away on Granlunds.
Excellent.
But please, HH, please keep telling us how Horvat, Boeser, and Miller are gamebreakers. All sub-2.0/60min @ 5×5 players.
Also, keep wagering. How did you make out in November on your Yotes bet?
Lived in Van for 8 years and Canuck fans ruined that team for me. They were absolutely insufferable for all those years the team was actually good. The amount of hockey ignorance combined with arrogance about their city made it maddening. I didn’t like the team because it had too many snivelling cowards that folded like lawn chairs in the playoffs. I hated the team because of their annoying fans.
I could actually like this iteration of the Nucks but guys like HH pop their head out like a prairie dog (not the furry kind) and start beaking after half a season of above-.500 hockey. Good grief. And he comes to an Oiler blog to do it, no less.
This is why I enjoy the schadenfreud whenever anything bad happens to that city. Whatever can happen to those ridiculous fans will please me. That they’ve never won anything of significance is endearing.
I’ve been surprised to see you question whether Hall is/has been worth even $6M during his current contract so I thought I’d have a look.
His $6M X 7 year deal was signed on the heels of the lockout shortened 2013 season where he finished top 10 in scoring. What was Hall’s cap hit, total points, points per game and GF% relative to team (and rank among NHL forwards in each category)?
2013 – last year of ELC
Pts/GP 1.11 (6th)
Points 45GP 50TP (9th)
GF%rel 10.6 (51st of 302)
2013-14
Cap Hit $6M (25th-29th)
Pts/GP 1.07 (6th tied)
Points 75GP 80TP (7th tied)
GF%rel 8.7 (60st of 345)
2014-15
Cap Hit $6M (25th-33rd)
Pts/GP 0.72 (59-62nd)
Points 53GP 38TP (135-139th)
GF%rel 15.1 (6th)
2015-16
Cap Hit $6M (29th-38th)
Pts/GP 0.79 (33rd)
Points 82GP 65TP (20th)
GF%rel 12.9 (24th)
2016-17
Cap Hit $6M (35th-48th)
Pts/GP 0.74 (46-52nd)
Points 72GP 53TP (68-77th)
GF%rel 10.7 (31st)
2017-18
Cap Hit $6M (40th-53rd)
Pts/GP 1.22 (7th)
Points 93 (6th)
GF%rel 13.7 (18th)
2018-19
Cap Hit $6M (44-59th)
Pts/GP 1.12 (16-17th)
Points 37 (153-161st)
GF%rel 13.2 (25th)
2019-20
Cap Hit $6M (62-75th)
Pts/GP 0.86 (40-44th)
Points 25 (33-42nd)
GF%rel -1.0 (190th)
I feel like the only seasons you could claim he wasn’t worth his $6M contract were the two where he missed significant games with injury. I’d argue he was at minimus fair value for his contract in 5 of the 7 years (early returns this year).
Whether he’ll be worth $8.5M or $9M or $11M going forward I don’t know, but I don’t think your 1 of 5 years criticism is at all fair.
They both have 2 years after this one. All 4 contracts I mentioned will still be on the books (if they aren’t bought out) if Nuge reaches UFA. Sounds like it could be an issue.
Rinaldo head shot on the LA’ Nikolai Prokhorkin. Blind hit as Prokhorkin was preoccupied with puck and another Flame. Rinaldo has been suspended at leasst 5 times already in his career. 17:04 in the second period. Ugly.
No. I’m not sure.
And if someone younger and cheaper is available I would prefer that.
Problem is, someone younger and cheaper may cost more in assets. The biggest asset sent away in my proposal is probably the 2020 first rounder. And we are taking back a pick that will probably only be 10 to 15 spots lower. Plus we are clearing the cap space to sign Hall.
I’m betting there is a bigger value in Halls contract at 8.5 than there is in Neals at 5.75.
This move also doesn’t cost a significant piece on the NHL roster for the next 3 years, so it shouldn’t hurt their ability to contend right away.
It’s kinda sad when you drop names like Rousell and Beagle as winger depth. Both guys at $3 mill for two more years after this. Frankly, I’d rather have Chiasson for one more year at $2.2 mill.
Now let’s compare dmen depth.
Three in a row for the Flamingos.
Still only 4-5-1 in their last 10. And on the outside of the playoffs looking in.
They plays the Avs next.
Then Zona on a back-to-back.
This ain’t saying much. The Canucks winger depth is meh. The Oilers likely have the worst in the league. Boesser and Miller are great. The rest are meh.
Oh gawd. Someone gets frisky every time the Canucks win two in a row. lol
He’s crazy good no doubt.
They’ll likely piss it away on Granlunds.
Harpers Hair,
Yup. Extra cheese.
Good grief.
Beagle and Roussel have two years left on their contracts.
This is not an issue.
Looks like LA is buying the pizza,
Quinn Hughes maybe the difference. I don’t think we have anyone close to him in our system.
Beagle and Roussel will be mid-30s by then. They’re overpaid for what they do now.
Easy buyout? Capfriendly tells me a 2021 Eriksson buyout will cost $4M then $1M vs $6M X 1. His is almost as bad as the Lucic deal. And he’ll be 36.
Do you think Pettersson and Gaudette will be playing C full time by then? I guess Gaudette will need to start winning more than 30% of his face-offs.
And here I thought Nuge was fabulous.
Because the Oilers would just take that $8M plus the $4M from Russell not being under contract and do nothing?
What happened, who was involved?
It’s a shame that Beagle and Roussel are very valuable players and Eiriksson can easily be bought out by then.
But I don’t think there’s any chance Vancouver would be interested in Nuge.
They already have three fabulous centers in Petterson, Horvat and Gaudette.
Nuge will sign in Seattle.
Man, if RNH leaves and the Oilers fail to re-sign Kassian, the Oilers top 12 will have 2 actual NHL players. Yowza. This year may be Connor’s and Leon’s best last chance for a deep playoff run.
I said when Benning comes back in to the lineup it will be a boon.
You said he’s hurt and this is true.
Of course, when he comes back, he will be healthy – I thought it was implied from my post.
When he comes back, once he’s healthy, it will be a boon. End stop, my opinion.
Nothing said about potential future injuries and certainly not in the context of signing a player to a long term contract for huge money.
” I would wager he will be a feature player for the Seattle franchise.. But I can’t imagine he wants to end his career playing with schlubs.”
Or you think Seattle will be Vegas?
It’s a shame the Canucks will still have $15M+ in essentially dead cap space owed to Eriksson, Beagle, Roussel and Luongo when Nuge is slated to hit the open market.
But yeah, winger depth.
and that is your right and your pejorative.
Of course, you are sure of many things happening that don’t seem to.
What don’t you understand?
After the boys seen that nasty elbow launch there going head hunting if the score dictates it.
Lucic with his second point.
Perhaps tomorrow you can engage in conversation that interests you and ignore those that don’t?
Huh.
That’s one nasty elbow launch for no apparent reason he might have ended that kids career. Even the paid Flames trolls Burke and Hrudey didn’t know what to say.
We all know you would bolt for the cash will see what Nuge does yappy.
Effin better. I’m holding you to this, Reja.
You post umpteen times in every thread about Hall’s limited games played and yet you make a stupid post like this in response to Benning’s repeated trips to IR.
Love both Egan and Balachandra. Never knew there was a link.
Both.
Funny or drunk? I can’t decide…
That was one nasty elbow. LA will rally in third.
Covers well with use of his big body. But slow to get to the point. I like to see players with being good at more than one thing. His face off been not good lately. That hurts since that is to be why he was brought in.