Tonight it’s actual Tabernac Saturday and the flood of memories flows freely from 40+ years ago and before. The Montreal Canadiens have ruined more Saturday nights for English Canada than ice and snow, and it isn’t close. In a way, this generation’s hockey fans are lucky: Despite Montreal’s success in my lifetime, the team hasn’t won a Stanley in decades. Les Habs won’t ice Lafleur nor Cournoyer nor Lapointe nor Dryden tonight, but I swear to you that crest has been enough on many a Saturday night. The polar bears are the lucky ones.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: As Oilers’ auditions of fringe forwards nears conclusion, it’s time for Condors’ top prospects to force the issue
- Lowetide: The key missing element to the Oilers’ brilliant top line
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We called him ‘The Crane”: Teammates and coaches reveal their best Connor McDavid stories
- Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers have outbid the Coyotes for Taylor Hall?
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s frustration and the impact it could have on the Edmonton Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers need to figure out five-on-five woes quickly, starting with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl
- Lowetide: Who should be the next man up from the Bakersfield Condors?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: 10 subscriber questions for Oilers rookie defenceman Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Five loud noises Ken Holland could make to help the Oilers immediately
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 39 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 15-21-3, 33 points; goal differential -22
- Oilers in 2016: 19-13-7, 45 points; goal differential +4
- Oilers in 2017: 17-19-3, 37 points; goal differential -12
- Oilers in 2018: 18-18-3, 39 points; goal differential -7
- Oilers in 2019: 19-15-4, 42 points; goal differential -4
Turns out the gales of December are devastating too. The Oilers played well enough last night but can’t outscore the goaltending and mistakes/coverage breakdowns. It’s a tough part of the schedule, and the Oilers don’t have enough impact players. The team’s impact players have hit a wall (well, Leon has hit a wall, McDavid is McDavid) and we’re just going to have to wait until he gets a second wind. One doubts it will be tonight.
OILERS IN DECEMBER
- Oilers in December 2015: 6-3-2, 14 points; goal differential -5
- Oilers in December 2016: 6-2-3, 15 points; goal differential +2
- Oilers in December 2017: 7-4-0, 14 points; goal differential +9
- Oilers in December 2018: 6-4-1, 13 points; goal differential +4
- Oilers in December 2019: 3-6-1, 7 points; goal differential -10
Mikko Koskinen is 3-4-0 in December, Mike Smith is 0-2-1. Koskinen’s save perentage during the month is .919, Smith’s .826—and last night’s showing improved it from .820. Whatever the flaws of the overall roster, and they exist, very difficult to project this team as a success moving forward while Smith is in this zone.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-2-1)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1)
- At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
- Current results: 3-6-1, 7 points in 10 games
You can get angry at Dave Tippett for running his best players so hard, but what the hell else was he going to do? Ken Holland’s experiments (numbers below) are intriguing but the only real solution to a substantial problem this season (Ethan Bear) came from the draft.
OILERS 2019-20
Edmonton won the five on five Corsi battle, and were close for much of the game. All numbers five on five unless noted and via NST.
LINE 1 Nuge-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 16:03, going 16-9 Corsi, 8-5 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-0 HDSC.
Nuge had a giveaway, two takeaways and some looks but nothing dangerous. McDavid had two shots, one dangerous pass and turned over the puck a couple of times. Had a dandy PP chance, too. Zack Kassian scored on a nice tip, at this point I don’t think Holland can (or will) avoid an overpay on cap and term. The die is cast. Line got a steady diet of the Malkin line and Johnson-Letang pairing.
LINE 2 James Neal-Leon Draisaitl-Sam Gagner played 11:49, going 11-14 Corsi, 6-10 shots, 0-2 goals and 1-4 HDSC.
James Neal didn’t get a lot done. Leon Draisaitl delivered two shots, HDSC, drew a penalty. Sam Gagner, like Nuge, had several beginnings but got overwhelmed by an aggressive Penguin. No time to think for Edmonton and this line gave up two goals at five on five.
LINE 3 Joakim Nygard-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 8:42, goin 11-6 Corsi, 9-4 shots, no goals and 3-2 HDSC.
Joakim Nygard had a great chance and took a penalty. Gaetan Haas was flying out there, had a couple of chances and really caused havoc. Alex Chiasson had two shots, a good chance and a couple of giveaways.
LINE 4 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 8:01, going 2-1 Corsi (holy low event, Batman!), no shots no goals no high dangers.
Jujhar Khaira was quiet. Riley Sheahan scored a shorthanded goal, Edmonton’s first of the season. Drew a penalty. Josh Archibald picked up a SH assist, had eight hits which I don’t usually mention but eight is a lot.
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 19:19, going 13-16 Corsi, 8-9 shots, 1-1 goals and 3-4 HDSC. Player 12 minutes with the McDavid unit.
Darnell Nurse had an assist, two shots, blocked three shots and was physical. Ethan Bear had a second assist, and three giveaways. Rookies struggle at times, Bear is working through some things as teams adjust and attempt to grind him down. For me, Nurse’s pass was dangerous but I also think Bear needed to be more aggressive in retrieval, your mileage may vary.
PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson played 15:58 and were 17-15 Corsi, 8-6 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-3 HDSC.
Oscar Klefbom had three shots on goal (one a nice backhand) and a couple of blocked shots, I thought he was slow to react at the end of the PP on the SH breakaway goal by Joseph Blandisi. Adam Larsson has been jumping up in the play more of late although no goals yet. Some were critical of his not blockin the Letang shot for the PP goal, but he couldn’t get out there in time, play developed too quickly based on his starting point.
PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Caleb Jones played 12:06 and went 8-5 Corsi, 5-3 shots, no goals and 2-1 HDSC.
Kris Russell had a shot on goal, but was mostly useful for defending, which he did well. Jones I thought had one of his better games, he’s getting more chances with the puck now and you can see his creativity. Three shots, played well.
GOALIE Mike Smith had another poor night. The first goal was not good, the second one was a breakaway and exposed his difficulty in moving laterally, as did the third one. Ken Holland and Dave Tippett are loyal men, but they’re also realistic. One imagines Smith will see the net infrequently in the coming weeks.
CONDORS 2019-20
The Condors play tonight in Loveland, Colorado against the Eagles. That’s the team that hired Kale Kessy to harm Condors in last spring’s playoffs, and he did just that to Cooper Marody. It’s a big weekend for some of these kids, surely Holland will be reading the reports and there are several Oilers who could sit a spell.
It’s kinda funny when Woodguy posted that league average SV% on odd man rushes or breakaways was about 0.700-0.750 after Smith’s pitiful performance. Then we go out and lay an 0.000 on Carey Price when we score on both our 2 on 1’s and McDavid scores on the PP breakaway.
At least Price got his stick on Drai’s shot but Smith was pancaking while the shooters out waited him and flipped it over his open glove each time on the two breakaways he faced. Koskinen had a solid game but he still let in two low glove shots that maybe should have been stopped
hunter1909,
Can’t have all your eggs in one basket. You have to have good developing talent, either to make the team, or trade if no room (a great problem to have). You also have to be ready to trade should the need arise.
A lot of people think binary. It’s hardwired into our brains ever since “is the grass moving a predator or prey?” Some here liken it to finance. I would say, from my limited understanding, it is, but not in the way they think.
Traditional thinking is “high risk, short term” but drafting and building is actually high risk, long term”. The risk comes from poor scouting, poor development, busting, or a combination thereof. But you won’t know for a few years.
That’s why trading or UFA signing, proven, developed players will always be a thing.
People tend to do what has previously brought them success, despite the parameters for success changing. Has Kenny changed enough?
Not yet.
On the “to-do” list
Oilers basically suck forever because they never develop anyone and you want to trade away the few decent prospects they’ve had since that strike season when Shultz starred in the AHL??
That is a good short term solution and as a long suffering fan of the first order that I am I heartily sympathize with you; but on the other hand how about if instead they go out and make certain their bottom 6 and goaltending is solid as possible because unless both are they’re not winning anything anyway?
I got this idea during the last game when I suddenly realised it’s time to put serious pressure on OIler’s role players then replace the dross asap. It’s a lot easier than collecting UFA alleged superstars many whom break down right when the team that signs them needs them the most, lol
PS re Hall: Dude’s playing in for a division rival so everyone gets the chance to see what he can do before July when he signs a sweetheart deal to star for the upcoming Oilers mini-dynasty. Or something.
Yes. Actually I would have offered Broberg or Samokurov as they are both left shot defencemen and that’s where we are deepest on the roster. Caleb Jones and Lagesson would have also been on the table but I don’t think they were tempting enough to get it done. It was widely known that NJ was looking for defence prospects in this deal with names like Bowen from COL as a rumored ask and Bahl as a big part of the eventual trade.
Something like Broberg and a 3rd moving to a 1st rounder assuming the same conditions that ARI laid out in their 2021 conditional pick. Maybe even add Neal and a 4th rounder to help the cap work out for the Oilers
I totally understand that it would be a huge risk but no bigger than the Raptors going out and getting Kawahi Leonard. Unlike Leonard, I think the Oilers would have been well positioned to re-sign Hall during or after the season, especially if we went on a strong playoff run.
My thoughts are that Holland tried “shotgunning” a number of bottom of the roster euro forwards in the hope that one of those bets would catch lightning and slide UP into the top 6.
I would flip that strategy on it’s head and try grab top of the roster players like Hall to push very good players like Drai or RNH DOWN into 2nd and 3rd line roles where they would more likely dominate.
Championships are sometimes built on a leap of faith and a longshot bet. Hall is one of those bets, if it pays off, would lead to a Cup.
My fear is that we are in a perma rebuild with not enough talent surrounding Hall during his prime years as an Oiler, and now McDavid during his prime years. Guys like Haas, Nygard, Granlund and even Chaisson or Kassian fill roles on the roster, but they don’t move the needle to lifting the team from pretenders to actually Stanley Cup contenders
Man Montreal gives up more two on ones than the Oilers!
Thoughts on the game:
Big win tonight but I have to admit I thought it was going to fall apart there in the second. Didn’t think Koskinen was great but that’s ok. Good on the oilers to get 4 tonight. They need to win on Monday now or it it’s all for nothing. The Canucks are so far up our asses they can almost see Calgary’s feet.
Harpers Hair,
I never said they would. Just examples of the type of forward I would be targeting opposed to an rental/expensive UFA in Hall
Penguins outshoot the Nucks 29-7 over the làst two periods after zero shots in the first. Markstrom saves 28/29. Matt Murray with a Mike Smith-like performance stats-wise with only 10/14 saves. Why didn’t we get that kind of Penguins goaltending last night?
Neither of those players will be available.
Having Hall would be great but it makes way more sense to spend the assets on a younger cost controlled forward in the summer. Along the lines of a Ehlers or Nylander
Lias Andersson for Jesse Puljujarvi straight up. Both want out of the team that drafted them
If you wait to find out, you’ll be standing beside the road.
Marino,( doesn’t count) Bear, Jones that’s one hell of a draft Broberg, Bouchard and the sleeper out of the group lagesson. Which 4 don’t make it?
I don’t have that much time unlike yourself I didn’t have a soft touch and a silver spoon.
How often all of them will pan out. I can see maybe 2 out of the bunch.
Totally agree that it feels like the guys are playing scared, afraid to make mistakes. I’m not sure the coach can snap them out of it.
I’ll bet a Woodguy he’ll never admit it, but somewhere buried in this blog is a thread in which I argued Woodguy that Draisatl would be better than RNH and he argued against it.(early in Draisatl’s career).
Excellent post. Although I might not agree with trading those kind of assets for a pending UFA, it was very well thought out. It feels like we keep spinning our wheels doing nothing to improve the roster.
PS. I have no qualms about spending material assets on someone who has term.
Always next year…or the year after that.
All shall be revealed.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/this-man-destroyed-my-hockey-team-for-a-decade-ken-holland-ripped-by-espn-sportscasters
Your forgetting up front what about Yamo the 139 pound professional penalty drawer and Benson with his sweet passes. There’s also McLeod ( there can only be one ) but the main attraction the steal of the draft who’s going to make the team out of camp next year and score 25 standing at 6 foot 4 and weighing In at 200 pounds Raphael Lavoie
So McDavid with the best wingers (other then Nuge and Drai) (i.e #4 and #5) only gets 50%.
Nugent-Hopkings and Draisaitl are playing with #6, #7, #8, and #9th best forwards on the team do worse.
When McDavid is without Nugent-Hopkins or Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins is typical facing the toughest matchup.
So I don’t see what is surprising about the results. Nugent-Hopkins are Draisaitl are playing with two gritensity types in the numbers you post.
I hope Nuge sits out the game before and after the break to allow his hand to heal, hopefully a few extra days off can help. He’s not bringing a lot to the game as is, I understand we have few true nhl forwards but I hope he rests that hand till its closer to 100%
The Oilers should not be trading high end assets for pending UFAs – the reasoning isn’t a mystery.
Why not?
Edmonton has a glut of D prospects.
Nothing like reading a box score to analyze someone’s play.
Are you implying that you would have been OK trading Bouchard or Broberg for a pending UFA Taylor Hall?
Weird game.
Pittsburgh now outshooting Vancouver 16-7.
We need to be +1; pt – gm every 6 gm to have a chance at playoffs.
Okay, so if Holland builds through the draft, and the Oilers have no winger depth, and RNH and Larson become UFA’s after next season, so they need to be replaced, are we looking at 3 or more playoffs missing McDavid? I can’t see any of McDavid, Draisatl, Katz, or the fans supporting Holland that long…
4-1 Colorado.
Starret getting shelled.
whats the score?
Interesting comments.
I do agree Hall would make us (any team) better.
“Samokurov” – I doubt he and some lesser pieces wouldn ave got it done? AZ offered a lot for a rental
“Justin Bourne” – The Good teams make it clear by Jan. Wins in Oct are great but Playoff teams win in JAN FEB MAR
“To me, there was an opportunity to instantly make the team a solid playoff contender” – I honestly belive Holland wants to build a Stanley Cup Winner, not just a playoff contender.
“but ARI did and that’s why they’ve solidified their position at the top of the division and why they’ll be favorites for the rest of this year.”-
Brian Burke didnt understand the trade. It makes Az better but he feels they still are not better than 4 or 5 other WC teams. just saying
“low and steady route while wasting the next two elite years of McDavid and Draisaitl” – Just bc Edm didnt land Hall doesnt mean Holland wont sign an FA or make a hockey trade over the next 2 years. He will
Oilers won yeah. We’ve been playing good system hockey but we’re playing scared to
make a mistake hockey and we all know how that ends. Holland wake the fuk up and get a 3C your making 5 large get it done use your markers for Christ sake. Tippett snap them out of this funk it’s ok to finish your checks hard and go to the net with a purpose.
Starrett with a breakaway save early in the 3rd to keep the Condors in it.
Pittsburgh with 0 shots on goal through the first period.
v4ance,
Since no one was allowed to talk to Halls agent to see what his demands were the trade was to risky if he leaves in offseason, and there’s a pretty good chance we would still miss the playoffs with Hall
Acquiring Hall for futures is not a move I expect Holland to make
I expect a rebuild through draft with digging for players through the garbage pile
A couple of items:
According to Friedman, Edmonton wasn’t willing to part with Broberg, Bouchard or Samokurov and with the many draft picks Chiarelli had wasted over the past 4 years, Holland wasn’t willing to give up any more picks, even for Hall. We had 3 high end defence prospects and we couldn’t have spared ONE for Hall? Isn’t that the play? Trade from areas of strength?
***
A few days ago, it was reported during an Oilers broadcast that Hall was held out in Colorado for the pending trade to ARI when a last minute bidder entered the picture. The speculation was that it was the Flames and that it was a “hockey” trade with roster player(s).
The Devils management paused to reconsider the offer and that’s why Hall was held out against ARI and even made the trip back to NJ after the game against the Coyotes. Then they finally accepted the ARI offer and Hall had to make another cross country trek. I can totally understand Hall having a lot of juice for his first ARI game since he hadn’t played for almost a week.
***
Justin Bourne was on during a pre-game set where he talked about teams having early season success. He made a good point that the start of the season has lots of teams working out kinks in their systems and trying to incorporate new players into their rosters. He wasn’t talking directly about the Oilers but later in the season, teams are more comfortable and their systems and structures are better at defending. He mentioned that skilled players could take advantage of this early season chaos but struggle later on when teams don’t give up as many opportunites.
***
To continue a point Woodguy posted earlier, usually each season, there are only a few players who are available that are actual pisscutters, difference makers, play drivers. If they are at the top of their games, they command Kings’ ransoms. Hall had many question marks so he returned a nice package but not a extravagant one.
To me, there was an opportunity to instantly make the team a solid playoff contender. We didn’t make the deal but ARI did and that’s why they’ve solidified their position at the top of the division and why they’ll be favorites for the rest of this year.
Part of the debate around here has been whether we needed a top 6 forward to help the 2nd line or a #3C. Getting Hall would have achieved that in one master stroke. Hall could have gone on the 2nd line with Drai. As much as we joke about it after Hrudey’s comments, our elite #3C would be RNH dropping down from the 2nd line. McDavid and Kassian have enough chemistry to carry just about anyone on the 1st line.
I totally understand that there was a HUGE risk to the acquisition of Hall. My opinion of the forward prospects bubbling under is that they won’t make a material difference for at least 2 more years. So to me, passing on Hall means that we’ve stayed with the slow and steady route while wasting the next two elite years of McDavid and Draisaitl.
Plus, to me, Koskinen is a good enough goalie right now, this year. Next year, we have no idea if Koskinen stays at a 0.915 SV% or if he regresses. Goalies are voodoo but if you have a hot one, you can ride them all the way to the finals like Edmonton and Carolina did in 2006
Yes because saying a player is not worth a 6-7 million a year contract when you have no cap space is running him out of town.
Sheesh
And I was one of the few that wanted to keep Petry and wondered why he never got PP time
Eagles regain the two goal lead late in the 2nd – nicely executed 2 on 1 in tight – no chance for Starrett.
Cave with a nice wraparound goal – solid effort.
Condors back within one.
Thank God we don’t have the same ppl around that ran Petry out of town.
Thank God we won. The Nurse haters will be out in full force with torches and pitchforks tonight. I can’t imagine how bad it would be if we lost.
I’m surprised the other teams haven’t figured this out. All they have to do is play 60 minutes without a goalie and they are guaranteed a shutout
Where would we be tonight without Archie!
Larson/Klef got killed in possession but no goals against – Nurse/Bear were so high event.
Damn Archie/Sheahan were great tonight.
I love healthy Archibald. I’d bring this player back for sure if he can show his body will hold up playing like this night in and night out.
Big win!! Archie doubled his point total.
Unless it happens to be a fairly large dog and it just lays on the very small dog.
Happy for a Tabernac victory!