The double waivers on Saturday morning (Brandon Manning, Markus Granlund) signaled the Oilers were going to shuffle the roster a little after the poor December that will wrap up on Tuesday. The big question: Who is going to fly north?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘If I have another one in a short time, my career could be over’: Recent head injuries concerning Oilers’ Matt Benning
- New Jonathan Willis: The Oilers have actual problems; Connor McDavid’s defensive game is not among them
- New Jonathan Willis: Oilers waive veterans Markus Granlund, Brandon Manning in Saturday shakeup
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We didn’t come with the mindset to play a hard game’: Poor preparation leaves Oilers coach steaming
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ goaltending depth chart in need of talent injection
- Lowetide: Oilers’ fleet centre prospect Ryan McLeod finding the range with the Bakersfield Condors
- Jonathan Willis: Leon Draisaitl is struggling badly, even as the Oilers’ depth forwards seem to be coming around
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Lias Andersson in trade?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Broken toes, holiday-time hospital visits and memories of home: A week in the life of Oscar Klefbom, the Oilers’ do-everything defenceman
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Grasping Mike Smith, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers’ recent plight by reading between the lines
- Lowetide: As Oilers’ auditions of fringe forwards nears conclusion, it’s time for Condors’ top prospects to force the issue
- Lowetide: The key missing element to the Oilers’ brilliant top line
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We called him ‘The Crane”: Teammates and coaches reveal their best Connor McDavid stories
- Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers have outbid the Coyotes for Taylor Hall?
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s frustration and the impact it could have on the Edmonton Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers need to figure out five-on-five woes quickly, starting with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl
- Lowetide: Who should be the next man up from the Bakersfield Condors?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: 10 subscriber questions for Oilers rookie defenceman Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Five loud noises Ken Holland could make to help the Oilers immediately
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
OILERS 2019-20
I’ve been predicting a large number of roster changes this season, the record is 43 and there was a chance this year’s club could push for that number. I don’t believe it now, because we’re halfway through the season and stuck at 27. Two new recalls, if they aren’t Cave and Persson, will put the roster at 29. Still a long way to go.
Who should they recall? If I was king of the world, it would be one of Tyler Benson or Kailer Yamamoto up front, and William Lagesson on the back. I would further insert both into the lineup soon, especially the forward. Once again, here are the scoring numbers at five on five from the Oilers forwards this season. I’ve used NST to find the 372 busiest NHL forwards this year, and ranked the men below in terms of lines. Here we go:
- Connor McDavid 2.91 (first line) (681 mins)
- Leon Draisaitl 2.80 (first line) (665 mins)
- Zack Kassian 2.48 (first line) (581 mins)
- Sam Gagner 1.72 (second line) (243 mins)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.05 (fourth line) (455 mins)
- Gaetan Haas 1.00 (fourth line) (298 mins)
- Joakim Nygard 0.97 (fourth line) (247 mins)
- Jujhar Khaira 0.88 (fourth line) (408 mins)
- Markus Granlund 0.82 (fourth line) (292 mins)
- Patrick Russell 0.74 (fourth line) (324 mins)
- James Neal 0.70 (fourth line) (513 mins)
- Alex Chiasson 0.61 (fourth line) (395 mins)
- Josh Archibald 0.57 (fourth line) (317 mins)
- Riley Sheahan 0.51 (fourth line) (352 mins)
There are over 2,500 minutes devoted to men who are scoring less than 1.00 points per game. Who should they recall? The best offensive option available.
CONDORS 2019-20
I think Benson is a safer bet and that Yamamoto has a more impressive outer marker. I’d call both men up but the world might burst into flames.
Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Kailer Yamamoto
Tyler Benson—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Zack Kassian
Jujhar Khaira—Riley Sheahan—Josh Archibald
Joakim Nygard—Gaetan Haas—James Neal/Sam Gagner/Alex Chiasson
I know what you’re saying, how can I possibly put Neal on the fourth line and run two absolute rookies in the top six. My answer: What are the alternatives? Haas might have earned a shot at the skill lines, but Neal, Chiasson and even Gagner have been inconsistent. These aren’t stone cold rookie pros, like Ryan McLeod and Kirill Maksimov. Yamamoto was a first round pick in 2017, both men chosen ahead of him (Robert Thomas and Filip Chytil) are NHL regulars. Benson led his AHL team in points as a rookie and is leading his team again as a sophomore pro.
What about our rebuild??
Jones/Yamamoto would line up pretty well with Chicago’s rebuild.
Bakersfield Condors v. San Jose Barracuda; December 29, 2019; 5-on-5; after two Periods:
17CF-27CA
7FF-12FA
3GF-2GA
Top F: Marody (1.51 Game Score)
1 shot attempt, 6 shot assists
1 assist
9CF-3CA
1GF-0GA
Top D: Kulevich (0.21 Game Score)
1 shot attempt, 0 shot assists
5CF-5CA
1GF-0GA
Bakersfield Condors v. San Jose Barracuda; December 29, 2019; 5-on-5; after Period One:
9CF-6CA
3FF-1FA
1GF-1GA
Top F: Cave (1.21 Game Score)
1 shot attempts, 0 primary shot assists, 40.00 primary shot contribution %
1 goal
2CF-0CA
1GF-0GA
Top D: Samorukov (0.61 Game Score)
2 shot attempts, 0 primary shot assists, 50.00 primary shot contribution %
1 (primary) assist
5CF-1CA
1GF-0GA
Condors were full value for thew win – their goals came on high danger opportunities,
The score represents the game moreso than the shot clock – Condors had a multiple goal lead almost the entire game.
Wait wait wait…
The condors just won a game 7-5, but only had 18 shots all game!?!? And one of those shots was the empty net goal at the end?!?!?
That has to be some sort of record or something… What stupidly bad goalering for the Barracuda…
If only the oilers would be so lucky to play a team that shit the bed like they did.
Nope, oilers don’t get to be that lucky. #becauseoilers
Bakersfield Condors v. San Jose Barracuda; December 29, 2019; first run
Benson – Marody – Currie
Esposito – Cave – Maksimov
Gambardella – Malone – Koules
Stukel – McLeod – Peluso
Lowe – Persson
Kulevich – Bouchard
Samorukov – Day
Maybe that would sway some folks to the GMs camp, because it would mean he invented GMing.
….well this makes me saad.
starting super late on tonight’s game
Saad is injured.
I wonder if it’s Yamo, Jones and Neal for Saad?
That would cheer this fan up
Jaxon,
I think Yamo is being shopped.
I feel bad for Benson. He leads the AHL team in scoring over the last 96 games. He outscored Yamamoto in the regular season and the playoffs in the WHL the season before that. He’s 6 months older than Yamamoto. He’s left-handed on a team short of lefties. He is a hard-working, unselfish, 200-foot player, who is hard to knock off the puck. He’s overcome major adversity with his injury woes. What more does he need to do? That’s gotta sting a bit.
Most of that wasn’t really my thought on what’s going to happen but my thoughts on why the org may have called him up over Benson – yes, of course, they are my thoughts on what I hope will happen and could happen.
He may very well prove to be a tweener, for sure, however, he’s not even half a season in to his second pro season – he’s a developing prospect right now. We are about to see how his development translates to the NHL – it may not but we will find out.
I can’t full agree that he hasn’t excelled at the AHL level – nope, the points aren’t there but I think his box cars under-represent his play – he contributes/creates many scoring chances – every period – he’s playing with solid AHL veterans but those without great skill.
I’m curious to see how he does over the next few weeks.
Beauty goal by the Condors. 3 on 1 among Bouch, Currie and Cave – tick tack tick tack toe and Bouchard puts it in – Currie with the ultimate pass over to Bouch.
6-3 Condors to the second intermission.
Game on – Jason Gregor’s nephew snaps one to make it a 5-3 game with a few minutes to go in the second.
OriginalPouzar,
Thanks for the updates!
Mad scramble in the defensive zone on a PK – Skinner with some good battle saves but then one is banked in off a couple of Condors from behind the net and in.
5-2 Condors.
Joe G. and Sammy with apples on the Koules goal.
I wouldn’t bet my money on your beliefs even though I love your posts. By my visual Yamamoto is a set up player not a finisher. He is an average NHL skater with a shot he could practice in a hotel lobby and not break a window. His hockey IQ is above average but that is all. He is a tweener. I wish him all the best but having seen him from his draft season forward this is how I see him. I truly hope I am wrong but his injury woes speak to lack of size and lack of speed. His inability to excel as an AHL player speak to his lack of speed and finish. Waddles like a duck talks like a Trump ( see his remarks re draft) probably an over sell on a duck!
Miles Koules with his first as a Condor – rips one from the bottom of the circles on a semi 2 on 1.
5-1 Condors with 14 minutes left in the second.
Condors with a great execution of a 3 on 2 – cross ice pass from Benson to Marody – good low shot on net, Currie buries the rebound.
Esposito picks the pocket of the d-man and buries a shortie.
3-1 Condors.
McLeod is on the PP with Bouchard, Malone, Cave and, I believe, Joe G.
That unit started both PPs.
Keegan Lowe goes back for a puck retrieval on a dump-in – even with a forechecker – bad luck that the puck bounces right out to the slot for a quick strike goal.
2-1
Malone with a PP goal – kind of an ugly one as he bounces it in off two defenders but the Condors are up 2-0 early.
Cave opens the scoring with a very skilled play – skates the puck through a bunch of Barracuda and snaps one home.
Shift before, top line with some great pressure and Benson was robbed.
Maksimov still with Esposito and Cave.
Kulevich with Bouchard.
Blah.
Lowe and Persson starting the game together – gives me hope we’ll see Sammy up with Bouchard.
Annual reminder:
Never
*clapping hands emoji*
Ever
*clapping hands emoji*
EVER
*clapping hands emoji*
Use GA
*clapping hands emoji*
(or its close relative on ice sv%)
*clapping hands emoji*
To evaluate
*clapping hands emoji*
Defensemen!
*clapping hands emoji*
***************************
Thank you, this has been a PSA from Your Local Unbearable Analytics Know-it-All ™
*wink*
I am deeply cynical about most things Oilers.
But I have always been a huge fan of Kailer.
I think he is a NHL player.
Appreciate your updates like this.
I was fine with either and actually just posted my thoughts on why they chose Yama.
I think its a speed/energy/broader range of skills conclusion.
Agreed.
As far as calling up Kailer over Benson, I think its a function of “style of play” and the fact that Yamamoto is a more energetic and tenacious player. His box cars throughout the season do not do his game justice. He was by far the best forward on the ice for either team last night – he set up Joe G. for a breakaway and Malone for a tap in – both missed. He drew three penalties in the 1st period. He plays PK1 and does an effective job. His game has developed in to much more than box cars and his box cars would be much better if he played with better finishers (he plays with Malone and Joe G – good AHL players but not the most skilled finishers).
We’ll see how his game translates to the NHL level – he could be back in the AHL in two weeks or, perhaps, he finds a role on a middle six energy line or even fits in on a primary skill line – playing with better skill in the NHL often leads to these types of forwards having better NHL numbers than AHL numbers.
Looking forward to Tuesday.
Skinner to start tonight – both ends of the back to back.
Not surprisingly the call-up (Hebig) and place-downs (Granlud/Manning) not in the lineup.
Peluso is in for Kailer – not sure who moves up the lineup for Willie and Kailer (hope its Sammy and Maksimov but assume its Lowe and, hmmmm, Esposite or Stukel).
Of course, the game is not played within a data base or on a spreadsheet.
Its important to to know the science/math but its just as important to know to use it as a tool and a piece of information in the greater context of the sport and how the game actually plays out in reality which often does not strictly “follow the numbers”.
Hi Ricki
Just an early Happy New Year!
I am of the belief that we have options to replace Russel at a lower cap hit. I believe Lagesson has the ability to disrupt the cycle plus is a better outlet passer and defends the Ricki box at a lower cap hit. So while I understand your point I believe that we would be better served by moving on from Russel. I believe that Russel is a warrior but at this time with cap restraints the correct move, is to move Russel.
Ki
Ha!
I’m not sure if one is going to help more than the other, I was driving at perhaps it is about winning, still ‘assessing’. Hopefully faster than the last ‘assessment’.
Maybe a tradeski. or 3.
So make decisions based on things other than winning?
Surprised at Yamo over Benson, both based on their seasons to date and the fact that we already had fewer LWs even before Granlund was sent down. And if Draisailt is playing C, that’s even more true.
I’ve been wrong many many times before but I am sensing a trade.
I hope Lagesson actually sees game action this time – sit Russell or Jones to give him a couple games before Benning is back then make a decision.
Maybe not though – looking at the 5 on 5 lines, McMichael was moved up to 1LW and, obviously, Lavoie isn’t going to take Valeno’s center spot.
Lavoie was already practicing on PP1 today and, without Lafreniere and Valeno tomorrow, I wonder if he gets moved up the lineup at evens……..
OP
Nice to have you back. I value your comments. WAs worries others had offended you too much so you left.
How do you feel about Yamo vs Benson?
Strange but to me I feel these winters have too many right shots as it is…
Jimmy…aren’t you in the Philippines? Easy for you to dance naked in the streets. Here in Edmonton we would have to drink a bottle dry & run through the snow (albeit it is a nice day).
An astute move by Old Dutch would go a long way towards allaying the fears of Lowetidians.
Jimmy was saying yesterday that they need 2 players to become a decent team, some didn’t agree.
I find we look at other team’s rosters and if they are doing well that team is stacked, and the majority of Oiler players are awful. We also think that GM is a genius, their drafting impeccable.
And the next season or two it’s a different team, like clockwork. Remember the vaunted Detroit model? Now Holland is useless. Don’t read much about the mighty Lightning these days.
Surely the Oilers ice some replacement level players. Still, if we look at Connolly, why is he doing well? A 27 YO career .385 PPG player?
It’s context. DAily faceoff had him 2nd line with the skilled Trochek, on an established team with a set roster, and other really good forwards.
Plunk him on our team and I guarantee his season looks different, not that he wouldn’t help. If a team can keep amassing better players eventually the tipping point is reached, as with the Avs this season.
But one guy isn’t turning a team around. Not all of the underperforming OIlers are bad players, would recover on a better, established team.
If the Oilers found 2 more top 6 wingers, the balance on the team would be pushed quite a bit to the good. The worst forwards pushed off the roster, and the best of the worst having their skill concentrated.
Healthy Saad would change Nuge’s world.
Maybe they know what they have in Benson and aren’t sure about Mighty Mouse. Want to see him against NHL comp. Benson’s game is suited to the NHL as his draft card had hard to knock off puck, good edges, board play and puck protection as strengths.
Curious why they haven’t tried him up, maybe the dearth of bottom 6 C?
If he could help out Drai on line 2 that’s a free internal fix.
One reason I like Haas with Connor is strong side faceoffs. Especially if Leon isn’t on the line.
Unbelievable that Valeno got a one game suspension for this headbut:
https://twitter.com/tsn_sports/status/1211403247732371458?s=21