Working on a Building

by Lowetide

Bill James once wrote a wonderful piece on the Minnesota Twins during the early years of the WS team’s development. It was called “That was One Ugly Baby” and detailed a rotten season played by a plethora of youngsters who would one day bring glory to Minneapolis, led by an unassuming man named Tom Kelly as manager.

Summary: It didn’t look too good when those young kids arrived and kicked the ball all over the yard, but just a few years later the organization won it all. The emergence of Frank Viola, Kent Hrbek, Gary Gaetti and Tom Brunansky in 1982 gave the club an enormous lift, later aided by the addition of Kirby Puckett (1984) and some astute trade additions.

Point being it’s very difficult to identify the exact moment when a team turns true north. One of the things we can count is prospects who develop into actual NHL players.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Oilers recall Kailer Yamamoto and William Lagesson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘If I have another one in a short time, my career could be over’: Recent head injuries concerning Oilers’ Matt Benning
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers have actual problems; Connor McDavid’s defensive game is not among them
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers waive veterans Markus Granlund, Brandon Manning in Saturday shakeup
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We didn’t come with the mindset to play a hard game’: Poor preparation leaves Oilers coach steaming
  • Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ goaltending depth chart in need of talent injection
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ fleet centre prospect Ryan McLeod finding the range with the Bakersfield Condors
  • Jonathan Willis: Leon Draisaitl is struggling badly, even as the Oilers’ depth forwards seem to be coming around
  • Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Lias Andersson in trade?
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanBroken toes, holiday-time hospital visits and memories of home: A week in the life of Oscar Klefbom, the Oilers’ do-everything defenceman
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanGrasping Mike Smith, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers’ recent plight by reading between the lines
  • Lowetide: As Oilers’ auditions of fringe forwards nears conclusion, it’s time for Condors’ top prospects to force the issue
  • Lowetide: The key missing element to the Oilers’ brilliant top line
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We called him ‘The Crane”: Teammates and coaches reveal their best Connor McDavid stories
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS

I do a ‘reasonable expectations’ series every August-September, it’s my best guess about how things are going to go in the coming season. I pegged the Oilers to finish with 88 points, their overall goal differential at 239-250 (it’s at 116-128 currently). I had Connor McDavid scoring 48 goals and 116 points, Leon getting 93 points. James Neal? 18 goals.

You know what I didn’t have? And this is the part where the 1982 Minnesota Twins come in. I didn’t have Ethan Bear scoring 12 points in 41 games, playing like a veteran. That’s an important piece to this season’s story. If Edmonton can add Bear and a couple of others from the ‘not sure’ pile, this season will have served a purpose. Now, making the playoffs is cooler, but credit where due the team gave Ethan Bear a chance to emerge and Evan Bouchard a chance to adjust. There’s value in these things.

ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS

Back in September, I counted 12 ‘actual’ NHL players. There were: McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Kassian, Neal, Chiasson, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Russell, Benning, Koskinen.

I also counted 12 ‘solid hopefuls’ on my RE roster, players who I projected to play more than 35+ games but had some uncertain elements. They were: Evan Bouchard, Joel Persson, Cooper Marody, Jujhar Khaira, Riley Sheahan, Sam Gagner, Markus Granlund, Gaetan Haas, Josh Archibald, Joakim Nygard, Caleb Jones, Mike Smith.

Finally, there were a group of 10 ‘distant hopefuls’ who I projected to play fewer than 35 games. The names included Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Tomas Jurco, Josh Currie, William Lagesson, Colby Cave, Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto, Patrick Russell and Shane Starrett.

Halfway through the season, the actual NHL players have mostly covered the bet, with injuries and slumps having some impact. The hopeful dozen have been a mixture of handbags and gladrags along the way. The distant hopefuls have gifted the roster Ethan Bear, Patrick Russell and possibly the two Sunday recalls (Yamamoto and Lagesson).

Lines and pairings via Wilde and I thank him. Condors won twice on the weekend and in doing so moved up to No. 5 in the AHL Pacific. The band (Benson-Marody-Currie) is back together, Evan Bouchard is playing better and Stuart Skinner stopped just enough shots two win the day. This team lacks the experience of last year’s blue and the steady goaltending of veteran Shane Starrett. I can’t wait to see the new lines and pairings with Manning and Granlund in the mix.

This is correct. It’s important to remember that Ken Holland has no attachment to any draft pick chosen before Philip Broberg. All of these kids are orphans. What’s more, Ken Holland is going to have a different grade on all the prospects. Some of the previous picks he might value more than Peter Chiarelli did, others less so.

I was genuinely surprised by the reaction to the Yamamoto recall. For me, it was basically a coin flip. Benson had the better numbers (my article at The Athletic from yesterday drills down) and the most improvement year over year. That said, Yamamoto’s offense has been improving lately (4-3-7 in his last eight games before recall) and he was the most dynamic player in Bakersfield. Benson (0-6-6 in his last three games) has been delivering more often but owns a different skill set. He’ll get his turn. For Oilers fans, we’re learning what Ken Holland values. The fact it doesn’t match your view, or the view of Peter Chiarelli, should come as no surprise.

As for YKOil’s idea, makes sense. If Brandon Saad is in play, ‘Hawks ask is likely to be young players and there would be a large contract going back (Saad is a $6 million hit). Maybe it’s Gagner and some dollars retained, something like that. I think Jones might be a more likely trade acquisition based on Chicago’s depth chart but that’s a guess.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back to shake off the Christmas rust and begin the quick climb to New Year’s. There’s a good chance we hit the air a little before 10, as the WJ game (Canada versus Germany) probably ends around 9:30. Show officially begins 10 this morning, TSN1260. Chris Meaney from The Athletic will talk NFL at 10:20, Guy Flaming from The Pipeline Show at 10:40 will talk WJ’s and Oil Kings. At 11, Jason Gregor talks Oilers, NFL playoffs and World Juniors. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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OriginalPouzar

Not to mention, while its great to have team prospects excel at this tournament, this small sample tournament has proven to not be a direct correlation to NHL success or lack thereof over the years.

HT Joe

texmex: Sweden has given up 5 even strength goals in the tournament, Broberg has been on for 4 of them?!?

Zegras leading the tourney in scoring.

Discuss

We hoped for the best…

texmex

OriginalPouzar:
SH goal for Broberg this morning.

Sweden has given up 5 even strength goals in the tournament, Broberg has been on for 4 of them?!?

Zegras leading the tourney in scoring.

Discuss

OriginalPouzar

SH goal for Broberg this morning.

knighttown

v4ance:
Real nice video breakdown of the Leaf’s new offensive tactics under Sheldon Keefe:

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/12/30/21041683/the-new-maple-leafs-offensive-system-could-change-the-nhl-for-the-better-sheldon-keefe

This kind of embedded video blog post reminds me of the best work of Tyler Dellow just before he got hired on by NHL teams.

What an amazing read. It really does feel like the Oilers are always a decade or two behind doesn’t it.

v4ance

Real nice video breakdown of the Leaf’s new offensive tactics under Sheldon Keefe:

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/12/30/21041683/the-new-maple-leafs-offensive-system-could-change-the-nhl-for-the-better-sheldon-keefe

This kind of embedded video blog post reminds me of the best work of Tyler Dellow just before he got hired on by NHL teams.

Johnny skid

Harpers Hair: Amazing how narratives develop amongst people who have no idea what they’re talking about.

this comment describes you well.

Harpers Hair

Scungilli Slushy: Plus skater is news to me, also a long time hockey observer.

WG posted a while back his struggles against good players, and that was on the Jets when they were good.

Could be worse, could be a lot better.

Given the fact I’m an Oilers only fan, I hope he’s top pairing all season long.

You may actually want to watch some Canucks games before passing judgement.

With Edler back he typically plays second pairing minutes and is doing fine.

The Hughes/Myers pairing is very good.

Who you play with makes a huge impact. In Winnipeg he was playing with Peg Leg Pete and friends.

2 goals and an assist last night.

Amazing how narratives develop amongst people who have no idea what they’re talking about.

Scungilli Slushy

Harpers Hair: None of this is true. Myers is a plus skater..at least a match for Nurse.

He also a much better passer than Nurse now and likely in the future.

Both struggle with defensive decision making which has been the book on Myers for years.

Plus skater is news to me, also a long time hockey observer.

WG posted a while back his struggles against good players, and that was on the Jets when they were good.

Could be worse, could be a lot better.

Given the fact I’m an Oilers only fan, I hope he’s top pairing all season long.

v4ance

Tampa trades 33 yr old forward Chris Mueller to the Ducks for 25 yr old LD Patrick Sieloff. Mostly an AHL trade but the funny stat line is Sieloff has 2 NHL games, has 2 goals, 2 PIM and is -1 for those 2 games.

Every NHL game Sieloff has gotten into, he’s scored. Every team should trade for him, insert him into the big club for one match and then pass him on.

knighttown

El Duderino: So do you mean slim chance, good chance, likely, probable, or certain?Non-zero is confusing, not at all straight forward. Why use it in place of simpler language?

I never really thought about it I guess? Non-zero is sort of a pseudo-intellectual way of saying “slim”…kind of. It’s nothing specific but implies hope.

“There’s a slim chance Bianca could beat Serena” sounds negative/realistic versus

“There’s a non-zero chance Bianca could beat Serena”, to me, implies the same odds but with optimism.

Not sure where I picked it up but assumed it was pretty common.

Anyway, I feel Kreider will cost more but there’s some hope Kassian would end up being the better asset.

ArmchairGM

Woodguy v2.0: Seeing the number responses to you saying the same thing the issue is in your wording and not everyone’s understanding.

Or,

“No, it’s the children who are wrong” – Seymour Skinner

No, read what I actually wrote. You’re smart enough, just take the time to read it.

“The number of responses…” just you and 1 other guy misunderstood, and he was caught up in the heat of sparing with several people at once.

OriginalPouzar

Coach’s update on Starrett: Similar spot – managing this lower body muscular injury. Its a day to day situation. Its fluid. He’s feeling better.

OriginalPouzar

Thought college hockey was off until New Year but there are some limited games going on.

Brind’Amour with an assist through two game – plus 1 in each game.

OriginalPouzar

I wonder if Kailer will get an PK time tomorrow?

He’s been PK1 for a while in the Bake and has done a very good job.

With Granlund off the roster and P. Russell not slated to play, he may get some third pairing time, if needed.

I don’t think he’ll get much PK time right away but its a skill that will help him stay in the NHL, if he can translate his PK ability to the next level.

Oz

https://streamable.com/imua5
Wilde
Last night I posted that KY be left down for the season to develop his strength …… then he did this ?
That was a fine play, but I would have still preferred Benson as the call up

Harpers Hair

Woodguy v2.0: Still haven’t remembered to get any

You won’t regret it when you do.

Harpers Hair

pts2pndr: Myres doesn’t have the skating ability and we are in a league where speed is the new best skill. Nurse at 3/4 speed is faster than Myres. Speed allows better gap control and hence better D. Speed also allows the D to join the rush as required. Myrescould acquire the nick name pylon for the last third of his contract. They are not close to the same player in my opinion.

None of this is true. Myers is a plus skater..at least a match for Nurse.

He also a much better passer than Nurse now and likely in the future.

Both struggle with defensive decision making which has been the book on Myers for years.

Yukon Jerk

OriginalPouzar:
Haven’t ingested one in likely 5 plus years, however, please confirm we are speaking of legit cheezies, the hard/crunchy variety and not the terrible “cheezy poofs”……

Well one is a delicious, crunchy, salty, unhealthy treat.
The other is blasphemy and should not be spoken of

Yukon Jerk

Woodguy v2.0: Still haven’t remembered to get any

Alcohol affects the somethingorother in the brain

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Great photo of what 60 pounds weight and six inches height difference represents. It looks like a 15 year old kid playing in a men’s league by mistake. If KY is the prospect in a deal for Saad, I’m all over it.

OriginalPouzar

Haven’t ingested one in likely 5 plus years, however, please confirm we are speaking of legit cheezies, the hard/crunchy variety and not the terrible “cheezy poofs”……

El Duderino

knighttown: I don’t disagree.The challenge with acquiring this particular asset is that you simply don’t know.You could get 5th round value or you could get 1st round value.

Kassian has 26 points and Kreider has 24.Both are 29.

I expect that Kreider fetches significantly more at the deadline because at least the acquiring party knows what he’s getting.Kreider is Charlie Coyle.Safe, reliable, dependable.If he’s played in a similar role he should produce similar results.

In reality, there’s a non-zero chance that Kassian has more of an impact on a good team down the stretch and in the playoffs but will teams pay the price to find out?

So do you mean slim chance, good chance, likely, probable, or certain? Non-zero is confusing, not at all straight forward. Why use it in place of simpler language?

Woodguy v2.0

Harpers Hair:

But I would let go for a tumbler of Shelter Point.

Still haven’t remembered to get any

Woodguy v2.0

ArmchairGM: Again, I wasn’t defending paying Nurse $6.5M. Why is this so hard?

Seeing the number responses to you saying the same thing the issue is in your wording and not everyone’s understanding.

Or,

“No, it’s the children who are wrong” – Seymour Skinner

McSorley33

godot10: Nurse is not signing for term under $6 million.He will go the arbitration route to free agency.in two years.He can get in the fives in arbitration.

Exactly.

If people are expecting/wanting Nurse to sign for under 6 – they are going to be greatly disappointed.

The comp is Morrissey….and as someone else posted +/- 250k of that….

godot10

Scungilli Slushy: Nurse on term under 6 is perfect especially if there remains ability to trade him in a few years.

To me good players without excessive trade restrictions shouldn’t be hard to move if necessary, which is key. Only special players should get that, but it is a player’s league ATM.

Nurse is not signing for term under $6 million. He will go the arbitration route to free agency.in two years. He can get in the fives in arbitration.

godot10

Pechetr:
A lot of talk the last few days about moving Kassian on. Can someone please explain to me who keeps opponents honest against McDavid if this happens? The refs? Did we not see what happened to Calgary last year in the playoffs once the physicality ramps up? Did we all not envy the St Louis team that plays fast, skilled and heavy? Let’s trade one of our best skaters that happens to have good hands and a nasty side shall we? You think the cheap shots on McDavid will be better or worse after Kassian is gone? Just some “intangibles” to ponder.

Neither Kassian nor Lucic have ever protected McDavid. McDavid gets slashed on the hands all the time. I don’t see Kassian doing any protecting.

godot10

Jethro Tull:
Writing’s on the wall for Benson. Perfect opportunity to bring him up was when Kass and Nuge were injured. Now he’s passed for Yamamoto, who has inferior numbers at the AHL level.

This was done by a GM lauded for his willingness to leave players in the smalls until he deemed them ready. So take from that what you will.

So we’re trying to compelt Bowman to gives us Saad for our dross? Usual day at the office here, then.

Nurse needs signing or trading – the maturation of the good D prospects, which is a strange problem for the Oilers to have, drives this.I firmly believe some of those prospects may turn out to be better players than Nurse.

Log jam in the D prospects means for once we actually may be able to deal for need from strength.

First year NHL defensemen are not ready for top 4 duty 95% of the time. Klefbom’s contract will have expired and the OIlers will be over a 3rd through his next contract before the prospects are ready for top 4 duty, unless the Oilers are freaky lucky.

Neither Samorukov or Bouchard look like phenoms at the AHL level. So development will not be quick. Fast arrivers announce themselves quickly. Bear was up in his first season, dragged Lowe to respectability as year, and went boom in his 3rd year.

So two years for Bouchard, and three for Samorukov, and at least a couple for Broberg.

pts2pndr

meanashell11: I love Cheezies.

Whenever I am out west (live in CT now) my wife makes me bring back bags of Cheezies. The border patrol always laugh when they check my carry on, stuffed to the gunnel with bags of Cheezies!

When I was living in LA it was coffee crisps.

pts2pndr

Dicky94:
Pechetr,

It’s happening to the Jets right now too.No one to keep the peace. If Kassian is traded I hope another younger loose cannon who can play the game is coming back.

Kassian has just the right amount of crazy to make him hard to replace.

pts2pndr

godot10: Myers contract is for declining years.Nurse’s contract is for prime years.

Myres doesn’t have the skating ability and we are in a league where speed is the new best skill. Nurse at 3/4 speed is faster than Myres. Speed allows better gap control and hence better D. Speed also allows the D to join the rush as required. Myres could acquire the nick name pylon for the last third of his contract. They are not close to the same player in my opinion.

Dicky94

OriginalPouzar,

I see a 1 in there!

Dicky94

Pechetr,

It’s happening to the Jets right now too. No one to keep the peace. If Kassian is traded I hope another younger loose cannon who can play the game is coming back.

pts2pndr

Ben:
Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

See my last about the Ellis/Morrissey/Myers contracts. There’s no need to “risk” 6.5M on this player when better players are currently signing cheaper max deals.

Not sure what an ‘objectively’ fair number looks like for Nurse, but it should probably start with a 5.

You would be correct if the team had not decided to go the cheap route when he came off his entry level deal. The contract cost automatically goes up for better players when you start to buy free agent years. Nurse should have been locked up for eight years coming off his entry level deal just like the team did with Klefbom. That was an opportunity missed. It seemed stupid signing Nuge, Hall and Eberle to six million dollar deals right out of their entry deals but one turned out to be a great deal for the team (Hall), one turned out to be fair market (Nuge) and one turned out one might argue to be a slight overpay (Eberle). Once a player gets arbitration rights you pay market value or greater for long term deals or risk the player going to free agency.

BONE207

godot10:
I wonder if Kris Russell had Chicago on his no trade list.

Russell and Manning/Gagner plus a prospect Chicago likes (not Bouchard or Broberg or Samourukov) for Saad would make a lot of sense for both teams.

GordieHoweHatTrick:

The best moves for trades at the moment are Russell and one of Jones/Lagesson. I think Jones has highest trade value of the 3. Russell could be a possibility at the trade deadline or over the summer.

Harpers Hair: If that is accurate you need to examine which of those teams might need or want Russell.

OriginalPouzar:

This works MUCH better for the Oil if its Russell as oppossed to Manning as the can’t fit Sadd in next year right now (assuming a Nurse re-sign) without letting Kass go and/or buying out Neal (which is not a great result).

As the unofficial spokesman for Ricki The Bear, I find all this talk as lunacy.

He has unearthed all the data that was buried by Verdink, the dog, & showed that Kris Russell has like .37 EVGA/60 or just about zero!!! The damn guy will take away all the shot attempts from open hole if he doesn’t outright block them altogether. Trading away KR would put the Oilers into a hole that they’ll never get out of…wait, I hear something stirring in the cave behind me. Time to go…

Scungilli Slushy

Harpers Hair: Nothing exceeds like excess.

Love the gray areas.

Harpers Hair

meanashell11: I love Cheezies.

Whenever I am out west (live in CT now) my wife makes me bring back bags of Cheezies. The border patrol always laugh when they check my carry on, stuffed to the gunnel with bags of Cheezies!

Nothing exceeds like excess.

meanashell11

Harpers Hair: I hate Cheezies…always have.

But I would let go for a tumbler of Shelter Point.

I love Cheezies.

Whenever I am out west (live in CT now) my wife makes me bring back bags of Cheezies. The border patrol always laugh when they check my carry on, stuffed to the gunnel with bags of Cheezies!

Scungilli Slushy

Draft picks are important, but given the known established rates of having any NHL success, let alone a high end career, I only value first round picks as gold.

If things can be improved using 2nd round and later picks I’m all in. Which is why I’m a hard core seller if there is any doubt about playoffs

The ‘let the guys try’ mantra is wrong and from the previous regime. For me after the team has had half a season with a respectful calm and reasonable coach and calm respectful GM, any hard decisions should not be received in the wrong way. Piss or get off the pot.

They’ll be fine with that.

Harpers Hair

BONE207:
WG: DSF could hang a wet towel on his excitement.

His excitement would have both of his hands around it if the canucks get to the playoffs. The only time he would let go is if there are cheezies in the room.

I hate Cheezies…always have.

But I would let go for a tumbler of Shelter Point.

OriginalPouzar

drglen:

Is therea chance he calls up McLeod before Benson? maybe.

There is about a 0.0000001% chance of McLeod seeing the NHL this season, in my opinion.

Scungilli Slushy

I’ve been concerned about Nuge this season. Not looking very effective. He’s hurting we think.

His PPG is under career norms, but similar to his other lower scoring seasons. His SH% is also down as in other lower seasons.

Less concerned now. I wonder if a healthy C might not be better ATM. Get Nuge healed up.

It’s a hard decision but would the results be worse using healthier and more fresh players for a bit if things aren’t working now?

BONE207

WG: DSF could hang a wet towel on his excitement.

His excitement would have both of his hands around it if the canucks get to the playoffs. The only time he would let go is if there are cheezies in the room.

OriginalPouzar

Ben: Klef’s CF is a little off this year, but career-wise is superior to Nurse’s. Over 50% through a bunch of *incredibly* lean years. And do you truly think McDavid On is a more important metric for this team than off in assessing Dmen?

I like Nurse fine. But he can’t pass the puck. Maybe he doesn’t have to if he’s on with McDavid who can control zone entry himself. But it’s a huge problem if you’re going to have him on the ice for 22 mintues a game. (Klef consistently plays 3 minutes more than him per game, btw. Why do you think that is?)

I don’t even think Klef is *that* great with the puck, but passing is such a criticial skill deficit in the d-corps (none of Russell, Larsson, Nurse can execute a consistent headman pass) that he stands out.

Again—Nurse is fine. But the numbers being discussed ($6.5M is the 18th richest D contract in the whole league) slot him waaaaayyy too high in the lineup.

I’m not really here to join the conversation (although I do agree that Klefbom is the more important d-man to this team) but I did want to answer the question re: 3 min TOI difference which, I believe, is mostly PP TOI.

Scungilli Slushy

GordieHoweHatTrick: OK. I see we may not be far apart then in thinking where Nurse slots on a good team and reasonable value for his contract. I had posted this a week ago…
“Nurse: prefer 6 years @ $33M (~$5.5M AAV) but if that isn’t going to work, shorter term with a bit more, e.g., 4 years @ $24M (~$6M AAV).” which seems in the ball park of your estimations as well…

Nurse on term under 6 is perfect especially if there remains ability to trade him in a few years.

To me good players without excessive trade restrictions shouldn’t be hard to move if necessary, which is key. Only special players should get that, but it is a player’s league ATM.

Scungilli Slushy

ArmchairGM:
Don’t look now (ok, go ahead and look), but Marco Rossi is now tied with Kaliyev in the OHL points race, with 7 (!) games in hand. He’s 5 points ahead of Byfield with 4 games in hand… his ~63 NHLe is within spitting distance of where McDavid’s was in his draft year.

Wow. And this guy could well be available when the Oilers pick.

If he’s up can’t make another DeBrincat.

Scungilli Slushy

Caught a bit of Oilers vs Pens ‘86.

Nurse reminds me of Steve Smith. A lot.