Bill James once wrote a wonderful piece on the Minnesota Twins during the early years of the WS team’s development. It was called “That was One Ugly Baby” and detailed a rotten season played by a plethora of youngsters who would one day bring glory to Minneapolis, led by an unassuming man named Tom Kelly as manager.
Summary: It didn’t look too good when those young kids arrived and kicked the ball all over the yard, but just a few years later the organization won it all. The emergence of Frank Viola, Kent Hrbek, Gary Gaetti and Tom Brunansky in 1982 gave the club an enormous lift, later aided by the addition of Kirby Puckett (1984) and some astute trade additions.
Point being it’s very difficult to identify the exact moment when a team turns true north. One of the things we can count is prospects who develop into actual NHL players.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Oilers recall Kailer Yamamoto and William Lagesson
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘If I have another one in a short time, my career could be over’: Recent head injuries concerning Oilers’ Matt Benning
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers have actual problems; Connor McDavid’s defensive game is not among them
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers waive veterans Markus Granlund, Brandon Manning in Saturday shakeup
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We didn’t come with the mindset to play a hard game’: Poor preparation leaves Oilers coach steaming
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ goaltending depth chart in need of talent injection
- Lowetide: Oilers’ fleet centre prospect Ryan McLeod finding the range with the Bakersfield Condors
- Jonathan Willis: Leon Draisaitl is struggling badly, even as the Oilers’ depth forwards seem to be coming around
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers pursue Lias Andersson in trade?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Broken toes, holiday-time hospital visits and memories of home: A week in the life of Oscar Klefbom, the Oilers’ do-everything defenceman
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Grasping Mike Smith, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers’ recent plight by reading between the lines
- Lowetide: As Oilers’ auditions of fringe forwards nears conclusion, it’s time for Condors’ top prospects to force the issue
- Lowetide: The key missing element to the Oilers’ brilliant top line
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We called him ‘The Crane”: Teammates and coaches reveal their best Connor McDavid stories
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS
I do a ‘reasonable expectations’ series every August-September, it’s my best guess about how things are going to go in the coming season. I pegged the Oilers to finish with 88 points, their overall goal differential at 239-250 (it’s at 116-128 currently). I had Connor McDavid scoring 48 goals and 116 points, Leon getting 93 points. James Neal? 18 goals.
You know what I didn’t have? And this is the part where the 1982 Minnesota Twins come in. I didn’t have Ethan Bear scoring 12 points in 41 games, playing like a veteran. That’s an important piece to this season’s story. If Edmonton can add Bear and a couple of others from the ‘not sure’ pile, this season will have served a purpose. Now, making the playoffs is cooler, but credit where due the team gave Ethan Bear a chance to emerge and Evan Bouchard a chance to adjust. There’s value in these things.
ACTUAL NHL PLAYERS
Back in September, I counted 12 ‘actual’ NHL players. There were: McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Kassian, Neal, Chiasson, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Russell, Benning, Koskinen.
I also counted 12 ‘solid hopefuls’ on my RE roster, players who I projected to play more than 35+ games but had some uncertain elements. They were: Evan Bouchard, Joel Persson, Cooper Marody, Jujhar Khaira, Riley Sheahan, Sam Gagner, Markus Granlund, Gaetan Haas, Josh Archibald, Joakim Nygard, Caleb Jones, Mike Smith.
Finally, there were a group of 10 ‘distant hopefuls’ who I projected to play fewer than 35 games. The names included Tyler Benson, Joe Gambardella, Tomas Jurco, Josh Currie, William Lagesson, Colby Cave, Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto, Patrick Russell and Shane Starrett.
Halfway through the season, the actual NHL players have mostly covered the bet, with injuries and slumps having some impact. The hopeful dozen have been a mixture of handbags and gladrags along the way. The distant hopefuls have gifted the roster Ethan Bear, Patrick Russell and possibly the two Sunday recalls (Yamamoto and Lagesson).
Lines and pairings via Wilde and I thank him. Condors won twice on the weekend and in doing so moved up to No. 5 in the AHL Pacific. The band (Benson-Marody-Currie) is back together, Evan Bouchard is playing better and Stuart Skinner stopped just enough shots two win the day. This team lacks the experience of last year’s blue and the steady goaltending of veteran Shane Starrett. I can’t wait to see the new lines and pairings with Manning and Granlund in the mix.
This is correct. It’s important to remember that Ken Holland has no attachment to any draft pick chosen before Philip Broberg. All of these kids are orphans. What’s more, Ken Holland is going to have a different grade on all the prospects. Some of the previous picks he might value more than Peter Chiarelli did, others less so.
I was genuinely surprised by the reaction to the Yamamoto recall. For me, it was basically a coin flip. Benson had the better numbers (my article at The Athletic from yesterday drills down) and the most improvement year over year. That said, Yamamoto’s offense has been improving lately (4-3-7 in his last eight games before recall) and he was the most dynamic player in Bakersfield. Benson (0-6-6 in his last three games) has been delivering more often but owns a different skill set. He’ll get his turn. For Oilers fans, we’re learning what Ken Holland values. The fact it doesn’t match your view, or the view of Peter Chiarelli, should come as no surprise.
As for YKOil’s idea, makes sense. If Brandon Saad is in play, ‘Hawks ask is likely to be young players and there would be a large contract going back (Saad is a $6 million hit). Maybe it’s Gagner and some dollars retained, something like that. I think Jones might be a more likely trade acquisition based on Chicago’s depth chart but that’s a guess.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We’re back to shake off the Christmas rust and begin the quick climb to New Year’s. There’s a good chance we hit the air a little before 10, as the WJ game (Canada versus Germany) probably ends around 9:30. Show officially begins 10 this morning, TSN1260. Chris Meaney from The Athletic will talk NFL at 10:20, Guy Flaming from The Pipeline Show at 10:40 will talk WJ’s and Oil Kings. At 11, Jason Gregor talks Oilers, NFL playoffs and World Juniors. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Not to mention, while its great to have team prospects excel at this tournament, this small sample tournament has proven to not be a direct correlation to NHL success or lack thereof over the years.
I think he’s playing a very big role for a player at 18. Lots of PK time, top 4D at evens last I checked. A player like Sandin, who is 15 months older and playing a feature role, looks more impressive because he’s more mature and getting PP time. I know it’s ‘crap on Broberg’ time, but would encourage people to remember it’s a small sample and that he’s playing a lot of minutes without easy PP time.
We hoped for the best…
New for The Athletic: Midseason review of ‘reasonable expectations’ shows Oilers are on track with preseason targets
https://theathletic.com/1484524/2019/12/31/lowetide-midseason-review-of-reasonable-expectations-shows-oilers-are-on-track-with-preseason-targets/
Sweden has given up 5 even strength goals in the tournament, Broberg has been on for 4 of them?!?
Zegras leading the tourney in scoring.
Discuss
SH goal for Broberg this morning.
What an amazing read. It really does feel like the Oilers are always a decade or two behind doesn’t it.
Real nice video breakdown of the Leaf’s new offensive tactics under Sheldon Keefe:
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/12/30/21041683/the-new-maple-leafs-offensive-system-could-change-the-nhl-for-the-better-sheldon-keefe
This kind of embedded video blog post reminds me of the best work of Tyler Dellow just before he got hired on by NHL teams.
this comment describes you well.
You may actually want to watch some Canucks games before passing judgement.
With Edler back he typically plays second pairing minutes and is doing fine.
The Hughes/Myers pairing is very good.
Who you play with makes a huge impact. In Winnipeg he was playing with Peg Leg Pete and friends.
2 goals and an assist last night.
Amazing how narratives develop amongst people who have no idea what they’re talking about.
Plus skater is news to me, also a long time hockey observer.
WG posted a while back his struggles against good players, and that was on the Jets when they were good.
Could be worse, could be a lot better.
Given the fact I’m an Oilers only fan, I hope he’s top pairing all season long.
Tampa trades 33 yr old forward Chris Mueller to the Ducks for 25 yr old LD Patrick Sieloff. Mostly an AHL trade but the funny stat line is Sieloff has 2 NHL games, has 2 goals, 2 PIM and is -1 for those 2 games.
Every NHL game Sieloff has gotten into, he’s scored. Every team should trade for him, insert him into the big club for one match and then pass him on.
I never really thought about it I guess? Non-zero is sort of a pseudo-intellectual way of saying “slim”…kind of. It’s nothing specific but implies hope.
“There’s a slim chance Bianca could beat Serena” sounds negative/realistic versus
“There’s a non-zero chance Bianca could beat Serena”, to me, implies the same odds but with optimism.
Not sure where I picked it up but assumed it was pretty common.
Anyway, I feel Kreider will cost more but there’s some hope Kassian would end up being the better asset.
No, read what I actually wrote. You’re smart enough, just take the time to read it.
“The number of responses…” just you and 1 other guy misunderstood, and he was caught up in the heat of sparing with several people at once.
Coach’s update on Starrett: Similar spot – managing this lower body muscular injury. Its a day to day situation. Its fluid. He’s feeling better.
Thought college hockey was off until New Year but there are some limited games going on.
Brind’Amour with an assist through two game – plus 1 in each game.
I wonder if Kailer will get an PK time tomorrow?
He’s been PK1 for a while in the Bake and has done a very good job.
With Granlund off the roster and P. Russell not slated to play, he may get some third pairing time, if needed.
I don’t think he’ll get much PK time right away but its a skill that will help him stay in the NHL, if he can translate his PK ability to the next level.
https://streamable.com/imua5
Wilde
Last night I posted that KY be left down for the season to develop his strength …… then he did this ?
That was a fine play, but I would have still preferred Benson as the call up
You won’t regret it when you do.
None of this is true. Myers is a plus skater..at least a match for Nurse.
He also a much better passer than Nurse now and likely in the future.
Both struggle with defensive decision making which has been the book on Myers for years.
Well one is a delicious, crunchy, salty, unhealthy treat.
The other is blasphemy and should not be spoken of
Alcohol affects the somethingorother in the brain
Great photo of what 60 pounds weight and six inches height difference represents. It looks like a 15 year old kid playing in a men’s league by mistake. If KY is the prospect in a deal for Saad, I’m all over it.
Haven’t ingested one in likely 5 plus years, however, please confirm we are speaking of legit cheezies, the hard/crunchy variety and not the terrible “cheezy poofs”……
So do you mean slim chance, good chance, likely, probable, or certain? Non-zero is confusing, not at all straight forward. Why use it in place of simpler language?
Still haven’t remembered to get any
Seeing the number responses to you saying the same thing the issue is in your wording and not everyone’s understanding.
Or,
“No, it’s the children who are wrong” – Seymour Skinner
Exactly.
If people are expecting/wanting Nurse to sign for under 6 – they are going to be greatly disappointed.
The comp is Morrissey….and as someone else posted +/- 250k of that….
Nurse is not signing for term under $6 million. He will go the arbitration route to free agency.in two years. He can get in the fives in arbitration.
Neither Kassian nor Lucic have ever protected McDavid. McDavid gets slashed on the hands all the time. I don’t see Kassian doing any protecting.
First year NHL defensemen are not ready for top 4 duty 95% of the time. Klefbom’s contract will have expired and the OIlers will be over a 3rd through his next contract before the prospects are ready for top 4 duty, unless the Oilers are freaky lucky.
Neither Samorukov or Bouchard look like phenoms at the AHL level. So development will not be quick. Fast arrivers announce themselves quickly. Bear was up in his first season, dragged Lowe to respectability as year, and went boom in his 3rd year.
So two years for Bouchard, and three for Samorukov, and at least a couple for Broberg.
When I was living in LA it was coffee crisps.
Kassian has just the right amount of crazy to make him hard to replace.
Myres doesn’t have the skating ability and we are in a league where speed is the new best skill. Nurse at 3/4 speed is faster than Myres. Speed allows better gap control and hence better D. Speed also allows the D to join the rush as required. Myres could acquire the nick name pylon for the last third of his contract. They are not close to the same player in my opinion.
OriginalPouzar,
I see a 1 in there!
Pechetr,
It’s happening to the Jets right now too. No one to keep the peace. If Kassian is traded I hope another younger loose cannon who can play the game is coming back.
You would be correct if the team had not decided to go the cheap route when he came off his entry level deal. The contract cost automatically goes up for better players when you start to buy free agent years. Nurse should have been locked up for eight years coming off his entry level deal just like the team did with Klefbom. That was an opportunity missed. It seemed stupid signing Nuge, Hall and Eberle to six million dollar deals right out of their entry deals but one turned out to be a great deal for the team (Hall), one turned out to be fair market (Nuge) and one turned out one might argue to be a slight overpay (Eberle). Once a player gets arbitration rights you pay market value or greater for long term deals or risk the player going to free agency.
As the unofficial spokesman for Ricki The Bear, I find all this talk as lunacy.
He has unearthed all the data that was buried by Verdink, the dog, & showed that Kris Russell has like .37 EVGA/60 or just about zero!!! The damn guy will take away all the shot attempts from open hole if he doesn’t outright block them altogether. Trading away KR would put the Oilers into a hole that they’ll never get out of…wait, I hear something stirring in the cave behind me. Time to go…
Love the gray areas.
Nothing exceeds like excess.
I love Cheezies.
Whenever I am out west (live in CT now) my wife makes me bring back bags of Cheezies. The border patrol always laugh when they check my carry on, stuffed to the gunnel with bags of Cheezies!
Draft picks are important, but given the known established rates of having any NHL success, let alone a high end career, I only value first round picks as gold.
If things can be improved using 2nd round and later picks I’m all in. Which is why I’m a hard core seller if there is any doubt about playoffs
The ‘let the guys try’ mantra is wrong and from the previous regime. For me after the team has had half a season with a respectful calm and reasonable coach and calm respectful GM, any hard decisions should not be received in the wrong way. Piss or get off the pot.
They’ll be fine with that.
I hate Cheezies…always have.
But I would let go for a tumbler of Shelter Point.
There is about a 0.0000001% chance of McLeod seeing the NHL this season, in my opinion.
I’ve been concerned about Nuge this season. Not looking very effective. He’s hurting we think.
His PPG is under career norms, but similar to his other lower scoring seasons. His SH% is also down as in other lower seasons.
Less concerned now. I wonder if a healthy C might not be better ATM. Get Nuge healed up.
It’s a hard decision but would the results be worse using healthier and more fresh players for a bit if things aren’t working now?
WG: DSF could hang a wet towel on his excitement.
His excitement would have both of his hands around it if the canucks get to the playoffs. The only time he would let go is if there are cheezies in the room.
I’m not really here to join the conversation (although I do agree that Klefbom is the more important d-man to this team) but I did want to answer the question re: 3 min TOI difference which, I believe, is mostly PP TOI.
Nurse on term under 6 is perfect especially if there remains ability to trade him in a few years.
To me good players without excessive trade restrictions shouldn’t be hard to move if necessary, which is key. Only special players should get that, but it is a player’s league ATM.
If he’s up can’t make another DeBrincat.
Caught a bit of Oilers vs Pens ‘86.
Nurse reminds me of Steve Smith. A lot.