Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is starting to post crooked numbers in five on five scoring. Oilers badly need him to deliver at career average levels. Despite being a No. 1 overall selection, posting crooked numbers in the discipline has never been his jam.
He has never posted 2.00 per 60 scoring at five on five in any season, but his average, and playing against great players mind, is 1.65 per 60. This season, he’s at 1.16/60 and that’s after scoring two goals in the last three games. Edmonton needs you, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: A shift-by-shift analysis of Kailer Yamamoto’s 2019-20 debut in the Oilers’ New Year’s Eve game.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: James Neal puts on New Year’s Eve show to remember in Oilers’ thriller
- Lowetide: Midseason review of ‘reasonable expectations’ shows Oilers are on track with preseason targets
- Jonathan Willis and Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How are our Oilers predictions holding up at the midseason mark? We decided to find out
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers midseason report card shows an unbalanced team with a lot of replaceable parts
- Lowetide: Oilers recall Kailer Yamamoto and William Lagesson
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘If I have another one in a short time, my career could be over’: Recent head injuries concerning Oilers’ Matt Benning
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers have actual problems; Connor McDavid’s defensive game is not among them
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We didn’t come with the mindset to play a hard game’: Poor preparation leaves Oilers coach steaming
- Jonathan Willis: Leon Draisaitl is struggling badly, even as the Oilers’ depth forwards seem to be coming around
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 43 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 17-23-3, 37 points; goal differential -23
- Oilers in 2016-17: 21-15-7, 49 points; goal differential +3
- Oilers in 2017-18: 18-22-3, 39 points; goal differential -24
- Oilers in 2018-19: 20-20-3, 43 points; goal differential -11
- Oilers in 2019-20: 21-17-4, 46 points; goal differential -7
A win tonight and the Oilers will touch greatness, or, well, the best team of the McDavid era. Still worried about the goal differential but the standings points can’t be taken away. Entering tonight, Edmonton is on a pace that would land them 90 points. That isn’t going to be enough to make a typical postseason.
OILERS IN JANUARY
- Oilers in January 2016: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in January 2017: 0-1-0, no points; goal differential -2
- Oilers in January 2018: 0-1-0, no points; goal differential -5
- Oilers in January 2019: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +1
- Oilers in January 2020: TBD
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- On the road to: BUF, BOS, TOR, MTL, CAL (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: NAS, ARI, CAL, STL (Expected 1-2-1)
- Overall expected result: 3-4-2, eight points in nine games
- Current results: 0-0-0
I see possible points in Buffalo, Montreal and Calgary on the road (Oilers play well there) and believe the team will show well against everyone but St. Louis at home.
ROOKIE BLUE
I’ve been thinking lately about the Oilers’ rookies this season. They are all defensemen, and we might be looking at an impressive one-position crop. Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and Joel Persson have all played some, William Lagesson has now played an NHL game and at some point Evan Bouchard may also get into some games this year. That’s a large group for one season.
It got me thinking about single seasons and one position impact. Here are some that I noticed from Oilers history:
1980-81: Wingers Jari Kurri and Glenn Anderson; Defensemen Paul Coffey and Charlie Huddy.
1981-82: Goalies Grant Fuhr and Andy Moog both qualified under NHL rules.
1995-96: Wingers Miro Satan and Ryan Smyth.
2010-11: Wingers Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall
Maybe we’ll have a group of defensemen from 2019-20 join this group in the years ahead.
OSCAR
No word on Klefbom as I write this, Jonathan Willis is in Buffalo for The Athletic so follow him on twitter for updates. Huge possible impact on the January games. Even contemplating the pairings (Nurse-Bear, Jones-Larsson, Russell-Benning?) is a frightening idea. He is one of three blue who have played over 200 minutes against elites at five on five this season, according to Puck IQ.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
We are back, starting at 10, TSN1260. Lots of World Juniors and Oilers talk, with Bruce McCurdy (10:20) from the Cult of Hockey and Frank Seravalli (11am) from TSN chiming in. Your comments welcome at 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
GordieHoweHatTrick,
Nice story about McDavidmania.
Please post more. Your writing is top notch.
rickithebear,
That $1.4M buried with Manning and Granlund sent down will help pay for a rental at the deadline.
Cap Friendly estimates our deadline cap space at $4.4M, less if Smith reaches his bonuses.
Since Benning is on regular IR, his cap hit is already included.
rickithebear,
My point was that I only care about my own spelling, what others are doing doesn’t really bother me, so all my hate is directed towards myself…
Bling:
benson step forward this y!
He is skating Faster?
Once again, when dealing with computers their are multiple English ( not a language but a digion) dialect spell checks.
Digion are an amalgum (am) of multiple language bases and interspersed with multiple centuries of new words of common man tongue from diffrent countries of multiple language origions.
Under Social justice Warrior doctrine.
Correcting ones spelling ( English dialect) is an act of hate!
Stop the hate!?
Correcting spelling of digions varying dialects is opinion.
Thanks! I doubt we made the TV but one of our cute little signs was on the big screen in the building.
I am too young to have witnessed beatle mania, but the biggest take away from the game for me last night was McDavid mania! I realize we are across the river from his junior team and a relatively short drive from his hometown where peons like us can afford to see a NHL game as a family once a year but WOW!!! What a following of young and old out to cheer for McDavid!! Fantastic. During the warm up the entire Oiler zone was plastered with home made posters and kids pressed up against the glass to watch for their hero!!.
I was around for Gretzky mania but I don’t remember it being like this, maybe cause I did not see away games….
As for the hockey…. tough loss. They came out flying then either got complacent or Krueger made some adjustments. It was hard for me to focus on strategy and game details while having commentary with the kids during the game.
I would be okay seeing that line up again next game with maybe a few minor adjustments. Maybe time for P Russell to get back in and sit Chiasson. Laggesson needs to get a few games in a row before I can form an opinion of where he is at against NHL players. Seems a little tentative at the moment but that can be expected. Larson was very mindful of playing with the rookie and was maybe trying to overcompensate a bit too much. But that was not a difference maker in the outcome…
Smith almost gives me a coronary every time he plays the puck. He made some nice saves through traffic Controlling the rebound but moved Way too far back too quickly on the penalty shot.
You need 2 GAA or less in all 4 series wins to be the 2 teams who win the 3 championships.
Winning about not scoring 4 gf per game is fucking stupid hockey analytics.
We gave up 2 ga in 60 min last night.
All I ask from our defence.
I have no problem with either Reg min ga.
A Corsi directed to the net that became a pass when it became a tipped ( becoming a Corsi) open shot.
The other goaL
Was path to net cut off by Lagesson and Strong around the net play pressured by Larsson resulting in an open shot.
Can hardly wait for Benning to return.
Wish they would have kept up Manning, the dman who continues to generate top 10 Open HD sh reduction def pairs with top homeplate dmen.
Thanks. I just hate to misspell and make grammatical errors. I don’t care when others do it or if it’s due to the limitations of the smartphone. Perfectionism is a bitch.
Yeah if Höglander can defend adequately at the NHL level he should at the very least have a career as a third line PP expert.
Your posts are like money from home. Keep up the great work.
Can’t edit the mess that is my posts. I blame my phone. And Woodguy’s phone as well.
Maybe you don’t notice but OP is one of those perfectionist types who construct everything perfectly in the universe they reside in. It’s patently impossible for him, in his own eyes to be wrong. Ever.
SwedishPoster,
Interesting. I think Hoglander if nothing else could have a future as a half-wall man on the PP. his puck control along the boards was impressive. Agreed on Broberg, he had his moments, and some of it was game state, but he didn’t wow me often, but the one rush that he setup a few games ago showed his speed well. His PK against Finland was also pretty good i thought. Thanks for the context on his D partner, I don’t have background on them.
Just passing through the home of the Pardubice Primce himself just now.
geowal,
Broberg has been ok but not great I’d say, had a terrible game against the Kazaks and played his best late against Finland which is also the only game where Sweden needed a push. He had his most completely game in the QF. Very interested to see how he does against the russians, so far he seems to bring it when needed and otherwise pretty quiet while maybe trying to be a bit to fancy at times. If this theory is to hold he needs to be beasting it against Russia as I think the russians are clear favourites. Sweden is a one line team with some Holtz-Raymond sprinkle but Henriksson isn’t s good enough center yet for the line to be truly frightening against better teams. Poor Berggren is stone alone on the third line.
I was hoping for Broberg to take charge a bit more but I cut him some slack because he’s had to carry around Björnfot who was probably Sweden’s worst player during the group stage(though he played better against the Czechs so maybe he’s turning it up for the big games as well) and he did it on his off side.
Höglander has been great though I’m not surprised that line is tearing it up against junior players, they are all battle tested with at least 1+ seasons in the SHL/NHL. That Höglander can toy with junior players has never been in question, with him the concern is whether he can bring consistent offense against pros, in particular 5v5. Will he be able yo create room to use his skill and creativity? He looks much improved in the SHL this season but he can still be kept out of games a bit to easy. Still young and I think I’ve underestimated just how difficult the SHL has become for 18-19 year olds the last few years when evaluating prospects. Höglander also seems like he’s constantly looking to improve so I think the chances of him succeding in the NHL are pretty good. He has looked amazing in the WJCs so far, big test against Russia.
Ullmark is a very good goalie.
Yeah I’m surprised that Leon is getting beat with the shit stick after this game. Not beating worlds but did a lot of good things on what looked like the seedlings of a second line that can outscore.
Nurse-Russell had coverage AND puckmoving issues all night. You seriously can’t have both those issues as a pairing, it is after all two of the main tasks of playing D.
I liked Lagesson better this game, he makes good reads consistently, plays safe, underrated shot. Instllnthinknhe’s hot some major limitation but he might lessen the risk of the GM trading for Manning/Petrovic/Gryba type guys because the coach wants ”defensively sound” D.
Larsson made a split decision on the first GA and it was probably the wrong one, Lazar was the more dangerous option, but it’s more difficult to be right on a scramble play after a bad turnover, overall I think he played well.
That goal is mainly on Jujhar who imo is playing himself out of the league. He has some qualities when on his game but a low producing player who keeps making major mistakes on goals against usually wears out their welcome. I’d give him a shot with Haas, put Nygård back with Sheahan-Archibald as that duo looked their best with him on the left, while at least starting to look if you can get something useful back in a trade(I doubt it).
I’d put an AHL call up on the right side of Haas and send Chiasson down btw. Chiasson looked good when he played for his NHL life at the start of last season but hasn’t shown anything beyond flashes since this time last year despite ample opportunity. Nobody is picking up that contract so there’s zero ”risk” that you lose him anyway. And if someone is to pick him up I’ll buy everyone a beer. (on a sidenote my phone wants to change the word nobody to the swedish word for monophyletic aka monofyletisk, that one came out of left field I’d say)
Nygård also needs to show something more soon or he’s Bako bound, still think he’s interesting enough to get a bit more rope with his speed, forechecking ability and defensive attention and as mentioned I did like him with the PK twins.
On the topic of PK duty Tippett seems reluctant to try Nygård or Haas there despite them both having done it with success in europe and both having skillsets that to my eye are a fit. With a lot of the other PK options playing themselves off the team it feels like something worth examining. I assume he wants them fully comfortable 5v5 before giving out more responsibility but I think he needs to twist and turn this roster everyway he can to find a mix that makes it more than the sum of its parts.
Klef can’t let Eichel own him like that in OT but other than that it feels like good Oscar is back the last two games which is massive for this team.
Smith did did fine but doesn’t instill much confidence.
Overall I didn’t hate that game. And yes I know they were lesser teams but the first half of the Rangers game and this one at least gives some hope they’re not looking to lose out january the way they did february. I’d keep the top two lines as they were and make the swaps I mentioned above making the bottom six PK twins+Nygård, JJ-Haas-AHL call up. For the D all I know is that the Nurse-Russel combo has to go.
And that’s all my couch GMing for today.
On the train to Prague after a great time watching the World Juniors – had to bail after the quarters to go back to work. Great atmosphere at the Canada and Czech games last night. I wish the Czech could have got s goal, the place would have erupted.
Watched Broberg twice, Lavoie thrice, and Blumel once. All struck me as relatively complimentary players on their respective teams, which is fine, since they are essentially all star teams. But from here at the tournament of small sample sizes it’s hard to see any of these guys in the NHL for at least a couple seasons.
Lavoie reminds me of Neal a little, but a better skater. I would have liked to see his positioning on PP/offensive pressure more in front of the net than off to the side, he had at least one pretty good chance last night though. To make it at the NHL I think he’s going to have to work on getting Neal/Smyth type goals, he’s not dynamic enough for plays off the rush from what I saw, just imo. Broberg is going to be a guy who when he does play his first games we’ll say “boy he’s sure calm, and poised, and smooth” but we’ll take some watching to see his game impact. I think we’ll be talking about that, not his speed, even though we know he’s fast. Blumel has a lot of try last night, but the whole Czech squad just doesn’t seem to have the skill, they’re in the tweeter division.
Best non-Oiler player I noticed? Hoglander, and it wasn’t close. I don’t know where his stats are but he’s on a different level.
Great time overall. Going to Gothenburg in two years is tempting.
Just finished watching the game off the PVR. What was the penalty shot for? I saw the replay 4 or 5 times and didn’t see anything, and Remenda obviously didn’t think it was his responsibility to analyze the play.
Draisaitl was the worst forward? His line was dominant on possession, scored a goal, gave up nothing, & he kicked everyone’s butt but Lazar’s on the dot.
I know his game has been in the crapper but when he shows signs of coming around, maybe stop crapping on him for a day?
Vegas, Arizona, Calgary and Vancouver all win.
The Beat Down in Bean Town looms.
LT:
draft eligible midget (5’8″) Connor McLennon
18 pts in last 9 pts
Coincides with return of Peyton Krebs. Someone on here learned us “who you play with matters:
After looking so good while going up 2-0 but then seeing the 2-1 goal slip 5 hole on the Sabres 2nd shot of the game, you just knew we were screwed.
I’ve decided to blame JP. Can’t believe he quit the team.
If only our best players would just try harder, this team would be a shoe in for the playoffs. Got it. And here I thought it was our crappy roster construction.
I can’t fathom how this team makes the playoffs. We absolutely owned the Sabres in the first period, we didn’t play too bad the rest of the game, and we still lost. And the Sabres are a non-playoff team that was lost in space to start the game.
I get how we need to dissect each goal against, and it’s an interesting exercise, but the real problem is we scored two goals yet again. This team flat out can’t score and won’t win until it can.
Having a dman playing his off-side in the top 4 is silly. There was a sequence in the third where Russell had an opportunity to keep a puck in but missed it, because he had to play the puck on his backhand.
It’s tough on the player and the team.
JimmyV1965,
I agree. Still need two more NHL wingers. Come on Holland!
It is good to consider that the NHL has moving parts behind the scenes that create some of the things we see?
Some is surely poor decision making, some is a result of injury, behavior, and agents. Some is plain bad luck for the player.
Yama vs Benson? Who knows. But I surely hope both are on the team next season and helping because the current guys en masse don’t have it, and the farm boys are bought and paid for.
Well, I didn’t hate that game. That’s something. Yama played well.
This is also what I saw.
It is not a good decision to leave a player in a high danger scoring area moving to an even higher danger scoring area like Sheehan did. Especially to go cover empty space. Cover him to the net.
You have the sequencing all wrong. Sheehan had Reinhart at the top of the circle then Nurse had Reinhart at net front. Reinhart was Nurse’s mark. Nurse left to go towards the Sabre winger at the dot anticipating a pass that never came. Reinhart was left alone.
That’s the way I saw it.
Yes they do.
He’s 80th in PPG.
It sure is. If this team is gong anywhere with Russell on it he has to be 3LD.
give him a look. That middle body is absent right now , and we can’t always predict what will happen. Yamo aint killin the AHL either but suddenly the team looks different, has more options, more pressure, more energy and quickness. I’d like to see how the chemistry changes with him up, and it’s a good time because our middle group needs help.
The tying goal was a miscommunication between Sheehan and Nurse. Sheehan had Reinhart, and Nurse begain heading to the open man. When Sheehan let Reinhart go to cover empty space, Nurse switched back to Reinhart, and arrived too late.
It does provide me some joy to see Adam Fox with three points in less than half a game against the flames who drafted him and threw him in to the Dougie Hamilton trade because he wouldn’t sign.
Yes, I know, John Marino – but at least he didn’t light us up when we played them.
The California teams play fewer games.
As per LT’s piece at the Athletic, Benson’s scoring thus far is ahead of where it was last season, despite Marody being injured and less effective.
Looks like a step forward to me, though it feels like a regression on the heels of last year’s impressive campaign.
I don’t mind him staying in the A this season given how much development time he has lost. I do believe him, and KY, to be an answer to the “missing middle” of even strength point production — guys who can put up 1.3-1.8 P/60 while playing secondary toughs.
overall though an entertaining game. I don’t feel bad that I watched it.
Girgensons for buffalo, was a big difference maker. creating space and gaining possesion so their skill guys could generate shots. He’s buffalos version of Kassian and the two of them had some really good battles. Today I’d have to say Girgenson outdueled Kassian, but that was a very interesting side battle.
And that’s where Chaisson kind of fits in. If he’s not going to give you a Girgenson like game, I don’t see him as useful in the lineup right now. Now Khaira, one assumes, has a similar skill set to Girgenson but he’s had lots of chances now, and he just doesn’t engage. Khaira could own the boards and be a very dangerous, somewhat intimidating and hard to play against player, but he just doesn’t seem to have that. I’m not sure how many more chances we give him. Cheap contract but you’ve got to win some battles. The coaches should be showing film of Girgenson and saying ‘thats what we need’.
In watching Draisaitl and McDavid play these past few weeks, it almost appears that they are coasting and expecting the puck to come them. Last year they both worked hard. They avoided fancy little back passes and drove for the net. Draisaitl , in particular, worked hard on his defense. They don’t appear to be doing that recently.
We need a 100% effort from both of them to be successful.
Benson is 39th in AHL scoring.
That’s no Messiah.
I’d like to see Haas get a shot in OT.. Haas with Bear and Nuge. Pity we couldn’t see Yamo in OT either, that would have been interesting.
Teams are playing OT different now. They’re not trying to just put out the best guys period and win it in 30 seconds with brilliant rushes. There is strategy. That strategy is win the draw, then take your time and apply pressure at the end of the first shift. It also means you start with reasonably good defenders in case you lose the draw.
Tip needs to change tactics. AND, it’s time to see BEAR, not Klefbom, in OT.
And Yamo wasn’t? Benson leads the team in pts.
Ya and please break up Nurse/Russell. A horrific pairing on coverage and then being able to make clean passes.
It’s OK to admit you are wrong. If you did this, even once in awhile, you wouldn’t take so much flack imo
Exactly why would that make a material difference?
Benson is failing to thrive in the AHL.
Yep.
Especially when you’re the only dman on the ice. You just can’t be the guy getting beat in the ozone.
I literally groaned the minute I saw him lunge at Eichel.