It’s one thing to understand a “schedule loss” and quite another to endure it. The Edmonton Oilers played a dandy first period against the Golden Knights, but the only goal landed in Edmonton’s net. The final two periods were a lot about chasing and in the end the home side won the day. Next game Saturday.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Jonathan Willis: Andreas Athanasiou injured, Mike Green elevated in Oilers’ loss to Vegas
- New Lowetide: Andreas Athanasiou acquisition might give the Oilers a scoring winger for McDavid cluster.
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers salvage a point as newcomers settle in (and produce) with Connor McDavid
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Are Oilers poised for a long playoff run after Ken Holland’s deadline moves?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers trade deadline active, targeted and predictable
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Andreas Athanasiou acquisition the most intriguing deadline move for Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Shrewd addition of Tyler Ennis gives the Oilers insurance, options up front
- Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid returns to the Oilers; now the task is to get him linemates
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers bolster blue line by acquiring Mike Green; Is a scoring winger next?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ European prospects offer interesting options for the future
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
- Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
OILERS AFTER 64 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 23-34-7, 53 points; goal differential -33
- Oilers in 2016-17: 34-22-8, 76 points; goal differential +12
- Oilers in 2017-18: 27-33-4, 58 points; goal differential -37
- Oilers in 2018-19: 27-30-7, 61 points; goal differential -26
- Oilers in 2019-20: 33-23-8, 74 points; goal differential 0
Coming out of the trade deadline and heading for the end of February, the Oilers are 1-2-1 in the last four and March is coming in like a lion. Hang on, it’s going to be a fun ride!
ON THE TENS
- First 10 games: 7-2-1
- Second 10 games: 5-4-1
- Third 10 games: 5-4-1
- Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
- Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
- Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
- Current 10 games: 1-2-1
OILERS IN FEBRUARY
- Oilers in February 2016: 2-10-1, five points; goal differential -23
- Oilers in February 2017: 6-6-0, 12 points; goal differential -1
- Oilers in February 2018: 5-7-1, 11 points; goal differential -4
- Oilers in February 2019: 3-6-4, 10 points; goal differential -14
- Oilers in February 2020: 6-5-2, 14 points; goal differential -2
The Oilers have faltered in the last week, allowing the 2016-17 team to catch up. One more game in February and it’s an important one.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
- Current results: 6-5-2, 14 points in 13 games
There will be a group of posters today who will have a ‘sky is falling’ take but I think it’s important to note the club came in a single point shy of my expectations for the road trip. You can’t lose your religion over such a small difference. The playoffs are not guaranteed, but last night was going to be a tough one and every knew it. If you want to be mad, the first period against Anaheim is a good recent place to start.
OILERS IN 2019-20
The Oilers best players (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl) hit posts and crossbars like they were playing the cowbell on “Honky Tonk Women” all night long, but this game had very little curb appeal for the Oilers fan. Numbers are available at NST, lines and pairings were moving about so I’m just doing to ramble. Everything is five on five.
Connor McDavid had five shots, two HDSC, posts, crossbars, probably hammered a few seagulls while he was at it but nothing rhymed. Hockey’s greatest player rarely has those games, bet he comes back with a vengeance on Saturday. Leon Draisaitl had four shots, three HDSC’s and similar results to 97. He made the same brilliant move twice but couldn’t score against Fleury. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had some looks but was the least dangerous of the big three. I thought the power play was flat on the evening, that’s a rare item.
Tyler Ennis impressed again, he’s going to be impossible to keep out of the top six. I don’t know what that means for James Neal and Zack Kassian but there you go. Andreas Athanasiou did some good work down low early but also looked lost a couple of times, and then got himself injured later on. Alex Chiasson is an easy target because everyone sees him and remembers Yamamoto was hurt, and he did get a five on five HDSC. Tippett believes he’s the best option, probably changes with Kassian’s return Saturday.
Jujhar Khaira, Riley Sheahan and Josh Archibald got fed on the evening going 3-10 Corsi, 1-6 shots and 0-3 HDSC. I kind of decided Benson wasn’t ready when he played on this line for a couple of games, but maybe it’s the line? Kassian or Joakim Nygard probably slide in during the coming weeks. Edmonton needs these three players to be effective in their roles.
Markus Granlund had three shots, Gaetan Haas fell in every quadrant and also had a HDSC, Patrick Russell took a penalty and the coach sent him right back out there. Fans are outraged by Russell’s presence in the lineup, I’m enjoying the experience and hope he gets to 50 games and scores a goal before April.
Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 14:39, going 12-18 Corsi, 7-11 shots, 0-1 goals and 3-4 HDSC. Nurse did a good job on the Pacioretty goal, no way that goal should go in from that angle. He may have gotten a piece of the shot from the point on the second goal, but a bad bounce was the key element in the PP marker. Ethan Bear was gold again, I thought he stood out as a passer, shooter, power-play organizer (he’s always at the point to keep the puck in play). My goodness what a rookie.
Caleb Jones and Mike Green played 4:28 together, going 10-2 Corsi, 9-2 shots and 0-1 goals, 3-1 HDSC. Jones had some wobble, but this pairing looked very good. I wonder if we see it again. Jones also had some brilliant moments by the way, his vision and passing are improving. William Lagesson and Mike Green went 5-10 Corsi in 8:33, 2-5 shots, no goals and 0-2 HDSC. I thought Lagesson struggled with the forecheck (he wasn’t the only one) and appeared to get dropped from the rotation at times. Green’s usage was elevated on merit, he has played well out of the box.
Caleb Jones and Adam Larsson played 12:42, going 7-15 Corsi, 1-7 shots, no goals and no HDSC. Larsson was challenged by the size/speed of the Golden Knights and took a penalty. I think we might see Jones-Green at some point in the future, maybe when Klefbom returns and the two Swedes get the band back together.
Mikko Koskinen stopped 30 of 33, .909. Since the major story in the game was a soft goal against that landed as the game winner, he owns it despite some good work later in the game. Can’t let that goal find the net.
INJURIES
No excuses, but injuries are really having an impact on this team. Zack Kassian returns from suspension on Saturday, one hopes Kailer Yamamoto is back in a quick hurry. He is a key element for the Draisaitl line. Oscar Klefbom won’t be back for a time but is badly needed too. Joakim Nygard and we’ll have to wait for a report on Athanasiou. Daniel Nugent-Bowman reported recently both Kris Russell and James Neal are “weeks” away.
BAKERSFIELD CONDORS 2019-20
This is the current Condors roster, the team struggled badly in February. I don’t believe there’s any way to call this team a failure when you consider what the Bakersfield bunch have delivered to the NHL. I imagine we’ll see Raphael Lavoie, Olivier Rodrigue, Filip Berglund and possibly Philip Broberg added to the Condors from the system this summer, plus a college signing or two.
The roster as it stands boasts some substantial talent on the way to the NHL. Evan Bouchard is NHL-ready, Dmitri Samorukov is matriculating, Tyler Benson, Ryan McLeod and Kirill Maksimov all have a chance. Sucks that so many players graduated in one season, but that’s also a reflection of the great work being done by Jay Woodcroft and his staff.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on TSN1260, we get started at 10. Derek van Diest from Post Media (Journal and Sun) joins us at 10:20 to break down last night’s game and look forward to Saturday. Jeff Krushell from Krush Performance talks mlb to Vancouver and spring training. At 11, Frank Seravalli from TSN pops by to talk trade deadline and the sprint to the finish. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Sounds like Mike Green will be out for a bit with his lower body injury.
https://twitter.com/JasonGregor/status/1233434176965074944
1) Slepyshev – sounds like he wants to give the NHL another try and, yes, in my opinion, assuming he’s willing to sign a one-year $900K (give or take) contract, its a no-brainer. He may not actually make the team, we don’t know if his uptick in play is a heater and, given if it isn’t, if it will translate to the NHL, but its a no-risk contract (just a spot on the 50). I do think he has every ability to be a solid 3rd line NHL player with maybe still some top 6 upside. Sounds like his game has matured and the guy can skate and shoot and isn’t “dumb offensively”
2) Berglud – this is a no-brainer ELC contract assuming the player is willing (and from accounts he is). He would be a reasonable darkhorse for NHL minutes next year. Some think he is already 3RD ready subject to maybe some AHL seasoning for North America. Either way, he need to be in Western North America next year.
3) Markus Niemelainen – he put his name back on the radar for an NHL contract this season – Howson did speak about potentially signing him about a month ago – not a no-brainer like Berglund but he’s got a shot at an NHL contract.
4) Jesse Puljujarvi – come on Jesse, sign your damn QO next year – that will make you easier to trade at the draft or come to camp, earn a roster spot and maybe even a top 6 spot and continue to develop in to an NHL player.
You’re a smart person and I enjoy our discussions.
Here’s the “but”
Your defense of Chiasson is unfounded.
We’re talking about a $2.15m cap hit.
It didn’t take more than a blog reader in their basement to know that Holland was paying for a heater that long ago ended or that we were paying for PP minutes and heavy minutes at evens with Draisatl that he didn’t earn deserve,and would never see again.
As for goal rate.
Chiasson has 0.29 goals per hour at evens. Second worse on the team only better than Nygard.
For reference, JJ scores 0.6 per hours do Sheahan 0.5.
At evens, Chiasson is 0.68 points per hour.!!?!
That’s 3rd worse on the team ahead of only Russell and Cave.
That’s below replacement level.
I’m sorry, but there’s no defending paying over $2m for a winger who’s 6th worst in NHL at 5v5 production (over 500 min played).
I said the past summer that Chiasson would be a buyout candidate.
Notch below?
Thats like saying i loosened my belt by one notch when you had to drill a new hole 3 inches away from the last one
New for The Athletic: The Oilers’ 2017 draft and the value of waiting five years
https://theathletic.com/1641391/2020/02/28/oilers-2017-draft-and-the-value-of-waiting-five-years/
Assuming the boys have a full practice today at home which is great as they generally come out with strong performances after Tip, Playfair and Gully have a chance to work with the boys.
Will be really interested to see if Klefbom and/or Yamamoto are participants in practice. They are both about a week away (speculated) but it would be nice to see them at actual practice.
I assume AA is a full participant but I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Assuming AA plays, I wonder when they put Ennis and Kass – maybe Kass slots in the 2RW spot that has been an issue with Kailer out? Or perhpas Ennis goes there and Kass to 1RW?
Will Green start up the lineup with Jones – they were quite good together last game.
I assume Smith starts.
Heh, that is funny. I guess it’s not laziness since you do it for trade targets. And thanks.
If you look at just goals the cutoff between 3rd and 4th line forward is actually 8 or 9 goals depending on the year. 10 goals isn’t average for a 4th liner.
It may be hard to believe (I was a bit surprised when looked it up just now), but Alex Chiasson has actually never never had a season that’s fallen even into 4th line goal scoring territory. Every year of his career he’s scored goals at a 3rd line rate or better. It’s often been at the low end of 3rd line, and he hasn’t done his scoring at evens this season, but he’s consistently scored better than a 4th line forward throughout his NHL career, across 5 teams.
I think it’s also a big stretch to say Chiasson was a marginal NHL player when Holland signed him. Aside from his scoring history (above) he was coming off a season where he scored 22 goals and played 17 minutes a night.
I’m not even arguing it was a good deal, but it wasn’t terrible. I wouldn’t have signed him to it, but mainly because Holland had so little money and it blocked other moves.
I’m not sure what the “pretty vanilla efforts when the chips were down” is about, but Chiasson’s on ice results are better than the average Oiler on the season so far. That’s the bottom line for me.
He’s totally meh, but i don’t agree that he deserves to be a lightning rod. Or that he should be in the PB. Or that he needs to be bought out/moved.
Pysankas are 13 over Bettman, not 14
I’m blaming my phone for that one. Pysankas did not play.
Whatever you say, Super Nintendo Chalmers.
Considering the Canucks have to play 16 games in March, including 3 B2Bs, you’re going to get to see how well the Canucks’ no-name goalie plays too…
Are you pumped?
#twonotchesbelow
jp,
This is a very thoughtful post, thank you for the info.
The funny thing about me is… I’m all over puckiq and naturalstat when it’s Pin-the-tail-on-the-trade-target. But I almost never use either, at least on a regular basis in-season, to review our own roster.
I wonder if it’s from seeing the players too much?
(I mean besides my obvious innate laziness)
He’s a stable player for sure. As for goals he has 8 but 5 are PP.
Normally players like him don’t get PP, and a 4 th liner should score 10 goals on average.
Which means he is unproductive. He was a marginal NHL player when he was signed to his deal. Holland had his reasons which Connor’s injury as mentioned explains.
Players with some skill that have trouble keeping their career almost always don’t skate well at an NHL level.
I have no idea why they don’t find improvement. It’s available to them. But not finding it ends careers.
Gagner is probably done, if they buy out AP which I hope they don’t he’s probably done as well.
Nice guys but winning is what matters, they know how it works.
I’m sure Holland is wanting to see some fight from them to keep going, both players offered up pretty vanilla efforts when the chips were down.
I expect around 5 new players next season. A couple might be this year’s deals. Thankfully Holland likes speed and skill. Which has always been the hallmark of most productive players.
I didn’t watch the 2nd or 3rd periods last night but Chiasson seems to have become the chosen whipping boy over the last 24 hrs.
I can’t say that I like him but I also have a hard time getting upset about him. And I don’t think he’s at all a problem on the Oilers roster.
There’s no question he looks like crap out there. And he does suppress offence. But it’s for everyone, which isn’t always a bad thing.
So no, you shouldn’t be playing him with McDavid (likely not Nuge-Draisaitl either) but otherwise I see zero issue with him as a bottom 6 forward (who’s also used, with solid results, on the PP).
PP first:
Huh, seems like Chiasson has the best on ice results of all Oilers at 5v4. Only marginally better, but he’s actually better than McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge and everyone else in shots, goals, xGoals per 60.
I don’t give him a lot of credit for that, but he’s there on the PP and he sure as hell isn’t a drag.
At 5v5:
He’s somewhat sheltered by TOI vs Elites (though in a large group that isn’t McDavid, Draisaitl, Kassian, Nuge, Yamamoto).
What happens: the Oilers are outshooting the opposition when he’s on the ice. His DFF% is also positive, and his DFF% vs Elites is better than team average.
He’s -1 in GF/GA at even strength for an Oilers team that’s -16 overall (and -2 vs -19 at 5v5). His 5v5 GA/60 is the lowest the 12 forwards who’ve played >400 minutes. His GF/60 is 8th of the 12.
I dunno. It almost seems like he’s helping the team.
I just can’t get worked up over Chiasson’s contract or his spot in the lineup. I’ve tried. Seriously. I just keep coming back here. He doesn’t seem to actually be a problem at all. Not sexy, but not a problem.
Yes.
Demko is a notch below.
But Ottawa’s no name goalie was the difference tonight.
Canucks got a minimum of two more weeks of Demko that a big downgrade from
Markstrom
WG Leaderboard preview
Crapific
VGP
1413VAN 11
EDM 10
Wildcard
NSH 9
CGY 8
Out of playoffs
MIN 6
WPG 6
ARI 4
lol Flames, way to blow that one.
But OT was better than a Flames win.
Expecting 0.5B Pysankas to host Nashville. Nice to see Flames miss a point and Dys miss two.
Bah!!!!
Preds tie it up with 0.2 left
Good call.
Going to OT.
Hey, Mangiapane gives the flames the lead with under a minute to go.
Not the ideal result but better than OT!
Ugh, Preds tie it up, only a few minutes left in regulation now.
I don’t think many doubted that Toffoli was going to be productive with the Canucks.
The “concern” with the trade was (and is) the price paid for the length of time he will be with the team and if this was the right year to make that type of trade.
Of course, a re-sign is an option (although it didn’t sound like it was likely) but then, of course, you are paying UFA money for a late 20s player (28 when the contract starts) for his decline years.
I did notice that despite his goal tonight, he was negative at 5 on 5 (also notice Myers was on for 4GA at 5 on 5 and 0GF).
Harpers Hair,
How did the Canucks do tonight, speaking of which?
I my me.
Got it.
I mentioned above, he is a fine 12F if he’s a net zero player which means he’s giving up nothing but, over the last month, he’s started to make plays that hurt the team, or have the potential to hurt the team.
He isn’t even contributing to an effective forecheck/possession line at this time.
He’s regressed from a feel good story of a hard-working guy that has earned the coaches trust back to a tweener that needs to be pushed down and out of the lineup.
With a healthy forward group, he’s not in the lineup I don’t think.
The Kings have been unable to score goals literally for years despite winning the fancy battle most of the time.
Toffoli immediately got Petterson and Miller as linemates and is taking advantage.
Word is the Canucks have already opened contract talks with him but given their cap issues it may be tough to hang on to him.
Especially against the crybaby flopping Canucks.
I thank you for your suggestion but will continue to make my own determination on the most prudent games of the evening vis-a-vis my favorite team.
My eye is definitely on the wild card race teams but more focussed on the top 4 Pacific teams at this moment in time.
A great night for him and the crowd was chanting his name all night long.
Must feel good for him.
flames up 2-1 a few minutes in to the third.
While the optimal result is a Preds regulation win, at this point, I think I may “hope” for no more goals at all. Flames in regulation is a much better result than any three point game.
Bobby Ryan with two late goals to complete the hattrick and finish off the Cancuks who lose 5-2 in regulation.
So happy for Bobby – don’t know him at all personally but do have some insight in to what he’s gone through and the work he’s put in to get to where he is right now, at this moment.
5-2 Ottawa.
3-2 now.
Toffoli now with 4 goals and 6 points in 4 games with the Canucks.
Man is he going to get PAID!
I think that’s what they call the dead cat bounce 😉
Same reason that he did not pursue JT Miller.
He did not know if he was going to have McDavid for any part of this season late in June. So it maeant trading draft picks for last June and upcoming June extremely dangerous and unwise.
Holland could not trade draft picks until he knew when McDavid would be back.
McDavid’s injury effectively meant that he could only pursue UFA’s. Hence the pursuit of Connelly.
Thanks. Makes sense that the value of the picks would have been sky high with a delayed return.
Giio really screwed us.
Hopefully AA works out as well.
Nice of LT to highlight his stellar career 5v5 goal per hour rate.
I don’t say it enough but Lt is one hell of a good writer.
About the same as AHL scoring translates.
Not sure if this has been addressed or not today; I was really pissed when Russell took that selfish tripping penalty in the ozone last night. I thought Tipp should have stapled him to the bench. For some reason, he played him with McDavid. What would be the reasoning behind this?
Was thinking about Chiasson, Burakovsky, and AA.
The Avs grabbed Burakovsky for only a second and a third. It would be patently obvious to anyone that our draft picks would have had more value than the Avs for 2020.
http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf
Lots of posters were clamoring for a Burakovsky trade last summer.
Wonder why Holland didn’t forgo signing Chiasson for which he had to know was a poor bet of a contract and trade for Burakovsky?
3-1 Sens in the third – excellent stuff.
Would be prudent to take a look in the rear view mirror.
Winnipeg leading Washington 1-0 in the second.
Miinnesota leading Detroit 6-1.
This thing is far from over.
Laine has left tonight’s game and will not return.
Who looks behind them when they’re being lead by a 23yr old Connor McDavid and a 24yr old Leon Draisaitl, it’s far from over but this is a group looking ahead with confidence and conviction. It’s impossible for the sky to be falling when it’s actually opening up and it’s blue skies as far as the eyes can see.
Your verbal is sweet, we can all feel the internal battles you’re struggling with watching it all unfold. You want to cheer for the Oilers so badly but pride is stopping you.
Please keep posting, watching this struggle with the internal battle is beautiful and the skies may part for you yet. It’s not too late, you can get a 97 jersey maybe for 2022 or something.
People understand that bruises can hurt more then breaks when they occur right? Tough guy central around here, Andreas would probably curb stomp the lot of you in person imo.
flames take a 2-1 lead in the 2nd and the canucks cut their deficit to 2-1 heading in to the third.
flames tie it up in the opening minute of the 2nd period.
The flames missing the playoffs by one point is number 2 on my “to do list” every year, right after the Oilers making the playoffs. Aside from the above beautiful ramification, it helps the Oilers stay in a top 3 Pacific playoff spot.
Things still look bright for a top 3 division spot – the Markstrom injury is major for Vancouver as Demko is still young and developing. If the Oilers can get somewhat healthy and stay somewhat healthy, they should be a lock for at least a 2-3 spot in the division and I have zero doubt a fairly healthy Oilers team is in the same tier as Vegas.
Klef and Kailer – just get those two healthy and don’t lose anyone else material.
“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated,” Prince (CEO of Citigroup) said. “But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” circa 2007
From Margin Call:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOYi4NzxlhE&t=6s
I am standing here tonight and I don’t here a thing. (dramatic pause) Just silence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbD_kBJc_gI
I had never hated a Bowie album till that one came out.
Chiasson can throw the odd hit and win the odd battle but, Neal, when he’s healthy and motivated, can be a tough SOB to play against – he’s a big body that uses his size on the boards and he’s also dirty, sometimes sneaky dirty but sometimes just dirty.
We’ve seen some nights and short stretches where he’s a force in the offensive zone possession game.
I don’t think he can play that way nightly for long, however, for the first round of the playoffs, if he’s healthy and rested, he could be a load.
Sets up Flames missing or having to play Central 1.
The thought crossed my mind…….
Ottawa’s 2-0 lead holding half way through the 2nd and Nashville up 1-0 on the flames in the first (and, for me, that is the preferred result, Preds regulation win).