The Thin Blue Line

You can see it coming, although the Oilers don’t have 12 burners up front and haven’t acquired six elite outlet passers. The Chiarelli “size” Oilers are being replaced by a quicker, more skilled group in a realignment that will hopefully bring glory to the Edmonton NHL franchise.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2017 draft and the value of waiting five years
  • New Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ AHL factory has produced three NHL defencemen, with more on the way
  • Jonathan Willis: Andreas Athanasiou injured, Mike Green elevated in Oilers’ loss to Vegas
  • Lowetide: Andreas Athanasiou acquisition might give the Oilers a scoring winger for McDavid cluster.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers salvage a point as newcomers settle in (and produce) with Connor McDavid
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Are Oilers poised for a long playoff run after Ken Holland’s deadline moves?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers trade deadline active, targeted and predictable
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Andreas Athanasiou acquisition the most intriguing deadline move for Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Shrewd addition of Tyler Ennis gives the Oilers insurance, options up front
  • Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid returns to the Oilers; now the task is to get him linemates
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers bolster blue line by acquiring Mike Green; Is a scoring winger next?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ European prospects offer interesting options for the future
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
  • Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer

NHLE EURO FORWARDS

The interest surrounding Anton Slepyshev made be well founded, as the Russian winger is playing well in the KHL (54, 18-27-45). That works out to NHLE 54.9 and at 25 the big winger might be ready to have another shot at the NHL. Jesse Puljujarvi is also having an impact season in Europe, as he has posted 21-28-49 in 50 games (NHLE 36.3). Young center Maxim Denezhkin (50, 19-22-41) is playing well in the MHL, his NHLE (12.1) suggests the 19 year old may have a future.

NHLE EURO DEFENSE

RH Filip Berglund is a player I liked in his draft year (had him No. 61) and he’s had some ups and downs in Sweden over his career. His numbers this season (46, 5-13-18 and an NHLE of 19.1) makes his signing likely. LH Philip Broberg (39, 0-6-6 and an NHLE of 7.5) is about what you’d expect from a Swedish defender who doesn’t get power-play time. I’m impressed with his offense, it’s better than expected. Markus Niemelainen is a shutdown blue in the Liiga (51, 0-6-6 NHLE: 4.4) who might also sign.

CHL FORWARDS

Raphael Lavoie probably turns pro as a winger and my guess is he gets the Tyler Benson treatment as opposed to the Kirill Maksimov package. His QMJHL season (49, 32-40-72, 34.2 NHLE) suggests he is in the range with Benson in his final junior season (29.5 NHLE).

AHL FORWARDS

Tyler Benson made his NHL debut this month, and is now back in the AHL. His season (43, 9-27-36, NHLE 33.4) is slightly off compared to a year ago but the Condors aren’t as good a team this year. Ryan McLeod (52, 5-17-22 NHLE 16.9) is scoring at a higher level than I thought he would in year one pro. Kirill Maksimov (49, 5-8-13 NHLE: 10.6) is shy of what most of us expected. Speaking of struggle, Cooper Marody (30, 5-12-17 NHLE: 22.6) has battled injury and has been unable to push for NHL work this season.

AHL DEFENSE

RH Evan Bouchard (50, 7-26-33 NHLE 26.3) is the top prospect in the system and is NHL ready. LH Dmitri Samorukov (43, 2-7-9 NHLE 8.3) is a little under the radar but a quality prospect.

LINES AND PAIRS

Assuming Andreas Athanasiou is healthy enough to play, we should see more than one line shuffling tomorrow night. Zack Kassian draws in and that should bump a few people down the depth chart. Here’s how I think the lines and pairs might look Saturday against Winnipeg.

Andreas Athanasiou—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian. I think Ennis has been the better winger of the two new guys, but the second line needs a spark.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Leon Draisaitl—Tyler Ennis. The closest thing to Yamamoto this side of Yamamoto, this line has been a key element in recent weeks.

Josh Archibald—Riley Sheahan—Alex Chiasson. This trio hasn’t played much together but they’re all veterans and bring something to the trio. Where have you gone Joakim Nygard??

Jujhar Khaira—Gaetan Haas—Patrick Russell. Khaira has played well in a small sample with Haas.

Darnell Nurse—Ethan Bear. Ideally both men have their TOI reduced by effective play of other pairs.

Caleb Jones—Mike Green. These two had good results together the other night, I’d like to see them again. Nice rookie/veteran combination,, could benefit Jones in a big way.

William Lagesson—Adam Larsson. Another rookie/veteran combination, I like this pairing because Lagesson can move the puck better than first thought upon arrival.

When everyone is healthy, I think Neal and Kassian may be forced into depth roles. AA-97-Ennis and Nuge-Leon-KY would seem to be the ideal power trios on the skill lines.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’s Friday, time to kick back and enjoy spring along with another giant snowfall. We get rolling at 10 this morning, TSN1260. We’ll invite Steve Lansky to make sense of the trade deadline and the race in the Pacific Division. Murat Ates from The Athletic will join us to preview Saturday night’s game and tell us why he asked Paul Maurice a question in Klingon the other day. Matt Iwanyk, who ironically speaks his own language, will pop in to talk Oilers and Tom Brady’s future. We may also have an NBA guest, depending on how I feel about the 76ers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. We’re mere minutes from the weekend!

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240 Responses to "The Thin Blue Line"

  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Central
    STL 21
    COL 19
    DAL 16

    Lolific
    VGP 13
    VAN 11
    EDM 10

    Wildthing
    NSH 9
    CGY 8

    You make my heart sing
    MIN 6
    WPG 6
    ARI 4
    CHI 0
    ANA -5
    SJS -6
    LAK -12

    -MIN with 3(!) games in hand on WPG.

    -Relevant games tonight:

    MIN (+105) at CBJ (-125) – Wild on 3rd in 4 nights, 2nd of back to back in 3 different cities. Line is probably close. Wild playing well.

    BUF (+230) at VGP (-280) – Pysankas shouldn’t crack here.

  2. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

    Atlantic
    BOS 27
    TBY 21
    TOR 11

    Metropolitan
    WSH 20
    PIT 18
    PHI 16

    Wildcard
    NYI 15
    CAR 12

    Our of playoffs
    NYR 11
    CBJ 11
    FLA 8
    BUF 3
    MTL 1
    NJD -2
    OTT -9
    DET -32

    -I am openly cheering for both the Rags and the Jackets to finish 8th and 9th in the EC and miss the playoffs with TOR making it in 10th because I just like to watch things burn.

    Relevant games today:

    NYR (+140) at PHI (-160) – Rags are 9-1 in their last 10, but I think this shapes up as a loss. 3rd in 4 nights, 2nd of back to back in 3 different cities. PHI is good at home too.

    MIN (+105) at CBJ (-125) – Go Jack go!!

    COL (-105) at CAR (-115) – No idea here. I *think* COL should be the fav due to goalering so maybe some value there. Isn’t this the spot we always see some young goalie like Alex Nedeljkovic seriously out-perform his AHL results?

  3. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Murat Ates from The Athletic will join us to preview Saturday night’s game and tell us why he asked Paul Maurice a question in Klingon the other day.

    Can you ask Murat to ask Maurice how many lights he sees?

  4. Pescador says:

    Lead with some gold this morning:

    LEADFARMERsays:
    February 28, 2020 at 7:55 am
    Harpers Hair: Yes.
    Demko is a notch below.
    But Ottawa’s no name goalie was the difference tonight.

    Notch below?
    Thats like saying i loosened my belt by one notch when you had to drill a new hole 3 inches away from the last one
    ‐———————–
    Spectacular

  5. Halfwise says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You make my heart sing

    You make everything…groo-oovy

  6. dessert1111 says:

    I think Khairan plays on the Sheahan line ahead of Chiasson. Chiasson looked alright with Haas before. If it weren’t for the powerplay I’d want him press boxed in favour of Granlund, he’s been slow slow slow lately and has been missing his hands in front of the net too.

  7. Mikeoes says:

    Wait a sec…. so Anton has a way higher NHLe than Pujujarvi?? The second coming according to so many tweeters? (BLH I’m looking at you) . How can this be? Put Slepy on the 1st line, it’s obvious he DESERVES the minutes.

  8. Ben says:

    Adding Bouchard to that group of young, smart D who can pass the puck is a pretty thrilling proposition (I think they’ll move Larsson for a F and sign Green).

    Nurse-Bear
    Klef-Bouch
    Jones-Green
    Benning

    That could turn into one of the most effective attacking D corps in the league.

  9. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Been busy this week with the markets: WOW!

    – Sometimes in this world there is “too much information”

    – One takeaway for investors is that if this downturn has made you really uncomfortable to the point of having to really be talked out of selling (or if you did sell long-term investments in the last few days): then you had the wrong asset allocation, and were taking more risk than you ought to. Sure sell the riskier more speculative stuff and move into better companies that will rebound quicker and are better situated, but don’t sell now to raise cash.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      OR, think of it like all of the assets Kinger refers to, the riskier speculative stuff and “the better companies” are in in a really big barrell; a barrell we call “the markets”. And that barrell is about to go over Niagra Falls.

      The smart money was in the bond market for some longish duration of time and is now sitting at the bottom of Niagra falls waiting to pick up the pieces of the barrell as they float by at literally “rock bottom” prices.

      Those investors chose to ignore the froathy white foam on the river that indicates that there is trouble ahead, that is, the waterfall.

      Always remember, the brokerage houses make thier money wether you do well or not. They make thier money on what, in the gambling world is called “the vig”. That is too say, they earn their commisions and fees while the markerts rise, and as the markets go over the falls. Lock Stock and Barrell. Or in this case Stocks Locked in Barrell.

      If you dont beleive me, ask yourself, whats the first thing that people say when they see Niagra Falls for the first time?….You got it….WOW!

      #ContrarianInvesting

  10. Doug McLachlan says:

    I think there are a couple of pre-planned blender options but surrounding Haas with the vets Neal and either Ennis or Kassian creates a true soft parade line.

    AA-McDavid-Kassian/Ennis
    Nuge-Drai-Yamo
    Ennis/Neal-Haas-Neal/Kassian
    Archie/Jujhar-Sheahan-Chaisson/Archie

    Man, can’t wait for Yamo’s return.

  11. mit167 says:

    Im hoping the Oilers move Ennis to the third line and push Chiasson to the fourth or have him alternate press box with PRussell

    AA McD Kass
    Nuge Drais Yamo (Ennis)
    Gran Sheahan Archi
    Khaira Haas PRussell

    When Healthy

    AA McD Kass
    Nuge Drai Yamo
    Ennis Haas Neal
    Khaira Shehan Archi

    If you want to swap Shehan and Haas but I left Sheahan with Archibald for continuity. Might be able to argue two First lines and two Third lines

    Lol… Or What Doug said above

  12. cowboy bill says:

    dessert1111,

    We can only hope that AA or Yamo can play then Chiasson can sit in the press box . He no longer seems to be a fit on this Oiler roster . I’d actually prefer Granlund in the lineup on the left side with Sheahan & Arch .

  13. Darth Tu says:

    It’s nuts that Jesse is shooting at 5.7%. He’s 4th in overall points (forwards only) in the league, 5th in goals scored (forwards only).

    I haven’t seen any footage of him this year, does anyone have any thoughts/observations on why his percentage is so low?

    • tileguy says:

      Do you know the muffin man,
      The muffin man, the muffin man,
      Do you know the muffin man,
      Who lives on Drury Lane?

      Yes, I know the muffin man,
      The muffin man, the muffin man,
      Yes, I know the muffin man,
      Who lives on Drury Lane.

    • Ben says:

      My “saw his highlights good” report is that that his goals tend to be perimeter shots that find a way through. As we saw with the player in Edmonton, he can sometimes kill the play with a low-percentage shot to the crest from the top of the circle.

      So I suspect shot selection has something to do with it, though his totals suggest that he’s shooting a ton.

  14. jtblack says:

    LT: Bottom six looks like it still can’t score.

    Hopefully that changes when Ennis drops down there.

  15. Ryan says:

    N64: At $2.15 million you can bury half of that cap hit in the AHL. And you can call the guy up in case of injury. Not sure why anyone buys out contracts in that price range?

    I meant figuratively.

    However, you can still make an argument for a potential buyout. You save another 400k or so of cap space (at the cost of incurring the buyout cap hit ~700k for another year though).

    As well, you gain a spot on the 50-man. You save just over 700 k in real dollars and you punish Chiasson a bit financially for him forcing you to overpay him. Though he still probably would be able to get a contract from someone else next year.

  16. Jordan says:

    Draft Question for everyone:

    When the Oilers traded for Nolan Vessey, they gave up a conditional 7th in 2020 to Toronto.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_NHL_Entry_Draft

    Can anyone tell me what the conditions were, or if the conditions were met for this pick to transfer?

    I remember Lowetide mentioning a couple days ago that the Oil still had their 7th, so wanted to be sure I understood why we still have it, as per the conditions.

    Thanks!

  17. Reja says:

    Mikeoes:
    Wait a sec…. so Anton has a way higher NHLe than Pujujarvi?? The second coming according to so many tweeters? (BLH I’m looking at you) . How can this be? Put Slepy on the 1st line, it’s obvious he DESERVES the minutes.

    I love sleppy but he definitely needs a more demanding agent to straighten out Holland like Jesse’s agent did.

  18. Bulging Twine says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Been busy this week with the markets:WOW!

    – Sometimes in this world there is “too much information”

    – One takeaway for investors is that if this downturn has made you really uncomfortable to the point of having to really be talked out of selling (or if you did sell long-term investments in the last few days): then you had the wrong asset allocation, and were taking more risk than you ought to.Sure sell the riskier more speculative stuff and move into better companies that will rebound quicker and are better situated, but don’t sell now to raise cash.

    There are value Buying opportunities now, no?

    • N64 says:

      If your timeframe of concern is within a year this correction is bad news.

      If your timeframe of concern is within 3 years a follow on to a bear market is bad news.

      As usual the older you are the more concerned you should be in health and in markets.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/heres-how-long-stock-market-corrections-last-and-how-bad-they-can-get.html

      There have been 26 market corrections (not including Thursday) since World War II with an average decline of 13.7% over an average of four months…Recoveries have taken four months on average…

      There have been 12 bear markets since World War II with an average decline of 32.5% as measured on a close-to-close basis…Bear markets have lasted 14.5 months on average and have taken two years to recover on average.

  19. Bulging Twine says:

    Jordan,
    2020 conditional 7th round pick* (EDM)

    *Conditions: Pick is transferred only if Vesey plays in ?? NHL games (actual number of games required unknown) with Edmonton prior to the expiration of his Entry Level contract.

    Result: Vesey did not meet the NHL games requirement prior to the expiration of his Entry Level contract. Edmonton keeps their 2020 7th round pick.

    -from cap friendly

  20. Bulging Twine says:

    Green to miss time with LBI

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Assuming the boys have a full practice today at home which is great as they generally come out with strong performances after Tip, Playfair and Gully have a chance to work with the boys.

    Will be really interested to see if Klefbom and/or Yamamoto are participants in practice. They are both about a week away (speculated) but it would be nice to see them at actual practice.

    I assume AA is a full participant but I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

    Assuming AA plays, I wonder when they put Ennis and Kass – maybe Kass slots in the 2RW spot that has been an issue with Kailer out? Or perhpas Ennis goes there and Kass to 1RW?

    Will Green start up the lineup with Jones – they were quite good together last game.

    I assume Smith starts.

  22. OilersFuture says:

    Jordan,

    Per Capfriendly; “Conditions: Pick is transferred only if Vesey plays in ?? NHL games (actual number of games required unknown) with Edmonton prior to the expiration of his Entry Level contract.”

    Edit: What Bulging Twine said.

  23. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Green to miss time with LBI

    Sometimes you just gotta laugh

  24. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    There was some discussion at the tail of yesterday’s thread about EDM’s fancystats this year.

    I thought I’d post some to spur discussion and start fights.

    Here’s one of my favourite fancystats: Relatiave Team Mate Goals +/-/60

    This is the total weighted WOWY of goals for/against per 60 minutes of 5v5 TOI.

    A result of +1.00 or better is pretty outstanding. +0.50 is very good.

    This is the first result I look at when examining a player and then try to find out their “why”

    This is from evolving-hockey.com

    I don’t agree with or like their single output metrics like GAR or WAR, but its a good site for more basic fancystats and the last one (that I know of) that does Relative Team Mate metrics (total weighted WOWY) rather than just straight Relative (on/off)

    Sample size is 200+ minutes 5v5

    Forwards:
    Player RelTM G±/60
    Kailer Yamamoto 2.43
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0.65
    Zack Kassian 0.64
    Connor McDavid 0.44
    Joakim Nygard 0.38
    Alex Chiasson 0.25
    Gaetan Haas 0.21
    Markus Granlund 0.14
    Leon Draisaitl 0.08
    Riley Sheahan -0.56
    Patrick Russell -0.60
    Sam Gagner -0.73
    James Neal -0.77
    Josh Archibald -0.89
    Jujhar Khaira -1.51

    The young man at the top of this list ranks 1st in the NHL in this results metric.

    Dmen
    Player RelTM G±/60
    Matt Benning 1.63
    Caleb Jones 0.61
    Kris Russell 0.17
    Ethan Bear -0.05
    Darnell Nurse -0.11
    Oscar Klefbom -0.25
    Adam Larsson -0.44

    The young man at the top of this list ranks 1st in the NHL among Dmen and 6th among all NHL players.

    3rd pairing Dmen tend to well in this, but even among 3rd pair Dmen, he knocks it out of the park.

    Also,

    Goals are notoriously noisy (read: variable) in small samples so some might want to use Expected Goals instead.

    Here they are again, but instead of G+/-/60 its xG +/-/60:

    Forwards:
    Player RelTM xG±/60
    Joakim Nygard 0.60
    Kailer Yamamoto 0.46
    Sam Gagner 0.32
    Markus Granlund 0.19
    Patrick Russell 0.19
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0.16
    Gaetan Haas 0.11
    James Neal 0.08
    Zack Kassian 0.03
    Alex Chiasson -0.04
    Connor McDavid -0.07
    Riley Sheahan -0.14
    Leon Draisaitl -0.16
    Josh Archibald -0.43
    Jujhar Khaira -0.56

    Before you get all up in arms about McDavid, understand that what xGF measures is heavily weighted to shot share.

    McDavid scores *a ton* of goals on rushes and much less of a “ground and pound” type of player.

    This is why his goal results will almost *always* be better than expected goals.

    Dmen:
    Player RelTM xG±/60
    Ethan Bear 0.06
    Caleb Jones 0.05
    Matt Benning 0.03
    Oscar Klefbom 0.03
    Darnell Nurse -0.02
    Kris Russell -0.03
    Adam Larsson -0.11

    Note:

    Any poster looking at these results and replying with “so you’re that…….” will be summarily shot with a ball of their own shit.

    I am not saying anything. (at least in this post)

    I am posting some interesting results that could be fun to discuss.

    There is no one metric to best judge players, this is just a good starting point to dig into player results.

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Green to miss time with LBI

    FFS

  26. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Been busy this week with the markets:WOW!

    – Sometimes in this world there is “too much information”

    – One takeaway for investors is that if this downturn has made you really uncomfortable to the point of having to really be talked out of selling (or if you did sell long-term investments in the last few days): then you had the wrong asset allocation, and were taking more risk than you ought to.Sure sell the riskier more speculative stuff and move into better companies that will rebound quicker and are better situated, but don’t sell now to raise cash.

    Bring on the negative interest rates and helicopter money! Print, print, print…to infinity and beyond.

  27. wolf8888 says:

    Mikeoes,

    He’s also 25

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Matty says a source says Kailer is apx 2 weeks maybe 3 with his ankle.

    Lots of speculation that he’d be back in the next game or so because he skated yesterday but, yesterday, on Oilers Now, Stauff said he thinks he’s about a week and now Matty says longer – who the heck knows but it doesn’t sound like his return is imminent even though he is skating.

    Will be interested to see if he skates with the team today, that is, practices.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    1) Slepyshev – sounds like he wants to give the NHL another try and, yes, in my opinion, assuming he’s willing to sign a one-year $900K (give or take) contract, its a no-brainer. He may not actually make the team, we don’t know if his uptick in play is a heater and, given if it isn’t, if it will translate to the NHL, but its a no-risk contract (just a spot on the 50). I do think he has every ability to be a solid 3rd line NHL player with maybe still some top 6 upside. Sounds like his game has matured and the guy can skate and shoot and isn’t “dumb offensively”

    2) Berglud – this is a no-brainer ELC contract assuming the player is willing (and from accounts he is). He would be a reasonable darkhorse for NHL minutes next year. Some think he is already 3RD ready subject to maybe some AHL seasoning for North America. Either way, he need to be in Western North America next year.

    3) Markus Niemelainen – he put his name back on the radar for an NHL contract this season – Howson did speak about potentially signing him about a month ago – not a no-brainer like Berglund but he’s got a shot at an NHL contract.

    4) Jesse Puljujarvi – come on Jesse, sign your damn QO next year – that will make you easier to trade at the draft or come to camp, earn a roster spot and maybe even a top 6 spot and continue to develop in to an NHL player.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like Mike Green will be out for a bit with his lower body injury.

    https://twitter.com/JasonGregor/status/1233434176965074944

  31. Darth Tu says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Green to miss time with LBI

    Nooooooooooooo.

    At least we have Benning to slide back in – DEPTH.

  32. Our Edmonton Operation says:

    N64:
    Is Ennis OK? Asking for a friend.

    If I’m Ennis, I’m getting nervous.

  33. J-Bo says:

    I agree that Kassian may be pushed down by Ennis; however, thinking of playoff hockey, will this still be the case? I see Kassian on that top line in the playoffs, especially if we play the devil Flames. Therefore, I hope Kassian, McD, and AA get some ggod playing time in the regular season in order to be better prepared for the playoffs.

    • tileguy says:

      Would the flames use a tactic of face washing 97 or little slashes to get a rise out of Kassian? Could he rise above it?

  34. jp says:

    Ryan,

    To your comment at the end of the last thread:

    I agree it wasn’t a ‘good’ contract, I don’t agree it was notably bad.

    Yes, Chiasson’s scoring numbers this season are horrendous. In fact they’re easily the worst of his career. I don’t think you or anyone was predicting a sharp drop off in 5v5 scoring from his previously established levels.

    Combining the 3 seasons before Holland re-signed him Chiasson scored 0.70 G/60 and 1.26 P/60 (P/60 was 1.28, 1.27, 1.25). Those are 2nd line and (low) 3rd line rates respectively.

    Last season he scored 1.16 P/60 with Draisaitl (570min), 1.24 P/60 with Nuge (290min) and 1.48 P/60 with McDavid (284min) so his scoring was barely affected by playing up the lineup (Chiasson is un-zoomable lol!)

    He did get extra PP points which he largely doesn’t own, but I still don’t think 2.15M is at all egregious for a guy scoring goals at 2nd line rates and points at 3rd/4th line rates without being pumped by Nuge/Drai/McDavid. That’s the guy Holland signed.

    So I still don’t think the level of criticism Chiasson is getting is warranted. Clearly I’m in the minority here.

    All this doesn’t matter particularly either, so I’d be cool stopping the Chiasson talk for now. It’s also probably a good sign for the team that Chiasson being in the PB or not is a conversation worth having.

    • N64 says:

      jp: To your comment at the end of the last thread:

      Ryan: you punish Chiasson financially for forcing him you to overpay him.

      ~ Why put your strongest argument last? ~

      Your total cap savings over the 2 year is $716,667. You save more cap hit by burying him in the AHL. If he’s fine next year he’s in the NHL. If not, there is no scenario where a buyout is reasonable.

      https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/alex-chiasson#results

    • pts2pndr says:

      We always talk quality of competition but often forget where and who a given player has as line mates. Chaisson has played down the lineup and with limited minutes. At his price point cap wise he will be nice insurance. He did become somewhat redundant when the Oilers acquired Neal. Playoffs when the rubber hits the road Chiasson will be a very nice player to have even if its in reserve.

  35. ArmchairGM says:

    Ben:
    Adding Bouchard to that group of young, smart D who can pass the puck is a pretty thrilling proposition (I think they’ll move Larsson for a F and sign Green).

    Nurse-Bear
    Klef-Bouch
    Jones-Green
    Benning

    That could turn into one of the most effective attacking D corps in the league.

    I think I found what you’re looking for…

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/312827

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lavoie scored a goal last night and had 6 shots on net. He was -3 in a loss though (his goal was PP).

    The goal was his 100th in the Q.

    ————————————-

    I like Maksimov and have hopes for him as a middle six winger that could excell on the PP (best shot of any forward in the organization) but Lavoie is a more substantial offensive prospect that Maski was coming of out of junior.

    I agree that Lavoie starts in a more offensive role in the Bake next year than Maksi did this year.

    Maksi has a broader range of skills though as a plus 2-way player and PK guy – Maksi can made the NHL as a middle six or even bottom six guy whereas Lavoie is a top 6 NHL prospect.

  37. Darth Tu says:

    Ben:
    My “saw his highlights good” report is that that his goals tend to be perimeter shots that find a way through. As we saw with the player in Edmonton, he can sometimes kill the play with a low-percentage shot to the crest from the top of the circle.

    So I suspect shot selection has something to do with it, though his totals suggest that he’s shooting a ton.

    Yeah – he’s at 365 odd shots isn’t he? He’s shooting a tonne which is good. Volume shooting is still good I guess, especially if he can create rebounds rather than kill play dead with the goalie holding on to it.

    I’d like to see him come back and succeed with the Oilers, but if his shot selection is never going to improve it might be time to cash in and take what we can get for him.

  38. Darth Tu says:

    AA and Yamo both on ice for full practice according to Stauffer.

  39. Bulging Twine says:

    3-4 weeks for Green!

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sprained MCL for Green – out 3-4 weeks.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Both Yamamoto and AA are on the ice for the team practice this morning.

    I still don’t think this means Yama is close to playing but I guess we’ll find out more when Tip speaks in a bit.

  42. who says:

    Ryan: I meant figuratively.

    However, you can still make an argument for a potential buyout. You save another 400k or so of cap space (at the cost of incurring the buyout cap hit ~700k for another year though).

    As well, you gain a spot on the 50-man. You save just over 700 k in real dollars and you punish Chiasson a bit financially for himforcing you to overpay him. Though he still probably would be able to get a contract from someone else next year.

    I think the play is trade him, with salary retained, or let him play out the contract.
    Buying him out would be like buying out Manning this past summer. You save about 1 million in cap hit, but you are extending the pain over 2 years. Don’t really see the point.

    • N64 says:

      Actually $716,667 total cap savings over 2 years less than sending him to Manning Island IF warranted.

      • Ryan says:

        My primary point was how much we’re paying him vs his sub-replacement offense at 5v5.

        Fun Fact!

        Looch is producing more at 5v5 than either one of Chiasson, JJ, or Neal!!!

        In fairness, Chiasson is 51st in the league in goals / hr on the PP.

        I understand this is primarily why Holland signed him.

        PP shooter

  43. Numenius says:

    Darth Tu: At least we have Benning to slide back in – DEPTH.

    Benning may even be the stronger option for now. He’s at least better luck, according to the fancies.

  44. ArmchairGM says:

    Mikeoes:
    Wait a sec…. so Anton has a way higher NHLe than Pujujarvi?? The second coming according to so many tweeters? (BLH I’m looking at you) . How can this be? Put Slepy on the 1st line, it’s obvious he DESERVES the minutes.

    He did okay with McDavid in limited minutes between 16-17 and 17-18. In that time period he got 113:52 with the captain, scoring 1.05 G/60 and 2.63 P/60. I never understood why he didn’t get more of an opportunity.

    Jesse got 340:58 with McDavid in those seasons, scoring 0.88 G/60 and 2.11 P/60.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Stauffer:

    Athanasiou-McDavid-Ennis
    RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
    Archibald-Sheahan-Kassian
    Khaira-Haas-Chiasson
    Neal-Granlund-P. Russell

    Nurse-Bear
    Jones-Larsson
    Lagesson-Benning
    K. Russell

    Smith
    Koskinen

    —————————————-

    Kailer on his normal line – that is usually a pretty solid indication.

    If they don’t think he’ll be able to play, I would assume they’d have his logical replacement in there.

    Great sign!

    Looks like P. Russell may get the press box (along with Granlund) for Kass and Yama – Russell has been making mistakes lately and I agree with this.

  46. who says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    1) Slepyshev – sounds like he wants to give the NHL another try and, yes, in my opinion, assuming he’s willing to sign a one-year $900K (give or take) contract, its a no-brainer. He may not actually make the team, we don’t know if his uptick in play is a heater and, given if it isn’t, if it will translate to the NHL, but its a no-risk contract (just a spot on the 50). I do think he has every ability to be a solid 3rd line NHL player with maybe still some top 6 upside. Sounds like his game has matured and the guy can skate and shoot and isn’t “dumb offensively”

    2) Berglud – this is a no-brainer ELC contract assuming the player is willing (and from accounts he is). He would be a reasonable darkhorse for NHL minutes next year. Some think he is already 3RD ready subject to maybe some AHL seasoning for North America. Either way, he need to be in Western North America next year.

    3) Markus Niemelainen – he put his name back on the radar for an NHL contract this season – Howson did speak about potentially signing him about a month ago – not a no-brainer like Berglund but he’s got a shot at an NHL contract.

    4) Jesse Puljujarvi – come on Jesse, sign your damn QO next year – that will make you easier to trade at the draft or come to camp, earn a roster spot and maybe even a top 6 spot and continue to develop in to an NHL player.

    Didn’t I just read this in the last thread?

  47. OilClog says:

    Whenever Matty says something can we just automatically apply the reverse to what is actually going to happen. He’s always so Gord awful.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan Rishaug
    @TSNRyanRishaug
    Russell leading stretch with Kassian… not always, but usually means a guy is ready to come back. We’ll ask Tippett after skate.

    ————————————-

    Removing him from LTIR would require a few players down to the AHL – Granny and Lagesson are eligible to play in the AHL. I’d have to do some math but that MAY get them under the cap when the LTIR cushion disappears.

  49. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    1) Slepyshev – sounds like he wants to give the NHL another try and, yes, in my opinion, assuming he’s willing to sign a one-year $900K (give or take) contract, its a no-brainer. He may not actually make the team, we don’t know if his uptick in play is a heater and, given if it isn’t, if it will translate to the NHL, but its a no-risk contract (just a spot on the 50). I do think he has every ability to be a solid 3rd line NHL player with maybe still some top 6 upside. Sounds like his game has matured and the guy can skate and shoot and isn’t “dumb offensively”

    2) Berglud – this is a no-brainer ELC contract assuming the player is willing (and from accounts he is). He would be a reasonable darkhorse for NHL minutes next year. Some think he is already 3RD ready subject to maybe some AHL seasoning for North America. Either way, he need to be in Western North America next year.

    3) Markus Niemelainen – he put his name back on the radar for an NHL contract this season – Howson did speak about potentially signing him about a month ago – not a no-brainer like Berglund but he’s got a shot at an NHL contract.

    4) Jesse Puljujarvi – come on Jesse, sign your damn QO next year – that will make you easier to trade at the draft or come to camp, earn a roster spot and maybe even a top 6 spot and continue to develop in to an NHL player.

    Do you happen to know what Sleppy makes ($) in the KHL?

  50. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I know they’re in a playoff push but don’t rush Yammy back if he’s not ready!! We’ve seen this story before with him. Let him get to 100%

  51. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ryan Rishaug
    @TSNRyanRishaug
    Russell leading stretch with Kassian… not always, but usually means a guy is ready to come back. We’ll ask Tippett after skate.

    ————————————-

    Removing him from LTIR would require a few players down to the AHL – Granny and Lagesson are eligible to play in the AHL. I’d have to do some math but that MAY get them under the cap when the LTIR cushion disappears.

    I’m a big fan of Lagesson, but Russell back in and playing 3rd pair with Benning would be the best news we could get with Green now out. Obviously Klefbom back would be better, however he’s still out for a little while longer.

    • OilClog says:

      In just a few short games Lagesson has been making and completing passes from his end more then I’ve seen the belly flop cowboy make in 3 years. Russell going on LTIR would be the best news imo.

      • Darth Tu says:

        Well, maybe Kris is the PB guy and only gets in if Jones/Nurse/Lagesson goes down. I’d still rather he was there as injury cover.

        • OilClog says:

          I agree with this, I have no issue with Russell if he’s in the 7 or 8th spot filling in for any injuries that may happen. But I’m not dressing him if I have 7 healthy defenders.. Well unless Larsson continues to be a train wreck, I’m not sure dressing him over Benning right now is a good decision. 83 doesn’t miss his hits when he commits to them, small thing but physicality is suppose to be his thing, he got beat up by the cousins of wetaskiwin lol

  52. drglen says:

    Green out. Sh_t. That’s horrible. What the hell. Benning in then. Call up Bouchard. I’d be OK with Bouchard getting some NHL minutes in this situation.

    Chaisson should not play with Shehan and Archibald and should not be in the regular line up. 4th line, PP, and press box is his role.

    Bring up Benson again, try him with McDavid, or back with She and Arch.

    Things are getting bad here. Maybe 3rd period put Connon and Leon back together, with Zack. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

    And play Smith until he falters terribly.

    • OilClog says:

      Hopefully you have your hard hat on, been hearing that blue skies can give one hell of an concussion. Watch out for the whiplash, no one ever mentions the whiplash.

  53. russ99 says:

    OilClog,

    Completing passes doesn’t a defensemen make, and rookie D make mistakes no matter how good they look with the puck.

    Overemphasizing zone exits and stretch passes is fine, but we have question marks between the pipes, so defensive zone coverage, winning battles and crease clearance should at least be considered.

    Plus Russell – Benning were our best 5×5 pair for the first half of the season.

    • OilClog says:

      Kris Russell is not a rookie, and makes glorious amounts of mistakes and sucks at trying to complete a pass..

      Are they the best 5×5 pairing or were they just slotted correctly against the right level of competition? What would Klef/Lars or Nurse/Bears numbers look like strictly playing against gritensity?

      Russell’s defensive zone coverage it’s a series of snow angels, Lagesson looks to win as many physical battles as Russell ever has except, if he comes out with the puck he tries to move it forward to a breakout, Russell is lucky when it’s not icing.

      Russell loves to allow clear air to the puck carrier when crossing his blue line, he engages late, loses the physical battle then is praised for taking a shot to the guts cause he’s a real battler out there. I’d rather the defender that just takes his guy at the line and sends the puck the other direction without the bullshit.

  54. tileguy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    As per Stauffer:

    Athanasiou-McDavid-Ennis
    RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
    Archibald-Sheahan-Kassian
    Khaira-Haas-Chiasson
    Neal-Granlund-P. Russell

    Nurse-Bear
    Jones-Larsson
    Lagesson-Benning
    K. Russell

    Smith
    Koskinen

    —————————————-

    Kailer on his normal line – that is usually a pretty solid indication.

    If they don’t think he’ll be able to play, I would assume they’d have his logical replacement in there.

    Great sign!

    Looks like P. Russell may get the press box (along with Granlund) for Kass and Yama – Russell has been making mistakes lately and I agree with this.

    I see Neals name in this tweet, I wonder if he is getting close?
    Smith starting? Has coach Dave lost his faith in Mikko?

  55. giddy says:

    These injuries man, wow. What the hell.

  56. ArmchairGM says:

    Darth Tu:
    It’s nuts that Jesse is shooting at 5.7%. He’s 4th in overall points (forwards only) in the league, 5th in goals scored (forwards only).

    I haven’t seen any footage of him this year, does anyone have any thoughts/observations on why his percentage is so low?

    Ben:
    My “saw his highlights good” report is that that his goals tend to be perimeter shots that find a way through. As we saw with the player in Edmonton, he can sometimes kill the play with a low-percentage shot to the crest from the top of the circle.

    So I suspect shot selection has something to do with it, though his totals suggest that he’s shooting a ton.

    It’s a few months old now, but Wheeler has an excellent article on The Athletic breaking down JP’s game:

    https://theathletic.com/1343870/2019/11/06/wheeler-analyzing-jesse-puljujarvis-play-in-finland-to-see-what-he-could-offer-as-an-nhler/?article_source=search&search_query=puljujarvi

    Definitely worth a look. You can sign for a free trial if you’d like, or I can get you 40% off a sub here:

    https://theathletic.com/checkout?pc=raf40&plan_id=45&shared_by_name=David&shared_by=DAVID702143&source=referral

  57. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    tileguy: I see Neals name in this tweet, I wonder if he is getting close?
    Smith starting? Has coach Dave lost his faith in Mikko?

    At some point they have to get Miko some games in a row to get him going…

  58. hags9k says:

    Benning slides back in, maybe Russell is back, maybe they could bring up the top prospect Bouchard…

    Depth! Balance? Cmon lets have 4 lines clicking so LT has to post the picture!

  59. ArmchairGM says:

    Ryan: I meant figuratively.

    However, you can still make an argument for a potential buyout. You save another 400k or so of cap space (at the cost of incurring the buyout cap hit ~700k for another year though).

    As well, you gain a spot on the 50-man. You save just over 700 k in real dollars and you punish Chiasson a bit financially for himforcing you to overpay him. Though he still probably would be able to get a contract from someone else next year.

    Chiasson’s rel’s are ALL positive. Why on earth are you talking about buying him out? Buyouts should only be used on below-replacement-level players.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=r&team=EDM&pos=F&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

    • Ryan says:

      At this stage in his career, he’s a very limited player. One that is inarguably overpaid.

      He can’t skate, so he can’t forecheck. He can’t make plays often or get to the play

      At 5v5, he can’t even see the Mendoza line let alone bat above it, because it’s too far away.

      Really, Chiasson’s only value as a hockey player at this stage in his career is PP shooter, on the Oilers.

      That’s why Holland is paying him.

      He’s around 50th in league in goals per hr on the PP though, in fairness, he plays on the Oilers powerplay aka the best power play in the league with Draisatal and 97. He’s only ever in his career been over 2 goals per hour on our PP.

      For example, if you sent him to Detroit. I’m not sure he’d score much on their powerplay if they played him there.

      Again, I don’t hate the player, but I don’t like his contract.

      • ArmchairGM says:

        I don’t either, but you’re blindly ignoring the fact that he’s an above average forward on this team by possession, goals, scoring chances and expected goals.

    • OilClog says:

      Have you actually watched any of the recorded video of Chaisson’s play this season? If Chaisson is in the league next year, it’s most likely his last unless he discovers a new way to skate. He looks like Teddy Purcell before they took him behind the shack out back and shot him.

      • Ryan says:

        Yeah, the play dies on his stick even on the power play. I did say that he can’t skate.

        I didn’t want Holland to sign him last summer.

  60. stephen sheps says:

    Where’s Andy today?

    I was looking forward to seeing the results of the Simpsons character nominations.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      Hey Sheps.

      HadHave some family matters to attend to. Still on it.

      Will have somehting on the weekend.

    • theDjdj says:

      OriginalPouzar:
      Absolute kudos to J. Willis for taking the time to speak to, and write about, Dave Manson.Woody gets s much credit but Manson’s name is not mentioned enough and its great to he’s finally getting a bit of press – well deserved.

      We cannot discount the work Manson has done with Bear, Jones and Lagesson over the last few years and should be very comfortable knowing the likes of Bouchard and Samorukov are under his tutelage.

      Was fascinating wasn’t it. The guy is quite literally a Defenseman whisperer. So glad he’s in our organisation coaching our brightest stars.

  61. ArmchairGM says:

    Darth Tu: Yeah – he’s at 365 odd shots isn’t he? He’s shooting a tonne which is good. Volume shooting is still good I guess, especially if he can create rebounds rather than kill play dead with the goalie holding on to it.

    I’d like to see him come back and succeed with the Oilers, but if his shot selection is never going to improve it might be time to cash in and take what we can get for him.

    “Shots” to Liiga is what “corsi” is to NHL.

  62. who says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: At some point they have to get Miko some games in a row to get him going…

    Yeah. I’m questioning the handling of Koskinen right now. Wish Tippet would go back to the 2 on, 2 off, rotation. It’s almost as if he’s decided Smith is the #1, and I’m not sure it’s warranted.

  63. Litke 94 says:

    Sucks that Green is out for a month, but that’s not the worst thing in the world. I didn’t really buy into this narrative that Rishaug has been pushing where Benning was somehow not performing well? I think that is insane. He’s been stellar all year on the 3rd pair, when healthy.

    So Green out, Benning in? I’m okay with it.

    I was more concerned with Yamo and AA. What the hell is Matty on? 3-4 weeks he reports but he is skating on his own line? I don’t get it.

  64. who says:

    who: I think the play is trade him, with salary retained, or let him play out the contract.
    Buying him out would be like buying out Manning this past summer. You save about 1 million in cap hit, but you are extending the pain over 2 years. Don’t really see the point.

    Yeah, I worded that wrong.
    If you bury him in the minors it would still be a 1.1 million cap hit for next year. If you buy him out it would be a 700k cap hit for 2 years.
    If you replace him with a 700k cap hit player Chiasson actually costs you about 1.8 million next year.
    If you buy him out and replace him with that same player he costs you 1.4 million for 2 years.
    Conclusion- it makes no sense to buy him out.

  65. Our Edmonton Operation says:

    giddy:
    These injuries man, wow. What the hell.

    This rash of injuries is so frustrating.

    But then I was thinking how the team did relatively well when McDavid was out. During those games, we had Kailer, Klefbom, and Benson. And now those three guys are out and in the lineup we have McDavid, Ennis, Athanasiou, Kassian, and possibly Kailer. We should get back to our winning ways. The team needs to ensure they’re committed to that same work ethic when McDavid was out. And decent goaltending would help.

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      We did well when Larsson was out.

      We did well when McDavid was out.

      The one element that we cant live without?

      Godot?…..

      Kassian!

      We couold not survive Kass being out for 7 games.

      We coulda used us some Kassinator in that Pysnakas game. Kass eats Pysankas for breakfast.

      Someone up in Fluerys kitchen.

  66. Brantford Boy says:
  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gregor reports that Russell took lots of reps with Benning today – he’s very close apparently.

    I think Lagesson and Granlund have to go down in order to activate Russell and lose the LTIR cushion.

    I think those might be the ONLY two players eligible to play in the AHL for the rest of the year. I always understood that a player needed to be on the AHL roster at the deadline in order to be eligible for the AHL playoffs but capfriendly is adamant that its to be eligible for both the regular season and the playoffs.

  68. fries n gravy says:

    Chiarelli wanted “size”, though with exceptions (eg. KY)

    Holland wants “trees”, though with exceptions (eg. Ennis)

    Sorry folks, the narrative isn’t much different.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mikeoes:
    Wait a sec…. so Anton has a way higher NHLe than Pujujarvi?? The second coming according to so many tweeters? (BLH I’m looking at you) . How can this be? Put Slepy on the 1st line, it’s obvious he DESERVES the minutes.

    21 years old vs. 25 years old

  70. Andy Dufresne says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Been busy this week with the markets:WOW!

    – Sometimes in this world there is “too much information”

    – One takeaway for investors is that if this downturn has made you really uncomfortable to the point of having to really be talked out of selling (or if you did sell long-term investments in the last few days): then you had the wrong asset allocation, and were taking more risk than you ought to.Sure sell the riskier more speculative stuff and move into better companies that will rebound quicker and are better situated, but don’t sell now to raise cash.

    ANDY DUFRESNEsays:
    February 28, 2020 at 12:17 pm
    OR, think of it like all of the assets Kinger refers to, the riskier speculative stuff and “the better companies” are in in a really big barrell; a barrell we call “the markets”. And that barrell is about to go over Niagra Falls.

    The smart money was in the bond market for some longish duration of time and is now sitting at the bottom of Niagra falls waiting to pick up the pieces of the barrell as they float by at literally “rock bottom” prices.

    Those investors chose to ignore the froathy white foam on the river that indicates that there is trouble ahead, that is, the waterfall.

    Always remember, the brokerage houses make thier money wether you do well or not. They make thier money on what, in the gambling world is called “the vig”. That is too say, they earn their commisions and fees while the markerts rise, and as the markets go over the falls. Lock Stock and Barrell. Or in this case Stocks Locked in Barrell.

    If you dont beleive me, ask yourself, whats the first thing that people say when they see Niagra Falls for the first time?….You got it….WOW!

    #ContrarianInvesting

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben:
    Adding Bouchard to that group of young, smart D who can pass the puck is a pretty thrilling proposition (I think they’ll move Larsson for a F and sign Green).

    Nurse-Bear
    Klef-Bouch
    Jones-Green
    Benning

    That could turn into one of the most effective attacking D corps in the league.

    I think its a bit early to think about re-signing a soon to be 35 year old Green but you are correct, the future of puck-moving/attacking D looks bright for this group.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see some Berglund on the right side next year as well – maybe not to start the year but you never know. He’s a “seasoned rookie”.

    Green turns 35 on October 12 – I think that means it wouldn’t be a “35 plus contract” but I’d have to dust off the CBA to confirm.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    Draft Question for everyone:

    When the Oilers traded for Nolan Vessey, they gave up a conditional 7th in 2020 to Toronto.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_NHL_Entry_Draft

    Can anyone tell me what the conditions were, or if the conditions were met for this pick to transfer?

    I remember Lowetide mentioning a couple days ago that the Oil still had their 7th, so wanted to be sure I understood why we still have it, as per the conditions.

    Thanks!

    The condition was related to playing a certain amount of NHL games prior to the expiry of his contract – the condition did not vest and the Oilers keep the 7th.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    This does not look good on Matty:

    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    3m
    Coach Tippett says Yamamoto & Russell will be reassessed in the morning to determine if they’ll be ready for tomorrow vs. Winnipeg. Coach adds Athanasiou is alright & should play. #LetsGoOilers

  74. N64 says:

    who: Yeah, I worded that wrong.
    If you bury him in the minors it would still be a 1.1 million cap hit for next year. If you buy him out it would be a 700k cap hit for 2 years.
    If you replace him with a 700k cap hit player Chiasson actually costs you about 1.8 million next year.
    If you buy him out and replace him with that same player he costs you 1.4 million for 2 years.
    Conclusion- it makes no sense to buy him out.

    For a 2 year contract with 1 year left and 50% paid the break even point for total cap hit to buy out vs. bury one year in the AHL is at $2.925M.

    e.g. for Staal’s $3M contract buyout doubles the time period, but in TOTAL only saves $25K cap hit:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/eric-staal#results

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Didn’t I just read this in the last thread?

    I’ve provided my thoughts on these players in various threads over the days, weeks, months, when the subject comes up and typed up this post, in real time, this morning.

    The blog post we are commenting on specifically talks about these players and their potential futures in the organization. My post seems apt.

    I query, as between my 4 paragraph post on Oilers players, and your post above, which post provides substance on the subject matter of the blog and which post. well, doesn’t?

    • Glovjuice says:

      OP is the most defensive human ever.

      He must have no children. No person I know with children behaves this way.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tippett also said a decision on Russell will be made tomorrow morning.

    Looks like Lagesson and Granny will be headed to the Bake some time very soon – need to get rid of material cap in order to remove Russell from LTIR (unless they are putting Neal on, or Green I guess).

  77. k.kause says:

    If Yamo is good to go what are people’s thoughts on Yam replacing Chaisson on the PP. Yam got two goals on the PP filling in for Mcdavid and obviously Chaisson plays the net front role which is usually reserved for a bigger body (Chaisson, Neal, etc.). The Oilers PP seems to run more backdoor and tap in plays versus screened shots where a bigger body is more effective.Yam has got quite a few goals in tight in front of the net this year. I’m curious on what you all think.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger: Do you happen to know what Sleppy makes ($) in the KHL?

    Actually, yes, he is one of the higher paid at 90M rubbles which equates to about $1.3M (USD).

    Hmmmm, it may cost a bit more than first thought to get him back to North America.

    https://www.traderumours.com/index.php?blog=8200&s=8

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    DarthTu: I’m a big fan of Lagesson, but Russell back in and playing 3rd pair with Benning would be the best news we could get with Green now out.Obviously Klefbom back would be better, however he’s still out for a little while longer.

    I don’t disagree – I like Lagesson too but Russell is a better 3LD at this point.

    The “concern” I have is what they do when Klef is back vis-a-vis Jones vs. Russell????

  80. Our Edmonton Operation says:

    k.kause:
    If Yamo is good to go what are people’s thoughts on Yam replacing Chaisson on the PP. Yam got two goals on the PP filling in for Mcdavid and obviously Chaisson plays the net front role which is usually reserved for a bigger body (Chaisson, Neal, etc.). The Oilers PP seems to run more backdoor and tap in plays versus screened shots where a bigger body is more effective.Yam has got quite a few goals in tight in front of the net this year. I’m curious on what you all think.

    So far, I think Yamamoto can do no wrong! Kidding aside, I think he’s showed well in his limited PP minutes. He’s willing to go to the front of the net, and he’s quick and smart enough to shoot from there on the PP or dish it off. We all know he’s tenacious enough to fight for rebounds. If he’s not afraid of Chara, he’s not afraid of anybody in front of the net. He certainly wouldn’t be worse than Chiasson on the PP.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like Rusty will be back, if not tomorrow, then soon.

    Firstly, good for the player and his health. There were suggestions that “he would never play again” – diagnosis’ from the family room which I never understand.

    While I like Willie Lagesson and he’s a better puck mover than Rusty, what this will do is help Matty Benning I believe. They were a very solid/great 3rd pairing early in the season and I believe Tip/Playfair trust that pairing more than the Lagesson/Benning pairing which means more than apx 9 even strength minutes for Benning.

    Benning deserves, in my opinion, to play more than he has been and Rusty on his left side will likely make it so!

  82. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree – I like Lagesson too but Russell is a better 3LD at this point.

    The “concern” I have is what they do when Klef is back vis-a-vis Jones vs. Russell????

    I bet you they run with ‘their guy’ in Russell. No question in my mind, Jones has passed him. Awesome that he can hold down 3LD for $900K the next 2 seasons.

  83. Darth Tu says:

    ArmchairGM:
    It’s a few months old now, but Wheeler has an excellent article on The Athletic breaking down JP’s game:

    https://theathletic.com/1343870/2019/11/06/wheeler-analyzing-jesse-puljujarvis-play-in-finland-to-see-what-he-could-offer-as-an-nhler/?article_source=search&search_query=puljujarvi

    Definitely worth a look. You can sign for a free trial if you’d like, or I can get you 40% off a sub here:

    https://theathletic.com/checkout?pc=raf40&plan_id=45&shared_by_name=David&shared_by=DAVID702143&source=referral

    It probably is time that I ponied up and got an Athletic subscription.

  84. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Both Yamamoto and AA are on the ice for the team practice this morning.

    I still don’t think this means Yama is close to playing but I guess we’ll find out more when Tip speaks in a bit.

    Better to make sure he is 100% than bring him back too soon. It is very nice to have the depth to do so.

  85. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Tippett also said a decision on Russell will be made tomorrow morning.

    Looks like Lagesson and Granny will be headed to the Bake some time very soon – need to get rid of material cap in order to remove Russell from LTIR (unless they are putting Neal on, or Green I guess).

    Neal to LTIR seems like the obvious choice, no? Is there any reason they wouldn’t do that?

  86. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar: 21 years old vs. 25 years old

    It’s like Rafferty v Bouchard all over again.

  87. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree – I like Lagesson too but Russell is a better 3LD at this point.

    The “concern” I have is what they do when Klef is back vis-a-vis Jones vs. Russell????

    I’m hoping that becomes more of a game by game decision. Need a defensive stalwart? Russell is in. We need more puck movement against an opponent? Jones is in.

  88. Darth Tu says:

    ArmchairGM: “Shots” to Liiga is what “corsi” is to NHL.

    Yeah, I’m pretty much squinting trying to sell myself that he’s doing extremely well rather than just well.

    We’re never getting a good return on JP are we?

  89. Younger Oil says:

    With Yamamoto, Kassian, and Anthanasiou all potentially returning tomorrow, I hope that’s the last we’re going to see of Chiasson in the Top 9 for a long, long time.

    Three even strength points since December, 34 games. Even Khaira has more. Can’t PK either. He’d be my top choice to be scratched for the rest of the season.

  90. dustrock says:

    Younger Oil:
    With Yamamoto, Kassian, and Anthanasiou all potentially returning tomorrow, I hope that’s the last we’re going to see of Chiasson in the Top 9 for a long, long time.

    Three even strength points since December, 34 games. Even Khaira has more. Can’t PK either. He’d be my top choice to be scratched for the rest of the season.

    If only we had some idea that signing him to that extension was a poor idea.

  91. dustrock says:

    Darth Tu: Yeah, I’m pretty much squinting trying to sell myself that he’s doing extremely well rather than just well.

    We’re never getting a good return on JP are we?

    We’ll get a 2nd in this year’s draft.

  92. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree – I like Lagesson too but Russell is a better 3LD at this point.

    The “concern” I have is what they do when Klef is back vis-a-vis Jones vs. Russell????

    With the current coaching staff I find I have very little concern. I have been very pleased with their player useage. They know the players far better than we do at this point and I have trust that they will put players in a position to succeed while not sacraficing team goals or the future.

  93. godot10 says:

    k.kause:
    If Yamo is good to go what are people’s thoughts on Yam replacing Chaisson on the PP. Yam got two goals on the PP filling in for Mcdavid and obviously Chaisson plays the net front role which is usually reserved for a bigger body (Chaisson, Neal, etc.). The Oilers PP seems to run more backdoor and tap in plays versus screened shots where a bigger body is more effective.Yam has got quite a few goals in tight in front of the net this year. I’m curious on what you all think.

    Yamamoto scoots in and out of the homeplate area opportunistically.

    A net front presence on the powerplay is to distract/obstruct the goaltender and occupy a defensemen and take a beating. To turn it into a 4 on 3. With one D tied down by your net front meathead in front of the net.

    Not the same job description. You are asking your offensive halfback to play nose tackle.

    • stephen sheps says:

      I’m not sure that NT is the right comparison, especially since a Nose Tackle is a defensive position, primarily in 3-4 defences.

      To me, the net-front presence is more like a really strong blocking tight-end with decent hands, think Ben Watson or Dallas Goedert. Great players, but they have their roles and know how to succeed.

      KY is absolutely a halfback though, but more in the Darren Sproles, Dion Lewis scat-back type. Great in the screen game and in open spaces, surprisingly good between the tackles if used sparingly in the role. Not an every-down back like CMC or Derrick Henry (who do the every-down back thing very differently). I like football equivalencies. This is a fun game.

  94. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Actually, yes, he is one of the higher paid at 90M rubbles which equates to about $1.3M (USD).

    Hmmmm, it may cost a bit more than first thought to get him back to North America.

    https://www.traderumours.com/index.php?blog=8200&s=8

    Maybe he needs a break from Russian girls, NHL dream and all if he shows good he gets multi year contract the following year from someone. Sleppy plays heavy and hard on the puck exactly what you want in the playoffs to bad so sad he’s not eligible for our run, I could see Tippettt liking and utilizing Sleepy to his strengths. If Sleppy signs next year I’ll put money he scores at least 13 goals.

  95. Ribs says:

    Andy Dufresne: Always remember, the brokerage houses make thier money wether you do well or not. They make thier money on what, in the gambling world is called “the vig”.

    I’ve only seen reference to “the vig” in written form that I can think of. How is it normally pronounced? I see that it is short for “vigorish”, does that mean it’s a hard G? It sounds less cool that way, hah.

  96. dustrock says:

    Ribs: I’ve only seen reference to “the vig” in written form that I can think of. How is it normally pronounced? I see that it is short for “vigorish”, does that mean it’s a hard G? It sounds less cool that way, hah.

    Anglo version of Russian/Ukrainian “vigrash” or profit/winnings.

    Hard “g’, yes.

  97. Reja says:

    godot10: Yamamoto scoots in and out of the homeplate area opportunistically.

    A net front presence on the powerplay is to distract/obstruct the goaltender and occupy a defensemen and take a beating. To turn it into a 4 on 3.With one D tied down by your net front meathead in front of the net.

    Not the same job description.You are asking your offensive halfback to play nose tackle.

    Teams or still trying to figure out Yamo and his relentless little engine that could fore-checking, Leon and Nuge are missing Yamo and the turnovers he creates which instantly turn into grade A chances. What a revelation this kid has been, can he stay healthy with the style he plays, Marchand has managed to play this style for years hopefully the injuries are in the rear view mirror for Yamo.

  98. Dustylegnd says:

    Twitter update on Jake Sanderson….great at gaining the zone

    https://twitter.com/StarsStripesHKY

  99. JimmyV1965 says:

    k.kause:
    If Yamo is good to go what are people’s thoughts on Yam replacing Chaisson on the PP. Yam got two goals on the PP filling in for Mcdavid and obviously Chaisson plays the net front role which is usually reserved for a bigger body (Chaisson, Neal, etc.). The Oilers PP seems to run more backdoor and tap in plays versus screened shots where a bigger body is more effective.Yam has got quite a few goals in tight in front of the net this year. I’m curious on what you all think.

    I would strongly oppose Yam on the PP as the net front presence. We don’t need Yam on the PP. Using AA as the net front presence makes sense. Not sure if he’s ever done it though.

  100. Reja says:

    JimmyV1965: I would strongly oppose Yam on the PP as the net front presence. We don’t need Yam on the PP. Using AA as the net front presence makes sense. Not sure if he’s ever done it though.

    They have Chase and Neal on the Number one PP for in front net presence I would have to think AA and Yamo on PP2.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    k.kause:
    If Yamo is good to go what are people’s thoughts on Yam replacing Chaisson on the PP. Yam got two goals on the PP filling in for Mcdavid and obviously Chaisson plays the net front role which is usually reserved for a bigger body (Chaisson, Neal, etc.). The Oilers PP seems to run more backdoor and tap in plays versus screened shots where a bigger body is more effective.Yam has got quite a few goals in tight in front of the net this year. I’m curious on what you all think.

    I believe he was on PP1 before he got hurt (after McDavid’s return).

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Actually, maybe I was wrong as Kailer has only played 12 seconds of PP time with McDavid.

    Drai/McDavid/Nuge/Chiasson – 13.39 G/60 (72 minutes)

    Take away Chiasson and it drops to 10.54 G/60 (120 minutes)

    • wolf8888 says:

      Andy Dufresne: ANDY DUFRESNEsays:
      February 28, 2020 at 12:17 pm
      OR, think of it like all of the assets Kinger refers to, the riskier speculative stuff and “the better companies” are in in a really big barrell; a barrell we call “the markets”. And that barrell is about to go over Niagra Falls.

      The smart money was in the bond market for some longish duration of time and is now sitting at the bottom of Niagra falls waiting to pick up the pieces of the barrell as they float by at literally “rock bottom” prices.

      Those investors chose to ignore the froathy white foam on the river that indicates that there is trouble ahead, that is, the waterfall.

      Always remember, the brokerage houses make thier money wether you do well or not. They make thier money on what, in the gambling world is called “the vig”. That is too say, they earn their commisions and fees while the markerts rise, and as the markets go over the falls. Lock Stock and Barrell. Or in this case Stocks Locked in Barrell.

      If you dont beleive me, ask yourself, whats the first thing that people say when they see Niagra Falls for the first time?….You got it….WOW!

      #ContrarianInvesting

      Andy Dufresne: ANDY DUFRESNEsays:
      February 28, 2020 at 12:17 pm
      OR, think of it like all of the assets Kinger refers to, the riskier speculative stuff and “the better companies” are in in a really big barrell; a barrell we call “the markets”. And that barrell is about to go over Niagra Falls.

      The smart money was in the bond market for some longish duration of time and is now sitting at the bottom of Niagra falls waiting to pick up the pieces of the barrell as they float by at literally “rock bottom” prices.

      Those investors chose to ignore the froathy white foam on the river that indicates that there is trouble ahead, that is, the waterfall.

      Always remember, the brokerage houses make thier money wether you do well or not. They make thier money on what, in the gambling world is called “the vig”. That is too say, they earn their commisions and fees while the markerts rise, and as the markets go over the falls. Lock Stock and Barrell. Or in this case Stocks Locked in Barrell.

      If you dont beleive me, ask yourself, whats the first thing that people say when they see Niagra Falls for the first time?….You got it….WOW!

      #ContrarianInvesting

      OriginalPouzar:
      Actually, maybe I was wrong as Kailer has only played 12 seconds of PP time with McDavid.

      Drai/McDavid/Nuge/Chiasson – 13.39 G/60 (72 minutes)

      Take away Chiasson and it drops to 10.54 G/60 (120 minutes)

      OriginalPouzar,

      But then it wouldn’t be a PP 🙂

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I bet you they run with ‘their guy’ in Russell. No question in my mind, Jones has passed him. Awesome that he can hold down 3LD for $900K the next 2 seasons.

    I have that concern and I hope its unfounded – I agree, Jones has passed Rusty on the depth chart:

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/Bear
    Jones/Benning

    Russell

    Also, since I’m doing it:

    AA/McDavid/Kassian (if he gets back to his October/November game)
    Nuge/Drai/Kailer
    Ennis/Sheahan/Archie
    Khaira/Haas/Neal

    Chiasson/Nygard

    If Kassian isn’t able to find his early season game, he and Ennis swap.

    • Faustkarz says:

      I’d argue his oct-nov was just as bad than his recent stretch. After game 4 (oct 12th) and until game 19 (nov 10th), he only had 5 pts in 15 games or so. In comparison, game 37 (dec 23) to the game 52, he had 4 pts.

      So really it his Nov-dec game he needs to get back to, and ~2/3 15 game stretches he has played have been relatively disappointing.

      Nice 17-18 game stretch got him that contract, not like he had too much history playing like that before.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Neal to LTIR seems like the obvious choice, no? Is there any reason they wouldn’t do that?

    Sounds like he’s getting somewhat close to returning as he was at practice today.

    Maybe he’s a week or so away, I don’t know, but he’d be coming off LTIR and the problem would re-establish.

    I think it would be Green to LTIR at this point, no?

    With Detroit retaining half, the cushion would be smaller but I think they could make it work with Lagesson/Granny demoted and off the cap (well, a tiny bit remains for for Granny).

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Listening to Tippett:

    – Yamamoto – will see how it feels tomorrow coming out of practice
    – Russell – first real hard practice today – close
    – Neal – not ready
    – Klef – not ready
    – AA – good to go.

    What I took from this is Russell won’t play tomorrow – I mean, he’s only had one real practice so I think they’ll give him some more time.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Younger Oil:
    With Yamamoto, Kassian, and Anthanasiou all potentially returning tomorrow, I hope that’s the last we’re going to see of Chiasson in the Top 9 for a long, long time.

    Three even strength points since December, 34 games. Even Khaira has more. Can’t PK either. He’d be my top choice to be scratched for the rest of the season.

    I can’t see him in a fully healthy lineup – well, I can see the veteran coach giving the veteran player a spot, I guess, but I don’t think he should.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: With the current coaching staff I find I have very little concern. I have been very pleased with their player useage. They know the players far better than we do at this point and I have trust that they will put players in a position to succeed while not sacraficingteam goals or the future.

    Except for the three weeks of Manning over Lagesson, I do tend to agree.

    The staff has done everything they can to keep Russell at 3LD – it took quite a bit before they moved him to 2RD after the Persson experiment “failed”.

    I’m just not sure how they value Jones and how they value him vis-a-vis Russell.

  108. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    k.kause:
    If Yamo is good to go what are people’s thoughts on Yam replacing Chaisson on the PP. Yam got two goals on the PP filling in for Mcdavid and obviously Chaisson plays the net front role which is usually reserved for a bigger body (Chaisson, Neal, etc.). The Oilers PP seems to run more backdoor and tap in plays versus screened shots where a bigger body is more effective.Yam has got quite a few goals in tight in front of the net this year. I’m curious on what you all think.

    I think it is worth a try. The point of a big body in front of the goalie is screening and tipping. Big guys plant themselves and take some abuse. Someone like KY can also be effective by timing screens and deflections, one does not have to be stationary to be effective in front of the net on the PP. He has great hands and speed to rebounds. Worth a shot. And speaking of shot, I have one left in my barrel for Chia.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Maybe he needs a break from Russian girls, NHL dream and all if he shows good he gets multi year contract the following year from someone. Sleppy plays heavy and hard on the puck exactly what you want in the playoffs to bad so sad he’s not eligible for our run, I could see Tippettt liking and utilizing Sleepy to his strengths. If Sleppy signs next year I’ll put money he scores at least 13 goals.

    Slepy is a family man in Russia – lots of tweets of his girl and kid on social media.

    He seems quite comfortable in life there which is why I asked the question a few weeks ago of any intel that he wants to try the NHL again – from accounts, the answer is yes.

    I don’t disagree, I think he can succeed in this Oiler lineup with this coaching staff.

    I’m not a Todd McLellan basher but I don’t think that coach was right for this player.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Twitter update on Jake Sanderson….great at gaining the zone

    https://twitter.com/StarsStripesHKY

    I liked his dad.

    I like the program of the school he’s going to attend (North Dakota).

    He is in the range of where the Oilers are likely to draft.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Absolute kudos to J. Willis for taking the time to speak to, and write about, Dave Manson. Woody gets s much credit but Manson’s name is not mentioned enough and its great to he’s finally getting a bit of press – well deserved.

    We cannot discount the work Manson has done with Bear, Jones and Lagesson over the last few years and should be very comfortable knowing the likes of Bouchard and Samorukov are under his tutelage.

  112. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sounds like he’s getting somewhat close to returning as he was at practice today.
    Maybe he’s a week or so away, I don’t know, but he’d be coming off LTIR and the problem would re-establish.
    I think it would be Green to LTIR at this point, no?
    With Detroit retaining half, the cushion would be smaller but I think they could make it work with Lagesson/Granny demoted and off the cap (well, a tiny bit remains for for Granny).

    I’d missed that Green is out for a month (haven’t had time to read much of the thread yet). Damn.

    So yeah Green to LTIR would be the obvious move.

    Isn’t that all it takes? If my reading is correct they are using $2.26M in LTIR relief now, so to activate Russell they’ll have to move >$2.26M to LTIR (Green would take care of it) OR assign that much salary to Bakersfield.

    Do they still need to demote Lagesson/Granlund? I’m not seeing why. (for the bonus cushion?)

  113. ArmchairGM says:

    Darth Tu: Yeah, I’m pretty much squinting trying to sell myself that he’s doing extremely well rather than just well.

    We’re never getting a good return on JP are we?

    I’m hearing Ottawa is looking to trade some of their picks for young NHL-ready talent. I’d probably take the OTT 2nd or say the CBJ 2nd + WPG 3rd.

  114. ArmchairGM says:

    Younger Oil:
    With Yamamoto, Kassian, and Anthanasiou all potentially returning tomorrow, I hope that’s the last we’re going to see of Chiasson in the Top 9 for a long, long time.

    Three even strength points since December, 34 games. Even Khaira has more. Can’t PK either. He’d be my top choice to be scratched for the rest of the season.

    You mean “injured.” That’s the way they’ve been doing it this season.

  115. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: I would strongly oppose Yam on the PP as the net front presence. We don’t need Yam on the PP. Using AA as the net front presence makes sense. Not sure if he’s ever done it though.

    Yes, or even Kass could probably do it. I’ve wondered about Nurse too, TBH. A little out-of-the-box, that.

  116. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Listening to Tippett:

    – Yamamoto – will see how it feels tomorrow coming out of practice
    – Russell – first real hard practice today – close
    – Neal – not ready
    – Klef – not ready
    – AA – good to go.

    What I took from this is Russell won’t play tomorrow – I mean, he’s only had one real practice so I think they’ll give him some more time.

    Thanks for the update.

    I’m looking forward to seeing (eventually)

    AA – 97 – 44
    Nuge – 29 – Yamamoto
    Ennis – Sheahan – Archi

    For the top nine

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    fries n gravy:
    Chiarelli wanted “size”, though with exceptions (eg. KY)

    Holland wants “trees”, though with exceptions (eg. Ennis)

    Sorry folks, the narrative isn’t much different.

    Trees?

  118. bsmart says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I could see Holland getting a late first from Ottawa for JP since they have 3 1st’s. I think this would depend on their draft board and who is left when they pick later in the round.

    • Ryan says:

      That would be optimistic imo, but a great outcome. Even a good fit for JP.

      Cast offs often benefit from playing on teams where the roster spots are a plenty.

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ribs: I’ve only seen reference to “the vig” in written form that I can think of. How is it normally pronounced? I see that it is short for “vigorish”, does that mean it’s a hard G? It sounds less cool that way, hah.

    Yes, short for vigorish.

    Pronouncing vig is like fig, but with a v.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I find it interesting that Kassian is playing 3RW and not 1RW.

    I watched Tippett’s presser and the post-practice avail for McDavid as well.

    Tippett had to stop himself from saying it and McDavid was “careful” with his words but the underlying message was “we want the best offensive players available (after loading up Leon’s line) to play with McDavid”

    I not the sure the marginal boost Ennis gives to 97’s over Kassian is more than the marginal boost Ennis would give to Sheahan’s line over Kassian.

    I guess it depends mostly on the matchups.

    I think this is an interesting question.

    “Does Ennis on 97’s line tilt the GF% there more than he would on the 23 line assuming that 44 is the other RW?”

  121. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’ve provided my thoughts on these players in various threads over the days, weeks, months, when the subject comes up and typed up this post, in real time, this morning.

    The blog post we are commenting on specifically talks about these players and their potential futures in the organization.My post seems apt.

    I query, as between my 4 paragraph post on Oilers players, and your post above, which post providessubstance on the subject matter of the blog and which post. well, doesn’t?

    Glad you were able to double post it.
    Wouldn’t want anyone to miss out on your “thoughts”.
    All good.😎

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    In 23 minutes together, Archie/Sheahan/Kass are about 50% posession and 1-0 in goals…. for what its worth, if anything

  123. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Archie, Sheahan and Kass had a short stint together just before the suspension and they looked very effective. This is exactly the line I wanted to see again—to see if they can sustain their earlier success.

    That said I worry about zone presence and cycling without Kass on L1… maybe Ennis is a placeholder there for Neal, dunno….

  124. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I find it interesting that Kassian is playing 3RW and not 1RW.

    I watched Tippett’s presser and the post-practice avail for McDavid as well.

    Tippett had to stop himself from saying it and McDavid was “careful” with his words but the underlying message was “we want the best offensive players available (after loading up Leon’s line) to play with McDavid”

    I not the sure the marginal boost Ennis gives to 97’s over Kassian is more than the marginal boost Ennis would give to Sheahan’s line over Kassian.

    I guess it depends mostly on the matchups.

    I think this is an interesting question.

    “Does Ennis on 97’s line tilt the GF% there more than he would on the 23 line assuming that 44 is the other RW?”

    It’s a quick adjustment if things aren’t working out and I do agree the coach need three lines that work. That third line with Kassian will be a rugged trio, Archibald hits hard and Sheahan is a determined player

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    In 23 minutes together, Archie/Sheahan/Kass are about 50% posession and 1-0 in goals…. for what its worth, if anything

    Thanks for that.

    Early days but a good start

  126. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Trees?

    Future Wood, to you.

    (pun intended)

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: It’s a quick adjustment if things aren’t working out and I do agree the coach need three lines that work. That third line with Kassian will be a rugged trio, Archibald hits hard and Sheahan is a determined player

    Yeah, Kassian adds more “you’ll pay to make that play” to that line and that’s good.

  128. N64 says:

    Munny: Whatever you say, Super Nintendo Chalmers.

    That’s a Bendelsonesque level pun, Munchie.

  129. Rickety Cricket says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    There was some discussion at the tail of yesterday’s thread about EDM’s fancystats this year.

    I thought I’d post some to spur discussion and start fights.

    Here’s one of my favourite fancystats: Relatiave Team Mate Goals +/-/60

    This is the total weighted WOWY of goals for/against per 60 minutes of 5v5 TOI.

    A result of +1.00 or better is pretty outstanding.+0.50 is very good.

    This is the first result I look at when examining a player and then try to find out their “why”

    This is from evolving-hockey.com

    I don’t agree with or like their single output metrics like GAR or WAR, but its a good site for more basic fancystats and the last one (that I know of) that doesRelative Team Mate metrics (total weighted WOWY) rather than just straight Relative (on/off)

    Sample size is 200+ minutes 5v5

    Forwards:
    PlayerRelTM G±/60
    Kailer Yamamoto2.43
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins0.65
    Zack Kassian0.64
    Connor McDavid0.44
    Joakim Nygard0.38
    Alex Chiasson0.25
    Gaetan Haas0.21
    Markus Granlund0.14
    Leon Draisaitl0.08
    Riley Sheahan-0.56
    Patrick Russell-0.60
    Sam Gagner-0.73
    James Neal-0.77
    Josh Archibald-0.89
    Jujhar Khaira-1.51

    The young man at the top of this list ranks 1st in the NHL in this results metric.

    Dmen
    PlayerRelTM G±/60
    Matt Benning1.63
    Caleb Jones0.61
    Kris Russell0.17
    Ethan Bear-0.05
    Darnell Nurse-0.11
    Oscar Klefbom-0.25
    Adam Larsson-0.44

    The young man at the top of this list ranks 1st in the NHL among Dmen and 6th among all NHL players.

    3rd pairing Dmen tend to well in this, but even among 3rd pair Dmen, he knocks it out of the park.

    Also,

    Goals are notoriously noisy (read: variable) in small samples so some might want to use Expected Goals instead.

    Here they are again, but instead of G+/-/60 its xG +/-/60:

    Forwards:
    PlayerRelTM xG±/60
    Joakim Nygard0.60
    Kailer Yamamoto0.46
    Sam Gagner0.32
    Markus Granlund0.19
    Patrick Russell0.19
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins0.16
    Gaetan Haas0.11
    James Neal0.08
    Zack Kassian0.03
    Alex Chiasson-0.04
    Connor McDavid-0.07
    Riley Sheahan-0.14
    Leon Draisaitl-0.16
    Josh Archibald-0.43
    Jujhar Khaira-0.56

    Before you get all up in arms about McDavid, understand that what xGF measures is heavily weighted to shot share.

    McDavid scores *a ton* of goals on rushes and much less of a “ground and pound” type of player.

    This is why his goal results will almost *always* be better than expected goals.

    Dmen:
    PlayerRelTM xG±/60
    Ethan Bear0.06
    Caleb Jones0.05
    Matt Benning0.03
    Oscar Klefbom0.03
    Darnell Nurse-0.02
    Kris Russell-0.03
    Adam Larsson-0.11

    Note:

    Any poster looking at these results and replying with “so you’re that…….” will be summarily shot with a ball of their own shit.

    I am not saying anything. (at least in this post)

    I am posting some interesting results that could be fun to discuss.

    There is no one metric to best judge players, this is just a good starting point to dig into player results.

    I am trying to understand what exactly these numbers mean. To what degree are these numbers a reflection of coaching? Does the WOWY component account for the impact of the quality of competition impacting these numbers? For example, Drai does not show particularly well using this metric, how much of this is the result of his skill or how much is the result of him constantly getting fed tough assignments?

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    MIN up by a couple early on the Jackets.

    If MIN wins they will be 3 behind the Oil with even games.

    The hope is not to be in a wild card position, but keep a division playoff spot, however, who knows how the Pacific Canadian teams will end up……

  131. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    MIN up by a couple early on the Jackets.

    If MIN wins they will be 3 behind the Oil with even games.

    The hope is not to be in a wild card position, but keep a division playoff spot, however, who knows how the Pacific Canadian teams will end up……

    With the Refs slowly putting away the whistles as the season winds down and the injury to Markstrom I see the butter soft Canucks going in a tailspin and only Vegas, Edmonton and Calgary advancing from the Pacific

  132. Munny says:

    N64: That’s a Bendelsonesque level pun, Munchie.

    I can’t believe that pun lasted all day and night without being applied to you, lol. Thought it was an apropos way of ending the thread at any rate.

    Of course, being an N64, you’re a significant improvement over Super Nintendo (Chalmers).

    • N64 says:

      Saw it this morning and sprayed coffee.
      Some year I’ll move on from the Yak handles:
      НИНТЕНДО 64 / МАГИЯ 10 / NIT64 / N64

      • Munny says:

        That would be too bad because seeing your posts always reminds me of him.

        Same with LMHF. I always think of Hemsky when I see a post from (formerly Loud Mouth Hemsky Fan, a long time ago)

        Ladieslovesmid, same.

  133. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja: Teams or still trying to figure out Yamo and his relentless little engine that couldfore-checking, Leon and Nuge are missing Yamoand the turnovers he creates which instantly turn into grade A chances. Whata revelation this kid has been, can he stay healthy with the style he plays, Marchand has managed to play this style for years hopefully the injuries are in the rear view mirror for Yamo.

    Marchand is an inch taller and 25 pounds heavier..

  134. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yes, short for vigorish.

    Pronouncing vig is like fig, but with a v.

    I see you explain this on the daily.

    Where the heck was everyone here when the Sopranos came out?

  135. Side says:

    Harpers Hair: Marchand is an inch taller and 25 pounds heavier..

    One WHOLE inch?!

    Golly gee, Marchand is a giant in comparison!

  136. Bulging Twine says:

    ArmchairGM: Yes, or even Kass could probably do it. I’ve wondered about Nurse too, TBH. A little out-of-the-box, that.

    The Montreal Canadiens under Scotty Bowman used to put big Serge Savard AND Guy Lapointe in front of the net on the PP once in a while and have Larry Robinson hammer it from the point.

  137. Harpers Hair says:

    Side: One WHOLE inch?!

    Golly gee, Marchand is a giant in comparison!

    25 whole pounds is significant especially if its muscle.

    • Ryan says:

      I actually met Marchant in the early 2000’s during his playing days.

      Context. I’m about 6’1” if we’re being 1/4 inch generous.

      Back then, I weighed a lean/muscular 185.

      There’s not a snowballs chance in hell he’s 5’10”.

      I literally towered over him. There’s also no chance he weighed 10lbs less than me either.

      Zero.

      I was at least 5-6 inches taller and 25 lbs heavier, if not more.

  138. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I remember you and I have a discussion here about something or other cough… Aberg. Not important.

    You accused me of “results based thinking.”

    For dmen, the “ Relative Team Mate metrics (total weighted WOWY)” metric imputes the epitome of that.

    Any stat that ranks the Oilers best defenseman as their second worst and vice versa… is unadulterated manure.

    For forwards, it seems to do a decent result of sifting out the bottom of the roster, but not much more.

    Clever people, no matter how smart, are still only able to calculate the transactions that occur on the ice independent from the forces that actually cause them to occur…

    A rising tide floats all boats…

  139. Side says:

    Harpers Hair: 25 whole pounds is significant especially if its muscle.

    25 WHOLE pounds of MAYBE ALL muscle?

    Well, I guess that settles that.

  140. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: 25 whole pounds is significant especially if its muscle.

    I betcha Yamo will be close to 170 next season. I wonder how much Marchand weighed coming out of junior.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    I sense a picture of Martin St. Louis’ quads is going to be posted soon.

  142. Reja says:

    Bulging Twine: The Montreal Canadiens under Scotty Bowman used to put big Serge Savard AND Guy Lapointe in front of the net on the PP once in a while and have Larry Robinson hammer it from the point.

    I remember the big bird was used in front as well.

  143. Side says:

    It’s always amusing to me when someone uses the height and weight of an athlete they find on google to make an argument. Considering that those numbers are often inaccurate.

    Especially when that argument is over 1 WHOLE inch and 25 WHOLE pounds!

  144. Pescador says:

    Ryan: I see you explain this on the daily.

    Where the heck was everyone here when the Sopranos came out?

    22 years old in my girlfriend’s bedroom, on a Sunday night.
    Broadcast was on CTV, channel 2 in my town.
    I could not get over the fact that epic show with all its glorious profanity, nudity & violence was being aired on network television.
    Needless to say, I was in heaven

  145. Side says:

    Ryan:
    I actually met Marchant in the early 2000’s during his playing days.

    Context. I’m about 6’1” if we’re being 1/4 inch generous.

    Back then, I weighted a lean/muscular 185.

    There’s not a snowballs chance in hell he’s 5’10”.

    I literally towered over him. There’s also no chance he weighed 10lbs less than me either.

    Zero.

    I was at least 5-6 inches taller and 25 lbs heavier, if not more.

    Inaccurate heights and weights listed for profeasional athletes is incredibly common and they are often exaggerated. I witnessed this as well when I saw Eberle and Hall in street clothes. But Zack Stortini I felt was smaller than his given height and weight indicated. The guy seemed much bigger in person.

  146. Pescador says:

    Darth Tu: Yeah, I’m pretty much squinting trying to sell myself that he’s doing extremely well rather than just well.

    We’re never getting a good return on JP are we?

    dustrock: We’ll get a 2nd in this year’s draft.

    Yes we will,
    From Detroit, they have an extra 2nd in this years draft

  147. Side says:

    HH you may want to have a seat before reading this….

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23913544/the-body-issue-getting-athlete-real-measurements-rarely-easy

    It’s okay to feel betrayed and fooled.

    Marchand seems like the kind of guy who probably ate a full meal and drank a couple of gallons of water before stepping on the scale. Probably stood on his tippy toes getting his height taken as well.

  148. Bulging Twine says:

    Ennis already had a condo in Edmonton

  149. hunter1909 says:

    Reja: I betcha Yamo will be close to 170 next season. I wonder how much Marchand weighed coming out of junior.

    145 to 170 he’s going to end up like Sam Gagner when he tried to bulk up instead of letting time take its natural course weight wise. Or Luke Schenn, who went from fantastic early career defenceman to plug after turning up like a weight lifter for training camp.

    Yamamoto’s already doing fine. He’s scoring in the NHL which validates him completely. 4-5 pounds weight gain per year is normal, not freaking 25 pounds. Then again a lot of people including hockey players are stupid. Anything is possible.

  150. Bank Shot says:

    hunter1909: 145 to 170 he’s going to end up like Sam Gagner when he tried to bulk up instead of letting time take its natural course weight wise. Or Luke Schenn, who went from fantastic early career defenceman to plug after turning up like a weight lifter for training camp.

    Yamamoto’s already doing fine. He’s scoring in the NHL which validates him completely. 4-5 pounds weight gain per year is normal, not freaking 25 pounds. Then again a lot of people including hockey players are stupid. Anything is possible.

    Gagner was always slow even when he was lighter. I think he actually got faster as he bulked up.

    Yamamoto is effective. It doesn’t matter how big he is. The injury was a fluke thing.

  151. jp says:

    Reja:
    Sleppy plays heavy and hard on the puck exactly what you want in the playoffs to bad so sad he’s not eligible for our run, I could see Tippettt liking and utilizing Sleepy to his strengths. If Sleppy signs next year I’ll put money he scores at least 13 goals.

    Slepyshev definitely seems to have taken a big step forward in the KHL. I agree, I think Tippett would/will like him. I’d absolutely love to see him back.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: I betcha Yamo will be close to 170 next season. I wonder how much Marchand weighed coming out of junior.

    If he’s at 158, sorry, but there is no way he adds 12 pounds to that frame – i don’t think.

    Kailer will be fine – he’ll continue to learn how to play his game but protect himself. WIll have to pick his spots a bit more but he’ll figure it out.

    • Faustkarz says:

      Maybe not over an offseason, without it being mostly fat gain, but I doubt one would look at kailer and feel his frame is maxed out size wise; he does have a rather gracile frame to begin with I’d estimate his max healthy weight at around 170 though..no gargantuan leg work which helps say darren sproles at that height

  153. Ben says:

    Not sure if “ground and pound” is a mixed metaphor or just dang bad English-talkin’, but it makes me grind and pind my teeth.

  154. Jaxon says:

    Full health roster I’d like to see:

    Athanasiou / McDavid / Kassian
    Chiasson / Draisaitl / Yamamoto
    Ennis / Nugent-Hopkins / Neal
    Slepyshev / Sheahan / Archibald

    Klefbom / Larsson
    Nurse / Bear
    Jones / Green

    And if anyone in the top 9 faltered, Slepyshev would get some at bats.

  155. Bulging Twine says:

    Good video on Seth Jarvis

    By Draft Dynasty

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I29gOj8XGx4&feature=youtu.be

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    BUF up early 1-0 on VEG.

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    Check that – tie game.

  158. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Ben,

    It comes from MMA where you successfully execute a takedown ending in a top position and unleash a flury of strikes onto your opponent looking for an injury, submission/stoppage or knockout.

  159. Pescador says:

    jp: Slepyshev definitely seems to have taken a big step forward in the KHL. I agree, I think Tippett would/will like him. I’d absolutely love to see him back.

    Imagine if the organization had been as patient with Slepyshev as they’ve been with Benson?
    And vise versa

  160. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Check that – tie game.

    Meh, Buffalo got the bounce the Oilers didn’t.
    Vergerville will kick it up 12 notches in the second
    I’m sure the end result will be the same

  161. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: If he’s at 158, sorry, but there is no way he adds 12 pounds to that frame – i don’t think.

    Kailer will be fine – he’ll continue to learn how to play his game but protect himself.WIll have to pick his spots a bit more but he’ll figure it out.

    I went from 135 to 175. 5’10 so height advantage but he could definitely add muscle to his frame

  162. jp says:

    Ryan:
    Thanks for the update.
    I’m looking forward to seeing (eventually)
    AA – 97 – 44
    Nuge – 29 – Yamamoto
    Ennis – Sheahan – Archi
    For the top nine

    It’s a bit dizzying to see this Oilers team transform so quickly. A few moves at the trade deadline and boom, the team is playoff deep (on paper at least, and if they ever get healthy). But damn do they ever look good.

    Add in Khaira-Haas-Neal or Neal-Haas-Chiasson as a likely plus 4th line. Plus Nygard, Granlund, P. Russell, Benson as extras.

    And the D:
    Nurse-Bear
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Russell-Green
    Jones-Benning
    Lagesson-(Bouchard)

    So much depth. And quality depth. We’ll see if it all falls into place, but it sure looks like Holland (in 10 months) pulled this team from the ashes and built it into something that looks ready for a long playoff run. Impressive.

  163. jp says:

    Pescador: Imagine if the organization had been as patient with Slepyshev as they’ve been with Benson?
    And vise versa

    Hmmm.

    They actually were just as patient with Slepyshev as Benson.

    Benson played draft +1 and +2 in the WHL. He’s now in year 2 of his 3 year ELC. He’s still 21 (turns 22 in a couple of weeks).

    Slepyshev (who was a lower pick and drafted at age 19) played draft +1 and +2 in the KHL. He arrived in the AHL one year later than Benson but then played all 3 years in Bakersfield or Edmonton.

    Slepyshev’s age 21 season (like Benson this year) was spent mostly in Bakersfield with 11 NHL games (actually at the start of the season). He then played the 2nd and 3rd years of his ELC mostly with the Oilers. And then headed back to Europe.

    They’re actually a very close match for each other through age 21, and then Slepyshev got 2 more years to prove what he could do (not a ton – he scored 10 goals and 23 points across 101 NHL games).

    • Pescador says:

      Hmmm.
      Good point(s)
      Thank-you for the player history that you laid out (perfectly) in your post.
      I thought Slepyshev needed more time or “patience” in the lineup before he was demoted to the AHL in his final season.
      Kinda like JJ or P.Russell this season.
      Flattop used him in the top 6 or sat him in the pressbox.
      Probably a coaching failure, shocking revelation I’m sure.
      I always thought Slepyshev would be an excellent 4th line winger with his skill set & speed.
      I hope he makes his way back next season, I bet he would flourish under coach Tippett

      • jp says:

        Yes for sure, he could have used even more patience in the lineup. And agreed that Slepyshev could have been (will be!) a quality depth winger.

  164. Munny says:

    Ryan:
    Nicely done!

    Right? You couldn’t not watch that show, it was crazy.

    Sopranos was a soap opera dressed up to appeal to males. I’ve tried to watch it but, have never made it through a full episode.

    • Munny says:

      (Of course, if I was 22 and in my GF’s bedroom, like Pescy, the TV could be on whatever program she wanted—as long as it had commercials, hehe.)

      • Pescador says:

        What?
        It was a gangster flick, wrapped in an hour.
        On network TV, for the love of God!!!!@
        Did you miss the part about how the show contains scenes of Violence, Course language & Nudity?
        Haha, other way around
        I made her watch it

  165. Ryan says:

    jp: It’s a bit dizzying to see this Oilers team transform so quickly. A few moves at the trade deadline and boom, the team is playoff deep (on paper at least, and if they ever get healthy). But damn do they ever look good.

    Add in Khaira-Haas-Neal or Neal-Haas-Chiasson as a likely plus 4th line. Plus Nygard, Granlund, P. Russell, Benson as extras.

    And the D:
    Nurse-Bear
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Russell-Green
    Jones-Benning
    Lagesson-(Bouchard)

    So much depth. And quality depth. We’ll see if it all falls into place, but it sure looks like Holland (in 10 months) pulled this team from the ashes and built it into something that looks ready for a long playoff run. Impressive.

    Agreed, Holland has done some impressive work under very difficult circumstances.

    Depth. There’s so much depth everywhere. I agree, that’s 10 serviceable d pairs. We’ve never seen anything like it.

    Chiarelli did an amazing job at leaving land mines nearly everywhere.

    The buyout-proof Lucic contract.

    The Russell contract with the last year signing bonus.

    No goalies of NHL caliber in the system (ready to challenge for the NHL)

    The Manning acquisition.

    The Spooner trade depleting the team of a right shot 3 c who was capable of playing up the lineup.

    No actual top six wingers on the roster.

    No cap space.

    It goes on.

    The last big puzzle for Holland to solve is the Koskinen situation.

    He’s not very good and he has $4.5m cap hit for two more years.

    Not only did Chiarelli sign that contract for too long and too many dollars, but he threw in the old poison pill signing bonus next year to make the contract buyout proof until the last year.

    Using a cutoff of 1000 minutes, Koskinen is 37th in the league at 5v5 sv%

    That’s the next weak link to deal with.

    Mercurial Mike is 49th.

    Our goaltending is subpar and like many things Chiarelli has put a road block in front of the road to improvement.

    • Munny says:

      The whole team is subpar at 5v5. I don’t think that save percentage is going to tell us the whole kit and kaboodle there.

      • Ryan says:

        Goaltending is still our weakest link.

        Jersey’s a tire fire, but they have McKenzie Blackwood who has the 9th best 5v5 sv% in the league.

        Having poor goaltending exacerbates our difficulties at 5v5.

    • jp says:

      It really is very impressive what Holland has done, without spending major assets either.

      And agreed that goaltending is another issue that Holland will (may) have to solve going forward.

      (“may” only because Holland has run with non-elite goaltending in the pasts, so maybe Koskinen is “good enough” in his mind)

  166. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I sense a picture of Martin St. Louis’ quads is going to be posted soon.

    My fucking Gord a joke!

    *checks calendar*

    End of the week… End of the month…

    Cap floor issue?

    More jokes and familiarity in your posts please, OP. You’re not actually wearing your tie when you post here. Show us a little more dressing-room you.

    *glovetap*

  167. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Rickety Cricket: I am trying to understand what exactly these numbers mean. To what degree are these numbers a reflection of coaching? Does the WOWY component account for the impact of the quality of competition impacting these numbers? For example, Drai does not show particularly well using this metric, how much of this is the result of his skill or how much is the result of him constantly getting fed tough assignments?

    All good questions and those lie at the heart of the debate about this stuff.

    Re: Leon – his December was an unmitigated disaster. Take that out and he’s probably at or near the top.

  168. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I remember you and I have a discussion here about something or other cough… Aberg. Not important.

    You accused me of “results based thinking.”

    For dmen,the “ Relative Team Mate metrics (total weighted WOWY)” metric imputes the epitome of that.

    Any stat that ranks the Oilers best defenseman as their second worst and vice versa… is unadulterated manure.

    For forwards, it seems to do a decent result of sifting out the bottom of the roster, but not much more.

    Clever people, no matter how smart, are still only able to calculate the transactions that occur on the ice independent from the forces that actually cause them to occur…

    A rising tide floats all boats…

    That’s why I posted both Actual Goals and Expected Goals.

    Goals are the results.

    Expected Goals are the process. (not perfectly, but its as close as we have)

    Also,

    Your value judgement about Klefbom being the best Oiler Dman is just that. Your judgement and opinion.

    Klef’s goal share has been poor in every season relative to his team.

    Most chaulk that up to him playing tougher minutes with poor partners, but most of the stain never seems to land on him.

    I like Klef a lot too, but historically the Oiler players score less when he’s on the ice and get scored on more.

    Also,

    Even though I explicitly stated:

    Any poster looking at these results and replying with “so you’re that…….” will be summarily shot with a ball of their own shit.

    I am not saying anything. (at least in this post)

    I am posting some interesting results that could be fun to discuss.

    There is no one metric to best judge players, this is just a good starting point to dig into player results.

    You still came back with “so you’re saying Klefbom is bad so this metric is shit”

    “These results of what happens on the ice differ with my opinion of the player so I’m going to shit on the metric and declare it bad”

    Its ok that your feelings about a player trumps their results in your mind as that is your choice.

  169. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: I also hate it when people criticize stats with opinions. It’s a little obnoxious… pretentious and I know you hate it too.

    However, when I say that Klefbomb is currently the Oilers best defenseman, it’s not my opinion that I am stating.

    It’s Dave Tippett’s.

    25:35 all strengths Toi/60.

    #1 on the team.

    You know me by now here. I still rate Toi/GP as the best measure for defenseman (relative to their teammates only).

    I can’t pull their win loss record without him, but I to my recollection, it’s it not good either.

    Back to my previous point, the limitations of current advanced stats is that they can only calculate the transactions as they actually occur on the ice.

    I really like that you’re attempting to correct for on the fly shifts and quality of comp.

    With Matt Benning, we know the on ice results are great, best on our team, in fact.

    Even a glance at plus minus will tell us that. Benning is plus 9 and Klefbomb is minus 20.

    I didn’t have time to look at the second set of stats, but in the days of yore here,they used to use “smell test” for stats.

    Your first stat for dmen, didn’t pass the smell test bin ranking Benning first.

    It’s based upon results based thinking.

    It’s one of Coughlin’s laws. 🙂

    If the ranking of a team’s group of defenseman correlates stronger with their plus plus minus ranking than Toi/g played ranking, there’s something amiss.

    I mean really?

    How do you defend a stat that presupposes that a 13 minute defenseman is the best defenseman on a team or better than a 25 minute per minute dman?

    Never mind that Benning plays the weakest against elites at puckiq.

    Or that it rates Russell ahead of anyone let alone Bear, Nurse, and Larsson.

    – – –

    Also, many of the fancy stats writers, particularly those who don’t watch the Oilers criticize Draisatl for his poor defensive play.

    One issue, not only does Draisatl not only lead the entire league in Toi/gp (22:41) that’s only based upon his average time on ice.

    I don’t know how to pull the data, but it would be interesting to see a chart with his total Toi /g for each game vs his competitors for the hart trophy.

    I.e. how many games has he played nearing 30 minutes vs the other guys?

    “How do you defend a stat that presupposes that a 13 minute defenseman is the best defenseman on a team or better than a 25 minute per minute dman?

    I posted this in the first post.

    I posted this in the second post.

    I’ll post it again so you can read it and internalize it:

    There is no one metric to best judge players, this is just a good starting point to dig into player results.

    So if you disagree with the results, you “why”?

    We *know* why Benning (and many 3rd pairing Dmen) look good via Relative Teammate Goals and many other fancystats.

    Coaches shelter them and give them advantageous deployment.

    Its was exactly that fact (3rd pairing Dmen’s results consistently being good on many teams) that lead Tyler to try to figure out “why” and let us at puckiq to something similar and make the results public.

    Many twitterlytics type people declared that NHL coaches were stupid and didn’t deploy their players properly. This was wrong. The correct course of action was to ask “why?” and figure it out.

    So you keep asking me to defend a metric like I posted it as the end-all-be-all player rating of all time and I didn’t do that AND I took pains to state that as well.

    I’m really quite surprised.

    • Ryan says:

      If you don’t remember Coughlin’s laws, you’re missing out. 🙂 That was a good movie back in the day.

      Defensemen are notoriously difficult to analyze.

      I applaud what you’ve done with PuckIQ for answering the why. I said that on my post. I think we’re basically on the same page overall.

      As I’ve said with Draisaitl example, many advanced stats guys (the influential ones in the media particularly) just look at his actual results and conclude he’s crappy defensively.

      They don’t ask ‘why’ and look at all the games he plays more minutes than a first pairing defenseman.

      • Woodguy v2.0 says:

        Thanks.

        Don’t confuse “twitterlytics” stuff like GAR or WAR with good analysis.

        Those models are severely flawed because they don’t do a good job quantifying QoC and more difficult minutes.

        A corsi against Bergeron is not the same as a corsi against Haas.

        Those use *some* QoC modifier, but usually they use TOI which is terrible for a whole population of players. Dmen TOI has nothing to do with Forward TOI and that’s the biggest problem with using TOI.

        We’re coming out with shift data soon and that will help even more

  170. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    As for Klef’s TOI/gm

    We see this:

    5v5 TOI/gm
    Nurse 19:03
    Bear 18:06
    Klefbom 17:51

    The results data I posted was all 5v5.

    • Ryan says:

      Yeah, I noticed that too.

      The thing is that Klefbom plays the most PP and PK minutes, so it’s understandable that the coaching staff have him third at 5v5 to limit his overall minutes.

      Klefbom is deployed 3:37 on the PP per game which is a full 2:37 more than the next player (Nurse 1:00).

      On the PK, Klefbomb is also number one on the Oilers.

      Klefbomb is 5th in the league at total toi/game at 25:35

      Chabot plays 25:58 which is first in the league.

      I think part of Klefbom’s reduced toi at 5v5 is due to the lack of a second PP unit.

      Bear is a player that the sooner we extend his contract, the better.

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    If I’m not mistaken:

    – Nurse/Bear also get a material portion of their minutes with the McDavid line

    – Klef/X generally get the opposition’s top line more than any other pairing

    • Ryan says:

      I think you’re right about the first part for sure.

      From Puck IQ, Nurse/Bear play a little more time against Elites.

      Klefbomb also mostly plays with Larsson.

      We know Larsson has not been good for a long time.

      Remember in McDavid’s rookie season, there was some hoopla about the Oilers having a harder time winning without Klefbomb than McDavid?

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