You can see it coming, although the Oilers don’t have 12 burners up front and haven’t acquired six elite outlet passers. The Chiarelli “size” Oilers are being replaced by a quicker, more skilled group in a realignment that will hopefully bring glory to the Edmonton NHL franchise.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2017 draft and the value of waiting five years
- New Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ AHL factory has produced three NHL defencemen, with more on the way
- Jonathan Willis: Andreas Athanasiou injured, Mike Green elevated in Oilers’ loss to Vegas
- Lowetide: Andreas Athanasiou acquisition might give the Oilers a scoring winger for McDavid cluster.
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers salvage a point as newcomers settle in (and produce) with Connor McDavid
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Are Oilers poised for a long playoff run after Ken Holland’s deadline moves?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers trade deadline active, targeted and predictable
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Andreas Athanasiou acquisition the most intriguing deadline move for Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Shrewd addition of Tyler Ennis gives the Oilers insurance, options up front
- Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid returns to the Oilers; now the task is to get him linemates
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers bolster blue line by acquiring Mike Green; Is a scoring winger next?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ European prospects offer interesting options for the future
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
- Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
NHLE EURO FORWARDS
The interest surrounding Anton Slepyshev made be well founded, as the Russian winger is playing well in the KHL (54, 18-27-45). That works out to NHLE 54.9 and at 25 the big winger might be ready to have another shot at the NHL. Jesse Puljujarvi is also having an impact season in Europe, as he has posted 21-28-49 in 50 games (NHLE 36.3). Young center Maxim Denezhkin (50, 19-22-41) is playing well in the MHL, his NHLE (12.1) suggests the 19 year old may have a future.
NHLE EURO DEFENSE
RH Filip Berglund is a player I liked in his draft year (had him No. 61) and he’s had some ups and downs in Sweden over his career. His numbers this season (46, 5-13-18 and an NHLE of 19.1) makes his signing likely. LH Philip Broberg (39, 0-6-6 and an NHLE of 7.5) is about what you’d expect from a Swedish defender who doesn’t get power-play time. I’m impressed with his offense, it’s better than expected. Markus Niemelainen is a shutdown blue in the Liiga (51, 0-6-6 NHLE: 4.4) who might also sign.
CHL FORWARDS
Raphael Lavoie probably turns pro as a winger and my guess is he gets the Tyler Benson treatment as opposed to the Kirill Maksimov package. His QMJHL season (49, 32-40-72, 34.2 NHLE) suggests he is in the range with Benson in his final junior season (29.5 NHLE).
AHL FORWARDS
Tyler Benson made his NHL debut this month, and is now back in the AHL. His season (43, 9-27-36, NHLE 33.4) is slightly off compared to a year ago but the Condors aren’t as good a team this year. Ryan McLeod (52, 5-17-22 NHLE 16.9) is scoring at a higher level than I thought he would in year one pro. Kirill Maksimov (49, 5-8-13 NHLE: 10.6) is shy of what most of us expected. Speaking of struggle, Cooper Marody (30, 5-12-17 NHLE: 22.6) has battled injury and has been unable to push for NHL work this season.
AHL DEFENSE
RH Evan Bouchard (50, 7-26-33 NHLE 26.3) is the top prospect in the system and is NHL ready. LH Dmitri Samorukov (43, 2-7-9 NHLE 8.3) is a little under the radar but a quality prospect.
LINES AND PAIRS
Assuming Andreas Athanasiou is healthy enough to play, we should see more than one line shuffling tomorrow night. Zack Kassian draws in and that should bump a few people down the depth chart. Here’s how I think the lines and pairs might look Saturday against Winnipeg.
Andreas Athanasiou—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian. I think Ennis has been the better winger of the two new guys, but the second line needs a spark.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Leon Draisaitl—Tyler Ennis. The closest thing to Yamamoto this side of Yamamoto, this line has been a key element in recent weeks.
Josh Archibald—Riley Sheahan—Alex Chiasson. This trio hasn’t played much together but they’re all veterans and bring something to the trio. Where have you gone Joakim Nygard??
Jujhar Khaira—Gaetan Haas—Patrick Russell. Khaira has played well in a small sample with Haas.
Darnell Nurse—Ethan Bear. Ideally both men have their TOI reduced by effective play of other pairs.
Caleb Jones—Mike Green. These two had good results together the other night, I’d like to see them again. Nice rookie/veteran combination,, could benefit Jones in a big way.
William Lagesson—Adam Larsson. Another rookie/veteran combination, I like this pairing because Lagesson can move the puck better than first thought upon arrival.
When everyone is healthy, I think Neal and Kassian may be forced into depth roles. AA-97-Ennis and Nuge-Leon-KY would seem to be the ideal power trios on the skill lines.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s Friday, time to kick back and enjoy spring along with another giant snowfall. We get rolling at 10 this morning, TSN1260. We’ll invite Steve Lansky to make sense of the trade deadline and the race in the Pacific Division. Murat Ates from The Athletic will join us to preview Saturday night’s game and tell us why he asked Paul Maurice a question in Klingon the other day. Matt Iwanyk, who ironically speaks his own language, will pop in to talk Oilers and Tom Brady’s future. We may also have an NBA guest, depending on how I feel about the 76ers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. We’re mere minutes from the weekend!
If I’m not mistaken:
– Nurse/Bear also get a material portion of their minutes with the McDavid line
– Klef/X generally get the opposition’s top line more than any other pairing
I think you’re right about the first part for sure.
From Puck IQ, Nurse/Bear play a little more time against Elites.
Klefbomb also mostly plays with Larsson.
We know Larsson has not been good for a long time.
Remember in McDavid’s rookie season, there was some hoopla about the Oilers having a harder time winning without Klefbomb than McDavid?
As for Klef’s TOI/gm
We see this:
5v5 TOI/gm
Nurse 19:03
Bear 18:06
Klefbom 17:51
The results data I posted was all 5v5.
Yeah, I noticed that too.
The thing is that Klefbom plays the most PP and PK minutes, so it’s understandable that the coaching staff have him third at 5v5 to limit his overall minutes.
Klefbom is deployed 3:37 on the PP per game which is a full 2:37 more than the next player (Nurse 1:00).
On the PK, Klefbomb is also number one on the Oilers.
Klefbomb is 5th in the league at total toi/game at 25:35
Chabot plays 25:58 which is first in the league.
I think part of Klefbom’s reduced toi at 5v5 is due to the lack of a second PP unit.
Bear is a player that the sooner we extend his contract, the better.
“How do you defend a stat that presupposes that a 13 minute defenseman is the best defenseman on a team or better than a 25 minute per minute dman?
I posted this in the first post.
I posted this in the second post.
I’ll post it again so you can read it and internalize it:
There is no one metric to best judge players, this is just a good starting point to dig into player results.
So if you disagree with the results, you “why”?
We *know* why Benning (and many 3rd pairing Dmen) look good via Relative Teammate Goals and many other fancystats.
Coaches shelter them and give them advantageous deployment.
Its was exactly that fact (3rd pairing Dmen’s results consistently being good on many teams) that lead Tyler to try to figure out “why” and let us at puckiq to something similar and make the results public.
Many twitterlytics type people declared that NHL coaches were stupid and didn’t deploy their players properly. This was wrong. The correct course of action was to ask “why?” and figure it out.
So you keep asking me to defend a metric like I posted it as the end-all-be-all player rating of all time and I didn’t do that AND I took pains to state that as well.
I’m really quite surprised.
If you don’t remember Coughlin’s laws, you’re missing out. 🙂 That was a good movie back in the day.
Defensemen are notoriously difficult to analyze.
I applaud what you’ve done with PuckIQ for answering the why. I said that on my post. I think we’re basically on the same page overall.
As I’ve said with Draisaitl example, many advanced stats guys (the influential ones in the media particularly) just look at his actual results and conclude he’s crappy defensively.
They don’t ask ‘why’ and look at all the games he plays more minutes than a first pairing defenseman.
Thanks.
Don’t confuse “twitterlytics” stuff like GAR or WAR with good analysis.
Those models are severely flawed because they don’t do a good job quantifying QoC and more difficult minutes.
A corsi against Bergeron is not the same as a corsi against Haas.
Those use *some* QoC modifier, but usually they use TOI which is terrible for a whole population of players. Dmen TOI has nothing to do with Forward TOI and that’s the biggest problem with using TOI.
We’re coming out with shift data soon and that will help even more
That’s why I posted both Actual Goals and Expected Goals.
Goals are the results.
Expected Goals are the process. (not perfectly, but its as close as we have)
Also,
Your value judgement about Klefbom being the best Oiler Dman is just that. Your judgement and opinion.
Klef’s goal share has been poor in every season relative to his team.
Most chaulk that up to him playing tougher minutes with poor partners, but most of the stain never seems to land on him.
I like Klef a lot too, but historically the Oiler players score less when he’s on the ice and get scored on more.
Also,
Even though I explicitly stated:
Any poster looking at these results and replying with “so you’re that…….” will be summarily shot with a ball of their own shit.
I am not saying anything. (at least in this post)
I am posting some interesting results that could be fun to discuss.
There is no one metric to best judge players, this is just a good starting point to dig into player results.
You still came back with “so you’re saying Klefbom is bad so this metric is shit”
“These results of what happens on the ice differ with my opinion of the player so I’m going to shit on the metric and declare it bad”
Its ok that your feelings about a player trumps their results in your mind as that is your choice.
All good questions and those lie at the heart of the debate about this stuff.
Re: Leon – his December was an unmitigated disaster. Take that out and he’s probably at or near the top.
My fucking Gord a joke!
*checks calendar*
End of the week… End of the month…
Cap floor issue?
More jokes and familiarity in your posts please, OP. You’re not actually wearing your tie when you post here. Show us a little more dressing-room you.
*glovetap*
Agreed, Holland has done some impressive work under very difficult circumstances.
Depth. There’s so much depth everywhere. I agree, that’s 10 serviceable d pairs. We’ve never seen anything like it.
Chiarelli did an amazing job at leaving land mines nearly everywhere.
The buyout-proof Lucic contract.
The Russell contract with the last year signing bonus.
No goalies of NHL caliber in the system (ready to challenge for the NHL)
The Manning acquisition.
The Spooner trade depleting the team of a right shot 3 c who was capable of playing up the lineup.
No actual top six wingers on the roster.
No cap space.
It goes on.
The last big puzzle for Holland to solve is the Koskinen situation.
He’s not very good and he has $4.5m cap hit for two more years.
Not only did Chiarelli sign that contract for too long and too many dollars, but he threw in the old poison pill signing bonus next year to make the contract buyout proof until the last year.
Using a cutoff of 1000 minutes, Koskinen is 37th in the league at 5v5 sv%
That’s the next weak link to deal with.
Mercurial Mike is 49th.
Our goaltending is subpar and like many things Chiarelli has put a road block in front of the road to improvement.
The whole team is subpar at 5v5. I don’t think that save percentage is going to tell us the whole kit and kaboodle there.
Goaltending is still our weakest link.
Jersey’s a tire fire, but they have McKenzie Blackwood who has the 9th best 5v5 sv% in the league.
Having poor goaltending exacerbates our difficulties at 5v5.
It really is very impressive what Holland has done, without spending major assets either.
And agreed that goaltending is another issue that Holland will (may) have to solve going forward.
(“may” only because Holland has run with non-elite goaltending in the pasts, so maybe Koskinen is “good enough” in his mind)
Sopranos was a soap opera dressed up to appeal to males. I’ve tried to watch it but, have never made it through a full episode.
(Of course, if I was 22 and in my GF’s bedroom, like Pescy, the TV could be on whatever program she wanted—as long as it had commercials, hehe.)
What?
It was a gangster flick, wrapped in an hour.
On network TV, for the love of God!!!!@
Did you miss the part about how the show contains scenes of Violence, Course language & Nudity?
Haha, other way around
I made her watch it
Hmmm.
They actually were just as patient with Slepyshev as Benson.
Benson played draft +1 and +2 in the WHL. He’s now in year 2 of his 3 year ELC. He’s still 21 (turns 22 in a couple of weeks).
Slepyshev (who was a lower pick and drafted at age 19) played draft +1 and +2 in the KHL. He arrived in the AHL one year later than Benson but then played all 3 years in Bakersfield or Edmonton.
Slepyshev’s age 21 season (like Benson this year) was spent mostly in Bakersfield with 11 NHL games (actually at the start of the season). He then played the 2nd and 3rd years of his ELC mostly with the Oilers. And then headed back to Europe.
They’re actually a very close match for each other through age 21, and then Slepyshev got 2 more years to prove what he could do (not a ton – he scored 10 goals and 23 points across 101 NHL games).
Hmmm.
Good point(s)
Thank-you for the player history that you laid out (perfectly) in your post.
I thought Slepyshev needed more time or “patience” in the lineup before he was demoted to the AHL in his final season.
Kinda like JJ or P.Russell this season.
Flattop used him in the top 6 or sat him in the pressbox.
Probably a coaching failure, shocking revelation I’m sure.
I always thought Slepyshev would be an excellent 4th line winger with his skill set & speed.
I hope he makes his way back next season, I bet he would flourish under coach Tippett
Yes for sure, he could have used even more patience in the lineup. And agreed that Slepyshev could have been (will be!) a quality depth winger.
It’s a bit dizzying to see this Oilers team transform so quickly. A few moves at the trade deadline and boom, the team is playoff deep (on paper at least, and if they ever get healthy). But damn do they ever look good.
Add in Khaira-Haas-Neal or Neal-Haas-Chiasson as a likely plus 4th line. Plus Nygard, Granlund, P. Russell, Benson as extras.
And the D:
Nurse-Bear
Klefbom-Larsson
Russell-Green
Jones-Benning
Lagesson-(Bouchard)
So much depth. And quality depth. We’ll see if it all falls into place, but it sure looks like Holland (in 10 months) pulled this team from the ashes and built it into something that looks ready for a long playoff run. Impressive.
I went from 135 to 175. 5’10 so height advantage but he could definitely add muscle to his frame
Meh, Buffalo got the bounce the Oilers didn’t.
Vergerville will kick it up 12 notches in the second
I’m sure the end result will be the same
Imagine if the organization had been as patient with Slepyshev as they’ve been with Benson?
And vise versa
Ben,
It comes from MMA where you successfully execute a takedown ending in a top position and unleash a flury of strikes onto your opponent looking for an injury, submission/stoppage or knockout.
Check that – tie game.
BUF up early 1-0 on VEG.
Good video on Seth Jarvis
By Draft Dynasty
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I29gOj8XGx4&feature=youtu.be
Full health roster I’d like to see:
Athanasiou / McDavid / Kassian
Chiasson / Draisaitl / Yamamoto
Ennis / Nugent-Hopkins / Neal
Slepyshev / Sheahan / Archibald
Klefbom / Larsson
Nurse / Bear
Jones / Green
And if anyone in the top 9 faltered, Slepyshev would get some at bats.
Not sure if “ground and pound” is a mixed metaphor or just dang bad English-talkin’, but it makes me grind and pind my teeth.
If he’s at 158, sorry, but there is no way he adds 12 pounds to that frame – i don’t think.
Kailer will be fine – he’ll continue to learn how to play his game but protect himself. WIll have to pick his spots a bit more but he’ll figure it out.
Maybe not over an offseason, without it being mostly fat gain, but I doubt one would look at kailer and feel his frame is maxed out size wise; he does have a rather gracile frame to begin with I’d estimate his max healthy weight at around 170 though..no gargantuan leg work which helps say darren sproles at that height
Slepyshev definitely seems to have taken a big step forward in the KHL. I agree, I think Tippett would/will like him. I’d absolutely love to see him back.
Gagner was always slow even when he was lighter. I think he actually got faster as he bulked up.
Yamamoto is effective. It doesn’t matter how big he is. The injury was a fluke thing.
145 to 170 he’s going to end up like Sam Gagner when he tried to bulk up instead of letting time take its natural course weight wise. Or Luke Schenn, who went from fantastic early career defenceman to plug after turning up like a weight lifter for training camp.
Yamamoto’s already doing fine. He’s scoring in the NHL which validates him completely. 4-5 pounds weight gain per year is normal, not freaking 25 pounds. Then again a lot of people including hockey players are stupid. Anything is possible.
Ennis already had a condo in Edmonton
Pennis already had a condom in Edmonton?
Should’ve guessed.
HH you may want to have a seat before reading this….
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23913544/the-body-issue-getting-athlete-real-measurements-rarely-easy
It’s okay to feel betrayed and fooled.
Marchand seems like the kind of guy who probably ate a full meal and drank a couple of gallons of water before stepping on the scale. Probably stood on his tippy toes getting his height taken as well.
Yes we will,
From Detroit, they have an extra 2nd in this years draft
Inaccurate heights and weights listed for profeasional athletes is incredibly common and they are often exaggerated. I witnessed this as well when I saw Eberle and Hall in street clothes. But Zack Stortini I felt was smaller than his given height and weight indicated. The guy seemed much bigger in person.
22 years old in my girlfriend’s bedroom, on a Sunday night.
Broadcast was on CTV, channel 2 in my town.
I could not get over the fact that epic show with all its glorious profanity, nudity & violence was being aired on network television.
Needless to say, I was in heaven
Nicely done!
Right? You couldn’t not watch that show, it was crazy.
It’s always amusing to me when someone uses the height and weight of an athlete they find on google to make an argument. Considering that those numbers are often inaccurate.
Especially when that argument is over 1 WHOLE inch and 25 WHOLE pounds!
I remember the big bird was used in front as well.
I sense a picture of Martin St. Louis’ quads is going to be posted soon.
I betcha Yamo will be close to 170 next season. I wonder how much Marchand weighed coming out of junior.
25 WHOLE pounds of MAYBE ALL muscle?
Well, I guess that settles that.
Woodguy v2.0,
I remember you and I have a discussion here about something or other cough… Aberg. Not important.
You accused me of “results based thinking.”
For dmen, the “ Relative Team Mate metrics (total weighted WOWY)” metric imputes the epitome of that.
Any stat that ranks the Oilers best defenseman as their second worst and vice versa… is unadulterated manure.
For forwards, it seems to do a decent result of sifting out the bottom of the roster, but not much more.
Clever people, no matter how smart, are still only able to calculate the transactions that occur on the ice independent from the forces that actually cause them to occur…
A rising tide floats all boats…
25 whole pounds is significant especially if its muscle.
I actually met Marchant in the early 2000’s during his playing days.
Context. I’m about 6’1” if we’re being 1/4 inch generous.
Back then, I weighed a lean/muscular 185.
There’s not a snowballs chance in hell he’s 5’10”.
I literally towered over him. There’s also no chance he weighed 10lbs less than me either.
Zero.
I was at least 5-6 inches taller and 25 lbs heavier, if not more.
He works out at a gym here in halifax in the summer and he is one very solid dude…
The Montreal Canadiens under Scotty Bowman used to put big Serge Savard AND Guy Lapointe in front of the net on the PP once in a while and have Larry Robinson hammer it from the point.
One WHOLE inch?!
Golly gee, Marchand is a giant in comparison!
I see you explain this on the daily.
Where the heck was everyone here when the Sopranos came out?
Marchand is an inch taller and 25 pounds heavier..
I can’t believe that pun lasted all day and night without being applied to you, lol. Thought it was an apropos way of ending the thread at any rate.
Of course, being an N64, you’re a significant improvement over Super Nintendo (Chalmers).
Saw it this morning and sprayed coffee.
Some year I’ll move on from the Yak handles:
НИНТЕНДО 64 / МАГИЯ 10 / NIT64 / N64
That would be too bad because seeing your posts always reminds me of him.
Same with LMHF. I always think of Hemsky when I see a post from (formerly Loud Mouth Hemsky Fan, a long time ago)
Ladieslovesmid, same.
With the Refs slowly putting away the whistles as the season winds down and the injury to Markstrom I see the butter soft Canucks going in a tailspin and only Vegas, Edmonton and Calgary advancing from the Pacific
MIN up by a couple early on the Jackets.
If MIN wins they will be 3 behind the Oil with even games.
The hope is not to be in a wild card position, but keep a division playoff spot, however, who knows how the Pacific Canadian teams will end up……
I am trying to understand what exactly these numbers mean. To what degree are these numbers a reflection of coaching? Does the WOWY component account for the impact of the quality of competition impacting these numbers? For example, Drai does not show particularly well using this metric, how much of this is the result of his skill or how much is the result of him constantly getting fed tough assignments?
That’s a Bendelsonesque level pun, Munchie.
Yeah, Kassian adds more “you’ll pay to make that play” to that line and that’s good.
Future Wood, to you.
(pun intended)
Thanks for that.
Early days but a good start
It’s a quick adjustment if things aren’t working out and I do agree the coach need three lines that work. That third line with Kassian will be a rugged trio, Archibald hits hard and Sheahan is a determined player
Woodguy v2.0,
Archie, Sheahan and Kass had a short stint together just before the suspension and they looked very effective. This is exactly the line I wanted to see again—to see if they can sustain their earlier success.
That said I worry about zone presence and cycling without Kass on L1… maybe Ennis is a placeholder there for Neal, dunno….
In 23 minutes together, Archie/Sheahan/Kass are about 50% posession and 1-0 in goals…. for what its worth, if anything