Mikko Koskinen delivered one of those crazy, crazy nights on Saturday. He stopped 46 of 47 (16 of 17 high danger scoring chances) and should have had a shutout (his mates were in search of more goals). Dave Tippett: “The goaltender was unbelievable. The rest of the group wasn’t so unbelievable.” Amen.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Oscar Klefbom’s return and usage a key element for Oilers stretch run
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How ‘little firecracker’ Josh Archibald went from unknown to vital with Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
- Lowetide: Reasonable expectations for Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Ennis over the next 15 games.
- Jonathan Willis: Ryan McLeod offers the Oilers size and speed. But will he score in the NHL?
- Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
- Lowetide: How the Oilers deadline deals might alter summer plans
- Jonathan Willis: Splitting Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl saved the Oilers’ season
- Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2017 draft and the value of waiting five years
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ AHL factory has produced three NHL defencemen, with more on the way
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Are Oilers poised for a long playoff run after Ken Holland’s deadline moves?
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
OILERS AFTER 69 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 26-36-7, 59 points; goal differential -33
- Oilers in 2016: 36-24-9, 81 points; goal differential +16
- Oilers in 2017: 30-35-4, 64 points; goal differential -36
- Oilers in 2018: 31-31-7, 69 points; goal differential -20
- Oilers in 2019-20: 37-24-8, 82 points; goal differential +8
The Oilers won ugly last night but the won-loss record shines like a diamond. The increased depth since training camp (Bear, Yamamoto, penalty killing) was on display and Koskinen’s being fresh this late in the year was also a factor.
ON THE TENS
- First 10 games: 7-2-1
- Second 10 games: 5-4-1
- Third 10 games: 5-4-1
- Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
- Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
- Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
- Current 10 games: 5-3-1
Since that 3-6-1 swoon (from around December 10 to the end of the month) is a distant bell. Since January 1, Edmonton is 16-7-4. Music!
OILERS IN MARCH
- Oilers in March 2016: 3-1-0, six points; goal differential +3
- Oilers in March 2017: 1-2-1, three points; goal differential -2
- Oilers in March 2018: 2-2-0, four points; goal differential -2
- Oilers in March 2019: 3-1-0, six points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in March 2020: 3-1-0, six points; goal differential +7
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: NAS, DAL, CHI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: CBJ, VEG, WPG, NYI (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, OTT (Expected 1-1-1)
- At home to: TBY, ANA, COL, SJS, ANA, VEG (Expected: 3-2-1)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-3, 17 points in 16 games
- Current results: 3-1-0, 6 points in 4 games
This month is insane and grabbing points in the first 15 days will be important. If the Oilers have secured a playoff spot before the Tampa Bay game then the tension of the schedule is washed away. I bet both Vegas games will matter.
OILERS 2019-20
It was a difficult game to watch, let alone focus on. Koskinen was brilliant, I thought Chiasson had one of his best games and Nurse made some nice defensive moves. It wasn’t a Picasso (well maybe it LOOKED like a Picasso), but it’s two points. All numbers five on five unless noted and all via NST.
LINE 1 Tyler Ennis-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 16:27, going 16-14 Corsi, 10-8 shots, no goals and 4-5 HDSC.
Tyler Ennis had three shots, two HDSC, two takeaways and a giveaway. He was in the play a lot, disappointing he didn’t cash. Leon Draisaitl had one shot, two giveaways and won 12 of 21 in the faceoff circle. He had a poor shift on the goal against, suspect he wants that 10 seconds back. Kailer Yamamoto had a shot, HDSC and a giveaway, I thought he was aggressive and turning pucks over. I wonder if he missed Nuge more than one might suspect. Took an elbow to the nose/under the right eye, but came back to play. Something to monitor for Monday.
LINE 2 Nuge-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 12:18, going 7-14 Corsi, 5-9 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-6 HDSC.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had an assist, a shot, a HDSC and a takeaway. He seemed a hair off on passes with his new linemates. Connor McDavid scored, had three shots, two HDSC, a giveaway and a takeaway, winning seven of 13 faceoffs. He is under the weather based on reports, still a ridiculous talent. Zack Kassian’s assist was lovely, great hands on the big man. He also had a shot on goal and played a physical game.
LINE 3 James Neal-Jujhar Khaira-Alex Chiasson played 9:01, going 7-7 Corsi, 4-3 shots, 2-0 goals and no HDSC.
James Neal had an assist, a shot on goal, a penalty and a giveaway. He played well, big body who can punish an opponent. Jujhar Khaira had an assist, took a penalty and had three giveaways. He might have found a home in the middle, meaning Dave Tippett unlocked every player he inherited. Are you listening, Jesse Puljujarvi? Alex Chiasson scored the first goal of the game and had an assist, two shots and a giveaway. One of his best games of the season.
LINE 4 Andreas Athanasiou-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 8:26, going 3-14 Corsi, 2-9 shots, no goals and 1-2 HDSC.
Andreas Athanasiou had one shot on goal and didn’t take any penalties. Riley Sheahan had one HDSC and won nine of 12 in the faceoff circle. Scored the empty netter. Josh Archibald got hit in a tender area but also got an assist seconds later. Quiet night otherwise. He’s one of the depth players who you would like to have the puck on his stick, didn’t happen much.
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 18:36, going 16-20 Corsi, 9-11 shots, no goals and 3-4 HDSC. Spent most of the evening with skill, eight minutes with the Leon trio and seven minutes with McDavid’s line.
Darnell Nurse had a high event game, stopping several sorties with astute defensive plays. He had two shots, one HDSC, took a penalty (it could have been ignored, but he applied force to the head) and had a giveaway. Ethan Bear had one shot and a giveaway, his passing wasn’t as much on display as usual but the whole team was dull in this area.
PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson played 15:22, going 10-15 Corsi, 8-11 shots, no goals and 3-5 HDSC. Spent seven minutes with Draisaitl and six minutes with McDavid.
Oscar Klefbom had one shot, a takeaway, blocked two shots and played a physical game. Adam Larsson had one shot and a giveaway. He also had an interesting chance at the net but couldn’t reach Leon’s pass. Stretched defensively, he bent but did not break. I’m a fan of Larsson. The pairing was effective overall, CBJ has some slipper characters among its forwards.
PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Caleb Jones played 12:22, going 6-11 Corsi, 4-7 shots, 1-0 goals and 1-1 HDSC. This was the only pairing with more defensive (7) than offensive (4) zone starts. Played five minutes with the Sheahan line and four minutes with the Khaira line.
Kris Russell had an assist and generally played well alongside his rookie partner. Caleb Jones stood out to me as having his legs (others seems to be skating in slush) and did make some fine passes. He scored the winning goal, had two shots, drew a penalty and played an edgy game. He’s a fine young NHL player. Full stop.
GOALIE Mikko Koskinen was brilliant from the opening whistle to the end of the game. Fantastic goaltending. I would give him the Vegas start. Stopped 45 of 46 shots, .978. His .917 save percentage ranks No. 12 among goalies who have played in 30 or more games this season. His .920 even strength save percentage ranks him No. 19 in that category. I believe he has earned the Vegas start.
BAKERSFIELD CONDORS 2019-20
The Condors trail division leading Tuscon Roadrunners by 23 points, and fifth place Ontario Reign by 14 points. It’s been over for weeks. I’ll write about it for The Athletic today. My thanks to Wilde for lines and pairings.
New for The Athletic: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
https://theathletic.com/1659888/2020/03/09/lowetide-caleb-jones-represents-oilers-template-for-development-success/
Not overly conerned about ARI or WIN but I’ll take an ARI win tonight I think even though they are a division team.
A regulation win tonight puts the Oilers back in first place – tied but with a game in hand and more regulation wins.
The Oilers currently have 6 points on the Canucks which is really 7 as the Oilers have 4 more regulation wins for the tiebreak – nucks have a game in hand but that is a big cushion with only 13/14 games left. No sure thing but a Pacific Division playoff spot is looking solid.
Gheez, those numbers almost make it look like Puljujarvi is the best player in that league. By a significant margin.
I’m encountering a data point that doesn’t jive with my impression of things going in, so now I’m going to jump between questioning the importance of the data /and/ the strength of the league even though if I didn’t think the league was any good then I don’t need to credit the data either way and if I don’t credit the data then the league is irrelevant
Lol. Enjoy.
Wilde,
What are your initial impressions of Kuffner? Strengths, weaknesses, potential?
Don’t have any, really. I’ve been monitoring him as part of a forechecking tandem with Gambardella, because if you can’t turn pucks over with that guy you can’t turn pucks over at all. Haven’t seen enough yet to go either way.
I’m expecting very little based on the CV.
Noted, and thanks.
Speaking of which, here’s the Finnish guy on Twitter’s latest Game Score dispatch:
(top 15 forwards, without squiggly lines and dots, disrespectfully; I only have the keyboard shortcut for the ä in Puljujärvi memorised)
Puljujärvi – 4.69 (?!)
Danforth – 3.87
Turunen – 3.58
Pyorala – 3.49
Lammaikko – 3.44
Leskinen – 3.40
Dyk – 3.07
Repo – 2.97
Minogoia – 2.89
DeSousa – 2.69
Junttila – 2.66
Imonen – 2.63
Nenonen – 2.54
Morley – 2.43
e: This is all-strengths by the way, my formula is 5-on-5, that’s why the numbers are so much smaller
Wilde,
Thanks for this, and noted on the game scores.
yw
I found L’Ultimo Pistolero to be sublime. Smile on my face the whole damn time.
My read is that Kulevich was never a worse player than Lowe as one’d be informed to believe based on their respective histories, looked at on a macro level
He was quite poor last year (7th of 7 among regular D along almost every metric) but he was always playing small minutes and Lowe was playing with Ethan Bear all the time.
The better parts of the Condors this year cleaved off by injury and promotions, and: Kulevich has a better season than veterans he started behind.
As an aside, you’ve brought this up because of the Game Scores, and I just want to stress to the crowd that my concurrence on the idea that Kulevich has raised his profile is based more on shot/goal impacts, zonal stuff and eye test. Want to stress that the Game Score numbers just give you an idea of what the game was like, as opposed to who converted their minutes into the most value in some kind of quasi-empirical way.
I actually think the Game Score stuff hasn’t been a bad indicator for forwards, though, it pretty well told the story that Yamamoto was like, literally twice as good as anyone else in the forward corps. Which appears to have been the case.
e: Whoops I forgot to add to my Game Score bit that Kulevich is probably going to show up more often in “Top D” parts of game summaries than equivalent players just because he plays his possessions pretty aggressively
Vancouver keeps losing.
Could be an advantage.
Oh yes, there will be blood.
The Dys in danger of falling out of the last wildcard spot. So sad.
Ugh oh, Peterson scores half way through the third and it’s a one goal game.
Munny,
Great Reviews. A Magnificent Seven it seems.
Wow, I didn’t think anyone would get that. Kurosawa is very near and dear to my heart. Thank you, kind sir.
Wild win in OT – oh well, still 5 back.
This isn’t directed at you specifically, the keep Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto sentiment has been strong. And I agree with it.
But I think part of what’s going on is that Tippett has new players that he has to find out about. Now is the time to try the various combination and to mix and match rather than in the first round.
Just like reuniting Drai-McDavid is always an option, the ability to go back to Nuge-Drai-Yamamoto is always there.
The Oilers are in a good spot to make the playoffs, use the last 15-20 games to learn all you can for when you get there. That’s at least part of what Tippett’s doing here IMO.
Jackets with a late goal in the 2nd to take a 2-0 lead to the third.
Wild took the lead on the Ducks but coughed it up late and are now in OT.
Jackets take a 1-0 lead on the canucks in the 2nd period.
Now 2-0 after two periods.
Been pretty quiet for the past 15 years then, lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enuOArEfqGo
I stumbled upon this a few weeks ago and thought I’d save it for an appropriate time, knowing full well the blog would eventually bring up the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
That was awesome.
I knew you’d like it
It’s the Danish National Symphony Orchestra performing the theme song to the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly if anyone is interested
Good heavens that was delicious. Grab some headphones and crank it up.
Lots of people are concerned about AA which is understandable.
I’m not sure we’ll ever see 30 goal seasons from him Again, , but I do think things will get better with time.
He has some warts in his game that need to be worked out. I also think his skating doesn’t look up to his usual standards. Injury?
Also a player who reportedly will take time to fit in the room…
Coleman kills penalties and is a different player, but the Bolts traded Nolan Foote and a first for him
Coleman has one assist in 8 games.
AA has a goal and assist in 7 games.
Someone intelligent should compile a list of every winger McDavid, Drai, or Nuge has had without chemistry.
I am in total agreement with you. I enjoy the silents of the the dead mile in Calgary during playoffs
All of a sudden, ANA has the lead on MIN, 3-2 with a couple left in the 2nd.
Of course, but, sigh, of course, you either miss the point or intentially make a strawman – tough to tell some times.
Yes, the Oilers have one road trip left where they need to take a long flight and back and have 5-6 nights where they are travelling and not going to bed after games but heading to airports and checking in to hotels in the middle of the night, etc. One trip, 3 games, 5 days.
The Knights have to do that for 10 more games.
I don’t really care how long the flights are – heading home after a game, getting to bed at a decent time, and heading to a solid team skate the next day (or maybe just meetings or even a day off) is MUCH different than even a 90 minute flight after the game – heading to the airport, checking in to hotels in the middle of the night, etc.
I would love to see both the nucks and flames out of the playoffs – After the Oiler making the playoffs (always primary) the my main hockey goal (not like I have control) are those two teams finishing one point out of the playoff, preferably after trading away their first rounder for a rental, each and every year.
Sure, if the flames HAVE to make it, I’ll take the BoA but I’d prefer them one point out.
With that said, I think ARI is done so, barring a heater by the Yotes combined with a pleasurable collapse by both the flames and nucks, at least one of them will be in. Here is hoping the Oilers hold their Pacific spot and the central takes both wild cards.
You know a flight from Vegas to Phoenix is a lot shorter than a flight from Edmonton to Philadelphia, right?
I’m not so sure Dube is why Lucic has come to life – I mean, Lucic has played with Dube pretty much all season long with little life – he’s only played 130 minutes away from him (and over 400 with).
This is the one. Walk the line between enough cover/depth but not so much that it’s impenetrable for Bouchard (and Lagesson).
Yes, the Oilers hit the road for a 5-day eastern road trip – the only 5 days they leave Alberta for the rest of the season.
The Knights play 9 more games on the road after tonight (I believe) – they will be heading to airports after games and getting to their destination in the middle of the night many more times that the Oilers.
The Oilers have a ton of games in March (as everyone does) but its very travel light from here on in and I think the travel is the most important factor in team fatigue.
Munny,
This is why I lurk. Nice read.
The NHL is really hoping the Wild make a splash. That’s a lot of hockey revenue in that market and since the north stars left the nhl has been the third biggest game in town after high school hockey and gophers. Now Gophers attendance has been dropping and NHL is trying to get those fans. They even gave them the winter classic next year. They looked dead until the flying Fialas came alive. Would be huge for hockey revenue for the Fialas to make the playoffs have Kaprizov come and play and have that market excited about hockey again
I don’t imagine CBJ will have the juice but, go Jackets – perhaps we can count on Demko being Demko!
I don’t think I agree that devoted fans of other organizations wouldn’t be talking about a player that put up just under a PPG as a 20 year old rookie in the AHL, in particular one that has exceptional pedigree (i.e. considered for exceptional status).
As far as was he “dominant” in the AHL – well, last year, during the 2nd half of the season, the Benson/Marody/Currie line was the epitome of dominant. I did watch alot of the Condors and they would spend 3/4 of their shifts in the offensive zone.
Was Benson himself dominant? Well, he was putting up a PPG including goals in that span but he wasn’t the primary driver of the line – that was Marody who was the puck transporter. Benson was a big part of the line’s success, being great on the cycle and having great vision distributing the puck, etc.
Yes, Yamamoto has looked better at the NHL level but, aside from one game this year, I don’t think he’s played an NHL game, in any of this three years, without McDavid, Drai or Nuge as his center.
He showed chemistry with the primary driver being a center, Marody, and, as some point, that type of dynamic should be tested at the NHL level.
There are various skilled prospects that produce at great rates in the NHL than the AHL – smart players that thrive playing with out skilled and smart players and better offensive structure and skill – shit, Kailer is one example. Benson is highly intelligent offensive player and skilled, he could very well be another.
We will find out in the next year or so.
Which of these is:
1) Fanye in his last year with EDM, playing top 4 comp on a team that finished 29th
2) Russell this year, playing 3rd pair on a top 10 regulation win team that will probably have home ice advantage in the first round
Options:
All results 5v5
Player A)
43.3% Shot Share (CF)
46.0% Expected Goal Share
47.5% Goal Share
1005 PDO
Player B)
49.3% Shot Share (CF)
47.2% Expected Goal Share
44.4% Goal Share
988 PDO
The process of acclimating to the NHL in the bottom 6, getting used to playing against NHL and playing at NHL speed , and learning not to be a defensive detriment to your line is “earning it”
Also,
Imagine Holland moves away from Neal and AA and hires/trades for an Actual NHL top 6 LW.
Tippett wants to keep RNH in the top 6 so Benson has RNH and the new hire ahead of him.
He comes to the NHL, adds value to his line and becomes an everyday player on the 3rd line.
That’s a good outcome, not a bad one.
Look at STL.
If they’re fully healthy Robert Thomas is playing the 3rd line and he’s top 6 on probably half the NHL teams.
Depth and quality depth is a good thing.
Having talent on the 3rd line so they win their minutes is a good thing.
If Benson is 3LW on EDM by merit, that’s a good thing too.
Honestly I want to see both Calgary and Vancouver make it. A series between the Oilers and either of those teams would be great.
Soft goal in Ridditch – bet Talbot gets another run of games here for the Flames.
I don’t mind seeing the Wild making it. Would like to see both Vancouver and the Flames fall out of the playoffs somehow.
Hopefully Canucks can find a way to lose tonight.
Yep.
Interesting to see how each performs in the playoffs.
Well, this Brier Final did not live up to its initial promise.
Wild are up 2-1 on ANA in the first.
Oilers are up by 7 points on Wild (this will be the Wild’s current game in hand) – not overly worried about the Wild catching them but would still like to see them come out on the short end.
It really can’t be said too often. The Flames suck. 😉
Lavoie with a goal and an assist and 5 shots in a 5-1 win.
Vegas finishes the flames off in regulation.
There was no ideal result in this game and I think this was the preferred result.
Separation between Edmonton and the flames by a gained game in hand for the Oilers. They fall out of first place but have it in their sole ability to take that back tomorrow night.
Looks like Cassie needs to give little Johnny a big hug.
Harpers Hair,
Seems to me a change of scenery worked out well for both Lucic and Neal as they have surpassed last years goal totals for either player.
It’s worth noting that the Flames suck.
And Vegas comes back to go 4-3 with a minute left.
Unbelievable how many goals the Flames score in the last 5 minutes of games this season to tie or win games.
It’s freaking voodoo black magic.
Don’t think a chicken would have done it. They must’ve sacrificed an elephant or two.
I will take his salary for $2000 Alex
Worth noting that Lucic has now scored more goals for the Flames than Neal scored for them last season.
Worth noting that Neal has scored more than 3x the goals for the
Oilers this season than Lucic scored for them last season.
and ????……..riveting analysis buddy
Here ya go:
https://torontowhiskysociety.ca
Thank you sir