Ken Holland occupied the Oilers general manager’s job in a season where the team enjoyed a fantastic turnaround. Edmonton’s 2019-20 season was on pace for 95-97 points, which would have represented a year over year increase 15-17 points. Holland made some good moves and the farm system blossomed in one impressive winter. Edmonton needs another graduating class just like it, this time flush with forwards.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Which Oilers veterans are in roster peril?
- New Jonathan Willis: How good is Anton Slepyshev and what will an NHL return mean for the Oilers?
- Jonathan Willis: Peter Chiarelli wants to be a GM again. Has he learned from his Oilers mistakes?
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ challenge could be finding relief with a low cap ceiling
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers prospects Raphael Lavoie and Kirill Maksimov
- Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
- Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
- Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
- Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
- Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
- Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?
CHIARELLI NEEDS, SUMMER 2015
Draft McDavid (check)
Find a quality goalie option (his answer was Cam Talbot)
Acquire a legit top pairing blue (Andrej Sekera)
Acquire a more offensive two-way F (Lauri Korpikoski)
Ignore MacT re: Marincin (dealt for No. 107 overall)
Chiarelli’s first summer saw him trade several picks, many of whom have reached the NHL now. Talbot and Sekera delivered in the short term but came at a dear price. Big draft summer (Connor McDavid, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and John Marino) despite trading picks.
CHIARELLI NEEDS, SUMMER 2016
Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom (his answer was Larsson)
Second-pairing RHD to partner with Sekera (Kris Russell)
Acquire RHC with some skill (Jesse Puljujarvi)
Backup goalie (Jonas Gustavsson)
Rob the Bruins of something (Matt Benning)
Traded Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson, signed Milan Lucic, Jonas Gustavsson, Mark Fraser, Kris Russell, Drake Caggiula and Matt Benning. Draft pick Jesse Puljujarvi brought the new hires summer 2016 to eight.
CHIARELLI NEEDS SUMMER 2017
Sign McDavid and Draisaitl. (Done)
Survive the expansion draft. (Reinhart was lost)
Make sure there’s enough cap room. (Eberle out, Strome in)
Find a second pairing D with two-way acumen (Kris Russell)
Find a forward who can help the offense. (No answer)
Offload Benoit Pouliot. (they bought him out)
Going long on McDavid and Draisaitl was the right play, trading out of Eberle to get more years of control (Strome) was an interesting bet. The juggling was in full force and the Russell contract meant money was too tight to mention.
CHIARELLI NEEDS SUMMER 2018
Veteran scoring right winger. Alex Chiasson.
Two-way left winger. Tobias Rieder.
Puck mover. Evan Bouchard was drafted, future move but didn’t help the present.
No. 7 defender. Kevin Gravel. He was solid
Backup goalie. Mikko Koskinen, another good signing.
By 2018 summer, Chiarelli had cap problems and had very little in tradeable assets. The Bouchard pick and elevation (and Todd McLellan not playing him) was an example of the disconnect and poor communication/procurement that culminated in two late December trades for fringe defensemen.
HOLLAND NEEDS SUMMER 2019
Two scoring wingers (James Neal, Alex Chiasson. Deadline Tyler Ennis, Andreas Athanasiou)
Cap room (bought out Andrej Sekera)
No. 3 RH center (Riley Sheahan and Gaetan Haas, neither man solved the issue)
Top 4 RHD who can move the puck (Ethan Bear, although that was not a Holland procurement piece. Mike Green late)
Backup goalie (Mike Smith)
Holland would get a passing grade for the Neal-Lucic trade alone, lest we forget the cap/expansion implications of the ML contract. I liked his aggressive work at the deadline, not sure how many problems he solved but at least Mike Smith’s asset cost didn’t resemble the Talbot trade.
HOLLAND NEEDS SUMMER 2020
Scoring winger (Andreas Athanasiou, Tyler Ennis, Taylor Hall, Mike Hoffman, Brett Connolly)
RH No. 3 center (Colin Blackwell. There isn’t much out there)
Offload a veteran blue (Kris Russell, Adam Larsson, Matt Benning)
Goaltender who can play half or more of the schedule (Alexander Georgiev, Linus Ullmark. Mike Smith remains the favourite)
OILERS 2020-21
Does Holland go high end on McDavid’s wingers, or does he address weakness up the middle and grab some centers and a strong goalie option? Not sure. This version of the team has some youth, I think they’ll continue to slow play unless injuries hit.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we hit the airwaves with strong guests and great conversation. Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports will chime in on Coronavirus and games from the past he’d like to see on television. Cameron DaSiliva from the Rams Wire will talk Todd Gurley and the Rams in free agency. Matthew Iwanyk from TSN1260 talks NFL free agency and when we can reasonably see pro sports return. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Yes, I agree with pretty much all of this.
A trade of Larsson isn’t off the table, of course not, in particular for a younger cost-controlled forward (with Larsson being one-year to UFA) but any such trade comes with depth risk to the right side depending on any ancillary moves.
For sure, we don’t know what the financial landscape of the NHL (or the world) will look like for the next while but, until there is more clarity or visibility in to that, I’m going to proceed on the assumption of salaries in the normal course of how things have been – that very well could significantly off in the coming years.
Just so long as none of the players are “challenged” by Holland.
Hear hear!
Yes, until his 36 year old body collapsed from the strain and now he’s on IR.
Moral: Don’t put all your eggs in a 36 year old defenceman you haven’t even had on the team before.
I eat more eggs for breakfast every morning than will be in the Green basket come contract talk.
It’s true he didn’t garner really any return at the TD, but wasn’t he expected to fetch a 3rd? Seemed like Dorion got caught playing the market and ended up having to settle for a paltry return.
2RD Petry was only worth a 3rd after all. We don’t know, but it seems likely a 5th doesn’t represent Ennis’s true value, if you know what I mean.
Fair enough.
If Larsson could bring back a guy like Kapanen I think I’d take that risk (particularly since Larsson only has 1 year left). But I also agree the risk is real.
If Larsson were moved:
Green – Definite injury risk. But likely has more left than his Motown numbers this year indicate. Agree this is not an ideal 2RD.
Benning – Pre-Tippett I was pushing pretty strongly that Benning’s numbers show a players who’s been very successful in 2RD minutes. Tippett further cutting his minutes rather than adding to them (even with the Larsson injury) has backed me off of Benning as a 2RD, but I still think he might be able to handle it. I will agree that’s very unlikely to happen under Tippett though.
Bouchard is pretty generally acknowledged to be ‘ready’ for the NHL, so he should work his way into the lineup in the coming year for sure. But yeah, expecting him to play 2RD effectively before the calendar flips to 2021 would be a big ask.
I suppose you can include the possibility Bear regressing off a spectacular rookie season as a risk too.
I would still move Larsson for the right return, but I suspect it’s most likely that Holland moves Russell and Benning but keeps Larsson.
Pretty much exactly how I see it.
With the way things have gone with the season ended I don’t think anybody knows how UFA salaries are going to go. When they announced that the cap would be 84.5 and up I did a spreadsheet for myself that made Green affordable up to 2.4 as the 6/7 guy while breaking in Bouchard. It left money for the 3 unknown spots and I was comfortable at that rate. Of course now everything has changed.
I agree. Too much hurry has a way of slowing a project down.
I know that at 84.5 I could justify paying Green 2.2 to 2.4 just because I like the idea of him as a mentor to Bear and Bouchard since the team doesn’t have a vet that played their kind of game. Now that everything has changed I have no idea how salaries for UFA’s are going to playout until we get some clarity from the league about what the intend to do. But, yeah, it could be a bad season to be without a contract.
Yeah, hopefully you can enjoy the diversions again before too long. And this blog is a great one in general.
No, I’m not anywhere near the world of finance, just remember you mentioning it.
I believe this has moved down to $1.13M now.
Good chance it goes lower from here.
That is my concern, going in to the season with Green as the pencilled in 2RD – I don’t think the cover is as great as you do. Actually that’s not quite true, I see big risk in that cover.
If Green isn’t able to handle 2RD (at 35 and never been a plus guy defensively) or gets hurt (as he often does):
– can Benning fill in – the coach hasn’t been willing to play him > 10 min per game in 2020
– can Bouchad fill in – that’s alot to ask from a developing rookie.
Also, if Rusty and Larsson both go, that’s quite the hit to the penalty kill.
I was fine with the acquisition of Green thinking he was acquired as veteran depth for the stretch run who may be the 6/7 and play 13-15 minutes but then, not only did he play right away, and on back to back nights, he played over 20 minutes his his second game.
I agree with you that I see Holland looking to re-sign him and with the intent for a larger role than I think he should be playing at this stage of his career.
if they are going to sign him for apx $2.5M, it not for the 6/7 13-15 min guy I don’t think.
One of the great things, for me, about this blog is that it gets so many different reactions. I’m pleased it had an impact and inspired you to write down your feelings. I don’t know much about what you do, but hope it all works out for you in the markets. I can’t imagine how difficult these days must be. All the best.
Markets are easy. As I learned at Goldman, never go short vol.
I would prefer to keep Larsson for next season. And an Oilers RD of Bear/Larsson/Green/Bouchard would be pretty much ideal IMO (I think this is what Holland would like to do if possible. It will be difficult).
I can also see the appeal of moving Larsson if he can return a top 6 winger or a plus 3C. So how would you feel about a Bear/Green/Benning/Bouchard RD for next season? Green would be the incumbent 2RD, but that’s some real solid cover for him. I’d be alright with that setup (if Green doesn’t cost too much/too long, and if Larsson brings a top 6/3C return). What do you think?
Seeing a McCurdy photo credit sure is nice. Always taking pictures of the stars that guy.
Nice to see Holland doesn’t have a gambler’s urge to cut bait on what both of us still rate as a top end prospect. If JP stays another season in Finland that might make him want to come over when he’s good and ready.
defmn,
I’m not sure he would cost the AAV that is being debated.
He’s the kind of player you don’t sign and won’t be signed on July 1 (or whatever date it will be this sunner0.
If he’s not getting bids elsewhere, his AAV could fall dramatically.
Thanks for the response. I tend to agree with this. I guess I just see Holland’s intention for him differently. I don’t think there is the slightest chance they trade Larsson this summer.
Outside of this blog I have seen no indication that it has even been thought of so for me Green is being considered as a 6/7 guy with Bouchard and his veteran presence on the bench and in the room while playing 40-50 games.
I guess I also kind of like the idea that while he may no longer be able to play at the level he once could I think his style of play has value for mentoring Bouchard and Bear.
Perhaps its too low but I’d be hesitant to commit term with that much AAV based on one bounce-back season after 4-5 middling offensive seasons and the player being on the wrong side of 30.
Lets not forget that even with the bounce-back season and a nominal cap hit, the Sens couldn’t get more than a 5th round pick for him – there is something there that GMs seem to not want to pay for.
Thank you for posting.
I admit that, nope, I didn’t see a ton of Detroit games this year and my opinion is based generally on my opinion of him over the years (as a massive PP guy, decent offensively at 5 on 5 and meh at best at evens) and the regression he’s shown in Detroit.
He has been on the decline for years now which makes sense now that he is in his 30s, however, the decline offensively was massive this year – 11 points I believe. At least over the last few years he was in the low 30s, followed by the high 20s last year and then 11 this year. Given his age, one could posit that drop off is not likely to recover.
Given the fact that he’s not a plus defender (to be nice), his 5 on 5 play is somewhat middling, he struggled on the PP this year and the Oilers have Klef and Bear with Bouchard coming, I don’t see where he fits other than a depth 3rd pairing guy.
I know Detroit sucks and that is a factor in his reduced production but his regression is year over year and material and, at his age, I don’t think there will be recovery – not as a 20-22 minute guy.
– Yes. Having seen some playbooks a few times over the years: this doenst have an easy out IMO
– I appreciate LT’s committement to the blog, as well as the posters who can use it as a diversion in this time. Its a good observation you made JP: its hard for me to look away, and this diversion has been a good outlet for me over the years. Are you in Finance?
– I look forward to being able to look away again and be back into the Oil thing.
Should we add links to social media with shirtless O. Pouzar travel picks – the internal rage it incites in some could re-engage another dimension of discourse.
If one of Benning or Larsson is gone, in addition to Rusty of course, then, absolutely a depth veteran right shot d-man needs to be added.
I have a feeling that management plans on bringing Green back and on the premise that he’s a legit 2nd pairing d-man that can play 20 minutes per night. He was used like that in his second Oiler game and he did play those minutes during the year as a Wing – of course, he struggled in those minute but that team……
I’m very hesitant to bring back Green on the premise that he can be a 2RD, however, absolutely if Larsson is disposed of, they need to acquire more than just a depth veteran 6/7 guy but someone more substantial – I believe Green would be the guy but I fear he’d be asked to do more than his abilities at 35 years old (and never a stalwart of defensive acumen to start with).
Puck moving is great but I believe the Green would be a fairly substantial step down to Larsson as 22 minutes per game – the Larsson we saw over the last few months which I believe represents the Larsson we’d see next year more than the guy we saw for the first few months – coming off a broken leg and 2 months behind the league.
You figure Ennis would re-sign for $1.2?
He’s from Edmonton, and hasn’t scored much in recent years before this one. But he scored over 0.5 PPG without high end line mates for most of the year.
I think he’d get substantially better offers than $1.2M. My guess is 2 x $1.5M is the low end of reasonable. I hope I’m wrong.
Harder for you to look away too since you’re in finance I imagine.
That looks good to me too, and is plausible.
Frank Seravalli on the Flames’ two D signings.
https://www.tsn.ca/calgary-flames-land-two-top-ncaa-free-agents-in-connor-mackey-colton-poolman-1.1459338
Depending on the plus, sure.
I like Benning more than most and, despite team control for Benning and Larsson being one year to UFA and $2M more expensive, Larsson has more value both to the Oilers on the ice and as an disposition piece.
In that scenario, yes, I’d feel more comfortable slotting the ride side as Bear, Larsson, Bouchard but I remain convinced if one of Benning or Larsson are disposed of (in addition to Rusty), its imperative to add a veteran depth right side D.
Now, if Benning is traded, as opposed to Larson, then we can spend less on that depth D guy as the premise would be 6/7 D as opposed to someone needed for the top 4. Green wouldn’t fit the bill in that case given he’d be ove $2M for sure.
His offensive numbers certainly spiked in the second half of the season – of course, he did get more ice time in general and definitely more PP time – especially when Jones wasn’t around and when Day was hurt.
He also earned those minutes and opportunities with significant overt development from what I saw.
His defensive positioning was significantly improved – Woody would call this “proximity to the check” but he defending much more aggressively and efficiently.
Woody, Howson and Holland all mentioned “junior habit” multiple times throughout the year – not just with Bouch but with guys like McLeod, Sammy and Maksi as well.
Bouch did show more urgency and intensity in puck retrieval and moving the puck.
Credit to Manson as well.
Holland discusses Puljujarvi.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/oilers-task-resolving-puljujarvi-dilemma-will-resume-hockey-returns/
Boiled-in-Oil,
Well done on all fronts.
Now more than 1000 cases in Canada including an outbreak at another senior’s care home in the Lower Mainland.
Just curious as you have said this a number of times now. Is your opinion on re-signing Green based on age, health and cost only or did you watch a lot of Detroit games this year?
I totally understand the opinion. I’m just wondering the basis for it. I didn’t see a lot of Detroit games this year so my opinion that I would be OK for around 2.2 – 2.4 is just based upon what I think the normal downward trajectory for a player of his age would be. Not a perfect solution by any means but kind of a ‘if they only count on him for 40-45 games’ he could be a good mentor for Bear and Bouchard’ kind of thought.
So happy to hear all is well..
You’re a class act.
All the best.
Thanks. You as well. Learning all the time. Might see you on the island some time. My kids are both on the island. My son is a Warrant at Comox. Just posted there. Daughter in Langford.
Cheers.
Anytime…we could share a wee dram of delicious Shelter Point whisky if I haven’t worked my was through the case by then.
I’d like that. Next time I’m heading to the island I will look you up. I’ll buy the steak.
Awesome…make sure you do.
I like the list and it generally equates with mine although I’m not sure I agree with the order (or disagree with it).
2 is a MUST and if 2 and 3 happen (i.e. Larsson goes in addition to Russell) then we need to add the signing/addition of a veteran depth RD – I think the org plans on Green and, if Larsson goes, then, yes, that may make sense – I have reservations about his ability to play 2RD game in and game out, but we would need some sort of cover there – we go in to camp assuming Evan Bouchard in that spot.
I think this downplays the intent of the Slepyshev signing, if it happens.
I believe the intent would include Slepy being an every day NHL player and potentially someone that could help in the top 6 (but would otherwise be a fixture in the bottom 6 if not middle 6).
He has size, skill, speed, a good shot – he showed some promise a few years ago and has since matured as a player, from accounts, and has produced well with a massive spike in the last half season.
No certainty that he’d be the player I suggest above but it would be a solid bet.
He won’t come cheap given how much he makes in the KHL (apx $1.3M USD).
+1
+3
Was thinking the same. At least Holland didn’t spend a ton.
AA isn’t a rental, Green and Ennis only cost a 4th and a 5th.
Just made my semi irregular donation to the lowetide blog. I figure it gives me the right to about two dozen posts. This one is for me to give a shout out to all who gave advice to me on how best to handle our return from Mexico. N64 and Harper Hair, thanks for the information. We slept in our car at the Duke point ferry terminal and made our way home using a purelled mastercard and tap and go. We have had food delivered to us by our friends and a local restaurant. People can be amazing in difficult times. We are on day three of 14 day quarantine.
I’ve been too busy to look at the blog since we left mexico. So I am not current with the chatter. I will undoubtedly catch up.
I’ve decided to heed the advice from Harpers Hair and pre spend at our local food establishments as well as making significant contributions to our local food banks. I consider it payback for the good fortune that has been thrown my way. Thank you Mister Mitchell for creating this cool family.
Carry on.
Lets say there are two compliance buyouts available (I don’t think that will happen but for the purpose of discussion).
Neal is a no-brainer, right?
Lets say they can trade Rusty with $1M retained, do they do that instead of a compliance buyout and use it on Chiasson?
Would Holland buy out Chiasson with (a) Chiasson being a Holland re-sign and/or (b) Neal already gone – Chiasson has all but no value with Neal but retains some value without Neal.
I don’t imagine he uses one on Mikko and starts with a blank page.
Imagine a Mikko buyout for free and then a signing of Lehner and a trade for DeSmith…..
The “pause” which will eventually lead to a cancellation (we are dependant on the US getting their shit under control for sports) “cost” the Oilers a 5th and 4th rounder for Ennis and Green barely playing but very well may have saved the 3rd rounder in the Neal/Lucic trade.
I’m still not positive that it will result in “condition didn’t vest” and we keep the 3rd but its definitely possible.
I would take a 3rd over a 4th and a 5th, right?
—————–
Of course, there is a solid chance that Holland will bring back either or both of Ennis and Green.
Ennis back for $1.2M or less would be fine.
A Green re-signing scares me and, at the end of the day, if we lose a 4th for two games of Green and a non-value contract in the $2.5M range for a regressing 35 year old that will be asked to play top 4 minutes – that will be a bad chain of events……..
– LT: good for keeping it OIL: no side bars/mention of Virus, it’s impact on society: just hockey
– It’s weird though: like some South American country club elites playing and discussing Polo, during a revolution, or the music and drinks flowing as the Titanic sinks.
– Don’t mean that in a disparging or critical way, it’s not a direct comparison at all or said in malice: having releases, diversions and an online forum for friends and foes alike to discourse in this environmenet is good and healthy.
– I’m impressed (and somewhat jealous) with those who are able to focus on the hockey thing now.
– Maybe I’m just bitter because I was going to win the Hunter Death March, as the team was trending towards my 101 point prediction…
– GOILERS!!!
Kinger – just to emphasize that I’m willing to discuss polo with you at any time, day or night. Have you seen our tournament up in Chitral / Gilgit?
The obvoius but aptly named: The China Syndrome
Chuck Norris runs every Chuck Norris joke past Stan Weir first to make sure it doesn’t make him look too tough.
I’ve heard Stan Weir doesn’t joke.
Team comes into this season with a shocking lack of depth and people want to trade key pieces like Larsson away to fill other holes. You keep him, and if you can come to a reasonable extension number (years/dollars) then you let him go UFA and essentially have an extra protected slot. Same with RNH.
Getting a compliance buyout (Neal) or two (Russell) would be huge. The you can continue to add guys like Slepy to bolster the depth. That was one guy who was insanely mis-handled by that clown TMac.
3C (Haula) and 2G (Georgiev) are the holes. That’s a pretty short shopping list. I could be convinced that JP for Georgiev is OK, and then Haula as UFA. Trade Benning and Chiasson for picks at the draft
RNH McDavid Kass
AA Drai Yamo
Ennis Haula Slepy
Nygard/Benson Sheahan/Khaira Archie
Klef Bear
Jones Lars
Nurse Bouch Green
Kos / Georgiev
I like that team and it’s not far away.
Speaking of music, had the chance to hear Pearl Jam’s new album Gigaton early.
It is their best in 20 years. Actually cannot believe they are putting out an album this good at this point in their careers.
There’s not much market for rock albums in the marketplace anymore; regardless, this is their strongest work since Binaural.
What a great place to hang out, Oilers, Canucks, music, whiskey, world news and COVID-19 all in one place. Thanks LT for providing this forum. Even astronomy from time to time if Bruce is up to. Lol.
You forgot, global macroeconomics.
cant ever get it all, what a diverse set of conversations. We are truly blessed to have this place and this group, even if there sometimes is conflict in the family.
The next Asian plague…giant hornets.
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/b-c-warns-of-likely-return-of-asian-giant-hornets-1.4861602
Those fuckers are serious bad news.
N. American honey bees haven’t developed the coping mechanisms that their Asian counterparts have.
Yep.
100 percent agreed.