Running Scared

During the “Coke Machine” era, the Oilers would routinely draft kids 40+ slots before one might have expected them to go. Geoff Paukovich was NA#80 (which would put him well into the 100s overall) in 2004 and they picked him 57th overall, dealing NHLer Jason Chimera for the right to do it. JF Jacques was ranked #88NA in 2003 and they picked him 68th overall.

The ultimate was Cameron Abney, chosen No. 82 in the 2009 draft without actually being listed among the 210 names on the NA list that year. Don’t get too angry, Troy Hesketh, chosen No. 71 same year, didn’t make the list either.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Top 20 prospect update: A lot of movement and some impressive graduations
  • Lowetide: Mavrik Bourque a quality option for the Oilers in the draft
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Inside the franchise-altering decision to pick Leon Draisaitl over Sam Bennett
  • Lowetide: Adam Larsson’s Oilers future uncertain as ‘sexy’ options emerge
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: One-on-one with Wayne Gretzky: On the time he visited Moscow during the Cold War
  • Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Discount forward options the Oilers could pursue in free agency
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Oh my God, Edmonton’s picking first’: An oral history of the 2015 NHL draft lottery
  • Lowetide: Comparison of Oilers, Flames drafts 2010-19 closer than it should be
  • Lowetide: The most potent lines in Oilers history
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: On the time Dave Semenko fought Muhammad Ali
  • Lowetide: Why Jan Mysak could be a value pick for the Oilers at the 2020 Draft
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers overcame malice in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver to join the NHL
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Remembering Jacques Plante’s brief tenure with the Oilers at age 45
  • Lowetide: Oilers need to find (or get) real value in William Lagesson
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
  • Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton

For those who don’t have a subscription, we’re offering a 90-day free trial. If you click on the story link that takes you to the free trial.

Condors signings in black caps. What does this organization need? Another NHL goalie, an offload of at least one NHL vet defenseman, help at center that may be Riley Sheahan and Gaetan Haas, signing the rfa’s. I think ‘scoring winger’ might be Athanasiou, maybe the Oilers will have enough room to add Tyler Ennis or similar.

His NHLE is 23.6, Joel Persson’s was 30.3. Swedish Poster commented in yesterday’s comments section:

“Lennström is very much a signing to solidify the AHL group Imo, took a big step in his development this season but I think the chance he moves the needle much in the NHL is slim. Probably a good top 4 AHL D though, Holland spoke a few weeks ago about how it’s difficult finding D, with how many AHL guys who have graduated or are about to they need some quality down in the A to make sure Samorukov isn’t thrown to the wolves. And it seems like every somewhat decent SHL D coming over is at least a good top 4 guy in the AHL of late so Lennström should do well enough down there.

He’s got some skill but nothing spectacular, good skater, took big steps defensively this year as he got stronger and more assertive, hard worker. The epitome of solid but unspectacular I’d say. So should be a good AHLer and is probably ok as someone you throw on your third pair for a few games in case the injuries pile up, unlikely to be more than that but here’s to hoping. His stand out skill is his skating I’d say and since that’s a premium in the NHL today there’s a small chance he surprises but I’m not holding my breath. Still a smart move from Holland securing what should be a good AHLer. If he lands him. The rumour a few weeks ago was that he was close to signing with Dallas.”

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67 Responses to "Running Scared"

  1. hunter1909 says:

    Nice to see Holland running a competent management organization.

    Me suspects many Lowetide readers expected a lottery team again, and therefore cannot yet understand the new era dawning.

  2. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:
    Nice to see Holland running a competent management organization.

    Me suspects many Lowetide readers expected a lottery team again, and therefore cannot yet understand the new era dawning.

    Really? I had them at 88 points, they are on track for 96. I don’t think many thought the Oilers would be a lottery team, iirc my number was conservative compared to most.

  3. jp says:

    I don’t feel any list of Oiler Coke Machines can be complete without including Mitch Moroz. Though I suppose yours was very far from a complete list..

  4. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    hunter1909:
    Nice to see Holland running a competent management organization.

    Me suspects many Lowetide readers expected a lottery team again, and therefore cannot yet understand the new era dawning.

    I wasn’t really expecting a lottery team, but I get your meaning. LT even alludes to it in the article. After so many years of having guys who thought they were “the smartest man in the room” going against the grain to make deals, picks, hirings, etc that ended up stalling progress, it’s quite alien to Oilers fans to see management actually make moves that are measured and reasonable. Sadly, the perrenial contenders have been operating this way forever. Grooming prospects properly, organizational depth, competition for jobs: all things that have been nowhere to be seen in these parts basically since Sather really. Hopefully Holland can get the team to that level, and his early grades look really promising.

  5. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    What does this organization need? Another NHL goalie, an offload of at least one NHL vet defenseman, help at center that may be Riley Sheahan and Gaetan Haas, signing the rfa’s. I think ‘scoring winger’ might be Athanasiou, maybe the Oilers will have enough room to add Tyler Ennis or similar.

    This may not be a sexy summer but I don’t think there’s a word out of place here.

    I expect the big news/moves will be what direction Holland goes with the 2nd goalie, and whether he can find the money for a real upgrade at 3C (or a marginal one from the bargain bin). Regardless, this team looks like it should be decent/good at minimum.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Re Moroz. Red Line had him 102, Bob McKenzie had him 56. I think Red Line had it right. Here’s their scouting report:

    Redline Report: Big, edgy power forward plays an in-your-face style and looks to initiate hard contact all over the ice. A feared enforcer who picked up 20 fighting majors, yet skates and handles the puck well enough to take regular shifts. Coaches eventually rotated him into the top six to give scoring lines a boost – gives smaller, skilled linemates more room to work with his physicality. Has surprising offensive tools with a heavy snap shot. Puckhandling confidence is soaring and he’s willing to try things with the puck now he wouldn’t have dreamed of six months ago. Skating enables him to play in open ice and even has decent lateral agility. Spins off checks to find space and gets to open ice. Emerging force uses great size/strength to dominate below the circles and is impossible to move around crease. Development curve is heading straight up and has upside.

  7. Brantford Boy says:

    Ugh… this was a little bit of a depressing post today…

    I guess things could have been worse, had Chiarelli got to the podium and called out “Matt Damon” ala Team America World Police: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QApeYpw7KQQ

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Everyone should read LT’s piece from yesterday at The Athletic – there are a few things I disagree with but its a great write-up!

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    If Tyler Ennis will come in under the Archie contract, I think its a no-brain re-sign – can really play on all the lines – kind of the Gagner role without the ability to play center (although I’m not sure Gagner’s work last year really included the ability to play center).

    I don’t recall seeing it by eye but I’m really intrigued at the Nygard/McDavid numbers and hope to see it given a look – I think a “training camped AA” has the inside track on that left wing job.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Adding Lennstrom and Niemeläinen to the Condor’s D will make me feel quite a bit more comfortable with the group. I anticipate Bouchard will start the year in the Bake but won’t be there for long. Lagesson I think starts the year in Edmonton.

  11. defmn says:

    Kurt has a pretty good track record with his predictions.

    5. Here’s something to watch in the coming weeks: Expect the Edmonton Oilers to re-sign pending UFA Gaetan Haas.

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-real-role-that-the-edmonton-oilers-are-playing-in-the-possible-resumption-of-the-nhl-season/

  12. jp says:

    Lowetide: Re Moroz. Red Line had him 102, Bob McKenzie had him 56. I think Red Line had it right. Here’s their scouting report:

    There were definitely things to like about him (nearly all these guys really). And his ranking/stock was rising, but still a reach at 32. (FWIW, the most successful players of the next 10 picks were Phil Di Giuseppe and Pontus Aberg, they were the only 2 to play more than 5 NHL games).

  13. jp says:

    defmn:
    Kurt has a pretty good track record with his predictions.

    5. Here’s something to watch in the coming weeks: Expect the Edmonton Oilers to re-sign pending UFA Gaetan Haas.

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-real-role-that-the-edmonton-oilers-are-playing-in-the-possible-resumption-of-the-nhl-season/

    That is interesting. I’ve been expecting Haas as a likely man out but I’d have zero issue with him returning. There’s really zero cap risk in signing him anyway (to a similar deal).

  14. defmn says:

    jp: That is interesting. I’ve been expecting Haas as a likely man out but I’d have zero issue with him returning. There’s really zero cap risk in signing him anyway (to a similar deal).

    Yeah, I have no problem with Ken signing as many $1.1 mil contracts as he likes to create competition in TC. I don’t see those that don’t make it causing a problem in Bakersfield since the cupboard is pretty bare down there for the forward group. If Benson makes the team out of camp, great. If he doesn’t that’s a tell as well.

  15. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Adding Lennstrom and Niemeläinen to the Condor’s D will make me feel quite a bit more comfortable with the group.I anticipate Bouchard will start the year in the Bake but won’t be there for long. Lagesson I think starts the year in Edmonton.

    Competition for Samorukov to push through. What a concept, eh?

    I know we want the real prospects playing but even better is if they are playing at their appropriate level of competition because they earned it.

    On the back end the Condors will have Bouchard and Samorukov as legit prospect to start the season if Lagesson is with the big club as we both hope. And, of course, we both think Bouchard arrives before Christmas at the latest so it isn’t like there will be a battle for ice time between strong prospects. I am hoping to see Sammy nail down 20:00 minutes a game with some PK & PP time.

    Up front Benson is as close to prime as can reasonably be expected so he either arrives by Christmas or I think his chances are on a downward trajectory. That leaves McLeod in his second year as a pro so he is probably there the whole year barring some exceptional event and Lavoie as a rookie. Maksimov and Safin are guys to pull for but have always been long shots so they either earn that top six playing time or not.

    Rodgrigue probably starts in the ECHL.

    So there is lots of room to send down one way contracts at just under the limit for no cap hit and still have room for the kids who have a shot at the NHL to make their mark.

  16. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Really? I had them at 88 points, they are on track for 96. I don’t think many thought the Oilers would be a lottery team, iirc my number was conservative compared to most.

    1 – I wasn’t referring to you, but the general view of your ordinarily extraordinarily talented hockey minds who know who they are.

    Also this comment makes sense:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: After so many years of having guys who thought they were “the smartest man in the room” going against the grain to make deals, picks, hirings, etc that ended up stalling progress, it’s quite alien to Oilers fans to see management actually make moves that are measured and reasonable.

    It’s really no big deal, and I have been a perennial optimist which unfortunately has led me to depths of soul searching far beyond the scope of anything lol

  17. slopitch says:

    Woodguy put a decent chunk of money on the Oilers to finish over so Im not sure who you’re referring to. Either way, it doesnt matter much. I do wonder what the bookies will do with those bets. I made 7 bets, 4 of which were overs (including the Oilers). I’ll be down if they finish as is. Was tracking for 6/7 which would be too bad. The solution imo is refund all or prorate the bet.

  18. hunter1909 says:

    slopitch:
    Woodguy put a decent chunk of money on the Oilers to finish over so Im not sure who you’re referring to. Either way, it doesnt matter much. I do wonder what the bookies will do with those bets. I made 7 bets, 4 of which were overs (including the Oilers). I’ll be down if they finish as is. Was tracking for 6/7 which would be too bad. The solution imo is refund all or prorate the bet.

    So what you are saying is that you placed 7 bets based on various outcomes most which had the Oilers collecting more than a mythical number of points etc set by bookies? Fascinating.

    I can’t bet on sports. Drives me crazy and I usually lose. Bet a small fortune on a championship boxing match once and didn’t have a restful moment until the fight was over almost 24 hours later. Too stressful lol

  19. slopitch says:

    I dove into the Oilers 5v5 play quite a bit recently. My 2 conclusions were that they need 2 things 1) a f to help McDavid and 2) a 3C. McDavid doesnt really need help as hes so good but ideally he has another F to help him vs the elites. He spent too much time dragging around Neal for example – maybe do it anyways and bring up Benson. I know Sheahan helped the PK but he really hurt 5v5.

    Lets say they:
    Sign Halak (or comparable)
    Move AA, Russell for a 2021 2nd
    Trade 2021 1st for Daneault
    Sign Hall, buy out Neal if they need to make the money work
    Sign Gagner 1.1m
    Trade JP if he wont sign

    4-97-44
    93-29-56
    Nygard-Danealt-Archibald
    Benson-Haas-Chaisson
    Khaira-Gagner

    77-6
    25-74
    82 – Green/83
    Bouchard

    Koskinen
    Halak

    4 moves, 3 upgrades and that team IMO is a contender. The other option would be to just roll with AA and Sheahan and they get aggressive at the deadline. But man this team would improve at ton with McDavid back at 58 DFF% and improving on Sheahan. Either way, it’s time to get aggressive. IMO.

  20. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    slopitch,

    Gagner is half the player Ennis is, and half as fast.

    AA is a recent acquisition so there’s no way Holland moves him at a loss.

    There’s no money for Hall, and he wasn’t a fit with Connor anyways; they both want to carry the puck. Taylor is going to be less available to play on a game to game basis as he ages, and durability was never his strong suit.

    Daneault as 3C would be interesting. Don’t see MTL moving him though.

    Your lineup is definitely interesting, but I don’t see the dollars working out with a flat cap.

  21. Harpers Hair says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    slopitch,

    Gagner is half the player Ennis is, and half as fast.

    AA is a recent acquisition so there’s no way Holland moves him at a loss.

    There’s no money for Hall, and he wasn’t a fit with Connor anyways; they both want to carry the puck.Taylor is going to be less available to play on a game to game basis as he ages, and durability was never his strong suit.

    Daneault as 3C would be interesting.Don’t see MTL moving him though.

    Your lineup is definitely interesting, but I don’t see the dollars working out with a flat cap.

    Montreal has amassed 14 picks in the upcoming draft and obviously won’t want to keep them all.
    They also have a ton of cap space.

    A creative GM should be able to do with business with them by moving players from any area of excess.

  22. jp says:

    slopitch:

    Lets say they:
    Sign Halak (or comparable)
    Move AA, Russell for a 2021 2nd
    Trade 2021 1st for Daneault
    Sign Hall, buy out Neal if they need to make the money work
    Sign Gagner 1.1m
    Trade JP if he wont sign

    4-97-44
    93-29-56
    Nygard-Danealt-Archibald
    Benson-Haas-Chaisson
    Khaira-Gagner

    77-6
    25-74
    82 – Green/83
    Bouchard

    Koskinen
    Halak

    That’s a great lineup, but I’ve got to agree with Gretzkyjersey it’ll almost certainly be too expensive cap-wise.

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    slopitch,

    There’s no money for Hall, and he wasn’t a fit with Connor anyways; they both want to carry the puck. interesting.

    I will disagree with this part. Hall-McDavid not being good together is a myth. They didn’t get much time together but results were good in those minutes.

  23. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    jp:
    I don’t feel any list of Oiler Coke Machines can be complete without including Mitch Moroz. Though I suppose yours was very far from a complete list..

    And who can forget Kyle Bigos? A Coke machine’s
    Coke machine. Boy, those were the days.

  24. slopitch says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    slopitch,

    Gagner is half the player Ennis is, and half as fast.

    AA is a recent acquisition so there’s no way Holland moves him at a loss.

    There’s no money for Hall, and he wasn’t a fit with Connor anyways; they both want to carry the puck.Taylor is going to be less available to play on a game to game basis as he ages, and durability was never his strong suit.

    Daneault as 3C would be interesting.Don’t see MTL moving him though.

    Your lineup is definitely interesting, but I don’t see the dollars working out with a flat cap.

    You may be right about no money. I didnt do the cap math. But I thought Neal + Russell + AA + JP out with Hall + Daneault (his contract is a beaut) would fit. Halls cap it is the unknown. I dont believe Hall wouldnt work with 97. They were fine. My guess is they give AA the chance on 97s wing too. I didnt see a lot of hockey IQ on AA. But he probably deserves more than 9 games evaluation.

    Daneault might be aiming high on 3C. He’s legit. And yes Montreals offseason will be very interesting to follow.

    Fine with Ennis and Gagner tbh. Ganger can contribute in bottom 6 though and likes it here. Maybe move Chaisson and fit both?

    Honestly though – get 97 a good winger and a legit 3c and this team is ready to rip.

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: I wasn’t really expecting a lottery team, but I get your meaning.LT even alludes to it in the article.After so many years of having guys who thought they were “the smartest man in the room” going against the grain to make deals, picks, hirings, etc that ended up stalling progress, it’s quite alien to Oilers fans to see management actually make moves that are measured and reasonable.Sadly, the perrenial contenders have been operating this way forever.Grooming prospects properly, organizational depth, competition for jobs:all things that have been nowhere to be seen in these parts basically since Sather really.Hopefully Holland can get the team to that level, and his early grades look really promising.

    To be fair, some of the positive shifts did start to occur under the Chiarelli regime.

    Organizational depth, while still building at forward, is better than its been in a long time but much of that is due to the prior regime – better drafting in the non first round and letting those prospects develop in the proper leagues – Bear, Jones, Lagesson, Berglund come to mind on the back-end.

    Nurse was a top 10 pick, went back to junior and started in the AHL (called up quickly due to injury).

    Drai was kept around but ultimately sent back to junior prior to vesting a UFA year and then started the following year in the AHL (again short lived).

    ——–

    The big key for what Holland did this past off-season was acquired players to “block” the tweeners – ensure that the team didn’t go in to the season counting on players to have taken the next step – he didn’t count on Benson and Marody to be NHL players, he had cover for them and they were forced to win jobs – when they failed to do so, the cover proved invaluable.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: This may not be a sexy summer but I don’t think there’s a word out of place here.

    I expect the big news/moves will be what direction Holland goes with the 2nd goalie, and whether he can find the money for a real upgrade at 3C (or a marginal one from the bargain bin). Regardless, this team looks like it should be decent/good at minimum.

    Yup, 3C is the primary need – I was hopeful there would be cap space for a real acquisition but even with a clean Rusty disposition, I’m not sure there is.

    I am on board with trying to move Rusty to a team with an over-priced, but legit, 3C – as we’ve talked about, Sutter or Perrault make some sense. Bonino would be a dream – NSH has a solid top 4 but their 3rd pairing was old and, well, not good. They could use Rusty – what’s the plus the Oilers have to add?

    Here is hoping Nygard can be a more material LW this coming season allowing Khaira to be the full time 4C (give or take a Riley Sheahan).

    Nuge, Ennis, AA, Nygard on the left side isn’t’ terrible.

  27. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: he didn’t count on Benson and Marody to be NHL players, he had cover for them and they were forced to win jobs – when they failed to do so, the cover proved invaluable.

    Yes, particularly when compared to Lowe+MacT’s patented “let’s throw them to the wolves” approach.

  28. pts2pndr says:

    defmn: Competition for Samorukov to push through. What a concept, eh?

    I know we want the real prospects playing but even better is if they are playing at their appropriate level of competition because they earned it.

    On the back end the Condors will have Bouchard and Samorukov as legit prospect to start the season if Lagesson is with the big club as we both hope. And, of course, we both think Bouchard arrives before Christmas at the latest so it isn’t like there will be a battle for ice time between strong prospects. I am hoping to see Sammy nail down 20:00 minutes a game with some PK & PP time.

    Up front Benson is as close to prime as can reasonably be expected so he either arrives by Christmas or I think his chances are on a downward trajectory. That leaves McLeod in his second year as a pro so he is probably there the whole year barring some exceptional event and Lavoie as a rookie. Maksimov and Safin are guys to pull for but have always been long shots so they either earn that top six playing time or not.

    Rodgrigue probably starts in the ECHL.

    So there is lots of room to send down one way contracts at just under the limit for no cap hit and still have room for the kids who have a shot at the NHL to make their mark.

    Earned it is a very fine line. I believe in the current Condors coaching staff so your comment is valid. When winning trumped development this was not always the case as the older more experienced player always got the ice time.

  29. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, 3C is the primary need – I was hopeful there would be cap space for a real acquisition but even with a clean Rusty disposition, I’m not sure there is.

    I am on board with trying to move Rusty to a team with an over-priced, but legit, 3C – as we’ve talked about, Sutter or Perrault make some sense. Bonino would be a dream – NSH has a solid top 4 but their 3rd pairing was old and, well, not good. They could use Rusty – what’s the plus the Oilers have to add?

    Here is hoping Nygard can be a more material LW this coming season allowing Khaira to be the full time 4C (give or take a Riley Sheahan).

    Nuge, Ennis, AA, Nygard on the left side isn’t’ terrible.

    Nashville will easily be able fill out their bottom pair with glut of UFA D hitting the market.

  30. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I don’t think he was looking at blockers as much as professionals that could show the kids the dedication and perseverance it takes to make the NHL. I know it’s semantics but I believe Holland has a very good understanding of the fact it takes a village. Make sure you have quality people for mentorship!

  31. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Nashville will easily be able fill out their bottom pair with glut of UFA D hitting the market.

    That’s likely. But if so there should also be a glut of cheap improvements on Sheahan out there.

  32. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Harpers Hair,

    I’m a big fan of AGM’s idea to trade Chiasson there for their 2020 WSH 3rd.

    Not that I dislike the player or contract (though it could have been cheaper by a half million, give or take). But he’s duplicated by Neal who is going to be an order of magnitude more difficult to trade.

  33. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    I don’t recall the metrics, they weren’t terrible together but Leon and Hall worked better together by memory. I seen ’em good, I reckon.

  34. pts2pndr says:

    slopitch:
    I dove into the Oilers 5v5 play quite a bit recently. My 2 conclusions were that they need 2 things 1) a f to help McDavid and 2) a 3C. McDavid doesnt really need help as hes so good but ideally he has another F to help him vs the elites. He spent too much time dragging around Neal for example – maybe do it anyways and bring up Benson. I know Sheahan helped the PK but he really hurt 5v5.

    Lets say they:
    Sign Halak (or comparable)
    Move AA, Russell for a 2021 2nd
    Trade 2021 1st for Daneault
    Sign Hall, buy out Neal if they need to make the money work
    Sign Gagner 1.1m
    Trade JP if he wont sign

    4-97-44
    93-29-56
    Nygard-Danealt-Archibald
    Benson-Haas-Chaisson
    Khaira-Gagner

    77-6
    25-74
    82 – Green/83
    Bouchard

    Koskinen
    Halak

    4 moves, 3 upgrades and that team IMO is a contender. The other option would be to just roll with AA and Sheahan and they get aggressive at the deadline. But man this team would improve at ton with McDavid back at 58 DFF% and improving on Sheahan. Either way, it’s time to get aggressive. IMO.

    There is being aggressive and then there is being foolish. Moving AA before you give him a full training camp when healthy is in my opinion foolish. The team simply can not afford Hall without sacrificing the future and short changing the present.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Nashville will easily be able fill out their bottom pair with glut of UFA D hitting the market.

    They may very well be interested in adding a legit 3LD a PK guy plus adding another solid asset as the trade would be Rusty plus. Don’t forget the plus. Teams like pluses.

  36. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair,

    I would think Domi would be of interest for the Oilers but what would Montreal want in return? There are deals out there wether it be for players or draft picks. The key is to assure you get value in for value out. I believe this is far more difficult than fans such as us believe.

  37. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, 3C is the primary need – I was hopeful there would be cap space for a real acquisition but even with a clean Rusty disposition, I’m not sure there is.

    I am on board with trying to move Rusty to a team with an over-priced, but legit, 3C – as we’ve talked about, Sutter or Perrault make some sense. Bonino would be a dream – NSH has a solid top 4 but their 3rd pairing was old and, well, not good. They could use Rusty – what’s the plus the Oilers have to add?

    Here is hoping Nygard can be a more material LW this coming season allowing Khaira to be the full time 4C (give or take a Riley Sheahan).

    Nuge, Ennis, AA, Nygard on the left side isn’t’ terrible.

    I think it depends on how close Holland thinks the team is to contending but we may well see the 6 year payment plan to buyout Neal this off season – when we finally get to an off season.

    I know there are good, solid arguments against doing so but the math goes like this.

    1st the ‘will Katz spend the money’ argument.

    Right now our owner is on the hook for $5.75 x 3 or $17.25 in order to ride out the contract. If the buyout happens this summer it will cost (barring a compliance get out of jail free card) $11.5 for a difference of $5.75 mil to pay for a replacement player. That is essentially an ELC contract or $925,000 for those six years.

    Can Holland promise that? Can Katz live with that? Can a number in between work for both of them? If Neal is going to be on the 4th line in Tippett’s world for the next 3 years – as many proposed lineups here seem to think – then it is a bit of a wash. Neal does still produce on the PP while giving it all back at 5 x 5 from what I read here so a 4th line guy who scores 8-10 goals and is a plus player is an upgrade.

    The 2nd argument against a buyout is the one I struggled with the most because, well, frankly I don’t care about Darryl’s spare change problem, is the 6 year window. Added on to Sekera’s remaining 3 years and Pouliot’s final year it is an incredible indictment of the previous management team. This year it would add up to a $6.5 mil including Lucic’s retained salary before dropping to about $5.2 for two more years and then settling in at $1.9 in round numbers. It doesn’t leave much room for Holland to strike out going forward.

    The positives, however, are strong if Holland can find somebody to take KRussell for nothing this summer. If he can’t get that done there isn’t enough money for a proper upgrade to the 3C position to make it worthwhile buying Neal out until next year imo.

    If he can move KRussell, though, all of a sudden there is a very nice chunk of cash sitting there waiting to fill that glaring hole on the 3rd line and at that point I think we are looking at a team that can be ranked with other contenders.

  38. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    slopitch,

    From what I recall of Daneault is that he’s their tough minutes centre they’re relying on while they break in their younger C’s of the future, like Suzuki, Domi and Kotkaniemi. I wonder if Kotkaniemi or Domi are somehow available…

    I’ve worked the math quite a bit on CapFriendly and there’s really only about $3.5M to work with assuming flat cap and Kenny doesn’t hand out any big deals/extensions. Basically everyone comes back at about what they’re making now and Bear gets bridged under $3M to make that work. Oh, and KRusty goes clean. So Hall is highly unlikely to be a fit salary wise. He HAS said he’s made his money and wants to sign with a contender when he hits UFA (on that Spittin’ Chicklets podcast a few years ago), but who knows what that really looks like. If he was willing to sign something like 5x$6M I’d make it happen but the chances are pretty slim.

    Regarding AA, well, I think OP has it covered in his daily bulletin. He’ll likely look better after training camp with the boys and staff, and we got him at a low point of his career with the smallest of sample sizes to judge his ability. Next year could be interesting. He has every chance of being a bargain at ~$3M. I’m going to defer to Old Dutch’s experience with the player on this one, his track record so far is pretty good.

  39. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Nashville will easily be able fill out their bottom pair with glut of UFA D hitting the market.

    Yes but for a stop gap gap experienced D Russel is good value depending on cap available. At his actual cost after July bonus he is value for money spent depending on cap room!

  40. geowal says:

    hunter1909:
    Nice to see Holland running a competent management organization.

    Me suspects many Lowetide readers expected a lottery team again, and therefore cannot yet understand the new era dawning.

    I’m surprised nobody, yourself included, references YOUR website in response to this, lol.

    If I look at it, 15 pessimists has them finishing 75 points or less, which is basically lottery territory, give or take a point, out of quite a long list of entries. So if 15 readers is “many” expecting a lottery to you, well ok. [I am assuming by lottery team you mean bottom 5 in the league].

    So I don’t think the readership is as pessimistic as you say. Jaded: yes, paranoid: yes,distrustful: yes, stay away from ledges after two losses or one fluke won: definitely. But I think overall this is a group of hopeless optimists, if anything, who hold on until there’s no chance left of a good outcome…then despair.

    Thanks for the dataset Hunter!

  41. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    defmn,

    All of this struck a chord of reason with me, except the bit about Sekera’s contract being an indictment of previous management. He was a good bet and had he not been (re)injured KRusty would likely have been the one bought out. Which is what I would have preferred at the time.

  42. geowal says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    defmn,

    All of this struck a chord of reason with me, except the bit about Sekera’s contract being an indictment of previous management.He was a good bet and had he not been (re)injured KRusty would likely have been the one bought out.Which is what I would have preferred at the time.

    Also, if we had expected this years level of play, would we still have sought buyout? Maybe. But this wouldn’t have seemed such a bad years of his contract.

  43. defmn says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    defmn,

    All of this struck a chord of reason with me, except the bit about Sekera’s contract being an indictment of previous management.He was a good bet and had he not been (re)injured KRusty would likely have been the one bought out.Which is what I would have preferred at the time.

    Yeah, I guess I worded that badly. What I was trying to say is that $6.5 mil in dead cap space to get out of contracts is a pretty heavy price to pay. You are correct that bad luck played a large role in Sekera’s buyout.

  44. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: They may very well be interested in adding a legit 3LD a PK guy plus adding another solid asset as the trade would be Rusty plus. Don’t forget the plus.Teams like pluses.

    Why take on a $4 million cap hit when you can get the same player for half that?

    Remember the cap is going to be flat.

  45. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    jp,

    I don’t recall the metrics, they weren’t terrible together but Leon and Hall worked better together by memory.I seen ’em good, I reckon.

    McDavid and Hall only played 76 minutes together so it’s tough to know how it would have gone. In those minutes though, they had 54% of the SF and 60% of the goals (3-2). McDavid without Hall had 53% SF and 50% of the goals.

    Hall played mostly with Draisaitl that season (890 minutes). They had 53% of the SF together and 52% of the goals (42-39).

    In their limited minutes they were successful together.

  46. Harpers Hair says:

    pts2pndr:
    Harpers Hair,

    I would think Domi would be of interest for the Oilers but what would Montreal want in return? There are deals out there wether it be for players or draft picks. The key is to assure you get value in for value out. I believe this is far more difficult than fans such as us believe.

    Domi and a second for Nurse makes sense.

    The Oilers either have D depth or they don’t.

    Time to find out.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    Harpers Hair,

    I would think Domi would be of interest for the Oilers but what would Montreal want in return? There are deals out there wether it be for players or draft picks. The key is to assure you get value in for value out. I believe this is far more difficult than fans such as us believe.

    Of course, value in and out is no longer just determined on a player’s ability and future ability but vis-a-vis contract. I have a feeling that Domi is going to be looking for a hefty contract (new NHL economics aside) and, to me, that is highly devaluing.

  48. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, value in and out is no longer just determined on a player’s ability and future ability but vis-a-vis contract. I have a feeling that Domi is going to be looking for a hefty contract (new NHL economics aside) and, to me, that is highly devaluing.

    So will Nurse.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    defmn,

    All of this struck a chord of reason with me, except the bit about Sekera’s contract being an indictment of previous management.He was a good bet and had he not been (re)injured KRusty would likely have been the one bought out.Which is what I would have preferred at the time.

    Yes, the Sekera contract was a solid signing at the time and he was full value full the contract until the moment Getzlaf did his thing. That turned the contract 180.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Why take on a $4 million cap hit when you can get the same player for half that?

    Remember the cap is going to be flat.

    Please feel free to re-read the post you are responding too which answers the question.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: So will Nurse.

    My comment had nothing to do with Nurse.

    Stop it.

  52. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, 3C is the primary need – I was hopeful there would be cap space for a real acquisition but even with a clean Rusty disposition, I’m not sure there is.

    I am on board with trying to move Rusty to a team with an over-priced, but legit, 3C – as we’ve talked about, Sutter or Perrault make some sense. Bonino would be a dream – NSH has a solid top 4 but their 3rd pairing was old and, well, not good. They could use Rusty – what’s the plus the Oilers have to add?

    Here is hoping Nygard can be a more material LW this coming season allowing Khaira to be the full time 4C (give or take a Riley Sheahan).

    Nuge, Ennis, AA, Nygard on the left side isn’t’ terrible.

    Yeah cash is going to be the issue.

    Sutter I think is plausible, Bonino I agree would cost well more than just a Russell exchange. Perreault doesn’t play C at all anymore (13th on the Jets in FO this year, 8th the 2 years prior to that).

    Nygard being able to play a bigger role would be great, I could see it happening too.

    And in terms of Nuge/Ennis/AA/Nygard as a LW group, I think we have unrealistic expectations. That could actually be a very strong group. Athanasiou is the wild card. The AVERAGE 2nd line forward scored 40 points last season (~140th among forwards in all situations scoring). Athanasiou could easily better that (he’s done it with much lesser centers than McDavid/Draisaitl already). And Ennis is a decent bet to score 40 in those minutes if Athanasiou falls flat (which is possible).

    A Hoffman or Hall to play with McDavid would be great, I just don’t think it’s actually necessary or realistic.

  53. DieHard says:

    Harpers Hair: Domi and a second for Nurse makes sense.

    The Oilers either have D depth or they don’t.

    Time to find out.

    I like that trade. One way or the other, we’ve got to do it. Nurse will price himself out. We will have better LHD down the road. At least I believe that.

  54. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: My comment had nothing to do with Nurse.

    Stop it.

    Mine does.

    You keep trying to pawn off a bad contract owned by a declining player and suggesting teams will jump all over it.

    They won’t.

    The flat cap means there will be precious little cap space and also means there will be many UFA D who won’t find a home unless they agree to work cheaply.

    I suggested a trade of Domi and a second round pick for Nurse but you are already denigrating Domi because he’ll be “asking for too much”.

    So will Nurse.

  55. Harpers Hair says:

    DieHard: I like that trade. One way or the other,we’ve got to do it. Nurse will price himself out. We will have better LHD down the road. At least I believe that.

    And bear in mind Domi scored 70 points in his last full season.

    Kid can play but Montreal now has Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Suzuki and Danault at centre and will likely draft another one soon.

  56. Harpers Hair says:

    Maskguy55
    @Woodguy55
    ·
    10m
    Mrs. Woodguy made a Chickpea, Spinach and Herb stew (I added a large dollop of Greek yogurt) from a
    @ClosetCooking
    recipe. So, so good. Light and “fresh” tasting yet very substantial.

    Woodguy has now been released from custody and is recovering at home.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Mine does.

    You keep trying to pawn off a bad contract owned by a declining player and suggesting teams will jump all over it.

    They won’t.

    The flat cap means there will be precious little cap space and also means there will be many UFA D who won’t find a home unless they agree to work cheaply.

    I suggested a trade of Domi and a second round pick for Nurse but you are already denigrating Domi because he’ll be “asking for too much”.

    So will Nurse.

    My goodness – stop making stuff up.

    Clearly you read all the posts and you know very well that I have the opinion that Rusty will be a hard contract to move. I’m sure you’ve read that from me two dozens times and I’m sure you’ve heard me retort to those that think he’ll be easy to move to cash poor teams a dozen times.

    I have indicated dozens and dozens of time that most teams are capped out and I don’t think Rusty can be moved straight out and why a trade for another poor contact like Sutter might be the way.

    I have been VERY clear that the Oilers would have to add a substantial piece to the Rusty/Bonino swap. The money works with those two pieces but the value doesn’t.

    So, again, stop it.

    Nurse wanting more money in 2 years from now has nothing to do with anything and nothing to do with my comment to another person about Domi. I did not respond to your Domi/Nurse post and haven’t corresponded with you at all about Domi.

  58. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: My goodness – stop making stuff up.

    Clearly you read all the posts and you know very well that I have the opinion that Rusty will be a hard contract to move. I’m sure you’ve read that from me two dozens times and I’m sure you’ve heard me retort to those that think he’ll be easy to move to cash poor teams a dozen times.

    I have indicated dozens and dozens of time that most teams are capped out and I don’t think Rusty can be moved straight out and why a trade for another poor contact like Sutter might be the way.

    I have been VERY clear that the Oilers would have to add a substantial piece to the Rusty/Bonino swap.The money works with those two pieces but the value doesn’t.

    So, again, stop it.

    Nurse wanting more money in 2 years from now has nothing to do with anything and nothing to do with my comment to another person about Domi.I did not respond to your Domi/Nurse post and haven’t corresponded with you at all about Domi.

    Stop trying to frame a narrative and reply in good faith.

    Problem solved.

  59. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Domi and a second for Nurse makes sense.

    The Oilers either have D depth or they don’t.

    Time to find out.

    Nurse for Domi is an over pay in my opinion. Too much risk. A top four D that can play top pairing for periods of time holds more value than a third line center for the Oilers.

  60. Harpers Hair says:

    pts2pndr: Nurse for Domi is an over pay in my opinion. Too much risk. A top four D that can play top pairingfor periods of time holds more value than a third line center for the Oilers.

    A centre that has scored 70 points in a season that also brings an edge to his game and can also play up the lineup has tremendous value.

    Remember the Leftorium.

  61. Lowetide says:

    Gents, maybe we could move on since the entire world knows no one is going to change their mind?

  62. Glovjuice says:

    OP and HH behaving like petulant teens again. Super.

    Anyways, my famous Southwest Dry Rub:

    2 teaspoons cumin
    1 teaspoon paprika
    1 teaspoon garlic powder
    1 teaspoon onion powder
    1 teaspoon coriander
    1 teaspoon dry cilantro flakes (for colour)
    1 teaspoon coarse salt
    0.5 teaspoon ancho chile powder
    0.5 teaspoon brown sugar
    0.25 teaspoon white pepper
    0.125 teaspoon salt free lemon/pepper seasoning

    All powder (not seeds)
    This is low sodium – could use 2 teaspoons coarse salt (even 3 if using for ribs on BBQ, as an example)
    Works best for pork.
    No heat at all of course. Can easily add cayenne.
    Use for dry rub on meat, in soups, stews, casseroles, does work well on beef for fajitas with a sour cream, corriander, orange juice and lime sauce drizzle. Also, works great on pork tenderloin medallions with a touch of smoke on their own (dry) or stirred with their post resting pan juices and a touch of sour cream mixed with a plain tomato, onion, Serrano, salt, and corriander salsa.

    0

  63. slopitch says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    slopitch,

    Regarding AA, well, I think OP has it covered in his daily bulletin.He’ll likely look better after training camp with the boys and staff, and we got him at a low point of his career with the smallest of sample sizes to judge his ability.Next year could be interesting.He has every chance of being a bargain at ~$3M.I’m going to defer to Old Dutch’s experience with the player on this one, his track record so far is pretty good.

    Holland had a great year. I can say that and still have the opinion AA was a poor acquisition. He’s been a drag 5v5 every year except 17-18. They didnt buy him on his low point. They bought him at his career norm. Oilers PP was lights out last year. Id trade AA for assets and use cap space on a winger that would help 97 vs the toughs. I like Hall – as others have pointed out he may be price prohibitive but I think its possible. Im an oilers fan happy to be wrong about AA.

  64. slopitch says:

    A 3C could impact the oilers as more than a winger. Daneault at would prob help the oilers as much as Hall and at 3.25m he’d definately provide more value. Alternatively if 97 gets back to his 16-17 levels of 5v5 dominance it might not matter with 93-29-56 playing as well as they did. But i think improving on Sheahan should be attempted. The point Im trying to make is that if the Oilers are 2 pices away from being in the mix. Not easy to do but when I throw out suggestions please consider them as ideas and conversations rather than hf boards trade proposals. Many solutions out there!

  65. jp says:

    slopitch: Holland had a great year. I can say that and still have the opinion AA was a poor acquisition. He’s been a drag 5v5 every year except 17-18.They didnt buy him on his low point. They bought him at his career norm. Oilers PP was lights out last year. Id trade AA for assets and use cap space on a winger that would help 97 vs the toughs. I like Hall – as others have pointed out he may be price prohibitive but I think its possible. Im an oilers fan happy to be wrong about AA.

    The jury is still very much out on Athanasiou. It’s not at all clear how this will go and I agree it could turn out being a poor acquisition.

    But you saying “They didnt buy him on his low point. They bought him at his career norm.” is simply not a true statement.

    This season was the lowest games played, goals, points and +/- of his career. Check out his 5 on 5 goal differential vs Detroit’s (not including his Edm games this season)

    15-16 DET -8 AA 0
    16-17 DET -18 AA 0
    17-18 DET -18 AA -8
    18-19 DET -30 AA -5
    19-20 DET -76 AA -31

    He was nothing special before this year but he wasn’t a drag relative to team (and this year everything went to shit in Detroit). Before that he was -13 for a team that was -74. This is by far the worst season of his career.

    And we know he can score. 30 goals and 54 points last season is pretty impressive (tied for 39th and 79th in the NHL, respectively).

    Just one year you say? Over the past 3 seasons Athanasiou has averaged 67-19-19-38. With injuries included he scored goals like a borderline #4/5 forward and points like a borderline #5/6 forward. He’s very clearly scored like a top 6 forward, including this worst season of his career.

    I dunno. Athanasiou’s career norm is a pretty valuable player. I think we should give him a chance.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Petulant, childish, sulky, ill-tempered – whatever word helps one feel superior – at least the posts are related to sports, hockey and the Oilers. Feel free to skip over them without comment, as many that come here for sports, hockey and the Oilers do with the food and recipe posts.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch:
    A 3C could impact the oilers as more than a winger. Daneault at would prob help the oilers as much as Hall and at 3.25m he’d definately provide more value. Alternatively if 97 gets back to his 16-17 levels of 5v5 dominance it might not matter with 93-29-56 playing as well as they did. But i think improving on Sheahan should be attempted. The point Im trying to make is that if the Oilers are 2 pices away from being in the mix. Not easy to do but when I throw out suggestions please consider them as ideas and conversations rather than hf boards trade proposals. Many solutions out there!

    Agree with this 100% – Denault would be a fantastic add to the team – one year until UFA status (and then requiring a decline years contact) is an issue though (if paying full value acquisition cost).

    I am 100% comfortable with Sheahan/Khaira as the 4C but that 3C is the glaring hole – Sheahan would likely be an even better asset if allowed to play the appropriate position.

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