Every year I rank the draft and in 2016 I had the early stages of the Oilers list surrounded. Jesse Puljujarvi went No. 4 (I had him No. 3), Tyler Benson went No. 32 (34 on my list). After that? Not so much.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Mavrik Bourque a quality option for the Oilers in the draft
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Inside the franchise-altering decision to pick Leon Draisaitl over Sam Bennett
- Lowetide: Adam Larsson’s Oilers future uncertain as ‘sexy’ options emerge
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: One-on-one with Wayne Gretzky: On the time he visited Moscow during the Cold War
- Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Discount forward options the Oilers could pursue in free agency
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Oh my God, Edmonton’s picking first’: An oral history of the 2015 NHL draft lottery
- Lowetide: Comparison of Oilers, Flames drafts 2010-19 closer than it should be
- Lowetide: The most potent lines in Oilers history
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: On the time Dave Semenko fought Muhammad Ali
- Lowetide: Why Jan Mysak could be a value pick for the Oilers at the 2020 Draft
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers overcame malice in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver to join the NHL
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Remembering Jacques Plante’s brief tenure with the Oilers at age 45
- Lowetide: Oilers need to find (or get) real value in William Lagesson
- Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
- Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton
OILERS 2016 DRAFT
Here’s what I said about the Oilers picks on draft weekend. Below is the spot where each player was chosen, my rank in brackets and my thumbnail sketch on each player at the time.
No. 4 (3) R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Sm-Liiga): Big, fast, rambunctious.
No. 32 (34) L Tyler Benson, Vancouver Giants (WHL). Physical two-way forward. Injured a lot.
No. 63 (108) LD Markus Niemelainen, Saginaw Spirit (OHL). Giant defender, mobile, some offense.
No. 84 (145) LD Matthew Cairns, Georgetown Raiders (OJHL). Smart defender with good size, mobility.
No. 91 (61) RD Filip Berglund, Skelleftea AIK (SEL). Intriguing offense, may take awhile.
No. 123 (NR) G Dylan Wells.
No. 149 (NR) LW Graham McPhee.
No. 153 (109) C Aapeli Rasanen, Tappara U20 (Jr. SML). A fine prospect, good size and skill.
No. 183 (NR) RD Vincent Desharnais.
Notice my ranking of the defensive defensemen? I learned over years of ranking that players who don’t deliver any (or very little) offense as especially prone to failure. For instance, I had David Musil No. 26 in 2011 (he went No. 31) but learned in the five years that followed.
Jim Matheson has more on Berglund and Niemelainen (and some other things) here. I was on The Jason Gregor Show yesterday discussing Berglund and Niemelainen with Gregor and Jason Strudwick.
One of them asked me if I thought either would make it to the NHL, my answer was that it’s probably less than 50 percent. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea to sign Berglund and Niemelainen. They could develop, or become solid AHL players who help develop others.
The signing of Berglund and Niemelainen will probably bring an end to the NHL contracts from the Oilers ’16 draft. Matthew Cairns remains a possibility but the current trajectory is not promising.
If none of JP, Benson, Niemelainen, Berglund or Wells emerges as a 500+ games regular or better, this will rank as the worst draft since 2012 (Nail Yakupov, Jujhar Khaira, Erik Gustafsson) or 2009 (Magnus Paajarvi and Anton Lander).
OILERS PRO DEPTH CHART (DEFENSE) 2020-21
If the Oilers do sign both Euro blue, it would set up the depth chart (Oilers and Condors) like this:
Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
Darnell Nurse—Ethan Bear
Caleb Jones—Evan Bouchard
Kris Russell—Matt Benning
William Lagesson—Logan Day
Dmitri Samorukov—Filip Berglund*
Markus Niemelainen
Work to be done, I don’t think the NHL blue will return as above (someone with money attached is heading out of town) and suspect Mike Green gets a deal as well. There are spots in Bakersfield for both Berglund and Niemelainen. *I understand Berglund plans to play in Sweden for another year, wonder if he comes over for camp.
Actually she said two things.
1. None of those big festivals at all this summer
2. Group size of 15 remains for now
Would not be surprised to see a wide range of rules re: events from 15 to 50 sometime in May including outdoor kids sports .
Just go after 6pm for the Victoria Costco, never an issue after 6, just go in and get out. Everybody goes during the daytime .
I really hope we get to see him in Edmonton at the World Juniors – I hope it can go as scheduled.
Thanks OP. nice to see OIler’s future this AM
Sole early morning Broberg:
https://twitter.com/skelleftea_aik/status/1254341743211921409?s=21
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2888705-report-some-nba-teams-can-allow-players-to-re-enter-practice-facilities-may-1?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral
Baby steps.
Here’s my prediction. If the NHL goes forward and they play, Alberta will give them an exemption and allow games in Edmonton in an empty building. They’ll make up some excuse, like public interest or some such thing.
Where were you when game 2 in 1987 was happening? The good times are going to return next year and if the resident troll is game for some bet, bet, bets this fall, I’ll start socking away a $1000 a month.
What I would give to visit a drive in movie theatre about now.
I’d expect golf course to open this summer across AB. Tourneys with crowds are another story.
The harder the exponential wall loomed the harder social/economic contraction. Excess contraction can be blamed on under and over responses by citizens and govt’s. But everywhere no matter how hard countries had to react people’s spending was changed by covid and not just for this year. This was never the trade off between economy and death that people wish it was. The most important thing isn’t the pre peak responses that were largely baked in when it hit, but what happens next. Especially maximizing economic and social benefits by reopening smartly.
How much to reduce social interaction before, during, and after the first wave. Lots of good ideas and views out there.
But it’s not like our seasonal flu at all. Three reasons in order of strength.
1. No country no matter their political systems or norms has been to deal with it the way they deal with a bad seasonal flu. Every country that tried to deal with it as just another flu changed course (quickly or otherwise) and switched to dealing with it as a hospital crusher. The difference from country to country is exaggerated. With and without gov’t recommendations social interaction and economic activity contracted dramatically whether led by consumer reactions, working from home gov’t recommendations, closure orders or stay at home orders. The closer countries were to the wall the the larger the social/economic contraction, but all dealt with this unlike any seasonal flu.
2. The cases that show up in the hospital don’t look like seasonal flu in term of under 65 death rates and ICU time. So many stats to wade through, but still likely Infection Fatality Rate converges around 1/2 % vs 1/20 % for seasonal flu. But as Homer said: “”you can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forty percent of all people know that”
3. It’s kind of inescapable when you have to deal with it. POTUS: “A lot of people have said, a lot of people have thought about it, ‘Ride it out, don’t do anything, just ride it out, and think of it as the flu.’ But it’s not the flu. It’s vicious.”
I agree, nice pieces. Not quite where they all need to be but the core is young and should improve and the holes are getting down to a focused few.
One major contract to get rid of past next season but there are rumours of a get out of jail card coming that would allow the Oilers to move on from Neal. I see more reason for optimism than in a long time.
I’m pretty comfortable with Holland and Tippett at this point.
You know the old joke, I am sure.
Q. Why did they build the airport so far from the city?
A. The Decores didn’t own property any closer. 😉
Harpers Hair,
Some people eat food …others eat…..
A long time reader would also know we don’t all agree on what the context is or how to interpret it.
Thanks so much.
I figure it’s also a great way to to break the tedium of isolation by trying new recipes and tastes.
Your discerning culinary tastes are commendable in my opinion. Experiencing new foods with friends from different cultures is one of many mind opening and wonderful experiences.
For no particular reason, how have all current Oilers scored over their past 82 games?
McDavid 82-42-84-126
Draisaitl 82-51-74-125
Nuge 82-30-44-74
Athanasiou 82-24-22-46
Kassian 82-22-22-44
Neal 82-23-20-43
Ennis 82-19-22-41
Chiasson 82-15-18-33
Yamamoto 53-12-19-31
Archibald 82-15-12-27
Sheahan 82-9-10-19
Khaira 82-8-7-15
Granlund 82-10-5-15
Haas 58-5-5-10
Nygard 33-3-6-9
Russell 45-0-5-5
Klefbom 82-6-38-44
Nurse 82-7-32-39
Green 82-7-21-28
Bear 82-6-17-23
Benning 82-5-13-18
Russell 82-1-15-16
Jones 60-5-10-15
Larsson 82-3-10-13
That looks half decent.
defmn,
“The virus has died by the time you drive into Edmonton from the airport out by Leduc. ?”
As have many travellers and dreams.
I wish you all the best! We have had some of the golf courses in the okanagan open since the 15th. Lots of restrictions and members and guests only. Members responsible for the quests with breaking of social distancing rules etc grounds for loss of golfing privileges. Tee times extended to 10 minutes between times. Clubhouse and putting green closed. Asked to not show up more than 30 minutes prior to Tee times or sit in your vehicle. Power carts single occupancy unless you live with the person you are sharing a cart with. KVR trail is also open and people seem very attune to social distancing. People seem to be willing to social distance and are happy to be out and active.
Calgary is an international flight hub. That is why they have more. It spread easily, it will spread regardless of measures.
The critical point is not allowing exponential growth which overwhelmes health care. We don’t have to have that now with carefully managing things because it didn’t happen here.
Slow reopening and understanding people will still get it l.
Largest clusters of those affected in Calgary are out in the burbs – which are more spread out than Edmonton’s. As HH says the more likely factor is the international airport.
The virus has died by the time you drive into Edmonton from the airport out by Leduc. 😉
We know a lot about this now.
The only issue with returning life and income to the vast majority of Canadians is the levels of government getting the context.
Long timers here know that context is everything with stats.
Do not forget that if we are counting social harm, in Canada I would hazard that the fallout from decisions around Covid are more, or approaching more, than actual Covid.
Be careful what you wish for.
Our country must start the way back ASAP for future generations. Cautiously of course, but shutting down repeatedly to protect an already defined few groups of people isn’t a plan for long in a democracy like ours.
Protect and fund those at high risk and move on.
In terms of hockey it is completely possible and reasonable to play without fans at this point.
Some people eat to live…others live to eat.
International flights are still arriving in Calgary.
I hope she relaxes that order Edmonton has barely been hit by Corona! Calgary has been hit harder; but I blame one factor: Population Density
Calgary is closer together EDM is further apart in population .
Glad you enjoyed it. For those who don’t have a subscription, we’re offering a 90-day free trial. If you click on the story link I think that takes you to the free trial.
I really enjoy the prospect lists, thanks for this.
AA is definitely a wild card, might always be… But for sure I could see him being better after having some time to adjust. And maybe recharge after such a brutal losing season with the Wings. He was likely hampered by injury for much of his short time with the Oilers so far. IIRC his last game before the stoppage might have been his best. He could very well end up with McDavid too.
Agree also that Nygard will get some games and could very well be a regular among this group. Same for the D, I think all 8 will get reps and it’s tough to know who’ll grab the regular spots.
Thanks a bunch for this, great info.
“For those who like to eat”. So much can be said about such a comment.
Hell you won’t even have golf tournaments
# that sucks
The killer “B”s. I like it a lot!
N64,
Why do you say that this is not like the flu?
For sure.
He’s a distant bell for the NHL I would think but the Condors could use the veteran pro help.
And also this from 23ABC News (who carried the original press conference). Seems the County Public Health officials were not in agreement with Dr. Erickson as he claimed.
https://www.turnto23.com/news/local-news/public-health-responds-to-comments-made-by-accelerated-urgent-care-doctor-about-reopening
(That’s not to say there shouldn’t be relaxation of the measures)
I don’t think he would be an NHL option – at least not unless he surprises in North America.
The Oiler do need to fill the Condors with some professional depth on the back end.
I’m confidant he’d be slatted for the AHL.
He’d definitely fall in behind Lagesson and would help Sammy in the top 4 for the Condors.
I’m quite looking forward to Sammy’s development this coming year – his 2nd year pro, I’m expecting him to take a fairly significant jump – lots of special teams along with top 4 minutes.
NBA is allowing teams to start opening their facilities in jurisdictions where there is some easing and its permitted. Toronto won’t be opening as they have a ban on gathering above 5 people until in to May.
To my knowledge, NHL has its players under quarantine until the end of April and I thought I heard recently that was likely to be extended in to May.
Hinshaw stated no gatherings over 15 people this summer. There will not be hockey in Edmonton for a long time…
Harpers Hair,
Seems we are getting another hall of fame defenceman 🙂
Atta boy – thank you very much.
JJ,
A reply also from Bakersfield.
https://www.kget.com/health/coronavirus/local-physicians-reject-doctors-call-to-re-open-society/
We don’t have shelter in place in Alberta just pretty wide closures and social distancing rules in public outdoors with people from different households. Certainly looking forward to creative relaxation of restrictions especially around work and the outdoors .
This is not like the flu. First wave is passing. Important to get the most bang for the buck for everyone as we partially relax social distancing . Expecting the 4 largest Canadian provinces to lay out reopening phases next week.
UPDATE
@CT_Bergstrom
Sampling bias can be subtle.
But assuming that patients in Urgent Care during a pandemic are a random sample of the population at large? Unbelievable
Lennström is very much a signing to solidify the AHL group Imo, took a big step in his development this season but I think the chance he moves the needle much in the NHL is slim. Probably a good top 4 AHL D though, Holland spoke a few weeks ago about how it’s difficult finding D, with how many AHL guys who have graduated or are about to they need some quality down in the A to make sure Samorukov isn’t thrown to the wolves. And it seems like every somewhat decent SHL D coming over is at least a good top 4 guy in the AHL of late so Lennström should do well enough down there.
He’s got some skill but nothing spectacular, good skater, took big steps defensively this year as he got stronger and more assertive, hard worker. The epitome of solid but unspectacular I’d say. So should be a good AHLer and is probably ok as someone you throw on your third pair for a few games in case the injuries pile up, unlikely to be more than that but here’s to hoping. His stand out skill is his skating I’d say and since that’s a premium in the NHL today there’s a small chance he surprises but I’m not holding my breath. Still a smart move from Holland securing what should be a good AHLer. If he lands him. The rumour a few weeks ago was that he was close to signing with Dallas.
This is a fantastic write-up – I’m only a third of the way through – going to take some time to work through it but I’m excited. Thanks Al.
New for The Athletic: Top 20 prospect update: A lot of movement and some impressive graduations
https://theathletic.com/1754993/2020/04/25/top-20-prospect-update-a-lot-of-movement-and-some-impressive-graduations/
I think you’ve got that covered quite well.
I’ve been posting that I think that AA is going to benefit next season from having a full training camp under Coach T. where he learns the systems and what the coach requires from him, shift in and shift out (and the coach learns about the player). Given that there will be at least 2-3 weeks of some sort of “camp” prior to any games being started (if they do start), I wonder if there will be time for that “learning” to occur. Maybe we see a better AA if there is a re-start?
It’ll be interesting to see where Nygard slots in given the two new skilled forwards since he last played (Ennis and AA). I’m not sure the re-start/playoffs is the time to go there but he does have some plus numbers with 97 in a small sample.
Yup, given usage in his two games, it seems Coach T. (and Playfair) see Green as more than 3rd pairing/depth guy and he very well may play over Benning. I’m not sure I like it but there is some potential “reward” there and it would be a solid “test drive” to see if he should be re-signed and, if so, if he has more than 12 minutes per night of game left in him.
McDavid and Drai rested – that is something the NHL should be afraid of.
I suppose it’s possible. NHLE of 24 is pretty modest considering he’s apparently a PP option. Klefbom, Nurse and Jones are clearly ahead on offense I’d say. Russell and Lagesson would be arguable. Lennstrom is no Joel Persson after all.
Given the depth chart, I would think so. But when you look at his stats from the last full season, he does have some offense that alternatives might not.