Teenage Wasteland

How many truly talented forwards are available in the 2020 draft? Is it possible the Oilers could deliver more than one future NHL player, something the scouts accomplished with defensemen in 2015?

While we’re on the subject of 2015, how many outstanding forwards were available that season? How many turned out? Does 2020 have more or less?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Mavrik Bourque a quality option for the Oilers in the draft
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Inside the franchise-altering decision to pick Leon Draisaitl over Sam Bennett
  • Lowetide: Adam Larsson’s Oilers future uncertain as ‘sexy’ options emerge
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: One-on-one with Wayne Gretzky: On the time he visited Moscow during the Cold War
  • Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Discount forward options the Oilers could pursue in free agency
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Oh my God, Edmonton’s picking first’: An oral history of the 2015 NHL draft lottery
  • Lowetide: Comparison of Oilers, Flames drafts 2010-19 closer than it should be
  • Lowetide: The most potent lines in Oilers history
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: On the time Dave Semenko fought Muhammad Ali
  • Lowetide: Why Jan Mysak could be a value pick for the Oilers at the 2020 Draft
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers overcame malice in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver to join the NHL
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Remembering Jacques Plante’s brief tenure with the Oilers at age 45
  • Lowetide: Oilers need to find (or get) real value in William Lagesson
  • Jonathan Willis: What does the Oilers best possible playoff lineup look like?
  • Lowetide: Why Jack Quinn is a perfect 2020 draft fit for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ five-on-five with and without Connor McDavid is improving
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: If play does not resume, 5 notable questions that will go unanswered in Edmonton

In 2014-15, 19 CHL players scored .68/game or more at even strength. Several would emerge as outstanding NHL players in the years that followed.

OHL 2014-15 FORWARDS

  1. Connor McDavid 47GP, 32-40-72 1.53 (351 NHL games)
  2. Dylan Strome 68GP, 31-48-79 1.16 (164)
  3. Mitch Marner 63GP, 25-37-62 .980 (300)
  4. Travis Konecny 60GP, 22-26-48 .800 (299)
  5. Dante Salituro 68GP, 23-27-50 .740
  6. Blake Speers 57GP, 14-25-39 .680 (3)

This is a tremendous group, with McDavid and Marner leading the way. Travis Konecny was a highly successful first-round selection, Dylan Strome has traction in Chicago. Speers was a third-round pick who didn’t develop and Salituro wasn’t drafted but did get an NHL contract in 2016 and has played pro. Everyone at .80 or better emerged as an NHL regular or better.

QMJHL 2014-15 FORWARDS

  1. Dmytro Timashev 66GP, 12-52-64 .970 (44 NHL games)
  2. Evgeny Svechnikov 55GP, 22-30-52 .950 (20)
  3. Timo Meier 61GP, 19-33-52 .850 (263)
  4. Yakov Trenin 58Gp, 12-33-45 .780 (21)
  5. Kay Schweri 53GP, 7-32-39 .740
  6. Filip Chlapik 64GP, 23-22-45 .700 (56)
  7. Dennis Yan 59GP, 23-18-41 .690
  8. Daniel Sprong 68GP, 22-24-46 .680 (97)

Timo Meier was a top-10 pick and emerged quickly as a solid NHL player. Yakov Trenin was a second-round selection and he arrived this season, looking good so far. Filip Chlapik was a second-round pick who has played in the NHL and is finding his way. Daniel Sprong was a second-round pick who has scored 19 goals in 97 NHL games but is on his third organization since turning pro.

Dmytro Timashov was a fifth round pick who played in the NHL for the first time this season. I think he has a chance. Evgeny Svechnikov was a top-20 pick who has stalled. Kay Schweri was not drafted and did not develop. Dennis Yan was an early third rounder (Lightning pick) who has been in the AHL for three seasons delivering pedestrian offense. Everyone over .80 has played in the NHL.

WHL 2014-15 FORWARDS

  1. Mathew Barzal 44GP, 9-25-34 .770 (234 NHL games)
  2. Paul Bittner 66GP, 23-26-49 .740
  3. Jansen Harkins 70GP, 16-36-52 .740 (29)
  4. Jake DeBrusk 72GP, 26-23-49 .680 (203)

Mathew Barzal was a mid-first and no one has heard from him since draft day. Jake DeBrusk went before Barzal and is building a solid NHL career. Jansen Harkins was chosen in the second round, took some time to find his way to the NHL, and looks like he has a shot. Paul Bittner was also a second and seems to have stalled in the AHL. None of the men in the WHL hit .80, but two of the four are legit NHL players or better.

One of the things NHLE attempts to correct is what you see here. Barzal’s number doesn’t look impressive beside the OHL and QMJHL kids but he did lead the WHL among kids age 17 in his draft year. Followed it up with a great deal of success in the NHL. Let’s have a look at this year’s group, I’m using Central Scouting’s final list as the pool, all players first time eligible. All numbers even strength and I’m looking for .68 points per game (same as last time).

OHL FORWARDS 2020

  1. Marco Rossi 56, 31-49-80 1.43
  2. Quinton Byfield 45, 24-32-56 1.24
  3. Cole Perfetti 69, 29-49-78 1.13
  4. Luke Evangelista 62, 22-35-57 0.92
  5. Jack Quinn 62, 34-19-53 0.86
  6. Martin Chromiak 28, 7-15-22 0.79
  7. Ty Tullio 62, 19-29-48 0.77
  8. Brandon Coe 60, 21-23-44 0.73
  9. Jacob Perreault 57, 24-17-41 0.72
  10. Evan Vierling 43, 13-18-31 0.72
  11. Tyson Foerster 62, 16-28-44 0.71
  12. Zayde Wisdom 62, 20-24-44 0.71

This is a monster list and a guy I really like (Jan Mysak) barely missed making it. One thing I would like to ask the group: When you see a dozen men posting above 0.68 per game at evens, how many would you rather have than Barzal, who posted just 0.77 per game? Very important to include context for scale. The dub is a more defensive league, and that doesn’t always mean less talented.

When you see a player like Evangelista so high, it tells us one good thing (he can flat out play at evens) and one poor thing (he doesn’t get power play time). I don’t have a good answer, quality scorers play with the man advantage. I am saying Evangelista, a February 2002, is worth a long look. London Knights are a deep team, that’s certainly part of the explanation.

QMJHL FORWARDS 2020

  1. Alexis Lafreniere 52, 30-40-70 1.35
  2. Mavrik Bourque 49, 25-20-45 0.92
  3. Ryan Francis 61, 21-34-55 0.90
  4. Dawson Mercer 42, 16-18-34 0.81
  5. William Dufour 59, 25-21-46 0.78
  6. Hendrix Lapierre 19, 2-12-14 0.74

There’s a big gap between Lafreniere and the rest of the group, I think that’s an indicator of “special” quality ala McDavid. I’m not saying he IS McDavid, only that at even strength he is elite in his own league. I like Bourque a lot, Mercer too, and Francis shows well here. I’m not sure what to make of Hendrix Lapierre. Injuries during draft seasons are a major pain in the ass.

WHL FORWARDS 2020

  1. Seth Jarvis 58, 32-36-68 1.17
  2. Justin Sourdif 57, 22-25-47 0.82
  3. Jake Neighbours 64, 19-31-50 0.78
  4. Connor Zary 57, 20-24-44 0.77
  5. Jack Finley 61, 15-32-47 0.77
  6. Tristen Robins 62, 23-25-48 0.77
  7. Connor McLennon 42, 15-15-30 0.71
  8. Pavel Novak 55, 16-22-38 0.69

Jarvis is a nice player, these are good numbers. I don’t know where he’ll go (I have Jarvis and Zary top 20) but it’s possible we see a slide and that could set up another Barzal moment in the draft. In the most defensive league in the CHL, he posted the fourth best number. Zary does well in rankings, don’t think he’ll slit. This fellow Finley keeps showing up in good places, I’m going to spend a little more time looking at his season in the days to come. Neighbours is a player I have pegged as a future Ethan Moreau but he shows very well here.

PONDERING

This is even strength scoring and I remain unconvinced it uncovers those two-way Dave Keon/Ryan Nugent-Hopkins types but I like to run it every year. I used to believe in this area a lot, but kids who get power-play time (or really extra minutes on special teams) in draft seasons tend to be more successful. Even the good two-way players are prone to this:

  • Nuge at evens 2010-11: 69, 20-27-47 0.68
  • Nuge on PP 2010-11: 69, 11-48-59 0.86
  • Nuge overall 2010-11: 69, 31-75-106 1.54

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we’ll kickstart a beautiful spring weekend with lots of sports talk. Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports will talk about the NFL draft and last night’s presentation and how hurdles can turn into blessings on television. Matt Iwanyk will join me at 11 for Point-Counter Point and we’ll talk about the first round of the NFL draft and the weekend to come. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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75 Responses to "Teenage Wasteland"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I know very little about most of the players individually, however, from what I’ve heard/read, the forward talent is high and deep – assuming the Oilers draft 20-23, from accounts, there should be some high skill forwards available – good draft to want/need a forward.

  2. dustrock says:

    Kournianos (The Draft Analyst) thinks that the OHL defence and goaltending has been terrible this year and he thinks some of the top forwards’ stats are inflated.

    Re Jarvis that number is shining like a national guitar but have read some reports there are concerns about his playatyle translating. Gets many of his points off the rush; well, so do 97&29.

  3. J-Bo says:

    The one thing this review of the 15 draft shows is that es scoring is not a great predictor of things to come.

  4. LadiesloveSmid says:

    You wonder how many of the top ES producers that didn’t pan out played on high end junior teams. I liked Evgeny Svechnikov at 16 in 2015, he was 3rd in team scoring. His teammate Loik Leveille went to oiler development camp. I was convinced they should sign him. I am often wrong.

    Seth Jarvis looks like a future superstar. Led his team in scoring by 28, February 2002 birthday.

  5. Elgin R says:

    Great value can be found later in the first round – the position the Oilers will be drafting in (20?). Yamamoto was taken 22nd in 2017 (ranked 24th) and has the 4th highest PPG of all players from that draft – small sample size but his play in 2020 was exceptional. What does that imply? That in-person interviews are a significant part of the ranking process. If that is unavailable, can the NHL proceed with the draft this summer?

    Mavrik Bourque may be another KY – tenacious, right shot. Give this young man (Jan 2002) three years and we may finally have the right-shot center we need. I am always hesitant with scoring numbers from the Q, but all the scouting reports look good.

    Still hoping Seth Jarvis will fall to the Oil

  6. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Seth Jarvis looks like a future superstar. Led his team in scoring by 28, February 2002 birthday.

    Elgin R: Still hoping Seth Jarvis will fall to the Oil

    Big fan of Seth Jarvis myself. I think he’s criminally underrated by most casual observers and I’m not sure why. Size maybe? He’s got everything else in spades.

    Would love to see him in Oilers silks.

  7. ArmchairGM says:

    dustrock:
    Re Jarvis that number is shining like a national guitar but have read some reports there are concerns about his playatyle translating.

    Really? Reports from whom? Everything I’ve seen is positive about translating. Pronman, for instance:

    “He’s a good skater as well who creates on the move and has a style of game that projects to the pro level.”

  8. Munny says:

    If the draft happens on its scheduled day, I imagine that means the remainder of the season and the playoffs have been cancelled.

    If they are not cancelled, we have at least 4 months to go before the draft.

  9. defmn says:

    Munny:
    If the draft happens on its scheduled day, Iimagine that means the remainder of the season and the playoffs have been cancelled.

    If they are not cancelled, we have at least 4 months to go before the draft.

    Or they just choose a draft order based upon criteria different than most years.

    The league could hold a lottery to choose the order for the bottom 15 teams and another for the top 16 who would normally qualify for playoffs.

    I doubt the league knows what they are going to do at this point.

    EDIT: Or maybe they do.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-draft-work-june-amid-covid-19-pandemic/

  10. jtblack says:

    “William Dufour 59, 25-21-46 0.78”

    know nothing about this kid… seems intriguing??

    LT: do you know what Ridly Greig (Brandon) 5×5 pts were?

  11. Munny says:

    defmn: Or they just choose a draft order based upon criteria different than most years.

    The league could hold a lottery to choose the order for the bottom 15 teams and another for the top 16 who would normally qualify for playoffs.

    I doubt the league knows what they are going to do at this point.

    Lol, I’m not sure the League ever knows what it is doing…

  12. defmn says:

    Munny: Lol, I’m not sure the League ever knows what it is doing…

    Most of us don’t. 😉

    I did add a link I found after I posted that speculates the draft will be held on June 5th & 6th.

    Order to be determined.

  13. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Question for those who follow prospects closely:

    Do you see any quality prospects who are likely to slide during the draft? Someone in the Barzal, Veleno, or Kaliyev mold?

    Or perhaps a sleeper who would be a good value as a late first (or potentially in the second presuming Kenny recoups a pick)?

  14. doritogrande says:

    Daniel Sprong was a second-round pick who has scored 19 goals in 97 NHL games but is on his third organization since turning pro

    Sprong’s story (and Duclair’s before him) have taught me that if I have a son who happens to be good enough at hockey (but not so good that he’s a lottery pick) that a team wants to keep him for his 18-year old season, I will tell him to immediately demand a trade to save the drafting team from their own stupidity. What a way to ruin a promising career.

    No, I don’t know who Ryan O’Reilly is. Why do you ask?

  15. Munny says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Question for those who follow prospects closely:

    Do you see any quality prospects who are likely to slide during the draft?Someone in the Barzal, Veleno, or Kaliyev mold?

    Or perhaps a sleeper who would be a good value as a late first (or potentially in the second presuming Kenny recoups a pick)?

    Jarvis is a decent candidate, but he has been climbing lists since Xmas. Think he jumped about 20 spots on Button’s list. Of course, that doesn’t tell us what the actual scouts think.

  16. jp says:

    J-Bo:
    The one thing this review of the 15 draft shows is that es scoring is not a great predictor of things to come.

    Ahhh…

    5 of the 7 forwards from 2015 who scored .800 P/G have scored 50+ points in an NHL season (by age 23).

    1 of 11 forwards listed who scored less than .800 P/G have scored 50 points in a season.

  17. jp says:

    Elgin R:
    Great value can be found later in the first round – the position the Oilers will be drafting in (20?).Yamamoto was taken 22nd in 2017 (ranked 24th) and has the 4th highest PPG of all players from that draft – small sample size but his play in 2020 was exceptional.What does that imply?That in-personinterviews are a significant part of the ranking process.If that is unavailable, can the NHL proceed with the draft this summer?

    Yamamoto was also a very strong scorer in his draft year. Not sure where he ranked but it was much higher than his draft ranking and the number he was ultimately picked. IIRC LT was on top of that and his list had Yamamoto higher, where it looks like he should have been. I don’t know how he interviewed, but math would have been very informative on Yamamoto

  18. jp says:

    doritogrande:

    No, I don’t know who Ryan O’Reilly is. Why do you ask?

    Or Patrice Bergeron.

  19. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Question for those who follow prospects closely:

    Do you see any quality prospects who are likely to slide during the draft?Someone in the Barzal, Veleno, or Kaliyev mold?

    Or perhaps a sleeper who would be a good value as a late first (or potentially in the second presuming Kenny recoups a pick)?

    ArmchairGM has been touting Hendrix Lapierre who should go lower due to injuries.

  20. jp says:

    defmn: Or they just choose a draft order based upon criteria different than most years.

    The league could hold a lottery to choose the order for the bottom 15 teams and another for the top 16 who would normally qualify for playoffs.

    Does Lafreniere play in the NHL playoffs this summer? 🙂

  21. Lowetide says:

    jp: Yamamoto was also a very strong scorer in his draft year. Not sure where he ranked but it was much higher than his draft ranking and the number he was ultimately picked. IIRC LT was on top of that and his list had Yamamoto higher, where it looks like he should have been. I don’t know how he interviewed, but math would have been very informative on Yamamoto

    I had him No. 11
    https://lowetide.ca/2017/06/23/here-comes-the-sun-2017-draft-edition/

  22. defmn says:

    jp: Does Lafreniere play in the NHL playoffs this summer?

    Hehe. I don’t believe Detroit is going to let any of their players participate. 😉

    \

  23. jp says:

    defmn: Hehe. I don’t believe Detroit is going to let any of their players participate.

    \

    Maybe the league decides on a really whacky playoff qualification scheme…

  24. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Munny,

    jp,

    Interesting. Thank you gents.

    I would also add LT has mentioned Mavrik Borque may slide far enough for us to draft him. I think that would be my ideal outcome, since there’s no way in hell Drysdale falls that far.

  25. defmn says:

    I know that Matheson announced that the Oilers have signed Berglund but has anybody seen an official announcement?

  26. Munny says:

    jp: I don’t know how he interviewed…

    “You gotta draft me, otherwise I’m gonna come back and haunt you.” ( Ie, The Moto Motto)

    I’d say he interviewed well, lol.

  27. jp says:

    Munny: “You gotta draft me, otherwise I’m gonna come back and haunt you.” ( Ie, The Moto Motto)

    I’d say he interviewed well, lol.

    I’d forgotten that! Fair to say he had more than one thing to recommend him.

  28. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Munny,

    jp,

    Interesting.Thank you gents.

    I would also add LT has mentioned Mavrik Borque may slide far enough for us to draft him.I think that would be my ideal outcome, since there’s no way in hell Drysdale falls that far.

    As far as I can tell all of Bourque, Laperierre and Jarvis would be great picks around #23.

  29. Munny says:

    defmn:
    I know that Matheson announced that the Oilers have signed Berglund but has anybody seen an official announcement?

    Searched through Oiler Twit account and I got nothing.

    Found out though that i still get all phklempt whenever I see that video of the cars lined up on the highway for Caver.

  30. ArmchairGM says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Question for those who follow prospects closely:

    Do you see any quality prospects who are likely to slide during the draft?Someone in the Barzal, Veleno, or Kaliyev mold?

    Or perhaps a sleeper who would be a good value as a late first (or potentially in the second presuming Kenny recoups a pick)?

    As JP mentioned, Lapierre is a slide candidate. Looking at McKenzie’s mid-term list, I’d say these players are likely to outperform their ranking:

    #24 Seth Jarvis
    #28 Mavrik Bourque
    #29 Lukas Reichel
    #40 Tyson Foerster
    #41 Helge Grans
    #53 Jan Mysak
    #60 Nico Daws
    #62 Luke Evangelista

    Keep in mind these rankings will change drastically when the next list arrives.

  31. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: Searched through Oiler Twit account and I got nothing.

    Found out though that i still get all phklempt whenever I see that video of the cars lined up on the highway for Caver.

    Neither Cap Friendly or Puckpedia have him listed on the roster.

    Likely didnt happen.

  32. defmn says:

    Munny: Searched through Oiler Twit account and I got nothing.

    Found out though that i still get all phklempt whenever I see that video of the cars lined up on the highway for Caver.

    I find it strange that with so little going on that the team wouldn’t have made an announcement just to stay in the news.

    Could they be waiting for a deadline in the SHL to pass to make it official?

  33. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: Neither Cap Friendly or Puckpedia have him listed on the roster.

    Likely didnt happen.

    I feel like Matty is the kind of guy who would have publicly retracted the statement if it turned out he was in error.

  34. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: I had him No. 11
    https://lowetide.ca/2017/06/23/here-comes-the-sun-2017-draft-edition/

    Fun to look back at your lists ….. You had a great Top 20 ….

  35. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    ArmchairGM,

    That’s fantastic, I’ll review these guys some more. Thank you.

  36. defmn says:

    Munny: I feel like Matty is the kind of guy who would have publicly retracted the statement if it turned out he was in error.

    Agreed. Matty many not be cutting edge after all these decades but he is definitely old school when it comes to getting it right and owning up if something goes amiss.

  37. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide: I had him No. 11
    https://lowetide.ca/2017/06/23/here-comes-the-sun-2017-draft-edition/

    Hilarious how many posters dumped on Benning for selecting Pettersson so high.
    He would go first overall in a re-draft.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Speculation on May 15th training camps.

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/23/nhl-team-planning-may-15-workouts-ahead-of-possible-restart/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons

    A bit misleading – as per the article, Brooks is saying that he’s heard one team is planning for a camp report date for May 15.

    The article also has a quote from Bill Daly saying that he doesn’t know what teams have told players but there is nothing from the league on this.

    Of course, with two week mandatory isolation for international travel, if that’s the case, the players better get where they need to within the next week….

    Lastly, Larry Brooks……

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    If the draft happens on its scheduled day, Iimagine that means the remainder of the season and the playoffs have been cancelled.

    If they are not cancelled, we have at least 4 months to go before the draft.

    On point 1 – I don’t think that’s actually the case – the are contemplating the draft but still a potential completion of the year, or at least playoffs.

    From what I’ve heard/read, the June draft idea has been met with general negativity among managers, etc.

    Don’t see it happening (unless the season is cancelled – which is not the current contemplated idea).

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    doritogrande:
    Daniel Sprong was a second-round pick who has scored 19 goals in 97 NHL games but is on his third organization since turning pro

    Sprong’s story (and Duclair’s before him) have taught me that if I have a son who happens to be good enough at hockey (but not so good that he’s a lottery pick) that a team wants to keep him for his 18-year old season, I will tell him to immediately demand a trade to save the drafting team from their own stupidity. What a way to ruin a promising career.

    No, I don’t know who Ryan O’Reilly is. Why do you ask?

    The kid can also just not sign his ELC……….

    For CHL drafted kids, after two years, if they aren’t signed, the NHL team loses their rights (they go back in the draft or become a UFA depending on age).

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: I find it strange that with so little going on that the team wouldn’t have made an announcement just to stay in the news.

    Could they be waiting for a deadline in the SHL to pass to make it official?

    No deadline – he can sign any time.

    My guess is it done and they are waiting for Marcus Niemeläinen to sign and it’ll be announced together.

    I don’t see why Matty would just make that up?

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Hilarious how many posters dumped on Benning for selecting Pettersson so high.
    He would go first overall in a re-draft.

    Definitely could go 1st overall but no sure thing. Top 3 for sure but botha case can be made for both Heiskanen and Makar to go ahead.

    Makar’s PPG aren’t far off from Petersson this year didn’t really improve on his rookie season.

  43. Harpers Hair says:

    Elliotte Friedman reporting the Flames are closing in on signing 22 year RHD Johannes Kinvall who was second in SHL D scoring.

  44. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: Hilarious how many posters dumped on Benning for selecting Pettersson so high.
    He would go first overall in a re-draft.

    Heiskanen would go #1.

  45. Harpers Hair says:

    More from Friedman that could explain the holdup on Berglun’s contract.

    The NHL transfer agreement is expiring and the league is looking at extending it by one year.

    An announcement expected next week.

  46. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10: Heiskanen would go #1.

    Depends on the team drafting and whether they value a franchise D or C more.

  47. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    More from Friedman that could explain the holdup on Berglun’s contract.

    The NHL transfer agreement is expiring and the league is looking at extending it by one year.

    An announcement expected next week.

    That could be it. That and what OP suggested that there is another signing close and they want to announce them together.

    I just thought it was strange with fans starved for news that it wouldn’t have come out through an official press release.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    ElliotteFriedman reporting the Flames are closing in on signing 22 year RHD Johannes Kinvall who was second in SHL D scoring.

    Whoa, 40 points in 51 games this year – damn, that’s good at that age for a d-man.

    Double his output (similar games) from the previous year.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    On the heels of Brooks hearing one team was looking to start up on May 15th:

    John Scott
    @johnscott_32
    ·
    45m
    Just got word that the NHL camps will begin again June 1… European players are coming back soon #breaking

  50. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: That could be it. That and what OP suggested that there is another signing close and they want to announce them together.

    I just thought it was strange with fans starved for news that it wouldn’t have come out through an official press release.

    I don’t think it can be official without the transfer agreement in place.

  51. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Whoa, 40 points in 51 games this year – damn, that’s good at that age for a d-man.

    Double his output (similar games) from the previous year.

    With the signings of two blue chip undrafted D, the Flames are loading up on young D,

    Remember they also signed NCAA star Colton Poolman a while back.

    TJ Brodie and Travis Hamonic will likely be looking for a job.

  52. Gerta Rauss says:

    Thanks for changing the format of the comment section LT

  53. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    On the heels of Brooks hearing one team was looking to start up on May 15th:

    John Scott
    @johnscott_32
    ·
    45m
    Just got word that the NHL camps will begin again June 1… European players are coming back soon #breaking

    Didn’t expect that so soon.

  54. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    On the heels of Brooks hearing one team was looking to start up on May 15th:

    John Scott
    @johnscott_32
    ·
    45m
    Just got word that the NHL camps will begin again June 1… European players are coming back soon #breaking

    That’d be real cool.

  55. yeraslob says:

    Harpers Hair: With the signings of two blue chip undrafted D, the Flames are loading up on young D,

    Remember they also signed NCAA star Colton Poolman a while back.

    TJ Brodie and Travis Hamonic will likely be looking for a job.

    That’s too bad. Was hoping they’d keep t-minus Brodie and Hurtmonic to complement the Norris winner turned pylon.

  56. Harpers Hair says:

    yeraslob: That’s too bad.Was hoping they’d keep t-minus Brodie and Hurtmonic to complement the Norris winner turned pylon.

    Hanifin – 23
    Andersson – 23
    Kylington – 22
    Kinvall – 22
    Poolman -24
    Valimaki – 21

    Pretty much blows away any teams defensive depth.

  57. jp says:

    Lowetide: How many truly talented forwards are available in the 2020 draft? Is it possible the Oilers could deliver more than one future NHL player, something the scouts accomplished with defensemen in 2015?

    While we’re on the subject of 2015, how many outstanding forwards were available that season? How many turned out? Does 2020 have more or less?

    There are clearly a ton of high scoring forwards this year but league scoring differences leave a 2015 to 2020 comparison a bit incomplete.

    I looked at how many goals were scored per game in each league and each year to see if we can normalize things:

    2014-15
    OHL — 7.01
    QMJHL 7.04
    WHL — 6.62

    2019-20
    OHL — 7.72
    QMJHL 6.93
    WHL — 6.54

    The OHL was indeed very high scoring this season, and the WHL has been the most defensive league both years.

    The OHL scored more than a goal per game more than the WHL this year but it’s still not 20% more scoring, and that’s the biggest difference. What were the percentage differences in G/GP, taking 19-20 WHL as 100%?

    2014-15
    OHL — 107
    QMJHL 108
    WHL — 101

    2019-20
    OHL — 118
    QMJHL 106
    WHL — 100

    Using 0.68 even strength points per game in the lowest scoring league (19-20 WHL) as the cutoff, what would the corresponding PPG in the other leagues/years need to be?

    2014-15
    OHL — 0.729
    QMJHL 0.731
    WHL — 0.689

    2019-20
    OHL — 0.803
    QMJHL 0.721
    WHL — 0.680

    So revisiting the lists above, how many players from each league/year meet these cutoffs?
    2014-15
    OHL — 5
    QMJHL 5
    WHL — 3

    2019-20
    OHL — 5
    QMJHL 6
    WHL — 8

    Wow, that really took the sails out of this years OHL crew (5 from 12 initially). But the QMJHL and WHL look really good.

    So, 13 players from 2014-15 reached the normalized cutoff. 19 players reached the normalized cutoff this season.

    And if you normalize the 0.800 cutoff that LT mentions above you get:
    2014-15
    OHL — 3
    QMJHL 2
    WHL — 0

    2019-20
    OHL — 3
    QMJHL 3
    WHL — 2

    8 players this year to 5 in 2015.

    This is a damn strong draft year by the looks of it, as we keep hearing about. Oilers should get a nice player at 23 you’d think.

  58. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Hanifin – 23
    Andersson– 23
    Kylington – 22
    Kinvall – 22
    Poolman -24
    Valimaki – 21

    Pretty much blows away any teams defensive depth.

    I take it you were looking for this?

    Nurse – 25
    Benning -25
    Lagesson – 24
    Bear – 22
    Jones – 22
    Berglund – 22
    Bouchard – 20
    Samorukov – 20
    Broberg -18

  59. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: I take it you were looking for this?

    Nurse – 25
    Benning -25
    Lagesson – 24
    Bear – 22
    Jones – 22
    Berglund – 22
    Bouchard – 20
    Samorukov – 20
    Broberg -18

    Nurse will be 26 soon. Hanifin is much younger.

    Benning is likely gone.

    At 24, Lagesson ain’t much.

    Samorukov is a distant bell.

    I would take the Calgary group in a heartbeat.

  60. yeraslob says:

    Harpers Hair: Hanifin – 23
    Andersson– 23
    Kylington – 22
    Kinvall – 22
    Poolman -24
    Valimaki – 21

    Pretty much blows away any teams defensive depth.

    In a perfect world, they would give those older D the boot. But these are your hapless fLames. They actually think Brodie can play on the top pair? How long is Gio supposed to carry him? How do you win the Norris then turn into a playoff no show pylon in the same year? Season too long for Geritol Gio? Will Hurtmonic ever play a full season? Good thing they have those young defensemen, they’ll need every one of them they way these 3 are trending.

  61. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Nurse will be 26 soon. Hanifin is much younger.

    Benning is likely gone.

    At 24, Lagesson ain’t much.

    Samorukov is a distant bell.

    I would take the Calgary group in a heartbeat.

    Nurse is less than a year older than Poolman.

    And well, good luck with the Calgary group. I’ll stick with the Oilers one.

  62. duct tape and foil says:

    Lowetide: I had him No. 11
    https://lowetide.ca/2017/06/23/here-comes-the-sun-2017-draft-edition/

    Exactly where he ranks in career points as of today.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Nurse will be 26 soon. Hanifin is much younger.

    Benning is likely gone.

    At 24, Lagesson ain’t much.

    Samorukov is a distant bell.

    I would take the Calgary group in a heartbeat.

    Yup, Hannifin is younger and he’s good but not that good. Room to grow by Nurse/Klefbom trump Hannifin.

    I’ll take Bear over Andersson – very comparable but Bear is younger.

    Jones vs. Kylington is a toss-up – probably favors Jones given 2020.

    Bouchard >>>> Valimaki

    The new Swede and the 24 year old college signing could turn out to be NHL players or nothing but tweeners – same with Berglund and Samorukov.

    Broberg could be the best of the entire list – years to go though.

    Of course you’d take the flames group but you’d also take Rafferty over Bouchard, Klefbom and Bear so your opinion on this, well, not sure it can be taken all that seriously.

  64. defmn says:

    jp: There are clearly a ton of high scoring forwards this year but league scoring differences leave a 2015 to 2020 a bit incomplete.

    I looked at how many goals were scored per game in each league and each year to see if we can normalize things:

    2014-15
    OHL — 7.01
    QMJHL 7.04
    WHL — 6.62

    2019-20
    OHL — 7.72
    QMJHL 6.93
    WHL — 6.54

    The OHL was indeed very high scoring this season, and the WHL has been the most defensive league both years.

    The OHL scored more than a goal per game more than the WHL this year but it’s still not 20% more scoring, and that’s the biggest difference. What were the percentage differences in G/GP, taking 19-20 WHL as 100%?

    2014-15
    OHL — 107
    QMJHL 108
    WHL — 101

    2019-20
    OHL — 118
    QMJHL 106
    WHL — 100

    Using 0.68 even strength points per game in the lowest scoring league (19-20 WHL) as the cutoff, what would the corresponding PPG in the other leagues/years need to be?

    2014-15
    OHL — 0.729
    QMJHL 0.731
    WHL — 0.689

    2019-20
    OHL — 0.803
    QMJHL 0.721
    WHL — 0.680

    So revisiting the lists above, how many players from each league/year meet these cutoffs?
    2014-15
    OHL — 5
    QMJHL 5
    WHL — 3

    2019-20
    OHL — 5
    QMJHL 6
    WHL — 8

    Wow, that really took the sails out of this years OHL crew (5 from 12 initially). But the QMJHL and WHL look really good.

    So, 13 players from 2014-15 reached the normalized cutoff. 19 players reached the normalized cutoff this season.

    And if you normalize the 0.800 cutoff that LT mentions above you get:
    2014-15
    OHL — 3
    QMJHL 2
    WHL — 0

    2019-20
    OHL — 3
    QMJHL 3
    WHL — 2

    8 players to 5 this year vs. 2015.

    This is a damn strong draft year by the looks of it, as we keep hearing about. Oilers should get a nice player at 23 you’d think.

    Thanks for this. It answered every question I had.

  65. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Hanifin – 23
    Andersson– 23
    Kylington – 22
    Kinvall – 22
    Poolman -24
    Valimaki – 21

    Pretty much blows away any teams defensive depth.

    It takes more than a list of drafted players for defensive depth. What you are showing is merely a list of names after the first three or four.

  66. jp says:

    defmn: Thanks for this. It answered every question I had.

    Ha, you’re welcome.

  67. Harpers Hair says:

    pts2pndr: It takes more than a list of drafted players for defensive depth. What you are showing is merely a list of names after the first three or four.

    But Bouchard, Berglund and Broberg count?

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yup, Hannifin is younger and he’s good but not that good. Room to grow by Nurse/Klefbom trump Hannifin.

    I’ll take Bear over Andersson – very comparable but Bear is younger.

    Jones vs. Kylington is a toss-up – probably favors Jones given 2020.

    Bouchard >>>> Valimaki

    The new Swede and the 24 year old college signing could turn out to be NHL players or nothing but tweeners – same with Berglund and Samorukov.

    Broberg could be the best of the entire list – years to go though.

    Of course you’d take the flames group but you’d also take Rafferty over Bouchard, Klefbom and Bear so your opinion on this, well, not sure it can be taken all that seriously.

  69. BONE207 says:

    jp: I take it you were looking for this?

    Harpers Hair

    Hanifin – 23 GP…389
    Andersson– 23 GP…160
    Kylington – 22 GP…87
    Kinvall – 22 GP…0
    Poolman -24 GP…0
    Valimaki – 21 GP…24

    Nurse – 25 GP…350
    Benning -25. GP…248
    Lagesson – 24 GP…8
    Bear – 22 GP…89
    Jones – 22 GP…60
    Berglund – 22 GP…0
    Bouchard – 20 GP…7
    Samorukov – 20 GP…0
    Broberg -18 GP…0

    A fine example of trolling. What one beholds as supremely desirable of 1 list over the other is purely bias at its best. If Woodguy was around, I’d ask him to tell you, Andrew, where Ricki lives so that you can poke him with your stick.

    The only thing being blown away is your credibility with posts like this. Stick to the recipes…

  70. jp says:

    Not a vaccine but this could be a pretty big deal, no?

    “1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html

  71. defmn says:

    jp:
    Not a vaccine but this could be a pretty big deal, no?

    “1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html

    It’s why Sweden went with herd immunity. There are a lot of people studying this situation who think that the only way out of this is to let it run its course and that no measures taken will do more than slow the spread as opposed to stop it.

    There are more questions than answers though with this virus. Disparity of death rates between countries. Difference in severity between those who contract it. I have yet to hear reasonable answers to either of those.

  72. Bank Shot says:

    Harpers Hair: Hanifin – 23
    Andersson– 23
    Kylington – 22
    Kinvall – 22
    Poolman -24
    Valimaki – 21

    Pretty much blows away any teams defensive depth.

    lol.

    I’ll take Buffalo

    Dahlin

    There is dumb and then there is Trump dumb. Congrats. You qualified with that statement.

  73. jp says:

    defmn: It’s why Sweden went with herd immunity. There are a lot of people studying this situation who think that the only way out of this is to let it run its course and that no measures taken will do more than slow the spread as opposed to stop it.

    There are more questions than answers though with this virus. Disparity of death rates between countries. Difference in severity between those who contract it. I have yet to hear reasonable answers to either of those.

    Yes there’s a lot we don’t know still. Those numbers suggest:
    1) we’re closer to herd immunity than we realize, and
    2) the virus is less deadly than we realize.

    Both would be good news, if true.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair: Nurse will be 26 soon.

    You really do work hard building your narrative, don’t you? Nurse’s birthday is in February, and last I checked that isn’t “soon”.

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