Last chance for Rasanen

by Lowetide

The 2016 draft needed to be a strong one. Edmonton general managers had been trading their picks in the previous two drafts, and it was important to load up with possible solutions to arrive after the expiry of Connor McDavid’s entry deal, when money would be tight. Inexpensive options would be needed and the Oilers cashed 2015’s second and third (plus some picks that had been acquired) and the second and third round picks in 2014. The 2016 draft needed to deliver.

Five years later: The 2016 draft needed to deliver.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!

THE CURRENT STATE OF THE 2016 DRAFT

  1. No. 4 overall RW Jesse Puljujarvi. Edmonton Oilers winger coming off his best season (15 goals) and one year away from his first significant contract.
  2. No. 32 overall LW Tyler Benson. Bakersfield Condors winger is waiver eligible this fall, that could be the difference in what looks like a competitive battle for No. 4 LW and extra forwards. Among Devin Shore, Brendan Perlini, Dylan Holloway and Benson, it’s not clear from here who (or how many) makes the club.
  3. No. 63 LHD Markus Niemelainen. He appeared to be a coin flip for an entry deal, finally signing his on April 30, 2020 (almost four years after he was drafted). Not much was shaking for him until he arrived in Bakersfield for the 2020-21 season. Now his arrows are headed in a good direction and he appears to have a shot at some NHL games. An absolute late-breaking 6.03 defenseman.
  4. No. 84 LHD Matthew Cairns. He was an unusual choice on draft day, I wondered how many CHL talents were still on the board when he was picked. Answer: Josh Mahura (41 games), Victor Mete (199), Riley Stillman (56), Max Lajoie (62). I don’t think that’s a mortal sin, all of these kids were long shots by pick No. 84, but I do think hanging with CHL draft eligibles as long as possible is wise. Cairns had a nice season at the University of Duluth and is unsigned. Edmonton has until August 15, 2022, he is 6.03, 213 and Holland is collecting big men.
  5. No. 91 RHD Filip Berglund. Berglund was the most substantial of the third-round picks in 2016, but his slow boat to North America has him arriving late in the game. A big advantage: He’s righthanded. Another advantage: He has played in a very good league for the last several years. A two-way talent who probably spends 2021-22 in Bakersfield, but there’s a clear path to the NHL if he can play.
  6. No. 123 G Dylan Wells. He posted a .909 save percentage in his first full pro season for the Condors, but in just 12 games and his ECHL totals (.912) were about the same. In 2019-20 when injuries hit the AHL farm club, it was Stuart Skinner who landed the big job in Bakersfield. Wells did sign a contract with Edmonton but was dealt to the Carolina Hurricanes in July.
  7. No. 149 LW Graham McPhee. College winger was undersized and didn’t establish himself as an offensive option while at Boston College. Signed an AHL deal when he turned pro, but is now a free agent.
  8. No. 153 RC Aapeli Rasanen. He had a similar early trajectory to McPhee, but last season in the Liiga he blossomed. I don’t think they’ll sign him. He’s an interesting player though. RHC, wins faceoff, scored well in the Liiga.
  9. No. 183 RHD Vincent Desharnais. As crazy as it sounds, I could see him signing an NHL contract. He is a substantial part of the Condors defence, Eric Rodgers estimated his 2020-21 icetime in Bakersfield at 17:45 (fourth on the team among regulars). It has happened before, recently Josh Currie and less recently Mark Arcobello have signed NHL deals after playing under an AHL contract.

50-MAN LIST (4 from 2016’s draft)

There are 42 names, we could see anywhere from one to four men from the 2016 draft play in the NHL this season. In order for the 2016 edition to be a success, I think two men would need to exceed 200 NHL games. Your mileage may vary.

POSSIBLE OPENING NIGHT ROSTER (20)

This 20-man roster sees Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Tyler Benson, Kyle Turris, Alex Stalock and William Lagesson starting in the minors. It allows Edmonton to start the season with Oscar Klefbom on the roster, with a little over $500,000 to spare. The team need only begin the season this way, then would be free to place Klefbom on injured reserve and recall four men (likely Bouchard, McLeod, Lagesson and Benson).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we have a pile of great sports stories to follow. At 10:20, Russell S. Baxter from Fansided and several other NFL sites will get us ready for the NFL season with the latest from across the league. We’ll also have a Blue Jays guest, Toronto’s baseball team is moving up the standings. We’ll also talk about the Oilers and value contracts, plus the 2016 draft and how to rate it after five years. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Bank Shot

When is your top 20 prospects coming Lowetide?

Bank Shot

Apparently the Oilers are in on a third pairing D-man. That is good news as there is currently a lack of experience there. It’s always good to have 2-3 guys that you can count on for replacement level play. It’s not pretty but you can’t always get that from rookies.

Harpers Hair

comment image
Byron Bader
@ByronMBader

Vladimir Tkachev, undrafted Russian FA signed by the Kings, has a pretty good shot of making the NHL and could be even more! Of course the Kings are the ones that sign this guy!

Harpers Hair

Byron Bader
@ByronMBader
·
22m

Replying to @ByronMBader
Tkachev may be a bit of a late bloomer. He had good results early in the QMJHL in his first eligible DY and then fell back for a few years. But from the moment he hit the KHL in 2017 (his D+3) he’s been putting up a 60+ equivalency every season except one. That’s something!

jp

But from the moment he hit the KHL in 2017 (his D+3) he’s been putting up a 60+ equivalency every season except one.

I wonder what he means by equivalency.

Harpers Hair

Ryan Rishaug

@TSNRyanRishaug
·
3h

My sense is the Oilers will land a 3rd pairing Dman in the coming days. Koekkoek and Benn would likely be at the top of their list to fill that role for the money they have to spend. Koekkoek played well last season through stretches, while Benn is tight with Barrie. We’ll see.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

If that comes to fruition then it seems a foregone conclusion that Holland will be using off-season LTIR.

Sigh.

Harpers Hair

I don’t think he has much of a choice.

Last edited 2 months ago by Harpers Hair
OriginalPouzar

Yes, he does, 20-player rosters under the cap (including Kailer at $1.5M) have been posted.

If he grinds Kailer down lower it makes it easier.

Harpers Hair

Yes…grinding a top 6 forward to the last penny is always a winning strategy.

OriginalPouzar

So now he’s a top 6 forward….. its tough to keep up when it all keeps changing.

jp

So now he’s a top 6 forward

This is pretty funny actually.

🤷

OriginalPouzar

I would think either one of those guys would be less than $1M and would replace Lagesson on the roster so not much of a difference on the cap.

Don’t see how that leads to off-season LTIR.

I don’t want to see either of those replacement level guys signed though – for me, to the extent the team blows through Russell and Lagesson, I would think there should be some clear air for Samorukov and not have him blocked by a guy like Koekkoek who we know Coach T. would default to.

Harpers Hair

What you want to see means jack shit.

The Oilers need an experienced #7D.

DevilsLettuce

What you have to say about anything means jack shit tbh.

Canucks need their stars to take discounts to sign Tucker Poolman’s.

Kris Russell is an experienced 7D, but hey I’m sure in your world Kris Russell is a rookie or some shit.

jp

If that comes to fruition then it seems a foregone conclusion that Holland will be using off-season LTIR.

Sigh.

Totally disagree.

One of the goalies and 2-3 of the 13/14F and 7D will need to be exposed to waivers, but it’s entirely possible to get compliant for day 1, even adding a contract up to $1.5M.

And as OP said, Benn or Koekkoek would only be a few hundred thousand over whoever they’re replacing.

jm363561

The Hair Piece 4: The Finale – Let The Sunshine In

So How Do We Solve a Problem Like a Bad Hair? There seems to be two options:

Option 1 – Wash That Man Right Outta Our Hair
Posters can only control one thing – how they interact with H. A menu of possible interactions is shown below:

Abuse – this has achieved nothing; demeans the poster; and demeans the blog. Just say No.

Ignore – Always the preferred option. Interacting with H will always allow him to control the agenda to some degree. Just Don’t Do It (unless you really have to).

Patronise – “Markstrom is the single best move in the Pacific division this offseason. He’s the goods.” Really excellent post H. That 90.4% SV is just great. “If Nuge is still around he’ll be making more than $7 million.” Well done man. Great prediction. 

Ridicule – a brilliant recent post from Leadfarmer would be the gold standard here.

2020 Canucks offseason – resign Virtanen, sign Holtby, trade a 3rd for Schmidt.”
“2021 offseason – buyout Virtanen, buyout Holtby, trade Schmidt.” This generated a good deal of mirth.” 

Cold Hard Facts (not opinions) – OP, Redbird62, Genjutsu all contributing to demolish the load of bollocks H had posted on the Makar and Heiskenan contracts would be a shining example.

Option 2 – San Francisco

By far the more preferable option. H cashes in his Apple stock and transplants to San Francisco where he would meet gentle people with flowers in their hair ….. and if he did, he would be a truly great poster.

THE END 

Bill

Aces.

VanIsleOil

Option 1 – Wash That Man Right Outta Our Hair

Hairlarious!!! Now I have the jingle stuck in my head: https://youtu.be/w8_jESfPLBc

Last edited 2 months ago by VanIsleOil
jm363561

The Hair Piece 3 (Notes From a Quarantine Hotel) – Harpers Bizarre

H comes to an Oilers blog yet is relentlessly anti Oil – “Is this a good time to point out the Oilers are 1 and 8 in their last nine play off series?” There is neither hide nor hair of a positive Oiler comment.

Having spewed ill humor across the site cheerful anecdotes and personal insights are then posted.

“I bet 6 units on tonight’s games. Hit on all 6 .. oh my!”

“It would be remiss not to wish Betty White a Happy 99th Birthday. The person in the world I would most like to share a cocktail with.”

“What do you think of Altered Carbon? My oldest son was an assistant DP on that show which is shot in Vancouver.”

 + other posts on fish caught; recipes; whiskey; his garden; old friends passing away; investments in Apple shares.

This is just Bizarro World. It makes your hair curl. 

Ice Sage

Thanks jm, I think every group needs a fool, like the stopped clock, sometimes they’re correct
I missed some of those oddities – I personally wouldn’t reveal a loved one’s assistant DP practices

Harpers Hair

Tony Esposito passes away at 79 after a bride battle with pancreatic cancer.

defmn

R.I.P.

Reja

One of my favourites growing up really classy individual. Where does the time go?

Harpers Hair

Always loved watching him play…a huge personality.

maxwellmischief

Woodcroft seemed to praise Niemelainen at the end of last year, and I think he has a real shot at competing for minutes with Samorukov, and Lagesson for 7D (as it stands now).

Also, I know you know this Lowetide, and it’s just technical, but we can count Skinner as signed, and no longer RFA!

OriginalPouzar

Woodcroft praises ever one of his players.

From watching, I don’t think Niemelainen is ready but lots can happen in an off-season.

maxwellmischief

That’s probably why players like playing for him and grow!
I’ve heard through the grapevine Samorukov is in Edmonton training and looking like a “beast” .. probably had the edge on a spot, even before a strong summer.

OriginalPouzar

I’ve seen video evidence of Sammy skating in Edmonton.

maxwellmischief

Looking beastly?

OriginalPouzar

I am unable to confirm beastliness levels.

Reja

I hope he’s not made of glass like that last dreamy guy we had. Never could figure why that was such a saying. In my day we used to call the individual in question built like a brick shit house.

ArmchairGM

I’d like to see Holland sign the elder Svechnikov, I think he’s got untapped potential still. If nothing else, he’d provide the AHL team with a bunch of skill.

Reja

Since we added Foegele Perlini Hyman Holliday who are all damn good on the forecheck. With Yamo,Jesse,Leon,Connor, Nuge and Kassian if he pulls his thumb out of his ass changes our scheme 5 on 5 tremendously. That’s why Holland loaded up on creative D men. If you have a threat of a D sneaking in it opens up so many other lanes in the high risk zones. We are going to see the highest scoring D in the League as a unit. Book it.

John Chambers

The Petry-Schultz years weren’t bad, but I remember remarking over the past few years how offensively impotent the Oilers have been from the back-end.
Larsson – Russell – Benning have all been black holes offensively. Collectively they formed the entire right-side of a defense that moved the puck very poorly.

jp
Ryan

Benning was playing 3rd pairing minutes.

He had sky high “on the fly” shifts/60, so as a third pairing dman he was put on the ice often when the puck was already moving in the right direction.

I know you know this. 🙂

jp

I know you know this. 🙂

I do.

But those types of minutes are usually played with stone hand forwards and associated with suppressed GF + GA, no?

Reja

If Bear would of shown a little Thunderbird creativity on offence I think he would still be here. There was so many pucks that died on his stick that it was frustrating to watch.

Tye

Who’s Holliday?

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Billie

Last edited 2 months ago by Decidedly Skeptical Fan
Redbird62

Doc?? Oh wait, that’s Nurse’s nickname.

JimmyV1965

Cool nickname. Must be the only guy in the league with a nickname not totally lame.

MushedPeas

Give it minute and it’ll be Docsy.’ 😉

Elgin R

Going to play me some old jazz this afternoon.

OriginalPouzar

Speaking or Rasanen, has his hockey path ever crossed with MacKenzie Blackwood? I don’t think he goalied at Boston College or played in Europe.

I ask because I Rasanen recently posted a picture of 3 NJ Devils on the ice – like a random picture (with Blackwood as the focus) – no context.

I think he may be signing with the Devils when he hits free agency in a few days…..

jp

Devil Kukkonen is about the same age as Rasanen and they played together on multiple Finnish national teams. That could be the connection.

Whaler Slamamoto

Weeks ago I would look at the left wing depth chart and throw up in my mouth a little. Funny how it’s the right wing that has me reaching for the Tums now!

defmn

Don’t forget that Hyman is a right shot. 😉

OriginalPouzar

a right shot and a natural right winger (who, from accounts, is better on the right side).

defmn

Speculating on line combinations is a fun activity in the off season but I hope we get to see a lot of different combinations during TC this fall.

This forward group has more ways to fit together than any I have seen in a long time.

OriginalPouzar

defmn

 Reply to OriginalPouzar

 August 10, 2021 3:06 pm

Speculating on line combinations is a fun activity in the off season but I hope we get to see a lot of different combinations during TC this fall.

This forward group has more ways to fit together than any I have seen in a long time.

I don’t disagree but there is a fine line between trying various different combos and trying to give players time to get used to each other and develop chemistry.

There isn’t enough time to do both, really.

defmn

I don’t disagree but there is a fine line between trying various different combos and trying to give players time to get used to each other and develop chemistry.

There isn’t enough time to do both, really.

Gee, OP I didn’t know that.

Thanks for sharing your deep understanding of TC tactics with those of us who might not have had the same opportunity to acquire that kind of information over the course of watching NHL hockey for over 65 years.

Last edited 2 months ago by defmn
OriginalPouzar

My goodness – unreasonably condescending and confrontational – not sure why.

I’m not sure Tip will have the time to try all sort of different line combos in the exhibition season as nice as that would be.

defmn

If you don’t want condescending maybe you should adjust your own posting style. There is only one poster here who gets more blowback than you and that is HH.

Might be a clue in there for you.

OriginalPouzar

OK – you have a nice night – maybe we’ll talk hockey, even training camp strategies, tomorrow.

defmn

Doubtful. I have asked you on a number of occasions to not respond to my posts because

1 you can’t be bothered to read them carefully enough to grasp what I posted

2 you respond to things others in the thread posted while quoting me because you are too lazy to do it proplerly

3 you respond to innocuous comments with condescending retorts that explain in great detail what everybody who posts here knew since they were 12 years old.

Try to do better.

OriginalPouzar

That’s disappointing that you don’t feel able to converse due to a personal issue.

With respect, I will continue to read the comments and respond to those that interest me and/or for which I have something I’d like to reply with.

Feel free to simply not respond back if you have such an issue with me – that is your choice.

defmn

There is that little condescending assholey type remark that makes you the subject of so much blowback from so many different posters here.

Never accept that it is you who has the personal issue.

Never think that your lack of respect for other’s understanding of the game is superior to yours – even though your posting history pretty much confirms that your understanding of hockey per se is not particularly strong once you veer from mimicking that which you have heard or read elsewhere.

Try looking in a mirror OP. You might find that the reason you annoy so many people here has more to do with how you conduct yourself than anything else.

You even manage to annoy Lowetide and that man has the patience of a saint.

theWaxCollector

I’d like to see Hyman start the season on RW. Something like:

Foegele-McDavid-Hyman
Nuge-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
Archibald-Ryan-Yamamoto
Benson-McLeod-Kassian

I think top two lines could dominate, create 1-2 chances a shift, and the third line could be successful if they forecheck well and stay out of their zone. Holloway replaces Archibald next year and Bourgault replaces Ryan the year after that.

DieHard

I’d put Jesse on the third line with Foegele and Ryan/McLeod. Make him earn his next contract from there.

ArmchairGM

IIRC Foegele played on the right side 77% of the time this past season. Tippett has TONS of flexibility with this roster.

John Chambers

I work with a longtime friend of Cody Ceci’s from Ottawa.

Ceci was a good puck-mover in Junior but when he joined the Sens at age 19 they gave him the role of ‘shutdown’ defender, largely because RD Karlsson wanted all the OZ starts. So Ceci was thrown in the deep end with the grinders against the toughs while Ottawa management catered to their prima donna.

His friend said that Pittsburgh was his first opportunity to play a two-way game, and having already honed his defensive game, Ceci’s game flourished.

I think we have a really great player who is just now playing at his peak.

defmn

Thanks for passing that along. A good reminder that the Oilers aren’t the only team in the league to ruin a young player’s career through incompetence or desperation.

Reja

The man has offensive talent I really thought the Sens scored in. It’s nice to hear the reason why some players with the same talents get treated differently in Organizations. If Tippett gives the green light to Ceci and Bouchard like he has for Barrie and Nurse look out NHL.

John Chambers

When talent levels are effectively equal, you live-and-die by the coach’s decision how you’re used within his system, no doubt.

In any event, I think we lose a little bit of ‘mean’ going from Larsson to Ceci, but we also gain some passing and quickness. Holland made a new plan and it could be a good one.

defmn

Puck moving was Detroit’s calling card during their heyday.

I still remember Holland pointing out to a reporter who was questioning his team’s skating speed that no matter how fast a guy could skate he couldn’t skate as fast as a puck could be moved and that was really the what it meant to have team speed.

Last edited 2 months ago by defmn
ArmchairGM

Very true. However, its worth noting that all the players Holland has added this summer are above average skaters, as are all of his recent high draft picks. Broberg and Holloway are probably top 5 in their entire drafts for speed.

defmn

Skating is important, of course, but the ability to think and make the right move with speed is the factor of most importance imo.

Jethro Tull

The aim is to disrupt puck movement; to deny the opposition time and space to either make or receive an accurate pass. Either way, you need good, fast skaters.

Harpers Hair

There are a couple of red flags in Ceci’s two most recent seasons in Toronto and Pittsburgh.

His PDO in both those seasons was well above 100 buoyed by SV% of .927 and .929

However it also appears he does pretty well on an offensively minded team like the Oilers.

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=ev&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=p&playerid=8476879

Reja

Does Ceci cover his bet or even exceed it wise one?

Harpers Hair

I think a lot of that depends on who he is paired with.

If we assume Nurse-Barrie remains a pair, that likely means he is paired with Keith at least to start and that raises the question of how much Keith has left in the tank defensively.

Ceci’s underlying numbers, as posted above, weren’t actually all that great when you look at how much they were affected by unsustainable save percentages.

Given the potential weakness in goal the Oilers could experience it may not turn out well.

However, he seems to be a decent bet as a second pairing D if everything breaks right.

Redbird62

Selection of defenseman who had higher PDO’s than Ceci the last 2 seasons: Graves, Brodie, Fox, Makar, Sergachev, Ellis, Pulock, and Hedman (and Hamilton was basically tied with Ceci) so they were apparently even luckier. Red Flags one and all!

jp

Ceci has also had much better xGF% numbers than SF% the past 2 seasons (more in line with his GF%).

OriginalPouzar

Ceci had more 5 on 5 points last season than:

Giordano
Pieterangelo
Jones
Josi
Hedman
Ellis
Graves
Werenski
Etc.

ArmchairGM

Cody Ceci. This blogs latest meme.

Harpers Hair

We can just call him Rider.

Harpers Hair

Ceci had 17.

Giordano had 18.

I won’t bother with the rest of your list.

OriginalPouzar

I wouldn’t bother reading it either if you just going to lie and make stuff up:

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

Would you like me to explain the difference between 5 on 5 and even strength?

Last edited 2 months ago by OriginalPouzar
jp

I did not know that. Impressive.

Harpers Hair

Points last 2 seasons:

Ceci 25
______________

Hedman 100
Makar 94
Hamilton 82
Sergachev 64
Ellis 56
Pulock 52
Fox (1 season) 47
Brodie 33
Graves 30

It’s pretty clear the players you named were, for the most part, major contributors to sparkling on ice numbers.

On the other hand, despite playing on two offensive juggernauts, Ceci didn’t contribute much to offensive success but instead was buoyed by very high on ice save and shooting percentages in both years.

Toronto 2020:

CF 50.22%
FF 49.04%
SF 48.46%
GF 49.30
HDCF 52.33%
HDGF 47.62%
ONSV% 926

Pittsburgh 2021

CF 48.31%
FF 48.38%
SF 48.39%
GF 59.42%
HDCF 47.62%
HDGF 64.29%
ONSV% .930

Worth noting that last year in Pittsburgh his On Ice Shooting Percentage jumped from a normal of around 7-8% all the way up to 10.49%.

I guess you could try to make the argument ( I would like to see it) that Ceci is so good that he can dictate the save percentage of goaltenders he plays in front of but his underlying numbers would seem to indicate that he has had two seasons of very good luck.

As a point of reference for the weakest player on your list and a likely second pairing D in New Jersey, here are the underlying numbers for Ryan Graves last season in Colorado.

CF 57.31%
FF 56.44%
SF 56.49%
GF 57.58%
HDCF 55.47%
HDGF 56.76%
ONSV% .919

Ceci and Graves have very similar cap hits but it’s pretty clear which player brings more value.

Elgin R

But is Ceci better than Brogan Rafferty? That is the question that will haunt broadcasters all season.

Harpers Hair

Is anyone?

I don’t think so.

OriginalPouzar

That’s nice – Codi Ceci still had more 5 on 5 points than all the players I listed – he won’t play the PP and get gravy points but he will help the offence at evens and PK.

Harpers Hair

No he didn’t..Giordano had more.
Josi also had 18.

OriginalPouzar

Why do you keep making up stuff? Remember your lies about Hieskenan’s trade protection?

Both Josi and Giordano had less 5 on 5 points than Ceci:

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

OriginalPouzar

I will ask again if you’d like me to explain the difference to you between 5 on 5 and even strength.

dessert1111

This isn’t worth much anymore (unless you’re Oilers management apparently) but I saw Ceci play a few times in junior after he was drafted by Ottawa. I knew people who knew him kind of thing. What I remember was a “high floor, low ceiling” player who seemed like a near lock for decent second pair minutes or a really good 3rd pair guy. I think if he’s that for the next four years the contract is fine, though admittedly I am worried about the combination of term and cap hit.

Around his draft year, I always understood him to be an offensive more than defensive player, but really he was a “two-way” player in that he could move the puck but also was a solid enough defender. I remember hearing decent things about his skating and shot but wasn’t overly impressed when seeing him live (though I don’t claim to be good at projecting future skill).

What I’m trying to say is that although he may be seen as a defensive PK guy now, I don’t think that’s how he was viewed before, so if he’s improved in those areas and maintains some puck moving and offensive ability, he at least has the resume of someone that could succeed on the second pair. I remember liking the pick for Ottawa as a mid first round pick.

Last edited 2 months ago by dessert1111
OriginalPouzar

Thank you for this info and good post.

With that said, at some point, production and type of player in junior starts to mean very little – I mean, Kris Russell was an offensive dynamo in junior was he not?

With that said, Ceci showed very good 5 on 5 production last year – produced more than the likes of Werenski, Josi, Giordano and many other notables (even if HH isn’t able to accept it).

He’s entering “prime d-man years” – it take time for many – he may be one.

Harpers Hair

You keep propagating this nonsense.

Ceci had 17 EVP last season…good for 42nd in the league.

While that’s not bad, it’s within a point or two of average.

If the Oilers goaltending is below average, which is entirely possible, his underlying possession numbers show very clearly he will be underwater.

OriginalPouzar

I provided his 5 on 5 points from last season. I don’t care about a delta between 5 on 5 and ES points – they aren’t the same and the likes of Barrie and Nurse will be the primary 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 d-men.

At 5 on 5, the games most volumous games state, he had more points than many “star” d-men.

You tried to call my information fake by posting different stats – you were wrong and continue to try and propagate a narrative.

Last year, at 5 on 5, Ceci was a material point producer in the NHL

Harpers Hair

Last year, Ceci scored 17 points at even strength.

Delta that however you want but Quinn Hughes who had a dreadful season on a team ravaged by Covid, scored 22.

OriginalPouzar

FIVE ON FIVE!!!!!!!!!!!

Holy crap, now that I look, Hughes had one more 5 on 5 point than Ceci – and he’s a one-dimensional offensive player who is quantifiably bad defensively and doesn’t PK.

Last edited 2 months ago by OriginalPouzar
Harpers Hair

And still outperformed Ceci.

What a travesty.

OriginalPouzar

No at 5 on 5:

Ceci:

– 17 points=
– 59% goal differential (41GF/28GA)
Most common linemates: Mike Matheson, Zach Aston-Reese, Jared McCann, Teddy Bleuger

Hughes:

– 18 points
– 41% goal differential (38GF/54GA)
Most common linemates: Hamonic, Boeser, Miller, Hoglander, Horvat

My goodness.

Bank Shot

You’re wrong. Admit it and move on donkey.

MushedPeas

This post is music.

London Jon

Not being able to hold your hands up and admit you’re wrong when you’re wrong is one of the worlds ugliest traits

OriginalPouzar

This 20-man roster sees Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Tyler Benson, Kyle Turris, Alex Stalock and William Lagesson starting in the minors. 

Yup, that is the path to maximizing the LTIR reserves and the cap space.

The question is, if Benson has a good camp and “makes the team”, will they risk losing him on waivers in the name of cap structuring? Perhaps Perlini is the man waived in that situation (although same would apply if he shows well and makes the team).

JOFA

Answer: who cares?

OriginalPouzar

I care and many others do.

You don’t think Benson can be an NHL player, many others do and care.

Elgin R

I think people are in for a big awakening at training camp this fall if Benson; has trained hard, worked on his skating and gets an honest look from Tippet. I am pretty confident that Benson has accomplished what he can control, but wrt Tippet – no idea.

pts2pndr

Given the team is losing an asset that could be turned into a draft choice anyone that is an Oiler fan should care!

Reja

Benson days are numbered they never gave him a honest chance. He’ll catch on with another team and it’s probably the best thing for him.

Last edited 2 months ago by Reja
JOFA

Agreed. Maybe Ambri-Piotta? Switch with Perlini.

TheGreatBigMac

I would think they just send Koskinen down, if I understand correctly he has a NTC but not a NMV so he can be sent down.

Reja

Yes I agree as long as Smith doesn’t blow his groin in training camp.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, he can be waived and assigned (he’ll clear, obviously) but, in that case, they would keep Stalock on the active roster (have to have two goalies) and it only saves a few hundred grand – not enough to get under the cap.

Kert

Why not Shore instead of Benson (or Perlini)? The two year deal means he is probably least likely to be claimed.

OriginalPouzar

Elgin R

 Reply to OriginalPouzar

 August 10, 2021 3:28 pm

I think people are in for a big awakening at training camp this fall if Benson; has trained hard, worked on his skating and gets an honest look from Tippet. I am pretty confident that Benson has accomplished what he can control, but wrt Tippet – no idea.

Don’t disagree – that key is, as you said, an honest look from Tip. This past camp, he didn’t get a single line rush with an established NHL player (nor do I think he did at the previous camp).

With that said, going in to the one-week camp with no exhibition games, there was zero chance to compete – the likes of Kahun and Ennis were signed as established NHL players and the likes of Benson were earmarked for the AHL for the year prior to the season started.

Hopefully there is a real chance to compete given this October.

OriginalPouzar

Could be Shore as well, although i suspect he’s on the roster unless beat out by both Benson and Perlini.

OriginalPouzar

I know that listening to a player talk should have all but zero effect on his potential to make a team but listening to Perlini talk to Dusty this morning, I can’t help but cheer for the guy.

It would be fantastic if he was able to find the form from his Arizona days with the added maturity of being older, etc.

He’ll had a chance to compete at camp – Benson/Shore/Holloway/Perlini – that’s the cluster.

Last edited 2 months ago by OriginalPouzar
Reja

I believe he’s ahead of Benson and it’s his job to lose.

DieHard

Tip has lots of forward options. If Perlini shows his high draft pic value. Maybe he rides with Connor and Hyman on the right. That could put Jesse on the third line with Foegele and McLeod/Ryan. Guy can dream.

defmn

6 is nice number.

OriginalPouzar

Watched alot of Condors’ last season and, with respect to a few of the 2016 picks:

1) Niemelainen was indeed a revelation – the intel that I had read/hear from Europe (including from the guys at the Cult that watched him play the prior year) was that he handled the puck like a grenade, couldn’t move it at all. I didn’t see that at all as a Condor and was quite impressed early with his ability to pass the puck up the ice. He put himself back in the conversation this past season but I still think he’s a distant bell to play NHL games as an Oiler – with Lagesson, Samorukov and Broberg ahead of him on the left side, there is little clean air for him

2) Deharnais – the wingspan of a Condor – a nice season as Condor as the man can defend – he’s just so big that he closes on the opposition player quickly. At the same time, he does handle the puck like a grenade. I think his ceiling at this point is possibly earning an NHL 2-way contract but I don’t imagine him playing an NHL game, ever.

Coiler

The Kaprisov situation down in Minnesota is getting nice and juicy. The kid has serious balls if he’s asking for $10 million a year based on 50 games in the NHL and a whole lot of nuthin’ in the playoffs.

I wouldn’t blink if I were Guerin, call his bluff.

I’m sure there are a lot smarter people in this blog who might know but I’m curious: If Kaprisov does bolt for the KHL, does Minny hold his rights for a certain period of time like a year, two, five? Thx in advance.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, they will hold his rights for a number of years – the Oilers still have had Slepyshev’s rights while he’s been playing in the KHL.

They basically have his rights until he’s “UFA age” which is partially determined by his age when he signed.

OriginalPouzar

Pssst, Al, do you think Holland knows about the impending deadline for Rasanen’s rights or if he’s unaware like Blumel?????

Ha ha – just kidding (although I still don’t think he was no aware of the Blumel deadline and this was as much the player’s decision, not to sign, as the team’s).

dessert1111

If they were unaware of Blumel’s situation, I would imagine at the very least, under this regime going forward, they will be extra vigilant and never make that mistake again.

OriginalPouzar

Ya, it was mostly a facetious comment given LT and I have vastly differing thoughts on what went down (and I don’t think Holland wasn’t in the know given everything that we know).

Harpers Hair

Top 10 value contracts in the league (and 5 honorable mentions).

https://theathletic.com/2748420/2021/08/10/the-nhls-10-best-contracts-2021-edition/?source=user_shared_article

Spoiler alert: 2 Oilers in the top 10.

Also of note, 5 of the 15 are from the Colorado Avalanche and modern defensemen are prominent.

defmn

What do you define as ‘modern defensemen’ just out of curiosity?

Are you thinking smaller, puck moving, offensively minded or something different?

Harpers Hair

Not necessarily smaller but not exclusive of them either.

Puck moving, puck possession wizards who are major offensive contributors who spend very little time defending in their own zone because the puck is rarely there.

Cale Makar is the absolute template but others like Sam Girard and Adam Fox are close.

Interesting that many are NCAA products especially especially from Harvard and Michigan.

defmn

Thanks. Pretty much what I thought other than that for the most part they do seem to come in small packages. Add size and you get into discussions about top 10-15 dmen in the league.

The reason I focus on size is because I think that really only shows upas a negative once you get to the playoffs.

During the regular season certain players definitely like to target the smaller guys up against the end boards but it really is hit and miss. There isn’t the upside that there is in a playoff round because these guys are all really tough and in good shape so even if you pound them 3 or 4 times all you really do is make them hurt for the next team coming to town.

The benefit to your own team is minimal or at least unpredictable whereas over a 4 to 7 game series you can really knock a smaller guy off his game if every winger coming down on the fore check finishes his hit with gusto.

To me that physical play plus coaching adjustments are the biggest differences between the regular season and the playoffs.

An exceptional talent like Makar can probably outplay that strategy but, of course as we both know, the exception doesn’t make the rule so I wonder how long it will take before the bloom is off the rose on 5′ 9″ 175 lb dmen.

Harpers Hair

Not sure which 5’9” guy you’re referring to but it’s also important to remember that most of these guys are very young and will get even better as they age.

Also important IMO who these guys are paired with sine you need a more stay stay at home type to allow them to be most effective.

defmn

I disagree. Not all players improve as they age.

Some fall by the way side as their tendencies and/or shortcomings become amenable to exploitation.

Ice Sage

You, sir, have played the game! And Dom’s model doesn’t factor in playoffs.
Q Hughes, Bear, Girard – all have struggled when the playoff rubber hit the road. And a giraffe like Logan Stanley thrives.
Now, size and puck-possession… that’s the ticket!

Harpers Hair

Of note, Shea Theodore who is among the top 10 is 6’2” 200.

Harpers Hair
Side

Why is it of note how many Colorado has in the top 15?

Harpers Hair

Because it shows graphically how smart their GM is compared to his peers.

Important to remember that the Oilers GM played no part in acquiring or signing the 2 players they have on the list.

Side

Strange. I thought the purpose of GMing a team was to win a cup, not to be the smartest.

I bet Tampa Bay, Montreal and Vegas sure wish they were as smart as Joe…

Harpers Hair

Did I miss Montreal and Vegas winning a cup?

Do you think Joe could win one if he gamed LTIR and went into the playoffs with a $90 million cap hit?

Side

It’s important to remember that Vegas beat Colorado and Montreal beat Vegas.

Well you were pretty confident that Colorado would win the cup with 4 Norris D, a Vezina candidate goalie and Mackinnon, Landeskog, etc. Shouldn’t that be enough to win a cup regardless of what the cap is?

But on the topic of cups, how many has Joe won in his tenure as GM?

Or is this graph you are talking about supposed to be the ultimate prize for Joe?

Last edited 2 months ago by Side
Harpers Hair

So, you seem to be saying that having efficient contracts is not important nor a sign of a good GM?

Sounds about right.

Side

It’s so strange. I never said that or came to that conclusion.

Messier11

If he was smart enough to do that, then maybe.

Redbird62

It is funny how your lead-in statements to links to opinion pieces are written like they are 100% fact based. Dom’s model is no more valid on what is a value contract than the opinions of hundreds of other people. It is interesting and maybe entertaining, but no now way definitive. Of course you really don’t care as long as the mouth piece you site supports whatever narrative you are pushing. Hard to believe you were in the news media, then again maybe not.

Side

It’s always amusing to me when HH indicates he likes people who speak their minds and dislikes the “mob mentality” or “sheep”, yet, a good chunk of his posts are parroting other people and the rest of his posts are just appeals to authority.

He likes Parros as the Department of Safety Head because he is “smart” and once wrote a thesis in school.

He likes the Sedins as consultants because they are “smart“.

He prefers Joe Sakic over other GMs because Joe is “smart“.

HH is a sheep who dresses like a shepherd.

Last edited 2 months ago by Side
Harpers Hair

What part of Dom’s article do you disagree with or are you just shooting the messenger?

Just wait for tomorrow’s Worst 10 Contracts.

Redbird62

And you will introduce it like it’s the gospel, instead of properly citing it as here is Don’s opinion. Do you believe Don’s opinion is the one truth? You cite him like you do?

jp

Just wait for tomorrow’s Worst 10 Contracts.

Pretty good bet OEL is on there.

maudite

If it were me (I know it’s not and they have their reasons):

I waive kassian. I love his game when it’s on but his lack of PK ability is a large knock in top 9 utility winger area. There’s been enough runway that it’s pretty easily defended – if he gets knicked that cap space likely is more of an asset.

I can see the kraken feasting on waivers to bolster talent pool. The Benson types would be the perfect targets. If he can stick – win if he doesn’t back on waivers he goes.

Last edited 2 months ago by maudite
Harpers Hair

I’m not sure Seattle would have much interest.

Their expansion draft selections at forward featured a lot of bottom 6 players and what they lack is top 6 centres.

Should be interesting to see if they can use their remaining cap space and surplus D to swing a trade before the season starts.

maudite

The kraken have to for sure. Pretty certain they are looking to fish out picks. I think Francis must have po’d the GM gang with too high an asking price for pretty near everything as they seem to be running out of room on rosters to add non waiveable options for most part.

But anyway, if Francis manages to gets some surplus defense dealings sorted I’d be surprised if they didn’t pick up some waiver eligible forwards with potential upside greater than bottom 6.

I know because he isn’t a Canucks prospect Benson is obviously garbage but thankfully there are still people out there that don’t augment perspective solely based on team player is in system of.

I’ll bet the kid makes 200 games given his track record up to this point.

Last edited 2 months ago by maudite
Harpers Hair

Do you think Benson has top 6 potential?

defmn

On some teams he probably does. I doubt that the Oilers are one of those teams anymore.

maudite

He might find a home on a 3rd line with spot duty up roster someday.

I watched the string of games He played fairly closely (have a thing for dreaming we turn corner on 2nd round picks and get some middle of roster value out of it).

He didn’t look out of place. Can he translate top lime AHL success into middle of roster NHL type go?

Yes, I don’t think there is anything yet written in his book that says otherwise.

Let’s call him my brietbart Rhapsody- only I’m not going to claim he’ll be a future Norris candidate.

Kid hasn’t failed at any level, had some injury setbacks but nothing career devastating, stuck in an odd spot last year due up covid – went down solid season added some PK work to resume…doing whatever he can to keep in picture.

Do I think there is a chance he can carve a career? Yes

Last edited 2 months ago by maudite
OriginalPouzar

I think many on here would be amenable to waiving Kassian – his recent (season and a half) performance doesn’t come close to value for his cap hit.

At the same time, its clear management values this player, at his current cap hit – they protected him and I don’t imagine they waive him at the beginning of the season.

We are now in the “dog days of summer” where fantasy and optimism can run wild and I am on-board the “hope train” – hoping we see 2019 calendar year Kassian – a player that, while still with flaws (board battles, can’t PK) can help the team.

Elgin R

Until proven otherwise, again, I will always cheer for the Kassinator. If he plays like he can, and did in the past, Tippet and Gulutzan will have a good problem – too many top 6 players. Sounds a lot like Tampa last year.

Tarkus

Looks like the newest Oilers have some new digits:

https://www.nhl.com/oilers/roster

Foegele gets to wear Lennart Petrell’s 37.

Perlini has discovered the answer to Life, the Universe and Everything (i.e., 42).

Ceci gets #5 rather than the #10 that would make much more sense. Alas, #10 now belongs to D. Ryan.

As expected, Keith is #2 because he tries harder.

And it seems like Skinner has indeed been bestowed the recently vacated #74 by Supernintendo Chalmers.

Moonlight

Lee Fogolin is somewhere doing his best Rodney Dangerfield…. I get no respect lol

Reja

Foggy is still loved to this day by the day 1 fans

oilersjo

Fogolin and Lowe What a pair

Reja

If we’re ever going to win again I wished it would have been from the OBC are a Keith Gretzky even a Billy Guerin not a outsider like Holland. For Holland it’s only a job he has as much Oiler blood running through him as Billy Smith or Jim Peplinski does.

Elgin R

Who gives a s**t who the GM is. As long as the team wins a Stanley!

Reja

Ceci getting Cold Lake finest Doug Hicks old #5

JOFA

Poti😉

Tarkus

Aaaand since Hyman is denied the Moose’s #11, he gets Craig Simpson’s #18.

YYCOil

If Bouchard had gobbled up #2 last year – he would have a Rolex today.

Tye

Hyman apparently picked 18

Last edited 2 months ago by Tye
Randle McMurphy

This isn’t just the last chance for Rasanen; It’s the last or next to last chance for ALOT of Oilers prospects. We are entering that stage of the lifecylce of a hockey team where prospects and picks are going in one direction, its called “the other way”

Randle McMurphy

It’s a process that will separate the chaff from the wheat.

Randle McMurphy

We all look at this roster through different lenses, but one thing is for certain, the foundation has been laid.

Future progress will come from within, with the occasional tweak along the way.

Sometime soon, Sept, March, Summer, that elusive additional Goalie will be dropped into the roster mix and this ship will set sail. Bon Voyage. Enjoy the ride.

Randle McMurphy

… and don’t be afraid to bet a few units.

Last edited 2 months ago by Randle McMurphy
Randle McMurphy

Here the ship sailed out into the blue and sunny morn
Sweetest sight ever seen.

Ne’er looked back, never feared, never cried.

OriginalPouzar

That elusive goaltender may also come from within. There are 3 prospects all with legit chances to be NHL tenders. Sometimes star goalies come from out of nowhere and appear in their mid-20s – we just don’t know.

Tarkus

Not sure who dubbed the titular prospect “Stampede” Rasanen, but that’s an inspired nickname.

Moonlight

I was talking Oilers to my wife the other day and she remarked that I’m never more bullish on my Oilers than I am in the summer. I thought about that for a moment, she was right lol

MushedPeas

We hope for the best.

Randle McMurphy

We sometimes forget the most important Analytics data point.

The Oilers are Number One in all of our hearts.

dustrock

Absolutely. Here Comes the Sun. Then it’s Long November and by the time December is done, time to Paint It Black. Maybe this year will be better than the last.

innercitysmytty

I have had the exact same conversation with my wife every summer since McDavid was drafted.

Randle McMurphy

Well, at least you’re talking once a year. 🙂

LadiesloveSmid

I think they could be marginally better if goaltending holds up.

Randle McMurphy

They butter hold up.

#margarinelybutter

Last edited 2 months ago by Randle McMurphy
Moonlight

😂 😂 😂 😂 😂