Vertigo

The 2002 trade that saw the Oilers send Jochen Hecht to Buffalo for 2 second-rounders featured Darcy Regier looking like he was about to pass out with glee on the draft floor. Seriously. Oilers drafted Jeff Deslauriers and Jarret Stoll with the picks, but Hecht played in Buffalo for a decade.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

  • New Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto’s NHL comparables offer Oilers fans hope for the future
  • Lowetide: Top 20 prospect update: A lot of movement and some impressive graduations
  • Lowetide: Mavrik Bourque a quality option for the Oilers in the draft
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Inside the franchise-altering decision to pick Leon Draisaitl over Sam Bennett
  • Lowetide: Adam Larsson’s Oilers future uncertain as ‘sexy’ options emerge
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: One-on-one with Wayne Gretzky: On the time he visited Moscow during the Cold War
  • Jonathan Willis and Lowetide: Discount forward options the Oilers could pursue in free agency
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Oh my God, Edmonton’s picking first’: An oral history of the 2015 NHL draft lottery
  • Lowetide: Comparison of Oilers, Flames drafts 2010-19 closer than it should be
  • Lowetide: The most potent lines in Oilers history
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: On the time Dave Semenko fought Muhammad Ali
  • Lowetide: Why Jan Mysak could be a value pick for the Oilers at the 2020 Draft
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers overcame malice in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver to join the NHL
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Remembering Jacques Plante’s brief tenure with the Oilers at age 45
  • Lowetide: Oilers need to find (or get) real value in William Lagesson

ANDREAS ATHANASIOU PLAYER CARD

Ken Holland traded two second-round picks to Detroit for Athanasiou, and I imagine the idea behind the transaction was a long term solution on left wing. Something similar to Jochen Hecht in Buffalo.

Let’s have a look at his player card. A 1.77 per 60 scoring rate, that’s AA’s average over the last three seasons. In 2019-20, that would put him No. 140 among forwards with 500 or more five on five minutes. That’s second line production and puts Athanasiou right behind Ryan Nugent-Hopkins among Edmonton’s left wingers.

Folks, we don’t know what we don’t know. Athanasiou looked good in the first game, took a bit of an injury and moved down the depth chart. There’s no one reading this who can make the call on Athanasiou based on his 9-game Edmonton audition.

Ken Holland acquired him at the deadline as part of an attempt to shore up the scoring along the wings. Based on what he gave up, I expect he was also thinking there might be a career to come that warranted the investment. A Jochen Hecht in Buffalo career. We don’t know where this goes, but Holland would certainly know the player well. We wait.

Many of you took advantage of the 90-day free trial yesterday, so I wanted to remind everyone again that clicking on the story link takes you directly to the free trial. And sincere thanks to those who joined yesterday.

June 2010 Harvest Moon

During this time with no action, I’ll be reaching into the past for various items that you might find interesting. Today I give you my Harvest Moon take on the 2010 draft. One word changed, the rest unfiltered.

The Edmonton Oilers drafted Taylor Hall yesterday, signalling a brand new day for the team and its fans. They also gave us a clue as to how much they’ve soured on the NCAA, sending away Riley Nash while drafting a Minnesota State forward on his way to the WHL. The heart of the draft was long over before the Oilers spent any equity on NCAA or NCAA-bound players.

That’s cutting off a large portion of the world’s hockey pie. The Oilers have long been a team to careen in terms of player preference styles; one year they’re chasing down Coke Machines and two years later they’re after undersized speed demons. We know this, we’re used to it.

We also know that there are some good reasons to avoid taking players from certain regions. Russian players have the lure of the KHL, making that nation a less attractive talent pool. It doesn’t mean Edmonton must avoid the KHL prospects completely, but spending a high pick would seem to be folly. If the Oilers (and we don’t have enough evidence to suggest it is a trend) have decided to avoid the NCAA, USHL and other feeder leagues (until the bottom of the draft) then it is a concern for Oiler fans. Avoiding talented Russians is one thing, but the American talent pool is rich and getting richer. I’m hopeful the organization doesn’t talk themselves out of the region because of a few poor choices or poor management decisions.

I think the Edmonton Oilers today are a club with so many forwards that it is difficult to project anything. If we can agree to set aside 6 players (I’ve chosen Moreau, O’Sullivan, Jacques, Potulny, Nilsson, Deslauriers) the 23-man roster projection comes into view:

  • G: Khabibulin, Dubnyk
  • D: Whitney, Gilbert, Smid, Souray-replacement, 2 veteran depth D, Peckham*
  • C: Horcoff, Gagner, Fraser, Cogliano
  • L: Hall*, Penner, Ryan Jones, MPS*, Omark*
  • R: Hemsky, Brule, Pouliot, Eberle*, Stortini

Here’s a really quick look at the 2010 Oiler picks.

#1 overall LW Taylor Hall: Immediately the best prospect in the system, the Oilers have an outstanding young player ready for the fall. If he gets enough powerplay time and especially if the Oilers can find a way to send him out with good players against the soft parade, this guy could win the Calder. BPA at this spot, good value.

#31 overall C Tyler Pitlick: Big, physical center with skill. The Oilers have a few of them in the pipeline now but you can never have too many of this player type. I still think it was a great idea for the Oilers to have the night to re-set their draft order and this pick reflects the result. BPA at this spot, good value. Oilers have since stated they had him among their top 30 selections. They LOVE the fact he’s leaving the NCAA and heading to Medicine Hat.

#46 overall D Martin Marincin: Tall, lean 2-way defender with good speed and the ability to think on his feet. Needs to be more consistent, but that’s something we can say about pretty much every prospect taken today. ISS and speeds ranked him at 40, McKenzie at 71. I don’t know that he was BPA at this spot (it is harder to define as the draft gets deeper) but do believe he was a value pick at this slot. Oilers are very high on him, with Stu MacGregor hinting he may play in the AHL in ’10-’11. Tambellini loves his poise on the international stage and his mobility (for a man his size).

#48 overall LW Curtis Hamilton: A wide-bodied winger with solid skills (OK skater, good shot, has a nose for the net) he endured injury problems which cut back on scouts ability to “see him good.” He’s 6.02, 211, and Smarmy Boss has a nice description of him and his season in Hamilton’s draft post comments section. ISS60 and Bob McKenzie57, which makes him a slight reach pick. Tambellini likes his hockey sense and describes him as a good 2-way winger. Intelligent, solid player. MBS likes his size and strength and how well he competes along the boards. Smart player.

#61 overall C Ryan Martindale: Tall C with speed, Redline (at the top prospects game to scout this year’s talent) said: Until he rang a quick release snap shot off the crossbar in the third period, you could have told us he wasn’t dressed at all. ISS61, BM58 so it would seem to be a saw-off in terms of value. Tambellini says his inconsistency may come from growing into his body (6.02) and made it clear they were looking to increase size and C (and D) at this draft). MBS likes his talent but wants him to “be there” every night.

#91 overall D Jeremie Blain: Had a fine season in the QMJHL and has good size for a defender. Oilers have had success in the Q, but it has been awhile. He appears to have caught fire in the new year, based on this from HF: Blain continues to play a lot of minutes for the Titans, top four plus PP and PK. He currently has 3 goals and 27 assists in 49 games. He looks bigger and stronger than in earlier viewings. He battles and competes well. There is more upside here than first thought. I don’t think we can call this a value pick. Tambellini says he plays with an edge, Bill Dandy really liked him a lot and this was likely a scouts pick.

#121 overall G Tyler Bunz: Redline had him #178 overall but I’m fine with using a depth pick like this one. In fact, I think the Oilers should use one every year in this range. They only need to get lucky once a decade. His SP numbers are poor, but that Tiger team didn’t play much defense whenever I saw them. Freddie Chabot has worked with him through the Team Canada development camps and is high on him.

#162 overall D Brandon Davidson: ISS had him #74 and Redline had him #204. That’s a wide range, but Remmerde (a great fricking blog, buddy was our guide today folks) is a straight forward scout and says there are some things to like. Based on his words, I’m counting this as a value pick.

#166 overall L Drew Czerwonka: and the chocolate factory! Sorry. There’s not much to say about a pick like this one. There are no expectations, it was probably a pick for the area scout and if he turns out holy hell that’s a great pick. The only negative is that there are still some names on the board at this time who graded out better and that’s something this organization does at certain points in the draft: select for need. Having said that, it wasn’t like Slava Trukhno shot the moon.

181 overall F Kristians Pelss. Poster Buddhaa over at hf boards: Pelss played for the farm team of Riga Dinamo – the Riga Dinamo Junior which played in the Belarus Open League (+/- ECHL level). Was the youngest player on the team. Didn’t score much. Unless he’s drafted by CHL, he should play next year in the Rigan Dinamo junior team in MHL (the junior league for KHL). Pelss played in U18 and had three points in 6 games (2+1). Haven’t seen him much, but supposedly should have decent upside if he’s put in proper development program (e.g. CHL). Interesting story.

#202 overall L Kellen Jones: Undersized skill player who performed well for the Vernon Vipers. Has a twin brother and they’re both heading to the NCAA (Quinnipiac) this fall. His brother’s name is Conner, but I think we should call him “Chipper.” Like the Czerwonka pick above, they either “saw him good” or this is a hat tip to some regional scout or bird dog who has done good work in the past. There’s not a lot to recommend this player outside of solid numbers in a secondary league.

Overall impressions: A good, good draft. Hall clearly is going to be the story of this draft, but nice value in the second round (Pitlick, Marincin) and later (Davidson) tell us the Oilers set up their draft board well. I also like the Hamilton and Bunz selections, leaving only the Martindale pick as a question mark (they drafted for need) among the team’s most dear selections. I think MBS is an good scouting director and if he can find a way to push those “saw him good” picks back another round he’ll be even better.

Blain, Czerwonka, Pelss and Jones are probably scouts picks, payment for all those nights driving to little towns all over the world in search of the next Taylor Hall. These men are going to be under pressure to deliver more than an average number of NHLers to the show for the next several seasons and it looks like they’ve delivered this season. Report card day is around 2015 summer. See you then.

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88 Responses to "Vertigo"

  1. Rickety Cricket says:

    2010 was a solid draft. Injuries were a big factor for Davidson and Pitlick.

    I am happy Marincin has carved out a decent career. I always liked him.

    I could be misremembering, but I think Hamilton also suffered some pretty significant injuries.

    It cannot believe it has been almost a decade since the Oilers drafted Hall. Wild.

  2. Ben says:

    “Beware! he who proclaimeth the magnificence of bastards afore they reapeth a seventh harvest.”

    – Chaucer

  3. Lowetide says:

    Ben:
    “Beware! he who proclaimeth the magnificence of bastards afore they reapeth a seventh harvest.”

    – Chaucer

    Most of MacGregor’s first-round picks (Eberle, Hall, Nuge, Klefbom, Nurse, Draisaitl) hit in a big way, and guys like Klefbom and Eberle weren’t top-5 overall so credit there. I do think my line in this 2010 post still rings true. He went to ‘walkabout’ picks too early and it cost him.

  4. tileguy says:

    Thank you for the 90 days LT, free is good.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, I would agree that that AA acquisition was made with the hope that it would be acquisition to help the team in the immediate and medium term. Holland is a scout at heart, loves the draft and loves developing draft picks – combine that with a clear statement of wanting to ensure the team has the pieces to contend year after year after year, I don’t see him trading away back to back second round picks with a plan for the acquired assets.

    Part of me thinks that maybe Holland did “panic” in to making the trade a bit knowing that he all but needed to do something more material than Ennis/Green but, at the same time, he’s not a panic type of manager and he knows this asset, he knows it well.

    AA had a “uneven” 9 games with the Oilers – he did play well in his last game. I keep going back to the situation – he came from playing out the stretch on one of the worst teams of the era – the dog days of the season on a no-hope team. He was thrust right in to the middle of a playoff drive and in a primary position – he, all of a sudden, was asked to play with motivation, structure and responsibility – on the ice and to his teammates. I’d love to think that he’d strive and grab the opportunity but he didn’t.

    I can’t wait to see him “coached up” by Coach T. – an off-season knowing he’s an Oiler and a training camp learning from Coach T.

    The next time we see AA on the ice, it’ll be with a fresh start viewpoint from me.

  6. DeeJay says:

    Drew Czerwonka played his Junior hockey in Cranbrook, BC for the Kootenay ICE. As a Cranbrook resident I can attest that while Drew was not a spectaular player, he wrung every ounce of talent from the hockey skills he had. He was a member of the 2010/11 WHL Championship ICE squad – a hard working lunch pail crew who had no chance of winning, yet beat all comers with hard work and disciplined play. Should Drew have been drafted by the Oilers…..not a chance….yet I can only imagine the joy that moment brought to Drew and his family. It was the pinnacle of his hockey career, he never played at any level after Junior…..but what a great story he has to tell to his kids and beer league buddies…..just sayin’

  7. Lowetide says:

    DeeJay:
    Drew Czerwonka played his Junior hockey in Cranbrook, BC for the Kootenay ICE.As a Cranbrook resident I can attest that while Drew was not a spectaular player, he wrung every ounce of talent from the hockey skills he had.He was a member of the 2010/11 WHL Championship ICE squad – a hard working lunch pail crew who had no chance of winning, yet beat all comers with hard work and disciplined play.Should Drew have been drafted by the Oilers…..not a chance….yet I can only imagine the joy that moment brought to Drew and his family.It was the pinnacle of his hockey career, he never played at any level after Junior…..but what a great story he has to tell to his kids and beer league buddies…..just sayin’

    Iirc he had an injury that kept him from pursuing his career longer. I’m with you though, great thrill to be drafted by an NHL team.

  8. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    On AA, he was also injured pretty much immediately. I’m not sure he was fully recovered before that final game when he started looking better again.

    Another point, which I think you’ve alluded to in the past, it takes time for players to drop into a new team and learn new systems. It’s one thing coming in the summer and having a training camp to get up to speed. Dropping into a squad and immediately being expected to fire on all cylinders is kind of asking a much, even of today’s NHL players.

    I’m a Kilmarnock fan (soccer) and almost every year we have massive turnover in our playing staff due to money/small size of our club. Pretty much every year the first 6-8 weeks of the season are basically a write off as players get to know each other, then we play catch up on the rest of the league later in the year.

  9. defmn says:

    Ah, Curtis, you broke my heart. I was certain Hamilton was going to be a player. Based upon nothing but scouting reports, of course. I never saw him play more than a few minutes on video clips if I remember correctly. I just loved all the descriptions of the type of game he played.

    No idea if it was the injuries that derailed him or it just wasn’t to be but pretty sure his mother and I were the last ones holding on to hope.

  10. jp says:

    defmn:
    Ah, Curtis, you broke my heart. I was certain Hamilton was going to be a player. Based upon nothing but scouting reports, of course. I never saw him play more than a few minutes on video clips if I remember correctly. I just loved all the descriptions of the type of game he played.

    No idea if it was the injuries that derailed him or it just wasn’t to be but pretty sure his mother and I were the last ones holding on to hope.

    My main memory of seeing him play was at the World Jrs. I thought he was going to make it too in a MAP kind of way (well rounded game and could make the bigs in more than one role). But it didn’t happen like so many other of these prospects.

  11. jp says:

    That’s a great comparison for the Athanasiou trade LT. Plus you could argue AA’s 30 goals last year were better than anything Hecht ever did, though Jochen was also more of a 2 way player. Anyway, AA could well end up being a big part of this team, only time will tell.

    I posted this late last night in response to another poster and figured I’d post it again since the Athanasiou discussion is still relevant.

    ————————————————————————————————-

    The jury is still very much out on Athanasiou. It’s not at all clear how this will go and I agree it could turn out being a poor acquisition.

    But saying “They didn’t buy him on his low point. They bought him at his career norm.” is simply not a true statement.

    This season was the lowest games played, goals, points and +/- of his career. Check out his 5 on 5 goal differential vs Detroit’s (not including his Edm games this season)
    15-16 DET -8 AA 0
    16-17 DET -18 AA 0
    17-18 DET -18 AA -8
    18-19 DET -30 AA -5
    19-20 DET -76 AA -31

    He was nothing special before this year but he wasn’t a drag relative to team (and this year everything went to shit in Detroit). Before that he was -13 for a team that was -74. This is by far the worst season of his career.

    And we know he can score. 30 goals and 54 points last season is pretty impressive (tied for 39th and 79th in the NHL, respectively).

    Just one year you say? Over the past 3 seasons Athanasiou has averaged 67-19-19-38. With injuries included he scored goals like a borderline #4/5 forward and points like a borderline #5/6 forward. He’s very clearly scored like a top 6 forward, including this worst season of his career.

    I dunno. Athanasiou’s career norm is a pretty valuable player. I think we should give him a chance.

    ————————————————————————————————-

  12. Lowetide says:

    What I liked about Hamilton was the scouting reports that suggested he was a real two-way winger, like the Habs used to train, like Craig Ramsay. He was hurt a lot, before and after the draft, so we didn’t really see him as he might have been.

  13. dustrock says:

    That Brandon Davidson pick

  14. Lowetide says:

    jp:

    But you saying “They didnt buy him on his low point. They bought him at his career norm.” is simply not a true statement.

    I didn’t say that.

  15. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    I didn’t say that.

    Yes, sorry, it was a quote from someone else.

    I already edited out the “you” since i noticed it sounded like it was referring to you.

    I can edit further to make it clear.

  16. defmn says:

    Lowetide:
    What I liked about Hamilton was the scouting reports that suggested he was a real two-way winger, like the Habs used to train, like Craig Ramsay. He was hurt a lot, before and after the draft, so we didn’t really see him as he might have been.

    Yup. That was what sucked me in as well. The player type.

    Oh well, the injuries didn’t help and maybe the skill or drive failed him in the end but I think we all have a guy that we cheered for long after the lights turned off and everybody else went home.

    Curtis was that guy for me.

    Thanks for the wander down memory lane.

  17. Lowetide says:

    jp: Yes, sorry, it was a quote from someone else.

    I already edited out the “you” since i noticed it sounded like it was referring to you.

    I can edit further to make it clear.

    No worries, I just wanted to make sure no one thought I’d made the claim.

  18. defmn says:

    AA is going to be a big story for this team when it finally gets back on the ice. For better or worse.

    I like a GM that takes a swing from time to time so I loved the move. If it fails the team needs to pick up a second rounder sometime in the next couple of years. That is not all that difficult to imagine.

    If it works another large hole in the 12 man core is filled and the team is closer to ‘contender’ status.

    I see Hall’s name pop up fairly often these days but to me that is something that isn’t and shouldn’t even be on the table.

    Connor’s $12.5 mil contract came with an implied condition that he could drive the line by himself with less than 1st line skill wingers. That was the promise he made when he signed that contract. Believing otherwise, to me, is just willfully disregarding the realities of a hard cap league.

    So if AA is not the answer it will have to be a different player of similar provenance. If the cap remains relatively flat for the next couple of years it is going to be difficult enough to figure out Yamomoto’s 2nd contract let alone fishing in high end UFA waters.

  19. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Most of MacGregor’s first-round picks (Eberle, Hall, Nuge, Klefbom, Nurse, Draisaitl) hit in a big way, and guys like Klefbom and Eberle weren’t top-5 overall so credit there. I do think my line in this 2010 post still rings true. He went to ‘walkabout’ picks too early and it cost him.

    Any chance Eberle might be available at a massive discount after that Steve Austin era contract? $3 million and he’s a valuable addition lol

  20. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    hunter1909,

    Ebs is locked up until 23/24, at a $5.5M AAV. His NTC goes to a 16 team no trade list beginning next year. So unless Kenny can somehow grind on Lou to retain that’s not going to happen any time soon.

  21. jp says:

    defmn: I see Hall’s name pop up fairly often these days but to me that is something that isn’t and shouldn’t even be on the table.

    The only way this works is if Hall is actually willing to come to Edmonton at significantly less than market value. We can’t know if that’s true, or how much of a discount he’d take, until it happens (or more likely doesn’t happen). It’s fun to think about though (for some of us!).

    So when ($-wise) would a Hall contract start to make sense (and be feasible) for the Oilers? If he is willing to work for a moderate (but not extreme) discount, and wants to be an Oiler again, maybe $8M X 5 is plausible.

    The Oilers can’t really fit even that number into their pay structure, but what if someone else goes to make room? Nuge’s next contract is surely going to be at a similar number in range of $8M. Does Holland choose Hall over Nuge if the deals are comparable after Nuge’s final year? Hall is older, but only by 1.5 years. You could also move Nuge for assets if Hall were signed this summer.

    I don’t want to move Nuge but that scenario would be pretty tempting to me (of course acknowledging it’s very unlikely).

  22. Darth Tu says:

    jp,

    If the Cap is staying stable/going down I think the free agents this year aren’t going to get the pay days they were hoping for. Maybe a 1 year $6 mill deal to come to Edmonton, win the Cup and then he still gets a shot at a big pay day the year after. Completely improbable but it’s the only way Hall coming back works.

    We can’t afford him at whatever the current market rate is.

  23. JimmyV1965 says:

    Darth Tu:
    jp,

    If the Cap is staying stable/going down I think the free agents this year aren’t going to get the pay days they were hoping for.Maybe a 1 year $6 mill deal to come to Edmonton, win the Cup and then he still gets a shot at a big pay day the year after. Completely improbable but it’s the only way Hall coming back works.

    We can’t afford him at whatever the current market rate is.

    I agree. I think the only we get Hall is on a one year deal that he signs to boost his market price going forward. While this is quite unrealistic, if Hall is interested in a one year deal, the Oilers would be the best team to choose from. He’s basically guaranteed to play with McDavid or Drai. No other team has a better one-two punch at centre.

    The nice thing is that if there’s any winger in the league looking to sign for only one year, Edmonton would be the best landing spot for any of them.

  24. hunter1909 says:

    Darth Tu:
    jp,

    If the Cap is staying stable/going down I think the free agents this year aren’t going to get the pay days they were hoping for.Maybe a 1 year $6 mill deal to come to Edmonton, win the Cup and then he still gets a shot at a big pay day the year after. Completely improbable but it’s the only way Hall coming back works.

    We can’t afford him at whatever the current market rate is.

    True dat.

  25. Darth Tu says:

    JimmyV1965,

    hunter1909,

    Bonus of also not being tied into a 7 year big money deal for an aging (although still very good) winger.

  26. defmn says:

    jp: The only way this works is if Hall is actually willing to come to Edmonton at significantly less than market value. We can’t know if that’s true, or how much of a discount he’d take, until it happens (or more likely doesn’t happen). It’s fun to think about though (for some of us!).

    So when ($-wise) would a Hall contract start to make sense (and be feasible) for the Oilers? If he is willing to work for a moderate (but not extreme) discount, and wants to be an Oiler again, maybe $8M X 5 is plausible.

    The Oilers can’t really fit even that number into their pay structure, but what if someone else goes to make room? Nuge’s next contract is surely going to be at a similar number in range of $8M. Does Holland choose Hall over Nuge if the deals are comparable after Nuge’s final year? Hall is older, but only by 1.5 years. You could also move Nuge for assets if Hall were signed this summer.

    I don’t want to move Nuge but that scenario would be pretty tempting to me (of course acknowledging it’s very unlikely).

    Moving Nuge to sign Hall has an eerie ring to it. It reminds me of when they moved Hall to sign Lucic.

    Not a fan, myself. Age and injuries combined with contract term and dollars make this a non-starter for me.

    I am aware, however, that there is an almost cultish preoccupation with the idea of repatriating him to this team here on this site. 😉

  27. Cahoon says:

    You are truly a hockey historian, the well of hockey knowledge to draw on never dries up. Things like the comparison to the Hecht trade combined with your ability to bring us back to a certain time drawing on personal stories is what makes this site so great. It’s what draws all the great minds that have been in and out of the discussion here. Thanks for all that you do.

  28. slopitch says:

    Im the one stirring the pot here RE AA.

    I agree with LT that his 9 games is too small of a sample size. In terms of GF yes the Oilers bought low (25% GF eek) so perhaps I’ll take that argument as I was looking at DFF. He’s a player who for the last 3 years is getting outchanced most of the time. Heres his puckiq player cards. I still don’t see a player here.

    2019-20
    Comp TOI% CF% CF%RC DFF% DFF%RC GF%
    All 100.0 45.0 -0.89 44.8 0.09 26.9
    Elite 30.2 43.8 -1.59 45.7 3.06 23.8
    Middle 31.0 48.4 -0.56 45.2 -2.31 26.1
    Gritensity 38.8 43.4 -0.65 43.7 -0.74 30.4

    2018-19
    Comp TOI% CF% CF%RC DFF% DFF%RC GF%
    All 100.0 44.8 -2.90 44.7 -1.10 46.5
    Elite 34.0 46.1 -2.10 44.5 -3.50 50.0
    Middle 39.1 44.7 -3.90 45.8 -1.40 52.6
    Gritensity 26.9 43.2 -2.20 43.2 3.30 31.8

    2017-18
    Comp TOI% CF% CF%RC DFF% DFF%RC GF%
    All 100.0 49.2 0.90 50.4 0.40 45.5
    Elite 33.4 43.1 -3.30 44.5 -3.80 37.9
    Middle 35.7 52.6 4.10 54.4 5.10 57.1
    Gritensity 30.9 52.6 1.60 52.9 -0.70 40.0

    Im a fan, Im hoping Im wrong and that Holland has something I dont. The original premise is that I would use AA to get a better winger for 97. Its what Id do 🙂

  29. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Hall is not coming back here, and that’s not a bad thing. Next contract will never fit, and he really didn’t fit with 97’s style on the ice either. Hall and Connor both like having the puck on their stick coming through the neutral zone, so when they were on the ice together it was almost a waste of one of those guys’ ability to enter the offensive with speed.

    Nuge-Drai-Yammo were doing most of their damage with tenacious forecheck and puck battle dominance. Hall might add an element to that line, but I’m pretty content to try to keep those 3 together and resign Nuge (definitely at a lower cap hit than Hall).

    Long story short: Nothing to see here. They need to focus on finding 97 some capable wingers (Athanasiou might be part of that solution). Hall is not that guy.

  30. slopitch says:

    Sigh. Cant format those stats blobs nicely even with tag.

  31. jp says:

    defmn: I am aware, however, that there is an almost cultish preoccupation with the idea of repatriating him to this team here on this site. 😉

    Heh, that could be true.

    defmn: Moving Nuge to sign Hall has an eerie ring to it. It reminds me of when they moved Hall to sign Lucic.

    Those moves were only bad because Chiarelli picked the wrong forward to pay $6M AND got fleeced on the forward for Dman trade. I also still maintain that Lucic plummeted from a top 6 forward faster than anyone on earth could have predicted. Yes he was going to be overpaid during the 2nd half of that deal, but not in year 2.

    It’s almost impossible create a worse outcome for trading your $6M forward for a defenseman, and finding a replacement $6M forward.

    defmn: Not a fan, myself. Age and injuries combined with contract term and dollars make this a non-starter for me.

    That’s totally fair, not sure I like it either. I definitely don’t want to move Nuge, though how much he wants on his next contract would be a factor. Hall is 18 months older and definitely an injury risk. He’s also shown to be a considerably better player when healthy (4 PPG+ seasons compared to Nuge’s career high 0.94 this season).

    The only way I see this working is if Hall were willing to sign a comparable contract to whatever Nuge wants as an extension.

  32. jp says:

    Darth Tu,

    Agree we can’t afford Hall at market value.

  33. doritogrande says:

    #121 overall G Tyler Bunz: Redline had him #178 overall but I’m fine with using a depth pick like this one. In fact, I think the Oilers should use one every year in this range. They only need to get lucky once a decade.

    0-fer. Yeeesh. Goalies are voodoo.

  34. defmn says:

    jp:

    Those moves were only bad because Chiarelli picked the wrong forward to pay $6M AND got fleeced on the forward for Dman trade. I also still maintain that Lucic plummeted from a top 6 forward faster than anyone on earth could have predicted. Yes he was going to be overpaid during the 2nd half of that deal, but not in year 2.

    It’s almost impossible create a worse outcome for trading your $6M forward for a defenseman, and finding a replacement $6M forward.

    Agreed. Lucic fell off the cliff sooner than expected by me for sure.

    I thought we would get 3 years of reasonable value followed by a drop in the 4th and a ‘how the hell do we get out of this’ after that.

    Holland can’t afford to repeat that mistake with Hall.

  35. jp says:

    slopitch: He’s a player who for the last 3 years is getting outchanced most of the time.

    But if you look at his numbers relative to team you see he’s not a drag. DFF%RC shows he’s been basically even with his team each year. GF% shows the same if you look at team GF-GA (though he was worse in Det this year).

  36. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    Hall is not coming back here, and that’s not a bad thing.Next contract will never fit, and he really didn’t fit with 97’s style on the ice either.Hall and Connor both like having the puck on their stick coming through the neutral zone, so when they were on the ice together it was almost a waste of one of those guys’ ability to enter the offensivewith speed.

    Nuge-Drai-Yammo were doing most of their damage with tenacious forecheck and puck battle dominance.Hall might add an element to that line, but I’m pretty content to try to keep those 3 together and resign Nuge (definitely at a lower cap hit than Hall).

    Long story short: Nothing to see here.They need to focus on finding 97 some capable wingers (Athanasiou might be part of that solution).Hall is not that guy.

    I really doubt Hall is coming here, but I don’t buy the narrative they can’t play together. The most they played together was at the World championships and they were tremendous.

  37. jp says:

    defmn: Agreed. Lucic fell off the cliff sooner than expected by me for sure.

    I thought we would get 3 years of reasonable value followed by a drop in the 4th and a ‘how the hell do we get out of this’ after that.

    Holland can’t afford to repeat that mistake with Hall.

    I agree Holland can’t repeat a similar series of mistakes, but are you suggesting Hall will follow the Lucic trajectory? I think that’s very unlikely.

  38. Sunnyboy says:

    No to Hall, no to bringing back former Oilers, no. Not one. Slep was the wise one to decline, good on him. Gagner was not good enough for the Canucks, he was not good enough a second time here and now some want him back for thirds. Davidson was brought back for ??? and then gone, now in Stockton. Just no to retreads, not one of them is as good as when they left in the first place. The team needs better players to advance. Bringing players back sends amessage that management does not want to win, that not improving is OK. No to Lander, Stortini, Marincin or anybody that was sent away.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rickety Cricket:
    2010 was a solid draft. Injuries were a big factor for Davidson and Pitlick.

    I am happy Marincin has carved out a decent career. I always liked him.

    I could be misremembering, but I think Hamilton also suffered some pretty significant injuries.

    It cannot believe it has been almost a decade since the Oilers drafted Hall. Wild.

    The question I have, would there be so much talk about acquiring Hall (either via trade (rental or rental with intent to sign) or UFA signing) if he had not been drafted by the Oilers and didn’t have that previous connection?

    I don’t recall Oilers fans talking so much about Tavares, for example, leading up to the deadline when he was pending UFA and leading up to that July 1.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Any 6th round pick that makes it to the NHL is a successful pick – Davidson is narrowing in on 200 games and he’s only 28

  41. Munny says:

    RIP Kristians.

    Always good to see your name up there in bright pixels. You are not forgotten.

  42. slopitch says:

    jp: DFF%RC

    Sure he’s not a drag. But he’s even relative to his teamates on a bad team. Id rather a positive RC player on a good team but its possible hes not part of the problem. Its tough with poor teams figuring out where the issues lie. My point is that I want a river pusher to help 97. Doesnt have to be Hall. But Id still aim higher than AA. Happy to be wrong 🙂

  43. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: The question I have, would there be so much talk about acquiring Hall (either via trade (rental or rental with intent to sign) or UFA signing) if he had not been drafted by the Oilers and didn’t have that previous connection?

    I don’t recall Oilers fans talking so much about Tavares, for example, leading up to the deadline when he was pending UFA and leading up to that July 1.

    For the same reason we talk about Marincin and pretty much every other ex Oiler

  44. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Any 6th round pick that makes it to the NHL is a successful pick – Davidson is narrowing in on 200 games and he’s only 28

    Agreed, if you’re 4th round or later and making 200 games in the NHL that’s a success.

  45. leadfarmer says:

    Darth Tu:
    jp,

    If the Cap is staying stable/going down I think the free agents this year aren’t going to get the pay days they were hoping for.Maybe a 1 year $6 mill deal to come to Edmonton, win the Cup and then he still gets a shot at a big pay day the year after. Completely improbable but it’s the only way Hall coming back works.

    We can’t afford him at whatever the current market rate is.

    This already didn’t look like a good year to be a free agent because of how many teams were capped. Now it’s going to be a very hard year

  46. jp says:

    slopitch: Sure he’s not a drag. But he’s even relative to his teamates on a bad team. Id rather a positive RC player on a good team but its possible hes not part of the problem. Its tough with poor teams figuring out where the issues lie. My point is that I want a river pusher to help 97. Doesnt have to be Hall. But Id still aim higher than AA. Happy to be wrong

    Nuge has many seasons of 45-46% SF% and GF% on bad Oiler teams. It’s hard to know how much blame an individual deserves for team failures.

    And a river pusher would be absolutely great, no question. But they also cost much more to acquire and to pay (as you’re well aware).

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    DeeJay:
    Drew Czerwonka played his Junior hockey in Cranbrook, BC for the Kootenay ICE.As a Cranbrook resident I can attest that while Drew was not a spectaular player, he wrung every ounce of talent from the hockey skills he had.He was a member of the 2010/11 WHL Championship ICE squad – a hard working lunch pail crew who had no chance of winning, yet beat all comers with hard work and disciplined play.Should Drew have been drafted by the Oilers…..not a chance….yet I can only imagine the joy that moment brought to Drew and his family.It was the pinnacle of his hockey career, he never played at any level after Junior…..but what a great story he has to tell to his kids and beer league buddies…..just sayin’

    Wait, playing for the Balgonie Bisons of the Qu’Appelle Valley Hockey League doesn’t count?

    What about the Whitewood Orioles of the Triangle Hockey League?

  48. defmn says:

    jp: I agree Holland can’t repeat a similar series of mistakes, but are you suggesting Hall will follow the Lucic trajectory? I think that’s very unlikely.

    Injuries. He misses a lot of games. In the four seasons since he left Edmonton he has scored 20, 39, 11, and 16 goals.

    Those who are big on his return to Edmonton (short of some fantasy home team discount in $ and term) can and have filled pages with context to explain those numbers but the only number worth the cost is the year he got 39 goals. His next best season is 27 goals which is a nice number but six years ago.

    I think the potential for disappointment is very high. That’s all.

  49. --hudson-- says:

    Was it Lowe or MacT that called Hecht a one-shot scorer?

    Frustrating to look back at the series of moves – Doug Weight for Hecht/Reasoner followed by the Buffalo trade. Their Oilers pro scouting must have been either inept or non existent despite a nice recovery to draft Stoll. So many self inflicted wounds back in those days.

  50. Munny says:

    defmn,

    He’s an overpay waiting to happen.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    That’s a great comparison for the Athanasiou trade LT. Plus you could argue AA’s 30 goals last year were better than anything Hecht ever did, though Jochen was also more of a 2 way player. Anyway, AA could well end up being a big part of this team, only time will tell.

    I posted this late last night in response to another poster and figured I’d post it again since the Athanasiou discussion is still relevant.

    ————————————————————————————————-

    The jury is still very much out on Athanasiou. It’s not at all clear how this will go and I agree it could turn out being a poor acquisition.

    But saying “They didn’t buy him on his low point. They bought him at his career norm.” is simply not a true statement.

    This season was the lowest games played, goals, points and +/- of his career. Check out his 5 on 5 goal differential vs Detroit’s (not including his Edm games this season)
    15-16 DET -8 AA 0
    16-17 DET -18 AA 0
    17-18 DET -18 AA -8
    18-19 DET -30 AA -5
    19-20 DET -76 AA -31

    He was nothing special before this year but he wasn’t a drag relative to team (and this year everything went to shit in Detroit). Before that he was -13 for a team that was -74. This is by far the worst season of his career.

    And we know he can score. 30 goals and 54 points last season is pretty impressive (tied for 39th and 79th in the NHL, respectively).

    Just one year you say? Over the past 3 seasons Athanasiou has averaged 67-19-19-38. With injuries included he scored goals like a borderline #4/5 forward and points like a borderline #5/6 forward. He’s very clearly scored like a top 6 forward, including this worst season of his career.

    I dunno. Athanasiou’s career norm is a pretty valuable player. I think we should give him a chance.

    ————————————————————————————————-

    I glossed over this yesterday but read if more fully today and thank you for posting again.

  52. jeetz says:

    It would be crazy to move AA but if Holland moved both AA and K. Russell, the Oilers could easily have Hall on a 1 year (which Hall said he would not do) 7 mil contract. Lagesson/Green fills K Russell’s boots.

    It’s not impossible. Just not probable

    Ottawa (7 picks in first 2 rounds) and Montreal (12 picks in total) have lots of draft picks. PJ and AA to Ottawa for a 1st and a 2nd? Russell to the Habs for a 4th.

    Sign Hall 1 year x 7 mil. Oilers have a big 2020-21 season

    Hall McDavid Kassian

  53. defmn says:

    Munny:
    defmn,

    He’s an overpay waiting to happen.

    I was trying to be subtle. 😉

  54. defmn says:

    Big news from the windy city.

    “The Chicago Blackhawks have sent shockwaves across the hockey world today, announcing that they have “released” John McDonough from his role as team president and CEO. Chairman Rocky Wirtz explained the decision:

    Thirteen years ago, I recruited John to the Blackhawks because of his leadership, direction and vision. John brought all of that to the table and more. His contributions went well beyond leading the team to three Stanley Cup Championships. He rebuilt the front office and helped guide the organization toward a winning vision. As difficult as this is, we believe it was the right decision for the future of the organization and its fans.

    The club will immediately begin a search to fill the role of team president. Daniel Wirtz, who currently serves as vice president and alternate governor, will serve as president in the interim.”

  55. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: That’s totally fair, not sure I like it either. I definitely don’t want to move Nuge, though how much he wants on his next contract would be a factor. Hall is 18 months older and definitely an injury risk. He’s also shown to be a considerably better player when healthy (4 PPG+ seasons compared to Nuge’s career high 0.94 this season).

    The only way I see this working is if Hall were willing to sign a comparable contract to whatever Nuge wants as an extension.

    Another way of looking at it, to account for health issues, is by comparing their production per season rather than per game or per 82.

    Career:
    Hall: 66, 23-36-59
    RNH: 71, 20-32-52

    Past 6 seasons:
    Hall: 64, 21-35-56
    RNH: 70, 21-31-52

    Past 3 seasons:
    Hall: 58, 22-39-61
    RNH: 70, 25-35-60

    I’m not sure it’s worth trading Nuge’s versatility for basically zero offensive gain.

  56. jp says:

    defmn: Injuries. He misses a lot of games. In the four seasons since he left Edmonton he has scored 20, 39, 11, and 16 goals.

    Those who are big on his return to Edmonton (short of some fantasy home team discount in $ and term) can and have filled pages with context to explain those numbers but the only number worth the cost is the year he got 39 goals. His next best season is 27 goals which is a nice number but six years ago.

    I think the potential for disappointment is very high. That’s all.

    The premise of my initial post on Hall was IF he wanted to be an Oiler and IF he’d take a discount (at least part of which has been reported publicly) then… There’s zero question full market value ($10M X 7 or whatever) for Hall would be foolhardy. I do agree that would be a Lucic kind of move, thought likely still not THAT damaging honestly.

    Hall is an injury risk for sure, but he’s scored just a few less goals than Nuge over the past 4 years even with a major injury and far weaker teammates. I think everyone agrees a healthy Hall is the better player (I’ll probably find shortly that’s not true!). And Nuge will be getting a raise in a year or so.

    I acknowledge it’s not very likely, but if a Nuge extension ($7.5M? $8M?) is only marginally cheaper than Hall with a UFA discount ($8M or $8.5M X5?) then I’d have to seriously consider signing Hall and figuring out what to do with Nuge.

  57. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Another way of looking at it, to account for health issues, is by comparing their production per season rather than per game or per 82.

    Career:
    Hall: 66, 23-36-59
    RNH: 71, 20-32-52

    Past 6 seasons:
    Hall: 64, 21-35-56
    RNH: 70, 21-31-52

    Past 3 seasons:
    Hall: 58, 22-39-61
    RNH: 70, 25-35-60

    I’m not sure it’s worth trading Nuge’s versatility for basically zero offensive gain.

    Yet another is that Nuge has had better help (by far his most common linemates by all-situations TOI are Draisaitl and McDavid).

    And another is that Hall has never had a season with a negative 5v5 GF% relative to team. He’s pretty much the definition of river pusher.

  58. Darth Tu says:

    jp,

    I’m keeping Nuge every single time. He works so well with Drai, and if the wing depth does arrive can drive his own line. It’s also perfect insurance to have him there to slot back over to centre in case either Draisatl and McDavid go down injured.

    As we both stated above though, if Hall would dream of signing a short (one or two year) contract with the Oilers I would jump at that too (as long as the cash works – I’m looking at you KRussell and Neal).

    If only Puljujarvi was still around and was banging in goals on either the McDavid or Nuge/Drai line. This whole conversation would be moot.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: Any chance Eberle might be available at a massive discount after that Steve Austin era contract? $3 million and he’s a valuable addition lol

    That will be tough given he’s got four more years on a 5 X $5.5M deal with the Isles – which he signed coming off a 19G and 38 point season (in a full 78 games) – a bit of a bounce-back this year but that contract was/is terrible.

    I wonder if the Isles would retain $2.5M per…….. of course not.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    hunter1909,

    Ebs is locked up until 23/24, at a $5.5M AAV.His NTC goes to a 16 team no trade list beginning next year.So unless Kenny can somehow grind on Lou to retain that’s not going to happen any time soon.

    Beat me too it – guess I should have realized the new contract would be pointed out before I responded…..

  61. defmn says:

    jp: The premise of my initial post on Hall was IF he wanted to be an Oiler and IF he’d take a discount (at least part of which has been reported publicly) then… There’s zero question full market value ($10M X 7 or whatever) for Hall would be foolhardy. I do agree that would be a Lucic kind of move, thought likely still not THAT damaging honestly.

    Hall is an injury risk for sure, but he’s scored just a few less goals than Nuge over the past 4 years even with a major injury and far weaker teammates. I think everyone agrees a healthy Hall is the better player (I’ll probably find shortly that’s not true!). And Nuge will be getting a raise in a year or so.

    I acknowledge it’s not very likely, but if a Nuge extension ($7.5M? $8M?) is only marginally cheaper than Hall with a UFA discount ($8M or $8.5M X5?) then I’d have to seriously consider signing Hall and figuring out what to do with Nuge.

    I understand. I’m just not that big a fan. I have read all the posts over the years, the numbers that ‘prove’ he is an elite hockey player.

    At the end of what can be – and has been on this blog – a long, long conversation I just can’t get excited. If I had that $8.5 mil I’d go shopping for a $5 mil winger and a $3.5 mil 3C.

    But then I am big on balance and I think this team has its offensive leaders already signed in Connor and Leon.

  62. jp says:

    defmn: I understand. I’m just not that big a fan. I have read all the posts over the years, the numbers that ‘prove’ he is an elite hockey player.

    At the end ofwhat can be – and has been on this blog – a long, long conversation I just can’t get excited. If I had that $8.5 mil I’d go shopping for a $5 mil winger and a $3.5 mil 3C.

    But then I am big on balance and I think this team has its offensive leaders already signed in Connor and Leon.

    That’s fair, I can’t expect you to get as excited about Hall as about Curtis Hamilton 🙂

    But then would you go shopping for a $5M winger and $3M 3C (or $4.5 and $3M) rather than re-signing Nuge next summer?

    I don’t disagree with what you’re saying by the way, this team doesn’t NEED to add high priced skill. I’m just not sure the gap price for Hall and Nuge will be that much, and IMO Hall is the better hockey player.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu:
    jp,

    If the Cap is staying stable/going down I think the free agents this year aren’t going to get the pay days they were hoping for.Maybe a 1 year $6 mill deal to come to Edmonton, win the Cup and then he still gets a shot at a big pay day the year after. Completely improbable but it’s the only way Hall coming back works.

    We can’t afford him at whatever the current market rate is.

    Hall has very recently said that he does not want a short term/one-year deal even with the market likely being depressed this year.

    We’ll see what ends up happening but, yes, don’t see it happening.

  64. jp says:

    Darth Tu:
    jp,

    I’m keeping Nuge every single time.He works so well with Drai, and if the wing depth does arrive can drive his own line.It’s also perfect insurance to have him there to slot back over to centre in case either Draisatl and McDavid go down injured.

    As we both stated above though, if Hall would dream of signing a short (one or two year) contract with the Oilers I would jump at that too (as long as the cash works – I’m looking at you KRussell and Neal).

    If only Puljujarvi was still around and was banging in goals on either the McDavid or Nuge/Drai line. This whole conversation would be moot.

    The whole conversation is probably moot anyway.

    But if Hall and Nuge were available for the same deals (very unlikely) then I’d take Hall. He worked very well with Draisaitl too before he got moved and as I’ve said is simply a better hockey player than Nuge IMO. I can understand if not everyone agrees.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Moving Nuge to sign Hall has an eerie ring to it. It reminds me of when they moved Hall to sign Lucic.

    Not a fan, myself. Age and injuries combined with contract term and dollars make this a non-starter for me.

    I am aware, however, that there is an almost cultish preoccupation with the idea of repatriating him to this team here on this site.

    I agree here.

    I can’t honestly say that Hall isnt’ the more “dynamic player” and, frankly, Nuge has been injured alot as well but, at the same time, if contract is fairly equal, moving Nuge out for Hall seems a bit risky and I’m not sure it makes the team better. Nuge is a bit younger, he is more versatile, he kills penalties and, even though he has been injured quite. bit, given style of play, I think he regresses slower than Hall.

  66. godot10 says:

    Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, Yamamoto
    Nygard, McDavid, Kassian
    Hall, Khaira, Puljujarvi
    Ennis, Sheehan, Archibald

    I think Puljujarvi would work really well with Hall.

  67. defmn says:

    jp: That’s fair, I can’t expect you to get as excited about Hall as about Curtis Hamilton

    But then would you go shopping for a $5M winger and $3M 3C (or $4.5 and $3M) rather than re-signing Nuge next summer?

    I don’t disagree with what you’re saying by the way, this team doesn’t NEED to add high priced skill. I’m just not sure the gap price for Hall and Nuge will be that much, and IMO Hall is the better hockey player.

    This team doesn’t have $8.5 mil in cap space to go shopping with but I expect Holland to know this summer what Nuge wants to do and how much it is going to cost. Anything else and he isn’t doing his job. And if the agent won’t answer those questions then the agent has told him something and it is time to make a plan based upon that information.

    One of the things I think is important to remember is that it is not the GM’s job to get the best players he can get. It is his job to assemble the best team he can put together. I understand there is overlap in those two ideas but they are not identical.

    I can agree that Hall is the better player, for example, and still think Nuge makes the team better because of any number of factors I am reluctant to list here since they just start another whole conversation that has been done to death.

    I keep Nuge if his contract demands are in the realm of reasonable.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sunnyboy:
    No to Hall, no to bringing back former Oilers, no. Not one. Slep was the wise one to decline, good on him. Gagner was not good enough for the Canucks, he was not good enough a second time here and now some want him back for thirds. Davidson was brought back for ??? and then gone, now in Stockton. Just no to retreads, not one of them is as good as when they left in the first place. The team needs better players to advance. Bringing players back sends amessage that management does not want to win, that not improving is OK. No to Lander, Stortini, Marincin or anybody that was sent away.

    Agree on not bringing Hall back but don’t agree on the overall premise that a former Oiler can never be brought back as it signals a negative message.

    Was Gagner worth a $3M cap hit this past year? Of course, not, however the trade was still a massive victory for the Oilers as, for the same cap hit, he provided the OIlers with MUCH more than Spooner. The Canucks bought out Spooner and had a cap hit of over $1MM to have Spooner play in the KHL and the Swiss league and they will have that same cap hit next year.

    A Gagner signing could be a solid signing for the Oilers – it would be potentially 6 figures (under $1M) but in the $1M range – so barely over league minimum and the player would be able to play anywhere from the press-box to filling in for a few games in the top 6 – he normally has a few good games when moved up the lineup prior to falling back down. He would be a cheap utility forward and paid properly for it this time.

    Anyways, I’m not saying Gagner should be re-signed but just don’t agree with the premise of the post above.

  69. Mr DeBakey says:

    So, I listened to the Lowedown today.
    Do you know only 5 goalies have played more than 225 games for the Oilers?
    And two of them just barely.
    Anywho:

    Taylor Hall ** Connor McDavid ** Leon Draisaitl
    Mark Messier ** Wayne Gretzky ** Jari Kurri
    Ryan Smyth ** Doug Weight ** Ales Hemsky
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ** Shawn Horcoff ** Fernando Pisani
    **
    Boris Mironov ** Luke Richardson
    Charlie Huddy ** Jeff Petry
    Kevin Lowe ** Al Hamilton
    **
    Bill Ranford
    Grant Fuhr

  70. Mr DeBakey says:

    The hardest part was leaving Rusty Patenaude off the list.

  71. jp says:

    defmn: This team doesn’t have $8.5 mil in cap space to go shopping with but I expect Holland to know this summer what Nuge wants to do and how much it is going to cost. Anything else and he isn’t doing his job. And if the agent won’t answer those questions then the agent has told him something and it is time to make a plan based upon that information.

    One of the things I think is important to remember is that it is not the GM’s job to get the best players he can get. It is his job to assemble the best team he can put together. I understand there is overlap in those two ideas but they are not identical.

    I can agree that Hall is the better player, for example, and still think Nuge makes the team better because of any number of factors I am reluctant to list here since they just start another whole conversation that has been done to death.

    I keep Nuge if his contract demands are in the realm of reasonable.

    That’s all totally fair. I obviously don’t agree 100% with everything but I also don’t particularly disagree with any of this.

  72. jp says:

    Sorry to keep going with this Hall stuff… But, could the Oilers afford Hall and Nuge (and all their other important pieces)?

    We all know the answer is probably not, but it isn’t actually as far fetched as it may seem.

    Conditions:
    Flat cap – $81.5M
    Compliance buyouts/clean removal of Neal and Russell’s salaries (and obviously Katz’s willingness to eat those $$)
    Hall willing to sign for ~$8M (one year or longer).
    Bridge for Bear
    Relatively low salaries for other FA/UFA (plausible in a flat cap summer)

    Trades:
    Chiasson to Montreal for a pick
    AA to Montreal for Danault
    Benning to wherever for 2nd or 3rd.

    Signings:
    Hall $8M
    Ennis $1.2M
    Puljujarvi $1.2M
    Sheahan $1M
    Bear $2M
    Green $2M (could also be Benning)
    Smith (or other) $2M

    Lineup:
    Hall-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
    Ennis-Danault-Puljujarvi
    Nygard-Sheahan-Archibald
    Benson-Khaira (or Haas)

    Nurse-Bear
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Jones-Green
    Lagesson
    (with Bouchard in waiting)

    Koskinen
    Smith (or other!)

    That lineup costs $80.63M, leaving $872k space.

    This is all very unlikely obviously, but I was surprised how plausible this is IF there’s a compliance buyout or two available, and if Hall were willing to sign for something of a discount.

  73. pts2pndr says:

    jp: The whole conversation is probably moot anyway.

    But if Hall and Nuge were available for the same deals (very unlikely) then I’d take Hall. He worked very well with Draisaitl too before he got moved and as I’ve said is simply a better hockey player than Nuge IMO. I can understand if not everyone agrees.

    Two players that are close in talent and one is a center the smart choice is the center every time. Nuge also kills penalties and is less injury prone. Hall is more dynamic but quality of team is better with Nuge if the choice is one or the other at the same price.

  74. Sunnyboy says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    There were 2 premises; that former players are not good enough and, that their return sends a negative message. Gagner would be a desperation signing imo. With his history of games played with the Phantoms, Marlies and Condors, healthy scratches here and on the coast, I would get a message that KH has thrown up his hands and defaulted to a known barely replacement level player. Sign a younger, faster guy with more upside.
    I would not be happy, you may disagree as you choose.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Sorry to keep going with this Hall stuff… But, could the Oilers afford Hall and Nuge (and all their other important pieces)?

    We all know the answer is probably not, but it isn’t actually as far fetched as it may seem.

    Conditions:
    Flat cap – $81.5M
    Compliance buyouts/clean removal of Neal and Russell’s salaries (and obviously Katz’s willingness to eat those $$)
    Hall willing to sign for ~$8M (one year or longer).
    Bridge for Bear
    Relatively low salaries for other FA/UFA (plausible in a flat cap summer)

    Trades:
    Chiasson to Montreal for a pick
    AA to Montreal for Danault
    Benning to wherever for 2nd or 3rd.

    Signings:
    Hall $8M
    Ennis $1.2M
    Puljujarvi $1.2M
    Sheahan $1M
    Bear $2M
    Green $2M (could also be Benning)
    Smith (or other) $2M

    Lineup:
    Hall-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
    Ennis-Danault-Puljujarvi
    Nygard-Sheahan-Archibald
    Benson-Khaira (or Haas)

    Nurse-Bear
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Jones-Green
    Lagesson
    (with Bouchard in waiting)

    Koskinen
    Smith (or other!)

    That lineup costs $80.63M, leaving $872k space.

    This is all very unlikely obviously, but I was surprised how plausible this is IF there’s a compliance buyout or two available, and if Hall were willing to sign for something of a discount.

    Solid post and thanks for the work and the effort.

    First big issue for me is that I don’t see compliance buyouts as being likely – for sure, they could happen but I’m not so sure the board of governors go for them. The owners are already going to be “in the hole” having received less than 50% of HRR for the 2019/20 season and having the 2020/21 cap almost assuredly be inflated over half of projected HRR. They will be made whole over a period of time but I’m not sure that they will be in to compliance buyouts which is simply more money to the players that goes out of the system.

    Would love to see Jesse in the lineup but nothing points to him all of a sudden becoming willing to play for the Oilers.

    It would take MUCH more than AA to get Daneault I’m confidant of that – even one year until UFA.

    Does that above factor in $1.3M for Pouliot and $2.5M for Sekera?

  76. slopitch says:

    jp,

    Hey thats basically what I proposed a few days ago. Thanks for doing the math on that scenario. We must agree on something 🙂

  77. Munny says:

    jp,

    Danault is one of three or four elite 3Cs in the League. Out of all the Habs players, he might be the most untouchable (it doesn’t help matters that he’s also Quebecois).

    Would love to have him on the Oilers, but don’t see it. Nurse might do it. Probably an easier way out there to cover the 3C slot, that said.

  78. Georges says:

    By your boxcars, AA has scored 75 goals in the past 4 seasons. That has him tied for 106th among forwards. Not too flashy but quite decent.

    I noticed he only has 8 PP goals over that time (weird) which leaves him with 67 EV goals. That ties him with Kadri, Kopitar, and Kreider (weird!) for 54th. That’s quite promising, isn’t it?

    I watched his 18-19 highlight reel on YT. The kid can really really play. Great wheels, great hands, great shot. He should sign something reasonable, given the down year. He’s KH’s guy, acquired for a very reasonable two second round picks. He’s going to do very well playing in Tippett’s top 6. As long as he avoids the water. I’m sure there’s something in there. Just ask Hall. Hall has 5 playoff games and 5 lottery wins. Hall drank the water.

  79. jp says:

    slopitch:
    jp,

    Hey thats basically what I proposed a few days ago. Thanks for doing the math on that scenario. We must agree on something 🙂

    You did, maybe I was remembering your post subconsciously! Seems you were ahead of the curve and sorry if I was skeptical at the time.

  80. jp says:

    Munny:
    jp,

    Danault is one of three or four elite 3Cs in the League.Out of all the Habs players, he might be the most untouchable (it doesn’t help matters that he’s also Quebecois).

    Would love to have him on the Oilers, but don’t see it.Nurse might do it.Probably an easier way out there to cover the 3C slot, that said.

    That’s fair. His name has been floated recently and the salary fit for my purposes. His 1 year to UFA vs 2 for AA made me think it was plausible but I don’t know the player particularly well (in terms of assets out Benning could be added to AA but that might not move the needle either). The main exercise was showing a $3M 3C could conceivably still be possible with Hall and Nuge on the Oilers roster.

  81. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Solid post and thanks for the work and the effort.

    First big issue for me is that I don’t see compliance buyouts as being likely – for sure, they could happen but I’m not so sure the board of governors go for them. The owners are already going to be “in the hole” having received less than 50% of HRR for the 2019/20 season and having the 2020/21 cap almost assuredly be inflated over half of projected HRR. They will be made whole over a period of time but I’m not sure that they will be in to compliance buyouts which is simply more money to the players that goes out of the system.

    Would love to see Jesse in the lineup but nothing points to him all of a sudden becoming willing to play for the Oilers.

    It would take MUCH more than AA to get Daneault I’m confidant of that – even one year until UFA.

    Does that above factor in $1.3M for Pouliot and $2.5M for Sekera?

    1) The roster is at the edges of what’s possible in many ways (primarily compliance buyouts being available and used plus Hall signing in Edmonton for $8M. Also a bunch of other decent players signing below what “market value” has been).

    2) Absolutely Puljujarvi isn’t likely to return. But that report of his comments recently (you posted it, right?) to the effect ‘never say never’ on an Oilers return sounded different from anything we’ve heard in the past year. So, never say never.

    3) Covered that a minute ago. Danault was a poor choice at the price I suggested. Pick another 3C making $3M or less that could be obtained as a UFA or for some combination of AA, Benning, picks (even Puljujarvi if you don’t think he’ll be back).

    4) Those numbers do include the Pouliot/Sekera buyouts.

    The above scenario is plausible. Definitely not likely.

  82. Munny says:

    Georges,

    I actually have high hopes for AA. Maybe that’s an unpopular opinion, don’t know. Love his one-timer. He’s got some finish.

  83. jp says:

    Georges:
    By your boxcars, AA has scored 75 goals in the past 4 seasons. That has him tied for 106th among forwards. Not too flashy but quite decent.

    I noticed he only has 8 PP goals over that time (weird) which leaves him with 67 EV goals. That ties him with Kadri, Kopitar, and Kreider (weird!) for 54th. That’s quite promising, isn’t it?

    I watched his 18-19 highlight reel on YT. The kid can really really play. Great wheels, great hands, great shot. He should sign something reasonable, given the down year. He’s KH’s guy, acquired for a very reasonable two second round picks. He’s going to do very well playing in Tippett’s top 6. As long as he avoids the water. I’m sure there’s something in there. Just ask Hall. Hall has 5 playoff games and 5 lottery wins. Hall drank the water.

    I knew most of his scoring was at even strength but wow. 54th in EV goals over 4 years. Gheez.

    And his 2nd most common linemate in the most recent 3 yrs was Glendenning (though the others were top 6F).

    I’m looking forward to him settling in too, Taylor Hall miracles notwithstanding.

  84. defmn says:

    Georges:
    By your boxcars, AA has scored 75 goals in the past 4 seasons. That has him tied for 106th among forwards. Not too flashy but quite decent.

    I noticed he only has 8 PP goals over that time (weird) which leaves him with 67 EV goals. That ties him with Kadri, Kopitar, and Kreider (weird!) for 54th. That’s quite promising, isn’t it?

    I watched his 18-19 highlight reel on YT. The kid can really really play. Great wheels, great hands, great shot. He should sign something reasonable, given the down year. He’s KH’s guy, acquired for a very reasonable two second round picks. He’s going to do very well playing in Tippett’s top 6. As long as he avoids the water. I’m sure there’s something in there. Just ask Hall. Hall has 5 playoff games and 5 lottery wins. Hall drank the water.

    I’m really looking forward to seeing what AA can do in a feature role beside Draisaitl or McDavid once he has settled in. I think it was a solid bet by Holland.

  85. duct tape and foil says:

    Sunnyboy,

    Absolutely right. Those trips down memory lane are pointless.

    I can’t believe people want Eberle back. He was basically shyte in NYI last season and most of this season. Tied to Barzal and got out-scored by Chiasson last year. He gets hot for a couple of games in the playoffs and NYI loses their mind with that stinker of a contract. Strome kicked his butt this year and last. We won that trade going away except Chiarelli was an idiot.

    Hall had one MVP year and was mediocre or injured the other 3. Led NJD and ARZ exactly no where and it’s always somebody else’s fault. A terrible trade but Larsson was arguably more valuable (which is different than better) half the time. I take RNH over Hall next year no question given his growth as a player the past two years and his ability to play center and both special teams.

    Gagner???? Game little rooster this year but he’s a borderline NHLer who can’t play against elites (could he ever?). His curtain call was a bit fun while it lasted. Thanks for spearing Talbot and giving us the pleasure of watching their goalie get clobbered by ours in the most enjoyable game this town has seen since the 2017 playoffs.

    Old Dutch harbors no such fuzzy pink memories about guys who achieved little in terms of success.

    I think AA has a chance to be a real buy-low trade. His PDO this season is hilarious and the guy has everything you want for a top 6 winger with McDavid. He was smart enough to be very deferential in his short time in EDM. That is not his game but it is a wise thing to do coming into a successful team with well defined hierarchy. Be quiet, learn the ropes, earn the respect of the team, wait for your chance. That approach will not get you immediate success but it sets him up to be way better next season or maybe even this year if the playoffs resume.

    Bringing back Hall, Eberle, Gagner etc etc. Goodness grief some people have the hockey equivalent of battered spouse syndrome.

  86. who says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Sunnyboy,

    Absolutely right. Those trips down memory lane are pointless.

    I can’t believe people want Eberle back. He was basically shyte in NYI last season and most of this season. Tied to Barzal and got out-scored by Chiasson last year. He gets hot for a couple of games in the playoffs and NYI loses their mind with that stinker of a contract. Strome kicked his butt this year and last. We won that trade going away except Chiarelli was an idiot.

    Hall had one MVP year and was mediocre or injured the other 3. Led NJD and ARZ exactly no where and it’s always somebody else’s fault. A terrible trade but Larsson was arguably more valuable (which is different than better) half the time. I take RNH over Hall next year no question given his growth as a player the past two years and his ability to play center and both special teams.

    Gagner???? Game little rooster this year but he’s a borderline NHLer who can’t play against elites (could he ever?). His curtain call was a bit fun while it lasted. Thanks for spearing Talbot and giving us the pleasure of watching their goalie get clobbered by ours in the most enjoyable game this town has seen since the 2017 playoffs.

    Old Dutch harbors no such fuzzy pink memories about guys who achieved little in terms of success.

    I think AA has a chance to be a real buy-low trade. His PDO this season is hilarious and the guy has everything you want for a top 6 winger with McDavid. He was smart enough to be very deferential in his short time in EDM. That is not his game but it is a wise thing to do coming into a successful team with well defined hierarchy. Be quiet, learn the ropes, earn the respect of the team, wait for your chance. That approach will not get you immediate success but it sets him up to be way better next season or maybe even this year if the playoffs resume.

    Bringing back Hall, Eberle, Gagner etc etc. Goodness grief some people have the hockey equivalent of battered spouse syndrome.

    Beauty post.

  87. jp says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Sunnyboy,

    I can’t believe people want Eberle back. He was basically shyte in NYI last season and most of this season.

    Only full season of his career under 50 points, and he was still a 2nd line scorer.

  88. Munny says:

    duct tape and foil: Goodness grief some people have the hockey equivalent of battered spouse syndrome.

    A not even remotely equivalent analogy. Talk about framing.

    I’m not on Team Hall, but can’t agree with this rhetoric being the way to make the argument.

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