Fly Like an Eagle

by Lowetide

I was convinced the Edmonton Oilers and new general manager Ken Holland would harvest two or three USHL players at the 2019 draft. The US National Team played in the alley behind his house! He must have known these young players front to back and back to front again.

I wrote the following about Trevor Zegras, who was available when Edmonton stepped to the podium: “Undersized and highly skilled, elusive and aggressive with very good speed. I think he’s a Ken Holland type.” Holland kept his powder dry on the USHL kids until pick No. 100. Pretty good poker player, that Ken Holland.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

USHL 2020 TOP PLAYERS

  1. LD Jake Sanderson. Smart player, incredible skater and has complete skill set.
  2. LC Ty Smilanic. Scouting report talks about plus skating and finding another gear.
  3. RW Sam Colangelo. Big power winger with skill, scored 28 goals in 44 games.
  4. LC Thomas Bordeleau. Owns a great shot and is highly skilled with the puck.
  5. LW Brendan Brisson. Undersized speedster has lots of talent, good skater.
  6. RW Daniil Gushchin. Small, speedy playmaking forward. Good numbers.
  7. LW Sean Farrell. A good skater with plus skills, he is posting strong numbers this season.
  8. LW Luke Tuch. Alex Tuch’s brother, plays a similar style. Numbers are good not great.
  9. LW Brett Berard. Small skill winger with good hands, he scored seven goals in 13 games.
  10. LD Tyler Kleven. A big shutdown defenseman (6.04, 201) with good speed. 
  11. LC Cameron Berg. Good speed and skill, scored 18 goals in 30 games.
  12. RC Colby Ambrosio. Speedster, very skilled, I love his resume. Just 5.08, he’s a bullet.
  13. RD Eamon Powell. Impressive skater can move the puck effectively
  14. LD Dave Ma. Tremendous skater and very creative.
  15. LW Alex Laferriere. Great shot, good passer, creative player. Skating the concern.
  16. LD Mitch Miller. Fine skater, has two-way skills.
  17. LW Carson Bantle. Big winger, has skill, average skater, lots of primary points.
  18. LD Jacob Truscott. Offensive defenseman who has some edge to his game.
  19. RD Luke Reid. Good speed and can move the puck.
  20. G Drew Commesso. Good size, thrived wherever he played in 2019-20. Big step forward.
  21. RD Noah Ellis. Big blue impressed at Hlinka.
  22. LC Ryan Kirwan. Haven’t read about him, just know he can score goals.
  23. LD Christian Jiminez. Offensive defenseman.

Several quality talents here, I’m impressed by Colangelo, Brisson, Farrell and Powell. I don’t know why Holland avoided the USHL kids last season, so will be cautious in projecting draft picks from this league for Edmonton. Since 2000, Matt Greene, Jeff Petry and Caleb Jones have been procured from the USHL so it’s worth mining.

USHL IN 2019

  1. LC Jack Hughes. He’s a rocket who can make hockey plays at peak speed consistently.
  2. LC Alex Turcotte. A strong two-way reputation, he is skilled and an excellent skater.
  3. LC Trevor Zegras. Highly skilled, elusive and aggressive with very good speed.
  4. R Cole Caufield. He’s small, fast and a ridiculous scorer. Quick release, accurate.
  5. LD Cam York. Impact puck mover out of the USHL, great speed, passing and creativity.
  6. L Matthew Boldy. Bigger winger with skill, he’s strong on the puck and can score goals.
  7. R Bobby Brink. Small, fast and very skilled, he’s an intelligent player with great vision.
  8. L Egor Afanasyev. He’s a big forward with a powerful stride and an excellent shot.
  9. G Spencer Knight. A .929 save percentage and a mountain of positive scouting reports
  10. L Robert Mastrosimone. Skill winger.
  11. L Vladislav Firstov. Skill winger has a plus shot and delivered impressive results.
  12. RD Drew Helleson. Impressive puck moving defender.
  13. LD Henry Thrun. He’s a two-way defender who delivered sold offense (23 points in 28 games).
  14. RC Shane Pinto. Big RHC intriguing because of his size (6.02, 192) and scoring prowess.
  15. LC John Beecher. Center with good size and two-way ability.
  16. LD Alex Vlasic. Big defender who will make his living on the defensive side of the puck.
  17. R Judd Caulfield. He’s a power forward.
  18. L Marcus Kallionkieli. He scored 29 goals in 58 games, that’s excellent production.
  19. LC Matias Maccelli. Lots of skill, was dominant (62, 31-41-72) offensively.
  20. RD Ronnie Attard. He’s a 1999. Still, he’s a giant with a bomb for a shot and that has appeal.
  21. LD Ryan Johnson. Smart, mobile defender who hasn’t shown offensive ability.

I listed 21 a year ago and every damned one of them was chosen. The guy I had at No. 21 (Ryan Johnson) went No. 31 overall! What a year for the USHL. Jack Hughes played in the NHL, giving us our first pure shot at a direct NHLE for the league (it’s .17).

I liked Matej Blumel, but didn’t include him on the list, he would have been in the top 25. There were 44 USHL players chosen in the 2019 draft. My list goes 125 deep, suspect all 23 names above or close make my final list.

One of the issues in ranking these players comes in figuring out why some members of the U.S. National Development Team don’t play a lot in the USHL. I don’t have Landon Slaggert ranked but he scored pretty well at even strength with the US Team outside the USHL (exhibition games). I’m guessing that he is shy offensively and have decided to exclude him. However, that’s the same reason I excluded Caleb Jones in 2015.

There’s also the matter of feeder leagues. A player like David Ma from Shattuck is about where John Marino was on his draft day and has played in the USHL. I’ve listed him here but technically he belongs to the USHS list.

I think it’s probably very important to have contacts in that program, in order to find guys like Caleb Jones. Based on math, I think the best late bet from the USHL (Round 5 or later) is David Ma. I assume this means he goes No. 31 overall.

Bouchard’s offense in his AHL rookie campaign is exceptional when placed in context. He led the Condors in assists and was tied for second in overall scoring. He also improved defensively, as I noted in my article about him for The Athletic yesterday.

POSSIBLE 2020 TOP 100 TARGETS

No. 20 overall: Jan Mysak, Seth Jarvis, Mavrik Bourque, Noel Gunler, Rodion Amirov

No. 82 overall: Brandon Coe, Alex Cotton, Theo Rochette, Helge Grans, Luke Reid

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show and some actual live sports to review! We get rolling at 10, TSN1260. Aaron Bronsteter, who is TSN’s UFC Reporter, will review a frantic weekend that was UFC 249. Does it prove live sports is back? What is the fallout, boy? We’ll find out. At 11 Jason Gregor will talk UFC, the NHL’s next step and MLB’s return. Curtis Lazar of the Buffalo Sabres will remember the Oil Kings 2014 WHL Championship and run to the Memorial Cup. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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PennersPancakes

ArmchairGM: Also, in their analysis of the 2018 draft, Bouchard effectively dropped just one spot, which is hardly significant. The 11 “NHL” players were arbitrarily ranked 1-11, with two players jumping ahead of Bouchard (Denisenko, Romanov) and one falling behind him (Kravtsov). Two minus one equals one. One place. Hardly significant.

Yeah that was lazy writing on their part. Boqvist, Sandin, Dobson all being ranked automatically higher because of GP doesnt paint the whole picture. Its a funny exercise to punish/diminish prospects based on team depth/not rushing them.

Toronto and Chicago both lack D depth and Dobson wasnt eligible to play in the AHL. So it was scratch him for half the season (he had 34GP TOTAL) and play him in the NHL or play him in junior. Hell Romanov has no real competition on the left side for a spot on Montreal, he will slot behind Mete unless they make a play for Krug or someone similar and he will have a larger adjustment from Russia than Californa.

Doing a redraft within 2 years seems like a make work project so anyone using these for a serious argument probably has other….. concerns and issues. Hughes and Dahlin are clearly better (at least at this point in time although that is a lot to catch up on) but the rest I see as a wash so taking John Carlson 2.0 doesnt seem like a bad thing.

jp

Lowetide:
New for The Athletic: How can Andreas Athanasiou — Ken Holland’s big bet — help the Oilers?

https://theathletic.com/1807211/2020/05/12/lowetide-how-can-andreas-athanasiou-ken-hollands-big-bet-help-the-oilers/

Nice article LT. Agreed that Holland acquired Athanasiou with the intention of giving him a legit chance to fit in the Oilers top 6.

One thing I was curious about though. You mentioned “Athanasiou has a slightly stronger reputation as a two-way talent” (vs Burakovsky). I wasn’t aware of any two-way reputation for AA, aside from him having the worst +/- in the league in this season. Is that just relative to Burakovsky? Does/did AA have a positive reputation as a responsible player that I’m not aware of? (this last one is really what I’m curious about I guess).

London Jon

Harpers Hair: Sure I do…but it will be close.

In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

It isn’t just me.

I’ll bet you $100 a point. Bouchard vs Rafferty over the next 5 years

ArmchairGM

Harpers Hair: Sure I do…but it will be close.

In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

It isn’t just me.

Also, in their analysis of the 2018 draft, Bouchard effectively dropped just one spot, which is hardly significant. The 11 “NHL” players were arbitrarily ranked 1-11, with two players jumping ahead of Bouchard (Denisenko, Romanov) and one falling behind him (Kravtsov). Two minus one equals one. One place. Hardly significant.

ArmchairGM

Harpers Hair: Sure I do…but it will be close.

In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

It isn’t just me.

I don’t see how that’s possible. Bouchard was taken in the 2018 draft.

JimmyV1965

Glovjuice: I tad. Ya think. Man, what an obvious ignorance of the stats on COVID-19.

What covid stats am I ignorant about? In Canada in 2018, about 900 people under 44 died in motor vehicle collisions. Another 5,000 suffered serious injuries.

Ribs

defmn: I always enjoy your posts.

Great stuff, guys. ?

Material Elvis

Scungilli Slushy: I hear you.

He’ll be proven correct in the end.

The issue is the large number of infected already aren’t currently known.

It’s common sense.

He’s not a man with a lack of experience. Either way things will go as they will. At least in most of Canada it’s not outrageous and herd immunity will happen before a vaccine almost certainly.

Good evening friends.

Even if there are 20 times the number of reported cases (70,000 in Canada), that is still only 1,400,000 people. That means 96% of the Canadian population has not been exposed. No way does herd immunity happen quickly unless all social distancing measures are eliminated. I don’t see that happening.

jp

Harpers Hair: I wonder where Artemi Panarin would go in a 2012 re-draft?

Pretty damn high I imagine. His draft year should have been 2010. Despite his late start in the NHL he’d be #6 in scoring from that draft year.

I was more referring to Rafferty having done nothing at the NHL level yet than his not being drafted (here we are after his theoretical draft +7 season). Bouchard has scored an NHL goal at least, through draft +2. And he spent time on an NHL roster this season.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: I’m not saying the Brogran Rafferty can’t have an NHL career – I’m saying that his likelihood to have one, his potential, his offensive ceiling, his value are all dwarfed by Evan Bouchard, materially dwarfed.

That’s my opinion and I think its highly defensible.

Dwarfed. ?

N64

Munny: Thank you, sir. Does seem strong.

Tier 2 has a well-established relationship with the NCAA and their scholarship program.

This seems to imply that if say Khaira, or anyone from Tier 2, had signed a contract after being drafted, all of those scholarships (and they are numerous, with NCAA schools dependent on that pipeline) would disappear in a puff of “logic”.Forever and ever.

The minute Khaira signed he would be thrown out of tier 2 to avoid that scenario.

N64

Scungilli Slushy: I hear you.

He’ll be proven correct in the end.

The issue is the large number of infected already aren’t currently known.

It’s common sense.

He’s not a man with a lack of experience. Either way things will go as they will. At least in most of Canada it’s not outrageous and herd immunity will happen before a vaccine almost certainly.

Good evening friends.

Ha. Common sense includes looking at the serology samples down with much larger sample sizes in areas where there was more disease. Hard to work with frequencies around your serology test error rates.

Not very motivational results, but those 1/2-1% IFR estimates work out to 10-20 infections for every confirmed case. That would include asymptomatic cases, ignored mild symptoms, and mild cases where testing was never provided. Cheers.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: You’re like a race horse with blinders on.

You can only see one way to an an NHL career.

Brian Rafalski was never ranked, never drafted and didn’t begin his NHL career until he was 26.

He ended up playing 833 NHL games, won three Stanley Cups and was an all star.

This after four years in NCAA just like Rafferty.

Luckily, the meat heads in the game who could only see the draft and develop model in the traditional way are pretty much gone from the game and smart teams are exploiting a long standing market inefficiency.

There are dozens of other examples.

I’m not saying the Brogran Rafferty can’t have an NHL career – I’m saying that his likelihood to have one, his potential, his offensive ceiling, his value are all dwarfed by Evan Bouchard, materially dwarfed.

That’s my opinion and I think its highly defensible.

defmn

Georges:
defmn,

That was a pleasant interaction. Thank you.

I always enjoy your posts.

Material Elvis

Harpers Hair: Sure I do…but it will be close.

In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

It isn’t just me.

The Hockey News 2014 redraft: not even close to the original draft order.
The Hockey News 2019 redraft: not much change from the original draft order.

My take away: the 2019 redraft will not look very accurate five years from now; a trivial drop in Bouchard’s ranking is meaningless at this point.

Harpers Hair

jp: I wonder where Rafferty would go in a… hmm… 2013 re-draft?

I wonder where Artemi Panarin would go in a 2012 re-draft?

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: I must have missed where The Hockey News made a prediction on Rafferty’s future production……

Where has Rafferty been ranked on lists of the top prospects outside the NHL?I must have missed him in those lists….

You’re like a race horse with blinders on.

You can only see one way to an an NHL career.

Brian Rafalski was never ranked, never drafted and didn’t begin his NHL career until he was 26.

He ended up playing 833 NHL games, won three Stanley Cups and was an all star.

This after four years in NCAA just like Rafferty.

Luckily, the meat heads in the game who could only see the draft and develop model in the traditional way are pretty much gone from the game and smart teams are exploiting a long standing market inefficiency.

There are dozens of other examples.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Sure I do…but it will be close.

In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

It isn’t just me.

I must have missed where The Hockey News made a prediction on Rafferty’s future production……

Where has Rafferty been ranked on lists of the top prospects outside the NHL? I must have missed him in those lists….

defmn

godot10: Holland was drafting Klefbom’s replacement, to insure continuity of a contending level defense, when an injury-prone 30-year old Klefbom looks for a big retirement contract.

A smooth transition from Klefbom Nurse to Broberg Nurse in three years on the left side of the D.

McDavid and Draisaitl and a solid D means consistent contending.Wingers are easy to find.D much harder.

That would be my assessment as well.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair:
MLB planning to re-open July 4 weekend.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/11/us/mlb-season-july-trnd/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

The league proposal will be present to the players association tomorrow – that’s a pretty big hurdle – hopefully they jump it!

OriginalPouzar

defmn: That was my point as well. Choosing a player in the top 10 of a draft is not where you are looking to add depth. That is where you are hoping for top end.

To be, if he proves to be real succession for our incumbent 1LD or 2LD, that is fine value for 8th overall.

Darnell Nurse himself was picked in that range and I think that is fine value there.

YMMV.

godot10

defmn: That was my point as well. Choosing a player in the top 10 of a draft is not where you are looking to add depth. That is where you are hoping for top end.

Holland was drafting Klefbom’s replacement, to insure continuity of a contending level defense, when an injury-prone 30-year old Klefbom looks for a big retirement contract.

A smooth transition from Klefbom Nurse to Broberg Nurse in three years on the left side of the D.

McDavid and Draisaitl and a solid D means consistent contending. Wingers are easy to find. D much harder.

defmn

Georges:
defmn,

In public, he said “I’m thinking playoffs” when he was hired, he said “I’m not talking rebuild. I’m talking about we’ve got to compete for a playoff spot” on the eve of the season, on Dec. 20th, he said “My goal was for us to be competitive and in the playoff hunt in March and we started well.”, on Jan. 6, he said “When you’ve got Connor McDavid, the window is now” and “I believe the window to try to be in the playoffs is now. We’re in the race.”

And at the trade deadline, he gave up picks to secure NHL players.

The stuff he was putting out for public consumption follows a pattern. It’s the pattern of a GM who expects his team to compete now, not later. He wasn’t talking up how bad a situation he inherited and how long it’ll take him to sort it out. He could’ve but he didn’t.

We may have different experience but not sure we have different information. My experience is that you can’t orchestrate a turnaround by talking out of the side of your mouth to the folks who have to see the turnaround through.

“This is exactly what I mean by a shotgun approach as opposed to aiming with a rifle. You send out a spray effect and because you have lots of opportunity you expect to hit enough targets while missing with others. I’m not sure what you think that expression means but that is what I think it means.”

You followed your shotgun comment with “That is not the approach of a GM who thinks the team is ready to contend imo.” in your original post. Which suggest you see a shotgun approach as being inconsistent with a plan to win near term. Otoh, your follow up comment says that a shotgun approach can “hit enough targets”. Which is what I was getting at. That you could do what Holland did and still expect to contend. You seem to be thinking contending is contending for the Cup. I believe Holland felt contending meant contending for a playoff spot. And he took steps that in his mind would ensure his team would do just that. The team had league best options at forward and too few options at forward, no natural 1D or even an offensive threat at D, and hot and cold tandem goaltending. So, yeah, tough to compete for the Cup unless some of that gets fixed up. Too bad the season ended, because Holland’s trade deadline deals brought in some very interesting players that could’ve addressed the team’s forward depth problems. We’ll never know.

“I really like Tippett but I am not sure what this has to do with what I wrote. It is just as easy to write that Tippett had failed to make the playoffs in Phoenix when he last coached. Are you meaning to say that hiring Tippett was a guarantee of success?”

I meant that Holland hired a coach who led two successful turnarounds. PC hired a coach who had only coached (either as an assistant or as HC) flagship franchises, never a struggling one. You’ve cited your own experience in these situations. I’m assuming you believe experience matters. I do too.

Hiring Tippett (and giving him a short leash 3 year contract) is the kind of move you make when you want to contend now, not 3-4 years from now. And, yeah, I think hiring Tippett guaranteed the team would contend for the playoffs: success if you will. The last two coaches were net negatives for this team; results under them were worse than what they should have reasonably been.

Holland points to this when he says “When you’ve got Connor McDavid, the window is now”. Because, yeah, that’s RE when you have CMD. Tippett isn’t a negative for this team. He’s coached struggling teams that had barely enough talent to compete. He seems to prefer building up his players; a favorite quote of his is put players in a position where they can succeed, another is the lovely you have to find ways to stay in a game. He seems direct, sincere, and plain spoken. And he’s been out of the league two years. A brush with coaching mortality as it were. He shows up hungry and the contract makes sure he stays hungry. Holland removed a negative and brought in a positive. More than enough to have the team contend.

Your comments on Bear, Jones, and Yams as being uncertain to be useful and important players are fair. We’ll see by the end of Tippett’s reign whether the trajectories of some of the younger players changed under his watch. I’m really not sure what the results in the AHL can tell us about results in the NHL, how much development happens down there. A lot of it might be luck and timing at the NHL level, playing for the right HC who happens to be looking for an answer to a question. And is willing to give you more than a couple of tries to come up with something. You make the right play and your confidence goes way up, you avoid getting blown up on a crucial play and instead you make the right read and do something good for your team. I mean, how different are these players anyway?

Tippett has shown a lot of commitment to Bear, even when Bear has played losing 5v5 minutes. I think the coaching staff keeps encouraging the kid to compete and make plays, and sure enough the kid does. It’s really something, because, as you’ve pointed out, neither Bear nor Jones have draft pedigree. They’re orphans from the old regime. Tippett, like honey badger, don’t care…

(The opportunity knocking bit was after the Persson injury in TC.)

In public, he said “I’m thinking playoffs” when he was hired, he said “I’m not talking rebuild. I’m talking about we’ve got to compete for a playoff spot” on the eve of the season, on Dec. 20th, he said “My goal was for us to be competitive and in the playoff hunt in March and we started well.”, on Jan. 6, he said “When you’ve got Connor McDavid, the window is now” and “I believe the window to try to be in the playoffs is now. We’re in the race.”

All true but I don’t know of one single GM or HC who would say anything different in the same situation. As far as I know this is standard new hire commentary. That’s all.

“And at the trade deadline, he gave up picks to secure NHL players.”

Agreed. But that doesn’t say anything about his expectations going into the draft last summer which is what the Broberg pick was about. The team did really well this year. I think better than Holland expected. You think he expected the team to do this well. But the additions at the deadline were based upon what they did as opposed to anything else I would think.

The stuff he was putting out for public consumption follows a pattern. It’s the pattern of a GM who expects his team to compete now, not later. He wasn’t talking up how bad a situation he inherited and how long it’ll take him to sort it out. He could’ve but he didn’t.

“We may have different experience but not sure we have different information. My experience is that you can’t orchestrate a turnaround by talking out of the side of your mouth to the folks who have to see the turnaround through.”

Again. Every GM does this. Or at least every successful GM does this. GM’s have two jobs. To put a winning team together and to put bums in the seats for his owner so he can make money. Presenting a positive outlook is part of both of those jobs imo.

“You followed your shotgun comment with “That is not the approach of a GM who thinks the team is ready to contend imo.” in your original post. Which suggest you see a shotgun approach as being inconsistent with a plan to win near term. Otoh, your follow up comment says that a shotgun approach can “hit enough targets”. Which is what I was getting at. That you could do what Holland did and still expect to contend. You seem to be thinking contending is contending for the Cup. I believe Holland felt contending meant contending for a playoff spot. And he took steps that in his mind would ensure his team would do just that. The team had league best options at forward and too few options at forward, no natural 1D or even an offensive threat at D, and hot and cold tandem goaltending. So, yeah, tough to compete for the Cup unless some of that gets fixed up. Too bad the season ended, because Holland’s trade deadline deals brought in some very interesting players that could’ve addressed the team’s forward depth problems. We’ll never know.”

You are correct. I see “contending” as for the Cup rather than for a playoff first round exit. The “shotgun” comment was not meant in a pejorative way. He did exactly the right thing imo. He had holes everywhere in the bottom six – at least – and so rather than using one bullet to target a particular spot – as many here wanted in the form of a top 6 winger – he sprayed his ammunition like a shotgun does so that he could hit many more targets hoping some of them would work. And they did. Just like he wanted. But a GM of a contending team doesn’t do that because a contending team doesn’t have a bunch of holes in the lineup. He takes aim at one or maybe two players. He uses a rifle rather than a shotgun approach with a narrower focus.

“I meant that Holland hired a coach who led two successful turnarounds. PC hired a coach who had only coached (either as an assistant or as HC) flagship franchises, never a struggling one. You’ve cited your own experience in these situations. I’m assuming you believe experience matters. I do too.

Hiring Tippett (and giving him a short leash 3 year contract) is the kind of move you make when you want to contend now, not 3-4 years from now. And, yeah, I think hiring Tippett guaranteed the team would contend for the playoffs: success if you will. The last two coaches were net negatives for this team; results under them were worse than what they should have reasonably been.”

Fair enough and as I said I really liked the Tippett hire the moment I heard of it. I just think there were a lot of holes in the top 12 core positions and that filling more than two of those holes in any one season is usually as much as can be hoped for. Many teams don’t move forward by even one core position per season. This is why I find it remarkable that a) the goalies worked reasonably well b) three kids from Bakersfield cam in and performed at a high level, c) the shotgun fixed the PK and fourth line pretty well d) chemistry with Nuge-Leon-Yamomoto was almost instantaneous. It’s not surprising to me that some of these things worked. It is surprising to me that they all did.

“Holland points to this when he says “When you’ve got Connor McDavid, the window is now”. Because, yeah, that’s RE when you have CMD. Tippett isn’t a negative for this team. He’s coached struggling teams that had barely enough talent to compete. He seems to prefer building up his players; a favorite quote of his is put players in a position where they can succeed, another is the lovely you have to find ways to stay in a game. He seems direct, sincere, and plain spoken. And he’s been out of the league two years. A brush with coaching mortality as it were. He shows up hungry and the contract makes sure he stays hungry. Holland removed a negative and brought in a positive. More than enough to have the team contend.”

Totally agree. The coaching has been a joy to watch.

“(The opportunity knocking bit was after the Persson injury in TC.)”

My mistake. Old memory. I knew it was the result of an injury and thought it was Larsson’s.

Munny

I’m not saying Wesley went full Steve Smith there, but he went full Steve Smith there.

Worse actually, as he took two cracks at his own net.

jp

Harpers Hair: Sure I do…but it will be close.

In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

It isn’t just me.

I wonder where Rafferty would go in a… hmm… 2013 re-draft?

Munny

N64:
Munny,

Straight from the NCAA college hockey page:

“Because the CHL includes players who have signed professional contracts, the NCAA considers it a professional league. Therefore, players who have played a game – even an exhibition game – in the CHL are deemed ineligible for NCAA competition.”

There you go. One signed player (overage or otherwise) and the whole CHL is a no go zone. This is what I was emphasizing. I’ve heard the stipend thing could be fixed more easily.

update: This type of language seems extreme. But it has roots that go all the way back to Eastern Canada’s “Hockey Wars”. Anyone with a copy of “A Great Game: The Forgotten Leafs and the Rise of Professional Hockey” might be able to give us the exact history.

Thank you, sir. Does seem strong.

Tier 2 has a well-established relationship with the NCAA and their scholarship program.

This seems to imply that if say Khaira, or anyone from Tier 2, had signed a contract after being drafted, all of those scholarships (and they are numerous, with NCAA schools dependent on that pipeline) would disappear in a puff of “logic”. Forever and ever.

Harpers Hair

jp: You don’t need to be silly. There’s no way you believe Rafferty is going to score as many NHL points over the next 5 years (say) than Bouchard.

Sure I do…but it will be close.

In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

It isn’t just me.

Harpers Hair
jp

JimmyV1965: My comment is probably a tad bit hyperbolic. Nothing about covid can be said with any certainty because testing has been atrocious and the lack of information two months out is miserable.

I guess the point I’m making is that life has inherent risk. At some point you have to accept the risk, make smart decisions and move forward. Canada has 5,000 deaths right now. I would say a handful of those are amongst the 18-44 year old group, with no underlying health conditions. We’ve probably had more people in that age range die from motor vehicles during that time.

Maybe I’m wrong about concussions. But NHL players take a risk every time they lace up.

Sure, players take risks to play. Definitely a hyperbolic statement though and pretty bold if you’re acknowledging not much about Covid is known with certainty.

defmn

OriginalPouzar:
I’m not sure that “depth” is the word I would use for the Broberg pick in this conversation but more about succession and sustainability.

That was my point as well. Choosing a player in the top 10 of a draft is not where you are looking to add depth. That is where you are hoping for top end.

jp

Harpers Hair: Interesting that NHL teams will be able to run a 30 man roster if, as proposed, the league tries to stage a playoff tournament as referenced in the AHL story posted above.
Who do the Oilers call up?

I posted this a few days ago.

How about an Oilers 28-man roster for the remainder of this season, if they return? Seems like a reasonable guess on how the season/playoffs might roll out. (or maybe 30?)

Athanasiou-McDavid-Kassian
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Ennis-Sheahan-Archibald
Neal-Khaira-Chiasson
Nygard-Haas-Russell
Benson-Granlund

Nurse-Bear
Klefbom-Larsson
Jones-Green
Russell-Benning
Lagesson-Bouchard

Koskinen-Smith
Skinner

That’s 30. Would be tough to pare it down to 28 actually.

OriginalPouzar

jp: You don’t need to be silly. There’s no way you believe Rafferty is going to score as many NHL points over the next 5 years (say) than Bouchard.

He’s already stated that he wouldn’t trade Rafferty straight up for any of Bouchard, Klefbom or Bear.

Extrapolate from that what you will.

jp

Glovjuice: There is no way a contact sport can be played in a way to make the players “as safe as the rest of us”. Impossible. Even with those wacky ideas circulating today.

Regular testing and/or quarantine of the player pool could keep the players safer than the rest of us.

jp

Harpers Hair: If both have the potential to be second pairing D who put up points…there you go.

I know you think he’s the next Bobby Orr..but he isn’t.

You don’t need to be silly. There’s no way you believe Rafferty is going to score as many NHL points over the next 5 years (say) than Bouchard.

Scungilli Slushy

N64: The smallest problem is the sample size of 100.

“One of the reasons for [Giesecke’s]confidence is a new coronavirus test that has been performed on blood donors in the Stockholm region. It showed that at least 11 out of 100 have developed antibodies”.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/21/sweden-600000-coronavirus-infections-in-stockholm-by-may-1-model-estimates/#548c3d1478d6

Now blood banks are a neat place to go back to find blood donated for the usual reasons to see the antibody levels. A larger study in the Netherlands estimated IFT .81%

But what would we do if our small sample included an unknown number of contributions to the blood bankspecifically made by recovered patients to make antibody serum?

Of course we would do what Giesecke’s Institute did the very next day. We’d retract the paper.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/22/sweden-health-agency-withdraws-controversial-coronavirus-report/#7cdac8414349

I hear you.

He’ll be proven correct in the end.

The issue is the large number of infected already aren’t currently known.

It’s common sense.

He’s not a man with a lack of experience. Either way things will go as they will. At least in most of Canada it’s not outrageous and herd immunity will happen before a vaccine almost certainly.

Good evening friends.

Glovjuice

defmn: How I see it as well. The $12.5 price tag for Connor means he has to be able to make guys like Kassian and AA viable line mates.

Yeah, agreed. McDavid will end up being the highest paid player in the league for a decade straight when its all said and done and needs to deliver like Crosby has in this regard with respect to shit wingers. Or, will Petrilangelo eclipse McDavid in salary?

Glovjuice

JimmyV1965: My comment is probably a tad bit hyperbolic. Nothing about covid can be said with any certainty because testing has been atrocious and the lack of information two months out is miserable.

I guess the point I’m making is that life has inherent risk.At some point you have to accept the risk, make smart decisions and move forward. Canada has 5,000 deaths right now. I would say a handful of those are amongst the 18-44 year old group, with no underlying health conditions. We’ve probably had more people in that age range die from motor vehicles during that time.

Maybe I’m wrong about concussions. But NHL players take a risk every time they lace up.

I tad. Ya think. Man, what an obvious ignorance of the stats on COVID-19.

Harpers Hair

Harpers Hair:

If both have the potential to be second pairing D who put up points…there you go.

I know you think he’s the next Bobby Orr..but he isn’t.

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: I agree that d-men generally hit their prime around 25-26 and there is nothing wrong with adding a player that’s a bit older.

At the same time, you are a person that likes to say “good d-men show themselves early” so……

Given d-men hit their prime at 25-26, its even MORE impressive what Bouchard did at 20 – just wow.

LT sees Bouchard’s potential as a 2nd pairing PP guy but, in the same article, Willis sees him as a top pairing – interesting choice of which option to present.

Of course, noone projects Rafferty to have anywhere near the ceiling of Bouchard as an NHL player or as an offensive producer. Well, maybe one person does.

Glovjuice

defmn: I still think that Holland’s assessment of the team when he became GM was that it was 3-4 years away from competing and that, to some extent, played into his decision to start at the back end.

This explains the timing better.

Looking back to last summer when he was making his decision I don’t think there was any suggestion that Jones, Yamomoto, or Bear would make substantial contributions to the team this season or any season in the future.

There was still lots of talk that Draisaitl was a product of playing with McDavid which you still heard for the first half of this season from a lot of eastern media. Larsson had had two seasons in a row that were less than expected.

Lucic was a boat anchor of a contract.

Just look at how he proceeded with his signings. It was a real shotgun approach with more players than spots on the team and most of the contracts could be buried in the AHL if they didn’t work out.

That is not the approach of a GM who thinks the team is ready to contend imo.

So I think Holland was surprised at the success that the team had this year. I think he thought he had three or four years to get this team in shape and the first order of business was to build the back end.

Then Jones and Bear surprised him. Draisaitl was finally slotted into the spot he had to claim in order for this team to succeed.Koskinen provided goal tending above what many expected.

Its easy to see why Holland would think the team needed 3-4 years to recover from the previous 3-4 years of decisions.

Can you imagine? 3-4 STILL? This is then EIGHT years after McDavid was drafted (maybe 7 but STILL) until the Oilers will finally be considered contenders by their GM. Incredible, really, when you think hard about it. Almost like thinking that the Big Bang or God are anything but absurd.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Defensemen usually hit their prime at 25-26 years of age,

Nothing wrong with adding a player entering his prime.

Projecting straight line development for young players is folly.

Many of them, and we’ve seen this with more than a few Oiler players, get one years experience five times.

In his most recent look at Bouchard at the Athletic, LT suggested Bouchards upside is secondpairing and that’s what I’ve said all along.

Rafferty and Priskie both have that upside too…it’ll just be sooner.

I agree that d-men generally hit their prime around 25-26 and there is nothing wrong with adding a player that’s a bit older.

At the same time, you are a person that likes to say “good d-men show themselves early” so……

Given d-men hit their prime at 25-26, its even MORE impressive what Bouchard did at 20 – just wow.

LT sees Bouchard’s potential as a 2nd pairing PP guy but, in the same article, Willis sees him as a top pairing – interesting choice of which option to present.

Of course, noone projects Rafferty to have anywhere near the ceiling of Bouchard as an NHL player or as an offensive producer. Well, maybe one person does.

godot10

OriginalPouzar: One forgot one Caleb Jones that performed admirably in a decent sample size as 2LD in Klefbom’s absence this year.

The potential to move on from Nurse in a year (for cap space and for value return) is essentially contingent on Jones’ development this year (and, potentially, Samorukov’s development).

Jones has, in my opinion, solidified himself as an every day NHL d-man and has shown the potential to do so at a top 4 – he’s not there as a top 4 but he may be in a year.If he is, $850K……

Klefbom and Nurse are irreplaceable for two more full seasons. Arguably Nurse for longer, because he brings some unique capabilities.

The Nurse haters came out of lockdown today.

Glovjuice

jtblack: more to your point LT.CoVID-19 is not going to go away in July or October or 2021. It will be here for a while.even once a vaccine comes along, there are no gurantees covid will be irradicated.

So I think countries have to learn to manage with Covid as part of the culture. Individuals will have to act to whatever degree of risk they choose.More vulnerable groups may not venture our much at all, which others may live fairly normal lives.

I don’t see large gatherings being allowed anytime soon. So doubt going to a game would be an option.

Interesting times. Safety does matter, but life has to find a way to move forward or the collateral damage will be far worse than the virus itself.Does that mean NHL hockey will be played? Don’t know. But I think there is a way they can play NHL hockey and keep players and staff as safe as the rest of us.

There is no way a contact sport can be played in a way to make the players “as safe as the rest of us”. Impossible. Even with those wacky ideas circulating today.

OriginalPouzar

OriginalPouzar:
MLB owners to vote on a plan that would require at least 48% of revenues to go to the players.

Its like they are moving towards a 50% revenue share scenario, ala the NHL.

Sounds like the players will reject as “revenue sharing is essentially a salary cap”

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1259957402377617418

N64

Munny,

Straight from the NCAA college hockey page:

“Because the CHL includes players who have signed professional contracts, the NCAA considers it a professional league. Therefore, players who have played a game – even an exhibition game – in the CHL are deemed ineligible for NCAA competition.”

There you go. One signed player (overage or otherwise) and the whole CHL is a no go zone. This is what I was emphasizing. I’ve heard the stipend thing could be fixed more easily.

update: This type of language seems extreme. But it has roots that go all the way back to Eastern Canada’s “Hockey Wars”. Anyone with a copy of “A Great Game: The Forgotten Leafs and the Rise of Professional Hockey” might be able to give us the exact history.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: Without delving deeply into it, I have the general sense that NCAA hockey is increasing its role in developing NHL players.

This may be driven from the bottom as the USHL has really upped the ante.

While the development process takes longer, it’s turning outmany NHL ready players.

There is a benefit of drafting players going the college route – much more runway to sign them and, as you mention, they can be developed for longer outside of being signed and playing pro hockey.

Harpers Hair

Everything you didn’t want know about a Brogan Rafferty.

https://canucksarmy.com/2020/05/11/raff/

OriginalPouzar

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– Has the CMD interview on in the background: so boring.

– I mean they tried hard but CMD is just not comfortable in these things and/or had the media training to not say much.

– Plus doesn’t watch hockey hasn’t watch the old time stuff no hobbies no comment when talking about his team. Nothing insightful or personal.No observations

– He’s a very humble guy on camera.

He was a bit better on Spittin’ Chiclets last week.

OriginalPouzar

jtblack:
OriginalPouzar,

“Once it starts to effect the potential of a complete 82 game 2020/21”

why is the 82 games important?I have seen this from a few ppl.

it does not matter to me, I am curious why it does to others …

I am happy with a 48 game season, 64 games, 70 games, 82 games …. all would be fine with me for 2020/21

It matters to the league and they have stated that from the very beginning.

Of course, positions and stances change over time with circumstances but, at the very beginning, the league was very clear that having a full and complete 82 game schedule was paramount over finishing the current season.

They may have softened on that position with the potential that 82 games with fans may not be a realistic option but that would be the goal.

Of course, this is revenue driven and that makes sense.

I care about how many games. Of course, if they can only do 48 for safety reasons then I will accept that but I would prefer as much of a “normal season” as possible and the league would as well (me as a fan and the league for revenues – which effects the game, contract, the CBA, the cap, etc.).