Fly Like an Eagle

I was convinced the Edmonton Oilers and new general manager Ken Holland would harvest two or three USHL players at the 2019 draft. The US National Team played in the alley behind his house! He must have known these young players front to back and back to front again.

I wrote the following about Trevor Zegras, who was available when Edmonton stepped to the podium: “Undersized and highly skilled, elusive and aggressive with very good speed. I think he’s a Ken Holland type.” Holland kept his powder dry on the USHL kids until pick No. 100. Pretty good poker player, that Ken Holland.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

USHL 2020 TOP PLAYERS

  1. LD Jake Sanderson. Smart player, incredible skater and has complete skill set.
  2. LC Ty Smilanic. Scouting report talks about plus skating and finding another gear.
  3. RW Sam Colangelo. Big power winger with skill, scored 28 goals in 44 games.
  4. LC Thomas Bordeleau. Owns a great shot and is highly skilled with the puck.
  5. LW Brendan Brisson. Undersized speedster has lots of talent, good skater.
  6. RW Daniil Gushchin. Small, speedy playmaking forward. Good numbers.
  7. LW Sean Farrell. A good skater with plus skills, he is posting strong numbers this season.
  8. LW Luke Tuch. Alex Tuch’s brother, plays a similar style. Numbers are good not great.
  9. LW Brett Berard. Small skill winger with good hands, he scored seven goals in 13 games.
  10. LD Tyler Kleven. A big shutdown defenseman (6.04, 201) with good speed. 
  11. LC Cameron Berg. Good speed and skill, scored 18 goals in 30 games.
  12. RC Colby Ambrosio. Speedster, very skilled, I love his resume. Just 5.08, he’s a bullet.
  13. RD Eamon Powell. Impressive skater can move the puck effectively
  14. LD Dave Ma. Tremendous skater and very creative.
  15. LW Alex Laferriere. Great shot, good passer, creative player. Skating the concern.
  16. LD Mitch Miller. Fine skater, has two-way skills.
  17. LW Carson Bantle. Big winger, has skill, average skater, lots of primary points.
  18. LD Jacob Truscott. Offensive defenseman who has some edge to his game.
  19. RD Luke Reid. Good speed and can move the puck.
  20. G Drew Commesso. Good size, thrived wherever he played in 2019-20. Big step forward.
  21. RD Noah Ellis. Big blue impressed at Hlinka.
  22. LC Ryan Kirwan. Haven’t read about him, just know he can score goals.
  23. LD Christian Jiminez. Offensive defenseman.

Several quality talents here, I’m impressed by Colangelo, Brisson, Farrell and Powell. I don’t know why Holland avoided the USHL kids last season, so will be cautious in projecting draft picks from this league for Edmonton. Since 2000, Matt Greene, Jeff Petry and Caleb Jones have been procured from the USHL so it’s worth mining.

USHL IN 2019

  1. LC Jack Hughes. He’s a rocket who can make hockey plays at peak speed consistently.
  2. LC Alex Turcotte. A strong two-way reputation, he is skilled and an excellent skater.
  3. LC Trevor Zegras. Highly skilled, elusive and aggressive with very good speed.
  4. R Cole Caufield. He’s small, fast and a ridiculous scorer. Quick release, accurate.
  5. LD Cam York. Impact puck mover out of the USHL, great speed, passing and creativity.
  6. L Matthew Boldy. Bigger winger with skill, he’s strong on the puck and can score goals.
  7. R Bobby Brink. Small, fast and very skilled, he’s an intelligent player with great vision.
  8. L Egor Afanasyev. He’s a big forward with a powerful stride and an excellent shot.
  9. G Spencer Knight. A .929 save percentage and a mountain of positive scouting reports
  10. L Robert Mastrosimone. Skill winger.
  11. L Vladislav Firstov. Skill winger has a plus shot and delivered impressive results.
  12. RD Drew Helleson. Impressive puck moving defender.
  13. LD Henry Thrun. He’s a two-way defender who delivered sold offense (23 points in 28 games).
  14. RC Shane Pinto. Big RHC intriguing because of his size (6.02, 192) and scoring prowess.
  15. LC John Beecher. Center with good size and two-way ability.
  16. LD Alex Vlasic. Big defender who will make his living on the defensive side of the puck.
  17. R Judd Caulfield. He’s a power forward.
  18. L Marcus Kallionkieli. He scored 29 goals in 58 games, that’s excellent production.
  19. LC Matias Maccelli. Lots of skill, was dominant (62, 31-41-72) offensively.
  20. RD Ronnie Attard. He’s a 1999. Still, he’s a giant with a bomb for a shot and that has appeal.
  21. LD Ryan Johnson. Smart, mobile defender who hasn’t shown offensive ability.

I listed 21 a year ago and every damned one of them was chosen. The guy I had at No. 21 (Ryan Johnson) went No. 31 overall! What a year for the USHL. Jack Hughes played in the NHL, giving us our first pure shot at a direct NHLE for the league (it’s .17).

I liked Matej Blumel, but didn’t include him on the list, he would have been in the top 25. There were 44 USHL players chosen in the 2019 draft. My list goes 125 deep, suspect all 23 names above or close make my final list.

One of the issues in ranking these players comes in figuring out why some members of the U.S. National Development Team don’t play a lot in the USHL. I don’t have Landon Slaggert ranked but he scored pretty well at even strength with the US Team outside the USHL (exhibition games). I’m guessing that he is shy offensively and have decided to exclude him. However, that’s the same reason I excluded Caleb Jones in 2015.

There’s also the matter of feeder leagues. A player like David Ma from Shattuck is about where John Marino was on his draft day and has played in the USHL. I’ve listed him here but technically he belongs to the USHS list.

I think it’s probably very important to have contacts in that program, in order to find guys like Caleb Jones. Based on math, I think the best late bet from the USHL (Round 5 or later) is David Ma. I assume this means he goes No. 31 overall.

Bouchard’s offense in his AHL rookie campaign is exceptional when placed in context. He led the Condors in assists and was tied for second in overall scoring. He also improved defensively, as I noted in my article about him for The Athletic yesterday.

POSSIBLE 2020 TOP 100 TARGETS

No. 20 overall: Jan Mysak, Seth Jarvis, Mavrik Bourque, Noel Gunler, Rodion Amirov

No. 82 overall: Brandon Coe, Alex Cotton, Theo Rochette, Helge Grans, Luke Reid

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show and some actual live sports to review! We get rolling at 10, TSN1260. Aaron Bronsteter, who is TSN’s UFC Reporter, will review a frantic weekend that was UFC 249. Does it prove live sports is back? What is the fallout, boy? We’ll find out. At 11 Jason Gregor will talk UFC, the NHL’s next step and MLB’s return. Curtis Lazar of the Buffalo Sabres will remember the Oil Kings 2014 WHL Championship and run to the Memorial Cup. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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160 Responses to "Fly Like an Eagle"

  1. Ben says:

    YMMV, but I’m ready to move on from this season, regardless of whatever logistical mountains might be moved to get to playoffs. For me, enough time has elapsed that there’s a full break in the season’s labour and narrative.

    I think the NHL should worry a lot more about whether they’ll be able to cobble together a season next year than finish this one off. Hope they call it soon.

  2. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Ben:
    YMMV, but I’m ready to move on from this season, regardless of whatever logistical mountains might be moved to get to playoffs. For me, enough time has elapsed that there’s a full break in the season’s labour and narrative.

    I think the NHL should worry a lot more about whether they’ll be able to cobble together a season next year than finish this one off. Hope they call it soon.

    I’m warming up to this idea too. They’ve been off for almost 2 months now. My concern is the possibility of a player somewhere contracting it and the panic that will ensue. They should be focusing on coming out on the other side of this. It would also address all the concerns about the draft date, contracts, etc.

  3. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Smilinac and Brisson were the top 2 on my radar, but Bedard was close, while Colangelo also generating a lot of buzz more recently.

    A value depth pick, but he dropped like a rock this season while being touted as a 1st round talent was 6’4″ Dylan Peterson. He has NHL bloodlines, is a great skater and can stickhandle in a phone booth (the kind with doors), but his offense was underwhelming.

    I am sure some team with lots of bullets willl be thinking to grab him too early, maybe even in the 2nd, but if not he could be an excellent value in the 4th or 5 the Round. Would be nice to have more bullets….

    I wonder if they decide to expand to 10 Rounds this year and the next draft, if no one (every league but the NHL) plays hockey next year

  4. Lowetide says:

    I’m fine either way. I understand the NHL is looking at $1 billion in losses and if teams and players agree to come back then it’s all good in my mind. If it comes to a point where canceling is the only option then it’s all good then, too. Rational thought must carry the day. Risk is involved, but it’ll be involved in October too.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    MLB owners to vote on a plan that would require at least 48% of revenues to go to the players.

    Its like they are moving towards a 50% revenue share scenario, ala the NHL.

  6. jtblack says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: I’m warming up to this idea too.They’ve been off for almost 2 months now.My concern is the possibility of a player somewhere contracting it and the panic that will ensue.They should be focusing on coming out on the other side of this.It would also address all the concerns about the draft date, contracts, etc.

    I am on the other side. I would like to see some type of tournament to award a team with the Stanley Cup for 19/20.

    I am open to any ideas but would like to see something like this.

    – Start with 24 teams. Play in best of 3 series or something and it get down to 8 teams.
    – Once at 8 teams, just run best of 5 or 7.
    – Then Conference Final and Stanley Cup best of 7.

    They do not need fans. It’s a unique time in history, so they are going to have to come up with a unique way to have the playoffs.

    Whole thing should not take more than 2 months. Goal would be to have the Cup completed by Sep.15th …

    take a 2 – 3 week break and then start the next season in October, which would be “normal”.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Great stat on Bouchard.

    What are the ages of the 2 rookie d-men that finished with more points?

    I imagine one is Rafferty who is 24.

  8. Darth Tu says:

    Lowetide:
    I’m fine either way. I understand the NHL is looking at $1 billion in losses and if teams and players agree to come back then it’s all good in my mind. If it comes to a point where canceling is the only option then it’s all good then, too. Rational thought must carry the day. Risk is involved, but it’ll be involved in October too.

    I’m very much in the can it for this year camp. It’s a shame seeing as we were looking at playoffs, and a real shot at making the WCF.

    Let’s see how we look at the start of September for training camps – if it’s still not looking good, postpone till January and run an abbreviated season.

  9. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Great stat on Bouchard.

    What are the ages of the 2 rookie d-men that finished with more points?

    I imagine one is Rafferty who is 24.

    And the second coming of Coffey.

  10. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Great stat on Bouchard.

    What are the ages of the 2 rookie d-men that finished with more points?

    I imagine one is Rafferty who is 24.

    Joey Keane
    Charlotte Checkers
    Position: D
    6-0 / 187lbs
    Shoots: R
    Birthdate: 1999-07-02

    One more point than Bouchard in 4 more games. Played for Charlotte and Hartford during the season.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    It was a surprise that Holland didn’t select one of the high end skill forwards out of the USHL program last year. It would have been such an “easy choice” for Holland to grab one given the team need for skilled forwards (and the fact that they arrive faster than d-men, generally) and also given he was so close to those guys and, from accounts, was able to scout them to a fairly large degree last year.

    At the same time, I take solace in the above. Maybe its “smartest man in the room” syndrome but, then again, maybe he is the smartest man in the room.

    As an aside, what a run the USHL is on recently – they are turning out high end players at an great clip lately.

  12. jtblack says:

    Lowetide:
    I’m fine either way. I understand the NHL is looking at $1 billion in losses and if teams and players agree to come back then it’s all good in my mind. If it comes to a point where canceling is the only option then it’s all good then, too. Rational thought must carry the day. Risk is involved, but it’ll be involved in October too.

    more to your point LT. CoVID-19 is not going to go away in July or October or 2021. It will be here for a while. even once a vaccine comes along, there are no gurantees covid will be irradicated.

    So I think countries have to learn to manage with Covid as part of the culture. Individuals will have to act to whatever degree of risk they choose. More vulnerable groups may not venture our much at all, which others may live fairly normal lives.

    I don’t see large gatherings being allowed anytime soon. So doubt going to a game would be an option.

    Interesting times. Safety does matter, but life has to find a way to move forward or the collateral damage will be far worse than the virus itself. Does that mean NHL hockey will be played? Don’t know. But I think there is a way they can play NHL hockey and keep players and staff as safe as the rest of us.

  13. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    When Holland passed on the USNDTP kids, I took it as an indictment of the players and not the manager. Kenny’s long term game is strong.

    To be fair, I wanted Krebs. So Broberg was a bit of a surprise, telegraphing via the MSM aside. But I was willing to trust Kenny’d seen the kids enough to know what he was(n’t) selecting when he passed over the US kids like Zegras and Caulfield.

  14. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    It was a surprise that Holland didn’t select one of the high end skill forwards out of the USHL program last year. It would have been such an “easy choice” for Holland to grab one given the team need for skilled forwards (and the fact that they arrive faster than d-men, generally) and also given he was so close to those guys and, from accounts, was able to scout them to a fairly large degree last year.

    At the same time, I take solace in the above. Maybe its “smartest man in the room” syndrome but, then again, maybe he is the smartest man in the room.

    As an aside, what a run the USHL is on recently – they are turning out high end players at an great clip lately.

    I still think that Holland’s assessment of the team when he became GM was that it was 3-4 years away from competing and that, to some extent, played into his decision to start at the back end.

    This explains the timing better.

    Looking back to last summer when he was making his decision I don’t think there was any suggestion that Jones, Yamomoto, or Bear would make substantial contributions to the team this season or any season in the future.

    There was still lots of talk that Draisaitl was a product of playing with McDavid which you still heard for the first half of this season from a lot of eastern media. Larsson had had two seasons in a row that were less than expected.

    Lucic was a boat anchor of a contract.

    Just look at how he proceeded with his signings. It was a real shotgun approach with more players than spots on the team and most of the contracts could be buried in the AHL if they didn’t work out.

    That is not the approach of a GM who thinks the team is ready to contend imo.

    So I think Holland was surprised at the success that the team had this year. I think he thought he had three or four years to get this team in shape and the first order of business was to build the back end.

    Then Jones and Bear surprised him. Draisaitl was finally slotted into the spot he had to claim in order for this team to succeed. Koskinen provided goal tending above what many expected.

    Its easy to see why Holland would think the team needed 3-4 years to recover from the previous 3-4 years of decisions.

  15. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Do we have an idea of the ceiling for Blumel, etc?

    Early days for sure, but it would be nice to suss out the types of late round picks Old Dutch is going for when anticipating the upcoming draft.

  16. PennersPancakes says:

    defmn: Joey Keane
    Charlotte Checkers
    Position: D
    6-0 / 187lbs
    Shoots: R
    Birthdate: 1999-07-02

    One more point than Bouchard in 4 more games. Played for Charlotte and Hartford during the season.

    GPG for the 3 teams the 2 other dmen player for and Bakersfield:
    – Utica – 3.44
    – Charlotte – 3.31
    – Hartford – 2.76
    – Bakersfield – 2.89

    Hartford is by far the lowest but also had an impressive GA leaving them in 4/8 in their division. Bakersfield had a rough season for a multitude of reasons and was 6/7.

    Our favorite Norris Trophy candidate had about 4 more years of experience and the strongest offense of all the teams.

    This quick look didnt make me think any less of Bouchard but rather a bit more of Joey Keane. Funnily enough both prospects ended up playing their last junior season together on the London Knights. Drafted in the 3rd round of 2018 by the New York Rangers the right shot dman has made an immediate impact in the AHL. His Dobber scouting report has his ceiling as a 4th or 5th dman but his rookie AHL season was more impressive than any CHL season he has had so far.

    Unfortunate for him he was drafted by the Rangers with a strong/young right side of Trouba, Deangelo, and Fox. Thankfully he was traded, unfortunate again since it was to the Hurricanes who have Slavi, Skjei, and Hamilton. Random player but one I am interested to see progress.

  17. PennersPancakes says:

    defmn,

    I was skeptical of the Broberg pick in real time but have grown to love it. Doesnt seem like an unreasonable reach even with the talent still on the board and while the Oilers definitely need forwards they wont need defense moving forward.

    With the Oilers having Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Bear, Jones as the current core and Broberg, Bouchard, Samorukov coming things are looking good. Even the lesser players such as Laggesson, Berglund and Niemelainen can provide cheap 3rd pairing talent if needed.

    Its my guess that Holland saw an opportunity to get the defense sorted out for the future since their development takes a bit longer than forwards. If Holland goes with a defensmen with the 1st round pick this year that will start to confuse me (unless something crazy like Drysdale slipping of course)

  18. godot10 says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: I’m warming up to this idea too.They’ve been off for almost 2 months now.My concern is the possibility of a player somewhere contracting it and the panic that will ensue.They should be focusing on coming out on the other side of this.It would also address all the concerns about the draft date, contracts, etc.

    The virus isn’t going anywhere. Treatments and/or a vaccine are unlikely. There are NO human corona vaccines. Zero. Respiratory viruses are notoriously hard to find vaccines for.

    Might as well start to find a way to operate by putting some sort of end on this season. So one has experience for next season.

    For a healthy twenty something year old hockey player, career concussion risk is probably greater than the risk from the virus.

    Things are not going back to normal.

    This, everywhere, is about learning how to function and lessen risk with the virus circulating.

  19. Hitman77 says:

    I was surprised that Holland did not take a forward with his first pick in 2019. Okay, I was really disappointed to be honest. I was hoping for a one shot killer like Caufield or explosively fast center in Newhook.

    From what I hear about Broberg, he was arguably the best skating d-man in his draft but perhaps lacking in hockey IQ. Just hope he doesn’t turn out like another one of our lower hockey IQ picks, Jesse.

  20. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Great stat on Bouchard.

    What are the ages of the 2 rookie d-men that finished with more points?

    I imagine one is Rafferty who is 24.

    defmn: Joey Keane
    Charlotte Checkers
    Position: D
    6-0 / 187lbs
    Shoots: R
    Birthdate: 1999-07-02

    One more point than Bouchard in 4 more games. Played for Charlotte and Hartford during the season.

    All 3 are RD, huh.

  21. Harpers Hair says:

    PennersPancakes: GPG for the 3 teams the 2 other dmen player for and Bakersfield:
    – Utica – 3.44
    – Charlotte – 3.31
    – Hartford – 2.76
    – Bakersfield – 2.89

    Hartford is by far the lowest but also had an impressive GA leaving them in 4/8 in their division. Bakersfield had a rough season for a multitude of reasons and was 6/7.

    Our favorite Norris Trophy candidate had about 4 more years of experience and the strongest offense of all the teams.

    This quick look didnt make me think any less of Bouchard but rather a bit more of Joey Keane. Funnily enough both prospects ended up playing their last junior season together on the London Knights. Drafted in the 3rd round of 2018 by the New York Rangers the right shot dman has made an immediate impact in the AHL. His Dobber scouting report has his ceiling as a 4th or 5th dman but his rookie AHL season was more impressive than any CHL season he has had so far.

    Unfortunate for him he was drafted by the Rangers with a strong/young right side of Trouba, Deangelo, and Fox. Thankfully he was traded, unfortunate again since it was to the Hurricanes who have Slavi, Skjei, and Hamilton. Random player but one I am interested to see progress.

    Another player of note in the same ballpark is 2016 sixth round pick Chase Priskie who was Rafferty’s teammate at Quinnipiac.
    Now in the STL system.

  22. Darth Tu says:

    PennersPancakes: GPG for the 3 teams the 2 other dmen player for and Bakersfield:
    – Utica – 3.44
    – Charlotte – 3.31
    – Hartford – 2.76
    – Bakersfield – 2.89

    Hartford is by far the lowest but also had an impressive GA leaving them in 4/8 in their division. Bakersfield had a rough season for a multitude of reasons and was 6/7.

    Our favorite Norris Trophy candidate had about 4 more years of experience and the strongest offense of all the teams.

    This quick look didnt make me think any less of Bouchard but rather a bit more of Joey Keane. Funnily enough both prospects ended up playing their last junior season together on the London Knights. Drafted in the 3rd round of 2018 by the New York Rangers the right shot dman has made an immediate impact in the AHL. His Dobber scouting report has his ceiling as a 4th or 5th dman but his rookie AHL season was more impressive than any CHL season he has had so far.

    Unfortunate for him he was drafted by the Rangers with a strong/young right side of Trouba, Deangelo, and Fox. Thankfully he was traded, unfortunate again since it was to the Hurricanes who have Slavi, Skjei, and Hamilton. Random player but one I am interested to see progress.

    If Rafferty wins the Norris I hereby offer to either buy a Rafferty jersey (for whatever team he plays for at the time of said Norris win), or will donate the equivalent amount to a charity of HH’s choosing (charity being the preferable option).

    I have spoken.

  23. JimmyV1965 says:

    defmn: I still think that Holland’s assessment of the team when he became GM was that it was 3-4 years away from competing and that, to some extent, played into his decision to start at the back end.

    This explains the timing better.

    Looking back to last summer when he was making his decision I don’t think there was any suggestion that Jones, Yamomoto, or Bear would make substantial contributions to the team this season or any season in the future.

    There was still lots of talk that Draisaitl was a product of playing with McDavid which you still heard for the first half of this season from a lot of eastern media. Larsson had had two seasons in a row that were less than expected.

    Lucic was a boat anchor of a contract.

    Just look at how he proceeded with his signings. It was a real shotgun approach with more players than spots on the team and most of the contracts could be buried in the AHL if they didn’t work out.

    That is not the approach of a GM who thinks the team is ready to contend imo.

    So I think Holland was surprised at the success that the team had this year. I think he thought he had three or four years to get this team in shape and the first order of business was to build the back end.

    Then Jones and Bear surprised him. Draisaitl was finally slotted into the spot he had to claim in order for this team to succeed.Koskinen provided goal tending above what many expected.

    Its easy to see why Holland would think the team needed 3-4 years to recover from the previous 3-4 years of decisions.

    This may all be true, but I think we all knew there was more depth at the back end, even before the season started. IMO he simply thought Broberg was the BPA.

  24. jp says:

    defmn: I still think that Holland’s assessment of the team when he became GM was that it was 3-4 years away from competing and that, to some extent, played into his decision to start at the back end.

    This explains the timing better.

    I actually wonder whether Holland views draft picks (on draft day) as completely dissociated from building the NHL teams he’s icing. I have no particular evidence of that but his proclivity for letting kids develop and develop and develop on the farm suggests he basically never pencils a prospect into a roster spot in advance. Much less expecting a draft pick to fill a specific need on the NHL club from the day they’re drafted. Just a thought, but Holland may genuinely be guided by BPA (to a greater extent than the majority who claim to be, but don’t always walk the walk).

  25. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: The virus isn’t going anywhere.Treatments and/or a vaccine are unlikely.There are NO human corona vaccines.Zero.Respiratory viruses are notoriously hard to find vaccines for.

    Might as well start to find a way to operate by putting some sort of end on this season.So one has experience for next season.

    For a healthy twenty something year old hockey player, career concussion risk is probably greater than the risk from the virus.

    Things are not going back to normal.

    This, everywhere, is about learning how to function and lessen risk with the virus circulating.

    I think this is an important point to remember. For players with no underlying health conditions like asthma, concussions are an infinitely bigger threat to their health than covid.

  26. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Great stat on Bouchard.

    What are the ages of the 2 rookie d-men that finished with more points?

    I imagine one is Rafferty who is 24.

    I heard that the AHL board of governors is considering implementing a new rule regarding the age of players that are eligible to be considered as a rookie.
    Stockton Heat front office executive Darrell S. Fairweather was quoted as saying
    “No player over the age of 23 should ever be regarded as a rookie”

  27. Harpers Hair says:

    Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) Tweeted:
    Not exactly sure of terminology here, so going with this: LA and assistant GM Mike Futa are parting ways. Futa, whose expertise is draft and amateur scouting, is allowed to talk to other teams now. Kings still have director of amateur scouting Mark Yannetti to run their draft.

  28. ArmchairGM says:

    PennersPancakes:
    defmn,

    I was skeptical of the Broberg pick in real time but have grown to love it. Doesnt seem like an unreasonable reach even with the talent still on the board and while the Oilers definitely need forwards they wont need defense moving forward.

    With the Oilers having Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Bear, Jones as the current core and Broberg, Bouchard, Samorukov coming things are looking good. Even the lesser players such as Laggesson, Berglund and Niemelainen can provide cheap 3rd pairing talent if needed.

    Its my guess that Holland saw an opportunity to get the defense sorted out for the future since their development takes a bit longer than forwards. If Holland goes with a defensmen with the 1st round pick this year that will start to confuse me (unless something crazy like Drysdale slipping of course)

    Does this mean Nurse is gone next summer? I don’t like that idea at all, but he would bring in a pretty nice forward… say, Max Domi.

  29. jp says:

    JimmyV1965: I think this is an important point to remember. For players with no underlying health conditions like asthma, concussions are an infinitely bigger threat to their health than covid.

    I’m not sure anyone can say this with any certainty. How many players have their careers ended by concussions? Or end up with issues after their careers? I guess there’s no firm numbers on those questions but it isn’t a huge number, is it? (certainly not if you look at players who’s careers are ended directly).

    Covd-19 clearly affects older people radically more than 20- and 30-somethings. But the death rate among 20-40 years olds is something like 1 in 1000 (that’s from the actual known cases and deaths in Massachusetts). More than 5% of people in that age range ended up hospitalized and I know that there can be damage to long term lung function (fibrosis) in people who get severe Covid illness. There’s also evidence of other long term effects that might be coming from Covid cases that we don’t really understand now.

    All of this is really just to say that your statement “concussions are an infinitely bigger threat to their health than covid” may very well not be true. It could be, but we just don’t know.

  30. PennersPancakes says:

    ArmchairGM: Does this mean Nurse is gone next summer? I don’t like that idea at all, but he would bring in a pretty nice forward… say, Max Domi.

    The timing seems a little off unless some of Lagesson/Samurokov/Broberg make a big jump this season. If you move nurse you have one of them in the top 4, and 2 if Klefbom (not an iron man candidate) goes down.

    With this organization anything is possible. Im not one to be old school hockey but if the Oilers walk away from Nurse and/or Larsson the D gets a little bit softer. Dont need enforcers but end of the day this is a contact sport.

    … Although Samorukov does have some highlight hits.

  31. jp says:

    PennersPancakes: I was skeptical of the Broberg pick in real time but have grown to love it. Doesnt seem like an unreasonable reach even with the talent still on the board and while the Oilers definitely need forwards they wont need defense moving forward.

    I don’t think the Oilers “definitely” need more forwards at all (at least not top 6 types like we’re discussing with the Broberg pick).

    IMO the current group that’s under control has a great chance to be a way above average top 6:
    Athanasious-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto

    Maybe Athanasiou ends up not being a fit, and maybe you can improve on Kassian in that spot… But we need a chance to see them before we say they’re not good enough. IMO there’s no reason to spend assets or $$ to try to upgrade on any of those players until at least mid-way through next season (if they’re found wanting to that point).

  32. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Del Boca Vista is in mourning today.
    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/11/us/jerry-stiller-death-natural-causes/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

    That’s too bad. He had a nice run though, almost made it to 93.

  33. defmn says:

    JimmyV1965: This may all be true, but I think we all knew there was more depth at the back end, even before the season started. IMO he simply thought Broberg was the BPA.

    That’s just as likely but ‘depth’ is not what I would be hoping for with a top ten pick. This team does not have a true #1 dman while it does have 2 true #1 centres so from that perspective the defence is the place that needed upgrading if the goal is Stanley.

    In any case I was trying to explain to OP why I could see Holland not regarding the shorter development path of a winger as important since the team last summer didn’t look like a short term contender.

  34. defmn says:

    jp: I actually wonder whether Holland views draft picks (on draft day) as completely dissociated from building the NHL teams he’s icing. I have no particular evidence of that but his proclivity for letting kids develop and develop and develop on the farm suggests he basically never pencils a prospect into a roster spot in advance. Much less expecting a draft pick to fill a specific need on the NHL club from the day they’re drafted. Just a thought, but Holland may genuinely be guided by BPA (to a greater extent than the majority who claim to be, but don’t always walk the walk).

    Could well be. As I just posted to JimmyV my post was mostly me trying to explain why I didn’t think the shorter path to winger development was an inducement to choose one.

    A GM that thinks he is a particular type of player away from contending balance might be swayed at the draft to go for that kind of player but imo Holland thought he was taking on a mess.

    Or maybe that is what I thought. 😉

  35. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) Tweeted:
    Not exactly sure of terminology here, so going with this: LA and assistant GM Mike Futa are parting ways. Futa, whose expertise is draft and amateur scouting, is allowed to talk to other teams now. Kings still have director of amateur scouting Mark Yannetti to run their draft.

    There’s a story there. Does the guy from Vancouver fit into it?

  36. Darth Tu says:

    ArmchairGM: Does this mean Nurse is gone next summer? I don’t like that idea at all, but he would bring in a pretty nice forward… say, Max Domi.

    Domi’s contract is up this year isn’t it? With Bergevin saying he’s not afraid to go after someone with an offer sheet again in the off season you have to think to free up more cap space that probably means he’s not going to resign Domi.

  37. defmn says:

    jp: I don’t think the Oilers “definitely” need more forwards at all (at least not top 6 types like we’re discussing with the Broberg pick).

    IMO the current group that’s under control has a great chance to be a way above average top 6:
    Athanasious-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto

    Maybe Athanasiou ends up not being a fit, and maybe you can improve on Kassian in that spot… But we need a chance to see them before we say they’re not good enough. IMO there’s no reason to spend assets or $$ to try to upgrade on any of those players until at least mid-way through next season (if they’re found wanting to that point).

    How I see it as well. The $12.5 price tag for Connor means he has to be able to make guys like Kassian and AA viable line mates.

  38. PennersPancakes says:

    jp: I don’t think the Oilers “definitely” need more forwards at all (at least not top 6 types like we’re discussing with the Broberg pick).

    IMO the current group that’s under control has a great chance to be a way above average top 6:
    Athanasious-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto

    Maybe Athanasiou ends up not being a fit, and maybe you can improve on Kassian in that spot… But we need a chance to see them before we say they’re not good enough. IMO there’s no reason to spend assets or $$ to try to upgrade on any of those players until at least mid-way through next season (if they’re found wanting to that point).

    Sorry for not being more clear, I was trying to say they need to draft more forwards. I feel the current top 6 group can be carried this season, or at least deserves a trial run. I also feel more bullish on AA than a lot of posters here it seems.

    The main area of weakness (other than 3C and G) is the forward prospects. You have Benson, Puljujarvi, Lavoie, and McLeod as potential additions but all seem to be complimentary players IF they make it.

    It would be very nice for Holland to load a few more bullets in the chamber and draft some high end forward talent in the upcoming drafts.

  39. N64 says:

    godot10: The virus isn’t going anywhere.Treatments and/or a vaccine are unlikely.There are NO human corona vaccines.Zero.Respiratory viruses are notoriously hard to find vaccines for.

    Might as well start to find a way to operate by putting some sort of end on this season.So one has experience for next season.

    For a healthy twenty something year old hockey player, career concussion risk is probably greater than the risk from the virus.

    Things are not going back to normal.

    This, everywhere, is about learning how to function and lessen risk with the virus circulating.

    This week NBA mentioned possibility of no fans in the stands all of next year and MLB indicated any shortened season needs to conclude before ramp up expected around the time flu season typically escalates. Meanwhile BC confirmed 2 weeks quarantine arriving from out of country and the mass gathering limit of 50 are not changing without major changes with no timelines,

    Just like citizens voted with their feet before any “lockdowns” players will decide likely with a high consensus requirement what they want to do. I can see them resuming the playoffs in July or August or Sept or October and can see lots of reasons they could elect for earlier or later.

    Whatever they decide I suspect the loss of gate revenue this year and next will put a huge premium on getting 2020 and 2021 playoff revenue from the rights holders. Whether they do the 2020 playoffs in July or October I 100% agree that the 2020 playoffs are a great place to start. They will be easier to mount than the next season and are a good place to learn.

    Update:That 0.7% positive rate from the big MLB serology study was scary as it projects to a 2.0% IFR . Not as wild as the study from Bakersfield that bizarrely projected from a “representative” sample of walk ins for medical attention during a pandemic, but MLB staff is a group that will very much under represent exposure. Still expect the 0.5 to 1.0% IFR consistent with studies with more signal than noise.

  40. jp says:

    defmn: Could well be. As I just posted to JimmyV my post was mostly me trying to explain why I didn’t think the shorter path to winger development was an inducement to choose one.

    A GM that thinks he is a particular type of player away from contending balance might be swayed at the draft to go for that kind of player but imo Holland thought he was taking on a mess.

    Or maybe that is what I thought.?

    Hehe, well we’re all just speculating here.

  41. jp says:

    PennersPancakes: Sorry for not being more clear, I was trying to say they need to draft more forwards. I feel the current top 6 group can be carried this season, or at least deserves a trial run. I also feel more bullish on AA than a lot of posters here it seems.

    The main area of weakness (other than 3C and G) is the forward prospects. You have Benson, Puljujarvi, Lavoie, and McLeod as potential additions but all seem to be complimentary players IF they make it.

    It would be very nice for Holland to load a few more bullets in the chamber and draft some high end forward talent in the upcoming drafts.

    Yes, definitely agreed that the Oilers lack forward prospect depth.

  42. jfry says:

    1 of 20 fighters tested positive for this weekend’s UFC. Of all MLB players tested, only 1% has covid antibodies.The World Baseball Classic, currently set for next March, will not be played in 2021 due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the rescheduling of the Tokyo Olympics, sources tell ESPN Deportes’ Enrique Rojas. this isn’t going away anytime soon.

    most of the companies we represent are now talking july and august open dates. google is suggesting that all of it’s employees will work remotely for all of 2021.

    it feels very selfish watching these leagues trying to get going asap, when they’re taking tests and medical resources away from those who need it most. there is so much unknown about this, and revenue sharing for some of the richest people in north america seems tone deaf to me. and i wish teams would come out and say that.

    as i heard from one colleague, seems weird to screw up two seasons to finish one.

    thank god for LT’s draft coverage! it’s saving my daily reading schedule. lets cancel the season and get on with the draft! we’ve already had a two month break. it’s fundamentally not the same season at this point.

    also, zegras or caufield would look so good in our system right now!

  43. defmn says:

    jp: Yes, definitely agreed that the Oilers lack forward prospect depth.

    Remember the days when it was ‘common knowledge’ here and other places that finding wingers was much, much easier than procuring centres or dmen? 😉

  44. Munny says:

    I think there were a couple of things in play last draft:

    1. I think Holland knew there would be more Round 1 defensemen available last draft and more quality forwards available this draft. By going D in 2019 and F in 2020 he would have two higher quality players in the system, than if he did it the other way around. (Assuming they take a F this Round 1)

    2. It was the beginning of the New Holland regime, and he is aware Dmen take longer to develop. This goes back to the drum I was beating in 2010-2 when posting as spOILer… taking high end Fs first in a full team rebuild will not end up well (and it didn’t).

    3. He knew the USHL kids inside and out and maybe didn’t see as high a potential ceiling in those Fs as others did. Scouts are also famous for marking those prospects they see more frequently harder… the cracks begin to appear if you stare at the Mona Lisa long enough. So maybe some of that too.

    But we do know from the article HH posted yesterday that VCR’s Director of Amateur Scouting also wanted Broberg, so there was some love there for the player in that range. I think a BPA case can be made for his reasoning.

  45. Munny says:

    defmn: Remember the days when it was ‘common knowledge’ here and other places that finding wingers was much, much easier than procuring centres or dmen? ?

    Well Holly did pick up two useful wingers for a song at the deadline, and has another one sitting at a back table refusing to karaoke over in Finland.

  46. defmn says:

    Munny: Well Holly did pick up two useful wingers for a song at the deadline, and has another one sitting at a back table refusing to karaoke over in Finland.

    Yup. And some continue to pine over a former LW’er we had to trade to get a RD a few years ago.

    If AA doesn’t work out I have every confidence that Holland will find another one to try in that spot.

  47. jp says:

    defmn: Remember the days when it was ‘common knowledge’ here and other places that finding wingers was much, much easier than procuring centres or dmen? ?

    Ha! I do remember, these are strange times. The Oilers have done a really nice job building up the middle it seems. And as Munny said, Holland (and even Chiarelli) have been able to add some useful wingers too.

  48. JimmyV1965 says:

    jp: I’m not sure anyone can say this with any certainty. How many players have their careers ended by concussions? Or end up with issues after their careers? I guess there’s no firm numbers on those questions but it isn’t a huge number, is it? (certainly not if you look at players who’s careers are ended directly).

    Covd-19 clearly affects older people radically more than 20- and 30-somethings. But the death rate among 20-40 years olds is something like 1 in 1000 (that’s from the actual known cases and deaths in Massachusetts). More than 5% of people in that age range ended up hospitalized and I know that there can be damage to long term lung function (fibrosis) in people who get severe Covid illness. There’s also evidence of other long term effects that might be coming from Covid cases that we don’t really understand now.

    All of this is really just to say that your statement “concussions are an infinitely bigger threat to their health than covid” may very well not be true. It could be, but we just don’t know.

    My comment is probably a tad bit hyperbolic. Nothing about covid can be said with any certainty because testing has been atrocious and the lack of information two months out is miserable.

    I guess the point I’m making is that life has inherent risk. At some point you have to accept the risk, make smart decisions and move forward. Canada has 5,000 deaths right now. I would say a handful of those are amongst the 18-44 year old group, with no underlying health conditions. We’ve probably had more people in that age range die from motor vehicles during that time.

    Maybe I’m wrong about concussions. But NHL players take a risk every time they lace up.

  49. defmn says:

    Munny:
    I think there were a couple of things in play last draft:

    1.I think Holland knew there would be more Round 1 defensemen available last draft and more quality forwards available this draft.By going D in 2019 and F in 2020 he would have two higher quality players in the system, than if he did it the other way around.(Assuming they take a F this Round 1)

    2.It was the beginning of the New Holland regime, and he is aware Dmen take longer to develop. This goes back to the drum I was beating in 2010-2 when posting as spOILer…taking high end Fs first in a full team rebuild will not end up well (and it didn’t).

    3.He knew the USHL kids inside and out and maybe didn’t see as high a potential ceiling in those Fs as others did.Scouts are also famous for marking those prospects they see more frequently harder… the cracks begin to appear if you stare at the Mona Lisa long enough.So maybe some of that too.

    But we do know from the article HH posted yesterday that VCR’s Director of Amateur Scouting also wanted Broberg, so there was some love there for the player in that range.I think a BPA case can be made for his reasoning.

    Your point #2 is what I was trying to say. He saw this team as further away from contending than it looks like now. Picking up 3 very useful players in Bear, Yamo and Jones that were not expected easily shortens the time line by two years from what he probably thought he was getting into.

  50. Scungilli Slushy says:

    N64: This week NBA mentioned possibility of no fans in the stands all of next year and MLB indicated any shortened season needs to conclude before ramp up expected around the time flu season typically escalates. Meanwhile BC confirmed 2 weeks quarantine arriving from out of country and the mass gathering limit of 50 are not changing without major changes with no timelines,

    Just like citizens voted with their feet before any “lockdowns” players will decide likely with a high consensus requirement what they want to do. I can see them resuming the playoffs in July or August or Sept or October and can see lots of reasons they could elect for earlier or later.

    Whatever they decide I suspect the loss of gate revenue this year and next will put a huge premium on getting 2020 and 2021 playoff revenue from the rights holders. Whether they do the 2020 playoffs in July or October I 100% agree that the 2020 playoffs are a great place to start. They will be easier to mount than the next season and are a good place to learn.

    Update:That 0.7% positive rate from the big MLB serology studywas scary as it projects to a 2.0% IFR . Not as wild as the study from Bakersfield that bizarrely projected from a “representative” sample of walk ins for medical attention during a pandemic, but MLB staff is a group that will very much under represent exposure. Still expect the 0.5 to 1.0% IFR consistent with studies with more signal than noise.

    Dr Johann Gisecke figures at the end of the day the infection rate will be 50% with a mortality rate of 0.1%, regardless of what countries do. The difference being in how fast the spread happens, not overwhelming the medical system, and protecting those actually at risk.

  51. godot10 says:

    jfry:

    as i heard from one colleague, seems weird to screw up two seasons to finish one.

    You finish this season to learn how to pull next season off without a catastrophe.

  52. Munny says:

    defmn,

    I think a lot of what we’ve seen from past regimes is the assumption that all will go well in the future… that draft picks will become what they’re supposed to be when they’re supposed to, rosters will be mostly healthy, goaltending will follow its historical averages, trades will be available when we need them, depth is a secondary concern etc.

    There’s been no saving for a rainy day (and I hope Covid has taught everyone how important doing this is) and preparation has been “prepare for the best and hope for the best” rather than “prepare for the worst, hope for the best.”

    Holland seems different. Bringing in multiple bets for the bottom 6 last summer, when there was no way all those Fs could make the starting roster, I think is a prime example.

  53. defmn says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Dr Johann Gisecke figures at the end of the day the infection rate will be 50% with a mortality rate of 0.1%, regardless of what countries do. The difference being in how fast the spread happens, not overwhelming the medical system, and protecting those actually at risk.

    Looking more and more like this is how it is going to play out. Maybe small improvements in prevention and treatment along the way as a result of slowing the path but that is about it.

  54. defmn says:

    Munny:
    defmn,

    I think a lot of what we’ve seen from past regimes is the assumption that all will go well in the future… that draft picks will become what they’re supposed to be, rosters will be mostly healthy, goaltending will follow its historical averages, trades will be available when we need them, depth is a secondary concern etc.

    There’s been no saving for a rainy day (and I hope Covid has taught everyone how important doing this is) and preparation has been “prepare for the best and hope for the best” rather than “prepare for the worst, hope for the best.”

    Holland seems different.Bringing in multiple bets for the bottom 6 last summer, when there was no way all those Fs could make the starting roster, I think is a prime example.

    They tried to rush what can’t be rushed.

    As an old flooring contractor of mine used to tell me every time I asked him how much longer to finish,

    “You can’t rush wood.” 😉

    This team is a few pieces away from balance but there is still no strong surplus or pipeline.

  55. Munny says:

    defmn: “You can’t rush wood.” ?

    Certainly not at my age…

  56. Material Elvis says:

    godot10: The virus isn’t going anywhere.Treatments and/or a vaccine are unlikely.There are NO human corona vaccines.Zero.Respiratory viruses are notoriously hard to find vaccines for.

    Might as well start to find a way to operate by putting some sort of end on this season.So one has experience for next season.

    For a healthy twenty something year old hockey player, career concussion risk is probably greater than the risk from the virus.

    Things are not going back to normal.

    This, everywhere, is about learning how to function and lessen risk with the virus circulating.

    It’s going to take some time but there will be a vaccine produced. There is strong political and economic motivation to develop the vaccine now; plus there is obscene public and private funding available (previous funding existed for SARS but when the virus subsided the funding dried up). Previous strains were not dangerous (except SARS and MERS) or less transmissible; there was no desire to fund and develop a vaccine for a virus that produces cold-like symptoms and has a low hospitalization rate. There are multiple groups who are already in phase one clinical trials.

  57. jfry says:

    godot10,

    that’s just the worst answer! you don’t finish this season in an effort to create safety for all humans and better allocate resources. UFC did 1200 tests last week. lots of cities/countries could have used those tests.

    all these television stations pushing sports to come back because they paid into them, is just exposing an antiquated funding/revenue model.

    the younger generation is happy to twitch and e-sport. maybe the older generation should be as well?

    there’s not a single report i’ve read about sports coming back where anyone is suggesting what you’re saying. not a single one is referencing korean baseball or disney opening up in china. this is all about revenue revenue revenue. maybe we need accept that the next salary cap is going to be 39m again, and what that really looks like, not how to get sports back on cable television because they signed ridiculous contracts?

    lets, as a culture, focus on the important things (old people dying, the super spreaders, first line people). there’s enough entourage episodes to stream that people will be okay. the current motivation to go live is all about money, and that’s the wrong motivation.

  58. jfry says:

    32 million people have died from aids/hiv and there’s no vaccine yet. suggesting one will be available is simply a hopeful model and shouldn’t be stated as fact.

    i’m in nyc right now, and i can say that there’s not much political will going into solving the medical issue as their is to winning an election in november.

    Material Elvis: It’s going to take some time but there will be a vaccine produced.There is strong political and economic motivation to develop the vaccine now;plus there is obscene public and private funding available (previous funding existed for SARS but when the virus subsided the funding dried up). Previous strains were not dangerous (except SARS and MERS) or less transmissible;there was no desire to fund and develop a vaccine for a virus that produces cold-like symptoms and has a low hospitalization rate.There are multiple groups who are already in phase one clinical trials.

  59. Munny says:

    Material Elvis: It’s going to take some time but there will be a vaccine produced.There is strong political and economic motivation to develop the vaccine now;plus there is obscene public and private funding available (previous funding existed for SARS but when the virus subsided the funding dried up). Previous strains were not dangerous (except SARS and MERS) or less transmissible;there was no desire to fund and develop a vaccine for a virus that produces cold-like symptoms and has a low hospitalization rate.There are multiple groups who are already in phase one clinical trials.

    While this is a good case for having some optimism, it is nowhere near a guarantee that an efficacious vaccine will be found. Godot is correct that it is difficult to develop vaccines against viruses, in particular flu viruses. That’s more because of the nature of viruses, than our lack of ability or motivation.

  60. jtblack says:

    BORIS JOHNSON (UK) said today.

    “I’m hearing some very encouraging things from what’s going on at Oxford to achieve a vaccine [but] this is by no means guaranteed. I believe I’m right in saying that, even after 18 years we still don’t have a vaccine for Sars. What I can tell you is that the UK is at the forefront of concerting international activity to try to deliver a vaccine.

    If you ask me am I absolutely certain that we won’t be living with this for a long time to come, I can’t say that. It may be that we have to become ever more flexible, ever more agile, ever smarter in the way that we tackle, not just this infection, but potentially future infections as well.”

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben:
    YMMV, but I’m ready to move on from this season, regardless of whatever logistical mountains might be moved to get to playoffs. For me, enough time has elapsed that there’s a full break in the season’s labour and narrative.

    I think the NHL should worry a lot more about whether they’ll be able to cobble together a season next year than finish this one off. Hope they call it soon.

    I agree and disagree all at the same time.

    I said fairly close to the beginning of the shut down that I think they should cancel the rest of 2019/20 and focus on a “normal” 2020/21 – premise being why have two “effed up seasons” – this season is already effed up so lets focus on a normal off-season and full 2020/21 season.

    As it turns out, a “normal” 2020/21 season is almost an impossibility as well. I can’t imagine “fans in the stands” by early October so the start will be delayed in any event – to the latest date possible to still get 82 games in and finish by mid-July.

    On that premise, yes, there is still some time to potentially get some sort of 2019/20 conclusion. No sure thing but the potential is there and it really doesn’t effect 2020/21 at this point because its not going to start until November/December in any event.

    To the extent some semblance of a 2019/20 conclusion is possible – go for it – get that revenue in – fulfill some more advertising and network obligations so there is less clawback or rollover for next season.

    Of course, if its possible.

    Once it starts to effect the potential of a complete 82 game 2020/21, then, yes, put the kibosh on!

    In my opinion.

  62. Material Elvis says:

    Munny: While this is a good case for having some optimism, it is nowhere near a guarantee that an efficacious vaccine will be found.Godot is correct that it is difficult to develop vaccines against viruses, in particular flu viruses.That’s more because of the nature of viruses, than our lack of ability or motivation.

    We’ll see. Nobody is arguing that it is easy but I firmly believe that it can and will be done.

  63. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    “Once it starts to effect the potential of a complete 82 game 2020/21”

    why is the 82 games important? I have seen this from a few ppl.

    it does not matter to me, I am curious why it does to others …

    I am happy with a 48 game season, 64 games, 70 games, 82 games …. all would be fine with me for 2020/21

  64. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: There’s a story there. Does the guy from Vancouver fit into it?

    Not sure.

    Futa has been highly regarded for years and likely wants a GM job.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    I’m fine either way. I understand the NHL is looking at $1 billion in losses and if teams and players agree to come back then it’s all good in my mind. If it comes to a point where canceling is the only option then it’s all good then, too. Rational thought must carry the day. Risk is involved, but it’ll be involved in October too.

    I agree with you on this LT and, although I was originally all in favor of cancelling the season and focussing on a fresh and normal 2020/21 starting in October, I think that is an unlikely scenario so there is a bit of an extended track – if revenue can be recovered and not rolled over – go for it (to the extent it is indeed manageable safety and hockey wise.

    The track won’t go on forever though – if they are going to get going, they are going to have to figure out a plan in the next few weeks or so – starting with getting players back “home” to start 14-day isolation (if some cases) and an official end to mandatory player quarantine and opening of facilities in June – issue there is inability to do it in ALL jurisdictions.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Joey Keane
    Charlotte Checkers
    Position: D
    6-0 / 187lbs
    Shoots: R
    Birthdate: 1999-07-02

    One more point than Bouchard in 4 more games. Played for Charlotte and Hartford during the season.

    Thanks – Don’t know that guy – well I do a bit now as I looked him up. Solid rookie year as the “same age” as Bouchard. Looks like a solid pick for the Canes.

  67. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Has the CMD interview on in the background: so boring.

    – I mean they tried hard but CMD is just not comfortable in these things and/or had the media training to not say much.

    – Plus doesn’t watch hockey hasn’t watch the old time stuff no hobbies no comment when talking about his team. Nothing insightful or personal. No observations

    – He’s a very humble guy on camera.

  68. N64 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Dr Johann Gisecke figures at the end of the day the infection rate will be 50% with a mortality rate of 0.1%, regardless of what countries do. The difference being in how fast the spread happens, not overwhelming the medical system, and protecting those actually at risk.

    The smallest problem is the sample size of 100.

    “One of the reasons for [Giesecke’s] confidence is a new coronavirus test that has been performed on blood donors in the Stockholm region. It showed that at least 11 out of 100 have developed antibodies”.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/21/sweden-600000-coronavirus-infections-in-stockholm-by-may-1-model-estimates/#548c3d1478d6

    Now blood banks are a neat place to go back to find blood donated for the usual reasons to see the antibody levels. A larger study in the Netherlands estimated IFT .81%

    But what would we do if our small sample included an unknown number of contributions to the blood bank specifically made by recovered patients to make antibody serum?

    Of course we would do what Giesecke’s Institute did the very next day. We’d retract the paper.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/22/sweden-health-agency-withdraws-controversial-coronavirus-report/#7cdac8414349

  69. Material Elvis says:

    jfry:
    32 million people have died from aids/hiv and there’s no vaccine yet. suggesting one will be available is simply a hopeful model and shouldn’t be stated as fact.

    i’m in nyc right now, and i can say that there’s not much political will going into solving the medical issue as their is to winning an election in november.

    You are comparing oranges and apples Jeffery (Coronavirus vs Human Immunodeficiency Virus). I would like to provide you with a proper detailed response but I’m on my phone. Coles notes version: HIV and AIDS are not acute illnesses; patients end up in the hospital with pneumonia or similar when they reach advanced stages. And although there isn’t a vaccine for HIV, there is treatment available and outcomes are far more positive than two decades ago — there has been substantial advancement in treatment. There is no ‘inert’ HIV vector that you can use to create a vaccine and there might not ever be one. That is not the case with Coronavirus.

    The main point you are missing is transmissibility. With HIV, transmission is mostly related to lifestyle choices. Your grandma isn’t going to get it if you cough on her. That isn’t the case with Covid-19.

  70. defmn says:

    jtblack:
    OriginalPouzar,

    “Once it starts to effect the potential of a complete 82 game 2020/21”

    why is the 82 games important?I have seen this from a few ppl.

    it does not matter to me, I am curious why it does to others …

    I am happy with a 48 game season, 64 games, 70 games, 82 games …. all would be fine with me for 2020/21

    Money.

  71. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Not sure.

    Futa has been highly regarded for years and likely wants a GM job.

    Worth watching.

  72. jtblack says:

    defmn: Money.

    yes, but as a fan why does it matter?

    I would prefer they finish 19/20 as long as Cup is handed out before dec.31, 2020. Then get on with next season whether it’s 48 games, 60 or 82 ….

    Unique times call for unique solutions …. For me as a fan, I don’t care about 82 games one bit. And wish the season was shorter in regular times (I know it’s not because of $$) …

  73. N64 says:

    From a May 3 metastudy all serology studies and preprints with age adjusted IFR estimates available in English by April 30:

    Diamond Princess(Russell+) .6
    China (Tian+) 1.15
    China (Verity+) .7
    France (Rosques) .8
    Italy (Rinaldi) 1.29
    Italy (Villa+) 1.6
    Italy (Modi+) .95
    NYC .93
    Santa Clara (Bendavid+) .2

    The Santa Clara study has the least signal because inside the confidence levels false positives could account for all cases. Further the .2 was base on upward adjustment from the raw samples that were not properly calculated. IFR of .33 without the sampling adjustments.

    So can’t see a lot of reasons not to expect 1/3-1%. Any thing below .5% would probably be good news. We wait.

    This does not include either of the Swedish studies that were withdrawn third week of April:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/22/sweden-health-agency-withdraws-controversial-coronavirus-report/#1752d09b4349

  74. Harpers Hair says:

    Teams keep finding gems in the NCAA.

    VGK sign Jack Dugan.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/golden-knights-sign-hobey-baker-finalist-jack-dugan/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    Another USHL forward.

  75. jfry says:

    i’m suggesting, there’s no certainty in a vaccine being created. very simply.

    aid/hiv is much harder to transmit than covid. covid transmits by breathing on a senior or touching a subway door, not through more difficult/intimate fashions like intercourse. this is also, a lifestyle choice. in this way of thinking covid is dramatically easier to catch than aids/hiv.

    you’re talking about solutions that are taking multiple decades to work through, just like sars.

    it’s the idea of decades and still no solutions. we’ve committed 100s of million of dollars to fighting hiv/aids and have only recently moved the needle, and seen an entire generation of gay men and africans (both sexes) die. it’s tragic. and if you go back and read the news of the time, everyone was really close to a solution. in the late 70s, the mid 90s, and y2k.

    the thing i’m trying to say is that “certainty of vaccine” is not a realistic statement at this point, when we don’t know what the disease really is. aids/hiv has been a winning disease because it mutates differently in every person it affects, which means there’s no global solution, making the vaccine extremely difficult to create and execute. we have no clue about covid at this point. we’re seeing leg amputations, “covid toes”, breathing problems, blue face, second infections, etc. depending on pre-existing lifestyle choices, it’s attacking everyone differently.

    i’m not comparing the two diseases directly. i’m comparing the idea that a vaccine might be difficult, even impossible. and that everyone’s lifestyle is at risk. and that should be the focus – the new reality. not righting for the old reality.

    maybe “safe sex” means we forego the playoffs?

    Material Elvis: You are comparing oranges and apples Jeffery (Coronavirus vs Human Immunodeficiency Virus).I would like to provide you with a proper detailed response but I’m on my phone.Coles notes version: HIV and AIDS are not acute illnesses;patients end up in the hospital with pneumonia or similar when they reach advanced stages.And although there isn’t a vaccine for HIV, there is treatment available and outcomes are far more positive than two decades ago — there has been substantial advancement in treatment.There is no ‘inert’ HIV vector that you can use to create a vaccine and there might not ever be one.That is not the case with Coronavirus.

    The main point you are missing is transmissibility.With HIV, transmission is mostly related to lifestyle choices.Your grandma isn’t going to get it if you cough on her.That isn’t the case with Covid-19.

  76. PennersPancakes says:

    Harpers Hair: Jack Dugan

    Its a decent signing but is it finding a gem when its their draft pick from 2017 and hes a hobey baker finalist. Man wasnt flying under the radar.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    When Holland passed on the USNDTP kids, I took it as an indictment of the players and not the manager.Kenny’s long term game is strong.

    To be fair, I wanted Krebs.So Broberg was a bit of a surprise, telegraphing via the MSM aside.But I was willing to trust Kenny’d seen the kids enough to know what he was(n’t) selecting when he passed over the US kids like Zegras and Caulfield.

    Agree 100%. Not going to lie, when I heard the name “Broberg” I was a bit disappointed but only because of what I had heard and read about the high end USHL skill forwards – I was excited to add some upfront skill.

    It took me mere seconds to realize that I trust Holland and his plan and i’m excited about what might come of Broberg – if Holland and his team determined he was the “best player available”, who am I to disagree at this point?

  78. Georges says:

    defmn: I still think that Holland’s assessment of the team when he became GM was that it was 3-4 years away from competing and that, to some extent, played into his decision to start at the back end.

    This explains the timing better.

    Looking back to last summer when he was making his decision I don’t think there was any suggestion that Jones, Yamomoto, or Bear would make substantial contributions to the team this season or any season in the future.

    There was still lots of talk that Draisaitl was a product of playing with McDavid which you still heard for the first half of this season from a lot of eastern media. Larsson had had two seasons in a row that were less than expected.

    Lucic was a boat anchor of a contract.

    Just look at how he proceeded with his signings. It was a real shotgun approach with more players than spots on the team and most of the contracts could be buried in the AHL if they didn’t work out.

    That is not the approach of a GM who thinks the team is ready to contend imo.

    So I think Holland was surprised at the success that the team had this year. I think he thought he had three or four years to get this team in shape and the first order of business was to build the back end.

    Then Jones and Bear surprised him. Draisaitl was finally slotted into the spot he had to claim in order for this team to succeed.Koskinen provided goal tending above what many expected.

    Its easy to see why Holland would think the team needed 3-4 years to recover from the previous 3-4 years of decisions.

    “I still think that Holland’s assessment of the team when he became GM was that it was 3-4 years away from competing…”

    Here’s what Holland said the day he was introduced:

    “There’s lots of great pieces in place here… I’d like to think we’re talking playoffs in ’19-20 when you look at some of the young players on this team… We’ve got a core up front, we need to find out how to surround them properly…”

    Holland proceeded to surround the core with vets and Euro pros. You say a shotgun approach. I think the shotgun was aimed in a general direction according to a general plan. He didn’t bring in prospects, he brought in journeymen vets and speedy Euros. Individually, not good bets, but collectively, they served his purpose. A lot of low ceiling plays to avoid the demoralizing big swing and big miss. The more players than spots was calculated. No one was assured of anything. The HC could move players in and out of the lineup as necessary. Find just enough production, just enough compete to develop a formula for winning.

    Oh yeah, he found a taker for Lucic and brought back a consistent 20 goal scorer coming off a bad season after two consecutive trips to the SCF.

    He hired a coach with successful turnarounds on his resume, well regarded by former players. And he brought in a veteran goalie who had history and success with said HC, someone the HC would be comfortable using as cover for the incumbent (as he built up his confidence).

    The HC told Bear to treat his chance to play during TC as opportunity knocking. The HC stuck with the kid the whole season. Both have been rewarded. I think that’s more or less how it works. HC’s have to build their players’ confidence by showing that they have confidence in them. (Remember the two prior HC’s who did their level best to break our players’ confidence/belief systems? Not good times.) With a competent HC, you expect your younger players and prospects to move along, to develop. Bear and Jones were draft+5, Yamamoto was draft+3. They were at that threshold of ready or not.

    “Looking back to last summer when he was making his decision I don’t think there was any suggestion that Jones, Yamomoto, or Bear would make substantial contributions to the team this season or any season in the future.”

    Were these guys already written off at that point? I think they were all in the window where you could expect them to contribute to the team, if they were going to contribute at all. Tippett gave a vote of confidence to Bear in TC. You kinda knew the other two were going to get their chance with the new HC as well. The substantial contribution part applies mostly to Yams. Bless that guy. A PPG callup is a wonderful, wonderful event.

    You had the team at 90 points in Hunter’s Death March. Not sure what you mean by competing/contending and why you think it would take 3-4 years (a lifetime in terms of coaching tenure) to recover. 90 points would have made the team competitive for a playoff spot in the WC. That was Holland’s stated plan. He was thinking playoffs. With your guess of 90 points, you seemed OK with that plan, no…? As in, not too outrageous?

    “So I think Holland was surprised at the success that the team had this year. I think he thought he had three or four years to get this team in shape and the first order of business was to build the back end.”

    My guess is Holland expected the team to be in the mix. From DET, he saw a team that was seriously under performing. Good pieces but not well run or well coached. Two healthy seasons of CMD wasted by failing to crack 80 points in the standings. Pfft. Holland expected to compete for the playoffs with his off season moves. You have to compete with CMD in his 5th season; there are NO excuses. He would have lost the town otherwise: if he got paid $5M, iced a losing, non-competitive team, and then threw some culture and patience “I’ve been in hockey a long time” mumbo jumbo out there. Just like players, a GM has to show… something…

    I’m also guessing he thinks Broberg is really good. Really good defensemen are hard to trade for.

  79. N64 says:

    defmn: Looking more and more like this is how it is going to play out. Maybe small improvements in prevention and treatment along the way as a result of slowing the path but that is about it.

    We’ll see what wave 2 brings, but Edmonton confirmed cases is at 0.02% of population. Spitballing that let’s guess at .2% infected. Can’t accurately predict what that will look like by the Fall with most biz open (but consumer demand still constrained with covid). But right now can’t see herd immunity arriving here or in BC quicker than better suppression (without sledge hammers), and better preventives and treatments.

  80. Harpers Hair says:

    PennersPancakes: Its a decent signing but is it finding a gem when its their draft pick from 2017 and hes a hobey baker finalist. Man wasnt flying under the radar.

    Anytime a later fifth round pick turns into anything and is a Hobey Baker finalist, you found a gem.

  81. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Teams keep finding gems in the NCAA.

    VGK sign Jack Dugan.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/golden-knights-sign-hobey-baker-finalist-jack-dugan/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    Another USHL forward.

    It would be nice for the development of more Canadian kids into the pros if CHL players still had the NCAA option. With or without draft age changes we should allow all signed players into the AHL and not allow them in the CHL. It would be better for Canada.

  82. Harpers Hair says:

    Interesting that NHL teams will be able to run a 30 man roster if, as proposed, the league tries to stage a playoff tournament as referenced in the AHL story posted above.

    Who do the Oilers call up?

  83. Harpers Hair says:

    N64: It would be nice for the development of more Canadian kids into the pros if CHL players still had the NCAA option. With or without draft age changes we should allow all signed players into the AHL and not allow them in the CHL.It would be better for Canada.

    Without delving deeply into it, I have the general sense that NCAA hockey is increasing its role in developing NHL players.

    This may be driven from the bottom as the USHL has really upped the ante.

    While the development process takes longer, it’s turning out many NHL ready players.

  84. N64 says:

    Lots of debate about challenge vaccine trials before we have better treatment options, but WHO has a paper up on challenge trials for 18-30 year volunteers with full informed consent and lots of other pre-reqs.

    https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331976/WHO-2019-nCoV-Ethics_criteria-2020.1-eng.pdf?ua=1

  85. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair: Without delving deeply into it, I have the general sense that NCAA hockey is increasing its role in developing NHL players.

    This may be driven from the bottom as the USHL has really upped the ante.

    While the development process takes longer, it’s turning out NHL many NHL ready players.

    Nuts that the presence of signed drafted players in the CHL is precluding that route for CHL grads. CHL and AHL need help. So let’s fix that especially if the Canadian gov’t helps the CHL.

  86. defmn says:

    Georges: “I still think that Holland’s assessment of the team when he became GM was that it was 3-4 years away from competing…”

    Here’s what Holland said the day he was introduced:

    “There’s lots of great pieces in place here… I’d like to think we’re talking playoffs in ’19-20 when you look at some of the young players on this team… We’ve got a core up front, we need to find out how to surround them properly…”

    Holland proceeded to surround the core with vets and Euro pros. You say a shotgun approach. I think the shotgun was aimed in a general direction according to a general plan. He didn’t bring in prospects, he brought in journeymen vets and speedy Euros. Individually, not good bets, but collectively, they served his purpose. A lot of low ceiling plays to avoid the demoralizing big swing and big miss. The more players than spots was calculated. No one was assured of anything. The HC could move players in and out of the lineup as necessary. Find just enough production, just enough compete to develop a formula for winning.

    Oh yeah, he found a taker for Lucic and brought back a consistent 20 goal scorer coming off a bad season after two consecutive trips to the SCF.

    He hired a coach with successful turnarounds on his resume, well regarded by former players. And he brought in a veteran goalie who had history and success with said HC, someone the HC would be comfortable using as cover for the incumbent (as he build up his confidence).

    The HC told Bear to treat his chance to play during TC as opportunity knocking. The HC stuck with the kid the whole season. Both have been rewarded. I think that’s more or less how it works. HC’s have to build their players’ confidence by showing that they have confidence in them. (Remember the two prior HC’s who did their level best to break our players’ confidence/belief systems? Not good times.) With a competent HC, you expect your younger players and prospects to move along, to develop. Bear and Jones were draft+5, Yamamoto was draft+3. They were at that threshold of ready or not.

    “Looking back to last summer when he was making his decision I don’t think there was any suggestion that Jones, Yamomoto, or Bear would make substantial contributions to the team this season or any season in the future.”

    Were these guys already written off at that point? I think they were all in the window where you could expect them to contribute to the team, if they were going to contribute at all. Tippett gave a vote of confidence to Bear in TC. You kinda knew the other two were going to get their chance with the new HC as well. The substantial contribution part applies mostly to Yams. Bless that guy. A PPG callup is a wonderful, wonderful event.

    You had the team at 90 points in Hunter’s Death March. Not sure what you mean by competing/contending and why you think it would take 3-4 years (a lifetime in terms of coaching tenure) to recover. 90 points would have made the team competitive for a playoff spot in the WC. That was Holland’s stated plan. He was thinking playoffs. With your guess of 90 points, you seemed OK with that plan, no…? As in, not too outrageous?

    “So I think Holland was surprised at the success that the team had this year. I think he thought he had three or four years to get this team in shape and the first order of business was to build the back end.”

    My guess is Holland expected the team to be in the mix. From DET, he saw a team that was seriously under performing. Good pieces but not well run or well coached. Two healthy seasons of CMD wasted by failing to crack 80 points in the standings. Pfft. Holland expected to compete for the playoffs with his off season moves. You have to compete with CMD in his 5th season; there are NO excuses. He would have lost the town otherwise: if he got paid $5M, iced a losing, non-competitive team, and then threw some culture and patience “I’ve been in hockey a long time” mumbo jumbo out there. Just like players, a GM has to show… something…

    I’m also guessing he thinks Broberg is really good. Really good defensemen are hard to trade for.

    “I still think that Holland’s assessment of the team when he became GM was that it was 3-4 years away from competing…”

    Here’s what Holland said the day he was introduced:

    “There’s lots of great pieces in place here… I’d like to think we’re talking playoffs in ’19-20 when you look at some of the young players on this team… We’ve got a core up front, we need to find out how to surround them properly…”

    My work experience was in rescuing failed companies for venture capitalists and in politics so I guess I am a little jaded about what is said for public consumption since in my experience it is rarely in the same ballpark as what is said in private. You may have different experience.

    “Holland proceeded to surround the core with vets and Euro pros. You say a shotgun approach. I think the shotgun was aimed in a general direction according to a general plan. He didn’t bring in prospects, he brought in journeymen vets and speedy Euros. Individually, not good bets, but collectively, they served his purpose. A lot of low ceiling plays to avoid the demoralizing big swing and big miss. The more players than spots was calculated. No one was assured of anything. The HC could move players in and out of the lineup as necessary. Find just enough production, just enough compete to develop a formula for winning.”

    This is exactly what I mean by a shotgun approach as opposed to aiming with a rifle. You send out a spray effect and because you have lots of opportunity you expect to hit enough targets while missing with others. I’m not sure what you think that expression means but that is what I think it means.

    “Oh yeah, he found a taker for Lucic and brought back a consistent 20 goal scorer coming off a bad season after two consecutive trips to the SCF.”

    Yes he did and he was universally praised for doing so because the consensus was that it was impossible. Did he know at the draft that he could make that trade? I don’t know, but the perennial 20 goal scorer is not exactly a guy that most think of as an asset either. I know what we think here on a hockey blog is not necessarily how things are viewed by management but I see more calls for a Neal buyout here than I do for him as a top 6 forward so his contract is still an anchor. Just not quite as heavy as the one he traded it for.

    “He hired a coach with successful turnarounds on his resume, well regarded by former players. And he brought in a veteran goalie who had history and success with said HC, someone the HC would be comfortable using as cover for the incumbent (as he build up his confidence).”

    I really like Tippett but I am not sure what this has to do with what I wrote. It is just as easy to write that Tippett had failed to make the playoffs in Phoenix when he last coached. Are you meaning to say that hiring Tippett was a guarantee of success?

    “The HC told Bear to treat his chance to play during TC as opportunity knocking. The HC stuck with the kid the whole season. Both have been rewarded. I think that’s more or less how it works. HC’s have to build their players’ confidence by showing that they have confidence in them. (Remember the two prior HC’s who did their level best to break our players’ confidence/belief systems? Not good times.) With a competent HC, you expect your younger players and prospects to move along, to develop. Bear and Jones were draft+5, Yamamoto was draft+3. They were at that threshold of ready or not.”

    My memory is that the “opportunity knocking” comment was made after Larsson went down with injury. It may seem reasonable to expect players drafted in 2015 to arrive in 2019 but that hardly tells the whole story since both were drafted outside of the top 100 in the 4th and 5th round so expectations for them to become useful and important players can hardly be said to be expected. Bear had had injuries and no development the prior year according to numerous reports as had Yamomoto who was thought to be a risky pick at best due to size and injury concerns by many. I don’t know of one person here who thought that all 3 would be major contributors to team success this year – or any future year for that matter. Some were higher on Yamomoto than others but the injury had stalled optimism.

    “You had the team at 90 points in Hunter’s Death March. Not sure what you mean by competing/contending and why you think it would take 3-4 years (a lifetime in terms of coaching tenure) to recover. 90 points would have made the team competitive for a playoff spot in the WC. That was Holland’s stated plan. He was thinking playoffs. With your guess of 90 points, you seemed OK with that plan, no…? As in, not too outrageous?”

    Yup. 90 pts. Outside the playoffs. And since you ask I generally regard the top 8 regular season teams as the contenders for the cup. There are always exceptions. Nobody thinks there are never exceptions but generally I think the top 8 teams are those with legitimate chances to win the cup in any given year.

    And the reason I thought 3 to 4 years was because of the holes in the lineup.

    Kassian and Yamomoto were not thought to be legitimate options for top 6 play last summer imo so we had 3 top 6 roster players, 3 top 4 dmen because Bear was not seen in that light, no third line centre and the goaltending was highly suspect with both Koskinen and Smith having question marks. That’s a lot to fix with a farm team that also looked pretty sparse in terms of candidates to move up.

    And I was fine with his plan. Never said otherwise. I think because pretty every part of what he did worked and 3 guys arrived with gusto from Bakersfield it happened faster than he expected.

    “I’m also guessing he thinks Broberg is really good. Really good defensemen are hard to trade for.”

    Totally agree. Never thought otherwise. My answer was in response to OP’s comments about wingers being a shorter timeline to develop and I was pointing out why I didn’t think that was important because there were so many holes and problems with the lineup Holland didn’t care if it took another year to develop a dman.

    As to 3-4 years being a lifetime for a coach I would refer you to the last decade and more for this team. Or how long the fans of the NYI’s have waited. Or Montreal. Not to mention Chicago’s wandering in the wilderness for so long I lost count.

  87. Munny says:

    N64: Nuts that the presence of signed drafted players in the CHL is precluding that route for CHL grads. CHL and AHL need help. So let’s fix that especially if the Canadian gov’t helps the CHL.

    Isn’t it the stipend that is the problem? Drafted Tier 2s are eligible for the NCAA.

  88. PennersPancakes says:

    Harpers Hair: Anytime a later fifth round pick turns into anything and is a Hobey Baker finalist, you found a gem.

    Yes but they didnt FIND the gem in the NCAA, they drafted him out of high school -> USHL -> NCAA. The phrasing used made it sound like a free agent they found. Vegas had a late draft pick that developed nicely in the NCAA. Its good news for them.

  89. Material Elvis says:

    N64: We’ll see what wave 2 brings, but Edmonton confirmed cases is at 0.02% of population. Spitballing that let’s guess at.2% infected. Can’t accurately predict what that will look like by the Fall with most biz open (but consumer demand still constrained with covid). But right now can’t see herd immunity arriving here or in BC quicker than better suppression (without sledge hammers),and better preventives and treatments.

    You are correct. Herd immunity will take a long time. I believe R-nought for Covid-19 is 2.2 – 2.6. That means almost 60% of the population would need to have been infected and produced antibodies in order to reach effective herd immunity. In Canada alone we are talking 20 million people infected.

  90. €√¥£€^$ says:

    defmn: Joey Keane
    Charlotte Checkers
    Position: D
    6-0 / 187lbs
    Shoots: R
    Birthdate: 1999-07-02

    One more point than Bouchard in 4 more games. Played for Charlotte and Hartford during the season.

    He was a target for me during his draft. He had an incredible start in Hartford, but cooled off quite a bit in Charlotte.

    He will be a very good NHL Dman within 2 years.

  91. Material Elvis says:

    jfry,

    I think they will attempt playoffs. They will do their best to mitigate the risks involved but I think it has to be done (attempt to re-establish some semblance of ‘normal’ society). There won’t be any program/sport that has a zero risk profile. Indefinite isolation is not tenable.

  92. N64 says:

    Munny: Isn’t it the stipend that is the problem?Drafted Tier 2s are eligible for the NCAA.

    Not exactly. Apparently they could redo the stipends in a way that would match the NCAA rules. The NCAA also has the old amateur rule where you lose amateur status when your team has signed pros on the roster. In the past this has been flagged as the big blocker.

  93. jfry says:

    maybe it’s my perspective as a person living in NYC where subway drivers, ticket takers, nurses, and doctors are dying at nutso levels. but that just means we’re continuing to devalue the lives of first responders for things as small as sport.

    seems ashame.

    lets get on with the draft! we’re all math and fantasy dorks and i’m sure we’d all like to make trades!

    interesting convo today. thanks everyone.

    N64: Not exactly. Apparently they could redo the stipends in a way that would match the NCAA rules. The NCAA also has the old amateur rule where you loseamateur status when your team has signed pros on the roster.

  94. N64 says:

    jfry,

    I could see the CHL not operating this winter. They probably will get gov’t support as an amateur sport. At some point would like the NHL/AHL/WHL agreements to not block the amateur paths for unsigned players.

  95. N64 says:

    Munny: Isn’t it the stipend that is the problem?Drafted Tier 2s are eligible for the NCAA.

    Signed pros are not allowed to continue in tier 2.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Another player of note in the same ballpark is 2016 sixth round pick Chase Priskie who was Rafferty’s teammate at Quinnipiac.
    Now in the STL system.

    Solid offensive numbers – another older player though – recently turned 24 so this was his “23 year old season”.

    Its becoming even more clear how impressive Bouchard’s rookie pro 20-year old season really was.

    When we look at his first half/second half splits and the improvement on both sides of the puck (especially in relation to the team), its tough not to get excited.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: I heard that the AHL board of governors is considering implementing a new rule regarding the age of players that are eligible to be considered as a rookie.
    Stockton Heat front office executive Darrell S. Fairweather was quoted as saying
    “No player over the age of 23 should ever be regarded as a rookie”

    Brogan Rafferty is the Makarov of the AHL…..

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    PennersPancakes: The timing seems a little off unless some of Lagesson/Samurokov/Broberg make a big jump this season. If you move nurse you have one of them in the top 4, and 2 if Klefbom (not an iron man candidate) goes down.

    With this organization anything is possible. Im not one to be old school hockey but if the Oilers walk away from Nurse and/or Larsson the D gets a little bit softer. Dont need enforcers but end of the day this is a contact sport.

    … Although Samorukov does have some highlight hits.

    One forgot one Caleb Jones that performed admirably in a decent sample size as 2LD in Klefbom’s absence this year.

    The potential to move on from Nurse in a year (for cap space and for value return) is essentially contingent on Jones’ development this year (and, potentially, Samorukov’s development).

    Jones has, in my opinion, solidified himself as an every day NHL d-man and has shown the potential to do so at a top 4 – he’s not there as a top 4 but he may be in a year. If he is, $850K……

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: That’s just as likely but ‘depth’ is not what I would be hoping for with a top ten pick. This team does not have a true #1 dman while it does have 2 true #1 centres so from that perspective the defence is the place that needed upgrading if the goal is Stanley.

    In any case I was trying to explain to OP why I could see Holland not regarding the shorter development path of a winger as important since the team last summer didn’t look like a short term contender.

    I understand the premise of the above post (and the one prior – thank you for that thoughtful response) and those premises are fair and may be true.

    I’m not sure that “depth” is the word I would use for the Broberg pick in this conversation but more about succession and sustainability.

    Whether Holland saw this team as a contender this season, in 3-4 seasons or somewhere in between, he was clear that he wasn’t interested in building a “one and done” contender but a team that would make the playoffs year after year after year giving them multiple shots at championships.

    Broberg fits that as a succession plan to Nurse and/or Klefbom in due time and due course. Of course there are guys like Jones and Sammy in the conversation but this was another bullet in the chamber – Holland has been express on how important defence is to championship teams.

  100. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Solid offensive numbers – another older player though – recently turned 24 so this was his “23 year old season”.

    Its becoming even more clear how impressive Bouchard’s rookie pro 20-year old season really was.

    When we look at his first half/second half splits and the improvement on both sides of the puck (especially in relation to the team), its tough not to get excited.

    Defensemen usually hit their prime at 25-26 years of age,

    Nothing wrong with adding a player entering his prime.

    Projecting straight line development for young players is folly.

    Many of them, and we’ve seen this with more than a few Oiler players, get one years experience five times.

    In his most recent look at Bouchard at the Athletic, LT suggested Bouchards upside is second pairing and that’s what I’ve said all along.

    Rafferty and Priskie both have that upside too…it’ll just be sooner.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: How I see it as well. The $12.5 price tag for Connor means he has to be able to make guys like Kassian and AA viable line mates.

    Don’t disagree – would add ELC value-contract to the list of wingers – Yamamoto becoming a legit top 6 winger on his ELC was a boon – if Benson could do the same (or Lavoie at some point), that would be fantastic.

    I don’t see it happening but, from a high level, I could see Benson on McDavid’s left wing working – Benson is not a puck transporter but he knows how to get the puck to the transporter and he knows how to find guys in the offensive zone.

    Speed is not essential to playing with McDavid but offensive smarts and timing is (see Maroon).

    I don’t know about the defensive acument of a Benson/McDavid/Kassian line mind you.

  102. Munny says:

    N64: Signed pros are not allowed to continue in tier 2.

    Yes, but only really high end prospects typically sign at 18 yrs old. If someone wanted to go to Harvard to play from the Oil Kings after finishing HS, so19, drafted mid-2nd say, it should be possible, but I don’t think it is.

    Edit: I haven’t googled, so I am by no means certain.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    I think there were a couple of things in play last draft:

    1.I think Holland knew there would be more Round 1 defensemen available last draft and more quality forwards available this draft.By going D in 2019 and F in 2020 he would have two higher quality players in the system, than if he did it the other way around.(Assuming they take a F this Round 1)

    2.It was the beginning of the New Holland regime, and he is aware Dmen take longer to develop. This goes back to the drum I was beating in 2010-2 when posting as spOILer…taking high end Fs first in a full team rebuild will not end up well (and it didn’t).

    3.He knew the USHL kids inside and out and maybe didn’t see as high a potential ceiling in those Fs as others did.Scouts are also famous for marking those prospects they see more frequently harder… the cracks begin to appear if you stare at the Mona Lisa long enough.So maybe some of that too.

    But we do know from the article HH posted yesterday that VCR’s Director of Amateur Scouting also wanted Broberg, so there was some love there for the player in that range.I think a BPA case can be made for his reasoning.

    Good post.

    One other thing (kind of related to point 1), I think Holland “read the draft” somewhat well and anticipated the run on d-men that occured in the first round leading to some high skill forwards dropping.

    Obviously Lavoie isn’t on the same tier of prospect as Zegras but I think Holland was confidant he would get a high potential skill forward.

    I think Lavoie was generally rated much higher than 38th – I believe as high as 19 on some lists.

  104. Harpers Hair says:

    Some good news from Vancouver Island.

    No new cases over the weekend and only ONE person in hospital on the entire Island.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Your point #2 is what I was trying to say. He saw this team as further away from contending than it looks like now. Picking up 3 very useful players in Bear, Yamo and Jones that were not expected easily shortens the time line by two years from what he probably thought he was getting into.

    I’m not sure I would include Kailer in that group.

    I know that many (some) fans were down on his development and his potential but there were also many (some) that weren’t and often based on viewings of his play in the AHL and/or on reports thereon.

    Injury was a concern but he was a dynamite player at the AHL level, even last season, and a scoring chance creating machine.

    Of all people, I think Holland knows about reasonable development timelines of prospects and that was Yamamoto’s first year of pro last year.

    Of course, noone expected his run in the 28 games (or so) that he played but to projected him as a legit possibility for top 6 winger within 6-18 months (fromt he beginning of last season) wouldn’t be unreasonable – in my opinion.

  106. Georges says:

    defmn,

    “My work experience was in rescuing failed companies for venture capitalists and in politics so I guess I am a little jaded about what is said for public consumption since in my experience it is rarely in the same ballpark as what is said in private. You may have different experience.”

    I’ve never heard anything Holland has said in private.

    In public, he said “I’m thinking playoffs” when he was hired, he said “I’m not talking rebuild. I’m talking about we’ve got to compete for a playoff spot” on the eve of the season, on Dec. 20th, he said “My goal was for us to be competitive and in the playoff hunt in March and we started well.”, on Jan. 6, he said “When you’ve got Connor McDavid, the window is now” and “I believe the window to try to be in the playoffs is now. We’re in the race.”

    And at the trade deadline, he gave up picks to secure NHL players.

    The stuff he was putting out for public consumption follows a pattern. It’s the pattern of a GM who expects his team to compete now, not later. He wasn’t talking up how bad a situation he inherited and how long it’ll take him to sort it out. He could’ve but he didn’t.

    We may have different experience but not sure we have different information. My experience is that you can’t orchestrate a turnaround by talking out of the side of your mouth to the folks who have to see the turnaround through.

    “This is exactly what I mean by a shotgun approach as opposed to aiming with a rifle. You send out a spray effect and because you have lots of opportunity you expect to hit enough targets while missing with others. I’m not sure what you think that expression means but that is what I think it means.”

    You followed your shotgun comment with “That is not the approach of a GM who thinks the team is ready to contend imo.” in your original post. Which suggest you see a shotgun approach as being inconsistent with a plan to win near term. Otoh, your follow up comment says that a shotgun approach can “hit enough targets”. Which is what I was getting at. That you could do what Holland did and still expect to contend. You seem to be thinking contending is contending for the Cup. I believe Holland felt contending meant contending for a playoff spot. And he took steps that in his mind would ensure his team would do just that. The team had league best options at forward and too few options at forward, no natural 1D or even an offensive threat at D, and hot and cold tandem goaltending. So, yeah, tough to compete for the Cup unless some of that gets fixed up. Too bad the season ended, because Holland’s trade deadline deals brought in some very interesting players that could’ve addressed the team’s forward depth problems. We’ll never know.

    “I really like Tippett but I am not sure what this has to do with what I wrote. It is just as easy to write that Tippett had failed to make the playoffs in Phoenix when he last coached. Are you meaning to say that hiring Tippett was a guarantee of success?”

    I meant that Holland hired a coach who led two successful turnarounds. PC hired a coach who had only coached (either as an assistant or as HC) flagship franchises, never a struggling one. You’ve cited your own experience in these situations. I’m assuming you believe experience matters. I do too.

    Hiring Tippett (and giving him a short leash 3 year contract) is the kind of move you make when you want to contend now, not 3-4 years from now. And, yeah, I think hiring Tippett guaranteed the team would contend for the playoffs: success if you will. The last two coaches were net negatives for this team; results under them were worse than what they should have reasonably been.

    Holland points to this when he says “When you’ve got Connor McDavid, the window is now”. Because, yeah, that’s RE when you have CMD. Tippett isn’t a negative for this team. He’s coached struggling teams that had barely enough talent to compete. He seems to prefer building up his players; a favorite quote of his is put players in a position where they can succeed, another is the lovely you have to find ways to stay in a game. He seems direct, sincere, and plain spoken. And he’s been out of the league two years. A brush with coaching mortality as it were. He shows up hungry and the contract makes sure he stays hungry. Holland removed a negative and brought in a positive. More than enough to have the team contend.

    Your comments on Bear, Jones, and Yams as being uncertain to be useful and important players are fair. We’ll see by the end of Tippett’s reign whether the trajectories of some of the younger players changed under his watch. I’m really not sure what the results in the AHL can tell us about results in the NHL, how much development happens down there. A lot of it might be luck and timing at the NHL level, playing for the right HC who happens to be looking for an answer to a question. And is willing to give you more than a couple of tries to come up with something. You make the right play and your confidence goes way up, you avoid getting blown up on a crucial play and instead you make the right read and do something good for your team. I mean, how different are these players anyway?

    Tippett has shown a lot of commitment to Bear, even when Bear has played losing 5v5 minutes. I think the coaching staff keeps encouraging the kid to compete and make plays, and sure enough the kid does. It’s really something, because, as you’ve pointed out, neither Bear nor Jones have draft pedigree. They’re orphans from the old regime. Tippett, like honey badger, don’t care…

    (The opportunity knocking bit was after the Persson injury in TC.)

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    OriginalPouzar,

    “Once it starts to effect the potential of a complete 82 game 2020/21”

    why is the 82 games important?I have seen this from a few ppl.

    it does not matter to me, I am curious why it does to others …

    I am happy with a 48 game season, 64 games, 70 games, 82 games …. all would be fine with me for 2020/21

    It matters to the league and they have stated that from the very beginning.

    Of course, positions and stances change over time with circumstances but, at the very beginning, the league was very clear that having a full and complete 82 game schedule was paramount over finishing the current season.

    They may have softened on that position with the potential that 82 games with fans may not be a realistic option but that would be the goal.

    Of course, this is revenue driven and that makes sense.

    I care about how many games. Of course, if they can only do 48 for safety reasons then I will accept that but I would prefer as much of a “normal season” as possible and the league would as well (me as a fan and the league for revenues – which effects the game, contract, the CBA, the cap, etc.).

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Has the CMD interview on in the background: so boring.

    – I mean they tried hard but CMD is just not comfortable in these things and/or had the media training to not say much.

    – Plus doesn’t watch hockey hasn’t watch the old time stuff no hobbies no comment when talking about his team. Nothing insightful or personal.No observations

    – He’s a very humble guy on camera.

    He was a bit better on Spittin’ Chiclets last week.

  109. Harpers Hair says:

    Everything you didn’t want know about a Brogan Rafferty.

    https://canucksarmy.com/2020/05/11/raff/

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Without delving deeply into it, I have the general sense that NCAA hockey is increasing its role in developing NHL players.

    This may be driven from the bottom as the USHL has really upped the ante.

    While the development process takes longer, it’s turning outmany NHL ready players.

    There is a benefit of drafting players going the college route – much more runway to sign them and, as you mention, they can be developed for longer outside of being signed and playing pro hockey.

  111. N64 says:

    Munny,

    Straight from the NCAA college hockey page:

    “Because the CHL includes players who have signed professional contracts, the NCAA considers it a professional league. Therefore, players who have played a game – even an exhibition game – in the CHL are deemed ineligible for NCAA competition.”

    There you go. One signed player (overage or otherwise) and the whole CHL is a no go zone. This is what I was emphasizing. I’ve heard the stipend thing could be fixed more easily.

    update: This type of language seems extreme. But it has roots that go all the way back to Eastern Canada’s “Hockey Wars”. Anyone with a copy of “A Great Game: The Forgotten Leafs and the Rise of Professional Hockey” might be able to give us the exact history.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    MLB owners to vote on a plan that would require at least 48% of revenues to go to the players.

    Its like they are moving towards a 50% revenue share scenario, ala the NHL.

    Sounds like the players will reject as “revenue sharing is essentially a salary cap”

    https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1259957402377617418

  113. Glovjuice says:

    jtblack: more to your point LT.CoVID-19 is not going to go away in July or October or 2021. It will be here for a while.even once a vaccine comes along, there are no gurantees covid will be irradicated.

    So I think countries have to learn to manage with Covid as part of the culture. Individuals will have to act to whatever degree of risk they choose.More vulnerable groups may not venture our much at all, which others may live fairly normal lives.

    I don’t see large gatherings being allowed anytime soon. So doubt going to a game would be an option.

    Interesting times. Safety does matter, but life has to find a way to move forward or the collateral damage will be far worse than the virus itself.Does that mean NHL hockey will be played? Don’t know. But I think there is a way they can play NHL hockey and keep players and staff as safe as the rest of us.

    There is no way a contact sport can be played in a way to make the players “as safe as the rest of us”. Impossible. Even with those wacky ideas circulating today.

  114. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: One forgot one Caleb Jones that performed admirably in a decent sample size as 2LD in Klefbom’s absence this year.

    The potential to move on from Nurse in a year (for cap space and for value return) is essentially contingent on Jones’ development this year (and, potentially, Samorukov’s development).

    Jones has, in my opinion, solidified himself as an every day NHL d-man and has shown the potential to do so at a top 4 – he’s not there as a top 4 but he may be in a year.If he is, $850K……

    Klefbom and Nurse are irreplaceable for two more full seasons. Arguably Nurse for longer, because he brings some unique capabilities.

    The Nurse haters came out of lockdown today.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Defensemen usually hit their prime at 25-26 years of age,

    Nothing wrong with adding a player entering his prime.

    Projecting straight line development for young players is folly.

    Many of them, and we’ve seen this with more than a few Oiler players, get one years experience five times.

    In his most recent look at Bouchard at the Athletic, LT suggested Bouchards upside is secondpairing and that’s what I’ve said all along.

    Rafferty and Priskie both have that upside too…it’ll just be sooner.

    I agree that d-men generally hit their prime around 25-26 and there is nothing wrong with adding a player that’s a bit older.

    At the same time, you are a person that likes to say “good d-men show themselves early” so……

    Given d-men hit their prime at 25-26, its even MORE impressive what Bouchard did at 20 – just wow.

    LT sees Bouchard’s potential as a 2nd pairing PP guy but, in the same article, Willis sees him as a top pairing – interesting choice of which option to present.

    Of course, noone projects Rafferty to have anywhere near the ceiling of Bouchard as an NHL player or as an offensive producer. Well, maybe one person does.

  116. Glovjuice says:

    defmn: I still think that Holland’s assessment of the team when he became GM was that it was 3-4 years away from competing and that, to some extent, played into his decision to start at the back end.

    This explains the timing better.

    Looking back to last summer when he was making his decision I don’t think there was any suggestion that Jones, Yamomoto, or Bear would make substantial contributions to the team this season or any season in the future.

    There was still lots of talk that Draisaitl was a product of playing with McDavid which you still heard for the first half of this season from a lot of eastern media. Larsson had had two seasons in a row that were less than expected.

    Lucic was a boat anchor of a contract.

    Just look at how he proceeded with his signings. It was a real shotgun approach with more players than spots on the team and most of the contracts could be buried in the AHL if they didn’t work out.

    That is not the approach of a GM who thinks the team is ready to contend imo.

    So I think Holland was surprised at the success that the team had this year. I think he thought he had three or four years to get this team in shape and the first order of business was to build the back end.

    Then Jones and Bear surprised him. Draisaitl was finally slotted into the spot he had to claim in order for this team to succeed.Koskinen provided goal tending above what many expected.

    Its easy to see why Holland would think the team needed 3-4 years to recover from the previous 3-4 years of decisions.

    Can you imagine? 3-4 STILL? This is then EIGHT years after McDavid was drafted (maybe 7 but STILL) until the Oilers will finally be considered contenders by their GM. Incredible, really, when you think hard about it. Almost like thinking that the Big Bang or God are anything but absurd.

  117. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree that d-men generally hit their prime around 25-26 and there is nothing wrong with adding a player that’s a bit older.

    At the same time, you are a person that likes to say “good d-men show themselves early” so……

    Given d-men hit their prime at 25-26, its even MORE impressive what Bouchard did at 20 – just wow.

    LT sees Bouchard’s potential as a 2nd pairing PP guy but, in the same article, Willis sees him as a top pairing – interesting choice of which option to present.

    Of course, noone projects Rafferty to have anywhere near the ceiling of Bouchard as an NHL player or as an offensive producer. Well, maybe one person does.

  118. Harpers Hair says:

    Harpers Hair:

    If both have the potential to be second pairing D who put up points…there you go.

    I know you think he’s the next Bobby Orr..but he isn’t.

  119. Glovjuice says:

    JimmyV1965: My comment is probably a tad bit hyperbolic. Nothing about covid can be said with any certainty because testing has been atrocious and the lack of information two months out is miserable.

    I guess the point I’m making is that life has inherent risk.At some point you have to accept the risk, make smart decisions and move forward. Canada has 5,000 deaths right now. I would say a handful of those are amongst the 18-44 year old group, with no underlying health conditions. We’ve probably had more people in that age range die from motor vehicles during that time.

    Maybe I’m wrong about concussions. But NHL players take a risk every time they lace up.

    I tad. Ya think. Man, what an obvious ignorance of the stats on COVID-19.

  120. Glovjuice says:

    defmn: How I see it as well. The $12.5 price tag for Connor means he has to be able to make guys like Kassian and AA viable line mates.

    Yeah, agreed. McDavid will end up being the highest paid player in the league for a decade straight when its all said and done and needs to deliver like Crosby has in this regard with respect to shit wingers. Or, will Petrilangelo eclipse McDavid in salary?

  121. Scungilli Slushy says:

    N64: The smallest problem is the sample size of 100.

    “One of the reasons for [Giesecke’s]confidence is a new coronavirus test that has been performed on blood donors in the Stockholm region. It showed that at least 11 out of 100 have developed antibodies”.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/21/sweden-600000-coronavirus-infections-in-stockholm-by-may-1-model-estimates/#548c3d1478d6

    Now blood banks are a neat place to go back to find blood donated for the usual reasons to see the antibody levels. A larger study in the Netherlands estimated IFT .81%

    But what would we do if our small sample included an unknown number of contributions to the blood bankspecifically made by recovered patients to make antibody serum?

    Of course we would do what Giesecke’s Institute did the very next day. We’d retract the paper.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/22/sweden-health-agency-withdraws-controversial-coronavirus-report/#7cdac8414349

    I hear you.

    He’ll be proven correct in the end.

    The issue is the large number of infected already aren’t currently known.

    It’s common sense.

    He’s not a man with a lack of experience. Either way things will go as they will. At least in most of Canada it’s not outrageous and herd immunity will happen before a vaccine almost certainly.

    Good evening friends.

  122. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: If both have the potential to be second pairing D who put up points…there you go.

    I know you think he’s the next Bobby Orr..but he isn’t.

    You don’t need to be silly. There’s no way you believe Rafferty is going to score as many NHL points over the next 5 years (say) than Bouchard.

  123. jp says:

    Glovjuice: There is no way a contact sport can be played in a way to make the players “as safe as the rest of us”. Impossible. Even with those wacky ideas circulating today.

    Regular testing and/or quarantine of the player pool could keep the players safer than the rest of us.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: You don’t need to be silly. There’s no way you believe Rafferty is going to score as many NHL points over the next 5 years (say) than Bouchard.

    He’s already stated that he wouldn’t trade Rafferty straight up for any of Bouchard, Klefbom or Bear.

    Extrapolate from that what you will.

  125. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Interesting that NHL teams will be able to run a 30 man roster if, as proposed, the league tries to stage a playoff tournament as referenced in the AHL story posted above.
    Who do the Oilers call up?

    I posted this a few days ago.

    How about an Oilers 28-man roster for the remainder of this season, if they return? Seems like a reasonable guess on how the season/playoffs might roll out. (or maybe 30?)

    Athanasiou-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
    Ennis-Sheahan-Archibald
    Neal-Khaira-Chiasson
    Nygard-Haas-Russell
    Benson-Granlund

    Nurse-Bear
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Jones-Green
    Russell-Benning
    Lagesson-Bouchard

    Koskinen-Smith
    Skinner

    That’s 30. Would be tough to pare it down to 28 actually.

  126. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m not sure that “depth” is the word I would use for the Broberg pick in this conversation but more about succession and sustainability.

    That was my point as well. Choosing a player in the top 10 of a draft is not where you are looking to add depth. That is where you are hoping for top end.

  127. jp says:

    JimmyV1965: My comment is probably a tad bit hyperbolic. Nothing about covid can be said with any certainty because testing has been atrocious and the lack of information two months out is miserable.

    I guess the point I’m making is that life has inherent risk. At some point you have to accept the risk, make smart decisions and move forward. Canada has 5,000 deaths right now. I would say a handful of those are amongst the 18-44 year old group, with no underlying health conditions. We’ve probably had more people in that age range die from motor vehicles during that time.

    Maybe I’m wrong about concussions. But NHL players take a risk every time they lace up.

    Sure, players take risks to play. Definitely a hyperbolic statement though and pretty bold if you’re acknowledging not much about Covid is known with certainty.

  128. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: You don’t need to be silly. There’s no way you believe Rafferty is going to score as many NHL points over the next 5 years (say) than Bouchard.

    Sure I do…but it will be close.

    In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

    It isn’t just me.

  129. Munny says:

    N64:
    Munny,

    Straight from the NCAA college hockey page:

    “Because the CHL includes players who have signed professional contracts, the NCAA considers it a professional league. Therefore, players who have played a game – even an exhibition game – in the CHL are deemed ineligible for NCAA competition.”

    There you go. One signed player (overage or otherwise) and the whole CHL is a no go zone. This is what I was emphasizing. I’ve heard the stipend thing could be fixed more easily.

    update: This type of language seems extreme. But it has roots that go all the way back to Eastern Canada’s “Hockey Wars”. Anyone with a copy of “A Great Game: The Forgotten Leafs and the Rise of Professional Hockey” might be able to give us the exact history.

    Thank you, sir. Does seem strong.

    Tier 2 has a well-established relationship with the NCAA and their scholarship program.

    This seems to imply that if say Khaira, or anyone from Tier 2, had signed a contract after being drafted, all of those scholarships (and they are numerous, with NCAA schools dependent on that pipeline) would disappear in a puff of “logic”. Forever and ever.

  130. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Sure I do…but it will be close.

    In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

    It isn’t just me.

    I wonder where Rafferty would go in a… hmm… 2013 re-draft?

  131. Munny says:

    I’m not saying Wesley went full Steve Smith there, but he went full Steve Smith there.

    Worse actually, as he took two cracks at his own net.

  132. defmn says:

    Georges:
    defmn,

    In public, he said “I’m thinking playoffs” when he was hired, he said “I’m not talking rebuild. I’m talking about we’ve got to compete for a playoff spot” on the eve of the season, on Dec. 20th, he said “My goal was for us to be competitive and in the playoff hunt in March and we started well.”, on Jan. 6, he said “When you’ve got Connor McDavid, the window is now” and “I believe the window to try to be in the playoffs is now. We’re in the race.”

    And at the trade deadline, he gave up picks to secure NHL players.

    The stuff he was putting out for public consumption follows a pattern. It’s the pattern of a GM who expects his team to compete now, not later. He wasn’t talking up how bad a situation he inherited and how long it’ll take him to sort it out. He could’ve but he didn’t.

    We may have different experience but not sure we have different information. My experience is that you can’t orchestrate a turnaround by talking out of the side of your mouth to the folks who have to see the turnaround through.

    “This is exactly what I mean by a shotgun approach as opposed to aiming with a rifle. You send out a spray effect and because you have lots of opportunity you expect to hit enough targets while missing with others. I’m not sure what you think that expression means but that is what I think it means.”

    You followed your shotgun comment with “That is not the approach of a GM who thinks the team is ready to contend imo.” in your original post. Which suggest you see a shotgun approach as being inconsistent with a plan to win near term. Otoh, your follow up comment says that a shotgun approach can “hit enough targets”. Which is what I was getting at. That you could do what Holland did and still expect to contend. You seem to be thinking contending is contending for the Cup. I believe Holland felt contending meant contending for a playoff spot. And he took steps that in his mind would ensure his team would do just that. The team had league best options at forward and too few options at forward, no natural 1D or even an offensive threat at D, and hot and cold tandem goaltending. So, yeah, tough to compete for the Cup unless some of that gets fixed up. Too bad the season ended, because Holland’s trade deadline deals brought in some very interesting players that could’ve addressed the team’s forward depth problems. We’ll never know.

    “I really like Tippett but I am not sure what this has to do with what I wrote. It is just as easy to write that Tippett had failed to make the playoffs in Phoenix when he last coached. Are you meaning to say that hiring Tippett was a guarantee of success?”

    I meant that Holland hired a coach who led two successful turnarounds. PC hired a coach who had only coached (either as an assistant or as HC) flagship franchises, never a struggling one. You’ve cited your own experience in these situations. I’m assuming you believe experience matters. I do too.

    Hiring Tippett (and giving him a short leash 3 year contract) is the kind of move you make when you want to contend now, not 3-4 years from now. And, yeah, I think hiring Tippett guaranteed the team would contend for the playoffs: success if you will. The last two coaches were net negatives for this team; results under them were worse than what they should have reasonably been.

    Holland points to this when he says “When you’ve got Connor McDavid, the window is now”. Because, yeah, that’s RE when you have CMD. Tippett isn’t a negative for this team. He’s coached struggling teams that had barely enough talent to compete. He seems to prefer building up his players; a favorite quote of his is put players in a position where they can succeed, another is the lovely you have to find ways to stay in a game. He seems direct, sincere, and plain spoken. And he’s been out of the league two years. A brush with coaching mortality as it were. He shows up hungry and the contract makes sure he stays hungry. Holland removed a negative and brought in a positive. More than enough to have the team contend.

    Your comments on Bear, Jones, and Yams as being uncertain to be useful and important players are fair. We’ll see by the end of Tippett’s reign whether the trajectories of some of the younger players changed under his watch. I’m really not sure what the results in the AHL can tell us about results in the NHL, how much development happens down there. A lot of it might be luck and timing at the NHL level, playing for the right HC who happens to be looking for an answer to a question. And is willing to give you more than a couple of tries to come up with something. You make the right play and your confidence goes way up, you avoid getting blown up on a crucial play and instead you make the right read and do something good for your team. I mean, how different are these players anyway?

    Tippett has shown a lot of commitment to Bear, even when Bear has played losing 5v5 minutes. I think the coaching staff keeps encouraging the kid to compete and make plays, and sure enough the kid does. It’s really something, because, as you’ve pointed out, neither Bear nor Jones have draft pedigree. They’re orphans from the old regime. Tippett, like honey badger, don’t care…

    (The opportunity knocking bit was after the Persson injury in TC.)

    In public, he said “I’m thinking playoffs” when he was hired, he said “I’m not talking rebuild. I’m talking about we’ve got to compete for a playoff spot” on the eve of the season, on Dec. 20th, he said “My goal was for us to be competitive and in the playoff hunt in March and we started well.”, on Jan. 6, he said “When you’ve got Connor McDavid, the window is now” and “I believe the window to try to be in the playoffs is now. We’re in the race.”

    All true but I don’t know of one single GM or HC who would say anything different in the same situation. As far as I know this is standard new hire commentary. That’s all.

    “And at the trade deadline, he gave up picks to secure NHL players.”

    Agreed. But that doesn’t say anything about his expectations going into the draft last summer which is what the Broberg pick was about. The team did really well this year. I think better than Holland expected. You think he expected the team to do this well. But the additions at the deadline were based upon what they did as opposed to anything else I would think.

    The stuff he was putting out for public consumption follows a pattern. It’s the pattern of a GM who expects his team to compete now, not later. He wasn’t talking up how bad a situation he inherited and how long it’ll take him to sort it out. He could’ve but he didn’t.

    “We may have different experience but not sure we have different information. My experience is that you can’t orchestrate a turnaround by talking out of the side of your mouth to the folks who have to see the turnaround through.”

    Again. Every GM does this. Or at least every successful GM does this. GM’s have two jobs. To put a winning team together and to put bums in the seats for his owner so he can make money. Presenting a positive outlook is part of both of those jobs imo.

    “You followed your shotgun comment with “That is not the approach of a GM who thinks the team is ready to contend imo.” in your original post. Which suggest you see a shotgun approach as being inconsistent with a plan to win near term. Otoh, your follow up comment says that a shotgun approach can “hit enough targets”. Which is what I was getting at. That you could do what Holland did and still expect to contend. You seem to be thinking contending is contending for the Cup. I believe Holland felt contending meant contending for a playoff spot. And he took steps that in his mind would ensure his team would do just that. The team had league best options at forward and too few options at forward, no natural 1D or even an offensive threat at D, and hot and cold tandem goaltending. So, yeah, tough to compete for the Cup unless some of that gets fixed up. Too bad the season ended, because Holland’s trade deadline deals brought in some very interesting players that could’ve addressed the team’s forward depth problems. We’ll never know.”

    You are correct. I see “contending” as for the Cup rather than for a playoff first round exit. The “shotgun” comment was not meant in a pejorative way. He did exactly the right thing imo. He had holes everywhere in the bottom six – at least – and so rather than using one bullet to target a particular spot – as many here wanted in the form of a top 6 winger – he sprayed his ammunition like a shotgun does so that he could hit many more targets hoping some of them would work. And they did. Just like he wanted. But a GM of a contending team doesn’t do that because a contending team doesn’t have a bunch of holes in the lineup. He takes aim at one or maybe two players. He uses a rifle rather than a shotgun approach with a narrower focus.

    “I meant that Holland hired a coach who led two successful turnarounds. PC hired a coach who had only coached (either as an assistant or as HC) flagship franchises, never a struggling one. You’ve cited your own experience in these situations. I’m assuming you believe experience matters. I do too.

    Hiring Tippett (and giving him a short leash 3 year contract) is the kind of move you make when you want to contend now, not 3-4 years from now. And, yeah, I think hiring Tippett guaranteed the team would contend for the playoffs: success if you will. The last two coaches were net negatives for this team; results under them were worse than what they should have reasonably been.”

    Fair enough and as I said I really liked the Tippett hire the moment I heard of it. I just think there were a lot of holes in the top 12 core positions and that filling more than two of those holes in any one season is usually as much as can be hoped for. Many teams don’t move forward by even one core position per season. This is why I find it remarkable that a) the goalies worked reasonably well b) three kids from Bakersfield cam in and performed at a high level, c) the shotgun fixed the PK and fourth line pretty well d) chemistry with Nuge-Leon-Yamomoto was almost instantaneous. It’s not surprising to me that some of these things worked. It is surprising to me that they all did.

    “Holland points to this when he says “When you’ve got Connor McDavid, the window is now”. Because, yeah, that’s RE when you have CMD. Tippett isn’t a negative for this team. He’s coached struggling teams that had barely enough talent to compete. He seems to prefer building up his players; a favorite quote of his is put players in a position where they can succeed, another is the lovely you have to find ways to stay in a game. He seems direct, sincere, and plain spoken. And he’s been out of the league two years. A brush with coaching mortality as it were. He shows up hungry and the contract makes sure he stays hungry. Holland removed a negative and brought in a positive. More than enough to have the team contend.”

    Totally agree. The coaching has been a joy to watch.

    “(The opportunity knocking bit was after the Persson injury in TC.)”

    My mistake. Old memory. I knew it was the result of an injury and thought it was Larsson’s.

  133. godot10 says:

    defmn: That was my point as well. Choosing a player in the top 10 of a draft is not where you are looking to add depth. That is where you are hoping for top end.

    Holland was drafting Klefbom’s replacement, to insure continuity of a contending level defense, when an injury-prone 30-year old Klefbom looks for a big retirement contract.

    A smooth transition from Klefbom Nurse to Broberg Nurse in three years on the left side of the D.

    McDavid and Draisaitl and a solid D means consistent contending. Wingers are easy to find. D much harder.

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: That was my point as well. Choosing a player in the top 10 of a draft is not where you are looking to add depth. That is where you are hoping for top end.

    To be, if he proves to be real succession for our incumbent 1LD or 2LD, that is fine value for 8th overall.

    Darnell Nurse himself was picked in that range and I think that is fine value there.

    YMMV.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    MLB planning to re-open July 4 weekend.

    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/11/us/mlb-season-july-trnd/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

    The league proposal will be present to the players association tomorrow – that’s a pretty big hurdle – hopefully they jump it!

  136. defmn says:

    godot10: Holland was drafting Klefbom’s replacement, to insure continuity of a contending level defense, when an injury-prone 30-year old Klefbom looks for a big retirement contract.

    A smooth transition from Klefbom Nurse to Broberg Nurse in three years on the left side of the D.

    McDavid and Draisaitl and a solid D means consistent contending.Wingers are easy to find.D much harder.

    That would be my assessment as well.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Sure I do…but it will be close.

    In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

    It isn’t just me.

    I must have missed where The Hockey News made a prediction on Rafferty’s future production……

    Where has Rafferty been ranked on lists of the top prospects outside the NHL? I must have missed him in those lists….

  138. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I must have missed where The Hockey News made a prediction on Rafferty’s future production……

    Where has Rafferty been ranked on lists of the top prospects outside the NHL?I must have missed him in those lists….

    You’re like a race horse with blinders on.

    You can only see one way to an an NHL career.

    Brian Rafalski was never ranked, never drafted and didn’t begin his NHL career until he was 26.

    He ended up playing 833 NHL games, won three Stanley Cups and was an all star.

    This after four years in NCAA just like Rafferty.

    Luckily, the meat heads in the game who could only see the draft and develop model in the traditional way are pretty much gone from the game and smart teams are exploiting a long standing market inefficiency.

    There are dozens of other examples.

  139. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: I wonder where Rafferty would go in a… hmm… 2013 re-draft?

    I wonder where Artemi Panarin would go in a 2012 re-draft?

  140. Georges says:

    defmn,

    That was a pleasant interaction. Thank you.

  141. Material Elvis says:

    Harpers Hair: Sure I do…but it will be close.

    In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

    It isn’t just me.

    The Hockey News 2014 redraft: not even close to the original draft order.
    The Hockey News 2019 redraft: not much change from the original draft order.

    My take away: the 2019 redraft will not look very accurate five years from now; a trivial drop in Bouchard’s ranking is meaningless at this point.

  142. defmn says:

    Georges:
    defmn,

    That was a pleasant interaction. Thank you.

    I always enjoy your posts.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: You’re like a race horse with blinders on.

    You can only see one way to an an NHL career.

    Brian Rafalski was never ranked, never drafted and didn’t begin his NHL career until he was 26.

    He ended up playing 833 NHL games, won three Stanley Cups and was an all star.

    This after four years in NCAA just like Rafferty.

    Luckily, the meat heads in the game who could only see the draft and develop model in the traditional way are pretty much gone from the game and smart teams are exploiting a long standing market inefficiency.

    There are dozens of other examples.

    I’m not saying the Brogran Rafferty can’t have an NHL career – I’m saying that his likelihood to have one, his potential, his offensive ceiling, his value are all dwarfed by Evan Bouchard, materially dwarfed.

    That’s my opinion and I think its highly defensible.

  144. N64 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I hear you.

    He’ll be proven correct in the end.

    The issue is the large number of infected already aren’t currently known.

    It’s common sense.

    He’s not a man with a lack of experience. Either way things will go as they will. At least in most of Canada it’s not outrageous and herd immunity will happen before a vaccine almost certainly.

    Good evening friends.

    Ha. Common sense includes looking at the serology samples down with much larger sample sizes in areas where there was more disease. Hard to work with frequencies around your serology test error rates.

    Not very motivational results, but those 1/2-1% IFR estimates work out to 10-20 infections for every confirmed case. That would include asymptomatic cases, ignored mild symptoms, and mild cases where testing was never provided. Cheers.

  145. N64 says:

    Munny: Thank you, sir. Does seem strong.

    Tier 2 has a well-established relationship with the NCAA and their scholarship program.

    This seems to imply that if say Khaira, or anyone from Tier 2, had signed a contract after being drafted, all of those scholarships (and they are numerous, with NCAA schools dependent on that pipeline) would disappear in a puff of “logic”.Forever and ever.

    The minute Khaira signed he would be thrown out of tier 2 to avoid that scenario.

  146. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not saying the Brogran Rafferty can’t have an NHL career – I’m saying that his likelihood to have one, his potential, his offensive ceiling, his value are all dwarfed by Evan Bouchard, materially dwarfed.

    That’s my opinion and I think its highly defensible.

    Dwarfed. ?

  147. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: I wonder where Artemi Panarin would go in a 2012 re-draft?

    Pretty damn high I imagine. His draft year should have been 2010. Despite his late start in the NHL he’d be #6 in scoring from that draft year.

    I was more referring to Rafferty having done nothing at the NHL level yet than his not being drafted (here we are after his theoretical draft +7 season). Bouchard has scored an NHL goal at least, through draft +2. And he spent time on an NHL roster this season.

  148. Material Elvis says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I hear you.

    He’ll be proven correct in the end.

    The issue is the large number of infected already aren’t currently known.

    It’s common sense.

    He’s not a man with a lack of experience. Either way things will go as they will. At least in most of Canada it’s not outrageous and herd immunity will happen before a vaccine almost certainly.

    Good evening friends.

    Even if there are 20 times the number of reported cases (70,000 in Canada), that is still only 1,400,000 people. That means 96% of the Canadian population has not been exposed. No way does herd immunity happen quickly unless all social distancing measures are eliminated. I don’t see that happening.

  149. Ribs says:

    defmn: I always enjoy your posts.

    Great stuff, guys. ?

  150. JimmyV1965 says:

    Glovjuice: I tad. Ya think. Man, what an obvious ignorance of the stats on COVID-19.

    What covid stats am I ignorant about? In Canada in 2018, about 900 people under 44 died in motor vehicle collisions. Another 5,000 suffered serious injuries.

  151. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair: Sure I do…but it will be close.

    In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

    It isn’t just me.

    I don’t see how that’s possible. Bouchard was taken in the 2018 draft.

  152. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair: Sure I do…but it will be close.

    In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

    It isn’t just me.

    Also, in their analysis of the 2018 draft, Bouchard effectively dropped just one spot, which is hardly significant. The 11 “NHL” players were arbitrarily ranked 1-11, with two players jumping ahead of Bouchard (Denisenko, Romanov) and one falling behind him (Kravtsov). Two minus one equals one. One place. Hardly significant.

  153. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: How can Andreas Athanasiou — Ken Holland’s big bet — help the Oilers?

    https://theathletic.com/1807211/2020/05/12/lowetide-how-can-andreas-athanasiou-ken-hollands-big-bet-help-the-oilers/

  154. London Jon says:

    Harpers Hair: Sure I do…but it will be close.

    In the latest 2019 re-draft in the Hockey News, a survey of dozens of scouts, Bouchard dropped significantly and was deemed as the 7th best defenseman taken in that draft.

    It isn’t just me.

    I’ll bet you $100 a point. Bouchard vs Rafferty over the next 5 years

  155. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic: How can Andreas Athanasiou — Ken Holland’s big bet — help the Oilers?

    https://theathletic.com/1807211/2020/05/12/lowetide-how-can-andreas-athanasiou-ken-hollands-big-bet-help-the-oilers/

    Nice article LT. Agreed that Holland acquired Athanasiou with the intention of giving him a legit chance to fit in the Oilers top 6.

    One thing I was curious about though. You mentioned “Athanasiou has a slightly stronger reputation as a two-way talent” (vs Burakovsky). I wasn’t aware of any two-way reputation for AA, aside from him having the worst +/- in the league in this season. Is that just relative to Burakovsky? Does/did AA have a positive reputation as a responsible player that I’m not aware of? (this last one is really what I’m curious about I guess).

  156. PennersPancakes says:

    ArmchairGM: Also, in their analysis of the 2018 draft, Bouchard effectively dropped just one spot, which is hardly significant. The 11 “NHL” players were arbitrarily ranked 1-11, with two players jumping ahead of Bouchard (Denisenko, Romanov) and one falling behind him (Kravtsov). Two minus one equals one. One place. Hardly significant.

    Yeah that was lazy writing on their part. Boqvist, Sandin, Dobson all being ranked automatically higher because of GP doesnt paint the whole picture. Its a funny exercise to punish/diminish prospects based on team depth/not rushing them.

    Toronto and Chicago both lack D depth and Dobson wasnt eligible to play in the AHL. So it was scratch him for half the season (he had 34GP TOTAL) and play him in the NHL or play him in junior. Hell Romanov has no real competition on the left side for a spot on Montreal, he will slot behind Mete unless they make a play for Krug or someone similar and he will have a larger adjustment from Russia than Californa.

    Doing a redraft within 2 years seems like a make work project so anyone using these for a serious argument probably has other….. concerns and issues. Hughes and Dahlin are clearly better (at least at this point in time although that is a lot to catch up on) but the rest I see as a wash so taking John Carlson 2.0 doesnt seem like a bad thing.

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