Soviet Jewelry

If you look at the Oilers draft handiwork in the decade just ended, as it pertains to Russia, things have been plenty awful. Too much tundra, very little usable oil. Into that great wide open came two picks from the vast Russian terrain in 2019, giving the decade a fascinating bookend to the Nail Yakupov selection. Where do we go from here?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE, 2020 DRAFT

  1. G Yaroslav Askarov. He plays an unusual style. June 2002, has a .923 VHL save percentage.
  2. LW Rodion Amirov. Scouts love the tools and he’s a fast train in a draft season with slow boats.
  3. RW Alexander Pashin.Small winger with impressive skill, can score and pass.
  4. LC Marat Khusnutdinov. Small (5.09, 165) two-way center with great wheels. Offense is the worry.
  5. LD Shakir Mukhamadullin. He’s 6.04, 178. Good speed, talent, raw.
  6. LW Maxim Groshev. 6.02, 187, he’s skilled and determined with the puck on his stick.
  7. LW Maxim Beryozkin. Size, speed, skill, shot. Average speed is the worry.
  8. LHD Alexander Nikishin. Good skater, plus shot, he’s a throwback who hits to hurt.

Askarov and Amirov could either be gone or available when Edmonton picks in the first round. I’m not sure Holland would draft a goalie in the first round but Amirov fits the player type he would pursue.

RUSSIANS 2019

  1. R Vasili Podkolzin. Smart player with tons of offensive ability, but also possesses good two-way instincts.
  2. 2 L Pavel Dorofeyev. Dangerous skill winger who has a quick release, heavy shot.
  3. 3 LC Yegor Spiridonov. Tenacious two-way winger with impressive skill.
  4. 4 LD Daniil Misyul. Offers NHL teams an intriguing size/speed combination on the blue line.
  5. R Dmitri Sheshin. Undersized skill winger is something of a wizard with the puck.
  6. L Ilya Nikolayev. May fill a complementary offensive role or serve as a checker.
  7. L Yegor Chizhikov. July birthday and scores in every league they send him to.

Sheshin and Chizikov didn’t get drafted last year, both are eligible in 2020. Russia drafting is a very dangerous game in this era.

HAPPY MOTHER’S DAY

Moms are the best. I’m amazed at how much Mrs. Lowetide does every day for her family. Heart and soul and the best listener our home could hope for, while finding enough time to hammer me senseless when we play cribbage and Yahtzee.

This time, the Covid time, is especially difficult for Moms. The normal pressures to keep things together have stretched both Mom and Dad, but if you’ve followed the headlines across this country then you know women are especially vulnerable right now.

My Mom and Dad had a good relationship, but when my Dad couldn’t find work in the fall and winter of 1972, she had to take a job at the Pine Island Lodge in Maidstone. My Dad hated it, he was absolutely miserable until he got a job at Husky early spring. I remember that time because my brother and I missed Mom (she worked 11pm-7am) and Dad was impossible. It was a real strain on everyone, I’ve remembered it for 50 years so it had an impact.

If you know a family going through tough times, or suspect abuse, or are having difficult times in your own home, there are resources available and places to go. We have seen real tragedy in our communities and elsewhere, it’s important to send help now where it’s needed. Let’s look after Moms with the same care they’ve shown us, even if it means getting out of our own comfort zones to make a difference. Finally, for Moms everywhere, who can’t be with their children today due to social distancing and other regulations, know that you are loved and appreciated.

JUJHAR KHAIRA AND RILEY SHEAHAN

Jim Matheson had an item yesterday pertaining to Riley Sheahan and the cost of a new contract. Sounds like the organization and player aren’t close on a deal, meaning that spot could be open for 2020-21.

Jujhar Khaira (all numbers five on five from Natural Stat Trick) played center in March, winning 21 of 39 (53.85 percent) and hitting everything in sight. He had seven giveaways, an assist, a takeaway, four shots on goal, 43 percent Corsi, 39 percent shot differential, 3-0 goals, the result of 19 percent shooting percentage and 100 percent save percentage. Center after the 97-29-93 trio remains wobbly.

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86 Responses to "Soviet Jewelry"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Here is hoping the Oilers hit on Konovalov – I know both LT and Willis think he’s got a shot at an NHL starter gig one day.

    Depth is great but, with Haas signed and Khaira showing some promise as a 4C, I’m not sure that Sheahan isn’t redundant a bit. Yes, a center needs to be added but one that fits as a 3C and, while I give kudos to Sheahan’s work as the team’s 3rd center for much of the year, and upgrade at that position is the main area of need this off-season.

    As McCurdy and Staples showed us at the Cult, Sheahan was indeed an elite PK guy – making the least amount of mistakes per 2 minutes on the PK on the team.

    I’m OK to bring him back but not at “Archie money”, definitely not for greater than a year.

    Will his loss on the PK be felt materially?

  2. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    I’d be ok with Haas/JJ platooning at 4C if it means an upgrade at 3C. Ideally an addition there would also PK, which takes the sting out of Sheahan leaving. I like Sheahan well enough, but if he wants too much money he can walk. And 97 and 29 double shift enough that 4C isn’t really gonna kill us. Plus Nuge can play too if there’s an injury. 3C should be the top priority this offseason, with 1B goaltender not far behind.

  3. dustrock says:

    All the very best to all of the moms on Mother’s Day.

  4. jp says:

    Certainly (or, presumably) Holland isn’t going to give Sheahan 3C money. He played that role but was very clearly wanting (strong PK work notwithstanding). I wonder if Holland is also holding off to see what other options are available for similar money in the off season.

    The Oilers do have some cover with Haas and Khaira, but I’d think someone else needs to be added to that group. I’ve been hoping it’s an improvement on Sheahan, but at minimum it has to be Sheahan or similar.

    Another tidbit from Matheson’s article:
    – Mike Benning has decided to attend Denver U this fall rather than 2021, along with Sherwood Park Crusaders buddy Carter Savoie. “There’s the possibility of there being no or delayed junior league schedules. They will play in Denver even if it’s with no fans in the stands,” said Mike’s dad Brian.

    Interesting that he’d chose U of Denver over junior leagues in Canada since they’re more likely to actually play games in the fall..

  5. defmn says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    I’d be ok with Haas/JJ platooning at 4C if it means an upgrade at 3C.Ideally an addition there would also PK, which takes the sting out of Sheahan leaving.I like Sheahan well enough, but if he wants too much money he can walk.And 97 and 29 double shift enough that 4C isn’t really gonna kill us.Plus Nuge can play too if there’s an injury.3C should be the top priority this offseason, with 1B goaltender not far behind.

    You will note that Smith and Green were the two UFA’s on the team that Matheson didn’t mention. Every other player who’s place on next year’s team has been a matter of speculation got at least a line.

    PRussel, Ennis, Sheahan, Benning, Bouchard and Bear were all covered. AA wasn’t but I’m not sure that contract has been seen as all that controversial with most of assuming it would be at or close to the qualifying offer.

    But not a peep about Smith or Green.

  6. defmn says:

    jp:
    Certainly (or, presumably) Holland isn’t going to give Sheahan 3C money. He played that role but was very clearly wanting (strong PK work notwithstanding). I wonder if Holland is also holding off to see what other options are available for similar money in the off season.

    The Oilers do have some cover with Haas and Khaira, but I’d think someone else needs to be added to that group. I’ve been hoping it’s an improvement on Sheahan, but at minimum it has to be Sheahan or similar.

    Another tidbit from Matheson’s article:
    – Mike Benning has decided to attend Denver U this fall rather than 2021, along with Sherwood Park Crusaders buddy Carter Savoie. “There’s the possibility of there being no or delayed junior league schedules. They will play in Denver even if it’s with no fans in the stands,” said Mike’s dad Brian.

    Interesting that he’d chose U of Denver over junior leagues in Canada since they’re more likely to actually play games in the fall..

    Yeah, the Benning story caught my eye as well although I think kids are notorious for committing to university hockey and then changing their minds when the junior teams jump into the negotiations. Smart move with so much uncertainty though.

  7. Harpers Hair says:
  8. jp says:

    defmn: Yeah, the Benning story caught my eye as well although I think kids are notorious for committing to university hockey and then changing their minds when the junior teams jump into the negotiations. Smart move with so much uncertainty though.

    Yes, that’s true. Though I was more interested in the ‘US college hockey is more likely to proceed than Jr hockey’ part. I hadn’t heard that before (not that I’m connected), and had thought it might be the other way since there’s discussion of fall classes potentially being all online.

  9. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Yes, that’s true. Though I was more interested in the ‘US college hockey is more likely to proceed than Jr hockey’ part. I hadn’t heard that before (not that I’m connected), and had thought it might be the other way since there’s discussion of fall classes potentially being all online.

    The President of the NCAA said last week there will be no college sports until classes resume.

  10. slopitch says:

    Oilers shouldnt pay Sheahan a ton. Like JJ he was good at PK but struggled 5v5. Im not sure how much of the PK is coaching vs personnel. Overall though its the right play to wait on Sheahan. Hes a known vet but is also an option to upgrade on.

  11. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: The President of the NCAA said last week there will be no college sports until classes resume.

    Yes, that certainly makes sense.

  12. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Rodion Amirov will possibly be available when the Oil pick.

    I’ve read severaal Draft pundits claim he is a top 5 talent. He is my 1st round target, I am expecting there is a very strong likelihood that he is still available. I don’t think Dylan Holloway, who is my favourite outside of the top 10 or Seth Jarvis to be there.

    I think he is NHL ready, the only concern is that he is about 170 lbs. His KHL contract ends after the 20-21 season.

    Marat Khusnutdinov is another intriguing Draft prospect, he will be gone in the 2nd round. My reads on him are like a slightly bigger, and a bit better Yamamoto (better skater, better defensively).

    My favourite late-round Russian target is Dmitri Ovchinnikov.

    The kid looks like McDavid with his tremendous speed and even wears the same number. He still has a lot to work on, but he started out as the 3LW and ended up as his team’s 1C by seasons end. He is one of my 5th round targets, but I am starting to hear more and more buzz, after not hearing much about him in March. He played in Siberia, which explains the lack of exposure and being ranked in the mid-100’s.

  13. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    defmn,

    You asked about Judd Brackett yesterday.

    Here’s a rundown.

    https://canucksarmy.com/2020/05/08/its-jim-bennings-world-and-judd-brackett-just-lives-in-it/

    Thanks for that. Doesn’t sound like good news for Canuck’s fans but it does confirm my long held belief that Benning is a mediocre manager at best.

    One of the clearest signs of mediocrity is clearing out talented subordinates because you perceive them to be more threat than asset.

  14. defmn says:

    In his ‘Nine Things’ column today Leavins is signalling that he expects a veteran RD to be signed for Bakersfield and that Jurco may be coming back as well although I would think that would be another ‘buryable’ contract.

  15. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: Thanks for that. Doesn’t sound like good news for Canuck’s fans but it does confirm my long held belief that Benning is a mediocre manager at best.

    One of the clearest signs of mediocrity is clearing out talented subordinates because you perceive them to be more threat than asset.

    Yes.

  16. Munny says:

    I have a feeling there’s going to be a lot more mothers 8 to 9 months from now…

  17. jp says:

    defmn:
    In his ‘Nine Things’ column today Leavins is signalling that he expects a veteran RD to be signed for Bakersfield and that Jurco may be coming back as well although I would think that would be another ‘buryable’ contract.

    Cool, thanks for mentioning it. Good to hear about another RD. And Jurco would be welcome as depth for the Oilers/Bakersfield.

  18. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: What are Evan Bouchard’s chances of making the Oilers in 2020-21?

    https://theathletic.com/1803633/2020/05/10/lowetide-what-are-evan-bouchards-chances-of-making-the-oilers-in-2020-21/

  19. godot10 says:

    slopitch:
    Oilers shouldnt pay Sheahan a ton. Like JJ he was good at PK but struggled 5v5. Im not sure how much of the PK is coaching vs personnel. Overall though its the right play to wait on Sheahan. Hes a known vet butis also an option to upgrade on.

    Holland just has to wait for Sheehan to get no offers like he got no offers last year.

    He is more likely to stay with the Oilers for $1 million, than go somewhere else for $1 million.

  20. €√¥£€^$ says:

    defmn:
    In his ‘Nine Things’ column today Leavins is signalling that he expects a veteran RD to be signed for Bakersfield and that Jurco may be coming back as well although I would think that would be another ‘buryable’ contract.

    My guess: Robbie Russo

    Been watching his progress since he turned pro, he was a value target early, but has stalled as a prospect. Holland has a relationship with him, he is still relatively young, but perhaps he now realizes that he could make more money on a one-way AHL contract.

  21. jp says:

    The Oilers haven’t used a lot of picks on Russian players. Turns out Holland was even more stingy in recent years with the Wings.

    Detroit picked a Russian and a Belorussian (does that count?) in 2004. In the next 14 drafts, until Holland left for Edmonton, the Wings only drafted 3 Russian players.

    19 year old D Alexey Marchenko in the 7th round 2011 (played 121 NHL games)
    21 year old F Alexander Kadeykin in the 7th round 2014
    18 year old F Evgeny Svechnikov (from the QMJHL) in the 1st round 2015 (played just 20 NHL games so far)

    I guess it doesn’t mean much though since he used 2 of 6 picks in his first Oilers draft on Russians.

  22. jp says:

    €√¥£€^$: My guess: Robbie Russo

    Been watching his progress since he turned pro, he was a value target early, but has stalled as a prospect.Holland has a relationship with him, he is still relatively young, but perhaps could get a better deal on a one-way contract.

    Seems like a good possibility for Bakersfield, but who’d give him a one-way contract? He hasn’t played an NHL game in 3 seasons…

  23. BONE207 says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Rodion Amirov will possibly be available when the Oil pick.

    I’ve read severaal Draft pundits claim he is a top 5 talent.He is my 1st round target, I am expecting there is a very strong likelihood that he is still available.I don’t think Dylan Holloway, who is my favourite outside of the top 10 or Seth Jarvis to be there.

    I think he is NHL ready, the only concern is that he is about 170 lbs.His KHL contract ends after the 20-21 season.

    Marat Khusnutdinov is another intriguing Draft prospect, he will be gone in the 2nd round.My reads on him are like a slightly bigger, and a bit better Yamamoto (better skater, better defensively).

    My favourite late-round Russian target is Dmitri Ovchinnikov.

    The kid looks like McDavid with his tremendous and even wears the same number.He still has a lot to work on, but he started out as the 3LW and ended up as his team’s 1C by seasons end.He is one of my 5th round targets, but I am starting to hear more and more buzz, after not hearing much about him in March.He played in Siberia, which explains the lack of exposure and being ranked in the mid-100’s.

    Tremendous what?

    Happy Mother’s day…

  24. €√¥£€^$ says:

    jp,

    My apologies, I have more issues than Woodguy using this phone, should probably only post using my laptop, but I barely use it, lol.

    Between ADHD and not being able to see, I edit my damn few posts as often as OP actually posts, lol.

    I meant AHL only contract.

  25. €√¥£€^$ says:

    BONE207,

    Speed. He might be the fastest skater in the draft.

  26. BONE207 says:

    defmn: Thanks for that. Doesn’t sound like good news for Canuck’s fans but it does confirm my long held belief that Benning is a mediocre manager at best.

    One of the clearest signs of mediocrity is clearing out talented subordinates because you perceive them to be more threat than asset.

    Kingdoms have that sort of thing for centuries. I saw it live on Game of Thrones…😉

  27. BONE207 says:

    Munny:
    I have a feeling there’s going to be a lot more mothers 8 to 9 months from now…

    Stephen Colbert has said that libidos are running high. Keep away from Grandma. In 1933 we will see the rise of the quarantines. 🤣

  28. jp says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    jp,

    My apologies, I more issues than Woodguy using this phone, should probably only post using my laptop, but I barely use it, lol.I meant AHL only contract.

    No need for apologies, but that makes way more sense. Russo seems like a solid guess/option for Bakersfield RD, and he does look like a guy who might sign an AHL deal.

  29. Munny says:

    €√¥£€^$: My guess: Robbie Russo

    Been watching his progress since he turned pro, he was a value target early, but has stalled as a prospect.Holland has a relationship with him, he is still relatively young, but perhaps he now realizes that he could make more money on a one-way AHL contract.

    Good catch.

    Just a heads up… his last two contracts were two ways, with guaranteed money of 275k and 325k respectively. He might be looking for another two way deal first before signing an AHL-only contract. That, of course, doesn’t mean someone will give it to him.

  30. BONE207 says:

    While I’m sure some of these Russian prospects might be good picks, you’d need trump sized optimism to think you’ll play meaningful hockey somewhere halfway around the world. Sitting in a hotel or apartment in Bakersfield or staying at home during this time are 2 drastically different situations. Musk is shutting down his Tesla plant in California to move it to Texas so he can open up for manufacturing. While prospects take a few years, Russia might play next season. Who knows what North America will do yet. Like getting lost with Dad, we won’t ask for directions. Just go with your gut.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    Certainly (or, presumably) Holland isn’t going to give Sheahan 3C money. He played that role but was very clearly wanting (strong PK work notwithstanding). I wonder if Holland is also holding off to see what other options are available for similar money in the off season.

    The Oilers do have some cover with Haas and Khaira, but I’d think someone else needs to be added to that group. I’ve been hoping it’s an improvement on Sheahan, but at minimum it has to be Sheahan or similar.

    Another tidbit from Matheson’s article:
    – Mike Benning has decided to attend Denver U this fall rather than 2021, along with Sherwood Park Crusaders buddy Carter Savoie. “There’s the possibility of there being no or delayed junior league schedules. They will play in Denver even if it’s with no fans in the stands,” said Mike’s dad Brian.

    Interesting that he’d chose U of Denver over junior leagues in Canada since they’re more likely to actually play games in the fall..

    On the first point, absolutely agree, there needs to be one center added – the hope is there is an ability to add a more legit 3C than Sheahan, an upgrade, however, if that is not in the cards then a Sheahan level player will need to be added.

    On the second point, that is interesting as the NCAA president said a day or two ago that, if campus courses are only online, there will be no campus sports – he said if there are not students on campus there won’t be any sports being played.

    https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ncaa-president-mark-emmert-doesnt-think-sports-can-begin-until-all-students-are-on-campus/

  32. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: On the first point, absolutely agree, there needs to be one center added – the hope is there is an ability to add a more legit 3C than Sheahan, an upgrade, however, if that is not in the cards then a Sheahan level player will need to be added.

    On the second point, that is interesting as the NCAA president said a day or two ago that, if campus courses are only online, there will be no campus sports – he said if there are not students on campus there won’t be any sports being played.

    https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ncaa-president-mark-emmert-doesnt-think-sports-can-begin-until-all-students-are-on-campus/

    OriginalPouzar: On the first point, absolutely agree, there needs to be one center added – the hope is there is an ability to add a more legit 3C than Sheahan, an upgrade, however, if that is not in the cards then a Sheahan level player will need to be added.

    On the second point, that is interesting as the NCAA president said a day or two ago that, if campus courses are only online, there will be no campus sports – he said if there are not students on campus there won’t be any sports being played.

    https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ncaa-president-mark-emmert-doesnt-think-sports-can-begin-until-all-students-are-on-campus/

    On the second point,…I posted that three hours ago.

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide’s piece at The Athletic on Bouchard made me think about what his actual cap hit could be this coming season as he has the Schedule B bonus structure where he’d get $212,500 for each of the following (to a max of 4) – note, in the first year of his ELC, these max at $500K, up to $850K in each of year 2 and 3:

    Top four in Ice Time (TOI) (aggregate and/or per game) among defencemen (minimum 42 GP)

    Ten goals

    Twenty five assists

    Forty points

    .49 points per game (minimum 42 GP)

    Top three in +/- among D-men (minimum 42 GP)

    Top two in blocked shots among D-men (minimum 42 GP)

    NHL All-Rookie Team

    Selected to play or plays in NHL All-Star Game

    NHL All-Star Game MVP

    ——————

    I think he could potentially hit any (or all) of the assists, goals and P/G if he ends up with real PP time.

    Potentially all-rookie as well.

    I don’t see him getting much PK time so the top 4 TOI/G probably isn’t likely (although not out of the question).

    Do we see Bouch wil legit material PP time? Bear didn’t even get that this year and I think the current coaching staff will probably slow-play Bouchard in that regard as well.

    I know we are excited to see him on the PP but (a) its tough to “mess with” the best PP in the league and (b) the coaching staff haven’t put other rookies with high PP pedigree right in there.

    Bouchard hitting those bonuses, while it would signal that he’s killing it, would create an additional $500K in cap hit.

    I fully expect him to max out those bonuses (to $850K) in years 2 and 3.

  34. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I fully expect him to max out those bonuses (to $850K) in years 2 and 3.

    Next season is year 2, so it’s possible he costs $1.7M in the end.

    I actually think Bouchard will be relatively sheltered at 5v5 (3rd pairing minutes) and is very likely to get PP time (PP2 at least). It’s kind of his thing.

    So those bonuses are within reach. And I’d add that top 3 (out of 7) in +/- is pretty achievable too.

  35. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Looking at 3C targets for next year I would assume these are the more obvious UFA candidates. Any that are unreasonable/unworthy? Current age and AAV listed.

    Who would be a non-obvious candidate I neglected to list?

    — (34) Carl Söderberg $4M
    — (29) Cody Eakin $3.85M
    — (29) Erik Haula $2.75M
    — (30) Colin Wilson $2.6M
    — (33) Trevor Lewis $2M
    — (27) Johan Larsson $1.55M
    — (32) Derick Brassard $1.2M

    Just looking at the list and current AAV, Johan Larsson looks like the most affordable candidate. He’s the right age to grow with the core. LT and AGM have previously suggested him as a potential value candidate.

    I’ve always liked Trevor Lewis, wonder if he’s worth a one year deal (and would be interested). Not sure if he’s slowed down too much.

    Is Wilson healthy? I liked him in NSH.

    Haula (or Söderberg) would be my ideal candidate UFA 3C, but likely too expensive.

    *Note: Have not yet dug into the fancies.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch:
    Oilers shouldnt pay Sheahan a ton. Like JJ he was good at PK but struggled 5v5. Im not sure how much of the PK is coaching vs personnel. Overall though its the right play to wait on Sheahan. Hes a known vet butis also an option to upgrade on.

    I agree, of course, regarding not paying Sheahan too much and if Winter is digging in for more than $1.2MM or term then I would have to let Riley go.

    As far as the PK goes, Staples had a chat with Playfair recently and wrote about PK strategy at the Cult. Also, as we know, the Cult records all “mistakes on scoring chances against” and, on the PK, Sheahan has the lowest rate of all forwards – the “stats” meet the eye test.

    I think he’ll be missed on the PK and its not simply as easy as “next guy up” but, at the same time, I don’t think its enough to warrant more than a couple hundred grand raise over his current comp.

    One other concern I have though is faceoffs – I agree with some (many) that faceoffs can be over-rated but a plus faceoff guy would need to be added to the roster as they already rely on Drai too much for faceoffs.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Rodion Amirov will possibly be available when the Oil pick.

    I’ve read severaal Draft pundits claim he is a top 5 talent.He is my 1st round target, I am expecting there is a very strong likelihood that he is still available.I don’t think Dylan Holloway, who is my favourite outside of the top 10 or Seth Jarvis to be there.

    I think he is NHL ready, the only concern is that he is about 170 lbs.His KHL contract ends after the 20-21 season.

    Marat Khusnutdinov is another intriguing Draft prospect, he will be gone in the 2nd round.My reads on him are like a slightly bigger, and a bit better Yamamoto (better skater, better defensively).

    My favourite late-round Russian target is Dmitri Ovchinnikov.

    The kid looks like McDavid with his tremendous speed and even wears the same number.He still has a lot to work on, but he started out as the 3LW and ended up as his team’s 1C by seasons end.He is one of my 5th round targets, but I am starting to hear more and more buzz, after not hearing much about him in March.He played in Siberia, which explains the lack of exposure and being ranked in the mid-100’s.

    I know very little about the undrafted prospects after the “famous” ones at the top but I am starting to read (and listen) more about them and the guy in the Oilers’ range that intrigues me right now is
    Jan Myšák.

    I wonder if he could be a bit under-rated simply because of only playing 22 games in the CHL before things got shut down? He was a big minus in those 22 games but so was everyone else and 15G/25P is damn good after crossing the ocean, no?

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn:
    In his ‘Nine Things’ column today Leavins is signalling that he expects a veteran RD to be signed for Bakersfield and that Jurco may be coming back as well although I would think that would be another ‘buryable’ contract.

    They definitely need another rightie, for sure as, from what I can tell, the right side for the Bake is:

    Bouchard
    Jacks
    Deharnais

    Bouchard may only play a handful of games for them as well – shit, he might not play any.

    Ya, I was surprised with Jurco but I’d be fine with him back for some depth – it would definitely be fully buryable unless he somehow convinces Holland to give him Granlund’s contract and a $500K raise……

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: Good catch.

    Just a heads up… his last two contracts were two ways, with guaranteed money of 275k and 325k respectively.He might be looking for another two way deal first before signing an AHL-only contract.That, of course, doesn’t mean someone will give it to him.

    This is an area where a richer owner can be beneficial.

    There is no maximum salary for an AHL contract so Gretzky/Holland/Katz could offer him a solid premium to sign the AHL deal (and keep him off the 50)?

    I anticipate this is what got Brad Malone to sign an AHL deal coming off a series of NHL contracts.

    Of course, in order to do this, the player would essentially have to officially realize his NHL dream was over (at least for the term of the new contract).

  40. Oil2Oilers says:

    If you can’t focus on the hockey talk today I offer you this very, very long thread on Angela Lanbury as teapots.

    https://twitter.com/Pandamoanimum/status/1259207916403462144?s=19

  41. Clarkenstein says:

    The Oil have gone through about a dozen Sheahan types over the past 15 years. Kenny H will find another one…. at his price.

  42. €√¥£€^$ says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I see him in the 25-35 range. He played with Kalyev and Jenik, (for a short stint before JJ’s injury) so it makes it pretty tough to argue he didn’t get a lot of help.

    I have focused primarily on LW and RC in this draft and have come up with a top 10 list for each of the Oiler picks. Many may not be there, but this is a fascinating Draft and I am excited to see where my selections land. I also am trying to see it I can nail an Oil pick. If they select anty G, D or RWs, I am hooped. I’ve only got 1 D and a handful of RW’s on my list.
    LT is a legend in my mind for singling out Bear and Berglund in their Drafts.

    FWIW, I have Mysak as my 6th choice in this spot, so still an intriguing talent, but likely not the best available player when the Oil make the pick, IMHO..

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    On the second point,…I posted that three hours ago.

    That’s nice – I posted it the hour after it was quoted the other day – people miss stuff (similar to how you must have missed my post on Yakupov being traded yesterday as you posted that “new info” hours later).

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Next season is year 2, so it’s possible he costs $1.7M in the end.

    I actually think Bouchard will be relatively sheltered at 5v5 (3rd pairing minutes) and is very likely to get PP time (PP2 at least). It’s kind of his thing.

    So those bonuses are within reach. And I’d add that top 3 (out of 7) in +/- is pretty achievable too.

    No sir, not unless he plays 10 games this year – his ELC will slide this year.

    I agree with you the he will be sheltered on the third pairing with some likely PP time. The thing is, how much PP time? PP2 barely plays and I don’t think that will change much and, also, I think Bear is in line ahead of him as well……

  45. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    Would love to see your list, unless you’re waiting for LT to publish his final draft list to unveil yours.

  46. duct tape and foil says:

    The team is nowhere near good enough to stand pat this summer. That’s a recipe for missing the playoffs if something goes wrong (injuries, bad goalering).

    Sheahan was very good on the PK but also very medioce at ES. He got caved at ES early on and was getting caved again when the season stopped. I’ve got time for the guy as a 4th line center with speedy wingers, but not interested in him as a 3C, at any salary over $1.25 million, or for more than 1 year. If he can get more elsewhere, then good for Riley, he should grab it.

    Russell, Benning, Smith and Sheahan are the guys I’d move out, and if done clean, gets you almost $10 million to upgrade.

  47. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    duct tape and foil,

    Didn’t the team have injuries, slumps and suspensions to contend with and still sits in a playoff spot?

    I don’t disagree that some upgrades are required, but I think that’s more from an evolution/growth perspective than an outright need to toss a stick of dynamite into the locker room than anything.

    Also agree that Sheahan is capped out at the Archie contract. Unless he somehow manages to pop in 10-15 goals and 30+ points while being a plus player GF% wise and a rockstar on the PK. Too long were his troughs and too slim were his crests to pay more, usage be damned.

    I’d keep Benning, he’s a quality player as a 3RD even if he may be a tad over payed. I like what he brings, and he’s good insurance for injury plus sets a reasonably high bar for Bouchard to break into the league. The rest of the players you mention are also on my short list of personnel to move on from this off season.

  48. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: That’s nice – I posted it the hour after it was quoted the other day – people miss stuff (similar to how you must have missed my post on Yakupov being traded yesterday as you posted that “new info” hours later).

    More selfish, petulant behaviour from OP and HH on Lowetide’s blog. Its utterly disgusting how narcissistic these two people are.

  49. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree, of course, regarding not paying Sheahan too much and if Winter is digging in for more than $1.2MM or term then I would have to let Riley go.

    As far as the PK goes, Staples had a chat with Playfair recently and wrote about PK strategy at the Cult. Also, as we know, the Cult records all “mistakes on scoring chances against” and, on the PK, Sheahan has the lowest rate of all forwards – the “stats” meet the eye test.

    I think he’ll be missed on the PK and its not simply as easy as “next guy up” but, at the same time, I don’t think its enough to warrant more than a couple hundred grand raise over his current comp.

    One other concern I have though is faceoffs – I agree with some (many) that faceoffs can be over-rated but a plus faceoff guy would need to be added to the roster as they already rely on Drai too much for faceoffs.

    How much was Sheahan’s PK work worth really? No one (I think) can disentangle the player from the system. But we can quantify how much better/worse a player is vs average in allowing goals on the PK (as we can at even strength).

    So Sheahan was the Oilers most used PK forward, but among the 4 who played 60+ minutes on the PK he had the worst GA/60 (I’m using 4v5 minutes here actually). It was still a very good number. If you move the cutoff to 30+ minutes Sheahan allowed essentially half the GA/60 of 2 of the players who got added to the list (Russell and Granlund). And if you go back to 60+ minute cutoff Sheahan was 45th of 152 forwards in the NHL in GA/60.

    I know team context matters, but if we take that ranking/number (5.53GA/60) at face value, and believe that was all in Sheahan’s control, what did that really mean? How many goals against did it save the Oilers? Well not that many.

    So of those 152 forwards who played at least 60 minutes 4v5, the median GA/60 was 6.57. If you take that number and translate it to the 152 minutes Sheahan played you get 16.67GA. Sheahan actually allowed 14 in those minutes. So Sheahan’s PK work (if he owns all of it) was worth 3 goals to the Oilers, if you round up.

    For a player who was -20 5v5 you might rightly wonder whether those (almost) 3GA saved vs league average on the PK was worth it (acknowledging also that likely not all 3Cs should be expected to break even at 5v5).

    Khaira was the 2nd worst Oiler player 5v5 (-19). He played 99 minutes 4v5 and remarkably allowed only 4GA. His rate (2.43GA/60) was actually 2nd best in the NHL. If he gave up the average number of goals/60 in his minutes he’d have allowed 10.8 goals, so his actual saved the Oilers basically 7GA overall. Makes his 5v5 number look a little better but obviously still not good.

    Take this with a grain of salt obviously. The main take-home for me would be that even if you believe Sheahan is an excellent penalty killer it’s not worth that many goals.

    I think both Khaira and Sheahan are very good penalty killers (Sheahan has been a regular on the PK for the last 5 years and has never been above that league median number of 6.57GA/60. Khaira has been on the PK for 3 years, was over 1 year but remarkable the other 2). They’re legit for sure. But I don’t know how much bleeding 5v5 that does (or should) buy them.

  50. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: No sir, not unless he plays 10 games this year – his ELC will slide this year.

    I agree with you the he will be sheltered on the third pairing with some likely PP time.The thing is, how much PP time? PP2 barely plays and I don’t think that will change much and, also, I think Bear is in line ahead of him as well……

    You’re right about the slide, I’d forgotten. That’s great for the Oilers.

    We will see on the PP time. He won’t be handed PP1 right away but I don’t know it will be long. He very well may leap frog Bear (who really has no hold on any PP time right now, just people who THINK he should be playing over Nurse/Klefbom).

  51. defmn says:

    jp:

    Can you break out the defensive pairings for PK as well? I’m wondering if Larsson shows up in a good way after he had a chance to recover from his early season injury.

  52. Oilman99 says:

    Glovjuice: More selfish, petulant behaviour from OP and HH on Lowetide’s blog. Its utterly disgusting how narcissistic these two people are.

    Those oversized EGO’s get in the way some times.
    P.S. the YAK trade was old news already by the time it was reposted by you know who.

  53. pts2pndr says:

    jp: Next season is year 2, so it’s possible he costs $1.7M in the end.

    I actually think Bouchard will be relatively sheltered at 5v5 (3rd pairing minutes) and is very likely to get PP time (PP2 at least). It’s kind of his thing.

    So those bonuses are within reach. And I’d add that top 3 (out of 7) in +/- is pretty achievable too.

    My question to you both. Are what you are saying is we should keep him in the AHL? What is good for the player is good for the team. What you appear to be saying is can we afford for him to be good or exceed expectations. This seems to be counter productive to becoming a better team.

  54. Scungilli Slushy says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Looking at 3C targets for next year I would assume these are the more obvious UFA candidates.Any that are unreasonable/unworthy?Current age and AAV listed.

    Who would be a non-obvious candidate I neglected to list?

    — (34) Carl Söderberg $4M
    — (29) Cody Eakin $3.85M
    — (29) Erik Haula $2.75M
    — (30) Colin Wilson $2.6M
    — (33) Trevor Lewis $2M
    — (27) Johan Larsson $1.55M
    — (32) Derick Brassard $1.2M

    Just looking at the list and current AAV, Johan Larsson looks like the most affordable candidate.He’s the right age to grow with the core.LT and AGM have previously suggested him as a potential value candidate.

    I’ve always liked Trevor Lewis, wonder if he’s worth a one year deal (and would be interested).Not sure if he’s slowed down too much.

    Is Wilson healthy?I liked him in NSH.

    Haula (or Söderberg) would be my ideal candidate UFA 3C, but likely too expensive.

    *Note: Have not yet dug into the fancies.

    I think it’s a rough year for UFAs.

    So happy Chia is gone, teams are in the driver’s seat.

    Also a rough year for salary dumps, but Russelll is still a good option for low budget teams looking to hit the Cap floor. Or that need a cheap experienced multi capable D.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: How much was Sheahan’s PK work worth really? No one (I think) can disentangle the player from the system. But we can quantify how much better/worse a player is vs average in allowing goals on the PK (as we can at even strength).

    So Sheahan was the Oilers most used PK forward, but among the 4 who played 60+ minutes on the PK he had the worst GA/60 (I’m using 4v5 minutes here actually). It was still a very good number. If you move the cutoff to 30+ minutes Sheahan allowed essentially half the GA/60 of 2 of the players who got added to the list (Russell and Granlund). And if you go back to 60+ minute cutoff Sheahan was 45th of 152 forwards in the NHL in GA/60.

    I know team context matters, but if we take that ranking/number (5.53GA/60) at face value, and believe that was all in Sheahan’s control, what did that really mean? How many goals against did it save the Oilers? Well not that many.

    So of those 152 forwards who played at least 60 minutes 4v5, the median GA/60 was 6.57. If you take that number and translate it to the 152 minutes Sheahan played you get 16.67GA. Sheahan actually allowed 14 in those minutes. So Sheahan’s PK work (if he owns all of it) was worth 3 goals to the Oilers, if you round up.

    For a player who was -20 5v5 you might rightly wonder whether those (almost) 3GA saved vs league average on the PK was worth it (acknowledging also that likely not all 3Cs should be expected to break even at 5v5).

    Khaira was the 2nd worst Oiler player 5v5 (-19). He played 99 minutes 4v5 and remarkably allowed only 4GA. His rate (2.43GA/60) was actually 2nd best in the NHL. If he gave up the average number of goals/60 in his minutes he’d have allowed 10.8 goals, so his actual saved the Oilers basically 7GA overall. Makes his 5v5 number look a little better but obviously still not good.

    Take this with a grain of salt obviously. The main take-home for me would be that even if you believe Sheahan is an excellent penalty killer it’s not worth that many goals.

    I think both Khaira and Sheahan are very good penalty killers (Sheahan has been a regular on the PK for the last 5 years and has never been above that league median number of 6.57GA/60. Khaira has been on the PK for 3 years, was over 1 year but remarkable the other 2). They’re legit for sure. But I don’t know how much bleeding 5v5 that does (or should) buy them.

    Good detailed research – thank you.

    As per my post, I questioned how much would be lost by replacing him with another on the PP and I don’t know the answer to it.

    A couple of things:

    1) as per my post, the Cult of Hockey determined that he made the least amount of mistakes leading to scoring chances against on the PK (per 60 or per 2 minutes as they cite it). That’s a bit subjective but I believe McCurdy vets through all the data and I trust his analysis to be generally pretty accurate. Riley must be a large part of the success

    2) As far as GA numbers, lets not forget, the vast majority of the time, Sheahan is starting against a fresh PP1 with the faceoff in the own zone – that’s the toughest PK minutes.

  56. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: That’s nice – I posted it the hour after it was quoted the other day – people miss stuff (similar to how you must have missed my post on Yakupov being traded yesterday as you posted that “new info” hours later).

    Whoosh

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: You’re right about the slide, I’d forgotten. That’s great for the Oilers.

    We will see on the PP time. He won’t be handed PP1 right away but I don’t know it will be long. He very well may leap frog Bear (who really has no hold on any PP time right now, just people who THINK he should be playing over Nurse/Klefbom).

    Don’t disagree with you and Bouch could very well leapfrog Bear but, then again, from watching quite a bit of the Condors, Bouchard wasn’t a dominant PP presence (I was a bit underwhelmed with that part of his game) – of course, put him on the ice with Drai, McDavid, Nuge and XXX…..

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Can you break out the defensive pairings for PK as well? I’m wondering if Larsson shows up in a good way after he had a chance to recover from his early season injury.

    My two cents: on the Cult of Hockey, mistakes on scoring chances against, Larsson made the least (per 2 min) among the D on the PK (like Sheahan for the forwards).

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: My question to you both. Are what you are saying is we should keep him in the AHL?What is good for the player is good for the team. What you appear to be saying is can we afford for him to be good or exceed expectations. This seems to be counter productive to becoming a better team.

    Not what I’m saying at all.

    While I have no issue with him starting in the AHL (I am just fine with keeping the right side as it currently is), that has nothing to do with his bonuses.

    I was just bringing them up as a topic of conversation.

  60. €√¥£€^$ says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    €√¥£€^$,

    Would love to see your list, unless you’re waiting for LT to publish his final draft list to unveil yours.

    I’d love to, but to be honest, I rejigged my list again today. What I have now won’t be my final version. I am still rooting around for potential value late-rounders.

    As well, I have some players a bit too high and several way too low, so I had planned to post it about 1 week prior to the draft.

    This isn’t a comprehensive list from 1 to 300, it is a list of 50 players surrounding the 23rd, 85th, 147th, 178th & 209th picks.

    Maybe I will post it the day after they officially announce the Draft and post my updated list a couple of times the week of the Draft. I would right now, but I am not 100% on few of the players even now.

    But since you asked, my top 3 per Round (keep in mind my #10 for the previous Round, if not picked, would be #1 the following round, so this List might lack context for some folks) are:

    23 OV: 1.Rodion Amirov. 2. Hendrix Lapierre. 3. JJ Peterka
    85 OV: 1.Jack Finley 2. Dmitri Ovchinmikov. 3. Roby Jarventie
    147 OV: 1. Brandon Coe 2. Oskar Magnussen 3. Alex Young
    178 OV: 1. Blake Biondi 2. Colby Ambrosio 3. Kyle Crnkovic
    208 OV:. 1. Parker Ford 2. Pavel Gogolev 3. Grant Slukynsky

    I will likely end up moving both Biondi and Slukynsky up a round, they are both college-bound USHS prospects and might go much higher than I have them slotted. I dinged them because they didn’t face the best competition, so their success could be attributed to their physical superiority vs their peers.

  61. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Glovjuice,

    Both posters, while adversarial have contributed to the knowledge base of the forum in myriad ways individually over the years.

    Still waiting on you to contribute.

  62. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    JJ was a good to plus PKer before here, and I don’t pretend to know how Sheahan was prior to his Oilers stint.

    I’d tend to agree that there’s a bit more to the system than the individual player (see: Eakins, Swarm, for example). And the sample sizes involved in a single season may lead you to draw an inaccurate conclusion about the team/player relationship but perhaps you’re on to something here when you weigh the 5v5 + 4v5 balance of results.

    One thing I’d ask is about slumps and consistency. Does a bad month or so while integrating into a new team deserve a conclusion of a player’s ability? As I recall, (seen ’em good/bad analysis alert) RS was poor to start the year and then gained steam. Does an early poor stretch of play doom a player? Does a promising stretch redeem him? Not sure, genuinely asking.

    I’d say that on the whole there’s not much to give between RS and JJ right now. Except JJ skates better and is more physical. And also the younger player, so I’d assume his ceiling *should be a bit higher (draft pedigree be damned) based on the on-ice results to date.

    All I can say with a high degree of certainty is that I’d be uncomfortable with either player as the 3C for a material stretch next year. An upgrade is imperative to team success, now and sustained in the future.

  63. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Rough year for 3C UFA.

    Great year on the 1A/B UFA market, though.

    I think dumping KRusty is imperative to gaining one or even both of the above, depending on how much Kenny grinds on the team’s RFA contracts.

    Also, I do worry a bit about how much we may tend to overvalue KRusty’s worth to other organizations but then I look at the recent trade market and Forbort and Frolik come to mind. Is it unfair to peg KRusty’s value at a 4th round pick with nothing retained? I don’t think so. He’s still a good to decent player with high character, if overpaid relative to cap.

    Our best bet for 3C is likely to be had in a salary dump for underappreciated player swap, like the way we got Kassian or Maroon. Chia wasn’t the most adroit manager, but he did have some success whilst nibbling around the edges. I’d like to see Old Holland pull off something similar this off season. Would be like adding a Bear or Yamamoto or Jones. Yuge!

  64. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    This post is like found money.

    Thank you for being so willing to offer a public stance.

    I’m going to enjoy digging into the players you mention, even if I disagree. That’s the fun of the process, after all.

  65. slopitch says:

    Greats posts OP and JP! Might be a good wowy exercise btw JJ and Sheahan to see if we can tell who was dragging who. PuckIQ is unavailable right now or I would. I remember when looking at the shift data that Sheahan played the most dzone shifts of all the C and posted the worst GF and DFF. We know that JJ and Sheahan struggled on 5v5 but excelled on the PK and its hard to know how much credit to give them for the PK results. They deserve credit for sure. But Sheahans 5v5 numbers imo make him 4th line and he should therefore be paid like one. Find a Lars Eller or 24 year old Phillip Daneault to play 3C. Easier said than done but if you can do it the team improves a ton 5v5.

  66. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    Thanks for this. Impressive work.

    I’m going to have fun digging into the names/rankings you’ve offered here.

    Much appreciated.

    Quick question.

    Why would you rank your choices at 23OV higher than Mavrik Borque? I’m a bit enamoured with him, he seems an ideal fit. Is it because you believe he’ll be selected prior, or isn’t the best available?

    Thanks again.

  67. Munny says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:

    — (34) Carl Söderberg $4M
    — (29) Cody Eakin $3.85M
    — (29) Erik Haula $2.75M
    — (30) Colin Wilson $2.6M
    — (33) Trevor Lewis $2M
    — (27) Johan Larsson $1.55M
    — (32) Derick Brassard $1.2M

    That’s a pretty good list.

  68. Munny says:

    1984 SCF Game 5 was not a good day for Brother Duane.

  69. jp says:

    defmn: Can you break out the defensive pairings for PK as well? I’m wondering if Larsson shows up in a good way after he had a chance to recover from his early season injury.

    Team context would probably be useful first (as it would have been in my original post).
    The Oilers were #2 in the NHL at 5.13GA/60 this season.

    So Larsson. Overall on the year he was 5th among Oilers D in total TOI and TOI/game (just 79 minutes and 1:36/game).

    But performance-wise, he was #1 on the team in GA/60 at 3.05. Shit, he was #1 in the NHL among D with 60+ minutes this year. So yeah, he was pretty good (even including his injury recovery).

    From Jan 1st on he played 50 minutes (3rd on the team and 4th in TOI/game) and was only on ice for 1 GA. That’s 1.2GA/60 (again 1st in the NHL over that period). Impressive.

    I should throw a word of caution on Larsson though. And this is really a word of caution about special teams more generally. It’s beware of small sample sizes. Larsson played 79 minutes on the PK the entire year. That’s like 5 games of even strength TOI. A few goals either direction makes a big difference.

    So in SA/60 Larsson on the year was 3rd of 5 Oilers D >60 min in SA. He was 88th of 141 NHL D >60 minutes. He was better after Jan 1st, but not to the extent it would support his GA number.

    His PK numbers for his Oilers career are quite middling (not bad, just average). So I’d guess that Khaira and Sheahan might actually be more valuable penalty killers in reality than Larsson is, relative to their teammates.

    Khaira provides a good example of the variability in small samples, as well as his own success. Larsson is there for comparison.

    Khaira
    17-18 44.1SA/60 (13th) 4.1GA/60 (12th) of 179F
    18-19 51.4SA/60 (93rd) 8.7GA/60 (154th) of 177F
    19-20 42.5SA/60 (22nd) 2.4GA/60 (2nd) of 152F

    Larsson the same years:
    17-18 50.3SA/60 (41st) 6.9GA/60 (82nd) of 153D
    18-19 51.3SA/60 (80th) 9.0GA/60 (131st) of 148D
    19-20 54.9SA/60 (88th) 3.1GA/60 (1st) of 141D

    Khaira was elite in GA and SA 2 of the 3 years. Larsson was fine 3 of 3 years (with an amazing GA number one of those years). That’s my take anyway.

  70. jp says:

    pts2pndr: My question to you both. Are what you are saying is we should keep him in the AHL?What is good for the player is good for the team. What you appear to be saying is can we afford for him to be good or exceed expectations. This seems to be counter productive to becoming a better team.

    I wasn’t saying anything to that effect either. Just something to be aware of.

  71. €√¥£€^$ says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    I don’t think he will make it past 15, I actually “sanitized” my list and took out players that I think will be gone by this pick to make it more realistic. My actual top 3 is: Holloway, Jarvis, Amirov. Bourque is 6th, but this list is downstairs right now.

    I created my list based on who could fall (Holloway due to low offense, Jarvis due to size, etc). I have Lundell in my top 10 due to foot speed questions, but I really doubt he makes it to 11.

    You never know how far some players will fall and we just might see a Team like NJ fall in love with a Dman like Justin Barron or Shakir Mukhamadullin and one of them could unexpectedly land in the top 10 like Broberg and Moritz Seider did last year.

  72. defmn says:

    jp:

    Much appreciated. Thank you for doing that.

  73. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    jp,

    JJ was a good to plus PKer before here, and I don’t pretend to know how Sheahan was prior to his Oilers stint.

    I’d tend to agree that there’s a bit more to the system than the individual player (see: Eakins, Swarm, for example).And the sample sizes involved in a single season may lead you to draw an inaccurate conclusion about the team/player relationship but perhaps you’re on to something here when you weigh the 5v5 + 4v5 balance of results.

    One thing I’d ask is about slumps and consistency.Does a bad month or so while integrating into a new team deserve a conclusion of a player’s ability?As I recall, (seen ’em good/bad analysis alert) RS was poor to start the year and then gained steam.Does an early poor stretch of play doom a player?Does a promising stretch redeem him?Not sure, genuinely asking.

    I’d say that on the whole there’s not much to give between RS and JJ right now.Except JJ skates better and is more physical.And also the younger player, so I’d assume his ceiling *should be a bit higher (draft pedigree be damned) based on the on-ice results to date.

    All I can say with a high degree of certainty is that I’d be uncomfortable with either player as the 3C for a material stretch next year.An upgrade is imperative to team success, now and sustained in the future.

    I hadn’t read this when I wrote my more recent post.

    So yes, I definitely agree that small samples can and do have a huge effect on PK numbers. Also lots of room for slumps or hot stretches to matter.

    System is likely very important too, I was just trying to see how much difference a great penalty killer could make. True ability or not, he only saved the Oilers ~3 goals vs league average. Khaira was the best PKer in the league and saved his team 7GA vs average. That’s best case scenario, giving the system zero credit. It doesn’t come close to erasing their 5v5 results.

    I’d definitely like to see Holland find an upgrade if he can.

  74. jp says:

    defmn,

    You’re welcome.

  75. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Good detailed research – thank you.

    As per my post, I questioned how much would be lost by replacing him with another on the PP and I don’t know the answer to it.

    A couple of things:

    1) as per my post, the Cult of Hockey determined that he made the least amount of mistakes leading to scoring chances against on the PK (per 60 or per 2 minutes as they cite it). That’s a bit subjective but I believe McCurdy vets through all the data and I trust his analysis to be generally pretty accurate. Riley must be a large part of the success

    2) As far as GA numbers, lets not forget, the vast majority of the time, Sheahan is starting against a fresh PP1 with the faceoff in the own zone – that’s the toughest PK minutes.

    As I said, I think Sheahan and Khaira are both good penalty killers. Both have had generally good numbers for multiple years.

    In terms of how much would/could be be lost in replacing Sheahan. I think Khaira is a good illustration. He was the #2 penalty killer in the NHL last season by GA/60. Replacing him with a league average GA/60 player (which would have been much worse than the Oilers as a team performed), would have cost 7GA. Best in the league to average, with zero credit given to the team around him and coaching staff equals 7 goals.

    Replacing Sheahan, who was a bit better than league average but worse than Oilers average, would be very very unlikely to cost 7GA.

    He is a valuable contributor to the PK. But the effect a player can have on the PK is relatively minor compared to what they can achieve (good or bad) in 10 even strength minutes a night.

  76. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: Our best bet for 3C is likely to be had in a salary dump for underappreciated player swap, like the way we got Kassian or Maroon. Chia wasn’t the most adroit manager, but he did have some success whilst nibbling around the edges. I’d like to see Old Holland pull off something similar this off season. Would be like adding a Bear or Yamamoto or Jones. Yuge!

    Agreed this is probably the most likely way the Oilers next 3C lands in Edmonton. I feel good about Holland being in on what’s available but it’s near impossible to predict.

    Your FA list looks solid too. I don’t have any players to add but would say I did look at Larsson’s numbers after Willis/LT mentioned him a while back and was impressed. He doesn’t bring any more offense than Sheahan but based on DFF% and TOI vs elites he seems like a better bet to saw off in that role. And he shouldn’t cost a ton (though probably 25 teams feel that way).

  77. jp says:

    slopitch:
    Greats posts OP and JP! Might be a good wowy exercise btw JJ and Sheahan to see if we can tell who was dragging who. PuckIQ is unavailable right now or I would. I remember when looking at the shift data that Sheahan played the most dzone shifts of all the C and posted the worst GF and DFF. We know that JJ and Sheahan struggled on 5v5 but excelled on the PK and its hard to know how much credit to give them for the PK results. They deserve credit for sure. But Sheahans 5v5 numbers imo make him 4th line and he should therefore be paid like one. Find a Lars Eller or 24 year old Phillip Daneault to play 3C.Easier said than done but if you can do it the team improves a ton 5v5.

    I looked at the Sheahan/Khaira/Archibald WOWYs recently when looking at the Oilers with their 3 best forwards off ice. I don’t think there was anything redeeming for any of the 3. They were all fed tough zone starts but not very difficult competition and it didn’t go well. I was actually looking for someone dragging someone else down but they were all bad together or apart.

    Sheahan/Khaira/Haas are fine as 4C/5C but yeah, hopefully Holland can improve on 3C.

  78. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Munny,

    Thanks.

    I have a few lists.

    Two amongst which are UFAs.

    Ones that can help next year, and those who can help beyond.

    The other two lists include trade acquisitions, as well as internal acquisitions.

  79. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    When compiling a draft list, one must always allow for the proclivities of other teams.

    Broberg and Seider were both telegraphed last year. They may have went a bit earlier than expected based on various lists, but they were in the range. Teams regularly draft for need. I wonder if that planned variability is what has Bourque or Jarvis or Mysak going so low in LTs recent lists. IDK. I’m a passive observer, not a scout.

  80. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    For the record, I like JJ.

    If he could piss a drop again, I’d love the man.

    Without a crystal ball, I’d wager freedom to wheel within the system is responsible for a goodly proportion of his (net) positive results this year. Maybe next year will be different, and he’ll score again. IDK.

    Sample sizes are weird. He has scored before… just not lately.

  81. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    I really like this baseline evaluation technique.

    Really helps suss out the signal from the noise.

  82. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    This is the challenge of the UFA market.

    Flog ChiaPete as one will/must, he did find a few diamonds amongst the rough. That’s the path forward, methinks.

    So that begs the question… who’s our 3C, J. Larsson? Are we talking a guy like E. Staal, M. Koivu, M. Granlund, or someone totally out of left field who proves our collective analysis is woefully inadequate?

  83. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    BTW

    Where is Wilde?

    Has anyone checked in on him, is he okay?

  84. duct tape and foil says:

    Get Zacha out of NJD somehow. Right age, good size, decent wheels, plus PK and a 3C who can piss a drop. Would NJD have any interest in JP+? Maybe depending what the + is. He’s playing behind Hischier and Hughes and they also have Zajac and McLeod

  85. slopitch says:

    Are u sure Zacha can play? At a glance he doesnt look like an upgrade. On the other hand Tampa paid a lot for Coleman and got unlucky but hes legit and on a great contract so it should work out. Tampa is loaded!

  86. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Yeah Khaira is an odd case. He was awful at 5v5 this season but was much better scoring and goal differential-wise in previous years. And he’s a very good penalty killer. I’d be happy to give him a chance to rebound and there’s no rush to offload him IMO.

    And on who the next 3C might be, no idea. It could come from your list or any number of other places. Trade for a younger long term replacement or one for an older player. My guess would probably be trade for a vet with 1 year left on his deal, but I also suspect Holland isn’t married to any one kind of solution.

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