Signed, Sealed and Delivered

The Edmonton Oilers 2015 draft was a wild affair, with picks being sent away every hour on the hour on both days. The scouts didn’t have much to work with after naming Connor McDavid No. 1 overall, but delivered an impressive list despite the gaps.

Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones appear poised to play NHL games for years to come and John Marino, who did not sign with the Oilers, has an equally promising future. Are there any 2018 draft picks still unsigned worth drafting or signing as free agents? Let’s have a quick look.

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Unsigned 2018 draft picks

No. 83 overall LC Riley Stotts. I had him No. 107 overall, he improved slightly during his junior career but didn’t spike. Final junior NHLE (26.3) doesn’t stand out in the crowd. (Toronto).

No. 96 overall LC Luke Henman. Spiked in his final junior season, increasing point total (in 63 games both times) from 46 to 74. I think Carolina signs him in the coming days. (Carolina)

No. 97 overall LC Allan McShane. I had him No. 31 on my final list, excellent passer and a nice range of skills. NHLE in his final OHL season (28.6) is shy. (Montreal)

No. 99 overall LW Brett Murray. Buffalo drafted him, but he remains unsigned. He played this season with Rochester (AHL) scoring 9-15-24 in 55 games. That’s 17.4 NHLE. He’s 6.05, 235, speed is an issue. Turns 22 in the summer, from the Patrick Maroon family of prospects. (Buffalo)

No. 101 overall LD Nico Gross. Big defensive defenseman is mobile and did improve in moving the puck this season. (NYR)

No. 106 overall LC Curtis Douglas. Big, tall center (6.09, 236) scored 30 goals this year in his final junior season. He is not a great skater. (Dallas)

No. 110 overall LD Xavier Bernard. Big defenseman with good speed blossomed after a mid-season trade to Sherbrooke in his final junior year. New Jersey has his rights. (NJD)

No. 122 overall LC Milos Roman. I had him at No. 55 overall, he’s a smart player who did not step forward in his final junior season. Vancouver had a disappointing season, contract may still arrive for Roman. (Calgary)

No. 128 overall LW Cole Fonstad. I had him No. 46 on my 2018 list, he’s skilled but didn’t progress as an offensive player. His NHLE’s beginning in his draft year were (WHL) 25.1, 27.0 and 30.5 this season. Fonstadt didn’t dominate in either season after his draft. (Montreal)

No. 133 overall LC Samuel Houde. Skill forward has progressed through his junior career, posting 52 points in 44 games for Chicoutimi (NHLE: 27.5). Likely a candidate to sign an AHL contract in the summer. (Montreal)

No. 134 overall LW Blade Jenkins. I had him No. 97 in 2018, he’s 6.02, 210 and did not take a step forward after his draft. (NYI)

No. 145 overall RD Dennis Busby. Career was interrupted by injury post draft, he was healthy in 2019-20 but his numbers didn’t spike with Flint. (Arizona)

No. 150 overall LD Declan Chisholm. He posted 69 points in 59 games in his final junior season, has good two-way ability and developed enough over his post-draft career to be considered for a contract. (Winnipeg)

No. 153 overall LD Giovanni Vallati. Effective OHL defenseman, plays a two-way role, doesn’t have dynamic puck-moving ability. (Winnipeg)

No. 154 overall RD Connor Corcoran. He’s the most attractive name on this list in my opinion. Two-way defenseman who improved a lot based on the numbers in his final junior season. (Vegas)

No. 161 overall RD Alex Kannok-Leipert. Big, sturdy defensive defenseman who plays a physical game. (Washington)

No. 162 overall G Alexis Gravel. Halifax Mooseheads goalie has been more effective in playoffs than regular season. Had an .893 SP in 2019-20. (Chicago)

No. 172 overall LC Mitchell Hoelscher. Two-way center who had a big OHL season (34-42-76 in 62 games) for Ottawa 67’s. Increased his goal scoring total by 24 year over year. He could get a contract. (NJD)

No. 185 overall RD Xavier Bouchard. Big defender with good speed took a big step forward (46 points in 60 games) in 2018-19. He did not repeat the performance this past season. (Vegas)

No. 208 overall G Jordan Kooy. Pedestrian post-draft numbers, his SP in 2019-20 was .889 in Sarnia and .901 in Oshawa. (Vegas)

No. 209 overall G Zachary Bouthillier. He was backup for Chicoutimi and then Saint John, .897 SP in 2019-20 is the best of his junior career. (Toronto)

No. 217 overall LW Eric Florchuk. Big winger has 20-goal ability at the WHL level but hasn’t developed a real strength that makes him stand out. He’s 6.02, 182 so will get a contract but it could be AHL or Europe. (Washington)

The Oilers drafted and signed Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and Olivier Rodrigue from the 2018 draft. Michael Kesselring and Patrik Siikanen, also drafted by Edmonton, have later signing deadlines.

I think Corcoran, in terms of math and progression, represents the most attractive name. Others who are worth signing, drafting or signing are Henman, Fonstadt, Chisholm and Hoelscher.

The last player Edmonton drafted inside the top 100 who didn’t receive an NHL contract was Marco Roy, the Oilers should have signed him.

2020-21 50-MAN

Corcoran would fit inside this 50-man expertly, giving the Oilers an increased chance of continuing what has been a nice RHD pipeline in recent seasons. I expect the best on the list above will be signed in the next two weeks.

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75 Responses to "Signed, Sealed and Delivered"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Interesting list of potential free agents.

    On that note, something that will need to be determined at some point is the “important dates” including the deadline to sign the 2018 CHL picks – I anticipate that will be extended.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to the list, the Oilers do need a 3C and/or a scoring winger but with all of AA, Ennis, Nygard, Benson in the mix (along with Chiasson and Neal) is there a “need” to sign a tweener skilled player?

  3. McNuge93 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    But we wouldn’t be looking at these free agents to play in the NHL anytime soon. I think the point is our forward prospect pool is weak and if we can add one or two off these guys into our farm system as young prospects.

  4. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair:
    A look at draft success by round.

    https://dobberprospects.com/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    “As you can see from here, the success rate drops massively from pick 25 to pick 31,”

    this is why it would be unwise for Edmonton to trade down …

    I think LT has it covered when it says a team hopes to land 2 NHL players out of each draft … that’s a win ..

  5. geowal says:

    Not seeing the link between unsigned 2018s and the Oilers 2015 draft experience. John Marino cause they couldn’t sign him?

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    McNuge93:
    OriginalPouzar,

    But we wouldn’t be looking at these free agents to play in the NHL anytime soon. I think the point is our forward prospect pool is weak and if we can add one or two off these guys into our farm system as young prospects.

    Fair enough.

    With respect to that RD that the host mentions – another RD for Bakersfield would be very helpful as the Condors look to be super thin (even before Bouchard gets recalled to the NHL): Bouchard, Jacks, Deharnais….

  7. Victoria Oil says:

    LT – other than ‘handedness’, is there any reason why you prefer Corcoran over Chisholm (who has had a nice spike offensively the last couple years up to an NHLE of 31)?

  8. defmn says:

    jtblack: “As you can see from here, the success rate drops massively from pick 25 to pick 31,”

    this is why it would be unwise for Edmonton to trade down …

    I think LT has it covered when it says a team hopes to land 2 NHL players out of each draft … that’s a win ..

    If the average draft was producing 59.8 players who played a significant # of games in a 30 team league as the article claims I would suggest that getting 2 players per draft is closer to average than it is to a win.

    I didn’t really see anything in the article of any significance. More noise than signal imo.

  9. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack: “As you can see from here, the success rate drops massively from pick 25 to pick 31,”

    this is why it would be unwise for Edmonton to trade down …

    I think LT has it covered when it says a team hopes to land 2 NHL players out of each draft … that’s a win ..

    The author raised the question if NHL teams have gotten better at drafting since 2010 and a cursory look indicates that it’s a 50/50 proposition.

    I looked at the drafts from 2011 to 2015 to see the number of players drafted 25-31 who made the cut.

    2011 (Player, GP)

    Phillip Danault 339
    Vlad Namestnikov 425
    Richard Rakell 447

    50% success rate

    2012

    Brendan Gaunce 118
    Brady Skjei 315
    Tanner Pearson 457

    50% success rate

    2013

    Shea Theodore 264
    Marko Dano 141
    Jason Dickinson 170
    Ryan Hartman 314

    66% success rate

    2014

    David Pastrnak 390
    Nikolay Goldobin 125
    Adrian Kempe 256

    50% success rate

    2015
    Jack Roslovic 180
    Jacob Larsson 113
    Anthony Beauvillier 286

    50% success rate

    There are 2-3 players from the later drafts who still have a chance to hit the 100GP mark but it seems the chances of hitting an NHL player in the 25-31 slots is about 50/50.

    Does this mean it’s worthwhile to trade down from the those slots if you can pick up 2 seconds or a second and a prospect?

  10. slopitch says:

    I like Mathesons suggestion of JP for ottawas 3rd 1st. Its a deep draft, time to undo the ghosts of 2003 and 2015.

  11. Lowetide says:

    Victoria Oil:
    LT – other than ‘handedness’, is there any reason why you prefer Corcoran over Chisholm (who has had a nice spike offensively the last couple years up to an NHLE of 31)?

    Handedness, as it pertains to the Oilers, makes Corcoran more valuable the Chisholm. So the answer is no, nothing other than handedness and that could be a different answer depending on team.

  12. Munny says:

    slopitch:
    I like Mathesons suggestion of JP for ottawas 3rd 1st. Its a deep draft, time to undo the ghosts of 2003 and 2015.

    I hope Dorion likes it just as much.

  13. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: The author raised the question if NHL teams have gotten better at drafting since 2010 and a cursory look indicates that it’s a 50/50 proposition.

    I’m not sure how this can be separated from the flip side of the coin:

    Have younger cheaper players been given more opportunity in the last decade than they have in prior ones?

  14. Harpers Hair says:

    slopitch:
    I like Mathesons suggestion of JP for ottawas 3rd 1st. Its a deep draft, time to undo the ghosts of 2003 and 2015.

    I would imagine Ottawa would be looking for a young D instead of a RW since they only have 4 D under contract for next season.

  15. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: I would imagine Ottawa would be looking for a young D instead of a RW since they only have 4 D under contract for next season.

    Puljujarvi and Benning for a 1st and 3rd (maybe 2nd?) from Ottawa would make some sense.

    Ottawa’s is slated to pick #2, #3 and #18 so that “3rd 1st” has significant value.

  16. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Puljujarvi and Benning for a 1st and 3rd (maybe 2nd?) from Ottawa would make some sense.

    Ottawa’s is slated to pick #2, #3 and #18 so that “3rd 1st” has significant value.

    Ottawa also has FOUR second round picks so that might get some traction.

  17. jp says:

    My goodness the Oilers nailed that 2015 draft.

    4 NHLers on 6 picks. McDavid plus what look to be 3 NHL top 4 D picked 117, 124 and 154.

    The 2 misses were 20 year olds Miroslav Svoboda and Ziyat Paigin, both picked after #200 and both 25 years old now.

    Svoboda signed with Colorado (was it?), played 14 ECHL games last season and was back as a starter in the Czech league this season.

    Paigin had that 12 game stint in Bakersfield in 2017 then back to the KHL. I recall a little angst about his handling at the time. It may have been legitimate but he also hasn’t been a strong KHL player since his return (100GP 7G 17A 24P).

    But those first 4 picks, wow.

  18. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair,

    “Does this mean it’s worthwhile to trade down from the those slots if you can pick up 2 seconds or a second and a prospect?”

    No. Keep the pick, which should be closer to 20-25 range. That value outweighs the value of an early + late 2nd round pick.

    Not saying that Holland shouldn’t try and grab 1 or 2 – 2nd round picks. He should, but not at the expense of trading down the 1st rounder ..

  19. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Puljujarvi and Benning for a 1st and 3rd (maybe 2nd?) from Ottawa would make some sense.

    Ottawa’s is slated to pick #2, #3 and #18 so that “3rd 1st” has significant value.

    Another team to keep an eye on would be Montreal with a total of 14 picks although only one in the first round which they would never give up.

    They have three second round picks and have two young Finns on the roster in Lehkonen and Kotkaniemi who might ease Jesse’s transition back to NA.

  20. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Ottawa also has FOUR second round picks so that might get some traction.

    Yes, definitely possible. Just acknowledging the value of #18, which is not the same as #30.

  21. duct tape and foil says:

    A JP plus Benning package is pretty appealing and should net a nice player or pick(s). Would prefer to tie Russell to JP if possible. OTT and MTL look like obvious partners.

  22. jp says:

    duct tape and foil:
    A JP plus Benning package is pretty appealing and should net a nice player or pick(s). Would prefer to tie Russell to JP if possible. OTT and MTL look like obvious partners.

    Definitely would be good to move Russell to a new destination. As HH mentioned Ottawa has only 4 D signed for next year (they actually only have 4F under contract as well) and his cap hit won’t matter to them. Who knows what his 15 team list will be though..

  23. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: With respect to that RD that the host mentions – another RD for Bakersfield would be very helpful as the Condors look to be super thin (even before Bouchard gets recalled to the NHL): Bouchard, Jacks, Deharnais….

    Bakersfield definitely has a dearth of RD, I guess one of the lefties will move over as Jones, Lagesson and others have in recent years.

    They do have a decent crew of quality D (ignoring handedness) and as I’ve mentioned before Yanni Kaldis looks to me like he should be a good AHL player (though also a LD).

    https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/219036/yanni-kaldis

  24. MushedPeas says:

    jp,

    Benning+JP is an appealing enough package I’d almost hate to ‘dilute’ it with Krusty. Could return, imo, a very high pick/prospect, one making contributions during peak McDavid/Drai.

  25. jp says:

    MushedPeas:
    jp,

    Benning+JP is an appealing enough package I’d almost hate to ‘dilute’ it with Krusty. Could return, imo, a very high pick/prospect, one making contributions during peak McDavid/Drai.

    Yeah that’s a very good point.

    If Russell were willing to go to Ottawa the tax might not be big though (or any), since he’ll only cost $1.5M and his cap hit won’t matter to them. Tough to know.

  26. slopitch says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Ya id be curious what Jones would fetch for picks. Doubt Id dangle him tbh but its gonna be hard to get a quality pick from Ottawa otherwise (like u said). From a depth/expansion standpoint, its not the worst to consider. It will also be tough to move Russell and youd hope Broberg is close in 16 months.

    And yes 3rd 1st undersells the value at 18. Its worth a ton. Continuing the Jones idea: “is there roster spot on the Oilers where they could possibly sell off and replace for assets cheaper than what you get back”. 2 options could be a) nurse (can Jones play 2LD?) or b) Nuge (can they sign Hall?). I dont think Holland does either given they should be trying to win sooner than later with 97. Kinda interesting though.

    So its pretty much JP for best package of picks or try to bring him back.

  27. Victoria Oil says:

    jp:
    My goodness the Oilers nailed that 2015 draft.

    4 NHLers on 6 picks. McDavid plus what look to be 3 NHL top 4 D picked 117, 124 and 154.

    The 2 misses were 20 year olds Miroslav Svoboda and Ziyat Paigin, both picked after #200 and both 25 years old now.

    Svoboda signed with Colorado (was it?), played 14 ECHL games last season and was back as a starter in the Czech league this season.

    Paigin had that 12 game stint in Bakersfield in 2017 then back to the KHL. I recall a little angst about his handling at the time. It may have been legitimate but he also hasn’t been a strong KHL player since his return (100GP 7G 17A 24P).

    But those first 4 picks, wow.

    Pardon me for dredging up the past, but we could be saying “those first 7 (or 9) picks, holy smokes!’ were it not for a couple trades that were made plus having to give up a pick to the Sharks for TMac’.

    I know….coulda, woulda, shoulda.

  28. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: The author raised the question if NHL teams have gotten better at drafting since 2010 and a cursory look indicates that it’s a 50/50 proposition.

    I looked at the drafts from 2011 to 2015 to see the number of players drafted 25-31 who made the cut.

    2011 (Player, GP)

    Phillip Danault 339
    Vlad Namestnikov 425
    Richard Rakell 447

    50% success rate

    2012

    Brendan Gaunce 118
    Brady Skjei 315
    Tanner Pearson 457

    50% success rate

    2013

    Shea Theodore 264
    Marko Dano 141
    Jason Dickinson 170
    Ryan Hartman 314

    66% success rate

    2014

    David Pastrnak 390
    Nikolay Goldobin 125
    Adrian Kempe 256

    50% success rate

    2015
    Jack Roslovic 180
    Jacob Larsson 113
    Anthony Beauvillier 286

    50% success rate

    There are 2-3 players from the later drafts who still have a chance to hit the 100GP mark but it seems the chances of hitting an NHL player in the 25-31 slots is about 50/50.

    Does this mean it’s worthwhile to trade down from the those slots if you can pick up 2 seconds or a second and a prospect?

    100 gp should never be used as a success for first round pick. 5th round pick sure but first round heck no. Even getting depth players that played a lot of games like Hartman I wouldnt count as a success.
    Only way I count a first round success pick is 4 seasons of top 6 or top 4d play otherwise its a miss
    If you are using Marko Dano as a marker of success for a first round pick you are doing it wrong. At age 25 he is still an AHLer and not even a good one

  29. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: 100 gp should never be used as a success for first round pick.5th round pick sure but first round heck no.Even getting depth players that played a lot of games like Hartman I wouldnt count as a success.
    Only way I count a first round success pick is 4 seasons of top 6 or top 4d play otherwise its a miss

    That approach ignores the vast difference between top 15 and bottom 15 picks.

  30. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    slopitch:
    I like Mathesons suggestion of JP for ottawas 3rd 1st. Its a deep draft, time to undo the ghosts of 2003 and 2015.

    I like it too … in fact, I like it a lot. Too bad Ottawa won’t like it much. I’m pretty sure they would tell Kenny the same thing if he proposed such … after they overcame their bout of uncontrollable laughter.

  31. duct tape and foil says:

    jp: Definitely would be good to move Russell to a new destination. As HH mentioned Ottawa has only 4 D signed for next year (they actually only have 4F under contract as well) and his cap hit won’t matter to them. Who knows what his 15 team list will be though..

    I think people are going to be surprised on the return for Russell. Trading a legit NHL dman on an expiring contract whose cap hit is far higher then his 3rd pair level real salary could really help a team with pre-existing financial issues get through next season. Teams like OTT, ARZ, FLA CAR probably want to effectively run below the salary cap and a contract like Russell’s helps achieve that. Depends on Katz’s finances really.

    If Katz is in trouble then it’s a guy like Nurse who might get dealt. Have not heard anything but the decision to sell Rexall and go into the movie business might turn out to be a mini-Seagrams type of bad investment decision given the current socio-economic environment. The entertainment industry is very effective at separating those with a need to “go Hollywood” from their cash generated in more mundane (but sustainable) activities like drug stores.

  32. JimmyV1965 says:

    jp: Puljujarvi and Benning for a 1st and 3rd (maybe 2nd?) from Ottawa would make some sense.

    Ottawa’s is slated to pick #2, #3 and #18 so that “3rd 1st” has significant value.

    I sure wouldn’t give up 18OV in this year’s draft for JP.

  33. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: How close to NHL-ready is Ryan McLeod? Five comparable forwards who were drafted before him offer 4 reasonable time lines for success and one cautionary tale.

    https://theathletic.com/1815127/2020/05/16/lowetide-exploring-oilers-prospect-ryan-mcleods-possible-nhl-path/

  34. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    A name I’m keeping an eye on is Jakob Stenqvist. 22 yr old Swedish RD playing in Finland posted some really solid numbers (32p in 55 games), and is supposedly a strong skater known for his puck moving. Was a teammate of Niemelainen.

    Maybe there’s something I don’t know about the guy that details why Dallas hasn’t signed him, but that strikes me as a good player to pursue given Dallas loses his rights as of June 1st.

  35. Harpers Hair says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    A name I’m keeping an eye on is Jakob Stenqvist. 22 yr old Swedish RD playing in Finland posted some really solid numbers (32p in 55 games), and is supposedly a strong skater known for his puck moving. Was a teammate of Niemelainen.

    Maybe there’s something I don’t know about the guy that details why Dallas hasn’t signed him, but that strikes me as a good player to pursue given Dallas loses his rights as of June 1st.

    Another Dallas draft pick, Julius Honka is also still looking for a new home.

  36. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Harpers Hair: Another Dallas draft pick, Julius Honka is also still looking for a new home.

    Only concern there being that he’d require assets to acquire given they still own his rights until he’s 27. Assuming they don’t sign him in the next 2 weeks, Stenqvist will be a UFA. That being said, Honka could perhaps be a solid 3RD solution given appropriate deployment (softened 3rd pair).

  37. pts2pndr says:

    defmn: If the average draft was producing 59.8 playerswho played a significant # of games in a 30 team league as the article claims I would suggest that getting 2 players per draft is closer to average than it is to a win.

    I didn’t really see anything in the article of any significance. More noise than signal imo.

    I would suggest that two per year might be closer to minimum required. It would seem to me that a success rate of 35% is not a high bar but is still probably better than the mean.

  38. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair,

    No it shouldnt. Every pick should be a swing for the fences. The top 15 should be more likely to get you a good player but you still hope you get a good player down lower. Marko Dano wouldnt trade for a 4th rounder right now so cant justify that he was worth a first rounder in the first place. Same as a lot of the “success” picks you listed. They just bled value and werent anything close to a successful pick.

    Also I’ve never seen anyone use 100 games as a line in the sand.

  39. Harpers Hair says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Only concern there being that he’d require assets to acquire given they still own his rights until he’s 27. Assuming they don’t sign him in the next 2 weeks, Stenqvist will be a UFA. That being said, Honka could perhaps be a solid 3RD solution given appropriate deployment (softened 3rd pair).

    I think Dallas has pretty much given up on him.

    A 7 th round picks would likely do it.

  40. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    Harpers Hair,

    No it shouldnt.Every pick should be a swing for the fences. The top 15 should be more likely to get you a good player but you still hope you get a good player down lower. Marko Dano wouldnt trade for a 4th rounder right now so cant justify that he was worth a first rounder in the first place.Same as a lot of the “success” picks you listed.They just bled value and werent anything close to a successful pick.

    Also I’ve never seen anyone use 100 games as a line in the sand.

    You’re making an excellent case for the top of the first round being fertile ground and bottom third being a 50/50 proposition.

    You can swing for the fences all you like but history shows you’re going to miss half the time.

    How many GP do you consider success?

    200…300…500?

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    slopitch:
    I like Mathesons suggestion of JP for ottawas 3rd 1st. Its a deep draft, time to undo the ghosts of 2003 and 2015.

    Well, sure, that would be great but I think most are of the opinion that Jesse will not net a first rounder on his own – even a later first rounder with a team loaded with picks.

    Could be wrong but it seems like an unlikely trade to be consumated.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Yeah that’s a very good point.

    If Russell were willing to go to Ottawa the tax might not be big though (or any), since he’ll only cost $1.5M and his cap hit won’t matter to them. Tough to know.

    Will Rusty agree to go to Ottawa?

    P.S. As I anticipate it will come: I don’t buy in to management giving him an “ultimatum” of sorts that its either (a) accept a trade or (b) sit in the press box – I don’t think they’ll do that and, even if they did, I don’t think it will convince Rusty to consent to a destination off his list.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: 100 gp should never be used as a success for first round pick.5th round pick sure but first round heck no.Even getting depth players that played a lot of games like Hartman I wouldnt count as a success.
    Only way I count a first round success pick is 4 seasons of top 6 or top 4d play otherwise its a miss
    If you are using Marko Dano as a marker of success for a first round pick you are doing it wrong.At age 25 he is still an AHLer and not even a good one

    Do you not count, say, Andrew Cogliano, as a success? I wouldn’t categorize him as a top 6 player (generally).

  44. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Harpers Hair: I think Dallas has pretty much given up on him.

    A 7 th round picks would likely do it.

    That seems to be what other team’s fans are saying about us with Puljujarvi, but I don’t think that’s true of most of us. Tough to say, I guess.

  45. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Do you not count, say, Andrew Cogliano, as a success? I wouldn’t categorize him as a top 6 player (generally).

    Many, many many, first round picks end up having long careers in bottom 6 roles.

  46. Harpers Hair says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: That seems to be what other team’s fans are saying about us with Puljujarvi, but I don’t think that’s true of most of us. Tough to say, I guess.

    Dallas has been trying to trade him for two years with no success.

  47. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Harpers Hair: Dallas has been trying to trade him for two years with no success.

    Yes, they’ve been trying and yet no one has met their market ask. I’d say that hints to them asking for more than a 6th or 7th for him and I doubt that’s likely to change if they’ve already held out for 2 years.

  48. Lowetide says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Yes, they’ve been trying and yet no one has met their market ask. I’d say that hints to them asking for more than a 6th or 7th for him and I doubt that’s likely to change if they’ve already held out for 2 years.

    Except that he’s UFA 2022 summer.

  49. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OriginalPouzar: Do you not count, say, Andrew Cogliano, as a success? I wouldn’t categorize him as a top 6 player (generally).

    I think a variable rate works better for determining 1st round pick success. Something along the lines of:

    1st overall pick: 700+ games of elite play OR 1000+ games of top-6/top-4
    2nd to 3rd: 500+ games of elite play OR 800+ games of top-6/top-4
    4th to 10th: 300+ games of elite play OR 600+ games of top-6/top-4
    11th to 15th: 500+ games of top-6/top-4 OR 700+ games of high end top-9/3rd pair
    16th to 20th: 400+ games of top-6/top-4 OR 600+ games of high end top-9/3rd pair
    21st to 31st: 300+ games of top-6/top-4 OR 500+ games of high end top-9/3rd pair

    But then again, this would have to vary by draft quality and probably some other factors I haven’t considered yet. Tough to come up with any absolute determination of determining what is a good or failed pick.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    duct tape and foil: I think people are going to be surprised on the return for Russell. Trading a legit NHL dman on an expiring contract whose cap hit is far higher then his 3rd pair level real salary could really help a team with pre-existing financial issues get through next season. Teams like OTT, ARZ, FLA CAR probably want to effectively run below the salary cap and a contract like Russell’s helps achieve that. Depends on Katz’s finances really.

    If Katz is in trouble then it’s a guy like Nurse who might get dealt. Have not heard anything but the decision to sell Rexall and go into the movie business might turn out to be a mini-Seagrams type of bad investment decision given the current socio-economic environment. The entertainment industry is very effective at separating those with a need to “go Hollywood” from their cash generated in more mundane (but sustainable) activities like drug stores.

    Out of those four teams you mentioned, only Ottawa would really fit the bill.

    The other three teams were all upper cap limit teams this year – actually all of them were over the cap and had to use LTIR over-ages.

    Panthers’ ownership has mandated reducing salary (I believe) so they could potentially be interested but my point is really that there are very few teams that don’t’ have the upper cap limit as an important (limiting) factor in roster building.

    Factoring in Rusty’s L-NTC – I think it remains a tough contract to move clean.

  51. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Lowetide: Except that he’s UFA 2022 summer.

    Yeah, so maybe another year from now they’ll drop their ask. Even then, if the difference between bending and not is a 6th or 7th, then maybe they just hold out and force him to wait the extra year to make a point to future prospects that they’ll act on their own terms and won’t be bullied into moves for less than what they want.

    That’s not to say I think that tactic would work or be wise, but it wouldn’t surprise me if any team went that way.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Another Dallas draft pick, Julius Honka is also still looking for a new home.

    Would he clear waivers? I’d be interested in him for organizational depth but, with current roster construction, he’d be on the outside looking in.

    A potential cheap “replacement” for Benning to compete with Bouchard for 3RD/1st RD call-up.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Many, many many, first round picks end up having long careers in bottom 6 roles.

    Yes, I agree – It seems LF would think of those as failures though – hence my example.

  54. defmn says:

    The MLB trying to make sense of their season and how to get back to work. It gives some insights into the challenges faced by the NHL if they have to play without fans.

    https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/05/16/mlb-anticipating-losing-640-thousand-per-game-no-fans-coronavirus?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sinow&utm_source=twitter.com&xid=socialflow_twitter_si

    MLB said 2019 revenue was 39% local gate and other in-park sources, followed by 25% central revenue, 22% local media, 11% sponsorship and 4% other.

  55. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: You’re making an excellent case for the top of the first round being fertile ground and bottom third being a 50/50 proposition.

    You can swing for the fences all you like but history shows you’re going to miss half the time.

    How many GP do you consider success?

    200…300…500?

    I think success should be in complete seasons played. I would say success would be two completed seasons with the same team. Many players reach the 200 hundred games with partial seasons with a number of teams hoping for better results. To my way of thinking that player is not successful just right place numerous times.

  56. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Will Rusty agree to go to Ottawa?

    P.S. As I anticipate it will come: I don’t buy in to management giving him an “ultimatum” of sorts that its either (a) accept a trade or (b) sit in the press box – I don’t think they’ll do that and, even if they did, I don’t think it will convince Rusty to consent to a destination off his list.

    Will Russell go to team XXXX is also always a question.

    No idea on Ottawa, but he does need to choose 15 teams. And Holland’s job to see if he can swing a deal that works for the Oilers and one of those teams. I won’t say moving Russell is a given but it’s not even in the same time zone as moving Lucic. So while I won’t claim to have a clue about the specifics I expect it will most likely happen.

    I do agree with you though that Holland won’t try to force Russell’s hand with an ultimatum.

  57. jp says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Honka’s also just not that good. He’s 2.5 years older than Puljujarvi and has only played 87 NHL games (Puljujarvi already 139). He at no point established himself as an NHL regular, and this year in Finland was really mediocre as far as I can tell (4th among D on his team in points and 3rd in +/-).

    It’s possible he’d be of interest as a 7/8D option but I suspect the Stars and the rest of the NHL are just apathetic on what he does next.

  58. jp says:

    Victoria Oil: Pardon me for dredging up the past, but we could be saying “those first 7 (or 9) picks, holy smokes!’ were it not for a couple trades that were made plus having to give up a pick to the Sharks for TMac’.

    I know….coulda, woulda, shoulda.

    That’s absolutely fair. The Oilers sent a LOT away that draft. Still, if you draft 4 core (the 3 look like top 4 D) players with any regularity you’re going to be in good shape. And I was awarding points for degree of difficulty in finding 3 legit players after pick 100.

  59. jp says:

    duct tape and foil: I think people are going to be surprised on the return for Russell. Trading a legit NHL dman on an expiring contract whose cap hit is far higher then his 3rd pair level real salary could really help a team with pre-existing financial issues get through next season. Teams like OTT, ARZ, FLA CAR probably want to effectively run below the salary cap and a contract like Russell’s helps achieve that. Depends on Katz’s finances really.

    If Katz is in trouble then it’s a guy like Nurse who might get dealt. Have not heard anything but the decision to sell Rexall and go into the movie business might turn out to be a mini-Seagrams type of bad investment decision given the current socio-economic environment. The entertainment industry is very effective at separating those with a need to “go Hollywood” from their cash generated in more mundane (but sustainable) activities like drug stores.

    Yeah I really have no idea. Opinions on Russell range from “almost unmovable” to “some teams will want him”. I’m somewhere in the middle, plus he does have power to pick his list of 15 destinations which makes it more difficult.

    I hope some team will give the Oilers a late round pick for him. I expect the Oilers will have to take back a contract or attach a mid-late pick to move him. Maybe it will be harder than that. I hope you’re right, we shall see.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Will Russell go to team XXXX is also always a question.

    No idea on Ottawa, but he does need to choose 15 teams. And Holland’s job to see if he can swing a deal that works for the Oilers and one of those teams. I won’t say moving Russell is a given but it’s not even in the same time zone as moving Lucic. So while I won’t claim to have a clue about the specifics I expect it will most likely happen.

    I do agree with you though that Holland won’t try to force Russell’s hand with an ultimatum.

    As, I believe, Godot has been saying for a while, if he wants to, Rusty could get strategic about his list and all but block a trade. Ottawa, being a team that could reasonably look to acquire him and being out east (when Rusty expressly would prefer the west), seems like a team not on his trade list but, of course, we don’t know.

    Absolutely, there is no comparison between Rusty and Lucic but lets not forget, the key to the Rusty disposition is for cap space. Lucic was only tradeable with another top end anchor contract coming back – don’t get me wrong, it was a net win, but the trade came with a price.

    I have full confidence that Rusty could also be traded “for a price” – the question is, if he can be traded without having to pay a price.

  61. jp says:

    JimmyV1965: I sure wouldn’t give up 18OV in this year’s draft for JP.

    I wouldn’t either. And I expect he’d be gone already if anyone were offering that. Benning ought to be worth a 2nd/3rd as well though so that was intended to be part of the equation.

    Puljujarvi’s value is a bit of a wild card. A lot here are down on the player but IMO his value around the league is likely higher than it is on this blog. Any team acquiring him can also write him into their lineup for next season. That added to top 6 upside should have pretty significant value.

    Maybe there’s no 3rd added to the Ott 1st, but I think Puljujarvi + Benning would have #18 kind of value. Time will tell.

  62. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: I wouldn’t either. And I expect he’d be gone already if anyone were offering that. Benning ought to be worth a 2nd/3rd as well though so that was intended to be part of the equation.

    Puljujarvi’s value is a bit of a wild card. A lot here are down on the player but IMO his value around the league is likely higher than it is on this blog. Any team acquiring him can also write him into their lineup for next season. That added to top 6 upside should have pretty significant value.

    Maybe there’s no 3rd added to the Ott 1st, but I think Puljujarvi + Benning would have #18 kind of value. Time will tell.

    Looking at it from Ottawa’s point of view, could they do better eighteenth overall pick?

    I think they could as cap strapped teams are forced to move out salary.

    Lots of moving parts.

  63. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: As, I believe, Godot has been saying for a while, if he wants to, Rusty could get strategic about his list and all but block a trade. Ottawa, being a team that could reasonably look to acquire him and being out east (when Rusty expressly would prefer the west), seems like a team not on his trade list but, of course, we don’t know.

    Absolutely, there is no comparison between Rusty and Lucic but lets not forget, the key to the Rusty disposition is for cap space.Lucic was only tradeable with another top end anchor contract coming back – don’t get me wrong, it was a net win, but the trade came with a price.

    I have full confidence that Rusty could also be traded “for a price” – the question is, if he can be traded without having to pay a price.

    I acknowledged that there may be a price attached to moving Russell.

    I expect Russell’s list will balance places he wouldn’t hate to play with places that shouldn’t have cap space for him. But Godot could be right.

    Even if he picked exclusively cap-strapped teams he could be moved for a similar player who’s more useful to the Oilers, or with a pick attached. As you say. That’s fine with me if it’s what’s available.

    Is Russell and a 3rd enough to bring back Ryan from Calgary? Russell and Benning? (or Russell and a 2nd the Oilers don’t currently have?). Just an example but I wouldn’t have no issue with that kind of a result.

  64. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Looking at it from Ottawa’s point of view, could they do better eighteenth overall pick?

    I think they could as cap strapped teams are forced to move out salary.

    Lots of moving parts.

    Maybe Ottawa could get more. But Puljujarvi and Benning should fill 2 roster spots (3RW and 4-6D) capably for $3M total. And both could be long term solutions for the team. But lots of moving parts, agreed.

  65. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Do you not count, say, Andrew Cogliano, as a success? I wouldn’t categorize him as a top 6 player (generally).

    He has carved a nice long career for himself, but no I would not count it as a success. Except for his first season I dont think he would bring back a first round pick in a trade.
    Generally 4 seasons of top 6 forward or top 4 d. If its questionable ask yourself would the player bring back a first round pick when traded in his career.

  66. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: You’re making an excellent case for the top of the first round being fertile ground and bottom third being a 50/50 proposition.

    You can swing for the fences all you like but history shows you’re going to miss half the time.

    How many GP do you consider success?

    200…300…500?

    Does getting 500 games of a 4th line face puncher make a pick successful??
    No.
    I dont find games played that useful as they dont differentiate guys that played 5 min a night from guys that played 20 min a night.

    4 season of top 6 F or top 4 D.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think your definition of “success” for a pick in the last third of the first round would differ from all 31 of the current NHL GMs plus Ron Francis.

    If your told a GM that a certain player would have a career that mirrors Coglaino, I think each and every GM would rush to make that pick at 25.

    I could be wrong but that’s what I think.

  68. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think your definition of “success” for a pick in the last third of the first round would differ from all 31 of the current NHL GMs plus Ron Francis.

    If your told a GM that a certain player would have a career that mirrors Coglaino,I think each and every GM would rush to make that pick at 25.

    I could be wrong but that’s what I think.

    Agree completely.

  69. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think your definition of “success” for a pick in the last third of the first round would differ from all 31 of the current NHL GMs plus Ron Francis.

    If your told a GM that a certain player would have a career that mirrors Coglaino,I think each and every GM would rush to make that pick at 25.

    I could be wrong but that’s what I think.

    Of course you get caught up in the grey areas instead of all the players that were listed as success as they are spending the mid 20s in the Ahl

  70. jp says:

    leadfarmer: Does getting 500 games of a 4th line face puncher make a pick successful??
    No.
    I dont find games played that useful as they dont differentiate guys that played 5 min a night from guys that played 20 min a night.

    4 season of top 6 F or top 4 D.

    I agree with your general point, and agree also that using 100GP as a cutoff is highly questionable (though I think Scott Cullen, who LT cites regularly, also used 100GP. Or it may have been 200GP…)

    Anyway, while I generally agree with you, using the criteria you’re suggesting would all but prevent any systematic look at the original question (What is the value of a draft pick?).

    4 seasons as top 6/top4 is 1) inherently subjective and 2) exponentially more difficult to quantify than a GP or points number (even if one could find a way to do it relatively un-biasedly).

    So if we were all to agree on your criteria… Well most probably no one would have tried to answer the question at all. And if they had we’d be arguing as much or more about who was/was not included as top 6/top 4 as we are now about the validity of 100GP.

    While not perfect (what ever is) I’d guess a 300 or 400 or 500 GP cutoff would come a lot closer to your criteria while still being tractable.

  71. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Does getting 500 games of a 4th line face puncher make a pick successful??
    No.
    I dont find games played that useful as they dont differentiate guys that played 5 min a night from guys that played 20 min a night.

    4 season of top 6 F or top 4 D.

    So from the first round of the 2014 draft, only 4 players have crossed your bar.

    Might want to re-think things.

  72. duct tape and foil says:

    Sure several teams spent to the cap going for it in hopes of gaining the playoff revenue – but they are all bottom tier in terms of revenue and are vulnerable to a hit to their bottom lines. Behavior last year provides little guidance on behavior next year. Some of these teams will be struggling to survive as ownership will likely be pressed on both hockey and non-hockey revenue sides.

    OriginalPouzar: Out of those four teams you mentioned, only Ottawa would really fit the bill.

    The other three teams were all upper cap limit teams this year – actually all of them were over the cap and had to use LTIR over-ages.

    Panthers’ ownership has mandated reducing salary (I believe) so they could potentially be interested but my point is really that there are very few teams that don’t’ have the upper cap limit as an important (limiting) factor in roster building.

    Factoring in Rusty’s L-NTC – I think it remains a tough contract to move clean.

  73. Lowetide says:

    We’ve been down the GP vs. points-per-game vs. where they play on the depth chart and it doesn’t make any difference. The best players play a long time. Cogliano has played over 1,000 games. If you don’t count him as a good draft pick then your measurement isn’t going to be taken seriously.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Of course you get caught up in the grey areas instead of all the players that were listed as success as they are spending the mid 20s in the Ahl

    I think there are a multitude of options between playing in the AHL in the mid-20s and top 6 scoring forward.

    I listed one of many examples of successful 1st round forward picks that aren’t top 6 forwards.

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