Next Stop Chi-town

On the day he was drafted, I wrote about Leon Draisaitl “we should expect a quality center for a decade and then a half of one beyond it. We should expect Jason Arnott’s career numbers. We should expect a helluva player. Big, strong bull of a center who doesn’t look one damn thing like the other forwards who have been taken high in previous seasons. McCurdy called him a nose tackle today, and with those hands, if he can keep up, music!”

For once, this blog’s author was shy on the hyperbole and fell short of Leon Draisaitl’s outer marker. What a hockey player.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

RED LINE ON LEON

Huge German centre is tenacious in puck pursuit with his relentless forecheck often creating chances for linemates. Dominates the game down low with outstanding puck protection. Constantly outthinks the opposition and knows where his outlets are at all times. Has learned to use his size to carve out space for himself and effectively separate opponents from the puck. Strong hockey sense in all three zones leads to good positioning. Traditional playmaking centre finds ‘mates with crisp, accurate passes. Intelligent, two-way, classically schooled centre. Outshone Reinhart in head-to-head action against Kootenay.

Oilers Art Ross Winners: Gretzky (7), McDavid (2), Draisaitl (1)

One of the real joys of the last five years has been watching the big man emerge as an impact player. I used to compare him to Peter Mahovlich because I dared not mentioned he-who-should-not-be-named, even though Leon’s visual resembled what my Dad would say about the electric center. Leon Draisaitl sailed past expectations and kept rising. The Oilers have rarely gotten it more right than they did on draft day 2014. Well done, Mr. MacTavish, Mr. MacGregor, Mr. Green.

OILERS 2019-20

I like this Edmonton group but expecting an easy road against Chicago would be a bad idea. For one, Edmonton’s special teams have been dominant, and referees often put away the whistle in the playoffs. Edmonton has more foot speed than a year ago, but the ‘Hawks can make you pay if the checking isn’t tight. The biggest issue: At five on five, this is a closer contest. More in a minute.

A roster that is in a period of transition, but the strengths (Kane, Crawford, Toews, DeBrincat, Kubalik) are substantial. Oilers will need to play well from the opening whistle. The biggest weakness on either side would appear to be the Chicago defense.

Good to great skaters on both sides, true franchise performers like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Patrick Kane. Jonathan Toews at 32 is enjoying a mid-career resurgence and he can certainly hurt the Oilers in this series.

  • Even Strength Goals Per Game: Chicago 2.87, Edmonton 2.66
  • Even Strength GA Per Game: Chicago 2.87, Edmonton 2.88
  • Even Strength Goal Differential: Chicago 169-169, Edmonton 160-173
  • Power Play Goal Differential: Chicago 33-8, Edmonton 59-10
  • Penalty Kill Goal Differential: Chicago 6-37, Edmonton 3-31
  • Special teams Goal Differential: Chicago 39-45, Edmonton 62-41
  • Even strength save percentage: Chicago .918, Edmonton .908

Draft Lottery

I hope you’ve read the rules already because I’m not giving them to you. Long story short: Ottawa has a good chance at Lafreniere, Yzerman probably yelled at someone between last night and this morning, the Oilers could win the bleeding lottery if they lose to Chicago. If the team loses in that play-in, the worst draft position would be No. 15 overall. Moving up five spots in this draft is a big damned deal.

This is a fairly brazen ask from the NHL. Canada (Alberta) has imposed a two-week quarantine for new arrivals and it’s been working. The NHL wants to ignore that rule but it’s been part of the arsenal our government has been using to protect us. Brazen.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning with interesting people, TSN 1260 beginning at 10. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will talk Leon Draisaitl and make sense of the playoff and lottery formats. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will also have a lash at the NHL playoffs, giving us an idea about how bettors are approaching the Oilers-‘Hawks series, plus KBO trends and teams that are worth a look. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. It’s hammer time!

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161 Responses to "Next Stop Chi-town"

  1. Brantford Boy says:

    LT: “For the James Neal pick ruling, there’s an easy solution. Award Calgary (or Edmonton) a selection at the end of the third round. The Oilers pick currently is No. 82, a pick after the third round would be No. 94. A compensatory pick, as in baseball, is an acceptable result for all”… *spits very large loogie*

    Congrats Leon… we knew it was done already… just give him the Hart too…

    I’m concerned about the Chicago match-up, the Blackhawks ‘were playing’ some good hockey prior to the shutdown… and experience, it’s a thing… think we can do it, but it won’t be a cakewalk.

    Finally getting around to some Oilers reruns in the 42+ games I’ve recorded. Started watching the 1987 Oilers-Flyers series this morning. Without bias, anyone want to take a guess if this is a set play from Messier?
    https://m.facebook.com/watch/?v=1333482936850789&_rdr

    Bring on the hockey… Go Oilers!

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Daniel Nugent-Bowman
    @DNBsports
    ·
    13m
    Not much clarity this morning from the NHL about the following Oilers topics:
    – if 3rd-round pick goes to CGY (Neal-Lucic)
    – if Smith’s games-played total will be prorated for bonus purposes
    – if players from Europe signed before the pause can be added to rosters (Broberg)
    (1/2)
    Daniel Nugent-Bowman
    @DNBsports
    ·
    13m
    From NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly: “All have been considered and discussed. Some are decided. All will ultimately be announced when we are ready to announce. But not in a position to provide answers at this time.”
    (2/2)

  3. barry.moore23 says:

    Can the Coyotes steal a series from Nashville ? That would be great. This ‘tournament’ will be so much fun.

  4. godot10 says:

    Leo.. woah oh oh oh
    He’s for the money
    He’s for the show
    Leo’s waiting for the go

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQZBaJAngH8

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    With, what, a 13 point lead, Leon winning the Art Ross was all but official prior to yesterday. Now its official, congrats Leon.

    Unfortunately, not finishing the season will lead to some unfortunate stat consequences – McDavid won’t hit 100 points, Leon won’t go back to back 50G/100P (on pace for 49.7 goals), Ovie won’t hit 50G (has 48 I think), etc.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to “referees often put their whistles away in the playoffs”, I thought I read some data, on this site, over the last few months that penalties and PPs actually usually increase in the first round, no?

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    With that said, it is worrisome, or a bit worrisome, that the team is so dependant on special teams. A good PP is generally repeatable but, from what I’ve read, the PK can vary widely from year to year.

    I think the deadline acquisitions of Ennis and AA (and Green) should help balance the 5 on 5 play a bit more in the Oilers’ favor – especially with the players getting a training camp before the re-start.

  8. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    With, what, a 13 point lead, Leon winning the Art Ross was all but official prior to yesterday.Now its official, congrats Leon.

    Unfortunately, not finishing the season will lead to some unfortunate stat consequences – McDavid won’t hit 100 points, Leon won’t go back to back 50G/100P (on pace for 49.7 goals), Ovie won’t hit 50G (has 48 I think), etc.

    Well done to Leon! and well done to McDavid, I get that he’s not hit 100, but hitting 97 coming back from that injury in a shortened season is still superhuman. Long may the two of them continue this form.

    I had a heart in mouth moment yesterday when I couldn’t remember who was top goal scorer in the league. For a fleeting moment I thought it was Matthews, the sense of relief when I saw that Ovi and the Pastrnak were joint top was enormous.

  9. JimmyV1965 says:

    Drai will probably be forever underrated because of Connor. It’s a shame. There’s maybe a handful of players who can take over a game like Drai. His ability to make a pass through a bunch of opposition sticks is a thing of beauty.

  10. JimmyV1965 says:

    I agree with LT about the Neal pick. Just award the Flames an extra pick at the end of the third round. Seems like a very easy, sensible solution. Maybe that’s the problem.

  11. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) Tweeted:
    Also, The Province’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Deena Hinshaw sent this letter to Gary Bettman, outlining her support for Edmonton to be a hub city. https://t.co/zPhHwUwm12

  12. Reja says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I agree with LT about the Neal pick. Just award the Flames an extra pick at the end of the third round. Seems like a very easy, sensible solution. Maybe that’s the problem.

    Why in the hell should the flames get rewarded with a extra pick? If the NHL lawyers want to play that game then they better prorate every other stat which we all know isn’t going to happen.

  13. Harpers Hair says:

    @LT

    The Hawks RHD is Adam Boqvist..not Jasper.

  14. dustrock says:

    Yotes don’t have a great roster but if Kuemper gets hot.

    I think the Oilers young legs get back in shape more quickly than the Hawks, which could make a difference. Leon and Connor not playing 30 minutes per night for the last two months gives them extra gas, whereas for guys like Keith and Toews, I’m not sure if they get up to speed.

    However, I have worries about 5v5 scoring and goaltending. Edge goes to the Hawks both ways there.

    If the Hawks had Lehner still, I might actually pick them.

    Oilers in 4.

  15. JimmyV1965 says:

    Reja: Why in the hell should the flames get rewarded witha extra pick? If the NHL lawyers want to play that game then they better prorate every other stat which we all know isn’t going to happen.

    Because it’s the fair, sensible thing to do. MLB does this all the time.

  16. Georges says:

    “… referees often put away the whistle in the playoffs.”

    No, they don’t.

    It’s easy to check.

    Here’s the team PP report for 2018-19:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?aggregate=0&report=powerplay&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20182019&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=ppOpportunitiesPerGame&page=0&pageSize=100

    And here’s the team PP report for the 2018-19 playoffs:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?aggregate=0&report=powerplay&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20182019&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=3&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=ppOpportunitiesPerGame&page=0&pageSize=100

    The median PP Opportunities per GP in the regular season was 2.88. The median PP Opportunities per GP in the playoffs was 3.09. You can check other recent years to see if that holds up. I checked 16-17 and 17-18 and saw that it did.

    I think 11 of the 16 playoff teams had more PP Opps per GP in the playoffs.

    Interestingly, all 5 of the teams that saw a drop in their PP Opps lost in the first round.

    Part of it has to do with more PP’s called during OT. Maybe the numbers aren’t that different when you compare PP’s in just the first 3 periods. Another part has to do with the fact that there is more offensive talent on playoff teams than in the general NHL pool. Offensive talent draws more penalties.

    EDM ranked 22nd on PP Opps per GP this season. Chicago ranked 10th.

    There’s no such thing as home ice in these playoffs. That’s going to be interesting.

    Last season, the median home playoff team drew 3.32 PP per game and the median road playoff home team drew 2.75 PP’s per game.

    Not sure how the refs will call things in empty arenas.

    Oilers may be at a disadvantage here because Chicago is a larger US TV market. In any year, the NHL would prefer CHI over EDM to advance. I think hockey draws mostly a local audience in the States. That probably matters more than featuring CMD and Drai.

  17. leadfarmer says:

    Why should Calgary get a pick?
    Makes no sense.
    Why dont we just reverse all the trade deadline deals while we are at it since some sellers are back in contention

  18. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair:
    @LT

    The Hawks RHD is Adam Boqvist..not Jasper.

    Looks like betting on Mackinnon to beat Mcdavid in the scoring race is going to cost you a C-note and to think you were so exited when Mcdavid’s injury was more severe than first anticipated.

  19. jtblack says:

    leadfarmer:
    Why should Calgary get a pick?
    Makes no sense.
    Why dont we just reverse all the trade deadline deals while we are at it since some sellers are back in contention

    I agree with you. It makes no sense to me why Calgary should get a pick … You get into pro rating stuff and it’s a crap shoot. The reality is Lucic had outscored Neal since X Mas … Neal also barely player many games, which if you prorate that as well, he might have only played 3 or 4 more games .

    Edm deserves to Keep their 3rd round pick. As the condition of Neal scoring 21 Goals was not met.

  20. N64 says:

    “This is a fairly brazen ask from the NHL. Canada (Alberta) has imposed a two-week quarantine for new arrivals and it’s been working. The NHL wants to ignore that rule but it’s been part of the arsenal our government has been using to protect us. Brazen”

    I agree. They should not expect that they can Ignore the rules. The question is does each player need to go into 2 weeks of SELF-QUARANTINE?

    Daly:

    “If we’re not able to really get an interpretation of the quarantine consistent with our players’ ability to travel in and not have to do a strict SELF-QUARANTINE in a hotel room … we won’t be in a position to use any of the Canadian cities as a hub city”

    BC and now AB require a viable 14 day isolation plan. Typically a household will cross and isolate as a household. So what do you do with an entire team that has lived together through the NHL’s phase 3 protocol? So it’s really about delivering an viable written plan meeting the stronger provincial requirements and the feds also signing off.

    We do not know what the federal or relevant provincial interpretations will be, so hard to speculate.
    But here’s one thing we do know:

    AB Premier (May 20):

    “They’ll all have to go through the same screening protocols which should be not difficult for them to do a quick temperature check and provide a an isolation plan. Now I think the part of the idea of the Edmonton bid is this we’ve got the most modern and best arena in the league that just opened a couple of years ago that is connected to a by walkway to a brand new hotel with hundreds of rooms”.

    “So there can be a self-isolation zone in PRINCIPLE between where they’re staying and where they might be practicing in playing and we’ve spoken to the federal government about that and and because obviously the players and their support staff would need comply not only with our own public health orders but also with the federal 14 day quarantine requirement for international travelers arriving from abroad and so the federal government AGREES with us in PRINCIPLE that we could designate a kind of isolation zone for a number of people coming in and and that’s that’s what we’re working on in that respect.”

    But I think this is all academic. Can’t see them crossing the border for the FINAL ROUND.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rishaug with a barrage of tweets this morning regarding Hinshaw sending a memo of guidelines to the NHL on protocol including quarantine.

    Haven’t had a chance to read through it all yet but the province is doing what they can to try and encourage the league to choose Edmonton as a hub.

    https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1265676124362641409

  22. Oil2Oilers says:

    The thing with Leon, and what got him paid before it was obvious, is that he has something that he rarely shows and the playoffs bring out.

    That is old school Gordie Howe nastiness.

    A player so skilled does not need to use it in the regular season, but if a team is dumb enough to piss him off in a playoff series watch out. A wise team would try and bore him, because otherwise he can both physically and offensively dominate.

    A team like Chicago for example, do they put Toews up against Leon or Connor? A 25 year old Toews would have a shot at containing one them, at 32 he better be having one hell of a good Covid break.

  23. defmn says:

    Reja: Why in the hell should the flames get rewarded witha extra pick? If the NHL lawyers want to play that game then they better prorate every other stat which we all know isn’t going to happen.

    If the rumour mill is correct the league has found itself in the position of accommodating various TV networks because clever lawyers inserted clauses covering situations that might interfere with the full completion of the season.

    I would argue on behalf of the Oilers that given that precedent in league business affairs any contract between teams which failed to specifically identify such a possibility has abrogated their right to seek redress since such a clause was known to exist and be in use.

  24. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) Tweeted:
    Also, The Province’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Deena Hinshaw sent this letter to Gary Bettman, outlining her support for Edmonton to be a hub city. https://t.co/zPhHwUwm12

    Indicates she’s provided written guidelines specific to the event and is available for clarifications.

    AB has joined BC in requiring a viable 14 day isolation plan (they decide if it is viable). Will be interesting to see the specific required/allowed in the isolation plan from NHL teams. Because the provincial requirements are stronger if the specific requirements are serious I don’t see the Feds balking.

  25. BONE207 says:

    Re: 2 week quarantine rules…

    Wouldn’t it be just as easy to quarantine flight crews along with the players? Charter planes dedicated to the team only. Bussed from the plane to the hotel. A little extra testing for security, immigration & baggage handling would mitigate any risks. Sooner or later there has to be some trust in the system. I’m going to call mrs. Bettman to get Gary to arrange it…?

  26. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Rishaug with a barrage of tweets this morning regarding Hinshaw sending a memo of guidelines to the NHL on protocol including quarantine.

    Haven’t had a chance to read through it all yet but the province is doing what they can to try and encourage the league to choose Edmonton as a hub.

    https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1265676124362641409

    Good line in the sand.
    Allows teams to quarantine as a cohort and practice during the 14 days.
    Does not allow inter-team games exhibition or otherwise during the 14 days.
    If that does not work for the NHL, fine.

    https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug

  27. Georges says:

    You have Neal and Russell outside the starting lineup. You’ve also picked Koskinen to start in goal.

    I believe both Neal and Russell played when healthy.

    And I think it would also be out of character for Tippett to start Koskinen over Smith.

    We’ll see.

    Also, how the heck did Kubalik get to 46 points playing on CHI’s 3rd line?

  28. flea says:

    N64,

    I think Edmonton (and maybe Vancouver) have the best shot at being a hub city. The province working with the NHL, and Alberta’s response to COVID19 (I’ll argue the best in the country), and low case counts in Alberta makes Edmonton the front runner IMO.

    Hopefully the NHL isn’t just paying lip service to Canadian markets though. Common sense dictates it’s easier to get everyone in one country, with one set of rules rather than splitting it between countries. I’m hoping at least one of the hub cities will be canadian, however I’m not holding my breath either. Fully expect it to be two american cities.

  29. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georges:
    Offensive talent draws more penalties.

    EDM ranked 22nd on PP Opps per GP this season. Chicago ranked 10th.

    Your stats appear to be at odds with the point you made immediately prior.

    We all see Connor get fouled with three or four (or more) times per game with no calls. Like the doughty elbow or the Lindholm elbow. No supplemental discipline from DoPeS either.

  30. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Rishaug with a barrage of tweets this morning regarding Hinshaw sending a memo of guidelines to the NHL on protocol including quarantine.

    Haven’t had a chance to read through it all yet but the province is doing what they can to try and encourage the league to choose Edmonton as a hub.

    https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1265676124362641409

    Shoes all dropping:

    1. NHL announces RTP.
    2. Daly explains they need clarification that teams can quarantine as a cohort (not self-quarantine)
    3. AB CMO sends written guidelines to NHL & Oilers
    4. AB Premier updates the Feds in writing: https://preview.tinyurl.com/y7ht635t

  31. JimmyV1965 says:

    jtblack: I agree with you.It makes no sense to me why Calgary should get a pick … You get into pro rating stuff and it’s a crap shoot.The reality is Lucic had outscored Neal since X Mas … Neal also barely player many games, which if you prorate that as well, he might have only played 3 or 4 more games .

    Edm deserves to Keep their 3rd round pick.As the condition of Neal scoring 21 Goals was not met.

    Edmonton deserves to keep their pick. Calgary deserves to get a pick. They’re not mutually exclusive ideas.

  32. tileguy says:

    My guess Calling the regular season complete Means Edmonton will not have to surrender the pick for Neal, which is the league’s compensation for having Edmonton moving to the play in round.

  33. N64 says:

    fleaI’ll argue the best in the country

    Almost identical death per millions in AB and BC, but Van is denser, which is a bigger challenge. BC also bwent for the long haul with a 50 person mass gathering limit and made that work. Edge BC.

    Both left a lot of non-retail, non-personal services operating but CFIB has AB leading the country with small businesses currently open. Edge AB.

    ~ Dr. Henry has practical in the field pandemic experience and opened strong. Dr. Hinshaw made some great first intermission adjustments and is in the game strong. ~

    flea
    Fully expect it to be two american cities.

    Yep.

  34. N64 says:

    JimmyV1965: Edmonton deserves to keep their pick. Calgary deserves to get a pick. They’re not mutually exclusive ideas.

    The rest of the GMs deserve not to have that pick double up. PA and CBA are not involved. BOG will not get involved. Gary does not like to invent problems to wade into. Expecting the literal reading. Pick to Edmonton.

  35. Someone says:

    JimmyV1965: Edmonton deserves to keep their pick. Calgary deserves to get a pick. They’re not mutually exclusive ideas.

    Why does Calgary deserve the pick? Neal played 55 of 71 games and hardly scored in 2020. He could have been injured or even benched the remainder of the season, or simply not been given PP minutes and not scored any kore, or Lucic could have potted a few.

    I agree this is the most reasonable solution if the NHL deems that Calgary deserves a pick, but the conditions were pretty specific and didn’t include anything about games played. I get that nobody predicted Corona, but they certainly could have bet on a Neal injury.

  36. leadfarmer says:

    JimmyV1965: Edmonton deserves to keep their pick. Calgary deserves to get a pick. They’re not mutually exclusive ideas.

    Because the criteria were not met. Why doesnt every team that hired rentals deserve to get a pick back. They clearly were buyers under different circumstances.
    Should Kassians contract be voided because he was given a contract extension under very different circumstances that if he were to be re-signed now his contract would be significantly lower.
    Why didnt we get a draft pick back when compensation draft pick for fired executives rule was dropped.
    Things change

  37. N64 says:

    leadfarmer: Because the criteria were not met.Why doesnt every team that hired rentals deserve to get a pick back.They clearly were buyers under different circumstances.
    Should Kassians contract be voided because he was given a contract extension under very different circumstances that if he were to be re-signed now his contract would be significantly lower.
    Why didnt we get a draft pick back when compensation draft pick for fired executives rule was dropped.
    Things change

    The comp pick story is exactly why I’ve been telling OP (for months, lol) that Gary will not wade into this

    Gary was not keen on the comp rule for fired mgmt. When the BOG finally killed it Gary was vocal that he did not want any retroactive fixes. In essence they made the mess and he was not going to put any band-aids on the result.

  38. Eh Team says:

    JimmyV1965: Edmonton deserves to keep their pick. Calgary deserves to get a pick. They’re not mutually exclusive ideas.

    Why would Calgary deserve a pick? The terms of the trade are black and white without any contingencies.

  39. oilersfan says:

    If the NHL’s actual priority is player safety they would pick Edmonton and Vancouver. None of the American cities listed come close in terms of current cases.

    I am all for the league/teams getting all the money they can but don’t see any advantage to playing in Vegas where it will be 45 Celsius many days. What are the players supposed to do when they’re not playing? They can’t go outside, it’s unbearable. The weather in Edmonton and Vancouver is excellent in the summer. I don’t get at all why they would have one let alone both cities be in the USA

  40. flyfish1168 says:

    They right way is not to pro rate, it takes away the what ifs example injuries or suspensions.

    If they are to pro rate they should do it in segments and have the last segment valued more.

  41. Eh Team says:

    Here’s a look at Chicago this season.

    https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1258419102244319232

    Good offensive team, but horrible defensively. Very Patrick Kane like.

  42. jtblack says:

    JimmyV1965: Edmonton deserves to keep their pick. Calgary deserves to get a pick. They’re not mutually exclusive ideas.

    why does Calgary deserve to get a pick?

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Holland availability:

    Holland says he will probably carry 10 d-men and at least 16-17 forwards.

    Broberg – he’s a signed player so he is available and eligible to invite (spoke with the league on that). Not sure if they will invite him to come in. Want to make sure that there are players for depth and Broberg would only be invited to gain experience.

    Haven’t talked to them for a while but expect both Green and Nygard to be healthy and available – both were scheduled to be ready to go near the end of the normal regular season.

    He expects a fully healthy roster heading in to training camp.

    Compensation for trades: 19/20 season officially over so Holland “sent in some questions to the league” – waiting for answers.

    Doesn’t know who will be in Edmonton for Phase 2. Will figure out if players are going to stay where they are or if any/some are planning on coming to Edmonton.

    Asked about players in Europe making plans for coming back for Phase 2 – Holland will reach out over the next few days to see what they are thinking and let them know what he is thinking but was clear that all parties know its purely voluntary.

  44. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: Edmonton deserves to keep their pick. Calgary deserves to get a pick. They’re not mutually exclusive ideas.

    Bettman just has to make a decision based on contractual language, and precedent. The draft choice is a single thing, like a baby. It cannot be cut in half.

  45. jtblack says:

    godot10: Bettman just has to make a decision based on contractual language, and precedent.The draft choice is a single thing, like a baby.It cannot be cut in half.

    who says you can’t cut babies in half?

  46. Durag says:

    I’m struggling to understand what the actual benefit of being a hub city is.

    So I get that the Marriott and Katz will make some bucks as a result of getting to host, but I assume those entities are structured so as to pay as little tax in Alberta/Canada as possible. Bars are going to be jammed to whatever capacity they’re allowed during Oilers playoffs games regardless of where they play. I don’t buy the argument that “morale” is boosted by knowing that there are hockey players in our city that we can’t see.

    What am I missing here?

  47. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: Edmonton deserves to keep their pick. Calgary deserves to get a pick. They’re not mutually exclusive ideas.

    I disagree. Calgary doesn’t “deserve” to get a pick.

  48. jtblack says:

    Durag:
    I’m struggling to understand what the actual benefit of being a hub city is.

    So I get that the Marriott and Katz will make some bucks as a result of getting to host, but I assume those entities are structured so as to pay as little tax in Alberta/Canada as possible. Bars are going to be jammed to whatever capacity they’re allowed during Oilers playoffs games regardless of where they play. I don’t buy the argument that “morale” is boosted by knowing that there are hockey players in our city that we can’t see.

    What am I missing here?

    I was wondering the same thing.

    Can’t go to games. can’t see players. Can’t interact with players or media.

    The teams will truly be in a bubble.

    Maybe just good publicity for the city.

  49. bod says:

    Durag,

    Finally someone said it…. Who cares where they play?

  50. Eh Team says:

    Durag: I’m struggling to understand what the actual benefit of being a hub city is.
    So I get that the Marriott and Katz will make some bucks as a result of getting to host, but I assume those entities are structured so as to pay as little tax in Alberta/Canada as possible. Bars are going to be jammed to whatever capacity they’re allowed during Oilers playoffs games regardless of where they play. I don’t buy the argument that “morale” is boosted by knowing that there are hockey players in our city that we can’t see.
    What am I missing here?

    Exactly. I’m hoping Edmonton isn’t a host city. It’s just an introduction of risk into the environment. Right now the risk of covid-19 is pretty low in Edmonton, but we shouldn’t assume that it will always be so.

  51. dustrock says:

    jtblack: I was wondering the same thing.

    Can’t go to games. can’t see players. Can’t interact with players or media.

    The teams will truly be in a bubble.

    Maybe just good publicity for the city.

    Yeah, it comes down to good publicity. “Hey, look at us, we were organized and lucky, woot woot”.

    Katz and Holland might get some respect from Bettman and the other owners if they pull it off but otherwise I see no benefit to the average person.

  52. godot10 says:

    Durag:
    I’m struggling to understand what the actual benefit of being a hub city is.

    So I get that the Marriott and Katz will make some bucks as a result of getting to host, but I assume those entities are structured so as to pay as little tax in Alberta/Canada as possible. Bars are going to be jammed to whatever capacity they’re allowed during Oilers playoffs games regardless of where they play. I don’t buy the argument that “morale” is boosted by knowing that there are hockey players in our city that we can’t see.

    What am I missing here?

    People work in those bubble hotels and restaurants. And pay taxes. Many OEG part-timers (security, etc) will get employment. Edmonton has a hotel room tax. Free adverstising of Edmonton to the world when it is not a frozen wasteland.

    If successful, it helps make Edmonton a viable candidate for the next World Cup of Hockey.

  53. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Brantford Boy:
    LT: “For the James Neal pick ruling, there’s an easy solution. Award Calgary (or Edmonton) a selection at the end of the third round. The Oilers pick currently is No. 82, a pick after the third round would be No. 94. A compensatory pick, as in baseball, is an acceptable result for all”… *spits very large loogie*

    Congrats Leon… we knew it was done already… just give him the Hart too…

    I’m concerned about the Chicago match-up, the Blackhawks ‘were playing’ some good hockey prior to the shutdown… and experience, it’s a thing… think we can do it, but it won’t be a cakewalk.

    Finally getting around to some Oilers reruns in the 42+ games I’ve recorded.Started watching the 1987 Oilers-Flyers series this morning.Without bias, anyone want to take a guess if this is a set play from Messier?
    https://m.facebook.com/watch/?v=1333482936850789&_rdr

    Bring on the hockey… Go Oilers!

    It was a planned play but not a set play in the sense that he did it frequently. Gretzky used to use the end-wall pass to Kurri occasionally. Messier & Anderson had a couple of their own set plays, usually involving speed, criss crosses, & drop passes. A favourite was going hard behind the net & dropping a pass out the short side for the tap-in.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Drai will probably be forever underrated because of Connor. It’s a shame.There’s maybe a handful of players who can take over a game like Drai. His ability to make a pass through a bunch of opposition sticks is a thing of beauty.

    Probably although he took some major steps when Connor was out this year and he led the team to some important victories by being his beastly self – started to get more league wide recognition.

  55. Durag says:

    godot10,

    Fair point. It will create a few jobs and I hadn’t considered that.

  56. Harpers Hair says:

    Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) Tweeted:
    The @Canucks are considering moving its training camp to the United States because of Canada’s 14-day mandatory quarantine requirement.

    https://t.co/uE88K8ALTG

  57. jtblack says:

    godot10: People work in those bubble hotels and restaurants.And pay taxes.Many OEG part-timers (security, etc) will get employment.Edmonton has a hotel room tax.Free adverstising of Edmonton to the world when it is not a frozen wasteland.

    If successful, it helps make Edmonton a viable candidate for the next World Cup of Hockey.

    These are some goods. I am all for anything that helps people get back to work and earn some $$$.

  58. Darth Tu says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) Tweeted:
    The @Canucks are considering moving its training camp to the United States because of Canada’s 14-day mandatory quarantine requirement.

    https://t.co/uE88K8ALTG

    If this is true, then I guess LT’s wife is heading for the win.

  59. Material Elvis says:

    I wonder if the NHL has considered the potential ice conditions in some of the southern cities like Vegas. There were multiple reports of shitty ice conditions in 2018 when Vegas played in the Cup final. How do they think that ice will hold up when it is getting used multiple times per day for two months in 40 Celsius weather? Even in Edmonton, the ice plants struggle to keep the ice hard in the middle of summer, so I can’t see it working very well in a place like Vegas.

  60. Georges says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: Your stats appear to be at odds with the point you made immediately prior.

    We all see Connor get fouled with three or four (or more) times per game with no calls. Like the doughty elbow or the Lindholm elbow. No supplemental discipline from DoPeS either.

    I was going to kneejerk respond with “offensive talent TENDS to draw more penalties” but you made me realize that I didn’t know if that was true. I was just assuming. I hadn’t tested the assumption..

    It turns out I was wrong, at least at the team level. It seems there isn’t really a relationship between a team’s offense and the rate at which draws penalties.

    Here’s the correlation between team GF/GP and PP Opps/GP for the past few seasons:

    Season, Correlation

    15-16, .01
    16-17, -.01
    17-18, .33
    18-19, .36
    19-20, .40

    It seems like the relationship is weak but improving. But GF/GP includes PP goals, which will naturally be affected by PP opportunities. When I subtracted the PPG/GP from GF/GP and reran the correlations, I got:

    Season, Correlation

    15-16, -.12
    16-17, -.16
    17-18, .09
    18-19, .18
    19-20, .26

    So, really, at a team level, more offensive talent (as measured by offensive output, i.e., GF/GP) doesn’t translate to more PP opportunities.

    Go figure.

    I’m still not sure whether this statement has more relevance at the player level. Your point about CMD is a good one here.

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=penalties&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20192020&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=penaltiesDrawn&page=0&pageSize=50

    Most of the leaders on total penalties drawn are good offensive players. But there are other good offensive players missing from the top. Instead, we’re seeing some, what I would call, agitators… or Marchand/Tkachuk types who give you the best of both worlds.

    My thought process is good offensive players get more ice time and more of a chance to draw penalties. And they’re also more skilled, so more likely to force opponents to bend the rules more often to try to contain them.

    But, I guess the gap in the reasoning, as you’ve pointed out, is the refs still have to call it.

    CMD’s so fast and so skilled that opponents ditch the rules and gamble (correctly) that the refs can’t call everything. And CMD really doesn’t draw penalties at an exceptional rate despite exceptional skill.

    There are guys with higher rates for penalties drawn per 60 who aren’t anywhere near CMD, talent wise. Again, these tend to be high event agitators. Players who are mixing it up and constantly on the ref’s radar, drawing penalties and also taking penalties. Our agitator is Kassian, but he’s in the ref’s bad books, takes more than draws.

    It’s interesting. I’ll look into this a bit more when I have a chance.

    Nice catch.

  61. godot10 says:

    Material Elvis:
    I wonder if the NHL has considered the potential ice conditions in some of the southern cities like Vegas.There were multiple reports of shitty ice conditions in 2018 when Vegas played in the Cup final.How do they think that ice will hold up when it is getting used multiple times per day for two months in 40 Celsius weather?Even in Edmonton, the ice plants struggle to keep the ice hard in the middle of summer, so I can’t see it working very well in a place like Vegas.

    With nobody in the stands in Edmonton for the games during the summer, it will not be hard to keep the ice in top shape at Rogers Place.

  62. Georges says:

    Yeah, winning teams don’t draw penalties at a higher rate either.

    Here’s the correlation between PP Opps/GP and Points%:

    Season, Corr

    15-16, -.11
    16-17, -.08
    17-18, .23
    18-19, .30
    19-20, .23

    The refs don’t reward/punish good/bad teams or vice versa.

  63. Gerta Rauss says:

    re: Neal/Lucic 3rd round pick and compensation

    An arbiter has to consider both sides of an argument- Calgary’s argument will be the original deal was based on a regular season consisting of 82 games to determine the outcome of the agreement

    Gary has to acknowledge this argument

    The Oilers should get to keep their own pick – the conditions of the deal were not met, that much is black and white

    Some form of compensation for Calgary seems reasonable

    A compensatory pick based on unforeseen circumstances is not without recent precedent- the Rangers drafted Alexei Cherepanov in 2007 and he died before the Rangers could sign him

    The Rangers were awarded a 2nd round pick in the 2009 draft as compensation

  64. OilClog says:

    97 and 29 come out of fat camp and slaughter the Hawks.

  65. hunter1909 says:

    MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT

    Hunter1909’s 2020 NHL Playoff Death March™ is coming!!

    The NHL has just announced the playoff format. Details are being worked out with the final touches being made to the DeathMarch™ website. The contest should be starting within the next 72 hours.

    DO NOT make predictions before the Official Start™ of the contest, otherwise they will be deemed null and void.

    Thank you for your cooperation

  66. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) Tweeted:
    The @Canucks are considering moving its training camp to the United States because of Canada’s 14-day mandatory quarantine requirement.

    https://t.co/uE88K8ALTG

    No one outside B.C. much cares what they do.

    Why you insist on harping on endlessly about that 50 year palooka team is starting to get chronic. In case you haven’t noticed, this is an Oilers blog and we tend to despise the weak assed Canucks and none of us cared when the refs handed the cup to Boston as all of us were cheering for Boston, anyone aside from the biggest bunch of diving creeps I’ve ever had the misfortune of watching play NHL hockey.

    When you talk about radio you make sense. So there’s that lol

  67. N64 says:

    Darth Tu: If this is true, then I guess LT’s wife is heading for the win.

    Oil and Dys SHOULD both be looking at that IF the West conference plays in the U.S.

    Likewise all teams will be to free to practice inside any Canadian host site.

    Mrs. LT is playing with house money. Never bet against the house.

  68. Reja says:

    Darth Tu: If this is true, then I guess LT’s wife is heading for the win.

    Alright I’ll say it. The wife’s will decide where the hub city’s shall be and Edmonton doesn’t even make the long list.

  69. Material Elvis says:

    godot10,

    Hopefully. I played on the community arena ice at least ten times last summer. It was passable but not great; noticeably softer than mid-winter conditions. I do agree that Roger’s Place ice would be a helluva lot better than playing on T-Mobile ice in August.

  70. N64 says:

    Gerta Rauss: Gary has to acknowledge this argument

    No he does not.

    When the 2nd round comp rule was thrown out every team that had lost a pick lined up to argue.

    Gary told them they made the stupid rule, not him.

  71. defmn says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    re: Neal/Lucic 3rd round pick and compensation

    An arbiter has to consider both sides of an argument- Calgary’s argument will be the original deal was based on a regular season consisting of 82 games to determine the outcome of the agreement

    Gary has to acknowledge this argument

    The Oilers should get to keep their own pick – the conditions of the deal were not met, that much is black and white

    Some form of compensation for Calgary seems reasonable

    A compensatory pick based on unforeseen circumstances is not without recent precedent- the Rangers drafted Alexei Cherepanov in 2007 and he died before the Rangers could sign him

    The Rangers were awarded a 2nd round pick in the 2009 draft as compensation

    Which is why you should never go to arbitration when you think you are right. As I stated earlier there are contracts signed in the NHL that cover the possibility of the league not completing all 82 games. That Treliving neglected to include that clause in this contract is on him.

  72. Reja says:

    hunter1909: No one outside B.C. much cares what they do.

    Why you insist on harping on endlessly about that 50 year palooka team is starting to get chronic. In case you haven’t noticed, this is an Oilers blog and we tend to despise the weak assed Canucks and none of us cared when the refs handed the cup to Boston as all of us were cheering for Boston, anyone aside from the biggest bunch of diving creeps I’ve ever had the misfortune of watching play NHL hockey.

    When you talk about radio you make sense. So there’s that lol

    But what about Harold Snepsts and King Richard.

  73. N64 says:

    hunter1909: Why you insist on harping on endlessly about that 50 year palooka team is starting to get chronic.

    Actually it’s all good that he harpooned that team. He’s stuck with them now. No more playing the field now or the Bogeyman Rasputin will come for him.

  74. JimmyV1965 says:

    N64: The rest of the GMs deserve not to have that pick double up. PA and CBA are not involved. BOG will not get involved. Gary does not like to invent problems to wade into. Expecting the literal reading. Pick to Edmonton.

    I think you’re way way overestimating how many GMs care if another team gets an extra pick at the end of the third round. If we were not one of the teams involved, my give-a-shit meter wouldn’t register a blip. This happens in other sports. It’s not new.

  75. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer: Because the criteria were not met.Why doesnt every team that hired rentals deserve to get a pick back.They clearly were buyers under different circumstances.
    Should Kassians contract be voided because he was given a contract extension under very different circumstances that if he were to be re-signed now his contract would be significantly lower.
    Why didnt we get a draft pick back when compensation draft pick for fired executives rule was dropped.
    Things change

    Sorry, but this is a ridiculous take.

  76. OilClog says:

    N64: Actually it’s all good that he harpooned that team. He’s stuck with them now. No more playing the field now or the Bogeyman Rasputin will come for him.

    Thy goal posts never stay in one location long, they may be raised, nurtured, and turned into real pos goal posts in Canuck land but once they’ve ventured over to the mainland on the ferry.. No community is safe really, these lil arrogant sheltered bastard goal posts just storm on in flinging their shit everywhere until a new aroma be it Wild or Coyote hits the wind and on the road again, goal posts have no home, just abused po boxes.

  77. Darth Tu says:

    N64: Actually it’s all good that he harpooned that team. He’s stuck with them now. No more playing the field now or the Bogeyman Rasputin will come for him.

    All hail the Raff-bot. He is the messiah.

  78. N64 says:

    JimmyV1965: I think you’re way way overestimating how many GMs care if another team gets an extra pick at the end of the third round. If we were not one of the teams involved, my give-a-shit meter wouldn’t register a blip. This happens in other sports. It’s not new.

    One pick, maybe not. But how many teams would be asking for extra picks for their conditional deals? What about conditional swapped picks? This does not seem like the kind of thing that Gary would wade into or that the GMs will push him to.

  79. Reja says:

    Bruce McCurdy: It wss a planned play but not a set play in the sense that he did it frequently. Gretzky used to use the end-wall pass to Kurri occasionally. Messier & A derson had s couple of their own set plays, usually involving speed, criss crosses, & drop passes. A favourite was going hard behind the net & dropping a pass out the short side for the tap-in.

    Anderson and Messier had that drop pass from behind the net mastered like no other, even to this day. Used to love when Kent Nilsson,Larry Hagman, Ken Linesman, Craig Simpson or who ever else was on their line would score on the easy tap in goal while the goalie was wondering what the hell happened.

  80. JimmyV1965 says:

    N64: The comp pick story is exactly why I’ve been telling OP (for months, lol) that Gary will not wade into this

    Gary was not keen on the comp rule for fired mgmt. When the BOG finally killed it Gary was vocal that he did not want any retroactive fixes. In essence they made the mess and he was not going to put any band-aids on the result.

    The story at the time was Bettman strongly opposed the compensation rule when it was agreed to by the board of governors. That’s why he dug his heels after they scrapped it. It had nothing to do with fairness. He was saying I told you so, now live with the consequences.

  81. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Bettman just has to make a decision based on contractual language, and precedent.The draft choice is a single thing, like a baby.It cannot be cut in half.

    Why can they do it in the MLB? This will be my last response to this question because I think people are being unreasonable. Of course, I assume everyone would be equally passionate if the Oilers were in the same boat as Calgary.

  82. N64 says:

    JimmyV1965: The story at the time was Bettman strongly opposed the compensation rule when it was agreed to by the board of governors. That’s why he dug his heels after they scrapped it. It had nothing to do with fairness. He was saying I told you so, now live with the consequences.

    Agreed. My larger point is that he does not have to listen to fairness arguments related to events outside the league’s control.

    If they add comp picks it will be because of consensus. In other words Flames need to get the ears of other GM not Gary’s.

    Another team will ask what about their conditional trade of picks. And around there I suspect the league will leave things at not vested.

    Don’t care myself if they hand out extra picks. Just not expecting it. Not even expecting these to go to any formal arb.

  83. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georges,

    I’ve always had that hunch, Kessler and Getzlaf are other odious examples of guys who get away with murder and impede the skill and flow of the game.

    Thanks for putting in the time to investigate the correlation. Stats and maths aren’t my strong suit, and I find your posts informative.

  84. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georges,

    Interesting. That kind of puts a damper on the notion that veteran teams get the calls.

  85. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Reja: Anderson and Messier had that drop pass from behind the net mastered like no other, even to this day. Used to love when Kent Nilsson,Larry Hagman, Ken Linesman, Craig Simpson or who ever else was on their line would score on the easy tap in goal while the goalie was wondering what the hell happened.

    Matti “Larry” Hagman? Yeah,

    Most often 9 & 11 worked that play with each other. One would drive wide, the other would follow into the lane, and hey! presto.

  86. Bruce McCurdy says:

    JimmyV1965: Why can they do it in the MLB? This will be my last response to this question because I think people are being unreasonable. Of course, I assume everyone would be equally passionate if the Oilers were in the same boat as Calgary.

    Another way to cut the baby in half would be to declare the 3rd round pick a 5th round pick.

  87. Justthestatsman says:

    Bruce McCurdy: It was a planned play but not a set play in the sense that he did it frequently. Gretzky used to use the end-wall pass to Kurri occasionally. Messier & Anderson had a couple of their own set plays, usually involving speed, criss crosses, & drop passes. A favourite was going hard behind the net & dropping a pass out the short side for the tap-in.

    I loved that play. Could never believe how often they pulled it off. They were always going so fast the goalie would have to commit to the wraparound and ended up looking silly every time.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    Yotes don’t have a great roster but if Kuemper gets hot.

    I think the Oilers young legs get back in shape more quickly than the Hawks, which could make a difference. Leon and Connor not playing 30 minutes per night for the last two months gives them extra gas, whereas for guys like Keith and Toews, I’m not sure if they get up to speed.

    However, I have worries about 5v5 scoring and goaltending. Edge goes to the Hawks both ways there.

    If the Hawks had Lehner still, I might actually pick them.

    Oilers in 4.

    The Oilers being reliant on their PP (and special teams in general) is a bit concerning, however, the deadline acquisitions were essentially made to improve that 5 on 5 play – to provide some more scoring depth.

    Hopefully those acquisitions pay dividends.

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Mark Edwards (founder of HockeyProspect.com) was just on Gregor’s show, said two things that caught my ear:

    1) Teams can get a “difference maker at the NHL level” into the mid-2nd round, deeper than most years

    2) 10-20 will be much higher end players than most years this year

    2 nice specific examples of why this draft is “deep”

    In the same piece that Staples lauded LT’s draft list record, he also mention Mark Edwards and Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News as the only 3 “amateur” draft prognosticators to have quality draft records.

  90. Bruce McCurdy says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Georges,

    I’ve always had that hunch, Kessler and Getzlaf are other odious examples of guys who get away with murder and impede the skill and flow of the game.

    Thanks for putting in the time to investigate the correlation. Stats and maths aren’t my strong suit, and I find your posts informative.

    Dustin Brown is #1 on this particular villain list with a bullet. Led the league in penalties drawn year after year with his nefarious diving. The Greg Louganis of hockey.

    One caveat: it is often tricky to disentangle Penalties Drawn into powerplay-causing penalties vs. coincidental penalties. I find not all sites are consistent on this front. I for one couldn’t give a hoot about coincidentals.

    Penalty differentials are sometimes useful, and they tend to show the DB’s, Tkachuks, & Marchands of the world break even or better despite all the dirty shit they do.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georges:
    You have Neal and Russell outside the starting lineup. You’ve also picked Koskinen to start in goal.

    I believe both Neal and Russell played when healthy.

    And I think it would also be out of character for Tippett to start Koskinen over Smith.

    We’ll see.

    Also, how the heck did Kubalik get to 46 points playing on CHI’s 3rd line?

    I would prefer Jones to start over Rusty – I think he outplayed Rusty, in the aggregate and his skating and puck moving ability gives the team more balance and skill.

    I think Coach T will play his veteran, Rusty.

    —————-

    I would prefer to start Koskinen – he was better than Smith over the season in aggregate and has also started off both seasons hot – this is essentially the start of a new season.

    I think Coach T will start his veteran, Smith.

  92. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Natural Stat Trick is limited to 3-year chunks, so here are their first 3 years of data. (You may need to click twice on the Penalties Drawn column)

    Penalties Drawn, 2007-10
    =======
    1. Dustin Brown 150
    2. Daniel Carcillo 120
    3. Evgeni Malkin 116
    4. Alexandre Burrows 108
    5. Scott Hartnell 94
    6a. Alex Ovechkin 91
    6b. Sidney Crosby 91
    6c. Ryan Kesler 91
    6d. Sean Avery 91
    6e. Patrick Kaleta 91

    I count 6 scumbags on that list, with Hartnell Down on the bubble. But 1, 2, 4, 6c, 6d, & 6e were all among the most hated players in the game. I guess it worked, eh.

    Note how Brown is at 50 per year, next “best” at 40. Meanwhile he took just 39 penalties in the 3 years combined despite some notoriously dirty hits & cheap shots. (Ladi Smid says hi)

    DB was a master of the black art.

  93. N64 says:

    Rishaug indicated he’d reached out this morning for clarification. Here’s what he got back this afternoon:

    https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1265736129489207296

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    oilersfan:
    If the NHL’s actual priority is player safety they would pick Edmonton and Vancouver. None of the American cities listed come close in terms of current cases.

    I am all for the league/teams getting all the money they can but don’t see any advantage to playing in Vegas where it will be 45 Celsius many days. What are the players supposed to do when they’re not playing? They can’t go outside, it’s unbearable. The weather in Edmonton and Vancouver is excellent in the summer. I don’t get at all why they would have one let alone both cities be in the USA

    If its “done right”, then the cases in the cities shouldn’t really matter because all players, staff, personnel, etc. will be in a “quarantine bubble” together where they aren’t allowed out and noone is allowed in (without strict testing protocols being adhered to).

    If its done right, with noone allowed in, there should be no real risk to contract even if the virus is running rampant outside the bubble.

    Not really being able to go outside in the unbearable heat shouldn’t be much of an issue given the intent is to be in a quarantine bubble – they won’t be allowed to “roam around town”.

    We know the bubbles will have some sort of “entertainment” for the players (and others in the bubble) and, surely that can be set up inside in Vegas for example.

  95. leadfarmer says:

    JimmyV1965: Sorry, but this is a ridiculous take.

    There were strict criteria to the conditions and they were not met and there was a good chance they weren’t going to be met.
    If the season was cancelled were you planning on paying Smith’s performance bonuses for getting us to conference finals too.

  96. Darth Tu says:

    leadfarmer: There were strict criteria to the conditions and they were not met and there was a good chance they weren’t going to be met.
    If the season was cancelled were you planning on paying Smith’s performance bonuses for getting us to conference finals too.

    Wasn’t Neal still injured when play was called? When was he officially cleared to play again? If that date is post when the regular season ends, argument over. I remember their being discussion here regarding whether he’d be on IR till the end of the season due to the injury and maybe wouldn’t get a chance at another goal.

    Sure we can say Calgary should maybe get a MLB style draft pick in the interests of “fairness”, but either way Edmonton shouldn’t be losing their 3rd. If Neal was still injured, then the point is moot – he couldn’t have played or scored the goals.

    Then from the other side, Lucic had started scoring. If we’re going down the hypothetical road maybe Lucic scores enough goals in the run in as well? Unlikely, but still possible.

  97. N64 says:

    leadfarmer: There were strict criteria to the conditions and they were not met and there was a good chance they weren’t going to be met.
    If the season was cancelled were you planning on paying Smith’s performance bonuses for getting us to conference finals too.

    Should be very clear that there is no process for trade deals other than the deal as written is the deal. Anything beyond what is written is a new executive and/or BOG decision.

    Whereas contract bonuses are part of the cap and the PA has recourse to a process. For awards based on the regular season there is I think precedent.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Gregor:

    “Seabrook had three surgeries, so I don’t expect he will be ready. However, De Haan who had shoulder surgery in December could be back. And after trading Gustafsson their blueline is pretty young outside of Keith, Murphy and Maatta.” @BoyleNBCS on Blackhawks blueline

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Rishaug:

    Dr. Hinshaw says they could possibly consider 2 teams and staff as a single cohort unit, which would allow them to play games against one another. Clarifies they are not trying to circumvent the 14 day quarantine period, but are open to finding ways to do it & still allow play.

  100. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    As per Rishaug:

    Dr. Hinshaw says they could possibly consider 2 teams and staff as a single cohort unit, which would allow them to play games against one another.Clarifies they are not trying to circumvent the 14 day quarantine period, but are open to finding ways to do it & still allow play.

    Good to hear.

    There is absolutely no true reason many pro sports can’t begin.

    The risk is rapid spread which overwhelms resources, and for seniors and those with certain health issues.

    None of these apply here.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to all this talk about pro rating and the condition not vesting and other circumstances, its it not obvious that there is a massive difference between a condition not vesting because a player was injured and a condition not vesting because the season was, for the first time ever, ended in the middle because of a world wide medical and health emergency?

    I’m not saying that should pro rate Neal’s and Lucic’s stats and just go with that but to equate loss of games played due to injury with loss of games played due to pandemic is widely dishonest to me.

  102. Ribs says:

    How about they just push the Neal/Lucic conditions to next season? I like our odds…

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) Tweeted:
    The @Canucks are considering moving its training camp to the United States because of Canada’s 14-day mandatory quarantine requirement.

    https://t.co/uE88K8ALTG

    but what if they get assigned to a Canadian hub city for phase 4 when training camp is over and the games start?

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Material Elvis:
    I wonder if the NHL has considered the potential ice conditions in some of the southern cities like Vegas.There were multiple reports of shitty ice conditions in 2018 when Vegas played in the Cup final.How do they think that ice will hold up when it is getting used multiple times per day for two months in 40 Celsius weather?Even in Edmonton, the ice plants struggle to keep the ice hard in the middle of summer, so I can’t see it working very well in a place like Vegas.

    This has been mentioned daily in this blog and I’m sure the NHL has indeed thought about it.

    Of course, not having 20,000 fans in the arena helps that ability to manage conditions.

    Also, if any place in North America knows how to keep indoor areas cool in the summer, Vegas is it…

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    re: Neal/Lucic 3rd round pick and compensation

    An arbiter has to consider both sides of an argument- Calgary’s argument will be the original deal was based on a regular season consisting of 82 games to determine the outcome of the agreement

    Gary has to acknowledge this argument

    The Oilers should get to keep their own pick – the conditions of the deal were not met, that much is black and white

    Some form of compensation for Calgary seems reasonable

    A compensatory pick based on unforeseen circumstances is not without recent precedent- the Rangers drafted Alexei Cherepanov in 2007 and he died before the Rangers could sign him

    The Rangers were awarded a 2nd round pick in the 2009 draft as compensation

    I agree with the premise at the beginning of this post.

    External factors cancelling part of the regular season leading to the condition not vesting (or attributing to the condition not vesting) cannot be ignored and I’m highly confident that if the circumstances were reversed, many would have diffeing views.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: Which is why you should never go to arbitration when you think you are right. As I stated earlier there are contracts signed in the NHL that cover the possibility of the league not completing all 82 games. That Treliving neglected to include that clause in this contract is on him.

    Can you provide an example of this type of contract?

  107. Darth Tu says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    With respect to all this talk about pro rating and the condition not vesting and other circumstances, its it not obvious that there is a massive difference between a condition not vesting because a player was injured and a condition not vesting because the season was, for the first time ever, ended in the middle because of a world wide medical and health emergency?

    I’m not saying that should pro rate Neal’s and Lucic’s stats and just go with that but to equate loss of games played due to injury with loss of games played due to pandemic is widely dishonest to me.

    I agree injury is not the same as a season stoppage. I was making the point about Neal’s injury above as more of a “we don’t know what would happen” statement. It wasn’t entirely clear he was coming back before the playoffs – at least as I remember it, I could be wrong.

    Point stands though, Edmonton shouldn’t lose the 3rd round pick. If Calgary are meant to get the compensatory pick in the 4th, 5th, 7th or whatever round then fair enough. I’m not going to lump myself into the deny them completely camp.

  108. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    With respect to all this talk about pro rating and the condition not vesting and other circumstances, its it not obvious that there is a massive difference between a condition not vesting because a player was injured and a condition not vesting because the season was, for the first time ever, ended in the middle because of a world wide medical and health emergency?

    I’m not saying that should pro rate Neal’s and Lucic’s stats and just go with that but to equate loss of games played due to injury with loss of games played due to pandemic is widely dishonest to me.

    Is there??
    As a lawyer are you saying is there??
    Because clearly games cancelled due to pandemic should be different than games cancelled due to a self induced issue like a trade dispute and the teams shouldn’t owe tv networks anything.

    Also Neal didn’t make 21 goals predominantly because of injury and not the pandemic although the pandemic put the nail in the coffin. Neal has 0goals in last 10 games

  109. Reja says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Matti “Larry” Hagman? Yeah,

    Most often 9 & 11 worked that play with each other. One would drive wide, the other would follow into the lane, and hey! presto.

    Matti put up 20 goals in 1980 and 21 in 1981 he was a good fit for Anderson and Messier. March 21 1980 JR-Ewing ( Larry Hagman ) was shot in the final episode of year 3 which started the catch phase Who Shot JR globally, I even think Vegas had odds on the correct suspect. It wasn’t till the following 4th episode of year 4 mostly due to a contract dispute that Hagman had with the network before they revealed that it was his mistress Kristen Shepard (Mary Crosby) who was guilty of the shooting. 83 million out of 226 million viewers watched the episode. Anytime I here Hagman or Dallas I instantly think of the prick JR Ewing that you had to love to hate.

  110. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: but what if they get assigned to a Canadian hub city for phase 4 when training camp is over and the games start?

    They said looking at. Not travelling anywhere before Gary announces sites.

  111. Harpers Hair says:

    N64: Actually it’s all good that he harpooned that team. He’s stuck with them now. No more playing the field now or the Bogeyman Rasputin will come for him.

    Not sure where this is coming from.

    I predicted the Canucks would miss the playoffs.

  112. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Can you provide an example of this type of contract?

    It was my first post on the subject today so this is just me copying and pasting it.

    ————————————-

    If the rumour mill is correct the league has found itself in the position of accommodating various TV networks because clever lawyers inserted clauses covering situations that might interfere with the full completion of the season.

    I would argue on behalf of the Oilers that given that precedent in league business affairs any contract between teams which failed to specifically identify such a possibility has abrogated their right to seek redress since such a clause was known to exist and be in use.

  113. jtblack says:

    defmn: It was my first post on the subject today so this is just me copying and pasting it.

    ————————————-

    If the rumour mill is correct the league has found itself in the position of accommodating various TV networks because clever lawyers inserted clauses covering situations that might interfere with the full completion of the season.

    I would argue on behalf of the Oilers that given that precedent in league business affairs any contract between teams which failed to specifically identify such a possibility has abrogated their right to seek redress since such a clause was known to exist and be in use.

    have to give this answer a Fail. a specific contract?

  114. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Not sure where this is coming from.

    I predicted the Canucks would miss the playoffs.

    Why would they give up their first if they aren’t gunning for the playoffs?

  115. N64 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Good to hear.

    There is absolutely no true reason many pro sports can’t begin.

    The risk is rapid spread which overwhelms resources, and for seniors and those with certain health issues.

    None of these apply here.

    Totally fine with locking down NHL players and Toronto media here or elsewhere while we enjoy our Edmonton summer. We have less than a case a day in Edmonton and really like that.

    Before covid spread overwhelms hospitals it will overwhelm consumer confidence to patronize businesses other than grocery stores. Like it did in March. We never had stay at home orders here, but we did have massive reductions in economic activity BEFORE public health orders.

    AB and BC need international tourism, large scale events or anything else that interrupts low disease levels and returning day to day business and consumer confidence like we need holes in our heads. Sorry any Tier 1 fans on the blog, but enjoy the back of the bus for a while and invest any money you save in pharma shares.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Mark Edwards (founder of HockeyProspect.com) was just on Gregor’s show, said two things that caught my ear:

    1) Teams can get a “difference maker at the NHL level” into the mid-2nd round, deeper than most years

    2) 10-20 will be much higher end players than most years this year

    2 nice specific examples of why this draft is “deep”

    In the same piece that Staples lauded LT’s draft list record, he also mention Mark Edwards and Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News as the only 3 “amateur” draft prognosticators to have quality draft records.

    Yes, point 2 is essentially what I’ve been reading for a while now – in various different places (including Staples at CoH – based on PPG stats), the first round is very deep with high producing forwards – its a perfect draft for the Oilers to pick where they are scheduled (20th).

    Grabbing a 2nd round pick would be great if the cost is reasonable.

    We know for certainty that Holland wants to add picks – he’s said it – he says he’s owes it to the scouts!

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Dustin Brown is #1 on this particular villain list with a bullet. Led the league in penalties drawn year after year with his nefarious diving. The Greg Louganis of hockey.

    One caveat: it is often tricky to disentangle Penalties Drawn into powerplay-causing penalties vs. coincidental penalties. I find not all sites are consistent on this front. I for one couldn’t give a hoot about coincidentals.

    Penalty differentials are sometimes useful, and they tend to show the DB’s, Tkachuks, & Marchands of the world break even or better despite all the dirty shit they do.

    I recall you bringing up Brown’s “ability” to draw penalties year after year when I wondered if drawing penalties was a repeatable skill for the non-elite (vis-a-vis Gaetan Haas).

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darth Tu:

    Neal had returned to the lineup.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Is there??
    As a lawyer are you saying is there??
    Because clearly games cancelled due to pandemic should be different than games cancelled due to a self induced issue like a trade dispute and the teams shouldn’t owe tv networks anything.

    Also Neal didn’t make 21 goals predominantly because of injury and not the pandemic although the pandemic put the nail in the coffin.Neal has 0goals in last 10 games

    I’m saying it as a reasonable person – feel free to keep my profession out of conversation.

    Yes, a season not finishing because the league shut down due to pandemic is different that a player refusing to play due to trade demands or missing games because of injury – I’m not sure how an unbiased person does not see this.

  120. Georges says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Georges,

    Interesting. That kind of puts a damper on the notion that veteran teams get the calls.

    Yeah, I was dead wrong.

    Offensive talent doesn’t draw more penalties.

    The relationship between Pts/GP and PenaltiesDrawnPer60 is essentially 0 for the past 5 seasons.

    Same for Pts/GP vs. NetPenaltiesPer60.

    I even checked TOI/GP for defensemen, to see if refs favor the big minutes defensemen in any way.

    Nope.

    Overall, the refs don’t favor better players when making calls. They’re basically impartial. Which is actually reassuring when you think about it.

    Huh. You learn something new every day, I guess.

    Easiest way to see this is here:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?aggregate=0&report=penalties&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20192020&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points&page=0&pageSize=100

    I sorted the report in descending order by points. Scan down the NetPenaltiesPer60 column. If the refs really favored the better players, you should see consistently positive numbers, because these players would be consistently drawing more penalties than they’re taking. You see some of that at the very top end but it peters out fast. And then it’s just a jumble.

    Of course, we can debate individual cases as much as ever. No harm in that.

  121. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m saying it as a reasonable person – feel free to keep my profession out of conversation.

    Yes, a season not finishing because the league shut down due to pandemic is different that a player refusing to play due to trade demands or missing games because of injury – I’m not sure how an unbiased person does not see this.

    Given how you are a stickler for the minutiae normally I’m just surprised

  122. defmn says:

    jtblack: have to give this answer a Fail. a specific contract?

    I have no idea what this means. The post says “If the rumour mill is correct”.

    There have been days and days of speculation here that the reason Montreal and Chicago are in the playoff round is because of regional contracts that needed to be fulfilled in order to avoid a penalty for failing to finish the season. I assumed everybody could make that jump.

  123. Glovjuice says:

    jtblack: who says you can’t cut babies in half?

    </blockqu
    Exactly, they cut Siamese twins in half.

  124. Glovjuice says:

    Oh, and, plus/minus is the only stat that basically accounts for every variable (salary, generally; most common level of competition; line mates etc). It’s the long lost best stat for relative comparisons of players.

  125. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georges,

    I suppose this data set lends itself to the notion that drawing penalties is in and of itself a skill.

    But I wonder why some players are viewed in one way (IE Evander Kane, Perron, Marchand, Dustin Brown, Turtle) and others are viewed in a different light (IE Crosby, Malkin, Ovi).

    For instance, it’s no secret that players of the first cohort I listed play with an edge but the other three aren’t afraid to muck it up either. Crosby has had some vicious moments worthy of suspension that didn’t even get penalized. Mark Methot’s thumb comes to mind, or when he chopped a guy between the legs from behind.

    Maybe it’s success, but Perron, Marchand and Brown have all won Cups.

    Intent and frequency of borderline plays, perhaps?

  126. leadfarmer says:

    So the team most likely to be upset during the play-in is the Vancouver Canucks.

    Do we know if Kaprizov is allowed to come over and play yet.

  127. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja: Why would they give up their first if they aren’t gunning for the playoffs?

    Of course they were gunning for the playoffs and JT Miller is worth more than a middling first round pick.

    Of course this has ZERO to do with how I expected the standings to end up.

  128. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair: Not sure where this is coming from.

    Try which team you posted on incessantly in October, November, December, January, February and March. We can get the odds anywhere. This year what we got from your was Dys fandom and/or Dys trolldom. You’re not Switzerland around here anymore. You’ve been marked as all in for months so enjoy the upside or downside.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    So the team most likely to be upset during the play-in is the Vancouver Canucks.

    Do we know if Kaprizov is allowed to come over and play yet.

    Taking away the KHL season being cancelled, his KHL contract expired at the end of April so they could sign him now. It would be a 2-year ELC max I think due to his age and I’m not sure if they want to burn year 1 by having him play…..

  130. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: We know the bubbles will have some sort of “entertainment” for the players (and others in the bubble) and, surely that can be set up inside in Vegas for example.

    Kind of like when Clarence Boddicker busts in on Bob Morton from Omni Consumer Products? And Morton’s entertaining guests?

  131. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not saying that should pro rate Neal’s and Lucic’s stats and just go with that but to equate loss of games played due to injury with loss of games played due to pandemic is widely dishonest to me.

    I can tell you have never conducted business. Not honest to goodness manufacturing/distribution business, because if you had, you would know there are people out there who happily will cancel contracts based on any bloody technical excuse and there’s really not a lot you can do about it.

    PS: With the probable upcoming massive downturn in the world’s economy, you will be seeing this sort of thing a lot more in the immediate future as businesses desperately try to stay afloat, former business partners/associates be damned.

  132. Reja says:

    hunter1909: I can tell you have never conducted business. Not honest to goodness manufacturing/distribution business, because if you had, you would know there are people out there who happily will cancel contracts based on any bloody technical excuse and there’s really not a lot you can do about it.

    PS: with the probable upcoming massive downturn in the world’s economy, you will be seeing this sort of thing a lot more in the immediate future as businesses desperately try to stay afloat, business partners/associates be damned.

    Maybe some crafty lawyers through in Pandemic coverage in the fine fine print something like lucky Larry in New York.

  133. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m saying it as a reasonable person – feel free to keep my profession out of conversation.

    You constantly tell the world(Lowetide blog) that you’re a lawyer. Therefore, you have no business telling others to stop talking about something that you yourself actively promote.

  134. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Taking away the KHL season being cancelled, his KHL contract expired at the end of April so they could sign him now.It would be a 2-year ELC max I think due to his age and I’m not sure if they want to burn year 1 by having him play…..

    Teams are not allowed as of right now to sign for the current season

  135. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Of course they were gunning for the playoffs and JT Miller is worth more than a middling first round pick.

    Of course this has ZERO to do with how I expected the standings to end up.

    Oilers got screwed it could have easily been the top 2 teams in each division getting the bye. Any team can win in the best of five. I think the biggest factor will be no fans and how it will effect the energy players, there’s a lot of players that feed off the crowd, it’s going to take the first round to get used to the no crowd.

  136. leadfarmer says:

    Wow the Wild are getting screwed. Not only they can’t sign Kaprizov for this year but since the season will likely start late he is not going to come over for next season either.

  137. Victoria Oil says:

    With the regular season over, it”s interesting that RNH had a career best points per game, but still didn’t reach 50 points. Maybe next year.

  138. godot10 says:

    Reja: Oilers got screwed it could have easily been the top 2 teams in each division getting the bye. Any team can win in the best of five. I think the biggest factor will be no fans and how it will effect the energy players, there’s a lot of players that feed offthe crowd, it’s going to take the first round to get used to the no crowd.

    Playing in an actual playoff series of best of five is preferable to being in the round robin, if one has a pair of aces in the hole.

    A playoff series focuses the mind faster.

  139. Reja says:

    godot10: Playing in an actual playoff series of best of five is preferable to being in the round robin, if one has a pair of aces in the hole.

    A playoff series focuses the mind faster.

    I agree but if Crawford steals a game or two we’re talking draft again.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Playing in an actual playoff series of best of five is preferable to being in the round robin, if one has a pair of aces in the hole.

    A playoff series focuses the mind faster.

    Not if the opposing goalie gets hot….

  141. Gerta Rauss says:

    Reja: I agree but if Crawford steals a game or two we’re talking draft again.

    ..and a top 15 pick..!!

    /justkidding

  142. Harpers Hair says:

    N64: Try which team you posted on incessantly in October, November, December, January, February and March. We can get the odds anywhere. This year what we got from your was Dys fandom and/or Dys trolldom. You’re not Switzerland around here anymore. You’ve been marked as all in for months so enjoy the upside or downside.

    Unfortunately, at this time, I am unable to respond to drive by shootings.

  143. Georges says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Georges,

    I suppose this data set lends itself to the notion that drawing penalties is in and of itself a skill.

    But I wonder why some players are viewed in one way (IE Evander Kane, Perron, Marchand, Dustin Brown, Turtle) and others are viewed in a different light (IE Crosby, Malkin, Ovi).

    For instance, it’s no secret that players of the first cohort I listed play with an edge but the other three aren’t afraid to muck it up either. Crosby has had some vicious moments worthy of suspension that didn’t even get penalized. Mark Methot’s thumb comes to mind, or when he chopped a guy between the legs from behind.

    Maybe it’s success, but Perron, Marchand and Brown have all won Cups.

    Intent and frequency of borderline plays, perhaps?

    “I suppose this data set lends itself to the notion that drawing penalties is in and of itself a skill.”

    You suppose correct.

    Here’s the correlation between Penalties Drawn per 60 from one season to the next for forwards and defensemen who played at least 20 games in each season:

    Season, F corr, D corr

    09-10, .84, .54
    10-11, .80, .59
    11-12, .77, .61
    12-13, .75, .57
    13-14, .73, .52
    14-15, .74, .57
    15-16, .72, .55
    16-17, .69, .57
    17-18, .65, .59
    18-19, .52, .46

    – reasonably high for both forwards and defensemen; implies skaters who drew penalties at a higher than average pace in one season are a reasonable bet to draw penalties at a higher than average pace the next season

    – the correlations for forwards are trending down, not entirely sure why; maybe the refs are making adjustments

    – the results in the last line could be affected by a shortened regular season; although we don’t see the same affect in 12-13

    It turns out that taking penalties is also a bit of a skill. Here’s the correlation between Penalties Taken per 60 from one season to the next for forwards and defensemen who played at least 20 games in each season:

    Season, F corr, D corr

    09-10, .87, .69
    10-11, .89, .74
    11-12, .83, .66
    12-13, .82, .78
    13-14, .82, .68
    14-15, .84, .73
    15-16, .79, .75
    16-17, .78, .70
    17-18, .71, .70
    18-19, .72, .66

    – again, reasonably high for both forwards and defensemen; implies skaters who take penalties at a higher than average pace in one season are a reasonable bet to take penalties at a higher than average pace the next season

    – and again, the correlations for forwards are trending down, again not entirely sure why

    In a single season, players who draw penalties at a high rate also generally take penalites at a high rate. Here’s the correlation between PenaltiesDrawnPer60 and PenaltiesTakenPer60 in a given season for forwards and defensemen who played at least 20 games:

    Season, F corr, D corr

    09-10, .90, .59
    10-11, .87, .61
    11-12, .84, .62
    12-13, .81, .57
    13-14, .85, .69
    14-15, .75, .63
    15-16, .71, .61
    16-17, .70, .55
    17-18, .63, .56
    18-19, .50, .55
    19-20, .57, .48

    So, even though the refs don’t seem to care whether you’re a skilled player or not when it comes to calling penalties, they seem to have a profile for individual players, a little bit of this guy is dirty and this guy is clean, but more along the lines of this guy is high event, this guy is low event. And players play a certain style as well. Watch a few shifts of Klef and Larsson, it’s easy to see who’s going to take more penalties over their careers. Playing styles and reputations seem to stick.

    The correlation of netPenaltiesPer60 from season to season is roughly around .45 each season, for both forwards and defensemen, suggesting that there is some stickiness to the stat. This could either mean players figure out to a small extent how to play the refs or refs to a small extent stick to a book they have on the players. But you do see refs entering and leaving the league, so maybe the books change as well. There are definitely some guys who’ve managed to accrue a high positive Penalty Differential over their careers:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=penalties&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20092010&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=netPenalties&page=0&pageSize=50

  144. RonnieB says:

    Ribs:
    How about they just push the Neal/Lucic conditions to next season? I like our odds…

    They can’t do that because the Oilers 2021 3rd round pick is conditionally pledged to Detroit for Mike Green
    Detroit receives the Oilers 2020 4th round pick, but it is upgraded to their 2021 3rd if the Oilers reach the 2020 Western Conference Finals and Green plays 50% of the games.

  145. hunter1909 says:

    Gerta Rauss: ..and a top 15 pick..!!

    It’s the Oilers way!

  146. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georges,

    This is some deft work. Really, thank you.

    But in your work today I /still/ don’t see why Connor doesn’t draw more penalties. Even, say, half what he deserves. Look at how few penalties the Oilers draw, year over year. It’s plain to see it’s a thing. We’re getting gypped.

  147. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair: Unfortunately, at this time, I am unable to respond to drive by shootings.

    Hah.

    Accused of Dys Fandom (or Trolldom if you don’t actually like the Dys). I can see how that feels like a drive by attack.

    Actually your daily driveby habit here turned into something far more pleasant when you talk up your local team. No shame in that.

    Saying today what I said in November. The Dys look suits you just fine for better or worse rest of the year.

  148. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georges,

    Also, why does the penalties drawn vs penalties taken seem to skew in favour of penalties drawn overall? Is that an artifact of ‘regular’ players taking advantage of those who play fewer than 20 games per season (IE those with less skill/experience)?

    Otherwise I’d think it should roughly balance out in the aggregate, no?

  149. N64 says:

    LT.

    Very much appreciate that you downplay the politics that folks get so worked up about. Some of your radio comments today left the impression that the Premier and Dr. Hinshaw are an a different page about keeping the 14 day quarantine that have served us so well. AB and BC started these together the same day before the rest of Canada and have stricter requirements for viable isolation plans at arrival

    If you had the opportunity to read Dr. Hinshaw’s letter to the NHL and the Premier’s letter to the PM you’d have seen that both letters were about Dr. Hinshaw’s plan to preserve the 14 day quarantine AND allow players can serve the quarantine as a team cohorts rather than in self-quarantine. Dr. Hinshaw also addressed the premier’s letter in a note to Ryan Rishaug today.

    All of this is on Rishaug’s blog, but maybe even better to get him on your show. Cheers!

  150. JimmyV1965 says:

    Reja: Oilers got screwed it could have easily been the top 2 teams in each division getting the bye. Any team can win in the best of five. I think the biggest factor will be no fans and how it will effect the energy players, there’s a lot of players that feed offthe crowd, it’s going to take the first round to get used to the no crowd.

    I don’t think the Oilers got screwed at all. If they can’t beat the Hawks, they don’t deserve to move on, and they get a top 15 for the trouble!!! If they win, they face the team that performed the worst out of the top four. I’ll take that any day.

  151. Georges says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Georges,

    This is some deft work.Really, thank you.

    But in your work today I /still/ don’t see why Connor doesn’t draw more penalties.Even, say, half what he deserves.Look at how few penalties the Oilers draw, year over year.It’s plain to see it’s a thing.We’re getting gypped.

    It’s relative.

    Compare CMD to other forwards who play a lot of minutes, like Kopitar, Kane, Crosby, Giroux, Stamkos, Tavares, or Eichel.

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=penalties&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20092010&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&position=F&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,100&sort=timeOnIcePerGame&page=0&pageSize=50

    That list includes the top 50 forwards by TOI/GP (minimum 100 GP).

    You’ll see CMD draws 1.29 Penalties per 60.

    The only guys on that list who drew penalties at a higher rate were Malkin and Perry. They both took more penalties than they drew so let’s say they’re know to the refs as high event players.

    What you then have is CMD comfortably at the head of the skilled forward pack when it comes to drawing penalties. If refs start calling more penalties in favor of CMD, how much further can the refs put him ahead of that peer group? Crosby wouldn’t compare himself or the penalties he draws with Dustin Brown. But he probably would compare his treatment by the refs with the treatment they give to CMD. It would cause penalty inflation. League doesn’t want more penalties. The refs can’t call everything. Slows the game down. Some of it might just be CMD moves too fast and the refs don’t see the penalty as it happens.

  152. Georges says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Georges,

    Also, why does the penalties drawn vs penalties taken seem to skew in favour of penalties drawn overall?Is that an artifact of ‘regular’ players taking advantage of those who play fewer than 20 games per season (IE those with less skill/experience)?

    Otherwise I’d think it should roughly balance out in the aggregate, no?

    Where do you see that?

  153. hunter1909 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: We’re getting gypped.

    Oilers possess the best 1-2 punch in hockey, and you’re whining about not getting more penalties?

    Respectful advice: In future, please leave this kind of nonsense where it belongs on the Vancouver Canucks “we failed’ board lol

    See “Harpers Hair” for more info

  154. Lowetide says:

    N64:
    LT.

    Very much appreciate that you downplay the politics that folks get so worked up about. Some of your radio comments today left the impression that the Premier and Dr. Hinshaw are an a different page about keeping the 14 day quarantine that have served us so well. AB and BC started these together the same day before the rest of Canada and have stricter requirements for viable isolation plans at arrival

    If you had the opportunity to read Dr. Hinshaw’s letter to the NHL and the Premier’s letter to the PM you’d have seen that both letters were about Dr. Hinshaw’s plan to preserve the 14 day quarantine AND allow players can serve the quarantine as a team cohorts rather than in self-quarantine. Dr. Hinshaw also addressed the premier’s letter in a note to Ryan Rishaug today.

    All of this is on Rishaug’s blog, but maybe even better to get him on your show. Cheers!

    Actually, I was implying the pressure from the premier was directed at the feds but that the proposal by the NHL seemed to put both levels of government in a spot. I understand why a provincial government would publicly pressure Ottawa, that’s just good business. The surprise, for me, is that the NHL doesn’t view the two weeks of quarantine as a good idea. After all, it’s been successful in Alberta, one would think the NHL might incorporate it in their plan.

  155. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja: I agree but if Crawford steals a game or two we’re talking draft again.

    Draft Shmaft. We’ll be talking LOTTERY, BABY!

  156. N64 says:

    Lowetide: Actually, I was implying the pressure from the premier was directed at the feds but that the proposal by the NHL seemed to put both levels of government in a spot. I understand why a provincial government would publicly pressure Ottawa, that’s just good business. The surprise, for me, is that the NHL doesn’t view the two weeks of quarantine as a good idea. After all, it’s been successful in Alberta, one would think the NHL might incorporate it in their plan.

    Thanks.

    Publicly at least Daly has been saying the 14 days is a problem if that means self quarantine (vs. the team quarantine that Dr. H and JK are pushing Ottawa on.)

    I think the NHL will. avoid the border entirely and that’s fine. Push for no
    14 day quarantinee would not be fine.

  157. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    hunter1909,

    I see. You’d prefer McDavid to continue getting fouled every game, uncalled to the point of being molested. So that borderline dirty actors like Doughty can take liberties with our Captain and laugh about it on the bench. Or Benning to take more cheap shots by known predators (E Kane), Davidson’s career basically ruined by Turtle’s slewfoot.

    Seems legit.

    I personally would like to see some retribution from our own players if the refs don’t call the rule book. Something I would have figured a dinosaur like you would appreciate.

  158. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georges,

    I’m probably reading the numbers wrong but the higher rate of penalties drawn vs. the lower number for penalties taken. Or am I parsing the data incorrectly?

  159. Lowetide says:

    New for @TheAthleticEDM
    Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft, and an ‘ideal pick’ for Edmonton in each round. Free 90-day trial continues, just click on the link

    https://theathletic.com/1837922/2020/05/28/lowetide-oilers-greatest-areas-of-need-for-the-2020-draft/

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think the Oilers got screwed at all. If they can’t beat the Hawks, they don’t deserve to move on, and they get a top 15 for the trouble!!! If they win, they face the team that performed the worst out of the top four. I’ll take that any day.

    This may not necessarily be true – it hasn’t yet been officially determined if they are going bracket style or re-seeding.

  161. Ribs says:

    RonnieB: They can’t do that because the Oilers 2021 3rd round pick is conditionally pledged to Detroit for Mike Green
    Detroit receives the Oilers 2020 4th round pick, but it is upgraded to their 2021 3rd if the Oilers reach the 2020 Western Conference Finals and Green plays 50% of the games.

    Good catch! Draft proceedings happening before or during the playoffs really puts a cramp on that plan.

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