Experiments with Foreign Sounds

I believe the first 30 picks are going to follow a fairly predictable path for the 2020 draft. Even a list like mine, which is a math list, should be able to predict much of the first round. The top players in this draft are obvious.

A year ago, my first round list contained six forwards who weren’t chosen in the first 31 names. These are good players but were passed over for various reasons. Are they progressing?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

LOWETIDE’S SIX OVERLOOKED FIRST-ROUND FORWARDS 2019 DRAFT

This is the group and the numbers we were talking about on the second day of the draft (well I was talking about it, you were still discussing Philip Broberg). I liked everyone on this list and four later names (Blake Murray, Samuel Fagemo, Nils Hoglander, Brett Leason) as legit NHL offensive forwards. Remember, this is after the first round, when about 15 forwards with plus offensive potential were taken.

I always like to check and see how these players do in year two, as each year of development post draft is important. You don’t write off a player on the downbeat but it’s worth noting the trends. Here’s draft plus one for the group:

Arthur Kaliyev’s numbers in his draft year were so impressive, couldn’t believe he slipped into the second round. Did he improve? Yes. Yes he did. Nick Robertson absolutely zoomed past the rest of the group, if he does it again people are going to claim they knew he was DeBrincat on draft day. Oilers’ Lavoie has done well in the last two seasons, that’s a strong uptick. We’ll visit this again next year, I bet three of these guys (at least) have NHL careers.

LOWETIDE’S 2020 FIRST ROUND FORWARDS

I have completed the top 75 for my Monday draft list (“Here Comes the Sun 2020”) but will be referring to this list and the first-round forwards for this segment. Not a lot of change but there is some. I believe all of these players will be chosen in the first round:

Now, for the rest of the forwards I have ranked as first rounders. Several will be available early in round two.

If I had to pick six names who will be available early in the second round of the draft, I’ll go with Mysak, Reichel, Foerster, Greig, Foudy and Neighbours. There’s real quality there, Greig is fairly close to Lavoie in quality. There is no Kaliyev likely to fall, of course there shouldn’t have been last year. It would be fabulous to get an early second round selection. If Holland could walk away from the 2020 draft with Bourque (first round) and Greig (second round) the forward pipeline would see significant improvement.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we kickstart the weekend with a fantastic lineup. At 10:20 Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports will join us to talk about the NHL’s return to play plan, plus some innovations in the broadcasts he’d like to see. Corey Pronman from The Athletic pops in at 10:40 to discuss his final 2020 list (it is here) and some of the true gems of this draft. Matthew Iwanyk will chat about Edmonton as an NHL site for the 2020 playoffs and the race by NA’s major sports to get back on the field/court/ice and into the living rooms of the nation. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. This will be a blast!

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108 Responses to "Experiments with Foreign Sounds"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I hear that in a re-draft, given he’ll be added to the Leaf roster for the play-in and playoffs, Nick Robertson would go 1st overall, no?

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    So, the Oilers could pick 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 9th, 10th, 11th and, essentially, anywhere from 20-31, is that right?

  3. PennersPancakes says:

    Re: Robertson

    Why did he drop so much? i know the huge uptick is well… huge and possibly unexpected.

    Was it a situation of high risk high reward? His draft numbers were good but not otherwordly but he was 5 days away from going in the draft this year. I know age isnt the end all be all but damn did Toronto sneak one out?

    LT: If Robertson was born Sept 16th and eligible for the 2020 draft where would you rank him? Leading the CHL in goals is huge (3 more than second place Quinn in 16 less games).

  4. Elgin R says:

    Sportsnet has Seth Jarvis ranked at #29 overall. A RC from the WHL would be a good pick if still available. RHD should be addressed as soon as the 3rd round as the pipeline is bare at this position.

    The Lavoie pick was a good choice, big RC who can skate. The Leafs chose another small-skilled forward to go along with their abundant small-skilled forwards! Questions remain about point totals from the Q and how this transfers to an NHL career. However, the Oilers (Holland) will allow this young man to learn the pro game and what it takes to make and succeed in the NHL. The Ethan Bear and Zack Kassian stories should be mandatory viewing all prospects.

  5. geowal says:

    Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl. Have a whole new great appreciation for the staff at Foothills Hospital, who got Mom and Baby home safe. It has its problems, but our healthcare system seems to do babies well.
    Things sure change on a dime but still find myself logged in here reading LTs post, thinking about Oilers hockey.

  6. Brantford Boy says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Sounds reasonable… I was wondering the same thing reading today’s post…

  7. Brantford Boy says:

    geowal,

    Congratulations!

  8. Hitman77 says:

    Lots of decent forwards available for this draft. Hopefully Holland can acquire a second round pick.

  9. defmn says:

    geowal:
    Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl. Have a whole new great appreciation for the staff at Foothills Hospital, who got Mom and Baby home safe. It has its problems, but our healthcare system seems to do babies well.
    Things sure change on a dime but still find myself logged in here reading LTs post, thinking about Oilers hockey.

    Congrats. Nothing like fatherhood. Treasure every moment.

  10. Pescador says:

    geowal:
    Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl. Have a whole new great appreciation for the staff at Foothills Hospital, who got Mom and Baby home safe. It has its problems, but our healthcare system seems to do babies well.
    Things sure change on a dime but still find myself logged in here reading LTs post, thinking about Oilers hockey.

    Congratulations on your new addition Geowal!
    I agree with you, the doctors and nurses that ply their trade in the maternity wards of our fine hospitals are special people to say the least.
    On a side note,
    I sometimes wonder what it would be like if the conception portion of creating a baby required a Doctor and a couple of nurses to be present? Lol

  11. godot10 says:

    Pescador:
    I sometimes wonder what it would be like if the conception portion of creating a baby required a Doctor and a couple of nurses to be present? Lol

    Medically trained professionals are often present at conception these days, and the parents are not.

  12. barry.moore23 says:

    Everything I know about the NHL draft I learn here. That being said for some reason I was somehow drawn to this Ryan Merkley guy in 2018. He went #21 to San Jose. Oil took Bouchard at #10. Not sure what my point is I guess Merkley is a guy I will be watching and hope he succeeds somewhere. High risk, high reward was the scoop.

    Rafferty – How can we not cheer for a guy that played for Bloomingon Thunder in USHL 🙂

    Our adult leagues in AZ are a go !!!!! Woo hooooooo

    WG – great job (not surprising) on the Lowdown yesterday.

  13. dustrock says:

    geowal,

    Congratulations, nothing like that feeling.

  14. dustrock says:

    Think I’d like Zary, Bourque, Quinn or Jarvis.

    I would assume one of them would be available at 20.

    Zary is probably where I am leaning but I think he’ll go top 15, unless there’s some kind of run on d-men.

  15. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So, the Oilers could pick 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 9th, 10th, 11th and, essentially, anywhere from 20-31, is that right?

    I have it a little differently

    If the Oilers lose to Chicago, they can pick 1,2,3 (winning one of the lottery picks)

    or

    12,13,14,15

    From Scott Burnside’s piece a couple days ago

    The remaining top 15 draft picks will go to the remaining bottom seven teams and the eight teams that lose in the play-in round in inverse order of their points percentage at the time of the pause

    Of the teams that have to play in, here are the relevant pp%

    PIT .623%
    CAR .596%
    NYI .588%
    EDM .585%

    If the Oilers lose to CHI, and PIT,CAR,and NYI advance, the Oilers would have the highest pp% of the 15 teams NOT in the playoff round, and be picking 15th

    If the Oilers lose to CHI and any/all of PIT,CAR, and NYI also lose, the Oilers move up to 14th,13th or 12th because those 3 teams have a higher pp% at the time of the pause

    If the Oilers beat CHI and reach the 16 team playoff…I’d have to dig a little deeper

    I think they pick 20th based on overall pp%, and that would only change if they make the final 4 (of which, these 4 teams pick 28,29,30, and 31(cup winner)

  16. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So, the Oilers could pick 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 9th, 10th, 11th and, essentially, anywhere from 20-31, is that right?

    How do you get 9-11? I thought it was 1-3, 12-15, 20, 30 and 31.

  17. ArmchairGM says:

    geowal:
    Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl. Have a whole new great appreciation for the staff at Foothills Hospital, who got Mom and Baby home safe. It has its problems, but our healthcare system seems to do babies well.
    Things sure change on a dime but still find myself logged in here reading LTs post, thinking about Oilers hockey.

    Congrats! New life is so precious – it doesn’t seem like it at the time, but that initial newborn stage doesn’t last long, so enjoy it.

  18. Gerta Rauss says:

    Gerta Rauss: If the Oilers beat CHI and reach the 16 team playoff…I’d have to dig a little deeper

    I think they pick 20th based on overall pp%, and that would only change if they make the final 4 (of which, these 4 teams pick 28,29,30, and 31(cup winner)

    I’m going to defer from spending any more time on this..life’s too short and the sun is shining this Friday morning

    It’s a bit of a quagmire because draft order (for teams 16-31) is usually determined by several factors, including points accumulated during the regular season, NOT points percentage…with teams having played a different number of games, you can see how this will have to be addressed by the league

    Also, there is a provision for division winners – again, Corona virus…

    Anyway, I’m cheering for picks 1,2,3 or 31 and I’ll let the league figure out the rest

  19. Ribs says:

    geowal,

    Congrats to you and your family!

  20. PREDICKTER says:

    If a team from 8 – 15 wins one of the first three picks, I believe there will be a lottery draw to seed the teams from 8 – 15. So, if this happens and the Oilers get drawn as team A, they would draft at 9. I believe the Oilers can draft at 1,2,3, or 9 – 15 if they lose to Chicago.

  21. ArmchairGM says:

    Certain corners of the Al Gore are going crazy today with Jack Eichel’s “fed up with losing” comments. To me there’s nothing to see here, but trade speculation is running rampant. Interesting that I haven’t seen any mention of it here.

  22. ArmchairGM says:

    PREDICKTER:
    If a team from 8 – 15 wins one of the first three picks, I believe there will be a lottery draw to seed theteams from 8 – 15. So, if this happens and the Oilers get drawn as team A, they would draft at 8. I believe the Oilers can draft at 1,2,3, or 8 – 15 if they lose to Chicago.

    No, see Gerta Rauss’s comment above. The second lottery is only to determine which team – if any – of the 8-15 play-in loser’s get a lottery pick. It does not determine draft order and will only be held if a placeholder wins one of the top 3 picks in the initial lottery.

  23. hunter1909 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Certain corners of the Al Gore are going crazy today with Jack Eichel’s “fed up with losing” comments. To me there’s nothing to see here, but trade speculation is running rampant. Interesting that I haven’t seen any mention of it here.

    No one really cares?

    Eichel’s mired in Buffalo, the new Edmonton viz pure futility. It’s already being argued that unless he did complain that would actually be the real problem, since he’s being paid a fortune lol

    The owners trophy wife being the president of the Sabres, there is no escape forthcoming short of a miracle in Buffalo that we all know ain’t happening.

    The 2020 Oilers are a model of stability and perfection from Katz pouring money into the team and Holland/Tippett providing 1st class management/coaching for the first time since Sather in the 20th century.

  24. doritogrande says:

    Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl. Have a whole new great appreciation for the staff at Foothills Hospital, who got Mom and Baby home safe. It has its problems, but our healthcare system seems to do babies well.
    Things sure change on a dime but still find myself logged in here reading LTs post, thinking about Oilers hockey.

    Congratulations. Our first-born came to us the same day Broberg came to the Oilers, so Broberg’s probably my MA Pouliot. I couldn’t thank the hospital staff enough that day, everything went so smoothly. Like you said, they do babies well.

  25. Darth Tu says:

    geowal:
    Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl. Have a whole new great appreciation for the staff at Foothills Hospital, who got Mom and Baby home safe. It has its problems, but our healthcare system seems to do babies well.
    Things sure change on a dime but still find myself logged in here reading LTs post, thinking about Oilers hockey.

    Congratulations!

  26. defmn says:

    I posted the first 10 of these the other day and here is the rest of the first round. Rankings seem to be all over the place even in the top end of the round with huge differences for some players. I am not claiming the five comparatives to our host’s list are the best in the biz but they are all in public domain and they have all been doing this for a long time.

    This is just a fun exercise because not all of these rankings are from exactly the same time frame. They are all from at least March, however, and since that was the last time there was any ‘on ice’ data the lists should be pretty close to final.

    The wildly different assessments start after the first 8.

    Lowetide’s list will be the 1 to 31 ‘anchor’ for the lists. His is from May and is designated as LT.

    Elite Prospects is their April ranking and is designated as EP.

    ISS is their March ranking and is designated as ISS.

    Future Considerations is their March ranking and is designated as FC.

    McKeens is their Final ranking and is designated as MK.

    Draft Analyst by Steve Kournianos is their March ranking and is designated as DA.

    NR refers to not in the top 31.

    As can be seen there is not a lot of consensus after #1 even for the first 10.

    1. Alexis Lafreniere – LT 1: EP 1; ISS 1; FC 1; MK 1; DA 1.

    2. Quinton Byfield – LT 2; EP 2; ISS 4; FC 2; MK 3; DA 2.

    3. Tim Stuetzle – LT 3; EP 8; ISS 2; FC 3; MK 2; DA 3.

    4. Marco Rossi – LT 4; EP 3; ISS 7; FC 8; MK 9; DA 5.

    5. Jamie Drysdale – LT 5; EP 5; ISS 3; FC 7; MK 6; DA 8.

    6. Cole Perfetti – LT 6; EP 7; ISS 6; FC 9; MK 8; DA 4.

    7. Alexander Holtz – LT 7; EP 6; ISS 9; FC 5; MK 7; DA 6.

    8. Lukas Raymond – LT 8; EP 4; ISS 5; FC 4; MK 4; DA 9.

    9. Jack Quinn – LT 9; EP 15; ISS 10; FC 23; MK 10; DA 21.

    10. Dawson Mercer – LT 10; EP 14; ISS 12; FC 12; MK 13; DA 24.

    —————————————————————-

    11. Mavrik Bourque – LT 11; EP 19; ISS 31; FC 29; MK 25; DA 19.

    12. Connor Zary – LT 12; EP 27; ISS 17; FC 15; MK 20; DA 16.

    13. Anton Lundell – LT 13; EP 9; ISS 8; FC 7; MK 18; DA 10.

    14. Noel Gunler – LT 14; EP 21; ISS 20; FC 16; MK 21; DA NR.

    15. Jake Sanderson – LT 15; EP 12; ISS 11; FC 19; MK 21; DA 6.

    16. Seth Jarvis – LT 16; EP 11; ISS 29; FC 16; MK 12; DA 11.

    17. Jeremie Poirier – LT 17; EP 26; ISS NR; FC 24; MK NR; DA NR.

    18. Jacob Perreault – LT 17; EP 22; ISS 27; FC 22; MK 28; DA 19.

    19. Braden Schneider – LT 19; EP NR; ISS 13; FC 27; MK 15; DA NR.

    20. Jan Mysak – LT 20; EP 28; ISS 25; FC 15; MK 27; DA 16.

    ————————————————————-

    21. Hendrix Lapierre – LT 21; EP 27; ISS 17; FC 26; MK 20; DA NR.

    22. Lukas Reichel – LT 22; EP NR; ISS 31; FC NR; MK NR; DA 25.

    23. Yaroslavl Askarov -LT 23; EP 10; ISS NR; FC 11; MK 11; DA 18.

    24. Tyson Foerster – LT 24; EP NR; ISS NR; FC NR; MK 11; DA NR.

    25. Rodin Amirov – LT 25; EP 13; ISS 16; FC 19; MK 25; DA 7.

    26. Kaiden Guhle – LT 26; EP 20; ISS 14; FC 28; MK 14; DA 26.

    27. Dylan Holloway – LT 27; EP 18; ISS 20; FC 10; MK 26; DA 13.

    28. Justin Barron – LT 28; EP NR; ISS 23; FC NR; MK NR; DA NR.

    29. Ridly Greig – LT 29; EP NR; ISS NR; FC NR; MK 24; DA NR.

    30. Jean-Luc Foudy – LT 30; EP NR; ISS NR; FC 31; MK NR; DA NR.

    31. Jake Neighbours – LT 31; EP NR; ISS 26; FC 31; MK 23; DA 31.

    My secret hope is that whoever chooses first screws up and calls out Alex Laferriere instead of Alexis Lafreniere. Alex is on some lists as a 3rd round hopeful.

  27. dustrock says:

    Lapierre is the one home run prospect in the first round I think. Which player is he? Is he healthy? I don’t think there’s anyway he goes in the first round, unless it’s to a team who has multiple firsts.

  28. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    PennersPancakes:
    Re: Robertson

    Why did he drop so much? i know the huge uptick is well… huge and possibly unexpected.

    Was it a situation of high risk high reward? His draft numbers were good but not otherwordly but he was 5 days away from going in the draft this year. I know age isnt the end all be all but damn did Toronto sneak one out?

    LT: If Robertson was born Sept 16th and eligible for the 2020 draft where would you rank him? Leading the CHL in goals is huge (3 more than second place Quinn in 16 less games).

    I think it was yet another circumstance of many scouts neglecting the great deal of value to be found in smaller late birthdays. If you dug into the numbers on Robertson a bit, you found he was a highly productive shot generator, great EV scorer, great skater, he attacks the net, has an Eberle-esque toe drag and a mighty fine shot.

    I wrote this about him when I briefly wrote for Oil On Whyte after the Oilers passed on him in favour of Lavoie:

    “C/LW, Nicholas Robertson (Toronto) – quality even strength production, VERY late birthday (turns 18 in September) and an explosive skater. Chippy player with a habit of beating goalies both with shots, toe drags and jock-dropping dangles. Gallagher-esque.” https://oilonwhyte.com/2019/06/23/free-agency-oilers-replicate-blues/

    Not to prove LT’s point about people saying “I told you so”, but I’m looking forward to seeing how that article continues to age!

  29. jtblack says:

    geowal:
    Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl. Have a whole new great appreciation for the staff at Foothills Hospital, who got Mom and Baby home safe. It has its problems, but our healthcare system seems to do babies well.
    Things sure change on a dime but still find myself logged in here reading LTs post, thinking about Oilers hockey.

    +1 , Congrats … sleepless nights …but lots of joy ..:)

  30. Hitman77 says:

    barry.moore23:
    Everything I know about the NHL draft I learn here. That being said for some reason I was somehow drawn to this Ryan Merkley guy in 2018. He went #21 to San Jose. Oil took Bouchard at #10. Not sure what my point is I guess Merkley is a guy I will be watching and hope he succeeds somewhere. High risk, high reward was the scoop.

    I kept hearing his talent was easily top 10 but it was his character that sewered him.

  31. jtblack says:

    ” If Holland could walk away from the 2020 draft with Bourque (first round) and Greig (second round) the forward pipeline would see significant improvement. ”

    I would be over the moon with those 2 picks …

  32. €√¥£€^$ says:

    geowal:
    Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl. Have a whole new great appreciation for the staff at Foothills Hospital, who got Mom and Baby home safe. It has its problems, but our healthcare system seems to do babies well.
    Things sure change on a dime but still find myself logged in here reading LTs post, thinking about Oilers hockey.

    Congrats Geowal, welcome to the ‘hood!

    Enjoy the ride, it is quite the adventure, even 30 yrs later.

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Elgin R:
    Sportsnet has Seth Jarvis ranked at #29 overall.A RC from the WHL would be a good pick if still available.RHD should be addressed as soon as the 3rd round as the pipeline is bare at this position.

    The Lavoie pick was a good choice, big RC who can skate.The Leafs chose another small-skilled forward to go along with their abundant small-skilled forwards!Questions remain about point totals from the Q and how this transfers to an NHL career.However, the Oilers (Holland) will allow this young man to learn the pro game and what it takes to make and succeed in the NHL.The Ethan Bear and Zack Kassian stories should be mandatory viewing all prospects.

    I know Lavoie is often listed as a RC but I believe he played much more wing than center in the Q and I anticipate he will be a full time winger as a pro.

  34. geowal says:

    €√¥£€^$: Congrats Geowal, welcome to the ‘hood!

    Enjoy the ride, it’s quite the adventure, even 30 yrs later.

    Thanks all, its already been quite the whirlwind experience.

  35. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    While on the topic of the draft, I just spent the morning finally digging into some draft numbers and I’ve identified a few early preferences. My evaluation has so far been centered around forwards.

    Bourque is the clear favourite for me ~20. His 0.80 EV P1/GP would’ve been the highest among all draft eligible forwards last year (Kaliyev held a 0.73) and his 3.42 P1/60 is an impressive total even among an egregiously strong cohort. His total there would’ve also been the highest among draftees last year (McMichael and Legare were next closest at 3.21 respectively) and would’ve only been bested by Svechnikov’s the year prior- all this while leading his team in scoring. The guy has an impressive blend of offensive skills and gives a damn.

    I’ve mentioned Chromiak before even though his numbers came alongside Wright, but I think his stock has risen high enough that he might not be worth the risk in the 40s as his rank lists him.

    William Villeneuve is the only Dman on the list so far and only because his totals stood out that much. I’m sure he has defensive flaws to his game and maybe some other major flaw also, but I can’t help but point out a Dman that led his team in scoring, posted 1.56 P1/60 (for context, Drysdale posted 1.59 and Bouchard 1.75). Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 46 w/ a whole lotta variance.

    Tristen Robins kinda came outta left field for me but he has some very nice results. 3.04 P1/60, +9.84 relGF%, 3.76 shots/gm, 72% of his points at evens and led his team. Scouting reports make him sound a LOT like Yamamoto. Deceptive skater, surprising physicality, engaged in battles, attacks the net, doesn’t give up or take a night off; kinda strikes me as a mid-round Gallagher candidate! Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 55.

    Rory Kerins shows well in a few ways and kinda gives Horvat-lite vibes. A bit shy in the shooting dimension, though and like has a lower ceiling. Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 71.

    Jack Finley strikes me as an odd case. VERY late birthday, 6’5 RC, solid skater (lacks in first step, fine at top speed), good passer, good offensive numbers (2.66 P1/60), and solid relative GF% (+10.95) considering he didn’t play with Beckman much. Isn’t getting a lot of buzz despite what strikes me as the PERFECT boom toolkit. Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 78 (38 in NA by CSS).

    James Hardie posted some strong numbers on a not-crazy-good team. Good EV scorer w/ 71% of his pts coming at EVs including 23 goals. Big time volume shooter, too. Leads OHL draft eligibles with 4.27 shots/gm. Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 80.

    Pavel Novak posted some impressive totals (3.43 P1/60, +17.4 relGF%) but it’s hard to say how much of that is the result of the additions his team made. Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 85.

    There’s probably more that I’ve forgotten about here, but it’s a start!

  36. ArmchairGM says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    I’m not sure about defensive flaws in Villeneuve’s game, Pronman doesn’t seem to have any issues with that. His concerns center around skating:

    “He’s a fun player to watch, as the former No. 2 pick in the Q draft is full of skill and offensive creativity. With the puck he’s looking to make plays, and has the ability to find seams and improvise. He’s got the flashy hands to make skilled plays. He prefers to make a good pass as oppose to dangle, but he has that in his game. Villeneuve played hard defensive minutes for Saint John and showed a steady defensive presence. The main issue with his game is skating. His stride is average at best and at times looks below-average. His skating breaks down at times and he lacks true pro-level quickness. He has enough speed and quickness to get a 50 from me, but I thought about it for a while and I get why some scouts are hesitant and think he’ll have issues defending at the faster levels.”

    https://theathletic.com/1769140/2020/05/27/pronmans-2020-nhl-draft-board-top-122-prospects/

  37. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    While on the topic of the draft, I just spent the morning finally digging into some draft numbers and I’ve identified a few early preferences. My evaluation has so far been centered around forwards.

    Bourque is the clear favourite for me ~20. His 0.80 EV P1/GP would’ve been the highest among all draft eligible forwards last year (Kaliyev held a 0.73) and his 3.42 P1/60 is an impressive total even among an egregiously strong cohort. His total there would’ve also been the highest among draftees last year (McMichael and Legare were next closest at 3.21 respectively) and would’ve only been bested by Svechnikov’s the year prior- all this while leading his team in scoring. The guy has an impressive blend of offensive skills and gives a damn.

    I’ve mentioned Chromiak before even though his numbers came alongside Wright, but I think his stock has risen high enough that he might not be worth the risk in the 40s as his rank lists him.

    William Villeneuve is the only Dman on the list so far and only because his totals stood out that much. I’m sure he has defensive flaws to his game and maybe some other major flaw also, but I can’t help but point out a Dman that led his team in scoring, posted 1.56 P1/60 (for context, Drysdale posted 1.59 and Bouchard 1.75). Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 46 w/ a whole lotta variance.

    Tristen Robins kinda came outta left field for me but he has some very nice results. 3.04 P1/60, +9.84 relGF%, 3.76 shots/gm, 72% of his points at evens and led his team. Scouting reports make him sound a LOT like Yamamoto. Deceptive skater, surprising physicality, engaged in battles, attacks the net, doesn’t give up or take a night off; kinda strikes me as a mid-round Gallagher candidate! Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 55.

    Rory Kerins shows well in a few ways and kinda gives Horvat-lite vibes. A bit shy in the shooting dimension, though and like has a lower ceiling. Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 71.

    Jack Finley strikes me as an odd case. VERY late birthday, 6’5 RC, solid skater (lacks in first step, fine at top speed), good passer, good offensive numbers (2.66 P1/60), and solid relative GF% (+10.95) considering he didn’t play with Beckman much. Isn’t getting a lot of buzz despite what strikes me as the PERFECT boom toolkit. Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 78 (38 in NA by CSS).

    James Hardie posted some strong numbers on a not-crazy-good team. Good EV scorer w/ 71% of his pts coming at EVs including 23 goals. Big time volume shooter, too. Leads OHL draft eligibles with 4.27 shots/gm. Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 80.

    Pavel Novak posted some impressive totals (3.43 P1/60, +17.4 relGF%) but it’s hard to say how much of that is the result of the additions his team made. Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 85.

    There’s probably more that I’ve forgotten about here, but it’s a start!

    I would be happy with Bourque but I fully expect to hear pre-draft leaks about the Oil interest in Jake Sanderson. And of course, Jake will fall a bit and be available at 20 at which point the Oil will select … well hell, you all know how this ends.

  38. hunter1909 says:

    MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT

    HUNTER2020 PLAYOFF DEATH MARCH™ is taking names…

    To Register, Go straight to:

    https://oilersdeathmarch.com/playoffs-2020/

    Thank you for your cooperation

  39. hunter1909 says:

    HUNTER1909’s Official Oilers 2020 Death March™

    Register NOW!

    https://oilersdeathmarch.com/playoffs-2020/

  40. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    I’m not sure about defensive flaws in Villeneuve’s game, Pronman doesn’t seem to have any issues with that. His concerns center around skating:

    “He’s a fun player to watch, as the former No. 2 pick in the Q draft is full of skill and offensive creativity. With the puck he’s looking to make plays, and has the ability to find seams and improvise. He’s got the flashy hands to make skilled plays. He prefers to make a good pass as oppose to dangle, but he has that in his game. Villeneuve played hard defensive minutes for Saint John and showed a steady defensive presence. The main issue with his game is skating. His stride is average at best and at times looks below-average. His skating breaks down at times and he lacks true pro-level quickness. He has enough speed and quickness to get a 50 from me, but I thought about it for a while and I get why some scouts are hesitant and think he’ll have issues defending at the faster levels.”

    https://theathletic.com/1769140/2020/05/27/pronmans-2020-nhl-draft-board-top-122-prospects/

    Ah, I figured it would be one of those two; thanks for the clarification! Skating is certainly a concern. However, it’s also a prime opportunity for a massive boom if it’s a technical matter that can be fixed by some special attention. He’ll be interesting to follow!

  41. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: I would be happy with Bourque but I fully expect to hear pre-draft leaks about the Oil interest in Jake Sanderson. And of course, Jake will fall a bit and be available at 20 at which point the Oil will select … well hell, you all know how this ends.

    I mean, if Sanderson falls THAT far, I don’t know that I could be TOO mad with them picking him. I’d still prefer Bourque regardless, though.

  42. ArmchairGM says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Ah, I figured it would be one of those two; thanks for the clarification! Skating is certainly a concern. However, it’s also a prime opportunity for a massive boom if it’s a technical matter that can be fixed by some special attention. He’ll be interesting to follow!

    I meant to ask: where are you getting the prospect stats from?

    And thanks for posting this. I think its critical that the Oilers hit on their mid-round picks, so it’s interesting to read about some of these “unknowns”. Just looking through Pronman’s top-122 and noticed Finley wasn’t listed – seems strange for a Sept 02 birthday with his physical attributes who posted good boxscores in a very good junior league.

  43. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    ArmchairGM: I meant to ask: where are you getting the prospect stats from?

    And thanks for posting this. I think its critical that the Oilers hit on their mid-round picks, so it’s interesting to read about some of these “unknowns”. Just looking through Pronman’s top-122 and noticed Finley wasn’t listed – seems strange for a Sept 02 birthday with his physical attributes who posted good boxscores in a very good junior league.

    Not a problem! There are few things I enjoy more than discussing prospects! I just recently found this site: https://pick224.com/#

    That’s precisely why Finley has me so confused. I’ve seen some suggest his good-but-not-great hockey IQ and lack of high-end skill would be his most likely limiting factors, so I can understand why some might be apprehensive to have him all too high. But not even having him in the top-122 strikes me as a bit odd.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Listening to Drai today, interesting note (at least to me) is that he stayed in Canada through this entire ordeal. Was in Edmonton for much it but is now somewhere else in Canada (he didn’t say where) but also that he’s been able to skate a few times – I like hearing all of that.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    Daly confirms that stats for the play-in will be considered playoff stats.

    To me, this leans towards the potential for the first real round (or first two real rounds) to be best 5 as oppossed to best of 7 (which hasn’t yet been determined).

    To me, if there are 4 best of 7 series, I wouldn’t want those play-in stats to count but, if one or two of the rounds are best of 5 then I can get on board with it a bit more.

    I would prefer the stats didn’t count and there were 4 best of 7 – like a normal playoffs.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Some answers about how the are going to schedule games:

    Jason Gregor

    @JasonGregor
    “It will be similar to the Olympic format. The start times will be 12 p.m., 4:30 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. most likely, and if a game goes long due to overtime, then we will have to push the start time.” Daly on schedule of play-ins. #NHL

  47. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Listening to Drai today, interesting note (at least to me) is that he stayed in Canada through this entire ordeal.Was in Edmonton for much it but is now somewhere else in Canada (he didn’t say where) but also that he’s been able to skate a few times – I like hearing all of that.

    The Swedish players can pool together for a private jet. For a lone German player, it is not particularly affordable to do it on your own.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    A quote from Judd Brackett with a bit of insight on why he’s parting ways with the Canucks:

    https://twitter.com/friedgehnic/status/1266475493915754501?s=21

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: The Swedish players can pool together for a private jet.For a lone German player, it is not particularly affordable to do it on your own.

    I’m not sure that was a factor on him staying in Canada the entire time.

  50. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Listening to Drai today, interesting note (at least to me) is that he stayed in Canada through this entire ordeal.Was in Edmonton for much it but is now somewhere else in Canada (he didn’t say where) but also that he’s been able to skate a few times – I like hearing all of that.

    My guess is he hunkered down with wunderschone frau somewhere in the Shuswap area.

  51. N64 says:

    hunter1909:
    HUNTER1909’s Official Oilers 2020 Death March™

    Register NOW!

    https://oilersdeathmarch.com/playoffs-2020/

    Huh? We don’t even know which rounds will be 7 games. Not settled by NHL & PA.

    Without that information some bets will be as good as wasted.

    Diabolical.

  52. BONE207 says:

    geowal:
    Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl. Have a whole new great appreciation for the staff at Foothills Hospital, who got Mom and Baby home safe. It has its problems, but our healthcare system seems to do babies well.
    Things sure change on a dime but still find myself logged in here reading LTs post, thinking about Oilers hockey.

    Hey…congratulations!!!
    If this is your 1st, I found that the 1st 5 years are the most important. Have fun.
    Unlike Pescador, I don’t wish doctors be along for the conception phase. Reminds me too much of a friend who provided special services for a hutterite colony…?

  53. dustrock says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Thanks for this.

    I’ve liked what I’ve read about Bourque as well.

    Like LT with his profile on Bourque

    https://theathletic.com/1764016/2020/04/23/lowetide-mavrik-bourque-a-quality-option-for-the-oilers-at-2020-draft/

    I wonder if he played half the game for a crap Shawinigan team and if that’s affecting his stats, although I know we have the same worry about certain players (Pouliot, Gagner, Schremp) getting zoomed by being on great teams.

    He’s certainly worthy of a pick at #20 though.

    If the Oilers pick #15, do you still pick him?

    Do you pick him over someone like Zary or Jarvis?

    Ha ha Jarvis has a 73.45% EV/GF wow.

    17.45GF%Rel. Wowzers.

  54. Scungilli Slushy says:

    geowal:
    Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl. Have a whole new great appreciation for the staff at Foothills Hospital, who got Mom and Baby home safe. It has its problems, but our healthcare system seems to do babies well.
    Things sure change on a dime but still find myself logged in here reading LTs post, thinking about Oilers hockey.

    Congrats!

  55. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure that was a factor on him staying in Canada the entire time.

    Right. It was probably his incredibly attractive gf.

  56. hunter1909 says:

    N64: Huh? We don’t even know which rounds will be 7 games. Not settled by NHL & PA.

    Without that information some bets will be as good as wasted.

    Diabolical.

    Geez you’re right.

    DEATH MARCH™ REGISTRATION SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

  57. N64 says:

    hunter1909: Geez you’re right.

    DEATH MARCH™ REGISTRATION SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

    Yep. If you can’t scrub both entries Hilmar and that other overeager contestant can always do something to mark their re-entrys.

  58. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    A quote from Judd Brackett with a bit of insight on why he’s parting ways with the Canucks:

    https://twitter.com/friedgehnic/status/1266475493915754501?s=21

    So if I read that correctly it had nothing to do with draft picks themselves but he didn’t like Benning firing some of his staff. This would line up with what I have read elsewhere.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal:
    Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl. Have a whole new great appreciation for the staff at Foothills Hospital, who got Mom and Baby home safe. It has its problems, but our healthcare system seems to do babies well.
    Things sure change on a dime but still find myself logged in here reading LTs post, thinking about Oilers hockey.

    Huge Congrats!

  60. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    dustrock:
    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    If the Oilers pick #15, do you still pick him?

    Do you pick him over someone like Zary or Jarvis?

    Ha ha Jarvis has a 73.45% EV/GF wow.

    17.45GF%Rel.Wowzers.

    Honestly, I probably would still pick him over Zary, though I MIGHT consider Mercer over Bourque (still undecided).

    The numbers aren’t a concern with Zary as he’s riding a 3.91 P1/60, a positive relGF, 4.51 shots/gm and overall impressive numbers in pretty much every way. Only mild concern in his stats is that he gets a substantial portion of his offense from the PP, but he’s good enough that I won’t doubt that he’ll get those chances in pro leagues, as well.

    My personal concern with him is three-fold:

    1.) his skating hasn’t impressed me when I’ve seen it in video. He seems to lack a separation gear that would free him up for the chances his brain seems to get him.

    2.) he seems to get a good deal of his shots from less-than-ideal positions/angles. Maybe this is biased by the highlight videos I’ve seen more recently, but he has an inordinate number of wraparounds and odd angle shots. There’s value in volume, but it can feel like it’s too much.

    3.) he just doesn’t give me the game-controlling vibe that Bourque and Mercer do. Not everyone has to be a superstar, but I’d rather shoot for a good chance at a great player than a great chance at a good player. Personal preference will vary.

    I kinda get a Nuge-ish vibe outta him in that he’s steady and not too flashy but, in my opinion, lacks the high-end offensive vision that makes Nuge the player he is. Also, the early birthday only exacerbates the aforementioned.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: How do you get 9-11? I thought it was 1-3, 12-15, 20, 30 and 31.

    I got there by not understanding fully how it would work if they lost to Chicago and didn’t win one of the three lotteries.

    Thank you to Gerta for the explanation.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: No, see Gerta Rauss’s comment above. The second lottery is only to determine which team – if any – of the 8-15 play-in loser’s get a lottery pick. It does not determine draft order and will only be held if a placeholder wins one of the top 3 picks in the initial lottery.

    As an Oiler fan with a valid argument that they should be in the Round Robin seeding as oppossed to the play-in (if done by division), I am all-for the fact that, if one of the 8-15 placeholders wins a lottery all of the play-in loses have the exact same odds in lottery 2 – Oiler and Habs would have the same odds!

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    If the imaginable did happen, I think it would be impossible not to pick Lafreniere, however, with Byfield being the better part of a year younger, with that size, speed and skill…… the thought of him an Drai on the same team intoxicates me.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    Lapierre is the one home run prospect in the first round I think.Which player is he?Is he healthy?I don’t think there’s anyway he goes in the first round, unless it’s to a team who has multiple firsts.

    I think he does go in the first round and, as you said, to a team like Ottawa or MTL with their stock of picks.

    With the depth of high skilled productive forwards, I don’t think the Oilers can afford to take the risk – yes, the payoff could be huge as he may be a top 10 talent in this draft but the Oilers can’t really afford to not hit on this pick. Show me some Mysak…..

  65. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Show me some Mysak…..

    ~ Music! How can a guy name Mysak not be LT’s pick? On second thought maybe that’s too close to the elevator kind ~

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Not a problem! There are few things I enjoy more than discussing prospects! I just recently found this site: https://pick224.com/#

    That’s precisely why Finley has me so confused. I’ve seen some suggest his good-but-not-great hockey IQ and lack of high-end skill would be his most likely limiting factors, so I can understand why some might be apprehensive to have him all too high. But not even having him in the top-122 strikes me as a bit odd.

    Oh, great, I’m not down a rabbit hole looking at AHL stats – that site is awesome.

    Thanks!

  67. VanIsleOil says:

    doritogrande,

    geowal says:
    May 29, 2020 at 9:14 am

    Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl.

    doritogrande says:
    May 29, 2020 at 12:23 pm

    Congratulations. Our first-born came to us the same day Broberg came to the Oilers

    vanisleoil says:
    …I am sure you fondly remember cuddling your brand new first born when they were burrito wrapped……. a little dorito burrito…..:)

  68. jtblack says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    “Tristen Robins kinda came outta left field for me but he has some very nice results. 3.04 P1/60, +9.84 relGF%, 3.76 shots/gm, 72% of his points at evens and led his team. Scouting reports make him sound a LOT like Yamamoto. Deceptive skater, surprising physicality, engaged in battles, attacks the net, doesn’t give up or take a night off; kinda strikes me as a mid-round Gallagher candidate! Highest ranking on EliteProspects is 55.”

    Sounds like he would be a good choice in the 3rd, 4th or 5th rounds …..

  69. jtblack says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    he’s the one player I do not want EDM to pick … and for all the reasons you said.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Interesting – McKenzie speculating about where Lafreiniere may play this fall if the NHL isn’t playing yet – or the AHL (if he’s even been drafted yet as we don’t know when the draft may be) or CHL.

    Speculating about potentially heading to Europe if the European leagues are up and running in the fall.

    Just speculation.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: Huh? We don’t even know which rounds will be 7 games. Not settled by NHL & PA.

    Without that information some bets will be as good as wasted.

    Diabolical.

    Well, we know the last two rounds will be but, yes, first two rounds still not determined!

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Material Elvis: Right.It was probably his incredibly attractive gf.

    If his gf was unattractive, would he have gone back to Europe?

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    MGM has submitted a proposal to the NHL to showcase it as a hub city (source: Jesse Grager – The Athletic.

    I think the casinos are opening up in early June so, if that doesn’t lead to major negative Covid-related issues, I think they are indeed the/a front-runner.

    Who knows if they will be if they offer up something like free hotel rooms, well, that would be a major cost-saver for the league.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Daly confirms that stats for the play-in will be considered playoff stats.

    To me, this leans towards the potential for the first real round (or first two real rounds) to be best 5 as oppossed to best of 7 (which hasn’t yet been determined).

    To me, if there are 4 best of 7 series, I wouldn’t want those play-in stats to count but, if one or two of the rounds are best of 5 then I can get on board with it a bit more.

    I would prefer the stats didn’t count and there were 4 best of 7 – like a normal playoffs.

    7+7+7+7=28
    5+5+5+7+7=29

    Seems reasonable.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skimming through Joe Smith and Sean Shapiro’s piece at The Athletic and it seems many players aren’t quite ready to make plans to return back to their team’s locals to get ready to participate in Phase 2 but what i found really interesting is that the players are given $1500 stipends to make their way back – there isn’t any plans for chartered planes from Sweden or anything like that. At least not now – I wonder if that will change for Phase 3 when players are indeed mandated back for their training camps.

  76. Bruce McCurdy says:

    OriginalPouzar: If his gf was unattractive, would he have gone back to Europe?

    If LEON DRAISAITL’s gf was unattractive, Earth would stop rotating on its axis.

    Zero point zero zero chance of either happening

  77. N64 says:

    ArmchairGM: 7+7+7+7=28
    5+5+5+7+7=29

    Seems reasonable.

    If so we’ll do 24 team playoffs in leap years? #numerology

  78. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    MGM has submitted a proposal to the NHL to showcase it as a hub city (source: Jesse Grager – The Athletic.

    I think the casinos are opening up in early June so, if that doesn’t lead to major negative Covid-related issues, I think they are indeed the/a front-runner.

    Who knows if they will be if they offer up something like free hotel rooms, well, that would be a major cost-saver for the league.

    Casinos offer freebies to gamblers. The hockey crowd won’t be gambling. I doubt free rooms will be part of the package.

    Now part of Physics folklore. Las Vegas offered the American Physical Society a deal (the MGM Grand in fact) back in the eighties for their annual conference. Big mistake on the casinos part.

    http://physicsbuzz.physicscentral.com/2015/09/one-winning-move.html

    Strange game
    https://youtu.be/MpmGXeAtWUw?t=72

  79. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    jtblack,

    Exactly my thoughts on him, though any later than the 3rd might be tough. That being said, there are always droppers.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Some could be, but others might not. We are working with the PA on this. Unlike the lockouts, when we were on different sides, this time we have been very aligned partners from the start.” Daly on prorating some stats in regard to bonuses. #NHL

    Source: Gregor

    This is not insignificant for the Oilers vis-a-vis Smith’s bonuses.

    Oilers already looking at a cap penalty of over $400K for next year due to bonuses.

  81. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Honestly, I probably would still pick him over Zary, though I MIGHT consider Mercer over Bourque (still undecided).

    The numbers aren’t a concern with Zary as he’s riding a 3.91 P1/60, a positive relGF, 4.51 shots/gm and overall impressive numbers in pretty much every way. Only mild concern in his stats is that he gets a substantial portion of his offense from the PP, but he’s good enough that I won’t doubt that he’ll get those chances in pro leagues, as well.

    My personal concern with him is three-fold:

    1.) his skating hasn’t impressed me when I’ve seen it in video. He seems to lack a separation gear that would free him up for the chances his brain seems to get him.

    2.) he seems to get a good deal of his shots from less-than-ideal positions/angles. Maybe this is biased by the highlight videos I’ve seen more recently, but he has an inordinate number of wraparounds and odd angle shots. There’s value in volume, but it can feel like it’s too much.

    3.) he just doesn’t give me the game-controlling vibe that Bourque and Mercer do. Not everyone has to be a superstar, but I’d rather shoot for a good chance at a great player than a great chance at a good player. Personal preference will vary.

    I kinda get a Nuge-ish vibe outta him in that he’s steady and not too flashy but, in my opinion, lacks the high-end offensive vision that makes Nuge the player he is. Also, the early birthday only exacerbates the aforementioned.

    Smallish players have to be plus skaters and plus skill.

    Yama was considered an excellent skater and had tenacity and skill.

    Zary is not that.

    I’m not against smallish players, I’m against any player, out of the lottery because extreme skill, that has obvious issues taken first round. Later rounds yes if talent is there.

  82. jp says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Smallish players have to be plus skaters and plus skill.

    Yama was considered an excellent skater and had tenacity and skill.

    Zary is not that.

    I’m not against smallish players, I’m against any player, out of the lottery because extreme skill, that has obvious issues taken first round. Later rounds yes if talent is there.

    I’m not arguing where Zary should be drafted, but are you considering a 6′, 180lb 18 year old “smallish”?

  83. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Smallish players have to be plus skaters and plus skill.

    Yama was considered an excellent skater and had tenacity and skill.

    Zary is not that.

    I’m not against smallish players, I’m against any player, out of the lottery because extreme skill, that has obvious issues taken first round. Later rounds yes if talent is there.

    I don’t think skating overall is the issue, just speed. He’s probably still fine. He’s also 6’0; not like he’s 5’9.

  84. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    MGM has submitted a proposal to the NHL to showcase it as a hub city (source: Jesse Grager – The Athletic.

    I think the casinos are opening up in early June so, if that doesn’t lead to major negative Covid-related issues, I think they are indeed the/a front-runner.

    Who knows if they will be if they offer up something like free hotel rooms, well, that would be a major cost-saver for the league.

    Mandalay Bay Resort is literally across the street from T-Mobile Arena.

    It has 3209 guest rooms,

    It also has its own 12000 seat arena, a massive convention centre and dozens of restaurants.

    I would think it would be the front runner.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: 7+7+7+7=28
    5+5+5+7+7=29

    Seems reasonable.

    Correct, however, 5 + 7 + 7 + 7+ 7 = 35 and that would not be.

    Personally I hope there are 4 7-game rounds as that is “normal” and, if that’s the case, I’m not on board with the stats from the play-in counting but, really, I can’t get overly fussed about something like this, in particular in this year.

  86. Lowetide says:

    geowal:
    Sitting at home cuddling with my 2.5 day old burrito wrapped little girl. Have a whole new great appreciation for the staff at Foothills Hospital, who got Mom and Baby home safe. It has its problems, but our healthcare system seems to do babies well.
    Things sure change on a dime but still find myself logged in here reading LTs post, thinking about Oilers hockey.

    Finally get a chance to say congratulations! I’ve never forgotten the exhausted joy of bringing our two kids home from the hospital. You are going to have a blast!

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: If LEON DRAISAITL’s gf was unattractive, Earth would stop rotating on its axis.

    Zero point zero zero chance of either happening

    You never know Bruce – different people like different things…….

    It appears Drai does like what most of us consider “attractive” – at least publicly…..

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Casinos offer freebies to gamblers. The hockey crowd won’t be gambling.I doubt free rooms will be part of the package.

    Now part of Physics folklore.Las Vegas offered the American Physical Society a deal (the MGM Grand in fact) back in the eighties for their annual conference.Big mistake on the casinos part.

    http://physicsbuzz.physicscentral.com/2015/09/one-winning-move.html

    Strange game
    https://youtu.be/MpmGXeAtWUw?t=72

    I wouldn’t be so sure – it would be a major financial incentive and, if Vegas wants the NHL there so bad, and I think they do…..

    Not to mention, why so certain the NHLers won’t be allowed to gamble? OEG’s bid has come with dedicated entertainment proposals, such as dedicated golf course, etc.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Mandalay Bay Resort is literally across the street from T-Mobile Arena.

    It has 3209 guest rooms,

    It also has its own 12000 seat arena, a massive convention centre and dozens of restaurants.

    I would think it would be the front runner.

    Yes, one of 3 on that corner that are MGM Grand owned I believe.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Not only does Duhatschek have Leon with the Hart, he’s got Coach T. up for the Jack Adams:

    https://theathletic.com/1845145/2020/05/29/duhatschek-notebook-expanded-hart-field-dark-horse-cup-picks-and-more/

    I’m glad I don’t have a Jack Adams ballot because I would have no logical way of separating the top four: Columbus’s John Tortorella, Philadelphia’s Alain Vigneault, Winnipeg’s Paul Maurice and Edmonton’s Dave Tippett. There are also nuanced arguments to be made on behalf of Pittsburgh’s Mike Sullivan and Vancouver’s Travis Green, among others.

  91. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Correct, however, 5 + 7 + 7 + 7+ 7 = 35 and that would not be.

    New math? 😉

  92. New Improved Darkness says:

    In tell-all documentary, doped-fuelled cycling champ Lance Armstrong does not look sorry — 29 May 2020

    I know that’s hard for young people to parse these days, but 29 May 2020 is presently TODAY!

    We had this thing, once upon a time, called a calendar. This was before we regressed to the Great Sundial in the Electronic Void of “three minutes ago”.

    For some reason, I have a mental note about everyone here simply adores Cathal Kelly.

    McDavid at risk of becoming another NHL Picasso who paints houses — many thousand dog-years ago (but not nearly enough)

    If McDavid can’t fully display his talent in Edmonton, he ought to at least be given the chance to do it for Canada.

    But based on its current view – you might call it “neither the forest nor the trees” − the NHL won’t allow that either. Right now, it’s the game’s major structural blind spot.

    It is as if the league has decided to put its greatest human resource in storage during his most productive years because it can’t yet figure out how to turn him into a huge pile of money.

    Unfortunately, hockey players do not keep like wine.

    So what does our sage sommelier from the Big Smoke have to say for himself concerning Lance?

    Armstrong still won seven consecutive Tour de Frances. It’s not as though he had access to extra-strength EPO while everyone else was doing the generic kind. Drugs or no drugs, he was still the best.

    The Rise and Sudden Fall of the Houston Astros — 18 January 2020

    “When you’d go to Houston, it always seemed like they were on pitches,” Vogt said. “As a catcher, when you see your pitcher execute a perfect slider down in the zone with two strikes and someone doesn’t even flinch at it, you start to get alarm bells going off in your head. I spent a lot of time wondering if I was doing something in my setup that would be tipping pitches to the other team.”

    You don’t think? Hey, why bother with a strike zone and that silly umpire. Just have the batters call their own pitches.

    Interestingly, one of the best series I’ve seen on baseball ran on SB Nation recently. It’s pretty much 100% of my sports diet since the lockdown. Just amazingly good in some portions, but I’m sure many people here already know that.

    The History of the Seattle Mariners, a Dorktown special — 26 March 2020

    I endured a Grammarly.com ad twice to link the complete playlist. Google runs that ad on my feed about twenty times a day.

    On my screen right now, where I paused it to cut the URL: clear communication helps. Period at the end, no capital in front. For symmetry I suppose. Underneath these words is a black guy staring straight into my soul from over top of his unbranded Apple product. He’s 24 years old, and he’s clearly never shaved a day in his life. I mean, his cheeks and chin are smooth. Tiger smooth, like on the day he got his very first Sunday-best red shirt under the xmas tree from that player he called “dad”. Like—dude!—did you just wander into the wrong advertisement, because your personal depilatory agent—if you even use one—must be some incredible distillate of termite digestive-fluid harvested from the depths of Amazon rain forest , where the word “Veet” had never yet passed the lips of mankind—at least not while milking the collective posterior ducts of Her Holinesses Charmotermitidae cottonelleus?

    Anyway, moving beyond my fixation with the product model, if I could comment on the ad using the YouTube comment facility, I’d tell them to skip sending me the software product altogether (too annoying to install) and simply send me the lapel version and a small mirror for my desk. Here’s how my lapel button would appear in my desk mirror:

    +————–+
    |__Use. ____|
    |__Fewer. __|
    |__Words. __|
    +————–+

    Originally the slogan was this: Omit. Needless. Words.

    That seemed clear enough (clarity is such a bitch) until it dawned on them that “what part of ‘needless’ do you not understand?” wouldn’t fit on a comfortable lapel button.

    But then when you write it in lowercase like that, it suddenly makes a lot more sense: “omit heedless words”. You’ve got some speck on your screen from the live goldfish you were dipping in black bean sauce to relieve the interminable tedium of social isolation. Now the penny finally drops! The ‘n’ was an ‘h’ all along!

    Back to Ken Griffey Jr. and the ill-fated Mariners, the one true rival to triskaidecadarkophobia. I hadn’t mentioned Mr Smooth yet, only somehow it seems like maybe I did. Well, accidents happen, if you’re writing bareback.

    So anyways, count me in among those who believe that Griffey maintained an honest dinger to the end of his playing days.

    Well, eventually this series has to deal with Griffey putting on one dinger of a season while Sammy Sosa was busy impersonating Saint Skin-So-Soft (hence Griffey got next to no notice while doing so). And the commentator actually says something to the effect that cheating puts the sport into sports. I did not dig that line.

    On 7 August 2010, Russian finalist and former third-place finisher Vladimir Ladyzhensky and Finnish five-time champion Timo Kaukonen passed out after six minutes of 110 °C (230 °F) heat, both suffering from terrible burns and trauma.

    According to a spectator who asked not to be identified, Kaukonen was able to leave the sauna with assistance, but Ladyzhensky had to be dragged out, and almost immediately went into cramps and convulsions.

    Ladyzhensky died despite resuscitation and Kaukonen was rushed to the hospital.

    He was reported to suffer from extreme burn injuries, and his condition was described as critical, but stable.

    Just a few minutes before the finals, Kaukonen told the Norwegian newspaper Verdens Gang that the saunas used for the 2010 championship were a lot more extreme than the saunas used for previous competitions.

    As Kaukonen and Ladyzhensky were disqualified for not leaving the sauna unaided, Ilkka Pöyhiä became the winner.

    We have a winner! Gold, silver, and bronze—if you want all three! Because the other two guys we recalled to the podium are still in the back alley, throwing up.

    Here’s how we’re going to stream our child stars of the future: with blood serology work, to determine which doping agents they can maximally consume without triggering an official drug detection. Because modern sports is all about playing it to the edge, and playing it to the edge is all about having the perfect blood profile not to optimize your oxygen flow, but to cover your tracks with oxygen scavengers.

    That guy who used to work for 3M analyzing headlight beam patterns—boy are those regulations ever strict—he’s going to cross over into sports medicine, having accidentally developed exactly the right skillset to best exploit the modern sports era.

    And with his fastidious assistance, the next Lance is going to be some guy who dialed his blood thickness up to SAE 90 gear oil and didn’t fry his bearings, blister his lines, or rupture his oil pump before exiting the sauna on his own steam.

    2,500 Cubs Fans Polled and One Thing Was Clear: They Want Sammy Sosa Back — 28 May 2020

    I been cheated by you since you know when
    So I made up my mind, it must come to an end
    Look at me now, will I ever learn?

    I don’t know how but I suddenly lose control
    There’s a fire within my soul
    Just one look and I can hear a bell ring
    One more look and I forget everything

    Mamma mia, here I go again
    My my, how can I resist you?
    Mamma mia, does it show again
    My my, just how much I’ve missed you?

    We Are the Champions as performed by Chicago Deep Dish.

  93. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “Some could be, but others might not. We are working with the PA on this. Unlike the lockouts, when we were on different sides, this time we have been very aligned partners from the start.” Daly on prorating some stats in regard to bonuses. #NHL

    Source: Gregor

    This is not insignificant for the Oilers vis-a-vis Smith’s bonuses.

    Oilers already looking at a cap penalty of over $400K for next year due to bonuses.

    I think the league may use prorating for the Neal/Lucic decision as well

    If they start using it for some things, it’s an easy decision to use it whenever necessary based on “precedent” and “consistency” and screw over the Oilers at the same time

  94. oilsnc79 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    He was is Sudbury Ontario earlier in the week shooting on a
    Young goalie. Sootoday.com

  95. N64 says:

    Gerta Rauss: I think the league may use prorating for the Neal/Lucic decision as well

    If they start using it for some things, it’s an easy decision to use it whenever necessary based on “precedent” and “consistency” and screw over the Oilers at the same time

    Screw over the Oil is always in season. But for the bonuses the PA and arb gets involved and there is precedent for pro-rata. Whereas trade conditions is a purely internal matter and the default is as written unless Gary or the GMs want to wade in. We wait.

  96. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair: Mandalay Bay Resort is literally across the street from T-Mobile Arena.

    It has 3209 guest rooms,

    It also has its own 12000 seat arena, a massive convention centre and dozens of restaurants.

    I would think it would be the front runner.

    ~ Can anyone think of a reason that location would be extremely eager to establish a new image? ~

  97. Harpers Hair says:

    N64: ~ Can anyone think of a reason that location would be extremely eager to establish a new image? ~

    Yes.

    I’m sure it’s a thing.

    Minneapolis-St. Paul may also be in the same boat.

  98. duct tape and foil says:

    Pretty easy solution to the bonus. Pro-rate the performance but no cap implications for next season. Everyone happy but the guy with the wallet I guess.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: Screw over the Oil is always in season. But for the bonuses the PA and arb gets involved and there is precedent for pro-rata. Whereas trade conditions is a purely internal matter and the default is as written unless Gary or the GMs want to wade in. We wait.

    There is no precedent with what to do with trade conditions in season stopped 85% of the way through due to a world health crisis.

    I don’t imagine the Oilers have to give up their 3rd rounder and that’s it.

    I don’t imagine the flames get nothing.

  100. Gerta Rauss says:

    N64: Screw over the Oil is always in season. But for the bonuses the PA and arb gets involved and there is precedent for pro-rata. Whereas trade conditions is a purely internal matter and the default is as written unless Gary or the GMs want to wade in. We wait.

    I took a quick look a couple days ago trying to determine how many trades may be affected by the pause

    Other than the Oilers/Neal and (maybe) the Vatanen trade, I can’t seem to find another trade wherein the outcome won’t be determined on it’s own once the season restarts

    I’m just spitballin’..that fact won’t change the league process or anything

    My first impression was that Gary would have teams lined up around the block pleading injustice and seeking redress

    I don’t think that’s the case but I’ll keep looking

  101. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Some answers about how the are going to schedule games:

    Jason Gregor

    @JasonGregor
    “It will be similar to the Olympic format. The start times will be 12 p.m., 4:30 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. most likely, and if a game goes long due to overtime, then we will have to push the start time.” Daly on schedule of play-ins. #NHL

    What time zone

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: What time zone

    I would assume that would be eastern time but neither Gregor nor Daley reached out to me to provide further details.

  103. N64 says:

    Gerta Rauss: I took a quick look a couple days ago trying to determine how many trades may be affected by the pause

    Other than the Oilers/Neal and (maybe) the Vatanen trade, I can’t seem to find another trade wherein the outcome won’t be determined on it’s own once the season restarts

    I’m just spitballin’..that fact won’t change the league process or anything

    My first impression was that Gary would have teams lined up around the block pleading injustice and seeking redress

    I don’t think that’s the case but I’ll keep looking

    Interesting. If there are more i think Gary stays away, but yeah If it’s a rifle shot maybe one of the team’s gets a comp. Conditional exchanges would be truly ugly to wade into

  104. Gerta Rauss says:

    N64: Interesting. If there are more i think Gary stays away, but yeah If it’s a rifle shot maybe one of the team’s gets a comp.Conditional exchanges would be truly ugly to wade into

    The Vatanen trade still has a chance to vest (70% of playoff games played) – Vatanen was injured at the trade deadline and has played 0 games for CAR to date

    Other than that, the Neal/Lucic trade is an outlier as far as I can see

  105. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Finley is one of my darkhorses. He’s been a leader everywhere he goes, plays a great 2-way game, more slanted to Dzone starts and still so young, a good FO man and improved on the dot as the season progressed He’s a perfect 3 C IMO. I hope the Oil pick him in the 3rd.

    His father is now the Jets as an amateur scout and was chief amateur scout (whatever that means) under Tyler Wright/Ken Holland in Det for a few years. You can bet they know a lot about the young giant.

  106. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jp: I’m not arguing where Zary should be drafted, but are you considering a 6′, 180lb 18 year old “smallish”?

    He’s not Yama smallish but that’s Nuge sized. Smaller than the average NHL player. I also think that height is a large advantage in hockey because of reach and leverage. Especially for D.

    Players lacking at least height that aren’t plus skaters are rarely top end players. De Brincat is a natural scorer but is an outlier. The Oilers have had plenty of this player type over the years.

    The main thing is Zary is quite a good player but I’m not seeing a real corker there. Add in the other things and I’d draft someone else.

  107. jp says:

    Scungilli Slushy: He’s not Yama smallish but that’s Nuge sized. Smaller than the average NHL player. I also think that height is a large advantage in hockey because of reach and leverage. Especially for D.

    Players lacking at least height that aren’t plus skaters are rarely top end players. De Brincat is a natural scorer but is an outlier. The Oilers have had plenty of this player type over the years.

    The main thing is Zary is quite a good player but I’m not seeing a real corker there. Add in the other things and I’d draft someone else.

    I agree with much of what you’ve said and don’t know the prospects well enough to argue Zary’s ranking one way or the other.

    Just saying that players generally continue to grow/fill out after age 18. He’s Nuge’s size on draft day. It’s very likely Zary plays at 6’1” 195 when he’s 24, which I believe is average for an NHL forward.

  108. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar: If his gf was unattractive, would he have gone back to Europe?

    More than likely.

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