Bullitt

During the period where I write about the draft, a theme arises out of the mist. Several emails, comments, tweets remind me that drafting someone in 2020 will be of no help for many years. Very true. Building through the draft is the worst possible approach. Except for all the others.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

Speed merchants on the wing

When Ken Holland arrived in Edmonton, he began the process of improving the team in areas that were lagging. Speed was a major priority. He signed Joakim Nygard, Gaetan Haas, drafted Philip Broberg and then acquired Andreas Athanasiou at the deadline. He’s adding speed, for now and the future, as those are things his team needs.

Let’s try this another way. Between 2010 and 2013, the Oilers drafted four right wingers with the potential to fill a scoring role (Tyler Pitlick, Nail Yakupov, Anton Slepyshev, Jackson Houck) for years to come.

Yakupov spent four years (averaged 14.5 goals per 82 games) trying to get the feeling and Anton Slepyshev had moments of clarity. Pitlick made the NHL but as a checker and Houck didn’t sign with the team.

The four picks came in four different rounds and Edmonton had a right to expect at least seven years of scoring from Yakupov, maybe a couple of years on a skill line from Pitlick and Slepyshev. Didn’t work out.

Between 2014 and 2017, Edmonton chose Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamaoto, Ostap Safin and Kirill Maksimov. That’s a lot of riches spent on one position, but Yamamoto’s emergence is one of the most encouraging outcomes in what is truly a baffling decade for right wingers procured through the draft.

Matej Blumel is the only RW drafted in the last two seasons.

Long way to get to this point: When you say “drafting someone in 2020 will be of no help for many years” the only acceptable response is “yes” because it’s obvious.

However, the work of populating the skill RW spots for the 2020-21 season should have come from the 2012-17 draft. It’s insanity that Yakupov and Puljujarvi aren’t 1-2 on the depth chart with Yamamoto pushing.

The 2020 draft is important, because 2025 needs to fed, too. That’s the job.

Immediate need

Between 2010 and 2013, the Oilers drafted left wingers Taylor Hall, Curtis Hamilton, Mitchell Moroz, Jujhar Khaira, Daniil Zharkov and Marco Roy. Based on draft selection, Edmonton had a right to expect seven years of quality from Hall (before free agency) and perhaps a year or two on skill lines from Hamilton. The team traded Hall after six seasons and have been running big enforcer types with skill since then on the portside.

Ken Holland and Dave Tippett added skill on LW in 2019-20, moving Ryan Nugent-Hopkins over and trading for Andreas Athanasiou. Edmonton also acquired a rental (Tyler Ennis) who looked productive during a short audition.

Why did Holland acquire Athanasiou? Part of the reason comes from poor drafting. Between 2014 and 2017, the Oilers drafted only Tyler Benson and Graham McPhee. Athanasiou’s acquisition was about speed, but also development time for Benson and a lack of solutions drafted in these years. Edmonton stopped drafting left wingers after 2013. Curious.

Bottom line

When people say “a player drafted in 2020 won’t help until 2025” the answer is yes, but that’s not really the conversation we should be having. A more appropriate statement would be “the lack of drafting success, added to fewer selections devoted to left wingers, made the acquisition of Athanasiou necessary. Better drafting in 2020-2023 should mean Edmonton will need fewer trades of this type in the future.”

The argument that a 2020 pick won’t help a team win in the fall of 2020 has been winning arguments on the internet since the halcyon days of hfboards. It shouldn’t be a winning argument in a case of this kind. It is not germane to the subject at hand.

Both 2020 and 2025 are priorities. The second rounders sent away for Athanasiou are what amounts to an admission of draft failure, with a $3 million dollar cap invoice attached. It was a good trade for the Oilers, but a painful one all the same.

Why would a good organization fail to draft in 2020 with an eye on 2025? They would not.

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172 Responses to "Bullitt"

  1. hunter1909 says:

    Am amazed how little credit Holland/Tippett get for turning this team around from loser to semi-upcoming contender.

    It might be me.

  2. Glovjuice says:

    Yeah, I’m not sure what all the fuss is about over Oscar. Leon is the attractive one. And, I can assure you his significant other is a stunning beauty. Probably of Eastern European decent – the most gorgeous people on earth (at least to me).

    Oh, and how “real” is the Tonight’s the Night album by Neil Young – so real.

    I’m so disappointed that Leon is gonna win major awards with an asterisk. He was winning the Art Ross in a walk so hopefully less of an asterisk – but still – a bummer.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Right in the middle of all the turmoil of that album is “New Mama” a beautiful and hopeful song.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    The draft is a time to focus on not only the present and short term but the medium and long term.

    The team has immediate needs but Ken Holland’s plan to be a contender for the Stanley Cup, year after year after year requires a pipeline of quality assets that create depth, create acquisition value and, importantly, provide potential for young value contracts where the player outperforms his cap hit (Bear, Yamamoto this past year).

  5. Clarkenstein says:

    Glovjuice:
    Yeah, I’m not sure what all the fuss is about over Oscar. Leon is the attractive one. And, I can assure you his significant other is a stunning beauty. Probably of Eastern European decent – the most gorgeous people on earth (at least to me).

    Oh, and how “real” is the Tonight’s the Night album by Neil Young – so real.

    I’m so disappointed that Leon is gonna win major awards with an asterisk. He was winning the Art Ross in a walk so hopefully less of an asterisk – but still – a bummer.

    No bummer for me. Played 90% of the schedule. It’s not like he had a one point lead over somebody who had a bunch of games in hand. The glass is half full brother!!

  6. flyfish1168 says:

    Myself I find we should be keeping our drafts until we have good prospects coming in the near term. We are a couple years from contending for stanley. Cost and control certainty should be paramount. Seattle well get a good player from us, so we need to be ready for them.

  7. defmn says:

    I’m not sure who is arguing that drafting isn’t important. In a capped league it is the only path to medium or long term success.

    The other reality of a capped league is that windows open and close due to FA and the pressure they put on filling out a winning lineup.

    As you say every trade of picks for an established player is an admission that mistakes in drafting were made in the past but it is also true that 2020 is more important to the players, coaches, GM and owner than some version of what might be in 2025 which can be derailed by long term injury, other teams better drafting, players demanding trades etc.

    A GM has to balance all of these things or he ends up with a Jack Eichel in Buffalo publicly complaining that he is frustrated with the losing or worse, Ryan O’Reilly demanding a trade out of town because his career doesn’t have 5 more years to wait.

    Edmonton has seen both of those scenarios here over the years of losing.

    So while drafting is the best path without doubt there are short term needs that may be less important but are more urgent when you are in charge of a franchise that has been mired in despair since forever.

    Balance, as always, is the path. You need to give up a little future to get a better present to make up for the failures of the past . The trick is to not give up too much and hope the hockey gods reward you for making the right choices.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gregor and Studs had Bill Daly on the Gregor show yesterday and it was a solid interview. Couple high level things:

    – Kudos to Gregor for asking Bill why they went with the conference set-up as oppossed to division as normalcy is based on division and they could do so with the same 24 teams – Daly didn’t really answer the question but gave the “we discussed alot of thing” answer. Alot about trying to resume the regular season but, in the end, not wanting it to go too long,

    – A focus is ensuring that they finish in time this year to still be able to play a full 82-game season next year. They can do that starting as late as late December

    – Looking at a min of 45-55 days of an off-season

    – players are indeed very concerned about the family issue and that is once of the reason they league has deemed the regular season over – to try and ensure this doesn’t go too long

    – they are trying to structure some sort of family access in the hub/bubble – don’t know what this will look like yet.

    – the stats from the play-in round will count as playoff stats

    – originally the structure was for the first two rounds of the “real playoffs” to be best of 5 series before going to best of 7 for the last two (in the name of keeping it shorter) but the players are discussing that and will get back to the league soon

    – after training camp and the teams to to their hubs, there will be a week before real games starts – there will be two exhibition games in there. My thought (not Daly) is that, if two teams play each other twice for the exhibition, they can form “2-team cohorts” in the hub for the purposes of government quarantine

    – looking at 3 games per day for the first round – something like noon, 4:30 and 9 – depending on time zone of the hub and where people will be watching – of course, subject to change and long OTs will bump start times.

  9. jtblack says:

    flyfish1168,

    “Seattle well get a good player from us”

    just like Vegas did 🙂

  10. John Chambers says:

    defmn,

    Draft and develop is a maxim for sustained competitiveness, no doubt.

    Regarding Buffalo, I feel their crop of drafted players should underpin a competitive team: Reinhart, Eichel, Risto, Dahlin, Cozens, and whoever they pick this year makes for a nice core. I thought Botterill has made some smart additions during his tenure: Montour, Jokiharju, Sheary, and Skinner.

    That team is in a similar spot to Edmonton a year or two ago – plenty of talent, but not enough to out-talent the league. The solution lies in playing Barry Trotz / Dave Tippett hockey – a focus on defensive team structure. That formula sustains better over 82-games and elevates the value of individual players.

    I like St Ralph but I don’t think he’s a wise enough tactician to satisfy the team’s need to compete. Unless they can markedly cut down on the GA’s they’re going to be at risk of losing Eichel.

  11. godot10 says:

    Lavoie is basically a RW. It is not just Blumel.

  12. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn:
    I’m not sure who is arguing that drafting isn’t important. In a capped league it is the only path to medium or long term success.

    The other reality of a capped league is that windows open and close due to FA and the pressure they put on filling out a winning lineup.

    As you say every trade of picks for an established player is an admission that mistakes in drafting were made in the past but it is also true that 2020 is more important to the players, coaches, GM and owner than some version of what might be in 2025 which can be derailed by long term injury, other teams better drafting, players demanding trades etc.

    A GM has to balance all of these things or he ends up with a Jack Eichel in Buffalo publicly complaining that he is frustrated with the losing or worse, Ryan O’Reilly demanding a trade out of town because his career doesn’t have 5 more years to wait.

    Edmonton has seen both of those scenarios here over the years of losing.

    So while drafting is the best path without doubt there are short term needs that may be less important but are more urgent when you are in charge of a franchise that has been mired in despair since forever.

    Balance, as always, is the path. You need to give up a little future to get a better present to make up for the failures of the past . The trick is to not give up too much and hope the hockey gods reward you for making the right choices.

    Exactly so.

    Relying completely on the draft to build a team is a painful, flawed process that exposes any team to the vagaries of development, injury, changes in the style of play.

    The Oilers have had 11 top 10 draft picks in the last 13 years and still have gaping holes in the lineup caused to a large degree by the failure of pro scouting and managers who were inept at grasping how to build a balanced team.

    Over a long enough time frame, success at the draft tends to even out so it seems to me that having a hockey operations department that understands team needs and what methods are available to fill them and, importantly, when to do so is paramount.

    Relying entirely on the draft to paper over the flaws in other processes is a fool’s errand.

  13. jtblack says:

    Connor + Leon have 10 good years left …. 2022 matters, 2025 matters, 2028 matters ..

    Draft & Develop. Rinse & Repeat.
    Draft & Develop. Rinse & Repeat.
    Draft & Develop. Rinse & Repeat.

  14. godot10 says:

    John Chambers:
    defmn,

    Draft and develop is a maxim for sustained competitiveness, no doubt.

    Regarding Buffalo, I feel their crop of drafted players should underpin a competitive team: Reinhart, Eichel, Risto, Dahlin, Cozens, and whoever they pick this year makes for a nice core. I thought Botterill has made some smart additions during his tenure: Montour, Jokiharju, Sheary, and Skinner.

    That team is in a similar spot to Edmonton a year or two ago – plenty of talent, but not enough to out-talent the league. The solution lies in playing Barry Trotz / Dave Tippett hockey – a focus on defensive team structure. That formula sustains better over 82-games and elevates the value of individual players.

    I like St Ralph but I don’t think he’s a wise enough tactician to satisfy the team’s need to compete. Unless they can markedly cut down on the GA’s they’re going to be at risk of losing Eichel.

    Both Taylor Hall and Jack Eichel had their best NHL seasons under Ralph Krueger.

    We finally get to see a year two out of Ralph.

  15. jtblack says:

    2020 Draft Edmonton currently has picks in Rounds:
    1
    3
    5
    6
    7

    I am going to assume Edm gets to keep their 3rd rounder.

    The Mike Green trade is interesting though. Currently Det gets Edmonton’s 2020 4th Round pick. BUT:

    *Conditions: The 2020 4th round pick upgrades to a 2021 3rd round pick if Edmonton advances to the Conference Final, and Green plays in 50% of the games.*

    Now that Green is Healthy, he will most likely play in over 50% of Edmonton’s playoff games (however many that will be).

    I think Edmonton has a Good Chance to make the Conference Finals (why not us?) ..

    So if the conditions are met, Edmonton will keep their 4th rounder this year.

    My point? That could be another bullet in Wright’s Scouting Chamber.

    Add in the fact, most are expecting KH to get 1 or 2 picks for JP and what currently looks like a lean # of picks, could be a Full Slate for Edmonton. WE WAIT

  16. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair,

    “Relying entirely on the draft to paper over the flaws in other processes is a fool’s errand.”

    Who is suggesting a team should rely entirely on the draft?

    Saying that the draft is important and saying a team should only rely on the draft are 2 different things.

  17. John Chambers says:

    godot10,

    Fair.

    I think there’s a trade-off between maximizing a talented individual’s performance vs overall team performance. Phil Jackson’s philosophy in Chicago made the overall team better even if MJ wasn’t scoring 60+ / game. Likewise Matthew Barzal is the top center on a playoff team instead of a top-10 scorer on a crap team.

    Kruger may elevate his star performers, but winning in the NHL comes down to limiting GA’s. I’m not sure Ralph is the man for that …

  18. defmn says:

    John Chambers:
    defmn,

    Draft and develop is a maxim for sustained competitiveness, no doubt.

    Regarding Buffalo, I feel their crop of drafted players should underpin a competitive team: Reinhart, Eichel, Risto, Dahlin, Cozens, and whoever they pick this year makes for a nice core. I thought Botterill has made some smart additions during his tenure: Montour, Jokiharju, Sheary, and Skinner.

    That team is in a similar spot to Edmonton a year or two ago – plenty of talent, but not enough to out-talent the league. The solution lies in playing Barry Trotz / Dave Tippett hockey – a focus on defensive team structure. That formula sustains better over 82-games and elevates the value of individual players.

    I like St Ralph but I don’t think he’s a wise enough tactician to satisfy the team’s need to compete. Unless they can markedly cut down on the GA’s they’re going to be at risk of losing Eichel.

    I just used Buffalo as an example of ineptness. I totally agree with the premise that a healthy, well run organization relies on the draft as its primary source for success.

    Its just that not every franchise is healthy and well run and when it isn’t urgency has a way of overruling importance.

    I was never a Krueger fan though. To me he is a ‘tournament coach’. Successful in short bursts but that ‘rah, rah’ personality grates on me and I doubt that I am the only one. I said when he was hired I doubted he would finish his third year in Buffalo and I still think that.

  19. defmn says:

    jtblack:
    Connor + Leon have 10 good years left…. 2022 matters, 2025 matters, 2028 matters ..

    Draft & Develop. Rinse & Repeat.
    Draft & Develop. Rinse & Repeat.
    Draft & Develop. Rinse & Repeat.

    All those years are important to the fans and the organization but I think the players and HC’s have a different perspective given the median timelines for their careers.

  20. Material Elvis says:

    Glovjuice:
    Yeah, I’m not sure what all the fuss is about over Oscar. Leon is the attractive one. And, I can assure you his significant other is a stunning beauty. Probably of Eastern European decent – the most gorgeous people on earth (at least to me).

    Oh, and how “real” is the Tonight’s the Night album by Neil Young – so real.

    I’m so disappointed that Leon is gonna win major awards with an asterisk. He was winning the Art Ross in a walk so hopefully less of an asterisk – but still – a bummer.

    On a scale of 1-10, she is a 12. No asterisk for Leon on that trophy.

  21. hunter1909 says:

    Clarkenstein: No bummer for me. Played 90% of the schedule. It’s not like he had a one point lead over somebody who had a bunch of games in hand. The glass is half full brother!!

    As a reluctant fan of English soccer I can attest to the experience of seeing England killed time and time again by German soccer players who, like Draisaitl take the game more seriously than anyone else to the point where it is no surprise Leon’s been skating around in Canada – when the playoffs start he’s going to resume production like it’s no big thing. That’s simply how Germans operate.

    We Oilers fans get to have the first German superstar hockey player develop in front of us. We are lucky indeed.

  22. Brantford Boy says:

    I was going to try to breakdown the teams need after a comment the other day about need on RD which I disagreed with… then I realized a much better writer already covered this subject thoroughly:
    https://theathletic.com/1837922/2020/05/28/lowetide-oilers-greatest-areas-of-need-for-the-2020-draft/

    Great article LT… forgot I had it opened and just got around to reading it… my order is a little different:
    C Mavrik Bourque, C Seth Jarvis, C Dawson Mercer, LW Lukas Reichel

    If trading down or a Puljujarvi trade can get one of the above C’s along with LW Jake Neighbours or Reichel and C Jacob Perreault in the second round I would be one happy camper.

  23. jtblack says:

    defmn: All those years are important to the fans and the organization but I think the players and HC’s have a different perspective given the median timelines for their careers.

    ok so what philosophy are you proposing? I am just curious? The Pitt model, where they trade their 1st rounder almost every year to acquire a player for the playoffs?

  24. hunter1909 says:

    jtblack: Add in the fact, most are expecting KH to get 1 or 2 picks for JP

    Hunter1909 Prediction:

    JP resumes his Oiler career asap. He’s not as stupid as people think.

  25. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack:
    Harpers Hair,

    “Relying entirely on the draft to paper over the flaws in other processes is a fool’s errand.”

    Who is suggesting a team should rely entirely on the draft?

    Saying that the draft is important and saying a team should only rely on the draft are 2 different things.

    Well, as I pointed out, the Oilers have been building through the draft for at least 13 years and yet, here we are.

    What would you point to as the reason for lack of sustained success?

  26. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair: Well, as I pointed out, the Oilers have been building through the draft for at least 13 years and yet, here we are.

    What would you point to as the reason for lack of sustained success?

    Lowe+MacT = 20 years of futility. Excellent spear carriers for a dynasty, which left the building 30 years ago; but unable to come to grips with the day to day running of a major sports organisation.

    Sather left a strong young cheap team for Lowe/MacT who gambled and lost everything in 2006 – after that it was a dark age.

    Once McDavid/Draisaitl start bringing home cups like I know they are capable of Lowe/MacT will be redeemed since MacT was the lucky s.o.b. who bagged him.

    So long as they were in charge in any way shape of form the team wasn’t being run by capable people.

    What about the past 20 years of your/the Canucks? Why did they fall apart so quickly after their single finals appearance? I always wanted Kevin Bieska on the Oilers – he had a great sense of humour but Lowe+MacT wouldn’t have wanted his free wheel style thinking… which itself gives a clue to why the Oilers floundered.

  27. Harpers Hair says:

    hunter1909: Lowe+MacT = 20 years of futility. Excellent spear carriers for a dynasty, which left the building 30 years ago; but unable to come to grips with the day to day running of a major sports organisation.

    Sather left a strong young cheap team for Lowe/MacT who gambled and lost everything in 2006 – after that it was a dark age.

    Once McDavid/Draisaitl start bringing home cups like I know they are capable of Lowe/MacT will be redeemed since MacT was the lucky s.o.b. who bagged him.

    So long as they were in charge in any way shape of form the team wasn’t being run by capable people.

    What about the past 20 years of your/the Canucks? Why did they fall apart so quickly after their single finals appearance? I always wanted Kevin Bieska on the Oilers – he had a great sense of humour but Lowe+MacT wouldn’t have wanted his free wheel style thinking… which itself gives a clue to why the Oilers floundered.

    It will be fascinating to watch the Oilers and Canucks evolve over the next few years.

    The Canucks peaked in 2011 and should have embarked on a rebuild then but didn’t because ownership mandated they keep on trying to win.

    It cost Mike Gillis and Lawrence Gilman their jobs.

    They continued on that flawed path until the Sedins retired in 2018 and appear to have turned things around pretty quickly although much work remains.

    The trade for JT Miller indicates they believe the “build from the draft” phase is over.

    We’ll see.

  28. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair: Well, as I pointed out, the Oilers have been building through the draft for at least 13 years and yet, here we are.

    What would you point to as the reason for lack of sustained success?

    IMO the draft is very important. But the draft on it’s own is not a gurantee of success.

    Like any Organization in business or sports, there are many layers that contribute to success.

    Ownership
    Management Team
    Management Philosophy
    Coaching group
    Coaching Philosphy
    Amateur Scouting
    Drafting
    Pro Scouting
    Contract Management
    Cap Management

    Edmonton has certainly not been the model team for any of that ….But that is also (finally) changing due to some quality drafting over the middle part of the decade …

    To me the Good Teams build their core through the draft, develop players well from ALL rounds and make quality trades, have sound Management Teams and that leads to consistent performance …

  29. Klima's_Bucket says:

    “The second rounders sent away for Athanasiou are what amounts to an admission of draft failure, with a $3 million dollar cap invoice attached.”

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the Oilers had drafted well in 2015, would the player not have a similar cap invoice attached?

  30. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair,

    what do you think of them releasing one of their main scouts recently?

  31. jtblack says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    “The second rounders sent away for Athanasiou are what amounts to an admission of draft failure, with a $3 million dollar cap invoice attached.”

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the Oilers had drafted well in 2015, would the player not have a similar cap invoice attached?

    yes, but you are missing the 3 years of Entry Level $$ Labor ….

    any time you trade for an established player or have a player past Entry Level, they are going to get paid .. The best chance at having AN IMPACT player for cheap $$ is when they are on their Entry Level deal ..

  32. oilersfan says:

    Lowe and Mctavish get the blame, which they deserve, but their biggest mistakes were not firing the scouts . prendergaet is the single biggest reason for the decade of darkness followed only by stu “the mediocre bastard” Macgregor. Greene and Gretzky have been much better and I am a bit worried that Tyler Wright came in to fix what wasn’t broken.

    One thing I don’t like about the Chiarelli era drafting was the over focus on defence men and goalies. We can only have six goalies in the system and the team needs twice as many forwards as defensemen so why were 80% of the skaters drafted in that era defence men. ??? Also, for all
    The picks used to select goalies when was the last time a goalie drafted by the oilers had an impact for the parent club? I’m pretty sure it was Devan Dubnyk in 2004. 15 years later let’s stop
    Wasting the picks on goalies and simply use them to trade for an older , more
    Established goalie prospect that is crowded out in Somebody else’s system.

  33. Victoria Oil says:

    jtblack:
    flyfish1168,

    “Seattle well get a good player from us”

    just like Vegas did 🙂

    Vegas got our 16th and 33rd picks from the 2015 draft.

  34. jtblack says:

    Yamamoto last year. $894,000

    Bear last year. $720,000

    Cheap labour. Impactful players. Via the draft. The trick for Edmonton is to keep them coming

  35. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Harpers Hair,

    As someone that lives in Vancouver and hears plenty of Canuck talk, I still see the Canucks as having too many holes to fill to keep up with the Oilers particularly on the backend.

    Their top end forward talent is not as top end as Edmonton’s and the D isn’t as deep.

  36. jtblack says:

    Victoria Oil: Vegas got our 16th and 33rd picks from the 2015 draft.

    That is called slight of hand ….

    you view the Trade Tree in anyway that makes you happy.

  37. Victoria Oil says:

    defmn: I just used Buffalo as an example of ineptness. I totally agree with the premise that a healthy, well run organization relies on the draft as its primary source for success.

    Its just that not every franchise is healthy and well run and when it isn’t urgency has a way of overruling importance.

    I was never a Krueger fan though. To me he is a ‘tournament coach’. Successful in short bursts but that ‘rah, rah’ personality grates on me and I doubt that I am the only one. I said when he was hired I doubted he would finish his third year in Buffalo and I still think that.

    You may or may not be right about Krueger. But would you trade him for Dallas Eakins?

  38. Klima's_Bucket says:

    jtblack,

    Who from the 2015 second round provides similar value to Athanasiou up front for a similar or less cap hit?

  39. Lowetide says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    “The second rounders sent away for Athanasiou are what amounts to an admission of draft failure, with a $3 million dollar cap invoice attached.”

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but if the Oilers had drafted well in 2015, would the player not have a similar cap invoice attached?

    After three or four inexpensive seasons, yes. You need inexpensive, value players, usually in their entry deals.

  40. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide,

    Right, forgot about sliding ELC’s

  41. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack:
    Harpers Hair,

    what do you think of them releasing one of their main scouts recently?

    I think it may cost them but it’s a very nuanced situation.
    https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/ed-willes-bracketts-power-play-for-autonomy-costs-canucks-star-scout-his-job

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909:
    Am amazed how little credit Holland/Tippett get for turning this team around from loser to semi-upcoming contender.

    It might be me.

    I think its you.

    Tippett is mentioned in many circles for coach of the year.

    Holland is given plenture of due as well.

    In my opinion.

  43. Harpers Hair says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Harpers Hair,

    As someone that lives in Vancouver and hears plenty of Canuck talk, I still see the Canucks as having too many holes to fill to keep up with the Oilers particularly on the backend.

    Their top end forward talent is not as top end as Edmonton’s and the D isn’t as deep.

    Very different team structures.

    Agree that the Oilers top two forwards are at a higher level both in terms of ability but also cap hits while the Canucks have much better forward depth and balance.

    No doubt the Oilers D depth is better and that will be the Canucks weakness until they fix it but starting that process with a true #1D in Quinn Hughes will help.

  44. defmn says:

    jtblack: ok so what philosophy are you proposing?I am just curious? The Pitt model, where they trade their 1st rounder almost every year to acquire a player for the playoffs?

    Not at all. Edmonton isn’t in a position to be trading their 1st rounder while they still have holes and insufficient talent on the farm.

    I answered this question in my first post today. Balance. To me KH’s trade for AA was a perfect example. There was a hole on LW in the top six and he didn’t see an answer he could count on in Bakersfield so he gave up some future potential for what he hopes is an immediate fix.

    The fix has risk because AA has flaws but the two 2nd rounders have risk as we know by all the posts on chances of success for mid to late round guys in the second round. He took a balanced chance.

    If he ends up trading Benning for a late 2nd rounder from a position that he is more comfortable filling through FA or the farm he is halfway home.

    And he kept his 1st rounder who the odds say is more likely to make an impact when he is ready.

    Nobody is saying that drafting is unimportant. Since the cap was introduced I would say it has replaced trading as the most important part of building a winning team. And I agree with our host that every time you trade a 1st or 2nd rounder for an established player you are silently admitting that a bet made a few years earlier didn’t pay off.

    But that is why bad teams are bad teams – bad decisions made at an earlier point in time – and as I said, in business you sometimes have to sacrifice ‘importance’ for ‘urgency’ because urgency has a whole magnitude of factors that sometimes override doing the smartest thing because if you don’t fix the urgent problem you will never last long enough to reap the benefits of doing the best thing.

    Pittsburgh – and Detroit for a long, long time – would trad late first rounders because they thought they had all the important pieces in place already so they could delay drafting replacements in order to take another shot at the cup. To me this makes sense as well. But the OIlers are not there yet. They have a glaring hole at 3C, a risk at top six LW, a rookie at RD that looked good but is a rookie, and in goal we still have questions – or at least some of us do. And the farm is not bursting with prospects.

    To me that means the team still needs its 1st rounder for another year or two. But they also need the guys who are here to feel hope that they have a chance.

    Balance.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168:
    Myself I find we should be keeping our drafts until we have good prospects coming in the near term. We are a couple years from contending for stanley. Cost and control certainty should be paramount. Seattle well get a good player from us, so we need to be ready for them.

    I agree about keeping our picks and transactions must have the expansion draft in mind (i.e. trading an expansion draft asset out should only done with great diligence and meaning) but I don’t necessarily agree that the team is a few years away from contending – necessarily.

    I think they can contend right here and right now – they have extreme depth. Sure, legit 3C is needed, in my opinion, to be classified as an upper tier contender, and maybe one more legit top 6 winger but they have high end skill and extreme depth – that can win championships with tending and a bit of luck.

  46. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think its you.

    Tippett is mentioned in many circles for coach of the year.

    Holland is given plenture of due as well.

    In my opinion.

    Obviously your circles are larger than mine are.

  47. defmn says:

    Victoria Oil: You may or may not be right about Krueger. But would you trade him for Dallas Eakins?

    No.

  48. John Chambers says:

    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Hypothetically if there is a compliance buyout and the Canucks hit a Homerun in free agency and get Pietrangelo or Krug then I could see them challenging for the division.

    Instead they’ll probably fork over the dollars to BC boy Tyson Barrie, and rue the contract within 18 months of it being signed.

    Add in Raffery and BAM … Stanley Cup!

  49. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: I think it may cost them but it’s a very nuanced situation.
    https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/ed-willes-bracketts-power-play-for-autonomy-costs-canucks-star-scout-his-job

    We discussed this earlier and I think we agreed that Benning gets to shoulder most of the blame. When I read the article I noted that he talks about offering a two year extension but we know from other articles that there was no raise offered.

    To me that is the crucial tell. Benning wanted him gone.

  50. Harpers Hair says:

    John Chambers:
    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Hypothetically if there is a compliance buyout and the Canucks hit a Homerun in free agency and get Pietrangelo or Krug then I could see them challenging for the division.

    Instead they’ll probably fork over the dollars to BC boy Tyson Barrie, and rue the contract within 18 months of it being signed.

    Add in Raffery and BAM … Stanley Cup!

    They’ve been linked to Barrie before but the emergence of Hughes should give them pause.

    Barrie’s value comes mostly from the PP and Hughes has locked down the #1PP D so Barrie would be shunted to the second unit where I doubt he would provide value.

    I expect the UFA market this offseason will be very muted with many players taking bridge deals at discounted prices so it’s very difficult to guess where they will end up.

  51. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: We discussed this earlier and I think we agreed that Benning gets to shoulder most of the blame. When I read the article I noted that he talks about offering a two year extension but we know from other articles that there was no raise offered.

    To me that is the crucial tell. Benning wanted him gone.

    Yeah, I think so.

    The tell for me was Benning firing two amateur scouts without any input from Brackett.

    It seems Benning was pissing on the shrubs.

  52. defmn says:

    Lowetide: After three or four inexpensive seasons, yes. You need inexpensive, value players, usually in their entry deals.

    You might get three years out of a top 5 pick but for late 1st round or 2nd round players I look at the trajectory of Benson or Yakomoto.

    The Oilers will get an inexpensive season and a half out of Yamomoto and they might get a year out of Benson if he makes the team out of camp next year.

    The way I see the pay structure evolving in the NHL under the cap is that there are 12 positions that cost money and the rest are contracts that have to come in under $2M max- half of those have to cost less than 1.3M.

    If Benson snags one of those top six wing jobs he will cost money. If he doesn’t he wont.

    The Oilers might get 2 inexpensive years out of Bouchard but one and a half is just as likely.

    I don’t think RFA’s for skill positions are signing the value contracts that they used to and teams seems happy to lock them in if they think they are long term solutions.

  53. digger50 says:

    jtblack: left

    JT, are you sure They have 10 good years left?

    I’m not so sure.

    Someone else mentioned the Oilers are not co tenders for two more years. Why not? If you have the two top scorers in the league and cannot contend, what the heck is wrong with you?

    You draft till you get lucky. You select impact players, you cobble together a core group somehow then you must switch tactics. Draft still important but opportunity forces a switch of tactics, this is my belief.

    There are no perfect rosters. And as we getter better for 2023, other players drop off.

    I love the lowetide for draft coverage, it’s educational and makes it exciting. Last year I would have traded the first to get that o e good top six forward. If we pencel in JT Miller in for example, then add Yamamoto I felt it was worth it. And we would be without Broberg which I could live with.

    This year I’m not for trading the pick at all. But the seconds for AA I’m okay with. I think Holland will add again but can only afford incremental help. Jessie is an asset that might now pay off. Hope so as that was such a disappointment.

    Great read today.

  54. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Yeah, I think so.

    The tell for me was Benning firing two amateur scouts without any input from Brackett.

    It seems Benning was pissing on the shrubs.

    Mediocre men are all the same. They fear talent will cause them harm.

  55. jtblack says:

    defmn: You might get three years out of a top 5 pick but for late 1st round or 2nd round players I look at the trajectory of Benson or Yakomoto.

    The Oilers will get an inexpensive season and a half out of Yamomoto and they might get a year out of Benson if he makes the team out of camp next year.

    The way I see the pay structure evolving in the NHL under the cap is that there are 12 positions that cost money and the rest are contracts that have to come in under $2M max- half of those have to cost less than 1.3M.

    If Benson snags one of those top six wing jobs he will cost money. If he doesn’t he wont.

    The Oilers might get 2 inexpensive years out of Bouchard but one and a half is just as likely.

    I don’t think RFA’s for skill positions are signing the value contracts that they used to and teams seems happy to lock them in if they think they are long term solutions.

    That year and a half for Yakomoto was found money … Great value.

    Benson is a wildcard, but let’s say he’s a middling contributor next season. The reality is he will not sign a big $$ contract. So Edm will probably get him for another 2 – 5 years below $2 Mil / per ..

    The point is there is no way to trade for a Veteran with a proven track record of scoring, for cheap.
    unless you make an astute trade like Pat Maroon.

  56. Harpers Hair says:

    digger50: JT, are you sure They have 10 good years left?

    I’m not so sure.

    Someone else mentioned the Oilers are not co tenders for two more years. Why not? If you have the two top scorers in the league and cannot contend, what the heck is wrong with you?

    You draft till you get lucky. You select impact players, you cobble together a core group somehow then you must switch tactics. Draft still important but opportunity forces a switch of tactics, this is my belief.

    There are no perfect rosters. And as we getter better for 2023, other players drop off.

    I love the lowetide for draft coverage, it’s educational and makes it exciting. Last year I would have traded the first to get that o e good top six forward. If we pencel in JT Miller in for example, then add Yamamoto I felt it was worth it. And we would be without Broberg which I could live with.

    This year I’m not for trading the pick at all. But the seconds for AA I’m okay with. I think Holland will add again but can only afford incremental help. Jessie is an asset that might now pay off. Hope so as that was such a disappointment.

    Great read today.

    Yes.

    And the timing of when to “switch tactics” is a crucial component of success.

    It’s my belief the Oilers should have done this at the last draft but instead drafted another D.

    While they can still deal a D from a position of strength, the process has been delayed by at least one season.

  57. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think its you.

    Tippett is mentioned in many circles for coach of the year.

    Holland is given plenture of due as well.

    In my opinion.

    The Jack Adams Trophy is cursed. I hope Tippett doesn’t win it.

  58. jtblack says:

    digger50: JT, are you sure They have 10 good years left?

    I’m not so sure.

    Someone else mentioned the Oilers are not co tenders for two more years. Why not? If you have the two top scorers in the league and cannot contend, what the heck is wrong with you?

    You draft till you get lucky. You select impact players, you cobble together a core group somehow then you must switch tactics. Draft still important but opportunity forces a switch of tactics, this is my belief.

    There are no perfect rosters. And as we getter better for 2023, other players drop off.

    I love the lowetide for draft coverage, it’s educational and makes it exciting. Last year I would have traded the first to get that o e good top six forward. If we pencel in JT Miller in for example, then add Yamamoto I felt it was worth it. And we would be without Broberg which I could live with.

    This year I’m not for trading the pick at all. But the seconds for AA I’m okay with. I think Holland will add again but can only afford incremental help. Jessie is an asset that might now pay off. Hope so as that was such a disappointment.

    Great read today.

    You never know how long Connor and Leon will be elite, but if you factor today’s training, nutrition and overall body care; judging by other Superstars, they have 10+ years left. Sid, Gino and Ovie just finished 15th, 15th and 16th seasons. All were 1 PPG or better …. I think McD & Drai are in that class ..

    I think Edm are contenders now. In this playoffs. Their window starts now and hopefully it runs for a decade. KH said he was trying to build an annual contender.

    Here is my favorite model.
    https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00008871.html

    Drafted 13 of their 16 1st Round picks since Ovechkin arrived. They have made a few trades and signed some FA’s as well, but the core of their team is from drafting and developing well. They have been contenders for a decade, so they didn’t sacrifice winning in the present (2009, 2012, 2015), all the while continuing to add key pieces to their team.

    The 2020 Draft is 5 years after Connor was drafted. For Wash Kuznetsov was drafted 6 years after Ovie. Tom Wilson 8 years after Ovie.

    As far as the JT Miller trade. It has proved excellent for Van thus far. And yes, if Edmonton knew they were getting a JT Miller, hindsight tells us almost every GM would consider that trade. But the flip side is few people predicted Miller would be as Good a fit as he has been. He’s been outstanding.

  59. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree about keeping our picks and transactions must have the expansion draft in mind (i.e. trading an expansion draft asset out should only done with great diligence and meaning) but I don’t necessarily agree that the team is a few years away from contending – necessarily.

    I think they can contend right here and right now – they have extreme depth. Sure,legit 3C is needed, in my opinion, to be classified as an upper tier contender, and maybe one more legit top 6 winger but they have high end skill and extreme depth – that can win championships with tending and a bit of luck.

    OP, Thanks

    You maybe right. I was wondering if anyone else would come up with our teams timeline of contention.

  60. jp says:

    godot10: Both Taylor Hall and Jack Eichel had their best NHL seasons under Ralph Krueger.

    We finally get to see a year two out of Ralph.

    I don’t mean to argue against Kruger. It will be good to see a 2nd season from him. But 2013 was not Taylor Hall’s best season.

  61. jtblack says:

    flyfish1168: OP, Thanks

    You maybe right. I was wondering if anyone else would come up with our teams timeline of contention.

    IMO they are contenders Right Now. I agree with OP.

    When play was halted:

    Edmonton was 4th in the West for pts.

    Edmonton was 9th in the NHL for pts.

    Edmonton had (has) the Top 2 scorers in the League.

    Edmonton has 2 scoring lines. Added 3 pieces at the deadline. Have 2 Good Goalies.

    They are a Contender Right Now.

    and with KH at the helm, they *should* continue to get stronger and better and be a consistent Top 8 team in the League for the foreseeable future,

  62. defmn says:

    jtblack: That year and a half for Yakomoto was found money … Great value.

    Benson is a wildcard, but let’s say he’s a middling contributor next season. The reality is he will not sign a big $$ contract.So Edm will probably get him for another 2 – 5 years below $2 Mil / per ..

    The point is there is no way to trade for a Veteran with a proven track record of scoring, for cheap.unless you make an astute trade like Pat Maroon.

    When you have two elite centres like the OIlers have now you should be able to outscore most other teams. With a good 3C you should be able to saw off against other teams. That is what the Oilers are aiming for imo.

    Other rosters require different configurations but really all the Oilers need is about 12 goals each from their third liners. That is not going to cost a fortune and in many off seasons there are veterans waiting for a contract that can provide that on a one year deal.

    For me you need to pay your top six, your 3C, top two pairings and your starting goalie. A competent GM should be able to find the other 11 players for reasonable contracts even if he needs to go the FA route and if money is tight he waits for the TD and touches up. It is your top 12 that are the core and unless the bottom end is totally incompetent (and, yes, we have seen that too) you should make the playoffs every year.

    The OIlers are close and have the advantage of two extraordinarily talented players to compensate to some degree.

  63. Georges says:

    “Both 2020 and 2025 are priorities. The second rounders sent away for Athanasiou are what amounts to an admission of draft failure, with a $3 million dollar cap invoice attached. It was a good trade for the Oilers, but a painful one all the same.”

    An admission of draft failure…? A good but painful trade?

    What do you think the odds are of getting a forward like AA in the 2nd round? Or any impact player?

    AA is a better bet for both 2020 and 2025 priorities than 2 upcoming second round picks. Isn’t that obvious?

    Also, roster construction has much more going on than just draft and develop. Typically, the majority of skaters on a team are players the team didn’t draft. PIT is a good example. They’ve picked up quite a few players outside of the draft. Less than half of NHL skaters in 2019-20 were skating with the team that drafted them. It’s about a 40-60 split across the league.

  64. Lowetide says:

    Georges:
    “Both 2020 and 2025 are priorities. The second rounders sent away for Athanasiou are what amounts to an admission of draft failure, with a $3 million dollar cap invoice attached. It was a good trade for the Oilers, but a painful one all the same.”

    An admission of draft failure…? A good but painful trade?

    What do you think the odds are of getting a forward like AA in the 2nd round? Or any impact player?

    AA is a better bet for both 2020 and 2025 priorities than 2 upcoming second round picks. Isn’t that obvious?

    Also, roster construction has much more going on than just draft and develop. Typically, the majority of skaters on a team are players the team didn’t draft. PIT is a good example. They’ve picked up quite a few players outside of the draft. Less than half of NHL skaters in 2019-20 were skating with the team that drafted them. It’s about a 40-60 split across the league.

    Pittsburgh is often used as an example but the Penguins are consistent winners and have been able to sign/poach college free agents/draft picks that won’t sign. It’s their advantage and full credit to them for using it effectively.

    Edmonton needs to make the draft their strength.

    As for finding AA in the second round, chances of getting a contributor increases greatly when you have your actual second round pick.

  65. jtblack says:

    Georges,

    “Typically, the majority of skaters on a team are players the team didn’t draft. PIT is a good example.”

    I would counter that by suggesting that the Majority of CORE players are drafted by the team they play on. PIT is also a Great example of that. Malkin, Crosby, Guentzel, Rust, Letang, Murray.

  66. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: When you have two elite centres like the OIlers have now you should be able to outscore most other teams. With a good 3C you should be able to saw off against other teams. That is what the Oilers are aiming for imo.

    Other rosters require different configurations but really all the Oilers need is about 12 goals each from their third liners. That is not going to cost a fortune and in many off seasons there are veterans waiting for a contract that can provide that on a one year deal.

    For me you need to pay your top six, your 3C, top two pairings and your starting goalie. A competent GM should be able to find the other 11 players for reasonable contracts even if he needs to go the FA route and if money is tight he waits for the TD and touches up. It is your top 12 that are the core and unless the bottom end is totally incompetent (and, yes, we have seen that too) you should make the playoffs every year.

    The OIlers are close and have the advantage of two extraordinarily talented players to compensate to some degree.

    Do you think the Oilers historically high PP percentage is sustainable?

    Without it, the Oilers not outscoring at evens.

  67. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Oilers coach Dave Tippett’s track record in developing young players

    https://theathletic.com/1842869/2020/05/30/lowetide-oilers-coach-dave-tippetts-track-record-in-developing-young-players/

  68. defmn says:

    Lowetide: Pittsburgh is often used as an example but the Penguins are consistent winners and have been able to sign/poach college free agents/draft picks that won’t sign. It’s their advantage and full credit to them for using it effectively.

    Edmonton needs to make the draft their strength.

    As for finding AA in the second round, chances of getting a contributor increases greatly when you have your actual second round pick.

    Boston is another team that I think makes a contribution to the discussion.

    They had 3 first round picks at 13, 14, 15 and struck out on two and got a double? with DeBrusk.

    7 picks in the first 75. Five of them were duds but the Bruins picked up a Carlo in the second round and came out OK.

    The thing is, though, that Boston didn’t need 3 or 4 hits. They had most of their core positions already covered for the next 3 or 4 years so they just kept trucking.

    The Oilers are not that. They still need to fill some of those positions and the farm team is not flush. The other side of the discussion, though, is what has already been said. The Oilers need to prove to the guys here now that they want to win with them. That the heart of their careers won’t be sacrificed because of bad management in the past.

    To me this is the tightrope that Holland is walking and so far I am impressed. More picks are good but winning creates advantages in terms of free agent signings and happy players.

  69. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack:
    Georges,

    “Typically, the majority of skaters on a team are players the team didn’t draft. PIT is a good example.”

    I would counter that by suggesting that the Majority of CORE players are drafted by the team they play on.PIT is also a Great example of that.Malkin, Crosby, Guentzel, Rust, Letang, Murray.

    All drafted many years ago.

    The only Pittsburgh draft pick in the last five years to play 100 games in the NHL is Dominik Simon… drafted in the 5th round in 2015.

    Obviously the Pens are doing something else.

  70. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Do you think the Oilers historically high PP percentage is sustainable?

    Without it, the Oilers not outscoring at evens.

    I think that as long as you can put McDavid & Draisaitl out there on the PP you are always going to have a good PP but, no, it is not a strategy you should count on if you want to be a legitimate contender year after year. The Oilers need to fix their GA when the top two lines are off the ice and I think they took some steps this year but this team is not a finished product.

  71. JimmyV1965 says:

    John Chambers:
    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Hypothetically if there is a compliance buyout and the Canucks hit a Homerun in free agency and get Pietrangelo or Krug then I could see them challenging for the division.

    Instead they’ll probably fork over the dollars to BC boy Tyson Barrie, and rue the contract within 18 months of it being signed.

    Add in Raffery and BAM … Stanley Cup!

    Signing Petro for seven years at $9 mill would be a huge mistake as well.

  72. godot10 says:

    jp: I don’t mean to argue against Kruger. It will be good to see a 2nd season from him. But 2013 was not Taylor Hall’s best season.

    The Western Conference was the dominant conference. There were no crossover games with the east. Hall finished 2nd in the scoring race in the Western Conference.

  73. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair: All drafted many years ago.

    The only Pittsburgh draft pick in the last five years to play 100 games in the NHL is Dominik Simon… drafted in the 5th round in 2015.

    Obviously the Pens are doing something else.

    in the last 5 years, the Edmonton Oilers have exactly 2 players to play 100+ games.

    McDavid and Puljujarvi. so not sure why that metric matters?

  74. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georges:
    “Both 2020 and 2025 are priorities. The second rounders sent away for Athanasiou are what amounts to an admission of draft failure, with a $3 million dollar cap invoice attached. It was a good trade for the Oilers, but a painful one all the same.”

    An admission of draft failure…? A good but painful trade?

    What do you think the odds are of getting a forward like AA in the 2nd round? Or any impact player?

    AA is a better bet for both 2020 and 2025 priorities than 2 upcoming second round picks. Isn’t that obvious?

    Also, roster construction has much more going on than just draft and develop. Typically, the majority of skaters on a team are players the team didn’t draft. PIT is a good example. They’ve picked up quite a few players outside of the draft. Less than half of NHL skaters in 2019-20 were skating with the team that drafted them. It’s about a 40-60 split across the league.

    Nice post. The odds are not good that two late second round picks will ever be as good as AA. Maybe he never rebounds and never scores 25 again, but that’s unlikely as well.

    As an aside, if I was a GM I would use 90% of my first round picks on forwards and find my dmen in rounds 2-7.

  75. JimmyV1965 says:

    defmn: I think that as long as you can put McDavid & Draisaitl out there on the PP you are always going to have a good PP but, no, it is not a strategy you should count on if you want to be a legitimate contender year after year. The Oilers need to fix their GA when the top two lines are off the ice and I think they took some steps this year but this team is not a finished product.

    Don’t forget RNH He is a huge part of the PP. I think it’s the best part of his game, even though he’s great on the PK.

  76. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair: Do you think the Oilers historically high PP percentage is sustainable?
    Without it, the Oilers not outscoring at evens.

    Please Harpers Hair, this trolling passive aggressiveness is yet going to blow up in your hands.

    Example: I just found a blog that is full of opinions which run counter to yours. From people who live close enough for you to know.

    Not everyone loves Victoria/Vancouver island. $400 to move 1 car and 1 person off the island sounds scary. Do people who live in Victoria save up to leave? Are there $400 gift certificates with pictures of Ferries on them?

    Gare du Nord to Cannes by high speed train seems like a more civilized solution.

  77. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair: Obviously the Pens are doing something else.

    Not sure what the Pens have been doing but running Crosby Malkin and Letang aren’t a bad opening gambit.

  78. hunter1909 says:

    JimmyV1965: As an aside, if I was a GM I would use 90% of my first round picks on forwards and find my dmen in rounds 2-7

    Interesting. Would everyone know this as common knowlege, like you share this with us now?

  79. hunter1909 says:

    defmn: The OIlers are close and have the advantage of two extraordinarily talented players to compensate to some degree.

    Oilers are practically running the equivalent of Bobby Orr playing centre behind Jean Beliveau. This is clearly more than “some degree” lol

  80. hunter1909 says:

    JimmyV1965: Don’t forget RNHHe is a huge part of the PP. I think it’s the best part of his game, even though he’s great on the PK.

    The good news is RNH should stay unless he’s greedy and if so then fine no sweat etc he’s no Mcdavid/Draisaitl either

  81. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909: Please Harpers Hair, this trolling passive aggressiveness is yet going to blow up in your hands.

    Example: I just found a blog that is full of opinions which run counter to yours. From people who live close enough for you to know.

    Not everyone loves Victoria/Vancouver island. $400 to move 1 car and 1 person off the island sounds scary. Do people who live in Victoria save up to leave? Are there $400 gift certificates with pictures of Ferries on them?

    I would buy GC’s with pictures of ferries on them.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    Yamamoto last year.$894,000

    Bear last year.$720,000

    Cheap labour. Impactful players. Via the draft.The trick for Edmonton is to keep them coming

    Yup, and for next season:

    Yamamoto: $894K
    Jones: $850K
    Bouchard: $894K (potential for $1.6 if bonuses are hit)
    Benson: $808K – hopefully

    Also, Bear was actually $740K – he hit his $20K bonus which will be part of a non-nominal bonus overage penalty for next season at over $400K (which could increase if they pro-rate Mike Smith’s games played and if he hits playoff bonuses….).

  83. defmn says:

    hunter1909: Oilers are practically running the equivalent of Bobby Orr playing centre behind Jean Beliveau. This is clearly more than “some degree” lol

    I’m known for my mastery of the understatement. 😉

  84. N64 says:

    Victoria Oil: Vegas got our 16th and 33rd picks from the 2015 draft.

    You’d think Vegas would know the value of scratched tickets. If I recall the other option was only JK. Panthers would have killed to offer up so little.

  85. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, and for next season:

    Yamamoto: $894K
    Jones: $850K
    Bouchard: $894K (potential for $1.6 if bonuses are hit)
    Benson: $808K – hopefully

    Also, Bear was actually $740K – he hit his $20K bonus which will be part of a non-nominal bonus overage penalty for next season at over $400K (which could increase if they pro-rate Mike Smith’s games played and if he hits playoff bonuses….).

    All true. But you don’t get 3-4 years of that very often which was the beginning of that particular discussion. I think 2 years is probably closer.

  86. N64 says:

    Victoria Oil: Vegas got our 16th and 33rd picks from the 2015 draft.

    You’d think Vegas would know the value of scratched tickets. If I recall the other option was only JK. Panthers would have killed to offer up so little.

  87. N64 says:

    hunter1909,

    If I recalt the Gulf Islands let you leave for free. Van Island you gotta pay

  88. jtblack says:

    defmn: All true. But you don’t get 3-4 years of that very often which was the beginning of that particular discussion. I think 2 years is probably closer.

    my understanding of the particular discussion was the value of quality players on ELC (cheap labor) and the ability to keep them coming year after year ….. vs. trading for established players like AA who are already paid at market price …

    of course, every team needs a mix; but in a CAP world, having cheap impacting labor can be the difference for teams … it can be argued that Edmonton’s great season, was in large part due to the Emergence of Bear and then Yamamoto. Huge factors in the overall success. They had a Top 4 D man who most thought would be in the AHL, playing for $740,000 and they had a Top 6 RW who nobody thought would be a ppg player or if he would even make the team this year, for $894,000.

    Huge huge huge impact.

  89. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Sean Day waived unconditionally by the Rangers.

    His physical tools resulted in early dominance, but his hockey IQ never caught up. Sometimes when yhings are too easy too early, you end up not knowing what hard work and dedication is and for many, like Day, it ends up biting you in the ass. Too bad, his skating looks like Paul Coffey’s; Day is the only other player that I’ve seen that can skate like that.

    I wonder if anyone thinks he’s worthwhile to pick him up, I doubt it very much.

  90. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Harpers Hair: Do you think the Oilers historically high PP percentage is sustainable?

    Without it, the Oilers not outscoring at evens.

    Certainly a concern to be aware of, but also one that was somewhat ameliorated by the Yamo-callup. From Dec 31st on, the Oilers were 84-77 at evens. The Nuge-Drai-Yamo line also ran unsustainably hot, but McDavid’s line ran colder during that time as well, so I think those will correct enough to balance a fair deal.

    Lastly, adding some offense to the bottom six will help those minutes come closer to being sawed-off (even just ~45% goal share would do wonders) than they were last season. Retaining Ennis and AA and focusing acquisition efforts on a 3C should achieve that.

  91. Pescador says:

    John Chambers:
    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Hypothetically if there is a compliance buyout and the Canucks hit a Homerun in free agency and get Pietrangelo or Krug then I could see them challenging for the division.

    Instead they’ll probably fork over the dollars to BC boy Tyson Barrie, and rue the contract within 18 months of it being signed.

    Add in Raffery and BAM … Stanley Cup!

    Why city council insists on including East Hastings as part of the parade route, I will never understand.
    Edit:
    Who names a parade route Riot Alley?
    Vancouver, that’s who
    zing!

  92. jtblack says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Sean Day waived unconditionally by the Rangers.

    His physical tools resulted in early dominance, but his hockey IQ never caught up.Sometimes when yhings are too easy too early, you end up not knowing what hard work and dedication is and for many, like Day, it ends up biting you in the ass.Too bad, his skating looks like Paul Coffey’s; Day is the only other player that I’ve seen that can skate like that.

    I wonder if anyone thinks he’s worthwhile to pick him up, I doubt it very much.

    he’s a 3rd round NHL draft pick who didn’t pan out … you can scour the draft years and find many 3rd rounders who aren’t worth picking up .. Day is no different. Sail on Sean, Sail on ….

  93. JimmyV1965 says:

    hunter1909: 7
    Interesting. Would everyone know this as common knowlege, like you share this with us now?

    I haven’t done the research to confirm this, but it seems to me it’s harder to find top six forwards outside the first round than it is to find top four dmen. If I was an actual GM, I would conduct the research before proceeding of course.

  94. dustrock says:

    Beyond building for the future, I’ve long suspected successful organizations develop better players simply because of the success.

    Just like locker room “culture”, most of it comes down to winning.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Victoria Oil: You may or may not be right about Krueger. But would you trade him for Dallas Eakins?

    I’d trade them both for Dave Tippett – even throw in some Hitch (and retain on him)….

  96. defmn says:

    jtblack: my understanding of the particular discussion was the value of quality players on ELC (cheap labor) and the ability to keep them coming year after year …..vs. trading for established players like AA who are already paid at market price …

    of course, every team needs a mix; but in a CAP world, having cheap impacting labor can be the difference for teams … it can be argued that Edmonton’s great season, was in large part due to the Emergence of Bear and then Yamamoto. Huge factors in the overall success. They had a Top 4 D man who most thought would be in the AHL, playing for $740,000 and they had a Top 6 RW who nobody thought would be a ppg player or if he would even make the team this year, for $894,000.

    Huge huge huge impact.

    Yes it is a huge impact but this particular comment started from our host’s comment that you get 3-4 years from an ELC and my response that that is usually only true of top 5 picks that enter the league directly from junior without seasoning in the AHL.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: After three or four inexpensive seasons, yes. You need inexpensive, value players, usually in their entry deals.

    or beauty second contracts like Caleb Jones at 2 X $850K……

  98. Harpers Hair says:

    hunter1909: Please Harpers Hair, this trolling passive aggressiveness is yet going to blow up in your hands.

    Example: I just found a blog that is full of opinions which run counter to yours. From people who live close enough for you to know.

    Not everyone loves Victoria/Vancouver island. $400 to move 1 car and 1 person off the island sounds scary. Do people who live in Victoria save up to leave? Are there $400 gift certificates with pictures of Ferries on them?

    Gare du Nord to Cannes by high speed train seems like a more civilized solution.

    In the interest of clarity and honesty, the ferry from Nanaimo to Vancouver is about $75 for a vehicle and two passengers….half price for seniors. Or I can fly to Vancouver harbour on a float plane for $65.

    How much would it cost you to drive to Banff, enjoy the Japanese shopping malls and drive back including the National Park entrance fee?

    The thing about being an Island is that while it is inconvenient at times, it also serves to keep the riff raff out.

    We currently have one active Covid case on the island and they are in hospital.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Lowetide,

    Right, forgot about sliding ELC’s

    Evan Bouchard with 3 years coming up on his ELC (assuming our #10D doesn’t play 10 games through the rest of the year)……….

    The value that contract is likely to bring over the next few years is arousing……

  100. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide: I would buy GC’s with pictures of ferries on them.

    I have a matching set of coffee mugs featuring photos of Gasoline Alley in Red Deer.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Very different team structures.

    Agree that the Oilers top two forwards are at a higher level both in terms of ability but also cap hits while the Canucks have much better forward depth and balance.

    No doubt the Oilers D depth is better and that will be the Canucks weakness until they fix it but starting that process with a true #1D in Quinn Hughes will help.

    With the two deadline acquisitions, the Oilers forward depth has improved vastly – maybe not enough to catch up but guys like Ennis, James Neal, Nygard, Chiasson will have to battle just to get in the healthy lineup.

  102. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair,

    “How much would it cost you to drive to Banff, enjoy the Japanese shopping malls and drive back including the National Park entrance fee?”

    I grew up in Banff ! they are now closing down part of “Banff Avenue” for social distancing purposes .. 50% of the tourism used to be international. Will be interesting to see how Banff makes out this summer ..

  103. jtblack says:

    defmn: Yes it is a huge impact but this particular comment started from our host’s comment that you get 3-4 years from an ELC and my response that that is usually only true of top 5 picks that enter the league directly from junior without seasoning in the AHL.

    fair enough Amigo!

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Speaking of the JT Miller trade – Cancuk’s keep their 1st rounder, for now…….:

    “More specifically, for Trade condition purposes, a Club will not be deemed to have qualified for the Playoffs unless or until they have progressed into the Round of 16, and ‘Playoff Games/Rounds’ will only include the games/rounds played in the Round of 16 or later. We believe this interpretation will best reflect the intentions of the parties at the time of the Trade,” the league stipulated.

    https://theathletic.com/1846465/2020/05/30/lebrun-the-nhls-conditional-trades-ruling-is-the-right-call/

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    In the same piece LeBrun provides his opinion that the Oilers should have to give up the 3rd rounder to the flames and that pro-rating makes sense.

    That’s only his opinion and not based on inside intel as he states the league has not provided intel or clarity yet.

  106. Georges says:

    Lowetide: Pittsburgh is often used as an example but the Penguins are consistent winners and have been able to sign/poach college free agents/draft picks that won’t sign. It’s their advantage and full credit to them for using it effectively.

    Edmonton needs to make the draft their strength.

    As for finding AA in the second round, chances of getting a contributor increases greatly when you have your actual second round pick.

    Pittsburgh’s roster construction isn’t unusual when it comes to the lower proportion of roster players that were drafted by the team.

    If you look at players who played 40 or more games last season (regular players more or less) on the teams that are left in the return to play proposal, here’s a breakdown of the proportion of players who were drafted by the team they finished the season with:

    Team, % of 40-game players that team drafted

    VGK, 0 (obviously)
    COL, 26
    MTL, 29
    ARI, 32
    NYR, 35
    PIT, 35
    MIN, 37
    EDM, 38
    FLA, 39
    VCR, 39
    WSH, 40
    CHI, 41

    League Average, 42

    CAR, 42
    TBL, 42
    TOR, 42
    STL, 45
    NSH, 47
    BOS, 50
    DAL, 50
    WPG, 50
    PHI, 53
    CGY, 58
    CBJ, 60
    NYI, 61

    Edmonton has already made the draft their strength: CMD, Drai, RNH, KY, Klef, Nurse, Bear are all central to the team. That’s a very strong core, one most teams would envy, built almost entirely from the first round.

    But you can also see from above that most teams (not just PIT) rely on channels other than the draft to fill out their rosters.

    “As for finding AA in the second round, chances of getting a contributor increases greatly when you have your actual second round pick.”

    Your chances of finding AA are much higher when you’ve traded away the second round picks to get AA on your roster. A second round forward pick has about a 1 in 10 chance of turning into a 0.5 Pts/GP, 100+ GP player. But a player like AA, who’s scored at a 0.5 Pts/GP pace after 5 NHL seasons has about a 2 in 3 chance of producing at that pace for the remainder of his career. It’s a small sample so, yes, things could go sideways. But the sample strongly suggests that even if things do go sideways, you’re still a very good bet to end up with a better than average NHL player.

    We might make more progress on this if you ask me to run a query on the data, a query that will help you get a fix on how often second round picks turn into useful or better than useful NHL players. I have some time this afternoon. We might both learn some things.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers:
    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Hypothetically if there is a compliance buyout and the Canucks hit a Homerun in free agency and get Pietrangelo or Krug then I could see them challenging for the division.

    Instead they’ll probably fork over the dollars to BC boy Tyson Barrie, and rue the contract within 18 months of it being signed.

    Add in Raffery and BAM … Stanley Cup!

    I’d be surprised if compliance buyouts were structured in for next season but, if they are, and Katz is willing to spend, the Oilers would also have room to fill their holes.

    Is anyone else here worried about Rafferty and Seth Jones and an impenetrable pairing for US hockey going forward?

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    defmn: You might get three years out of a top 5 pick but for late 1st round or 2nd round players I look at the trajectory of Benson or Yakomoto.

    The Oilers will get an inexpensive season and a half out of Yamomoto and they might get a year out of Benson if he makes the team out of camp next year.

    The way I see the pay structure evolving in the NHL under the cap is that there are 12 positions that cost money and the rest are contracts that have to come in under $2M max- half of those have to cost less than 1.3M.

    If Benson snags one of those top six wing jobs he will cost money. If he doesn’t he wont.

    The Oilers might get 2 inexpensive years out of Bouchard but one and a half is just as likely.

    I don’t think RFA’s for skill positions are signing the value contracts that they used to and teams seems happy to lock them in if they think they are long term solutions.

    The Oilers will likely get three inexpensive value contract years out of Bouchard, in my opinion.

    His ELC will slide again this year (assuming he doesn’t play 10 of the remaining games) and it will be year 1 next year.

  109. jtblack says:

    Georges,

    “VGK, 0 (obviously)”

    Glass had 39 games. Hague 38. So they were close !

    VGK is a team who mortgaged the future for today bigtime.

    Patches in. Suzuki out.
    Stone in. Branstromm out.

  110. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: The Oilers will likely get three inexpensive value contract years out of Bouchard, in my opinion.

    His ELC will slide again this year (assuming he doesn’t play 10 of the remaining games) and it will be year 1 next year.

    Right. Forgot about the slide. But the point still stands. For players drafted outside of top end of the first round seasoning in the AHL is necessary so teams don’t often get 3-4 years of inexpensive labour anymore because if the player is one of the top 12 skill positions RFA’s are getting paid coming out of that ELC in most cases these days.

  111. jp says:

    godot10: The Western Conference was the dominant conference.There were no crossover games with the east.Hall finished 2nd in the scoring race in the Western Conference.

    I’m forgetting how it’s clear the West was so dominant that year…

    That aside, 17-18 was the year he scored goals and points at the highest rates of his career. Finished highest in overall league goals and points. Had the best GF% of his career and the better GF% relative to team. The only season of his career his team made the playoffs. And he won the league MVP and got the only post-season all-star team nod of his career. John Hynes has a pretty good argument to claim Hall’s best season…

  112. €√¥£€^$ says:

    jtblack: he’s a 3rd round NHL draft pick who didn’t pan out … you can scour the draft years and find many 3rd rounders who aren’t worth picking up .. Day is no different. Sail on Sean, Sail on….

    Yes, he is different….he was an “exceptional” 3rd rounder 😬😬

  113. jtblack says:

    ART ROSS FINISHES FOR MCDAVID.

    2020 – 2
    2019 – 2
    2018 – 1
    2017 – 1

    That’s Good right?

    For Context Crosby has finished

    1st – Twice
    2nd – Twice
    3rd – 4 times
    along with a 5th and 6th ….

    So Grateful to have Drai and Connor on the team and be able to watch them over the next 5+ years …

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50: JT, are you sure They have 10 good years left?

    I’m not so sure.

    Someone else mentioned the Oilers are not co tenders for two more years. Why not? If you have the two top scorers in the league and cannot contend, what the heck is wrong with you?

    You draft till you get lucky. You select impact players, you cobble together a core group somehow then you must switch tactics. Draft still important but opportunity forces a switch of tactics, this is my belief.

    There are no perfect rosters. And as we getter better for 2023, other players drop off.

    I love the lowetide for draft coverage, it’s educational and makes it exciting. Last year I would have traded the first to get that o e good top six forward. If we pencel in JT Miller in for example, then add Yamamoto I felt it was worth it. And we would be without Broberg which I could live with.

    This year I’m not for trading the pick at all. But the seconds for AA I’m okay with. I think Holland will add again but can only afford incremental help. Jessie is an asset that might now pay off. Hope so as that was such a disappointment.

    Great read today.

    Yes, add JT Miller to the lineup and it may indeed be a true contender but how do you fit JT Miller in?

    OK, you don’t sign Chiasson but, still, where is the other $3M that needs to be cut?

    Also, with that trade, there is another expansion protection slot taken up (and an exempt asset traded for it).

    I understand your premise, and I don’t disagree, at some point trading a 1st rounder might be needed and/or worth it for that bump over the top.

    The cap space to pay the asset coming back from trading that 1st rounder is still somewhat prohibitive.

  115. Georges says:

    JimmyV1965: Nice post. The odds are not good that two late second round picks will ever be as good as AA.Maybe he never rebounds and never scores 25 again, but that’s unlikely as well.

    As an aside, if I was a GM I would use 90% of my first round picks on forwards and find my dmen in rounds 2-7.

    For forwards, it doesn’t matter where they’re picked in the second round. If anything, forwards picked later do a little better because they’re picked by better teams. But it’s not a big enough gap to count as significant.

    A lineup has 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 2 goalies. If those proportions hold up during a draft, you’d expect that 60% of draft picks should be forwards, 30% should be defensemen, and 10% should be goalies, both overall and in each round.

    Here are the actual proportions for the drafts from 2010 to 2019:

    Draft Round, % F, % D, % G

    1, 66, 31, 2
    2, 57, 34, 9
    3, 54, 32, 14

    Overall, 56, 34, 10

    So, forwards over-index in the first round, and defensemen over-index overall. Goalies are right in line with their representation in the starting lineup.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: The Jack Adams Trophy is cursed.I hope Tippett doesn’t win it.

    Sure, fair enough – frankly I don’t really care if he wins it or not – the point was really that Tippett has received, and continues to receive, credit for his part in the Oilers’ turnaround this season.

    At least I believe he has and does.

  117. jonrmcleod says:

    I haven’t been here in a while, so I must have missed the announcement that this was becoming a Canucks blog.

  118. geowal says:

    Glovjuice:
    I’m so disappointed that Leon is gonna win major awards with an asterisk. He was winning the Art Ross in a walk so hopefully less of an asterisk – but still – a bummer.

    How’s this for an asterisk: despite the season being shortened by Covid, only last year’s season by Kucherov (128 pts) netted more points in a season by an Art Ross Winner than Leon’s 110pts, dating back to 2010, when Henrik Sedin won with 112 pts.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: IMO they are contenders Right Now. I agree with OP.

    When play was halted:

    Edmonton was 4th in the West for pts.

    Edmonton was 9th in the NHL for pts.

    Edmonton had (has) the Top 2 scorers in the League.

    Edmonton has 2 scoring lines. Added 3 pieces at the deadline.Have 2 Good Goalies.

    They are a Contender Right Now.

    and with KH at the helm, they *should* continue to get stronger and better and be a consistent Top 8 team in the League for the foreseeable future,

    Of note, I believe Edmonton was 6th in the league in points percentage since Yamamoto was recalled at the turn of the calendar – and that includes 7 games (I think) without McDavid (and much of it prior to accumulating the deadline depth).

    Are they an elite contending team? No, but I think they can certainly go on a run.

    They have depth at every single position right now:

    – 2 of Ennis, Nygard, Haas, Chiasson, Neal will be healthy scratches
    – one of Rusty/Jones will be a scratch on LD and they still have Lagesson
    – one of Benning/Green will be a scratch on RD and they still have Bouchard
    – nope, neither of Koski nor Smith are elite but both have shown the ability to get hot and that can win playoff series.
    – shit, if once of the top 2 centers went down, there is still Nuge to fill in up the middle

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Do you think the Oilers historically high PP percentage is sustainable?

    Without it, the Oilers not outscoring at evens.

    I don’t think that 30% is sustainable year after year but having a good PP, year over year, has shown to be repeatable and much more predictable than a great PK.

    Do we really think the likes of McDavid, Drai and Nuge, none of them near regression years, won’t continue to succeed on the PP? Klefbom has learned now to distribute the puck with those guys but there are two young high end PP talents that will replace him over the next few year – both Bear and Bouchard were elite PP d-men in junior – it may not translate but I don’t see this PP not being top 10 in any year in the near future.

    The reliance on special teams is absolutely a concern – i give you that. For the rest of this season, AA and Ennis provide some extra 5 on 5 depth that gives the coach options and should improve 5 on 5 play – should.

    For the future, well, GM Ken Holland is still building.

  121. geowal says:

    jtblack:
    Harpers Hair,

    “How much would it cost you to drive to Banff, enjoy the Japanese shopping malls and drive back including the National Park entrance fee?”

    I grew up in Banff !they are now closing down part of “Banff Avenue” for social distancing purposes .. 50% of the tourism used to be international. Will be interesting to see how Banff makes out this summer ..

    I think there’s a chance it’s quite “busy” with locals who avoid it because it’s usually too busy, but many businesses do poorly because they sell stuff few Canadians want (tacky souvenirs, overpriced mtn gear, rocks and gems) etc.
    Places locals would go to, like Banff Brew co, coffee shops, some restaurants, may do as well as possible, max capacity losses due to distancing aside.

  122. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Cup!
    Signing Petro for seven years at $9 mill would be a huge mistake as well.
      (Quote)  (Reply)

    It’s not going to happen

    OriginalPouzar:
    In the same piece LeBrun provides his opinion that the Oilers should have to give up the 3rd rounder to the flames and that pro-rating makes sense.

    That’s only his opinion and not based on inside intel as he states the league has not provided intel or clarity yet.

    Not going to happen. LeBrun Is just trolling Oiler fans.

  123. geowal says:

    jtblack:
    flyfish1168,

    “Seattle well get a good player from us”

    just like Vegas did 🙂

    If Seattle doesn’t get a good player from your team, it means your team sucks. Just like with Vegas.

  124. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think that 30% is sustainable year after year but having a good PP, year over year, has shown to be repeatable and much more predictable than a great PK.

    Do we really think the likes of McDavid, Drai and Nuge, none of them near regression years, won’t continue to succeed on the PP?Klefbom has learned now to distribute the puck with those guys but there are two young high end PP talents that will replace him over the next few year – both Bear and Bouchard were elite PP d-men in junior – it may not translate but I don’t see this PP not being top 10 in any year in the near future.

    The reliance on special teams is absolutely a concern – i give you that. For the rest of this season, AA and Ennis provide some extra 5 on 5 depth that gives the coach options and should improve 5 on 5 play – should.

    For the future, well, GM Ken Holland is still building.

    Top 10 is likely…it’s also likely to not be good enough to be a contender if your 5V5 play is average at best.

    Still lots of work to do and not many assets (other than trades) to do it.

  125. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of note, I believe Edmonton was 6th in the league in points percentage since Yamamoto was recalled at the turn of the calendar – and that includes 7 games (I think) without McDavid (and much of it prior to accumulating the deadline depth).

    Are they an elite contending team?No, but I think they can certainly go on a run.

    They have depth at every single position right now:

    – 2 of Ennis, Nygard, Haas, Chiasson, Neal will be healthy scratches
    – one of Rusty/Jones will be a scratch on LD and they still have Lagesson
    – one of Benning/Green will be a scratch on RD and they still have Bouchard
    – nope, neither of Koski nor Smith are elite but both have shown the ability to get hot and that can win playoff series.
    – shit, if once of the top 2 centers went down, there is still Nuge to fill in up the middle

    Are you at all concerned that Yamamoto’s shooting percentage was 25%.

    It was 7.7% the previous season.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: in the last 5 years, the Edmonton Oilers have exactly 2 players to play 100+ games.

    McDavid and Puljujarvi.so not sure why that metric matters?

    That number will go up and up and up thought – Bear, Jones and Yamamoto will assuredly be added to the list – can’t imagine Bouchard won’t be. A number of others likely as well.

    I would think the same can be said for PIT though so your point is likely very valid that the metric doesn’t tell much.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Don’t forget RNHHe is a huge part of the PP. I think it’s the best part of his game, even though he’s great on the PK.

    Its tough to evaluate PK ability by the numbers for the most part but, if I remember correctly, hasn’t Nuge had semi-poor numbers on the PK over the years? Likely a function, at least partially, of being on an overall poor PK unit but still.

    Also, I think JJ has had fairly solid numbers the last few years even on tough PK units and he is Nuge’s regular PK partner this year.

    Not to deride Nuge….

  128. geowal says:

    Harpers Hair: Are you at all concerned that Yamamoto’s shooting percentage was 25%.

    It was 7.7% the previous season.

    I’ll take the average of those two and run, please and thanks.

  129. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Well, as I pointed out, the Oilers have been building through the draft for at least 13 years and yet, here we are.

    What would you point to as the reason for lack of sustained success?

    When you let the talent get to rock bottom it is a long climb back. Poor draft and development put them in the hole and until recently has kept them there.

  130. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair: Well, as I pointed out, the Oilers have been building through the draft for at least 13 years and yet, here we are.

    What would you point to as the reason for lack of sustained success?

    Oilers tore it down, and it’s taken one forever to build it back. Fans should hope Holland finds a way to get Nuge, Larsson and Klefbom into ‘next contracts’ without breaking the bank. If the team added those three at their current age in summer 2011 instead of Eric Belanger, Andy Sutton and Cam Barker then the last decade might have turned out differently. Depth and balance means having several players over 25 and less than 32 contributing in a big way.

  131. Lowetide says:

    geowal: I’ll take the average of those two and run, please and thanks.

    Kubalik’s is 19.1, regression will come for both but we don’t know when.

  132. leadfarmer says:

    I’ll be curious to see what the ratings will be for these playoffs
    After being cooped up for months I don’t see a huge desire to stay inside this summer to watch hockey especially in the US

  133. Georges says:

    “However, the work of populating the skill RW spots for the 2020-21 season should have come from the 2012-17 draft.”

    A skilled forward, relative to his peers, scores at about a 0.5 Pts/GP pace. To be an impact forward, he also has to be relatively durable and play the majority of games.

    In 19-20, there were 169 forwards who played 40 or more games and scored at 0.5 Pts/GP pace or better. 54% of them were playing on the team that drafted them. Which means there were many skilled forward spots that were populated by players that teams didn’t draft. And if you factor in that teams will more likely hold on to the highest end offensive talent (72% of forwards scoring 0.8 Pts/GP or higher were with the teams that drafted them), you’ll see that teams are more likely to find their mid-level forward talent outside the draft. The draft is just one part of the work of populating skilled forward spots. It’s nowhere near the only part.

    “It’s insanity that Yakupov and Puljujarvi aren’t 1-2 on the depth chart with Yamamoto pushing.”

    Unusual, yes, insanity, no.

    Let’s leave Yamamoto out of this because he’s (so far) our one success of those 3 picks and he was selected outside of the top 5.

    Between 2012 and 2017, 21 forwards were selected in the top 5 spots of the draft. Let’s exclude the 4 picks the Oilers made in that time. Here’s the remaining list:

    Name, GP, Pts/GP

    Matthews, 282, 1.01
    Marner, 300, 0.97
    Eichel, 354, 0.95
    Pettersson, 139, 0.95
    MacKinnon, 525, 0.94
    Barkov, 479, 0.85
    Laine, 305, 0.81
    Dubois, 234, 0.68
    Hischier, 209, 0.65
    Strome, 164, 0.64
    Reinhart, 400, 0.64
    Lindholm, 525, 0.61
    Drouin, 349, 0.60
    Galchenyuk, 549, 0.58
    Patrick, 145, 0.42
    Bennett, 364, 0.35
    Dal Colle, 85, 0.20

    Laine and above are high end players. 7 out of 17. All are still with their drafting teams.

    Patrick, Bennett, and Dal Colle haven’t reached the skilled forward threshold. 3 out of 17.

    Of the remaining 7, 4 are skating with different teams than the ones that drafted them, indicating that they were in some way a disappointment to their original teams.

    When Strome left ARI in his draft+4, he had played 48 games and scored 16 points in 3 seasons of play. He went to CHI and was resurrected.

    When Lindholm left CAR, he had scored 188 points in 374 games, right around the threshold of skilled forward. In two seasons in CGY, he’s chasing a point a game pace.

    All in all, we have 3 out of 17 picks that were disappointments and one narrowly escaped by leaving his drafting team and finding new life with a new franchise that gave him confidence and opportunities he didn’t have in his first go. But he failed to live up to expectations for his drafting team, as in, he didn’t even reach the 0.5 Pts/GP threshold.

    If we come back to the four Oilers picks, two were hit right out of the park and two didn’t turn out. If picks were independent, then based on the results from the other teams, we shouldn’t be too surprised to find that one of our picks didn’t make it.

    Yak’s story is super sad. He had great numbers in his first year and then… Eakins. And after Eakins, TMac. After TMac, Hitchcock. Good grief. By the time he got to Bednar, it was too late.

    JP’s story is yet unwritten. Unsuccessful launch, the dreaded TMac+Hitchcock tandem. And probably some mean girls locker shenanigans to harpoon the kid’s confidence. He’s still in the running for a Strome like resurrection. If that happens, then we’d have only Yak as a clear draft failure.

    It feels to me like picks aren’t actually independent. Both Yak and JP played for the Oil and struggled, and both had the TMac+Hitch experience. TMac isn’t a mediocre coach… he’s a terrible, terrible coach. Hitch, meanwhile, was lost in the sauce. He was such a dink with JP, telling the locals I know how to fix him, he belongs up here… grrr

    So, yeah, not insane, when you look a little closer.

  134. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Are you at all concerned that Yamamoto’s shooting percentage was 25%.

    It was 7.7% the previous season.

    geowal: I’ll take the average of those two and run, please and thanks.

    Yamamoto’s shooting %
    19-20 NHL 25.0%
    19-20 AHL 18.6%

    18-19 NHL 7.7%
    18-19 AHL 22.2%

    17-18 WHL 20.8%

    The WHL didn’t keep stats for Yamamoto’s draft year when he scored 42 goals. I imaging the SH% was nice that year too.

    Yes, he’ll regress from 25%. And at least splitting the difference between this NHL season and last seems a very good bet based on his own history.

  135. Material Elvis says:

    OriginalPouzar: Evan Bouchard with 3 years coming up on his ELC (assuming our #10D doesn’t play 10 games through the rest of the year)……….

    The value that contract is likely to bring over the next few years is arousing……

    Damn OP….. take Bouchard’s contract and get a room.

  136. jp says:

    oilersfan:

    One thing I don’t like about the Chiarelli era drafting was the over focus on defence men and goalies. We can only have six goalies in the system and the team needs twice as many forwards as defensemen so why were 80% of the skaters drafted in that era defence men. ???

    Chiarelli was GM for 4 drafts (2015-18). In that time the Oilers drafted 11F, 11D and 4G.

    What’s interesting is that aside from Bouchard, none of the D were drafted before the 3rd round. That 4 of the 11 D appear to be legit NHLers, or tracking as that (Bouchard), well that’s pretty solid work.

    In addition to Bouchard, 5F and 1G were drafted in the 1st and 2nd round by Chiarelli.

    Willis has an article at the Athletic about “why NHL teams should gamble of D later in the draft”. I haven’t actually read it but seems like it might have been a solid strategy by Chiarelli and his staff.
    https://theathletic.com/1828498/2020/05/21/why-nhl-teams-should-gamble-on-defencemen-over-forwards-later-in-the-draft/

    Agree the Oilers haven’t gotten anything out of their goalie picks in some time. Chiarelli drafted 1 per year but again, the highest pick spent on a goalie was #62 for Rodrigue.

    Honestly all this seems like a sound strategy to me.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: It’s not going to happen

    Not going to happen. LeBrun Is just trolling Oiler fans.

    I don’t think they are going to assign the flames the Oilers’ third round pick and move on.

    I don’t think they are going to have the Oilers keep their third rounder and the flames receive nothing and move on.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Top 10 is likely…it’s also likely to not be good enough to be a contender if your 5V5 play is average at best.

    Still lots of work to do and not many assets (other than trades) to do it.

    There is work to do, of course – but it is not nearly as much as the post above indicates.

    Lots of important pieces in place with a few sparklers on their way including Evan Bouchard – Kailer Yamamoto showed how important one little piece can be.

    Of note, through the last 30 games of the season, with the Oilers being one of the best teams in the league, the 5 on 5 goal differential was massively positive – with McDavid missing a quarter of those games.

    Perhaps the 5 on 5 goal differential has been solved internally.

  139. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Very different team structures.

    Agree that the Oilers top two forwards are at a higher level both in terms of ability but also cap hits while the Canucks have much better forward depth and balance.

    No doubt the Oilers D depth is better and that will be the Canucks weakness until they fix it but starting that process with a true #1D in Quinn Hughes will help.

    Depth: Paying 6 different forwards $3M+ each to score less than 20 points.

    Bonus: Having all 6 of those guys on the payroll for this season AND next.
    (And also still having to pay 4 of them in 21-22).

    It’s going to be very tough for the Canucks to improve in the short term due to that “depth” you speak of.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Are you at all concerned that Yamamoto’s shooting percentage was 25%.

    It was 7.7% the previous season.

    Nope, not overly concerned. I don’t expect him to shoot that high year over year or to be to 5 in the NHL in P/60 year over year.

    Of course, as Drai shows, good players on good lines create good scoring chances and shoot at a higher percentage.

    As an Oiler-hater are you concerned that a 21 year old Yamamoto produced at the excellent rates he did and didn’t even receive any material PP time?

    Imagine how much more productive he could be.

    Last year’s shooting percentage is irrelevant – he was a developing player that shouldn’t be in the NHL playing in his first year pro – weird that a first year pro would improve.

    As an aside, JT MIller shot 2.7%, 7.8% and 9.6% in his first three years in the NHL….

  141. Georges says:

    Harpers Hair: Well, as I pointed out, the Oilers have been building through the draft for at least 13 years and yet, here we are.

    What would you point to as the reason for lack of sustained success?

    1. Not understanding how unreliable the draft is as a source of NHL talent.

    – each draft class has to compete for jobs with the best players from all previous draft classes as well as the best undrafted players

    2. Not understanding how to properly value NHL players.

    – you have a much better chance if you can identify value in actual NHL players and make the appropriate moves to secure players who are undervalued by their current teams; we were always giving in this regard, never receiving

    3. Not understanding how to select and evaluate HC’s.

    – even when we managed to get a competitive group together, we hired awful coaches who performed below expectations and then blamed the roster, leading to more giving by the GM’s who couldn’t properly value NHL players

    For a long time, I tried to defend the Hall-Larsson-Lucic moves. It was mega-dumb. If you’re going to trade Hall, you can’t trade for Larsson. If you’re going to give someone Hall’s money, you can’t give it to 28 year old Lucic. So straightforward. I have an excuse; I’m a civilian.

    But it was all set in motion by how craptacularly badly the HC handled the 15-16 season, just hideous. PC should’ve fired that guy or at least said, dude, you get one more chance. Leading into the summer, PC had already muscled us up by bringing in Maroon and Kassian. Talbot had stabilized. What happened in the summer of 17 was almost as gross…

    Anyway…

    So far so good with Holland and Tippett. Those deadline moves make this team extremely interesting. Tippett doesn’t get a free pass if EDM exits early. That’s life as an HC. But Tippett knows that. No better time to win than today.

  142. Lowetide says:

    Georges:

    Yak’s story is super sad. He had great numbers in his first year and then… Eakins.

    I would throw in the referee who didn’t help.

  143. digger50 says:

    jtblack: You never know how long Connor and Leon will be elite, but if you factor today’s training, nutrition and overall body care;judging by other Superstars, they have 10+ years left. Sid, Gino and Ovie just finished 15th, 15th and 16th seasons.All were 1 PPG or better ….I think McD & Drai are in that class ..

    I think Edm are contenders now. In this playoffs.Their window starts now and hopefully it runs for a decade.KH said he was trying to build an annual contender.

    Here is my favorite model.
    https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00008871.html

    Drafted 13 of their 161st Round picks since Ovechkin arrived.They have made a few trades and signed some FA’s as well, but the core of their team is from drafting and developing well.They have been contenders for a decade, so they didn’t sacrifice winning in the present (2009, 2012, 2015), all the while continuing to add key pieces to their team.

    The 2020 Draft is 5 years after Connor was drafted.For Wash Kuznetsov was drafted 6 years after Ovie. Tom Wilson 8 years after Ovie.

    As far as the JT Miller trade. It has proved excellent for Van thus far. And yes, if Edmonton knew they were getting a JT Miller, hindsight tells us almost every GM would consider that trade. But the flip side is few people predicted Miller would be as Good a fit as he has been. He’s been outstanding.

    I worry about Connors wide open style and potential injury, and I don’t see him slowing down which is why we love him.

    I also enjoy your draft posts.

  144. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Featuring The Donut Mill and Glenn’s (I’d hope).

  145. Georges says:

    Lowetide: I would throw in the referee who didn’t help.

    Gawd… that poor guy… has that ever happened before or since?

  146. Harpers Hair says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Harpers Hair,

    Featuring The Donut Mill and Glenn’s (I’d hope).

    Have been to both numerous times but my most “memorable” visit was the time I had to take a leak.

    Stopped at one of the gas stations and upon entering the washroom I discovered someone had taken a dump in the sink.

    Welcome to Red Deer!

  147. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    A club will not be deemed to have made the playoffs unless they reach the round of 16, but all individual and club stats/points from hereon out are considered playoff points.

    Okay then, NHL.

  148. Harpers Hair says:

    Georges: 1. Not understanding how unreliable the draft is as a source of NHL talent.

    – each draft class has to compete for jobs with the best players from all previous draft classes as well as the best undrafted players

    2. Not understanding how to properly value NHL players.

    – you have a much better chance if you can identify value in actual NHL players and make the appropriate moves to secure players who are undervalued by their current teams; we were always giving in this regard, never receiving

    3. Not understanding how to select and evaluate HC’s.

    – even when we managed to get a competitive group together, we hired awful coaches who performed below expectations and then blamed the roster, leading to more giving by the GM’s who couldn’t properly value NHL players

    For a long time, I tried to defend the Hall-Larsson-Lucic moves. It was mega-dumb. If you’re going to trade Hall, you can’t trade for Larsson. If you’re going to give someone Hall’s money, you can’t give it to 28 year old Lucic. So straightforward. I have an excuse; I’m a civilian.

    But it was all set in motion by how craptacularly badly the HC handled the 15-16 season, just hideous. PC should’ve fired that guy or at least said, dude, you get one more chance. Leading into the summer, PC had already muscled us up by bringing in Maroon and Kassian. Talbot had stabilized. What happened in the summer of 17 was almost as gross…

    Anyway…

    So far so good with Holland and Tippett. Those deadline moves make this team extremely interesting. Tippett doesn’t get a free pass if EDM exits early. That’s life as an HC. But Tippett knows that. No better time to win than today.

    Great analysis…so many unforced errors.

    But I’m not sure the bleeding has been staunched.

    The Chiasson and Kassian contracts and buying out Sekera look like more of the same.

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Chiarelli was GM for 4 drafts (2015-18). In that time the Oilers drafted 11F, 11D and 4G.

    What’s interesting is that aside from Bouchard, none of the D were drafted before the 3rd round. That 4 of the 11 D appear to be legit NHLers, or tracking as that (Bouchard), well that’s pretty solid work.

    In addition to Bouchard, 5F and 1G were drafted in the 1st and 2nd round by Chiarelli.

    Willis has an article at the Athletic about “why NHL teams should gamble of D later in the draft”. I haven’t actually read it but seems like it might have been a solid strategy by Chiarelli and his staff.
    https://theathletic.com/1828498/2020/05/21/why-nhl-teams-should-gamble-on-defencemen-over-forwards-later-in-the-draft/

    Agree the Oilers haven’t gotten anything out of their goalie picks in some time. Chiarelli drafted 1 per year but again, the highest pick spent on a goalie was #62 for Rodrigue.

    Honestly all this seems like a sound strategy to me.

    It is true that not much has been received from the goalie picks during that time but there is still lots of yard left to go. I mean Wells is 22 and Skinner 21, both on their ELCs. We know the general time frame with goalies and that many pop nearing their mid-20s and even later.

    Rodrigue and Konovalov were both regarded among the top goalies in their draft classes and Rodrigue had a great draft plus 1 season.

    No sure things for sure but still lots of road ahead.

  150. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georges,

    Tangential question I know, but AA was a 4th round pick at 110 overall. We’re comparing him to what we paid to acquire him (which is fair). But what are the chances of finding a player of his ilk in the fourth round?

    AA, Josh Anderson, and Jacob Slavin all came from the same fourth round of 2012 which is touted to be a particularly weak draft year by many. I don’t know what it means, just that I find the point interesting.

  151. Georges says:

    Harpers Hair: Great analysis…so many unforced errors.

    But I’m not sure the bleeding has been staunched.

    The Chiasson and Kassian contracts and buying out Sekera look like more of the same.

    What’s the matter with Chiasson?

    – he scores like a typical NHL forward

    – the team is 21-19 with him on the ice at 5v5

    – he costs about $90K per point according to CapFriendly; that puts him above the median for forwards on a standard contract

    – he has one more year, right? seems like a simple vet signing with a very reasonable return

    What’s wrong with Kassian?

    – he’s the only player that can ride shotgun with CMD when necessary and he doesn’t hurt CMD’s offense

    – CMD’s on-ice results are better with Kassian than without

    – the team wins his minutes @ 5v5

    – he’s scoring at a top 6 pace and he fights

    – he gets $1.2M more for 4 more years; the Kassian of 19-20 is an excellent deal @ $3.2 per

    – will he put his feet up? maybe… but he’s a former first rounder, went off the rails, nearly out of the game, now a reborn type… nice story

    – it seems he has a lot of gratitude for the team taking a chance on him; seems like a good bet, those early, flaky years didn’t put that much mileage on his body

    I didn’t think that much of pre-injury Sekera, particularly when compared to Russell. Post-injury Sekera was a complete disaster for the Oil. Good for him he’s found some footing in Dallas. Holland must have gambled on an increasing salary cap to justify the two additional years hit. But how could anyone have known there was a pandemic on the way?

  152. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Harpers Hair,

    That is such an apt description of that … shit hole, it defies discrepancy.

    I left my hometown for many a reason, and that’s a pungent parallel on par.

  153. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georges,

    Curious about the reasoning/data behind this comment of yours where you seem to prefer KRusty over the Turd Polisher:

    “I didn’t think that much of pre-injury Sekera, particularly when compared to Russell.”

  154. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Great analysis…so many unforced errors.

    But I’m not sure the bleeding has been staunched.

    The Chiasson and Kassian contracts and buying out Sekera look like more of the same.

    Even if these are bad value (that’s not clear) they’re still small beans.

    Both players cost less than Eriksson as a for instance. And Kassian will be younger when his deal ends than Eriksson is now…

  155. Georges says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Georges,

    Tangential question I know, but AA was a 4th round pick at 110 overall.We’re comparing him to what we paid to acquire him (which is fair).But what are the chances of finding a player of his ilk in the fourth round?

    AA, Josh Anderson, and Jacob Slavin all came from the same fourth round of 2012 which is touted to be a particularly weak draft year by many.I don’t know what it means, just that I find the point interesting.

    227: Fourth round forward picks from 2007 to 2019.

    4: Number of forwards who have career Pts/GP of 0.5 or better And have played 100 or more career games

    Gaudreau
    Arvidsson
    Nyquist
    Athanasiou

    Are there are other 4th round picks already in the NHL who are already at or above 0.5 Pts/GP but haven’t yet played 100 games?

    No.

    How about lowering the scoring threshold to 0.4 Pts/GP? Maybe they’ll produce more offense later in their careers.

    8 more players show up:

    Player, GP, Pts/GP

    Craig Smith, 661, 0.5 (rounding up)
    Danton Heinen, 229, 0.47
    Joonas Donskoi, 348, 0.45
    Drake Batherson, 43, 0.44
    Josh Anderson, 267, 0.43
    Adam Brooks, 7 GP, 0.43
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau, 435, 0.42
    Linus Omark, 79 GP, 0.41

    I believe 7 are active players.

    So, success rate is between 4 and 12 out of 227 players.

    What was wrong with Linus?

  156. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Even if these are bad value (that’s not clear) they’re still small beans.

    Both players cost less than Eriksson as a for instance. And Kassian will be younger when his deal ends than Eriksson is now…

    Not sure what Eriksson has to do with Chiasson, Kassian and Sekera but just a reminder that the Oilers have their own Eriksson and he’s about to turn 33.

    James Neal has three additional years remaining on his contract…Eriksson has two.

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Georges,

    Tangential question I know, but AA was a 4th round pick at 110 overall.We’re comparing him to what we paid to acquire him (which is fair).But what are the chances of finding a player of his ilk in the fourth round?

    AA, Josh Anderson, and Jacob Slavin all came from the same fourth round of 2012 which is touted to be a particularly weak draft year by many.I don’t know what it means, just that I find the point interesting.

    Caleb Jones
    Willie Laggeson
    Eric Gustaffson
    Shawn Horcoff
    Josef Baranek
    Esa Tikkanen
    Yaroslav Pouzar

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georges:

    I didn’t think that much of pre-injury Sekera, particularly when compared to Russell. Post-injury Sekera was a complete disaster for the Oil. Good for him he’s found some footing in Dallas. Holland must have gambled on an increasing salary cap to justify the two additional years hit. But how could anyone have known there was a pandemic on the way?

    Pre-injury Sekera was a fantastic d-man and arguably the best Oiler d-man that season through the playoffs. He was worth every penny of that $5.5M per in my opinion.

    I wasn’t on board with him being bought out and I still wish Holland would have found another way but, as it turns out, moving the player out and allowing for Bear and Jones to earn their roles on the team, has helped the team.

    Nice value contract for Dallas but lets not over-play Sekera this year – in 2020, he’s solidly 3rd pairing (6th on TOI/G) and 2nd pairing PK (with no PP time).

  159. Georges says:

    By the way, here’s my comparison set for AA’s future performance.

    Forwards who’ve scored between 0.5 and 0.55 Pts/GP by the end of their 5th year in the NHL. They’ll also have had to have played at least 100 games. (I forget the range of 5th year seasons I used to filter the list…)

    Player, Pts/GP by 5th year, GP after 5th year, Pts/GP after 5th year

    Cam Atkinson, .55, 271, .75
    Derick Brassard, .55, 577, .58
    David Booth, .55, 227, .31
    Bryan Little, .55, 487, .67
    Rich Peverley, .55, 166, .54
    Ryan Spooner, .55, 111, .45
    Rickard Rakell, .55, 211, .73
    Teuvo Teravainen, .54, 150, .93
    Marcus Johansson, .54, 303, .59
    Mika Zibanejad, .54, 267, .87
    Jordan Staal, .54, 592, .57
    William Karlsson, .53, 63, .73
    Dave Bolland, .53, 212, .43
    Reilly Smith, .53, 292, .70
    Patrik Berglund, .53, 359, .38
    Sergei Kostitsyn, .52, 46, .33
    Tomas Hertl, .52, 125, .88
    Clarke MacArthur, .52, 262, .59
    Ryan Callahan, .51, 473, .51
    Frans Nielsen, .51, 659, .53
    Patrick O’Sullivan, .50, 23, .17
    Craig Smith, .50, 302, .49
    Steve Downie, .50, 162, .36
    Elias Lindholm, .50, 151, .87
    Michael Grabner, .50, 357, .38
    Charlie Coyle, .50, 217, .50
    Alexander Wennberg, .50, 57, .39

    Hmm, I guess to be fair, if I’m going to include players who did a little better than AA, I should also include players who did a little worse. I’ll do that tomorrow, I guess. Maybe the picture isn’t as clear or rosy.

  160. Georges says:

    OriginalPouzar: Pre-injury Sekera was a fantastic d-man and arguably the best Oiler d-man that season through the playoffs. He was worth every penny of that $5.5M per in my opinion.

    I wasn’t on board with him being bought out and I still wish Holland would have found another way but, as it turns out, moving the player out and allowing for Bear and Jones to earn their roles on the team, has helped the team.

    Nice value contract for Dallas but lets not over-play Sekera this year – in 2020, he’s solidly 3rd pairing (6th on TOI/G) and 2nd pairing PK (with no PP time).

    Fair enough.

    Sekera definitely has more fans than Russell.

    It’s good you noted the role he’s playing in DAL. Awful tough to pay $5.5M for a similar role here.

    Tippett is using Russell on the 3rd pair as well. I’m not entirely sure that’s a reflection on Russell or more Tippett’s very strong belief in and support of Bear. I don’t think Tippett isn’t confident in Russell the way that other guy wasn’t confident in Fayne. He’s usually paired Russell with the younger player he wants to play the least. At least, that’s my impression of it.

  161. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Not sure what Eriksson has to do with Chiasson, Kassian and Sekera but just a reminder that the Oilers have their own Eriksson and he’s about to turn 33.

    James Neal has three additional years remaining on his contract…Eriksson has two.

    The potential damage done by these deals is less than the largest of the Canucks numerous boat anchors.

    The guy who signed every one of the Canucks ‘balanced’ $3M apiece bottom 6 is still running the show.

    The guy who signed Lucic and lead to the Oilers owing Neal is no longer with the Oilers.

    Fair?

  162. defmn says:

    Great conversation today.

  163. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georges,

    What was wrong with Linus is that was he was a disrespectful rookie.

    source: https://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/14/sports/hockey/14rookie.html

    ‘Omark, of the Edmonton Oilers, scored a spectacular shootout goal on Friday in his first N.H.L. game, a 360-degree, pump-fake snap shot between the goalie’s legs. The unconventional showmanship brought Oilers fans to their feet and infuriated the Tampa Bay goalie Dan Ellis and others.

    “It’s embarrassing for him,” Ellis said. “You come into a league, a respectful league like this, and you try a little move like that. It’s not a very classy thing. That’s just the kind of person he is.”

    Omark’s highlight-show goal has sparked a heated argument across North American hockey, a game rooted in the values of Victorian-era Canada, which regards personal flair and goal celebrations as immodest and contemptuous of opponents.

    Some hated it, like Ellis’s teammates Martin St. Louis, who called it “a slap in the face,” and Steven Stamkos, who said he “didn’t think it showed a lot of respect.”’

    This was, of course, rather over hyped. LO took his 360 at the centre ice line as he took possession of the puck. If I recall correctly, one Steven Stamkos took a shootout attempt not too long after this event, complete with a 360 at or near the goal line, and scored. Nobody blinked.

    Interesting that Craig Smith shows so well, where JGP was the subject of the recent hype-machine. Perhaps OP has been right all along, and he’s the elusive 3C we have been looking for…

  164. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    So, about 7/40 years? Give or take?

  165. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georges,

    No matter how you slice it, that’s a heady list of players to compare a late round pick with.

    I’m no maths wizard, but intuitively speaking… the chances of either or both of one of two second round picks turning into a Coyle/Smith/Callahan/Smith/Staal/Zibanejad/Rakell/Little are pretty low. No?

  166. duct tape and foil says:

    Since the NHL has definitively said the play-in round is NOT the playoffs, why not let Neal/Lucic goals recorded during the play-in round decide the fate of the pick. If Neal scores 2 more, the Oilers pay. If he doesn’t or Lucic scores more than the set amount then the Oilers keep it. At least games would decide the issue instead of an arbitrary Bettman whim.

  167. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn:
    The Oilers might get 2 inexpensive years out of Bouchard but one and a half is just as likely.

    Bouchard’s ELC slides this year, so the Oilers could well get three inexpensive years out of him. Two-and-a-half is virtually guaranteed.

  168. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn: Boston is another team that I think makes a contribution to the discussion.

    They had 3 first round picks at 13, 14, 15 and struck out on two and got a double? with DeBrusk.

    7 picks in the first 75. Five of them were duds but the Bruins picked up a Carlo in the second round and came out OK.

    The thing is, though, that Boston didn’t need 3 or 4 hits. They had most of their core positions already covered for the next 3 or 4 years so they just kept trucking.

    The Oilers are not that. They still need to fill some of those positions and the farm team is not flush. The other side of the discussion, though, is what has already been said. The Oilers need to prove to the guys here now that they want to win with them. That the heart of their careers won’t be sacrificed because of bad management in the past.

    To me this is the tightrope that Holland is walking and so far I am impressed. More picks are good but winning creates advantages in terms of free agent signings and happy players.

    You do realize that Boston is a 1-line team with excellent defense and goaltending, right? There’s a reason they’ve never gone all the way with that setup – no scoring depth.

  169. ArmchairGM says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Since the NHL has definitively said the play-in round is NOT the playoffs, why not let Neal/Lucic goals recorded during the play-in round decide the fate of the pick. If Neal scores 2 more, the Oilers pay. If he doesn’t or Lucic scores more than the set amount then the Oilers keep it. At least games would decide the issue instead of an arbitrary Bettman whim.

    But that’s not the case. NHL definitively stated that play-in stats will be considered playoff scoring, not regular season scoring.

  170. €√¥£€^$ says:

    OriginalPouzar: Caleb Jones
    Willie Laggeson
    Eric Gustaffson
    Shawn Horcoff
    Josef Baranek
    Esa Tikkanen
    Yaroslav Pouzar

    OP, dude, you spelled your name wrong……

  171. VanIsleOil says:

    €√¥£€^$: OP, dude, you spelled your name wrong……

    ..hmmmmm….. is he really the Original?

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Bouchard’s ELC slides this year, so the Oilers could well get three inexpensive years out of him. Two-and-a-half is virtually guaranteed.

    Yup.

    It some (many) cases, the argument can be made that its beneficial in the medium term for the ELC to not slide and to burn a year as that second contract will come a bit earlier and the player should be cheaper.

    3 years from not I presume and anticipate that Bouchard will be very expensive on his 2nd contract, however, with that said, 3 years of this player between $894K and $1.6M (depending on bonuses vested) should be a major value contract for the Oilers and could be a material part in a championship.

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