Last Chance Texaco

by Lowetide

It’s always interesting to see a new general manager suss through the closets of the major and minor roster, plus the draft picks who have to be signed each summer. So far, Ken Holland has hit ‘retain’ surprisingly often, has one more player to decide on this summer.

Along with signing his own second-round selection from last summer (Raphael Lavoie), Holland inked Swedish free-agent blue Theodor Lennstrom plus two 2016 draft picks (Markus Niemelainen, Filip Berglund). Now, Graham McPhee is the last man to sign or not sign, and beginning tomorrow, another procurement opportunity arrives.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

50-MAN LIST (41, 32 signed, 8 RFA, 1 slide)

Holland’s year has given the group speed up front, more clarity and balance on defense, and, for this season at least, goaltending good enough to put them in a grand spot to make the postseason.

Gone in Holland’s first season: Milan Lucic, Tobias Rieder, Kyle Brodziak, Tyler Vesel, Colin Larkin, Sam Gagner, Jesse Puljujarvi*, Ty Rattie, Andrej Sekera, Joel Persson, Robin Norell, Ryan Mantha. *JP didn’t sign but Edmonton retains his rights.

Incoming during Holland’s first season: Andreas Athanasiou, James Neal, Joakim Nygard, Ryan Kuffner, Gaetan Haas, Alex Chiasson (re-signed), Josh Archibald, Raphael Lavoie (signed entry deal recently), Theodore Lennstrom, Markus Niemelainen, Philip Broberg, Filip Berglund.

Mike Smith, Riley Sheahan, Patrick Russell, Markus Granlund, Tomas Jurco, Josh Currie were signed, Tyler Ennis, Mike Green acquired, and all are free agents entering the offseason.

If Dave Tippett can find a way to get Tyler Benson into an NHL role next season, and accelerate Ryan McLeod’s development to the point where he’s playing NHL games by the end of the 2020-21 season, the Oilers will be close to balanced for the first time in one forever. If Evan Bouchard can make the jump, Holland will have excess defensemen he can market. I think both Holland and Tippett have done very well in year one.

GRAHAM MCPHEE

David Gregory, Central Scouting: You immediately notice his compete level for sure. He goes out and gives you everything he has each shift. To me, he’s a coach’s dream in a sense that you can play him a lot of situations and you know what you’re going to get out of him from his work ethic.

Let’s talk about skill. McPhee’s college career didn’t see enough at even strength to suggest he’ll flourish in the NHL eventually. Here are the even strength numbers for his career:

  • 2016-17: 39, 2-7-9 .231
  • 2017-18: 36, 6-5-11 .306
  • 2018-19: 29, 2-6-8 .276
  • 2019-20: 34, 5-5-10 .294

There were some major issues for Boston College during McPhee’s time there, the team spent over a year being unable to score much at all. Whatever McPhee’s abilities may be, the math doesn’t catch him in a good light. As a comparison, here are Aapeli Rasanen’s even strength numbers for BC during the same period:

  • 2017-18: 32, 3-9-12 .375
  • 2018-19: 33, 4-2-6 .182
  • 2019-20: 34, 6-9-15 .441

Rasanen spiked nicely in his junior season, but he’s heading for Kalpa in the Liiga next year. Edmonton has until next summer to sign him, the time in the Finnish pro league may give the Oilers are clearer view. His spike in scoring coincided with a move from center to wing, I need not tell you a righty two-way center would have high value to the franchise.

The free 90-day trial continues, I go back to the Dallas Stars days to identify just how many players Tippett helped along the way, and the players he may be able to help next year and beyond.

HERE COMES THE SUN 2020

It is complete and will publish at 8:30 Edmonton time tomorrow. There’s quite a lot of shuffling, the last post is the one where I slot the Euros. As there are no tournaments this year, math held all the power beyond a few late tips. There are 29 OHL, 22 WHL, 16 USHL 13 QMJHL and 11 SuperElite names among the 125 listed. I’ll have a mock, maybe two.

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OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: What part of “young”, “established” and “top-4” don’t you get?

I’ve been told he is a better prospect than Bouchard so he must be “young” and I’ve been told he’s a can’t miss 2nd pairing guy next year.

Just going by the inside intel I’m privy to…..

hunter1909

@ harpers hair

Checking the forecast comparison between Victoria B.C. and Cannes a place you compared Victoria to:

Victoria 15/9 light Rain

Cannes 24/16 Sunny

Yes it really compares well to the Cote D’Zur, Victoria B.C. lol

€√¥£€^$

Harpers Hair: Alex Chaisson is on his fifth NHL team.

It would seem four NHL General Managers value him far less than you do.

But what do they know?

As for your denigration of Norris and your personal attack I’ll just leave this here for you:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/josh-norris-tops-prospects-list-senators-system/

Chiasson turned a PTO into a contract, that is not something 85% of PTOs can say, and an even smaller percentage can say they turned that opportunity into more than $4,000,000.00.

Ken Holland signed him to that contract, but what does he know?

Denigration of Josh Norris? Hardly. Maybe he makes the team next year, but even if does, why does that make Colin White a Right Winger, even if Josh Norris appears to be much better on the dot in a very small sample size. I don’t deny his potential, I know the player fairly well. Just your line of argument makes little sense.

I believe you are making shit up to stir the pot and I am calling you on it. If that is a personal attack, then I don’t what “a personal attack” means.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Rafferty isn’t available via trade though.

What part of “young”, “established” and “top-4” don’t you get?

?

JimmyV1965

jp: Batherson and Ryan are the only RWs Ottawa has under control past next season. Yeah, why would they want another with top 6 potential?

Ottawa may not want to pay that price for Puljujarvi. We’ll have to wait and see. I’m not sure who’s going to give them a young, established top 4 D for pick #21 though..

Ya. I would like to know some names of the young top 4 dmen being traded for 21 OV. I guess Bear would fit into that group, but I wouldn’t trade him. Why develop a young dman for three or four years and then trade him just as he reaches the NHL?

JimmyV1965

Georges:
Here’s a more complete list of comps for AA.

Forwards who scored between .45 and .55 Pts/GP by the end of their fifth season in the NHL and their fifth seasonhas to be in 2010-11 or later. I’ve excluded players like AA who’ve just finished their 5th season in 19-20.

Player, Pts/GP by 5th season, GP after 5th season, Pts/GP after 5th season

Cam Atkinson, .55, 271, .75
Derick Brassard, .55, 577, .58
David Booth, .55, 227, .31
Bryan Little, .55, 487, .67
Rich Peverley, .55, 166, .54
Ryan Spooner, .55, 111, .45
Rickard Rakell, .55, 211, .73
Teuvo Teravainen, .54, 150, .93
Marcus Johansson, .54, 303, .59
Mika Zibanejad, .54, 267, .87
Jordan Staal, .54, 592, .57
William Karlsson, .53, 63, .73
Dave Bolland, .53, 212, .43
Reilly Smith, .53, 292, .70
Patrik Berglund, .53, 359, .38
Sergei Kostitsyn, .52, 46, .33
Tomas Hertl, .52, 125, .88
Clarke MacArthur, .52, 262, .59
Ryan Callahan, .51, 473, .51
Frans Nielsen, .51, 659, .53
Patrick O’Sullivan, .50, 23, .17
Craig Smith, .50, 302, .49
Steve Downie, .50, 162, .36
Elias Lindholm, .50, 151, .87
Michael Grabner, .50, 357, .38
Charlie Coyle, .50, 217, .50
Alexander Wennberg, .50, 57, .39
Nikolay Kulemin, .50, 318, .31
Mathieu Perreault, .50, 399, .53
Jakob Silfverberg, .49, 216, .56
Blake Comeau, .49, 607, .33
Alex Killorn, .49, 232, .59
Carl Soderberg, .49, 229, .53
David Jones, .49, 223, .33
Carl Hagelin, .49, 258, .38
Curtis Glencross, .49, 216, .62
Brandon Pirri, .49, 170, .41
Tyler Kennedy, .48, 201, .29
Phillip Danault, .48, 71, .66
Mason Raymond, .48, 218, .44
J.T. Miller, .47, 226, .78
Wayne Simmonds, .47, 542, .60
Brock Nelson, .47, 150, .71
Boone Jenner, .47, 147, .42
Ryan Strome, .47, 151, .62
Matt Read, .47, 94, .22
Colin Wilson, .47, 341, .44
Kevin Fiala, .47, 64, .84
Tanner Pearson, .46, 149, .48
Nick Bjugstad, .46, 159, .48
Cody Hodgson, .46, 39, .21
Josh Anderson, .46, 26, .15
Victor Rask, .46, 43, .30
Ville Leino, .46, 58, .26
Brayden Schenn, .45, 466, .74
Martin Hanzal, .45, 321, .56
Artem Anisimov, .45, 473, .51
Bryan Rust, .45, 55, 1.02
Vladislav Namestnikov, .45, 143, .43

– 31 of the 59 forwards on this list (53%) went on to score .5 Pts/GP or better after their 5th season. Compare those odds with the 10% chance of finding a .5 Pts/GP forward with a second round pick. Two second round picks would give you a 19% chance of finding at least one forward like AA. A 19% chance of finding AA level scoring 2 or more years down the road or a 53% chance of finding AA level scoring for the next few seasons.

– 71% of AA’s comp group went on to score .4 Pts/GP or better (solid 3rd line, low end 2nd line). About 14% of 2nd round forward picks between 2009 and 2016 have managed to do the same.

– 80% went on to score .35 Pts/GP or better (better than median NHL forward). About 18% of 2nd round forward picks between 2009 and 2016 have managed to do the same.

Trading 2 second round picks for AA is good business (very good business) for anyone who checks and values math. By the math, AA is a much better bet to fill the lineup needs of 2020 AND 2025 than 2 upcoming 2nd round picks. Even if the AA bet doesn’t work out, you have to make bets like this all day long if you’re serious about winning.

Nice post

oilersfan

jp,

And Bobby Ryan is 36 and a bad player
And Connor Brown is a 3rd line winger

who

Oil2Oilers: Toronto are desperate for Cap space and picks. They require puck moving RHD and value players with positive stats.

I believe Kapanen can play 3C, if not he can swap with Nuge on the wing who is over qualified for the role. Either way the Oilers are covered.

Don’t ever see Toronto making that trade.
Or Kapanen playing center.
Your point about Nuge is valid though.

Harpers Hair

€√¥£€^$: Not sure where you get “extreme” value, but most definitely value.

Ryan barely played this season before he had his issues, from what I understand his troubles started after he was healthy scratched for several weeks.He is a player I follow closely, the coach does not value him.He was only given ice time when he returned because the team was terrible and they had few options.Ryan’s career could be over, if teams are allowed CBO’s, if not he will likely be bought out….

White-Norris?That is purely 100% pulled-out-from-your-ass speculation.Maybe they both play at C, maybe Norris is not an NHL C, it’s way too soon to say.Besides, you clearly know nothing about this team.

Last year Benson, who is still younger than Batherson was also an AHL Allstar, if he had a better supporting cast, he would have made it again.What is your point?

Balcers played in the Allstar game this season, just like Benson and Bouchard did, but is not on an AHL Allstar Team like Batherson.

C’mon Trolly Trollerson keep on bringing the weak sauce.Yawn….

Alex Chaisson is on his fifth NHL team.

It would seem four NHL General Managers value him far less than you do.

But what do they know?

As for your denigration of Norris and your personal attack I’ll just leave this here for you:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/josh-norris-tops-prospects-list-senators-system/

Harpers Hair

OriginalPouzar: Rafferty isn’t available via trade though.

He would be for a first round pick.

€√¥£€^$

Harpers Hair: Bobby Ryan is a regular after going through the substance abuse program.

Batherson was an AHL all star and is more ready than Jesse.

Balcers plays both wings and was also an AHL all star.

White will likely also get bumped to RW with the emergence ofJosh Norris who was an AHL all star and rookie of the year.

And, if Chiasson offers the extreme value you’re suggesting, why would the Oilers even consider trading him?

Not sure where you get “extreme” value, but most definitely value.

Ryan barely played this season before he had his issues, from what I understand his troubles started after he was healthy scratched for several weeks. He is a player I follow closely, the coach does not value him. He was only given ice time when he returned because the team was terrible and they had few options. Ryan’s career could be over, if teams are allowed CBO’s, if not he will likely be bought out….

White-Norris? That is purely 100% pulled-out-from-your-ass speculation. Maybe they both play at C, maybe Norris is not an NHL C, it’s way too soon to say. Besides, you clearly know nothing about this team.

Last year Benson, who is still younger than Batherson was also an AHL Allstar, if he had a better supporting cast, he would have made it again. What is your point?

Balcers played in the Allstar game this season, just like Benson and Bouchard did, but is not on an AHL Allstar Team like Batherson.

C’mon Trolly Trollerson keep on bringing the weak sauce. Yawn….

Scungilli Slushy

Georges:
Here’s a more complete list of comps for AA.

Forwards who scored between .45 and .55 Pts/GP by the end of their fifth season in the NHL and their fifth seasonhas to be in 2010-11 or later. I’ve excluded players like AA who’ve just finished their 5th season in 19-20.

Player, Pts/GP by 5th season, GP after 5th season, Pts/GP after 5th season

Cam Atkinson, .55, 271, .75
Derick Brassard, .55, 577, .58
David Booth, .55, 227, .31
Bryan Little, .55, 487, .67
Rich Peverley, .55, 166, .54
Ryan Spooner, .55, 111, .45
Rickard Rakell, .55, 211, .73
Teuvo Teravainen, .54, 150, .93
Marcus Johansson, .54, 303, .59
Mika Zibanejad, .54, 267, .87
Jordan Staal, .54, 592, .57
William Karlsson, .53, 63, .73
Dave Bolland, .53, 212, .43
Reilly Smith, .53, 292, .70
Patrik Berglund, .53, 359, .38
Sergei Kostitsyn, .52, 46, .33
Tomas Hertl, .52, 125, .88
Clarke MacArthur, .52, 262, .59
Ryan Callahan, .51, 473, .51
Frans Nielsen, .51, 659, .53
Patrick O’Sullivan, .50, 23, .17
Craig Smith, .50, 302, .49
Steve Downie, .50, 162, .36
Elias Lindholm, .50, 151, .87
Michael Grabner, .50, 357, .38
Charlie Coyle, .50, 217, .50
Alexander Wennberg, .50, 57, .39
Nikolay Kulemin, .50, 318, .31
Mathieu Perreault, .50, 399, .53
Jakob Silfverberg, .49, 216, .56
Blake Comeau, .49, 607, .33
Alex Killorn, .49, 232, .59
Carl Soderberg, .49, 229, .53
David Jones, .49, 223, .33
Carl Hagelin, .49, 258, .38
Curtis Glencross, .49, 216, .62
Brandon Pirri, .49, 170, .41
Tyler Kennedy, .48, 201, .29
Phillip Danault, .48, 71, .66
Mason Raymond, .48, 218, .44
J.T. Miller, .47, 226, .78
Wayne Simmonds, .47, 542, .60
Brock Nelson, .47, 150, .71
Boone Jenner, .47, 147, .42
Ryan Strome, .47, 151, .62
Matt Read, .47, 94, .22
Colin Wilson, .47, 341, .44
Kevin Fiala, .47, 64, .84
Tanner Pearson, .46, 149, .48
Nick Bjugstad, .46, 159, .48
Cody Hodgson, .46, 39, .21
Josh Anderson, .46, 26, .15
Victor Rask, .46, 43, .30
Ville Leino, .46, 58, .26
Brayden Schenn, .45, 466, .74
Martin Hanzal, .45, 321, .56
Artem Anisimov, .45, 473, .51
Bryan Rust, .45, 55, 1.02
Vladislav Namestnikov, .45, 143, .43

– 31 of the 59 forwards on this list (53%) went on to score .5 Pts/GP or better after their 5th season. Compare those odds with the 10% chance of finding a .5 Pts/GP forward with a second round pick. Two second round picks would give you a 19% chance of finding at least one forward like AA. A 19% chance of finding AA level scoring 2 or more years down the road or a 53% chance of finding AA level scoring for the next few seasons.

– 71% of AA’s comp group went on to score .4 Pts/GP or better (solid 3rd line, low end 2nd line). About 14% of 2nd round forward picks between 2009 and 2016 have managed to do the same.

– 80% went on to score .35 Pts/GP or better (better than median NHL forward). About 18% of 2nd round forward picks between 2009 and 2016 have managed to do the same.

Trading 2 second round picks for AA is good business (very good business) for anyone who checks and values math. By the math, AA is a much better bet to fill the lineup needs of 2020 AND 2025 than 2 upcoming 2nd round picks. Even if the AA bet doesn’t work out, you have to make bets like this all day long if you’re serious about winning.

No team has found success that lead to a cup or perennial contention by only one of of the 3 methods of acquiring players- draft, free agency, trade.

It’s always a combination, some using one more than other teams did.

Essentially this speaks to good management, limiting draft fails, developing well, good cap management and retaining equity in trades.

The Oilers were poorly managed for years overall and we’ve seen the results. Holland has done more in a year building the team than anyone since Sather. Yes he inherited significant players, but the point is he knew where to improve and didn’t shoot his feet off making deals.

Hopefully he keeps building .

jp

Harpers Hair: They already have one…Batherson…who they drafted in the fourth round.

Why would they spend a first round pick on a temperamental misfit with a meddling agent who is trending like Nail Yakupov.

If anyone wants that pick I would suggest a young but established top 4D would be the starting asking price.

Batherson and Ryan are the only RWs Ottawa has under control past next season. Yeah, why would they want another with top 6 potential?

Ottawa may not want to pay that price for Puljujarvi. We’ll have to wait and see. I’m not sure who’s going to give them a young, established top 4 D for pick #21 though..

OriginalPouzar

Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan

The MLBPA delivered a proposal to MLB on Sunday afternoon, a source familiar with it tells ESPN. It includes 114-game season that would end October 31, the right to opt out of the season for all players and potential deferral of salaries if 2020 the postseason were canceled.For the players opting out: those who are considered “high-risk” would receive salary, whereas others would receive service time only.

Further, players would receive $100 million total advance during the new spring training.

Also: MLBPA proposes two years of playoff expansion.

The inclusion of potential deferrals by players is an olive branch, even if it does apply just to a canceled postseason.

It would defer $100M total, applied to players making $10M+ before proration, and would do so with interest to make players whole. It opens the door to more.

OriginalPouzar

Harpers Hair: They already have one…Batherson…who they drafted in the fourth round.

Why would they spend a first round pick on a temperamental misfit with a meddling agent who is trending like Nail Yakupov.

If anyone wants that pick I would suggest a young but established top 4D would be the starting asking price.

Rafferty isn’t available via trade though.

OriginalPouzar

Puljujarvi will likely cost apx $1M and, from most accounts, seems highly likely to be able to step in to a 3rd line if not a middle six role in the NHL right away.

Ottawa has some nice promising young talent that are approaching NHL readiness but they aren’t so full up with established NHL talent in their top and middle six that adding yet another wouldn’t be of great value to then – developed and at a cheap cap hit.

Acquisition cost aside, I believe the Senators would be interested in the asset itself notwithstanding Bobby Ryan and Rudolfs Balcers

Harpers Hair

jp: So Doober rates Puljujarvi with the greater upside and Batherson as the greater certainty of being an NHLer. Sounds reasonable considering Puljujarvi played the season in Europe.

https://dobberprospects.com/player/jesse-puljujarvi/

Back to the original point, you asked why Ottawa would trade for Puljujarvi when they have Ryan, Brown, White, Batherson and Balcers.

Only Ryan, Brown and Batherson are regular RWs. Batherson is a good prospect, Brown is a year from UFA and Ryan is a 33 year old boat anchor with personal issues. You think that’s a RW depth chart that wouldn’t welcome a 22 year old with high end potential?

They already have one…Batherson…who they drafted in the fourth round.

Why would they spend a first round pick on a temperamental misfit with a meddling agent who is trending like Nail Yakupov.

If anyone wants that pick I would suggest a young but established top 4D would be the starting asking price.

jp

Harpers Hair: https://dobberprospects.com/player/drake-batherson/

So Doober rates Puljujarvi with the greater upside and Batherson as the greater certainty of being an NHLer. Sounds reasonable considering Puljujarvi played the season in Europe.

https://dobberprospects.com/player/jesse-puljujarvi/

Back to the original point, you asked why Ottawa would trade for Puljujarvi when they have Ryan, Brown, White, Batherson and Balcers.

Only Ryan, Brown and Batherson are regular RWs. Batherson is a good prospect, Brown is a year from UFA and Ryan is a 33 year old boat anchor with personal issues. You think that’s a RW depth chart that wouldn’t welcome a 22 year old with high end potential?

Harpers Hair

jp: I don’t know how it turns out, do you? Most of Puljujarvi’s story hasn’t been written.

He’s the same age or younger than the players you’re comparing him to. He’s played 139 NHL games, all before he turned 21 and has a slightly negative GF% relative to his team. Then he had a good season in the 5th best league in the world.

Batherson and Balcers played most/all of their games after turning 21 and both had sub 40% GF%. Both have worse GF% and GF% relative to team than Puljujarvi for their careers.

You said Batherson is more ready than Jesse. What’s the evidence for that? (it seems you won’t claim the same for Balcers, which is fair)

https://dobberprospects.com/player/drake-batherson/

jp

Reja: Kevin McClelland might of arguably scored the biggest goal in the Oilers storied franchise.

Just saying that Chiasson doesn’t have any history for putting up points in his playoff career.

FWIW Chiasson’s playoff PPG is 0.13, McLelland’s was 0.30.

jp

Harpers Hair: How did that turn out?

I don’t know how it turns out, do you? Most of Puljujarvi’s story hasn’t been written.

He’s the same age or younger than the players you’re comparing him to. He’s played 139 NHL games, all before he turned 21 and has a slightly negative GF% relative to his team. Then he had a good season in the 5th best league in the world.

Batherson and Balcers played most/all of their games after turning 21 and both had sub 40% GF%. Both have worse GF% and GF% relative to team than Puljujarvi for their careers.

You said Batherson is more ready than Jesse. What’s the evidence for that? (it seems you won’t claim the same for Balcers, which is fair)

Oil2Oilers

OriginalPouzar: Curious – with Benning traded, what is your plan for his replacement? Sign Green? Sign (or acquire) another veteran? Slot Bouchard in and hope for no injuries on the right side?

I love Benning as a player and consider it a sacrifice trading him. Yes, I assume the Oilers will resign Green on a one year contract. Having Bouchard as injury cover and them beating him out on quality of play, leading to them both being tested and ready for the playoffs next year. I wish Bergland was also in North America for extra cover.

Harpers Hair

jp: Yes but he’s also played 139 games in the best league in the world. The large majority of them at a younger age than Batherson or Balcers.

How did that turn out?

jp

Harpers Hair: Jesse was playing in the the fifth or sixth best league in the world.

Huge grain of salt.

Yes but he’s also played 139 games in the best league in the world. The large majority of them at a younger age than Batherson or Balcers.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair:
Larry Brooks on playoff teams signing “ringers”.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/30/nhls-attempt-to-change-popular-rule-may-spark-restart-tension/

If they don’t continue with the rule that’s a huge and unfair blow to the Wild. Kaprizov was ready to come over. If they don’t let him play he’s not coming next season either

Scungilli Slushy

Harpers Hair: Jesse was playing in the the fifth or sixth best league in the world.

Huge grain of salt.

Canadians eat too much salt.

A huge grain if salt is a bad idea. Posited to a Lowetidee.

Therefore you don’t like Lowetide.

pts2pndr

Victoria Oil: Could we trade Krusty for a bucket of pucks straight up? Or would we have to sweeten the pot by adding a couple of steak dinners? Or would we have to throw in a weekend at Jasper Park Lodge? Or a week in Hawaii?

If he has a good playoffs and given his price point/cap number not withstanding, he may be quite easy to move. If not, at the next trade deadline he will hold good value for any team needing some insurance at D. Though this is not ideal, it is at this point that his value will be highest.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: Yeah he scored a big goal for the Caps when they won the cup from what I remember.

He did score a goal – one of two points he had in 16 playoff games before riding the pine of the rest of the 3rd round and the finals.

I do think he can bring some valuable experience to the Oilers for the playoffs but I wouldn’t be using his Caps’ playoff performance as an example of him being a playoff producer.

OriginalPouzar

Klima’s_Bucket:
What’s the science of drafting goalies?

They take a long time to develop and Edmonton has struggled to develop them.

There are loads of free agent goalies every summer?

Why not just sign guys from the bargain bin in the summer and hope they catch fire instead of firing blanks on them at the draft?

This summer has:
Dell, Brossoit, Elliott, Talbot, Smith, Khudobin, Greiss, Lehner, Markstrom, Crawford & Holtby available.

Last Summer:
Pickard, Kinkaid, Smith, Talbot, McIlhenny, Mrazek, Lehner, Varlamov, Bobrovsky

Well, yes, however the organization does need to place goalies on their minor league teams.

Reja

digger50: Half the posters on here are so lucky to have you around oh wise one.

Your only young once but you can be immature forever.

Harpers Hair

jp: Batherson is the same age as Puljujarvi and was outscored by 11 goals at even strengthin 23 games this season.

Balcers is a year older than Puljujarvi.

Your original point about Puljujarvi’s value to the Sens is valid, they have other options. Just not sure your valuation of the players is shared by anyone off Vancouver Island.

Jesse was playing in the the fifth or sixth best league in the world.

Huge grain of salt.

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM: Arizona has a worse cap situation than Edmonton. Not a chance they’ll be able to absorb Russell’s $4M hit.

Agreed – We read quite often the Rusty will be easily moveable to a team that needs to get to the cap floor or a cash poor team but, at the end of the day, there are very very few teams that aren’t limited by the cap ceiling – 2/3 of the teams this year were using LTIR overage relief or within a few hundred grand of the cap.

I believe Florida’s owner has mandated salary cuts for next season so maybe they do a fire sale and someone like Rusty is of use to them – of course, his NTC could put the kibosh on a deal out east.

Reja

jp: Not try to be negative about Chiasson but that was the only playoff goal he scored for the Caps and he’s scored 30-2-2-4 for his career.

Kevin McClelland might of arguably scored the biggest goal in the Oilers storied franchise.

jp

Harpers Hair:

Batherson was an AHL all star and is more ready than Jesse.

Balcers plays both wings and was also an AHL all star.

Batherson is the same age as Puljujarvi and was outscored by 11 goals at even strength in 23 games this season.

Balcers is a year older than Puljujarvi.

Your original point about Puljujarvi’s value to the Sens is valid, they have other options. Just not sure your valuation of the players is shared by anyone off Vancouver Island.

Harpers Hair

Ryan:
Harpers Hair,

What about Jace Hawryluk? He’s a RHC, but played RW according to Daily Faceoff.

For being such a disaster, the Senators actually draft really well. It will be interesting to see what they do with their million draft picks.

I’ve following Hawryluk for quite a while and despite not popping out of the gate, he has huge potential.

Just as much as Jesse…without the attitude and meddling agent.

Harpers Hair

JimmyV1965: This may all be true, but I still can’t see Ottawa giving up the 21 OV for JP and Chiasson. I’m sure they could get far better value with a first round draft pick. Coaches and GMs might maybe see Chiasson as a valuable addition, but they aren’t giving up valuable assets to get him. So the trade at best is JP for the 21 OV

True.

And I can see Ottawa using the 21 and a second round pick or two to move up in the first round and draft an impact player.

jp

Reja: Yeah he scored a big goal for the Caps when they won the cup from what I remember.

Not try to be negative about Chiasson but that was the only playoff goal he scored for the Caps and he’s scored 30-2-2-4 for his career.

Ryan

Harpers Hair,

What about Jace Hawryluk? He’s a RHC, but played RW according to Daily Faceoff.

For being such a disaster, the Senators actually draft really well. It will be interesting to see what they do with their million draft picks.

OriginalPouzar

Brantford Boy: I’m not so sure about this… the coach sure seemed to like him, as did I… wish he could have scored but he played well otherwise… I think if we keep Khaira you keep Russell too…

Not sure what keeping Kharia has to do with Russell?

Khaira is signed for next year and P. Russell is a UFA.

Russell definitely earned the trust of his coach but, at the same time, his role on the team and his spot in the lineup evaporated as the season went on. A fine year for the Dane but I think Holland will aim higher for this 13th/14th forward.

OriginalPouzar

Clarkenstein:
Gone in Holland’s first season: Milan Lucic, Tobias Rieder, Kyle Brodziak, Tyler Vesel, Colin Larkin, Sam Gagner, Jesse Puljujarvi*, Ty Rattie, Andrej Sekera, Joel Persson, Robin Norell, Ryan Mantha. *JP didn’t sign but Edmonton retains his rights.

20/20 hindsight is what we do best for sure but to think any management team thought virtually any of these players were going to contribute to a Championship hockey club is just bizarre. Frustrating really.

Sam Gagner was acquired to get rid of Ryan Spooner – not sure why acquiring Gagner would be frustrating given the context.

Drafting Puljujarvi – Frustrating?

Rieder was a fine bet as a cheap UFA – didn’t work out but a small bet not working out isn’t really frustrating to me.

Joel Persson – another small bet with no acquisition cost – didn’t work out but, again, just a small bet

Signing Mantha after a beauty over-age season and the Rangers not being able to sign him – that was a solid bet and he was in the conversation with the likes of Bear and Jones prior to a freak eye issue ending his career.

You provided a list of assets that didn’t work out vis-a-vis a championship team but I would presume that there are 30 other teams in the league with a similar list.

I’m not trying to “nit pick” but I’m not sure why this would be frustrating?

Signing Lucic – yes, that one was frustrating on the date of the signing.

OriginalPouzar

Oil2Oilers:
It is excellent that we will likely get a few more games to evaluate Athanasiou, fully healthy and after a mini training camp.

As the summer off season is being pushed to a fall off season I have upped my 3 things for Holland to rule the summer to 6 to rule the fall;

1. Trade Puljujarvi + Chiason to Ottawa for the last of there 3 first round picks.

2. Trade Benning + found money 3d to Toronto for Kapanen

3. Draft Seth Jarvis

4. Draft Justin Barron

5. Sign Bear to long term contract for medium money.

6. Trade Russell for a bucket of pucks post bonus. Arizona.might use a vet LHD for $1.5M is real dollars.

Oilers would end the off season with 2 excellent long term prospects and a talented age appropriate third line center.

Curious – with Benning traded, what is your plan for his replacement? Sign Green? Sign (or acquire) another veteran? Slot Bouchard in and hope for no injuries on the right side?

I would also love to sign Bear long term for medium money but I think that ship has sailed and, frankly, like the Nurse situation a few year’s back, I don’t think there will be cap space to do it. I think 1 X $2.15M (give or take) will be the Bear deal.

Arizona was a cap team this past season – I know Hall comes off the books but they weren’t a team in need of big cap hit but low money outlay this past season. Their issue is scoring goals so I’m not sure they want to spend $4M of cap space on a depth d-man, even if he’s cheap cash-wise.

Harpers Hair

€√¥£€^$: See my comments above.

JP and even AC can also play LW.

Today Chiasson is a better player (not including White) than all but maybe Connor Brown on this list, but Chiasson has scored 4 more goals than Brown in the last 3 seasons in fewer games and much fewer minutes.AC scored 42 goals in 199 games to 38 in 235 games.Brown scored 4 power play goals, 1 short-handed goal, while averaging 16:08 per game; Chiasson scored 15 ppg’s and 3 shg’s, playing 14:07 per game.That equates to 980 less minutes played in the last 3 seasons by Chiasson vs Brown.He might seem easy to dismiss, but Chiasson is a very useful player.A GM and coach will see him in this light, as well.

I can see an easy path for JP as a 1st or 2nd line RW and AC as a 3rd line all-situations calming veteran presence RW who could slide up and down the roster as necessary.

Bobby Ryan is a regular after going through the substance abuse program.

Batherson was an AHL all star and is more ready than Jesse.

Balcers plays both wings and was also an AHL all star.

White will likely also get bumped to RW with the emergence of Josh Norris who was an AHL all star and rookie of the year.

And, if Chiasson offers the extreme value you’re suggesting, why would the Oilers even consider trading him?

jtblack

Klima’s_Bucket:
What’s the science of drafting goalies?

They take a long time to develop and Edmonton has struggled to develop them.

There are loads of free agent goalies every summer?

Why not just sign guys from the bargain bin in the summer and hope they catch fire instead of firing blanks on them at the draft?

This summer has:
Dell, Brossoit, Elliott, Talbot, Smith, Khudobin, Greiss, Lehner, Markstrom, Crawford & Holtby available.

Last Summer:
Pickard, Kinkaid, Smith, Talbot, McIlhenny, Mrazek, Lehner, Varlamov, Bobrovsky

+100.

You only Draft them to have them in your system …

Outside of Price, who was drafted 15 yrs ago, there are very sure few things.

MOST cup winning goalies are 3rd, 4th, 5th rounders.

Also why I think Skinner may be the Goakie when Edm wins the Cup (2024)

JimmyV1965

€√¥£€^$: See my comments above.

JP and even AC can also play LW.

Today Chiasson is a better player (not including White) than all but maybe Connor Brown on this list, but Chiasson has scored 4 more goals than Brown in the last 3 seasons in fewer games and much fewer minutes.AC scored 42 goals in 199 games to 38 in 235 games.Brown scored 4 power play goals, 1 short-handed goal, while averaging 16:08 per game; Chiasson scored 15 ppg’s and 3 shg’s, playing 14:07 per game.That equates to 980 less minutes played in the last 3 seasons by Chiasson vs Brown.He might seem easy to dismiss, but Chiasson is a very useful player.A GM and coach will see him in this light, as well.

I can see an easy path for JP as a 1st or 2nd line RW and AC as a 3rd line all-situations calming veteran presence RW who could slide up and down the roster as necessary.

This may all be true, but I still can’t see Ottawa giving up the 21 OV for JP and Chiasson. I’m sure they could get far better value with a first round draft pick. Coaches and GMs might maybe see Chiasson as a valuable addition, but they aren’t giving up valuable assets to get him. So the trade at best is JP for the 21 OV

digger50

Reja: After Connolly pulled out and took his talents to south bend Ken went with the well liked and useful Chase on a fair contract and of course this was a couple of weeks before the Lucic trade. Iget a kick how half the posters on here havetheir panties in such a knot for 2.2 million play up and down the line-up professional.

Half the posters on here are so lucky to have you around oh wise one.

ArmchairGM

OriginalPouzar: Yup.

It some (many) cases, the argument can be made that its beneficial in the medium term for the ELC to not slide and to burn a year as that second contract will come a bit earlier and the player should be cheaper.

3 years from not I presume and anticipate that Bouchard will be very expensive on his 2nd contract, however, with that said, 3 years of this player between $894K and $1.6M (depending on bonuses vested) should be a major value contract for the Oilers and could be a material part in a championship.

3 years of ELC will also coincide with the end of Neal’s contract and all retained salary and buyout cap hits. There will effectively be zero bad money on the books and the teams key players locked up on value deals. I like the 3 years vs 2 for that reason.

Oil2Oilers

OriginalPouzar: With that said, I would like to ask what the waivers comment relates to? Is that simply because Bouch will be exempt from waivers and a guy like Lagesson will be subject thereto?

Yes, it was Lagesson that I had in mind. But your larger point of the famed overripening of players by Ken Holland and how it may be a good thing for Bouchard it’s also a consideration.

Oil2Oilers

who: Two questions.
Who is your age appropriate 3rd line center?
Do you really believe Benning and a 3rd rounder gets you Kapanen?

Toronto are desperate for Cap space and picks. They require puck moving RHD and value players with positive stats.

I believe Kapanen can play 3C, if not he can swap with Nuge on the wing who is over qualified for the role. Either way the Oilers are covered.

Oil2Oilers

jtblack: I can get behind something like this

Who is found money 3D?

Sorry I was unclear, the Neal compensation pick no longer going to Calgary.

Reja

€√¥£€^$:
Reja,

He will definitely show his value come play-off time.

Yeah he scored a big goal for the Caps when they won the cup from what I remember.