It’s always interesting to see a new general manager suss through the closets of the major and minor roster, plus the draft picks who have to be signed each summer. So far, Ken Holland has hit ‘retain’ surprisingly often, has one more player to decide on this summer.
Along with signing his own second-round selection from last summer (Raphael Lavoie), Holland inked Swedish free-agent blue Theodor Lennstrom plus two 2016 draft picks (Markus Niemelainen, Filip Berglund). Now, Graham McPhee is the last man to sign or not sign, and beginning tomorrow, another procurement opportunity arrives.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett’s track record in developing young players
- Jonathan Willis: Misguided priorities helped turn the Oilers’ 2010 rebuild into a debacle
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It’s what’s best for the league’: Oilers accept challenge of play-in series
- Lowetide: Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Six bold (and not so bold) predictions as the Oilers prepare for the Blackhawks
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers facing a bonus penalty for 2020-21 but the news isn’t all bad
- Jonathan Willis: Multiple choice: What might an Oilers trade at the 2020 NHL Draft look like?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers return to play guide: How the NHL’s 24-team format impacts Edmonton
- Lowetide: Mike Green’s playoff role and possible future with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ most likely recalls from Bakersfield for the playoff run
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We rallied and regrouped’: How the Oilers won the 1990 Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto represents ‘Money Puck’ value for NHL teams
- Lowetide: Exploring hidden-gem draft options for the Edmonton Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He set his place in history’: On Bill Ranford’s Conn Smythe run, 30 years later
- Jonathan Willis: Why NHL teams should gamble on defencemen over forwards later in the draft
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland should shop for picks at the draft
50-MAN LIST (41, 32 signed, 8 RFA, 1 slide)
Holland’s year has given the group speed up front, more clarity and balance on defense, and, for this season at least, goaltending good enough to put them in a grand spot to make the postseason.
Gone in Holland’s first season: Milan Lucic, Tobias Rieder, Kyle Brodziak, Tyler Vesel, Colin Larkin, Sam Gagner, Jesse Puljujarvi*, Ty Rattie, Andrej Sekera, Joel Persson, Robin Norell, Ryan Mantha. *JP didn’t sign but Edmonton retains his rights.
Incoming during Holland’s first season: Andreas Athanasiou, James Neal, Joakim Nygard, Ryan Kuffner, Gaetan Haas, Alex Chiasson (re-signed), Josh Archibald, Raphael Lavoie (signed entry deal recently), Theodore Lennstrom, Markus Niemelainen, Philip Broberg, Filip Berglund.
Mike Smith, Riley Sheahan, Patrick Russell, Markus Granlund, Tomas Jurco, Josh Currie were signed, Tyler Ennis, Mike Green acquired, and all are free agents entering the offseason.
If Dave Tippett can find a way to get Tyler Benson into an NHL role next season, and accelerate Ryan McLeod’s development to the point where he’s playing NHL games by the end of the 2020-21 season, the Oilers will be close to balanced for the first time in one forever. If Evan Bouchard can make the jump, Holland will have excess defensemen he can market. I think both Holland and Tippett have done very well in year one.
GRAHAM MCPHEE
David Gregory, Central Scouting: You immediately notice his compete level for sure. He goes out and gives you everything he has each shift. To me, he’s a coach’s dream in a sense that you can play him a lot of situations and you know what you’re going to get out of him from his work ethic.
Let’s talk about skill. McPhee’s college career didn’t see enough at even strength to suggest he’ll flourish in the NHL eventually. Here are the even strength numbers for his career:
- 2016-17: 39, 2-7-9 .231
- 2017-18: 36, 6-5-11 .306
- 2018-19: 29, 2-6-8 .276
- 2019-20: 34, 5-5-10 .294
There were some major issues for Boston College during McPhee’s time there, the team spent over a year being unable to score much at all. Whatever McPhee’s abilities may be, the math doesn’t catch him in a good light. As a comparison, here are Aapeli Rasanen’s even strength numbers for BC during the same period:
- 2017-18: 32, 3-9-12 .375
- 2018-19: 33, 4-2-6 .182
- 2019-20: 34, 6-9-15 .441
Rasanen spiked nicely in his junior season, but he’s heading for Kalpa in the Liiga next year. Edmonton has until next summer to sign him, the time in the Finnish pro league may give the Oilers are clearer view. His spike in scoring coincided with a move from center to wing, I need not tell you a righty two-way center would have high value to the franchise.
The free 90-day trial continues, I go back to the Dallas Stars days to identify just how many players Tippett helped along the way, and the players he may be able to help next year and beyond.
HERE COMES THE SUN 2020
It is complete and will publish at 8:30 Edmonton time tomorrow. There’s quite a lot of shuffling, the last post is the one where I slot the Euros. As there are no tournaments this year, math held all the power beyond a few late tips. There are 29 OHL, 22 WHL, 16 USHL 13 QMJHL and 11 SuperElite names among the 125 listed. I’ll have a mock, maybe two.
I’ve been told he is a better prospect than Bouchard so he must be “young” and I’ve been told he’s a can’t miss 2nd pairing guy next year.
Just going by the inside intel I’m privy to…..
@ harpers hair
Checking the forecast comparison between Victoria B.C. and Cannes a place you compared Victoria to:
Victoria 15/9 light Rain
Cannes 24/16 Sunny
Yes it really compares well to the Cote D’Zur, Victoria B.C. lol
Chiasson turned a PTO into a contract, that is not something 85% of PTOs can say, and an even smaller percentage can say they turned that opportunity into more than $4,000,000.00.
Ken Holland signed him to that contract, but what does he know?
Denigration of Josh Norris? Hardly. Maybe he makes the team next year, but even if does, why does that make Colin White a Right Winger, even if Josh Norris appears to be much better on the dot in a very small sample size. I don’t deny his potential, I know the player fairly well. Just your line of argument makes little sense.
I believe you are making shit up to stir the pot and I am calling you on it. If that is a personal attack, then I don’t what “a personal attack” means.
What part of “young”, “established” and “top-4” don’t you get?
?
Ya. I would like to know some names of the young top 4 dmen being traded for 21 OV. I guess Bear would fit into that group, but I wouldn’t trade him. Why develop a young dman for three or four years and then trade him just as he reaches the NHL?
Nice post
jp,
And Bobby Ryan is 36 and a bad player
And Connor Brown is a 3rd line winger
Don’t ever see Toronto making that trade.
Or Kapanen playing center.
Your point about Nuge is valid though.
Alex Chaisson is on his fifth NHL team.
It would seem four NHL General Managers value him far less than you do.
But what do they know?
As for your denigration of Norris and your personal attack I’ll just leave this here for you:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/josh-norris-tops-prospects-list-senators-system/
He would be for a first round pick.
Not sure where you get “extreme” value, but most definitely value.
Ryan barely played this season before he had his issues, from what I understand his troubles started after he was healthy scratched for several weeks. He is a player I follow closely, the coach does not value him. He was only given ice time when he returned because the team was terrible and they had few options. Ryan’s career could be over, if teams are allowed CBO’s, if not he will likely be bought out….
White-Norris? That is purely 100% pulled-out-from-your-ass speculation. Maybe they both play at C, maybe Norris is not an NHL C, it’s way too soon to say. Besides, you clearly know nothing about this team.
Last year Benson, who is still younger than Batherson was also an AHL Allstar, if he had a better supporting cast, he would have made it again. What is your point?
Balcers played in the Allstar game this season, just like Benson and Bouchard did, but is not on an AHL Allstar Team like Batherson.
C’mon Trolly Trollerson keep on bringing the weak sauce. Yawn….
No team has found success that lead to a cup or perennial contention by only one of of the 3 methods of acquiring players- draft, free agency, trade.
It’s always a combination, some using one more than other teams did.
Essentially this speaks to good management, limiting draft fails, developing well, good cap management and retaining equity in trades.
The Oilers were poorly managed for years overall and we’ve seen the results. Holland has done more in a year building the team than anyone since Sather. Yes he inherited significant players, but the point is he knew where to improve and didn’t shoot his feet off making deals.
Hopefully he keeps building .
Batherson and Ryan are the only RWs Ottawa has under control past next season. Yeah, why would they want another with top 6 potential?
Ottawa may not want to pay that price for Puljujarvi. We’ll have to wait and see. I’m not sure who’s going to give them a young, established top 4 D for pick #21 though..
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
The MLBPA delivered a proposal to MLB on Sunday afternoon, a source familiar with it tells ESPN. It includes 114-game season that would end October 31, the right to opt out of the season for all players and potential deferral of salaries if 2020 the postseason were canceled.For the players opting out: those who are considered “high-risk” would receive salary, whereas others would receive service time only.
Further, players would receive $100 million total advance during the new spring training.
Also: MLBPA proposes two years of playoff expansion.
The inclusion of potential deferrals by players is an olive branch, even if it does apply just to a canceled postseason.
It would defer $100M total, applied to players making $10M+ before proration, and would do so with interest to make players whole. It opens the door to more.
Rafferty isn’t available via trade though.
Puljujarvi will likely cost apx $1M and, from most accounts, seems highly likely to be able to step in to a 3rd line if not a middle six role in the NHL right away.
Ottawa has some nice promising young talent that are approaching NHL readiness but they aren’t so full up with established NHL talent in their top and middle six that adding yet another wouldn’t be of great value to then – developed and at a cheap cap hit.
Acquisition cost aside, I believe the Senators would be interested in the asset itself notwithstanding Bobby Ryan and Rudolfs Balcers
They already have one…Batherson…who they drafted in the fourth round.
Why would they spend a first round pick on a temperamental misfit with a meddling agent who is trending like Nail Yakupov.
If anyone wants that pick I would suggest a young but established top 4D would be the starting asking price.
So Doober rates Puljujarvi with the greater upside and Batherson as the greater certainty of being an NHLer. Sounds reasonable considering Puljujarvi played the season in Europe.
https://dobberprospects.com/player/jesse-puljujarvi/
Back to the original point, you asked why Ottawa would trade for Puljujarvi when they have Ryan, Brown, White, Batherson and Balcers.
Only Ryan, Brown and Batherson are regular RWs. Batherson is a good prospect, Brown is a year from UFA and Ryan is a 33 year old boat anchor with personal issues. You think that’s a RW depth chart that wouldn’t welcome a 22 year old with high end potential?
https://dobberprospects.com/player/drake-batherson/
Just saying that Chiasson doesn’t have any history for putting up points in his playoff career.
FWIW Chiasson’s playoff PPG is 0.13, McLelland’s was 0.30.
I don’t know how it turns out, do you? Most of Puljujarvi’s story hasn’t been written.
He’s the same age or younger than the players you’re comparing him to. He’s played 139 NHL games, all before he turned 21 and has a slightly negative GF% relative to his team. Then he had a good season in the 5th best league in the world.
Batherson and Balcers played most/all of their games after turning 21 and both had sub 40% GF%. Both have worse GF% and GF% relative to team than Puljujarvi for their careers.
You said Batherson is more ready than Jesse. What’s the evidence for that? (it seems you won’t claim the same for Balcers, which is fair)
I love Benning as a player and consider it a sacrifice trading him. Yes, I assume the Oilers will resign Green on a one year contract. Having Bouchard as injury cover and them beating him out on quality of play, leading to them both being tested and ready for the playoffs next year. I wish Bergland was also in North America for extra cover.
How did that turn out?
Yes but he’s also played 139 games in the best league in the world. The large majority of them at a younger age than Batherson or Balcers.
If they don’t continue with the rule that’s a huge and unfair blow to the Wild. Kaprizov was ready to come over. If they don’t let him play he’s not coming next season either
Canadians eat too much salt.
A huge grain if salt is a bad idea. Posited to a Lowetidee.
Therefore you don’t like Lowetide.
If he has a good playoffs and given his price point/cap number not withstanding, he may be quite easy to move. If not, at the next trade deadline he will hold good value for any team needing some insurance at D. Though this is not ideal, it is at this point that his value will be highest.
He did score a goal – one of two points he had in 16 playoff games before riding the pine of the rest of the 3rd round and the finals.
I do think he can bring some valuable experience to the Oilers for the playoffs but I wouldn’t be using his Caps’ playoff performance as an example of him being a playoff producer.
Well, yes, however the organization does need to place goalies on their minor league teams.
Your only young once but you can be immature forever.
Jesse was playing in the the fifth or sixth best league in the world.
Huge grain of salt.
Agreed – We read quite often the Rusty will be easily moveable to a team that needs to get to the cap floor or a cash poor team but, at the end of the day, there are very very few teams that aren’t limited by the cap ceiling – 2/3 of the teams this year were using LTIR overage relief or within a few hundred grand of the cap.
I believe Florida’s owner has mandated salary cuts for next season so maybe they do a fire sale and someone like Rusty is of use to them – of course, his NTC could put the kibosh on a deal out east.
Kevin McClelland might of arguably scored the biggest goal in the Oilers storied franchise.
Batherson is the same age as Puljujarvi and was outscored by 11 goals at even strength in 23 games this season.
Balcers is a year older than Puljujarvi.
Your original point about Puljujarvi’s value to the Sens is valid, they have other options. Just not sure your valuation of the players is shared by anyone off Vancouver Island.
I’ve following Hawryluk for quite a while and despite not popping out of the gate, he has huge potential.
Just as much as Jesse…without the attitude and meddling agent.
True.
And I can see Ottawa using the 21 and a second round pick or two to move up in the first round and draft an impact player.
Not try to be negative about Chiasson but that was the only playoff goal he scored for the Caps and he’s scored 30-2-2-4 for his career.
Harpers Hair,
What about Jace Hawryluk? He’s a RHC, but played RW according to Daily Faceoff.
For being such a disaster, the Senators actually draft really well. It will be interesting to see what they do with their million draft picks.
Not sure what keeping Kharia has to do with Russell?
Khaira is signed for next year and P. Russell is a UFA.
Russell definitely earned the trust of his coach but, at the same time, his role on the team and his spot in the lineup evaporated as the season went on. A fine year for the Dane but I think Holland will aim higher for this 13th/14th forward.
Sam Gagner was acquired to get rid of Ryan Spooner – not sure why acquiring Gagner would be frustrating given the context.
Drafting Puljujarvi – Frustrating?
Rieder was a fine bet as a cheap UFA – didn’t work out but a small bet not working out isn’t really frustrating to me.
Joel Persson – another small bet with no acquisition cost – didn’t work out but, again, just a small bet
Signing Mantha after a beauty over-age season and the Rangers not being able to sign him – that was a solid bet and he was in the conversation with the likes of Bear and Jones prior to a freak eye issue ending his career.
You provided a list of assets that didn’t work out vis-a-vis a championship team but I would presume that there are 30 other teams in the league with a similar list.
I’m not trying to “nit pick” but I’m not sure why this would be frustrating?
Signing Lucic – yes, that one was frustrating on the date of the signing.
Curious – with Benning traded, what is your plan for his replacement? Sign Green? Sign (or acquire) another veteran? Slot Bouchard in and hope for no injuries on the right side?
I would also love to sign Bear long term for medium money but I think that ship has sailed and, frankly, like the Nurse situation a few year’s back, I don’t think there will be cap space to do it. I think 1 X $2.15M (give or take) will be the Bear deal.
Arizona was a cap team this past season – I know Hall comes off the books but they weren’t a team in need of big cap hit but low money outlay this past season. Their issue is scoring goals so I’m not sure they want to spend $4M of cap space on a depth d-man, even if he’s cheap cash-wise.
Bobby Ryan is a regular after going through the substance abuse program.
Batherson was an AHL all star and is more ready than Jesse.
Balcers plays both wings and was also an AHL all star.
White will likely also get bumped to RW with the emergence of Josh Norris who was an AHL all star and rookie of the year.
And, if Chiasson offers the extreme value you’re suggesting, why would the Oilers even consider trading him?
+100.
You only Draft them to have them in your system …
Outside of Price, who was drafted 15 yrs ago, there are very sure few things.
MOST cup winning goalies are 3rd, 4th, 5th rounders.
Also why I think Skinner may be the Goakie when Edm wins the Cup (2024)
This may all be true, but I still can’t see Ottawa giving up the 21 OV for JP and Chiasson. I’m sure they could get far better value with a first round draft pick. Coaches and GMs might maybe see Chiasson as a valuable addition, but they aren’t giving up valuable assets to get him. So the trade at best is JP for the 21 OV
Half the posters on here are so lucky to have you around oh wise one.
3 years of ELC will also coincide with the end of Neal’s contract and all retained salary and buyout cap hits. There will effectively be zero bad money on the books and the teams key players locked up on value deals. I like the 3 years vs 2 for that reason.
Yes, it was Lagesson that I had in mind. But your larger point of the famed overripening of players by Ken Holland and how it may be a good thing for Bouchard it’s also a consideration.
Toronto are desperate for Cap space and picks. They require puck moving RHD and value players with positive stats.
I believe Kapanen can play 3C, if not he can swap with Nuge on the wing who is over qualified for the role. Either way the Oilers are covered.
Sorry I was unclear, the Neal compensation pick no longer going to Calgary.
Yeah he scored a big goal for the Caps when they won the cup from what I remember.