The Fifth Round

by Lowetide

Ethan Bear made the opening night lineup and spent the regular season carving out an NHL job in the upper echelons of the Oilers defensive depth chart. He played in 71 games, scored 5-16-21 and made every scout who argued for him a winner. Here’s a little nugget: Bear is the first fifth-round pick to play 60+ NHL games as a rookie for the Oilers in a season since Jason Chimera in 2002-03 (Miro Satan also managed it in 1995-96). It’s rare, and very valuable.

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

If you’re not a subscriber to The Athletic, click on the link for a free 30-day trial. Inside the story above are links to all of my draft articles this spring.

THE FIFTH ROUND SINCE 2010

  • 2010: Tyler Bunz [1] (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2011: Martin Gernat (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2012: Joey Laleggia (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2013: Evan Campbell (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2014: Liam Coughlin (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2015: Ethan Bear [89] (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Dylan Wells (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Graham McPhee (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2017: Kirill Maksimov (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)

Bear is the only fifth round pick in the decade who played for the Oilers beyond the one game by Bunz.

OILERS NHL GAMES, BY ROUND 2010’s

  • First Round: 3,281
  • Second Round: 487
  • Third Round: 321
  • Fourth Round: 718
  • Fifth Round: 90

The fourth round in the 2010’s (Tobias Rieder, Erik Gustafsson, Caleb Jones) is going to put the boots to the second (Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin) unless Tyler Benson, Ryan McLeod and Raphael Lavoie blossom in the NHL. The third round (Jujhar Khaira, Anton Slepyshev) badly needs Dmitri Samorukov to play 1,000 games.

PROGRESS

I think most of us agree that Kirill Maksimov is a legit NHL prospect despite the fact he was drafted in the fifth round. He scored 21 goals in his draft year, then 34 and 40 in his two post-draft campaigns. This year, in the AHL, he scored just five goals. Here are the rookie even-strength scoring totals for Oilers AHL forwards from 2010-19, with players 100 NHL games or more in bold:

  1. Toni Rajala 2012-13: 12 in 46 games (.261 goals per game)
  2. Cooper Marody 2018-19: 15 in 58 games (.259 goals per game)
  3. Joe Gambardella 2017-18: 12 in 50 games (.240 goals per game)
  4. Tyler Benson 2018-19: 13 in 68 games (.191 goals per game)
  5. Anton Slepyshev 2015-16: nine in 49 games (.184 goals per game)
  6. Jesse Puljujarvi 2016-17: seven in 39 games (.179 goals per game)
  7. Marco Roy 2015-16: seven in 42 games (.167 goals per game)
  8. Hunter Tremblay 2011-12: 11 in 68 games (.162 goals per game)
  9. Bogdan Yakimov 2014-15: nine in 57 games (.158 goals per game)
  10. Milan Kytnar 2010-11: 12 in 78 games (.154 goals per game)
  11. Teemu Hartikainen 2010-11: 10 in 66 games (.152 goals per game)
  12. Kailer Yamamoto 2018-19: four in 27 games (.148 goals per game)
  13. Ryan Kuffner 2019-20: five in 36 games (.137 goals per game)
  14. Chris VandeVelde 2010-11: nine in 67 games (.134 goals per game)
  15. Tanner House 2011-12: eight in 68 games (.118 goals per game)
  16. Andrew Miller 2013-14: six in 52 games (.115 goals per game)
  17. Travis Ewanyk 2013-14: seven in 68 games (.103 goals per game)
  18. Kellen Jones 2014-15: five in 49 games (.102 goals per game)
  19. Phil Cornet 2010-11: six in 60 games (.100 goals per game)
  20. Curtis Hamilton 2011-12: four in 41 games (.098 goals per game)
  21. Ryan Martindale 2012-13: four in 41 games (.098 goals per game)
  22. Cam Hebig 2018-19: six in 64 games (.093 goals per game)
  23. Ryan McLeod 2019-20: five in 56 games (.089 goals per game)
  24. Patrick Russell 2016-17: six in 68 games (.088 goals per game)
  25. Tyer Vesel 2018-19: five in 61 games (.082 goals per game)
  26. Jujhar Khaira 2014-15: four in 51 games (.078 goals per game)
  27. Mitchell Moroz 2014-15: five in 66 games (.076 goals per game)
  28. Kirill Maksimov 2019-20: four in 53 games (.075 goals per game)
  29. Tyler Pitlick 2011-12: four in 62 games (.065 goals per game)
  30. Kyle Platzer 2015-16: three in 48 games (.063 goals per game)
  31. Kale Kessy 2013-14: two in 54 games (.037 goals per game)

So the lesson of staring at Maksimov’s rookie scoring total in the AHL is the same as the lesson of Tyler Pitlick, Jujhar Khaira and Chris VandeVelde. Quoting “Farm Workers”, my annual look at minor league players: “Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera used the AHL as a stepping stone, grinding their skills into a (close to) mistake free two-way game while learning to score enough to stay in the lineup. These are the players you’re looking for.”

Kirill Maksimov can penalty kill and he can score. He’s got some things to learn and he’ll need to catch a break if he’s going to spend a prolonged period on an NHL scoring line. Between Cleary, Pisani and Chimera, there were no 50-point seasons and just one over 45 points (Cleary). Role players with utility are very useful for NHL teams. Maksimov could be one.

OILERS DRAFT PICKS OVER 7OGP IN ROOKIE SEASON

  • Jari Kurri 1980-81 75, 32-43-75
  • Paul Coffey 1980-81 74, 9-23-32
  • Jaroslav Pouzar 1982-83 74, 15-18-33
  • Raimo Summanen 1985-86 73, 19-18-37
  • Geoff Smith 1989-90 74, 4-11-15
  • Jason Arnott 1993-94 78, 33-35-68
  • Tom Poti 1998-99 73, 5-16-21
  • Sam Gagner 2007-08 79, 13-36-49
  • Andrew Cogliano 2007-08 82, 18-27-45
  • Magnus Paajarvi 2010-11 80, 15-19-34
  • Ethan Bear 2019-20 71, 5-16-21

Just 11 players have managed it, and Bear was only the second man in the 2010’s to accomplish it.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Lowdown starts at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Carlan Gay, Director of Partnerships and Multimedia for NBA Global Editions, will join us to talk about the NBA’s return. Daniel Gallen from Penn Live will drop in at 11 to discuss Drew Brees and his last 24 hours. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Ribs

leadfarmer: I dont know.Some people wanted those pictures completely gone.Some, myself included wanted a picture less version of the site available because I was sick of explaining to people at work that I’m not looking at lingerie models.
“I SWEAR ITS JUST A HOCKEY BLOG”

That is pretty funny, haha. I can see how that could be problematic for a lot of people.

London Jon

Harpers Hair: This has already been attempted in certain ways in Sweden.

It has become a dystopian shit hole.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-blast/sweden-suffers-surge-in-bomb-attacks-as-gang-violence-rises-idUSKBN1ZF1PD

Sweden is pretty much the exact opposite of a ‘dystopian shit hole’

ArmchairGM

defmn: It’s a video of a black man going through all the cities that have been run by Democrats since forever – at least 30 – 40 years and how things have just gotten worse and worse in those cities as the Democrats just assume they will get the “Black vote” because they always do and that maybe it is time to stop listening to the narrative and look at the reality and try something different.

Oh, thanks.

leadfarmer

Ribs: Strangely enough, my opinion on barely clothed women remains relatively unchanged!

I wonder what the last straw was for LT to stop posting the ladies photos. Mrs. Lowetide get wind of it? His kids? Copyright issues? Was he receiving disturbing emails demanding more Brigitte Bardot photos? Or was this something nagging away at LT’s conscience until he finally gave it the boots? I guess we’ll never know. Oh wait, he’s still around! Maybe he will enlighten us!

It certainly classes up the place a bit and helps hide the fact that we are mostly a bunch of degenerates!

I dont know. Some people wanted those pictures completely gone. Some, myself included wanted a picture less version of the site available because I was sick of explaining to people at work that I’m not looking at lingerie models.
“I SWEAR ITS JUST A HOCKEY BLOG”

N64

defmn: It’s a video of a black man going through all the cities that have been run by Democrats since forever – at least 30 – 40 years and how things have just gotten worse and worse in those cities as the Democrats just assume they will get the “Black vote” because they always do and that maybe it is time to stop listening to the narrative and look at the reality and try something different.

At this point in time the black vote appears to be the most grounded part of that party. I’d rather pols listen to their ideas on what is needed 10 times out of 10. White activists, meh.

https://blockclubchicago.org/2020/06/04/grocery-store-that-solved-south-shores-food-desert-problem-reopens-after-neighbors-clean-up-from-looting/

defmn

N64: The response was likely to the comment.

US reports 251 bombings in 2019. That link cites 257 in Sweden. Much smaller population but numbers likely aren’t apples to apples.

https://www.atf.gov/file/143481/download

That was my suspicion but wanted to confirm. I know that HH loves to push buttons and hyperbole is his friend in many of his posts 😉 but I have seen a lot of stories about the deteriorating situation in Sweden’s cities over the last few years so was wondering how much is true.

My in-laws are in Belgium (primarily) and the things they think about America would make you laugh out loud but that is what they read in their papers and see on TV.

I’m so old I can remember when the media kinda, sorta tried to get it right even if they rarely did. Not sure they even try anymore.

defmn

ArmchairGM: I don’t twit, you’ll have to transcribe it for me.

It’s a video of a black man going through all the cities that have been run by Democrats since forever – at least 30 – 40 years and how things have just gotten worse and worse in those cities as the Democrats just assume they will get the “Black vote” because they always do and that maybe it is time to stop listening to the narrative and look at the reality and try something different.

ArmchairGM

defmn: https://twitter.com/i/status/1268576616478801920

I don’t twit, you’ll have to transcribe it for me.

N64

defmn: I also prefer to stay away from the political discussions here but do you mind explaining your comment. The link to the story is not an unusual characterization of what we are told is happening in Sweden these days and the story does support an interpretation close to HH’s hyperbolic characterization.

Of course the MSM has lost pretty much all of its credibility so I was wondering if you would mind offering a more nuanced perspective.

Thanks.

The response was likely to the comment.

US reports 251 bombings in 2019. That link cites 257 in Sweden. Much smaller population but numbers likely aren’t apples to apples.

https://www.atf.gov/file/143481/download

defmn

ArmchairGM: … thus guaranteeing that nothing actually changes.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1268576616478801920

defmn

SwedishPoster: I prefer to stay far away from politics on a hockey blog and I’ll keep doing that but seriously man don’t make comments on things you clearly know fuck all about. It’s crazy arrogant.

I also prefer to stay away from the political discussions here but do you mind explaining your comment. The link to the story is not an unusual characterization of what we are told is happening in Sweden these days and the story does support an interpretation close to HH’s hyperbolic characterization.

Of course the MSM has lost pretty much all of its credibility so I was wondering if you would mind offering a more nuanced perspective.

Thanks.

ArmchairGM

leadfarmer: I don’t know if you realize
But Joe Biden is the presidential nominee because of the African American population.

… thus guaranteeing that nothing actually changes.

OriginalPouzar

Listening to Servavelli this morning and, while we know that Phase 2 starts on Monday and teams can open up their facilities for the small group skates, Frank said that not all facilities may open.

He mentioned, for example, Montreal – while there are quite a few NHL players in the city, only 1 or 2 actual Hab players and, given the cost (cleaning, putting in ice, having someone there to take temperatures, etc.), they may not open.

I would almost think the NHL will mandate the 31 cities to open – I mean, taking Frank’s example, there will be Hab player in other NHL cities that would get the benefit of their ice, no?

ristojalo

SwedishPoster: I prefer to stay far away from politics on a hockey blog and I’ll keep doing that but seriously man don’t make comments on things you clearly know fuck all about. It’s crazy arrogant.

He read an article and now is an expert, as it always was …

SwedishPoster

Harpers Hair: This has already been attempted in certain ways in Sweden.

It has become a dystopian shit hole.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-blast/sweden-suffers-surge-in-bomb-attacks-as-gang-violence-rises-idUSKBN1ZF1PD

I prefer to stay far away from politics on a hockey blog and I’ll keep doing that but seriously man don’t make comments on things you clearly know fuck all about. It’s crazy arrogant.

ArmchairGM

Georges:
This gives us 4 categories:

A >= 20 minutes and >= 0.35 Pts/GP (top tier)
B >= 20 minutes and < 0.35 Pts/GP (defensive stalwarts)
C = 0.35 Pts/GP (offensive specialists)
D < 20 minutes and < 0.35 Pts/GP (the rest)

Here are the counts of defensemen in each category drafted in 2010 or later AND who've played at least 20 games in the NHL:

A 29
B 10
C 13
D 127

I’d suggest that you broaden your range a bit. This study used 18:30 as a cutoff which gives you a much larger sample size.

https://www.coppernblue.com/platform/amp/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round

Ribs

jp: My opinion has also remained consistent.

About the change, LT can correct me but IIRC a person or 2 (or possibly more?) mentioned to him the pictures of said women weren’t necessarily agreeable to everyone. He chose to respect the opinions of those people and stopped including the pictures as part of the posts.

Kinda the whole damn point. Respect for people and the other things that flow from it.

Ties things up rather nicely! Well done!

€√¥£€^$

Thanks to everyone for the interesting comments and analysis! tonight!

Congrats to Trevor457! Welcome to the ‘hood!

——————————————————–

A really cool thing happened today that I want to share. I didn’t plan for this to happen, but I’ve been stuck in a small MB city for a couple of weeks working remotely. It sucks primarily because my actual human interactions are very few and far between. Anyway, I am extremely fortunate to still have a job and I am very grateful. I went for a long walk this evening and saw several turkey vultures circling in the distance, so I decided to track them.

Ten minutes later I find 15 of them perched very high on a large power transmission tower. I lived near Wainwright for 5 years, over 10 yrs ago and caught a few glimpses of this bird, but was never able to spot more than 2 or 3 at a time high up in the air and never spotted any on a perch. I remember reading in an old “Birds of Alberta” book as a teen and I was stunned to learn that AB had a population of 50 in the 80’s So when I noticed them near Wainwright I thought it was so cool. Tonight was beyond amazing to me.

Here’s to beautiful and unexpected surprises!

Good night all!

Georges

Harpers Hair: Raw TOI is a very blunt instrument in that it ignores team construction.

For example….

The Canucks D TOI leader this season was Edler at at 22:27.

Hughes was second at 21:53

In Colorado…Sam Girard was first at 21:19…Erik Johnson at 21:03 and Cale Makar at 21:01

A well balanced D will punish players without that context.

It’s hard to impact play when you’re not on the ice.

I think it’s more let the big dogs eat. If young Hughes and Makar could’ve handled more minutes this season, what possible reason could their HC’s have to not give them those minutes?

I’m not sure it’s a stretch to say that elite defensemen play very large minutes because of their superior skills and stamina, both physical and mental. All 8 of the defensemen Shattenkirk identified as elite in his two articles are on the list.

It’s very early for Hughes and Makar. They definitely made noise. Both impressive talents. And as impressive as their talent is, I don’t think they were blocked from hitting elite TOI numbers by Johnson and a 33 year-old Edler. I think it’s more what Shattenkirk said. It’s very, very hard to play those additional minutes and still maintain an elite level of play.

Georges

jp,

Good stuff. Tomorrow.

jp

Ribs: Strangely enough, my opinion on barely clothed women remains relatively unchanged!

I wonder what the last straw was for LT to stop posting the ladies photos. Mrs. Lowetide get wind of it? His kids? Copyright issues? Was he receiving disturbing emails demanding more Brigitte Bardot photos? Or was this something nagging away at LT’s conscience until he finally gave it the boots? I guess we’ll never know. Oh wait, he’s still around! Maybe he will enlighten us!

It certainly classes up the place a bit and helps hide the fact that we are mostly a bunch of degenerates!

My opinion has also remained consistent.

About the change, LT can correct me but IIRC a person or 2 (or possibly more?) mentioned to him the pictures of said women weren’t necessarily agreeable to everyone. He chose to respect the opinions of those people and stopped including the pictures as part of the posts.

Kinda the whole damn point. Respect for people and the other things that flow from it.

jp

Harpers Hair:
And, as you can see above, good to great D are showing up at an early age and the trend is accelerating.

I guess you’ve decided to completely ignore my post above?

Defensemen drafted in the top 10 between 2012 and 2016 became NHL regulars on average in draft +2.1.

Defensemen drafted in the top 10 between 1992 and 1996 became NHL regulars on average in draft +1.6.

Nothing is accelerating.

jp

Georges: You had this from earlier:

“… Willis did a great job of showing that forwards are more predictable draft picks than defensemen, and goalies are the least predictable. Whatever Holland does or believes, we no longer need to *think* there’s more certainty with a skater/offensive forward. Willis (I believe) proved it.”

I’m curious. What did Willis prove?

I know defensemen are over represented in the draft overall while forwards are over represented in the first round. By over represented I mean that teams tend to pick a greater share of certain positions than that position’s representation in a nightly roster.

By their over representation alone, defensemen draft picks should have a lower success rate than forward draft picks. Goalies make up about 10% of draft picks and they make up 10% of the nightly roster so they should have an average success rate. Forwards are overall more successful as draft picks because teams tend to over select defensemen in the draft.

At least I think that’s how it works…

First, I’ll say that I was a bit rushed earlier writing that post and would rather have used a word other than “proved”. Both because he showed/suggested something rather than proved it, and also because he’s probably not the first to actually show/suggest it.

In terms of your take, Willis didn’t look at percentage of F/D/G draft picks that became NHL players, he looked at where the players who populate the various F/D/G spots in NHL lineups were selected.

I believe he showed fairly convincingly that NHL teams have the ability to identify quality forwards better than defensemen better than goalies. At the draft, teams use their top picks to select the players they believe will have the greatest impact as NHLers. As you noted teams pick more defensemen than they “should” based on the number of final roster spots defensemen occupy. (6D vs 12F). Despite picking more defensemen than they should, NHL teams only identified 61% of #1D in the first round of NHL drafts compared to 84% of #1Fs. Teams trying to identify future best players did a better job of identifying the best Fs compared to the best D.

You can follow those trends down the lineup or to higher draft numbers/spots in Willis’ charts but they support the same conclusion. As another for instance, 47% of all NHL forwards were picked in the first round vs 39% of D, despite D being more over-represented as draft picks than forwards.

11% of NHL D were never drafted compared to 10% of NHL Fs. I don’t imagine that 1% difference is significant but more undrafted D being NHLers would also support the “good forwards are easier to identify than good defensemen” argument. I bring this up only because it’s relevant to goalies, I think.

Goalies ARE very under-represented as 1st and 2nd round draft picks compared to the lineup spots they occupy, so we should rightly expect fewer actual #1 and #2 goalies to have been picked in the first and second round compared to forwards and defensemen. NHL teams do draft lots of goalies later though, to the point that G draft picks are more over-represented overall (14% more) than D (10%) or Fs (-7%) (the percentages don’t add to 0 because the numbers aren’t equal in each group).

Even though NHL teams pick 14% more goalies than they “should” (presumably the ones they think have the best chance of being good NHLers), 15% of NHL goalies were never drafted (compared to 11% of D and 10% of Fs).

The goalie part is the weakest, though I think ease of identifying F>D>G is still supported. Goalies aside, I believe the numbers are quite convincing that future good forwards are easier to identify than future good defensemen.

Harpers Hair

Georges: Here’s one take.

I think the best way to evaluate how well a defenseman does his job is to keep track of how long his HC asks him to do it. Impact defensemen are distinguished by their relatively high TOI. They’re the “go to” for their HC. Different HC’s have different sets of options. They may play a defenseman more than they should because they don’t like their other options. So TOI can be deceptive. Maybe if we can find some threshold to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Here’s a quote from a helpful article penned by Kevin Shattenkirk:

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/elite-defensemen-101-kevin-shattenkirk-nhl

He’s talking about Ryan Suter:

“Cerebral. You have to recognize him as one of the smartest defensemen in the league. Suter is probably the player most similar to Nick Lidström that we have in the game today. To have the stamina to play 29 minutes a game in the NHL is ridiculous. If you think about it, that means he’s out there every other shift. Personally, my minutes have gone up this year from 20 to 22, and even that little difference is noticeable. I definitely feel it after games. Adding another seven minutes onto that is almost unthinkable.”

Shattenkirk said 22 minutes is a test of his stamina. I’m going to try a little higher than that: 23 minutes. I’m going to guess that it’s very hard for HC’s to push defensemen above that threshold unless the defensemen can actually and consistently perform at that threshold.

In 2019-20, just 33 out of 303 defensemen who played in the NHL managed to average 23 minutes. Around 1 per team but not distributed evenly across teams. And around 1 in 10 defensemen who played in the season. If you look at career averages and include seasons from 2000-01 to 19-20, there have been only 52 defensemen who averaged 23 minutes or more. Out of 1136 defensemen who’ve played over that time. Roughly 1 in 20.

So, by this approach, an impact defenseman is in the 95th percentile on career TOI/GP. He’s a defenseman who averages 23 minutes or more for his career. And he arrives as an impact defenseman in the first year he averages 23 minutes.

Let’s see how many defensemen drafted 2000 or later fit this criteria and let’s also list their age when they first hit the 23 minute mark:

Player, Career TOI/GP, Age of first 23-minute season

Miro Heiskanen, 23:24, 19
Drew Doughty, 26:15, 19
Jay Bouwmeester, 24:07, 20
Erik Karlsson, 25:44, 20
Ivan Provorov, 23:59, 20
Rasmus Ristolainen, 24:02, 21
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, 23:35, 21
Victor Hedman, 23:00, 21
Dion Phaneuf, 23:28, 21
Alex Pietrangelo, 24:37, 21
Roman Josi, 24:48, 22
John Carlson, 23:22, 22
Ryan McDonagh, 23:06, 22
Ryan Whitney, 23:06, 22
Duncan Keith, 25:00, 22
Joni Pitkanen, 23:37, 22
P.K. Subban, 24:05, 22
Kris Letang, 23:58, 23
Shea Weber, 24:06, 23
Ryan Suter, 25:10, 23
Alexander Edler, 23:02, 24
John Klingberg, 23:09, 24
Dennis Wideman, 23:05, 24

The median age when these defensemen first hit 23 minutes is 22.

Is that early? Not sure. Elite forwards show up in their teens, don’t they?

Raw TOI is a very blunt instrument in that it ignores team construction.

For example….

The Canucks D TOI leader this season was Edler at at 22:27.

Hughes was second at 21:53

In Colorado…Sam Girard was first at 21:19…Erik Johnson at 21:03 and Cale Makar at 21:01

A well balanced D will punish players without that context.

Ribs

leadfarmer: This blog 12 years ago was filled with barely clothed women.
Now not so much.
Times change, people’s opinions change

Strangely enough, my opinion on barely clothed women remains relatively unchanged!

I wonder what the last straw was for LT to stop posting the ladies photos. Mrs. Lowetide get wind of it? His kids? Copyright issues? Was he receiving disturbing emails demanding more Brigitte Bardot photos? Or was this something nagging away at LT’s conscience until he finally gave it the boots? I guess we’ll never know. Oh wait, he’s still around! Maybe he will enlighten us!

It certainly classes up the place a bit and helps hide the fact that we are mostly a bunch of degenerates!

Harpers Hair

BornInAGretzkyJersey: Using 40+ points as a cut off level to determine when a player takes off as an impact D.

Brent Burns – Played regularly but didn’t break out until D+5.Then slumped, and didn’t become a consistent impact player until D+8.Some seasons with SJS as a forward, but wasn’t traded until D+9.

Victor Hedman – D+5

Duncan Keith – Steady early results in 30-point range but took off in D+6

Zdeno Chara – D+6

Oliver Ekman-Larsson – D+5

Erik Karlsson – D+3

Roman Josi – D+6

Shea Webber – D+5

Ryan Suter – D+6

Kris Letang – D+6

There are plenty more, but I think I’ve made my point.I’ve actually pointed this out to you before, but you chose to not reply.

You’re actually making my point perfectly by posting out what happed 10-20 years ago.

2010 Draft

Erik Gudbranson 2 games in the AHL

Cam Fowler 40 points in rookie season.

2011 Draft

Adam Larsson 65 GP in rookie season

Dougie Hamilton Straight to the NHL after junior career.

Jonas Brodin Only 9 games in the AHL

Oscar Klefbom half a season in the AHL

Connor Murphy NHL regular at 21

2012 Draft

Ryan Murray NHL regular at 20 (impacted by injury)

Morgan Reilly NHL regular at 20

Hampus Lindholm NHL regular at 21

Matt Dumba NHL regular at 22

Jacob Trouba NHL regular at 20

Olli Maata NHL regular at 19

Brady Skjei NHL regular at 22 (NCCA is always longer)

Colton Parayko NHL regular at 22 (NCAA)

Jacob Slavin NHL regular at 22 (NCAA)

2013 Draft

Seth Jones BOOM

Darnell Nurse Hokey Pokey

Rasmus Ristolainen NHL regular at 20

Josh Morrisey NHL regular at 21

Nikita Zadarov NHL regular at 19

Shea Theodore NHL regular at 22

Brett Pesce NHL regular at 21 (NCAA)

Drawing a line at 40 points is very arbitrary since it has no regard for role or usage.

For example, Victor Hedman was an NHL regular and an impact player at 19.

And, as you can see above, good to great D are showing up at an early age and the trend is accelerating.

Georges

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
Georges,

Great series of posts today.

Very interesting findings.

Curious of your take on the “impact defensemen announce themselves early” mantra that floats around.

Here’s one take.

I think the best way to evaluate how well a defenseman does his job is to keep track of how long his HC asks him to do it. Impact defensemen are distinguished by their relatively high TOI. They’re the “go to” for their HC. Different HC’s have different sets of options. They may play a defenseman more than they should because they don’t like their other options. So TOI can be deceptive. Maybe if we can find some threshold to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Here’s a quote from a helpful article penned by Kevin Shattenkirk:

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/elite-defensemen-101-kevin-shattenkirk-nhl

He’s talking about Ryan Suter:

“Cerebral. You have to recognize him as one of the smartest defensemen in the league. Suter is probably the player most similar to Nick Lidström that we have in the game today. To have the stamina to play 29 minutes a game in the NHL is ridiculous. If you think about it, that means he’s out there every other shift. Personally, my minutes have gone up this year from 20 to 22, and even that little difference is noticeable. I definitely feel it after games. Adding another seven minutes onto that is almost unthinkable.”

Shattenkirk said 22 minutes is a test of his stamina. I’m going to try a little higher than that: 23 minutes. I’m going to guess that it’s very hard for HC’s to push defensemen above that threshold unless the defensemen can actually and consistently perform at that threshold.

In 2019-20, just 33 out of 303 defensemen who played in the NHL managed to average 23 minutes. Around 1 per team but not distributed evenly across teams. And around 1 in 10 defensemen who played in the season. If you look at career averages and include seasons from 2000-01 to 19-20, there have been only 52 defensemen who averaged 23 minutes or more. Out of 1136 defensemen who’ve played over that time. Roughly 1 in 20.

So, by this approach, an impact defenseman is in the 95th percentile on career TOI/GP. He’s a defenseman who averages 23 minutes or more for his career. And he arrives as an impact defenseman in the first year he averages 23 minutes.

Let’s see how many defensemen drafted 2000 or later fit this criteria and let’s also list their age when they first hit the 23 minute mark:

Player, Career TOI/GP, Age of first 23-minute season

Miro Heiskanen, 23:24, 19
Drew Doughty, 26:15, 19
Jay Bouwmeester, 24:07, 20
Erik Karlsson, 25:44, 20
Ivan Provorov, 23:59, 20
Rasmus Ristolainen, 24:02, 21
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, 23:35, 21
Victor Hedman, 23:00, 21
Dion Phaneuf, 23:28, 21
Alex Pietrangelo, 24:37, 21
Roman Josi, 24:48, 22
John Carlson, 23:22, 22
Ryan McDonagh, 23:06, 22
Ryan Whitney, 23:06, 22
Duncan Keith, 25:00, 22
Joni Pitkanen, 23:37, 22
P.K. Subban, 24:05, 22
Kris Letang, 23:58, 23
Shea Weber, 24:06, 23
Ryan Suter, 25:10, 23
Alexander Edler, 23:02, 24
John Klingberg, 23:09, 24
Dennis Wideman, 23:05, 24

The median age when these defensemen first hit 23 minutes is 22.

Is that early? Not sure. Elite forwards show up in their teens, don’t they?

defmn

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
Georges,

Great series of posts today.

Very interesting findings.

Curious of your take on the “impact defensemen announce themselves early” mantra that floats around.

I’ll second that.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Georges,

Great series of posts today.

Very interesting findings.

Curious of your take on the “impact defensemen announce themselves early” mantra that floats around.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Harpers Hair: The original post referenced Nurse #7 and Klefbom#19 .

While both are useful defensemen, neither would be mistaken for a high end #1D.

My point that young high impact D show up very quickly stands.

Using 40+ points as a cut off level to determine when a player takes off as an impact D.

Brent Burns – Played regularly but didn’t break out until D+5. Then slumped, and didn’t become a consistent impact player until D+8. Some seasons with SJS as a forward, but wasn’t traded until D+9.

Victor Hedman – D+5

Duncan Keith – Steady early results in 30-point range but took off in D+6

Zdeno Chara – D+6

Oliver Ekman-Larsson – D+5

Erik Karlsson – D+3

Roman Josi – D+6

Shea Webber – D+5

Ryan Suter – D+6

Kris Letang – D+6

John Klingberg – D+6

Alex Pietrangelo – D+4

There are plenty more, but I think I’ve made my point. I’ve actually pointed this out to you before, but you chose to not reply.

OriginalPouzar

Georges:
But what’s a dominant second pairing D?

I see how you might be confused – you are used to hearing the more common title for that: “A Raffety”.

Georges

Scungilli Slushy: I get what you’re saying but the only time the Oilers competed well with a lack of talent was all goalies. As this current version got older amend deeper Inconsistency in net kept them out of playoffs. Now even still lacking a balanced team, despite Connor and Leon, stability in net got them in. Excellence would have had them with more points IMO.

Many highly skilled teams lose it when the goalie slumps, see Tampa. In fact you of all people should be able to extract the value of it. Good teams can win with average SV%, but why is it so many really good teams have really strong goalies? Chicken or egg?

Some contending teams limit SA, but SV% is a lot about the player as well.

Goalie play isn’t unimportant. If your goalie loses confidence and lets in goals he maybe shouldn’t, yes, it’s hard to win. But that’s oversold. Most of the time goalies don’t fall apart. They all stop a big majority of the shots they face. Because most of the shots they face are (despite all the flailing and theatrics) routine. The goalie does a good job of judging the angle, occupies most of the space the shooter could possibly aim at, and his teammates do a good job of harassing the attempt. And, ploop, the puck hits the goalie. If your team makes it a habit of giving NHL shooters uncontested chances from dangerous spots, every goalie is going to struggle. If they keep making save after save in those situations, don’t credit the goalie… blame the shooters. They didn’t do their job. Team play is dependent on goalie play, but goalie play is highly dependent on team play. There may indeed be some psychology involved in playing in front of your starter as opposed to your backup. But there’s not that much variation in the results, definitely nothing that approaches significance. Often backups fare worse because they get the tougher spots in the schedule, second game of a back to back, stuff like that.

Genjutsu

ArmchairGM: Why does America hate itself?

Because it’s beautiful?

Georges

LT:

So the lesson of staring at Maksimov’s rookie scoring total in the AHL is the same as the lesson of Tyler Pitlick, Jujhar Khaira and Chris VandeVelde. Quoting “Farm Workers”, my annual look at minor league players: “Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera used the AHL as a stepping stone, grinding their skills into a (close to) mistake free two-way game while learning to score enough to stay in the lineup. These are the players you’re looking for.”

Kirill Maksimov can penalty kill and he can score. He’s got some things to learn and he’ll need to catch a break if he’s going to spend a prolonged period on an NHL scoring line. Between Cleary, Pisani and Chimera, there were no 50-point seasons and just one over 45 points (Cleary). Role players with utility are very useful for NHL teams. Maksimov could be one.

—-

Cleary scored 0.52 Pts/GP over his 938 game career. Really, he’s in a different category than the other two guys.

Pisani scored 0.43 Pts/GP over his 462 game career. Health problems interfered.

Chimera score 0.37 Pts/GP over his 1107 game career. Average was hurt by his last feeble year.

Between Cleary, Pisani, and Chimera, there were 16 seasons of 30 or more points.

These guys aren’t role players. They’re players. As in, you can put them on the ice against a typical NHL forward and expect to come out on top because they’re likely to score more than the typical NHL forward. If you had these guys as 3rd line players in their prime, you’ve done very well in terms of team construction.

JJ, Pitlick, and VandeVelde would be exactly the kind of below average scoring forwards that Cleary, Pisani, and Chimera would dominate. They don’t measure up on that scale.

As far as Maksimov, it’s hard to tell if a forward can penalty kill. It’s easier to tell if he can score. And no way, no how is a 5th round pick finding time on an NHL scoring line if he manages just 5 goals in an AHL season. Good NHL teams are choosing scorers for every forward role. It’s the bad ones who settle for the role play without the scoring.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: Good grief your picayune responses are exhausting.

If you don’t want to see what is going on in Minneapolis, stick your fingers in your ears and bellow.

I don’t care.

This is rich very very rich.
Also I lived in Minneapolis for years and spend many weeks there each year, and I live nearby
I care I deeply care
Now go cuddle with your Rafferty doll

Scungilli Slushy

Georges:
Scungilli Slushy,

“What is the thing that has torpedoed the Oilers for years? I can’t even mention ‘06.”

Umm… not enough forwards who can score, not enough coaches who can coach, not enough GMs who can GM?

“Goalering. How do teams go deep in the playoffs?”

Umm… by playing better as a team than the teams they play against and a little bit of luck?

I get what you’re saying but the only time the Oilers competed well with a lack of talent was all goalies. As this current version got older amend deeper Inconsistency in net kept them out of playoffs. Now even still lacking a balanced team, despite Connor and Leon, stability in net got them in. Excellence would have had them with more points IMO.

Many highly skilled teams lose it when the goalie slumps, see Tampa. In fact you of all people should be able to extract the value of it. Good teams can win with average SV%, but why is it so many really good teams have really strong goalies? Chicken or egg?

Some contending teams limit SA, but SV% is a lot about the player as well.

Harpers Hair

leadfarmer: Well I guess that should teach you to not blindly repeat a tweet
So blindly that you don’t even realize that Lisa Bender is a her.

Good grief your picayune responses are exhausting.

If you don’t want to see what is going on in Minneapolis, stick your fingers in your ears and bellow.

I don’t care.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: I said nothing of the sort.

I relayed a Tweet from the Minneapolis City Council President.

Take it up with him.

Well I guess that should teach you to not blindly repeat a tweet
So blindly that you don’t even realize that Lisa Bender is a her.

Harpers Hair

Georges: That’s why I added the depending on how you’re keeping score part.

Heiskanen (A), Klingberg (A), and Lindell (B) are all interesting by the criteria I used above.

They’ve all averaged big minutes over their careers, more than any of the Oilers’ selections.

But what’s a dominant second pairing D?

I would think Lindell as a B but this past season I expect he would get a B+

Georges

Scungilli Slushy,

“What is the thing that has torpedoed the Oilers for years? I can’t even mention ‘06.”

Umm… not enough forwards who can score, not enough coaches who can coach, not enough GMs who can GM?

“Goalering. How do teams go deep in the playoffs?”

Umm… by playing better as a team than the teams they play against and a little bit of luck?

defmn

Scungilli Slushy: Yes but they aren’t hard to get, KR? Etc. The point being Id rather spend there than most other positions.

I agree with this. I am still intrigued by a suggestion made by our host here some months back of offering Puljujarvi to Buffalo for Ullmaark. Hutton has one more year and Johannsson looks like he is ready to move up.

Harpers Hair

leadfarmer: Yes and doesn’t sound like the police department has been dismantled as you stated

I said nothing of the sort.

I relayed a Tweet from the Minneapolis City Council President.

Take it up with him.

leadfarmer

godot10: It is the apotheosis of white privilege to assert that having made such a grievous error, that one is entitled to the Presidency.That one is an indispensable person.

If a so-called progressive is going to walk the walk instead of just talk the talk, they have to step aside.

P.S. It was not “an opinion”.Millions of young black men were sent to jail. Their lives “ruined”. They lost their right to vote.Ironically, for the Clinton’s, that probably cost Hillary the Presidency.In the last few years, Democratic Governors are racing to restore the voting rights of black males that Clinton and Biden took away.

I don’t know if you realize
But Joe Biden is the presidential nominee because of the African American population.

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: Your reading comprehension needs a workout.

“several elected officials have publicly floated various reform proposals, ranging from defunding the department immediately, to taking a slower approach and sending social workers or mental health professionals to some calls currently handled by police.”

And now the goal posts have shifted to various other proposals
Because well of course they have
We need lots of various proposals cause the previous proposals didn’t work

Georges

Harpers Hair: Dallas D drafts since 2010 draft:

John Klingberg 425 GP

Patrick Nemeth 314

Jamie Oleksiak 313

Esa Lindell 308

Miro Heiskanen 150

Two elite D and a dominant second pairing D in Lindell.

Thomas Harley from the 2019 draft is trending as another tremendous pick up.

All but Nemeth still play for the Stars.

That’s why I added the depending on how you’re keeping score part.

Heiskanen (A), Klingberg (A), and Lindell (B) are all interesting by the criteria I used above.

They’ve all averaged big minutes over their careers, more than any of the Oilers’ selections.

But what’s a dominant second pairing D?

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: Your reading comprehension needs a workout.

“several elected officials have publicly floated various reform proposals, ranging from defunding the department immediately, to taking a slower approach and sending social workers or mental health professionals to some calls currently handled by police.”

Yes and doesn’t sound like the police department has been dismantled as you stated

Scungilli Slushy

defmn: Unfortunately we have no 2nd this year or next. It will be interesting to see what NYR does. Lundqvist is on record as saying he wants to play for several more years and it isn’t always easy to move guys like him who have been the face of the franchise for so long even if it is the right thing to do for the franchise – which I think it is.

Yes but they aren’t hard to get, KR? Etc. The point being Id rather spend there than most other positions.

defmn

Scungilli Slushy:
What is the thing that has torpedoed the Oilers for years? I can’t even mention ‘06.

Goalering. How do teams go deep in the playoffs?

Unlikely playoff and reg season runs?

It’s the most important position on the team. It should be the one hardest gone after. If there is a first round goalie talent still available in the first round and you have no one else you take them.

Or trade for a young prospect. I agree using JP and an excess prospect or whatever to the Rangers. JP and a second. Seconds have very low value in producing impact players. JP is a toasted asset.

This is where the goalie scouts make their money or lose their jobs. If one of the Ranger guys has the goods put the assets there where it may hit the jackpot rather than let them atrophy on the tree.

The Oilers need their solid starter tout suite, Connor isn’t getting any younger, it’s go time.

Unfortunately we have no 2nd this year or next. It will be interesting to see what NYR does. Lundqvist is on record as saying he wants to play for several more years and it isn’t always easy to move guys like him who have been the face of the franchise for so long even if it is the right thing to do for the franchise – which I think it is.