The Fifth Round

Ethan Bear made the opening night lineup and spent the regular season carving out an NHL job in the upper echelons of the Oilers defensive depth chart. He played in 71 games, scored 5-16-21 and made every scout who argued for him a winner. Here’s a little nugget: Bear is the first fifth-round pick to play 60+ NHL games as a rookie for the Oilers in a season since Jason Chimera in 2002-03 (Miro Satan also managed it in 1995-96). It’s rare, and very valuable.

THE ATHLETIC

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.

If you’re not a subscriber to The Athletic, click on the link for a free 30-day trial. Inside the story above are links to all of my draft articles this spring.

THE FIFTH ROUND SINCE 2010

  • 2010: Tyler Bunz [1] (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2011: Martin Gernat (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2012: Joey Laleggia (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2013: Evan Campbell (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2014: Liam Coughlin (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2015: Ethan Bear [89] (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Dylan Wells (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Graham McPhee (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2017: Kirill Maksimov (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)

Bear is the only fifth round pick in the decade who played for the Oilers beyond the one game by Bunz.

OILERS NHL GAMES, BY ROUND 2010’s

  • First Round: 3,281
  • Second Round: 487
  • Third Round: 321
  • Fourth Round: 718
  • Fifth Round: 90

The fourth round in the 2010’s (Tobias Rieder, Erik Gustafsson, Caleb Jones) is going to put the boots to the second (Tyler Pitlick, Martin Marincin) unless Tyler Benson, Ryan McLeod and Raphael Lavoie blossom in the NHL. The third round (Jujhar Khaira, Anton Slepyshev) badly needs Dmitri Samorukov to play 1,000 games.

PROGRESS

I think most of us agree that Kirill Maksimov is a legit NHL prospect despite the fact he was drafted in the fifth round. He scored 21 goals in his draft year, then 34 and 40 in his two post-draft campaigns. This year, in the AHL, he scored just five goals. Here are the rookie even-strength scoring totals for Oilers AHL forwards from 2010-19, with players 100 NHL games or more in bold:

  1. Toni Rajala 2012-13: 12 in 46 games (.261 goals per game)
  2. Cooper Marody 2018-19: 15 in 58 games (.259 goals per game)
  3. Joe Gambardella 2017-18: 12 in 50 games (.240 goals per game)
  4. Tyler Benson 2018-19: 13 in 68 games (.191 goals per game)
  5. Anton Slepyshev 2015-16: nine in 49 games (.184 goals per game)
  6. Jesse Puljujarvi 2016-17: seven in 39 games (.179 goals per game)
  7. Marco Roy 2015-16: seven in 42 games (.167 goals per game)
  8. Hunter Tremblay 2011-12: 11 in 68 games (.162 goals per game)
  9. Bogdan Yakimov 2014-15: nine in 57 games (.158 goals per game)
  10. Milan Kytnar 2010-11: 12 in 78 games (.154 goals per game)
  11. Teemu Hartikainen 2010-11: 10 in 66 games (.152 goals per game)
  12. Kailer Yamamoto 2018-19: four in 27 games (.148 goals per game)
  13. Ryan Kuffner 2019-20: five in 36 games (.137 goals per game)
  14. Chris VandeVelde 2010-11: nine in 67 games (.134 goals per game)
  15. Tanner House 2011-12: eight in 68 games (.118 goals per game)
  16. Andrew Miller 2013-14: six in 52 games (.115 goals per game)
  17. Travis Ewanyk 2013-14: seven in 68 games (.103 goals per game)
  18. Kellen Jones 2014-15: five in 49 games (.102 goals per game)
  19. Phil Cornet 2010-11: six in 60 games (.100 goals per game)
  20. Curtis Hamilton 2011-12: four in 41 games (.098 goals per game)
  21. Ryan Martindale 2012-13: four in 41 games (.098 goals per game)
  22. Cam Hebig 2018-19: six in 64 games (.093 goals per game)
  23. Ryan McLeod 2019-20: five in 56 games (.089 goals per game)
  24. Patrick Russell 2016-17: six in 68 games (.088 goals per game)
  25. Tyer Vesel 2018-19: five in 61 games (.082 goals per game)
  26. Jujhar Khaira 2014-15: four in 51 games (.078 goals per game)
  27. Mitchell Moroz 2014-15: five in 66 games (.076 goals per game)
  28. Kirill Maksimov 2019-20: four in 53 games (.075 goals per game)
  29. Tyler Pitlick 2011-12: four in 62 games (.065 goals per game)
  30. Kyle Platzer 2015-16: three in 48 games (.063 goals per game)
  31. Kale Kessy 2013-14: two in 54 games (.037 goals per game)

So the lesson of staring at Maksimov’s rookie scoring total in the AHL is the same as the lesson of Tyler Pitlick, Jujhar Khaira and Chris VandeVelde. Quoting “Farm Workers”, my annual look at minor league players: “Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera used the AHL as a stepping stone, grinding their skills into a (close to) mistake free two-way game while learning to score enough to stay in the lineup. These are the players you’re looking for.”

Kirill Maksimov can penalty kill and he can score. He’s got some things to learn and he’ll need to catch a break if he’s going to spend a prolonged period on an NHL scoring line. Between Cleary, Pisani and Chimera, there were no 50-point seasons and just one over 45 points (Cleary). Role players with utility are very useful for NHL teams. Maksimov could be one.

OILERS DRAFT PICKS OVER 7OGP IN ROOKIE SEASON

  • Jari Kurri 1980-81 75, 32-43-75
  • Paul Coffey 1980-81 74, 9-23-32
  • Jaroslav Pouzar 1982-83 74, 15-18-33
  • Raimo Summanen 1985-86 73, 19-18-37
  • Geoff Smith 1989-90 74, 4-11-15
  • Jason Arnott 1993-94 78, 33-35-68
  • Tom Poti 1998-99 73, 5-16-21
  • Sam Gagner 2007-08 79, 13-36-49
  • Andrew Cogliano 2007-08 82, 18-27-45
  • Magnus Paajarvi 2010-11 80, 15-19-34
  • Ethan Bear 2019-20 71, 5-16-21

Just 11 players have managed it, and Bear was only the second man in the 2010’s to accomplish it.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Lowdown starts at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Carlan Gay, Director of Partnerships and Multimedia for NBA Global Editions, will join us to talk about the NBA’s return. Daniel Gallen from Penn Live will drop in at 11 to discuss Drew Brees and his last 24 hours. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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196 Responses to "The Fifth Round"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    *knock knock* – I believe that is the phrase Coach T. uses when talking about Bear and how opportunity knocked and he grabbed it in training camp.

    Can Krill Maskimov be another 5th round gem? The man has a responsible two-way game, can PK, can be aggresive and has a lethal shot. Big second year pro for him coming up – time to find a way to create time and space for yourself Krill – to use those offensive weapons. You should have more “offensive” linemates, and “offensive” in a good way.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    One has to think that the Oilers will draft a forward given the depth of highly produtive skill in the first round and the likelihood of a “top 10 talent” forward being available.

    Then again, we thought this last season and Broberg was the name called.

    I anticipate a forward but we know that Kenny will pick who he thinks will best help this team contend yearly until his retirement and after.

  3. Hitman77 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    One has to think that the Oilers will draft a forward given the depth of highly produtive skill in the first round and the likelihood of a “top 10 talent” forward being available.

    Then again, we thought this last season and Broberg was the name called.

    I anticipate a forward but we know that Kenny will pick who he thinks will best help this team contend yearly until his retirement and after.

    Unless the d-man is Jamie Drysdale, who I think will be drafted in the top 5, I’m praying Holland drafts a forward with our first pick.

  4. JJS says:

    I generally agree with drafting the BPA however it has to fit into an overarching strategic plan/needs analysis projecting out 5 years.

    The Oil have a great d-man pipeline in place and there are only 6 d-men on the bench every game.

    But the team desperately requires more scoring forwards. This should be our priority in the first round this year and possibly next.

    The caveat would be a rushing defenseman with calm feet/hockey sense. This player type (Quinn, Makar) can be an extraordinary difference maker and impact games more than a scoring winger.

  5. dustrock says:

    Conversation in LT’s Athletic piece on picking a d-man.

    If Askarov is there, do you take him?

    Would it make a difference if Holland grabbed a 2nd round pick through trade?

    I say if you think Askarov is the next Vasilevskiy then I run up to the podium and take him. Solving a position like goalie for a decade would be incredible.

    He won’t be there at 20, but what if the Oilers pick at 15?

  6. Rondo says:

    Drew Brees Attacked for Saying he would never Disrespect American Flag

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSqxOY9HUio

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darren Dreger
    @DarrenDreger
    ·
    2h
    CBA discussions between the NHL and NHLPA have been woven into the daily planning for resumption of play, however, sources say the two sides have intensified talks on a CBA extension with escrow, salary cap and HRR main discussion points. A stabilized escrow system is key.

  8. stephen sheps says:

    Rondo,

    https://sports.yahoo.com/drew-brees-apologizes-for-comments-about-kneeling-protests-i-stand-with-the-black-community-124049826.html

    Drew Brees reflecting on getting it wrong, listening to his team mates and a variety of other folks, recognizing that it’s not about the flag and owning up to his mistakes.

  9. Harpers Hair says:

    Rick Dhaliwal (@DhaliwalSports) Tweeted:
    Hearing D Nikita Nesterov is leaving CSKA in Russia and is being linked to the LA Kings.

    Nothing new on the #Canucks and D Nikita Tryamkin, still in a holding pattern.

  10. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    Conversation in LT’s Athletic piece on picking a d-man.

    If Askarov is there, do you take him?

    Would it make a difference if Holland grabbed a 2nd round pick through trade?

    I say if you think Askarov is the next Vasilevskiy then I run up to the podium and take him. Solving a position like goalie for a decade would be incredible.

    He won’t be there at 20, but what if the Oilers pick at 15?

    One only picks a goaltender in the top 5, or starting in the 3rd round (late 2nd round may be acceptable).

    The only goaltenders who are not suspects will be selected in the top 5.

    One should wait till the 3rd round to draft suspects.

  11. Elgin R says:

    Bear was incredible this season for a rookie! Absolutely saved the season after Larsson went down. Even high-draft defencemen such as Nurse and Klefbom usually take 3 – 4 years post draft to be effective (Hughes and Makar are exceptions).

    Oilers are not drafting high enough to take an exceptional defencemen, so concentrate on the highest-skill forward available. It is not uncommon for teams to take D higher than the rankings suggest (see 2019). This should push a good forward down to us. Holland / Wright should place emphasis on speed and skill for their BFA (best forward available) list. I am hoping that Seth Jarvis is available when the Oilers pick in the first round.

  12. Hitman77 says:

    dustrock:
    Conversation in LT’s Athletic piece on picking a d-man.

    If Askarov is there, do you take him?

    Would it make a difference if Holland grabbed a 2nd round pick through trade?

    I say if you think Askarov is the next Vasilevskiy then I run up to the podium and take him. Solving a position like goalie for a decade would be incredible.

    He won’t be there at 20, but what if the Oilers pick at 15?

    If goalies are pure voodoo, I’d be hesitant drafting a goalie in the first round. Since 2005, I only count Price and Vasilevsky as first round picks that turned out to be studs. Samsonov of Washington has the potential to be but too early to tell with him.

    Really hard to say with Askarov. Some scouts have said he’s the best prospect to come along since Price.

    If it was me, whether we’re picking at 15 or 20, I’d still shoot for a forward.

  13. Eh Team says:

    Elgin R: Bear was incredible this season for a rookie! Absolutely saved the season after Larsson went down. Even high-draft defencemen such as Nurse and Klefbom usually take 3 – 4 years post draft to be effective (Hughes and Makar are exceptions).

    Marino and Fox are two more who had great rookie seasons

  14. Rondo says:

    stephen sheps,

    I think Drew was pressured to apologize or face the wrath of the NFL and the black community.

  15. Trevor457 says:

    My baby boy Ethan was born two days ago. I was pushing for Connor or Leon, but the wife didn’t want him named after an Oiler. Good thing she doesn’t know who Ethan Bear is!

  16. stephen sheps says:

    Rondo,

    that’s a disappointingly cynical take. you might be right, you might not. we’ll never really know.

  17. Material Elvis says:

    Rondo:
    stephen sheps,

    I think Drew was pressured to apologize or face the wrath of the NFL and the black community.

    The apology seems sincere and heart-felt, not another right wing conspiracy theory.

  18. jp says:

    Oilers vs. Wings since Holland’s past is relevant obviously for the Oilers now. FWIW no one drafted in 2019 for either team has played in the NHL.

    Oilers NHL Games, by round 2010s:
    First Round: 3,281 (11 picks)
    Second Round: 487 (10)
    Third Round: 321 (15)
    Fourth Round: 718 (12)
    Fifth Round: 90 (9)
    Sixth Round : 174 (10)
    Seventh Round: 0 (11)

    Red Wings NHL Games, by round 2010s:
    First Round: 1,369 (9 picks, 2 in 2018, none in 2011 or 2012)
    Second Round: 1,352 (15)
    Third Round: 412 (14)
    Fourth Round: 500 (10)
    Fifth Round: 263 (10)
    Sixth Round : 0 (12)
    Seventh Round: 121 (12)

  19. Elgin R says:

    Eh Team,

    Eh Team: Marino and Fox are two more who had great rookie seasons

    Agreed. Marino, Fox and Bear approximately the same age (22 or 23) and all took the long road. Hopefully they all have long careers. Getting just a 6th for Marino still sucks.

  20. ArmchairGM says:

    Trevor457:
    My baby boy Ethan was born two days ago.I was pushing for Connor or Leon, but the wife didn’t want him named after an Oiler.Good thing she doesn’t know who Ethan Bear is!

    Nice one! and congratulations!

  21. Rondo says:

    Material Elvis,

    Just because you think you should stand for the Anthem doesn’t make you a racist. But that is how the narrative goes.

  22. Hitman77 says:

    I wonder if there’s a trade involving Jesse + pick/prospect to the Rangers for one of their young goalies. It’ll solve drafting for one.

  23. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Rondo,

    That’s by and large not what people say. The royal you is not invoked. People say Colin Kapernick or someone else taking a knee, specifically, for specific reasons must stand. That’s pretty on the face racist.

    I don’t think any anthem should be played before a sports match. When I say that, imagine the vitriol I put up with.

  24. Harpers Hair says:

    Elgin R:
    Bear was incredible this season for a rookie!Absolutely saved the season after Larsson went down.Even high-draft defencemen such as Nurse and Klefbom usually take 3 – 4 years post draft to be effective (Hughes and Makar are exceptions).

    Oilers are not drafting high enough to take an exceptional defencemen, so concentrate on the highest-skill forward available.It is not uncommon for teams to take D higher than the rankings suggest (see 2019).This should push a good forward down to us.Holland / Wright should place emphasis on speed and skill for their BFA (best forward available) list. I am hoping that Seth Jarvis is available when the Oilers pick in the first round.

    Actually….the 3-4 years doesn’t account for the reality of young D making an impact.

    Here is a list of young D that are impact players taken in the last 5 drafts who had an immediate impact with one year or two of being drafted:

    Noah Hanifin
    Ivan Provorov
    Mikael Sergachev
    Charlie McAvoy
    Jacob Chychrun
    Samuel Girard
    Miro Heiskanen
    Cale Makar
    Rasmus Dahlin
    Quinn Hughes
    Adam Boqvist

    While you will certainly find others who take longer to develop will indeed be impact players, the Hughes/Makar cohort are becoming much more common as the league trends increasingly younger.

  25. defmn says:

    Trevor457:
    My baby boy Ethan was born two days ago.I was pushing for Connor or Leon, but the wife didn’t want him named after an Oiler.Good thing she doesn’t know who Ethan Bear is!

    Congratulations. Sleep deprivation is a character building exercise. 😉

  26. Rondo says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur,

    So why were people upset with Drew, he said nothing about black people?

  27. N64 says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur: I don’t think any anthem should be played before a sports match. When I say that, imagine the vitriol I put up with.

    Actually I’d strongly prefer people stand for national anthems. But if they can’t or won’t then I’d rather not have anthems at sports matches. Barking mad and counterproductive to fight over symbols of unity.

  28. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: Actually….the 3-4 years doesn’t account for the reality of young D making an impact.

    Here is a list of young D that are impact players taken in the last 5 drafts who had an immediate impact with one year or two of being drafted:

    Noah Hanifin
    Ivan Provorov
    Mikael Sergachev
    Charlie McAvoy
    Jacob Chychrun
    Samuel Girard
    Miro Heiskanen
    Cale Makar
    Rasmus Dahlin
    Quinn Hughes
    Adam Boqvist

    While you will certainly find others who take longer to develop will indeed be impact players, the Hughes/Makar cohort are becoming much more common as the league trends increasingly younger.

    The role of defenders the biggest change in the game since the butterfly for goalies?

  29. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Who would you rather have over their career?

    Hughes or Heiskanen

  30. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: The role of defenders the biggest change in the game since the butterfly for goalies?

    Yes…I think that may be true.

    The “stay at home” defensemen is pretty much a dinosaur and getting offence from the D whether in actual point production or puck moving ability is increasing in importance.

  31. ArmchairGM says:

    Rondo:
    Material Elvis,

    Just because you think you should stand for the Anthem doesn’t make you a racist. But that is how the narrative goes.

    Why does America hate itself?

  32. defmn says:

    ArmchairGM: Why does America hate itself?

    Oh, oh. I know the answer to this but it is quite long and this is not a political philosophy blog. 😉

  33. Material Elvis says:

    Rondo:
    Chelios is a Dinosaur,

    So why were people upset with Drew, he said nothing about black people?

    Kneeling during the anthem was a way to protest racial injustice and police brutality towards black people. It had nothing to do with the military or disrespect towards the flag.

  34. Rondo says:

    Material Elvis,

    Last post for me on this subject. Some facts

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piwaBO6U43U

  35. JimmyV1965 says:

    Harpers Hair: Actually….the 3-4 years doesn’t account for the reality of young D making an impact.

    Here is a list of young D that are impact players taken in the last 5 drafts who had an immediate impact with one year or two of being drafted:

    Noah Hanifin
    Ivan Provorov
    Mikael Sergachev
    Charlie McAvoy
    Jacob Chychrun
    Samuel Girard
    Miro Heiskanen
    Cale Makar
    Rasmus Dahlin
    Quinn Hughes
    Adam Boqvist

    While you will certainly find others who take longer to develop will indeed be impact players, the Hughes/Makar cohort are becoming much more common as the league trends increasingly younger.

    This list is begging for context. Some on this list should not have played so early in their career. Others were paired with great dmen who could shelter their young partner. Some regressed in their second season. And some were on great teams who dominated puck possession. I only see four dmen on this list that don’t fit in the above categories.

  36. JimmyV1965 says:

    In regards to the anthem, people should do whatever the hell they want. Freedom of expression is what makes countries great. Not symbols.

  37. N64 says:

    Material Elvis: Kneeling during the anthem

    ~ Whatever happened to separation of Church and State? ~

    NFL can highlight important message in dozens of ways, but all of this just highlights that National Anthems don’t belong at sporting events.

  38. Harpers Hair says:

    JimmyV1965: This list is begging for context. Some on this list should not have played so early in their career. Others were paired with great dmen who could shelter their young partner. Some regressed in their second season.And some were on great teams who dominated puck possession. I only see four dmen on this list that don’t fit in the above categories.

    Please provide the context for EACH player…then we’ll talk.

    I think you’ll find that virtually every one of them earned their spot and have never looked back.

  39. Ribs says:

    Material Elvis: It had nothing to do with the military or disrespect towards the flag.

    It may have not meant to be disrespectful to those things, but it was.

    Mostly bad timing on Brees’ part. There is a movement happening and anything that detracts from it is going to be (rightly) criticized.

  40. rogue says:

    Drew Brees said NOTHING wrong in his first video. He did not diss anyone. We have come to the point where common sense and truth does not matter. Instead of facing the issues, lets just label everyone racist, just because.

  41. Harpers Hair says:

    Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) Tweeted:
    The NHL Playoffs will not be bracketed, but re-seeded after every round. Qualifying will be best-of-five. All other rounds will be best-of-seven.

  42. Material Elvis says:

    N64: ~ Whatever happened to separation of Church and State? ~

    NFL can highlight important message in dozens of ways, but all of this just highlights that National Anthems don’t belong at sporting events.

    I’m down with canceling the pregame anthems. Especially in the NHL; they drag out the start of games with anthems and ceremonies. If the start time is 7:00pm, then drop the puck at 7:00pm. The Leafs are the worst for this.

  43. N64 says:

    Ribs: Mostly bad timing on Brees’ part. There is a movement happening and anything that detracts from it is going to be (rightly) criticized.

    wikipedia:

    Exceptionalism is the perception or belief that a species, country, society, institution, movement, individual, or time period is “exceptional”

  44. Eh Team says:

    Harpers Hair: Yes…I think that may be true.
    The “stay at home” defensemen is pretty much a dinosaur and getting offence from the D whether in actual point production or puck moving ability is increasing in importance.

    Hockey is finally moving the way of soccer- well, soccer changed a long time ago- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_Football#:~:text=Total%20football%20(Dutch%3A%20totaalvoetbal),other%20player%20in%20a%20team.

    Players changing position interchangeably. Well, maybe Bobby Orr started it in hockey, but old time hockey was everyone staying in their positions moving up and down their wings.

  45. Harpers Hair says:

    N64: ~ Whatever happened to separation of Church and State? ~

    NFL can highlight important message in dozens of ways, but all of this just highlights that National Anthems don’t belong at sporting events.

    I’m old enough to remember when we started the school day with the anthem and it was played in theatres before the movie start.

    I’ve long thought it’s an anachronism long past it’s best before date at sporting events.

  46. stephen sheps says:

    Rondo,

    Sorry to do this LT… I really want to leave this alone but I don’t think I can.

    To call back to another old-timey poster with the same “first name” as me, I’m not sure facts mean what you think it means.

    Rondo, you’ve been posting here a really long time and I appreciate your contributions, but please do your homework and try to learn a bit, put yourself in the position of the people who are living this reality and hear what they have to say and why they’re saying it rather than making it a partisan, left vs. right issue. Before you post an interview from 2016 to try and prove your point in a 2020 context, perhaps take the time to look at a bit more of the available data and see what that data suggests – numbers aren’t partisan.

    Credit where it’s due, the fellow in the interview was right when he claimed that more whites are shot by police than African-Americans. What he fails to acknowledge is the ratio of white people vs. non-white in the US. Given that African-Americans make up only 13% of the population, there is a disproportionate number of folks shot and killed by cops relative to the size of the population. When he speaks about the crisis of families, he’s also not wrong. However he fails to account for the overrepresentation of Black men in the prison system, the role the war on drugs plays in this, the disproportionate number of Black men in jail for small weed charges given mandatory minimums, the effect of single-family homes on education and income (especially as in the US, public schools are funded based on property taxes). And yet this guy thinks that there aren’t structural issues at play?

    Here are some current numbers specific to police violence for you and anyone else who might be interested to have a look at. I’m including a few sources in order to make sure I’m actually showing my work as well as links to their methodologies. My hope is that as a community here, we can look at these numbers with the same sort of nuance, curiosity and intelligence that we apply to conversations around analytics in the sport that brought us all to this place, and try to see the stories these numbers tell.

    https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/
    https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/aboutthedata

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/585152/people-shot-to-death-by-us-police-by-race/

  47. stephen sheps says:

    Harpers Hair: I’ve long thought it’s an anachronism long past it’s best before date at sporting events.

    Me too.

    Fun fact, NFL players were only required to come out and stand on the sidelines for the anthem in 2009, right around the same time the NFL started to take sponsorship money for what the late senator John McCain referred to as “paid patriotism” events in a 2015 report on Department of Defence spending, something the senator was not in favour of at all. Prior to 2009, it was up to the individual player if they wanted to come out before the anthem or after. Special games like the Super Bowl and 9/11 tributes on national broadcasts like MNF were the exception rather than the norm.

  48. dustrock says:

    Brees is rightly getting called out for a boneheaded, jingoistic statement. The faster Americans realize we’re waaaaay past the idea of Manifest Destiny, we’ll all be better for it.

    When you spend decades glorifying the military above any other part of your society and then spend decades trying to turn the police into the military, here’s where we end up.

    You can disagree with Kaepernick taking a knee as a soft protest that literally harms not a single soul. But the idea that he was blackballed from working in the NFL because of this stance is insane to me, and it shows that people talk a lot about ideals of freedom and democracy, but in practice, we all want everyone to stay in the lane that has been chosen for them.

    If Kaepernick taking a knee fills you with rage, I’d examine that feeling and maybe self-reflect.

    When Rich White Guy Drew Brees toes the company line of not “disrespecting the flag” (whatever the fuck that even means) after weeks of violent reprisal against protestors and journalists by the people who are literally supposed to be serving and protecting them, it damn well comes across as tone-deaf a the very least.

  49. JimmyV1965 says:

    stephen sheps:
    Rondo,

    Sorry to do this LT… I really want to leave this alone but I don’t think I can.

    To call back to another old-timey poster with the same “first name” as me, I’m not sure facts mean what you think it means.

    Rondo, you’ve been posting here a really long time and I appreciate your contributions, but please do your homework and try to learn a bit, put yourself in the position of the people who are living this reality and hear what they have to say and why they’re saying it rather than making it a partisan, left vs. right issue. Before you post an interview from 2016 to try and prove your point in a 2020 context, perhaps take the time to look at a bit more of the available data and see what that data suggests – numbers aren’t partisan.

    Credit where it’s due, the fellow in the interview was right when he claimed that more whites are shot by police than African-Americans. What he fails to acknowledge is the ratio of white people vs. non-White in the US. Given that African-Americans make up only 13% of the population, there is a disproportionate number of folks shot and killed by cops relative to the size of the population. When he speaks about the crisis of families, he also not wrong. However he fails to account for the overrepresentation of Black men in the prison system, the role the war on drugs plays in this, the number of people in jail on small weed charges given mandatory minimums, the effect of single-family homes on education and income (especially as in the US, public schools are funded based on property taxes). And yet this guy thinks that there aren’t structural issues at play?

    Here are some current numbers specific to police violence for you and anyone else who might be interested to have a look at. I’m including a few sources in order to make sure I’m actually showing my work as well as links to their methodologies. My hope is that as a community here, we can look at these numbers with the same sort of nuance, curiosity and intelligence that we apply to conversations around analytics in the sport that brought us all to this place, and try to see the stories these numbers tell.

    https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/
    https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/aboutthedata

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/585152/people-shot-to-death-by-us-police-by-race/

    I’ve looked at those numbers. What shocked me was the total number of people killed by police in the States. For context, there’s 15-25 each year in Canada.

  50. Material Elvis says:

    dustrock:
    Brees is rightly getting called out for a boneheaded, jingoistic statement. The faster Americans realize we’re waaaaay past the idea of Manifest Destiny, we’ll all be better for it.

    When you spend decades glorifying the military above any other part of your society and then spend decades trying to turn the police into the military, here’s where we end up.

    You can disagree with Kaepernick taking a knee as a soft protest that literally harms not a single soul. But the idea that he was blackballed from working in the NFL because of this stance is insane to me, and it shows that people talk a lot about ideals of freedom and democracy, but in practice, we all want everyone to stay in the lane that has been chosen for them.

    If Kaepernick taking a knee fills you with rage, I’d examine that feeling and maybe self-reflect.

    When Rich White Guy Drew Brees toes the company line of not “disrespecting the flag” (whatever the fuck that even means) after weeks of violent reprisal against protestors and journalists by the people who are literally supposed to be serving and protecting them, it damn well comes across as tone-deaf a the very least.

    Good post. Some folks just keep missing the point. Brees initially missed the point but quickly realized his mistake and apologized. Seems like a real stand-up guy.

  51. Material Elvis says:

    Rondo,

    We are heading into the draft. That is traditionally your area of focus and you usually add a lot to the conversation. Not interested in prospects anymore?

  52. innercitysmytty says:

    stephen sheps:
    Rondo,

    Sorry to do this LT… I really want to leave this alone but I don’t think I can.

    To call back to another old-timey poster with the same “first name” as me, I’m not sure facts mean what you think it means.

    Rondo, you’ve been posting here a really long time and I appreciate your contributions, but please do your homework and try to learn a bit, put yourself in the position of the people who are living this reality and hear what they have to say and why they’re saying it rather than making it a partisan, left vs. right issue. Before you post an interview from 2016 to try and prove your point in a 2020 context, perhaps take the time to look at a bit more of the available data and see what that data suggests – numbers aren’t partisan.

    Credit where it’s due, the fellow in the interview was right when he claimed that more whites are shot by police than African-Americans. What he fails to acknowledge is the ratio of white people vs. non-white in the US. Given that African-Americans make up only 13% of the population, there is a disproportionate number of folks shot and killed by cops relative to the size of the population. When he speaks about the crisis of families, he’s also not wrong. However he fails to account for the overrepresentation of Black men in the prison system, the role the war on drugs plays in this, the disproportionate number of Black men in jail for small weed charges given mandatory minimums, the effect of single-family homes on education and income (especially as in the US, public schools are funded based on property taxes). And yet this guy thinks that there aren’t structural issues at play?

    Here are some current numbers specific to police violence for you and anyone else who might be interested to have a look at. I’m including a few sources in order to make sure I’m actually showing my work as well as links to their methodologies. My hope is that as a community here, we can look at these numbers with the same sort of nuance, curiosity and intelligence that we apply to conversations around analytics in the sport that brought us all to this place, and try to see the stories these numbers tell.

    https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/
    https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/aboutthedata

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/585152/people-shot-to-death-by-us-police-by-race/

    Well said and thanks for that

  53. Material Elvis says:

    stephen sheps:
    Rondo,

    Sorry to do this LT… I really want to leave this alone but I don’t think I can.

    To call back to another old-timey poster with the same “first name” as me, I’m not sure facts mean what you think it means.

    Rondo, you’ve been posting here a really long time and I appreciate your contributions, but please do your homework and try to learn a bit, put yourself in the position of the people who are living this reality and hear what they have to say and why they’re saying it rather than making it a partisan, left vs. right issue. Before you post an interview from 2016 to try and prove your point in a 2020 context, perhaps take the time to look at a bit more of the available data and see what that data suggests – numbers aren’t partisan.

    Credit where it’s due, the fellow in the interview was right when he claimed that more whites are shot by police than African-Americans. What he fails to acknowledge is the ratio of white people vs. non-white in the US. Given that African-Americans make up only 13% of the population, there is a disproportionate number of folks shot and killed by cops relative to the size of the population. When he speaks about the crisis of families, he’s also not wrong. However he fails to account for the overrepresentation of Black men in the prison system, the role the war on drugs plays in this, the disproportionate number of Black men in jail for small weed charges given mandatory minimums, the effect of single-family homes on education and income (especially as in the US, public schools are funded based on property taxes). And yet this guy thinks that there aren’t structural issues at play?

    Here are some current numbers specific to police violence for you and anyone else who might be interested to have a look at. I’m including a few sources in order to make sure I’m actually showing my work as well as links to their methodologies. My hope is that as a community here, we can look at these numbers with the same sort of nuance, curiosity and intelligence that we apply to conversations around analytics in the sport that brought us all to this place, and try to see the stories these numbers tell.

    https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/
    https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/aboutthedata

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/585152/people-shot-to-death-by-us-police-by-race/

    Thanks Sheps. Even if your post opens the eyes of just one person, you’ve done the world a service.

  54. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Actually….the 3-4 years doesn’t account for the reality of young D making an impact.

    Here is a list of young D that are impact players taken in the last 5 drafts who had an immediate impact with one year or two of being drafted:

    Noah Hanifin
    Ivan Provorov
    Mikael Sergachev
    Charlie McAvoy
    Jacob Chychrun
    Samuel Girard
    Miro Heiskanen
    Cale Makar
    Rasmus Dahlin
    Quinn Hughes
    Adam Boqvist

    While you will certainly find others who take longer to develop will indeed be impact players, the Hughes/Makar cohort are becoming much more common as the league trends increasingly younger.

    Why does it matter exactly how long a player takes to get to the NHL? I’d have thought Brogan Rafferty would be sufficient evidence for you that the shortest path isn’t always the best…

  55. godot10 says:

    Material Elvis: Kneeling during the anthem was a way to protest racial injustice and police brutality towards black people.It had nothing to do with the military or disrespect towards the flag.

    It does, but “blasphemy” is a legitimate form of protest. The right to offend is at the core of the right to free speech and free expression.

  56. dustrock says:

    Material Elvis: Kris Russell takes a knee every time he plays and has made a long career out of it……

    5/5

  57. dustrock says:

    Didn’t realize Katz purchased Laura Ingraham’s Lifezette platform.

    That’s disappointing.

    https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/30/media/daryl-katz-laura-ingraham-lifezette/index.html

  58. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: Why does America hate itself?

    Chaos is money.

  59. godot10 says:

    stephen sheps:
    Rondo,

    However he fails to account for the overrepresentation of Black men in the prison system, the role the war on drugs plays in this, the disproportionate number of Black men in jail for small weed charges given mandatory minimums, the effect of single-family homes on education and income (especially as in the US, public schools are funded based on property taxes). And yet this guy thinks that there aren’t structural issues at play?

    And who exactly is responsible for the mass incarceration of young black men in America over the last generation, and for mandatory minimums, and the disparity in sentencing between cocaine and crack.

    Joe Biden was head of the Senate Justice Committee almost all of that time. He guided the Clintons mass incarceration bill (millions of young black menover the last generation) and mandatory minimums through Congress. Biden maintained the disparity in sentencing between cocaine (white men crime) and crack (black men). Clinton and Biden oversaw the creation of the US private prison system to hold all these young black men and to deliver massive profits to their owner donors.

    For all those who think that change is coming in November.

    That is why it is called systematic racism.

    And before we get all down on Americans. Our PM cannot recall how many times he wore blackface. He groped a female reporter. He targetted an indigenous person to beat up and metaphorically scalp (by taking his hair). He mocked Indigenous protestors at an LIberal fundraiser. He bullied an indigenous women AG, attempted to get her to interfere in the criminal prosecution of a powerful connected Canadian corporation. He also fired her and booted her from his party. And the Liberal Party, the Laurentian establishment and their media, normalize and protect him, and have removed his racism from the Overton window in Canada. Our PM is the apotheosis of white privilege and the protection racket which shields him is the epitome of systematic racism.

  60. PennersPancakes says:

    Random topic (hockey), are the Colorado Avalanche overrated? Im just asking, obviously they’re a very good team especially this year but looking at their 5v5 stats are they over achieving?

    I know at some point talent will beat averages (i.e generating more breakaways will results in higher scoring %s) but for 2019-2020 are the Avalanche flying sky high?

    5v5 stats

    Shooting %: 10.2% compared to 9.2 average
    Save %: .919 compared to .908 average

    GF – GA – Difference
    Expected: 147.3, 135.3, -12
    Actual: 162, 117, 55

    Scoring chances for are 52.2 and High danger scoring chances for are 50.6%

    Is this sustainable with elite talent (Mackinnon, Makar, Rantanen) or was this year an over achievement?

    Pavel Francouz played well in the KHL but still spent the majority of last season in the AHL with a respectable .918 can he continue with a .923 in the NHL?

    Grubauer might be money at this workload level and this seasons .916 is the lowest hes had playing 20+ games. Something could be said about Washington being such dominate teams during his time but not known for great defense.

    Their future looks great with the young defense and having the majority of their picks moving forward, just curious on others thoughts of their team today and moving into the playoffs.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Elgin R:
    Bear was incredible this season for a rookie!Absolutely saved the season after Larsson went down.Even high-draft defencemen such as Nurse and Klefbom usually take 3 – 4 years post draft to be effective (Hughes and Makar are exceptions).

    Oilers are not drafting high enough to take an exceptional defencemen, so concentrate on the highest-skill forward available.It is not uncommon for teams to take D higher than the rankings suggest (see 2019).This should push a good forward down to us.Holland / Wright should place emphasis on speed and skill for their BFA (best forward available) list. I am hoping that Seth Jarvis is available when the Oilers pick in the first round.

    Even without a d-man or two being chosen higher than ranked, there should be a few very highly skilled productive forwards available at 20 – from what I’ve read, the depth of skilled productive forward is massive and there should be forwards available at that spot that would “normally” go closer to top 10.

    With that said, the Oilers may not be drafting any where near 20.

    They would be drafted 1-3 or 13th-14th or 20th or 28th or 31st.

    Its all up in the air now.

  62. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Actually….the 3-4 years doesn’t account for the reality of young D making an impact.

    Here is a list of young D that are impact players taken in the last 5 drafts who had an immediate impact with one year or two of being drafted:

    Noah Hanifin
    Ivan Provorov
    Mikael Sergachev
    Charlie McAvoy
    Jacob Chychrun
    Samuel Girard
    Miro Heiskanen
    Cale Makar
    Rasmus Dahlin
    Quinn Hughes
    Adam Boqvist

    While you will certainly find others who take longer to develop will indeed be impact players, the Hughes/Makar cohort are becoming much more common as the league trends increasingly younger.

    Another question is: Is this even a thing?

    Young defenseman playing in the NHL is a thing, no question, but is it new? Is it a trend?

    I looked at relatively recent drafts (2016 back to 2012 to allow players a chance to get to the NHL so I could look at ‘normal’). Asking the question, how many years did it take top 10 picks (defensemen) to make it to the NHL (defined here as 40+ games in a season). 1 is playing 40+ games in draft +1 and so on.

    2016
    Juolevi Not yet (draft +4 just completed)
    Sergachev 2
    2015
    Hanifin 1
    Provorov 2
    Werenski 2
    2014
    Ekblad 1
    Fleury 4
    2013
    Jones 1
    Nurse 3
    Ristolainen 2
    2012
    Murray 2
    Reinhart Never
    Rielly 2
    Lindholm 2
    Dumba 3
    Pouliot Not until draft + 6
    Trouba 2
    Koekkoek Not until draft +8

    So 14 of 18 D played 40+ games by draft +4. On average those 14 did it in draft +2.1 (ignoring the 4 ‘busts’ for the purposes of the average).

    What about 20 years ago?

    1996
    Phillips 2
    Zyuzin 2
    Jackman Not until draft +7
    Salei 3
    Ward Not until draft +7
    1995
    Berard 2
    Redden 2
    Berg 1
    McLaren 1
    1994
    Jovanoski 2
    Tverdovsky 1
    Baumgartner Not until draft +12
    1993
    Pronger 1
    1992
    Hamrlik 1
    Rathje 2
    Kasparaitis 1

    So 20 years earlier 13 of 16 drafted in the top 10 played 40+ games by draft +4 (I pro-rated the lockout shortened 1995 season for Tverdovsky who played 36 of 48 games). The average of those 13 was draft +1.6.

    20 years ago top 10 drafted defensemen made it to the NHL quicker than they do today. I didn’t expect players to be making it so quickly or I’d have done 2017/2018. Turns out it’s draft +2 for those years as well. Huh.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    Conversation in LT’s Athletic piece on picking a d-man.

    If Askarov is there, do you take him?

    Would it make a difference if Holland grabbed a 2nd round pick through trade?

    I say if you think Askarov is the next Vasilevskiy then I run up to the podium and take him. Solving a position like goalie for a decade would be incredible.

    He won’t be there at 20, but what if the Oilers pick at 15?

    Yes, Aakarov is a highly touted goalie prospect and he very well could be the next Vasilevskiy – then again, we are talking about teenage prospects and he could turn out to be the next Leland Irving or Rick DiPietro.

    I think there is a case to draft him if he’s available but, at the same time, I don’t think the Oilers can take that type of “risk” in this draft. They need that 1st round pick to “hit” – sure, there is never a guarantee that the player will turn out or reach his ceiling, however, I think there is more certainty with a skater, in particular an offensive forward, than a goalie.

  64. stephen sheps says:

    godot10,

    The examples you provided are spot-on illustrations of exactly why it’s systemic, why it’s structural. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

    It’s a rare treat to see us saying the same thing, even if we often appear to come at our conclusions from wildly different places.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Penguins announce that one of their players tested positive for COVID – as per John Shannon.

    Sounds like this was in the past and not a new diagnosis.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Finalized:

    1) No bracket – match-ups will be by seed.

    2) All 4 real playoff series will be best of 7.

    Good job by the players on these two points.

  67. jp says:

    PennersPancakes:
    Random topic (hockey), are the Colorado Avalanche overrated? Im just asking, obviously they’re a very good team especially this year but looking at their 5v5 stats are they over achieving?

    I know at some point talent will beat averages (i.e generating more breakaways will results in higher scoring %s) but for 2019-2020 are the Avalanche flying sky high?

    5v5 stats

    Shooting %: 10.2% compared to 9.2 average
    Save %: .919 compared to .908 average

    GF – GA – Difference
    Expected: 147.3, 135.3, -12
    Actual: 162, 117, 55

    Scoring chances for are 52.2 and High danger scoring chances for are 50.6%

    Is this sustainable with elite talent (Mackinnon, Makar, Rantanen) or was this year an over achievement?

    Pavel Francouz played well in the KHL but still spent the majority of last season in the AHL with a respectable .918 can he continue with a .923 in the NHL?

    Grubauer might be money at this workload level and this seasons .916 is the lowest hes had playing 20+ games. Something could be said about Washington being such dominate teams during his time but not known for great defense.

    Their future looks great with the young defense and having the majority of their picks moving forward, just curious on others thoughts of their team today and moving into the playoffs.

    I noticed that too a little while back. Great question and I suspect the answer is yes, they are overachieving. They do have lots of skill but I’d guess some regression from their league leading 5v5 PDO is in order at some point (though maybe not all the way back to even).

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Also, as per Friedman, there is some legs to the CBA extension talk and its possible something gets done before the players start playing games again.

    Players want a cap on escrow and its being considered – potentially a cap at 20% over the next few years and potentially a flat $81.5M cap over the next few years as well.

  69. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    This NHL season is (sort of, currently) bookended by Don Cherry’s firing and Braden Holtby contributing insight on Woodrow Wilson’s racist legacy.

    This is a better NHL today than this time last year.

  70. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: And who exactly is responsible for the mass incarceration of young black men in America over the last generation, and for mandatory minimums, and the disparity in sentencing between cocaine and crack.

    Joe Biden was head of the Senate Justice Committee almost all of that time.He guided the Clintons mass incarceration bill (millions of young black menover the last generation) and mandatory minimums through Congress.Biden maintained the disparity in sentencing between cocaine (white men crime) and crack (black men).Clinton and Biden oversaw the creation of the US private prison system to hold all these young black men and to deliver massive profits to their owner donors.

    For all those who think that change is coming in November.

    That is why it is called systematic racism.

    And before we get all down on Americans.Our PM cannot recall how many times he wore blackface.He groped a female reporter.He targetted an indigenous person to beat up and metaphorically scalp (by taking his hair).He mocked Indigenous protestors at an LIberal fundraiser.He bullied an indigenous women AG, attempted to get her to interfere in the criminal prosecution of a powerful connected Canadian corporation.He also fired her and booted her from his party.And the Liberal Party, the Laurentian establishment and their media, normalize and protect him, and have removed his racism from the Overton window in Canada.Our PM is the apotheosis of white privilege and the protection racket which shields him is the epitome of systematic racism.

    Yes but he’s not the current president who the left despise.

    Biden’s real purpose is to drop dead in office, thus ensuring the 1st woman US president by Gerald Ford style stealth.

  71. stephen sheps says:

    Material Elvis: Thanks Sheps. Even if your post opens the eyes of just one person, you’ve done the world a service.

    No need to thank me. Just doing my job. (literally… I’m a sociology prof without any classes to teach right now. I’ve got to channel it somewhere)

    Appreciate the kind words from you and innercitysmytty though.

  72. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Finalized:

    1) No bracket – match-ups will be by seed.

    2) All 4 real playoff series will be best of 7.

    Good job by the players on these two points.

    Good.

    Apply the 22 game NBA format to the NHL and notice how much the NBA got right:

    Chicago and Montreal would be golfing.
    Oil would be a lock for the final 16.

  73. hunter1909 says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur:
    This NHL season is (sort of, currently) bookended by Don Cherry’s firing and Braden Holtby contributing insight on Woodrow Wilson’s racist legacy.

    This is a better NHL today than this time last year.

    I can hardly wait for the “woke” Stanley Cup presentations.

  74. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Finalized:

    1) No bracket – match-ups will be by seed.

    2) All 4 real playoff series will be best of 7.

    Good job by the players on these two points.

    If Oilers knock off the Hawks who will the next match-up be?

  75. hunter1909 says:

    dustrock: When you spend decades glorifying the military above any other part of your society and then spend decades trying to turn the police into the military, here’s where we end up.

    Quote of the year.

    Add: Financial bankruptcy + Political/Moral degeneration.

  76. Reja says:

    dustrock:
    Didn’t realize Katz purchased Laura Ingraham’s Lifezette platform.

    That’s disappointing.

    https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/30/media/daryl-katz-laura-ingraham-lifezette/index.html

    Right on. Laura has a huge following maybe she’ll plug the Oilers and the city of Champions.

  77. N64 says:

    Reja: If Oilers knock off the Hawks who will the next match-up be?

    Hah. It’s reseeded. So it depends on who else wins.

  78. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, Aakarov is a highly touted goalie prospect and he very well could be the next Vasilevskiy – then again, we are talking about teenage prospects and he could turn out to be the next Leland Irving or Rick DiPietro.

    I think there is a case to draft him if he’s available but, at the same time, I don’t think the Oilers can take that type of “risk” in this draft. They need that 1st round pick to “hit” – sure, there is never a guarantee that the player will turn out or reach his ceiling, however, I think there is more certainty with a skater, in particular an offensive forward, than a goalie.

    I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Holland were to take Askarov if he’s still available. I seem to have developed a pet hypothesis that Holland will draft truly guided by who he/his staff believe is BPA, without regard for team needs. I honestly have little to support it aside from the Broberg pick and his established patient development approach (he clearly doesn’t ‘expect’ his draft picks to contribute at the NHL level in the short term, and plans accordingly).

    Anyway, that digression aside, Willis did a great job of showing that forwards are more predictable draft picks than defensemen, and goalies are the least predictable. Whatever Holland does or believes, we no longer need to *think* there’s more certainty with a skater/offensive forward. Willis (I believe) proved it.

    https://theathletic.com/1828498/2020/05/21/why-nhl-teams-should-gamble-on-defencemen-over-forwards-later-in-the-draft/

  79. N64 says:

    hunter1909: Quote of the year.

    Ended up with military demanding not to being turned into police.

  80. hunter1909 says:

    N64: Ended up with military demanding not to being turned into police.

    The US military is preparing to attack Iran/Russia of all places. Meanwhile Americans live in their Disney inspired nightmare/bubble universe that imagines they’re not an empire, but some woke version of Davy Crockett lol

  81. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Finalized:

    1) No bracket – match-ups will be by seed.

    2) All 4 real playoff series will be best of 7.

    Good job by the players on these two points.

    OP. All that I can say is …. I can’t wait for puck drop in late July … No reason the Oilers can’t go on a long run. They have 2 quality goalies, 8+ good D and 2 of the best scorers in the League.

    I see VGS – EDM final in the West if the seeding all works out.

  82. jtblack says:

    jp,

    ” I honestly have little to support it ”

    This is my favorite line of the day.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eh Team: Marino and Fox are two more who had great rookie seasons

    Fox should be up there with Makar and Hughes for the Calder – 3rd place but “nominated”.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Elgin R:
    Eh Team,

    Agreed.Marino, Fox and Bear approximately the same age (22 or 23) and all took the long road.Hopefully they all have long careers.Getting just a 6th for Marino still sucks.

    Long road but different paths – Bear via CHL then AHL and the other two via college.

    Of note, neither of the two college players would sign with their Canadian draft team and had to be traded away (Marino for the 6th and Fox as a throw-in in the Hanifin trade).

  85. jtblack says:

    jp: Another question is: Is this even a thing?

    Young defenseman playing in the NHL is a thing, no question, but is it new? Is it a trend?

    I looked at relatively recent drafts (2016 back to 2012 to allow players a chance to get to the NHL so I could look at ‘normal’). Asking the question, how many years did it take top 10 picks (defensemen) to make it to the NHL (defined here as 40+ games in a season). 1 is playing 40+ games in draft +1 and so on.

    2016
    Juolevi Not yet (draft +4 just completed)
    Sergachev 2
    2015
    Hanifin 1
    Provorov 2
    Werenski 2
    2014
    Ekblad 1
    Fleury 4
    2013
    Jones 1
    Nurse 3
    Ristolainen 2
    2012
    Murray 2
    Reinhart Never
    Rielly 2
    Lindholm 2
    Dumba 3
    Pouliot Not until draft + 6
    Trouba 2
    Koekkoek Not until draft +8

    So 14 of 18 D played 40+ games by draft +4. On average those 14 did it in draft +2.1 (ignoring the 4 ‘busts’ for the purposes of the average).

    What about 20 years ago?

    1996
    Phillips 2
    Zyuzin 2
    Jackman Not until draft +7
    Salei 3
    Ward Not until draft +7
    1995
    Berard 2
    Redden 2
    Berg 1
    McLaren 1
    1994
    Jovanoski 2
    Tverdovsky 1
    Baumgartner Not until draft +12
    1993
    Pronger 1
    1992
    Hamrlik 1
    Rathje 2
    Kasparaitis 1

    So 20 years earlier 13 of 16 drafted in the top 10 played 40+ games by draft +4 (I pro-rated the lockout shortened 1995 season for Tverdovsky who played 36 of 48 games). The average of those 13 was draft +1.6.

    20 years ago top 10 drafted defensemen made it to the NHL quicker than they do today. I didn’t expect players to be making it so quickly or I’d have done 2017/2018. Turns out it’s draft +2 for those years as well. Huh.

    somebody on here ….. says that elite D men show it early .. Clearly a lot of these name are elite and most of the high picks (80%) make it within 3 years. So maybe Broberg is better and arrives sooner than we thought?

  86. jp says:

    jtblack:
    jp,

    ” I honestly have little to support it ”

    This is my favorite line of the day.

    🙂

  87. jp says:

    jtblack: somebody on here …..says that elite D men show it early .. Clearly a lot of these name are elite and most of the high picks (80%) make it within 3 years.So maybe Broberg is better and arrives sooner than we thought?

    Yes it’s definitely possible.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Actually….the 3-4 years doesn’t account for the reality of young D making an impact.

    Here is a list of young D that are impact players taken in the last 5 drafts who had an immediate impact with one year or two of being drafted:

    Noah Hanifin
    Ivan Provorov
    Mikael Sergachev
    Charlie McAvoy
    Jacob Chychrun
    Samuel Girard
    Miro Heiskanen
    Cale Makar
    Rasmus Dahlin
    Quinn Hughes
    Adam Boqvist

    While you will certainly find others who take longer to develop will indeed be impact players, the Hughes/Makar cohort are becoming much more common as the league trends increasingly younger.

    Come on – the post your responded to specificly stated that the Oilers aren’t drafting high enough to grab an exceptional talent and the likely time frame is 3-4 years development.

    You then provide a list of predominantly top 10 (many top 5) picks that showed themselves very early?

    The initial post was right – of course there are exceptions but most d-men drafted 20 plus will take a few years.

  89. John Chambers says:

    Reja: If Oilers knock off the Hawks who will the next match-up be?

    Probably Dallas.

    It’s a winnable series, for sure.

  90. Georges says:

    Let’s categorize defensemen by their career TOI/GP and PTS/GP.

    Generally, a defensemen who plays more than 20 minutes per game is a better defenseman than someone who plays fewer than 20 minutes per game. Coaches are in the habit of taking minutes from the second category defenseman and giving them to defensemen in the first category.

    The median forward scores about 0.35 Pts/GP. So let’s use that as a threshold. If a defenseman scores at or better than 0.35 Pts/GP, he’s going to be an offensive defenseman. If not, he’s a defensive defenseman.

    So we have 2 dimensions: quality as measured by TOI/GP and offense as measured by Pts/GP.

    This gives us 4 categories:

    A >= 20 minutes and >= 0.35 Pts/GP (top tier)
    B >= 20 minutes and < 0.35 Pts/GP (defensive stalwarts)
    C < 20 minutes and >= 0.35 Pts/GP (offensive specialists)
    D < 20 minutes and < 0.35 Pts/GP (the rest)

    Here are the counts of defensemen in each category drafted in 2010 or later AND who've played at least 20 games in the NHL:

    A 29
    B 10
    C 13
    D 127

    Let's call defensemen in categories A, B, and C interesting. So far, just 52 out of 179 (29%) defensemen who were drafted in 2010 or later AND who've played at least 20 games in the NHL have proved to be interesting.

    Teams that haven't drafted a single interesting defensemen in that period:

    ARI, CHI, PIT, SJS, WSH (and VGK but they get a pass)

    Two teams have drafted 4 interesting defensemen:

    ANA

    Category, Player, Draft Year, Draft Round

    A, Fowler, 2010, 1
    A, Lindholm, 2012, 1
    A, Theodore, 2013, 1
    A, Montour, 2014, 2

    CAR

    Category, Player, Draft Year, Draft Round

    A, Faulk, 2010, 2
    A, Slavin, 2012, 4
    B, Pesce, 2013, 3
    C, Hanifin, 2015, 1

    As you can see, ANA and CAR have done quite well in finding interesting defensemen in the draft.

    But one team has done better.

  91. Darth Tu says:

    John Chambers: Probably Dallas.

    It’s a winnable series, for sure.

    Or a terrifying series where the Stars win games 1-0.

  92. pts2pndr says:

    Rondo:
    Material Elvis,

    Just because you think you should stand for the Anthem doesn’t make you a racist. But that is how the narrative goes.

    We all have to stand back and breathe! Much of the anger in society today, in my opinion is misdirected. Racism is wrong and each of us as individuals has to do our Individual very best that we speak out against it. Not just when it suits are purpose but always!

  93. Justthestatsman says:

    John Chambers: Probably Dallas.

    It’s a winnable series, for sure.

    Do we know yet if the top 4 seeds will be playing any games during the play-in round and if those games could effect their seeding?

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Please provide the context for EACH player…then we’ll talk.

    I think you’ll find that virtually every one of them earned their spot and have never looked back.

    Here is where they were drafted overall so how does this list relate to the point? The point was drafting at 20 is unlikely to get an exceptional talent at D and the player will likely require some development time.

    What does a list of mainly top 10 picks have to do with that?

    5

    7

    9

    14

    16

    47

    3

    4

    1

    7

    8

  95. Georges says:

    Between 2010 and 2015, teams picked 424 defensemen.

    By my count, 43 of those defensemen (around 1 in 10) fell into one of the interesting categories (A, B, or C from above). 26 of those 43 (60%) were selected in the 1st round.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    Didn’t realize Katz purchased Laura Ingraham’s Lifezette platform.

    That’s disappointing.

    https://money.cnn.com/2018/01/30/media/daryl-katz-laura-ingraham-lifezette/index.html

    That was 2-3 years ago I believe, no?

  97. Spartacus says:

    Trevor457,

    TheCaptainEthanMoreau

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    PennersPancakes:
    Random topic (hockey), are the Colorado Avalanche overrated? Im just asking, obviously they’re a very good team especially this year but looking at their 5v5 stats are they over achieving?

    I know at some point talent will beat averages (i.e generating more breakaways will results in higher scoring %s) but for 2019-2020 are the Avalanche flying sky high?

    5v5 stats

    Shooting %: 10.2% compared to 9.2 average
    Save %: .919 compared to .908 average

    GF – GA – Difference
    Expected: 147.3, 135.3, -12
    Actual: 162, 117, 55

    Scoring chances for are 52.2 and High danger scoring chances for are 50.6%

    Is this sustainable with elite talent (Mackinnon, Makar, Rantanen) or was this year an over achievement?

    Pavel Francouz played well in the KHL but still spent the majority of last season in the AHL with a respectable .918 can he continue with a .923 in the NHL?

    Grubauer might be money at this workload level and this seasons .916 is the lowest hes had playing 20+ games. Something could be said about Washington being such dominate teams during his time but not known for great defense.

    Their future looks great with the young defense and having the majority of their picks moving forward, just curious on others thoughts of their team today and moving into the playoffs.

    I almost think they are under-rated – don’t forget, Landeskog missed 15 games or so and Rantanan close to 39 (I belive).

    If their tending holds, I see them as a legit contender.

    The scary thing is some high end prospects to come (Bryam) and cap room to improve.

  99. duct tape and foil says:

    I might not be quite so strict, but I would also not draft any goalie in the first round who is not one of the top 3 goalie prospects in the last decade. In my book the only guys that qualify are Vasilevsky and Samsonov who were both drafted around #20. Good value in both cases. The kid drafted by FLA last year @ #13 would not qualify. Poor decision IMHO.

    As for Askarov. I’m intrigued. The kid has insane lateral movement, good size and no quit. I think he’s an option @ #20 if he’s there. Would have to dig in more to be sure.

    Interesting trivia. Our own guy Mikko was the first goalie drafted (#31) by NYI in 2009.

    Unless you get a mid-round steal on an elite guy like Vasilevsky, the better option is to find and hire the next Allaire to be your goalie coach. What a factory that guy runs. I don’t think our guys are anywhere near that level.

    godot10: godot

  100. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Here is where they were drafted overall so how does this list relate to the point? The point was drafting at 20 is unlikely to get an exceptional talent at D and the player will likely require some development time.

    What does a list of mainly top 10 picks have to do with that?

    5

    7

    9

    14

    16

    47

    3

    4

    1

    7

    8

    The original post referenced Nurse #7 and Klefbom #19 .

    While both are useful defensemen, neither would be mistaken for a high end #1D.

    My point that young high impact D show up very quickly stands.

  101. defmn says:

    Georges:
    Let’s categorize defensemen by their career TOI/GP and PTS/GP.

    Generally, a defensemen who plays more than 20 minutes per game is a better defenseman than someone who plays fewer than 20 minutes per game. Coaches are in the habit of taking minutes from the second category defenseman and giving them to defensemen in the first category.

    The median forward scores about 0.35 Pts/GP. So let’s use that as a threshold. If a defenseman scores at or better than 0.35 Pts/GP, he’s going to be an offensive defenseman. If not, he’s a defensive defenseman.

    So we have 2 dimensions: quality as measured by TOI/GP and offense as measured by Pts/GP.

    This gives us 4 categories:

    A >= 20 minutes and >= 0.35 Pts/GP (top tier)
    B >= 20 minutes and < 0.35 Pts/GP (defensive stalwarts)
    C < 20 minutes and >= 0.35 Pts/GP (offensive specialists)
    D < 20 minutes and < 0.35 Pts/GP (the rest)

    Here are the counts of defensemen in each category drafted in 2010 or later AND who’ve played at least 20 games in the NHL:

    A 29
    B 10
    C 13
    D 127

    Let’s call defensemen in categories A, B, and C interesting. So far, just 52 out of 179 (29%) defensemen who were drafted in 2010 or later AND who’ve played at least 20 games in the NHL have proved to be interesting.

    Teams that haven’t drafted a single interesting defensemen in that period:

    ARI, CHI, PIT, SJS, WSH (and VGK but they get a pass)

    Two teams have drafted 4 interesting defensemen:

    ANA

    Category, Player, Draft Year, Draft Round

    A, Fowler, 2010, 1
    A, Lindholm, 2012, 1
    A, Theodore, 2013, 1
    A, Montour, 2014, 2

    CAR

    Category, Player, Draft Year, Draft Round

    A, Faulk, 2010, 2
    A, Slavin, 2012, 4
    B, Pesce, 2013, 3
    C, Hanifin, 2015, 1

    As you can see, ANA and CAR have done quite well in finding interesting defensemen in the draft.

    But one team has done better.

    And Anaheim let two of them slip away I believe.

  102. meanashell11 says:

    godot10: And who exactly is responsible for the mass incarceration of young black men in America over the last generation, and for mandatory minimums, and the disparity in sentencing between cocaine and crack.

    Joe Biden was head of the Senate Justice Committee almost all of that time.He guided the Clintons mass incarceration bill (millions of young black menover the last generation) and mandatory minimums through Congress.Biden maintained the disparity in sentencing between cocaine (white men crime) and crack (black men).Clinton and Biden oversaw the creation of the US private prison system to hold all these young black men and to deliver massive profits to their owner donors.

    For all those who think that change is coming in November.

    That is why it is called systematic racism.

    And before we get all down on Americans.Our PM cannot recall how many times he wore blackface.He groped a female reporter.He targetted an indigenous person to beat up and metaphorically scalp (by taking his hair).He mocked Indigenous protestors at an LIberal fundraiser.He bullied an indigenous women AG, attempted to get her to interfere in the criminal prosecution of a powerful connected Canadian corporation.He also fired her and booted her from his party.And the Liberal Party, the Laurentian establishment and their media, normalize and protect him, and have removed his racism from the Overton window in Canada.Our PM is the apotheosis of white privilege and the protection racket which shields him is the epitome of systematic racism.

    Wow. Maybe you should get a box and stand in the corner of a park while the rest of us try to talk hockey.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: Good.

    Apply the 22 game NBA format to the NHL and notice how much the NBA got right:

    Chicago and Montreal would be golfing.
    Oil would be a lock for the final 16.

    I’m just fine with MTL and CHI “making it” – fulfilling some regional TV contract obligations creates additional revenue for next year and is a plus for all parties, including the fans.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: If Oilers knock off the Hawks who will the next match-up be?

    Don’t know – the fourth place team in the 4-team round robin – likely Dallas.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Holland were to take Askarov if he’s still available. I seem to have developed a pet hypothesis that Holland will draft truly guided by who he/his staff believe is BPA, without regard for team needs. I honestly have little to support it aside from the Broberg pick and his established patient development approach (he clearly doesn’t ‘expect’ his draft picks to contribute at the NHL level in the short term, and plans accordingly).

    Anyway, that digression aside, Willis did a great job of showing that forwards are more predictable draft picks than defensemen, and goalies are the least predictable. Whatever Holland does or believes, we no longer need to *think* there’s more certainty with a skater/offensive forward. Willis (I believe) proved it.

    https://theathletic.com/1828498/2020/05/21/why-nhl-teams-should-gamble-on-defencemen-over-forwards-later-in-the-draft/

    I agree with your hypothesis on “best player available”, I’m just not sure how Holland determines BPA with goalies vs. skaters.

    Your second paragpraph kind of makes my point on the riskiness of picking the tender and I don’t think the Oilers are in a position to take that risk with this pick.

  106. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m just fine with MTL and CHI “making it” – fulfilling some regional TV contract obligations creates additional revenue for next year and is a plus for all parties, including the fans.

    Oh good. We’ve gone from how to explain it to Corey to how to explain it to Wirtz.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: OP.All that I can say is …. I can’t wait for puck drop in late July … No reason the Oilers can’t go on a long run.They have 2 quality goalies, 8+ good D and 2 of the best scorers in the League.

    I see VGS – EDM final in the West if the seeding all works out.

    I can’t disagree with a word of that.

    I wouldn’t be shocked if they lost in the qualifying (although I do think its unlikely as the Oilers are a superior team) but it also wouldn’t shock me to see them win 2-3-4 rounds. It’ll likely be somewhere in between which is OK as well.

    The deadline acquisitions provided some real depth and gives Coach T. and Coach P. many options.

    Listening to Coach T on Oilers Now yesterday, I see the following to start if noone comes to camp super unprepared:

    Ennis/McDavid/Kassin
    Nuge/Drai/Yamamoto
    AA/Sheahan/Archie
    Neal/Khaira/Chiasson

    Klefbom/Larsson
    Nurse/Bear
    Rusty/Green

    Smith
    Koskinen

    Nygard, Haas (Benson, Jurco, Granlund, McLeod)

    Jones, Benning (Lagesson, Bouchard)

    Skinner

  108. defmn says:

    meanashell11: Wow. Maybe you should get a box and stand in the corner of a park while the rest of us try to talk hockey.

    With all due respect ‘Meanashell11’ isn’t this is an odd ‘only post of the day’ for you?

  109. Pouzar says:

    godot10: And who exactly is responsible for the mass incarceration of young black men in America over the last generation, and for mandatory minimums, and the disparity in sentencing between cocaine and crack.

    Joe Biden was head of the Senate Justice Committee almost all of that time.He guided the Clintons mass incarceration bill (millions of young black menover the last generation) and mandatory minimums through Congress.Biden maintained the disparity in sentencing between cocaine (white men crime) and crack (black men).Clinton and Biden oversaw the creation of the US private prison system to hold all these young black men and to deliver massive profits to their owner donors.

    For all those who think that change is coming in November.

    That is why it is called systematic racism.

    And before we get all down on Americans.Our PM cannot recall how many times he wore blackface.He groped a female reporter.He targetted an indigenous person to beat up and metaphorically scalp (by taking his hair).He mocked Indigenous protestors at an LIberal fundraiser.He bullied an indigenous women AG, attempted to get her to interfere in the criminal prosecution of a powerful connected Canadian corporation.He also fired her and booted her from his party.And the Liberal Party, the Laurentian establishment and their media, normalize and protect him, and have removed his racism from the Overton window in Canada.Our PM is the apotheosis of white privilege and the protection racket which shields him is the epitome of systematic racism.

    *slow golf clap*

  110. Pouzar says:

    meanashell11: Wow. Maybe you should get a box and stand in the corner of a park while the rest of us try to talk hockey.

    Fuck off.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Justthestatsman: Do we know yet if the top 4 seeds will be playing any games during the play-in round and if those games could effect their seeding?

    Yes we do.

    The top 4 teams play each other in a round-robin to determine their seeding.

    Regular season rules (i.e. not crazy OT games).

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: The original post referenced Nurse #7 and Klefbom#19 .

    While both are useful defensemen, neither would be mistaken for a high end #1D.

    My point that young high impact D show up very quickly stands.

    What you actually really showed is that top 10 drafted d-men often show up early.

    Not relevant when discussing the potential pick around 20.

  113. duct tape and foil says:

    Pouzar,

    Oh yeah…….Godot10 nailed it.

  114. hunter1909 says:

    This is a fun blog today.

  115. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: What you actually really showed is that top 10 drafted d-men often show up early.

    Not relevant when discussing the potential pick around 20.

    Well, he got the second part right.

  116. Harpers Hair says:

    PM Breaking News
    @PMBreakingNews
    Breaking: Minneapolis City Council President says that the Minneapolis Police Department will be dismantled and replaced with a ‘transformative new model of public safety’.

    More:

    https://m.startribune.com/minneapolis-city-council-to-vote-on-first-changes-to-police/571032682/?fbclid=IwAR38xv_6DXEyR4C-U9mNTUDAKB9g20mGo2h5sTgKjVpSXqpuj5BsmrHiBpU

  117. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair:
    PM Breaking News
    @PMBreakingNews
    Breaking: Minneapolis City Council President says that the Minneapolis Police Department will be dismantled and replaced with a ‘transformative new model of public safety’.

    More:

    https://m.startribune.com/minneapolis-city-council-to-vote-on-first-changes-to-police/571032682/?fbclid=IwAR38xv_6DXEyR4C-U9mNTUDAKB9g20mGo2h5sTgKjVpSXqpuj5BsmrHiBpU

    Over/under odds on how long before a social worker gets killed responding to an incident currently handled by the police?

  118. leadfarmer says:

    Pouzar: *slow golf clap*

    It doesn’t matter what you did 20 years ago as much as where you are today.
    Most of those people have realized their opinions were wrong and apologized for them. Others haven’t and are still stuck in those times.
    This blog 12 years ago was filled with barely clothed women.
    Now not so much.
    Times change, people’s opinions change

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    NHL announces phase 2 will start Monday.

    I don’t anticipate many players will jump to travel to their team cities (as long as they have access for ice and trailing where they are) but it’s a solid step.

    Look forward to hearing about Oilers skating at various locals.

  120. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: Over/under odds on how long before a social worker gets killed responding to an incident currently handled by the police?

    I would guess the first day of the kinder/gentler intervention.

    Armed police find domestic disputes to be the most dangerous calls they receive.

    I can see social workers and paramedics resigning enmasse and moving out of Minneapolis.

  121. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair:
    PM Breaking News
    @PMBreakingNews
    Breaking: Minneapolis City Council President says that the Minneapolis Police Department will be dismantled and replaced with a ‘transformative new model of public safety’.

    More:

    https://m.startribune.com/minneapolis-city-council-to-vote-on-first-changes-to-police/571032682/?fbclid=IwAR38xv_6DXEyR4C-U9mNTUDAKB9g20mGo2h5sTgKjVpSXqpuj5BsmrHiBpU

    Did you read the article?
    Because that is not what is happening at all
    It’s one persons idea
    Just like Hall of Famer Bogdan Laugherty

  122. alberta bound edmonton says:

    I love this blog. Thank you Lowetide. We have a space that respects diverse contributions as well offers insightful conversation.

  123. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Did you read the article?
    Because that is not what is happening at all
    It’s one persons idea
    Just like Hall of Famer Bogdan Laugherty

    Nonsense.

    “In the days since Floyd died, several elected officials have publicly floated various reform proposals, ranging from defunding the department immediately, to taking a slower approach and sending social workers or mental health professionals to some calls currently handled by police.”

    “Council Member Jeremiah Ellison, one of the most vocal critics of the city’s response to the protests and riots that followed Floyd’s death, tweeted Thursday: “We are going to dismantle the Minneapolis Police Department.”

    “Bender, a few hours later, issued her own tweet repeating that message and adding that they will “replace it with a transformative new model of public safety.”

    In an interview, she said she could imagine a scenario where the state’s investigation results in Minneapolis police eventually entering a receivership that restructures the department.

    Speaking only for herself and not for the council as whole, Bender said she would support shifting from a traditional police department to a wider public safety department oriented toward violence prevention and community-based services.”

    NOT one person’s idea.

  124. jp says:

    leadfarmer: It doesn’t matter what you did 20 years ago as much as where you are today.
    Most of those people have realized their opinions were wrong and apologized for them.Others haven’t and are still stuck in those times.
    This blog 12 years ago was filled with barely clothed women.
    Now not so much.
    Times change, people’s opinions change

    Really good post.

  125. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer: It doesn’t matter what you did 20 years ago as much as where you are today.
    Most of those people have realized their opinions were wrong and apologized for them.Others haven’t and are still stuck in those times.
    This blog 12 years ago was filled with barely clothed women.
    Now not so much.
    Times change, people’s opinions change

    It is the apotheosis of white privilege to assert that having made such a grievous error, that one is entitled to the Presidency. That one is an indispensable person.

    If a so-called progressive is going to walk the walk instead of just talk the talk, they have to step aside.

    P.S. It was not “an opinion”. Millions of young black men were sent to jail. Their lives “ruined”. They lost their right to vote. Ironically, for the Clinton’s, that probably cost Hillary the Presidency. In the last few years, Democratic Governors are racing to restore the voting rights of black males that Clinton and Biden took away.

  126. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    If this happens, Minneapolis will become unlivable. Some parts of the city aren’t too far from it now. Criminals, organized crime and gangs will move in and become entrenched as those that are economically capable of leaving (yes, white people) will do so. If you want an example of white privilege writ large, this will be it. Newark, Detroit and Baltimore are going to look like great places to raise a family in comparison to the once beautiful city of Minneapolis.

  127. defmn says:

    Harpers Hair: I would guess the first day of the kinder/gentler intervention.

    Armed police find domestic disputes to be the most dangerous calls they receive.

    I can see social workers and paramedics resigning enmasse and moving out of Minneapolis.

    I try to stay out of the political discussions here for the same reason I never discuss hockey on political blogs. (Nobody there knows anything about hockey.) 😉

    But this is a level of stupid and dangerous that needs to be noted.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: Oh good. We’ve gone from how to explain it to Corey to how to explain it to Wirtz.

    I’m not sure what you are trying to get at with that comment – its over my head I guess – but increasing revenue right now (including by not having next seasons revenue cut in to by TV contracts rolling over) is massively important.

    These are not “normal times” and, yes, the decision was not made solely on fairness with regard to on-ice product and the teams but that combined with economics and the health of the business.

    Creating as much revenue as possible right now doesn’t just benefit the players and the owners, it benefits me as a fan as well and I understand the decision and support the nuances behind it.

  129. Harpers Hair says:

    defmn: I try to stay out of the political discussions here for the same reason I never discuss hockey on political blogs. (Nobody there knows anything about hockey.)😉

    But this is a level of stupid and dangerous that needs to be noted.

    This has already been attempted in certain ways in Sweden.

    It has become a dystopian shit hole.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-blast/sweden-suffers-surge-in-bomb-attacks-as-gang-violence-rises-idUSKBN1ZF1PD

  130. hunter1909 says:

    leadfarmer: It doesn’t matter what you did 20 years ago as much as where you are today.
    Most of those people have realized their opinions were wrong and apologized for them.Others haven’t and are still stuck in those times.
    This blog 12 years ago was filled with barely clothed women.
    Now not so much.
    Times change, people’s opinions change

    LOL @ “barely clothed women”

    When modern tarts prance around in “slutwalks” daring men to look at their tattooed torsos.

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I enjoy the civil versions of widespread discourse here, it’s what makes it more engrossing than the typical wish I was shirtless and face painted sports blogs.

    Still it seems there is a very healthy dose of Dunning-Kruger about.

    Statements of massive error and impending doom from our friends that lean left.

    Wrong almost every single time as well, fess ups few. As always everywhere.

    I would exclude Sheps as the takes are spot on, unfair professorial advantage specific to topic commented on 😄

    Having differing opinions is ok. I noticed when travelling years ago that other cultures can tolerate it better at lower levels like this than Canadians and US citizens (American means all of the peoples of the Americas, should have picked a better country name) do.

    I think most of you are wrong and I’m right or why make comments? 😄

  132. Georges says:

    The Oilers have drafted 5 interesting defensemen in the 2010’s, more than any other team:

    Category, Player, Draft Year, Draft Round

    A, Klefbom, 2011, 1
    C, Gustafsson, 2012, 4
    B, Nurse, 2013, 1
    B, Bear, 2015, 5
    A, Marino, 2015, 6

    Gustafsson and Marino ended up going to two teams who batted 0 over the 2010’s as far as being able to find interesting defensemen in the draft: CHI and PIT respectively.

    This reinforces the point that roster construction is much more than building through the draft. The rosters of most teams are mostly made up of players they didn’t draft.

    Depending on how you’re keeping score, the Oilers are either at or very near the top when it comes to drafting defensemen in the 2010’s.

  133. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair: Nonsense.

    “In the days since Floyd died, several elected officials have publicly floated various reform proposals, ranging from defunding the department immediately, to taking a slower approach and sending social workers or mental health professionals to some calls currently handled by police.”

    “Council Member Jeremiah Ellison, one of the most vocal critics of the city’s response to the protests and riots that followed Floyd’s death, tweeted Thursday: “We are going to dismantle the Minneapolis Police Department.”

    “Bender, a few hours later, issued her own tweet repeating that message and adding that they will “replace it with a transformative new model of public safety.”

    In an interview, she said she could imagine a scenario where the state’s investigation results in Minneapolis police eventually entering a receivership that restructures the department.

    Speaking only for herself and not for the council as whole, Bender said she would support shifting from a traditional police department to a wider public safety department oriented toward violence prevention and community-based services.”

    NOT one person’s idea.

    In some ways its fun watching the yanks destroying their empire from within. They just keep getting stupider and stupider with stuff like this.

  134. Harpers Hair says:

    hunter1909: In some ways its fun watching the yanks destroying their empire from within. They just keep getting stupider and stupider with stuff like this.

    When the elephant rolls over, the mouse gets crushed.

  135. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree with your hypothesis on “best player available”, I’m just not sure how Holland determines BPA with goalies vs. skaters.

    Your second paragpraph kind of makes my point on the riskiness of picking the tender and I don’t think the Oilers are in a position to take that risk with this pick.

    Yeah I started out thinking about the 2nd paragraph part. It definitely is less risky to take a forward with skill early.

    That aside, no, we don’t know how Holland determines BPA. I guess that was part of what I was saying. He apparently valued a (potential) minute munching defenseman more highly than a (potential) top 6 forward. He may well value a (potential) starting G over a F or a D this time around (goalie is kind of a key position after all). That is, if he believes in Askarov. We just don’t know. The collective wisdom of this blog was wrong last year, we may well be again.

  136. flyfish1168 says:

    Material Elvis: Kneeling during the anthem was a way to protest racial injustice and police brutality towards black people.It had nothing to do with the military or disrespect towards the flag.

    +1

    Unfortunately someone with a loader blow horn wants to change the narrative.

  137. Scungilli Slushy says:

    hunter1909: In some ways its fun watching the yanks destroying their empire from within. They just keep getting stupider and stupider with stuff like this.

    It’s simple really at the core. Per Sheps links, the Anglo/ Euro white population is going to be a lower percentage of the US population soon enough.

    Oppression and unfairness isn’t maintainable. Sadly a small chance they realize it and course correct before it’s an absolute necessity. See the history of great nations forever.

  138. meanashell11 says:

    defmn: With all due respect ‘Meanashell11’ isn’t this is an odd ‘only post of the day’ for you?

    I actually rarely post. I like to read about hockey.

  139. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    But have since tried to restore as opposed to the other guy

    Harpers Hair: Nonsense.

    “In the days since Floyd died, several elected officials have publicly floated various reform proposals, ranging from defunding the department immediately, to taking a slower approach and sending social workers or mental health professionals to some calls currently handled by police.”

    “Council Member Jeremiah Ellison, one of the most vocal critics of the city’s response to the protests and riots that followed Floyd’s death, tweeted Thursday: “We are going to dismantle the Minneapolis Police Department.”

    “Bender, a few hours later, issued her own tweet repeating that message and adding that they will “replace it with a transformative new model of public safety.”

    In an interview, she said she could imagine a scenario where the state’s investigation results in Minneapolis police eventually entering a receivership that restructures the department.

    Speaking only for herself and not for the council as whole, Bender said she would support shifting from a traditional police department to a wider public safety department oriented toward violence prevention and community-based services.”

    NOT one person’s idea.

    Great you found two people.
    Bender and Ellison is not the city council it is two members, and these are just suggestions and no where near finalized.
    Changes in the police force are clearly needed since In Minneapolis we are back to the same situation every few years and previous changes did nothing.
    What future changes will be is to be determined.
    Right now everyone is outraged and rightfully so. But some of the ideas are similar to the get rid of ICE a few years ago.

  140. jp says:

    Georges:
    The Oilers have drafted 5 interesting defensemen in the 2010’s, more than any other team:

    Category, Player, Draft Year, Draft Round

    A, Klefbom, 2011, 1
    C, Gustafsson, 2012, 4
    B, Nurse, 2013, 1
    B, Bear, 2015, 5
    A, Marino, 2015, 6

    Gustafsson and Marino ended up going to two teams who batted 0 over the 2010’s as far as being able to find interesting defensemen in the draft: CHI and PIT respectively.

    This reinforces the point that roster construction is much more than building through the draft. The rosters of most teams are mostly made up of players they didn’t draft.

    Depending on how you’re keeping score, the Oilers are either at or very near the top when it comes to drafting defensemen in the 2010’s.

    I figured this might be coming when you left the last one hanging but had forgotten about it in the intervening hours.

    Interesting.

  141. meanashell11 says:

    Pouzar: Fuck off.

    Try talking about hockey for a change.

    I live just outside of NYC, I do not need to hear all of this political commentary on a hockey blog.

  142. Harpers Hair says:

    Georges:
    The Oilers have drafted 5 interesting defensemen in the 2010’s, more than any other team:

    Category, Player, Draft Year, Draft Round

    A, Klefbom, 2011, 1
    C, Gustafsson, 2012, 4
    B, Nurse, 2013, 1
    B, Bear, 2015, 5
    A, Marino, 2015, 6

    Gustafsson and Marino ended up going to two teams who batted 0 over the 2010’s as far as being able to find interesting defensemen in the draft: CHI and PIT respectively.

    This reinforces the point that roster construction is much more than building through the draft. The rosters of most teams are mostly made up of players they didn’t draft.

    Depending on how you’re keeping score, the Oilers are either at or very near the top when it comes to drafting defensemen in the 2010’s.

    Dallas D drafts since 2010 draft:

    John Klingberg 425 GP

    Patrick Nemeth 314

    Jamie Oleksiak 313

    Esa Lindell 308

    Miro Heiskanen 150

    Two elite D and a dominant second pairing D in Lindell.

    Thomas Harley from the 2019 draft is trending as another tremendous pick up.

    All but Nemeth still play for the Stars.

  143. Scungilli Slushy says:

    What is the thing that has torpedoed the Oilers for years? I can’t even mention ‘06.

    Goalering. How do teams go deep in the playoffs?

    Unlikely playoff and reg season runs?

    It’s the most important position on the team. It should be the one hardest gone after. If there is a first round goalie talent still available in the first round and you have no one else you take them.

    Or trade for a young prospect. I agree using JP and an excess prospect or whatever to the Rangers. JP and a second. Seconds have very low value in producing impact players. JP is a toasted asset.

    This is where the goalie scouts make their money or lose their jobs. If one of the Ranger guys has the goods put the assets there where it may hit the jackpot rather than let them atrophy on the tree.

    The Oilers need their solid starter tout suite, Connor isn’t getting any younger, it’s go time.

  144. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: several elected officials have publicly floated various reform proposals, ranging from defunding the department immediately, to taking a slower approach and sending social workers or mental health professionals to some calls currently handled by police.”

    Your reading comprehension needs a workout.

    “several elected officials have publicly floated various reform proposals, ranging from defunding the department immediately, to taking a slower approach and sending social workers or mental health professionals to some calls currently handled by police.”

  145. Georges says:

    jp: I figured this might be coming when you left the last one hanging but had forgotten about it in the intervening hours.

    Interesting.

    You had this from earlier:

    “… Willis did a great job of showing that forwards are more predictable draft picks than defensemen, and goalies are the least predictable. Whatever Holland does or believes, we no longer need to *think* there’s more certainty with a skater/offensive forward. Willis (I believe) proved it.”

    I’m curious. What did Willis prove?

    I know defensemen are over represented in the draft overall while forwards are over represented in the first round. By over represented I mean that teams tend to pick a greater share of certain positions than that position’s representation in a nightly roster.

    By their over representation alone, defensemen draft picks should have a lower success rate than forward draft picks. Goalies make up about 10% of draft picks and they make up 10% of the nightly roster so they should have an average success rate. Forwards are overall more successful as draft picks because teams tend to over select defensemen in the draft.

    At least I think that’s how it works…

  146. defmn says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    What is the thing that has torpedoed the Oilers for years? I can’t even mention ‘06.

    Goalering. How do teams go deep in the playoffs?

    Unlikely playoff and reg season runs?

    It’s the most important position on the team. It should be the one hardest gone after. If there is a first round goalie talent still available in the first round and you have no one else you take them.

    Or trade for a young prospect. I agree using JP and an excess prospect or whatever to the Rangers. JP and a second. Seconds have very low value in producing impact players. JP is a toasted asset.

    This is where the goalie scouts make their money or lose their jobs. If one of the Ranger guys has the goods put the assets there where it may hit the jackpot rather than let them atrophy on the tree.

    The Oilers need their solid starter tout suite, Connor isn’t getting any younger, it’s go time.

    Unfortunately we have no 2nd this year or next. It will be interesting to see what NYR does. Lundqvist is on record as saying he wants to play for several more years and it isn’t always easy to move guys like him who have been the face of the franchise for so long even if it is the right thing to do for the franchise – which I think it is.

  147. Scungilli Slushy says:

    defmn: Unfortunately we have no 2nd this year or next. It will be interesting to see what NYR does. Lundqvist is on record as saying he wants to play for several more years and it isn’t always easy to move guys like him who have been the face of the franchise for so long even if it is the right thing to do for the franchise – which I think it is.

    Yes but they aren’t hard to get, KR? Etc. The point being Id rather spend there than most other positions.

  148. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Your reading comprehension needs a workout.

    “several elected officials have publicly floated various reform proposals, ranging from defunding the department immediately, to taking a slower approach and sending social workers or mental health professionals to some calls currently handled by police.”

    Yes and doesn’t sound like the police department has been dismantled as you stated

  149. Georges says:

    Harpers Hair: Dallas D drafts since 2010 draft:

    John Klingberg 425 GP

    Patrick Nemeth 314

    Jamie Oleksiak 313

    Esa Lindell 308

    Miro Heiskanen 150

    Two elite D and a dominant second pairing D in Lindell.

    Thomas Harley from the 2019 draft is trending as another tremendous pick up.

    All but Nemeth still play for the Stars.

    That’s why I added the depending on how you’re keeping score part.

    Heiskanen (A), Klingberg (A), and Lindell (B) are all interesting by the criteria I used above.

    They’ve all averaged big minutes over their careers, more than any of the Oilers’ selections.

    But what’s a dominant second pairing D?

  150. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Your reading comprehension needs a workout.

    “several elected officials have publicly floated various reform proposals, ranging from defunding the department immediately, to taking a slower approach and sending social workers or mental health professionals to some calls currently handled by police.”

    And now the goal posts have shifted to various other proposals
    Because well of course they have
    We need lots of various proposals cause the previous proposals didn’t work

  151. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: It is the apotheosis of white privilege to assert that having made such a grievous error, that one is entitled to the Presidency.That one is an indispensable person.

    If a so-called progressive is going to walk the walk instead of just talk the talk, they have to step aside.

    P.S. It was not “an opinion”.Millions of young black men were sent to jail. Their lives “ruined”. They lost their right to vote.Ironically, for the Clinton’s, that probably cost Hillary the Presidency.In the last few years, Democratic Governors are racing to restore the voting rights of black males that Clinton and Biden took away.

    I don’t know if you realize
    But Joe Biden is the presidential nominee because of the African American population.

  152. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Yes and doesn’t sound like the police department has been dismantled as you stated

    I said nothing of the sort.

    I relayed a Tweet from the Minneapolis City Council President.

    Take it up with him.

  153. defmn says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Yes but they aren’t hard to get, KR? Etc. The point being Id rather spend there than most other positions.

    I agree with this. I am still intrigued by a suggestion made by our host here some months back of offering Puljujarvi to Buffalo for Ullmaark. Hutton has one more year and Johannsson looks like he is ready to move up.

  154. Georges says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    “What is the thing that has torpedoed the Oilers for years? I can’t even mention ‘06.”

    Umm… not enough forwards who can score, not enough coaches who can coach, not enough GMs who can GM?

    “Goalering. How do teams go deep in the playoffs?”

    Umm… by playing better as a team than the teams they play against and a little bit of luck?

  155. Harpers Hair says:

    Georges: That’s why I added the depending on how you’re keeping score part.

    Heiskanen (A), Klingberg (A), and Lindell (B) are all interesting by the criteria I used above.

    They’ve all averaged big minutes over their careers, more than any of the Oilers’ selections.

    But what’s a dominant second pairing D?

    I would think Lindell as a B but this past season I expect he would get a B+

  156. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: I said nothing of the sort.

    I relayed a Tweet from the Minneapolis City Council President.

    Take it up with him.

    Well I guess that should teach you to not blindly repeat a tweet
    So blindly that you don’t even realize that Lisa Bender is a her.

  157. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Well I guess that should teach you to not blindly repeat a tweet
    So blindly that you don’t even realize that Lisa Bender is a her.

    Good grief your picayune responses are exhausting.

    If you don’t want to see what is going on in Minneapolis, stick your fingers in your ears and bellow.

    I don’t care.

  158. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Georges:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    “What is the thing that has torpedoed the Oilers for years? I can’t even mention ‘06.”

    Umm… not enough forwards who can score, not enough coaches who can coach, not enough GMs who can GM?

    “Goalering. How do teams go deep in the playoffs?”

    Umm… by playing better as a team than the teams they play against and a little bit of luck?

    I get what you’re saying but the only time the Oilers competed well with a lack of talent was all goalies. As this current version got older amend deeper Inconsistency in net kept them out of playoffs. Now even still lacking a balanced team, despite Connor and Leon, stability in net got them in. Excellence would have had them with more points IMO.

    Many highly skilled teams lose it when the goalie slumps, see Tampa. In fact you of all people should be able to extract the value of it. Good teams can win with average SV%, but why is it so many really good teams have really strong goalies? Chicken or egg?

    Some contending teams limit SA, but SV% is a lot about the player as well.

  159. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Good grief your picayune responses are exhausting.

    If you don’t want to see what is going on in Minneapolis, stick your fingers in your ears and bellow.

    I don’t care.

    This is rich very very rich.
    Also I lived in Minneapolis for years and spend many weeks there each year, and I live nearby
    I care I deeply care
    Now go cuddle with your Rafferty doll

  160. Georges says:

    LT:

    So the lesson of staring at Maksimov’s rookie scoring total in the AHL is the same as the lesson of Tyler Pitlick, Jujhar Khaira and Chris VandeVelde. Quoting “Farm Workers”, my annual look at minor league players: “Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera used the AHL as a stepping stone, grinding their skills into a (close to) mistake free two-way game while learning to score enough to stay in the lineup. These are the players you’re looking for.”

    Kirill Maksimov can penalty kill and he can score. He’s got some things to learn and he’ll need to catch a break if he’s going to spend a prolonged period on an NHL scoring line. Between Cleary, Pisani and Chimera, there were no 50-point seasons and just one over 45 points (Cleary). Role players with utility are very useful for NHL teams. Maksimov could be one.

    —-

    Cleary scored 0.52 Pts/GP over his 938 game career. Really, he’s in a different category than the other two guys.

    Pisani scored 0.43 Pts/GP over his 462 game career. Health problems interfered.

    Chimera score 0.37 Pts/GP over his 1107 game career. Average was hurt by his last feeble year.

    Between Cleary, Pisani, and Chimera, there were 16 seasons of 30 or more points.

    These guys aren’t role players. They’re players. As in, you can put them on the ice against a typical NHL forward and expect to come out on top because they’re likely to score more than the typical NHL forward. If you had these guys as 3rd line players in their prime, you’ve done very well in terms of team construction.

    JJ, Pitlick, and VandeVelde would be exactly the kind of below average scoring forwards that Cleary, Pisani, and Chimera would dominate. They don’t measure up on that scale.

    As far as Maksimov, it’s hard to tell if a forward can penalty kill. It’s easier to tell if he can score. And no way, no how is a 5th round pick finding time on an NHL scoring line if he manages just 5 goals in an AHL season. Good NHL teams are choosing scorers for every forward role. It’s the bad ones who settle for the role play without the scoring.

  161. Lowetide says:

    Georges:
    LT:
    And no way, no how is a 5th round pick finding time on an NHL scoring line if he manages just 5 goals in an AHL season.

    If we were blessed with time on ice, I might agree with you. As it is, we are not.

  162. Genjutsu says:

    ArmchairGM: Why does America hate itself?

    Because it’s beautiful?

  163. Georges says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I get what you’re saying but the only time the Oilers competed well with a lack of talent was all goalies. As this current version got older amend deeper Inconsistency in net kept them out of playoffs. Now even still lacking a balanced team, despite Connor and Leon, stability in net got them in. Excellence would have had them with more points IMO.

    Many highly skilled teams lose it when the goalie slumps, see Tampa. In fact you of all people should be able to extract the value of it. Good teams can win with average SV%, but why is it so many really good teams have really strong goalies? Chicken or egg?

    Some contending teams limit SA, but SV% is a lot about the player as well.

    Goalie play isn’t unimportant. If your goalie loses confidence and lets in goals he maybe shouldn’t, yes, it’s hard to win. But that’s oversold. Most of the time goalies don’t fall apart. They all stop a big majority of the shots they face. Because most of the shots they face are (despite all the flailing and theatrics) routine. The goalie does a good job of judging the angle, occupies most of the space the shooter could possibly aim at, and his teammates do a good job of harassing the attempt. And, ploop, the puck hits the goalie. If your team makes it a habit of giving NHL shooters uncontested chances from dangerous spots, every goalie is going to struggle. If they keep making save after save in those situations, don’t credit the goalie… blame the shooters. They didn’t do their job. Team play is dependent on goalie play, but goalie play is highly dependent on team play. There may indeed be some psychology involved in playing in front of your starter as opposed to your backup. But there’s not that much variation in the results, definitely nothing that approaches significance. Often backups fare worse because they get the tougher spots in the schedule, second game of a back to back, stuff like that.

  164. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georges:
    But what’s a dominant second pairing D?

    I see how you might be confused – you are used to hearing the more common title for that: “A Raffety”.

  165. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Harpers Hair: The original post referenced Nurse #7 and Klefbom#19 .

    While both are useful defensemen, neither would be mistaken for a high end #1D.

    My point that young high impact D show up very quickly stands.

    Using 40+ points as a cut off level to determine when a player takes off as an impact D.

    Brent Burns – Played regularly but didn’t break out until D+5. Then slumped, and didn’t become a consistent impact player until D+8. Some seasons with SJS as a forward, but wasn’t traded until D+9.

    Victor Hedman – D+5

    Duncan Keith – Steady early results in 30-point range but took off in D+6

    Zdeno Chara – D+6

    Oliver Ekman-Larsson – D+5

    Erik Karlsson – D+3

    Roman Josi – D+6

    Shea Webber – D+5

    Ryan Suter – D+6

    Kris Letang – D+6

    John Klingberg – D+6

    Alex Pietrangelo – D+4

    There are plenty more, but I think I’ve made my point. I’ve actually pointed this out to you before, but you chose to not reply.

  166. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Georges,

    Great series of posts today.

    Very interesting findings.

    Curious of your take on the “impact defensemen announce themselves early” mantra that floats around.

  167. defmn says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Georges,

    Great series of posts today.

    Very interesting findings.

    Curious of your take on the “impact defensemen announce themselves early” mantra that floats around.

    I’ll second that.

  168. Georges says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Georges,

    Great series of posts today.

    Very interesting findings.

    Curious of your take on the “impact defensemen announce themselves early” mantra that floats around.

    Here’s one take.

    I think the best way to evaluate how well a defenseman does his job is to keep track of how long his HC asks him to do it. Impact defensemen are distinguished by their relatively high TOI. They’re the “go to” for their HC. Different HC’s have different sets of options. They may play a defenseman more than they should because they don’t like their other options. So TOI can be deceptive. Maybe if we can find some threshold to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

    Here’s a quote from a helpful article penned by Kevin Shattenkirk:

    https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/elite-defensemen-101-kevin-shattenkirk-nhl

    He’s talking about Ryan Suter:

    “Cerebral. You have to recognize him as one of the smartest defensemen in the league. Suter is probably the player most similar to Nick Lidström that we have in the game today. To have the stamina to play 29 minutes a game in the NHL is ridiculous. If you think about it, that means he’s out there every other shift. Personally, my minutes have gone up this year from 20 to 22, and even that little difference is noticeable. I definitely feel it after games. Adding another seven minutes onto that is almost unthinkable.”

    Shattenkirk said 22 minutes is a test of his stamina. I’m going to try a little higher than that: 23 minutes. I’m going to guess that it’s very hard for HC’s to push defensemen above that threshold unless the defensemen can actually and consistently perform at that threshold.

    In 2019-20, just 33 out of 303 defensemen who played in the NHL managed to average 23 minutes. Around 1 per team but not distributed evenly across teams. And around 1 in 10 defensemen who played in the season. If you look at career averages and include seasons from 2000-01 to 19-20, there have been only 52 defensemen who averaged 23 minutes or more. Out of 1136 defensemen who’ve played over that time. Roughly 1 in 20.

    So, by this approach, an impact defenseman is in the 95th percentile on career TOI/GP. He’s a defenseman who averages 23 minutes or more for his career. And he arrives as an impact defenseman in the first year he averages 23 minutes.

    Let’s see how many defensemen drafted 2000 or later fit this criteria and let’s also list their age when they first hit the 23 minute mark:

    Player, Career TOI/GP, Age of first 23-minute season

    Miro Heiskanen, 23:24, 19
    Drew Doughty, 26:15, 19
    Jay Bouwmeester, 24:07, 20
    Erik Karlsson, 25:44, 20
    Ivan Provorov, 23:59, 20
    Rasmus Ristolainen, 24:02, 21
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson, 23:35, 21
    Victor Hedman, 23:00, 21
    Dion Phaneuf, 23:28, 21
    Alex Pietrangelo, 24:37, 21
    Roman Josi, 24:48, 22
    John Carlson, 23:22, 22
    Ryan McDonagh, 23:06, 22
    Ryan Whitney, 23:06, 22
    Duncan Keith, 25:00, 22
    Joni Pitkanen, 23:37, 22
    P.K. Subban, 24:05, 22
    Kris Letang, 23:58, 23
    Shea Weber, 24:06, 23
    Ryan Suter, 25:10, 23
    Alexander Edler, 23:02, 24
    John Klingberg, 23:09, 24
    Dennis Wideman, 23:05, 24

    The median age when these defensemen first hit 23 minutes is 22.

    Is that early? Not sure. Elite forwards show up in their teens, don’t they?

  169. Harpers Hair says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: Using 40+ points as a cut off level to determine when a player takes off as an impact D.

    Brent Burns – Played regularly but didn’t break out until D+5.Then slumped, and didn’t become a consistent impact player until D+8.Some seasons with SJS as a forward, but wasn’t traded until D+9.

    Victor Hedman – D+5

    Duncan Keith – Steady early results in 30-point range but took off in D+6

    Zdeno Chara – D+6

    Oliver Ekman-Larsson – D+5

    Erik Karlsson – D+3

    Roman Josi – D+6

    Shea Webber – D+5

    Ryan Suter – D+6

    Kris Letang – D+6

    There are plenty more, but I think I’ve made my point.I’ve actually pointed this out to you before, but you chose to not reply.

    You’re actually making my point perfectly by posting out what happed 10-20 years ago.

    2010 Draft

    Erik Gudbranson 2 games in the AHL

    Cam Fowler 40 points in rookie season.

    2011 Draft

    Adam Larsson 65 GP in rookie season

    Dougie Hamilton Straight to the NHL after junior career.

    Jonas Brodin Only 9 games in the AHL

    Oscar Klefbom half a season in the AHL

    Connor Murphy NHL regular at 21

    2012 Draft

    Ryan Murray NHL regular at 20 (impacted by injury)

    Morgan Reilly NHL regular at 20

    Hampus Lindholm NHL regular at 21

    Matt Dumba NHL regular at 22

    Jacob Trouba NHL regular at 20

    Olli Maata NHL regular at 19

    Brady Skjei NHL regular at 22 (NCCA is always longer)

    Colton Parayko NHL regular at 22 (NCAA)

    Jacob Slavin NHL regular at 22 (NCAA)

    2013 Draft

    Seth Jones BOOM

    Darnell Nurse Hokey Pokey

    Rasmus Ristolainen NHL regular at 20

    Josh Morrisey NHL regular at 21

    Nikita Zadarov NHL regular at 19

    Shea Theodore NHL regular at 22

    Brett Pesce NHL regular at 21 (NCAA)

    Drawing a line at 40 points is very arbitrary since it has no regard for role or usage.

    For example, Victor Hedman was an NHL regular and an impact player at 19.

    And, as you can see above, good to great D are showing up at an early age and the trend is accelerating.

  170. Ribs says:

    leadfarmer: This blog 12 years ago was filled with barely clothed women.
    Now not so much.
    Times change, people’s opinions change

    Strangely enough, my opinion on barely clothed women remains relatively unchanged!

    I wonder what the last straw was for LT to stop posting the ladies photos. Mrs. Lowetide get wind of it? His kids? Copyright issues? Was he receiving disturbing emails demanding more Brigitte Bardot photos? Or was this something nagging away at LT’s conscience until he finally gave it the boots? I guess we’ll never know. Oh wait, he’s still around! Maybe he will enlighten us!

    It certainly classes up the place a bit and helps hide the fact that we are mostly a bunch of degenerates!

  171. Harpers Hair says:

    Georges: Here’s one take.

    I think the best way to evaluate how well a defenseman does his job is to keep track of how long his HC asks him to do it. Impact defensemen are distinguished by their relatively high TOI. They’re the “go to” for their HC. Different HC’s have different sets of options. They may play a defenseman more than they should because they don’t like their other options. So TOI can be deceptive. Maybe if we can find some threshold to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

    Here’s a quote from a helpful article penned by Kevin Shattenkirk:

    https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/elite-defensemen-101-kevin-shattenkirk-nhl

    He’s talking about Ryan Suter:

    “Cerebral. You have to recognize him as one of the smartest defensemen in the league. Suter is probably the player most similar to Nick Lidström that we have in the game today. To have the stamina to play 29 minutes a game in the NHL is ridiculous. If you think about it, that means he’s out there every other shift. Personally, my minutes have gone up this year from 20 to 22, and even that little difference is noticeable. I definitely feel it after games. Adding another seven minutes onto that is almost unthinkable.”

    Shattenkirk said 22 minutes is a test of his stamina. I’m going to try a little higher than that: 23 minutes. I’m going to guess that it’s very hard for HC’s to push defensemen above that threshold unless the defensemen can actually and consistently perform at that threshold.

    In 2019-20, just 33 out of 303 defensemen who played in the NHL managed to average 23 minutes. Around 1 per team but not distributed evenly across teams. And around 1 in 10 defensemen who played in the season. If you look at career averages and include seasons from 2000-01 to 19-20, there have been only 52 defensemen who averaged 23 minutes or more. Out of 1136 defensemen who’ve played over that time. Roughly 1 in 20.

    So, by this approach, an impact defenseman is in the 95th percentile on career TOI/GP. He’s a defenseman who averages 23 minutes or more for his career. And he arrives as an impact defenseman in the first year he averages 23 minutes.

    Let’s see how many defensemen drafted 2000 or later fit this criteria and let’s also list their age when they first hit the 23 minute mark:

    Player, Career TOI/GP, Age of first 23-minute season

    Miro Heiskanen, 23:24, 19
    Drew Doughty, 26:15, 19
    Jay Bouwmeester, 24:07, 20
    Erik Karlsson, 25:44, 20
    Ivan Provorov, 23:59, 20
    Rasmus Ristolainen, 24:02, 21
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson, 23:35, 21
    Victor Hedman, 23:00, 21
    Dion Phaneuf, 23:28, 21
    Alex Pietrangelo, 24:37, 21
    Roman Josi, 24:48, 22
    John Carlson, 23:22, 22
    Ryan McDonagh, 23:06, 22
    Ryan Whitney, 23:06, 22
    Duncan Keith, 25:00, 22
    Joni Pitkanen, 23:37, 22
    P.K. Subban, 24:05, 22
    Kris Letang, 23:58, 23
    Shea Weber, 24:06, 23
    Ryan Suter, 25:10, 23
    Alexander Edler, 23:02, 24
    John Klingberg, 23:09, 24
    Dennis Wideman, 23:05, 24

    The median age when these defensemen first hit 23 minutes is 22.

    Is that early? Not sure. Elite forwards show up in their teens, don’t they?

    Raw TOI is a very blunt instrument in that it ignores team construction.

    For example….

    The Canucks D TOI leader this season was Edler at at 22:27.

    Hughes was second at 21:53

    In Colorado…Sam Girard was first at 21:19…Erik Johnson at 21:03 and Cale Makar at 21:01

    A well balanced D will punish players without that context.

  172. jp says:

    Georges: You had this from earlier:

    “… Willis did a great job of showing that forwards are more predictable draft picks than defensemen, and goalies are the least predictable. Whatever Holland does or believes, we no longer need to *think* there’s more certainty with a skater/offensive forward. Willis (I believe) proved it.”

    I’m curious. What did Willis prove?

    I know defensemen are over represented in the draft overall while forwards are over represented in the first round. By over represented I mean that teams tend to pick a greater share of certain positions than that position’s representation in a nightly roster.

    By their over representation alone, defensemen draft picks should have a lower success rate than forward draft picks. Goalies make up about 10% of draft picks and they make up 10% of the nightly roster so they should have an average success rate. Forwards are overall more successful as draft picks because teams tend to over select defensemen in the draft.

    At least I think that’s how it works…

    First, I’ll say that I was a bit rushed earlier writing that post and would rather have used a word other than “proved”. Both because he showed/suggested something rather than proved it, and also because he’s probably not the first to actually show/suggest it.

    In terms of your take, Willis didn’t look at percentage of F/D/G draft picks that became NHL players, he looked at where the players who populate the various F/D/G spots in NHL lineups were selected.

    I believe he showed fairly convincingly that NHL teams have the ability to identify quality forwards better than defensemen better than goalies. At the draft, teams use their top picks to select the players they believe will have the greatest impact as NHLers. As you noted teams pick more defensemen than they “should” based on the number of final roster spots defensemen occupy. (6D vs 12F). Despite picking more defensemen than they should, NHL teams only identified 61% of #1D in the first round of NHL drafts compared to 84% of #1Fs. Teams trying to identify future best players did a better job of identifying the best Fs compared to the best D.

    You can follow those trends down the lineup or to higher draft numbers/spots in Willis’ charts but they support the same conclusion. As another for instance, 47% of all NHL forwards were picked in the first round vs 39% of D, despite D being more over-represented as draft picks than forwards.

    11% of NHL D were never drafted compared to 10% of NHL Fs. I don’t imagine that 1% difference is significant but more undrafted D being NHLers would also support the “good forwards are easier to identify than good defensemen” argument. I bring this up only because it’s relevant to goalies, I think.

    Goalies ARE very under-represented as 1st and 2nd round draft picks compared to the lineup spots they occupy, so we should rightly expect fewer actual #1 and #2 goalies to have been picked in the first and second round compared to forwards and defensemen. NHL teams do draft lots of goalies later though, to the point that G draft picks are more over-represented overall (14% more) than D (10%) or Fs (-7%) (the percentages don’t add to 0 because the numbers aren’t equal in each group).

    Even though NHL teams pick 14% more goalies than they “should” (presumably the ones they think have the best chance of being good NHLers), 15% of NHL goalies were never drafted (compared to 11% of D and 10% of Fs).

    The goalie part is the weakest, though I think ease of identifying F>D>G is still supported. Goalies aside, I believe the numbers are quite convincing that future good forwards are easier to identify than future good defensemen.

  173. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    And, as you can see above, good to great D are showing up at an early age and the trend is accelerating.

    I guess you’ve decided to completely ignore my post above?

    Defensemen drafted in the top 10 between 2012 and 2016 became NHL regulars on average in draft +2.1.

    Defensemen drafted in the top 10 between 1992 and 1996 became NHL regulars on average in draft +1.6.

    Nothing is accelerating.

  174. jp says:

    Ribs: Strangely enough, my opinion on barely clothed women remains relatively unchanged!

    I wonder what the last straw was for LT to stop posting the ladies photos. Mrs. Lowetide get wind of it? His kids? Copyright issues? Was he receiving disturbing emails demanding more Brigitte Bardot photos? Or was this something nagging away at LT’s conscience until he finally gave it the boots? I guess we’ll never know. Oh wait, he’s still around! Maybe he will enlighten us!

    It certainly classes up the place a bit and helps hide the fact that we are mostly a bunch of degenerates!

    My opinion has also remained consistent.

    About the change, LT can correct me but IIRC a person or 2 (or possibly more?) mentioned to him the pictures of said women weren’t necessarily agreeable to everyone. He chose to respect the opinions of those people and stopped including the pictures as part of the posts.

    Kinda the whole damn point. Respect for people and the other things that flow from it.

  175. Georges says:

    jp,

    Good stuff. Tomorrow.

  176. Georges says:

    Harpers Hair: Raw TOI is a very blunt instrument in that it ignores team construction.

    For example….

    The Canucks D TOI leader this season was Edler at at 22:27.

    Hughes was second at 21:53

    In Colorado…Sam Girard was first at 21:19…Erik Johnson at 21:03 and Cale Makar at 21:01

    A well balanced D will punish players without that context.

    It’s hard to impact play when you’re not on the ice.

    I think it’s more let the big dogs eat. If young Hughes and Makar could’ve handled more minutes this season, what possible reason could their HC’s have to not give them those minutes?

    I’m not sure it’s a stretch to say that elite defensemen play very large minutes because of their superior skills and stamina, both physical and mental. All 8 of the defensemen Shattenkirk identified as elite in his two articles are on the list.

    It’s very early for Hughes and Makar. They definitely made noise. Both impressive talents. And as impressive as their talent is, I don’t think they were blocked from hitting elite TOI numbers by Johnson and a 33 year-old Edler. I think it’s more what Shattenkirk said. It’s very, very hard to play those additional minutes and still maintain an elite level of play.

  177. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Thanks to everyone for the interesting comments and analysis! tonight!

    Congrats to Trevor457! Welcome to the ‘hood!

    ——————————————————–

    A really cool thing happened today that I want to share. I didn’t plan for this to happen, but I’ve been stuck in a small MB city for a couple of weeks working remotely. It sucks primarily because my actual human interactions are very few and far between. Anyway, I am extremely fortunate to still have a job and I am very grateful. I went for a long walk this evening and saw several turkey vultures circling in the distance, so I decided to track them.

    Ten minutes later I find 15 of them perched very high on a large power transmission tower. I lived near Wainwright for 5 years, over 10 yrs ago and caught a few glimpses of this bird, but was never able to spot more than 2 or 3 at a time high up in the air and never spotted any on a perch. I remember reading in an old “Birds of Alberta” book as a teen and I was stunned to learn that AB had a population of 50 in the 80’s So when I noticed them near Wainwright I thought it was so cool. Tonight was beyond amazing to me.

    Here’s to beautiful and unexpected surprises!

    Good night all!

  178. Ribs says:

    jp: My opinion has also remained consistent.

    About the change, LT can correct me but IIRC a person or 2 (or possibly more?) mentioned to him the pictures of said women weren’t necessarily agreeable to everyone. He chose to respect the opinions of those people and stopped including the pictures as part of the posts.

    Kinda the whole damn point. Respect for people and the other things that flow from it.

    Ties things up rather nicely! Well done!

  179. ArmchairGM says:

    Georges:
    This gives us 4 categories:

    A >= 20 minutes and >= 0.35 Pts/GP (top tier)
    B >= 20 minutes and < 0.35 Pts/GP (defensive stalwarts)
    C = 0.35 Pts/GP (offensive specialists)
    D < 20 minutes and < 0.35 Pts/GP (the rest)

    Here are the counts of defensemen in each category drafted in 2010 or later AND who've played at least 20 games in the NHL:

    A 29
    B 10
    C 13
    D 127

    I’d suggest that you broaden your range a bit. This study used 18:30 as a cutoff which gives you a much larger sample size.

    https://www.coppernblue.com/platform/amp/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round

  180. Lowetide says:

    jp: First, I’ll say that I was a bit rushed earlier writing that post and would rather have used a word other than “proved”.

    I’ve been writing this blog daily for 17 years. The amount of maturity that it takes to type a sentence like this could have saved hundreds of hours of arguing if it had been used more often. I tip my hat. Sometimes we use a word that the group interprets as stronger than the author was aiming for, so a valuable lesson for those moments and I thank you.

  181. SwedishPoster says:

    Harpers Hair: This has already been attempted in certain ways in Sweden.

    It has become a dystopian shit hole.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-blast/sweden-suffers-surge-in-bomb-attacks-as-gang-violence-rises-idUSKBN1ZF1PD

    I prefer to stay far away from politics on a hockey blog and I’ll keep doing that but seriously man don’t make comments on things you clearly know fuck all about. It’s crazy arrogant.

  182. ristojalo says:

    SwedishPoster: I prefer to stay far away from politics on a hockey blog and I’ll keep doing that but seriously man don’t make comments on things you clearly know fuck all about. It’s crazy arrogant.

    He read an article and now is an expert, as it always was …

  183. OriginalPouzar says:

    Listening to Servavelli this morning and, while we know that Phase 2 starts on Monday and teams can open up their facilities for the small group skates, Frank said that not all facilities may open.

    He mentioned, for example, Montreal – while there are quite a few NHL players in the city, only 1 or 2 actual Hab players and, given the cost (cleaning, putting in ice, having someone there to take temperatures, etc.), they may not open.

    I would almost think the NHL will mandate the 31 cities to open – I mean, taking Frank’s example, there will be Hab player in other NHL cities that would get the benefit of their ice, no?

  184. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: I don’t know if you realize
    But Joe Biden is the presidential nominee because of the African American population.

    … thus guaranteeing that nothing actually changes.

  185. defmn says:

    SwedishPoster: I prefer to stay far away from politics on a hockey blog and I’ll keep doing that but seriously man don’t make comments on things you clearly know fuck all about. It’s crazy arrogant.

    I also prefer to stay away from the political discussions here but do you mind explaining your comment. The link to the story is not an unusual characterization of what we are told is happening in Sweden these days and the story does support an interpretation close to HH’s hyperbolic characterization.

    Of course the MSM has lost pretty much all of its credibility so I was wondering if you would mind offering a more nuanced perspective.

    Thanks.

  186. defmn says:

    ArmchairGM: … thus guaranteeing that nothing actually changes.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1268576616478801920

  187. N64 says:

    defmn: I also prefer to stay away from the political discussions here but do you mind explaining your comment. The link to the story is not an unusual characterization of what we are told is happening in Sweden these days and the story does support an interpretation close to HH’s hyperbolic characterization.

    Of course the MSM has lost pretty much all of its credibility so I was wondering if you would mind offering a more nuanced perspective.

    Thanks.

    The response was likely to the comment.

    US reports 251 bombings in 2019. That link cites 257 in Sweden. Much smaller population but numbers likely aren’t apples to apples.

    https://www.atf.gov/file/143481/download

  188. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn: https://twitter.com/i/status/1268576616478801920

    I don’t twit, you’ll have to transcribe it for me.

  189. defmn says:

    ArmchairGM: I don’t twit, you’ll have to transcribe it for me.

    It’s a video of a black man going through all the cities that have been run by Democrats since forever – at least 30 – 40 years and how things have just gotten worse and worse in those cities as the Democrats just assume they will get the “Black vote” because they always do and that maybe it is time to stop listening to the narrative and look at the reality and try something different.

  190. defmn says:

    N64: The response was likely to the comment.

    US reports 251 bombings in 2019. That link cites 257 in Sweden. Much smaller population but numbers likely aren’t apples to apples.

    https://www.atf.gov/file/143481/download

    That was my suspicion but wanted to confirm. I know that HH loves to push buttons and hyperbole is his friend in many of his posts 😉 but I have seen a lot of stories about the deteriorating situation in Sweden’s cities over the last few years so was wondering how much is true.

    My in-laws are in Belgium (primarily) and the things they think about America would make you laugh out loud but that is what they read in their papers and see on TV.

    I’m so old I can remember when the media kinda, sorta tried to get it right even if they rarely did. Not sure they even try anymore.

  191. N64 says:

    defmn: It’s a video of a black man going through all the cities that have been run by Democrats since forever – at least 30 – 40 years and how things have just gotten worse and worse in those cities as the Democrats just assume they will get the “Black vote” because they always do and that maybe it is time to stop listening to the narrative and look at the reality and try something different.

    At this point in time the black vote appears to be the most grounded part of that party. I’d rather pols listen to their ideas on what is needed 10 times out of 10. White activists, meh.

    https://blockclubchicago.org/2020/06/04/grocery-store-that-solved-south-shores-food-desert-problem-reopens-after-neighbors-clean-up-from-looting/

  192. leadfarmer says:

    Ribs: Strangely enough, my opinion on barely clothed women remains relatively unchanged!

    I wonder what the last straw was for LT to stop posting the ladies photos. Mrs. Lowetide get wind of it? His kids? Copyright issues? Was he receiving disturbing emails demanding more Brigitte Bardot photos? Or was this something nagging away at LT’s conscience until he finally gave it the boots? I guess we’ll never know. Oh wait, he’s still around! Maybe he will enlighten us!

    It certainly classes up the place a bit and helps hide the fact that we are mostly a bunch of degenerates!

    I dont know. Some people wanted those pictures completely gone. Some, myself included wanted a picture less version of the site available because I was sick of explaining to people at work that I’m not looking at lingerie models.
    “I SWEAR ITS JUST A HOCKEY BLOG”

  193. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn: It’s a video of a black man going through all the cities that have been run by Democrats since forever – at least 30 – 40 years and how things have just gotten worse and worse in those cities as the Democrats just assume they will get the “Black vote” because they always do and that maybe it is time to stop listening to the narrative and look at the reality and try something different.

    Oh, thanks.

  194. London Jon says:

    Harpers Hair: This has already been attempted in certain ways in Sweden.

    It has become a dystopian shit hole.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sweden-blast/sweden-suffers-surge-in-bomb-attacks-as-gang-violence-rises-idUSKBN1ZF1PD

    Sweden is pretty much the exact opposite of a ‘dystopian shit hole’

  195. Ribs says:

    leadfarmer: I dont know.Some people wanted those pictures completely gone.Some, myself included wanted a picture less version of the site available because I was sick of explaining to people at work that I’m not looking at lingerie models.
    “I SWEAR ITS JUST A HOCKEY BLOG”

    That is pretty funny, haha. I can see how that could be problematic for a lot of people.

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