If we were tasked with identifying this year’s Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and Kailer Yamamoto, who would they be? If the definition of the players was “most likely to play a feature role or perform well enough as a depth player to project into a more substantial job moving forward” who in the system would you name?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s second Oilers draft should deliver high-octane offence
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It’s all surreal’: Kevin Lowe’s Hall of Fame nod nets surprise and satisfaction
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Thomas Drance: Vancouver vs. Edmonton: How do Western Canada’s NHL hub city bids stack up?
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: I nominated Kevin Lowe for The Athletic’s mock Hockey Hall of Fame — and he fell way short
- Lowetide: 10 things to look for at Oilers training camp and the 2020 playoffs
- Lowetide: Oilers’ July 2015 orientation camp produced a watershed of NHL talent
- Lowetide: Do Oilers fans expect feature minutes from Tyler Ennis on top line?
- Lowetide: Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and the Oilers’ need for veteran insurance
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why the Oilers should protect these 8 skaters in the Seattle expansion draft
- Jonathan Willis: Why Carl Soderberg is an intriguing free agent possibility for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie’s possible impact in his first year pro
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The good, bad and ugly of the Oilers’ last 15 years of free agent signings
- Lowetide: Why you should be worried about William Lagesson’s future in Edmonton
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Remembering the goal that made Fernando Pisani a cult hero in Edmonton
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2016 draft remains an enigma, with a glimmer of hope
- Jonathan Willis: The parallels from the fall of Alexander the Great and the 2006 Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s recovery is just one of 2020’s incredible Masterton stories
- Lowetide: Every prospect in the Oilers system and what’s next for each player
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Projecting the Oilers’ black aces and how much they’ll play
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ lineup for their play-in series versus the Blackhawks
THE CANDIDATES
LW Tyler Benson. He’s going to get a chance this season, may not be opening night. It’s clear Marody was very helpful offensively during Benson’s rookie year, and I think we can assume Benson will begin his career in the bottom-six (and might stay there). He will be a value deal next season, that’s a key to his being on the roster.
RHD Evan Bouchard. The positives (great passing, vision, he’s a savant getting the puck to the net on the power play) outweigh the downside (average NHL skater). He improved a great deal defensively during the season and is NHL-ready. We don’t know if he’s Ken Holland NHL-ready, or if the Oilers are being overly cautious with a prospect. In fairness to us, it’s been a long time since Edmonton has been accused of it.
LD William Lagesson. He’s an effective defenseman and has proven it over more than one season. He doesn’t look like a successful NHL defenseman when he skates and he doesn’t outlet pass brilliantly, but he gets the job done. I think he’s wildly underrated by Oilers fans.
RC Cooper Marody. He has a lot of what Edmonton needs, he’s a righty center with passing skill and creativity. He isn’t a burner but I remember him as being a capable skater. Marody’s injury during the 2019 playoffs began a downbeat 12 months and it’s anyone’s guess what he’ll be next season.
LC Ryan McLeod. He’s an absolute bullet, but scoring is going to be an issue, or at least that’s the suspicion. I thought he posted better than expected numbers, and wonder if he’ll be a strong contender for a center job during training camp 2020.
PROSPECT TRACKING
I don’t publish these anymore, but still run them as a way to check progress. Since I’m emptying the chamber this summer as we await games or the draft, thought I would post it. It’s a way to establish the point where players have trade value (Oilers could get now a significant return for Caleb Jones, as an example) and to identify a stall (Paigin) or a truly meandering career that deserves monitoring (Svoboda). Let’s do 2019.
This is actually a fantastic set of levels for draft plus one. Broberg and Konovalov are in good leagues playing a lot, the goalie has been the top option for two years now. Lavoie is about to make a major transition, the Year 2 slot will be more important for him than anyone on the list. Blumel, Mazura and Denezhkin are also in photo at this time, we wait for a spike.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, it’s a big day for the Lowdown. Brilliant NHL player and HHOFer Paul Coffey joins the show to talk about Kevin Lowe getting the call yesterday. Matthew Trueblood from Baseball Prospectus will tell us about the MLB season to come and the Covid-19 positives. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
There are 82.4 Million reasons Canada won’t get both sites.
Bettman has been thrilled to be included in those resuming sports calls with NFL, NBA, MLB and the Incumbent.
Bettman would not be thrilled to have those 82.4 million twitter followers read how SAD it is that the NHL is turning its back on them.
I don’t know. Something back or a pick/player attached going out should make it possible. I don’t see why we should nix any thought of a team without Russell because it may be difficult to find a team to take him (that he also will go to).
A Neal buyout also opens the same amount of cash FWIW.
Is a clean disposition of Russell realistic though? I would think we should expect something coming back.
Certainly possible.
Costs in Canada are lower.
Perception for health priority better in Canada (outside-bubble covid matters).
Today was supposed to be the draft but it will be lottery Part 1 (or 1 or 2).
I think about a 55-60% chance a placeholder wins one of the three and I would love that.
———————
Also, decent chance the hub cities will be announced if the players and the league can finalize (subject to official vote of Return to Play logistics).
Big day!
Bold prediction : Toronto & Edmonton will be hubs.
I have no idea. I didn’t mention Soderberg. Just that there is enough budget to go shopping for a 3C if Russell can be moved and JP’s signing numbers are accurate or close – which I think they are.
My own preference would be to pursue a younger option but we all know the cap is going to play a huge role in every decision every team has to make this off season.
Until we get some clarity on the CBA negotiations going on regarding the cap and escrow etc. all predictions come with a big dose of conjecture I would think.
Broberg will be landing in Edmonton on Sunday or Monday and will then quarantine (as per Nugent-Bowman via Holland).
$3M would be more than 25% actually, he makes $4.75M right now.
You didn’t ask, but I do think it’s possible/likely given the flat cap and that he’ll turn 35 in October.
Yes, I think the soon to be 35 year old will be signing for less than $4.75M (and his $4M takehome this past year).
Do you think it’s likely Soderberg takes a 25% haircut on his next contract?
Smith accumulated $500K of bonuses for 35 games.
He would get $250K for each of 40 and 45 games. Given he’s at 39 games, I’ve got to imagine the league awards him at least $250K and maybe even $500K (or somewhere in between) – plus potential playoff game bonuses.
I was pretty sure it was all from the tweet but wanted to confirm. I don’t know much about the draft prospects either but those are definitely interesting takes.
That’s how I read it. Just to be clear I don’t know enough about any of these guys to have an opinion of my own on them. The whole thing was from the tweet.
Yup. Doable. Maybe bonus discrepancy in our numbers.
Some excerpts from Friedman’s piece – hope its not too much but the information is important.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-nhlpa-talks-cba-include-escrow-cap-salary-deferral-players/
According to multiple sources, the potential agreement between the NHL and NHLPA caps escrow at 20 per cent for the 2020-21 season. Original guesstimates were escrow at 35 per cent if this year did not finish, 27-28 even if it did.
But there is a second layer: a one-season-only 10 per cent salary deferral by every player. I’m told this is not a rollback. Players will be returned that money in the future. The benefit to them is the escrow on it would be lower.
As part of the agreement, the salary cap will be kept close to the current $81.5 million for the next three seasons.
There is potential for it to go up $1 million in 2022-23.
But, over the past few weeks, there have been several emotional calls amongst NHLPA membership. It’s not easy, with so much unknown about the lasting effects of COVID-19. (The NHL and NHLPA are working on “opt-out” language for those who don’t want to play.) One team was leaning against returning until a passionate speech from one of its most respected players turned the tide. Several players (and some agents) have said they will never have more leverage than now, and should wield it.
“I would tell you that I probably wouldn’t be comfortable voting at this particular time,” Carey Price told Montreal reporters on Thursday. “There’s still a lot of questions that need to be answered…The NHL and the NHLPA are trying to make the best of a very difficult situation. So, moving forward – and I’d like to play – we have a lot of questions that need to be answered and a lot of scenarios that need to be covered before I vote yea or nay.”
Ya, I saw that.
SPR has a pretty darn good eye on these things, from what I’ve seen over the last few years – in particular the OHL but it seems to go farther than that.
Just to be 100% clear, Bourque/Perreault/Holloway is part of the tweet as well?
Ryan doesn’t like a lot of LTs favourites it seems.
Iain MacIntyre (@imacSportsnet) Tweeted:
Dr. Bonnie Henry on NHL looking elsewhere for hub city: “We are doing very well. We have a good balance. But under no circumstances was I going to compromise in any way the health of people here in British Columbia, and we made that very clear.”
Yes definitely a possibility/likelihood.
That extra $1.5M of cap would definitely come in handy. A Neal buyout is still a possibility too (it’s a lot of money to carry for 6 years, but well.. $5.75M is a LOT to carry for the next 3…).
Hmmm. I used Capfriendly/Armchair GM and got 790k left over after signing Soderberg to $3M (on an $81.5M cap). That would be ~$77,700,000 spent without 3C, and not including your $1M bonus overage.
Not sure the difference but in either case Holland’s main task (in our opinion!) is doable.
Nice post btw.
Has there been any word on Jurco re: the playoff roster? Beyond fan speculation I mean?
It would be great if he’s healthy and included on the roster. I’d definitely welcome him back next season as a tweener/depth option as well.
I to say Cooper if healthy surprises many folks I’m unsure of his face-off percentage if it’s over 50 it will be very important skill needed at various times. it’s a make or break year in my opinion for the kid to get established. I might be in left field but what minimal viewing I’ve seen of Broberg when he puts his mind to it and rushes the puck up the ice is he reminds me of The Big Bird Larry in his rookie year raw as hell arms frailing in all directions but speed and skill coming out his ass. I can’t wait to see what the D-man whisper Manson can do with this kid.
A little draft conversation on twitter between Staples and Sean Ryan.
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David Staples
@dstaples
Who are the top ranked players this year you would stay away from? @TheOilKnight
Sean Patrick Ryan
Ice hockey stick and puck
Shamrock
@TheOilKnight
·
10m
Replying to
@dstaples
Some of that depends on who’s still on the board but,
I would not draft:
Perfetti Top 10
Gunler Top 20
Lundell in Top 31
Poirier in Top 62
Mavrik Bourque & Jacob Perreault make me nervous. Dylan Holloway is a complete wildcard for me too.
Solid – don’t forget, we may have a bonus overage penalty to take in to account.
Can’t imagine they will be provided for.
Vancouver is out.
The BC health authorities and the league have a “difference in opinion” on the level of positive tests that would require a pause/shutdown – from accounts.
On Marody – from the player himself, he’s finally 100%. Unfortunately, I’m not so confident he’ll check off box 2. Coming in to camp last year, he was express that he didn’t overtly work on his skating as, while he knows its not his strong point, its “never held him back”. I don’t have the feeling his attitude has changed on the matter.
I know he’s been working on lots of music, as he posts about it all the time. I don’t know if he’s been working on his skating because, well, he doesn’t post about it.
Here is hoping I’m wrong.
———-
On Broberg, i don’t imagine, no matter how he looks in practice, that he’ll get a niff of a game – I mean, if Playfair/Tip decide they need to put in their 6LD/11D, well, I just can’t see it.
Using your lineup and signing prognostications the cap hit without a 3C would come in at $76,909,498.
That leaves room for a 3C and some wiggle room in helping to move Russell if necessary so very doable.
EDIT: This includes an estimated $1M overage payment for bonuses this year.
Bear showed promise in that year but showed that he needed considerable more time – he got that time, changes his priorities and developed massively in that period – what a great story.
Marody is a solid choice – from his own accounts, he is finally feeling 100% health – I don’t think he was right at any point last season. Big bounce back season is required by the player to put himself back on the map.
I would throw Kuffner in there as a dark-horse – hopefully he sees this as a “fresh start” to his pro career and can get back some of that goal-scoring swagger he had at Princeton.
Jesse, of course, if he’s in the damn league. Interesting that he hasn’t spoken to Karpat regarding a contract. It could be see as an intent to come back to the NHL or it could be seen as an interest in the KHL which has teams courting him. Of course, a KHL signing would preclude him coming back to the NHL. Best case scenario is to re-sign in Karpat, get playing in the fall and then come on over when training camp starts (with his QO signed and contract in hand).
Amazing to think that he just turned 19 – not 20, 19.
Ethan Bear……..
Ideally Rusty is dealt and Lagesson is on the roster as 4LD/7D with Bouchard in the Bake waiting for the call-up. I believe he will prove to be an every day 3LD if given that chance and, well, injuries happen and he will get that chance (and there will be no Manning to block him).
I would be hesitant to expose him to waivers but lets not forget there are very good names that clear waivers on the eve of the season each and every year – recall the names that weren’t claimed last season.
I would anticipate Willie would clear (although would be very nervous).
I agree that he very well might be brought back but I can’t agree that injuries were the only reason he didn’t work out.
He was assigned to the AHL when the injuries hit – he was playing well down there and may have earned a re-call if he stayed healthy but the re-assignment pre-dated the injuries.
He’s got top 6 skill level but there is something that holds him back – he’s pushing 30 and hasn’t been able to hold an NHL position despite being skilled.
I think he is healthy now and will be on the Oilers post-season roster.
Capping percent of contracts that can be paid via signing bonus and/or change the inability to buy out a signing bonus portion for savings.
I agree with most of this except for being in the NHL lineup next season.
He had a solid development season in his first year pro but may I ask what makes you think he’s ready for the NHL and 3C except for the fact that the Oilers have a hole at the position he is hoped to develop to fill?
He wasn’t even a full time 3C in the AHL – I’m not sure why we would expect him to fill that position at the NHL level.
For me, he needs to be a full-time center in the AHL, not just a 3C in the AHL but a top 6 AHL center before there is a realistic chance he could be ready for 3C at the NHL level.
I support this comment,
Time to rename the grandstand:
‘The Klopp’
An extra $1.5M would go a long way for sure.
But if things break right a 3C could be added with just a Russell trade. Was just looking at this again this afternoon (below is with s $81.5M cap, so $83 would give more breathing room.
The IFs:
Bear bridge at $2.25M X 2
Green or Benning at $2M X 2
Athanasiou at $3M X 1
Lagesson as 7D at $800k
Puljujarvi for Georgiev
Georgiev as 1B goalie at $1.5M (it could be another G for that price)
The above, plus the guys already signed, leaves $3M to sign a 3C (Soderberg?) plus about $800k as a cushion. Again, this is with a $81.5M cap so $83 would leave a little more (maybe an Ennis signing?). Just an illustration of one plausible way this could work of course.
The team in the above scenario:
Athanasiou-McDavid-Kassian
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Neal-Soderberg-Chiasson
Nygard-Khaira-Archibald
Benson-Haas
Nurse-Bear
Klefbom-Larsson
Jones-Green (or Benning)
Lagesson (Bouchard may force something here too)
Koskinen-Georgiev
I’m not sure why we shouldn’t remain optimistic about adding a legit 3C this off season….
Expecting MGM and the CNE now.
Random comment: I support 2 sports teams in life. Liverpool just won the English title for the first time in 30 years (1989-90). Is it destiny that my other team also wins their corresponding title for the first time in 30 years!
Never would I have ever guessed that was the actual name of the arena if it wasn’t for OPs post below. Or it’s April Fools Day and I didn’t notice.
I’ve also heard nothing about CHAZ other than your posts..when Inhave to search it out….truly bizarre.
And those poor folks must be desperate for some income. Lots of support workers relying on those hotels that I expect will be easy to convince (completely aside from how exceptional the amenities/activities will be in the Vegas bubble).
I don’t think the AHL starts until the NHL starts – which I don’t think will happen until there are fans permitted in the stands.
Man it would truly be a shame if the AHL can’t go at all next season – McLeod, Lavoie, Maksimov, Kuffner, Niemelanan, etc. – they need to be playing.
A compliance buyout would do Ken Holland wonders
I think the preference at this point should be for Edmonton / Vancouver based on case count.
I imagine BC’s Health Ministry is being less flexible with things like quarantine timelines and the NHL is putting it out to the media to force them to compromise.
As per the Larry Brooks article above, the cap may come in around $83M for the next few years.
A bit higher than the “flat cap” speculated.
That extra $1.5M could go a long ways…..
There we go – confirmed the vote will be the entire player union (not just the execs and not just involving the 24 teams) and, importantly, will include CBA extension matters:
The full NHL Players Association membership will vote on a comprehensive Return to Play proposal that would include a collective bargaining agreement extension as well as coronavirus-related protocols for training camp (Phase 3) and the projected summer Stanley Cup tournament (Phase 4) once ongoing negotiations between the league and the union conclude.
https://nypost.com/2020/06/25/entire-union-will-vote-on-nhl-return-to-play-package-cba-extension/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons
Filling the 3C hole may very well be an issue but I wouldn’t imagine the scenario above plays out – just based off of regular development time for non elite prospects, Holland’s general course of developing prospects and, well, frankly, McLeod isn’t close to ready for a 3C position in the NHL.
Yes, he could “pop” I guess but he wasn’t even a full-time 3C at the AHL level – he’s a solid prospect and could very well be that 3C of the future – if developed properly – I don’t see Holland not marinating this guy – he’s only very lightly marinated as at mid-March.