Judd Brackett has reached a certain amount of fame (infamy?) due to his track record and recent success by the Vancouver Canucks draft picks. He lost a power struggle in Van and is off to Minnesota for the next one to 20 years. It is very difficult to value scouting directors unless they’re 1979-83 Barry Fraser or 1984-2000 Barry Fraser. Brackett is good. Did he do better than the Oilers 2016-2019? If so, by how much?
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s postseason strategy against the Blackhawks
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers notebook: Bear’s contract quandary, Broberg’s mini camp, bubble goalies
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s comparables suggest a possible future with Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect rated by how close they are to the NHL
- Lowetide: Setting the record straight on Oilers prospect Cooper Marody’s future
- Lowetide: Tough decisions face Oilers’ Ken Holland as cap forces painful choices
- Lowetide: How Oilers winger Kailer Yamamoto can increase his value
- Lowetide: Everything you forgot (but need to know) about Oilers’ 2019-20 season
- Lowetide: Injury is biggest factor in the Oilers’ hopes for extended playoff run
- Lowetide: Tyler Benson’s struggle to score might affect future role with Oilers
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s second Oilers draft should deliver high-octane offence
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It’s all surreal’: Kevin Lowe’s Hall of Fame nod nets surprise and satisfaction
- Lowetide: 10 things to look for at Oilers training camp and the 2020 playoffs
- Jonathan Willis: Why Carl Soderberg is an intriguing free agent possibility for the Oilers
BRACKETT CREEP
In his fascinating book THE ROAD TO HOCKEYTOWN, Jimmy Devellano talks about the goal of a scouting director and his staff:
‘We’re trying to determine if the player can get to the next level, that’s the real job. Most people can sit and watch a game and tell you who the best player on the ice is, but the good scout will be able to judge whether or not a player can go a step or two higher. We in the hockey business call it projecting.’
Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (1st round): All of Brackett’s first-round picks were top-10 overall selections. An NHL team needs to cash most or all of those picks, and the Canucks have procured exceptional (Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes) talent in two of those four seasons. Olli Juolevi is on track for a career if he can stay healthy, he had a good year in the AHL. The Russian from 2019 (Vasili Podkolzin) is too soon to know. Pettersson and Hughes make the four picks a ringing success in my opinion, Brackett’s strong work in the first round should be on display for the next decade. Brackett is also given credit often for Vancouver’s choosing Brock Boeser, another impressive youngster.
Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (2nd round): Kole Lind (2017) is through two AHL seasons and gaining traction as a middle-six winger option. I like him. Jonah Gadjovich (2017) is a prospect I liked a lot but he seems to have stalled. Jett Woo (2018) ran in place a little in his final junior season it’s uncertain to me where he’ll land in pros (offensive defenseman? Two-way type?). I’ll guess top four and suggest he’s lagging a little but no real reason to worry. Nils Hoglander (2019) has the look of a prospect who may not require an entire AHL season before being NHL ready. Undersized, I’ll suggest No. 2 LW outer marker.
Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (3rd round): William Lockwood (2016) is a bit of a tweener but could make the grade as a support player. Michael DiPietro (2017) had a good AHL season as a rookie pro, the last year and a half suggests to me that ‘No. 1 NHL starter’ is starting to look aggressive. Tyler Madden (2018) is the best prospect in the Vancouver system not chosen in the first round in the Brackett years.
Success in what Devellano calls “projecting”: Madden would be an example, Jack Rathbone (2017) is an intriguing prospect (good speed, earning more playing time in college each season) who could surprise.
Success in addressing team needs. Canucks were old and lacked high-end skill. Vancouver was drafting high, but when a scouting director answers the need for skill by delivering Pettersson and Hughes, he should be given credit. Good move by the Wild.
- Best first-round pick: (Tie) Pettersson, Hughes
- Worst first-round pick: Olli Juolevi (who may still work out)
- Best pick after the first round: Tyler Madden
GREEN ACRES
Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (1st round): Kailer Yamamoto in 2017 showed some innovation, a small winger with no fear and a great deal of skill. Excellent pick, especially considering where they got him. Evan Bouchard in 2018 (over Oliver Wahlstrom and Noah Dobson) looks poised to deliver substantial value. Philip Broberg is too soon to know, surprised at how many have already made the call. Great speed is useful on offense and defense. Jesse Puljujarvi was the right selection, no doubt in my mind. Still, it didn’t work as planned, and that will be the overriding story until JP has some NHL success, gets traded, or Bouchard emerges as a quality NHL player.
Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (2nd round): Tyler Benson is on the verge of his NHL career, I think a Marcus Kruger future is a reasonable projection for him. Ryan McLeod is also progressing as a bottom-six forward and shows promise. Olivier Rodrigue is one of the organization’s two best goalie prospects and coming off a season where he posted a .918SP in the diabolical QMJHL. You never know but he’s on the good side of the prospect list. Raphael Lavoie is the most recent selection and may be remembered as the best of the bunch. His outer marker is the most promising among the forwards in this group. None have succeeded all are on track.
Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (3rd round): Ilya Konovalov was an astute, I’ll say inspired choice, in its own way as innovative as Yamamoto in the first round. He’s close to NHL-ready, has two solid to excellent KHL seasons on his resume and his only crime is being a little smaller than ideal. Dmitri Samorukov looks like he’ll play a two-way role in the NHL if he continues to progress, Filip Berglund is developing into a two-way type who may find NHL employement ala Erik Gustafsson (with a little less offense). Stuart Skinner is matriculating but hasn’t shown NHL upside in two pro seasons. Matt Cairns doesn’t resemble a future NHL player at this time.
Success in what Devellano calls “projecting”: Samorukov would qualify in this category, Mike Kesselring and Maxim Denezhkin are two men I believe may cover this bet in the future.
Success in addressing team needs. If you include 2015, then Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones certainly qualify and Kailer Yamamoto is a direct hit in this category. Evan Bouchard will get there and qualify, possibly in the coming year. Kirill Maksimov is a candidate, he’ll need to have some success in 2020-21.
- Best first-round pick: Kailer Yamamoto
- Worst first-round pick: Jesse Puljujarvi
- Best pick after the first round: Ethan Bear
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, we kickstart the weekend with great guests, great talk and anticipating great news. TSN1260, we welcome Scott Powers from The Athletic to talk Chicago Blackhawks and the coming series with Edmonton. Matt Iwanyk will discuss the NHL’s returns and Edmonton’s best hotels at 11. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Ken Campbell with a Bad Hot Take, lol
https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/how-many-nhlers-will-opt-out-of-the-playoffs-try-zero
Family considerations. That’s how they got TH. So an extra reason to respect that.
~ Gary sent the Flames the template ~
“While we will miss ________ in our line-up, we understand and respect his decision. Our focus remains on preparation for training camp and our upcoming series in the NHL Qualifying Round”
I don’t think the ratification % will have anything to do with the opt out rate. I think guys will come for their teams and only opt out for strong personal reasons, not based on their vote.
I believe it is called narcissism. Some people can never be wrong.
I’d rather have Ivan Provorov, Seth Jones, and Miro Heiskenen than four of the names on your list. Maybe Werenski, too.
Well first he has to lose, which is a given based on his betting record.
Then he good griefs all day and night until he finds a flimsy excuse to back out of it.
Cheaper FAs are important too though.
Good teams get the luxury of decent players for really cheap sometimes, and having the top 2 scoring players in the league won’t hurt either.
A playoff run AND the top 2 scorers means a Joe Thornton or a Mark Recchi or a Brad Richards might be willing to sign for $1M. And even the guys who should be making $1M are more interested in a stint in Edmonton.
Being a place players want to go is good business, if you can pull it off.
Hamonic opts out.
Nope. We will be looking at a couple this off-season in fact.
Travis Hamonic has opted out…..
Congrats Bro!
Noone said that, of course:
Benson > Lind
Bouchad > Juolevi
This “conversation” started with you talking about Lind being a top 6 player and Juolevi as a propsect of interest – the Oilers comparables were used to show your absolute bias as between prospects on these two teams.
Aren’t FAs a thing of the past? Pain pain pain.
When you’re short a proper high end forward I think experience matters less than quality of team mate.
The statement was no “no sane coach would play his top offensive d-man on the PK” – something about saving him for the PP.
Objectively false.
Good Grief!!!
The top d-man on at least 10 teams.
Your statement is wrong – NHL coaches play their top offensive d-man on the PK routinely.
Scungilli Slushy,
Not me. I wouldn’t take that experience away from any of those fellas, they earned it. And they’ll need to rely on that experience for future runs. Not to mention it helps with FAs.
If the Good Team
Not the teams of those who come here, because their team’s blogs are boring and their teams inconsequential in the end,
can’t win the Cup, I hope they lose to Chicago.
Call it a 1 OV issue for me.
The higher the better to me if no Cup chance.
There can only be one.
Huge!
A superstar!
Klefbom???
Good grief.
Really?
Top 10 NHL defensemen.
Carlson
Josi
Hedman
DeAngelo
Hughes
Pietrangelo
Makar
Krug
Suter
Theodore
What won’t come.
Miller for Boeser. Fair enough I guess.
Not Rogaine Lampferrty.
That guy is going straight to the Hall.
Yes, his original statement was objectively false and I’m not sure why he’d doubling down on it when provided with the evidence.
Every d-man in the top 50 played over 2.5 min/game on the PP and there were at least 10 top d-men on there.
Your statement that no same d-man would play their top offensive d-man on the PP is simply not true, unless, well, most NHL coaches aren’t sane.
That’s not true. Looking at that list, most of the #1D played on the top 2 pk units. Josi 2:00/game, Petrangelo 1:50/game, Carlson 1;30/game, Hedman 2:22/game , Provarov 2:45/game, Doughty 2:07/game, Giordano 2:44/game, Klefbom 2:29/game, Jones 2:25/game. These are all significant pk minutes.
Yes, Benson was more productive as the main driver of offence on his team – Lind was zoomed by being on a offensive powerhouse and still couldn’t perform as well as Benson.
20 points in 24 games as a 20 year rookie playing top competition and being a plus player on a team with a major negative goal differential – yup, huge development.
Here are the a actual numbers of SH/TOI/G.
The only top defenseman who spent any significant time on the PK was Shea Weber.
http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?report=penaltykill&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20192020&seasonTo=20192020&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=shTimeOnIcePerGame&page=0&pageSize=50
I think we all know what would come next…
Another interesting note relevant to the Oilers.
So, we now know that the NHL says the play-in round stats will count as playoff stats and teams in the play-in round will deemed to have “made the playoffs”/”played a playoff series” but, for the purpose of performance bonuses based on making the playoffs, the team has to made the round of 16.
This could apply to Smith who has $750K worth of playoff bonuses.
You’re describing a sheltered offensive defenseman.
#1D play all situations. I think everyone agrees Hughes may develop into that but he’s not one right now.
Edler played more at evens and was the first PK option. Age is a bitch but if you’re telling me the Canucks won’t miss him… well I guess you maybe don’t actually follow the Canucks?
The Canucks could only afford Tofolli’s $4.6M after the deadline. They can’t fit $4.6M in. They pretty much need to choose between Tofolli and a starting goalie this off season.
Petterson, Hughes and Gaudette have more than $4.5M in performance bonuses. I’m not sure the details but I imagine the’ve hit quite a few of them, so the Canucks will have quite a significant bonus overage for next season (the next 2 I guess, since it can be spread out).
“I’d wager a pretty large sum than Podkolzin and Hoglander can provide more value than Sutter and Pearson”. You realize we’re talking about 2021-22, right? I’d wager a pretty large sum that both players aren’t NHL regulars in 2021-22…
Leivo is a UFA in a few months. If he wants more than $1.5M I don’t think he’ll be in the mix for the Canucks. Someone else’s witch/problem I expect.
Sure, everything is *great*.
So Benson outscored a bunch of fire hydrants while Lind was a complementary player on one of the highest scoring teams in the AHL.
Got it.
After Bouchard’ “explosive” season he must be ready to play a huge role in the playoffs.
Which RHD will he be replacing?
The link shows top offensive d-men playing material minutes on the PK something you indicated no sane coach would do.
One of those wild nightly statements.
Lind and Benson are 5 months apart in age:
– both were both 20 year old rookies in the AHL in 2018/19 when Lind had 17 points in 51 games and Benson 66 in 68
– Benson also had a higher PPG this past season than Lind – less overall points due to spending time in the NHL. Of course, Benson was 2nd in the team in scoring and Lind, 6th
There is no comparison between the AHL careers of those two players at this point.
————
Yup, it would seem Juolevi is dawdling in the AHL and is giving no indication of ceasing to dawdle. Bouchard is doing no such thing – he had an explosive development season in the AHL last year. Marked improvements in all facets of the game – potentially even succeeding the hopeful expectations of fans and management.
The reason Juolevi vs. Bouchard was brought up was simply to point out your biased assessment of prospects in these two organizations.
That link shows nothing and means even less.
Harpers Hair,
The Wild would be a good trade partner for Boeser. Benning taking draft ammo away from Brackett would be kind of funny also.
This happens routinely and consistently:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=pk&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=ALL&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
I don’t think they’re directly related…it may be more about cap space and getting a a first round pick.
Lots of speculation they’ll move him to Minnesota for a defenseman and a pick.
If he gets to go home to be close to family, that would be great for the player.
SwedishPoster,
Thank you very much for this.
Informative, as always.
Harpers Hair,
Hopefully the Boeser trade rumour leaking from Van today is not connected to this. That would be a bad look for the franchise as that is a completely understandable reason to opt out.
Yeah.
About 170 players voted no so it’ll be interesting to see how many of those opt out.
Word is Brock Boeser may be one of them due to the frail health of his father.
There is the potential for it to go up in year 3 but its revenue shortfall based and seems unlikely at this early stage.
In addition, a few other interesting tidbits from the article:
– while Dec 1 is the tentative start day, it will be a function of if fans are allowed and, if so, how many. Some owners would rather have a shortened season with (full) fans than to start without fans
– apparently quite a few players are considering opting out.
Yeah…they’ll have to make do with one of the top 20 forwards in the league rather than waiting for a player who might make a difference in 3-5 years.
Kole Lind was drafted a year after Benson and outscored him last season.
No one said Lind will be an “elite” winger and certainly no one would describe Benson that way.
Also, no one is drawing a comparison between Juolevi and BOUCHARD! except in the sense they’re both dawdling in the AHL.
Many, many pundits believe both Rafferty and Rathbone could step in to the bottom pairing next season.
Of course there is no guarantee that Rathbone will sign as both John Marino and Adam Fox who were Rathbones team mates at Harvard opted to wait and sign with teams of their choice.
However, with Ivy League games cancelled, Rathbones options are more limited.
The NHL has also made it official that the two conference finals and stanley cup finals will be played in Edmonton.
Good news. I am very pleased for the Dys to not have a 1st rounder in this very deep draft.
I believe the JT Miller draft pick heads out this season now:
Brennan Klak
@nhlupdate
According to the NHL, if you are playing in a qualifying series, you have officially “made the postseason”, which will in turn effect a few trades.
Good grief.
Edler played less than 50 seconds a game more than Hughes this season.
Why would any sane coach put their best offensive defenseman on the PK so he wasn’t fresh for the the PP?
Answer zero.
Edler will be 36 when his contract expires and you’re going to miss him?
Toffoli already makes $4.6 million so a new contract at $5 million doesn’t move the needle much at all.
I’d wager a pretty large sum than Podkolzin and Hoglander can provide more value than Sutter and Pearson and both will be on three year ELCs.
John Leivo is also in the winger mix and will be back for next season and is a possession witch at $1.5 million.
Coming off his kneecap injury, he won’t have any leverage but provides extreme value at a $1.5 million cap hit.
The Canucks are in tough next season but then the window starts to open.
If Cole Lind projects as a top 6 forward then Tyler Benson must project as an elite top winger.
The emergence of Zack McKewan in to what? A tweener/4th line player?
I’m not sure how the same person can, without extreme bias cite Juolevi is potential building block and constantly derogate the potential of the younger and better Evan Bouchard.
So now Rathborne and Rafferty are going to be pieces of next year’s defensive group – and that’s supposed to instill confidence in the on-ice success?
It’s the above type statements that all but prove the inability to have an actual conversation on these types of matters.
Full round 1 schedule:
https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1281728526006333441
Oilers/Hawks:
Aug 1, 3, 5, 7 (if necessary) and 8 (if necessary)