I know we understand the idea of sample sizes, we discuss them all the time. Sample size is a rational conversation, thrown out the window when your team loses a winnable playoff series. Now that we’re some distance from the Chicago series, it is my sincere hope we can get back on the rational road that leads to greater understanding. Won’t you join me?
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Lowetide: Lessons learned from the ghosts of Oilers’ draft weekends past
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ William Lagesson may benefit from extraordinary circumstances
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We’ll learn and grow from it’: Connor McDavid’s tune different compared to last year
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
- Lowetide: A rational approach for the Oilers at the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What’s holding back the Oilers? Superstars’ defence and team’s depth under focus
- Jonathan Willis: After a play-in round exit, the Oilers need an offseason of change
- Lowetide: Oilers 2020 picks finalized, it’s go time for Jesse Puljujarvi
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Edmonton again? How Oilers would benefit from No. 1 pick and Alexis Lafrenière
- Lowetide: Oilers’ guilty pleasure, the draft lottery, could offer a quick fix
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s urgent summer as Oilers general manager begins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have some disappointing lessons to learn — even in season of progress
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Replacing Tyler Ennis: Ranking the best left wing and backfill Oilers options
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Andreas Athanasiou gets a push against ‘Hawks. Is it enough?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Bang for your buck: Ranking the Oilers based on contract expectations
- Jonathan Willis: Is Philip Broberg on track to be a top-pairing defenceman?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options over the next five months
OILERS DEFENSE 2019-20
The key stat is time on ice. Klefbom-Larsson should be playing more than Nurse-Bear but the veterans (2011 drafts Klefbom and Larsson) were injured and faltered. The goal percentage for Nurse-Bear suggests backing off their nightly minutes, but the alternative is worse. The Swedes had a tough start to the season, Larsson via injury and recovering while on the job, Klefbom partly because he was playing big minutes with some less than able partners.
So, as I see it, there are two problems: The top pair blew a fuse and the second pair had to play above their established level. That’s a problem.
Now, let’s look at actual pairings for the final 30 games of the season (December 30-end of regular season).
So, in the final 30 games of the season, the top two pairings had a goal differential above 50 percent, Caleb Jones had some good results with Larsson (on what might have been third pair minutes for some games) and Nurse-Bear struggle with the minutes but look good in goal differential in these 30 games. All sent over the edge by four (really one) games against Chicago. Seriously?
GAME ONE
The game that dashed Edmonton’s hopes was the first one, here’s what I wrote about each pairing after the performance:
Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson played 12:00 five on five, 5-14 Corsi, 1-11 shots and 0-2 goals. Absolutely hammered by Chicago and were equally lost on the penalty kill. I expect much better, this was a baffling performance by the duo. If Tippett does change something up, a shuffle of the top two pairs might be it. Even giving Chicago credit, Klefbom and Larsson have to be more decisive with the puck and defend better.
Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 16:40 five on five 12-17 Corsi, 7-9 shots and 0-1 goals. Normally a strong pairing for the McDavid trio, these two struggled. I wonder if we see a shuffle. Like the top pair, need to be quicker.
Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 9:34 five on five, going 12-9 Corsi, 6-5 shots and 0-0 goals. I thought the duo played well, Russell even had a good look via a Leon touch pass. Benning is skating very well.
I think coach Dave Tippett might have shuffled the top two pairs and played the third pair more (all of these numbers are five on five). As it turned out, he did neither in Game 2 and the Oilers won the game.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have a lot to talk about and some of it is going to be painful. At 10:20 Thomas Drance from The Athletic joins us to talk Vancouver Canucks and the current series against the St. Louis Blues. At 10:40 Kyle Irving from NBA Canada talks Raptors begin the defense of their championship. At 11 Jason Gregor from TSN1260 pops in to talk CFL’s lost season and the NHL playoffs. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
How can suddenly risk-averse colleges ever play football again?
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/sports-columnists/story/2020-08-19/zeigler-college-football-covid-cte-myocarditis-pac-12-big-ten-conference-michael-ackerman-fall-sports
ArmchairGM,
Fair rebuttal. I didn’t do the appropriate checks on his numbers to ensure they were 3rd line. Most of his career has seen him playing on 2nd line since that was his role in Colorado, then. As such, he’s likely been playing harder minutes than what I’d be tasking him with under my alignment.
You say 48.4% as though it’s 42%. My threshold for required faceoff ability is evidently lower than yours ?
I feel the need to point out that at no point have I called him a strong C option so no need to get all “typical Oilers fan” with me. I’ve positioned him as an upgrade on Haas which one can fairly question whether 3.5mil is worth spending to simply upgrade that spot.
However, I stand by my point that replacing Sheahan and Haas with he and J Larsson is a substantial upgrade to our bottom-6 and isn’t cost prohibitive. For reference, Faksa is my ideal target for 3C; I just don’t think A Larsson gets us Faksa.
I’m old enough. There was certainly more fighting. And hooking and holding.
I don’t think it was any more dangerous. It was played at about half the speed of today’s game.
The trouble is you’re using tainted numbers. For instance, his most common linemate this year was John Tavares, while his 3rd most common linemate was William Nylander. So reading much into Kerfoot’s woodmoney’s isn’t useful because they aren’t a direct representation of him playing 3C at all, they are mixed-use results but mostly 2LW.
He’s 48.4% on the dot with a nearly 1400 faceoff sample size, I think it’s reasonable to say he’s not checking that box very well either. None of his NHL coaches has had him in for more than 6.3 draws per game, which ranks him 5th on his team every year. It’s so “prototypical Oilers fan” to see him as a strong center option when multiple NHL coaches do not.
NEW for The Athletic: Ken Holland’s honeymoon period with Oilers fans faces a challenge. Andreas Athanasiou’s asset cost and next contract have fans anticipating a downbeat deja vu. What is Holland’s best move? What will he do?
https://theathletic.com/2003023/2020/08/18/lowetide-ken-hollands-bet-on-andreas-athanasiou-and-how-oilers-will-proceed/
OriginalPouzar,
Glad I’m not alone ? Nothing about him speaks to a 6mil cap hit.
That’s more in line with what I was thinking.
Maybe a few years of term.
It locks the Oilers in to 4-4-1 though and they likely need to trade a leftie if Jones indeed does develop as hoped this coming season.
I’m not sure how Montour is worth $6M (while Nurse is lambasted for his up coming $5M plus).
Montrou is a 25-30 point d-man. He did play a strong 17 minutes per game at 5 on 5 – 30% against elites (which was the lowest of the three categories) with a negative relative number.
He was a depth PP guy and the 5th option on the PK (when Bogasanian was healthy).
He had negative possession numbers and relative numbers. He did have a positive GF% but it overshot his xGF% which was negative.
I like this player and my premise is to acquire him if he is unqualified on the cheap – it would be nowhere near $6M
Didn’t the Oilers do that with Kassian – granted not their high pick.
The Nuck fans are hating Virtanen these days and looking to move on from him generally as a fanbase.
Munny,
There must be something I missed because I’m not seeing anything about a 6mil demand. I’m seeing questions about how he has fit and, since they’ve already got 3 RD signed, that they may want to put the money they’d have to give him elsewhere.
As for your confidence that someone would give him 6mil, I don’t see any reason for any team to even remotely consider such. Can you share your thought process behind why you’re so confident he would get that?
My 4mil figure is based on what I think he’d be awarded on a 1-yr arbitration award. I don’t think 28 points in 74 games as a Sabre gets him anything more than 4 in arbitration.
Ya …the likes of gretzky , dionne lafleur were all hiking bruisers….sorry dude
Also a good reminder on not reacting too strongly to a 3 game sample size
The quickest and easiest thing to do is replace your WP files in the back end with your most recent backup.
Well if he would sign for 4, BUF would simply re-sign him. But he wants at least 6, and as an FA is going to get it.
I’m not sure Chiasser’s contract can be traded, and that leaves us with the onerous buyout of Neal and still short of the cap number..
I’ll start by saying I don’t think it’s a fascination so much as looking at the options available for a possible Larsson trade. Like it or not, Larsson’s value isn’t what it used to be and Kerfoot’s name comes up.
I’ll have to disagree with your characterization of Kerfoot here. By no means is he an elite defensive forward, but he’s completely serviceable in his own end. Since 2017-18 (2019-20 numbers in brackets):
relCA/60: -2.98 (-3.20)
relFA/60: -2.15 (-2.46)
relSA/60: -1.1 (-0.52)
relGA/60: +0.26 (+0.73)
relGF%: -2.09 (-2.13)
rel xGF: +2.10 (+1.01)
So a player whose process numbers exceed his results the past two years. One might be able to make a case for bad luck, but a trend has formed which is cause for some concern. However, his HD numbers don’t speak to a player that neglects defending the slot area.
relHDCA/60: -0.46 (-0.56)
relHDGA/60: -0.14 (+0.18)
relHDGF%: +5.51 (+3.35)
In his case, I’d have to defer judgement of his defensive efficacy to trained scouts. At the least he’s guy that keeps his minutes close and can pot some points at evens.. This past year, he saw pretty average deployment with just under 30% TOI Vs Elites and 47.6% off. zone FOs and posted 25 points at 5-on-5. I’d place him right around league average and, in my opinion, is enough of an improvement on Haas to be worth the trade. As our host would say, your mileage clearly varies.
Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,
I also wasn’t suggesting that was the extent of the moves. Chiasson could still be moved, Neal could still be bought out.
Well that’s difference then. No way I see Montour get 6mil. I have him at ~4 for 1 yr.
Harpers Hair,
Usually I don’t concern myself with your drivel, but that made me chuckle.
“He’s always been small and has always easily overcome it.”
Huh? Have you been watching him play since he was a kid? Or are you blindly offering your ignorant opinion?
Nuge Drai Yamo were so damn good I still can’t believe they were split up.
These coaches blender and blender and search and search for the magic chem combos and you find a sparkling gem that you may never find again and you shrug and huck it into the ocean.
That’s $8.2 mill out. And about $11.3 in.
I modelled Montour at 6. Someone probably gives him more. I gave Larsson 1.8 mill and traded Adam L. for Kerfoot.
And w/ a $2.2M backup, Ennis at $1.1M, Bear at 2.5, the roster will be $5M above the cap.
David Perron’s play in these playoffs.
Dallas Eakins, the gift that keeps on giving.
Jake Virtanen is a good example of something the Oilers don’t do well, recast a failed high pick as a serviceable foot soldier.
The Oilers either lose them for pennies on the dollar like Cogliano or Pitlick, or outright torture them into exile like Yakupov or Puljujjiarvi.
Fortunately, that is a hallmark of the Wings under Holland so there’s hope.
I remember that move!
Two unsung aspects of that era:
1) No rink board advertising. That appeals to the purist in me.
2) No helmets. It was so easy to identify the players simply by their haircuts and their skating stride. Of course, that eventually begat Ron Duguay and Ak Iafrate, so there’s a limit!
I guess you missed my previous post:
“I’m not sure what the fascination is for Oilers fans with Kerfoot. He’s not strong defensively, he doesn’t PK, he’s not good at faceoffs and he doesn’t drive possession. And frankly, the fact that Keefe played Spezza at 3C instead of Kerfoot should set alarm bells ringing.
Hard pass.”
Kerfoot played LW for the last half if the season. I’m not convinced AT ALL that he’s a 3C solution worth pursuing, as I don’t think he’s a league-average 3C. We’d be better off paying 37-year-old Jason Spezza $750k x 1 year – and that’s not a great solution either.
Pete was slower than Frank iirc, but he could push the puck between two defensemen, get his arms through and get a shot away. They called it splitting the defense, he’s the only guy I ever saw do it as an actual play. Did it many times, and had success.
No worries!
Thanks for clarifying!
I remember his younger brother, Peter, much more clearly. Always seemed an underappreciated piece of that Habs dynasty. Probably suffered by comparison to his older brother.
He was a bit of a gentle giant, but I remember someone ticked him off once and he beat the holy hell out of him. It was likely a Bruin or Flyer, but I can’t remember who ; ) There were a LOT of tough lads on Les Habitants back then
I didn’t edit to be dishonest, but rather to make it more clear. That said, I apologize for any feelings it may have caused and assure you that was not my intent.
I didn’t change it, but the edit button and feature photo page are no longer part of my WordPress. Not sure why but am tracking it down..
Jeez, just google imaged Frank Mahovlich and he was actually a pretty big boy. Terry Sawchuk might’ve been the only skinny guy in the league back then. lol
Frank Mahovlich was big for the era, had great hands and a big shot. Howie Meeker described him as a big, rambunctious kid as a young NHL player. He hammer a player and knock him down, go back to the other end and get hit by the same guy and get up laughing.
I remember him as something of an icon, as my father considered the 1960’s Leafs as being the ultimate. Hard to compare across eras.
Not quite old enough to remember Frank Mahovlich, but Elias Pettersson is kind of how I pictured the Big M from the descriptions. Was he that lanky? Elias has a heavy shot for a skinny dude.
Holland did expressly mention that, while some changes need to be made (obviously), he does not want to be changing out 5-7 players ever year – wants to create some stability within the roster.
No player in the NHL has ever handled the puck as well at top speed as McDavid, with the possible exceptions of Bure and Super Mario.
Connor would be dominant in any era. Can’t hit what you can’t catch.
Nearly every 70s team had some slow lumbering D. McDavid would’ve feasted on those turnstiles.
Man, these Bruins look like they can beat anyone right now. Zero passengers on that team.
Wish the Oil played with this kind of relentlessness.
4 goals in 5:43. Wow Boston.
Make that no shots for
4GA
What a collapse by Canes
No shots
3 goals against in 3rd
I’m pretty sure HH is just trying to jerk my chain. Pretty funny given that the Canucks are as pillowy soft as any team in the league. NHL officiating is in my opinion the absolute worst of any of the major pro sports! No consistency!
I’m not old enough to go back that far.
However, I am old enough to remember the Marchment type predatory knee hits.
Players still get away with that in certain instances just not open ice with momentum.
There was the Ennis hit in which Dach lead with his knee.
Or this one:
https://youtu.be/8ZbvgJmyNwU
Now Giordano didn’t have much momentum, but his technique wasn’t much different than this:
https://youtu.be/hnCHMwddJCY
I don’t believe you are that naive. Did you happen to see the Kassian and Turtlechuk incident! That’s your new NHL anyone can run someone with no repercussions. We used to call that sort of thing Mickey Mouse or other things I won’t get into!
dustrock,
Clay travis regarding football
https://twitter.com/Outkick/status/1295532616372944902
The instigator rule is nothing more than a minor inconvenience.
A two minute penalty to protect your star players is nothing unless your team is populated by snowflakes.
I fail to see how I haven’t addressed the 3C hole.
Kerfoot is a capable defensive player fresh off a decent season as a 3C in Toronto. As discussed at length in prior threads, Larsson is a strong defensive player that plays the Sheahan role FAR better than Sheahan does. At absolute worst, they’re a substantive improvement on Haas and Sheahan respectively.
As for the backup conundrum, as was mentioned, those moves leave us pretty much cap neutral up to that point meaning we have ample space to resign Bear, Benning, (maybe) Ennis, and a UFA backup.
Might I ask what your definition of “fixing the 3C hole” would be so I can compare? Lately, I feel the need to emphasize the old adage that “the perfect is the enemy of the good”.
Agree. I don’t see slow burn making that many changes
McDavid has had two serious injuries both on illegal plays one by Manning who taunted the Oilers about it and the other by Giordano who came within a hair of ending McDavids career. The only difference is that today’s players that injure others are more sophisticated in how they do it. Instead of talking out of the wrong end extricate your head and give it a shake. I am old enough to have watched the six team league when much of Canada still didn’t have television. The sorry part of today’s game is the instigator rule. In the days you want me to think about if you hurt another teams best player you would have to answer for it! The chickenshit things that go on in today’s game did not go unpunished!
Petterson would also have a rough time.
But it’s not true he plays that many minutes…about 18/game while McDavid is close to 23/game.
Sure, but you still haven’t solved the two biggest offseason issues: 3C and 2G.
Are you old enough to remember hockey in the sixties and early seventies or are you talking through your hat?
McDavid has NEVER seen that kind of brutality.