As much as this blog trusts math as it pertains to drafting hockey prospects, I nor any of the big brains who return my emails would ever suggest an NHL team get rid of the boots on the ground and eyes in the sky. Those men in black might look like lost souls from a Johnny Cash convention but at the 2020 draft scouts will have the elite talent taken care of early in the festivities. By pick 75, teams will be sifting through the crumbs looking for something resembling talent.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s bet on Andreas Athanasiou and how Oilers will proceed
- Lowetide: Lessons learned from the ghosts of Oilers’ draft weekends past
- Lowetide: Oilers’ William Lagesson may benefit from extraordinary circumstances
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We’ll learn and grow from it’: Connor McDavid’s tune different compared to last year
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
- Lowetide: A rational approach for the Oilers at the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What’s holding back the Oilers? Superstars’ defence and team’s depth under focus
- Jonathan Willis: After a play-in round exit, the Oilers need an offseason of change
- Lowetide: Oilers 2020 picks finalized, it’s go time for Jesse Puljujarvi
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Edmonton again? How Oilers would benefit from No. 1 pick and Alexis Lafrenière
- Lowetide: Oilers’ guilty pleasure, the draft lottery, could offer a quick fix
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s urgent summer as Oilers general manager begins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have some disappointing lessons to learn — even in season of progress
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Replacing Tyler Ennis: Ranking the best left wing and backfill Oilers options
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Andreas Athanasiou gets a push against ‘Hawks. Is it enough?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Bang for your buck: Ranking the Oilers based on contract expectations
- Jonathan Willis: Is Philip Broberg on track to be a top-pairing defenceman?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options over the next five months
In December of 2014, Craig MacTavish, a smart man, said the following:
“It (absence of drafted players from later rounds) undermines the performance of everything we do on and off the ice, and it has to get better. From the minute we took over we focused on improving our draft record. You’re right, there were only two players who played in Winnipeg drafted outside of the first round. So we’re acutely aware of the former inadequacies of our draft after the first round. We’ve worked hard to improve all of our draft processes. We are more regionally focused. There’s more of an emphasis on getting to know the players, interviewing the players. We’ve integrated a lot of analytics into our decision making. We’ve integrated a lot of technology into our video scouting. We’ve got more management now in the field communicating with our scouts. We’ve got a draft philosophy since I took over in an effort to improve our draft record.Last year’s draft is tough to evaluate because we didn’t have a 2nd or 3rd round pick. The draft before I think we’ve added a lot of pieces & a lot of things that we needed.”
MacT is probably the most complicated person in the drama that has been playing out over the last 20 years. Smart fellow, articulate, open to new ideas based on reports. I think he could have been an outstanding general manager (he was an excellent coach) but needed to spend some time learning the tricks of the trade. Even as an inexperienced GM he did some impressive things (Leon Draisaitl draft was franchise altering) and the words above have clarity and give structure to a department that is hard to measure and enforce.
The hope I always had for the Oilers was a model for scouting based on trusting your men in the field, having a central figure suss out the list, using analytics to get an edge, drafting from that list no matter who is related to whom, and competing at the draft table like a mature organization. Perhaps that is what Ken Holland brought to the Oilers scouting department. I do believe the group has been on the right track since 2015. Here are the NHLE’s for the top players in the 2020 draft (this is an old ranking) with NHLE outliers in bold. If an NHL team uses equivalencies or similar then a top 15 ranking for any name in bold should be flagged and discussed into the wee hours of morning. If the GM takes a player who is shy offensively, then he better be right. Note: Euro pro players often have a low NHLE due to lower time on ice. I didn’t bold those players.
(1) L Alexis Lafreniere 50.2
(2) LC Quinton Byfield 48.3
(3) LC Tim Stutzle 35.4
(4) LC Marco Rossi 56.8
(5) RHD Jamie Drysdale 25.4
(6) LC Cole Perfetti, OHL 48.2
(7) RW Alexander Holtz 22.3
(8) LW Lucas Raymond 14.9
(9) RW Jack Quinn OHL 38.0
(10) RC Seth Jarvis 41.8
(11) RW Dawson Mercer 33.3
(12) RC Mavrik Bourque 33.7
(13) LD Jake Sanderson 16.3
(14) LC Connor Zary 37.3
(15) LC Anton Lundell 23.6
(16) RW Noel Gunler 14.1
(17) LC Jan Mysak 30.1
(18) RC Jacob Perreault 32.5
(19) LD Kaiden Guhle 15.5
(20) RC Tyson Foerster 34.2
(21) LD Jérémie Poirier 19.3
(22) G Yaroslav Askarov .923 VHL save percentage.
(23) LW Lukas Reichel 24.4
(24) RD Braden Schneider 17.3
(25) LW Rodion Amirov. 19.1
(26) LW Dylan Holloway. 13.3
(27) LW Ridly Greig 26.5
(28) LC Hendrix Lapierre 20.8
(29) RHD Justin Barron 13.1
(30) RW Zion Nybeck 32.2
(31) LW Brendan Brisson 29.0
(32) LD Emil Andrae 19.5
(33) LW Sean Farrell 28.2
(34) LW Jake Neighbours 27.1
(35) RC Jean-Luc Foudy 19.3
(36) RW Luke Evangelista 26.1
(37) LW Martin Chromiak. 31.2
(38) LD William Wallinder 13.3
(39) LW John-Jason Peterka 11.2
(40) RW Ozzy Wiesblatt 27.1
(41) RD Helge Grans 20.8
(42) RW Connor McClennon 28.9
(43) RC Jack Finley. 24.7
(44) RW Sam Colangelo 29.2
(45) RW Kasper Simontaival 25.3
(46) RC Justin Sourdif 23.5
(47) LC Thomas Bordeleau 20.9
(48) LW Veeti Miettinen 29.3
(49) RW Pavel Novak 26.1
(50) LW Daniel Torgersson 23.1
(51) LC Vasili Ponomaryov 20.0
(52) RC Tyler Tullio 28.2
(53) RW Ryan Francis 27.5
(54) LC Ty Smilanic 16.6
(55) LW Carter Savoie 24.1
(56) RC Theodor Niederbach. 24.6
(57) LD Ryan O’Rourke 18.1
(58) LW Brett Berard 30.7
(59) RW Daniil Gushchin. 19.8
(60) LW Oskar Magnusson 25.9
(61) RC Jaromir Pytlik 23.6
(62) RD William Villeneuve. 21.1
(63) LW Owen Pederson 20.3
(64) LC Marat Khusnutdinov 12.4
(65) LW Will Cuylle 17.9
(66) LD Lukas Cormier. 19.1
(67) RD Michael Benning. 18.2
(68) RW Brandon Coe 25.2
(69) LC Roni Hirvonen 11.4
(70) LW Luke Tuch 16.3
(71) Tristen Robins 29.2
(72) LD Yan Kuznetsov 10.4
(73) LC Antonio Stranges, OHL 17.4
(74) RW Alexander Pashin 15.6
(75) RW Dylan Peterson. 12.9
So, the five names I’ve flagged are Dylan Holloway, John-Jason Peterka, Ty Smilanic, Roni Hirvonen and Dylan Peterson. Ironically, both Holloway (Pronman) and Peterka (Leavins) have been associated with the Oilers. For the record, I don’t think Holland will draft either man. I’ll guess those two Q kids (Mercer and Bourque) are high on the GM’s list based on his own past.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on TSN1260, we begin at 10. At 10:20 Matthew Scianitti from TSN will talk CFL as the 2020 season was canceled yesterday. At 11, Ryan Pike from Flames Nation and The Sporting News talks Flames-Stars, and at 11:20 Jason Rogers from Washington City Paper, Japers’ Rink and NBC Sports Washington will talk Capitals-Islanders. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
godot10,
Agreed, I was flabbergasted when he broke up Dra, yam and nuge
It would be interesting to hear for sure.
My guess is it involves Benning’s ‘tools’. A few posters here were citing Benning’s size/strength/skating as limiting him from playing a larger role even before Tippett was hired. The coach is likely seeing the same things, results be damned.
Tippett owns the loss for being outcoached (he outsmarted himself) and losing to a clearly inferior team.
He made good decisions all year and had a brain cramp preparing for the playoffs.
#StrikeOne
It will be a pretty good test next year to see if he can learn from his mistakes.
It would be interesting to know Dave’s reasoning behind this decision not to try Benning at 2RD for short stints to see if he has advanced his game to take the role on more frequently, because if he has developed it would certainly help the team A LOT!
So, who here finds it annoying that Chicago couldn’t even make it an entertaining series in Round 1?
He wasn’t coming off a concussion in camp though, still no looks.
Anyway, yes it is possible something changes with the coaching staff’s usage of Benning. I think that’s extremely unlikely and because of it Benning is likely to be moved with another veteran filling that spot.
Pretty sure it was his draft year, so he was not in fact zoomed much or at all.
It is done by percentages. If the Oilers retain $1 million, 25%. the team receiving him pays 75% of $1.5 million…just under $1.1 million.
Jesse named an Assistant Captain for Karpat (along with former Oiler star, Jussi Jokkinen).
Was it Bouch’s draft year or his draft plus 1 where London was awful and they sold all of their top players except for Evan – Even continued to crush it.
I think it was draft plus 1.
I agree that his edges and lateral mobility are not great but the man can skate for speed, both forwards and backwards.
He back a “Nurse-like” puck transporter with zone entries and exits as the year developed – of course, he has the ability/skill/IQ to pass (from either zone) and makes players past the opposition blue that Nurse doesn’t/
I understand what you are saying (as you do I) but we don’t know what we don’t know including the reasons for not giving Benning any of those at bats – perhaps they wanted to keep his ice time down in the season where he had a couple of head injuries and, now that he’ll be a year removed from those, they would be willing to increase his ice? Just a thought – could have nothing to do with it and they could, as you say, just not trust him.
I’m also not suggesting starting at bats up the lineup – I want Benning as 3RD to start the season but, once/if there are injuries to Bear or Larsson (or his replacement in the top 4), I think Benning could/should be the top candidate to slide up – over Russell or Jones on their off-side.
I am hopeful that the coaches come to this conclusion with a healthier Benning as well – they may not.
Of course, Holland taking Rusty away as an option would help.
I don’t think that’s right on the cash outlay.
If the Oilers retain $1M of the cap, that’s apx 25%, the Oilers would retain 25% of the cash outlay as well so apx $1.1M.
Yes, the structure of his contract helps but, at the end of the day, Rusty and his agent could sit down and make an educated list of the team’s that might be interested in his contract and put them on his NTC list – the likes of Ottawa and Florida, etc.
I’m not saying there is a trade out there to a destination that we would agree to but Rusty could make it difficult if he really wants to stay.
BPA starts becoming fuzzy very quickly after the top 3-5 depending on the year’s cohort.
At 14 if a quality player is there in a position of need there is no reaching in picking that way. Nobody knows who will emerge as the best player down the road at that point.
If there isn’t a quality player – for example you need a RC and there isn’t one on the board ranked in the first round and you still draft one that should have been a 2nd rounder – that’s a reach.
I don’t think he’s a good fit for the Oilers either but he does put up points at even strength. He’s 9th in the league in 5v5 points/60 for Dmen over the past 3 seasons.
€√¥£€^$,
I worry about recency bias, QoT, and small sample sizes. You are fairly heavily weighing about 1/5 of the season and less so the other 79%, which I can’t quite reconcile. This high in such a deep draft I want more of a sure thing, and less of a swing for the fences (best taken in the 5-7th rounds, imo).
Kinda feels like Erickson Ek over Barzal to me, which was a poor choice (even if it would have been a superior result to the eventual outcome).
“Ignore the NHLe at your own peril” was the money quote, I believe.
Puljujarvi was (is) big and fast and skilled. Holloway checked a lot of the boxes.
But NHLE raised a flag on Puljujarvi, and it turned out to be a legitimate one.
Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,
My draft list was one of Dobson or Whalstrom that year. When both fell and were available I just *knew ChiaPete was going to take Bouchard. I was a little sour that day, as I recall. Skating was my prime concern. That and being on a stacked London Knights team possibly zooming his boxcars.
Later I dug into the scouting reports further. Turns out he was the fastest backwards skater in the OHL in his draft year and fairly high up the list going forwards. So his skating deficiencies are transitions and first step. Teachable skills. I’ve grown stronger on Bouch since draft, all he’s done is improve. There’s a lot to like, and good reason to be optimistic.
I’d much prefer his development path to that or Whalstrom or even Boqvist who are in the NHL but being as heavily sheltered as possible, playing immaterial minutes and not consistently playing games. Not only does that kill the value of the ELC but it limits the effectiveness of an important roster position.
I’m happy the Oilers are taking the prudent path in this case. Not really much to argue with, IMO.
A little more Ryan Jones in his game and he might just look elite.
I am honestly confused by your response.
You are referring to a completely different player in a completely different scenario.
An NCAA season is much shorter than other leagues, so 8 games is a significant sample size. Progression is a thing, as is quality of competition.
I thought I laid it out rather clearly. Dylan Holloway scored 41% of his points in the last 21% of his games and EV scoring was comparable to 2 highly touted scorers at the top-end of last year’s draft. This small sample was achieved against some of the best competition he could go up against at this level.
If he is able to play games next year, this improved production will also reveal itself. In a very deep draft without putting up numbers he has been mentioned in the top 15 all year fairly consistenly. The fact he was starting to produce at higher rates just reinforces why he was so highly touted.
He is a bonafide top 15 talent in this draft. NHLE be damned.
I see what you’re saying as well, and certainly you could conclude Tippett made a mistake in each case that theoretically he could learn from.
I think the broader situations are very different though. Tippett clearly knows that Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto works. He went away from it for a completely reasonable reason. The only error was taking too long to go back to it when things weren’t working.
Benning was never played at 2RD despite rookies, left D, and rookie left D getting games there. You think Tippett’s made an error of judgement but I think it’s highly unlikely Tippett does (I agree Tippett should have given Benning some kind of shot there btw). He never did try it so I’m not sure what he could have learned.
IMO it’s extremely unlikely Tippett is going to change his mind on Benning at this point and start giving him games higher in the batting order.
It is kinda fascinating though to reflect on what people choose to do with their time. I visit this site because I’m an Oiler fan and I really enjoy the insights I get here, from LT to the many fine posters. But I guess there’s that tiny fraction of people who simply enjoy the prospect of inflicting misery on others. (Mayn’t misery is a bit of an overstatement). Would also be interesting to know how they reconcile this creepy behaviour with their own self image.
So Krusty’s cap hit is $4 million
Actual salary after bonus paid is $1.5 million
If the oilers retain $1 million the new team has a $3 million cap hit and only has to pay him $500,000, which is $200,000 below league minimum.
With all the cash strapped teams out there you all don’t think the oilers will find a taker for that?
Also, with tv revenue only around 20% of league revenue I don’t see how the league can run next season without fans, and I don’t see how the world will be ready for fans until March/April at the earliest …
I won’t respond to garbage. I won’t respond to garbage. I won’t respond to garbage. Just have to keep telling myself this.
Would love to know how often HH has actually watched Bouchard play. I would ask, but wouldn’t expect an honest answer.
I know I’m going to regret asking, but I’m fascinated to see your list of the nine elite dmen drafted in the last five years. I don’t see nine and I think all of them except for one were drafted before the Oil had their first pick – except for maybe the McDavid year. Guess we should have drafted a dman instead.
yeraslob,
It’s honestly amazing how many threads can get corrupted with just a poorly-reasoned negative comment about Bouchard. Particularly when I recall the majority of Oilers fans preferred Dobson. We truly are helpless against vacuous crap.
There ya go, that’s the crap he comes up with… classic Sportsnet spillies. Careful though, he’s threatened people with legal action here… might need a lawyer, lol.
Ya. As much as Gregor has been pumping the tires of Barrie, I don’t think he’s the right fit for the Oil. We don’t need a PP specialist at defence. We need someone who can make an outlet pass and transition the puck.
yeraslob,
Yeah, but sometimes I relish joining the trolls under their bridges. I’ll go back to ignoring his posts tomorrow.
Harpers Hair,
Ah, revisionist history. I love shitting on the Oilers for not picking Brannstrom and Valimaki 7 and 6 picks after they were gone. I also love shitting on the Oilers for not drafting Chychrun and McAvoy at 4th overall.
Pathetic.
Cuz you’re dealing with a troll who doesn’t have a life. Between here and trolling Sportsnet as a flames fan, this is all he’s got.
Brannstrom still hasn’t emerged. Valimaki has hardly “arrived”. Sandin wasn’t a full time NHLer. Love me some Jokiharju and he, Chychrun, and Girard are interesting outliers
Chabot arrived full time in draft+3. Josi arrived full time draft+3. Carlson arrived full time draft+3. Hamilton arrived draft+3. The same year Bouchard is in heading into next season. Why is this still a discussion?
Who is we?
I don’t think Tippett underutilized Benning. Benning is probably the 6 or 7D on the current roster.
I think Tippett handled the defense just fine.
Sandin 29th
Brannstrom 15th
Valimaki 16th
Jokiharju 29th
Chabot 18th
MacAvoy 14th
Chychrun 18th
Girard 47th
Just a few examples of many that the Oilers missed.
So the hapless flames have two chances to avoid yet another playoff participation ribbon. Only twice past the first round in the last 30 years – pathetic.
I agree that Benning is the likely guy to go, simply because Russell will be next to impossible to trade.
But don’t you think that Holland could get a mid round pick for Benning? I am hoping for a 3rd.
Comparing two mock draft sites, the top 3 are the same which isn’t surprising as I’m sure they’re the same pretty much everywhere. The other picks that are the same: 7. NJD Holtz, 9. MIN Lindell, 12. FLA Quinn.
They both have the same players at 4,5,6,8 but in different order.
Raymond at 4&5 for 4.5avg; Drysdale at 5&6 for 5.5avg: Perfetti at 4&8, for a 6avg; Rossi at 6&8 for a 7avg. Sanderson is also gone ahead of Edmonton in both mocks at 10&11 for a 10.5avg.
One mock has Schneider at #11 and Mercer at #13 while the other has Jarvis at 10 and Askarov at 13.
Draftsite recently updated their mock draft and it would be my dream scenario. All of Askarov, Zary, Jarvis, Guhle, Holloway, Lapierre, Amirov, and Bourque would still be available in their mock. Actually, maybe that’s the nightmare. Too many good options to pick instead of Askarov. But even if they don’t get Askarov, there is going to be a solid prospect still on the board at #14. I think I’d pick in the order I listed above.
Why does Bouchard get compared to defensemen drafted in the top 3 or top 5? Nonsensical and unfair. I’ve read the names Dahlin, Hughes, Hedman, Petro, Jones, Byram, etc. Pretty sure the Oilers would have taken those guys if they had the chance…..
Not that any Oiler poster in this community has suggested that Bouchard is going to be a top 5 d-man in the league.
Victor Hedman who didn’t crack 30 points until his fourth year in the NHL…..
I think he meant pre-draft, not two years post-draft. There is no way you had Sandin ranked that high in 2018.
Elite players are elite early
Except for all those guys that aren’t
Right shot centers are very difficult to find. They are harder to acquire than right shot D. Therefore if you have a chance to draft a high skill right shot centre it is prudent to do so.
Surely even a hairy harpy can tell that most of those guys are lotto picks and some still actually needed a few seasons to get going
Jones needed 5 years to really get going
Josi didn’t get going until his 6th season
Actually
Pronger wasn’t an explosive skater. Great stick, elite passer, plus shot, positionally fantastic. That should be Bouchard’s blueprint. He’s missing Pronger’s intensity and I’m not sure that can be taught.
We’ll have to see how that skating works in the much faster NHL.
You mean bigger players like Seth Jones, Victor Hedman, Roman Josi. Thomas Chabot and Alex Pietrangelo.
Yeah, they took forever to arrive.
I agree that he is the top goalie prospect and that he’ll go in the first round. The question is: how long will it take for him to become a quality NHL starter?