Dollar Sign on the Muscle

by Lowetide

As much as this blog trusts math as it pertains to drafting hockey prospects, I nor any of the big brains who return my emails would ever suggest an NHL team get rid of the boots on the ground and eyes in the sky. Those men in black might look like lost souls from a Johnny Cash convention but at the 2020 draft scouts will have the elite talent taken care of early in the festivities. By pick 75, teams will be sifting through the crumbs looking for something resembling talent.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

In December of 2014, Craig MacTavish, a smart man, said the following:

“It (absence of drafted players from later rounds) undermines the performance of everything we do on and off the ice, and it has to get better.  From the minute we took over we focused on improving our draft record. You’re right, there were only two players who played in Winnipeg drafted outside of the first round. So we’re acutely aware of the former inadequacies of our draft after the first round. We’ve worked hard to improve all of our draft processes. We are more regionally focused. There’s more of an emphasis on getting to know the players, interviewing the players. We’ve integrated a lot of analytics into our decision making. We’ve integrated a lot of technology into our video scouting. We’ve got more management now in the field communicating with our scouts. We’ve got a draft philosophy since I took over in an effort to improve our draft record.Last year’s draft is tough to evaluate because we didn’t have a 2nd or 3rd round pick. The draft before I think we’ve added a lot of pieces & a lot of things that we needed.” 

MacT is probably the most complicated person in the drama that has been playing out over the last 20 years. Smart fellow, articulate, open to new ideas based on reports. I think he could have been an outstanding general manager (he was an excellent coach) but needed to spend some time learning the tricks of the trade. Even as an inexperienced GM he did some impressive things (Leon Draisaitl draft was franchise altering) and the words above have clarity and give structure to a department that is hard to measure and enforce.

The hope I always had for the Oilers was a model for scouting based on trusting your men in the field, having a central figure suss out the list, using analytics to get an edge, drafting from that list no matter who is related to whom, and competing at the draft table like a mature organization. Perhaps that is what Ken Holland brought to the Oilers scouting department. I do believe the group has been on the right track since 2015. Here are the NHLE’s for the top players in the 2020 draft (this is an old ranking) with NHLE outliers in bold. If an NHL team uses equivalencies or similar then a top 15 ranking for any name in bold should be flagged and discussed into the wee hours of morning. If the GM takes a player who is shy offensively, then he better be right. Note: Euro pro players often have a low NHLE due to lower time on ice. I didn’t bold those players.

(1) L Alexis Lafreniere 50.2
(2) LC Quinton Byfield 48.3
(3) LC Tim Stutzle 35.4
(4) LC Marco Rossi 56.8
(5) RHD Jamie Drysdale 25.4
(6) LC Cole Perfetti, OHL 48.2
(7) RW Alexander Holtz 22.3
(8) LW Lucas Raymond 14.9
(9) RW Jack Quinn OHL 38.0
(10) RC Seth Jarvis 41.8
(11) RW Dawson Mercer 33.3
(12) RC Mavrik Bourque 33.7
(13) LD Jake Sanderson 16.3
(14) LC Connor Zary 37.3
(15) LC Anton Lundell 23.6
(16) RW Noel Gunler 14.1
(17) LC Jan Mysak 30.1
(18) RC Jacob Perreault 32.5
(19) LD Kaiden Guhle 15.5
(20) RC Tyson Foerster 34.2
(21) LD Jérémie Poirier 19.3
(22) G Yaroslav Askarov .923 VHL save percentage.
(23) LW Lukas Reichel 24.4
(24) RD Braden Schneider 17.3
(25) LW Rodion Amirov. 19.1
(26) LW Dylan Holloway. 13.3
(27) LW Ridly Greig 26.5
(28) LC Hendrix Lapierre 20.8
(29) RHD Justin Barron 13.1
(30) RW Zion Nybeck 32.2
(31) LW Brendan Brisson 29.0
(32) LD Emil Andrae 19.5
(33) LW Sean Farrell 28.2
(34) LW Jake Neighbours 27.1
(35) RC Jean-Luc Foudy 19.3
(36) RW Luke Evangelista 26.1
(37) LW Martin Chromiak. 31.2
(38) LD William Wallinder 13.3
(39) LW John-Jason Peterka 11.2
(40) RW Ozzy Wiesblatt 27.1
(41) RD Helge Grans 20.8
(42) RW Connor McClennon 28.9
(43) RC Jack Finley. 24.7
(44) RW Sam Colangelo 29.2
(45) RW Kasper Simontaival 25.3
(46) RC Justin Sourdif 23.5
(47) LC Thomas Bordeleau 20.9
(48) LW Veeti Miettinen 29.3
(49) RW Pavel Novak 26.1
(50) LW Daniel Torgersson 23.1
(51) LC Vasili Ponomaryov 20.0
(52) RC Tyler Tullio 28.2
(53) RW Ryan Francis 27.5
(54) LC Ty Smilanic 16.6
(55) LW Carter Savoie 24.1
(56) RC Theodor Niederbach. 24.6
(57) LD Ryan O’Rourke 18.1
(58) LW Brett Berard 30.7
(59) RW Daniil Gushchin. 19.8
(60) LW Oskar Magnusson 25.9
(61) RC Jaromir Pytlik 23.6
(62) RD William Villeneuve. 21.1
(63) LW Owen Pederson 20.3
(64) LC Marat Khusnutdinov 12.4
(65) LW Will Cuylle 17.9
(66) LD Lukas Cormier. 19.1
(67) RD Michael Benning. 18.2
(68) RW Brandon Coe 25.2
(69) LC Roni Hirvonen 11.4
(70) LW Luke Tuch 16.3
(71) Tristen Robins 29.2
(72) LD Yan Kuznetsov 10.4
(73) LC Antonio Stranges, OHL 17.4
(74) RW Alexander Pashin 15.6
(75) RW Dylan Peterson. 12.9

So, the five names I’ve flagged are Dylan Holloway, John-Jason Peterka, Ty Smilanic, Roni Hirvonen and Dylan Peterson. Ironically, both Holloway (Pronman) and Peterka (Leavins) have been associated with the Oilers. For the record, I don’t think Holland will draft either man. I’ll guess those two Q kids (Mercer and Bourque) are high on the GM’s list based on his own past.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on TSN1260, we begin at 10. At 10:20 Matthew Scianitti from TSN will talk CFL as the 2020 season was canceled yesterday. At 11, Ryan Pike from Flames Nation and The Sporting News talks Flames-Stars, and at 11:20 Jason Rogers from Washington City Paper, Japers’ Rink and NBC Sports Washington will talk Capitals-Islanders. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Brantford Boy

LT: “I’ll guess those two Q kids (Mercer and Bourque) are high on the GM’s list based on his own past.”

I hope you’re right!

Captain Lazy request… been coming to the blog for about a decade and have gained momentum on many “math” subjects. I am ‘genuinely’ or ‘generally’ interested in the NHLE math. I’ve asked before and will put a full disclaimer, if this is ripping off a ton of hard work, I’ll understand if anyone says ‘Go find out yourself Brantford Boy’.

So, my question… is there a website that shows the draft eligible players NHLE with a full breakdown of how they got there (ie: GP, G-A-P TOI etc.)? This site is great, in fact, mostly my only source. Again, not trying to undermine things here. I’ve seen the calculation websites but as I said Captain Lazy would like to just see it all laid out all nice. I do have one question for the host. Would you be able to show an actual NHLE calculation from a couple random players in the draft before it happens? I’d be really curious to see one from each league, especially the DEL. Then, at least if there is no great NHLE website, I can make sure my “math” is correct should I create my own spreadsheet etc. in the future. Believe me, I’ll need the verification… I used to have girls do my math homework in high school.

oilersjo

Ozzy Wiesblatt is listed as RW but took over 700 face offs last year. and won over 50 %.

Brantford Boy

Lowetide: I don’t know of a site that lists them. My two current sources are here:

https://nhlecalculator.blogspot.com/2017/05/the-nhle-calculator-updated-24052017.html

https://theleafsnation.com/2017/06/01/re-approaching-the-methodology-of-nhle/

Thanks LT…

From one of your links I came across this Excel Spreadsheet:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0nCb1z6vquyekNQeWVEck9udkU/view

It’s a good start, I suspect your final product is similar LT… but no way am I going to determine how many games player X played and how many points player X registered for a complete draft. I just had to Google how many games the WHL season is as an example. That’d be a ton of effort.

I’m a little surprised nothing exists, as a “retired” computer programmer, on the surface, this seems so simple to me, all the data is there… just import and apply the math… I’ll keep looking.

Brantford Boy

Brantford Boy: Thanks LT…

From one of your links I came across this Excel Spreadsheet:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0nCb1z6vquyekNQeWVEck9udkU/view

One note: The spreadsheet would not load in the webpage, click the down arrow to download it…

leadfarmer

Swing for the fences.
Jarvis or Askarov please
Choose the guy that outscored the next best player by 30 points not the guy that has a lotto pick feeding him passes

leadfarmer

leadfarmer,

The likelihood that only 2 defensemen are chosen before us is 0%

Darth Tu

leadfarmer:
leadfarmer,

The likelihood that only 2 defensemen are chosen before us is 0%

I enjoy that you’re having a chat with yourself here.

I agree though. At least 3 will be gone, teams need D and fall in love with prospects.

I’m also in on the go for the guy banging in points on his own rather than the person who might have their NHLE boosted by playing with elite players. See US development guys from last year’s draft, that was a mess to sift through and try to parse out.

dustrock

leadfarmer:
Swing for the fences.
Jarvis or Askarov please
Choose the guy that outscored the next best player by 30 points not the guy that has a lotto pick feeding him passes

I like Jarvis a lot, but there are worries about a Portland zoom as well (i.e. Nic Petan).

Todd Macallan

leadfarmer:
Swing for the fences.
Jarvis or Askarov please
Choose the guy that outscored the next best player by 30 points not the guy that has a lotto pick feeding him passes

If you are indeed referring to Quinn with your last point there I believe he spent much of the season on his own line and not with Marco Rossi. However I’m not sure about their PP time together. Also love Jarvis, while Askarov would certainly be an interesting and exciting pick!

GordieHoweHatTrick

Darth Tu: I enjoy that you’re having a chat with yourself here.

I agree though. At least 3 will be gone, teams need D and fall in love with prospects.

I’m also in on the go for the guy banging in points on his own rather than the person who might have their NHLE boosted by playing with elite players.See US development guys from last year’s draft, that was a mess to sift through and try to parse out.

There should be a very talented forward on the board @ 14 (presumably Oil pick).
It is not outside the realm of possibility that the player could arrive in Draft +2. Make the right pick!

Canes with a heartbreaker last night as a result of the Boston Blitzkrieg. Some comfort in knowing the Oil and Laughs aren’t the only teams to choke hard in the 3 period this year. Maybe the Canes will learn from it, they are a rather young and talented team that is on the rise out east. I think they will take Askarov. I don’t know what the G pipeline is, but it is probably the largest hole in the plan to get a solid top 6, 3C, top 4 and G.

A scathing indictment of Oilers incompetence by Mr. McCurdy here:

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/what-happened-to-edmonton-oilers-scoring-wingers-theyre-still-scoring-but-for-other-nhl-teams

I could laugh about it, if it didn’t piss me off so much!

Maybe he can do the same for D too sometime…😭

€√¥£€^$

My favourite 1st Round targets who might be available at #14:
Lundell
Quinn
Holloway
Jarvis
Amirov

2nd Round Targets:
Wiesblatt
Gunler (If he does, I wonder how far he falls, could be a steal)
Hirvonen
Finley

3rd Round Targets:
Robins
Miettinen
Tullio
Savoie

Beyond 3rd Round:

There are tons of overagers this season where immense value can be found. These are the players I’d be targeting.
My favourites:

Oksentyuk
Sokolov
Gogolev
Alex Young
Parker Ford
Kristian Tanus
Alex Cotton
Gage Goncalves
Nico Daws

Nix

Speaking of draft prospects, Gregor has an article up today about blueline shuffling and he talks of Bennings usefulness, open ice hitting, and surprising GF#’s but….. thats apparently Evan Bouchards spot to claim. Not the first time ive heard that either. Am I missing something? Did we draft a top 10 D to play on the third pair? One that can maaaaaaaybe lets cross our fingers here guys eventually break into the top four? Wtf?
Kris ‘loves board rims/hates gravity’ Russell is routinely shoehorned in at 2RD every time Larssons back betrays him but Id play Bouch there yesterday. I dont understand. ‘Well Nix hes got to learn to defend you see’. Bullshit. He cant be worse than the array of sieves already back there and perhaps another defender actually knowing what a pass is would help immensely. If his high end is Justin Schultz then why did they draft him?

JimmyV1965

Nix:
Speaking of draft prospects, Gregor has an article up today about blueline shuffling and he talks of Bennings usefulness, open ice hitting, and surprising GF#’s but….. thats apparently Evan Bouchards spot to claim. Not the first time ive heard that either. Am I missing something? Did we draft a top 10 D to play on the third pair? One that can maaaaaaaybe lets cross our fingers here guys eventually break into the top four? Wtf?Kris ‘loves board rims/hates gravity’ Russell is routinely shoehorned in at 2RD every time Larssons back betrays him but Id play Bouch there yesterday. I dont understand. ‘Well Nix hes got to learn to defend you see’. Bullshit. He cant be worse than the array of sieves already back there and perhaps another defender actually knowing what a pass is would help immensely. If his high end is Justin Schultz then why did they draft him?

Bouchard is not a top 5 pick. The best thing for his development, and ultimately the team, is to ease him into the lineup. We’ve seen what happens when young dmen play too high in the lineup.

Silver Streak

Nix:
Speaking of draft prospects, Gregor has an article up today about blueline shuffling and he talks of Bennings usefulness, open ice hitting, and surprising GF#’s but….. thats apparently Evan Bouchards spot to claim. Not the first time ive heard that either. Am I missing something? Did we draft a top 10 D to play on the third pair? One that can maaaaaaaybe lets cross our fingers here guys eventually break into the top four? Wtf?Kris ‘loves board rims/hates gravity’ Russell is routinely shoehorned in at 2RD every time Larssons back betrays him but Id play Bouch there yesterday. I dont understand. ‘Well Nix hes got to learn to defend you see’. Bullshit. He cant be worse than the array of sieves already back there and perhaps another defender actually knowing what a pass is would help immensely. If his high end is Justin Schultz then why did they draft him?

Total agreement from me….Bouchard`s time is now….not saying throw him in the deep end on day 1, ease him in with zone time, and the correct guy on the left side.He was not picked at #10 to spend his entry contract in the Bake. Lagasson by all reports is ready this year as well….move him into the #7 slot and lets see what these kids can do. Its time.

leadfarmer

Nix:
Speaking of draft prospects, Gregor has an article up today about blueline shuffling and he talks of Bennings usefulness, open ice hitting, and surprising GF#’s but….. thats apparently Evan Bouchards spot to claim. Not the first time ive heard that either. Am I missing something? Did we draft a top 10 D to play on the third pair? One that can maaaaaaaybe lets cross our fingers here guys eventually break into the top four? Wtf?Kris ‘loves board rims/hates gravity’ Russell is routinely shoehorned in at 2RD every time Larssons back betrays him but Id play Bouch there yesterday. I dont understand. ‘Well Nix hes got to learn to defend you see’. Bullshit. He cant be worse than the array of sieves already back there and perhaps another defender actually knowing what a pass is would help immensely. If his high end is Justin Schultz then why did they draft him?

I dont have a problem with him starting on 3rd pair. None. Let him grow with confidence.
Dont shatter his confidence and send him to Bakersfield to pick up the pieces

OriginalPouzar

I agree that “the group has been on the right track since 2015” – of course there have been some misses (Benson vs. DeBrincat, for example, Jesse Puljujarvi over a number of players, for example) but no draft record is even close to perfect. In the aggregate, things have gone very well since 2015 and the hits and potential hits outside the first round are real and they are substantial.

The hesitation I currently have is the change in the amateur procurement department. Things have gone well and are on the upswing but Holland has changed the personel and brought in “his guys” – Tyler Wright and company.

Here is hoping they continue carrying the right torch.

slopitch

Take the forward that slips I think. There will be someone. Last year it was Caufield. We’ve seen Barzal slip, Dobson as well. I have little knowledge on the subject but Im leaning Lundell, Jarvis or Askarov. I always find euros are underrated but dont have data to back it. Except JP of course 😛

Munny

slopitch: Take the forward that slips I think.

You mean like Pujo?

*ducksandruns*

Munny

Nix: He cant be worse than the array of sieves already back there

This can’t possibly be serious.

You weren’t been running the Oilers during the Decade of Darkness, were you? Because this play-the-kid mentality really is a “downbeat deja vu”.

Munny

Munny,

That said, there’s a very good chance the Oilers let Benning walk simply because they can’t find a trade for KRusty.

Munny

Darth Tu: See US development guys from last year’s draft, that was a mess to sift through and try to parse out.

No kidding. Utter Jambalaya.

Also Sam Gagner and turther back, Laurie Boschman.

Munny

I think LT’s NHLes do a good job showing that the strength of this draft is that is better than usual from 10-25, and much better than usual from 25-50.

We really need to acquire a 2nd round pick but at a time when they are going to cost a serious premium.

DieHard

Trade proposal (same as it always is):
Nurse for Ehlers. … or
Nurse + JP for Ehlers + 2nd (2020 or 2021).
Keep Russell til trade deadline and make a decision.

flyfish1168

OriginalPouzar:
I agree that “the group has been on the right track since 2015” – of course there have been some misses (Benson vs. DeBrincat, for example, Jesse Puljujarvi over a number of players, for example) but no draft record is even close to perfect. In the aggregate, things have gone very well since 2015 and the hits and potential hits outside the first round are real and they are substantial.

The hesitation I currently have is the change in the amateur procurement department. Things have gone well and are on the upswing but Holland has changed the personel and brought in “his guys” – Tyler Wright and company.

Here is hoping they continue carrying the right torch.

I agree. JP when he is skating with confidence looks awesome for a big man with skill. Benson unfortunately when I saw him in limited amount doesn’t have near the skating ability of DeBrincat, this is why i would not have drafted Benson, skating and injury history. JMHO

godot10

Munny: You mean like Pujo?

*ducksandruns*

You mean, like Parise! -).

flyfish1168

flyfish1168: I agree. JP when he is skating with confidence looks awesome for a big man with skill. I can see why he was ranked high in the draft. Benson unfortunately when I saw him in limited amount doesn’t have near the skating ability of DeBrincat, this is why i would not have drafted Benson, skating and injury history. JMHO

Harpers Hair

Dale Hawerchuck has passed at 57.

Ryan

dustrock: I like Jarvis a lot, but there are worries about a Portland zoom as well (i.e. Nic Petan).

I’m on team Jarvis as well.

The next highest scoring player on the team was a 19 year-old, undrafted Jaydon Dureau at 70 points.

Jarvis had 1.69 ppg (0.72 gpg) in the WHL

For reference,

RNH had 1.54 ppg (0.45 gpg)
Draisail had 1.64 ppg (0.6 gpg)

That’s quite a remarkable scoring rate for a player ranked well outside of the top 10 on most rankings.

Elgin R

Munny,

That said, there’s a very good chance the Oilers let Benning walk simply because they can’t find a trade for KRusty.

If Holland lets Benning walk it is a fireable offense. A competent RHD with 248 games of experience and always a + player is gold.

Holland should be able to trade KRusty if the Oilers retain 50% (750k) as the new team would have $4m of cap covered with only 750k of cash outlay.

Also trade Larsson, another RHD, for what you can get and that frees up another $4m in cap.

Munny

Harpers Hair:
Dale Hawerchuck has passed at 57.

Jesus, and the last they were giving us was good news.

RIP Ducky. Never got enough accolades when you played. Hopefully that changes on Gord’s team.

Ryan

leadfarmer: Jarvis

Am I the only one concerned that we’re already hearing Holloway rumblings?

I hope we don’t trade down with the Sens so that they can get Jarvis if he’s still on board and we end up selecting Holloway.

NHLe of 13.3 sticks out like a sore thumb on a 1st round pick.

Oddspell

Lowetide: Note: Euro pro players often have a low NHLE due to lower time on ice. I didn’t bold those players.

Is Peterka not a Euro pro playing in the DEL? Or is this old enough to be using his 2018-19 data?

Also, a player I fancy a lot is Ridley Grieg. Not much more of a reach than Holloway, any thoughts on him?

Darth Tu

Ryan: Am I the only one concerned that we’re already hearing Holloway rumblings?

I hope we don’t trade down with the Sens so that they can get Jarvis if he’s still on board and we end up selecting Holloway.

NHLe of 13.3 sticks out like a sore thumb on a 1st round pick.

Unless it’s some sort of bananas fantasy land trade of Russell for a 2nd and we take Jarvis in that round. That make sit almost OK.

Obviously I say this firmly tongue in cheek.

Tragikomix

Darth Tu,

Holland drafted Michael Rasmussen in 2017.

Munny

Elgin R: Holland should be able to trade KRusty if the Oilers retain 50% (750k) as the new team would have $4m of cap covered with only 750k of cash outlay

This trade is only there if there’s a dance partner. Should Holland be fired for having no one who will dance a jig with him?

Since everyone is rushing to the exits at the same time, the teams with cap space can pick and choose which cap dump they want to pick up, and possibly charge a premium if they get a team like the Oilers that is really desperate to open up room.

The simpler thing to do is let Benning walk. And it might be the only thing.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

I support trading down from 14 to around 20 and a pick (the highest we can get) and grabbing whoever of Bourque, Reichel, Mysak, or Zary falls. Hell, add Grieg to the list if we’re in the mid-20s. Then aim for Robins with the pick we added.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Munny,

Our cap problem isn’t so bad that freeing up the 1.1mil in difference between Bouchard and Benning’s next contract should be the closest thing we can do. I’d sooner buyout Neal and/or walk away from AA than walk away from Benning.

Munny

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
Munny,

Our cap problem isn’t so bad that freeing up the 1.1mil in difference between Bouchard and Benning’s next contract should be the closest thing we can do. I’d sooner buyout Neal and/or walk away from AA than walk away from Benning.

We begin the off-season already $2mill over the cap with the same roster. That’s with cheap options like Sheahan, Ennis etc. So yes, pretty damn dire.

This is not about what we would do, but the org. The evidence to me points to the Oilers choosing Russell over Benning.

Buying out Neal will be the last option on the table if Holly can’t find another path out. I think for you, personally, this is the first option.

They like him and clearly want him in the room for another year, and the buyout is far more onerous now than if we were to wait a year or two. Holly will attempt to trade Russell first, then make decisions on RFAs AA and Benning, and then we’ll see.

Would you buyout Neal just so you can renew Benning? Because that is all the move allows you to do… get cap compliant and extend Benning (assuming AA is QOed and signed).

John Chambers

What do folks think of Tukka Rask as trade target? Can he re-join that room?

Oilers trade Koskinen, JP, and the 2021 1st … maybe Samorukov too?

If you can upgrade to an elite goalie on a good contract I think you make that happen.

godot10

Should the Oilers offersheet Anthony Cirelli?

godot10

John Chambers:
What do folks think of Tukka Rask as trade target? Can he re-join that room?

Oilers trade Koskinen, JP, and the 2021 1st … maybe Samorukov too?

If you can upgrade to an elite goalie on a good contract I think you make that happen.

Tuukku Rask has contemplated retirement. He is not a good bet. He costs $7 million and then is a UFA. If Boston were to give him to the OIlers as a cap dump for a late draft pick, sure. For a real asset, no.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Bless you LT for your soft spot for MacT…

– He was, by any measure, an awful GM, that on merit ought to have fired many years before he was

– A B.S.’er, way out of his depth, buying what another B.S’er, way out of his depth as skype replacement coach.

– MacT might have been a good GM if he put in the work, and got the job on merit. Dallas, he’s grinded it out for many years, after his 1st experience and deserves his 2nd coaching chance

– I long surmised MacT wasn’t employable as an executive on any other team than the Oilers

– He was great on TV though.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

Munny,

No, I would buyout Neal as it provides greater cap space to upgrade the rest of our roster while also not downgrading our D depth. For context, I believe Neal is a net negative to the team so this makes the decision pretty easy.

I think I see one area where our frames are differing: my response was intended to the statement where you specifically state that “(letting Benning walk) might be the only option”. I disagree that that’s the case even if Holland may think that to be the case. I don’t tend to try to prognosticate on what I think the current Oilers GM of the time will do since I often find it gets depressing. The ineptitude of the past decade+ has caused this.

The way I view it is we have our baseline of 10.1mil in cap space in order to re-sign and upgrade. Around 2.5 x 2 for Bear, 2mil for Benning, 2mil for a backup. That’s ~6.5mil used and puts us at 11F and 7D on the roster and our 3C and McDavid LW spots effectively open. Not likely enough money and I don’t think that 1.1mil from not signing Benning would be enough, either.

As such, adding the extra 3.8mil from Neal makes that around 7mil which- alongside a near-cap neutral Russell or Larsson for a F trade- ought to be enough to make improvements. Not the ideal improvements, but a step or two forward.

Todd Macallan

godot10:
Should the Oilers offersheet Anthony Cirelli?

I love him as a player, ideal to fill the 3c hole. For what he would require to sign I fear the Oilers do not have enough draft picks to use as compensation next year.

Jaxon

GordieHoweHatTrick: Canes with a heartbreaker last night as a result of the Boston Blitzkrieg. Some comfort in knowing the Oil and Laughs aren’t the only teams to choke hard in the 3 period this year. Maybe the Canes will learn from it, they are a rather young and talented team that is on the rise out east. I think they will take Askarov. I don’t know what the G pipeline is, but it is probably the largest hole in the plan to get a solid top 6, 3C, top 4 and G.

The Canes could use a good goalie, but their farm system isn’t bereft of talent. In the ‘best drafted prospect goalies’ lists I looked at Kochetkov was #9, #14, #19, and Nedeljkovic was #9, #38, and an Honourable Mention (for a top 10), and Makiniemi was #29. Those #9s look pretty good. In comparison the Oilers had Rodrigue #30, #48; Skinner #34, #41; Konovalov #59; Starrett #49. Ouch.
The Canes still have Mrazek as their starter. He’s okay, and he has been quite good in the past. at 23 he very much looked like the goalie of the future for them. 54GP, 921SV% followed by 50GP and 901SV% the following year. in 2018-19 he was 40GP, .914, which is solid, he dropped a bit this year again with 40GP and a .905SV%. 4GP in the playoffs this year and a .930SV%. He’s only 28. Signed for 1 more season at $3.125M. I think they’re in decent shape in net. Fingers crossed that Askarov slips to #14.

Munny

godot10:
Should the Oilers offersheet Anthony Cirelli?

That should be explored.

Munny

Todd Macallan: For what he would require to sign I fear the Oilers do not have enough draft picks to use as compensation next year.

Good point. I’m about to head out the door so can’t really look into it. Will check back on my phone in a few hours and see what people have to say.

godot10

Todd Macallan: I love him as a player, ideal to fill the 3c hole. For what he would require to sign I fear the Oilers do not have enough draft picks to use as compensation next year.

The compensation for a 3-year contract between $5-$6 million dollars is a 1st and a 3rd after next season (if the Oilers opt to give the Flames the 3rd this year).

I’m thinking offer sheet him to play with McDavid (as a left wing, who can be the defensive conscience, and take a lot of faceoffs).

Nugent-Hopkins and Cirelli…tweedle dee and tweedle dum.

Granlund is a less complicated option. But one could really squeeze Tampa. Cirelli may be the closest thing to JT Miller this year…younger, less proven offensively, a rock defensively.

Tampa probably matches and then desparately tries to get one of their no trade contracts traded.

Options for a difference making winger for McDavid
1) Granlund
2) Cirelli

This is my top priority for the off-season. I make the cap work around this, doing what I have to do.

SwedishPoster

Philip Broberg on what looks like the top pairing with veteran Niclas Burström ahead of tomorrow’s first exhibition game for Skellefteå, he should certainly be within the top 4 5v5. Will be interesting to see where he slots in on special teams, since he arrived late I assume he has some catching up to do before getting PP time but he should be on the PK a fair bit.