The mind can play tricks on you, especially when advanced age comes to town. I remember the Oilers deploying Stan Weir and Ron Chipperfield at center early on, and then graduating to names like Matti Hagman and Laurie Boschman before landing on the Gretzky-Messier-Linseman-McClelland group that won Stanley in 1984. There were a bunch of auditions between 1979 and 1984 that I’d forgotten before looking at Leafs trades the other day. Oilers haven’t found a No. 3 center since Strome left for Manhattan. You know what? That Strome trade is less than two years old. Edmonton has tried Ryan Spooner, Sam Gagner, Jujhar Khaira, Gaetan Haas, Riley Sheahan and others since. I think Tippett believes in Khaira as No. 4 center. Are there any good options for No. 3 center?
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Lowetide: How close are the Oilers to deploying two formidable scoring lines?
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers find value picks among the 2020 NHL Draft’s impressive Russians?
- Lowetide: 10 free agent targets for the Oilers this offseason
- Lowetide: What if the Oilers went scorched earth in front of 2020 free agency?
- Lowetide: Examining Matt Benning’s future with the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Unqualified RFAs could be top offseason targets for the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Legendary Oilers PA announcer Mark Lewis discusses his temporary comeback
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s bet on Andreas Athanasiou and how Oilers will proceed
- Lowetide: Lessons learned from the ghosts of Oilers’ draft weekends past
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We’ll learn and grow from it’: Connor McDavid’s tune different compared to last year
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Who stays? Who goes? The most likely players to stay with and leave the Oilers
- Lowetide: A rational approach for the Oilers at the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What’s holding back the Oilers? Superstars’ defence and team’s depth under focus
ROSTER NO. 1
I like to try these ideas out and see how they shine. CapFriendly’s roster game is great fun, usually end up making some ridiculously favourable trades just to get where I want to go. In this case, I bought out James Neal, traded Kris Russell to Winnipeg for Mason Appleton, dealt Jesse Puljujarvi and Alex Chiasson to Florida for Henrik Borgström and Lucas Wallmark, while signing Mike Hoffman, Jesper Fast and Anton Khudobin. I have $1,338,001 in cap room.
Is this realistic? Hell no! I wanted to point out what I see as the vital acquisitions over the next year or so: A two-way winger for McDavid’s line, a scoring winger for McDavid’s line, a third-line center and a 1B goalie. That’s a lot, and cap is an issue, thus offloading of Kris Russell. So, when you need Hoffman, Fast, Khudobin and Wallmark and can’t afford them, what do you do?
ROSTER NO. 2
This is a far more long-term approach, signing Bear to a long contract and going short term and inexpensive everywhere else. I made a couple of trades: Kris Russell and Dmitri Samorukov to the Winnipeg Jets for Adam Lowry and Mikhail Berdin. Lowry plays tough minutes but did struggle in 2019-20 and has just one year left on his deal. He also had a poor offensive year but averages 25 points per 82 games. I also dealt Matt Benning to Florida for goalie Chris Driedger, who has been posting good numbers for the last two seasons. A UFA in one year, he and Berdin are stop-gap measures who didn’t cost a lot. Both could play. Signing Athanasiou and Ennis also fits the ‘safe mode’ feel of this group.
QUESTION
What is your preference? Bold moves in a time of uncertainty or a quiet offseason with small tweaks?
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy day gets started at 10 on TSN1260. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast will guide us through the Saturday hockey broadcasts. How should the networks handle the re-start of the playoffs? Matt Iwanyk pops in at 11 for point-counterpoint, we’ll talk Oilers, NFL and the Jays. We’ll also chat ‘Matt Cook Foundation’ 24-hour game that starts tonight at 6! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
You’re knocking it out of the park, JP.
No, McDavid won’t *always* outscore (I didn’t say that either btw).
But he was even without a ‘scoring’ or ‘two-way’ winger in 2020. He was also -2 with Draisaitl on the (full) season so it’s not clear where the issue lays.
Tippett breaking up the Drai line did make some sense, wasn’t trying to disagree. IMO the post-deadline group of forwards (bring back Ennis) should be able form 2 outscoring lines though. A defensive conscience who can contribute (like Fast) would be great but I’m not so sure a Hoffman or a run of the mill $3M winger is going to mesh/help any more than AA did so far (though I would still give him a chance to try to settle in, personally).
OK.
I think if you played games 2, 3, 4 over again ten times the Oilers win at least 2 of them more times than not.
I think they earned their luck, yes.
Sorry, you are right, 20GF and 20GA in 2020 at 5 on 5.
You help make the point above that “with nothing” McDavid was an even player and Tippett’s reasoning for needing a second line actually rings true. His method may be flawed but to say that McDavid will always to be a scoring line no matter who he plays with is true but to say its an outscoring line no matter what is not true. Tippett needed a 2nd line and he didn’t have one with McDavid in 2020 (they were winning with the Drai line and special teams).
While we are in fantasy land.. Here is my totally realistic 20-21 lineup.
Klefbom for Boeser (maybe Benning is a bit drunk)
Faksa for Khaira and a pick
Offload Chaisson for whatever
Buyout Neal
Bridge Bear (2.5)
AA to 1 year contract (2.5)
Sign Benning (2)
Sign Elliot and pray (2)
Sign Puljujarvi
Benson-McDavid-Boeser
Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Athanasiou-Faksa-Puljujarvi
Nygard-Haas-Archibald
Kassian
Nurse-Bear
Jones-Larsson
Russel-Benning
Lagesson-Bouchard
Koskinen
Elliot
Obviously a pipe dream. But I don’t think the values are too far off.
Bingo.
And he’s even better at gaining the zone and creating chances. Thank Gord for data.
I’m not even sure that would do it.
Nurse isn’t going anywhere. It would take a big offer from Dubas to make that happen; I don’t see it. The future D is Nurse/Jones/Broberg. Klefbom needs to stay until Broberg is ready.
McDavid was not a negative player in 2020.
Agreed he needs to cut down on GA, but he still broke even with “no” help in 2020.
The Oilers were pretty damn impressive up till the pandemic hit actually. Sheahan, Archbald, Khaira and P. Russell were the only regulars on the team worse than -1 at even strength (2020 regular season). Neal was 10GF-7GA in 13 games, as a for instance.
“Fix 3rd line” would be my #1 priority this off-season (that is, stop or curb the bleeding).
The entire team at 5v5 was -1 or better in 2020. Except for Sheahan (-11), P. Russell (-9, in 15 games), Archibald (-6), Khaira (-5). That sure looks like a place deserving some focus for improvement.
He actually completes outlet passes as the same rate as Heiskenen and better than Chabot (I shit you not).
I agree with this.
But since the coach won’t play Benning above 3rd pair trading him makes a lot of sense.
Replace him with a $1M veteran stopgap. Save $1M. Add a 3rd round pick via trade (whatever Benning is worth).
Bouchard still needs to take someone’s job.
(and as I’ve said before I think Benning could probably succeed on a 2nd pair, but Tippett’s actions have spoken very clearly so it’s kinda pointless to keep him).
As Holland said at the post-season media avail, the next step is for Bouchard to come and take someone’s job. Benning shouldn’t be moved to create a job for Bouch but potentially after Bouch has taken that job.
So you think the Oilers going from an even strength PDO of 999 during the season to 954 in the play-in was due to Chicago outworking the Oilers?
For 3rd line center we should be looking for a righted one. We are always exposed on PK on the right handed side.
You keep Benning on his relatively cheap contact. Bouchard is only blocked by Benning if he isn’t better than Benning. He’ll push Benning to the press box soon enough.
On that note, I encourage posters to read Gregor’s piece on zone entires and scoring chances (or least look at the first chart as it related to number of zone entire as well as number of scoring chances after zone entire).
https://oilersnation.com/2020/08/27/zone-entries-that-lead-to-shots-and-scoring-chances/
While I understand your logic the flaw in your argument as I see it is that if Benning is your third pairing right D how does Bouchard get the experience required to progress. The option is that he has to be able to play top four to make the NHL. If Benning is not capable to play top four the decision has to be made to move him. Berglund should be able to handle third pairing D by next year, as he will have had two years of top four D in Sweden. Benning is for all intents and purpose redundant. Third pairing right D should be Bouchard’s job to lose at training camp not forced to wait behind an experienced third pairing D. If Russel can be moved the combination of freed cap space of Benning and Russel should allow for an upgrade at forward. There are still a lot of moving parts. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I could forgive Darnell for skating end to end only to getting lost, subsequently turning the puck over in the corner, or after skating behind the net.
Behind the net.
I see what I did there…
If he could only make an outlet pass…
**but fewer relative to the impact compared to the other D on the Oilers.
I miss the edit button.
Nurse has the boxcars, the PuckIQ, and SportLogiq.
Like with Petry, the haters’ eyes deceive them because Nurse impacts the game like an elite defensemen, but because he isn’t elite, he makes a few more mistakes, but fewer if one measures it relative to the impact he makes on the game.
Nurse is an impact defensemen, though not an elite defensemen. He is a physical Jay Bouwmeester who will play at a high, but likely not elite level until his mid-thirties. The other point that is often missed is he obviates the need for a Roman Polak type. And durability and availability is underappreciated.
As the Oilers get better all around forwards, Nurse will actually become more effective.
Nurse is the most irreplaceable of the Oilers D at the moment.
We have three, bear, Jones and Bouchard
Why go hunting. Nurses numbers support
Keeping, he is young yet. Patience’s people, patients.. trade what.
Russell= low return, but doable. Go Dutch, goil.
I put
G
3C
W
I think the biggest incremental value in team points could be the result of increasing the G cap space a bit for next year. Something in the order of 3-4M to acquire new 1A/1B and based on performance objectives a Griess, Khudobin, and Raanta over the last ~4 years. For Griess the risk is “Trotz-effects”,, for Khudobin it is a potential bidding war (near or more than 4.5M prolly). For Raanta – the risk is really injury history. I also think it is in the realm of possibilities that there could be a hockey trade with Russell for Raanta, perhaps with some fine-tuning. They are similar cap hit. The Yotes would only have to pay 1.5M in real dollars, and we then have space on LD for the yutes and the Finnish Wall combo meal in G – both have demonstrated capacity/potential. It would bump the overall G budget up about 1.25-1.5 or so from last year I believe, when Smiths bonuses are included. But moving Russell adds the “equivalence” of 4M on the D cap budget that could be allocated as an increase to Bear and others….
For 3C I think it depends on the putative W are likely to be…there have been many intriguing lines put up around here lately…JP what forth is thy fate?
For a top 6 winger, primarily for Connor, It would be great to find a potential 1Y solution with a current roster member or affordable quality FA, there are a few options – Nygaard, Benson, Haas, Ennis.
I read alot about Benning and his skating – it not being good enough and a reason why he should be moved.
The NHL has become more and more of a “skating league”, that I acknowledge. At the same time, only half the league is made up of “plus skaters”, right?
At the end of the day, not having plus skating is only a major issue if he player is not effective and, game after game, year after year, Benning is effective.
Maybe he’s only effective as a 3RD but he is indeed effective.
Is he expensive for a 3RD? Maybe but not much given how effective he is.
That is not the place to look to cut cap – if a good deal is there, sure, make it but I don’t think its a primary place to look for cap relief, even with Bouchard knocking.
Very interesting. I wonder how the OIlers see it. I’m expecting little to happen again. We will see.
Well they are 4th and 8th in pp toi per game
The pp tends to skew it as we don’t have a second unit but even so I think they play too much and tend to run out of steam
Yes. Agreed. Oilers will win when they can play a more controlled game.
Awesome.
Protests have some relevance, real actions are actually what counts. Kudos to them.
Jason Gregor had a couple great articles on the Edmonton D over at Oilers Nation. Is a great read for parcing the value of Bear, Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson, Russell, and Benning. Nurse haters may not like it. I loved it.
They do take long shifts sometimes but I an anticipate those rankings are “all situations” and, given Nuge, McDavid and Drai play essentially the entire PP, I would think its a bit less egregious at evens (shift length).
I see this as Russell’s main weakness. He defends like he’s at Vimy Ridge, but a lot of that is because he can’t win battles because he’s so small for a D and is an average skater. He’s not terrible, but not good enough, lacks acceleration as I see it.
If you are significantly undersized in a position you have to be a plus skater, like Yama. That can look different ways, Yama isn’t blazing fast like Connor say, but the proof is seeing the effectiveness in getting the job done. Night in and out.
I believe he was injured in the Calgary game. As I recall he left the bench for a period of time before returning.
I agree with you on Lagesson.
Lets assume the AHL does not start concurrently with the NHL (which would SUCK). For sure, the NHL will need to have some sort of expanded roster or, as you say, taxi squad.
At the same time, I would think that somewhat normal rules would apply to the extra players – they would have to have not impact the cap and I would suggest that there would still be a 23-man active roster and any other player on the “extended roster” or “taxi squad” would have the same rules apply as if they were in the AHL (as far as cap relief, waiver clearing requirements, etc.).
Just how I’ve been thinking it would work – could totally be wrong.
Either way, Kris Russell being move will remove this issue with Willie.
I think some of it is because they have to take chances offensively because if they don’t score who will
Both the center-man and the d-man have net front responsibilities.
A d-man leaving the an opposition player alone in the net front to go walkabout and puck chase – I don’t think that’s in any system.
Historic, but pointless, until the old political parties are obliterated.
The centre plays a large role in that.
The Oilers when playing well are making short passes and supporting each other.
When they aren’t they are too far apart for anyone to have an outlet.
Connor and Leon cheat on D because they have the talent to beat other players so try to do it all themselves instead of playing the system and using teammates, they play too much, and are responsible for the bulk of 5v5 scoring again leading to trying to do too much.
That leaves the D, some of who aren’t that consistent at reads, with no safe and easy pass.
20 minutes a night for those 2 means 2/3rds of the game is covered by elite talent. The third and fourth lines being able to handle 20 minutes effectively between them changes everything.
It also improves goaler performance. When the Oilers and all teams limit HDSC the tenders look great, when they don’t they look bad, like every team.
There might be some fallout from moving away from players limited in the game as it is today, but very soon it would be an improvement.
So, if the Oilers aren’t contenders next year, which they aren’t likely to be without a fortuitous run, prune hard so the thing can grow faster.
Out for me are Russell, Chiasson, Smith, Neal if possible, maybe a Klef or Nurse for a haul, Benning bcs skating and a lack of coach trust.
Kassian isn’t well liked here, but the league still referees that his job description is important.
If a goon like Reaves starts running around there has to be someone that is a viable opponent to have a word. Kassian isn’t in that weight class, but is a junkyard dog and everyone knows it.
He also, like most players, is streaky, but can be an offensive contributor. He has skill, he just can’t put it all together over time.
He’s also a plus skater, and for me that is really important, after watching cement bladed skaters chasing the play for too many years.
I’d rather have Haas playing RW and not scoring enough than Chiasson, because he can pressure with speed forecheck, and given reps would IMO soon be a far better help.
So much here the mirrors what I’ve be stating:
1) Agree on AA – Holland just needs to ensure it gets done before the QO period to take away the arbitration risk. I am willing to take a $3M risk on him (hopefully less but OK with $3M). I’m going to disregard his play as an Oiler as a simple extension of his season with Detroit and a one off. I’m not expected 30 goal but he was over 1.8 P/60 in the four years prior (once over 2.0).
I don’t know if he’ll mesh with Connor or Leon but the puck transporter of a skilled 3rd line has value.
2) Agree on Neal unless there truly is an immediate use of the cap space that is likely to take the team to a higher tier/level. If Neal puts up 20 goals again, 5 on 5 or PP, he may actually be tradeable next off-season with 50% retained – only 2 years X $2.75M may not look bad.
3) Russell is a no-brainer – just not sure if it can be done and I think a bad contract with only one year left will be coming back – hopefully that fills (potentially) the 3C or back-up goalie.
4) I’ve posted recently about Benson getting a legit shot at the top 6 – he should have every opportunity to battle with AA, Nygard, etc. for the open top 6LW spot – he has the pedigree, the smarts, the skill, the IQ and the work ethic. It could work out wonderfully
5) Agree on Chiasson. I see/hope Puljujarvi replacing Chiasson on the roster (for cap savings). Benson potentially replacing AA (notwithstanding #1 above).
6) I don’t think Kassian is tradeable right now, not with the current financial landscape and his poor play for all of 2020. That contract is currently Holland’s one “big mistake”.
7) I haven on the Aaron Dell train for weeks now.
I think McDavid’s style lends itself to fast breaks offensively and to jailbreaks the other way. I think both 97 and 29 are young centers and make mistakes defensively. That’s not unusual. That’s why Horcoff was such a revelation, he was a good coverage center by about 24.
Connor and Drai are first and third in forward time on ice per game played for forwards in the league and play just over a minute per shift 1st and 2nd in league for longest shifts (Nuge is 4th)
This is why having a legit 3rd line is key
Need to lower their time on ice but also if you are playing them that much need to shorten their shifts
I don’t disagree – Nuge should stay with Drai.
I was just pointing out that the player you described was Nuge.
As far as needing a 2-way winger, McDavid does need this more than Drai – Drai has shown the ability to be high end defensively – I’m not talking about “back-checking”, a pet peeve of mine is when people equate good back-checking with good defence. I’m talking about Drai’s ability to recognize in the defensive zone, to battle on the boards and in the high slot and to help break cycles.
We’ve seen him be very good defensively when he’s not exhausted and when he’s engaged.
Sammy is indeed a big physical, defence first player who can skate and move the puck – aggressive defender including defending the zone entry and the gap.
I see some of the comparison there but I think Sammy has a higher skill-set with his skating and ability to move the puck – we’ll see if he “makes it”.
This, 100% this.
Dave Tippett gets so much grief for his response when asked about breaking up (or not putting back together the Nuge/Drai/Yamamoto line) – along the lines of “needing two lines to win”.
People spew vitriol on the premise that McDavid will be a second line no matter who he plays with.
100%, that line will score goals no matter who he plays with (within reason) but its been shown that, his line-mates matter as far as actually scoring more goals than the other team.
McDavid was a negative goal differential player in 2020 – think about that – the Oilers were losing when McDavid was on the ice at evens. That is egregious.
They were winning in 2020 but, when McDavid was healthy, they were winning because of the Drai line and the special teams.
Agreed. What the NBA is doing is historic, led by the NBA players.
Larsson wasn’t right in the Chicago series. That first game was the worst I recall him playing for the Oilers. Klefbom was also poor, Nurse-Bear played better in game one but had their moments of wobble too.
With all of that, and understanding many of the forwards weren’t in playoff mode, for me the goaltending was the primary issue.
Feel free to delete if too political but athletes usually don’t cause much change but opening arenas as polling places is fairly significant
https://www.npr.org/sections/live-updates-protests-for-racial-justice/2020/08/28/907101601/nba-agrees-to-use-arenas-as-polling-places-in-deal-to-resume-playoffs
Way too simplistic and black and white.
The above summary was indeed part of the problem but so was the “team defence” including the individual play of defenders – (a) losing battles on the boars below the Oilers red line, (b) not recognizing the danger player or, if in position, not tying up stick or battling, (c) going walkabout and leaving the danger zone to puck chase below the redline.
The forwards and the D were losing as a team – great bonding I guess!!!
I generally agree.
Did the Oilers have less “puck-luck”? Sure, I guess I would agree but I would say that Hawks earned that “puck-luck” with their strategy of working hard on the boards in the Oilers zone (i.e winning puck battles) and pucks to the net with traffic in front.
The tip-ins by Hawk players, the own-goals (due to chasing and sprawling), etc. that was caused by the Hawks earning that puck-luck combined with the Oilers (a) not getting in the shooting lanes, (b) not protecting the low and high slot (i.e. lettting the Hawks stand there with their sticks free), (c) losing own-zone battles and (d) leaving the danger zone/player in the slot to go walkabout and puck chase.
The Oilers played poorly and didn’t engage in the tough jobs that create “puck-luck”.
He will still have value as a veteran presence. With an enticement be it a draft choice or player the team can manage to give themselves cap space. This is also low risk for the Krackan as his contract will have short term left. To move him will require value added but this should be less onerous than the alternatives.
That was my thought as well,especially given the possibility of an abbreviated season. I still believe that there may not be a 20/21 season and what we see is a reset to October start for a 21/22 season. This may in my opinion see a reduction of teams and realignment of divisions.