Start as You Mean to Go

We’re all waiting for Ken Holland to make his moves this fall, and now that we’re close I sense several urgent trains of thought among posters here at Lowetide and comments elsewhere. From ‘go now!’ to ‘keep your powder dry’ there’s no limit to the range or degree of passion surrounding the Oilers.

What is different, and we can’t know until we get to the other side, is Ken Holland. Not really. He arrived last spring to a clock that was running out and little in the way of cap. I thought he did a great job, wrote about it, gave him a B- and many of you thought I was too harsh in my grades.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

Holland’s 2020

Bob Nicholson spoke to Bob Stauffer just before the weekend, and said Holland would not make huge changes but would tinker. I did not hear the interview, but have seen enough quotes on twitter to trust that the main thrust is correct. This is exactly what I wrote for The Athletic early this week, so I’m well pleased to see logic and reason have come to town.

Some of you are not pleased, preferring instead a gigantic offseason with massive improvement. I think the Oilers could do more this offseason than last because there’s a little more money and Holland could trade a LHD and have enough on the roster to compete. That’s a new wrinkle. I don’t think trading the pick makes sense, although there is some intrigue in dealing down from No. 14 overall if there’s a first-round pick and another selection in the top 75.

I’m not on board with acquiring OEL and would prefer to see Andreas Athanasiou, Matt Benning and Jesse Puljujarvi retained. These are the kinds of talents Edmonton should be pursuing, early-to-mid 20’s with miles of track left in their game. Add picks, and use them on that long list of OHL forwards (all were 17 last year) who dominated the leaderboard in scoring last season. Here’s the list:

2020 OHL (age 17)

  1. Marco Rossi 56, 39-81-120 2.14
  2. Quinton Byfield 45, 32-50-82 1.82
  3. Cole Perfetti 62, 37-74-111 1.82
  4. Jack Quinn 62, 52-37-89 1.44
  5. Tyson Foerster 62, 36-44-80 1.29
  6. Jacob Perreault 57, 39-31-70 1.23
  7. Martin Chromiak 28, 11-22-33 1.18
  8. Jan Mysak 22, 15-10-25 1.14
  9. James Hardie 59, 34-29-63 1.07
  10. Tyler Tullio 62, 27-30-57 1.06
  11. Evan Vierling 43, 14-30-44 1.02
  12. Luke Evangelista 62, 23-38-61 0.984
  13. Zayde Wisdom 62, 29-30-59 0.952
  14. Brandon Coe 60, 25-32-57 0.950
  15. Rory Kerins 64, 30-29-59 0.922
  16. Jaromir Pytlik 56, 22-28-50 0.893
  17. Hayden Fowler 52, 20-22-42 0.808
  18. Logan Morrison 59, 23-22-45 0.763
  19. Austen Swankler 59, 18-27-45 0.763
  20. Reid Valade 52, 18-21-39 0.750
  21. Ethan Cardwell 63, 23-24-47 0.746
  22. Oliver Suni 43, 12-20-32 0.744
  23. Jean-Luc Foudy 59, 15-28-43 0.729

I’d add a couple of fifth-round picks and grab two stragglers from that group, that’s a damned good idea to my way of thinking.

EXPECTATIONS

I think it’s silly to suggest Holland has little to use in trade this summer, there are some nice things that should have value on the open market and he does have some extra coin compared to a year ago. That said, if the limits of his wares means Edmonton is unable to acquire OEL, then I hear music!

Edmonton’s veteran leaders are already here, their names are Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson. Their names are Mikko Koskinen and James Neal and Alex Chiasson. Their names are Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

Please don’t let your rage over the Chicago series send you in a bad direction. Don’t land on ‘they don’t know how to win’ or ‘they need a leader with a bunch of Stanleys like Bryan Trottier when he went to Pittsburgh’ or some other lost road. Please land on “it’s the goalie, stupid” or “they need three more players, dummy!” because man that’s a better way.

You want to see growth, real growth that has sustain? You just saw it. It’s called Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones. Next year it might be called Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson, Ryan McLeod. The year after it might be called Philip Broberg, Ilya Konovalov and Raphael Lavoie. You want to build something that is going to last in this climate? You build it right, starting with the foundation. It’s there, man! Don’t go chasing big names. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. Woke up in the ditch.

Start as you mean to go.

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165 Responses to "Start as You Mean to Go"

  1. jp says:

    Nice post LT.

    Love that last paragraph.

  2. leadfarmer says:

    He’s not looking for huge changes but isn’t chasing OEL a huge change

  3. €√¥£€^$ says:

    leadfarmer:
    He’s not looking for huge changes but isn’t chasing OEL a huge change

    Leavins adds to the OEL smoke in his 9 thoughts.

    Article is here: https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/in-times-anything-but-normal-might-the-edmonton-oilers-off-season-not-be-9-things

    I think back to Tippett’s influence in the Neal and Smith acquisitions…

  4. Reja says:

    I’m sure Holland is cordial with more GM’s in the league than Pete,Craig and Steve combined and if a Impact player like Chris Pronger lands in our laps you scoop him up immediately before those assholes down south get within earshot.

  5. Reja says:

    €√¥£€^$: Leavins adds to the OEL smoke in his 9 thoughts.

    Article is here: https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/in-times-anything-but-normal-might-the-edmonton-oilers-off-season-not-be-9-things

    I think back to Tippett’s influence in the Neal and Smith acquisitions…

    Besides Canadians I wonder what the most number of top 6 D have been the same nationality. The Oilers could very well have 4-5 Swedes patrolling their blue line within a year

  6. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Tremendous start by Broberg, makes it very hard to temper expectations. He many not score for the next week and may not have a multi-point game again, but what a game!

    It’s exciting to see the young D, like Samorukov in the KHL excel in Europe early. Let’s hope they continue to excel and most importantly find consistency.

    Bouc, you’re up next!

  7. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Reja: Besides Canadians I wonder what the most number of top 6 D have been the same nationality. The Oilers could very well have 4-5 Swedes patrolling their blue line within a year

    And with the swirling rumours, perhaps 2 Finn’s in net.

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Hi All,

    Gonna have my Koivu post up later today and will spam the forum then.

    Have a poll up on now to help me decide between Turris, Sheahan (for context) or Soderberg.

    Vote if you want to influence: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1307694516292345859

  9. leadfarmer says:

    €√¥£€^$: And with the swirling rumours, perhaps 2 Finn’s in net.

    What rumor is this?

  10. leadfarmer says:

    How long before the owners start regretting capping escrow at 20%
    Judging by our very early fall covid numbers in Wisconsin this winter will not be pretty

  11. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    How long before the owners start regretting capping escrow at 20%
    Judging by our very early fall covid numbers in Wisconsin this winter will not be pretty

    If they don’t start the season, no regrets. I imagine there’s a tipping point, suspect the NHL knows the line in the sand.

  12. €√¥£€^$ says:

    leadfarmer: What rumor is this?

    CBJ’s interest in adding skill, Elliotte Friedman was mentioning Jesse to Bob Stauffer on Friday apparently.

    So perhaps JP or AA for Korpisalo….

  13. €√¥£€^$ says:

    €√¥£€^$: CBJ’s interest in adding skill, Elliotte Friedman was mentioning Jesse to Bob Stauffer on Friday apparently.

    So perhaps JP or AA for Korpisalo….

    Article is here:. https://oilersnation.com/2020/09/19/apparently-the-blue-jackets-are-interested-in-jesse-puljujarvi/

  14. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    *****WARNING SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Edmonton Oilers 3rd line Center search #6 Mikko Koivu

    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2020/09/edmonton-oilers-3rd-line-center-search_20.html

    *****END SPAM*****

  15. jp says:

    €√¥£€^$: Leavins adds to the OEL smoke in his 9 thoughts.

    Article is here: https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/in-times-anything-but-normal-might-the-edmonton-oilers-off-season-not-be-9-things

    I think back to Tippett’s influence in the Neal and Smith acquisitions…

    He also mentions retaining salary AND taking salary back in the trade. An OEL move starts to make sense in a big hurry if his salary moves down to the $6M-$7M range.

    Also, are we questioning whether Neal-Lucic was a good move?

  16. John Chambers says:

    €√¥£€^$: CBJ’s interest in adding skill, Elliotte Friedman was mentioning Jesse to Bob Stauffer on Friday apparently.

    So perhaps JP or AA for Korpisalo….

    Does anyone know much about the goalie situation in Columbus? Elvis has the superior numbers (and higher cap hit), but Korpisalo got the lion’s share of the playoff starts.

    Elvis looks like a potential true #1, but the Finns would appear to make a solid tandem.

  17. Reja says:

    €√¥£€^$: CBJ’s interest in adding skill, Elliotte Friedman was mentioning Jesse to Bob Stauffer on Friday apparently.

    So perhaps JP or AA for Korpisalo….

    I almost tripped running to make this trade if it’s for cry baby J.P. Korpisalo is the goods and with the 1 Russian maybe 2 in the pipeline we could be set well after Holland packs it in.

  18. jp says:

    €√¥£€^$: And with the swirling rumours, perhaps 2 Finn’s in net.

    It’s interesting, Korpisalo looks decent on the surface (.911 this season) but he actually has pretty poor numbers since his rookie season in 15-16.

    4 seasons since then his overall SV% is only .904 and he was under .900 the two seasons before this one. I dunno…

  19. Bag of Pucks says:

    I definitely agree with the pov that the Oilers are somewhere between massive renovation and cosmetic upgrades.

    Number one, despite Koskinen’s regular season play, I don’t view him as playoff proven or Cup contention caliber. I prefer a full upgrade here but at the very least, a solid 1B is needed. That and coach up Koski so he’s more than just a big guy with average fundamentals.

    Second, kill two birds with one stone. The Oil need a 3L RHC that can kill it on the dot, PK, and contribute offensively as a two way beast. They also need some vocal vet leadership on the bench. In other words, this team needs a Nazim Kadri type trade in the worst way.

    The X factor in all of this is the RNH contract. Holland needs that done in the offseason. If a breakup looks more likely, that becomes a significant trade chip that may spark a more definitive roster reorg.

    And please, spare me the pushy declarative hot takes that you absolutely know Nuge will resign here. Nobody knows this for certain, and the fervour of your wishful thinking doesn’t make it a reality. It is in entirely within the realm of possibility that the Oilers lose this player to free agency and any prudent offseason plan has to consider that possibility.

  20. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    How long before the owners start regretting capping escrow at 20%
    Judging by our very early fall covid numbers in Wisconsin this winter will not be pretty

    Remember the cash outlay for salaries next year was already low because players had moved actual salary from next year to other seasons because of the potential strike.

    They had to get the new collective agreement signed and the current season finished or the revenue loss would have been catastrophic. They have $500 million from Seattle. And they got a 10% deferral in addition to the 20% escrow.

    Plus, the NHL PA may eventually wave the 10% deferral when it causes intra PA problems in future years if league revenues do not return quickly.

    The 10% deferral was really “conditional escrow”. In the future, if revenues recover the players will choose to take this money. If revenues don’t recover, the players are likely to surrender this money.

    Bettman makes concessions to get the players to sign the new CBA, but he retained the ultimate hammer, a 50-50 revenue split over the medium to long term, and if he was too generous for next year, he gets to collect in the out years.

  21. slopitch says:

    Great last paragraph LT. Its fun to analyze and propose trades but it really is as simple as 1) upgrade 2G 2) upgrade 3C 3) ace the pick at #14. If they succeed on those 3 bets, Im confident 97 and 29 will lead us to success. Also extend 93 🙂

    Looking forward to the Koivu post WG!

  22. godot10 says:

    John Chambers: Does anyone know much about the goalie situation in Columbus? Elvis has the superior numbers (and higher cap hit), but Korpisalo got the lion’s share of the playoff starts.

    Elvis looks like a potential true #1, but the Finns would appear to make a solid tandem.

    Elvis got injured during the play-in or first round.

  23. pts2pndr says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I definitely agree with the pov that the Oilers are somewhere between massive renovation and cosmetic upgrades.

    Number one, despite Koskinen’s regular season play, I don’t view him as playoff proven or Cup contention caliber. I prefer a full upgrade here but at the very least, a solid 1B is needed. That and coach up Koski so he’s more than just a big guy with average fundamentals.

    Second, kill two birds with one stone. The Oil need a 3L RHC that can kill it on the dot, PK, and contribute offensively as a two way beast. They also need some vocal vet leadership on the bench. In other words, this team needs a Nazim Kadri type trade in the worst way.

    The X factor in all of this is the RNH contract. Holland needs that done in the offseason. If a breakup looks more likely, that becomes a significant trade chip that may spark a more definitive roster reorg.

    And please, spare me the pushy declarative hot takes that you absolutely know Nuge will resign here. Nobody knows this for certain, and the fervour of your wishful thinking doesn’t make it a reality. It is in entirely within the realm of possibility that the Oilers lose this player to free agency and any prudent offseason plan has to consider that possibility.

    If the money is close I believe that Nuge will re-sign with Edmonton. Holland will have those talks early so as to best plan his roster moving forward. Human nature is such that generally people stay with what they are comfortable with but having said that life has shown me there are very few things that are certain other than death and taxes.

  24. godot10 says:

    Holland is prepared to do little, and he is prepared to do a lot in the off-season.

    He is going to play his hand, as the cards get revealed.

  25. digger50 says:

    I think the message today should be delivered to Holland / Tippett.

    Because I absolutely believe they seen leadership issue last season
    I absolutely believe they would act on this if the situation presents
    Holland did have talks with Arizona on OEL
    I think after Holland gathering info and assessing the risk,
    Bob comes out and tempers expectations stating they will just be tuning the roster, no big moves.

    From my seat, Im okay with this. At least Holland is out looking and in the game. If things do not make sense and there is risk of moving backwards he passes. Once he sees what he can and cant do and at what price he starts working on goalies and 3rd line centers. I believe this is where hes at.

  26. pts2pndr says:

    On a very different subject but one that has been touched on which is leadership. LT. I think this might be an interesting but somewhat delicate subject to broach. Leadership has to start at the top if one is to have a successful organization. During the decade of darkness the main ingredient that I felt was lacking was leadership with bottoming out with combination of MacT, Dallas Eakins with Andrew Ference as team captain. I think our current group are a vast improvement but there is always room for improvement. To be a winning organization the leader(s) of each level have to do their part to set and or maintain an exemplary standard that shall be adhered to. This standard has to be communicated down from ownership and adhered to by all, no exceptions. In my many years of following the team this is one area that has been lacking. Assuming the rumour re a trade for OEL and some of the comments about certain players did come from a source in the organization that Individual should be found and employment or relationship with the team terminated immediately. To not do so is poor leadership and bad management. End of rant

  27. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Hi All,

    Gonna have my Koivu post up later today and will spam the forum then.

    Have a poll up on now to help me decide between Turris, Sheahan (for context)or Soderberg.

    Vote if you want to influence: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1307694516292345859

    Thanks WG. Koivu looks sweet, even before the “JP factor” (helping him get here and settle in). IT wouldn’t be a huge stretch to see the Oil offer him the ~3M they could have ear-marked for a true 3C.

    It will be good to see Sheahan added to your mix – glad to see that coming. Why can’t we have Haas too?? 🙂 You told me once…not enough games?? He seems the most likely “internal candidate”…anyway, I get it if you don’t want to include him…

  28. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    godot10: Remember the cash outlay for salaries next year was already low because players had moved actual salary from next year to other seasons because of the potential strike.

    They had to get the new collective agreement signed and the current season finished or the revenue loss would have been catastrophic. They have $500 million from Seattle.And they got a 10% deferral in addition to the 20% escrow.

    Plus, the NHL PA may eventually wave the 10% deferral when it causes intra PA problems in future years if league revenues do not return quickly.

    The 10% deferral was really “conditional escrow”.In the future, if revenues recover the players will choose to take this money.If revenues don’t recover, the players are likely to surrender this money.

    Bettman makes concessions to get the players to sign the new CBA, but he retained the ultimate hammer, a 50-50 revenue split over the medium to long term, and if he was too generous for next year, he gets to collect in the out years.

    Do the Kraken’s get a refund if there is no NHL in Fall 2021? 😉

  29. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    digger50:
    I think the message today should be delivered to Holland / Tippett.

    Because I absolutely believe they seen leadership issue last season
    I absolutely believe they would act on this if the situation presents
    Holland did have talks with Arizonaon OEL
    I think after Holland gathering info and assessing the risk,
    Bob comes out and tempers expectations stating they will just be tuning the roster, no big moves.

    From my seat, Im okay with this. At least Holland is out looking and in the game. If things do not make sense and there is risk of moving backwards he passes. Once he sees what he can and cant do and at what price he starts working on goalies and 3rd line centers. I believe this is where hes at.

    I agree with this thinking and LT’s Holland 2020 plan above = tinker.
    KH should of course be doing his due diligence checking in on all sorts of possibilities to get a better sense of what other GMs are thinking market value is in this unprecedented off-season….

  30. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    In terms of leadership, I also agree with our fearless leader here…that is there are leaders on the roster…they are still learning a bit but I think this last year will be the tipping point. Both McD and Drai are on-ice leaders, meaning they are going to try to lead by example more than by verbal in the dressing room. Judging by McD’s post series comments he is going to improve on some of the D-zone coverage. By the looks of Drai as a kid/serial killer (scowl posted yesterday), I think he has the potential to play the bad-cop in the dressing room, a la Moose.

  31. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    In terms of plans for next year…it would make some sense to try and start Mid-Jan (let players have Christmas holidays with family, then start the camps, etc), and have about 40-50 game season. There will have to be a Canadian Division cause the border will still be closed.

  32. MushedPeas says:

    After DoD never want to talk leadership injections ever again. omfg no. Get good players, keep good players. Leaders will emerge.

  33. hunter1909 says:

    pts2pndr: End of rant

    More like just the start lol

  34. Woogie63 says:

    Tinker this off season is reasonable

    Position Cluster/CURRENT grade/PROSPECT grade

    Top end forward/A/D
    Middle forward/C-/B
    Top end Defense/C/B
    Goaltending/C-/C
    ——————————–

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Matt Blumel with a shorthanded assist in the 3-2 win for Pardubice

    https://www.flashscore.ca/game/QLpdtBZl/#video

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    “I’m not on board with acquiring OEL and would prefer to see Andreas Athanasiou, Matt Benning and Jesse Puljujarvi retained. These are the kinds of talents Edmonton should be pursuing, early-to-mid 20’s with miles of track left in their game.”

    —————–

    I’m definitely not on board with acquiring OEL on the assumption that, in addition to creating cap room for him, Armstrong would be looking to get actual value back (i.e not materially decreasing value due to contract and recent regressed play).

    On AA, the acquisition cost should neither be here nor there – those picks are gone and they should have zero effect on Holland’s forward plan. The question needs to be if Ken Holland thinks that he can get more with $3M (apx) on the open market or with the walking around money in a trade than AA can provide the team. I think Holland is smart enough to look past a horrid season on generationally bad team with a “meh” 13 games on the Oilers split with 5 months in between. That recent year doesn’t mean nothing but it doesn’t discount the 4 straight good years (1.8 P/60 or above with middle six linemates). I think he’s worth the risk if Holland is confident that AA won’t be able to get a raise in arbitration.

    On Benning, we all know that I think he is value for $2M and I think its important to have more than 3 right shot defenders going in to the season (in particular if one is a sophomore and one a rookie). I think the Benning likes it in Edmonton and could be convinced for a lesser AAV for 2-3 years of term and that would be perfect for the team and expansion draft exposure requirements.

    I am all for Jesse Puljujarvi coming back if he is willing to sign for his QO or an non-material bump. He, in no way, has earned a $1.5M contract and, if he and Lehtto are digging in for that, as Gregor says they are, he can stay in Finland for the year, again.

    I would like to see Jesse signed and Chiasson moved – I think Alex can be moved fairly clean.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Internal growth is real and substantial – I don’t think the fan-base, as a whole, is used to it because its been a long long time since non elite prospects were drafted, developed and then impact the lineup.

    Jones, Bear and Bouchard taking over from Russell, Larsson and Benning (over time – its started, it will continue this year) makes this team more dynamic and better. That’s internal growth and it should be real and substantial.

    Konovaolov is mentioned and hopefully Yaroslav Lokomotiv can get healthy and back to playing games as he was rolling early and its very impressive for his young age – most of the top goalies in the KHL via stats are 30 plus (Askarov aside).

    If Konovalov can continue a very strong start, perhaps it can convince Holland to go with a one-year stop-gap goalie option – Aaron Dell or a bough-out Dybnyk or Stalock, for example.

    I think there is a decent chance that Konovalov could be a legit 1B to Mikko in 2021/22 and, depending on how that goes, maybe he is a legit starter when Mikko’s contract is up.

    I think that scenario may be pie in the sky but the 1B in 2021/22 is not – its FAR from a sure bet but its not out of the realm of reasonableness.

  38. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Interesting idea that just came to mind based out of recent Arizona discussions:

    Russell + AA for Grabner + Hinostroza

    Assuming both sides are intending to walk their RFAs, Edmonton could save Arizona 2.275mil dollars while gaining the benefit of exchanging the rights of their RFA for one that likely fits our needs better. Pulled these numbers earlier in the summer when I was looking at possible options for McDavid:

    W Hinostroza
    86pts in 190 games (69 EVP in 2363mins for 1.75 p/60)
    +2.54 relGF%
    +2.80 relxGF%
    42.9% Off. zone FO
    41.6% of TOI Vs Elites
    16-15 On-ice GF Vs Elites
    +0.08 relDFF% Vs Elites
    31.4% of TOI Vs Middle
    32-33 On-ice GF Vs Middle
    +5.53 relDFF% Vs Middle
    +0.61 relDFF% Vs All

    Further, we get to bolster our team speed w/ Grabner and shed 700k off the cap.

  39. Tarkus says:

    Corey Pronman
    @coreypronman
    ·
    58m
    KHL Summary 09/20

    2020 prospect Yaroslav Askarov stops 29/30. He has a .974 SV% in 3 KHL appearances this season.

    —————————

    At this rate, one wonders if he doesn’t go as early as #4 to Detroit. Given that Stevie Y made a positional reach pick last year with Seider, Askarov @ 4 is well within the realm of possibility.

    And even if Detroit picks someone else, there’s Ottawa next at #5, who likely will have already taken a forward (whoever’s left between Byfield and Stutzle) at #3 and could afford to roll the dice on Askarov.

    Even though there’s still two weeks to go before the draft–and Askarov could very well falter in that stretch–I’d peg his chances of being available at #14 at less than 10%.

  40. Eh Team says:

    leadfarmer: How long before the owners start regretting capping escrow at 20%
    Judging by our very early fall covid numbers in Wisconsin this winter will not be pretty

    Escrow is capped but so is the players share of revenues. So if the players get more than there % the next year, the owners will recoup the shortfall in future years. Expect to see a flat cap for awhile until the owners are made whole.

  41. JOFA says:

    Tarkus:
    Corey Pronman
    @coreypronman
    ·
    58m
    KHL Summary 09/20

    2020 prospect Yaroslav Askarov stops 29/30. He has a .974 SV% in 3 KHL appearances this season.

    —————————

    At this rate, one wonders if he doesn’t go as early as #4 to Detroit.Given that Stevie Y made a positional reach pick last year with Seider, Askarov @ 4 is well within the realm of possibility.

    And even if Detroit picks someone else, there’s Ottawa next at #5, who likely will have already taken a forward (whoever’s left between Byfield and Stutzle) at #3 and could afford to roll the dice on Askarov.

    Even though there’s still two weeks to go before the draft–and Askarov could very well falter in that stretch–I’d peg his chances of being available at #14 at less than 10%.

    Perfect. I don’t want him 🙂

  42. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Not on the twatter but I’d humbly propose to do Sheahan last so as to not influence the proceedings.

    Between the other two you can’t go wrong, hope to see posts for both.

    Less relevant, but would a 1-for-1 of Chiasson and Jordan Weal in MTL make sense to get a decent, known 4RC who could possibly move up for slumps or injury cover? We’d get to dump some cap and some redundancy between AC & Neal. Both are one year deals.

    Thanks for your work, it’s always thought provoking.

  43. pts2pndr says:

    Tarkus:
    Corey Pronman
    @coreypronman
    ·
    58m
    KHL Summary 09/20

    2020 prospect Yaroslav Askarov stops 29/30. He has a .974 SV% in 3 KHL appearances this season.

    —————————

    At this rate, one wonders if he doesn’t go as early as #4 to Detroit.Given that Stevie Y made a positional reach pick last year with Seider, Askarov @ 4 is well within the realm of possibility.

    And even if Detroit picks someone else, there’s Ottawa next at #5, who likely will have already taken a forward (whoever’s left between Byfield and Stutzle) at #3 and could afford to roll the dice on Askarov.

    Even though there’s still two weeks to go before the draft–and Askarov could very well falter in that stretch–I’d peg his chances of being available at #14 at less than 10%.

    Recency Bias is very probable in this case!

  44. Eh Team says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: In terms of plans for next year…it would make some sense to try and start Mid-Jan (let players have Christmas holidays with family, then start the camps, etc), and have about 40-50 game season. There will have to be a Canadian Division cause the border will still be closed.

    This seems the most probable outcome. And then playoffs back in the bubble. And if there is a short season, then players salaries are going to have to be prorated too.

  45. who says:

    jp: He also mentions retaining salary AND taking salary back in the trade. An OEL move starts to make sense in a big hurry if his salary moves down to the $6M-$7M range.

    Also, are we questioning whether Neal-Lucic was a good move?

    I’m not questioning it. Yet.
    If Neal is still here after the next off season, then it becomes a real head scratcher.

  46. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    As I understand, the border is not — and never has been — closed to business travel. I believe it was OP taking issue with some Rishaug tweets on this, perhaps he can chime in to clarify?

    Quarantine would be an issue, unless they did longer trips about a month long and/or allowed a modified cohort within a bubble. Not that that makes sense, but it could be an option.

  47. Reja says:

    I wonder if Armstrong has any history with Holland there seems to be a lot of smoke coming from the Coyotes and the Oilers. Usually where there’s this much smoke it plays out maybe our first is involved, OEL at the right price would stabilize our D for half a decade.

  48. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    To your final point, I have seen many trade proposals on CapFriendly rosters of Alex Chiasson for Jordan Weal of MTL. I might have time for that, on a 1-for-1 basis.

    They get some scoring, grit and leadership. And a francophone, to boot.

    We’d get a bit of salary cap relief, a RH centre with decent career shooting percentage and faceoff wins. A cursory glance at his fancies shows he doesn’t get his head kicked in against elite competition, though was deployed less-so last season in MTL compared to the rest of his career.

    Both are on one year deals.

  49. godot10 says:

    pts2pndr:
    On a very different subject but one that has been touched on which is leadership. LT. I think this might be an interesting but somewhat delicate subject to broach. Leadership has to start at the top if one is to have a successful organization. During the decade of darkness the main ingredient that I felt was lacking was leadership with bottoming out with combination of MacT, Dallas Eakins with Andrew Ference as team captain. I think our current group are a vast improvement but there is always room for improvement. To be a winning organization the leader(s) of each level have to do their part to set and or maintain an exemplary standard that shall be adhered to. This standard has to be communicated down from ownership and adhered to by all, no exceptions. In my many years of following the team this is one area that has been lacking. Assuming the rumour re a trade for OEL and some of the comments about certain players did come from a source in the organization that Individual should be found and employment or relationship with the team terminated immediately. To not do so is poor leadership and bad management. End of rant

    Do you mean the comments about Rieder’s inability to score a goal the previous season? That guy is still here.

  50. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    I would 100% support a Chiasson for Weal deal. Really equips us to run a quality softer minute 4th line with some skill. Running a line of Nygard-Weal-Neal behind Grabner-Larsson-Archibald.

  51. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Could be an intriguing option.

    Couple thoughts come to mind.

    Considering the age and relative potential value of VH to ARI (pending his next contract ask) are we sure they’d want to trade him without being enticed beyond cash savings in the proposed 1-for-1?

    Finally, I recall RNH and VH getting into a Donnybrook when VH played for CHI. It would probably be a classy move on Old Dutch’s part to run it past the Nuge to ensure there’s no bad blood.

  52. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    The deal is assuming based on both sides intending to walk their current RFAs. I don’t have the knowledge to know if that’s the plan but, given their intent to save money, he strikes me as a pretty easy way to save 900k in their bottom-6.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    He’s not looking for huge changes but isn’t chasing OEL a huge change

    The speculation is that he’s inquired, nothing more.

    I think its a large leap to say he’s chasing OEL.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    Tremendous start by Broberg, makes it very hard to temper expectations.He many not score for the next week and may not have a multi-point game again, but what a game!

    It’s exciting to see the young D, like Samorukov in the KHL excel in Europe early.Let’s hope they continue to excel and most importantly find consistency.

    Bouc, you’re up next!

    We all know the new plan now:

    – Broberg lights up the SHL until mid-December
    – Broberg stars for Team Sweden in Edmonton at the World Juniors
    – NHL camp stars in early January
    – Given Broberg is in Edmonton, he attends Oilers training camp
    – Broberg’s calls a moving company to “pack his shit” as he now lives in Edmonton

  55. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    That bottom six is like found money.

    Having the option to spot in Haas based on opponent/injury/slumps would be a nice luxury before dipping into recalls.

    Depending on how Weal’s backhand is, I’d probably slot Neal in on his natural left wing and Haas on the right or Nygard.

    Neal – Weal – Nygard
    JJ – Weal – Haas/Neal
    Nygard – Weal – Haas could also be a real pain in the ass by pushing the tempo on forecheck, don’t know how much they’d actually cash-in though.

  56. godot10 says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    In terms of plans for next year…it would make some sense to try and start Mid-Jan (let players have Christmas holidays with family, then start the camps, etc), and have about 40-50 game season. There will have to be a Canadian Division cause the border will still be closed.

    I think the NFL is going to show that if you test everyday, that you can play a full season without fans at a minimum. They will lose too much money if they don’t play a full season.

    If rapid point-of-site screening becomes widely available by then (it is nuts that the FDA and Health Canada and big pharma are slow walking these tests, making the perfect the enemy of the very good…rapidtests.org), one can probably even have some fans in the building.

  57. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    It’s certainly a strong option, and both teams get a win so there’s the basis for a good deal to be had.

    Given some time I might try to come up with a targeted list of RFAs to consider as targets.

  58. godot10 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    GordieHoweHatTrick,

    As I understand, the border is not — and never has been — closed to business travel.I believe it was OP taking issue with some Rishaug tweets on this, perhaps he can chime in to clarify?

    Quarantine would be an issue, unless they did longer trips about a month long and/or allowed a modified cohort within a bubble.Not that that makes sense, but it could be an option.

    Hockey, like baseball, isn’t “essential” business travel, like transporting food.

  59. Material Elvis says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    In terms of plans for next year…it would make some sense to try and start Mid-Jan (let players have Christmas holidays with family, then start the camps, etc), and have about 40-50 game season. There will have to be a Canadian Division cause the border will still be closed.

    It will be interesting to see if they even start the season if there are no fans allowed in the building. Given that a vaccine won’t be ready for wide scale inoculation until spring or summer, I really don’t see fans until the 2021-22 season.

  60. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Nygard would be a good fit there, but it’s worth mentioning that Khaira is still there and Tippett likes him at C. Given his weakness is faceoffs, Weal could help mitigate that by taking the right side FOs. Further, adding Weal to that line would add a needed playmaking element.

    I 100% agree that it’d open up a great number of possibilities for setting up different fits. Whether it’s Nygard, Khaira, or Haas tagging in, they all bring something different to fit alongside Weal & Neal.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: He also mentions retaining salary AND taking salary back in the trade. An OEL move starts to make sense in a big hurry if his salary moves down to the $6M-$7M range.

    Also, are we questioning whether Neal-Lucic was a good move?

    Bruce has some thoughts on the Neal/Lucic trade…….

  62. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Goalie:

    Tristan Jarry
    Matt Murray
    Linus Ullmark
    Mackenzie Blackwood
    Alexandar Georgiev

    Forwards:

    Sam Reinhart (RC)
    Anthony Mantha (LW)
    André Burakovsky (LW)
    Max Domi (LC)
    Ryan Strome (RC)
    Chris Tierney (LC)
    Radek Faksa (LC)
    Connor Brown (RW)
    Josh Anderson (RW)
    Anthony Duclair (LW)
    Vinnie Hinostroza (RC)
    Jake Virtanen (RW)
    Chandler Stephenson (LC)
    Warren Foegele (LW)

    Defense:

    Brandon Montour (RD)
    MacKenzie Weegar (RD)

    I’ve omitted some of the glaringly obvious RFAs like Barzal, PLD or Kubalik.

    My favourite on the list is Warren Foegele after hearing VOR pump his tires for a couple years then seeing him as a force in the playoff run for CAR in 18/19. Doubt he isn’t retained, but I’d be inquiring.

  63. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    godot10,

    Ah. Makes sense. Thanks.

  64. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Agreed on Foegele but, as someone noted the other day, his QO is low as he’s coming off his ELC so he’s not likely one of the walked RFAs. Brown and both Dmen would definitely be of interest for me, but they’d likely be in HIGH demand around the league.

  65. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1938089

    The AGM including some of the moves discussed earlier in the thread. I’m really liking it!

  66. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Agreed.

    I’d like to know more about his style of play, because there’s potential to have Benson slide in and start earning more minutes. Especially if it lined up with your initial scenario of acquiring Grabner, it would be nice to see TB start to command minutes from a qualified veteran. That would allow a shift to a hard minutes fourth line and a soft-minutes skilled third line.

    JJ could end up as trade fodder either to recoup a mid-round draft pick or as a throw in on a trade to upgrade elsewhere if Weal were a fit.

  67. pts2pndr says:

    Reja:
    I wonder if Armstrong has any history with Holland there seems to be a lot of smoke coming from the Coyotes and the Oilers. Usually where there’s this much smoke it plays out maybe our first is involved, OEL at the right price would stabilize our D for half a decade.

    At his cap it may stabilize it for five years at the risk of hamstringing the team cap wise making it impossible to re-sign one or both of McDavid and Draisaitl. Possible short term gain for what appears to be almost definite long term pain. The right deal might make it more palatable as in Neal going the other way. If a first round draft choice goes the other way it should be the 21 first and lottery protected.

  68. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    I was gonna mention that, too! Benson-Weal-Neal would be the most skilled 4th line we’ve had for a decade, probably. A high-end playmaker, a hard working (shows up in every scouting report) RC with a lean toward playmaking and a veteran net front type with a track record of goals. Speed would likely be a concern for such a line, but every iteration that doesn’t feature both Haas and Nygard would have the same.

  69. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Thanks for the link, love me some AGM roster proposals. That proposal still allows for Bouchard to start in the minors and retain Benning at ~$1.75MM too. Would want more from JP but I’m still holding out hope for a return.

    ==============

    Speaking of prospects and roster construction, can someone on Twitter ping Wilde? He popped in once recently but haven’t otherwise heard from him since the start of the pandemic. Would love to know his thoughts on the draft.

  70. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Agreed. It’s like the bargain version of Jaxon’s suggestion to flank Haula with Benson and Neal.

    Speed is nice, but even if they’re league average and have a head for the game they can get to the right spots and be effective (Maroon, Neal, Chiasson, Tavares, Pavelski, Perry, among others come to mind).

  71. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Benning could be a good use of that cap space, but I think Tippett’s usage of him speaks to a lack of faith in him. As such, I’d sooner target a UFA who coach Tip can trust with more minutes and help balance the skillsets on the backend.

    I mention Viking, AB-native Soucy as a plausible option. Brings size and fared well (11-10 GF) on a 2 LD 3rd pairing and absolutely KILLED it (16-7 GF) in 262 minutes of top-4 minutes with Brodin. I haven’t checked his PuckIQ numbers yet, but his xGF and possession numbers suggest he was keeping his head above water.

  72. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Also worth noting that Soucy was pretty effective on the PK which would help free up Klefbom or Nurse from those hard minutes and allow them to focus their TOI on offense. I see it like:

    Klefbom spends less time PKing and less 5-on-5 time due to an improved 3rd pair
    Nurse/Bear sees a dip in 5-on-5 minutes due to an improved 3rd pair
    Jones gets more 5-on-5 time thanks to a better partner
    Soucy and Jones have both shown well in short term top-4 deployment (injury)

  73. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Finally felt like posting an AGM roster from CapFriendly. Have tooled around with it often over the years, but this is the first one I’ve published.

    Interested to hear the groups thoughts. Lots of one and two year deals to ride out the flat cap era. A couple deals based on rumour/scuttlebut because of the potential to solve some real roster issues for both teams involved. Mostly, this feels like a modest upgrade without gutting the team or treading water.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1922855

  74. pitlickdinner says:

    LT, it’s Ethan Cardwell, not Steve Cardwell. And he’s a sleeper pick!

  75. pitlickdinner says:

    Zayde Wisdom is also really underrated. Worried about Chromiak – he was zoomed.

  76. pitlickdinner says:

    One more underrated 17 year old in the O, but a D – Mitchell Smith. Youngest draft eligible player in the OHL.

  77. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    pitlickdinner,

    Just curious: since Wisdom and Chromiak were linemates w/ Wright, wouldn’t Wisdom have been zoomed, too?

  78. hunter1909 says:

    Dallas up 1-0 and if Tampa don’t storm back this is going to be a fast series ha ha.

    I used to hate the Stars. No more. Cool team, hope they win the cup.

  79. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Thanks for sharing! That would be the kind of bare minimum summer I could accept but wouldn’t exactly be pleased with. I think AA would fit better on that 3rd line and I wouldn’t trust Khaira to center a shutdown line, but beggars can’t always be choosers.

  80. Lowetide says:

    pitlickdinner:
    LT, it’s Ethan Cardwell, not Steve Cardwell. And he’s a sleeper pick!

    Lol. Steve Cardwell played for the Penguins and Fighting Saints and is apparently still rolling around in my brain. Thanks!

  81. Reja says:

    hunter1909:
    Dallas up 1-0 and if Tampa don’t storm back this is going to be a fast series ha ha.

    I used to hate the Stars. No more. Cool team, hope they win the cup.

    Benn and company need to get laid Big Bad Dallas will be even more physical in game two. The only answer Tampa has is paddy besides him they really have no assholes for trench warfare. If the Refs let them play the Bolts are done.

  82. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Rising talent, acquiring picks key to Oilers’ success at 2020 draft. If you don’t subscribe click on link for an incredible deal!

    https://theathletic.com/2079763/2020/09/20/lowetide-rising-talent-acquiring-picks-key-to-oilers-success-at-draft/

  83. pitlickdinner says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    100%, but Wisdom zoomed Chromiak too! i think Wisdom contributed a lot more than Chromiak.

  84. MrFancypantss says:

    Wish there was a player named Deal we could grab to roll a Weal – Deal – Neal line

  85. London Jon says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    That bottom six is like found money.

    Having the option to spot in Haas based on opponent/injury/slumps would be a nice luxury before dipping into recalls.

    Depending on how Weal’s backhand is, I’d probably slot Neal in on his natural left wing and Haas on the right or Nygard.

    Neal – Weal – Nygard
    JJ – Weal – Haas/Neal
    Nygard – Weal – Haas could also be a real pain in the ass by pushing the tempo on forecheck, don’t know how much they’d actually cash-in though.

    I like that third line – it would be Ny (nigh) on the Weal Deal

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Remember the cash outlay for salaries next year was already low because players had moved actual salary from next year to other seasons because of the potential strike.

    They had to get the new collective agreement signed and the current season finished or the revenue loss would have been catastrophic. They have $500 million from Seattle.And they got a 10% deferral in addition to the 20% escrow.

    Plus, the NHL PA may eventually wave the 10% deferral when it causes intra PA problems in future years if league revenues do not return quickly.

    The 10% deferral was really “conditional escrow”.In the future, if revenues recover the players will choose to take this money.If revenues don’t recover, the players are likely to surrender this money.

    Bettman makes concessions to get the players to sign the new CBA, but he retained the ultimate hammer, a 50-50 revenue split over the medium to long term, and if he was too generous for next year, he gets to collect in the out years.

    I can’t agree with the 10% deferral equating to “conditional escrow” as I don’t see the players agreeing to waive that payment. What about players who retire after next year and will just lose that 10%. Don’t see it happening.

    What i do agree with is the last paragraph.

    We know the cap will be flat at $81.5M but it very very well could be at $81.5M for 2, 3, 4, 5 years. How long will it take get get to $3.3B of HRR?

    —————-

    Upper Limit will remain at $81.5 Million until Preliminary
    HRR for the just completed League Year surpasses $3.3
    Billion.

    • For any League Year where Preliminary HRR is between
    $3.3 Billion and $4.8 Billion, the Upper Limit for the
    following League Year shall be between $81.5 Million and
    $82.5 Million on a pro rata basis (e.g., if Preliminary HRR
    is $4.05 Billion, the Upper Limit will be $82 Million).

    • Once Preliminary HRR for the immediately preceding
    League Year surpasses $4.8 Billion, the Upper Limit will
    increase by $1 Million per League Year until the Escrow
    Balance is paid off.

    • The parties can agree to increase the Upper Limit in
    excess of $1 Million in order to allow for a smoother
    transition into the ‘Lag’ formula.

  87. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can’t agree with the 10% deferral equating to “conditional escrow” as I don’t see the players agreeing to waive that payment. What about players who retire after next year and will just lose that 10%.Don’t see it happening.

    The NHL PA voluntarily waived their last paycheck for this season to make the burden fairer between current players with contracts, and players without contracts.

    If the 10% deferral creates a similar inequity, which is likely, the NHL PA will again voluntarily waive.

    They have done it once already. They are likely to do it again, to keep the PA united.

  88. pts2pndr says:

    MushedPeas:
    After DoD never want to talk leadership injections ever again. omfg no.Get good players, keep good players. Leaders will emerge.

    A few leadership courses sure wouldn’t hurt by what I have observed. They actually could be and or should be included as part of the initial training camp.

  89. Jaxon says:

    LEAGUE NAME Age and League Adjusted EV Primary Points
    OHL Quinton Byfield 42
    OHL Cole Perfetti 36
    OHL Marco Rossi 35
    QMJHL Alexis Lafreniere 34
    WHL Seth Jarvis 32
    USHL Sam Colangelo 28
    OHL Martin Chromiak 27
    OHL Tyler Tullio 26
    OHL Jacob Perreault 25
    QMJHL Mavrik Bourque 25
    OHL Rory Kerins 25
    Czech U20 Petr Hasek 25
    OHL Jack Quinn 24
    Finland U20 Veeti Miettinen 24
    USHL Daniil Gushchin 23
    OHL James Hardie 23
    Czech U20 Nico Geidl 22
    WHL Jack Finley 22
    OHL Reid Valade 22
    WHL Justin Sourdif 22
    OHL Luke Evangelista 22
    OHL Evan Vierling 22
    OHL Brandon Coe 22
    WHL Tristen Robins 22

    From most rankings I’ve read it looks like Rory Kerins will still be there at 75. Here also scored 25 ES Goals this season! And his scouting reports call him a responsible 200 foot player. He had the most goals (30) on a terrible Soo Greyhounds team. There is some concern about his skating but they said the same about Mark Stone so I’d gamble on this guy at 75.

    PS I think my USHL, Czezh-U20 and FinnU-20 equivalencies might be off. Does anybody have a good source for those?

    Byfield looks pretty impressive by this metric. In previous years, I was able to compare previous draft seasons, but when prospect stats went down I’ve had to rely on pick224, which is great but they don’t calculate 5-on-5 TOI or 5-on-5 primary points. Pick 224 only does ES points and they don’t calculate ESTOI, so they cannot be compared.

  90. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    The idea was small incremental moves to keep the core group together and add both at the fringes and by subtraction.

    I have to say, having been through so many roster configurations (perhaps I’ll post a few more) I don’t think the cap situation is near as dire as some, say the MSM, would have you believe. Unless one’s aim is big game hunting, which I’m not averse to with the proper target(s) but don’t see as strictly necessary for team growth/success.

    But I really don’t know what’s a realistic expectation for salary for most players outside our team and who’s willing to sign, so there are many unknowns versus known variables. Still a fun exercise.

  91. jp says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1938089

    The AGM including some of the moves discussed earlier in the thread. I’m really liking it!

    Hehe, uncontroversial. Well done. Solid ideas.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Thanks WG. Koivu looks sweet, even before the “JP factor” (helping him get here and settle in). IT wouldn’t be a huge stretch to see the Oil offer him the ~3M they could have ear-marked for a true 3C.

    It will be good to see Sheahan added to your mix – glad to see that coming. Why can’t we have Haas too?? You told me once…not enough games?? He seems the most likely “internal candidate”…anyway, I get it if you don’t want to include him…

    Whoa, $3M? For Mikko Koivu? Seriously?

    Don’t get me wrong, I think Mikko would be a solid addition but we are talking about a one-year deal in the $1.5M range I would think – as far as what he’s likely to bring on the ice.

    Now, of course, I don’t think he comes to Edmonton without an over-pay so, sure, maybe it takes $3M to get him to sign that deal but I wouldn’t think any Oiler fan would think that’s acceptable, would they?

    Maybe I’m way off here but that seems highly high.

  93. €√¥£€^$ says:

    jp: He also mentions retaining salary AND taking salary back in the trade. An OEL move starts to make sense in a big hurry if his salary moves down to the $6M-$7M range.

    Also, are we questioning whether Neal-Lucic was a good move?

    It would be great if OEL is brought on to have salary retained, but if not given the 7 year term then I would expect Az would also send a young player to Edm as part of any package rather than what we have heard.

    The Neal trade was a great move.

  94. €√¥£€^$ says:

    jp: It’s interesting, Korpisalo looks decent on the surface (.911 this season) but he actually has pretty poor numbers since his rookie season in 15-16.

    4 seasons since then his overall SV% is only .904 and he was under .900 the two seasons before this one. I dunno…

    It is almost glacial for tenders to develop. I think Korpi is rip and now would be an excellent time to snag him. AA for Korpisalo, I’d be all over that.

  95. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Anything more than $2MM/yr for Koivu and I’d look elsewhere, two year term… max.

  96. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    What are people’s thoughts on two potentially affordable and age appropriate RHD UFAs?

    Korbinian Holzer — small raise likely but potential value deal if not resigned in NSH

    Zach Bogosian — seems due a raise due to deployment and playoff run. :/

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eh Team: Escrow is capped but so is the players share of revenues.So if the players get more than there % the next year, the owners will recoup the shortfall in future years.Expect to see a flat cap for awhile until the owners are made whole.

    The flat cap may be here for a number of years but the MOU for the CBA has quantitive parameters – I posted them a bit earlier in the thread – it will start to go up with HRR reaches $330M.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Recency Bias is very probable in this case!

    No recency bias in the following scenarios:

    1) Broberg has a very strong first few months in the SHL, starts of Sweden at the World Juniors, stays for Oilers training camp as it is early January and never plays for Skelleftea again….

    2) Konovaolv continues to impress a super young goalie in the KHL for the next month, Holland continues to believe he is a real possibility for 1B with Mikko in 2021/22 and, accordingly, and smartly, does not over-spend on a 1B for this coming year and buys one-year of Aaron Dell for cheap (or a bought out Dubnyk or a Stalock).

    OK, scenario one is somewhat pie in the sky (can’t imagine him staying in Edmonton after the world juniors – lets not forget about the ELC slide) but scenario 2 is somewhat plausible to me.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    To your final point, I have seen many trade proposals on CapFriendly rosters of Alex Chiasson for Jordan Weal of MTL.I might have time for that, on a 1-for-1 basis.

    They get some scoring, grit and leadership.And a francophone, to boot.

    We’d get a bit of salary cap relief, a RH centre with decent career shooting percentage and faceoff wins.A cursory glance at his fancies shows he doesn’t get his head kicked in against elite competition, though was deployed less-so last season in MTL compared to the rest of his career.

    Both are on one year deals.

    I don’t hate it but I don’t know enough about Weal except that I don’t think he’s anything more than a 4C. I may prefer a mid-pick if the Habs would take the contract clean and potentially sign something a bit more material (or have $1M go to Jesse and use the other $1M on the goalie upgrade, for example)?

  100. €√¥£€^$ says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Thanks WG. Koivu looks sweet, even before the “JP factor” (helping him get here and settle in). IT wouldn’t be a huge stretch to see the Oil offer him the ~3M they could have ear-marked for a true 3C.

    It will be good to see Sheahan added to your mix – glad to see that coming. Why can’t we have Haas too?? You told me once…not enough games?? He seems the most likely “internal candidate”…anyway, I get it if you don’t want to include him…

    I wouldn’t want to sign Koivu for more than $1.5 million, despite his stellar metrics. The injury potential is high and he has made his money, so maybe he sees several opportunities in Edmonton, including Canada being a safe place, like Kurt Leavins mentioned in his “9 Things”‘ article. Hopefully the Wild wasn’t one of the teams staying in the “Sauna rooms” during the play-ins….

    I am also wondering if this is the year that the McDavid factor has influence on UFA’s.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Nygard would be a good fit there, but it’s worth mentioning that Khaira is still there and Tippett likes him at C. Given his weakness is faceoffs, Weal could help mitigate that by taking the right side FOs. Further, adding Weal to that line would add a needed playmaking element.

    I 100% agree that it’d open up a great number of possibilities for setting up different fits. Whether it’s Nygard, Khaira, or Haas tagging in, they all bring something different to fit alongside Weal & Neal.

    One small note – I agree, Tip likes Kharia at center (at least near the end of the regular season) but, when Ennis got hurt and Haas came in to the lineup, Khaira did get shifted to the wing and Haas lines up at center (and added a plus element from what I remember).

  102. €√¥£€^$ says:

    MrFancypantss:
    Wish there was a player named Deal we could grab to roll a Weal – Deal – Neal line

    This is the closest you can get in 2020-21

    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jeansebastien-dea

  103. BONE207 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****WARNING SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Edmonton Oilers 3rd line Center search #6 Mikko Koivu

    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2020/09/edmonton-oilers-3rd-line-center-search_20.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    F&ck Woodguy…who are you to decide whether Koivu gets a 7 but probably deserves an 8!!!
    Never thought we could get so excited over a 37 year old hockey player. We are truly damaged.
    Thanks for the work…🤣

  104. BONE207 says:

    jp: It’s interesting, Korpisalo looks decent on the surface (.911 this season) but he actually has pretty poor numbers since his rookie season in 15-16.

    4 seasons since then his overall SV% is only .904 and he was under .900 the two seasons before this one. I dunno…

    He was also in net that 1st game back after CONNOR ‘s injury. He’ll be forever famous for that.

  105. jp says:

    €√¥£€^$: It would be great if OEL is brought on to have salary retained, but if not given the 7 year term then I would expect Az would also send a young player to Edm as part of any package rather than what we have heard.

    The Neal trade was a great move.

    You’d hope, though that seems unlikely (as you say, contrary to what we’ve heard).

  106. jp says:

    €√¥£€^$: It is almost glacial for tenders to develop.I think Korpi is rip and now would be an excellent time to snag him. AA for Korpisalo, I’d be all over that.

    Yes that would make sense certainly. Though Korpisalo’s numbers suggest maybe tempering expectations. It doesn’t look to me like he’s a sure thing.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Agreed on Foegele but, as someone noted the other day, his QO is low as he’s coming off his ELC so he’s not likely one of the walked RFAs. Brown and both Dmen would definitely be of interest for me, but they’d likely be in HIGH demand around the league.

    I think that was me.

    I don’t see what the Canes would not qualify him unless they are worried about an arb award they can’t afford and, if that’s the case, I would think the same issue would apply for the Oilers.

  108. godot10 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    What are people’s thoughts on two potentially affordable and age appropriate RHD UFAs?

    Korbinian Holzer — small raise likely but potential value deal if not resigned in NSH

    Zach Bogosian — seems due a raise due to deployment and playoff run. :/

    One Adam Larsson is enough. How are two worse versions of him going to help.

    Hedman, McDonagh, and Sergachev can cover for the warts of Bogosian, Schenn, and Shattenkirk. Also, pretty much every forward on Tampa is a competent checker, and competent in their own end.

    Benning is a more than solid 3rd pairing D. Just sign him. Remember, the guy playing 3rd pairing right D in Edmonton has to carry Kris Russell in terms of puck movement out of the OIlers end.

    Players with warts playing a defined role in Tampa with the best talent and work ethic core in the NHL will look pretty good.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Also worth noting that Soucy was pretty effective on the PK which would help free up Klefbom or Nurse from those hard minutes and allow them to focus their TOI on offense. I see it like:

    Klefbom spends less time PKing and less 5-on-5 time due to an improved 3rd pair
    Nurse/Bear sees a dip in 5-on-5 minutes due to an improved 3rd pair
    Jones gets more 5-on-5 time thanks to a better partner
    Soucy and Jones have both shown well in short term top-4 deployment (injury)

    Is Soucy any better than Benning? I’m far from convinced of that and, given he shoots left, I think Benning is a better partner for Jones on the 3rd pairing.

    I fully acknowledge the lack of faith Tippett/Playfair showed Benning as far as at bats up the lineup but that doesn’t mean they won’t change their deployment strategy in that regard next year – its not like there is a year over year history of this – it was one season and it very well could be related to Benning coming back from multiple concussions – a year further removed from those and I don’t anticipate they would mitigate his ice time.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: The NHL PA voluntarily waived their last paycheck for this season to make the burden fairer between current players with contracts, and players without contracts.

    If the 10% deferral creates a similar inequity, which is likely, the NHL PA will again voluntarily waive.

    They have done it once already.They are likely to do it again, to keep the PA united.

    Current players waiving the right to receive a current paycheque – not the same as current players agreeing to waive prior comp due players that include those no longer in the league who are expecting that money.

  111. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OriginalPouzar: Whoa, $3M?For Mikko Koivu? Seriously?

    Don’t get me wrong, I think Mikko would be a solid addition but we are talking about a one-year deal in the $1.5M range I would think – as far as what he’s likely to bring on the ice.

    Now, of course, I don’t think he comes to Edmonton without an over-pay so, sure, maybe it takes $3M to get him to sign that deal but I wouldn’t think any Oiler fan would think that’s acceptable, would they?

    Maybe I’m way off here but that seems highly high.

    Wasn’t my estimate
    Go read the analysis

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Anything more than $2MM/yr for Koivu and I’d look elsewhere, two year term… max.

    Whoa, term to a player that will turn 38 very shortly in to the contract? I can’t get on board with anything that starts with a 2, either term or AAV.

    That’s what it would probably take but I sure wouldn’t pay up.

  113. €√¥£€^$ says:

    jp: Yes that would make sense certainly. Though Korpisalo’s numbers suggest maybe tempering expectations. It doesn’t look to me like he’s a sure thing.

    I didn’t get into it, but seems obvious that Korpi with Koski as his mentor could be incredible fruitful for the younger man. And if Koivu were to come and attract Granlund (with is 100% my own speculation, but I suspect they are close friends, but I have no insider info) also who knows if his brothers experience in Edm is helpful or hurtful, if anything…. Would a bunch of vet Finn teammates help Korpi, probably. He hasn’t really had that experience in North America.

  114. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    It’s a $750k cap gain for a RHC on a one year deal for a hard worker with some hands. Known to be a scorer at the WHL and AHL levels (all-star team selections). He doesn’t typically drown with 20-30% elite deployments from what I can tell (fair warning, I’m terrible at parsing advanced stats websites) but isn’t a burner either. Skating is average or better from the handful of highlight clips I’ve seen.

    To sum up: low risk move to add roster depth and cap room at the same time on a one year deal.

    I’d do it, even if I neither love nor dislike Chiasson. AC is duplicated by Neal, who’ll likely be easier to move (or *shudder* buy out) next year.

  115. €√¥£€^$ says:

    godot10: One Adam Larsson is enough.How are two worse versions of him going to help.

    Hedman, McDonagh, and Sergachev can cover for the warts of Bogosian, Schenn, and Shattenkirk.Also, pretty much every forward on Tampa is a competent checker, and competent in their own end.

    Benning is a more than solid 3rd pairing D.Just sign him.Remember, the guy playing 3rd pairing right D in Edmonton has to carry Kris Russell in terms of puck movement out of the OIlers end.

    Players with warts playing a defined role in Tampa with the best talent and work ethic core in the NHL will look pretty good.

    Benning will be moved, the coaches aren’t fans of his.

    This is the most important thing for a player.

  116. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****WARNING SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Edmonton Oilers 3rd line Center search #6 Mikko Koivu

    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2020/09/edmonton-oilers-3rd-line-center-search_20.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Holland should sign Mikko And promise JP he will staple him on Mikkos wing all season

  117. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    godot10,

    Right.

    One AL is enough. And I like Larsson.

    But *if say we could move him to TOR for Andersen and the VGK 2020 4th round pick, I’d do it. Then replace him in the middle of the d-corp with a guy like Bogosian or Holzer (or other).

    I fear Bogosian is going to be too expensive absent salary retention by TOR (which would negate a primary incentive for them to make the trade), and Holzer might be miscast in the role. Though I doubt he’s played with as good a partner as Nurse or Klefbom for long stints, and of course life is easier when you’re passing up to Connor or Leon.

    FWIW, I really noticed Holzer when he was playing against us with NSH so that neither invalidates nor refutes your turd polishing angle. Maybe he could be polished by our guys, is the gist.

  118. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Yeah, I’d prefer one year deals for anyone over 34 or so depending on the player and their history.

    Koivu has been a special player for a long time, perhaps he’s worth rolling the dice on is my point.

    I’d prefer a contract in the ballpark of 1x$1.75M but this isn’t NHL20 either.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$: I wouldn’t want to sign Koivu for more than $1.5 million, despite his stellar metrics.The injury potential is high and he has made his money, so maybe he sees several opportunities in Edmonton, including Canada being a safe place, like Kurt Leavins mentioned in his “9 Things”‘ article.Hopefully the Wild wasn’t one of the teams staying in the “Sauna rooms” during the play-ins….

    I am also wondering if this is the year that the McDavid factor has influence on UFA’s.

    To the last sentence – it will never be as big a factor to the majority as: money, winning, location desirability – in my opinion.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Wasn’t my estimate
    Go read the analysis

    I’ve read WG’s piece and will continue to be very much against giving term to a player that will be 38 shortly in to the contract nor anything close to $3M – advanced metrics notwithstanding.

  121. leadfarmer says:

    Koivu has slowed down so much
    Overall a terrible fit for a team that is trying to play a faster game
    At most a one year stop gap for 2 mil

  122. Ryan says:

    €√¥£€^$: Benning will be moved, the coaches aren’t fans of his.

    This is the most important thing for a player.

    100%

    During the regular season.

    All strengths toi/g.

    Benning. 13:13 which was 8th not including Green.

    Also, only Lagesson and Manning had a higher rate of on the fly starts.

    Play in round with an injured Larsson.

    10:40.

    Those are some long side burns.

    For comparison, Jones played 11:52.

    Though there is the Kraken issue…

  123. hunter1909 says:

    BONE207: F&ck Woodguy…who are you to decide whether Koivu gets a 7 but probably deserves an 8!!!
    Never thought we could get so excited over a 37 year old hockey player. We are truly damaged.
    Thanks for the work…

    Since when have you been appointed sheriff of who decides everything?

    At least you’re taking the time to read Woodguy’s writing/analysis, so that’s something lol

  124. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: One Adam Larsson is enough.

    Adam Larsson isn’t worth a Hart Trophy winning winger in any universe except the DoD one.

  125. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’ve read WG’s piece and will continue to be very much against giving term to a player that will be 38 shortly in to the contract nor anything close to $3M – advanced metrics notwithstanding.

    Hey bud
    I didn’t say anything about term either.
    Maybe it is hard to keep track of all your posts but don’t put words
    In people’s mouths. Not cool.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Yeah, I’d prefer one year deals for anyone over 34 or so depending on the player and their history.

    Koivu has been a special player for a long time, perhaps he’s worth rolling the dice on is my point.

    I’d prefer a contract in the ballpark of 1x$1.75M but this isn’t NHL20 either.

    Its not NHL20 but the Oilers have limited (at best) cap room and the expectation is for many UFAs to get squeezed and for there to be bargains out there.

    Koivu was 11th among Wild forwards in TOI/G at 5 on 5 and produced as 0.94 P/60.

    If he’s not willing to sign for one year at a fairly nominal rate (and I don’t expect he will), I would definitely not be in favor of digging on on a guy that is really likely more suited to 4C at this time.

  127. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Brian Burke just said last week on Bob’s Thursday show that every time he’s been A/GM on a Canadian team if a player has a seven-team NTC every Canadian team is on it due to one factor or another — from climate to lifestyle to taxes. He went on to say that bidding for free agents you’d have to overpay based on the aforementioned factors to compete with US market teams.

    Winning isn’t everything. It would seem the short tenure of an NHL career has players considering other variables than *just winning.

  128. godot10 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    godot10,

    Right.

    One AL is enough.And I like Larsson.

    But *if say we could move him to TOR for Andersen and the VGK 2020 4th round pick, I’d do it.Then replace him in the middle of the d-corp with a guy like Bogosian or Holzer (or other).

    I fear Bogosian is going to be too expensive absent salary retention by TOR (which would negate a primary incentive for them to make the trade), and Holzer might be miscast in the role.Though I doubt he’s played with as good a partner as Nurse or Klefbom for long stints, and of course life is easier when you’re passing up to Connor or Leon.

    FWIW, I really noticed Holzer when he was playing against us with NSH so that neither invalidates nor refutes your turd polishing angle.Maybe he could be polished by our guys, is the gist.

    Holzer has never been a top 4D option anywhere that he has ever played in the NHL.

    If one is planning for him to be a top 4D, you can right off the playoffs next year.

  129. Harpers Hair says:

    €√¥£€^$: I wouldn’t want to sign Koivu for more than $1.5 million, despite his stellar metrics.The injury potential is high and he has made his money, so maybe he sees several opportunities in Edmonton, including Canada being a safe place, like Kurt Leavins mentioned in his “9 Things”‘ article.Hopefully the Wild wasn’t one of the teams staying in the “Sauna rooms” during the play-ins….

    I am also wondering if this is the year that the McDavid factor has influence on UFA’s.

    You’re assuming the McDavid factor is a positive..

    The reverse may be true.

  130. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Don’t disagree.

    Except the cap room probably isn’t as dire as the MSM make it out to be, with some nimble roster construction. From what I can tell from using my own common sense with the available roster tools online.

    I’d rather slightly overpay a Haula or J. Larsson than an aged Koivu or Soderberg. Prefer AAV to term in both cases.

  131. hunter1909 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: every time he’s been A/GM on a Canadian team if a player has a seven-team NTC every Canadian team is on it due to one factor or another — from climate to lifestyle to taxes. He went on to say that bidding for free agents you’d have to overpay based on the aforementioned factors to compete with US market teams.

    In a salary cap universe this is not a huge problem.

    You draft and develop players, or you can also trade for them. If a team has its act together(a laughable concept for the 1.5 Decades of Darkness I know) traded for players most often will be happy to stay on the team.

    UFA’s are like trying to win with nitro in car racing. Mostly a big bang and nothing after.

    Obviously I could be wrong here…

  132. hunter1909 says:

    Harpers Hair: You’re assuming the McDavid factor is a positive..

    The reverse may be true.

    That makes a lot of sense, in some circles.

    “You tell my agent, no freaking way I’m going to play with that asshole McDavid”

  133. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    godot10,

    His deployment against elites in TOR, ANA and NSH was between 25-30% in three seasons. NSH and ANA have amongst the deepest of d-corps in the league.

    It’s more of a thought exercise to find a temporary bargain fit than a set notion of roster construction. I would have him signed as a player for Bouchard to usurp and make Benning dispensable than to rely on for success.

  134. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    hunter1909: In a salary cap universe this is not a huge problem.

    Obviously I could be wrong here

    What I posted of Burkie’s recent interview suggests you’re mistaken.

  135. Harpers Hair says:

    hunter1909: That makes a lot of sense, in some circles.

    “You tell my agent, no freaking way I’m going to play with that asshole McDavid”

    Not the issue.

    McDavid consumes a lot of oxygen and a huge amount of cap space which makes roster construction difficult.

    A player who wants to win would look at the roster and assess that there is less money for him and the team is many miles way from being competitive.

    Given the setting of Buffalo on the Prairies and high Canadian tax rates would drive any free agent to greener pastures.

  136. godot10 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    godot10,

    His deployment against elites in TOR, ANA and NSH was between 25-30% in three seasons.NSH and ANA have amongst the deepest of d-corps in the league.

    It’s more of a thought exercise to find a temporary bargain fit than a set notion of roster construction.I would have him signed as a player for Bouchard to usurp and make Benning dispensable than to rely on for success.

    Holzer has never played more than 50 games in a season. Anywhere. So he is a tweener #7D Rickibox D. Yeah, he can fill in in a pinch when injuries hit on the 3rd pairing if the other guy can move the puck.

    In Toronto, the left side was Rielly, Gardiner, and Phaneuf.
    In Anaheim, the left side is Lindholm, Fowler, Theodore, or other young mobile puck handling D.

  137. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    godot10,

    First point is fair, conceded.

    To the second point, he’s a right shot RHD.

    My main hope was he could fill in on the second pair being polished by Nurse or Klefbom until Bouchard usurps Benning. Then Holzer would be a nice safety blanket for a young Lagesson or Jones on the third pair. It’s optimistic, I know.

    It’s entirely likely there is someone else to be found for the role. Just turning over stones here.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Brian Burke just said last week on Bob’s Thursday show that every time he’s been A/GM on a Canadian team if a player has a seven-team NTC every Canadian team is on it due to one factor or another — from climate to lifestyle to taxes.He went on to say that bidding for free agents you’d have to overpay based on the aforementioned factors to compete with US market teams.

    Winning isn’t everything.It would seem the short tenure of an NHL career has players considering other variables than *just winning.

    Yes, i listened to Burkie’s spot with Stauff this past week – as I said, money, location and winning – winning was one of three factors I would put ahead of the “McDavid lure”, to the extent such a thing exists.

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Don’t disagree.

    Except the cap room probably isn’t as dire as the MSM make it out to be, with some nimble roster construction.From what I can tell from using my own common sense with the available roster tools online.

    I’d rather slightly overpay a Haula or J. Larsson than an aged Koivu or Soderberg.Prefer AAV to term in both cases.

    I agree with your second sentence – I wouldn’t mind Mikko Koivu on the Oilers but, in no way, am I stretching the contract terms to get him – he’s turning 38.

    I don’t think the cap situation is dire due to MSM, I think its dire because I’ve determined that on my own – I know what he have, what I think we need and how much space there is.

    I also know that the Yamamoto will need a contract after this year, Bear won’t be under $2M for long, Nuge will need a bump after next season – Jones and Nurse then come due, etc., etc.

    Bad cap falls away but raises are going to be required and the cap isn’t going up for at least a couple years and maybe closer to 5 years.

    At some point (likely next off-season), incumbents will need to be moved for the cheap youngsters to come in but, while there will be more room to manoeuvre in the coming years, I don’t see them being flush for a long long time.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    How is a team that finished 2nd in its division and top 10 in the NHL in points (12th in P%), with its top 2 forwards not even in their primes and their top 3 d-men not in their primes (2 approaching) miles from being competitive?

  141. jeetz says:

    There was some chatter about Florida shedding Salary. If Ekblad is available, he would be the guy to pursue over OEL. Even if we have to pay more to get him. He is a true 1A defenseman. One of the few possible available players worth an overpay

  142. Turning Tikkanese says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Not on the twatter but I’d humbly propose to do Sheahan last so as to not influence the proceedings.

    Between the other two you can’t go wrong, hope to see posts for both.

    So you’re saying…. where there’s a Weal there’s a way??? Just checking!

    Less relevant, but would a 1-for-1 of Chiasson and Jordan Weal in MTL make sense to get a decent, known 4RC who could possibly move up for slumps or injury cover?We’d get to dump some cap and some redundancy between AC & Neal.Both are one year deals.

    Thanks for your work, it’s always thought provoking.

  143. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    How is a team that finished 2nd in its division and top 10 in the NHL in points (12th in P%), with its top 2 forwards not even in their primes and their top 3 d-men not in their primes (2 approaching) miles from being competitive?

    OriginalPouzar:
    How is a team that finished 2nd in its division and top 10 in the NHL in points (12th in P%), with its top 2 forwards not even in their primes and their top 3 d-men not in their primes (2 approaching) miles from being competitive?

    They don’t give out participation ribbons.

    There are a few elite teams…a bunch of aspirants and a few teams that are truly dreadful.

    The difference in points percentage between 12th and 20th was .022

    Getting to the middle in a league with tremendous parity is relatively easy unless you make some truly stupid mistakes.

    Becoming an elite team is what separates the men from the boys in roster and cap construction.

    Arguing that McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Larsson and Nurse aren’t “in their primes” is a huge stretch but even if there is marginal improvement, the roster remains terribly unbalanced with little flexibility to make any significant changes.

  144. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: No recency bias in the following scenarios:

    1) Broberg has a very strong first few months in the SHL, starts of Sweden at the World Juniors, stays for Oilers training camp as it is early January and never plays for Skelleftea again….

    2) Konovaolv continues to impress a super young goalie in the KHL for the next month, Holland continues to believe he is a real possibility for 1B with Mikko in 2021/22 and, accordingly, and smartly, does not over-spend on a 1B for this coming year and buys one-year of Aaron Dell for cheap (or a bought out Dubnyk or a Stalock).

    OK, scenario one is somewhat pie in the sky (can’t imagine him staying in Edmonton after the world juniors – lets not forget about the ELC slide) but scenario 2 is somewhat plausible to me.

    Recency Bias was a comment on the Russian goal tender getting drafted possibly in the top 5-10. Due his hot start I believe his stock will have gone up due recency bias. This year player movement is impossible to predict due a number of factors brought on by the pandemic. The economic reality may be cancellation of 20/21 season complete with a reset with the next regular season being 21/22 starting in just a little over one year.

  145. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Much of what you’re saying speaks to broadly agreeing with my point on overpaying for AAV but not term.

    I’d rather try to fit in a Haula or similar on a one year deal at say +25% AAV than even +1yr on term.

    Go for it now, without compromising future competitiveness.

    Perhaps that’s why I’m okay with AA at $3MM for a one or two year term. He’s in concert with his comparable cohort of RFAs on both a production and salary basis.

  146. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Jaxon:
    Byfield looks pretty impressive by this metric. In previous years, I was able to compare previous draft seasons, but when prospect stats went down I’ve had to rely on pick224, which is great but they don’t calculate 5-on-5 TOI or 5-on-5 primary points. Pick 224 only does ES points and they don’t calculate ESTOI, so they cannot be compared.

    I’m sure Pick224 has the TOI included if you scroll far to the right side. It’ll be around the on and off-ice goal shares.

  147. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    pts2pndr,

    Askarov has played well for while now.

    “July 2019 – At age 16, Askarov played as a starting goalie both for SKA-Varyagi in the MHL and for Russia U18. He was spectacular throughout the season, and he is arguably the best Russian goalie prospect since Andrei Vasilevsky. Askarov has posted a .921 save percentage in 31 games in the MHL, and also .948 and .916 at WJC-U17 and WJC-U18 respectively. After a great performance at the U18 Worlds, he is a potential lottery pick for the 2020 NHL Draft.”

    source: https://dobberprospects.com/player/yaroslav-askarov/

  148. jp says:

    €√¥£€^$: I didn’t get into it, but seems obvious that Korpi with Koski as his mentor could be incredible fruitful for the younger man. And if Koivu were to come and attract Granlund (with is 100% my own speculation, but I suspect they are close friends, but I have no insider info) also who knows if his brothers experience in Edm is helpful or hurtful, if anything…. Would a bunch of vet Finn teammates help Korpi, probably. He hasn’t really had that experience in North America.

    Yes, that very well could help. And things may have clicked for him this year, he had a nice season and a great playoff.

    I can’t ignore his track record though. I’d be more confident that Koskinen is a true .911 SV% goalie than Korpisalo is.

    That’s not to say Korpisalo isn’t, or that he’d be a bad acquisition to pair with Koskinen. I guess I was just surprised and disappointed to see how poor his results where prior to this season (seriously, 2 seasons under .900 in the 2 years before this one).

  149. jp says:

    Ryan:
    100%
    During the regular season.
    All strengths toi/g.
    Benning. 13:13 which was 8th not including Green.
    Also, only Lagesson and Manning had a higher rate of on the fly starts.
    Play in round with an injured Larsson.
    10:40.
    Those are some long side burns.
    For comparison, Jones played 11:52.
    Though there is the Kraken issue…

    Fully agree too.

    I think Holland will (after trading Benning) sign a #6/7 FA D ~$1M for 2 years. Covers off the Kraken and serves as Bouchard insurance for half the price.

    I like Benning but the coaching staff does not.

    Before he was injured he spent most of the fall playing 3RD behind two guys who had 18 total games of NHL experience. It’s easy to forget Bear was never expected to even make the team. Benning got essentially zero looks in the top 4, even during camp.

  150. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I think he likely is, if only due to the skillset he brings being more conducive to taking harder minutes. Further, given his PK numbers were good, he strikes me as a solid bet to help on special teams which has otherwise been a task forced on our already overworked top-4. Whether rightly or wrongly, Benning is an EV guy without much special teams utility since he’s pretty average across the board. Soucy brings size and reach along with (seeming) defensive prowess- rookie seasons can be deceiving, of course.

    Part of why I’m keen on adding him is for the longer term outlook as well. This team has seen a recent influx of smaller puck-moving types- a move a completely support. However, I think those types (particularly Bouchard) would benefit from a steady partner in much the same way guys like Carlson, Karlsson, Letang and Heiskanen benefited from partnering with Kempny, Methot, Dumoulin and Oleksiak.

    This isn’t the only way to structure pairings, but I think D with enough of an offensive bent really benefit from clearly defined in-pairing roles; gives them one less thing to consider in the heat of the game.

  151. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Bad cap falls away but raises are going to be required and the cap isn’t going up for at least a couple years and maybe closer to 5 years.

    NHL HRR has been over $3.3B for essentially a decade, and was $4.86B in 17-18 and $5.09B in 18-19.

    Once fans are back in the stands (which I think is extremely likely by 21-22) do you really think HRR will remain below ~$4B?

    Clearly a couple of years of flat cap is happening, but is it realistic to think it will remain low for 4 or 5 seasons? I may well be missing something butt that’s pretty impressive.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    430 mountain today for the 30 min awards show. We find out if the PHWA and/or the players voted Leon as the best (or most valuable to the team).

    I normally don’t really care much about the awards but I will be watching and I care – mainly because I want Greg Wyshynski to lose it.

  153. Jaxon says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: I’m sure Pick224 has the TOI included if you scroll far to the right side. It’ll be around the on and off-ice goal shares.

    They do, but it’s not ES TOI or 5v5 TOI, is all TOI if I’m reading it correctly.

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Recency Bias was a comment on the Russian goal tender getting drafted possibly in the top 5-10. Due his hot start I believe his stock will have gone up due recency bias. This year player movement is impossible to predict due a number of factors brought on by the pandemic. The economic reality may be cancellation of 20/21 season complete with a reset with the next regular season being 21/22 starting in just a little over one year.

    I understand that. My post was mostly a joke as the two scenarios I posted were also clearly fraught with recency bias vis-a-vis Broberg’s and Konovalov’s hot starts to the year.

  155. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yaroslav Lokomotiv’s game postponed, again – no Konovalov for us…

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    CKSA Moscow’s game also postponed as Jokerit is still in their 14 days – no Sammy for us.

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: NHL HRR has been over $3.3B for essentially a decade, and was $4.86B in 17-18 and $5.09B in 18-19.

    Once fans are back in the stands (which I think is extremely likely by 21-22) do you really think HRR will remain below ~$4B?

    Clearly a couple of years of flat cap is happening, but is it realistic to think it will remain low for 4 or 5 seasons? I may well be missing something butt that’s pretty impressive.

    Well, it doesn’t go higher than $82.5M until HRR gets back to $4.8B and the Escrow Balance is paid off.

    There seems to be a LONG ways to go to get any sort of material increase in the cap – in particular if they are playing next year with no fans for a material portion of the year (likely not helping the Escrow Balance).

  158. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Well, it doesn’t go higher than $82.5M until HRR gets back to $4.8B and the Escrow Balance is paid off.

    There seems to be a LONG ways to go to get any sort of material increase in the cap – in particular if they are playing next year with no fans for a material portion of the year (likely not helping the Escrow Balance).

    You said above though that the cap could be at $81.5M for 2, 3, 4, 5 years. “Effectively” flat would be a fair characterization.

    It’s interesting, the shortened 12-13 season (48 games) saw the revenue go from 3.37B in 2012 to 2.63B in 2013 and back up to 3.7B in 2014. It’s steadily risen since then to 5.09B in 2018-19.

    I’d guess the drop from the Covid shortened season would be roughly comparable to the 3.37 to 2.63B drop given fewer games were lost (though zero gate revenue from the playoffs). Next season will see more lost revenue obviously but it wouldn’t be surprising to see it recover back above $4.8B next by 21-22. (as you say there’s still a balance to pay, even if it goes like that).

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    Of course, the prior shutdowns of the NHL were due to internal financial matters and the current issue is due to a global pandemic shifting the global economy.

    Will the incoming US TV deal be as big? Likely not.

    Will corporate sponsorship be as big? Likely not.

    Will fans come roaring back to buildings at the same price point? We’ll see.

    I think the economic recovery will be quite a bit different that in prior years.

  160. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar,
    There’s also a new franchise being added.

    But we clearly don’t know. Yes, it’s entirely possible the recovery won’t be what it was after the lockout.

    I was surprised that HRR only dropped by 20% in the lockout year despite 40% fewer regular season games.

  161. godot10 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    pts2pndr,

    Askarov has played well for while now.

    “July 2019 – At age 16, Askarov played as a starting goalie both for SKA-Varyagi in the MHL and for Russia U18. He was spectacular throughout the season, and he is arguably the best Russian goalie prospect since Andrei Vasilevsky. Askarov has posted a .921 save percentage in 31 games in the MHL, and also .948 and .916 at WJC-U17 and WJC-U18 respectively. After a great performance at the U18 Worlds, he is a potential lottery pick for the 2020 NHL Draft.”

    source: https://dobberprospects.com/player/yaroslav-askarov/

    A scouting eervice that only lists his great performances and not his stinkers, even if there is perhaps only one.

  162. Oil2Oilers says:

    Just to be a contrarian ass, how about a swing for the fences this fall;

    Colton Parayko from the Blues for Adam Larsson, Dmitir Samorukov and 2020 3d round pick. Blues gain some cap space for signing Pietrangelo.

    Trade 14th overall pick and Chiasson to Ottawa for picks #28 and #52. Draft RHD Justin Baron and a volume shooting winger.

    Trade Russell for a Coyote Goalie.

    Walk Athanasiou and possibly Benning for walking around money to buy a 3C.

    Oilers would be set on both sides of defense, now and in the future. Two legit prospects enter the system and a goalie is added as we wait Ilya Konovalov to grow 3″.

  163. Oil2Oilers says:

    As I have already started making wild suggestions why not continue;

    Should the Oilers keep Athanasiou but convert him to a 3C? Telling him to spend the fall with a skills coach with this in mind.

    https://www.nhl.com/redwings/news/notes-athanasiou-enjoys-playing-center/c-292768928

  164. Dee Dee says:

    NHL.com is reporting Draisaitl Won the Hart and Ted Lindsay award!

    sorry if it’s been mentioned already.

  165. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Oil2Oilers,

    Parayko costs you much more than that. Klefbom, Sammy and our 1st at the lowest.

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