Leon

The Oilers and NHL awards have a strange relationship. The club can’t win a Calder Memorial Trophy for love nor money, but have torched the competition since 1979 for other hardware. Tonight, Leon Draisaitl could join an epic group of Oilers. Tonight, he could join the giants who walked among us since the birth of Oilers nation in 1979. Tonight.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

ART ROSS TROPHY

  • 7 Wayne Gretzky (1981 to 1987)
  • 2 Connor McDavid (2017, 2018)
  • 1 Leon Draisaitl (2020)

Oilers have been in the NHL for 40 seasons, and a player from the team has won the scoring championship 10 times. Diabolical.

HART MEMORIAL TROPHY

  • 8 Wayne Gretzky (1980 to 1987)
  • 1 Mark Messier (1990)
  • 1 Connor McDavid (2017) 

Draisaitl has a chance to join the most storied names in franchise history. This is pretty impressive.

TED LINDSAY AWARD

  • 5 Wayne Gretzky (1982, 1983, 1984, 1985 and 1987)
  • 1 Mark Messier (1990)
  • 2 Connor McDavid (2017, 2018)

This is considered to be one of the most prestigious awards of all, as fellow players vote for the winner. Again, Draisaitl is possibly in some legendary company here.

PARSING WORDS

Kurt Leavins had a fascinating OEL item in his Sunday column yesterday, with speculation that had some real nuance. Quoting Leavins: “Arizona would also be keenly aware than in order to move their big LHS D-man it would have to both retain salary and probably take one on a contract, as well.”

That’s interesting. So, if the trade is Kris Russell (who Kurt mentions) and the first-round pick for OEL at $6 million? Edmonton gives up the pick and not much else. I’m not sure Arizona would do that deal and am not certain Edmonton should do that deal. Put it this way: If the Oilers make this deal, they better be right.

Two questions arise: Is Klefbom/Nurse going? And are the Oilers going to have any draft picks at the end of this thing?

I think Klefbom would be the player dealt, he’s been in trade rumours before and the only reason to move this player would be concern over his health moving forward (he has missed 46 games over the last three seasons and played over 70 games just once in his six-year career). Boston was once interested in Klefbom, it wouldn’t be shocking if they were again. Currently their left side is up in the air with Torey Krug and Zdeno Chara both free agents. For Edmonton, a fleet two-way winger for McDavid’s line and or a first-round pick to replace the one heading to Arizona would be the likely ask. One problem: Boston doesn’t have a first-round selection. Maybe the trade is for RFA LW Jake DeBrusk.

A top-six of OEL-Larsson, Nurse-Bear and Jones-Benning/Bouchard would remain. OEL is durable and would be fantastic on the ice at the same time as McDavid or Draisaitl. Leavins’ scenario breathes life into the idea of acquiring OEL for what is a fairly low cost. Even with that, Holland and Tippett better be right on this: Another long, searing coda of ineffective play that would be longer than the Lucic concerto could have a harmful effect on the fan-management relationship.

An OEL acquisition fits Ken Holland’s own trade past top dead center. He acquired Chris Chelios in 1999, Dominik Hasek in 2001, Mathieu Schneider in 2003, Robert Lang in 2004. OEL in 2015 would be in the same family of trades.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We hit the ground running on a huge week this morning at 10, TSN1260. We’ll chat NFL Week 2 with Julian Edlow from Draft Kings, Erik Erlendsson from LightningInsider.com will chat about Tampa Bay’s approach to Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final against the Dallas Stars. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 will chat Oilers at the draft and trade table, SCF and Lebron. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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117 Responses to "Leon"

  1. Harpers Hair says:

    James Mirtle (@mirtle) Tweeted:
    I’m hearing @Boucher_Hockey is the latest analytics hire in the NHL. Rumour is Florida, where there’s been big front office housecleaning.

    @Sportlogiq has become quite a platform.

  2. Ben says:

    The biggest tell in the Leavins piece is how he seems sure OEL would waive to come to Alberta. Feels like this has legs.

    If they can flip Klefbom for a bonafide, productive winger under control, I’m ok with the overall scenario.

    My guess:

    1st, Russell, Samorukov for OEL.

    Klefbom and Chiasson/Khaira for Nylander.

    Sucks to burn the 1st, but it’s window time (and by window, I mean prove to 97 he can win here before he asks out kind of window).

  3. YKOil says:

    Klefbom would have to return more than Debrusk imo. Debrusk has some of the same durability issues as Klefbom, a 1b defenseman is worth more than a 2b winger, Klefbom’s contract is pure gold, and Klefbom scores nearly as much – Debrusk’s scoring would go up if he made it to feature wing but I don’t see him as an every-year is 30 goals kind of guy.

    OEL at 6.0-6.5 million for the 1st, Russell, and Lagesson would get my attention. I would probably make this trade because it allows me to trade Klefbom without creating a gap AND because I could always look to flip OEL for a better package of assets (especially if I retained a further $1 million).

    OEL’s next 3 years salary hit $10.5 million each year so I get that AZ would be desperate to move him.

  4. jp says:

    LT: “An OEL acquisition fits Ken Holland’s own trade past top dead center. He acquired Chris Chelios in 1999, Dominik Hasek in 2001, Mathieu Schneider in 2003, Robert Lang in 2004. OEL in 2015 would be in the same family of trades.”

    True, but none of them were signed for 7 more seasons.

    At the same time, I’m on board if the Oilers are paying OEL $6M per.

  5. Woogie63 says:

    Oilers top end talent looks as good or better than NYI, TBL, VGK or Dallas

    Oiler’s Middle forwards, high end defense and Goaltending looks much weaker than the above teams.

  6. Elgin R says:

    #14 has value as 2020 is considered a very good draft in the first half of Round #1. Should Holland trade this away without a clear win? No.

    Yotes have significant financial challenges (owners) and cap issues (Chayka), so use this against them. They want / need a first round pick as part of the never-ending rebuild in the desert. Do they have enough LD on the roster and in the system? For 1-year yes, but will need a good up and coming LHD as they only have one LHD sign after next season (Chychrun).

    Samorukov is exactly the type of player they need. If the Yotes want a #14 and Sammy, then do they do the following trade:

    Oilers: Neal ($2.875m retain) + #14 + Sammy
    Yotes: OEL ($2.0m retain) + OEL waves his NMC (Kraken draft)

    Oilers ‘paying’ $9.125m for 3 years when he should still be a #1 and then $6.25 for the final 4 declining years of the contract.

    Yotes ‘paying’ $4.875m for 3 years then $2.0m x 4 to get a solid first round pick and a very good LHD prospect. Also Yotes get out of the $39.5m in actual money that OEL is owed over the 4 years after the 2020/2021 season.

  7. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OEL Ver.2020 does very little to impress me. 5 years ago = “wahoo”, but not now. Too much money at the end of the day for a guy who is on the decline and requires moving too many important and valuable assets (if the rumours for acquisition are approximately accurate)..

    Go LEON!!

  8. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I don’t know why EDM would entertain a Klefbom trade over a Nurse trade. I have about as much faith in Holland as I did in Chiarelli honestly.

  9. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I don’t know why EDM would entertain a Klefbom trade over a Nurse trade. I have about as much faith in Holland as I did in Chiarelli honestly.

    Durability is one reason for sure.

  10. anjinsan says:

    Draisaitl is a great player. However, both MacKinnon and Panarin were more valuable to their teams. McDavid is the most valuable player to the Oilers. The play-in round showed this at the no contest level. What would any GM in the league pay to acquire McDavid? What would any GM in the league pay to acquire Draisaitl? Nevertheless, Leon Draisaitl is a very great player, love him.

  11. pts2pndr says:

    anjinsan:
    Draisaitl is a great player.However, both MacKinnon and Panarin were more valuable to their teams.McDavid is the most valuable player to the Oilers.The play-in round showed this at the no contest level.What would any GM in the league pay to acquire McDavid?What would any GM in the league pay to acquire Draisaitl?Nevertheless, Leon Draisaitl is a very great player, love him.

    If either McDavid or Draisaitl were available there would be 30 teams lined up for a chance to acquire them!

  12. PennersPancakes says:

    anjinsan,

    Didnt realize they added “Assets required to trade for a player” as part of the criteria for the Hart. But it is 2020 so….

    You may be right, and its not a completely hot take stance but how do you see Mackinnon and Panarin as more valuable to their respective teams than Draisatl is to the Oilers?

    The Hart is not the Smythe, it is a regular season award so looking at play in (counts as playoff points for players) is not logical. In the 2019-2020 regular season Drai was more valuable IMO.

    Played more games, scored more goals (at EV and PP), scored more assists (at EV and PP), had more game winners, average more TOI, won more faceoffs, and yes had more support but had the best line in hockey for the last couple months of the season. This isnt a slight at all to McDavid and if you think McDavid is the best player in hockey I find it interesting to vote against the player (Drai) who had a better season than him.

  13. PennersPancakes says:

    PennersPancakes: The Hart is not the Smythe, it is a regular season award so looking at play in (counts as playoff points for players) is not logical. In the 2019-2020 regular season Drai was more valuable IMO.

    Played more games, scored more goals (at EV and PP), scored more assists (at EV and PP), had more game winners, average more TOI, won more faceoffs, and yes had more support but had the best line in hockey for the last couple months of the season. This isnt a slight at all to McDavid and if you think McDavid is the best player in hockey I find it interesting to vote against the player (Drai) who had a better season than him.

    Sorry this comparison was for Drai to McDavid.

  14. flyfish1168 says:

    pts2pndr: If either McDavid or Draisaitl were available there would be 30 teams lined up for a chance to acquire them!

    That also applies to MacKinnon. At this moment with his 6.3 million for 3 more year contract this may make him more valuable.

  15. J-Bo says:

    If we end up with Debrusk and OEL (at a reduced price) for a first, Klefbom, and Russell, I think at minimum you have to say that is a good bet. It could provide vast improvement on the team as OEL should be an upgrade on Klef and DeBrusk would be an awesome get!

  16. Elgin R says:

    anjinsan:
    Draisaitl is a great player.However, both MacKinnon and Panarin were more valuable to their teams.McDavid is the most valuable player to the Oilers.The play-in round showed this at the no contest level.What would any GM in the league pay to acquire McDavid?What would any GM in the league pay to acquire Draisaitl?Nevertheless, Leon Draisaitl is a very great player, love him.

    If you want to use the actual award terminology of ‘most valuable to his team’, then Eichel should win every year.

  17. Harpers Hair says:

    Elgin R: If you want to use the actual award terminology of ‘most valuable to his team’, then Eichel should win every year.

    Panarin had an even more outsized effect on his team.

    He should in but likely won’t.

  18. Eh Team says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I don’t know why EDM would entertain a Klefbom trade over a Nurse trade. I have about as much faith in Holland as I did in Chiarelli honestly.

    The Lucic trade was awesome and Broberg might be an inspired pick- but there’s also Mike Smith, Kassian, the AA trade (granted hindsight on that one), even the Archibald signing. Archibald is a small thing but why the need for 2 years and probably an overpay.

    The Oilers problem forever has been player evaluation and I don’t think they are on the leading edge,

  19. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Reminds me of McDavid’s metrics last year, when he was snookered by the media because his team didn’t make the playoffs yet his stats were far advanced of the field.

    Should have won, but didn’t.

  20. Reja says:

    anjinsan:
    Draisaitl is a great player.However, both MacKinnon and Panarin were more valuable to their teams.McDavid is the most valuable player to the Oilers.The play-in round showed this at the no contest level.What would any GM in the league pay to acquire McDavid?What would any GM in the league pay to acquire Draisaitl?Nevertheless, Leon Draisaitl is a very great player, love him.

    You might find this hard to fathom but if you lined up 32 GMs this morning and they had a choice between Leon, Nathan and Artemi to start a franchise with there would be more GMs picking Leon then your mind could grasp.

  21. jp says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I don’t know why EDM would entertain a Klefbom trade over a Nurse trade. I have about as much faith in Holland as I did in Chiarelli honestly.

    Lowetide: Durability is one reason for sure.

    On ice GF/GA could be another.

  22. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Eh Team: Oilers problem forever has been player evaluation

    “Oilers problem forever has been player evaluation”
    EXACTLY!!

  23. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Panarin had an even more outsized effect on his team.

    He should in but likely won’t.

    Let’s bet $100 I’ll take Leon you can have the field.

  24. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Reja: You might find this hard to fathom but if you lined up 32 GMs this morningand they had a choice between Leon, Nathan and Artemi to start a franchise with there would be more GMs picking Leon then your mind could grasp.

    Gonna have to heartily disagree. I don’t think there are many GMs that would take Draisaitl over Mackinnon.

  25. PennersPancakes says:

    Eh Team: The Lucic trade was awesome and Broberg might be an inspired pick- but there’s also Mike Smith, Kassian, the AA trade (granted hindsight on that one), even the Archibald signing.Archibald is a small thing but why the need for 2 years and probably an overpay.

    The Oilers problem forever has been player evaluation and I don’t think they are on the leading edge,

    Im no Holland apologist but:
    – Lucic Trade: Amazing work
    – Broberg pick: To soon to call but predraft rankings were high and arrows are good. (Broberg + Lavoie vs Zegra + Brink/LaCombe)
    – Mike Smith: Decent gamble last season, agree bad gamble IF they sign him again.
    – Kassian: At best neutral value BEFORE Covid, tough contact post covid and ghost in play in.
    – AA: Lack of games due to Covid and flat cap. Decent gamble.
    – Archibald: 1.5Mx2. Dont see the concern here. Good engine, okay scoring touch, PK. Pre-Covid. Extra year isnt a deal breaker and helps build good will with players/UFAs.
    – Haas: 1 year .915 extension. Good depth bet. Worth it and can still adjust to NHL
    – Ennis trade: Great value for a 5th.
    – Mike Green: Good gamble. Injuries and Covid though.
    – Nurse extension: Meh. Rock and hard place with cap. Value but walk to UFA.
    – Chiasson contract: Probably slight overpay. Money on the PP.
    – Nygard/Granlund/Jurco/Sheahan bets: good value.

    I dont know what his GoodMoves/60 is but Ive seen him more good than bad. Only one I really dislike is the Kassian signing. Really liked bringing in Smith, Haas, Nygard, Ennis. After watching Heiskanen skate this playoffs the Broberg pick is really growing on me.

  26. dustrock says:

    As much as Draisaitl’s performance was incredible, I’d probably vote for Panarin.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    OEL at $6M is a totally different conversation than OEL at $8.25M – it almost flips the contract value 180 doesn’t it?

    If they take Kris Russell back (and they very well might be willing due to $1.5M and he is value at that “price point”), that would be great but lets not forget than that only opens up cap space for 1 season. The cap will be $81.5M for 2021/22 as well and Yamamoto, Bear, Nuge will be more expensive (in addition to maybe Benson and a few other).

    If Arizona retains down to $6M and takes on Kris Russell what real assets are they going to want back?

    It would have to be substantial and consist of at least the 14th and/or the 2021 1st and/or Broberg/Bouchard, I would think.

    I’m not sure I’m willing to pay but I guess it depends on the asset(s) the org gets back for Nurse or Klef (or Jones) because something would have to give.

  28. Material Elvis says:

    dustrock:
    As much as Draisaitl’s performance was incredible, I’d probably vote for Panarin.

    Based on what? For the same reasons that Kucherov won the Hart and Lindsay, Draisaitl seems like a lock for both awards.

  29. TheGreatBigMac says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Here’s one version of what that could look like
    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1938318

  30. Material Elvis says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Harpers Hair,

    Reminds me of McDavid’s metrics last year, when he was snookered by the media because his team didn’t make the playoffs yet his stats were far advanced of the field.

    Should have won, but didn’t.

    Exactly. Anything to fuck the Oilers over, though. Panarin’s team wouldn’t have made the playoffs if the season played out normally.

  31. Material Elvis says:

    Elgin R: If you want to use the actual award terminology of ‘most valuable to his team’, then Eichel should win every year.

    The top goalie should win every year. There is no player more valuable to his team than the hottest goalie.

  32. Material Elvis says:

    anjinsan:
    Draisaitl is a great player.However, both MacKinnon and Panarin were more valuable to their teams.McDavid is the most valuable player to the Oilers.The play-in round showed this at the no contest level.What would any GM in the league pay to acquire McDavid?What would any GM in the league pay to acquire Draisaitl?Nevertheless, Leon Draisaitl is a very great player, love him.

    Panarin’s team did not make the playoffs in the traditional sense. He wasn’t that great in the play-in round either. 3GP, 1-1-2, -3.

    McKinnon plays on a stacked team. Without him, they are still a playoff team, in my opinion. The Oilers are not a playoff without Draisaitl (also in my opinion).

  33. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    I can understand the logic of trading Klef over a Nurse when weighting durability highly. However if OEL is 1LD and Klef is only 2LD doesn’t that make durability less important? Asking a 3LD to play 2LD seems loads easier than going from 2LD to 1LD.

    When you factor in salary I think it makes Klefbom a great fit for a lineup with OEL.

  34. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:
  35. PennersPancakes says:

    This is all a moot point. Drai is winning the hart if you are to believe the fanatics leak and Finnish NHL leak.

  36. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Bohologo,

    This joke was pure gold, and delivered right on time!

  37. Woogie63 says:

    Five years ago these General Managers had a pick in the first round – Half of them are no longer with that club – clearly a high danger job.

    2015 GMs

    1. Edmonton – Peter Chiarelli – Gone
    2. Buffalo -Tim Murray -Gone
    3. Arizona- Don Maloney – Gone
    4. Toronto – Dale Hunter/Klye Dubis – Hunter Gone
    5. Carolina- Ron Francis – Gone
    6. New Jersey – Ray Shero – Gone
    7. Pilly -Ron Hextall- Gone
    8. CBJ – Kekalainen -in role
    9. SJS – Wilson – in role
    10. Colorado – Sakic – in role
    11. Florida – Tallon – Gone
    12. Dallas – Jim Nill – in role
    13. Boston – Don Sweeney – in role
    14. Boston- Don Sweeney – in role
    15. Boston – Don Sweeney – in role
    16. NYI – Garth Snow- Gone
    17. Winnipeg – Kevin Cheveldayoff – in role
    18. Ottawa – Pierre Dorion – in role
    19. DRW – Ken Holland – Gone
    20. Minnesota – Chuck Fletcher – Gone
    21. Ottawa – Perrie Dorion – in role
    22. Washington – Brian MacLellan – in role
    23. Vancouver – Jim Benning – in role
    24. Philly – Ron Hextall – Gone
    25. Winnipeg – Kevin Cheveldayoff – in role
    26. Montreal – Marc Bergevin – in role
    27. Anaheim – Bob Murray – in role
    28. NYI – Garth Snow – Gone
    29. CBJ -Kekalainen – in role
    30. Arizona – Don Maloney – Gone

  38. Bruce McCurdy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I don’t know why EDM would entertain a Klefbom trade over a Nurse trade. I have about as much faith in Holland as I did in Chiarelli honestly.

    5v5 2017-20
    =========

    Nurse 235 GP, 4477 minutes, 35-34-36% vs Elites, +2.63 / -2.68 /60, total cap hit $~7.3 million
    Klefbom 189 GP, 3310 minutes, 32-35-33% vs Elites, +2.11 / -2.78 /60, total cap hit $12.5 million

    Oscar is undeniably the dreamier of the two, but the numbers favour Darnell. At least, these ones do.

  39. Litke 94 says:

    Eh Team: The Lucic trade was awesome and Broberg might be an inspired pick- but there’s also Mike Smith, Kassian, the AA trade (granted hindsight on that one), even the Archibald signing.Archibald is a small thing but why the need for 2 years and probably an overpay.

    The Oilers problem forever has been player evaluation and I don’t think they are on the leading edge,

    I really only see Kassian and AA as the two worrying items there. I don’t see any issue with Archibald signing, and Mike Smith played excellent for a solid two months this year and was a big reason we went on a run to jump to 5th in the Conference.

  40. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Bruce McCurdy: 5v5 2017-20
    =========

    Nurse 235 GP, 4477 minutes, 35-34-36% vs Elites, +2.63 / -2.68 /60, total cap hit $~7.3 million
    Klefbom 189 GP, 3310 minutes, 32-35-33% vs Elites, +2.11 / -2.78 /60, total cap hit $12.5 million

    Oscar is undeniably the dreamier of the two, but the numbers favour Darnell. At least, these ones do.

    Does this account for linemates? If I recall, Darnell spent notably more time with 97 and isolated 77 + 25 look quite similar.

    Past cap hit shouldn’t be a factor, but cap hit moving forward should be. Darnell $1.5M higher AAV and closer to UFA.

    They shouldn’t trade either without a better replacement coming the other way, don’t see it making sense to trade the better contract.

  41. pts2pndr says:

    flyfish1168: That also applies to MacKinnon. At this moment with his 6.3 million for 3 more year contract this may make him more valuable.

    If you look at the post that I replied to, the poster said “ I don’t know why any team would want him” in regards to Draisaitl

  42. Durag says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Like LT said, durability becomes a factor. You wonder if those injuries are starting to take a permanent toll on Klefbom. Plus you’re getting ~15 extra games played per year out of Nurse.

  43. pts2pndr says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Gonna have to heartily disagree. I don’t think there are many GMs that would take Draisaitl over Mackinnon.

    You have the right to your opinion but if you weigh it just on the skill and not the contract Draisaitl wins in my opinion hands down. He is one year young with one Fifty goal campaign which would have been two given a full season this year. MacKinnon will likely get current Draisaitl money plus in three years time. Not saying MacKinnon isn’t a fantastic player just that Draisaitl is the better player and it is a close call.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ben:
    The biggest tell in the Leavins piece is how he seems sure OEL would waive to come to Alberta. Feels like this has legs.

    If they can flip Klefbom for a bonafide, productive winger under control, I’m ok with the overall scenario.

    My guess:

    1st, Russell, Samorukov for OEL.

    Klefbom and Chiasson/Khaira for Nylander.

    Sucks to burn the 1st, but it’s window time (and by window, I mean prove to 97 he can win here before he asks out kind of window).

    The creates an expansion draft problem or leaving Jones unprotected…….

    That’s the problem with trading the 1st for an asset that needs to be protected.

  45. jp says:

    Bohologo:
    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    This is a Zurich club in the second tier of the Swiss leagues, if I am not mistaken.

    (Say what you want about that country, I think we can all agree their flag is a big plus.)

    Hehe.

    And yes, a 2nd tier team.

    It’s gotta be tough for these minor league guys to catch on with a team at this stage (and probably just for a few months).

    Checking their roster though, I noticed Pius Suter, last years Swiss league (1st tier) MVP and leading scorer. He signed this summer with the Blackhawks and was also loaned to the GC Lions this month. So no shame in ending up there I guess.

  46. jp says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Does this account for linemates? If I recall, Darnell spent notably more time with 97 and isolated 77 + 25 look quite similar.

    Past cap hit shouldn’t be a factor, but cap hit moving forward should be. Darnell $1.5M higher AAV and closer to UFA.

    They shouldn’t trade either without a better replacement coming the other way, don’t see it making sense to trade the better contract.

    Same time span as Bruce (last 3 seasons):
    Nurse with McDavid — 1706min 3.62/2.88 G/60 55.7%GF
    Klefbom with McDavid 1151min 3.28/3.23 G/60 50.4%GF

    Nurse without McDavid — 2771min 2.01/2.56 G/60 44.1%GF
    Klefbom without McDavid 2210min 1.49/2.55 G/60 36.9%GF

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    I see The Athletic mock has Quinn, Jarvis and Askarov going right before the Oilers at 14 and LT selects D. Holloway for the Oilers.

    I’m no expert on draft eligibles, far from it, but, from what I’ve read and heard, I’m just not “excited” about Holloway – this is the type of scenario where I may be in favor of trading down in the round to grab Mysak and and additional asset (2nd rounder)….

  48. LadiesloveSmid says:

    jp: Same time span as Bruce (last 3 seasons):
    Nurse with McDavid — 1706min 3.62/2.88 G/60 55.7%GF
    Klefbom with McDavid 1151min 3.28/3.23 G/60 50.4%GF

    Nurse without McDavid — 2771min2.01/2.56 G/60 44.1%GF
    Klefbom without McDavid 2210min 1.49/2.55 G/60 36.9%GF

    Same time frame: 5v5

    Nurse with McDavid — 50.58% xGF
    Klefbom with McDavid — 52.41% xGF

    Nurse w/o McDavid — 48.88% xGF
    Klefbom w/o McDavid — 48.76% xGF

    I guess we have to ask ourselves is it something that Nurse does that drives the 10.86% on-ice SH%.

  49. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Darnell & Oscar don’t really get any quality D partners, I say that as a big Bear fan.

    They really shouldn’t trade either but if they intend to ‘upgrade’ to say OEL, they should trade Darnell IMO.

    Really they should upgrade on Larsson.

  50. Elgin R says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I see The Athletic mock has Quinn, Jarvis and Askarov going right before the Oilers at 14 and LT selects D. Holloway for the Oilers.

    I’m no expert on draft eligibles, far from it, but, from what I’ve read and heard, I’m just not “excited” about Holloway – this is the type of scenario where I may be in favor of trading down in the round to grab Mysak and and additional asset (2nd rounder)….

    Not surprised that LT chose Holloway as he has been talking him up for awhile. It is hard to evaluate Big 10 rookies with math as they do not play a lot. So, reviewing draft-1 year for a few players in this mock still available at 14: Holloway = 20.4 / Borque = 19.6 / Mercer = 22 / Lapierre = 21.8 / Zary = 26.3. Using draft year in OHL for Mysak = 30.1 (his Czech league draft-1 = 8)

    For fun reference in their draft-1 year: Benson = 18 / Lavoie = 21.6 / Yammy = 30.8

    Holloway is bigger and is listed as a better skater than all of the other available players. If the NHL follows this mock, then I am OK with drafting a big, fast western Canadian kid. Not a fan of trading down for more magic beans!

  51. leadfarmer says:

    Elgin R: Not surprised that LT chose Holloway as he has been talking him up for awhile.It is hard to evaluate Big 10 rookies with math as they do not play a lot.So, reviewing draft-1 year for a few players in this mock still available at 14:Holloway = 20.4 / Borque = 19.6 / Mercer = 22 / Lapierre = 21.8 / Zary = 26.3.Using draft year in OHL for Mysak = 30.1 (his Czech league draft-1 = 8)

    For fun reference in their draft-1 year:Benson = 18 / Lavoie = 21.6 / Yammy = 30.8

    Holloway is bigger and is listed as a better skater than all of the other available players.If the NHL follows this mock, then I am OK with drafting a big, fast western Canadian kid.Not a fan of trading down for more magic beans!

    LT has not been talking up Holloway
    He’s reading the tea leaves but not talking him up

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Drai wins the Ted Lindsday!

  53. London Jon says:

    Yes Leon

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bear finished 10th in the Calder voting – with that said, it was one 3rd place vote (not surprisingly, there wasn’t a broad group voted for with a few elite in the category taking all the votes):

    https://twitter.com/ThomasDrance/status/1308173970747785216

  55. Eh Team says:

    jp: Checking their roster though, I noticed Pius Suter, last years Swiss league (1st tier) MVP and leading scorer. He signed this summer with the Blackhawks and was also loaned to the GC Lions this month. So no shame in ending up there I guess.

    Good (life) experience for Benson, just to be put in a different environment. Much nicer than Bakersfield (which I understand is a bit of a dump)

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Drai wins the Hart and sweeps the Hart, Art Ross and Ted Lindsay.

    Great year Drai – Conn Smyth next!

    He’s also got a Selke in him in a few years.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bear finished 10th in the Calder voting – with that said, it was one 3rd place vote (not surprisingly, there wasn’t a broad group voted for with a few elite in the category taking all the votes):

    https://twitter.com/ThomasDrance/status/1308173970747785216

    Check this, he had one 3rd, one 4th and one 5th.

  58. London Jon says:

    And the Hart. Boom

  59. London Jon says:

    So we had 3 future Hart winners on the roster when PC took over…

  60. London Jon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Check this, he had one 3rd, one 4th and one 5th.

    It looks like Adam Fox’s mom had a vote!!

  61. Little Johnny Frostbite says:

    I had to log in just to say I’m so fucking proud of Drai! Such a pleasure to have him here! Pretty incredible accomplishment.

  62. John Chambers says:

    What a pleasure to have watched a Hart Trophy season. For all the misery I’ve endured as an Oiler fan over 14 years, watching a player in an Oilers uniform dominate the league was a thing of beauty.

    Kraftwerk!

  63. jp says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Same time frame: 5v5

    Nurse with McDavid — 50.58% xGF
    Klefbom with McDavid — 52.41% xGF

    Nurse w/o McDavid — 48.88% xGF
    Klefbom w/o McDavid — 48.76% xGF

    I guess we have to ask ourselves is it something that Nurse does that drives the 10.86% on-ice SH%.

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Darnell & Oscar don’t really get any quality D partners, I say that as a big Bear fan.

    They really shouldn’t trade either but if they intend to ‘upgrade’ to say OEL, they should trade Darnell IMO.

    Really they should upgrade on Larsson.

    Why should they upgrade on Larsson?

    Larsson 49.3 xGF% (43.0 GF%)
    Klefbom 50.3 xGF% (43.1 GF%)
    Nurse — 49.3 xGF% (49.5 GF%)

    On Klefbom vs Nurse, a few of things.

    1) This started with: “I don’t know why EDM would entertain a Klefbom trade over a Nurse trade.”

    My answer was actual GF and GA. I think that’s a fair and quite likely accurate answer. Even if you or I believe in the process more than the results that doesn’t mean Holland or Tippett do too.

    2) I believe in the process/underlying numbers more than most, but when a player has real results that consistently deviate from the underlying stuff (as Klefbom’s do) then I start to wonder.

    I want to believe the 50.3 xGF% truly represents Klefbom, but his PDO has been worse than the Oilers’ every year of his career. I don’t believe individual defensemen control on ice shooting or SV%, but I can’t entirely ignore that Klefbom’s been remarkably and consistently unlucky. I guess I’m kind of splitting the difference between GF% and xGF% in thinking about Klefbom.

    3) If you got as far as xGF% and SH% with McDavid you must have noticed it’s just as much SV%.

    McDavid+Nurse- 10.9 .917 1.026 (SH%, SV%, PDO)
    McDavid without 10.2 .908 1.002
    Nurse without —– 6.9 .916 .985
    Both off ————- 5.9 .921 .980

    McDavid+Klefbom 9.6 .901 .997
    McDavid without- 10.9 .916 1.021
    Klefbom without — 5.1 .917 .968
    Both off ————- 6.8 .920 .988

    This could all be luck. But since Klefbom is dragging down all the percentages, with McDavid or independent of him, I think he *may* be at least partly responsible.

    The Nurse effect looks more like it might be luck. But we know certain players (like McDavid) can drive on ice SH%. Likewise some combinations of players can drive percentages, it’s possible the McDavid-Nurse number represents something Nurse is doing rather than being all fluke. Or maybe not.

  64. jp says:

    Very cool, congratulations to Draisaitl!!

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Per Reid Wilkins:

    Just re-posting as made a typo in Leon’s total: Draisaitl had 91 first place votes for the Hart. MacKinnon had 48, Panarin had 24.

    McDavid finished fifth in voting. Had one first place vote.

  66. godot10 says:

    London Jon:
    So we had 3 future Hart winners on the roster when PC took over…

    Hockey Night in Canada should do interviews with former GM’s under the theme “What was your greatest eff-up”?

    With Chiarelli it could be a weekly feature for a season to cover them all.

  67. Lowetide says:

    NEW for The Athletic: Why Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl won the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award

    https://theathletic.com/2082845/2020/09/21/lowetide-why-oilers-leon-draisaitl-won-the-hart-trophy-and-ted-lindsay-award/

  68. godot10 says:

    jp:
    Why should they upgrade on Larsson?

    Larsson 49.3 xGF% (43.0 GF%)
    Klefbom 50.3 xGF% (43.1 GF%)
    Nurse — 49.3 xGF% (49.5 GF%)

    On Klefbom vs Nurse, a few of things.

    1) This started with: “I don’t know why EDM would entertain a Klefbom trade over a Nurse trade.”

    My answer was actual GF and GA. I think that’s a fair and quite likely accurate answer. Even if you or I believe in the process more than the results that doesn’t mean Holland or Tippett do too.

    2) I believe in the process/underlying numbers more than most, but when a player has real results that consistently deviate from the underlying stuff (as Klefbom’s do) then I start to wonder.

    I want to believe the 50.3 xGF% truly represents Klefbom, but his PDO has been worse than the Oilers’ every year of his career. I don’t believe individual defensemen control on ice shooting or SV%, but I can’t entirely ignore that Klefbom’s been remarkably and consistently unlucky. I guess I’m kind of splitting the difference between GF% and xGF% in thinking about Klefbom.

    3) If you got as far as xGF% and SH% with McDavid you must have noticed it’s just as much SV%.

    McDavid+Nurse- 10.9 .917 1.026 (SH%, SV%, PDO)
    McDavid without 10.2 .908 1.002
    Nurse without —– 6.9 .916 .985
    Both off ————- 5.9 .921 .980

    McDavid+Klefbom 9.6 .901 .997
    McDavid without- 10.9 .916 1.021
    Klefbom without — 5.1 .917 .968
    Both off ————- 6.8 .920 .988

    This could all be luck. But since Klefbom is dragging down all the percentages, with McDavid or independent of him, I think he *may* be at least partly responsible.

    The Nurse effect looks more like it might be luck. But we know certain players (like McDavid) can drive on ice SH%. Likewise some combinations of players can drive percentages, it’s possible the McDavid-Nurse number represents something Nurse is doing rather than being all fluke. Or maybe not.

    It is Nurse’s ability to transport the puck. More goals are scored off the rush.

    If the Oilers forwards were better, it would help the pass first D even things out. But many Oilers forwards are awful, so it tilts the “advantage” towards D who can transport the puck.

    A team needs diversity on D, the ability to transport, and the ability to pass.

  69. godot10 says:

    godot10: It is Nurse’s ability to transport the puck.More goals are scored off the rush.

    If the Oilers forwards were better, it would help the pass first D even things out. But many Oilers forwards are awful, so it tilts the “advantage” towards D who can transport the puck.

    A team needs diversity on D, the ability to transport, and the ability to pass.

    i.e. Klefbom’s advanced stats are worse because the Oilers have so many forwards who suck.

    Nurse is an average passer, so since he can do both adequately, he will always have an edge on advanced offensive stats and offense over Klefbom, but it would be far less noticiable if the Oilers were a good team.

    On the powerplay, where transporting the puck isn’t a requirement for Nurse or Klefbom, just passing, Klefbom looks slightly better than Nurse, because he is a slightly better passer.

  70. godot10 says:

    Larry Murphy was probably a better passer than Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey. But the ability of a defenseman to transport the puck is a transcedent skill if they are adequate at all the other offensive skills.

    It is why I think Heiskanen has the edge on the emerging class of young D.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    anjinsan:
    Draisaitl is a great player.However, both MacKinnon and Panarin were more valuable to their teams.McDavid is the most valuable player to the Oilers.The play-in round showed this at the no contest level.What would any GM in the league pay to acquire McDavid?What would any GM in the league pay to acquire Draisaitl?Nevertheless, Leon Draisaitl is a very great player, love him.

    The play-in had no effect on the voting – this is a regular season award (voted on before the playoffs started).

    I don’t agree with your post above.

    McDavid is the better and more valuable hockey player – end stop – I don’t think anyone would dispute that.

    That doesn’t mean that Leon didn’t have the better season or that he wasn’t more valuable to the Oilers this season than McDavid. In fact, I’m not sure how one can argue that McDavid was more valuable to the Oilers this season – Leon’s value to the Oilers THIS SEASON was most evident in his 2 P/G when McDavid was out – leading the team to a winning record at an important time.

  72. godot10 says:

    I think Draisaitl has shown more continuously improvement in his game, in improving his weaknesses, than McDavid has. Draisaitl has continued to grow his game. I think McDavid works more at improving what he is already good at, and Draisaitl has worked more on what he is not good at.

    McDavid and MacKinnon may be all they may ever be. Draisaitl may have another level yet.

    Draisaitl caught up to those two this year. My dumb money might be on the “turtle” Draisaitl to have the better next five years over those two.

  73. Reja says:

    pts2pndr: You have the right to your opinion but if you weigh it just on the skill and not the contract Draisaitl wins in my opinion hands down. He is one year young with one Fifty goal campaign which would have been two given a full season this year. MacKinnon will likely get current Draisaitl money plus in three years time. Not saying MacKinnon isn’t a fantastic player just that Draisaitl is the better player and it is a close call.

    Let say either Connor or Leon are lost for 40 Games which player do you think is missed more?

  74. pts2pndr says:

    Litke 94: I really only see Kassian and AA as the two worrying items there. I don’t see any issue with Archibald signing, and Mike Smith played excellent for a solid two months this year and was a big reason we went on a run to jump to 5th in the Conference.

    So if Kassian scores 20 while patrolling McDavids right wing you would stop worrying? Zack has done a marvellous job of getting his life away from the rink on track. Reality his performance on McDavid’s wing in the abbreviated season was in keeping with what he is getting payed. If he continues to produce at the same level while tightening up his defence all will be well. I don’t see why he his so many posters favourite whipping boy!

  75. godot10 says:

    pts2pndr: You have the right to your opinion but if you weigh it just on the skill and not the contract Draisaitl wins in my opinion hands down. He is one year young with one Fifty goal campaign which would have been two given a full season this year. MacKinnon will likely get current Draisaitl money plus in three years time. Not saying MacKinnon isn’t a fantastic player just that Draisaitl is the better player and it is a close call.

    FYI MacKinnon is about 50 days older than Draisaitl.

  76. godot10 says:

    pts2pndr: So if Kassian scores 20 while patrolling McDavids right wing you would stop worrying? Zack has done a marvellous job of getting his life away from the rink on track. Reality his performance on McDavid’s wing in the abbreviated season was in keeping with what he is getting payed. If he continues to produce at the same level while tightening up his defence all will be well. I don’t see why he his so many posters favourite whipping boy!

    Kassian got his retirement contract in January, and promptly retired (metaphorically).

  77. godot10 says:

    Reja: Let say either Connor or Leon are lost for 40 Games which player do you think is missed more?

    The scale is fairly balanced at this point. It was in McDavid\s favour, but is slowly but surely moving towards Draisaitl’s side.

  78. Ryan says:

    jp,

    I think you’re basically there.

    Players like McDavid can drive on ice shooting% as you mention.

    No player can contribute to on ice save percentage (with the obvious exception being the goalie) in a measurable way.

    Therefore, if player A consistently has a worse on ice sv% than player B, then in all probability, player A faced the higher end shooters/skill compared to player B.

    I know you cannot prove this with Puckiq data, but that doesn’t refute the obvious conclusion above.

    There are gradations of elite.

  79. leadfarmer says:

    Looks like Dallas got Tampa’s attention

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: That also applies to MacKinnon. At this moment with his 6.3 million for 3 more year contract this may make him more valuable.

    Well, yes, MacKinnon likely has the best non-ELC contract in the NHL.

    I would suggest that cap value should not come in to play when determining the awards (although that would be a fun discussion).

  81. leadfarmer says:

    Bohologo:
    Alas, we do not appear to have Lowetide archives going back to Draisaitl’s draft day.I do seem to recall that there was much debate about picking Leon or Sam Bennett, so if you vouched for the lad, or better yet predicted that he would one day win these trophies, my hat is off to you.

    Could you imagine if we drafted Bennett and left Drai for Calgary

  82. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Well, yes, MacKinnon likely has the best non-ELC contract in the NHL.

    I would suggest that cap value should not come in to play when determining the awards (although that would be a fun discussion).

    Contract just leads to who signed their contract longer ago most of time

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    J-Bo:
    If we end up with Debrusk and OEL (at a reduced price) for a first, Klefbom, and Russell, I think at minimum you have to say that is a good bet. It could provide vast improvement on the team as OEL should be an upgrade on Klef and DeBrusk would be an awesome get!

    Yup, the improves the team but it locks the Oilers in to having to lose the likes of Jones in the expansion draft or forcing a trade of one of Nurse, OEL, Bear or Jones.

    That needs to be factored in (in addition to the longer term cap implications of OEL, even at a reduced price) as Russell’s disposition helps for next season but lets not forget raises to Yamamoto and Nuge (and likely Bear) after than season and then Nurse, Jones, etc. the season after (not even taking in to account the potential for a guy like Benson “popping”.

  84. digger50 says:

    Congratulations to Leon. Fantastic.

    Always liked his play, and his style. He supported Connor, sat in his shadow and drive to get better. So nice to see him rewarded.

    With this award and these two players on the Oilers they must get some talented wingers. Leon’s line has shown the template, now find these guys for Connor. Please and thanks.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    A trade of Klefbom without experiencing what a Klefbom/Bear pairing could do makes me sad just to think about.

    I think Klef/Bear would be outstanding and Klef’s defensive and overall game would benefit greatly.

    As we’ve discussed before, there is a solid argument that Klef’s performance increases when he doesn’t have to be the primary puck-mover and offensive contributor – when he focuses more on defensive fundamentals, his overall game improves and he can be a plus defender in addition to his other attributes.

    We know Larsson defers to Klef the majority of the time and I think that’s to the detriment of Klef and the pairing.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: 5v5 2017-20
    =========

    Nurse 235 GP, 4477 minutes, 35-34-36% vs Elites, +2.63 / -2.68 /60, total cap hit $~7.3 million
    Klefbom 189 GP, 3310 minutes, 32-35-33% vs Elites, +2.11 / -2.78 /60, total cap hit $12.5 million

    Oscar is undeniably the dreamier of the two, but the numbers favour Darnell. At least, these ones do.

    Of note, in that period, Nurse played 39.9% of his time on ice with McDavid and Klef played 36%.

    At the end of the day, the difference wasn’t all McDavid zoom (although I’m sure the 3% was a material factor).

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Elgin R: Not surprised that LT chose Holloway as he has been talking him up for awhile.It is hard to evaluate Big 10 rookies with math as they do not play a lot.So, reviewing draft-1 year for a few players in this mock still available at 14:Holloway = 20.4 / Borque = 19.6 / Mercer = 22 / Lapierre = 21.8 / Zary = 26.3.Using draft year in OHL for Mysak = 30.1 (his Czech league draft-1 = 8)

    For fun reference in their draft-1 year:Benson = 18 / Lavoie = 21.6 / Yammy = 30.8

    Holloway is bigger and is listed as a better skater than all of the other available players.If the NHL follows this mock, then I am OK with drafting a big, fast western Canadian kid.Not a fan of trading down for more magic beans!

    Fair enough but, as per the last comment, is Holloway and more of a sure thing than Mysak? Maybe Mysak is one tier down as far as probability of making it but, then again, maybe not – I think they may be in a similar tier, I don’t know.

    Adding a 2nd high talent prospect if the drop off between isn’t material wouldn’t be a bad idea.

    The thing is, noone can say for certain which of the two first rounders will be the better player or arrive the quickest or provide the most team value.

  88. leadfarmer says:

    I agree with LTs mock draft pick of Holloway on the Athletic
    Seems to fit the philosophy that brought Broberg here.
    Tremendous athlete with off the charts potential but somehow has not put it together

  89. pts2pndr says:

    Reja: Let say either Connor or Leon are lost for 40 Games which player do you think is missed more?

    At this point in time based on the past season Leon. For approx six weeks of the season the best line in the NHL was Drai Yamamoto and Nuge. Then much to my chagrin and ostensibly for balance Nuge was moved to Connor’s line. In fairness to Connor he was rehabbing from what could have been a career ending injury. I think we are very lucky to have these two amazing young men leading the way. If Holland can find a winger to fit with Connor and Kassian the way that Leon did we could very quickly be scary good!

  90. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Fair enough but, as per the last comment, is Holloway and more of a sure thing than Mysak? Maybe Mysak is one tier down as far as probability of making it but, then again, maybe not – I think they may be in a similar tier, I don’t know.

    Adding a 2nd high talent prospect if the drop off between isn’t material wouldn’t be a bad idea.

    The thing is, noone can say for certain which of the two first rounders will be the better player or arrive the quickest or provide the most team value.

    The difference for me is that Holloway doesn’t have to play top six to have an NHL career. The way I see it is Holloway’s low end is third line winger where some of the other players that people feel may be available are more boom or bust. I think Holloway’s skills are almost a perfect fit for Connors future left winger.

  91. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bohologo:
    Alas, we do not appear to have Lowetide archives going back to Draisaitl’s draft day.I do seem to recall that there was much debate about picking Leon or Sam Bennett, so if you vouched for the lad, or better yet predicted that he would one day win these trophies, my hat is off to you.

    – I called him DasShitty: Thought he was a terrible pick….

    – Remember when he signed his contract and it was an “overpay”..

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eh Team: Good (life) experience for Benson, just to be put in a different environment.Much nicer than Bakersfield (which I understand is a bit of a dump)

    I hear the same about the Bake.

    As a practical point, it doesn’t really keep him out of the Bake. Benson will be returning for camp, whenever that is and, after that point, he will either be:

    (a) in Edmonton on the Oilers;
    (b) in Bakersfield on the Condors; or
    (c) in Edmonton on the re-callable taxi-squad if there is no AHL

  93. leadfarmer says:

    pts2pndr: The difference for me is that Holloway doesn’t have to play top six to have an NHL career. The way I see it is Holloway’s low end is third line winger where some of the other players that people feel may be available are more boom or bust. I think Holloway’s skills are almost a perfect fit for Connors future left winger.

    Big transition from Ajhl to ncaa
    Makar took some time too and he was a higher rated prospect

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Contract just leads to who signed their contract longer ago most of time

    I’m not sure what this means but, in my opinion, MacKinnon is better value for cap hit than any other non-ELC player in the NHL.

  95. Shane says:

    leadfarmer: Could you imagine if we drafted Bennett and left Drai for Calgary

    *shudders*

  96. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure what this means but, in my opinion, MacKinnon is better value for cap hit than any other non-ELC player in the NHL.

    This means that most value contracts are contracts signed years ago. Most top contracts are contracts signed years ago and the worst contracts are just signed
    What Panarin did this year I would not penalize him for just signing his contract. In fact I would think keeping that level of intensity just after cashing in is impressive
    If you’re crowning MVP based on contract then I give it to Barzal or Heiskanen

  97. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure what this means but, in my opinion, MacKinnon is better value for cap hit than any other non-ELC player in the NHL.

    For three more years and or until one of a number of young players sign there on entry level contract under the new normal economic conditions.

  98. leadfarmer says:

    Would be nice if Big 10 hockey started before the draft to get a look at Holloway
    The Badgers will suck but he should be at ppg

  99. who says:

    pts2pndr: The difference for me is that Holloway doesn’t have to play top six to have an NHL career. The way I see it is Holloway’s low end is third line winger where some of the other players that people feel may be available are more boom or bust. I think Holloway’s skills are almost a perfect fit for Connors future left winger.

    I have a vague memory of Holloway playing in the U18’s in Alberta in 2019. Is this correct?

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: I have a vague memory of Holloway playing in the U18’s in Alberta in 2019. Is this correct?

    Yup:

    https://www.eliteprospects.com/team/1617/canada-u18/2018-2019?tab=stats

  101. leadfarmer says:

    Watching the stars and this being a copycat league I can’t imagine Holloway will drop far after us if we don’t pick him

  102. Material Elvis says:

    Bohologo:
    Alas, we do not appear to have Lowetide archives going back to Draisaitl’s draft day.I do seem to recall that there was much debate about picking Leon or Sam Bennett, so if you vouched for the lad, or better yet predicted that he would one day win these trophies, my hat is off to you.

    Romulus’ Apotheosis led the Draisaitl bandwagon early on in his draft year. I think RA felt like a proud dad the day the Oilers drafted him.

  103. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup:

    https://www.eliteprospects.com/team/1617/canada-u18/2018-2019?tab=stats

    For some reason I remember him standing out. In a good way.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maybe he did vis-a-vis his draft class? Connor Zary is the only player ahead of him that wasn’t in last year’s draft class.

  105. pts2pndr says:

    who: I have a vague memory of Holloway playing in the U18’s in Alberta in 2019. Is this correct?

    Yes he did. Had to look up his stats 7 games 2G , 2A , 4P +3 10 pims

  106. jp says:

    godot10: It is Nurse’s ability to transport the puck. More goals are scored off the rush.

    godot10: i.e. Klefbom’s advanced stats are worse because the Oilers have so many forwards who suck.

    I agree Nurses’ skating is helping him create offence with McDavid. Maybe also helping to cover off the fast break the other way better than most.

    Klefbom, I’m not sure that’s an explanation for why his PDO has been worse than team average for his whole career.

  107. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Material Elvis: Romulus’ Apotheosis led the Draisaitl bandwagon early on in his draft year.I think RA felt like a proud dad the day the Oilers drafted him.

    Yes indeed, it was Rom who led the charge. In fact his frequent boosting of the player was part of the reason I felt compelled to make the road trip to Red Deer to watch him & his PA Raiders play, & beat, the Rebels in a sudden-death play-in game that spring of 2014. I wrote this scouting reportafterwards based on contemporaneous audio notes which remains a fascinating projection (in my opinion, mind) of the player he is today. Warts & all (note the end-of-shift references).

    One of my personal favourite posts I have ever written in my twelve years of blogging.

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/scouting-report-top-prospect-leon-draisaitl-impresses-in-biggest-game-of-the-season

  108. jp says:

    Ryan:
    jp,

    I think you’re basically there.

    Players like McDavid can drive on ice shooting% as you mention.

    No player can contribute to on ice save percentage (with the obvious exception being the goalie) in a measurable way.

    Therefore, if player A consistently has a worse on ice sv% than player B, then in all probability, player A faced the higher end shooters/skill compared to player B.

    I know you cannot prove this with Puckiq data, but that doesn’t refute the obvious conclusion above.

    There are gradations of elite.

    That’s a decent explanation.

    TOI vs elites doesn’t show it but NST and PuckIQ do have some data that supports it.

    FO/60 usually correlates with with difficult minutes.
    Klefbom led the team over the past 3 seasons with 59.5 FO/60
    Nurse was 3rd with 56.9 FO/60

    Dellow and Woodguy were/are all about OTF shifts as a way to shelter players.
    Klefbom had the fewest with 39.8/60
    Nurse had the 2nd fewest with 41.1/60

    DZ start %. Starting in the Dzone is more difficult.
    While Klefbom had a higher % of shifts start on a FO, Nurse had the more difficult zone starts.
    Klefbom 50.8 OZ%
    Nurse — 48.8OZ%

    So Klefbom did play slightly harder minutes, I’m not sure it’s enough to explain much of the PDO variance though. I kinda feel like “blind damn luck” is a more satisfying explanation.

    I don’t think there’s any question that players on the population level don’t affect on ice SV%. Still, seeing Klefbom have a PDO worse than his team 7 out of 7 years of his career makes me question to an extent (to be fair his low PDO is as much about SH% as SV%; and also to be fair I’m not trying to run Klefbom out of town, I’m just questioning whether he’s full value for his xGF%).

    All that said I guess I remain less than 100% certain that “no player can contribute to on ice save percentage”.

  109. Jaxon says:

    leadfarmer: Could you imagine if we drafted Bennett and left Drai for Calgary

    Or if we drafted Puljujarvi and left Tkachuk for Calgary… aww crap

  110. Reja says:

    Jaxon: Or if we drafted Puljujarvi and left Tkachuk for Calgary… aww crap

    All the bells and whistles were going off when the Finn passed on the Finn that’s like a Newfie not picking another Newfie it just doesn’t happen.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    As of now the Yarolsav Lokomotiv game is scheduled to go at 10am (mountain).

    I think there were 3 postponed in a row due to a team Covid outbreak – Konovolov isn’t listed as one of the 5 out with “injury” – hopefully he gets the start and keeps his hot start rolling.

    He could impact the Oilers roster 2021/22.

  112. rickithebear says:

    Woogie:
    Our top off talent is good.
    But you need top 125 fwd depth and Evg scoring depth in playoffs.

    Final four teams get wins with 2GA or less.
    2 ga in 4 series wins championship standard.

    When it comes to identifying elitedef Dmen EVGA/60 has a 85% capture rate yr to yr.
    For some elite Def Dmen video shows that they have their def numbers dragged down by the disappearing act of their def partners.

    19/20Top 218 EVTOI Dmen:
    Def rank:
    Bear 20th worst 3.26
    Nurse 28th worst 3.22
    Klefbom 31st worse 3.16
    Average of 3.213

    These 3 supplying 35 ev min in 2 Def pairs in a game.
    35/60 x 3.213 = 1.874 evg/gm
    That means In final 4 play our other def Pr and PK cannot give up any goals cause of the nightmare def these Homeplate abandoning rovers provide to their side.

    We are not a championship team with these three on the roster.
    Other top Dmen ranks.
    Sekera #1 1.15
    De Haas #3 1.33 Elite closed shot dman
    Russell #6 1.60 Elite closed shot dman
    Benning #11 1.79
    Larsson #91 2.53

    Our 100 evmin Dpairs:
    Russell – Benning 0.79
    Benning – Jones 1.22
    Russell – Klefbom 1.50
    Russell – Larsson 1.77
    Russell – Jones 1.95
    Larsson – Jones 1.96
    —————————— 2.00
    Klefbom – bear 2.03
    Larsson – Klefbom 2.65
    Klefbom – Pearson 2.94
    Nurse – bear 3.23
    Klefbom – Jones 5.16

    When rovers occupy forward space they are taking away forward pocession.
    Looking at all oilers skaters shooting% (330 ev min is top 14 fwds)
    Yamamotto 21.95%
    Draisaitl 17.76%
    Archibald 17.54%
    Kassian 16.13%
    Mcdavid 14.84%
    RNH 12.50%
    Sheehan 11.67%
    Jones 10.81%
    ——————- 10.53% is avg of leagues 31 x 12 fwds
    Khaira 9.38%
    Neal 8.75%
    Haas 7.55%
    Chaisson 7.46%
    Gagner 6.45
    Nygard 5.46
    Bear 4.44
    Nurse 3.23
    Benning 2.63
    Klefbom 2.46
    Larsson 1.67
    K. Russell 0.00

    The issue is the same when it comes to EVA/60
    All our Dmen are below league avg (.99)
    Benning our elite def dman is our 2nd best Eva/60 dman at .78

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yaroslav Lokomotiv didn’t “show up” for their game today and forfeited – wasn’t postponed like their last couple of games. The team has some Covid-issues.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    Buyout period starts in a few days (the 25th) – potential for the likes of MAF and Ludquist to be bought out (although I think those will be last resort options and only officialized near the end of the period if at all). Maybe Dubnyk as well.

    Unless the Oilers can pull a solid value trade for a younger goalie like Korpisalo, I’m generally not in favor of material assets going out for a goalie or material cap given. I have a feeling about Konovalov being ready for 1B in 2021/22 (the last year of Mikko’s contract) and would be fine with a one-year stop gap on a decent bet like Dubnyk or Stalock or Aaron Dell for example.

    There is some talk about MAF being bought out and returning to Pit to mentor Jarry.

    Would that not mean Casey DeSmith would be avaiable?

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