Leon

by Lowetide

The Oilers and NHL awards have a strange relationship. The club can’t win a Calder Memorial Trophy for love nor money, but have torched the competition since 1979 for other hardware. Tonight, Leon Draisaitl could join an epic group of Oilers. Tonight, he could join the giants who walked among us since the birth of Oilers nation in 1979. Tonight.

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

ART ROSS TROPHY

  • 7 Wayne Gretzky (1981 to 1987)
  • 2 Connor McDavid (2017, 2018)
  • 1 Leon Draisaitl (2020)

Oilers have been in the NHL for 40 seasons, and a player from the team has won the scoring championship 10 times. Diabolical.

HART MEMORIAL TROPHY

  • 8 Wayne Gretzky (1980 to 1987)
  • 1 Mark Messier (1990)
  • 1 Connor McDavid (2017) 

Draisaitl has a chance to join the most storied names in franchise history. This is pretty impressive.

TED LINDSAY AWARD

  • 5 Wayne Gretzky (1982, 1983, 1984, 1985 and 1987)
  • 1 Mark Messier (1990)
  • 2 Connor McDavid (2017, 2018)

This is considered to be one of the most prestigious awards of all, as fellow players vote for the winner. Again, Draisaitl is possibly in some legendary company here.

PARSING WORDS

Kurt Leavins had a fascinating OEL item in his Sunday column yesterday, with speculation that had some real nuance. Quoting Leavins: “Arizona would also be keenly aware than in order to move their big LHS D-man it would have to both retain salary and probably take one on a contract, as well.”

That’s interesting. So, if the trade is Kris Russell (who Kurt mentions) and the first-round pick for OEL at $6 million? Edmonton gives up the pick and not much else. I’m not sure Arizona would do that deal and am not certain Edmonton should do that deal. Put it this way: If the Oilers make this deal, they better be right.

Two questions arise: Is Klefbom/Nurse going? And are the Oilers going to have any draft picks at the end of this thing?

I think Klefbom would be the player dealt, he’s been in trade rumours before and the only reason to move this player would be concern over his health moving forward (he has missed 46 games over the last three seasons and played over 70 games just once in his six-year career). Boston was once interested in Klefbom, it wouldn’t be shocking if they were again. Currently their left side is up in the air with Torey Krug and Zdeno Chara both free agents. For Edmonton, a fleet two-way winger for McDavid’s line and or a first-round pick to replace the one heading to Arizona would be the likely ask. One problem: Boston doesn’t have a first-round selection. Maybe the trade is for RFA LW Jake DeBrusk.

A top-six of OEL-Larsson, Nurse-Bear and Jones-Benning/Bouchard would remain. OEL is durable and would be fantastic on the ice at the same time as McDavid or Draisaitl. Leavins’ scenario breathes life into the idea of acquiring OEL for what is a fairly low cost. Even with that, Holland and Tippett better be right on this: Another long, searing coda of ineffective play that would be longer than the Lucic concerto could have a harmful effect on the fan-management relationship.

An OEL acquisition fits Ken Holland’s own trade past top dead center. He acquired Chris Chelios in 1999, Dominik Hasek in 2001, Mathieu Schneider in 2003, Robert Lang in 2004. OEL in 2015 would be in the same family of trades.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We hit the ground running on a huge week this morning at 10, TSN1260. We’ll chat NFL Week 2 with Julian Edlow from Draft Kings, Erik Erlendsson from LightningInsider.com will chat about Tampa Bay’s approach to Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final against the Dallas Stars. Jason Gregor from TSN1260 will chat Oilers at the draft and trade table, SCF and Lebron. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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OriginalPouzar

Buyout period starts in a few days (the 25th) – potential for the likes of MAF and Ludquist to be bought out (although I think those will be last resort options and only officialized near the end of the period if at all). Maybe Dubnyk as well.

Unless the Oilers can pull a solid value trade for a younger goalie like Korpisalo, I’m generally not in favor of material assets going out for a goalie or material cap given. I have a feeling about Konovalov being ready for 1B in 2021/22 (the last year of Mikko’s contract) and would be fine with a one-year stop gap on a decent bet like Dubnyk or Stalock or Aaron Dell for example.

There is some talk about MAF being bought out and returning to Pit to mentor Jarry.

Would that not mean Casey DeSmith would be avaiable?

OriginalPouzar

Yaroslav Lokomotiv didn’t “show up” for their game today and forfeited – wasn’t postponed like their last couple of games. The team has some Covid-issues.

rickithebear

Woogie:
Our top off talent is good.
But you need top 125 fwd depth and Evg scoring depth in playoffs.

Final four teams get wins with 2GA or less.
2 ga in 4 series wins championship standard.

When it comes to identifying elitedef Dmen EVGA/60 has a 85% capture rate yr to yr.
For some elite Def Dmen video shows that they have their def numbers dragged down by the disappearing act of their def partners.

19/20Top 218 EVTOI Dmen:
Def rank:
Bear 20th worst 3.26
Nurse 28th worst 3.22
Klefbom 31st worse 3.16
Average of 3.213

These 3 supplying 35 ev min in 2 Def pairs in a game.
35/60 x 3.213 = 1.874 evg/gm
That means In final 4 play our other def Pr and PK cannot give up any goals cause of the nightmare def these Homeplate abandoning rovers provide to their side.

We are not a championship team with these three on the roster.
Other top Dmen ranks.
Sekera #1 1.15
De Haas #3 1.33 Elite closed shot dman
Russell #6 1.60 Elite closed shot dman
Benning #11 1.79
Larsson #91 2.53

Our 100 evmin Dpairs:
Russell – Benning 0.79
Benning – Jones 1.22
Russell – Klefbom 1.50
Russell – Larsson 1.77
Russell – Jones 1.95
Larsson – Jones 1.96
—————————— 2.00
Klefbom – bear 2.03
Larsson – Klefbom 2.65
Klefbom – Pearson 2.94
Nurse – bear 3.23
Klefbom – Jones 5.16

When rovers occupy forward space they are taking away forward pocession.
Looking at all oilers skaters shooting% (330 ev min is top 14 fwds)
Yamamotto 21.95%
Draisaitl 17.76%
Archibald 17.54%
Kassian 16.13%
Mcdavid 14.84%
RNH 12.50%
Sheehan 11.67%
Jones 10.81%
——————- 10.53% is avg of leagues 31 x 12 fwds
Khaira 9.38%
Neal 8.75%
Haas 7.55%
Chaisson 7.46%
Gagner 6.45
Nygard 5.46
Bear 4.44
Nurse 3.23
Benning 2.63
Klefbom 2.46
Larsson 1.67
K. Russell 0.00

The issue is the same when it comes to EVA/60
All our Dmen are below league avg (.99)
Benning our elite def dman is our 2nd best Eva/60 dman at .78

OriginalPouzar

As of now the Yarolsav Lokomotiv game is scheduled to go at 10am (mountain).

I think there were 3 postponed in a row due to a team Covid outbreak – Konovolov isn’t listed as one of the 5 out with “injury” – hopefully he gets the start and keeps his hot start rolling.

He could impact the Oilers roster 2021/22.

Reja

Jaxon: Or if we drafted Puljujarvi and left Tkachuk for Calgary… aww crap

All the bells and whistles were going off when the Finn passed on the Finn that’s like a Newfie not picking another Newfie it just doesn’t happen.

Jaxon

leadfarmer: Could you imagine if we drafted Bennett and left Drai for Calgary

Or if we drafted Puljujarvi and left Tkachuk for Calgary… aww crap

jp

Ryan:
jp,

I think you’re basically there.

Players like McDavid can drive on ice shooting% as you mention.

No player can contribute to on ice save percentage (with the obvious exception being the goalie) in a measurable way.

Therefore, if player A consistently has a worse on ice sv% than player B, then in all probability, player A faced the higher end shooters/skill compared to player B.

I know you cannot prove this with Puckiq data, but that doesn’t refute the obvious conclusion above.

There are gradations of elite.

That’s a decent explanation.

TOI vs elites doesn’t show it but NST and PuckIQ do have some data that supports it.

FO/60 usually correlates with with difficult minutes.
Klefbom led the team over the past 3 seasons with 59.5 FO/60
Nurse was 3rd with 56.9 FO/60

Dellow and Woodguy were/are all about OTF shifts as a way to shelter players.
Klefbom had the fewest with 39.8/60
Nurse had the 2nd fewest with 41.1/60

DZ start %. Starting in the Dzone is more difficult.
While Klefbom had a higher % of shifts start on a FO, Nurse had the more difficult zone starts.
Klefbom 50.8 OZ%
Nurse — 48.8OZ%

So Klefbom did play slightly harder minutes, I’m not sure it’s enough to explain much of the PDO variance though. I kinda feel like “blind damn luck” is a more satisfying explanation.

I don’t think there’s any question that players on the population level don’t affect on ice SV%. Still, seeing Klefbom have a PDO worse than his team 7 out of 7 years of his career makes me question to an extent (to be fair his low PDO is as much about SH% as SV%; and also to be fair I’m not trying to run Klefbom out of town, I’m just questioning whether he’s full value for his xGF%).

All that said I guess I remain less than 100% certain that “no player can contribute to on ice save percentage”.

Bruce McCurdy

Material Elvis: Romulus’ Apotheosis led the Draisaitl bandwagon early on in his draft year.I think RA felt like a proud dad the day the Oilers drafted him.

Yes indeed, it was Rom who led the charge. In fact his frequent boosting of the player was part of the reason I felt compelled to make the road trip to Red Deer to watch him & his PA Raiders play, & beat, the Rebels in a sudden-death play-in game that spring of 2014. I wrote this scouting reportafterwards based on contemporaneous audio notes which remains a fascinating projection (in my opinion, mind) of the player he is today. Warts & all (note the end-of-shift references).

One of my personal favourite posts I have ever written in my twelve years of blogging.

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/scouting-report-top-prospect-leon-draisaitl-impresses-in-biggest-game-of-the-season

jp

godot10: It is Nurse’s ability to transport the puck. More goals are scored off the rush.

godot10: i.e. Klefbom’s advanced stats are worse because the Oilers have so many forwards who suck.

I agree Nurses’ skating is helping him create offence with McDavid. Maybe also helping to cover off the fast break the other way better than most.

Klefbom, I’m not sure that’s an explanation for why his PDO has been worse than team average for his whole career.

pts2pndr

who: I have a vague memory of Holloway playing in the U18’s in Alberta in 2019. Is this correct?

Yes he did. Had to look up his stats 7 games 2G , 2A , 4P +3 10 pims

OriginalPouzar

Maybe he did vis-a-vis his draft class? Connor Zary is the only player ahead of him that wasn’t in last year’s draft class.

who

OriginalPouzar: Yup:

https://www.eliteprospects.com/team/1617/canada-u18/2018-2019?tab=stats

For some reason I remember him standing out. In a good way.

Material Elvis

Bohologo:
Alas, we do not appear to have Lowetide archives going back to Draisaitl’s draft day.I do seem to recall that there was much debate about picking Leon or Sam Bennett, so if you vouched for the lad, or better yet predicted that he would one day win these trophies, my hat is off to you.

Romulus’ Apotheosis led the Draisaitl bandwagon early on in his draft year. I think RA felt like a proud dad the day the Oilers drafted him.

leadfarmer

Watching the stars and this being a copycat league I can’t imagine Holloway will drop far after us if we don’t pick him

OriginalPouzar

who: I have a vague memory of Holloway playing in the U18’s in Alberta in 2019. Is this correct?

Yup:

https://www.eliteprospects.com/team/1617/canada-u18/2018-2019?tab=stats

who

pts2pndr: The difference for me is that Holloway doesn’t have to play top six to have an NHL career. The way I see it is Holloway’s low end is third line winger where some of the other players that people feel may be available are more boom or bust. I think Holloway’s skills are almost a perfect fit for Connors future left winger.

I have a vague memory of Holloway playing in the U18’s in Alberta in 2019. Is this correct?

leadfarmer

Would be nice if Big 10 hockey started before the draft to get a look at Holloway
The Badgers will suck but he should be at ppg

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure what this means but, in my opinion, MacKinnon is better value for cap hit than any other non-ELC player in the NHL.

For three more years and or until one of a number of young players sign there on entry level contract under the new normal economic conditions.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure what this means but, in my opinion, MacKinnon is better value for cap hit than any other non-ELC player in the NHL.

This means that most value contracts are contracts signed years ago. Most top contracts are contracts signed years ago and the worst contracts are just signed
What Panarin did this year I would not penalize him for just signing his contract. In fact I would think keeping that level of intensity just after cashing in is impressive
If you’re crowning MVP based on contract then I give it to Barzal or Heiskanen

Shane

leadfarmer: Could you imagine if we drafted Bennett and left Drai for Calgary

*shudders*

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Contract just leads to who signed their contract longer ago most of time

I’m not sure what this means but, in my opinion, MacKinnon is better value for cap hit than any other non-ELC player in the NHL.

leadfarmer

pts2pndr: The difference for me is that Holloway doesn’t have to play top six to have an NHL career. The way I see it is Holloway’s low end is third line winger where some of the other players that people feel may be available are more boom or bust. I think Holloway’s skills are almost a perfect fit for Connors future left winger.

Big transition from Ajhl to ncaa
Makar took some time too and he was a higher rated prospect

OriginalPouzar

Eh Team: Good (life) experience for Benson, just to be put in a different environment.Much nicer than Bakersfield (which I understand is a bit of a dump)

I hear the same about the Bake.

As a practical point, it doesn’t really keep him out of the Bake. Benson will be returning for camp, whenever that is and, after that point, he will either be:

(a) in Edmonton on the Oilers;
(b) in Bakersfield on the Condors; or
(c) in Edmonton on the re-callable taxi-squad if there is no AHL

Kinger_Oil.redux

Bohologo:
Alas, we do not appear to have Lowetide archives going back to Draisaitl’s draft day.I do seem to recall that there was much debate about picking Leon or Sam Bennett, so if you vouched for the lad, or better yet predicted that he would one day win these trophies, my hat is off to you.

– I called him DasShitty: Thought he was a terrible pick….

– Remember when he signed his contract and it was an “overpay”..

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar: Fair enough but, as per the last comment, is Holloway and more of a sure thing than Mysak? Maybe Mysak is one tier down as far as probability of making it but, then again, maybe not – I think they may be in a similar tier, I don’t know.

Adding a 2nd high talent prospect if the drop off between isn’t material wouldn’t be a bad idea.

The thing is, noone can say for certain which of the two first rounders will be the better player or arrive the quickest or provide the most team value.

The difference for me is that Holloway doesn’t have to play top six to have an NHL career. The way I see it is Holloway’s low end is third line winger where some of the other players that people feel may be available are more boom or bust. I think Holloway’s skills are almost a perfect fit for Connors future left winger.

pts2pndr

Reja: Let say either Connor or Leon are lost for 40 Games which player do you think is missed more?

At this point in time based on the past season Leon. For approx six weeks of the season the best line in the NHL was Drai Yamamoto and Nuge. Then much to my chagrin and ostensibly for balance Nuge was moved to Connor’s line. In fairness to Connor he was rehabbing from what could have been a career ending injury. I think we are very lucky to have these two amazing young men leading the way. If Holland can find a winger to fit with Connor and Kassian the way that Leon did we could very quickly be scary good!

leadfarmer

I agree with LTs mock draft pick of Holloway on the Athletic
Seems to fit the philosophy that brought Broberg here.
Tremendous athlete with off the charts potential but somehow has not put it together

OriginalPouzar

Elgin R: Not surprised that LT chose Holloway as he has been talking him up for awhile.It is hard to evaluate Big 10 rookies with math as they do not play a lot.So, reviewing draft-1 year for a few players in this mock still available at 14:Holloway = 20.4 / Borque = 19.6 / Mercer = 22 / Lapierre = 21.8 / Zary = 26.3.Using draft year in OHL for Mysak = 30.1 (his Czech league draft-1 = 8)

For fun reference in their draft-1 year:Benson = 18 / Lavoie = 21.6 / Yammy = 30.8

Holloway is bigger and is listed as a better skater than all of the other available players.If the NHL follows this mock, then I am OK with drafting a big, fast western Canadian kid.Not a fan of trading down for more magic beans!

Fair enough but, as per the last comment, is Holloway and more of a sure thing than Mysak? Maybe Mysak is one tier down as far as probability of making it but, then again, maybe not – I think they may be in a similar tier, I don’t know.

Adding a 2nd high talent prospect if the drop off between isn’t material wouldn’t be a bad idea.

The thing is, noone can say for certain which of the two first rounders will be the better player or arrive the quickest or provide the most team value.

OriginalPouzar

Bruce McCurdy: 5v5 2017-20
=========

Nurse 235 GP, 4477 minutes, 35-34-36% vs Elites, +2.63 / -2.68 /60, total cap hit $~7.3 million
Klefbom 189 GP, 3310 minutes, 32-35-33% vs Elites, +2.11 / -2.78 /60, total cap hit $12.5 million

Oscar is undeniably the dreamier of the two, but the numbers favour Darnell. At least, these ones do.

Of note, in that period, Nurse played 39.9% of his time on ice with McDavid and Klef played 36%.

At the end of the day, the difference wasn’t all McDavid zoom (although I’m sure the 3% was a material factor).

OriginalPouzar

A trade of Klefbom without experiencing what a Klefbom/Bear pairing could do makes me sad just to think about.

I think Klef/Bear would be outstanding and Klef’s defensive and overall game would benefit greatly.

As we’ve discussed before, there is a solid argument that Klef’s performance increases when he doesn’t have to be the primary puck-mover and offensive contributor – when he focuses more on defensive fundamentals, his overall game improves and he can be a plus defender in addition to his other attributes.

We know Larsson defers to Klef the majority of the time and I think that’s to the detriment of Klef and the pairing.

digger50

Congratulations to Leon. Fantastic.

Always liked his play, and his style. He supported Connor, sat in his shadow and drive to get better. So nice to see him rewarded.

With this award and these two players on the Oilers they must get some talented wingers. Leon’s line has shown the template, now find these guys for Connor. Please and thanks.

OriginalPouzar

J-Bo:
If we end up with Debrusk and OEL (at a reduced price) for a first, Klefbom, and Russell, I think at minimum you have to say that is a good bet. It could provide vast improvement on the team as OEL should be an upgrade on Klef and DeBrusk would be an awesome get!

Yup, the improves the team but it locks the Oilers in to having to lose the likes of Jones in the expansion draft or forcing a trade of one of Nurse, OEL, Bear or Jones.

That needs to be factored in (in addition to the longer term cap implications of OEL, even at a reduced price) as Russell’s disposition helps for next season but lets not forget raises to Yamamoto and Nuge (and likely Bear) after than season and then Nurse, Jones, etc. the season after (not even taking in to account the potential for a guy like Benson “popping”.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: Well, yes, MacKinnon likely has the best non-ELC contract in the NHL.

I would suggest that cap value should not come in to play when determining the awards (although that would be a fun discussion).

Contract just leads to who signed their contract longer ago most of time

leadfarmer

Bohologo:
Alas, we do not appear to have Lowetide archives going back to Draisaitl’s draft day.I do seem to recall that there was much debate about picking Leon or Sam Bennett, so if you vouched for the lad, or better yet predicted that he would one day win these trophies, my hat is off to you.

Could you imagine if we drafted Bennett and left Drai for Calgary

OriginalPouzar

flyfish1168: That also applies to MacKinnon. At this moment with his 6.3 million for 3 more year contract this may make him more valuable.

Well, yes, MacKinnon likely has the best non-ELC contract in the NHL.

I would suggest that cap value should not come in to play when determining the awards (although that would be a fun discussion).

leadfarmer

Looks like Dallas got Tampa’s attention

Bohologo

Alas, we do not appear to have Lowetide archives going back to Draisaitl’s draft day. I do seem to recall that there was much debate about picking Leon or Sam Bennett, so if you vouched for the lad, or better yet predicted that he would one day win these trophies, my hat is off to you.

Ryan

jp,

I think you’re basically there.

Players like McDavid can drive on ice shooting% as you mention.

No player can contribute to on ice save percentage (with the obvious exception being the goalie) in a measurable way.

Therefore, if player A consistently has a worse on ice sv% than player B, then in all probability, player A faced the higher end shooters/skill compared to player B.

I know you cannot prove this with Puckiq data, but that doesn’t refute the obvious conclusion above.

There are gradations of elite.

godot10

Reja: Let say either Connor or Leon are lost for 40 Games which player do you think is missed more?

The scale is fairly balanced at this point. It was in McDavid\s favour, but is slowly but surely moving towards Draisaitl’s side.

godot10

pts2pndr: So if Kassian scores 20 while patrolling McDavids right wing you would stop worrying? Zack has done a marvellous job of getting his life away from the rink on track. Reality his performance on McDavid’s wing in the abbreviated season was in keeping with what he is getting payed. If he continues to produce at the same level while tightening up his defence all will be well. I don’t see why he his so many posters favourite whipping boy!

Kassian got his retirement contract in January, and promptly retired (metaphorically).

godot10

pts2pndr: You have the right to your opinion but if you weigh it just on the skill and not the contract Draisaitl wins in my opinion hands down. He is one year young with one Fifty goal campaign which would have been two given a full season this year. MacKinnon will likely get current Draisaitl money plus in three years time. Not saying MacKinnon isn’t a fantastic player just that Draisaitl is the better player and it is a close call.

FYI MacKinnon is about 50 days older than Draisaitl.

pts2pndr

Litke 94: I really only see Kassian and AA as the two worrying items there. I don’t see any issue with Archibald signing, and Mike Smith played excellent for a solid two months this year and was a big reason we went on a run to jump to 5th in the Conference.

So if Kassian scores 20 while patrolling McDavids right wing you would stop worrying? Zack has done a marvellous job of getting his life away from the rink on track. Reality his performance on McDavid’s wing in the abbreviated season was in keeping with what he is getting payed. If he continues to produce at the same level while tightening up his defence all will be well. I don’t see why he his so many posters favourite whipping boy!

Reja

pts2pndr: You have the right to your opinion but if you weigh it just on the skill and not the contract Draisaitl wins in my opinion hands down. He is one year young with one Fifty goal campaign which would have been two given a full season this year. MacKinnon will likely get current Draisaitl money plus in three years time. Not saying MacKinnon isn’t a fantastic player just that Draisaitl is the better player and it is a close call.

Let say either Connor or Leon are lost for 40 Games which player do you think is missed more?

godot10

I think Draisaitl has shown more continuously improvement in his game, in improving his weaknesses, than McDavid has. Draisaitl has continued to grow his game. I think McDavid works more at improving what he is already good at, and Draisaitl has worked more on what he is not good at.

McDavid and MacKinnon may be all they may ever be. Draisaitl may have another level yet.

Draisaitl caught up to those two this year. My dumb money might be on the “turtle” Draisaitl to have the better next five years over those two.

OriginalPouzar

anjinsan:
Draisaitl is a great player.However, both MacKinnon and Panarin were more valuable to their teams.McDavid is the most valuable player to the Oilers.The play-in round showed this at the no contest level.What would any GM in the league pay to acquire McDavid?What would any GM in the league pay to acquire Draisaitl?Nevertheless, Leon Draisaitl is a very great player, love him.

The play-in had no effect on the voting – this is a regular season award (voted on before the playoffs started).

I don’t agree with your post above.

McDavid is the better and more valuable hockey player – end stop – I don’t think anyone would dispute that.

That doesn’t mean that Leon didn’t have the better season or that he wasn’t more valuable to the Oilers this season than McDavid. In fact, I’m not sure how one can argue that McDavid was more valuable to the Oilers this season – Leon’s value to the Oilers THIS SEASON was most evident in his 2 P/G when McDavid was out – leading the team to a winning record at an important time.

godot10

Larry Murphy was probably a better passer than Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey. But the ability of a defenseman to transport the puck is a transcedent skill if they are adequate at all the other offensive skills.

It is why I think Heiskanen has the edge on the emerging class of young D.

godot10

godot10: It is Nurse’s ability to transport the puck.More goals are scored off the rush.

If the Oilers forwards were better, it would help the pass first D even things out. But many Oilers forwards are awful, so it tilts the “advantage” towards D who can transport the puck.

A team needs diversity on D, the ability to transport, and the ability to pass.

i.e. Klefbom’s advanced stats are worse because the Oilers have so many forwards who suck.

Nurse is an average passer, so since he can do both adequately, he will always have an edge on advanced offensive stats and offense over Klefbom, but it would be far less noticiable if the Oilers were a good team.

On the powerplay, where transporting the puck isn’t a requirement for Nurse or Klefbom, just passing, Klefbom looks slightly better than Nurse, because he is a slightly better passer.

godot10

jp:
Why should they upgrade on Larsson?

Larsson 49.3 xGF% (43.0 GF%)
Klefbom 50.3 xGF% (43.1 GF%)
Nurse — 49.3 xGF% (49.5 GF%)

On Klefbom vs Nurse, a few of things.

1) This started with: “I don’t know why EDM would entertain a Klefbom trade over a Nurse trade.”

My answer was actual GF and GA. I think that’s a fair and quite likely accurate answer. Even if you or I believe in the process more than the results that doesn’t mean Holland or Tippett do too.

2) I believe in the process/underlying numbers more than most, but when a player has real results that consistently deviate from the underlying stuff (as Klefbom’s do) then I start to wonder.

I want to believe the 50.3 xGF% truly represents Klefbom, but his PDO has been worse than the Oilers’ every year of his career. I don’t believe individual defensemen control on ice shooting or SV%, but I can’t entirely ignore that Klefbom’s been remarkably and consistently unlucky. I guess I’m kind of splitting the difference between GF% and xGF% in thinking about Klefbom.

3) If you got as far as xGF% and SH% with McDavid you must have noticed it’s just as much SV%.

McDavid+Nurse- 10.9 .917 1.026 (SH%, SV%, PDO)
McDavid without 10.2 .908 1.002
Nurse without —– 6.9 .916 .985
Both off ————- 5.9 .921 .980

McDavid+Klefbom 9.6 .901 .997
McDavid without- 10.9 .916 1.021
Klefbom without — 5.1 .917 .968
Both off ————- 6.8 .920 .988

This could all be luck. But since Klefbom is dragging down all the percentages, with McDavid or independent of him, I think he *may* be at least partly responsible.

The Nurse effect looks more like it might be luck. But we know certain players (like McDavid) can drive on ice SH%. Likewise some combinations of players can drive percentages, it’s possible the McDavid-Nurse number represents something Nurse is doing rather than being all fluke. Or maybe not.

It is Nurse’s ability to transport the puck. More goals are scored off the rush.

If the Oilers forwards were better, it would help the pass first D even things out. But many Oilers forwards are awful, so it tilts the “advantage” towards D who can transport the puck.

A team needs diversity on D, the ability to transport, and the ability to pass.

godot10

London Jon:
So we had 3 future Hart winners on the roster when PC took over…

Hockey Night in Canada should do interviews with former GM’s under the theme “What was your greatest eff-up”?

With Chiarelli it could be a weekly feature for a season to cover them all.