Higher Ground

Photo by Mark Williams

At training camp, prospects are trying to stand out in a crowd. It will be extremely difficult for any AHL level players to get traction at Oilers training camp when it next arrives. There will be little time to climb the depth chart.

There MAY be quality there at camp, Bouchard and Benson and Marody and others, but the window is hours and days as opposed to weeks and weeks.

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MARODY

He started bubble camp on the ‘sixth’ line with Tyler Benson and Ryan McLeod, that trio having some impressive scrimmage moments in camp. Marody’s two training camps (2018 and 2019 fall) saw solid performances (in 5 games over those two seasons, he scored 1-2-3 at five on five in 56:04 (3.21 per 60). All of his possession stats are positive, and his regular season performance (six games in 2018-19) remains intriguing and screaming for a larger sample six. In those six games, Marody didn’t post any points, but his line won the shot share 24-16 (60 percent) with Marody’s five takeaways/no giveaways performance forever intriguing.

I don’t know if he’s fast enough to play center and don’t know if there’s room on right wing. I do know that his competition, which includes Gaetan Haas at center and Alex Chiasson on right wing, are in better spots entering a short training camp. Marody has been loaned to the Austrian League, which isn’t perfect but it’s ice and practice and games and staying in shape. No one is going to have an easy go if it during the time of Covid-19, but there are jobs to be won, careers to be forged, and opportunities for those who pursue their goals. Cooper Marody has a chance.

This is not a surprise, in my opinion. As I understand the deal, Lavoie and his agent wanted a bigger challenge than the QMJHL would offer in 2020-21, and pursued a deal with Rogle (SHL). Lavoie auditioned, the club felt they could go in another direction and we are here. You can view this as a negative, but I love the fact this young man believes in himself and his abilities. Keep reaching for the stars Raphael Lavoie, and keep on pushing for higher ground.

This is probably the top player to watch this year, we know Evan Bouchard’s ability but Broberg is an emerging player in the SHL. By minutes he appears to be on the third pair (with Jacob Andersson). He picked up a second assist later in the game, and as of mid-second period had played over 10 minutes.

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169 Responses to "Higher Ground"

  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    *****WARNING SPAM*****

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  2. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Broberg with 2 assists so far on the game. One on a PP and one right after a PP. Another Skelleftea PP coming up with them effectively being 3/3 (technically 2/3).

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    In the 2nd period and Broberg has just added a goal to his two assists.

    Nothing spectacular on the first Broberg assist (on the PP) but a nice job walking the line and then a nice pass back against the grain:

    https://twitter.com/cmoresport/status/1307314523070771200

  4. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Broberg with a goal! 1G 2A on the night with a fucking amazing PP night for them!

  5. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    In the 2nd period and Broberg has just added a goal to his two assists.

    Nothing spectacular on the first Broberg assist (on the PP) but a nice job walking the line and then a nice pass back against the grain:

    https://twitter.com/cmoresport/status/1307314523070771200

    I love what this likely means for his deployment at least early on! Being part of a strong PP can make a HUGE difference for overall offensive confidence!

  6. Lowetide says:

    Now Broberg has scored, going 1-2-3 so far in Game 1 of the season.

  7. Munny says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Broberg with a goal! 1G 2A on the night with a fucking amazing PP night for them!

    Nice!

  8. Munny says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: I love what this likely means for his deployment at least early on! Being part of a strong PP can make a HUGE difference for overall offensive confidence!

    Yeah, that’s exactly what we wanted to see out of this season. PP time. And he’s earned the coach’s confidence (too) there right away on opening night. Lovely arrows.

  9. Woogie63 says:

    Provorov, Makar, Heiskanen, Hughes, Sergachev point to new crop of young mobile defenseman making a significant impact in the NHL.

    The Oilers has very decent group of young impact defenseman (I not sure Bouchard skates like this group, but should be impactful) …. can we get 3 or 4 excellent defenseman from;

    Broberg, Bouchard, Samorukov, Lagesson, and our young NHL pros Jones, Bear, Nurse

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Broberg’s goal – a blast from the point:

    https://twitter.com/skelleftea_aik/status/1307329955429314562

  11. Jiminey says:

    Somebody ate their Wheaties this morning! At this rate he will surpass last years offensive output in 3 games! He is making Holland look like a genius for picking him where he did.

  12. Reja says:

    Looks like Broberg into it let’s trade Nurse while we can get something of value back.

  13. jp says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Broberg with a goal! 1G 2A on the night with a fucking amazing PP night for them!

    The elite ones arrive early, they say.

  14. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Go Bro Go!

    Only one game but the trajectory continues!

    My suspicion is Bro will ultimately, in due course, replace Klef…

  15. dustrock says:

    Sorry what happened with Lavoie? He was cut?

  16. Material Elvis says:

    Lundell’s first goal of the season was further down that Twitter highlight package. He looks like Barkov-lite body-wise. He’s not right handed but I would be very happy with him as the future 3C. Decent set of hands and killer on the face offs. Playing style reminds me of Bo Horvat.

  17. leadfarmer says:

    Sounds like teams are having trouble signing their soon to be UFA.
    Players not going for the flat cap discount
    Teams are going to run out of space in a hurry
    There will be good players available for cheap once after the first few days of free agency eat up cap space

  18. leadfarmer says:

    While I liked Zegras better in that draft spot Broberg was definitely the shoot for the moon candidate

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Was a bit of a scare as Broberg left the game after taking a hit but he’s back.

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    Sorry what happened with Lavoie? He was cut?

    The article was really specific on why he left – players’ choice or that of the team.

    Gregor has been advising that his contract was tryout but, as of late last night, he was slated to be in the lineup today so who knows.

  21. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    leadfarmer:
    Sounds like teams are having trouble signing their soon to be UFA.
    Players not going for the flat cap discount
    Teams are going to run out of space in a hurry
    There will be good players available for cheap once after the first few days of free agency eat up cap space

    Totally
    Keep the powder dry and wait for the free agency frenzy
    Nibbling at the edges may never taste so good as it could this year with some “modest” upgrades that could likely be more significant than in previous years.

  22. Jiminey says:

    Did everyone get their 50/50 tickets for tonight?

  23. newsy lalonde says:

    Really nice to see Broberg start off well. Getting nearly 40% of his 2019-20 scoring in his first game is kinda hilarious, too. Having a big offensive season in Sweden would be really exciting for his development, especially with his skating already so good.

  24. leadfarmer says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Totally
    Keep the powder dry and wait for the free agency frenzy
    Nibbling at the edges may never taste so good as it could this year with some “modest” upgrades that could likely be more significant than in previous years.

    Between that and teams actively dumping salary
    If you have a bit of cap space that you are willing to use you will be able to get a good player

  25. Woogie63 says:

    Nurse- Bouchard
    Broberg-Bear
    Samorukov-Jones
    Lagesson

    Ricki’s dream set of dman

  26. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Broberg finishes the night 2-0 on-ice, 1g 2a (2 on the PP) and 2 SOG as the #3 D in TOI with 21:37. Seems like he’s primed to fill the Berglund role this year.

    In other semi-related news, potential late-round flier or Euro UFA LD Adam Wilsby finished his first SHL game 0-1 on-ice w/ 3 SOG (6 attempts) in 12:54. Also took 2 penalties. Not the best first game, but I’ll be keeping an eye on him after his Allsvenskan performance last year. Just turned 20 in August.

  27. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    leadfarmer: Between that and teams actively dumping salary
    If you have a bit of cap space that you are willing to use you will be able to get a good player

    Unless you’re Montreal who has so far paid St Louis for a 4.3mil backup and spent 3.5mil for 4 years on a bottom pairing Dman.

  28. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    https://twitter.com/AzorcanGlobal/status/1307346823636381696

    Young Draisaitl looks like the kinda friend that’d murder your pet frog using your pet rock and then hide both in your mom’s jewelry box.

  29. JOFA says:

    Woogie63:
    Nurse- Bouchard
    Broberg-Bear
    Samorukov-Jones
    Lagesson

    Ricki’s dream set of dman

    Throw in Barrie 😉

  30. Clarkenstein says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Unless you’re Montreal who has so far paid St Louis for a 4.3mil backup and spent 3.5mil for 4 years on a bottom pairing Dman.

    Yeah what GM would ever do something that stupid?? Oh… wait… (shuffles off, head hanging)

  31. Material Elvis says:

    Put me in the camp with those who did not care for the Broberg pick last year. But I can admit when I’m wrong and glad to be wrong in this instance. He played his entire draft year as a 17 year old, which should be noted. So if they decide to take Braden Schneider this year, I’ll still be upset that they didn’t take a forward, but will be more understanding.

  32. Woogie63 says:

    Can Tampa Bay be expected to win the SC without a Finnish player on the roster? What was that GM thinking at the trade deadline?

  33. Material Elvis says:

    Now would be on board with any of Jarvis, Askarov, Lundell, or Schneider. The math on Holloway is too much of a red flag and Guhle’s position is the organization’s greatest strength so those two are a pass for me.

  34. Material Elvis says:

    Damnit! Schneider is one of the oldest players in the draft. His draft-1 stats are not that impressive. Pass!

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Well, one Philip Broberg may gain traction, not at camp, but in the beginning months of the SHL.

    I know we need to temper expectations but what a start to the 2020/21 season for Broberg.

    Starting with a great phase 3 in Edmonton – just practice and intra-squad games but he showed that he will indeed belong.

    Heads back to Sweden and has a very strong exhibition season, playing top pairing and with some PP time.

    Will that last in to the regular season? Well, game one he plays top pairing and on the PP and puts up 1G/2A in a 5-4 OT win.

    That is a start, isn’t it?

    ————–

    Pre-pandemic, the plan was for Broberg to come to Oilers training camp and then head back to Skelleftea.

    The plan now has been to play in Seklefftea for the year and then maybe come over after the season is over as the NHL will go longer than the SHL.

    I wonder if the timing of the World Juniors in late December and January will lineup with Oilers training camp and perhaps he does stay for training camp before heading back over to finish the season in Sweden…… OR….. Perhaps……. if game 1 is a sign of things to come, maybe he doesn’t head back to Sweden after the world juniors…..

    OK OP, temper those expectations.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cooper Marody does have a chance as he’s a skilled forward and this team lacks skilled forwards. He’s a natural center and a right shot center to boot.

    The question is if he’s an NHL player.

    He sure looked like he could be one after his rookie season, much less so in his second season but, of course, he was in injury recovery mode essentially all year long.

    This season, starting now in Austria, is massive for Marody and a potential NHL career. He himself says he is finally feeling 100% normal – well, if that’s the case, I expect him to light up the Austrian league, come to camp with full confidence and battle for a roster spot.

    Will his legs allow him to win that spot? That’s up to him, his ability to acknowledge that, yes, skating now is holding him back, working his ass off and gaining a step.

    Put down the guitar and pick up the skating!

  37. J-Bo says:

    Jiminey:
    Did everyone get their 50/50 tickets for tonight?

    Thanks for this! Just got mine. This is the most excitement an Oilers fan can have these playoffs.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    LT, where are you getting TOI stats for today’s Skelleftea game?

  39. JOFA says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Cooper Marody does have a chance as he’s a skilled forward and this team lacks skilled forwards.He’s a natural center and a right shot center to boot.

    The question is if he’s an NHL player.

    He sure looked like he could be one after his rookie season, much less so in his second season but, of course, he was in injury recovery mode essentially all year long.

    This season, starting now in Austria, is massive for Marody and a potential NHL career.He himself says he is finally feeling 100% normal – well, if that’s the case, I expect him to light up the Austrian league, come to camp with full confidence and battle for a roster spot.

    Will his legs allow him to win that spot? That’s up to him, his ability to acknowledge that, yes, skating now is holding him back, working his ass off and gaining a step.

    Put down the guitar and pick up the skating!

    Do you recommend the same for Benson?

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Broberg played 21:38 today, third on the team.

    Sammy didn’t hit the scoresheet of Moscow and played just over 15 min.

  41. Woogie63 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Cooper Marody does have a chance as he’s a skilled forward and this team lacks skilled forwards.He’s a natural center and a right shot center to boot.

    The question is if he’s an NHL player.

    He sure looked like he could be one after his rookie season, much less so in his second season but, of course, he was in injury recovery mode essentially all year long.

    This season, starting now in Austria, is massive for Marody and a potential NHL career.He himself says he is finally feeling 100% normal – well, if that’s the case, I expect him to light up the Austrian league, come to camp with full confidence and battle for a roster spot.

    Will his legs allow him to win that spot? That’s up to him, his ability to acknowledge that, yes, skating now is holding him back, working his ass off and gaining a step.

    Put down the guitar and pick up the skating!

    I agree (and hope) for this – the key for Marody in Europe is who does he play with and what is the role? If he is 1C, PP and plays with the teams best talent and he rips it up that is good arrows. If he plays 3C with third liners and I am not sure it says anything.

    You commented once that we can’t gamble on Marody to be a NHL 3C, I think I agree with that. It will be interesting – does Holland hedge a Marody 3C bet with a $1M veteran signing (Spezza) or does drop bait and go for someone on Woodguy’s list?

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    JOFA: Do you recommend the same for Benson?

    Do I recommend that Benson continue to work on his skating? Yes, of course I do.

  43. JOFA says:

    OriginalPouzar: Do I recommend that Benson continue to work on his skating?Yes, of course I do.

    Let’s hope so. Benson can’t even get a job in Austria lol 😉

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    newsy lalonde:
    Really nice to see Broberg start off well. Getting nearly 40% of his 2019-20 scoring in his first game is kinda hilarious, too. Having a big offensive season in Sweden would be really exciting for his development, especially with his skating already so good.

    Having a big offensive season, even at 0.5 P/G would be amazing.

    For me, the expected season was full time top 4 minutes, PK1 and PP2.

    I was only hoping for a mild uptick in box-cars because, as we know, production from teenage d-men in the SHL is rare.

    This start should’t change my expectations but its a bit hard to stay grounded right now.

  45. Woogie63 says:

    The next wave of Condors will have to be placed carefully in the line-up for them to succeed. Benson, Marody and Bouchard all have high hockey IQ, but slower boots. They will need a veteran, with wheels that can take advantage of that hockey IQ.

    Benson with McDavid – I think 97 should be 2C next year, weaker competitors, 93-29-56 can excel against the toughs and McDavid’s line can gel over 20 games against 2nd and 3rd line competition at home.

    Marody – AA (&JP) – AA wants the puck and will transport. I see Marody’s first pass and a little later zone entry as a nice compliment. Once in the offensive zone Marody has a looked dangerous.

    Bouchard – Nurse has great wheels, will have his partners back on the ice. Nurses transport and Bouchard’s passing and shot seem to be a great compliment.

    If this is done it will be a very long time since 6 players graduated to the NHL in just 2 season.

  46. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
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    New Because Oilers:

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    This has been such a great series Darcy, great work as always.

    I really hope you do Koivu next, I can’t comment on your site for some reason, but tried.

    Love to see Koivu in E-Town, for a few reasons. FO’s, Leadership, Help/Mentorship for all the yungins, especially Yessa, cost and hopefully the ability to bring in Marcus’s brother on a cheap 1 year deal to be McDavid’s port side wingman and also as a Pool Party lifeguard.

    Thank you!

  47. €√¥£€^$ says:

    €√¥£€^$: This has been such a great series Darcy, great work as always.

    I really hope you do Koivu next, I can’t comment on your site for some reason, but tried.

    Love to see Koivu in E-Town, for a few reasons.FO’s, Leadership, Help/Mentorship for all the yungins, especially Yessa, cost and hopefully the ability to bring in Marcus’s brother on a cheap 1 year deal to be McDavid’s port side wingman and also as a Pool Party lifeguard.

    Thank you!

    And also as a place holder allow another year of incubation for one of Marody or McLeod to emerge in 21-22.

  48. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    LT, where are you getting TOI stats for today’s Skelleftea game?

    SHL site. Here are Broberg’s numbers

    https://www.shl.se/gamecenter/qY7-Afes11qvi5/statistics/12731

  49. Lowetide says:

    NEW for The Athletic: European leagues are open and Oilers prospects are everywhere

    https://theathletic.com/2074171/2020/09/19/lowetide-european-leagues-are-open-and-oilers-prospects-are-everywhere/

  50. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Woogie63,

    More like:

    Ference – Nikitin
    Fistric – Fayne
    Russell – Larsson

  51. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    Thanks.

    Your comment is posted. I had some serious Russian spam issues and changed the comments to 100% moderated so I get an email whenever anyone posts so I can choose “publish”

    Koivu is next.

  52. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Unless you’re Montreal who has so far paid St Louis for a 4.3mil backup and spent 3.5mil for 4 years on a bottom pairing Dman.

    Bergevin always seems intent to take the crown off of the GM jester PC’s head…

  53. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    €√¥£€^$,

    Thanks.

    Your comment is posted.I had some serious Russian spam issues and changed the comments to 100% moderated so I get an email whenever anyone posts so I can choose “publish”

    Koivu is next.

    FAKE NEWS!

  54. SwedishPoster says:

    Very strong start for Broberg as already has been mentioned, not just for the points but he had a good game overall. An interesting tidbit is that in a 5-4 OT win he was on for all five goals forward and non of the GAs. Skellefteå didn’t have a great game as a team but were saved by killing the special teams battle. Hmmm I’ve heard about that formula before…

    Filip Berglund lost with his new team Linköping, 4-6, no points, was -1 and lead his team in ice time by about three minutes. He played 24:57 which is a lot in the SHL. One of the reasons he moved to Linköping was to try and be a true #1D before giving the NHL a shot, seems like it’s going according to plan thus far.

    Raphael Lavoie didn’t play as also has been mentioned, no actual confirmation yet but from rumours it sounds like Rögle opted out because they felt he didn’t add enough to their lineup to play him over their own guys. There’s also talk of them signing Ryan Lasch a righty forward who’s been a PPG player for several SHL seasons and ofc much more of a safe bet to produce ofc.
    Imo Lavoie did what you could expect for a player coming in from the QMJHL in his pre-season games, as I’ve stated before it’s a massive difference between the two leagues both in style and quality, and I wasn’t expecting a lot from him the first few weeks as he was adapting. Seems like Rögle wasn’t prepared to give him that time nor were willing to take the risk he wouldn’t but I’ll see what I can dig up the next few days on the matter. Again, the SHL is a tough league for young players. Raphael Lavoie knows this now, hopefully it makes him work that much harder.

  55. Todd Macallan says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Thank you, as always.

  56. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Lowetide: FAKE NEWS!

    I hope not, I really want to see how Koivu stacks up.

    😁😁

  57. €√¥£€^$ says:

    SwedishPoster,

    I always look forward to your reports, your contributions are so appreciated!

    I wonder if there is any mutual interest via the Allsvenskan? Hopefully this is a positive experience for the young man and that it pushes him in all the right directions.

  58. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    NEW for The Athletic: European leagues are open and Oilers prospects are everywhere

    https://theathletic.com/2074171/2020/09/19/lowetide-european-leagues-are-open-and-oilers-prospects-are-everywhere/

    Thank you for the updates!

  59. jp says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Thank you also for the updates!

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    Berglund played just under 25 minutes today – the most on either team in his game – no points and -1 but clearly a top pairing guy for Linkoping.

  61. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****WARNING SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    “Edmonton Oilers 3rd line Center search #5 Tomas Nosek”

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    Enjoying these, thanks.

    Yeah Nosek, even if Holland only finds $1M to spend on 3C it’s hard to see Nosek being expected to fill the role. Sheahan or similar will be available for a fully bury-able number.

    Do you yourself prefer the options according to the final number you’ve given them?

  62. Munny says:

    SwedishPoster,

    This is awesome.

    Woodguy v2.0,

    This is awesome.

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Broberg finishes the night 2-0 on-ice, 1g 2a (2 on the PP) and 2 SOG as the #3 D in TOI with 21:37. Seems like he’s primed to fill the Berglund role this year.

    This is also pretty awesome.

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    This is awesomest. I would’ve drafted him right there, damn the laws.

  63. Munny says:

    SwedishPoster: He played 24:57 which is a lot in the SHL.

    Another very good arrow.

  64. Ryan says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Very strong start for Broberg as already has been mentioned, not just for the points but he had a good game overall. An interesting tidbit is that in a 5-4 OT win he was on for all five goals forward and non of the GAs. Skellefteå didn’t have a great game as a team but were saved by killing the special teams battle. Hmmm I’ve heard about that formula before…

    Filip Berglund lost with his new team Linköping, 4-6, no points, was -1 and lead his team in ice time by about three minutes. He played 24:57 which is a lot in the SHL. One of the reasons he moved to Linköping was to try and be a true #1D before giving the NHL a shot, seems like it’s going according to plan thus far.

    Raphael Lavoie didn’t play as also has been mentioned, no actual confirmation yet but from rumours it sounds like Rögle opted out because they felt he didn’t add enough to their lineup to play him over their own guys. There’s also talk of them signing Ryan Lasch a righty forward who’s been a PPG player for several SHL seasons and ofc much more of a safe bet to produce ofc.
    Imo Lavoie did what you could expect for a player coming in from the QMJHL in his pre-season games, as I’ve stated before it’s a massive difference between the two leagues both in style and quality, and I wasn’t expecting a lot from him the first few weeks as he was adapting. Seems like Rögle wasn’t prepared to give him that time nor were willing to take the risk he wouldn’t but I’ll see what I can dig up the next few days on the matter. Again, the SHL is a tough league for young players. Raphael Lavoie knows this now, hopefully it makes him work that much harder.

    You are awesome!

    Thanks for this.

  65. Munny says:

    Material Elvis: The math on Holloway is too much of a red flag

    If you’re going to use “Math” and Holloway” in the same sentence, I’m going to have to ask you to show your work, lol. I have yet to see any actual Math on Holoway or a player like Holloway.

  66. Munny says:

    It’s my parent’s anniversary today so I am actually having a beer for a change, since I blame everything in my life on their nuptials.

    Beer today is called Victory Ale, an English bitter out of British Columbia, because my parents are English, and I’m–well–bitter. 😉

    It’s actually not a bad approximation, certainly closer to a bitter than the 300,000 IPAs available these days. Made by V2V Black Hops Brewing, apparently they began making it in commemoration of the 100th Anniversary of Canadians winning World War I for the Allies (true story, I swear to Gord).

    Gonna follow it up with an Urpiner… and then call the parents, hehehehehhh…

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: FAKE NEWS!

    This is partially true.

    An unruly older jackass from St. Albert kept shit talking me in the comments and that contributed to me moving to 100% moderated.

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp: Enjoying these, thanks.

    Yeah Nosek, even if Holland only finds $1M to spend on 3C it’s hard to see Nosek being expected to fill the role. Sheahan or similar will be available for a fully bury-able number.

    Do you yourself prefer the options according to the final number you’ve given them?

    I fell in love with Johann Larsson

  69. Lowetide says:

    Munny: If you’re going to use “Math” and Holloway” in the same sentence, I’m going to have to ask you to show your work, lol.I have yet to see any actual Math on Holoway or a player like Holloway.

    Math on Holloway is in, and pretty clear. He has a good frame (6.01, 203) is a physical specimen and can skate very well. His hands are shy. If we estimate his even strength icetime at 14 minutes per game, that’s 1.71 even strength points per 60.

    A good number, but it isn’t better than Seth Jarvis and at No. 14 the Oilers will have access to a more talented offensive player.

    Oilers might take Holloway there, but the math is telling them what he is. One way around the lack of offense is to play him with McDavid or Draisaitl. Another way is to play him at No. 3 C and ask him to outscore opponents when he gets here.

    Math tells us a lot about Holloway.

  70. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I fell in love with Johann Larsson

    He looks the best value of the lads you’ve done so far.

  71. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This is partially true.

    An unruly older jackass from St. Albert kept shit talking me in the comments and that contributed tome moving to 100% moderated.

    Fucking Bruce.

  72. Munny says:

    Lowetide,

    What if we estimate his even strength TOI/gm at 12 minutes?

  73. Munny says:

    Lowetide: If we estimate his even strength icetime at 14 minutes per game, that’s 1.71 even strength points per 60.

    I’m sorry, but you really are going to have to show your work to make a convincing argument here. As I understand it, you are comparing EV pts/60 across Leagues and completely different peer groups, ie QUALCOMP? Is that correct? (honest question, I have no idea how you derived this comparison)

  74. Lowetide says:

    Munny:
    Lowetide,

    What if we estimate his even strength TOI/gm at 12 minutes?

    His scoring numbers have him sixth among forwards, unlikely he would be getting 12 minutes a night at even strength. Even as a freshman.

  75. godot10 says:

    Tampa doesn’t know what hit them. #PunIntended They will adjust. It is just a shock to the system coming from the “no hitting conference” .

    **Except for Tom Wilson.

  76. Reja says:

    Nurse and kass if your watching see it’s okay to play physical in men’s hockey.

  77. Lowetide says:

    Munny: I’m sorry, but you really are going to have to show your work to make a convincing argument here.As I understand it, you are comparing EV pts/60 across Leagues and completely different peer groups, ie QUALCOMP?Is that correct? (honest question, I have no idea how you derived this comparison)

    I’ll go you one better, and quote Rob Vollman. He has Big-10 at .333 NHLE and WHL at .302 NHLE, so, as you say, a superior league Holloway is playing in.

    Holloway’s NHLE is 13.3, Jarvis is 41.8 NHLE.

    Some like to include age, but Jarvis is five months younger.

  78. pts2pndr says:

    Material Elvis:
    Now would be on board with any of Jarvis, Askarov, Lundell, or Schneider. The math on Holloway is too much of a red flag and Guhle’s position is the organization’s greatest strength so those two are a pass for me.

    Lundel’s skating is more of a concern for me than Holloway’s offence as a freshman at Wisconsin. Freshmen don’t generally get a lot of ice time so without the ice time it’s hard to say. His previous AJHL MVP award plus straight ahead excellent skating, finishing checks etc says he will be a very good safe pick for some team. LT and others have alluded to the fact that there are a number of higher ranked players with just average skating. It will be, as always, very interesting to see who the Oilers pick. Guhle is a D pick that I wouldn’t touch until the third round or later due his lack of offensive IQ and his off the boards go to for getting the puck out of his end of the ice,

  79. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: I’ll go you one better, and quote Rob Vollman. He has Big-10 at .333 NHLE and WHL at .302 NHLE, so, as you say, a superior league Holloway is playing in.

    Holloway’s NHLE is 13.3, Jarvis is 41.8 NHLE.

    Some like to include age, but Jarvis is five months younger.

    There is the adjustment period from playing with boys to men not to mention acclamation to the university life etc. To take into consideration.

  80. Lowetide says:

    pts2pndr: There is the adjustment period from playing with boys to men not to mention acclamationto the university life etc. To take into consideration.

    Had zero impact on Cole Caufield, who also played for Wisconsin.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bettman: Attendance effects (directly and indirectly) over 50% of league revenues……

    I can’t see 2020/21 starting without some semblance of fans in the stands and how may, or what percentage, that is, is not known.

    Once the SCF is done and then the draft and early free agency is I imagine the focus and info (well, speculation mostly) on 2020/21 will be in full force.

    I can’t imagine the amount of work it is going to be to figure out next season.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oh, and Shana Tova everbody!

  83. Munny says:

    Lowetide: I’ll go you one better, and quote Rob Vollman. He has Big-10 at .333 NHLE and WHL at .302 NHLE, so, as you say, a superior league Holloway is playing in.

    Holloway’s NHLE is 13.3, Jarvis is 41.8 NHLE.

    Some like to include age, but Jarvis is five months younger.

    Vollman found draft age freshmen who made the leap to the NHL at 19?

  84. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Fucking Bruce.

    I thought you had rules to keep people like him out?

  85. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: I’ll go you one better, and quote Rob Vollman. He has Big-10 at .333 NHLE and WHL at .302 NHLE, so, as you say, a superior league Holloway is playing in.

    Holloway’s NHLE is 13.3, Jarvis is 41.8 NHLE.

    Some like to include age, but Jarvis is five months younger.

    You sir, are on fire today.

    I’m on team Jarvis too.

    Well done.

  86. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I thought you had rules to keep people like him out?

    I like old people.

  87. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Thanks to Swedish and Woodguy for the great insights!

  88. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Oh, and Shana Tova everbody!

    Likewise!

  89. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Even slow hobbled Sekera is a beauty

  90. PokeCheck says:

    Woodguy, would you be able to generate a score for Sheahan in that final table? I wouldn’t want you to go to the effort of a full write-up, but a score at the end would help set a baseline for the rest of the field. Thanks for doing this series.

  91. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Hedman is ridiculous

  92. Munny says:

    I want to make it clear that I am not on Team Holloway.

    But I find comments like “the Math doesn’t like him” to be largely superficial and useless. What Math? He’s in very unique circumstances. Show me honest Math that doesn’t like him and I will show the scouts the finger along with the rest of you.

    Scouts love him, and if we value their judgement, then we should be looking for serious, concrete ways to disqualify their views, rather than glib shorthand lacking in real nuts and bolts.

  93. Munny says:

    PokeCheck,

    Not a bad idea.

  94. Munny says:

    Dally looks far more confident today then they did during the season. Great playoffs for that group.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63:
    The next wave of Condors will have to be placed carefully in the line-up for them to succeed.Benson, Marody and Bouchard all have high hockey IQ, but slower boots.They will need a veteran, with wheels that can take advantage of that hockey IQ.

    Benson with McDavid – I think 97 should be 2C next year, weaker competitors, 93-29-56 can excel against the toughs and McDavid’s line can gel over 20 games against 2nd and 3rd line competition at home.

    Marody – AA (&JP) – AA wants the puck and will transport.I see Marody’s first pass and a little later zone entry as a nice compliment.Once in the offensive zone Marody has a looked dangerous.

    Bouchard – Nurse has great wheels, will have his partners back on the ice.Nurses transport and Bouchard’s passing and shot seem to be a great compliment.

    If this is done it will be a very long time since 6 players graduated to the NHL in just 2 season.

    I don’t agree that Bouchard has slow boots – I’ve watched plenty of Condors and his skating speed is just fine, maybe even an plus – lateral mobility/edges, not high end but I don’t think his boots are slow.

    I agree that Benson could be a fit with McDavid – have detailed my reason why as it relates to his skil-set and what may work with McDavid. I would think, if he’s looking ready and good during camp that he will have an opportunity given, aside from Nuge, there is no current player in the org that is a lock for top 6 LW.

    It would be fantastic if Marody could make the team as 3C on merit but I do think its a big stretch (bigger than Benson as a top 6LW with talent) at this point. If we see the 2018/19 Marody with those skills translating to the NHL then, ya, maybe there is a chance but at this point, I put the chances of Haas contributing in that spot higher than Coopers’.

    I do agree that, if he’s brought back (and I hope AA agrees to sign for a more reasonable cap hit given circumstances) that AA should start pencilled in as the offensive driver of the 3rd line – adding skill and speed and doing what he does best, transporting the puck and getting it in the right zone.

    With respect to Bouch with Bear – sure that pairing may work and maybe we see it in the future but, at this point, I don’t think Bouchard can be pencilled in for 18 plus 5 on 5 minutes per game against tough comp. I would think he should get the benefit of some sheltering.

  96. Munny says:

    Lol, he shoulda scored on the first one. Good followup though.

  97. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: I like old people.

    Okay. either you’ve gotten into DSF’s Shelter Point or he’s hacked your site. 🙂

    I’m cheering for Tampa, so unfortunately that means Dallas will win.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Berglund played just under 25 minutes today – the most on either team in his game – no points and -1 but clearly a top pairing guy for Linkoping.

    Ooop, sorry, I see SP posted about Berglund’s TOI a bit earlier – sorry.

  99. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Had zero impact on Cole Caufield, who also played for Wisconsin.

    Caufield is a draft year older, an American going to an American school, and going with people he already knows, and he cooled off after the league figured out how to play him.

  100. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Every team that wins multiple Cups and is a perennial contender shares top notch goalies as a base.

    Our Oilers are no exception.

    Many of the top goalers year in and out were first round picks.

    Most other goalers don’t have long term stability in numbers the same as most players who aren’t elite.

    For me this makes the Russian goalie the pick if he’s as good as they say.

    No other player they might take would make as big an impact on the team’s future.

  101. Lowetide says:

    Munny:
    I want to make it clear that I am not on Team Holloway.

    But I find comments like “the Math doesn’t like him” to be largely superficial and useless.What Math?He’s in very unique circumstances.Show me honest Math that doesn’t like him and I will show the scouts the finger along with the rest of you.

    Scouts love him, and if we value their judgement, then we should be looking for serious, concrete ways to disqualify their views, rather than glib shorthand lacking in real nuts and bolts.

    Holloway is No. 25 on my final list, Jarvis is No. 15 on my final list. You can reject what I do, and that’s fine. But it isn’t like I’ve been sneaking up on you, I’ve been doing this for years.

    https://lowetide.ca/2020/06/01/here-comes-the-sun-2020/

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Enjoying these, thanks.

    Yeah Nosek, even if Holland only finds $1M to spend on 3C it’s hard to see Nosek being expected to fill the role. Sheahan or similar will be available for a fully bury-able number.

    Do you yourself prefer the options according to the final number you’ve given them?

    I can’t get on board with Nosek playing higher that 4C at 5 on 5.

    He’d be a great 4C but that would be Haas’ job coming in to camp – well, actually, Haas may be the 3C.

    I’ve got a feeling about Haas and being able to handle 3C comp and add some quickness, a bit of skill, higher defensive acumen and penalty drawing ability to that position).

    I’m probably dreaming/fantasizing though that he could handle the 3C role – especially without injury.

  103. Lowetide says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Every team that wins multiple Cups and is a perennial contender shares top notch goalies as a base.

    Our Oilers are no exception.

    Many of the top goalers year in and out were first round picks.

    Most other goalers don’t have long term stability in numbers the same as most players who aren’t elite.

    For me this makes the Russian goalie the pick if he’s as good as they say.

    No other player they might take would make as big an impact on the team’s future.

    He has been performing well of late, I don’t think he’ll be there.

  104. jp says:

    Munny:
    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    This is awesomest. I would’ve drafted him right there, damn the laws.

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Thanks for mentioning and reminding me to actually check out the pic. Very excellent!

  105. pts2pndr says:

    Reja:
    Nurse and kass if your watching see it’s okay to play physical in men’s hockey.

    Were you watching game one of the play in when two iffy calls one against Nurse and another against Kassian impacted the game negatively for the Oilers. It is my belief that lack of physical play had more to do with the coaching philosophy than the players actions. It’s always easiest to blame the players.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Digging in to a player on the ice tonight and found this very interesting…….

    Player trades [notes]

    2017-Dec-19 Traded from Dallas Stars to Pittsburgh Penguins for conditional round 4 pick in the 2019 draft (Eric Hjorth)

    2019-Jan-28 Traded from Pittsburgh Penguins to Dallas Stars for round 4 pick in the 2019 draft (Eric Hjorth)

  107. Munny says:

    I hate the Stars from back in the day but man they have me believing. I blame the coach.

  108. Lowetide says:

    Munny:
    I hate the Stars from back in the day but man they have me believing.I blame the coach.

    Yes. Ordinarily, I’d say something like a quick goal by Tampa Bay early in the third changes things drastically but the truth is Dallas is physical, quick and disciplined. Tough to beat that, especially if they put in 60 minutes.

  109. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t agree that Bouchard has slow boots – I’ve watched plenty of Condors and his skating speed is just fine, maybe even an plus – lateral mobility/edges, not high end but I don’t think his boots are slow.

    I agree that Benson could be a fit with McDavid – have detailed my reason why as it relates to his skil-set and what may work with McDavid.I would think, if he’s looking ready and good during camp that he will have an opportunity given, aside from Nuge, there is no current player in the org that is a lock for top 6 LW.

    It would be fantastic if Marody could make the team as 3C on merit but I do think its a big stretch (bigger than Benson as a top 6LW with talent) at this point.If we see the 2018/19 Marody with those skills translating to the NHL then, ya, maybe there is a chance but at this point, I put the chances of Haas contributing in that spot higher than Coopers’.

    I do agree that, if he’s brought back (and I hope AA agrees to sign for a more reasonable cap hit given circumstances) that AA should start pencilled in as the offensive driver of the 3rd line – adding skill and speed and doing what he does best, transporting the puck and getting it in the right zone.

    With respect to Bouch with Bear – sure that pairing may work and maybe we see it in the future but, at this point, I don’t think Bouchard can be pencilled in for 18 plus 5 on 5 minutes per game against tough comp.I would think he should get the benefit of some sheltering.

    But wasn’t Nuge a lot better with Drai?

    I’ve been pondering the changes Holland could make a lot because I want him to be a good enough GM to move the dial.

    Waiting for draft picks is fine and developing them, but we have two star centres hitting prime. We have seen Bruce’s analysis that shows the contenders pushing the dial hard.

    Patience is important but risk taking and doing good player assessments is what sorts the good from the perpetually weak IMO.

    Our own history says so.

    So Nuge. Benson isn’t likely what Connor needs. The Oilers desperately lack shooters.

    As I type this Kiberanta and his aggressive quick release scores again.

    Benson is basically Nuge at this point. Nuge is too good to play 3C. They share a lack of top speed and first step, they share great edges and elite passing and playmaking. Benson is said to be good defensively and on the boards.

    So now I’m wondering what Holland may be thinking?

    Drai drives his line, Yama is there, maybe Benson can take that role and be a decent complement far cheaper

    I’m not trying to inflame just sharing thoughts.

    As GM I would consider moving a top 4 left D and Nuge to get good players we need because you have to give good.

    I would also aggressively try to move Neal and Russell. And get a better backup G.

  110. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide: He has been performing well of late, I don’t think he’ll be there.

    Of course you have to be convinced or you don’t go there.

    I’ve read high comparisons but that doesn’t mean much.

  111. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide: Yes. Ordinarily, I’d say something like a quick goal by Tampa Bay early in the third changes things drastically but the truth is Dallas is physical, quick and disciplined. Tough to beat that, especially if they put in 60 minutes.

    Part of my desire for a shakeup is that the current group can’t find the discipline to play the way needed.

    For me a part of it is that the group as many people and analysis has said they are just too slow.

    Some players have the brains to overcome NHL immobility like Pavelski but like elite players I think they are the exception.

  112. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy you contribute a lot to Edmonton hockey conversation, thanks. Would it be possible to give a score to the current internal 3C candidates?

    Haas, Marody, Nuge and maybe Khaira

  113. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny:
    I hate the Stars from back in the day but man they have me believing.I blame the coach.

    The Bolts best forwards are hurt. If they were healthy enough it would look different.

    This is the issue with certain guys.

    Like stamkos. For us how many times has klef and his injuries torpedoed things? Or Larsson?

    The question for Holland is do they have a good chance at the Cup next season as things stand?

    If not do what is necessary to change that. If possible.

  114. jp says:

    Munny:
    I want to make it clear that I am not on Team Holloway.

    But I find comments like “the Math doesn’t like him” to be largely superficial and useless.What Math?He’s in very unique circumstances.Show me honest Math that doesn’t like him and I will show the scouts the finger along with the rest of you.

    Scouts love him, and if we value their judgement, then we should be looking for serious, concrete ways to disqualify their views, rather than glib shorthand lacking in real nuts and bolts.

    Did you see my post the other day on him?

    I made an attempt but the pool of comparables is small so maybe it doesn’t meet the standards you’re looking for. I’m personally convinced the math doesn’t like him though. I can find and re-post if you didn’t see it. If you’ve seen and discounted it for whatever reason that’s fine too.

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: I like old people.

    Lucky Bruce.

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PokeCheck:
    Woodguy, would you be able to generate a score for Sheahan in that final table? I wouldn’t want you to go to the effort of a full write-up, but a score at the end would help set a baseline for the rest of the field. Thanks for doing this series.

    That’s a good idea.

    I want to do Koivu and Turris first, but hopefully will get there.

  117. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can’t get on board with Nosek playing higher that 4C at 5 on 5.

    He’d be a great 4C but that would be Haas’ job coming in to camp – well, actually, Haas may be the 3C.

    I’ve got a feeling about Haas and being able to handle 3C comp and add some quickness, a bit of skill, higher defensive acumen and penalty drawing ability to that position).

    I’m probably dreaming/fantasizing though that he could handle the 3C role – especially without injury.

    Agree on Nosek.

    On Haas, I don’t have strong feelings either way. Absolute worst case (in terms of my off season hopes) is Holland does like last summer and adds (at least) 1 bury-able option as competition for Haas/Khaira.

    In that scenario then Haas may well rise to the “top”. And yeah it’s possible he could cover 3C and do better than Sheahan this past year.

    I wouldn’t bet against him in that scenario. But I really think Holland will find a way to add someone more established. 3C was literally the biggest black hole on the team last season. Haas will have competition. Definitely a useful guy to have around though, whatever role he ends up filling.

  118. Reja says:

    pts2pndr: Were you watching game one of the play in when two iffy calls one against Nurse and another against Kassian impacted the game negatively for the Oilers. It is my belief that lack of physical play had more to do with the coaching philosophy than the players actions. It’s always easiest to blame the players.

    Oilers were playing scared chickenshit hockey they could of set the tone early with the refs that they will continue to body check the whole series. We had one of the best PK’s in the league and it’s not rocket science that if your physical with Chicago they fold the tent. All it would of took is one bone crushing hit on Toews by Kass or Nurse and the series was over.

  119. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: Had zero impact on Cole Caufield, who also played for Wisconsin.

    I am not questioning the math as much as trying to understand what a number of scouts are seeing that we seem to be missing. I know there was a definite adjustment period for my kid , different sport, from Canada to U.S. university.

  120. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I fell in love with Johann Larsson

    I can definitely understand that. It’s impressive what he’s done in the minutes he’s been given. Also one of the few longer term options available.

    I wonder how cheap he’ll be though, some of the teams, at least, must have noticed, right?

    (As an aside, I’ve kind of fallen in love with Grabner. Plays super tough minutes, kills penalties, speed to burn, can still score goals. If he could be had for Russell or even with 50% retained I think he’d be a great add as a 1LW/3LW swingman option).

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    Shots are 15-1 for Tampa in the third and Khudobin has stopped that all including multiple 5-bell saves.

    Shots are 20-2 since the Oleksiak goal.

  122. Munny says:

    Lowetide: Holloway is No. 25 on my final list, Jarvis is No. 15 on my final list. You can reject what I do, and that’s fine. But it isn’t like I’ve been sneaking up on you, I’ve been doing this for years.

    https://lowetide.ca/2020/06/01/here-comes-the-sun-2020/

    I’m not disputing your ranking. I might even rank him in the same spot.

    The point is I have no idea where to rank him and I’m not sure how anyone else does. And it bothers me that I can’t spot him with any confidence.

    What if we trade down and he’s still on the board? Or trade someone for a pick? Is he value at 18, 20, 22… 30? I have no freaking clue. And that’s because there’s a data vacuum on a player of this ilk. There are so few comps.

    So I think framing this as “Math” is incorrect. The Math is suspicious, assuming our assuming is correct, which is also suspicious. Some boots on the ground would be handy to inform our assumptions… it wouldn’t complete the picture but it would help.

    As you know, I’m the guy that first pooh-poohed how much trust and emphasis we gave Quality of Competition back in the day, and then Zone Starts too. I’m sorry I can be a contrarian dickhead and have been on many occasions, but my doubts proved correct in both cases. I’m not a Math grad or anything but I have taken five University Math courses including stats. I wouldn’t call myself an expert, not even close, but I’m not an idiot in the field either.

    I think the range on drafting Holloway accurately might be as wide as 20 spots. Can make a GM awfully right or awfully wrong. It’s added risk which is why I am not Team Holloway. I said months ago that whatever the Oilers do with this pick, it cannot be a misfire. A top half of the roster player must emerge from its use.

    But considering the pick may change or be added to, be real handy to be able to rank Holloway with some confidence. Be handy to know if he’s value at 14 because its part of the range of his outcomes, albeit an outlier.

    I wonder if Gabe’s work on 17 yos scoring at 21, which I think was his first crack at NHLe, is still up. Might be more data on AJHLers at 17 than NCAAers. at 18.

  123. Lowetide says:

    pts2pndr: I am not questioning the math as much as trying to understand what a number of scouts are seeing that we seem to be missing. I know there was a definite adjustment period for my kid , different sport, from Canada to U.S. university.

    I think the scouts see Holloway for what he is and still consider him one of the 15 best players in the draft. He has size, speed and can play center. That’s a lot. Whatever his offense, playing alongside on of 97 or 29 makes up for a lot, or perhaps he plays No. 3 center.

    Lots of great lists have him top 15. Holloway is a good player. I’m discussing offense but it’s clear what he brings.

  124. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Shots are 15-1 for Tampa in the third and Khudobin has stopped that all including multiple 5-bell saves.

    Shots are 20-2 since the Oleksiak goal.

    Great game by Khudobin. Guy might get paid.

  125. €√¥£€^$ says:

    I don’t expect it to happen, but that OEL for Nurse rumour + the Neal for Fleury suggestion, combined with Koivu + Granlund has really captured my imagination. I doubt we see any of these players in Edmonton, but IMO this group provides the missing leadership mojo this team is apparently missing and I think it stacks up well vs the current SC Finalists.

    The other things to consider is a reduction in Fleury’s workload will possibly result in improved performance, the positive influence on Jesse that MG and MK would have, Connor having capable 2-way wingers, a healthy OEL in a new environment and of course MOAR Finn’s 🤔🤔

    Here is the forward group, so along with Patrick Russell, I added Allan Quine. The reason for Quine is always hearing about him as being a superior option on the 4th line in Calgary while driving to and from work.

    This opinion came from at least 3 different radio guys, including their play-by-play guy. My understanding is he is fast, hard on the forecheck and a good PKer. I think he might be a hidden gem.

    Here is the forward group:

    Granlund ($2.5 mill x 1 yr) – McD – Brown ($3.2 x 2 yrs)
    Nuge-Dra-Yamo
    Grabner (1 yr) – Koivu ($1.5 mill x 1 yr) – JP
    Nygard – Haas – Melker Karlsson ($800K x 1)

    I also added Mark Pysyk for the 3rd pair with Jones.

    For those interested in how I get there, here is the link:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/367463?post_id=1775117

  126. Klima's_Bucket says:

    €√¥£€^$: I also added Mark Pysyk for the 3rd pair with Jones.

    You do know that Mark Pysyk spent the past season playing right wing in FLA?

  127. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks LT. That makes sense.

  128. jp says:

    Munny:
    I want to make it clear that I am not on Team Holloway.

    But I find comments like “the Math doesn’t like him” to be largely superficial and useless.What Math?He’s in very unique circumstances. Show me honest Math that doesn’t like him and I will show the scouts the finger along with the rest of you.

    Scouts love him, and if we value their judgement, then we should be looking for serious, concrete ways to disqualify their views, rather than glib shorthand lacking in real nuts and bolts.

    I still haven’t caught up with the whole thread but figured this is likely still relevant: my best attempt at the “math on Holloway” (more generally the math on draft eligible freshmen in the NCAA.

    ———————————————————-

    NCAA players were being drafted at 19 up until 2003, I believe. So starting in 2004 I looked at all the NCAA forwards (1st time draft eligible) picked in the 1st and 2nd rounds. There were 20 of them in 16 years (that’s why I included 2nd round as well).

    Like Holloway, all of these guys are old for their draft year (birthdays between Sept and Dec).

    So Holloway scored 35-8-9-17 0.49 points per game.

    Below are all the 20 players (forwards, 1st or 2nd round, from the NCAA, since 2003).
    Listing in order:
    Name
    Year drafted
    Draft #
    NCAA Points/game
    Points/game of best NHL season (more than 40 GP)
    NHL career games
    NHL career points/game

    **Players are sorted by NCAA points/game in their draft year**:

    Player ——- Year Pos NCAA Best GP Total
    Eichel ——– 2015 #2 1.78 1.15 354 0.95
    Kessel ——- 2006 #5 1.31 1.12 1066 0.81
    Schroeder — 2009 #22 1.29 XX 165 0.25
    Fritsche —– 2005 #47 1.07 zero NHL games
    Wilson —— 2008 #7 0.95 0.55 632 0.45
    Kunin ——- 2016 #15 0.94 0.49 131 0.40
    Toews ——- 2006 #3 0.93 1.02 943 0.86
    Thompson – 2016 #26 0.89 0.22 107 0.20
    Stafford —– 2004 #13 0.89 0.84 841 0.51
    Sweatt —— 2014 #38 0.87 XXX 3 0.00
    Tkachuk —- 2018 #4 0.78 0.63 142 0.63
    DiGiuseppe 2012 #38 0.65 0.41 170 0.26
    Nieto ——– 2011 #47 0.59 0.38 472 0.32
    Pitlick ——- 2010 #31 0.50 0.34 248 0.29

    Holloway — 2019 ?? 0.49 ??

    Sheahan — 2010 #21 0.46 0.57 513 0.32
    Bertram —- 2005 #54 0.45 zero NHL games
    Poehling — 2017 #25 0.37 XXX 28 0.18
    O’Brien —– 2007 #29 0.35 XXX 77 0.17
    Pineault —- 2004 #46 0.28 XXX 3 0.00
    Greer ——- 2015 #39 0.19 XXX 39 0.16

    So we can’t project Holloway’s NHLE from this. But we can say some other things.

    14 of the 20 1st time eligible NCAA players drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds scored more than Holloway.

    No player who scored less than Holloway was picked before #21 (in fact no player who scored less than 0.75 points/game was picked in the top 20).

    Holloway’s closest comparables are Pitlick and Sheahan. Both have scored about 0.3 points/game for their careers (that’s 25 points per 82 games). They did have NHL careers though, which isn’t a given where they were picked).

    Sheahan is the only player who scored less than Holloway who has played 100 NHL games (though there are only 6 total).

    Sheahan is the only player who scored less than 0.75 NCAA points/game who had even one 0.5 points/game NHL season (roughly the 2nd line scoring cutoff). That is, none of the 9 NCAA players who scored less than 0.75 point/game were ever top 6 forwards, even briefly.

    6 of the 11 forwards who scored more than 0.75 points/game in the NCAA ultimately had 0.5 points/game NHL seasons. And 5 of the 11 are career 0.5 points/game NHL players. (Luke Kunin looks like he’ll add to both groups).

    ———————————————————-

    The above math is far from perfect (sample size) but IMO it’s enough to say “the math doesn’t like Holloway”. LT fading him from concensus ~#15 to #25 seems to me a fair incorporation of the scouting reports and the (admittedly thin) math.

    (also, maybe teams shouldn’t be unhappy with Ethan Moreau or Lawson Crouse as the return on a pick in the early teens)

  129. jtblack says:

    Lowetide: Yes. Ordinarily, I’d say something like a quick goal by Tampa Bay early in the third changes things drastically but the truth is Dallas is physical, quick and disciplined. Tough to beat that, especially if they put in 60 minutes.

    NHL is in a hurry to get out of bubble land. TB won their last series in 6 gms and IMO deserved a couple days. They got 40 hrs. There is also a B2B FRI / SAT. So minor advantage Dallas.

    I do think TB will get better as series goes but it may be too late. TB could use Stamkos. He may be rusty but he represents fresh legs

  130. hunter1909 says:

    jtblack: I do think TB will get better as series goes but it may be too late. TB could use Stamkos. He may be rusty but he represents fresh legs

    Eastern teams play play a softer version of the game. Boston plays the tough team out there but has zilch ability to intimidate anyone other than the 2011 Canucks because the West is so much tougher.

    Oilers play like champions out east, and have for years.

    Dallas should split the first 2 games and then grind the Bolts down. That is, unless the Bolts simply turn up and win with 8-3 or 7-1 type scores.

  131. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Lowetide: Had zero impact on Cole Caufield, who also played for Wisconsin.

    pts2pndr: Lundel’s skating is more of a concern for me thanHolloway’s offence as a freshman at Wisconsin. Freshmen don’t generally get a lot of ice time so without the ice time it’s hard to say. His previous AJHL MVP award plus straight ahead excellent skating, finishing checks etc says he will be a very good safe pick for some team. LT and others have alluded to the fact that there are a number of higher ranked players with just average skating. It will be, as always, very interesting to see who the Oilers pick. Guhle is a D pick that I wouldn’t touch until the third round or later due his lack of offensive IQ and his off the boards go to for getting the puck out of his end of the ice,

    I

    Lowetide: Had zero impact on Cole Caufield, who also played for Wisconsin.

    Cole Caufield, an American, from Wisconsin, played 119 games with the USNDP across 3 seasons, on a Chicago rep Team in the Brick Tournament as a 9 or 10 yr old, on several State teams as a 13-15 yr old, several National teams starting at 16 yrs old. With the USNDP he also played many games vs NCAA competition.

    Holloway, from Bragg Creek has played on several versions of National teams, but certainly not as experienced at minimum in living in Wisconsin as Caufield. He played parts of 3 years in the AJHL at Okotoks, 2 games, 28 games and 59 games while mostly sleeping in his own bed. As much as he was familiar with the language, he still had tons of adjustments to make. FYI, Bragg Creek, his hometown, has a population of less than 400.

    Based on his results in his last 10 games, which I had posted here in some detail 2 months ago, he was playing very well, scoring well and probably getting more TOI. The team was playing again Top 10 NCAA teams, so the competition were no pushovers.

    I understand the numbers, but they do not take into account real-time development. I like Seth Jarvis a lot, but I like Dylan Holloway a little bit more.

  132. Munny says:

    jp,

    This is wonderful work. Exactly what was needed. Apologies to all if it has been posted before and I’ve missed it. I haven’t had much chance to follow the comments these past couple of days.

    Looking at that list, I’d say I’d give him the head over Pitlick (they’re basically tied), because I think there’s a reasonable argument Holloway’s circumstances have been a bit tougher. Splits may be a question too but I think your dataset significantly narrows and limits the outcomes on Holloway. I can see him being 30-35 on many rankings.

    I think PPG is the way to go. I know, shit can still be skewed up, but at least it is a for-sure number.

    Slim pickings, this type of prospect. Reminds me of Swedish draft-eligible defensemen playing in the SHL, but worse. But thank you regardless, JP. Some context is way better than no context.

  133. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Yes, but was also playing behind Ekblad, Stralman, Wegar and giant Joshua “Tree” Brown. He used to a decent 3rd pair D. Coach must have liked someone else more. Did he get bad all of a sudden?

    He played several games as a RW and 0 in the AHL, so that is something. He has played more than 400 NHL games, hasn’t seen the minors in 5 years, would be cheap, he knows the city and could even be brought in on a PTO. If he is terrible, he has Bouchard and Berglund nipping at his heels.

    Not a big deal.

  134. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: Had zero impact on Cole Caufield, who also played for Wisconsin.

    Well he did have Turcotte as a linemate to easy the transition

  135. BONE207 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    *****WARNING SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    “Edmonton Oilers 3rd line Center search #5 Tomas Nosek”

    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2020/09/edmonton-oilers-3rd-line-center-search_19.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Mr. Wood…
    I’m wondering if it’s been asked: These 3C rankings of yours, will they include Riley Sheahan himself? That way we could see how a low end Nosek & a high end Larrson compare. Thanks for your efforts.

  136. BONE207 says:

    PS…everyone…you are awesome…🤣

  137. Munny says:

    leadfarmer: Well he did have Turcotte as a linemate to easy the transition

    You haven’t caught a Badgers game by any chance have you?

  138. €√¥£€^$ says:

    leadfarmer: Well he did have Turcotte as a linemate to easy the transition

    As I had posted, there were 10 players, many freshmen or sophomores with USNDP experience on the Team. Holloway was 1 of only 2 Canadians, the other a senior from Manitoba had played 3 seasons in the USHL. All but 3 players, Holloway, a 25 yr old Swedish goalie who played 5 games over 4 seasons and a 21 yr old D freshman from the NAHL who played 2 games.

    Holloway didn’t know a soul going in there.

  139. €√¥£€^$ says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    *Posted 2 months ago

  140. Reja says:

    hunter1909: Eastern teams play play a softer version of the game. Boston plays the tough team out there but has zilch ability to intimidate anyone other than the 2011 Canucks because the West is so much tougher.

    Oilers play like champions out east, and have for years.

    Dallas should split the first 2 games and then grind the Bolts down. That is, unless the Bolts simply turn up and win with 8-3 or 7-1 type scores.

    Washington, St. Loo and soon to be Dallas. Holland better find a couple of players with not only skill but a edge to their game.

  141. leadfarmer says:

    Munny: You haven’t caught a Badgers game by any chance have you?

    I used to watch a lot of gopher games years ago but don’t pay much attention to NCAA hockey.
    Catch an odd game here and there but haven’t watched much since leaving Minneapolis

    As much as I hate Benn and Perry I would love to see Pavelski win. He’s from Plover which is 30 min away and I love hearing stories about him. Lots of such a great person, but such a bad skater

  142. Munny says:

    leadfarmer,

    Little Joe is in the top echelon of character guys in the NHL, no doubt about it. I will be happy for him and Sekera and Khudobin and Cogs…

    But I think we probably should have someone standing by with a Taser for when Gerta sees the Covid Cup raised above Corey Perry’s head. Y’know, for the safety of everyone, lol.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    I hope Pavelski can find a way to gain an extra step or he may find himself playing in Europe.

  144. leadfarmer says:

    From what I hear from people Holloway’s athletic skills are incredibly high he’s just a bit raw and was on an absolute awful badgers team. Pretty big jump in quality of competition from one year to the next

  145. €√¥£€^$ says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    *Sorry the last sentence meant to say only 3 players on the Team had Zero USHL experience. The 2 players aside from Holloway played a combined total of 3 games last season for Wisconsin.

    Also of note, which is extremely important, Holloway didn’t get much PP time, but got more later in the year.
    16/27 players were Freshmen or Sophomores, and Holloway was the youngest player on the team.

    The Sophomore goalie played in 27/36 games; the 2 other goalies were Seniors, but all of their numbers were poor.

    Another very important note, his dorm room was a shoe box in middle of a busy street and he worked 29 hours a day with only rocks for food….if he was lucky.

  146. leadfarmer says:

    Munny:
    leadfarmer,

    Little Joe is in the top echelon of character guys in the NHL, no doubt about it.I will be happy for him and Sekera and Khudobin and Cogs…

    But I think we probably should have someone standing by with a Taser for when Gerta sees the Covid Cup raised above Corey Perry’s head.Y’know, for the safety of everyone, lol.

    I’m pretty sure the world is going to see Corey Perry slash the Stanley cup multiple times before cross checking it from behind into the boards

  147. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I hope Pavelski can find a way to gain an extra step or he may find himself playing in Europe.

    He had to work incredibly hard to gain many steps to where he is now

  148. leadfarmer says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    €√¥£€^$,

    *Sorry the last sentence meant to say only 3 players on the Team had Zero USHL experience.The 2 players aside from Holloway played a combined total of 3 games last season for Wisconsin.

    Also of note, which is extremely important, Holloway didn’t get much PP time, but got more later in the year.
    16/27 players were Freshmen or Sophomores, and Holloway was the youngest player on the team.

    The Sophomore goalie played in 27/36 games; the 2 other goalies were Seniors, but all of their numbers were poor.

    Another very important note, his dorm room was a shoe box in middle of a busy street and he worked 29 hours a day with only rocks for food….if he was lucky.

    Holloway would be a great pick for a team with multiple first round picks that they can afford to swing for the fences
    He’s a lot like Broberg when he was drafted
    Tremendous athlete that hasn’t put it together quite yet
    I’m guessing the Oil have him higher on their board then LT given his athletic ability

  149. jp says:

    Reja: Oilers were playing scared chickenshit hockey they could of set the tone early with the refs that they will continue to body check the whole series. We had one of the best PK’s in the league and it’s not rocket science that if your physical with Chicago they fold the tent. All it would of took is one bone crushing hit on Toews by Kass or Nurse and the series was over.

    I don’t disagree the Oilers should have brought more of a physical game to the Blackhawks.

    But in his whole 13 year career has anyone ever neutralized Toews with a body check?

  150. jp says:

    Munny: Great game by Khudobin.Guy might get paid.

    And maybe that’s a good thing (for the Oilers).

    The guy is 34 and was rumoured to be looking for $3M X 3 before he backstopped a team to the finals. He’s legit, but the likelihood of getting paid more than he’s worth on his next deal has likely gone up exponentially.

  151. Munny says:

    leadfarmer: and was on an absolute awful badgers team.

    This is the tougher circumstances I refer to above in ranking Holloway over Pitlick. Well some of what Evilas is saying about adjustment too but more this. That was the youngest team in the conference and he was the youngest of the youngest.

    And that’s a double whammy because not only are your teammates generally younger and less experienced, it means all quality of competition is better than you too. If that’s not taken into account, I’d probably rank him in the 2nd round based on production.

    I may be under-valuing Evilas’s contention that the adjustment was severe. He may be right because playing in Okotoks means he never left home. He might possibly have a sheltered background, Bragg’s a different place. And every kid’s different too. That said, I’d say if you’re the kind of person who is likely to have success on the big stage, you’d get over something like that pretty quick. You’d be excited, curious, confident by default, not searching for it.

  152. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Munny: This is the tougher circumstances I refer to above in ranking Holloway over Pitlick.Well some of what Evilas is saying about adjustment too but more this.That was the youngest team in the conference and he was the youngest of the youngest.

    And that’s a double whammy because not only are your teammates generally younger and less experienced, it means all quality of competition is better than you too. If that’s not taken into account, I’d probably rank him in the 2nd round based on production.

    I may be under-valuing Evilas’s contention that the adjustment was severe.He may be right because playing in Okotoks means he never left home.He might possibly have a sheltered background,Bragg’s a different place. And every kid’s different too.That said, I’d say if you’re the kind of person who is likely to have success on the big stage, you’d get over something like that pretty quick.You’d be excited, curious, confident by default, not searching for it.

    My other point though is familiarity. I am pretty sure the coaching staff knew everyone else better than Holloway and vice versa, so despite everything he was also likely eased in and got better opportunities as the season progressed to ensure greater success. Experience d college coaches know how to do this and with Caufield and Zegras on the 1st line, Holloway was likely given lesser skilled, but more experienced teammates so maybe played more of a checking due to his physical skills and reported 2-way acumen.

    If the season resumes I predict he will be on the first line with Zegras and Caufield.

  153. BONE207 says:

    leadfarmer: I’m pretty sure the world is going to see Corey Perry slash the Stanley cup multiple timesbefore cross checking it from behind into the boards

    I hope the caretaker guy has put the cup down & left before this happens…🤪

  154. Munny says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    Turcotte. Zegras went to BU.

  155. jp says:

    leadfarmer: I’m pretty sure the world is going to see Corey Perry slash the Stanley cup multiple timesbefore cross checking it from behind into the boards

    That would be very fitting. Almost beautiful.

  156. Munny says:

    jp: That would be very fitting. Almost beautiful.

    It’s almost perfect, but I think we all know it would be a slew foot. 😉

  157. jp says:

    Munny,

    Lol. Fair, and a little less beautiful.

  158. Munny says:

    jp:
    Munny,

    Lol. Fair, and a little less beautiful.

    This is Corey Perry. He probably burps and farts at the same time he slew foots.

  159. Munny says:

    leadfarmer: I’m pretty sure the world is going to see Corey Perry slash the Stanley cup multiple times before cross checking it from behind into the boards

    I have to agree with JP. This is poetry.

  160. jp says:

    Munny,

    On Holloway, thanks. And I think LT has it right fading him about half way between #15 and #35.

  161. Munny says:

    jp:
    Munny,

    On Holloway, thanks. And I think LT has it right fading him about half way between #15 and #35.

    Yeah no worries, you put the work in.

    When I first read your piece I was 28-30.

    I might have talked myself back to the other side of LT since, lol.

    Tomorrow if I remember I will see if I can find out if Condredge’s Tier 2 stats can tell us anything.

  162. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Munny,

    Yup, you are correct. I guess I was thinking about the guy lots of folks were lobbying for, lol. I haven’t looked at Holloway’s stuff in awhile.

    Turcotte is a stud, he is Mr, Everything for Wisconsin.

  163. Material Elvis says:

    pts2pndr: Lundel’s skating is more of a concern for me thanHolloway’s offence as a freshman at Wisconsin. Freshmen don’t generally get a lot of ice time so without the ice time it’s hard to say. His previous AJHL MVP award plus straight ahead excellent skating, finishing checks etc says he will be a very good safe pick for some team. LT and others have alluded to the fact that there are a number of higher ranked players with just average skating. It will be, as always, very interesting to see who the Oilers pick. Guhle is a D pick that I wouldn’t touch until the third round or later due his lack of offensive IQ and his off the boards go to for getting the puck out of his end of the ice,

    I’m not concerned so much with Lundell’s skating. Playing off the rush isn’t his strength; instead, he does everything that McDavid and Draisaitl don’t do. Ultra strong defensive positioning, strong on faceoffs, and some offensive ability. Horvat’s skating was the knock on him in his draft year, too. I think Lundell is close to that level, which is more than adequate. Would still prefer Jarvis but Lundell is a guy who would take on some tough minutes at 3C.

  164. hunter1909 says:

    Reja: Washington, St. Loo and soon to be Dallas. Holland better find a couple of players with not only skill but a edge to their game.

    The main thing is to not get physically intimidated and the Oilers as constituted are probably one if not the toughest team in the NHL.

    Although they need players like you mention, Jordan Eberle would look good playing with either one of the Oilers top two centremen lol

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woogie63:
    Woodguy you contribute a lot to Edmonton hockey conversation, thanks.Would it be possible to give a score to the current internal 3C candidates?

    Haas, Marody, Nuge and maybe Khaira

    Thanks for the kind words.

    Haas, Marody and Khaira would rate lower than Nosek.

    Nuge is the 3rd best offensive talent on the team and needs to play with one of the two above him to maximize everyone’s ability imo.

  166. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy this Lowetide place has gone right downhill ever since you stopped regularly posting.

    Death March™ was counting on a reasonable run by the Oilers while being more than slightly concerned about the snowflakes from Rexall measuring up against a 3X relatively recent cup winner.

    Fortunately Darnell Nurse and his friends weren’t too worried with that outcome, or else their agents might decide to rattle the local media cages and start up another Tar and Feathers post-Sather Oilers special.

    Hope you return, to help clean this town up.

  167. Reja says:

    jp: I don’t disagree the Oilers should have brought more of a physical game to the Blackhawks.

    But in his whole 13 year career has anyone ever neutralized Toews with a body check?

    Definitely not a younger Toews but we’re talking the play-ins Toews knows his team had zero chance to win 4 rounds and the cup. If the Oilers would have layed him out a couple of times his name would have disappeared into the night. Did you see what Dallas did to Point last night they neutered him no way Dallas could play this heavy hockey all year but ‘‘tis the season

  168. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Reja: Washington, St. Loo and soon to be Dallas. Holland better find a couple of players with not only skill but a edge to their game.

    He has them. They just need to play with it

  169. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909:
    Woodguy this Lowetide place has gone right downhill ever since you stopped regularly posting.

    Death March™ was counting on a reasonable run by the Oilers while being more than slightly concerned about the snowflakes from Rexall measuring up against a 3X relatively recent cup winner.

    Fortunately Darnell Nurse and his friends weren’t too worried with that outcome, or else their agents might decide to rattle the local media cages and start up another Tar and Feathers post-Sather Oilers special.

    Hope you return, to help clean this town up.

    Thanks Hunter.

    I can see posting more often when the next regular season starts.

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