Value

Leon Draisaitl swept all of the major awards from the Academy last night, and now 2020 will be remembered, at least in part, as the year he put German hockey at the top of the game. Congratulations, Mr. Drasaitl!

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

LEON’S WIN

If you have a look at the PHWA votes, it’s easy to see a change is on the way. More analytics seep into the conversation each year, with Connor Hellebuyck front and center as an example of a player getting more love than he would have a decade ago. We’re going to have disagreements in a close year like this one, but I also believe there are other forces at work. People don’t like new ideas, it takes them out of their comfort zone. My question for that situation is “wouldn’t you rather be right?” and we are here. I believe Leon Draisaitl earned the Hart Memorial Trophy last year, wrote about it in the post above. Many agree with me, others do not. That’s cool. I’d love to know the decision making process you went through to arrive at your conclusion.

My reasoning is not completely math based, but the math of his season proves my point. It was epic, and possibly franchise altering because the move to center impacts the Oilers future in a big way. However, I’ve lived long enough to know knowledge is power and my knowledge can be improved. So I’m going to pursue why some believe Leon didn’t earn the award, beginning with finding out the answer to the question I pose below.

ELUSIVE CONCLUSIONS

One thing about the Oilers 2019-20 season that is driving me around the bend is contained in the pages of Puck IQ. As you know, Puck IQ ‘bins’ a player’s opposition into three categories: Elites (the best), Middle (middle) and Gritensity (the lower portions of a roster). Intuitively, we’d conclude that a great player would play the elites to just above par, do some damage against the middle and rarely see the gritensity people. Right?

  • McDavid versus elites: 47.80DFF%; DFF%RelC +4.10; GF-GA: 26-16 +10
  • McDavid versus middle: 50.00DFF%; DFF%RelC -1.30; GF-GA: 13-21 -8
  • McDavid versus gritensity: 51.40DFF%; DFF%RelC -1.90; GF-GA: 22-21 +1

I have been staring at this for a long time and all I have is more questions. McDavid is underwater in Dangerous Fenwick against elites and that still puts him miles ahead rel compared to other Oilers forwards. He outscores the elites despite the possession gap.

What the hell? Is this a reflection of McDavid’s one and done offensive sorties? Why did the Oilers lose so much (eight goals!) against middle competition while logic and reason suggested they had a clear advantage? Is it the lack of successful breakout passes? Let’s look at 2018-19:

  • McDavid versus elites: 43.00DFF%; DFF%RelC 0.30; GF-GA: 26-19 +7
  • McDavid versus middle: 52.80DFF%; DFF%RelC 7.70; GF-GA: 23-27 -4
  • McDavid versus gritensity: 55.78DFF%; DFF%RelC 2.30; GF-GA: 27-29 -2

These results make more sense while also being a disappointment. McDavid on the ice in these two seasons is losing the chance battle against the elites but winning the war; Winning the chance battle against the middle opposition but losing (slightly) the war; Dominating the chance battle but losing (slightly) the war versus the lower end. Quality of linemates, quality of outlet passing and goaltending (he’s winning the possession battle here) are possible factors, plus the player is maturing on plays without the puck. Let’s go back to 2016-17.

  • McDavid versus elites: 56.00DFF%; DFF%RelC 11.70; GF-GA: 27-14 +13
  • McDavid versus middle: 56.30DFF%; DFF%RelC 11.50; GF-GA: 27-17 +10
  • McDavid versus gritensity: 57.60DFF%; DFF%RelC 4.60; GF-GA: 23-16 +7

So here it is. That’s the kind of results set one expects from the best player in the game. McDavid is a more aware defensive player now than he was in 2016-17, so what happened? Well, in 2016-17 he played most often with Oscar Klefbom (479 minutes), Adam Larsson (470), Andrej Sekera (452) and Kris Russell (413). This season, his most common defensemen were Darnell Nurse (600 minutes), Ethan Bear (585), Oscar Klefbom (291) and Kris Russell (167). Perhaps that’s a reason for the OEL rumours. Now, let’s run the numbers for the No. 1 five on five line from each season via Natural Stat Trick:

  • Patrick Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl ’16-17: 543 minutes, 293-248 shots (54.2 percent), 32-21 goals (60.4 percent).
  • Draisaitl-McDavid-Zack Kassian ’19-20: 443 minutes, 233-271 shots (46.23 percent), 28-25 goals (52.8 percent)

McDavid’s one and done sortie style would have been on display in 2016-17, these numbers are spectacular and obviously had a major impact. Comparing those totals to McDavid in 2019-20 is beyond maddening. What the hell? You can blame McDavid for not backchecking, but that’s folly because he is a better player now without the puck than he was in 2016-17. My answers are more minutes with Klefbom and Sekera in 2016-17, plus Cam Talbot was enjoying a strong season.

I want Connor McDavid to cheat for offense, and I don’t believe Patrick Maroon is a brilliant two-way winger. However, it’s clear there’s a friggin’ in the riggin’ and it needs to be fixed.

Craig Button published his Oilers top 10 prospects yesterday, I respect his opinion and it’s always good to have him chime in on anything related to prospects. There’s not much to disagree with, he likes Phil Kemp a lot and college defensemen are often difficult to project (I never valued John Marino, never saw the player he was, partly because of Adam Fox). Kemp might be a player the Oilers should try to sign in the coming days.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A big show today with much to discuss, we get rolling at 10 on TSN1260. Tom Gazzola from TSN and NHL Network will join me at 10:20 to chat about the Stanley Cup Final and what the Oilers will do over the next three weeks. At 10:40, Taylor Baird from Defending Big D will discuss the Dallas Stars and their outstanding run in the playoffs. At 11, Sean Highkin from Bleacher Report will talk about the madness of the NBA playoffs, it has been quite a ride. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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190 Responses to "Value"

  1. Brantford Boy says:

    Morpheus (LT) : I’m trying to free your mind, Neo. But I can only show you the door. You’re the one that has to walk through it.

    After looking at the McDavid numbers I wish I had taken the blue pill.

    Awesome Draisaitl won both awards and deservedly… right now I’m enjoying a healthy serving of crow for breakfast as I recall thinking at the time 8.5M was an overpay.

  2. frjohnk says:

    Yeah. He won the Hart. But can he drive a line?

  3. Ryan says:

    The friggin’ in the riggin’ has a simple explanation.

    Kassian.

    The 97 line takes on a lot of water in goals against with 44.

    Also, booth 29 and 97 struggle to out score when they don’t play together (due to a lack of top six quality players.

    Obviously, the Nuge Draisaitl Yamamoto like being the exception.

  4. Oilpower says:

    Was 16-17 the last time that klefbom and larson were both healthy and playing well? Therefore giving the Oilers a true top pairing? The team has been running the same d-men for 3 seasons and struggling at 5 on 5, yes we need an upgrade at the top not bottom of the roster. Otherwise we are hoping that broberg will eventually pass klef and that bouchard will pass larson, but who knows how long that will take!

  5. Lowetide says:

    Ryan:
    The friggin’ in the riggin’ has a simple explanation.

    Kassian.

    The 97 line takes on a lot of water in goals against with 44.

    Also, booth 29 and 97 struggle to out score when they don’t play together (due to a lack of top six quality players.

    Obviously, the Nuge Draisaitl Yamamoto like being the exception.

    Five on Five on-ice goal differentials

    2016-17 McDavid with Maroon 44-27 (62.0 percent)
    2019-20 McDavid with Kassian 42-35 (54.6 percent)

    2016-17 McDavid on ice without Maroon: 33-20 (62.3 percent)
    2019-20 McDavid on ice without Kassian: 20-23 (46.5 percent)

    These numbers imply Kassian is superior to current options on the team, which is different than saying you’re incorrect.

  6. TheGreatBigMac says:

    I’d be up for getting Maroon back, anyone else?

  7. Paulie says:

    I remember 2015 when Leon was called up and put on a line with Hall. Leon scored 26 points in his first 20 games (I believe) and I thought, hell, he can really play (with elite talent at least). It’s fair to say that the distance between him and Connor in terms of impacting the game is much smaller today than five years ago. My question is whether Leon has closed that gap entirely and is now one of the two best players in the game. Would anyone entertain the argument that Leon has surpassed Connor by a small margin?

  8. JJS says:

    One top flight winger needed

    All reasonable candidates will be considered

    Salary will be commiserate with experience and likely to increase with performance

    Grinders need not apply

  9. dustrock says:

    Drai’s numbers are:

    Elites: 49.40 DFF% And RelC +7.00 GF 58%
    Mids: 47.90 DFF% and RelC -3.60 GF 45%

    Yeah guessing the D is the problem. How do you have an outstanding number against elites and then fail against mids? Maybe the goaltending?

    Funny looking at gritensity the GF and GA are 80s hockey compared to elites and mids.

    Elites GF 3.00 GA 2.14:
    Mids: GF 2.62 GA 3.20
    Grits: GF 5.22 GA 4.66

    Life is the funniest book I’ve ever read, there isn’t a hook, just a lot of cheap shots, pictures that shock, and characters an amateur would never dream up

  10. dustrock says:

    I was busy yesterday so sorry if this is a repeat but Wheeler’s updated rankings are up and always worth a look:

    https://theathletic.com/2019544/2020/09/21/wheeler-updated-ranking-for-the-2020-nhl-drafts-top-100-prospects/

    Mercer at #19:
    Mercer has learned to maximize everything he has. This isn’t to say he isn’t talented. He is. But I don’t see the typical A-level tools you see in the top 15 or 16 players on my board. Mercer’s effective all over the ice by making a lot of little plays with pace and aggression. He attacks defenders when he has the puck. He attacks opposing carriers when he doesn’t. He wins more 50/50 battles than he should by getting underneath his man and keeping his feet moving. And then he has enough skill to escape pressure, beat the first defender and make a play. All told, he’s probably one of the safer bets to become an impactful NHL player. I would have liked to see him dictate play offensively a little more than he did after a trade to Chicoutimi, though, so that contributed to a bit of a fall over the course of the season and this summer as I continued my review. Players like Jarvis, Holloway, and Sanderson played their best hockey down the stretch, while Mercer plateaued more than you’d hope out of one of the draft’s older players.

    He has Mysak up at #12 over Zary and Jarvis. Fascinating.

  11. Reja says:

    Paulie:
    I remember 2015 when Leon was called up and put on a line with Hall. Leon scored 26 points in his first 20 games (I believe) and I thought, hell, he can really play (with elite talent at least). It’s fair to say that the distance between him and Connor in terms of impacting the game is much smaller today than five years ago. My question is whether Leon has closed that gap entirely and is now one of the two best players in the game. Would anyone entertain the argument that Leon has surpassed Connor by a small margin?

    Leon hasn’t peaked yet he’s a power centre that can score and has the best long backhanded passes the game has ever seen.

  12. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Congrats Leon! What a season! And fully deserved honours…Not bad for a “2C”. 😉

    Now that Line 2 seems to be in great shape, it is a matter of getting Line 1 back to where it should be with McD. It would be great to have some time to experiment. Really. I think there was an over-reliance on going to Kass as 1RW, of course, due to limited alternatives…

    But looking ahead better options for W for McD should include:
    Haas
    Nygaard
    Benson
    JP

    those are players (sort of on the roster) with warts but with skill and 200 ft game.

    There are options off the roster as well…
    Ennis
    others…

    Down the road…Lavoie??

    For these reasons I think the Oilers need to draft a skilled complete C or W.

  13. who says:

    TheGreatBigMac:
    I’d be up for getting Maroon back, anyone else?

    Maybe for league minimum on the 4th line. But then we already have Neal and Chiasson in that role, so Maroon would be really redundant.
    If you are thinking of acquiring him to play with McDavid I would say absolutely not.

  14. Paulie says:

    Reja: Leon hasn’t peaked yet he’s a power centre that can score and has the best long backhanded passes the game has ever seen.

    Agree 100%. Plus he has some room to grow on the defensive side of the game. Is he McDavid’s equal on the ice? Slightly ahead? Slightly lagging?

  15. Brantford Boy says:

    dustrock: Funny looking at gritensity the GF and GA are 80s hockey compared to elites and mids.

    Can you post this past season please?

  16. Elgin R says:

    Caveat: McDavid was not 100% last season due to injury rehab. When he had 3-months to train (not just rehab) he was dominant in the ‘return-to-play’ putting up 9pts in 4 games.

    What worked for Leon? The formation of the DRY line gave him; two wingers with high-end hockey smarts with an excellent offensive / defensive forward in RNH and a tenacious forechecker (and back checker) in Yammy. So, great outcomes by having great players together!

    How does Holland / Tippet do the same for McDavid within the confines of little cap space, virtually no assets and a difficult trade market (is there ever an easy trade market?).
    Nygard – 97 – Tyler Johnson
    If Tampa wins the cup and Johnson waives his NTC, the Bolts will have to retain some salary to get rid of him and maybe, just maybe the Oilers can make it work.

  17. Eh Team says:

    Paulie: Would anyone entertain the argument that Leon has surpassed Connor by a small margin?

    Both great players obviously, but McDavid >> Drai.

    Drai took off when he got RNH and Yamo as linemates. And McDavid with lesser linemates still drew the other teams best players. That tells you who the other NHL coaches thought was the better player (and Tippett as well).

    Both Drais and McDavid defensive numbers (and GF%) will go up once the Oilers get better players, another forward who can play with skill, better D’men (or just Bear and Jones with more experience) and better 3rd and 4th line options. Improvements everywhere even incrementally will lift everyone’s boat.

  18. Reja says:

    Paulie: Agree 100%. Plus he has some room to grow on the defensive side of the game. Is he McDavid’s equal on the ice? Slightly ahead? Slightly lagging?

    If I’m starting a franchise I’m picking Leon first and and on D it’s Makar. I know Connor’s the sexy pick but I believe Leon still has another level I don’t know if Connor has after fuk face from down south took out his knee for shits and giggles. Still can’t believe Nurse and Kassian let him slide and Sam fuking Gagner was the only Oiler that has gone after sneaky Gio.

  19. Woogie63 says:

    Driasaitl’s line is more established with 93 and 56 locked on those wings.

    I like the idea of running McDavid 2C and running Kassian and Benson on the wings.

    Benson’s board play is really improved, his passing will get McDavid the puck to transport, it is a unique “one man” show.

    Once the puck is in the offensive zone it is about, positioning, board battle, possession and quickness vs. speed. Benson does all this really well.

  20. godot10 says:

    Oilpower:
    Was 16-17 the last time that klefbom and larson were both healthy and playing well? Therefore giving the Oilers a true top pairing? The team has been running the same d-men for 3 seasons and struggling at 5 on 5, yes we need an upgrade at the top not bottom of the roster. Otherwise we are hoping that broberg will eventually pass klef and that bouchard will pass larson, but who knows how long that will take!

    One could separate out Klefbom and Larsson from Sekera and Russell, and Klefbom and Larsson from Nurse and Bear,

    I think(/hypothesize/recall) one would find that most of McDavid’s outscoring in 2016/17 actually came with Sekera (and Russell). When I have time, I will look this up.

  21. godot10 says:

    TheGreatBigMac:
    I’d be up for getting Maroon back, anyone else?

    For what he was paid in St. Louis and Tampa…sure. Not for what he was asking from the OIlers.

    He doesn’t fit now though in a reasonable plan. The OIlers already have too many wingers who are average to bad defensively and don’t PK, and he is getting older.

  22. rickithebear says:

    JP:
    I read your comment re OTF shift/60 count as a way to shelter players.

    I stated years ago that all Corsi For aNd against must have 2 seperate data tables based on
    FO zone start
    And
    Bench change (OTF) zone starts with or without pocession.
    The failure to capture with or with on OTF can skew /60 results by 50%.

    It was clear to me that sheltering based OTF shift per 60 was nothing compared to with or without pocession/60

    Once again Moneyball analytics: look at table scraps when the the diner is in front of you!

    You do not ignore large affects if they are not played the same by all teams.
    -Homeplate abandonment 2D-1G vs 1D-1G outcomes.
    – strong NZ transition pressure vs Not.
    2 tables are required for outcome measures.
    Dman abandonment results in low NZ pressure rates.
    So performance must be differentiated on abandoned and non abandoned structures.

  23. godot10 says:

    Paulie:
    I remember 2015 when Leon was called up and put on a line with Hall. Leon scored 26 points in his first 20 games (I believe) and I thought, hell, he can really play (with elite talent at least). It’s fair to say that the distance between him and Connor in terms of impacting the game is much smaller today than five years ago. My question is whether Leon has closed that gap entirely and is now one of the two best players in the game. Would anyone entertain the argument that Leon has surpassed Connor by a small margin?

    Draisaitl has being improving every year. And has basically caught McDavid and MacKinnon, who have sort of flatlined. Momentum suggests that there is a chance Draisaitl can surpass them.

  24. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Lowetide: Five on Five on-ice goal differentials

    2016-17 McDavid with Maroon 44-27 (62.0 percent)
    2019-20 McDavid with Kassian 42-35 (54.6 percent)

    2016-17 McDavid on ice without Maroon: 33-20 (62.3 percent)
    2019-20 McDavid on ice without Kassian: 20-23 (46.5 percent)

    These numbers imply Kassian is superior to current options on the team, which is different than saying you’re incorrect.

    So if the numbers support Kass as 1RW, then it is the missing link at 1LW that remains the problem?

  25. leadfarmer says:

    If you want Mcdavid to improve in the goal shares department give him real linemates and cut back his minutes and have a real third line. Mcdavid and Drai know if they dont score now one will leads to taking more chances offensively

  26. Reja says:

    who: Maybe for league minimum on the 4th line. But then we already have Neal and Chiassonin that role, so Maroon would be really redundant.
    If you are thinking of acquiring him to play with McDavid I would say absolutely not.

    It was either keep the older Maroon or Kassian they chose Kassian. I would bet a small fortune that snaky Gio would have gotten thumped by old school paddy if he was patrolling Connors line that day.

  27. godot10 says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: So if the numbers support Kass as 1RW, then it is the missing link at 1LW that remains the problem?

    The numbers support getting rid of Kassian as soon as possible. Kassian isn’t a solution to anything, and is one of the biggest problems.

  28. rickithebear says:

    Woogie: I read your comment in yesterday’s post.

    Our top off talent is good.
    But you need top 125 fwd depth and Evg scoring depth in playoffs.

    Final four teams get wins with 2GA or less.
    2 ga in 4 series wins championship standard.

    When it comes to identifying elite def dmen EVGA/60 has a 85% capture rate yr to yr.
    Statistics have no value if they fail at identifying what players help win championships.
    Fenwick is the worst with 45% capture rates.
    For some elite Def Dmen video shows that they have their def numbers dragged down by the disappearing act of their def partners.

    19/20Top 218 EVTOI Dmen:
    Def rank:
    Bear 20th worst 3.26
    Nurse 28th worst 3.22
    Klefbom 31st worse 3.16
    They have an Average of 3.213

    These 3 supplying 35 ev min in 2 Def pairs in a game.
    35/60 x 3.213 = 1.874 evg/gm
    That means In final 4 play our other def Pr and PK cannot give up any goals cause of the nightmare def these Homeplate abandoning rovers provide to their side.

    We are not a championship team with these three on the roster.
    Other top Dmen ranks.
    Sekera #1 1.15
    De Haan #3 1.33 Elite closed shot dman
    Russell #6 1.60 Elite closed shot dman
    Benning #11 1.79
    Larsson #91 2.53 Larsson. Was the #2 Def dman 2 seasons before coming to the oilers.

    Our 100 evmin Dpairs:
    Russell – Benning 0.79
    Benning – Jones 1.22
    Russell – Klefbom 1.50
    Russell – Larsson 1.77
    Russell – Jones 1.95
    Larsson – Jones 1.96
    —————————— 2.00
    Klefbom – bear 2.03
    Larsson – Klefbom 2.65
    Klefbom – Pearson 2.94
    Nurse – bear 3.23
    Klefbom – Jones 5.16

    When rovers occupy forward space they are taking away forward pocession.
    Looking at all oilers skaters shooting% (330 ev min is top 14 fwds)
    Yamamotto 21.95%
    Draisaitl 17.76%
    Archibald 17.54%
    Kassian 16.13%
    Mcdavid 14.84%
    RNH 12.50%
    Sheehan 11.67%
    Jones 10.81%
    ————————— 10.53% is league avg for top 12 fwds
    Khaira 9.38%
    Neal 8.75%
    Haas 7.55%
    Chaisson 7.46%
    Gagner 6.45
    Nygard 5.46
    Bear 4.44
    Nurse 3.23
    Benning 2.63
    Klefbom 2.46
    Larsson 1.67
    K. Russell 0.00

    The league avg for Top 12 fwd is .99 EVA/60
    Nurse is just below with .96 but a train reck when it comes defence.
    A huge goal dif anchor.
    Benning is our 2nd best dman .78 EVA/60;while being a top 10 Def dman most of the yr.

    I want to win championships like any other oilers fan!
    We need a top +ve save% goalie relative to the expected save% established by Dpairs open shots allowed.
    Closed shots ruin actual x,y shot success ( density analysis)

  29. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    godot10: The numbers support getting rid of Kassian as soon as possible.Kassian isn’t a solution to anything, and is one of the biggest problems.

    Right, right, right. Put cement shoes on the guy and dump him in the N. Saskatchewan.

    But the numbers I was referring to that LT presented suggest he is not “one of the biggest problems”

    Note: I am not a huge advocate for the player, just trying to follow the bouncing puck…number stuff.

  30. Klima's_Bucket says:

    leadfarmer: If you want Mcdavid to improve in the goal shares department give him real linemates and cut back his minutes and have a real third line.

    Or, you could limit the time McDavid plays with Nurse and acquire a goaltender that is league average instead of Mike Smith.

  31. jimdewger says:

    When reading James Mirtle’s buyout candidates today, I was wondering about the idea of a Kris Russell for Devan Dubnyk trade. Both have 1 year left around 4 million bucks. Dubnyk’s cap hit is a couple hundred thousand higher and Russell has a far smaller actual salary, so maybe Minnesota includes a late draft pick or mid tier prospect. It seems like a decent fit to me. Any thoughts?

  32. Eh Team says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: leadfarmer: If you want Mcdavid to improve in the goal shares department give him real linemates and cut back his minutes and have a real third line.

    Or, you could limit the time McDavid plays with Nurse and acquire a goaltender that is league average instead of Mike Smith.

    A big yes on both a real third line and a better goalie than Mike Smith.

  33. rickithebear says:

    GF%.
    which data chart was that from?
    FO ZS with Or without pocession
    OTF ZS with or without pocession.
    What sets of fwds and D pairs were they facing.

    Some variables are critical.

    A little Apollo program joke!
    One of the lead NASA managers comes in to a room and looks at a mission commander.
    “We have determined that the Lighter Gemini capsule has a better chance of getting to the moon.“
    Commander says, “You sure that is your position?”
    Manager says “ we want the best chance of getting to the moon.”
    Commander walks over to the guard.
    Takes the guards Revolver And shoots the manager in the head.
    Commander leans over the body And says, “ I want to get to the moon, back, and alive.”
    Guard says “I will dispose of the idiot right away.“

    Finally remember all the joke.
    I had seen a picture of the guy telling it “He was hand feeding a 2nd yr old Polar Bear.“
    Also seen my Dad and his best man, feeding the 2 yr old to get it out of the Rocket range Cafeteria.
    I was just enamoured of my dads Churchill friends.

  34. knighttown says:

    Figgin in the riggin; there are two major questions that boggle the mind:
    1. Why has McDavid fallen from the absolute dominant perch in GF/GA he held a couple of years ago?
    2. Why does he outproduce elites but struggle against medicrity

    Answering the latter first as I believe it’s an easier answer. It’s easier to obstruct than create. If you’re Connor Garland or Carson Soucey and you find yourself out there against McDavid any thought of scoring goes out the window. When you have the puck you’re holding it or placing it somewhere 200 feet from the net and when you don’t have it you are standing within one foot of the man even in your offensive zone. When McDavid is out there against MacKinnon or Gaudreau they are careful with him but they still need to try and produce and in the end, it’s a coin toss between two heavyweights.

    This is actually the plague of the NHL; obstruction over creation, but that’s for another day.

    As for why McDavid has apparently regressed, mostly just guesses:
    1. Scouting and game planning. No one else in the NHL gets covered 180 feet from the scoring area but he does.
    2. Injury last year
    3. Minutes played

  35. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Or, you could limit the time McDavid plays with Nurse and acquire a goaltender that is league average instead of Mike Smith.

    Except McDavid is better when on-ice with Nurse IIRC. My last check of these numbers was over the past 3 seasons FWIW.

  36. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: Five on Five on-ice goal differentials

    2016-17 McDavid with Maroon 44-27 (62.0 percent)
    2019-20 McDavid with Kassian 42-35 (54.6 percent)

    2016-17 McDavid on ice without Maroon: 33-20 (62.3 percent)
    2019-20 McDavid on ice without Kassian: 20-23 (46.5 percent)

    These numbers imply Kassian is superior to current options on the team, which is different than saying you’re incorrect.

    In fairness, Connor without Kassian is 20 – 23. -3 goals over 392 minutes.

    I agree with you that Kassian is the best available option when the alternatives deployed were Sam Gagner, Josh Archibald, Alex Chiasson, and James Neal.

    Now, that’s the crux of the problem right there. 🙂

  37. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    One interesting trend, Connor’s GA/60 rate has been climbing.
    We know 97 is all-world at many things, but playing defense is not one of them.

    2017-18

    97 with Maroon. 2.75
    97 without Maroon. 2.71

    2018-19

    97 and 29.3.28
    97 without 29. 3.34

    2019-20

    97 and 44. 3.17
    97 without 44. 3.52

  38. Eh Team says:

    rickithebear: When rovers occupy forward space they are taking away forward pocession.

    Hockey is really following the example of football (soccer) in moving to a more position less game, Yeah, defensemen are turning into rovers but that’s to create offense and outman the opposition to create scoring chances. (Yes, I know that’s not a plus in your model of successful hockey but that’s the way the NHL is going). So you get great players like Makar and Hughes (and Bear and Jones are in this model too).

    And a big tactical emphasis in soccer is pressing way up the field, playing defense far away from your net and getting possession back quickly after losing it. Same goes for hockey. The best defense is played in the offensive zone and in preventing entry into your zone.

    It’s nice to have strong stay at home d’men in your zone, but if those guys can’t make a pass or exit the zone they aren’t that useful. And they need to support the offense. That’s why guys like Russell (and Larsson) are on their way out of the NHL.

    Replace a Russell with a Jones and you spend less time in your zone and in that way improve your defensive play.

  39. rickithebear says:

    One of my first post on HF boards was arguing what real hockey tough was.
    I stated Flin Flon Bomber violence was about defending and attacking the area in front of the net.
    My observation that drove Homeplate theory.
    Had no name for it.

    I think that was in 2007.
    It was at this time that I started generating expected season average based on Team, Comp, ZS.
    So we could measure a + ve and – ve outcome for diffrent columns of data.

    I stated Eberle was hockey tough cause he was willing to penetrate Homeplate.
    Which lead to a higher shooting%

    Their was also a silly arguement on this site weather a players SH% was repeatable.
    Each player has their own xSH% based on Homeplate penetration and open shot targeting.

    People did not understand that each skater has their own Xsh%
    Dmen establish their own xSave% ( xGA) to Thier side.
    Each Goalie has their own +ve or -ve sAve% relative to xSave% baseline established by Dpairs.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lavoie signs with Vasby in Sweden – HockeyAllsvenskan

    Great stuff – probably a better league for the rookie pro than the SHL.

    He should get considerable ice.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    For those that care, one can find the full ballots for all the PHWA voted awards here:

    https://www.thephwa.com/2020/09/22/2019-nhl-awards-ballots-from-phwa-members-2/

  42. rickithebear says:

    EH team you are talking Reg season hockey.
    That approach is a losers menatality!
    2 teams win championships and 29 loser orgs each yr.

    Final 4 teams avg 2ga or less in their 4 gm of final 2 series wins.

    Their is a regular season of entertainment noise
    And
    Final 2 rounds of important 2D-1G playoff open shot defence.

    That is what everyone does not get.

  43. OilClog says:

    Twitter big mad, it’s beautiful.

  44. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    I’d like to see Nygard get another try with 97. He was good every time I saw him last year. I think he’ll be even better with a year under his belt. but you’d have to go better than Kass on RW in this scenario.

    Nygard – McDavid – Yamamoto
    Nuge – Leon – Archie
    Athaniseau – Haas – Kassian
    Neal – Khaira – Chaisson

    These are all the pieces we currently have to the puzzle.

    PS : I can’t wait to see how the Athaniseau situation plays out.

  45. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Reja,

    Actually Burke reported on Bob’s show the rift in the room was between Lucic and Maroon.

  46. Android says:

    Bohologo:
    In the spirit of being pushed out of one’s comfort zone, this is worth reading:

    https://theathletic.com/2083566/2020/09/22/why-i-left-draisaitl-carlson-and-couturier-off-my-nhl-awards-ballot/

    I give credit to Luszczyszyn for being transparent about his reasoning, which shows a certain integrity.I do worry that his reliance on his model creates blind spots; I think the adage goes something like all models are wrong, but some models are useful.

    I’ve seen a fair amount of discussion elsewhere about Luszczyszyn and a few other voters who left Draisaitl or MacKinnon off their ballots, and said discussion brought to mind Point Shares.

    I’m not nearly as knowledgeable about stats as anyone else here, so I was curious what the crowds’ thoughts are on Point Shares? Useful, mediocre, or nonsense?

  47. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    EH team you are talking Reg season hockey.
    That approach is a losers menatality!
    2 teams win championships and 29 loser orgs each yr.

    Final 4 teams avg 2ga or less in their 4 gm of final 2 series wins.

    Their is a regular season of entertainment noise
    And
    Final 2 rounds of important 2D-1G playoff open shot defence.

    That is what everyone does not get.

    I’ll be very curious how you spin the “D provide 4th line forward level offense” Yet two defensemen are leading the Dallas stars in point

  48. rickithebear says:

    LT:
    Corsi, Fenwick, shots /60 do not capture the open/ closed shot affect.
    Only EVGA/60 includes the influence of:
    -forward open shot targeting density
    – dman establishing xSave% (xGA) baseline by homeplate and open shot reduction.
    – goalie true +ve or -ve save% vs xSave% established by Dmen.

  49. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    rickithebear,

    I look through that list of your favoured d-pairings and see two things:

    — small sample size alert
    — weak quality of competition

    Does your Cup Core Theory explain that?

  50. OilClog says:

    Dom at the athletic clearly didn’t watch the games, just his preferred stat sheets.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Math aside (and, while one cannot simply remove a month to prop up a narrative, take out December and the season is other-worldly), the definition of the Hart is “most valuable to the team” and, when McDavid was out in early 2020, I think the world saw (or whoever was paying attention saw) exactly how valulable Drai was to the team in 2019/20.

    The entire hockey world, including Oilers fans, MSM, bloggers, etc. posited catastrophe – well, Leon ensured that catastrophe did not strike – he not only continued his league leading play but he played better. He led the team to, I believe a 4-2-1 record, including a tough eastern road trip and upped his game to 2 P/G.

    Connor McDavid is the best player in the world and the most valuable Oiler – in 2019/20, Leon Draisaitl was the most valuable player to the Oilers and the most valuable player to his team in the league.

    I anticipate for the [2020]/2021 season, Connor McDavid will be the most valuable player to the Oilers – or OEL…. ha!

  52. Eh Team says:

    rickithebear: We are not a championship team with these three on the roster.
    Other top Dmen ranks.
    Sekera #1 1.15

    You have a system that ranks Sekera as a top d’man. This is the same player that is trusted to play a whopping 14 minutes per game as a 3rd pair D in the playoffs.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    Buyout period starts in a few days (the 25th) – potential for the likes of MAF and Ludquist to be bought out (although I think those will be last resort options and only officialized near the end of the period if at all). Maybe Dubnyk as well.

    Unless the Oilers can pull a solid value trade for a younger goalie like Korpisalo, I’m generally not in favor of material assets going out for a goalie or material cap given. I have a feeling about Konovalov being ready for 1B in 2021/22 (the last year of Mikko’s contract) and would be fine with a one-year stop gap on a decent bet like Dubnyk or Stalock or Aaron Dell for example.

    There is some talk about MAF being bought out and returning to Pit to mentor Jarry.

    Would that not mean Casey DeSmith would be available?

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ya, I noticed Phil Kemp on button’s list yesterday and has heartened.

    There was great verbal about him being the best defensive d-man in the Ivy league – he makes teams change their offensive strategy. Can’t remember where I heard/read that.

    Anyways, still very “interested” to see if Kemp has a place to play hockey this coming year with the Ivy League cancelled.

  55. Elgin R says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    I’d like to see Nygard get another try with 97.He was good every time I saw him last year.I think he’ll be even better with a year under his belt.but you’d have to go better than Kass on RW in this scenario.

    Nygard – McDavid – Yamamoto
    Nuge – Leon – Archie
    Athaniseau – Haas – Kassian
    Neal – Khaira – Chaisson

    These are all the pieces we currently have to the puzzle.

    PS : I can’t wait to see how the Athaniseau situation plays out.

    3rd Line: Could work. All are fast and AA can transport, Kassian can forecheck and Hass can be the defensive player (and of course draw penalties).

    2nd Line: NO. Do not break up the DRY line.

    4th Line: Trade Chiasson and play Archie as 4RW

    1st Line: Yes to Nygard – 97. Now what about RW? JP or an acquisition.

    The team looks good without any major shakeups. Just need to trade KRusty and Chiasson.

  56. Eh Team says:

    Elgin R: The team looks good without any major shakeups. Just need to trade KRusty and Chiasson.

    This lineup has 6 4th line forwards- Nygaard, Archibald, Hass, Neal, Khaira and Chiasson.

  57. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Eh Team,

    Small sample sizes and quality of competition issues.

    Same as it ever was.

  58. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer: I’ll be very curious how you spin the “D provide 4th line forward level offense”Yet two defensemen are leading the Dallas stars in point

    3-1-1-1 vs 3-2-1 is clearly only about Even play.
    Allways state first 2 rd get rid of the shite def teams.
    PP is advantage based play and historically you generate goals at 2.5 to 3 times the EVG rate.
    Teams can run 3f-2D, 4fwd-1D, 5fwd

    Dallas played 3 pre playoff games and 20 playoff gm’s.
    Rd 1 versus CGY was 6 gm
    Heiskanen
    2 evg 4eva 6 evp
    1 ppg 1 ppa 2 ppp
    Klingberg
    1G 4 Eva 5 evp
    0ppg 1 ppA 1 pp

    Rd 2 versus Col 7 gm
    Heiskanen
    1 evg 4 Eva 5 Evp
    1 ppg 3 ppa 4 ppp
    Klingberg
    1 evg 2eva 3 evp
    0 ppg 2ppa 2 PPP

    First 2 rd:
    Heiskanen 11evp + 6 ppp = 17P/13 gm = 1.31 ppg
    Klingberg 8 evp + 3 ppp = 11/13 = .85 ppg

    Last 2 rd:
    5 gm against VGK
    Heiskanen
    0g 2eva 2 evp
    Klingberg
    1 evg 0eva 1 evp
    0 evg 3 ppa 3 ppp

    2 gm against TBL
    Heiskanen
    0 evg 1 eva 1 evp
    Klingberg
    2 Eva 2 Evp
    1 ppa 1 ppp

    Last 2 rd
    Heiskanen 3 evp/7gm = .43 evppg, .43 ppg
    Klingberg 3 evp/7gm = .43 evppg, 4 ppp/7 = .57 ppppg, 1.00 ppg

    You have to play a tighter def game to win a championship!
    3 rd and 4th option coming down from the pt is the safest attacking approach in last 2 rds.

  59. who says:

    Reja: It was either keep the older Maroon or Kassian they chose Kassian. I would bet a small fortune that snaky Gio would have gotten thumped by old school paddy if he was patrolling Connors line that day.

    I would have chosen Kassian too.
    I have no idea if Maroon would have “thumped ” Giordano, but I do know that Kassian is the better player. And it’s not even close really.

  60. Jiminey says:

    jimdewger:
    When reading James Mirtle’s buyout candidates today, I was wondering about the idea of a Kris Russell for Devan Dubnyk trade. Both have 1 year left around 4 million bucks. Dubnyk’s cap hit is a couple hundred thousand higher and Russell has a far smaller actual salary, so maybe Minnesota includes a late draft pick or mid tier prospect. It seems like a decent fit to me. Any thoughts?

    I had been wondering about this exact trade as well for a couple weeks now. Read in an article about Minnesota wanting to trade Dubnyk and was willing to retain salary to do so. Even if the do not retain, a Koskinen / Dubnyk tandem sounds better to me then Koskinen / Smith. It would be an overpay in goal for a year, but better then having a 4 mil player sitting in the pressbox as Jones has passed Russel on the depth chart.

  61. John Chambers says:

    godot10: Draisaitl has being improving every year.And has basically caught McDavid and MacKinnon, who have sort of flatlined. Momentum suggests that there is a chance Draisaitl can surpass them.

    MacKinnon’s game has grown significantly over the past couple of years. He was nominated for the Hart because he drove the offence of a top-caliber team despite injuries to both his linemates.

    He has not flatlined. He has grown into one of the leagues undisputed top-3 players. Only your opinion has him as having hit his ceiling.

  62. rickithebear says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    rickithebear,

    I look through that list of your favoured d-pairings and see two things:

    — small sample size alert
    — weak quality of competition

    Does your Cup Core Theory explain that?

    You establish your pairs based on ability to establish low ga.
    You need 4+ strong def Dmen.
    The more minutes you can give to the 2 strong Dpairs the less minutes you have to give to a shitty Dpair.
    Just strong Goal diff usage.

    Does not matter if they make sun against low or high comp as long as you are not giving up goals.
    We know Benning and Russell can drive 2 Nd comp pairs and Larsson is one of the best first comp def Dmen to his side in last 6 seasons.
    But it is still dependent on 2 Dmen/ players defending the Homeplate.

    Dal last 14 gm
    Hanley 8 gm 0.75
    Sekera 149 evmin 0.81
    Fedun 47min 2.57
    Heiskanen 288 2.71
    Oleksiuk 270 3.11
    Lindell 269 3.34
    Klingberg 266 3.83
    Sekeras low goal dif was important in the Col series.

    Last 7 gm Dal Dmen have had to play a more Homeplate competative gm.
    Sekera 80.5 evmin 0.00
    Heiskanen 142 evmin 0.84
    Hanley 71 evmin 0.85
    Oleksiuk 135.5 1.33
    Lindell 133 1.35
    Klingberg 129.5 2.31
    Sekera is an anchor that coach is not choosing to give the minutes.
    We will see as the final moves on.

  63. rickithebear says:

    Sample size is a term used when you do not marry video of system human machine Movement with results.
    Do like action with other prs repeat results.
    See 26 yrs of repeat champ core roster.

    Can a failure be attributed to a negative action by another player in the mechanism.
    See Homeplate abandonment.

    You need video and math.

  64. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    rickithebear,

    I understand Sekera’s minutes are low event.

    But that fails to account for his QoC being against the bottom of the roster.

    The coaches (and particularly Todd Nelson who’s running the defense) see Sekera as a bottom of the roster option. A very good one (like Benning), but not one who is suited to play against the best.

    Elite players score goals — thus, defenders most often playing against elite competition will be on the ice for more goals against. It comes with the territory.

    Can you post some of your metrics on Parayko and Pietrangelo last playoffs, or Hedman this year? Chara?

  65. rickithebear says:

    Anyhow:
    To much energy being used.
    Daughter birth day today.
    10yr old

  66. rickithebear says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    rickithebear,

    I understand Sekera’s minutes are low event.

    But that fails to account for his QoC being against the bottom of the roster.

    The coaches (and particularly Todd Nelson who’s running the defense) see Sekera as a bottom of the roster option.A very good one (like Benning), but not one who is suited to play against the best.

    Elite players score goals — thus, defenders most often playing against elite competition will be on the ice for more goals against.It comes with the territory.

    Can you post some of your metrics on Parayko and Pietrangelo last playoffs, or Hedman this year?Chara?

    Some one has to play higher comp.
    But if you have a dman that can anchor a top def pair in a given chomp, you better do it domi leaves room for mistakes.
    You need at least 2 low event pairs and a top 10 open shot save% goalie.
    Period!
    26 yrs of rosters tells me that!

  67. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    Elgin R: 3rd Line:Could work.All are fast and AA can transport, Kassian can forecheck and Hass can be the defensive player (and of course draw penalties).

    2nd Line:NO.Do not break up the DRY line.

    4th Line:Trade Chiasson and play Archie as 4RW

    1st Line:Yes to Nygard – 97.Now what about RW?JP or an acquisition.

    The team looks good without any major shakeups.Just need to trade KRusty and Chiasson.

    I don’t want to break up the DRY line either, but you can’t give Leon the two best wingers on the team and leave Connor to try to do it all himself. Nygard and Yammo are forecheck demons too, which would help that line sustain pressure if the initial rush by Connor gets stopped.

    I also think AA could be a sneaky threat to score on a third line, but he’s pretty expensive for that role. The experiments of him playing with 97 or 29 should be over though. He kind of reminds me of Hall in the way he likes to have the puck on his stick through the neutral zone and O-zone entries. Could work away from the top 2 centres and provide some bottom 6 offence that we’ve been looking for. I thought he looked pretty decent in that role against Chicago.

  68. Reja says:

    who: I would have chosen Kassian too.
    I have no idea if Maroon would have “thumped ” Giordano, but I do know that Kassian is the better player. And it’s not even close really.

    My eyes tell me paddy has a better nose for the net and that includes hands then Kass. I also think Paddy opens up more ice then Kass sporadically does. Nurse and Kass get a big fat F for being pussies in the Chicago series.

  69. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    rickithebear,

    I understand you’re stretched thin for energy these days. Appreciate you taking the time to reply.

    If you have the pep I’d love to see what your numbers say about top-pair dmen compared to the bottom-pair so I can continue to learn more about your roster theory.

    I feel the top pairing defensemen will typically get penalized by your metrics because they play most often against players like: Point, Kucherov, MacKinnon, McDavid, Draisaitl, etc.

    The defensemen you tend to prefer are rarely facing those kinds of players thus their metrics look better.

  70. jp says:

    godot10: The numbers support getting rid of Kassian as soon as possible.Kassian isn’t a solution to anything, and is one of the biggest problems.

    Can you show us these numbers? I have not seen them.

  71. dustrock says:

    Brantford Boy: Can you post this past season please?

    Sorry, those were Drai’s numbers from 19-20.

    Not sure if it will cut and paste very well but I’ll try.

    http://www.puckiq.com/players/8477934

    Elites: CF% 46.00% DFF% 49.40% DFF%RC +7.00 GF% 58.3% GF/60 3.00 GA/60 2.14
    Mids: CF% 48.10% DFF% 47.90% DFF%RC -3.60 GF% 45.00% GF/60 2.62 GA/60 3.20
    Grits: CF% 51.10% DFF% 52.00% DFF%RC 0.20 GF% 52.80% GF/60 5.22 GA/60 4.66

  72. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Jiminey: I had been wondering about this exact trade as well for a couple weeks now. Read in an article about Minnesota wanting to trade Dubnyk and was willing to retain salary to do so. Even if the do not retain, a Koskinen / Dubnyk tandem sounds better to me then Koskinen / Smith. It would be an overpay in goal for a year, but better then having a 4 mil player sitting in the pressbox as Jones has passed Russel on the depth chart.

    One would have to think as well that Doobie would want a shot at redemption in Edmonton…

  73. Ryan says:

    jp: That’s a decent explanation.

    TOI vs elites doesn’t show it but NST and PuckIQ do have some data that supports it.

    FO/60 usually correlates with with difficult minutes.
    Klefbom led the team over the past 3 seasons with 59.5 FO/60
    Nurse was 3rd with 56.9 FO/60

    Dellow and Woodguy were/are all about OTF shifts as a way to shelter players.
    Klefbom had the fewest with 39.8/60
    Nurse had the 2nd fewest with 41.1/60

    DZ start %. Starting in the Dzone is more difficult.
    While Klefbom had a higher % of shifts start on a FO, Nurse had the more difficult zone starts.
    Klefbom 50.8 OZ%
    Nurse — 48.8OZ%

    So Klefbom did play slightly harder minutes, I’m not sure it’s enough to explain much of the PDO variance though. I kinda feel like “blind damn luck” is a more satisfying explanation.

    I don’t think there’s any question that players on the population level don’t affect on ice SV%. Still, seeing Klefbom have a PDO worse than his team 7 out of 7 years of his career makes me question to an extent (to be fair his low PDO is as much about SH% as SV%; and also to be fair I’m not trying to run Klefbom out of town, I’m just questioning whether he’s full value for his xGF%).

    All that said I guess I remain less than 100% certain that “no individual player outside of the goalie can contribute to on ice save percentage”.

    I am a little slow at work today, so I played with excel.

    Over the past three seasons, for defensemen playing more than 900 minute total at 5v5 (arbitrary cutoff. I had started with 300 min per season initially), there was a weak negative correlation of -0.17 between toi/g at 5v5 at on ice save percentage. So there’s an effect there, but not demonstrably robust.

    It does support my idea that lower on ice SV% on the aggregate are driven by playing more against better players.

    Either that or the alternative hypothesis would be that coaches are dumb and they play their weaker players too much and should play their 3rd pairing dmen more for better results.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Morpheus (LT) : I’m trying to free your mind, Neo. But I can only show you the door. You’re the one that has to walk through it.

    After looking at the McDavid numbers I wish I had taken the blue pill.

    Awesome Draisaitl won both awards and deservedly… right now I’m enjoying a healthy serving of crow for breakfast as I recall thinking at the time 8.5M was an overpay.

    I’m remiss to start the conversation that we’ve had many times in particular given the fact that Drai is currently 100% value for his contract – not even Auston Matthews’ apologists can argue that.

    At the same time, while I think most were OK with the contract on signing on the premise that Drai would “grow in to the cap hit” as he improved and the cap rose, its was still at the very high end of the “acceptable range and there were legit comparables to cite to argue the contract could have started with an AAV of $7M.

    Of course, the 8 year term was a massive key.

    Love me some Drai!

  75. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    For the Oilers d last year, I ran the On ice SV% against the On the fly starts per 60. (min 300 min played at 5v5)

    The correlation coefficient was 0.89.

    3rd pairing on the Oilers dmen get sheltered with high on the fly starts/60. They also have high on ice sv% since they play more against grittensity.

    On teams that roll d pairs or match less, this effect would wash out.

    Over the past three years, the effect was lower at 0.44.

  76. SwedishPoster says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lavoie signs with Vasby in Sweden – HockeyAllsvenskan

    Great stuff – probably a better league for the rookie pro than the SHL.

    He should get considerable ice.

    Funny, when he got cut from Rögle I thought that Väsby might be an interesting landing spot. They’re newly promoted and is likely to be a bottom dweller but with an abundance of heart. They’re a bit if a cult team after they very surprisingly got promoted to the SEL in the 80s and since then are known as Wild Väsby.
    Anyway there should be plenty of ice time available for him but don’t be surprised if his numbers aren’t looking overly pretty. I think they have the smallest budget in the league by far.
    It’s an outer suburb to Stockholm so maybe I can catch a game or two. It’s a northern suburb, Evan Bouchard will play in Södertälje an outer suburb south of Stockholm, if they want to meet in the middle they can grab a coffee in central Stockholm, it’s a 30-45(closer for Lavoie) minute commute for each player.

  77. hunter1909 says:

    Reja: Nurse and Kass get a big fat F for being pussies in the Chicago series.

    LOL But they didn’t have time to “get into it”.

  78. hunter1909 says:

    who: I have no idea if Maroon would have “thumped ” Giordano, but I do know that Kassian is the better player. And it’s not even close really.

    On a good night Kassian is the finer player, but which of them has a team they’re currently playing for the Cup at the moment?

    Kassian also is inconsistent to a more > than Big Maroon. Maroon you can more of less count on, which can be a plus in ice hockey.

  79. hunter1909 says:

    Paulie: Would anyone entertain the argument that Leon has surpassed Connor by a small margin?

    No one in their right mind, but there will be someone for sure.

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    DFA/60 (Dangerous Fenwick Against/60) and DFF% of McDavid with various Dmen in both 19/20 and 16/17

    In 19/20 Klef, Larsson, Russell, Sekera were top 4. Nurse & Gryba were 3rd pair

    19/20
    DFF% – sorted by best to worst
    Larsson 56.5%
    Benning 55.9%
    Jones 54.4%
    Klefbom 49.8% (I’d imagine his time with Persson)
    Nurse 45.8%
    Bear 44.4%

    19/20
    DFA/60 – sorted best to worst
    Larsson 34.0
    Klefbom 48.7
    Jones 48.8
    Nurse 54.0
    Bear 54.8
    Russell 55.3
    Benning 64.1

    In 16/17 Klef, Larsson, Nurse and Bear were top 4. Russell, Benning and Jones were 3rd pair

    16/17
    .DFF% – best to worst
    Larsson 58.3%
    Sekera 57.7%
    Russell 56.8%
    Klefbom 56.1%
    Nurse 54.1%
    Gryba 50.8%

    16/17
    DFA/60 – best to worst
    Sekera 33.4
    Russell 36.7
    Nurse 43.5
    Larsson 43.8
    Klefbom 48.7
    Gryba 50.3

  81. SwedishPoster says:

    An interesting tidbit is that Väsby unlike other allsvenskan teams opted against short term loans but because Lavoie(and the Oilers) were willing to sign for the full season they decided to sign him so he won’t be able to join Bako mid-season.
    I think Holland knows with some certainty that there’ll be no AHL season.

    Bouchard has arrived in Sweden btw and had his first team practice yesterday, said it’s been a while since he had a real on ice session and that you could tell. Some funny comments, a local reporter noticed that “he’s 20 but looks 30 going on 40”, and one of the coaches noted that he had a great beard going.

  82. Bag of Pucks says:

    Paulie:
    I remember 2015 when Leon was called up and put on a line with Hall. Leon scored 26 points in his first 20 games (I believe) and I thought, hell, he can really play (with elite talent at least). It’s fair to say that the distance between him and Connor in terms of impacting the game is much smaller today than five years ago. My question is whether Leon has closed that gap entirely and is now one of the two best players in the game. Would anyone entertain the argument that Leon has surpassed Connor by a small margin?

    I’ve suggested this a few times not because Leon is the superior talent but because the tools in his game translate better towards involving everyone else on the ice, particularly his passing ability both forehand and backhand. The analogy i would use is Leon as point guard vs Connor as power forward.

    That said, the margin btw them is razor thin. Leon is the best backhand passer I’ve seen since Gretz. Connor is the best stickhandler at speed I’ve seen since Bure.

    The Oil have drafted 3 Hart winners in the last decade with squat to show for it on the team accomplishment side. That kind of ineptitude is unparalleled. Is there a trophy for that? The Hardy Aastrom Trophy?

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilpower:
    Was 16-17 the last time that klefbom and larson were both healthy and playing well? Therefore giving the Oilers a true top pairing? The team has been running the same d-men for 3 seasons and struggling at 5 on 5, yes we need an upgrade at the top not bottom of the roster. Otherwise we are hoping that broberg will eventually pass klef and that bouchard will pass larson, but who knows how long that will take!

    Yes and no.

    That was the season that Klef/Larsson played very well together but the Oilers really ran a 1A and a 1B to my recollection.

    That was the year and Andrej Sekera was at the top of his game – full value for his $5.5M and polishing Rusty as 2RD (Rusty was quite serviceable in role for the most part).

    The Nurse/Benning pair was a distant 3rd pairing.

    I don’t really agree with needing an upgrade at the top – Bear is part of that upgrade and is only 23 coming off his rookie season. Nurse and Klef are moving in to their prime years for d-man and we have the likes of Bear, Jones and Bouchard taking minutes and ie away from Larsson, Russell and Benning as time goes on – creating a more highly effective puck moving, mobile and skilled d-group.

    That isn’t even taking in to account the insertion of Broberg and maybe Sammy and maybe Berglund and maybe Kemp over time.

  84. pts2pndr says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: I don’t want to break up the DRY line either, but you can’t give Leon the two best wingers on the team and leave Connor to try to do it all himself.Nygard and Yammo are forecheck demons too, which would help that line sustain pressure if the initial rush by Connor gets stopped.

    I also think AA could be a sneaky threat to score on a third line, but he’s pretty expensive for that role.The experiments of him playing with 97 or 29 should be over though.He kind of reminds me of Hall in the way he likes to have the puck on his stick through the neutral zone and O-zone entries.Could work away from the top 2 centres and provide some bottom 6 offence that we’ve been looking for.I thought he looked pretty decent in that role against Chicago.

    So by what I see instead of having a first line you created two second lines.the Draisaitl line was a true number one line. Adding Yamamoto to McDavid’s line will result in the same result as moving Nuge to McDavid’s line. The answer is to find someone to fit for McDavids line. Nuge wasn’t the answer what makes you think that Yamamoto is the answer. Breaking up the Draisaitl line should be the last option. Benson has the requisite skills to fit quite nicely on the left wing with Connor and Zack. That line would have a balance of skills and size.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    TheGreatBigMac:
    I’d be up for getting Maroon back, anyone else?

    Not as the full time 1LW option.

    I mean, sure, spot duty there, however, as much as I love me some Hattrick Maroon, he’s now passed his prime and slowing down – he can be a piece on the team but I don’t think his current game is suited for that role any longer.

  86. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    DFA/60 (Dangerous Fenwick Against/60) and DFF% of McDavid with various Dmen in both 19/20 and 16/17

    In 19/20 Klef, Larsson, Russell, Sekera were top 4.Nurse & Gryba were 3rd pair

    19/20
    DFF% – sorted by best to worst
    Larsson 56.5%
    Benning 55.9%
    Jones 54.4%
    Klefbom 49.8% (I’d imagine his time with Persson)
    Nurse 45.8%
    Bear 44.4%

    19/20
    DFA/60 – sorted best to worst
    Larsson 34.0
    Klefbom 48.7
    Jones 48.8
    Nurse 54.0
    Bear 54.8
    Russell 55.3
    Benning 64.1

    In 16/17 Klef, Larsson, Nurse and Bear were top 4.Russell, Benning and Jones were 3rd pair

    16/17
    .DFF% – best to worst
    Larsson 58.3%
    Sekera 57.7%
    Russell 56.8%
    Klefbom 56.1%
    Nurse 54.1%
    Gryba 50.8%

    16/17
    DFA/60 – best to worst
    Sekera 33.4
    Russell 36.7
    Nurse 43.5
    Larsson 43.8
    Klefbom 48.7
    Gryba 50.3

    Oops, put the top 4 and bottom 3 on the wrong years, but you know what I’m getting at

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick:
    Congrats Leon! What a season! And fully deserved honours…Not bad for a “2C”.

    Now that Line 2 seems to be in great shape, it is a matter of getting Line 1 back to where it should be with McD. It would be great to have some time to experiment. Really. I think there was an over-reliance on going to Kass as 1RW, of course, due to limited alternatives…

    But looking ahead better options for W for McD should include:
    Haas
    Nygaard
    Benson
    JP

    those are players (sort of on the roster) with warts but with skill and 200 ft game.

    There are options off the roster as well…
    Ennis
    others…

    Down the road…Lavoie??

    For these reasons I think the Oilers need to draft a skilled complete C or W.

    Yes, the absolute key is the McDavid line being an out-scoring line, near the 60% mark. Being 50% in 2020 is just not acceptable – not blaming McDavid, just noting the situation.

    Of that list, I would add Nygard. Nope, he doesn’t have the defensive acumen or awareness of Haas but there is a history, a very short but successful history.

    McDavid and Nygard are 6-2 goals (along with positive possession) in 52 minutes (I believe, going by memory). 6-1 goals if Drai is subtracted.

    Of course, that sample size is too small to put much stock in but I believe it warrants Nygard’s inclusion in your list above.

    ——–

    I’m not sure about Haas on that list. I like Haas but I think I like Haas in the bottom (or middle) six. As of right now, I have this fantasy about him “popping” as a 3C – he’s got the skillset that I think could mesh with a “skilled third line” – whether that’s AA or Benson on the left side and JP or Kass on the right side, I don’t know. What I do know is that Haas is quick, he’s very good defensively, he causes turnovers and draws penalties (like a poor man’s Yamamoto). He was also a plus PK in Europe. Faceoffs, well, we can’t have everything.

    I think Haas showed some legit progression adapting to the NHL game over the season – his insertion as 3C in game 5 created a spark.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Elgin R:
    Caveat:McDavid was not 100% last season due to injury rehab.When he had 3-months to train (not just rehab) he was dominant in the ‘return-to-play’ putting up 9pts in 4 games.

    What worked for Leon?The formation of the DRY line gave him; two wingers with high-end hockey smarts with an excellent offensive / defensive forward in RNH and a tenacious forechecker (and back checker) in Yammy.So, great outcomes by having great players together!

    How does Holland / Tippet do the same for McDavid within the confines of little cap space, virtually no assets and a difficult trade market (is there ever an easy trade market?).
    Nygard – 97 – Tyler Johnson
    If Tampa wins the cup and Johnson waives his NTC, the Bolts will have to retain some salary to get rid of him and maybe, just maybe the Oilers can make it work.

    Retaining salary would very much be key – I am not in favor of acquiring long term $5M contracts for a 30 year old coming off a poor year. Retaining would/could change the dynamic though – although, still, it would be locking in to a player in his 30s for term. If we could exchange the Kassian contract for it….

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63:
    Driasaitl’s line is more established with 93 and 56 locked on those wings.

    I like the idea of running McDavid 2C and running Kassian and Benson on the wings.

    Benson’s board play is really improved, his passing will get McDavid the puck to transport, it is a unique “one man” show.

    Once the puck is in the offensive zone it is about, positioning, board battle, possession and quickness vs. speed.Benson does all this really well.

    I’ve been on the “Benson has the skill-set that could mesh with McDavid” train for a while now.

    Its tough to project Benson as McDavid’s winger as he hasn’t even proven to be a legit every day NHL player let along a guy that can play 18 5 on 5 minutes against tough comp, however, skill-set wise, I think he could work.

    Probably needs to some more time to get used to the speed of the NHL game but he’s smart, it won’t take him long (we already saw progression as between his two cups of coffee last season).

    He is no shrinking violet and actually sneaky dirty on the boards but, more than anything, he thinks the game at a certain level and has the skill, awareness, ability to know how to get the puck to McDavid with time and space and how to put the puck in the “right places” at the “right time”.

    At least I think he does – that’s his game.

  90. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OriginalPouzar: What I do know is that Haas is quick, he’s very good defensively, he causes turnovers and draws penalties (like a poor man’s Yamamoto).

    Yes, I agree a bit of a stretch to think of Haas in the 1RW position, like I was proposing as an “internal option to explore” – and agree if he could handle 3C that would be ideal, but the rationale that you wrote (and I have quoted) is what inspired me to “throw the idea out there”…of course, we can hope there will be better options materialize…

  91. SwedishPoster says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    DFA/60 (Dangerous Fenwick Against/60) and DFF% of McDavid with various Dmen in both 19/20 and 16/17

    In 19/20 Klef, Larsson, Russell, Sekera were top 4.Nurse & Gryba were 3rd pair

    19/20
    DFF% – sorted by best to worst
    Larsson 56.5%
    Benning 55.9%
    Jones 54.4%
    Klefbom 49.8% (I’d imagine his time with Persson)
    Nurse 45.8%
    Bear 44.4%

    19/20
    DFA/60 – sorted best to worst
    Larsson 34.0
    Klefbom 48.7
    Jones 48.8
    Nurse 54.0
    Bear 54.8
    Russell 55.3
    Benning 64.1

    In 16/17 Klef, Larsson, Nurse and Bear were top 4.Russell, Benning and Jones were 3rd pair

    16/17
    .DFF% – best to worst
    Larsson 58.3%
    Sekera 57.7%
    Russell 56.8%
    Klefbom 56.1%
    Nurse 54.1%
    Gryba 50.8%

    16/17
    DFA/60 – best to worst
    Sekera 33.4
    Russell 36.7
    Nurse 43.5
    Larsson 43.8
    Klefbom 48.7
    Gryba 50.3

    Isn’t that DFA number for Larsson kind of beastly for a guy playing with a high event guy like McDavid(and usually against the top guys of the other team)?

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Of note, October 2, the opening of the AIK season – Sodertalje vs. Vasby – Bouch vs. Lavoie!!!!!

    Is it weird to look forward to streaming a Swedish Tier 2 league game?

  93. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Oops, put the top 4 and bottom 3 on the wrong years, but you know what I’m getting at

    Know what you’re getting at… hmm. I’ll take a few guesses.

    More Jones, less Russell

    Move Russell.

    Find a 2016-17 Sekera or better. ?OEL.

    Hope that Bear gets better defensively

    Sell high on Nurse?

  94. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    DFA/60 (Dangerous Fenwick Against/60) and DFF% of McDavid with various Dmen in both 19/20 and 16/17

    In 19/20 Klef, Larsson, Russell, Sekera were top 4.Nurse & Gryba were 3rd pair

    19/20
    DFF% – sorted by best to worst
    Larsson 56.5%
    Benning 55.9%
    Jones 54.4%
    Klefbom 49.8% (I’d imagine his time with Persson)
    Nurse 45.8%
    Bear 44.4%

    19/20
    DFA/60 – sorted best to worst
    Larsson 34.0
    Klefbom 48.7
    Jones 48.8
    Nurse 54.0
    Bear 54.8
    Russell 55.3
    Benning 64.1

    In 16/17 Klef, Larsson, Nurse and Bear were top 4.Russell, Benning and Jones were 3rd pair

    16/17
    .DFF% – best to worst
    Larsson 58.3%
    Sekera 57.7%
    Russell 56.8%
    Klefbom 56.1%
    Nurse 54.1%
    Gryba 50.8%

    16/17
    DFA/60 – best to worst
    Sekera 33.4
    Russell 36.7
    Nurse 43.5
    Larsson 43.8
    Klefbom 48.7
    Gryba 50.3

    Would this suggest keeping Larsson around is not necessarily a bad idea??

  95. SwedishPoster says:

    In other (sort of) Oilers in Sweden news, AHL signing James Hamblin has signed with swedish third tier club Östersund. (along with Dale Hawerchuk’s son, big adventure to take on so soon after losing his father but hopefully it ends up being an opportunity to not just play hockey but also heal)

  96. jimdewger says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Sounds like a day to book off from work!

  97. Eh Team says:

    OriginalPouzar: Nurse and Klef are moving in to their prime years for d-man

    Nurse is 25 and Klef is 27. They aren’t moving into their prime years. On average NHL players peak at 25 and then very gently decline until they hit 30, then they can drop off dramatically.

    Elite players like McDavid pretty much come fully formed. They can improve but they are already at such a high level. McDavid this year was pretty incredible given how severe his injury was. And now he will have two extended periods of rest to recover fully.

    McDavid would really e helped by a better supporting cast. That would zoom his numbers, but talent wise he’s close to maxed out already.

  98. Elgin R says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’ve been on the “Benson has the skill-set that could mesh with McDavid” train for a while now.

    Its tough to project Benson as McDavid’s winger as he hasn’t even proven to be a legit every day NHL player let along a guy that can play 18 5 on 5 minutes against tough comp, however, skill-set wise, I think he could work.

    Probably needs to some more time to get used to the speed of the NHL game but he’s smart, it won’t take him long (we already saw progression as between his two cups of coffee last season).

    He is no shrinking violet and actually sneaky dirty on the boards but, more than anything, he thinks the game at a certain level and has the skill, awareness, ability to know how to get the puck to McDavid with time and space and how to put the puck in the “right places” at the “right time”.

    At least I think he does – that’s his game.

    Benson’s pass to Archie on the goal against the Hurricanes showed good touch and smarts. It would solve a big problem if Benson could become McDavid’s Conor Sheary. I watched him a few times when he played for the SSAC (was there watching with a freind whose son was playing) and he was superb. Watched some of the Condor’s games from 2-years ago on the terrible internet feed and he was always setting up Marody. Kid could be the answer.

  99. Brantford Boy says:

    dustrock,
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Sorry DustRock got me started on this…

    Is it possible to see the entire team (I suppose averaged) against the Elites, Mids, and Grits showing GF and GA? Would this not show us where a large hole(s) is in the team (i.e. 3C) or is this just a crazy thought?

    I’m also thinking McDavid may not show up well against the Grits as he’s more than likely being double shifted with even worse wingers than he’s playing with now.

  100. Ryan says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Would this suggest keeping Larsson around is not necessarily a bad idea??

    The data suggests that for sure, but then you have to factor in slow boots, wonky back, age, and price.

    I have no idea what Larsson will be looking for in terms of dollars or term. There certainly could be a deal to be had there.

    – – –

    DFA is fun. The Oilers will on occasion have a player in the 30’s.

    Some teams like Boston have nearly their entire d corps in that range.

    Even fast and loose teams like Colorado have multiple players in the 30’s.

    Having 4 starting defensemen in the 50’s for DFA is pretty gruesome indictment of the entire team.

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    SwedishPoster: Isn’t that DFA number for Larsson kind of beastly for a guy playing with a high event guy like McDavid(and usually against the top guys of the other team)?

    Yes.

    I triple checked.

    Blew me away.

    Klef’s DFA/60 with Larsson vs Elites 41.8
    Klef’s DFA/60 without Larsson vs Elites 56.1

    Larsson’s DFA/60 without Klefbom vs Elites 40.7

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    dustrock,
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Sorry DustRock got me started on this…

    Is it possible to see the entire team (I suppose averaged) against the Elites, Mids, and Grits showing GF and GA?Would this not show us where a large hole(s) is in the team (i.e. 3C) or is this just a crazy thought?

    I’m also thinking McDavid may not show up well against the Grits as he’s more than likely being double shifted with even worse wingers than he’s playing with now.

    We can’t do “team wide results” as every event is counted and every player on the ice gets assinged that event.

    Not possible to create a team metric from that. GMoney could explain it better. Its due to how we create the database.

    The way way to ballpark one is to look at the Rels

    Ie) McDavid’s DFF% vs Elites is 47.8% and his DFFRC (relative to competition) is 4.1

    So EDM’s DFF vs Elites is 47.8% when McDavid is on the ice and averages 43.7% when he’s not on the ice.

    McDavid’s rels ARE ONLY CALCULATED FOR GAMES IN WHICH HE PLAYED so they are “true” on/off and not just when he’s not playing at all.

  103. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Would this suggest keeping Larsson around is not necessarily a bad idea??

    Yes

  104. leadfarmer says:

    Eh Team: Nurse is 25 and Klef is 27.They aren’t moving into their prime years. On average NHL playerspeak at 25 and then very gently decline until they hit 30, then they can drop off dramatically.

    Elite players like McDavid pretty much come fully formed.They can improve but they are already at such a high level.McDavid this year was pretty incredible given how severe his injury was.And now he will have two extended periods of rest to recover fully.

    McDavid would really e helped by a better supporting cast.That would zoom his numbers, but talent wise he’s close to maxed out already.

    Forwards tend to peak earlier than D
    27-33 was once considered peak for defensemen
    The new modern defensemen have changed that

  105. leadfarmer says:

    The problem with Oilers D isn’t any defenseman in particular. Just too many single tool D that are very similar to each other.

  106. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Ryan: The data suggests that for sure, but then you have to factor in slow boots, wonky back, age, and price.

    I have no idea what Larsson will be looking for in terms of dollars or term. There certainly could be a deal to be had there.

    – – –

    DFA is fun. The Oilers will on occasion have a player in the 30’s.

    Some teams like Boston have nearly their entire d corps in that range.

    Even fast and loose teams like Colorado have multiple players in the 30’s.

    Having 4 starting defensemen in the 50’s for DFA is pretty gruesome indictment of the entire team.

    Yes. The team seems to have given up a lot of high quality chances against this year despite having a relatively good season in terms of overall points. It is probably also worth noting these data when we consider goaltending performance as well…?

  107. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yes.

    I triple checked.

    Blew me away.

    Klef’s DFA/60 with Larsson vs Elites 41.8
    Klef’s DFA/60 without Larsson vs Elites56.1

    Larsson’s DFA/60 without Klefbom vs Elites 40.7

    holy shit

  108. dustrock says:

    As much as the OEL trade possibility has many ways it can go wrong, I seem to recall OEL-Larsson killing it at two consecutive Worlds.

  109. who says:

    hunter1909: On a good night Kassian is the finer player, but which of them has a team they’re currently playing for the Cup at the moment?

    Kassian also is inconsistent to a more > than Big Maroon. Maroon you can more of less count on, which can be a plus in ice hockey.

    Maroons team is currently playing for the cup. But I hope you’re not saying that Tampa is in the finals because of Maroon.
    Cause that’s kinda like saying Chiasson is the reason the Oilers were a playoff team.

  110. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    The problem with Oilers D isn’t any defenseman in particular.Just too many single tool D that are very similar to each other.

    We have a little bit of a weird mix indeed. We’re light on both puck moving and boxing out ability at the same time.

    Some teams effectively deploy the small fast puck mover with the hair on his ass big defender pairings.

    Graves and Makar
    Girard with Zadarov or Eric Johnson.
    Sergachev with Cernak.

    The problems on our roster…

    Russell and Benning both don’t box out well or make good outlet passes. They’re both also small and not particularly fast.

    Klefbom is miscast as a #1.

    Nurse doesn’t make great outlets and he doesn’t box out players as well as you’d expect for his size and strength especially without taking penalties.

  111. Reja says:

    who: Maroons team is currently playing for the cup. But I hope you’re not saying that Tampa is in the finals because of Maroon.
    Cause that’s kinda like saying Chiasson is the reason the Oilers were a playoff team.

    Maroon was the reason they score in OT in game 2 against Boston with I believe game 3 the next night. If Beantown scores in OT to win game 2 they would have had a fragile Tampa team on the ropes and I would have bet any poster $10 Gees Boston takes the series excluding island boy who would have talked his way out of it. Same goes for the OT winner by Maroon the previous year against Dallas in game 7. Maroon gets zero love for some reason except here in Edmonton but apparently is asking price was to much and other personal reasons.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eh Team: Nurse is 25 and Klef is 27.They aren’t moving into their prime years. On average NHL playerspeak at 25 and then very gently decline until they hit 30, then they can drop off dramatically.

    Sorry, with respect, I don’t agree with this.

    I think that the prime years for d-men (generally) is later for forwards and is really in the 26/31 years (give or take). Shit, Josi just had his best season, winning the Norris at 30.

    I think the best year’s for both d-man are ahead.

  113. Eh Team says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sorry, with respect, I don’t agree with this.

    I think that the prime years for d-men (generally) is later for forwards and is really in the 26/31 years (give or take). Shit, Josi just had his best season, winning the Norris at 30.

    I think the best year’s for both d-man are ahead.

    I know you don’t agree, but that’s what the research shows.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/?s=aging+curves

  114. Harpers Hair says:

    Eh Team: I know you don’t agree, but that’s what the research shows.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/?s=aging+curves

    And that’s a trend that will accelerate as the league becomes faster and younger.

  115. Harpers Hair says:

    Has a once in a lifetime experience yesterday that I thought I would share with the group.

    I was driving south on the Inland Island Highway about 10 miles north of Qualicum Beach.

    All traffic was moving at about 120 KM/H.

    Out of the corner of my eye I saw a huge cat (cougar) running across the northbound lanes that was narrowly missed by a car.

    It then leaped over the concrete block centre median of the southbound lanes again, narrowly being missed by another vehicle but upon landing on the shoulder, it lost its footing on the wet shoulder and tumbled into the concrete blocks on the shoulder.

    In an amazing display of agility, in less than a second, it regained its footing and leaped back onto the centre media blocks and then leaped again over the northbound lanes.

    The most amazing thing is it leaped OVER an oncoming truck that surely would have killed it and likely the occupants of the truck.

    Most astounding thing I’ve ever seen.

  116. Eh Team says:

    Harpers Hair: Eh Team: I know you don’t agree, but that’s what the research shows.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/?s=aging+curves

    And that’s a trend that will accelerate as the league becomes faster and younger.

    And the flat cap for the forseeable future will also drive this. When contracts expire, you won’t see a player like Russell/Chiasson get term and $. You will see Lagesson/Benson play at $750,000/year rather than Russell/Chiasson at $2-3 million.

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: We have a little bit of a weird mix indeed. We’re light on both puck moving and boxing out ability at the same time.

    Some teams effectively deploy the small fast puck mover with the hair on his ass big defender pairings.

    Graves and Makar
    Girard with Zadarov or Eric Johnson.
    Sergachev with Cernak.

    The problems on our roster…

    Russell and Benning both don’t box out well or make good outlet passes. They’re both also small and not particularly fast.

    Klefbom is miscast as a #1.

    Nurse doesn’t make great outlets and he doesn’t box out players as well as you’d expect for his size and strength especially without taking penalties.

    I agree with this.

  118. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Has a once in a lifetime experience yesterday that I thought I would share with the group.

    I was driving south on the Inland Island Highway about 10 miles north of Qualicum Beach.

    All traffic was moving at about 120 KM/H.

    Out of the corner of my eye I saw a huge cat (cougar) running across the northbound lanes that was narrowly missed by a car.

    It then leaped over the concrete block centre median of the southbound lanes again, narrowly being missed by another vehicle but upon landing on the shoulder, it lost its footing on the wet shoulder and tumbled into the concrete blocks on the shoulder.

    In an amazing display of agility, in less than a second, it regained its footing and leaped back onto the centre media blocks and then leaped again over the northbound lanes.

    The most amazing thing is it leaped OVER an oncoming truck that surely would have killed it and likely the occupants of the truck.

    Most astounding thing I’ve ever seen.

    That’s awesome.

    Was it a big cat?

    Those things are all muscle.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Or, you could limit the time McDavid plays with Nurse and acquire a goaltender that is league average instead of Mike Smith.

    Limit time on ice with Nurse to improve McDavid’s goal share?

    Last 3 seasons aggregate, McDavid’s GF%:

    With Nurse: 55.68%
    Without Nurse: 51.09%

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20172018&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8478402

    Narrative?

  120. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Is there a trophy for that? The Hardy Aastrom Trophy?

    The Ivan Boldirev Trophy.

  121. Primetime says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Would this suggest keeping Larsson around is not necessarily a bad idea??

    Also, does it suggest that trading Klefbom now, while not injured again, and still on a very desirable contract, might net a top forward to grow with the forward group? And Larson can anchor a pairing whether with OEL or young Caleb Jones and the team would be better off? If Klef is miscast as a #1, then Jones shouldn’t have to play #1 minutes either….

  122. Brantford Boy says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thank you good sir, understood… much appreciated

  123. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Ryan: We have a little bit of a weird mix indeed. We’re light on both puck moving and boxing out ability at the same time.

    Some teams effectively deploy the small fast puck mover with the hair on his ass big defender pairings.

    Graves and Makar
    Girard with Zadarov or Eric Johnson.
    Sergachev with Cernak.

    The problems on our roster…

    Russell and Benning both don’t box out well or make good outlet passes. They’re both also small and not particularly fast.

    Klefbom is miscast as a #1.

    Nurse doesn’t make great outlets and he doesn’t box out players as well as you’d expect for his size and strength especially without taking penalties.

    That is IT in a nutshell…well summarized.
    My hope is that we can establish the D pairings that allow each D to complement one another…

    As well as Bear-Nurse did last year (all things considered, but clearly much need for improvement), I don’t think they are an ideal pair…

    Larsson with Jones could be nice…
    Bear and Bro had instant chemistry…
    Bouch would probably do well with a Lagesson type…

    Nurse would probably do well with a Kemp type…

    If Nurse could commit to home plate in his own end he could probably complement any of the emerging RD in the system…

    Hope springs eternal….

  124. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yes.

    I triple checked.

    Blew me away.

    Klef’s DFA/60 with Larsson vs Elites 41.8
    Klef’s DFA/60 without Larsson vs Elites56.1

    Larsson’s DFA/60 without Klefbom vs Elites 40.7

    Wowza. You can see why Holland drafted Broberg.

    I would be on board with trading Klefbom at peak value for an elite winger or high-quality 3C.

    Klef looks good by eye and his numbers are inflated due to his pp time. Another GM might think they’re getting a minute-eating #2/3 when maybe Klef is a 4/5.

  125. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s awesome.

    Was it a big cat?

    Those things are all muscle.

    Huge.

    I would estimate the distance from the shoulder to the centre median was 35 to 40 feet which it cleared in one jump and then in a heartbeat it repeated the jump over the truck that was approaching at high speed.

    Hard to estimate the size of the cat since I was also moving at high speed but I’d guess from nose to tip of the tail at over 15 feet.

    The odd thing is, not more than a quarter mile away on the side of the road the cat ended up on, there was a guy walking on the shoulder with his dog in the direction of the cougar.

    Hope he made it.

  126. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Harpers Hair: Hope he made it.

    The cat or the dude?

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR:
    I’d like to see Nygard get another try with 97.He was good every time I saw him last year.I think he’ll be even better with a year under his belt.but you’d have to go better than Kass on RW in this scenario.

    Nygard – McDavid – Yamamoto
    Nuge – Leon – Archie
    Athaniseau – Haas – Kassian
    Neal – Khaira – Chaisson

    These are all the pieces we currently have to the puzzle.

    PS : I can’t wait to see how the Athaniseau situation plays out.

    I agree about Nygard – my eyes don’t recall “seeing him good” with McDavid but the very small sample size of success warrants another look given current roster construction.

    I won’t speak to moving Kailer off Leon’s line nor including Archie in the top 6 – neither of those seem prudent to me.

    I am on board with AA back driving zone time on the 3rd line (to start) – Benson may be there instead given cost.

  128. Harpers Hair says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: The cat or the dude?

    And the dog.

  129. Harpers Hair says:

    Some radio chatter today.

    It appears that Jacob Markstrom will be headed to free agency.

    There have been no contracts talks with Tanev at all. Apparently Pittsburgh has interest.

    The Chicago Steel of the USHL are experimenting with “no position” hockey where all 5 skaters on the ice will be rovers.

    I hope this doesn’t give Ricki a heart attack.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Elgin R: 3rd Line:Could work.All are fast and AA can transport, Kassian can forecheck and Hass can be the defensive player (and of course draw penalties).

    2nd Line:NO.Do not break up the DRY line.

    4th Line:Trade Chiasson and play Archie as 4RW

    1st Line:Yes to Nygard – 97.Now what about RW?JP or an acquisition.

    The team looks good without any major shakeups.Just need to trade KRusty and Chiasson.

    A key is Chiasson moved (I suspect MTL would give a mid round pick and take him clean – just speculating but it makes some sense) and replaced on the 23 by Puljujarvi.

    I agree, keep Archie at 4RW and Kassian/Puljujarvi can be the 1RW/3RW. Can’t pencil Jesse in there but, to the extent he could earn that spot on merit (complimentary player), having Kass at 3RW would be a boon.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Eh Team: This lineup has 6 4th line forwards-Nygaard, Archibald, Hass, Neal, Khaira and Chiasson.

    and two first line centers……

  132. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: and two first line centers……

    Yeah.

    That has worked out well.

  133. leadfarmer says:

    These free agents are not giving their home teams flat cap discounts

  134. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    leadfarmer:
    These free agents are not giving their home teams flat cap discounts

    Have there been some recent signings?

  135. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Huge.

    I would estimate the distance from the shoulder to the centre median was 35 to 40 feet which it cleared in one jump and then in a heartbeat it repeated the jump over the truck that was approaching at high speed.

    Hard to estimate the size of the cat since I was also moving at high speed but I’d guess from nose to tip of the tail at over 15 feet.

    The odd thing is, not more than a quarter mile away on the side of the road the cat ended up on, there was a guy walking on the shoulder with his dog in the direction of the cougar.

    Hope he made it.

    When a experience like this happens makes you realize there’s something greater out yonder.

  136. Paulie says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Yeah, it’s called the Chairelli Cup

  137. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja: When a experience like this happens makes you realize there’s something greater out yonder.

    Yep.

    Exactly what I thought after seeing it.

  138. leadfarmer says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Have there been some recent signings?

    Hear talks breaking down left and right

  139. Harpers Hair says:

    Just listened to an interview with goalie expert Kevin Woodley.
    He thinks Markstrom will end up in Calgary or Detroit.

    He believes a good fit in Vancouver would be Marc Andre Fleury if VGK retains salary.
    This would allow the Canucks to expose him in the expansion draft.

    He also says Arizona already has an offer of a first round pick for Darcy Kuemper but is holding out for more.

  140. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: A key is Chiasson moved (I suspect MTL would give a mid round pick and take him clean – just speculating but it makes some sense) and replaced on the 23 by Puljujarvi.

    I agree, keep Archie at 4RW and Kassian/Puljujarvi can be the 1RW/3RW.Can’t pencil Jesse in there but, to the extent he could earn that spot on merit (complimentary player), having Kass at 3RW would be a boon.

    Why exactly would Montreal want him?

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR: I don’t want to break up the DRY line either, but you can’t give Leon the two best wingers on the team and leave Connor to try to do it all himself.Nygard and Yammo are forecheck demons too, which would help that line sustain pressure if the initial rush by Connor gets stopped.

    I also think AA could be a sneaky threat to score on a third line, but he’s pretty expensive for that role.The experiments of him playing with 97 or 29 should be over though.He kind of reminds me of Hall in the way he likes to have the puck on his stick through the neutral zone and O-zone entries.Could work away from the top 2 centres and provide some bottom 6 offence that we’ve been looking for.I thought he looked pretty decent in that role against Chicago.

    I agree that Connor can’t “do it on his own” but, at the same time, given he has a $12.5M cap hit, the onus is partially on him to “do more with a bit less” – other generationals have done it and its led to championships.

    Yes, one “legit” top 6 winger to play with is needed – he doesn’t have that currently – perhaps Benson or Puljujarvi can be that winger – they both have the pedigree.

    Simply can’t take Leon away from Drai (or vice versa) at this point, in my opinion.

    While I think AA may be best suited to a middle 6/3rd line “driving” role, where he has played his best hockey as an Oiler, I can’ say with any sort of certainty that any experiment with him should be over.

    He certainly didn’t look to have any sort of chemistry on the top 6, however, 13 games, split by 5 months with the first 8 coming after playing on a generationally bad team and then injured and the last 5 in some fairly unusual circumstances.

    1.8 P/60 or more for 4 straight years with, mostly, middle six linemates – one terrible year at 25 years old doesn’t discount the history.

  142. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Has a once in a lifetime experience yesterday that I thought I would share with the group.

    I was driving south on the Inland Island Highway about 10 miles north of Qualicum Beach.

    All traffic was moving at about 120 KM/H.

    Out of the corner of my eye I saw a huge cat (cougar) running across the northbound lanes that was narrowly missed by a car.

    It then leaped over the concrete block centre median of the southbound lanes again, narrowly being missed by another vehicle but upon landing on the shoulder, it lost its footing on the wet shoulder and tumbled into the concrete blocks on the shoulder.

    In an amazing display of agility, in less than a second, it regained its footing and leaped back onto the centre media blocks and then leaped again over the northbound lanes.

    The most amazing thing is it leaped OVER an oncoming truck that surely would have killed it and likely the occupants of the truck.

    Most astounding thing I’ve ever seen.

    Incredible! That’s power. Did you have an adrenaline rush? 🙂

  143. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide: Incredible! That’s power. Did you have an adrenaline rush?

    Oh yeah.

    The visual will be imprinted forever.

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    Elgin R: Benson’s pass to Archie on the goal against the Hurricanes showed good touch and smarts.It would solve a big problem if Benson could become McDavid’s Conor Sheary.I watched him a few times when he played for the SSAC (was there watching with a freind whose son was playing) and he was superb.Watched some of the Condor’s games from 2-years ago on the terrible internet feed and he was always setting up Marody.Kid could be the answer.

    It would sure solve alot of problems, wouldn’t it?

    Its a tough ask for a rookie though, to play that many 5 on 5 minutes against tough comp – even if McDavid changes the dynamic of what that looks like.

    The skill-set is there though – the best “skill-set fit” of any potential option in the org (Lavoie isn’t an NHL option yet).

    Of course, skill-set doesn’t always translate to the NHL – certainly worth a try though, in my opinion.

  145. leadfarmer says:

    Van downgrading from Markstrom to Fleury would be nice
    I hope if Markstrom goes to Calgary they at least have the decency to significantly overpay him

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brantford Boy:
    dustrock,
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m also thinking McDavid may not show up well against the Grits as he’s more than likely being double shifted with even worse wingers than he’s playing with now.

    In my opinion, our coaches need to put a little more focus on getting McDavid (regular linemates) out against the Grits – should be very easy at home.

    To me, it seems the staff seem overly comfortable with matching power vs. power and rarely work to get McDavid easy matchups, or at least away from the toughest matchups.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: The data suggests that for sure, but then you have to factor in slow boots, wonky back, age, and price.

    I have no idea what Larsson will be looking for in terms of dollars or term. There certainly could be a deal to be had there.

    – – –

    Do slow boots matter if the player plays well and helps the team?

    As far as re-signing Larsson, and I’m not against in at a high level, the premise would have to be a 3RD and top 6 fill-in, no?

    It may not happen right away but I think we all forsee Bear/Bouchard as the top 2RD going forward. Bear is already a legit top 4 RD (subject to big time regression) and, although I don’t know how long it will take, I’m confidant Bouch will get there.

    Many question Benning at 3RD at $2M and, while a better player, Larsson will be more expensive, even with a material pay cut.

    There is one important piece of information that we don’t have – Berglund’s ability to step in to 3RD in the near future – here is hoping he comes on over after Linkoping’s season is done and provides us some info.

  148. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    Van downgrading from Markstrom to Fleury would be nice
    I hope if Markstrom goes to Calgary they at least have the decency to significantly overpay him

    It’s not that simple.

    With Demko seeming ready to be a #1 having a veteran on an affordable contract, allows the Canucks to upgrade their D.

    If Tanev also walks, it frees up about $10 million in cap space to acquire a top 4 D.

  149. who says:

    Reja: Maroon was the reason they score in OT in game 2 against Boston with I believe game 3 the next night. If Beantown scores in OT to win game 2 they would have had a fragile Tampa team on the ropes and I would have bet any poster $10 Gees Boston takes the series excluding island boy who would have talked his wayout of it. Same goes for the OT winner by Maroonthe previous year against Dallas in game 7. Maroon gets zero love for some reason except here in Edmonton but apparently is asking price was to much and other personal reasons.

    So anyone who scores an overtime goal, or sets a screen for one, is a keeper? According to this logic we should have kept David Deharnais.
    There’s a lot of obscure players who have scored in overtime in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Single events are single events. It would be wiser to use a players entire body of work.
    Near as I can tell Maroon is a 4th liner who plays on PP2 in Tampa. He is Tampas version of Neal and Chiasson. Do we really need more of those?

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    As much as the OEL trade possibility has many ways it can go wrong, I seem to recall OEL-Larsson killing it at two consecutive Worlds.

    Yes, they did play great together at the Worlds.

    I’m not once of those guys that doesn’t like the World, I look forward to it and watch and cheer every year but, at the same time, I put about as much stock in to it vis-a-vis NHL translation as I do the exhibition season – the wide range of competition and the tournament style, etc. make it a very poor NHL analysis consideration.

  151. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: It’s not that simple.

    With Demko seeming ready to be a #1 having a veteran on an affordable contract, allows the Canucks to upgrade their D.

    If Tanev also walks, it frees up about $10 million in cap space to acquire a top 4 D.

    Van going all in on small sample sizes on a goalie with significant concussion history without Tanev is even better

  152. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Van going all in on small sample sizes on a goalie with significant concussion history without Tanev is even better

    Going all in with two above average goaltenders and Aaron Ekblad is even better.

  153. Eh Team says:

    Harpers Hair: With Demko seeming ready to be a #1 having a veteran on an affordable contract, allows the Canucks to upgrade their D.

    If Tanev also walks, it frees up about $10 million in cap space to acquire a top 4 D.

    I think you want Tanev to walk at this point in his career. Benning will spend the $ on someone he thinks is a top 4 D, but will get another guy like Myers who isn’t (but will be paid like one).

    And Demko isn’t a sure thing either, though I think you want to roll the dice on him rather than pay Markstrom who will be very costly.

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, .905/3.06 and 37 games of experience screams ready for #1.

    Nothing like over-valuing small sample sizes.

  155. Brantford Boy says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Ugh, that’s in my neck of the woods… luckily he’d have to swim a couple miles to get to my island.

    A friends saw something almost exactly the same entering the start of the Malahat.

  156. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Going all in with two above average goaltenders and Aaron Ekblad is even better.

    You spelled Mike Matheson wrong

  157. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yes, .905/3.06 and 37 games of experience screams ready for #1.

    Nothing like over-valuing small sample sizes.

    Demko with a save percentage of .914 at a cap hit of $1,050 million is a much better bet than Koskinen with a save percentage of .909 at a cap hit of $4.5 million.

    Adding a goaltender with a .913 save percentage at $3.5 million to cover the bet gives the Canucks two goaltenders at the price of one Koskinen.

    And, of course, the Oilers don’t even have a credible backup.

    Huge advantage Canucks.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    MAF is above average?

  159. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:
  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    Imagine, using a 36 year old regressing goalie’s career save percentage as an indication of their future performance – on an inferior team with an inferior defence.

    Probably as good an idea as using a four-game sample size to prove a prospect goalie coming off a middling season is ready to be a starter.

  161. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Imagine, using a 36 year old regressing goalie’s career save percentage as an indication of their future performance – on an inferior team with an inferior defence.

    Probably as good an idea as using a four-game sample size to prove a prospect goalie coming off a middling season is ready to be a starter.

    Imagine paying a below average goaltender $4.5 million a year without a back up plan

  162. Material Elvis says:

    Why would Montreal want Chiasson? In no particular order:

    1. He has size and their forward group is too small.
    2. His even strength possession numbers are pretty solid.
    3. He is a decent power play producer and their power play sucks.
    4. Il vient du Quebec (and that is important in the francophone community.

  163. Material Elvis says:

    What was the average save percentage for NHL goalies this year?

    What was Koskinen’s save percentage?

    When is above average actually below average?

  164. Material Elvis says:

    Is anyone else being redirected from LT’s site to a spam survey website?

  165. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Imagine paying a below average goaltender $4.5 million a year without a back up plan

    You are such a troll
    A week ago you were saying you liked Koskinen as he looked really good by metrics you were judging other G on
    Today you hate him
    Figures

  166. Harpers Hair says:

    Material Elvis:
    What was the average save percentage for NHL goalies this year?

    What was Koskinen’s save percentage?

    When is above average actually below average?

    The money goalies:

    https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/2019-20-nhl-goalies-playoff-stats.html

  167. Material Elvis says:

    My quote button also isn’t working…..

    Responding to HH: that playoff sample size is too small to mean anything. Pretty sure I could find a five game segment for every goalie in the NHL where he went sub.900% at sone point during the regular season.

  168. who says:

    Material Elvis:
    Why would Montreal want Chiasson?In no particular order:

    1.He has size and their forward group is too small.
    2.His even strength possession numbers are pretty solid.
    3.He is a decent power play producer and their power play sucks.
    4.Il vient du Quebec (and that is important in the francophone community.

    Do you think all those reasons are worth 2.1 million? Or a mid round pick?
    I think Chiasson, at his current salary, is negative value. Not sure any team wants that.

  169. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Imagine paying a below average goaltender $4.5 million a year without a back up plan

    Of course (a) the position that Mikko was below average this year is wrong (even moreso if one looks at GSAA) and (b) noone is trying to justify not improving in the area for next season (let along justifying a massive downgrade)

  170. Harpers Hair says:

    Material Elvis:
    My quote button also isn’t working…..

    Responding to HH:that playoff sample size is too small to mean anything.Pretty sure I could find a five game segment for every goalie in the NHL where he went sub.900% at sone point during the regular season.

    Go for it.

    While you’re at it, find a 5 game segment where Koskinen was lights out.

  171. Reja says:

    who: So anyone who scores an overtime goal,or sets a screen for one, is a keeper? According to this logic we should have kept David Deharnais.
    There’s a lot of obscure players who have scored in overtime in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Single events are single events. It would be wiser to use a players entire body of work.
    Near as I can tell Maroon is a 4th liner who plays on PP2 in Tampa. He is Tampas version of Neal and Chiasson. Do we really need more of those?

    I guess pisani just another nobody in these parts. The Maroon ship has sailed what lm getting at is if Kassian doesn’t open up ice and protect his meal ticket I would bury his ass in the minors and find a replacement that doesn’t need cue cards when it’s time to get nasty.

  172. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: We can’t do “team wide results” as every event is counted and every player on the ice gets assinged that event.

    Not possible to create a team metric from that.GMoney could explain it better.Its due to how we create the database.

    The way way to ballpark one is to look at the Rels

    Ie)McDavid’s DFF% vs Elites is 47.8% and his DFFRC (relative to competition) is 4.1

    So EDM’s DFF vs Elites is 47.8% when McDavid is on the ice and averages 43.7% when he’s not on the ice.

    McDavid’s rels ARE ONLY CALCULATED FOR GAMES IN WHICH HE PLAYED so they are “true” on/off and not just when he’s not playing at all.

    Can’t you just sum up all the DFF and DFA events for all the players on each team, divide by 5 (it’s all 5v5 data), and then divide by total team minutes?

    (Presumably it isn’t actually that simple!)

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    .956/1.79

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=EDM&pos=G&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=gpdate&fd=2020-02-25&td=2020-03-10&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

    Imagine professing that a .917/2.75 is below average and a .905/3.06 is proven to be ready to start and actually trying to be taken seriously……

  174. who says:

    Reja: I guess pisani just another nobody in these parts. The Maroon ship has sailed what lm getting at is if Kassian doesn’t open up ice and protecthis meal ticket I would bury his ass in the minors and find a replacement that doesn’t need cue cards when it’s time to get nasty.

    See I don’t see it that way at all.
    I would prefer it if Kassian stuck to hockey. There are posters like you who think he should have been more physical against Chicago. And there are posters who were pissed at him for snapping on Tkachuk in January. Poor bastard can’t win, no matter what he does.

  175. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    .956/1.79

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=EDM&pos=G&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=gpdate&fd=2020-02-25&td=2020-03-10&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL

    Imagine professing that a .917/2.75 is below average and a .905/3.06 is proven to be ready to start and actually trying to be taken seriously……

    Imagine a goalie who has a .914 career save percentage at a cap hit of $1 million was better than a goalie who has a career save percentage of .909 but is paid more than 4 times as much.

    https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=146146

    https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=112570

    You certainly can’t take this madness seriously.

  176. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: And that’s a trend that will accelerate as the league becomes faster and younger.

    Coming to a rink near you five year old wins Norris trophy.😂

  177. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Demko with a save percentage of .914 at a cap hit of $1,050 million is a much better bet than Koskinen with a save percentage of .909 at a cap hit of $4.5 million.

    Adding a goaltender with a .913 save percentage at $3.5 million to cover the bet gives the Canucks two goaltenders at the price of one Koskinen.

    And, of course, the Oilers don’t even have a credible backup.

    Huge advantage Canucks.

    Plan the parade! The Dys win the dys win.

  178. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:
  179. Lewis Grant says:

    Congrats to Leon. A well-earned Hart. The “German Gretzky”, indeed.

    (I do feel a little bad for MacKinnon – this was the chance for voters to right the wrong of having chosen Taylor Hall over him a couple years ago. Not saying MacKinnon necessarily deserved it this year, but he definitely did that year.)

    I will own up to having been totally wrong in my harsh criticism of Leon’s deal. I figured he had to become the next Mark Messier to make it a team-friendly deal. He has now won a Hart at a much younger age than Mess did.

    I still believe Connor is the better player. A typical goal this year had Leon making the kind of pass that only a few NHLers can make, followed by Connor making the kind of play that no player in NHL history has ever been able to make.

    I’m glad we have both of them.

  180. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The money goalies:
    https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/2019-20-nhl-goalies-playoff-stats.html

    That appears to show MAF, Koskinen and Demko all tied.

    Parsing slightly more, it appears MAF and Demko are backup goalies?

  181. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Imagine, using a 36 year old regressing goalie’s career save percentage as an indication of their future performance – on an inferior team with an inferior defence.

    You forgot about Ekblad.

  182. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Go for it.

    While you’re at it, find a 5 game segment where Koskinen was lights out.

    It’s funny, I was going to post something about how the Canucks were on a nose dive out of the playoffs, but were saved by the pandemic (with Demko in net after Markstrom got injured).

    Demko wasn’t actually notably bad during that stretch (.906, same as his overall season).

    I wasn’t looking for it but Koskinen played 5 games in that time frame: 5GP 1.79GAA .956SV%.

  183. jp says:

    who: See I don’t see it that way at all.
    I would prefer it if Kassian stuck to hockey. There are posters like you who think he should have been more physical against Chicago. And there are posters who were pissed at him for snapping on Tkachuk in January. Poor bastard can’t win, no matter what he does.

    I think 100% of us think he should have been better vs Chicago.

  184. jp says:

    Ryan:
    One interesting trend, Connor’s GA/60 rate has been climbing.
    We know 97 is all-world at many things, but playing defense is not one of them.

    2017-18
    97 with Maroon. 2.75
    97 without Maroon. 2.71

    2018-19
    97 and 29.3.28
    97 without 29. 3.34

    2019-20
    97 and 44. 3.17
    97 without 44. 3.52

    I kinda think this is key.

    Woodguy showed the D with McDavid earlier but that’s a weird sample for them (McDavid was the worst Oiler by a bit in DFA/60).

    In 16-17 and 17-18 McDavid was driving on ice SH% but also outshooting and out-chancing, no matter who he played with. Since then it’s slipped back to kinda breaking even (and on the “for” as well as “against” sides).

    McDavid-Draisaitl when together this year were outscored. THAT is a crazy stat.

    I think McDavid will get back to where he was, but my guess is that the change has been more in McDavid’s game than in who he’s played with.

  185. jp says:

    Ryan: I am a little slow at work today, so I played with excel.
    Over the past three seasons, for defensemen playing more than 900 minute total at 5v5 (arbitrary cutoff. I had started with 300 min per season initially), there was a weak negative correlation of -0.17 between toi/g at 5v5 at on ice save percentage. So there’s an effect there, but not demonstrably robust.
    It does support my idea that lower on ice SV% on the aggregate are driven by playing more against better players.
    Either that or the alternative hypothesis would be that coaches are dumb and they play their weaker players too much and should play their 3rd pairing dmen more for better results.

    Ryan: For the Oilers d last year, I ran the On ice SV% against the On the fly starts per 60. (min 300 min played at 5v5)
    The correlation coefficient was 0.89.
    3rd pairing on the Oilers dmen get sheltered with high on the fly starts/60. They also have high on ice sv% since they play more against grittensity.
    On teams that roll d pairs or match less, this effect would wash out.
    Over the past three years, the effect was lower at 0.44.

    This is interesting stuff (I’ve been the opposite, extra busy at work, so late getting to read everything).

    SV% following QoC makes sense for sure and you do have a correlation. It’s tough though because you’re comparing across teams, systems, goalies. So there’s a ton of noise aside from what you want to look at.

    It’s not SV% but I was looking at the PuckIQ DFA/60 just now. Woodguy posted the results with McDavid earlier, but the overall results (all teammates, all levels of competition) track really well with %TOI vs elites (DFA for 3rd pairing (Russell/Benning) < 2nd pairing (Klefbom/Larsson) <1st pairing (Nurse/Bear)). I think that agrees with QoC affecting SV%.

    Jumping back to PDO from SV%/DFA. DFF follows the exact same trend as DFA (players facing lower comp have lower DFFs). And almost weirdly all the Oilers D fall pretty tightly in DFF% (all between 47.1% and 50.0%) (actually Russell is an outlier there, aside from him everyone is between 48.2% and 50.0%).

    On the SV% vs OTF starts, that's an impressive correlation. Even over 3 years it's pretty decent. A caveat is that we know going in that Klefbom has had a bad on ice SV% while getting few OTF starts. It would be nice to see how the correlation holds beyond the Oilers since Klefbom himself could skew the results (whether by something he did or by being unlucky).

  186. who says:

    jp: I think 100% of us think he should have been better vs Chicago.

    Fair enough.
    But you could say that about most Oiler players

  187. Reja says:

    who: See I don’t see it that way at all.
    I would prefer it if Kassian stuck to hockey. There are posters like you who think he should have been more physical against Chicago. And there are posters who were pissed at him for snapping on Tkachuk in January. Poor bastard can’t win, no matter what he does.

    If Kassian isn’t physical and aggressive with him just floating around like he doesn’t have a care in the world makes him a below average NHL player. I like Kass but if he thinks he’s to good to be physical the blue collar fans will turn on him something fierce.

  188. hags9k says:

    Or as my buddy’s dad would say, “Crushers who think they’re rushers become ushers.”

    Cool story Harper, I always thought that Steve French could probably dunk.

  189. jp says:

    who: Fair enough.
    But you could say that about most Oiler players

    Seems I like Kassian more than most, but his performance vs Chicago was among the most disappointing on the team.

    I was just saying that whether you value Kassian’s hockeying or his physical play, you can’t be happy with game in the play-in.

    No need to over-react to 4 games, but we are all unified (I think) in seeing it as not good enough.

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