Draft Week Post No. 2: 16 Shells from a Thirty-Ought Six

I always cheer for the prospects, even when it takes five years. Hell, Brandon Davidson took six and Oilers fans waited on him. In the days ahead, Ken Holland is going to be shuffling the deck and changing the depth chart of his roster. I was impressed with his work a year ago (gave him a B-), beginning with his choice of coach. He has a little more money and one less draft pick entering draft week. Fewer needs (Goalie, No. 3 center, scoring winger, Jesse Puljujarvi) and a ringing in our ears about OEL. If you listen closely, out in the distance, past the sound of Trans-Canada railroad chugging down the track, you can hear the name of the goalie arriving soon. I think I hear Holtby. You?

THE ATHLETIC!

I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.

A YEAR AGO

This was last year heading into the draft, Rishaug hitting the left coast and delivering several interesting items. We’ll get that in the days ahead no doubt, but it is interesting we haven’t heard a name mentioned as often as Broberg’s in 2019. Much of that may have to do with the large number of draft eligibles who could be available at No. 14. The later this goes, the better for Edmonton, Russians (Askaros, Amirov) are surging and who knows if one or both go before No. 14 overall. Bodes well for acquiring Jarvis or Quinn or Guhle.

PROJECTED ROSTER

I think it’ll be a ‘good news, bad news’ offseason for Oilers fans. You’re really going to like some things (youth invades the defense, some youth infused on the wings) and balk at the choices of veterans to fill. The roster below reflects Holland’s own past and what the Oilers pipeline is giving him. It’s a guess, but there are reasons behind why I think he might make all of the moves. Here’s the roster via CapFriendly (there’s $1,002,849 in cap space):

It’s a young blue line but you could go Klefbom-Bear, Nurse-Bouchard and Jones-Larsson to make sure there’s a veteran presence. I do think Holland will re-make the No. 3 line, and Sutter’s presence in the middle gives the team a veteran there while also giving Haas a real chance to slide in between Bjork and Puljujarvi. Holtby, in my opinion, is a top dead center match for Holland’s modus operandi. Here are the trades:

Important to note: This is neither an endorsement of the path described here, nor what I would do (that will come later in the week). This is what I think Holland might try, providing he doesn’t pull the trigger on an OEL deal.

OILERS MOCK DRAFT

Adding the pick from Anaheim gives the Oilers draft a little more significance.

First round, No. 14 overall — RW Jack Quinn, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). He scored 52 goals in junior, that’s a stunning total (in 62 games). Quinn is a September 2001 (not as much development track) and played on a great team (may be more complementary player) but there’s just too much here to ignore. I think Jarvis is gone by No. 14 overall.

Third round, No. 67 overall—LW Roby Jarventie, KooVee (Mestis). This is a terrific prospect, who brings size (6.02, 184), scoring ability (23 goals in 36 games) and speed to every shift. He’s an August 2002, so is on the other end of Quinn in the age spectrum for this draft.

Third round, No. 76 overall—LW Oskar Magnusson, Malmo (SuperElite). Smaller winger good speed and two-way acumen, he can also play center and has a plus shot. I like his year over year improvement (19 to 48 points in SuperElite) and he’s a January 2020.

Fifth round, No. 138 overall—G Calle Clang, Rogle (SuperElite). Big goalie with good results in league play and internationally, projecting goaltenders and where they’ll land is impossible in the era of ‘searching for giants’ but I like Clang’s resume a lot.

Sixth round, No 169 overall—LW Yevgeni Oksentyuk, Flint Firebirds (OHL). Impressive season for Feb. 2001, under the radar skill winger. You must be tiring of reading about “small skill wingers” but the thing to remember is these men have offensive success in junior. He scored 33-45-78 in 58 games. He. can. play.

Seventh round, No. 200 overall—RD Mason Langenbrunner, Eden Prairie High School. Young defenseman with the vital stats of a pencil (6.03, 170). He has the complete range of skills and is on his way to Harvard.

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154 Responses to "Draft Week Post No. 2: 16 Shells from a Thirty-Ought Six"

  1. fishman says:

    LT like your projected line up! Have the green egg fired up and the pork belly is on!!

  2. 106 and 106 says:

    That’s a happy middle of the road team – not elite and not awful – playoff bound!

    How nice is it to see 12 actual NHL forwards and 6 actual NHL D in the starting lineup. Year 2 of the new regime and prospects maturing nicely.

    Still think Holland wants a horse on D!

    Can’t wait for draft day!

  3. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Chiasson for Bjork
    Russell for Grabner
    Benning for a 3rd
    Sign Dell, J Larsson & Soucy

    Nuge- Drai- Yamamoto
    Bjork- McD- Puljujarvi
    Grabner- Larsson- Archie
    Neal- Khaira- Kassian
    Nygard, Haas

    Nurse- Bear
    Klefbom- Larsson
    Soucy- Jones
    Lagesson

    If Bouchard proves ready for ice time, balance the pairing’s TOI some more and run Bouch ‘n Bom with some softer minutes than Klef has seen in years. Hell, maybe even run 7D.

    Nurse- Bear
    Klefbom- Bouchard
    Jones/Soucy- Larsson
    Soucy/Jones

  4. Hairbag says:

    I would sooner trade Russell to Calgary for Derek Ryan……..you know Calgary isn’t on his no trade list.

  5. godot10 says:

    I assume there is a Russell for Sutter trade in there.

  6. godot10 says:

    godot10:
    I assume there is a Russell for Sutter trade in there.

    Forget that post. My eyes were deceiving me. Sunday mornings…not enough coffee yet.

  7. nelson88 says:

    Samorukov with another apple today. I stand by my earlier prediction he will have a better nhl career than any current Canucks defense prospect not named Quinn. Slepy with another nice goal. Wish Sammy could smuggle him out in the cello case because he would go a long way to fixing the oilers scoring winger issue.

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Sutter is probably only a slight upgrade on Sheahan.

    I hope Holland aims higher.

  9. oilersjo says:

    Good Morning. I do not understand the thoughts if some on Benson. Smart player,good hands a bit of a prick. He is not Steve Kelly quick but by gum he is smart. Speed only counts when the processer works as quick as the feet.

  10. leadfarmer says:

    I think LT makes up trade scenarios so Woodguy has to research them 🙂

    But Russell without a big actual salary on an expiring contract will have some value even if you retain a bit

  11. leadfarmer says:

    Was Jamie Langerbrunner a stick figure when he was drafted?
    He’s couple inches taller than his old man

  12. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer:
    I think LT makes up trade scenarios so Woodguy has to research them

    But Russell without a big actual salary on an expiring contract will have some value even if you retain a bit

    The key is not to sell low on Russel which includes retaining salary/cap. Russel will get you a second or third round draft choice approaching the trade deadline Sutter will not. One of Russels trade values early is you can test drive him until the trade deadline and then move him for a draft choice, I would guess a second pr third round pick.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov on the ice in the last minute protecting a one goal lead and scores the empty netter – trust of the coach growing and Sammy’s great start to the year continues as he gets 1G/1A for 2P and plus 3 in just over 18 minutes of ice in a 4-2 win.

  14. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    9 games, 2G, 3A, +8 (10GF-2GA) for a 21 year old Dman in the KHL is a pretty nice statline!

  15. JOFA says:

    oilersjo:
    Good Morning.I do not understand the thoughts if some on Benson.Smart player,good hands a bit of a prick.He is not Steve Kelly quick but by gum he is smart. Speed only counts when the processer works as quick as the feet.

    So more Wrigley’s than Hubba Bubba you’re saying?

  16. buck yoakam says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Could it be possible that Sammy is the next bflartny regiggleman?….I guess we won’t know this for five years or so

  17. Jiminey says:

    oilersjo:
    Good Morning.I do not understand the thoughts if some on Benson.Smart player,good hands a bit of a prick.He is not Steve Kelly quick but by gum he is smart. Speed only counts when the processer works as quick as the feet.

    I think people here generally like Benning. Some like him a lot. The reason he is often speculated in trade talk is because he does have value, and the Oilers are deep on the back end. He can be replaced internally by somebody making less money. If we were not so deep on D, you would not hear any trade speculation with Benning’s name involved.

  18. Woogie63 says:

    Normally AHL prospects percolate at the same time as the NHL season is playing making it harder to join an NHL team. The league gets better as the season moves along.

    This year we have 7 prospects that will have played 25 pro games BEFORE the NHL starts.

    Then another 5 prospects will have played 60 pro games around the 1/4 mark of the NHL season.

    What a great move to have all those prospects and then getting them playing in Europ

  19. JOFA says:

    Jiminey: I think people here generally like Benning. Some like him a lot. The reason he is often speculated in trade talk is because he does have value, and the Oilers are deep on the back end. He can be replaced internally by somebody making less money. If we were not so deep on D, you would not hear any trade speculation with Benning’s name involved.

    Benning doesn’t play in Switzerland 😉

  20. Harpers Hair says:

    Rear Admiral (@RearAdBsBlog) Tweeted:

    Look for the Bruins to trade Torey Krug’s rights tomorrow to a team looking for exclusive negotiations before UFA opens on 10/9. Colorado, Florida, Vegas, and Detroit are among the suitors.

  21. Melman says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Let’s hope so. Sutter is broken and slow

  22. kanatacus says:

    I like that lineup, Lowetide, but doesn’t Holland need a D who played significant games in the last 1 to 2 years and on a non-expiring contract to expose in the expansion draft? Or I suppose he could not protect Jones but that wouldn’t be smart IMO.

  23. Eh Team says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Sutter is probably only a slight upgrade on Sheahan.

    I hope Holland aims higher.

    Yeah, a big no on Sutter. Sutter just means we have a lousy 3rd line once again.

  24. GB&Q says:

    There’s something oddly satisfying about a goalie named “Clang”. 🤓

    I know Askarov is bigger, but a likely ready sooner Konovalov fills that need, no?

    more speedy forwards, s il vous plait.

  25. Todd Macallan says:

    YES TOM WAITS. That is all.

  26. pts2pndr says:

    buck yoakam:
    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual,

    Could it be possible that Sammy is the next bflartny regiggleman?….I guess we won’t know this for five years or so

    A snare for hare😂

  27. pts2pndr says:

    kanatacus:
    I like that lineup, Lowetide, but doesn’t Holland need a D who played significant games in the last 1 to 2 years and on a non-expiring contract to expose in the expansion draft?Or I suppose he could not protect Jones but that wouldn’t be smart IMO.

    Lots of options but it will depend on what he decides to do re trades, acquisitions etc.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Holland and the organization had expressed earlier that its likely just tinkering and Holland essentially re-iterated that to Terry Jones the other day – I expect he put in a call to Steve Sullivan and then Bill Armstrong on OEL because that’s his job but I don’t suspect that Holland, looking to the future with Nurse, Klef, Jones, Broberg, Samorukov thinks LD is the place to spend his cap space.

    I expect any conversations with Armstrong to surround the likes of Rantta, Grabner, etc.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    LT, you’ve been pressing Holtby for a few days now – is that who you want or is that who you think Holland will acquire?

  30. godot10 says:

    kanatacus:
    I like that lineup, Lowetide, but doesn’t Holland need a D who played significant games in the last 1 to 2 years and on a non-expiring contract to expose in the expansion draft?Or I suppose he could not protect Jones but that wouldn’t be smart IMO.

    The most likely option is extending Adam Larsson to meet the expanson exposure requirement.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    I could get on board with Benning for a 2nd but not for a 3rd and not without a signing of a depth RD.

    I’m cool with the Russell for Sutter but would like to see what the Oilers would have to add to get Tierney or Brown or Duclair out of Ottawa (and it Rusty would agree to go there).

    I’m cool with giving Haas some at bats at 3C – I have a feeling, a feeling based on little except his style of game and the boost he seemed to give in game 5).

    Who is the goalie on that roster LT and, if its Holtby, what type of contract do you think we are looking at?

  32. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    LT, you’ve been pressing Holtby for a few days now – is that who you want or is that who you think Holland will acquire?

    Holtby hasn’t been good for three seasons now. And Washington is a good hockey team.

    Unless Holtby comes on a one year bargain deal. i.e. a prove it deal.

  33. Rondo says:

    2020 Draft #14.

    Askarov
    Quinn
    Jarvis
    Holloway
    Guhle
    Mercer

  34. kanatacus says:

    godot10,

    So you would protect Jones and expose an extended Larsson? That’d be a tough call especially if you could extend Larsson to a contract with a reasonable cap hit. I suppose it’s moot to contemplate until the roster is finalized anyway.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: The most likely option is extending Adam Larsson to meet the expanson exposure requirement.

    Lagesson could be the guy as well but he likely only meets games played exposure requirement if there a couple big injuries.

    From a high level, I’m OK re-signing Adam Larsson but, given Bear in the top 4 and Bouchard likely to be there for the 2021/22 season (if not some time this coming season), I’m uncertain if Larsson will be amenable to taking enough of a haircut on his current AAV – and, given his age, 28 soon, he will want some term.

    Damn, I really wish that Berglund was playing in North America this year and we could have a better sense of his 3RD capabilities.

    I still think a Benning re-sign is the best bet – I mean a 3rd round pick is nice but I take this developed player, that does his job to a T, will take care of expansion draft requirements and is not a cap anchor.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    kanatacus:
    godot10,

    So you would protect Jones and expose an extended Larsson?That’d be a tough call especially if you could extend Larsson to a contract with a reasonable cap hit.I suppose it’s moot to contemplate until the roster is finalized anyway.

    Of course, this depends on how next season goes, however, I anticipate that Jones will take a Bear-like step and all but solidify himself as a top 4 option and a must-protect.

  37. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    LT, you’ve been pressing Holtby for a few days now – is that who you want or is that who you think Holland will acquire?

    From the original post:

    Important to note: This is neither an endorsement of the path described here, nor what I would do (that will come later in the week). This is what I think Holland might try, providing he doesn’t pull the trigger on an OEL deal.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    What would Justin Braun cost as the veteran RD depth replacement if Benning is moved?

    Will he be cheaper? I doubt it.

  39. kanatacus says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, this depends on how next season goes, however, I anticipate that Jones will take a Bear-like step and all but solidify himself as a top 4 option and a must-protect.

    I still feel that Larsson has too much value to lose to an expansion draft. I’d rather they get a JAG defenseman as 7D who has enough games played from this year and can be exposed. Then trade Larsson for a forward and maybe one of the forwards with a less than desirable contract might be chosen by Seattle (read Neal or Kassian).

  40. who says:

    kanatacus: I still feel that Larsson has too much value to lose to an expansion draft.I’d rather they get a JAG defenseman as 7D who has enough games played from this year and can be exposed.Then trade Larsson for a forward and maybe one of the forwards with a less than desirable contract might be chosen by Seattle (read Neal or Kassian).

    Neal is not getting chosen by Seattle. Not without a major asset going with him.
    It takes some very rose colored glasses, to even hope, that Seattle picks Neal.

  41. godot10 says:

    kanatacus:
    godot10,

    So you would protect Jones and expose an extended Larsson?That’d be a tough call especially if you could extend Larsson to a contract with a reasonable cap hit.I suppose it’s moot to contemplate until the roster is finalized anyway.

    If the OIlers extend Larsson at 4 x $4 million, it is extremely unlikely Seattle with take him.

  42. Harpers Hair says:

    I’m convinced the Seattle expansion draft will be like no other, given the current economic climate.

    Expansion rules state Seattle must select a minimum of 20 players from other teams being paid enough to hit the cap floor.

    I expect they will be very selective and will not select 30 players but will instead use their enormous cap space to sign players from the flood of free agents that are about to hit the market and will be able to sign them at bargain prices.

    If you’re thinking you’ll be able to entice them to take any cap dumps, I expect the price to be very dear.

    They will be the one team that will have the cap space and resources to actually benefit from the league economic turn down.

    (Ottawa could benefit from this but likely doesn’t have the responses to take full advantage)

  43. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If KH gets OEL in a few years both Klef and Nurse have to go

    Bouchard and Bro are going to get paid once the ELCs are up.

    I don’t see how he fits long term, unless they trade him as well and don’t accept his movement clauses in a deal, but he may not go for that now. We do know they can’t have 3 D getting the big dollars especially with the top 2 F getting what they do.

    I wouldn’t be surprised as they have said to see few big changes on D except cap moves out. Bouchard will be on the team sooner rather than later. The expansion draft and Covid are a nasty combo for GMs

  44. jimdewger says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I could get on board with Benning for a 2nd but not for a 3rd and not without a signing of a depth RD.

    I’m cool with the Russell for Sutter but would like to see what the Oilers would have to add to get Tierney or Brown or Duclair out of Ottawa (and it Rusty would agree to go there).

    I’m cool with giving Haas some at bats at 3C – I have a feeling, a feeling based on little except his style of game and the boost he seemed to give in game 5).

    Who is the goalie on that roster LT and, if its Holtby, what type of contract do you think we are looking at?

    The Oilers moved players out without a replacement for too long. I sure hope that in the case of a Benning for a pick move, that there is a contingency plan for injuries on the right side.

  45. pts2pndr says:

    Rondo:
    2020 Draft #14.

    Askarov
    Quinn
    Jarvis
    Holloway
    Guhle
    Mercer

    I might exchange Jarvis and Holloway but your list looks solid to me

  46. kanatacus says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, this depends on how next season goes, however, I anticipate that Jones will take a Bear-like step and all but solidify himself as a top 4 option and a must-protect.

    I still feel that Larsson has too much value to lose to an expansion draft. I’d rather they get a JAG defenseman as 7D who has enough games played from this year and can be exposed. Then trade Larsson for a forward and maybe one of the forwards with a less than desirable contract might be chosen by Seattle (read Neal or Kassian).

    who: Neal is not getting chosen by Seattle. Not without a major asset going with him.
    It takes some very rose colored glasses, to even hope, that Seattle picks Neal.

    Point taken but with the right incentive anything is possible.

  47. SwedishPoster says:

    I tend to stay away from goalies in my yearly musings over swedish draftees because you know they are the types to stick needles into your doll but I keep hearing good things about Clang. He’s in the same age group as 2021 prospect Jesper Wallstedt who’s the most hyped up goalie prospect out of Sweden since, O’d say ever, Clang is in his age group and has sort of developed in his shadow which according to people I trust with goalies has made him seriously underrated since he’s a great prospect in his own right.

    Also, two swedish goalie prospects within a year, one named Clang and the other has Wall in his name, like what the hell is going on?
    And the best swedish goalie in 2022 is called Barpostglovesave if I remember correctly.

  48. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    JOFA: Hubba

    Chicklets.

  49. who says:

    kanatacus: I still feel that Larsson has too much value to lose to an expansion draft.I’d rather they get a JAG defenseman as 7D who has enough games played from this year and can be exposed.Then trade Larsson for a forward and maybe one of the forwards with a less than desirable contract might be chosen by Seattle (read Neal or Kassian).

    Point taken but with the right incentive anything is possible.

    Sure. But the right incentive is probably a 1st rounder, minimum.
    Are you willing to part with that to dispose of 2 years of Neal?
    Isn’t it better to just buy him out?

  50. pts2pndr says:

    who,

    Even if Neal doesn’t get taken there will only be two years of pain left. Much depends on how close the new team wants to get to the cap. They may decide to stay closer to the cap floor initially. It will all depend on how the economy is rebounding. Until the playoff games can be in the home teams arena with butts in the seats there is little incentive to excel. It will also depend on a possible division realignment. Many moving parts and much uncertainty. What is the magic number of games for even an abbreviated next season.

  51. pts2pndr says:

    who: Sure. But the right incentive is probably a 1st rounder, minimum.
    Are you willing to part with that to dispose of 2 years of Neal?
    Isn’t it better to just buy him out?

    It may be better to let it run out allowing an extra two million when it comes time for Draisaitl and McDavid.

  52. Eh Team says:

    godot10: If the OIlers extend Larsson at 4 x $4 million, it is extremely unlikely Seattle with take him.

    That’s obvious but why would Edmonton want Larsson at 4 x $4. You are locking in 4 declining years (yeah, Larsson is only 28 but that’s post peak). Larsson’s a stay at home d’man but it would be better to get a d’man who can transition the puck.

  53. Eh Team says:

    kanatacus: who: Neal is not getting chosen by Seattle. Not without a major asset going with him.
    It takes some very rose colored glasses, to even hope, that Seattle picks Neal.

    Point taken but with the right incentive anything is possible.

    It cost the Rangers a 2nd round pick to dump Staal who had one year left on his contract. So to dump Neal with 3 years left? At least 3 2nd round picks.

  54. who says:

    pts2pndr:
    who,

    Even if Neal doesn’t get taken there will only be two years of pain left. Much depends on how close the new team wants to get to the cap. They may decide to stay closer to the cap floor initially. It will all depend on how the economy is rebounding. Until the playoff games can be in the home teams arena with butts in the seats there is little incentive to excel. It will also depend on a possible division realignment. Many moving parts and much uncertainty. What is the magic number of games for even an abbreviated next season.

    I think Neals career with the Oilers is very much year to year at this point.
    Doesn’t sound like they’re buying him out this year. But if he doesn’t show marked improvement next year, I think they pretty much have to buy him out next year.
    Difficult to see him turning it around given his age and lack of mobility.

  55. who says:

    pts2pndr: It may be better to let it run out allowing an extra two million when it comes time for Draisaitl and McDavid.

    Wouldn’t the buy-out be done by the time you need to resign Draisaitl?

  56. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    New roster with some small tweaks around the edges, and using blog favourites to fill holes and recoup some assets. Basically a response to the roster posted in today’s blog by our host.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/371785

  57. Reja says:

    JOFA: So more Wrigley’s than Hubba Bubba you’re saying?

    Bazooka all the way.

  58. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    who,

    Neal’s mobility looked improved in the play-in vs CHI, but otherwise I very much agree with your post.

    Barring an incredible trade win, I’d pencil him in next year and see what happens. Either he improves his trade value or the extra year diminishes the pain of a buyout.

  59. Reja says:

    who: I think Neals career with the Oilers is very much year to year at this point.
    Doesn’t sound like they’re buying him out this year. But if he doesn’t show marked improvement next year, I think they pretty much have to buy him out next year.
    Difficult to see him turning it around given his age and lack of mobility.

    What happens if he scores 26 goals next year Holland’s not buying out a goal scorer. If he flops this year well he can book his ticket back to Nashville for a million on a one year deal.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    OriginalPouzar,

    9 games, 2G, 3A, +8 (10GF-2GA) for a 21 year old Dman in the KHL is a pretty nice statline!

    Yup, that GF% is marvellous to see, isn’t it?

    I think he’s playing 2nd pairing minutes at 5 on 5, and killing it!

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Holtby hasn’t been good for three seasons now.And Washington is a good hockey team.

    Unless Holtby comes on a one year bargain deal.i.e. a prove it deal.

    I agree. I have essentially zero interest in Holtby – I’ve just seen LT mention him a few times this week and I have concern.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    kanatacus: I still feel that Larsson has too much value to lose to an expansion draft.I’d rather they get a JAG defenseman as 7D who has enough games played from this year and can be exposed.Then trade Larsson for a forward and maybe one of the forwards with a less than desirable contract might be chosen by Seattle (read Neal or Kassian).

    How about Matt Benning as the exposure requirement d-man?

    I see more value in Benning being solid depth/injury/3rd pairing guy and exposure draft requirement dude that than a 3rd rounder to tell you the truth – and I would love to add another third round pick.

    JJ Khaira should grab a 3rd round pick – Matty Benning is more valuable than a 3rd rounder, at least in my opinion.

  63. who says:

    Reja: What happens if he scores 26 goals next year Holland’s not buying out a goal scorer. If he flops this year well he can book his ticket back to Nashville for a million on a one year deal.

    And you see him scoring 26 next year?

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    After 9 games, Samorukov sits tied for 2nd in the KHL in plus/minus and 1st for d-men. Ya, plus/minus is what it is (and we know he was on for an empty net goal today) but still – for a 21 year old rookie d-man.

    He’s also tied for 8th among KHL d-men in points with 5 in 9 games.

    Average 17.5 min per game.

  65. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Just wanted to say thanks for the continual prospect update posts. Really simplifies things not having to parse the entire Interwebs on my own haha

  66. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    JJ wasn’t enough to get Nick Ritchie. As much as I’d like a 3rd rounder for JJ… I don’t think he’d fetch that much in a trade.

  67. Woogie63 says:

    Last year we started the season with;

    Granlund, Gagner, Russell, Persson and Smith for opening night.

    This year we will could start with;

    Yamamoto, AA , Pulijujarvi, Jones and Bear

    And Bouchard, Benson and Broberg all had a full year of development

  68. John Chambers says:

    godot10: Holtby hasn’t been good for three seasons now.And Washington is a good hockey team.

    Unless Holtby comes on a one year bargain deal.i.e. a prove it deal.

    Braden Holtby won the Stanley Cup two seasons ago. Seems near impossible to do that if he wasn’t good.

    The following season he was .911 and this past season he struggled.

    There is a shade of truth to your statement, and a healthy dose of hyperbole.

  69. Lowetide says:

    NEW for The Athletic: Who will be available if the Oilers pick at No. 14? Will they make pick? The game is afoot

    https://theathletic.com/2096479/2020/09/27/lowetide-who-will-be-available-if-the-oilers-pick-at-no-14/

  70. Yegfoundation says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Are you serious with this question ? Did you even read the blog post?

  71. Yegfoundation says:

    Lowetide,

    LT, you’re a gentleman for responding to the question, I wouldn’t have had the patience.

  72. Yegfoundation says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree.I have essentially zero interest in Holtby – I’ve just seen LT mention him a few times this week and I have concern.

    Oh boy.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    nelson88:
    Samorukov with another apple today. I stand by my earlier prediction he will have a better nhl career than any current Canucks defense prospect not named Quinn.Slepy with another nice goal. Wish Sammy could smuggle him out in the cello case because he would go a long way to fixing the oilers scoring winger issue.

    Can’t happen – he’s already 21 and hasn’t had hip surgery or drafted out of college with a unique development path. He hasn’t arrived and its too late now!

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: The key is not to sell low on Russel which includes retaining salary/cap.Russel will get you a second or third round draft choice approaching the trade deadline Sutter will not. One of Russels trade values early is you can test drive him until the trade deadline and then move him for a draft choice, I would guess a second pr third round pick.

    With respect, to me, any thoughts on potential selling of an asset at the trade deadline, should have zero effect on off-season team building.

    I can’t imagine any possible scenario with Ken Holland is looking to sell-off any NHL d-man, let alone a veteran hard-nosed d-man, with the playoffs in sight.

    The Oilers had depth at D heading in to the trade deadline this season and Holland still went and acquired more.

    Even if Rusty could fetch a 2nd rounder at the deadline, I think there is all but zero chance that Holland sells him unless the season has gone off the rails.

  75. Reja says:

    who: And you see him scoring 26 next year?

    If he’s healthy and PP1 is humming along like last year why not. He still has his hands just like that bum for Dallas last night. Neal has a better chance of scoring 25 than Jesse does of ever playing another game in Oilers silks.

  76. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    LT, you’ve been pressing Holtby for a few days now – is that who you want or is that who you think Holland will acquire?

    A big fat no to Holtby he couldn’t stop a beachball with the defensively minded Caps the last couple of years.

  77. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Can’t happen – he’s already 21 and hasn’t had hip surgery or drafted out of college with a unique development path.He hasn’t arrived and its too late now!

    Quinn Hughes scored 5G 28A 33P in 32 games in his second season at the University of Michigan.

    Jack Rathbone scored 7G 24A 31P in 28 games in his second season at the D factory at Harvard.

    Like Hughes, Rathbone is a plus skating puck mover.

    Imagine if the Canucks end up with TWO of them.

  78. kanatacus says:

    who: Sure. But the right incentive is probably a 1st rounder, minimum.
    Are you willing to part with that to dispose of 2 years of Neal?
    Isn’t it better to just buy him out?

    Nope and nope. I’d rather trade and retain salary than buyout Neal. Enough with the buyouts; Pouliot is still on the cap FFS. That said, there are other forwards on the team I would be more willing to lose than Jones or Larsson though.

  79. kanatacus says:

    OriginalPouzar: How about Matt Benning as the exposure requirement d-man?

    I see more value in Benning being solid depth/injury/3rd pairing guy and exposure draft requirement dude that than a 3rd rounder to tell you the truth – and I would love to add another third round pick.

    JJ Khaira should grab a 3rd round pick – Matty Benning is more valuable than a 3rd rounder, at least in my opinion.

    Yes, I like Benning but he’s in Bouchard’s potential slot. What do you need to sign him to so he fills the requirement? 2×2 million? Do you want your 7d at 2×2 mil? Because if Benning is replacing Larsson in the top 4, that’s a step in the wrong direction IMO. He (Benning) hasn’t really been that great when he’s been pushed up to top 4D.

  80. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    kanatacus: Because if Benning is replacing Larsson in the top 4, that’s a step in the wrong direction IMO. He (Benning) hasn’t really been that great when he’s been pushed up to top 4D.

    By eye, or stats?

  81. rocket says:

    If a 3rd line center is of the “highest” priority Craig Smith is a right hand shot who is testing free agency. In his career he is always over 50% corsi. Getting him would mean paying less for a goalie…. Have to determine what is the priority…

  82. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    On CapFriendly I’ve been seeing a lot of 4th or 5th round pick trades for James Reimer.

    Thoughts?

  83. jp says:

    who: And you see him scoring 26 next year?

    He scored at a 28 goals per 82 GP pace this year. 26 goals this coming season wouldn’t shock me in the least (or the equivalent in a shortened season).

  84. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Quinn Hughes scored 5G 28A 33P in 32 games in his second season at the University of Michigan.

    Jack Rathbone scored 7G 24A 31P in 28 games in his second season at the D factory at Harvard.

    Like Hughes, Rathbone is a plus skating puck mover.

    Imagine if the Canucks end up with TWO of them.

    Then they would have TWO NHL defensemen

  85. jp says:

    Reja: A big fat no to Holtby he couldn’t stop a beachball with the defensively minded Caps the last couple of years.

    The Caps are a good team but they are not defensively minded.

    Was looking earlier at his past 3 ‘shitty’ years. Well they aren’t at all good.

    58 goalies with 3000+ total minutes played. Holtby was 45th with a .906 SV%

    But he was also (of the 58):
    9th in high danger SA
    15th in rush attempts against
    7th in rebound attempts against
    6th in expected GA

    The Caps have not been a defensively minded team.

  86. leadfarmer says:

    There’s a rumor that Holtby will take Markstroms spot in Van
    Guessing Markstrom goes to Calgary

  87. jp says:

    Of note, in that same set of 58 goalies I noticed Koskinen.

    He was 30th of 58 in SV% at .911

    While ranking as follows:
    14th in high danger SA
    2nd in rush attempts against
    4th in rebound attempts against
    12th in expected GA

    Facing those kinds of chance but still grading out as average in SV% isn’t bad at all.

  88. who says:

    jp: He scored at a 28 goals per 82 GP pace this year. 26 goals this coming season wouldn’t shock me in the least (or the equivalent in a shortened season).

    You are a bigger believer than me.
    I guess we’ll see.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    kanatacus: I still feel that Larsson has too much value to lose to an expansion draft.I’d rather they get a JAG defenseman as 7D who has enough games played from this year and can be exposed.Then trade Larsson for a forward and maybe one of the forwards with a less than desirable contract might be chosen by Seattle (read Neal or Kassian).

    I’ve been pumping Lagesson for 3 seasons now and I think there is a real player there but, with respect, in my opinion, if Willie is the player lost to Seattle, that’s a great result (although it likely means all of AA, Benson, Kassian, Puljujavi etc. were deemed less worthy by the Kraken which likely isn’t a great sign).

    I can’t imagine Neal being taken in expansion – not without a deal being made with the Oilers adding real assets out.

    I don’t imagine

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: If the OIlers extend Larsson at 4 x $4 million, it is extremely unlikely Seattle with take him.

    Unless Holland isn’t expecting Bouchard to play above the 3rd pairing in the next 5 seasons, I don’t see how such an extension makes sense.

  91. kanatacus says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: By eye, or stats?

    Smell test. Def not stats.

  92. kanatacus says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’ve been pumping Lagesson for 3 seasons now and I think there is a real player there but, with respect, in my opinion, if Willie is the player lost to Seattle, that’s a great result (although it likely means all of AA, Benson, Kassian, Puljujavi etc. were deemed less worthy by the Kraken which likely isn’t a great sign).

    I can’t imagine Neal being taken in expansion – not without a deal being made with the Oilers adding real assets out.

    I don’t imagine

    Completely agree with all. But I wear the rosiest of rose coloured glasses. We’re due for a win… right? Right?!?!

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    I’m convinced the Seattle expansion draft will be like no other, given the current economic climate.

    Expansion rules state Seattle must select a minimum of 20 players from other teams being paid enough to hit the cap floor.

    I expect they will be very selective and will not select 30 players but will instead use their enormous cap space to sign players from the flood of free agents that are about to hit the market and will be able to sign them at bargain prices.

    If you’re thinking you’ll be able to entice them to take any cap dumps, I expect the price to be very dear.

    They will be the one team that will have the cap space and resources to actually benefitfrom the league economic turn down.

    (Ottawa could benefit from this but likely doesn’t have the responses to take full advantage)

    Seattle has to select 30 players, one from each team.

    Only 20 of them have to be under contract – there can be 10 RFAs and UFAs – those 20 have to get them to 60% of the previous year’s cap limit, essentially the cap floor..

    I suppose they could choose 10 UFAs they have no intent on signing but I don’t imagine that will happen and I don’t imagine ownership wants to come in the league circumventing the integrity of the expansion draft and pissing off the Board of Governors and the league.

  94. jp says:

    who: You are a bigger believer than me.
    I guess we’ll see.

    I mean, I wouldn’t bet on him scoring 26, but I also wouldn’t be overly surprised.

    Unless/until Holland adds a substantial LW, Neal is in line to get at least some top 6 ABs.

  95. pts2pndr says:

    who: Wouldn’t the buy-out be done by the time you need to resign Draisaitl?

    If you buy him out with two years remaining I believe the buy out is basically for double years remains on the contract so in Neals case it would be four years.

  96. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    Nice post(s).

    Holtby does look better in that light. Maybe a one year show me contract is a decent bet.

    May I ask where you found those stats? Could be handy for evaluation purposes.

  97. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    kanatacus,

    Benning’s fancy stats shine like a diamond when he’s in the top-4.

    Limited minutes, sure, but he kills it every time by the numbers.

    I do agree, he *looks out of place but I wish Playfair would bump him up for a fair stint so we can suss out the variance between the looks and the maths.

  98. who says:

    pts2pndr: If you buy him out with two years remaining I believe the buy out is basically for double years remains on the contract so in Neals case it would be four years.

    And doesn’t Draisaitl have 5 years left?
    So if you buyout Neal after next season, don’t the buy-out and Draisaitl contract end at the same time?

  99. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: I mean, I wouldn’t bet on him scoring 26, but I also wouldn’t be overly surprised.

    Unless/until Holland adds a substantial LW, Neal is in line to get at least some top 6 ABs.

    His shooting percentage last season was 17%
    His career average is 11.7%.

    It would be prudent to expect a major regression.

  100. godot10 says:

    John Chambers: Braden Holtby won the Stanley Cup two seasons ago. Seems near impossible to do that if he wasn’t good.

    The following season he was .911 and this past season he struggled.

    There is a shade of truth to your statement, and a healthy dose of hyperbole.

    Holtby won the Stanley Cup coming out of the bullpen. He had lost the starting job because he had had a bad season. Three mediocre to poor regular seasons in a row, and two poor playoffs after his very good relief performance to win the Cup.

  101. Eh Team says:

    OriginalPouzar: JJ Khaira should grab a 3rd round pick – Matty Benning is more valuable than a 3rd rounder, at least in my opinion.

    If JJ could get a 3rd round pick he would have been traded a long time ago. He’s scored 21 goals in the last three years and been significantly outscored at 5×5. That’s the definition of a replacement player.

  102. godot10 says:

    rocket:
    If a 3rd line center is of the “highest” priority Craig Smith is a right hand shot who is testing free agency.In his career he is always over 50% corsi.Getting him would mean paying less for a goalie…. Have to determine what is the priority…

    Craig Smith isn’t a centre.

  103. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    jp,

    Nice post(s).

    Holtby does look better in that light.Maybe a one year show me contract is a decent bet.

    May I ask where you found those stats?Could be handy for evaluation purposes.

    He’s certainly not without redeeming qualities. He’s going to get paid though, I have a hard time seeing the price/term coming down enough to call him a good bet. I’d expect a rebound from .897 this season for sure though.

    The stats are from Natural Stat Trick. Players>Goalies
    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=g

  104. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: His shooting percentage last season was 17%
    His career average is 11.7%.

    It would be prudent to expect a major regression.

    Are McDavid and Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins still going to be on the OIlers power play? That is why Neal’s shooting percentage popped.

  105. godot10 says:

    jp: He’s certainly not without redeeming qualities. He’s going to get paid though, I have a hard time seeing the price/term coming down enough to call him a good bet. I’d expect a rebound from .897 this season for sure though.

    The stats are from Natural Stat Trick. Players>Goalies
    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=g

    Holtby has had one hot streak in the last three seasons. Fortunately it was in the playoffs two years ago.

  106. kanatacus says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    kanatacus,

    Benning’s fancy stats shine like a diamond when he’s in the top-4.

    Limited minutes, sure, but he kills it every time by the numbers.

    I do agree, he *looks out of place but I wish Playfair would bump him up for a fair stint so we can suss out the variance between the looks and the maths.

    I’m purely going on the visual but I’ll take your word for it on the stats. I just remember Bear stood out in his cup of coffee 2 years ago by eye and Jones did last year in the top pairing when Klefbom was out (until he faded from fatigue). Whenever Benning is pushed up the lineup he does look a bit out of place. But results are what matter. I like him and his grit/heart but I’d rather Holland gets someone more talented for the top pairing if Larsson is traded and Bouchard needs playtime but on the 3rd pairing. We don’t need to Shultz his career path.

  107. jp says:

    godot10: Holtby won the Stanley Cup coming out of the bullpen.He had lost the starting job because he had had a bad season.Three mediocre to poor regular seasons in a row, and two poor playoffs after his very good relief performance to win the Cup.

    How does one play 23 games and get 16 wins “in relief”?

  108. jp says:

    godot10: Holtby has had one hot streak in the last three seasons.Fortunately it was in the playoffs two years ago.

    I’m not at all suggesting signing Holtby is a good idea. AT ALL.

    I replied to a post (and noticed yours earlier) claiming (incorrectly) that he played for a good defensive team. He does not. It probably contributed a little to his poor numbers.

    He also isn’t the worst goalie in the league, but I hope Holland doesn’t pay for Cup winner.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    jimdewger: The Oilers moved players out without a replacement for too long. I sure hope that in the case of a Benning for a pick move, that there is a contingency plan for injuries on the right side.

    I know Holland wants draft picks but, unless a legit 2nd round pick (1st half of round even) is available, I don’t see this being the place to try and get the pick and “save cap” – the Oilers have 4 available right shot D, including Bouchard.

    Sure, if Benning is a piece of a trade to get a legit 3C or something, sure, but not for a 3rd round – in my opinion.

  110. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: His shooting percentage last season was 17%
    His career average is 11.7%.

    It would be prudent to expect a major regression.

    Yeah, Godot fielded that one.

    Neal’s 5v5 shooting % was actually well below his career mark (likely due for a rebound lol).

    And he’s a part of the best PP in the world.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Wouldn’t the buy-out be done by the time you need to resign Draisaitl?

    The most important years for the Oilers, as it relates to McDavid and Drai, are the couple years leading up to their contracts expiring – those are the years its important to be legit contenders. Having the team winning and rolling as they are needing to be re-upped – that’s the time. Not that now isn’t important but dead cap space in 4-5 years from now is a no no in my opinion.

  112. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Unless Holland isn’t expecting Bouchard to play above the 3rd pairing in the next 5 seasons, I don’t see how such an extension makes sense.

    Having Larsson to mentor Broberg and possibly Samorukov on the third pairing would be money well spent assuming that he fits in the cap moving forward. He would also be injury cover for the right side top four.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    New roster with some small tweaks around the edges, and using blog favourites to fill holes and recoup some assets.Basically a response to the roster posted in today’s blog by our host.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/371785

    Love lots of it including Rusty for Rannta (something I threw out like a month plus ago before it became know that Kuemper could be available) and Chiasson for Bjork.

    The re-sign prices are all perfect, in my opinion (and, yes, Kuffner is a no-brainer – not sure about day even with the lack for RD options).

    Hutchinson as the AHL 3rd stringer is something I almost expect.

    Things I don’t like:

    – not sold on Larsson at 3C and almost think I’d give Haas a shot – not terrible though
    – I still don’t see the point of Benning for a 3rd but I think I’m in the minority (don’t know enough about Holzer)

    Need to find a way to get Benson on the roster (i.e. no Larsson signing…..).

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: And you see him scoring 26 next year?

    Seems unlikely but 19 goals in 55 games is a 26 goal pace……

    He was also clearly playing hurt for a significant portion of those 55 games.

    On the other hand, I don’t think its reasonable to think he’ll play 82 healthy games.

    No, don’t expect him to score 26 but I wouldn’t put another 20 out of the question

  115. pts2pndr says:

    who: And doesn’t Draisaitl have 5 years left?
    So if you buyout Neal after next season, don’t the buy-out and Draisaitl contract end at the same time?

    You could be correct and if so not as big a problem but given the flat cap and with a number of contracts coming due Ie Nuge, Yamamoto and money required to improve the roster, dead cap space is extremely restrictive.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Just wanted to say thanks for the continual prospect update posts.Really simplifies things not having to parse the entire Interwebs on my own haha

    No probs – i look forward to doing it.

    Of course, I could wait for the games to finish and post one update with a full summary but that takes my fun away (although would please many others, I’m sure).

  117. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Unless Holland isn’t expecting Bouchard to play above the 3rd pairing in the next 5 seasons, I don’t see how such an extension makes sense.

    Well, if Nurse is going for OEL this year, and Klefbom is going for assets in two years. Jones and Bouchard are dirt cheap for two more years. Bear will likely be reasonably cheap for two years on a transition deal. And Broberg will be cheap when Klefbom is gone.

    I’m not advocating 4 x $4 million for Larsson…I’m just suggesting it is just the type of thing that Kenny is prone to doing.

    i.e. It depends on his overall plan for the D in the short, medium, and long term.

    In some scenarios, Larsson could be a part of the plan on all three timescales.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yegfoundation,

    Is there something larger you need to get off your chest? I note that the only thing that has given you enough reason to post today was a personal matter with a poster and nothing to do with the the blog contact, hockey, the Oilers are anything to engage in conversation.

  119. flyfish1168 says:

    Harpers Hair: Quinn Hughes scored 5G 28A 33P in 32 games in his second season at the University of Michigan.

    Jack Rathbone scored 7G 24A 31P in 28 games in his second season at the D factory at Harvard.

    Like Hughes, Rathbone is a plus skating puck mover.

    Imagine if the Canucks end up with TWO of them.

    They haven’t had their bilateral hip surgery just yet. But it is coming

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Quinn Hughes scored 5G 28A 33P in 32 games in his second season at the University of Michigan.

    Jack Rathbone scored 7G 24A 31P in 28 games in his second season at the D factory at Harvard.

    Like Hughes, Rathbone is a plus skating puck mover.

    Imagine if the Canucks end up with TWO of them.

    Lots of things we can all imagine, or, I mean, fantasize about.

    Of course, Hughes is younger than Rathborne and was almost two years younger during those seasons you are comparing.

    Would you like to compare Bouchard’s offence in his last amateur season against, well, any other from the past decade – you’ll need to look back to Ryan Ellis’ numbers a decade ago.

    Rathborne could very well turn out to be great but he hasn’t “arrived early” and more than Bouchard.

    Anyways, I won’t derails tonight’s conversation with a repeat of last night so feel free to get in the last word on the subject.

  121. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    jp,

    Thank you.

    I never seem to have good luck with that site for skaters, but it’s probably just me needing to spend a bit more time playing around and getting familiar.

  122. OriginalPouzar says:

    kanatacus: Yes, I like Benning but he’s in Bouchard’s potential slot.What do you need to sign him to so he fills the requirement? 2×2 million?Do you want your 7d at 2×2 mil?Because if Benning is replacing Larsson in the top 4, that’s a step in the wrong direction IMO.He (Benning) hasn’t really been that great when he’s been pushed up to top 4D.

    The contract could be 2 X $2M – I am hopeful Holland will be able to to get him to take a bit of a haircut but even at $2M I am comfortable – he is value for that in my mind.

    I don’t believe the room needs to be made for Bouchard – I very much think he’s NHL ready but he’s yet to prove that. He should have every opportunity to come in to camp and battle with Benning for the 3RD spot. If he earns the opening night lineup spot – great. I’m highly confidant each of Bear, Larsson and Bouchard (or Benning) are not going to play 82 games next season (or whatever amount of games the team plays).

    Both the 3RD and the 4RD will be needed.

  123. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks.

    Larsson has actually proven himself viable as a 3C per Woodguy’s blog analysis on his blog, Because Oilers. Haas, not so much. I’d prefer fewer question marks moving forward. Haas may well prove fit for duty but until he does I’d rather see him take someones job.

    I’d prefer to keep Benning as well. The reason for moving him was to add a pick at the draft (would prefer a second, but I figured I’d just go with LT’s valuation) and to recoup some salary. Might have negative expansion draft consequences though.

    Benson could replace either of Nygard or Haas, just like Bouchard would at some point replace Holzer who’d be paid essentially for PB duty until injury.

    Hutchinson or similar as 3G is important to prevent the likes of Skinner being in the lineup before he’s ready.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    rocket:
    If a 3rd line center is of the “highest” priority Craig Smith is a right hand shot who is testing free agency.In his career he is always over 50% corsi.Getting him would mean paying less for a goalie…. Have to determine what is the priority…

    I don’t think Smith has played center in a long time though….

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    On CapFriendly I’ve been seeing a lot of 4th or 5th round pick trades for James Reimer.

    Thoughts?

    I had posted about Reimer a few weeks ago in a post-buyout scenario (as there has been speculation).

    If Carolina would retain 1/3.

  126. Glovjuice says:

    Oblivious narcissism is the worst human character phenotype and it runs rampant here day after day after day. Please make it stop.

  127. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: With respect, to me, any thoughts on potential selling of an asset at the trade deadline, should have zero effect on off-season team building.

    I can’t imagine any possible scenario with Ken Holland is looking to sell-off any NHL d-man, let alone a veteran hard-nosed d-man, with the playoffs in sight.

    The Oilers had depth at D heading in to the trade deadline this season and Holland still went and acquired more.

    Even if Rusty could fetch a 2nd rounder at the deadline, I think there is all but zero chance that Holland sells him unless the season has gone off the rails.

    The difference as I see it is this year Russel is not insurance. By the time the trade deadline rolls around barring injuries the Oilers will have a solid six D with Lagesson a number seven. The SHL and KHL seasons will be complete and or near completion which should make 2-3 more D available if required. It in all probability will make Russel expendable. Getting nothing for Russel and or giving up an asset to recover some cap space is questionable if you can move Benning for an asset and sufficient cap space to get by until the trade deadline.

  128. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yegfoundation,

    Is there something larger you need to get off your chest?I note that the only thing that has given you enough reason to post today was a personal matter with a poster and nothing to do with the the blog contact, hockey, the Oilers are anything to engage in conversation.

    Maybe he has a man crush on Holtby not that there’s anything wrong with that.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I mean, I wouldn’t bet on him scoring 26, but I also wouldn’t be overly surprised.

    Unless/until Holland adds a substantial LW, Neal is in line to get at least some top 6 ABs.

    He likely does but, based on this past season’s results, its not a good idea.

    He and Leon were 0-6 in goals in 65 minutes. I know, only 65 minutes but my goodness – that’s worse than Nygard/McDavid was good (in 50 minutes).

    McDavid’s GF% was also down with Neal than without.

    Of course, Neal did play part of the season hurt but still.

    I would give Benson, AA, Nygard chances on the top 6 LW prior to Neal, at this point.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: Having Larsson to mentor Broberg and possibly Samorukov on the third pairing would be money well spent assuming that he fits in the cap moving forward. He would also be injury cover for the right side top four.

    Sure, I agree, however I don’t think $4M X 4 for Larsson fits the cap going forward.

  131. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: The most important years for the Oilers, as it relates to McDavid and Drai, are the couple years leading up to their contracts expiring – those are the years its important to be legit contenders. Having the team winning and rolling as they are needing to be re-upped – that’s the time. Not that now isn’t important but dead cap space in 4-5 years from now is a no no in my opinion.

    I think the most important years for Draisaitl and McDavid are already here. We have no idea if they will resign in Edmonton, so waiting till the last couple of years to convince them to stay seems foolish.
    How about if we try and compete in every year they are under contract?
    I’m pretty sure that’s what they would prefer.

  132. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lots of things we can all imagine, or, I mean, fantasize about.

    Of course, Hughes is younger than Rathborne and was almost two years younger during those seasons you are comparing.

    Would you like to compare Bouchard’s offence in his last amateur season against, well, any other from the past decade – you’ll need to look back to Ryan Ellis’ numbers a decade ago.

    Rathborne could very well turn out to be great but he hasn’t “arrived early” and more than Bouchard.

    Anyways, I won’t derails tonight’s conversation with a repeat of last night so feel free to get in the last word on the subject.

    Rathbone delayed his entry to Harvard to stay close to home with his artistic brother.

    What a bum.

  133. Harpers Hair says:

    Harpers Hair: Rathbone delayed his entry to Harvard to stay close to home with his artistic brother.

    What a bum.

    *autistic*

  134. who says:

    pts2pndr: You could be correct and if so not as big a problem but given the flat cap and with a number of contracts coming due Ie Nuge, Yamamoto and money required to improve the roster, dead cap space is extremely restrictive.

    Agreed on the dead cap space being restrictive. But if we get last year’s Neal again next year…….. , he’s already dead cap space.
    I thought Jonathan Willis did an excellent job illustrating where the buy-out sweet spot is. Basically, if you can replace Neal for less than 1.9 million you buy him out.
    I think you can.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr: The difference as I see it is this year Russel is not insurance. By the time the trade deadline rolls around barring injuries the Oilers will have a solid six D with Lagesson a number seven. TheSHL and KHL seasons will be complete and or near completion which should make 2-3 more D available if required. It in all probability will make Russel expendable. Getting nothing for Russel and or giving up an asset to recover some cap space is questionable if you can move Benning for an asset and sufficient cap space to get by until the trade deadline.

    The Oilers had that this year – they had a solid starting 6 with Jones as number 7 and Lagesson as number 8 and Holland still went out and acquired Mike Green. You could be right but I don’t see it happening – Holland showed us how much he values depth on defence as the playoffs approach.

  136. who says:

    Glovjuice:
    Oblivious narcissism is the worst human character phenotype and it runs rampant here day after day after day. Please make it stop.

    Oblivious narcissism. 😆.
    Great term. Perfectly descriptive.
    Can I call him ON from now on.

  137. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Rathbone delayed his entry to Harvard to stay close to home with his artistic brother.

    What a bum.

    Ok but no one gives two shits about the Canucks
    You should go to Canucks army
    I’m sure you’d feel right at home at the circle jerk there

  138. Ryan says:

    John Chambers: Holtby

    Goalies are interesting.

    There’s certainly huge market inefficiency in terms of how NHL teams manage their goalies.

    I had mentioned the concept of teams overpaying for average goaltending recently. Lowetide shortly after found the original Holland quote about it and used it in a post. I can never find it with my googling.

    I remember a few years back when the Stars had something like two below average goalies for 4.5-5 m each, both with term. It was crippling.

    It’s sort of like winter jackets. The best time to buy one is in the spring when you don’t need it. You’ll often pay 50% off of the retail price.

    Many teams seem to miss out on the sale when there’s a glut of goalies on the market. The supply-demand curve is prone to wild swings.

    Teams often lose their backup to cap issues and lack of room after their starter like Grubauer and Talbot (from NYR).

    By the way, Woodguy orchestrated the Talbot to Oilers trade and anyone telling you otherwise is lying.

    😉

    He did to my recollection write a post about Talbot as a trade target long before I heard any trade rumors.

    When they need one, they pay in full. either in trade or in term.

    The ‘old timey GM’ method is to look for a winner, a guy with a cup ring, a guy past his prime like Holtby, spill coffee over his recent season SV%, and pay him way too much money for way too many years.

    I doubt Holtby sign a ‘show me contract.’ He has a cup ring.

    Early in their careers, there’s risk in the lack of data. Past 30, there’s risk in injury and the aging curve along with the financial cost in paying for more data (longer track record).

    Goalies don’t actually get better past 25. The decline is gentle until 29 then bends more severely past that.

    Now, I am not knocking Holtby specifically because I don’t watch him and haven’t look at his underlying numbers, but signing a 31–year-old goalie with a cup ring coming off one bad and another mediocre season is fraught with danger since you’re going to be tying up dollars and term. There’s a lot of risk in the contract.

    Like me, my buddy Joe Sakic also buys his winter coats in the spring time.

    Grubauer for a second and Francouz, whom he was smart to play in the AHL instead of rushing to the NHL for no asset and little contract risk.

    That’s the key with Joe’s moves is that he didn’t take on a massive amount of contract risk, he got goalies under thirty, and the cap is hit is cheap.

    With the Oilers salary cap structure, they can’t afford to take on risk in big contracts during the McDavid years.

  139. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Does anyone have a link to Evolving Wild’s contract predictions or at least what they have for Holtby?

  140. Material Elvis says:

    Ryan,

    Could have sworn it was Gmoney who was pumping Talbot’s tires back then.

  141. pts2pndr says:

    who,

    I agree that the best move may be a buyout. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

  142. Ryan says:

    Material Elvis:
    Ryan,

    Could have sworn it was Gmoney who was pumping Talbot’s tires back then.

    Here was the article.

    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2015/05/talbot-might-be-new-schneider-if-he-is.html?q=Cam+Talbot

  143. pts2pndr says:

    Ryan,
    Your last paragraph is our reality due the new flat cap reality.

  144. Material Elvis says:

    Ryan: Here was the article.

    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2015/05/talbot-might-be-new-schneider-if-he-is.html?q=Cam+Talbot

    Ah ha. Woodguy strikes again. He’s everywhere.

  145. who says:

    pts2pndr:
    who,

    I agree that the best move may be a buyout. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

    Next year Russell is off the cap. So is Chiasson. Poulliot is off the books, Sekeras buyout drops by a million. That’s about 8.5 million in cap space.
    A Neal buyout would add another 4 million. You could do some damage with that kind of cap space.

  146. John Chambers says:

    Ryan,

    Haha, clever write-up.

    Chayka was a lousy GM, but he did get the discount coats gamut. MacT had attempted to do the same thing trading for Scrivens and Fasth, but some discounted jackets are good and some not so.

    I don’t mind paying for good goaltending. If they give Holtby $4.5M I won’t piss and moan like we know others will. It wasn’t long ago he was a back-to-back Vezina candidate and then cup winning goalie. Can’t say why his play slipped but he has been elite and perhaps could again.

    What I can’t abide is giving a goalie term. One year of Holtby might be okay, two could work out, and three or more would be a fucking shame.

    He’ll be better than Mike Smith anyhow.

  147. Ryan says:

    John Chambers:
    Ryan,

    Haha, clever write-up.

    Chayka was a lousy GM, but he did get the discount coats gamut. MacT had attempted to do the same thing trading for Scrivens and Fasth, but some discounted jackets are good and some not so.

    I don’t mind paying for good goaltending. If they give Holtby $4.5M I won’t piss and moan like we know others will. It wasn’t long ago he was a back-to-back Vezina candidate and then cup winning goalie. Can’t say why his play slipped but he has been elite and perhaps could again.

    What I can’t abide is giving a goalie term. One year of Holtby might be okay, two could work out, and three or more would be a fucking shame.

    He’ll be better than Mike Smith anyhow.

    Thanks.

    It doesn’t look like Evolving Wild does contract estimates for goalies.

    In searching for the 2020 list, I came across this article.

    https://theathletic.com/1786155/2020/09/09/top-20-nhl-ufas-analysis-projections-and-thoughts-on-the-class-of-2020/

    I don’t know if you subscribe.

    Dom has this:

    “ The Capitals’ starter will probably earn the largest contract from this free agency, something that would likely be a costly mistake based on his play over the last few seasons, especially this past year…
    Over the last three seasons, he ranks 39th in goals saved above expected at minus-five. It’s a long way away from the Vezina calibre play from 2014-to-2017 where he ranked second with 56 goals saved.“

    I think there’s a good chance and Dom seems to possibly agree that Holtby gets three years or more.

    That’s the problem. We’ll see. Never underestimate the term a GM will give to a goalie with a cup ring.

  148. jp says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    jp,

    Thank you.

    I never seem to have good luck with that site for skaters, but it’s probably just me needing to spend a bit more time playing around and getting familiar.

    Yeah keep fiddling. It’s a great resource but it definitely takes a while to know how to get what you’re looking for. And I’m sure folks here would be happy to answer questions if they arise.

  149. jp says:

    Glovjuice: Oblivious narcissism is the worst human character phenotype

    I’d disagree.

  150. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: He likely does but, based on this past season’s results, its not a good idea.

    He and Leon were 0-6 in goals in 65 minutes.I know, only 65 minutes but my goodness – that’s worse than Nygard/McDavid was good (in 50 minutes).

    McDavid’s GF% was also down with Neal than without.

    Of course, Neal did play part of the season hurt but still.

    I would give Benson, AA, Nygard chances on the top 6 LW prior to Neal, at this point.

    Those numbers (and the underlying ones) with Draisaitl were putrid. I can’t disagree there (but like you say, small sample).

    I was thinking about McDavid though. They played 226 minutes, didn’t get much done and got outscored. But shots and scoring chances say they actually played well.

    McDavid was 54.5% xGF with Neal. That was the best of any Oiler to play more than 54 minutes (Nygard) with McDavid. The only other Oiler skaters with even 50% xGF in more than 54 minutes were Benning (53.0%) and Jones (50.8%).

    That to say, I think if Neal-McDavid get another shot together it very well may go better.

    It’s clear, I think, that Tippett and Holland don’t think the player is a washed up 4th liner. I’m pretty sure they’d give him a shot or two to stick in the top 6 before Nygard or Benson. I can’t say I disagree (though Nygard’s numbers are intriguing, and I agree with you Benson likely should be on the roster somewhere).

  151. jp says:

    Ryan,

    John Chambers,

    Nice posts both.

    I don’t mind Holtby at all per se, and definitely think he should rebound at least some from this past season.

    I agree with Ryan though, Holtby won’t be taking a discount deal. And it’s going to be awfully difficult for him to live up to the deal it seem’s he’s going to get (both term and dollars).

  152. John Chambers says:

    Holtby with term = Khabibulin II

    Decade of Darkness, Roaring 20’s edition

  153. who says:

    Ryan: Thanks.

    It doesn’t look like Evolving Wild does contract estimates for goalies.

    In searching for the 2020 list, I came across this article.

    https://theathletic.com/1786155/2020/09/09/top-20-nhl-ufas-analysis-projections-and-thoughts-on-the-class-of-2020/

    I don’t know if you subscribe.

    Dom has this:

    “ The Capitals’ starter will probably earn the largest contract from this free agency, something that would likely be a costly mistake based on his play over the last few seasons, especially this past year…
    Over the last three seasons, he ranks 39th in goals saved above expected at minus-five. It’s a long way away from the Vezina calibre play from 2014-to-2017 where he ranked second with 56 goals saved.“

    I think there’s a good chance and Dom seems to possibly agree that Holtby gets three years or more.

    That’s the problem. We’ll see. Never underestimate the term a GM will give to a goalie with a cup ring.

    Dom also didn’t have Draisaitl in the top 5 for the Hart trophy.
    I’m not arguing for Holtby, just saying that rating players solely with his numbers may result in a few misses.

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Those numbers (and the underlying ones) with Draisaitl were putrid. I can’t disagree there (but like you say, small sample).

    I was thinking about McDavid though. They played 226 minutes, didn’t get much done and got outscored. But shots and scoring chances say they actually played well.

    McDavid was 54.5% xGF with Neal. That was the best of any Oiler to play more than 54 minutes (Nygard) with McDavid. The only other Oiler skaters with even 50% xGF in more than 54 minutes were Benning (53.0%) and Jones (50.8%).

    That to say, I think if Neal-McDavid get another shot together it very well may go better.

    It’s clear, I think, that Tippett and Holland don’t think the player is a washed up 4th liner. I’m pretty sure they’d give him a shot or two to stick in the top 6 before Nygard or Benson. I can’t say I disagree (though Nygard’s numbers are intriguing, and I agree with you Benson likely should be on the roster somewhere).

    I do tend to gloss over “expected numbers” as i prefer to use what actually happened. I know, intellectually, the danger of that in small sample sizes and have been told that, in such small samples, shot/possession numbers are more predictive than goals but, at the same time, goals are what matters (and 230 minutes isn’t a tiny small size like 60 minutes is).

    I don’t disagree with your premise above although, at the end of the day, do we think the coaching staff sees more in Neal? I mean, he did start the playoffs on a “heavy fourth line”, which may have been the 3rd line, and wasn’t moved up until injury to Ennis forced a move.

    Of course, I agree, Neal will be in the mix for the job – I just hope the likes of Benson (and even Nygard) get a real shot as well.

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