In the late summer of 2016, Travis Yost made an appearance on the Lowdown. After an especially awful food take, Yost said “the thing about this Oilers team is they have McDavid and that combined with goaltending might get you into the playoffs.”
It happened just that way in 2016-17. Or did it? What about the defense that season? How good was it? Who did the hard work? How far is the current team away from having the same calibre defense?
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: Oilers prospects poised to benefit after offseason news.
- New Lowetide: Oilers bring back Mike Smith for another year.
- New Lowetide: Oilers sign Tyson Barrie to a team-friendly deal.
- New Lowetide: Oilers sign Kyle Turris, Tyler Ennis in early hours of free agency.
- Lowetide: Ken Holland will need to be creative in free agency
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi signing overshadows a strong day for Oilers at draft
- Lowetide: Oilers draft Dylan Holloway on Day 1, with trades possible Wednesday
- Lisa Dillman: Dylan Holloway could be a ‘difference-maker’ for the Oilers
- Eric Duhatschek: Connor McDavid’s positive COVID-19 test stirs debate about the next NHL season
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers could benefit both now and in the future by adding a right-shot defender
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s work week: Get good players, keep good players
- Lowetide: Oilers’ defence prospects are pushing, and changes are coming
- Lowetide: Potential trades and partners for the Oilers’ offseason
- Lowetide: Dealing a defenceman? Taking stock of Oilers’ blueline assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oilers GM Ken Holland on improving internally, the flat cap and goaltending
- Lowetide: Oilers Top 20 Prospects, Summer 2020
2016-17 VERSUS ELITES (PUCK IQ)
This is the defensive group Todd McLellan used during the 2016-17 season. There is a clear top 4-D, veterans all and the minutes are divided basically even between the top two pairings.
Benning, Davidson, Gryba and Nurse all played a significant amount against elites at five on five.
Terrific goal differential at the top here, Klefbom-Larsson are on a romp. Notice Russell’s line here, he was fourth among the top-four in DFF% but first in GA/60. Russell defends too much but he and Sekera were an effective tandem in 2016-17.
2019-20 VERSUS ELITES (PUCK IQ)
Unlike the 2016-17 team, led at the top by veterans, this group pushed rookie Ethan Bear into a feature role. He performed admirably, but trying it two years in a row—and that will happen with Klefbom’s injury—is unwise. Coach Tippett didn’t trust his third pair like McLellan did in 2016-17, the No. 5 man here played one minute less than in the playoff year. That may be a reason for Benning’s exit.
THE 2020-21 PAIRINGS
I’ve been thinking about the best way to deploy this defense next year, and have decided Caleb Jones should play with the veteran Adam Larsson. If you have Nurse—Bear and get the results above, you can live with them. Jones—Larsson will rely on the veteran’s savvy and the young man’s skating and passing skills. That leaves Russell—Barrie as the third pairing, and hopefully they can close the gap and take on more of the load. I don’t believe Russell can play big minutes anymore. Jones is the key, pretty sure.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY, BRUCE
I’ve made many friends since starting this blog, some of you are many miles away and my mind’s eye conjures up the image of you. Leadfarmer types his comments into this section of the internet from a rich and beautiful study, with books lining each wall and a massive photo of Queen Elizabeth behind him. Original Pouzar writes on his phone while waiting for his next client. DSF wears a captain’s hat and owns a pipe, looks into the lagoon for a few minutes before typing. Bendelson is wise and humble, and one of two people on this blog who know what CanCon is. Godot plays chess in the park.
Then there’s a group who I have met, and know enough about to have an educated guess when it comes to typing comments into this section. Woodguy types from his phone hurriedly, which explains his spelling and his baffling inability to know the handedness of all living creatures. Clarkenstein owns a mountain and has 400 cars parked in his cave. PDO brings passion to everything.
Then there’s Bruce McCurdy. There are over 10,000 “McCurdy” references in the comments section of this blog. That isn’t Bruce commenting 10,000 times, a lot of those hits are people responding to what he wrote. Bruce is insightful, funny and has a tremendous memory, so he informs and inspires with his presence. I picked a random post from 2012:
This is Bruce’s birthday. He is a gift to all of us, an Oilers and hockey Smithsonian brought to life, and a funny, caring person too. We have met some great people in the course of this blog’s existence, and Bruce is a dear one. Happy birthday, Bruce! You are now legal everywhere!
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on the Lowdown, as we hit the ground running at 10, TSN1260. Tom Gazzola from TSN and NHL network will join me to piece together the Oilers 2020-21. Paul Sir from The Basketball Show and Basketball Canada will join us at 11 to discuss Lebron’s place in NBA history. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
I’m always amazed at the amount of non-hockey related expertise on this board. I had no idea you were a medical doctor.
Thanks for the detailed explanation.
New for The Athletic: If the Oilers want to keep the Draisaitl line intact, Dave Tippett will need to be creative in finding two wingers for Connor McDavid. Ennis? Kassian? Or does Ken Holland have something else in mind?
https://theathletic.com/2135748/2020/10/14/lowetide-finding-connor-mcdavids-optimal-linemates-among-2020-21-oilers/
Your question may be rhetorical because I think you know the answer already. Anyway, many years ago I did a regression analysis between QoC and shots and found that QoC had a positive effect on shot differentials. Surely, a counterintuitive result.
The reason is that quality of competition is not independent of quality of teammates. The players who play the toughest competition do so with the best teammates. Moreover, they only play the toughest competition about 30 % of the time but they play with the best teammates all the time (especially forwards).
Now this is in general, of course, which means the only way to use QoC is on an individual and contextual basis.
Even then, though, it is hard to know whether you are measuring talent or teammates.
Speaking of Benson, he had a primary assist in the GCK Lions 2-1 loss yesterday.
I also ofc don’t know it’s his AC-joint that’s the issue it’s just the most common spot in athletes.
There are a couple of routes you can go with arthritis and one is surgery. You first try with anti-inflammatory drugs, sometimes cortison injections and physio. If it’s due to wear, tear and old age the arthritis can be located in a couple of places in the shoulder and depending on where there are different surgeries, one being arthroplasty which isn’t really an option for an athlete at least to my knowledge.
In athletes the first step is similar but the surgical route is different. Arthritis in the shoulder of an athlete tends to be secondary to an earlier shoulder injury, just like Klef had in his D+1 season, it’s usually the AC-joint in the shoulder that’s affected and what you do is you remove a part of the clavicle to avoid bones grinding against each other causing pain. It can either be done via arthroscopy, which is less invasive and allows for quicker recovery but you might not be able to remove enough bone. Or you can do open surgery which allows you to remove more bone but the rehab process is longer. I assume the surgery he did a few years ago was arthroscopic and they are now contemplating open surgery.
I’m not an orthopedic surgeon, a mere ER doc who dabbles in sports medicine with my own sports team, so not completely updated on the different surgical methods but I think those are the options available. Lot happening in the field of sports medicine and they’re developing more efficient methods all the time. Injuries that were career ending just a few years ago can be treated with great results today so maybe they have something completely different in mind for Klef.
An album from 1980 called Smallcreep’s Day by Mike Rutherford. The then newly-reduced trio that remained in Genesis all did solo albums around that time, with Phil Collins’ Face Value hitting it big.
Yes.
Personally, I like to use %TOI vs Elites from PuckIQ and then look at overall DFF% and other results through that lens.
Bruce McCurdy,
All the best to you Bruce. Very much appreciate your comments here and your writing at CoH.
I don’t recall if you’ve ever said whether you’re a townie or a bayman but I also appreciate our shared roots.
Cheers and happy birthday to you.
Cool, I didn’t know that. Any idea if he’s been a PKer in Karpat?
If so then it might make sense. If not, well DSF (the decidedly skeptical one) is probably right.
That said, I’m kinda expecting more PK out of Draisaitl and Yamamoto (if Nuge is playing PP1, PK1/2 and 5v5 with Draisaitl/Yamamoto, I don’t see why the other 2 can’t PK as well). Not saying I like it, but maybe that would allow a bottom 6 that is >45%GF at 5v5?
The travel (for the Western teams at least) wouldn’t be much worse than the Pacific Division either.
Well most of us have assumed it’ll be Ennis joining the top 6 (Nuge, Yamamoto and Kassian are close to givens, though some will argue Kassian). I’ve certainly expected Ennis there as well, that’s why I took notice.
Absolutely Tippett is the coach but he and Holland seem to be on the same page for the most part. At the very least they have a good understanding of what the other is thinking. So maybe there’s something to this.
Is it Neal? (or Nygard, or Benson, though I think those 2 are very unlikely).
Is Holland expecting a trade for a top 6? (Kassian for a LW?)
Is Holland still expecting to sign a cheaper UFA? (Kahun, AA, Kovalchuk, Granlund. Heck, maybe Holland like Leivo half as much as LT does). A modest UFA could work using Klefbom’s LTIR, but that might be tempered by not knowing Klefbom’s plans.
Anyway, maybe it’s nothing. Maybe it’s something.
Glad you’re enjoying it Bruce. Given LT’s close coupling of music and hockey, you really have to tell us the new record!
Thanks. That was helpful.
HBD Bruce. Enjoy all your comments here
Thanks. A lot of moving parts this off season all around the league. In a normal off season I would think Holland is pretty much done other than a nibble around the edges but too many unsigned guys and teams in cap trouble to know how close we are to seeing the finished product.
There aren’t any quick fixes for osteoarthritis in a 28 yo athlete. There is physio and injections. Cartilage research is in it’s infancy. He’s too young for a joint replacement and I’m not sure a pro athlete has ever played with a shoulder arthroplasty? I’m not sure it would stand up to the impact taken in the game.
However, there are many pro athletes who have played with severe shoulder OA and had lengthy careers after the diagnosis. One famous Oiler is Mike Grier. Terrible shoulders right from the beginning. Gritty and quality player until the end.
It doesn’t have to be the end of his career.
So is Tyler
Bruce: Now that you’re 65, you’re posting the same thing twice? Man. Senior citizens gone wild!
Nuge, Yamamoto, Kassian and ___ (likely Neal or Nygard (has had success with McDavid).
At the end of the day, Coach T. is the coach, not Holland and Coach T. may very well put Puljujarvi and/or Ennis up there for day 1. I would imagine that, with current roster construction, Ennis and Nuge are the top 6 LWs.
A quick & entirely inadequate thank you to our eminent host & to so many commenters for your kind words. Officially a senior citizen today & apparently the whole world knows it. I have received well wishes by telephone, Skype, Twitter, Facebook, Messenger, text messages, email, this comments section, & even one actual person who had to drop something off & passed along his socially distant bon mots & a gift (a vinyl record!). Otherwise I received many GIFs. So many ways to make contact these days, even as in COVID times the virtual has largely overwhelmed the visceral.
Received messages via other media from longtime Lowetide commenters Shepso & Raven Talon 40. Awesome to hear from them, & from all of you. Thank you.
A quick & entirely inadequate thank you to our eminent host & to so many commenters for your kind words. Officially a senior citizen today & apparently the whole world knows it. I have received well wishes by telephone, Skype, Twitter, Facebook, Messenger, text messages, DM, email, this comments section, & even one actual person who had to drop something off & passed along his socially distant bon mots & a gift (a vinyl record!). Otherwise I received many GIFs. So many ways to make contact these days, even as in COVID times the virtual has largely overwhelmed the visceral.
Received messages via other media from longtime Lowetide commenters Shepso & Raven Talon 40. Awesome to hear from them, & from all of you. Thank you.
Not quite – having a player file for arbitration opens up the 2nd buyout window even if a contract is agreed to prior to arbitration.
Not necessarily as, when the dead cap hit of apx $2M hits is when BG’s new contract would kick in – unless this is a one year rental….
From listening to Holland the other day, he spoke about planning on not having Klef but that wasn’t a certainty and he could very well show up for camp ready to go (or words to that effect).
I got the feeling, that Klef was maybe going to give the shoulder a good long stretch of rest and healing time to see how it feels (prior to deciding on surgery) and maybe, as camp nears, if its feeling as good as ever, boom, he’s there.
Of course (a) that’s just what I sensed and could be way off and (b) that could lead to cap issues depending on if Holland spends more cap this off-season predicated on off-season LTIR usage (which is unlikely).
These numbers tell me that who you play with is waaay more influential than who you play against, unless your name is Hedman. Also that goalies have the most impact on GA numbers.
Thanks for passing on what Holland’s saying.
So if Ennis and Puljujarvi are in the bottom 6, who are the top 6 wingers?
Happy Birthday Bruce.
And thank you to all the contributors here that make this the best blog in hockey. Have learned much thru the years following the writers here.
Georgexs,
Of course it matters. It matters a great deal.
What you’re proving is that defensemen don’t drive GF% based on who they’re playing against. This is interesting but hardly a shocking revelation.
Show me a defenseman who plays big minutes on a crap team, and I’ll show you a defenseman whose GF% turns on a dime when they join a better club. Who you play WITH is just as vital, and you can’t explore one stat without the other.
Things can change in a heartbeat.
Remember when you were laughing at Benning yesterday and then he got Schmidt for a third round pick three years from now?
Calm your tits.
You are deliberately skipping the point
You said earlier that they can simply buy those two out
Buyout window is closed
The only way you can still buy players out is having a player go through arbitration which they are actively trying to avoid
Quality of line-mates also matter – perhaps Nurse is on against the elites with McDavid or Drai and company but on against the Grits with Sheahan and company?
I would expect an improvement in goal share for McDavid – hovering in and around 50% can’t be sustainable for him. The coach is clearly live to this and will work to ensure that both the top two lines are material outscoring lines.
Also, The Canucks really don’t need Sutter as they already have four centres.
He’s become a very expensive third line winger…easy to cut bait.
Neither Baertschi or Eriksson were integral parts of the team last season so buying them out is only dependent on whether or not the owner wants to pay for it.
If they don’t how the heck do they buy anyone out to fit Gallagher?
Who slots in where?
82 24-23-47
82 13-21-34
68 24-20-44
82 31-23-54
82 33-19-42
59 22-21-43
63 19-11-30
82 27-20-47
26 1-3-4
Well it won’t be better or the same because it was running at historical rates
Even with Klefbom back it would shave a few percentage points
Latest word is that Virtanen and the Canucks are trying to avoid arbitration and working on a contract.
Apparently both teams and players are really hoping to avoid arbitration this year because absolutely no one knows what the outcome might be and whether or not the arbitrators will take the Covid economy into account.
I am not convinced the PP will be better.
For sure it has the potential to be better but Klef did a great job distributing the puck this past season and, importantly, what changed from previous years, was that the PP 100% ran through the 3 elite forwards and there was MUCH less of a reliance on shots from the point and threats of shots from the point.
Now, Barrie can and should open up more options from the top – his shot (and right hand shot) is a weapon and he is a better offensive distributor than Klef.
It can and should work as long as they don’t revert to more reliance on shots from the point, etc. Yes, its an option and should be used to create even more issues for the defence but it shouldn’t be a primary focus of the PP.
It might get it done but Montreal has the same problem that Vancouver has.
No idea what the arbitration award will be and cap is too tight to be guessing.
Dell to the Leafs for $800K.
I can’t imagine he wouldn’t sign for that to be #2 on the Oilers as oppossed to #3 on the Leafs.
Seems Holland had no interest.
The cap implications are pretty easy to work around in this case because Gallagher’s cap hit is so low.
You have correctly identified acquisition cost as the real issue.
If reports are true that negotiations between Gallagher and the Habs have been acrimonious and have broken off, Montreal might be very motivated to move him since they have just acquired two right wingers who would likely slot above him the lineup.
I wonder if Jake Virtanen and a pick would get it done.
Thanks for that.
Ran off to Bali with bookje.
This is the correct answer.
And, of course, you have to see what the TOI was against those opposing cohorts.
Where the f**k is Bendelsen???
John Fogerty,..man. Thanks LT
Enjoy your day Bruce.
Well, I learned something today. I googled ‘surgery for arthritis’ and it is definitely a thing. I did not know that- maybe because everybody I know that has arthritis is old.
So it makes sense now and from a quick read it is a difficult call and not without danger of making things worse so I understand Klef wanting to take his time if this is what he is dealing with.
Way too young to have to deal with this.
You are most welcome. I am on a very tight schedule with little time to spare, but I do what I can.
Georgexs,
Interesting point.
There’s undoubtedly a correlation between QualComp and QualTeam, as those D probably play with top-line players against other top-line players, and play with bottom-6’ers against other bottom-6.
And then there are players like Matt Benning who don’t look anything special but outscore the competition…
In the end there are too many moving parts in hockey to have any single stat explain anything conclusively.