When your team doesn’t have a soft spot in the schedule, chances are your team is the soft spot in the schedule.
The Edmonton Oilers can’t make the playoffs in the first 15 games of this season, but they can play their way out of the post season in that time. The organization cannot be pleased with the first nine games of the year. The formula a year ago was outstanding special teams and the McDavid and Draisaitl lines scoring enough to overcome the five on five black hole on the bottom two lines. Take away the 2019-20 special teams advantage and you’re looking at this year’s model.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here is our recent work.
- New Lowetide: 3 auditioning Oilers who should be given time to find their groove
- Lowetide: It’s time for the Oilers to play prospect Evan Bouchard in NHL games
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi is ready for his No. 1 line audition
- Lowetide: Oilers’ scoring wing prospects having an impact.
- Lowetide: Oilers Kailer Yamamoto is the real deal.
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers risers and fallers: Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones among those stumbling early
- Lowetide: Oilers goaltending depth in a state of flux.
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 3 line has been a source of anxiety early this season
- Lowetide: Is this peak Connor McDavid?
- Lowetide: First impressions of Oilers after opener against the Canucks
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers opening night roster: A player-by-player breakdown
- Lowetide: Oilers risers and fallers and how they impact the opening night roster
- Lowetide: Will Ken Holland let it ride in goal for the Oilers this season?
- Lowetide: Oilers rookies with a chance to stick after one week of training camp
- Lowetide: 9 bold predictions for the Oilers’ season
- Lowetide: Early roster rumblings as Oilers open training camp
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers training camp: Forecasting the big roster battles
- Lowetide: Dylan Holloway’s world juniors work offers clues about Oilers future
THE OILERS IN MONTH NO. 1
- Oilers in October 2015: 3-6-0, goal differential -6
- Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
- Oilers in October 2017: 3-5-1, goal differential -8
- Oilers in October 2018: 4-3-1, goal differential -4
- Oilers in October 2019: 7-1-1, goal differential +10
- Oilers in Month 1 2021: 3-6-0, goal differential -6
I’m not sure we can name the least successful Oilers start during the McDavid era, but this year’s model is a contender. This team went 7-2-0 in October of 2016 running McDavid, a veteran top-4 blue and Cam Talbot stopping everything in sight. Media used to say ‘you can’t win long term that way’ but the 2016-17 crew sure won lots of games. Goalies stealing hockey games is a thing, but the Oilers don’t have that on the current roster.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MONTH NO. 1
- At home to: Vancouver, Vancouver (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: Montreal, Montreal (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: Toronto, Toronto, Winnipeg, Winnipeg (Expected 1-2-1) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: Toronto, Toronto, Ottawa (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 5-5-1, 11 points in 11 games
- Current results: 3-6-0, 6 points after nine games
The Oilers are in sixth place in a seven-team division and the team behind them is rebuilding a rebuild. This is pretty serious. Now. If you’ve read this far, I’ll tell you my opinion. The Oilers played pretty well last night, penalty kill and a goalie wobble aside. There are good signs. Jones-Larsson played well, Dominik Kahun had a fantastic chance and then set up Leon Draisaitl for another and Jesse Puljujarvi almost bulldozed a goal as well. Edmonton is still in ‘get good players, keep good players’ mode, and those three names (I wrote about above) are important to the Oilers future.
LINES LAST NIGHT
- Kahun-Draisaitl-Yamamoto played 8:57, going 4-2 shots, no goals, 5-3 HDSC and 9-7 Corsi five on five. Draisaitl had a couple of great early chances, plus set up Kahun for a dandy chance on a first-period two-on-one. Scored on his patented hammer from the right-side on the power play in the second period to give the team some life and scored again with the man advantage to tie it in the third period. Kailer Yamamoto had a point-blank chance in the second period, he has been quiet offensively the last few periods so that was an encouraging sign. KY spent 87 seconds on the penalty kill, failed to get the puck out and a goal against occurred afterward.
- Nuge-McDavid-Puljujarvi played 8:39, 3-3 shots, no goals, 3-1 HDSC and 9-4 Corsi five on five. I thought they played well but couldn’t get the puck across the line. Puljujarvi is the only member credited with a shot on goal. McDavid had two assists, both on the power play.
- Neal-Turris-Kassian had a fine night, playing 7:09, going 9-3 shots, no goals, 3-1 HDSC and 13-7 Corsi five on five. Kassian’s goal looked for a time like a monster tally for this team. Neal was shooting well and Turris picked up an assist on the 44 goal. On a night where two more points slipped away, the third line was a positive.
- Nygard-Shore-Archibald played 2:49, going 2-1 shots, no goals, 0-1 HDSC and 2-3 Corsi five on five. Solid in limited minutes. Nygard interrupted an early breakaway with his blinding speed, such a fine play. Snuck on to a line with Kassian-Turris for just under a minute. Shore spent two clean minutes on the PK. Archibald was -2 on the night and took a damaging penalty although the calls were kind of awful last night.
PAIRINGS AND GOALIE
- Nurse-Bear played 14:10, going 7-6 shots, 0-1 goals, 5-2 HDSC and 16-9 Corsi five on five. The goal against was the Simmonds power-play marker, not sure why this pairing received a minus for it. Nurse had an assist, battled all night and could skate with the buzzing Leafs. Bear had much the same experience, I thought his passing and decisions were solid. Hopefully the mystery minus one is expunged from the record.
- Jones-Larsson played 12:16, going 7-4 shots, 1-0 goals, 5-2 HDSC and 14-8 Corsi five on five. Those are rock solid numbers and I’m pleased to see the coach run with this pairing again. Larsson had an assist, Jones had a bunch of shot attempts and they played with Draisaitl’s and Turris lines. Spent six minutes against the Matthews line and kept them off the scoreboard. Larsson got dinged for a minus because the Nylander goal was scored the same second as the penalty ended. That’s unfair, but life goes on.
- Koekkoek-Barrie played 10:15, going 5-5 shots, 0-1 goals, 3-5 HDSC and 8-13 Corsi five on five. This pairing got caught on Koskinen’s mistake on the first GA, just bad timing, that’s all. Barrie had an assist on the second Draisaitl goal, he’s still ponderous on the power play. Needs some urgency. Koekkoek was solid to my eye.
- Mikko Koskinen stopped 23 of 27, .852. He made a grievous error on the first goal, was solid afterward. He needs a rest.
THE GOALIE
Everyone is mad about the goalie situation, but the original sin there was signing Mike Smith. You can blame the Carolina Hurricanes or the moon or demon liquor, but the play this offseason was to hire a more capable backup for Koskinen. He flubbed a goal last night but the blame goes to management.
I’M NOT LISTENING ANY MORE
I’ve absolutely had it and will not discuss it or entertain it one moment longer. EVERY TIME Connor McDavid expresses frustration or says something that can be conceived as negative, there are 5,000 voices hand wringing over his wanting to stay in Edmonton.
Stop it. It’s silly. McDavid’s row to hoe is not easy (he’s a championship player tied to a roster that is not) but he isn’t a teenage boy and he’s committed to his team. You can’t go through life worrying about every little thing. Do you you walk around on eggshells when your wife or girlfriend is in the room? Man up! It’s beneath you.
The roster is improving in fits and starts, the general manager did in fact gather some promising pieces (Kahun, Puljujarvi) who are matriculating and the coach is doing his best to find roles that suit them.
The goalie situation was mangled, concentrate your fury on that piece of the roster. Stop wasting your time on things you can’t control.
If, one day, Connor McDavid does ask for a trade, you’ll live through that and go on to live your life, as will McDavid. The Oilers general manager at that time will be charged with getting maximum return on that deal. It will represent an epic failure and we can talk about it should this happen.
But spending hours and weeks and years worrying about it? I think you should have more faith in Connor McDavid’s character and commitment to his teammates. Frankly, it’s disrespectful to the player.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s Friday, we kickstart the weekend beginning at 10 on TSN1260. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck Podcast will answer the question ‘is it time to panic?’ and we’ll chat about the passing of TML legend George Armstrong. Matthew Iwanyk from TSN1260 tackles the Oilers problem and his favourite Super Bowl memories. We’ll also spend a few minutes chatting about World Cup 2026. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Looks like Bouch has caught the virus, the walkabout virus.
test
If Tippett starts Grosenick we win tomorrow the first goal against against TO was mental fatigue Kosh needs to sit and watch a few games.
It was an off-night for Holloway in the faceoff circle as he was only 61% on 18 draws.
His 2G/2A, 4 SOG, +3 night puts him at 12 points in his last 5 games.
His 1.55 P/G on the season leads the team (over Caufield who is at 1.41 – albeit more goal heavy).
Wow, we might see him turn pro in a few months.
His season ends in 6wks, New 3rd line C after that? Only half kidding.
Unless he can make an impact to the NHL roster, I really don’t want to burn a year of the ELC at 19 – AHL please.
The theory holds that it’s something in the water.
Players never age well in Edmonton.
Cold weather joint pain? It’s a mystery…
Petry’s 33 and would be third on the Oilers in points this season.
If he had stayed an Oiler, his career would have ended four years ago, washed up or something.
and Holloway with his second of the game – now 2G/2A and on for 5 of the 6 goals.
Here is the beauty:
https://twitter.com/BadgerMHockey/status/1355351137730260992
At what point does Kenny H try and make a hockey trade?
Sakic has done it multiple times and he’s done it well …. Avs doing OK. CAROLINA has done it. Doing well. The list goes on … as long as PC isn’t orchestrating the deal, usually a GM can help his team …
McMuffin is in his 6th year. Now the ship can turn around, but as LT said …warning lights are flashing; waves are Crashing …
If KH “waits” til Broberg, Bouchard & Holloway are impact players (not just make the team); that could be 2 -3 yrs away ….
Does KH need to consider moving an asset for help TODAY. ?? I believe he does.
Said so in the offseason.
Should have traded the 1st round pick for an impact scoring winger rather than waiting 2-3 years for Holloway.
I wouldn’t be upset if they tried Nugent-Hopkins on a 3rd line and barely play a 4th but make it a speedy 4th line that forechecks hard for a minute or two a period.
Ennis / McDavid / Puljujarvi
Kahun / Draisaitl / Yamamoto
Benson / Nugent-Hopkins / Neal
Nygard (Chiasson, Khaira) / Haas (Turris, Khaira, Shore) / Kassian (Archibald, P Russell)
If Nugent-Hopkins is the 3rd line C, I’d bring up Benson as the LW. Give Benson an opportunity to succeed by giving him linemates that can actually score goals for once (something he’s never had in his entire career) and give Nuge & Neal an opportunity to score.
Play the top 2 lines about 19 minutes per game, play the 3rd line about 16 minutes per game and only play the 4th line to kill some penalties and for some energy here and there, about 6 minutes.
If they recalled Benson right now, and he was able to get to Edmonton tomorrow, he’d be available to the team for the game on February 15th – of course, he wouldn’t have skated for two weeks so would probably need at least 3-4 days, if not more. Actually, on that last point, if he came through Calgary (YYC), he may be able to skate after 6 days – not sure what the NHL protocol is given the federal gov’t mandatory 14 days would not apply – I could check but he’s not getting recalled imminently I don’t think
Hence why he should never have been re-assigned and hence why the flames will have an advantage with the Heat playing out of Calgary.
I would love to see it but that’s not happening. Way to thin on the wings, especially LW.
93-29-56
I blame the Demon Liquor ?
Holloway with another PP assist, he’s now 1G/2A through two (on for four of the 5 Wisconsin goals).
I expected the PK to come back down to the pack a bit this year but did think that a large part of the spike last year was systems-based. I’m sure that is the case but personnel matter and, last night, the PK from last season was missing:
Klefbom, Russell, Sheahan, Kahira
replaced with
Koekkoes, Jones, Shore, Turris, Yamamoto
Holloway wins the offensive zone draw, battles for the puck behind the net, circle around after gaining possession and gets it to the outside – a shot comes in and Holloway buries the rebound.
1G/1A in the first period.
Holloway with a first period assist on a Caufield PP goal.
His box-cars are certainly spiking!
The Oilers need to start a rebuild/retool. Seriously. I’m not kidding. Step 1 etc. Is trade Nuge, Bouchard, and the 2021 first or trade one of Draisaitl or McDavid. I’m not kidding.
I see your penchant for hot takes hasn’t abated during your absence.
Have any toothsome guancale recipes instead?
Sounds like a plan Ms Harpers,
Who are you targeting as a return for Connor?
Tkachuk, Giordano and a 1st?
Stanley Cup would be eminent
Dylan Holloway with an early assist.
He looks bigger in his Wisconsin uni for some reason
If a non-Mikko gets a game this weekend, it seems most think he should play against Ottawa on Sunday but, personally, if he’s going to play, I think I want him in for Saturday against T.O.
Don’t get me wrong, I am expecting the Oilers to win on Saturday but, damn, they HAVE to sweep Ottawa, don’t they?
Vancouver is only ahead of us in the standings because they just played 3 against the Sens – they took advantage and its imperative the Oilers do the same.
A well rested Mikko for Sunday/Tuesday against the Sens (and then 3 days off before the flames) – that I like.
I was thinking Grosenick on Saturday too.
But who knows, maybe Tippett just pushes through with Koskinen all the way.
He’s gotta steal a game for the team a some point, amiright??
Yeah, I think I’m on the same page. Against Toronto, there is a good chance they lose anyway with Koskinen in net. If it’s a 30% chance they win with Koskinen against Toronto, and a 75% chance they win with Koskinen against Ottawa, I think I play Koskinen for the sure points, and gamble with Grosenick against Toronto. But, that said, there is a team dynamic to consider. Are you sending the wrong message to your players by, in effect, telling them that you don’t think they’ll win against Toronto so we’re going to play our lesser goalie. It would suck to lose against Toronto with Koskinen in net in a close game, and then have Grosenick lose the game for them against Ottawa the next night. But, if you play Grosenick against Toronto and they lose to a better team (at this stage in the season at least) and then Koskinen gets a more likely win against the Sens the next night, you’ve come out with 2 points.
I don’t think it sends that message – for all we know Grosenick has a great game – one of this two NHL games in a 50 plus save shutout I believe. If anything, it should help the team commit to not making mistakes in the defensive zone or that lead to fast breaks.
– Figured I’d add some value, after that pessimistic take below: Here’s this week’s commentary I wrote for clients this week, as part of my day job, when I’m not worrying about our beloved (shitty) Team. I don’t think there is anything in this that LT won’t like:
For those that have been following this GameStop stock saga, it’s been a fascinating and shocking story: (LINK). It’s to my mind that a divergence of online communities’ power to disrupt and a reflection of the times. In a nutshell, this company GameStop, a close to a bankrupt company with an antiquated business model that sells video games through their store network, has seen its share price rise from a few dollars to over $400 per share (with incredible inter-day $150/share price movements). Their business model is akin to Blockbuster, not too long ago. Netflix and other online content providers completely displaced this market. Similarly, today, everyone downloads video games directly to their game console/computer.
GameStop’s volatility is the result in no small part of an online forum of Reddit users, in a community group called WallStreetBets, who have “bet” the opposite of what several large institutions are “betting.” It’s truly a David vs Goliath saga and something that the market has never seen before. Basically, large institutions have “shorted” the stock, predicting its demise. When you short a stock, you have to at some point buy back the shares. If the trade works, you buy them at a lower price and get to keep the difference. But if the stock price goes up, they lose money (and in this case, so far, a lot of money).
What’s unprecedented is the collective and coordinated role of individual investors making the opposite “bet”: They have been trading at incredible levels, resulting in a massive upswing of the stock. Even Elon Musk got into the action, tweeting out his support for the stock and the renegade group who have been buying the shares.
The bottom line is that this is being treated like a game, which can obviously be dangerous. While no one knows exactly how it ends (I suspect badly), from my perspective, it’s hard to root against them.
The interesting thing with GameStop is that it would appear for many of these participants, the fear of losing money seems to be missing. Many participants on these online chats highlight purchases they made at the high as a badge of honour and are cheered on by other members. The purchase is made as part of a ‘contribution to a cause.’ It’s argued that plenty of hedge funds, short sellers, billionaires, and institutional investors treat investing like a game, too. And every once in a while, they’re bound to lose, too, even to these little guys.
Back to the original premise: we don’t know what this means long-term, but if these online forums gain more momentum, it’s not hard to imagine other companies falling prey to the same set of circumstances.
The implication of this to the broader market is unknown. GameStop is not any different from a month or two ago in terms of its fundamentals. By any conventional measure, its share price has moved wildly for reasons other than changes in the company’s fundamentals.
Tesla has been near bankruptcy several times, heavily shorted by Wall Street, and saved by retail investors pushing back on the shorts, and Musk raising funds to survive by selling stock at elevated stock prices.
Tesla was effectively the first Gamestop, and is now near impregnable.
AMC (another GameStop) has issued shares at the elevated prices to save itself. GameStop could to, and should, to allow it reinvent itself.
The short interest in GameStop was over 125% of the float of GameStop stock. (Wall Street was “effectively” selling “counterfeit” GameStop shares).
Are you familiar with Mike Green (of Logica Funds) work on the impact of passive investing in distorting the markets? Or Christopher Cole (of Artermis Funds) work on volatility.and the fragility of the markets.
QE-for-the-banksters (and low interest rates and the Fed put of every financial asset) have been inflating asset prices for decades. We have an everything bubble.
With the massive QE post pandemic, there was finally some QE-for-the-people, funnelled from the central bank through the government to people.
So millenials living at home in the basement of their parents are getting “free” money to fight back against Wall Street. Many have nothing to lose. So they can take extreme asymmetric bets against Wall Street. If they lose, UBI is coming, and they are no worse off. If they win, they get financial independence and the ability to retire early (FIRE).
Blowback for the wealth inequality caused by QE and easy money, and Wall Street and the elite offshoring industry for thirty years.
The powers-that-be are in a no win scenario now. UBI can be weaponized against Wall Street. They will have to shut down the platforms like Robinhood just like they are throwing dissenting voices off social media.
The irony is that Robinhood is a product designed to sell the order flow from retail to the quant trading firms to front run retail.
The masses have turned a product where they were the product into a weapon.
By far, this is your best post Godot. Thank you?
I missed the UBI angle, that’s interesting thanks.
It’s a little like buying a lotto ticket and all for a good cause – sticking it to greedy hedge funds, lol.
What’s your opinion on Robinhood and other retail trading apps blocking (or being forced to block depending on who you ask) their users from buying more stocks but still allowing them to sell?
Doesn’t anybody do an honest days labour for a living anymore?
Like hockey players.
LT talked a bit about this today on The Lowdown.
I’m paraphrasing and apologize in advance for mangling a beautifully wrought sentiment, but his take was essentially that this is same as it ever was. As soon as the Plebs gain an advantage, the powers that be change the rules — to their own benefit, mind — leaving the wretched masses behind in their wake.
‘- If you give away something for free it’s your perogative to change the rules (which is in fact in the agreement that everyone who signed up to these trading platforms agreed to). Basically nothing is free in life and Robinhood et al lost a lot of money placing these stock trades for free so they stopped. At my shop and ever other one but the free ones clients could buy or sell. It’s just business. Nothing sinister: their sales promotion was too costly for them so they stopped for awhile. Billions of dollars of trade happened. Just not with them.
Thanks for replying.
It sure is fascinating. Why was Robinhood losing money? Seems like they make their money from sell their order streams to Citadel (and others) so that they can front run the orders (which I know is illegal but they have already been fined for that less than a year ago).
It sure is suspect that Citadel is Robinhood’s biggest customer. And then Citadel LLC (same founder as Citadel) bails out Melvin Capital. And then all of the sudden Robinhood users are struggling to buy stock that directly hurts Melvin Capital.
Last question, is it legal for Melvin Capital to publicly announce that they closed their short positions when it wasn’t possible according to volume data at the time? And if it is legal, should it be?
Thanks again, we sure live in interesting times
Great post!
From what I’m seeing, the biggest issue is the lousy board play by the Oilers. It seems like the vast majority of the time there is a 50-50 battle, we lose. How many times do we see a battle along the boards or behind our net that is 50-50 and we lose then we spend the next 30-45 seconds like we are killing a penalty? How often do you see that at the other end, where we lose that same board battle and the other team is then making an easy breakout of their own end. I know it isn’t about size. Yamo is great at it. Kassian, for all 225 lbs of him, is horrible at it. Sure he hits a ton, but he doesn’t use his strength to win battles. It’s some combination of technique and desire, but to me, it’s what is killing the Oilers.
Everything is turning up Lucic.
Just to stay off the topic of losing NHL games for a bit. Jeremias Lindewall had an assist tonight in Allsvenskan, his first point in a while. Only played about 7 minutes but was busy in that short time with one assist, one penalty and three hits. Good night’s work I’d say.
#Tipsy has battered coach syndrome from all his years at Phoenix.
Does Holland talk to his coach? He waived his 3rd goaltender instead of a D (Lagesson) who his coach has refused to play for over a season now? He added a free agent in Koekook to push Lagesson down to his #5LD.
Bouchard came back from Europe ready to place. Now after a month off, he will arguably be rusty. You have an effing taxi squad. Effing use it.
Ya, listening to Tip from today and he is not happy.
All in reference to the PK:
Specifically calling out Jones for not getting in the lane – along the lines of “he thinks he’s in the lane but he’s not” – referencing that its going to hurt but that’s the job (paraphrasing).
Specifically calling out Yamamoto for not getting the puck out – saying it was an “easy clear’ that we have to have.
Specifically calling out Mikko – not giving us a save.
Too bad he can’t call out veterans the same way. Like when Kass couldn’t “find the lane” in the play-ins against Chicago.
Tippett is inconsistent in his name calling
– Its going to be fine:
1) The back-up they believe in is coming back.
2) Barrie is going to revert to where he was a few years ago, a few teams ago.
3) Turris is going to revert to where he was a few years ago, and prove that the the buy-out was premature.
3) Kahun will start scoring.
4) The bottom-6 will figure it out: they picked up good guys,
5) Tipp will coach them up based on advanced analytics, and the top-innovative bench coaches he’s got, and as a Coach make the playoffs for the first time in his last 7 years: he’s just on a bad streak.
6) Holland is going to make some more good moves, pick up some more hidden gems that make an impact, with the help of one of the most current and thoughtful collection of executives, that have a great combination of steady-hands, and innovation
7) The D, who last year were slotted properly, are going to step up and figure it out.
8) They didn’t have games before the season, which was too bad, to figure it out, and thats hurt them more than any other team: but they will.
9) Koski is going to steal some games: he’s really dialed in as the top-used goalie in the league.
10) The taxi-squad has a bunch of guys who are compelting everyday for playing time, and they are going to make a difference
– Am I doing it right? I see a team that the organization thought was really good, based on their moves, but isn’t. They aren’t I don’t see a puck-luck reversion to a mean: I hope I’m wrong. They just aren’t very good. What a shame for the team and fans. I don’t know what’s next…
?. Bravo
1) Ya, a problem.
2) If he reverts to the player he was last year after Keefe took over that would be great (2nd in 5 on 5 points after Nov 20 last year).
3) I do belive this. He’s 1.99 P/60 in his career and I see the skill and offensive IQ
4) Who knows on this one but, lets recall, the bottom 6 was just as awful last year for 20-25 games, maybe worse. They didn’t tear it up in the 2nd half but were much better and more serviceable. Turris is starting to show signs and I do think Haas will help – he didn’t get caved last year.
5) I do look forward to three days off next week – some real practice time. They’ve hardly had any. Tough to coach without practice time. The team was in the playoffs last year. I don’t care about technicalities – they were 2nd in the division, 4th/5th in the conference and all but assured of the playoffs though 85% of the season. Tip coached a playoff team last year.
6) The cavalry is not coming.
7) Bear and Nurse are essentially in the same spot and doing well. Jones stepping in to Klef’s spot hasn’t worked but the last two games are encouraging. Barrie/Bouchard should be able to give Benning level defence, no?
8) It has hurt them but it should be equal for all teams – no excuse.
9) He did steal some last year. Certainly none to this point this year.
10) Bouchard can potentially indeed make a difference. Will he? Hopefully we find out soon. Benson should be on the taxi squad and available. He could mesh with the talent in the lineup. Him being in California is a GM error.
11)
I remember being very excited about how close we were to balance before this season started. It has to be the Klefbom injury that’s thrown us so far off course.
I’m not going to go into panic mode yet regardless of what we all think, even looking at the standings it looks like a good old fashioned turtle derby is starting up for that 4th and final playoff spot. We’re not out of running by any means, and Calgary and Vancouver don’t look all that hot either. All it takes is a few more of the chances to pot and we’re looking at a very different table.
Stay the course. (I’ve also had lunch now, and it’s a sunny day, so I’m feeling remarkably better about the world in general).
I watched some of the Flames Habs game last night. I’m really impressed with Petry. He just keeps getting better and better. It wasn’t a great decision to trade him when we did, but didn’t feel like that big of a deal at the time. I don’t think anyone could have imagined him developing into the player that he has which, of course, makes the trade look really bad. Hindsight can do that.
He went through some really difficult times here. It’s great to see him work through that and have the career he is having. Not everyone made it through those dark days. Yakupov and others.
It was a big deal at the time to me! I was close to the only person who said Petry was worth every penny of the contract he ended up getting. I advocated for the Oilers offering him that contract before MacT gave him the one year deal.
The OIlers blogosphere wanted Cody Franson for the same contract Montreal offered Petry.
I was always against trading Petry and thought he was vastly under-rated by Oilers fans. His play over the last few years is 100% not a surprise to me and something I fully expected.
Petry was never the popular Oilers defenseman (as reflected in the comments below my final RE for him) but many he was showing better every year here in Edmonton.
https://lowetide.ca/2014/08/07/re-14-15-jeff-petry-see-you-sometime/
I’ve determined to let go of the Petry-era trades, as infuriating as they were at the time. To my way of thinking (rationalization) the Petry-trade materially helped bring Connor to our town.
Anything post-McDavid is up for full debate, IMO.
Pairings were the same at pracitce today.
Wouldn’t mind seeing Bouch in somehow but I am happy to read that – I had a concern about Tip/Playfair maybe taking out Jones for Russell based on the PK goal against where Tip pretty much called Jones out for not getting in the lane. Yes, a PK mistake but, overall, Jones/Larsson has been a much improved pairing the last two games (in my opinion).
Of note, Tip was asked about Haas after the game last night and he mentioned that he’s had some practices and they will see where he is at this weekend.
I don’t think we’ll see him but he may be an option.
Speaking of married to players, I know a lot of us have put our flag in the ground on Koskinen as an elite goalie, or at least way better than Smith, but I think it’s time to take a step back.
The habit of making excuses for players because we have already put our opinion on the record is unsavoury. I could hear the predictable discourse in my head last night as I watched him struggle just as he always has apart from brief moments of ok performance. “He’s just too tired. Holland is an asshole for signing Mike Smith. Mike Smith sucks. Maybe Koskinen is injured? He’s trying to do too much without backup. He has no support. His defenders hang him out to dry”
Sometimes a goalie is just below average and has a mixture of bad performances with occasional good performances that add up to subpar performance.
By eye, he does not look like a good goalie. He can’t seem to track the puck. Several times a game he is reacting to pucks that have been behind the net for a full second already. He is great at squaring himself and managing his depth from the crease to handle angles, but after that, he has no idea where the puck is. He is often surprised when it hits him and then reacts. This creates chaotic rebounds and weird plays in tight that a better goalie manages more expertly. His reaction time is really good, but it doesn’t mean much if he can’t see the puck.
He is very good 1vG and when he has a clear sight line on a player. He overplays some situations leaving a wide open cage, but that is just a matter of experience. On the other hand, tracking the puck is not something that is easily taught.
Smith tracks the puck well though plays unconventionally in other ways. I may be the only one looking forward to his return.
I think Holland needs to look for a better solution than either of these guys.
I thought the team played really well last night. A very encouraging performance. I think this is a tough division, but they have a shot if they can play like that every night and get better performance from the G position.
I don’t think anyone claims Koskinen is elite. I don’t think he’s as bad as some make him out to be either
seems like almost everyone has him in the lower tier of starters between 21-31 and that’s where he is
Yeah, that sounds about right – though I would put him at the bottom of that range. He’s not terrible. He does some things really well. It’s just that the things he struggles with are unlikely to ever improve.
He’d be an ok #2 goalie in the NHL playing 15-20 games a season.
Do you think it was just blind luck that got him the 6th best SV% last season among the 30 goalies who played at least 35 games?
Who are the “a lot us” saying Mikko was Elite?
Better than Smith; well that is 55 NHL Goalies.
Quite a range
A McDavid trade wouldn’t be the end of the world. We can’t get married to players. McDavid is amazing, but is also only one set of boots and would bring back a stunning return that might bring the balance this roster needs.
I like watching him and wouldn’t dare trade him. But if he comes asking and his agent gets antsy because it’s taking too long and threatens to take it public to increase their leverage, then it will be what it will be.
Unless we turn things around asap and compete every year of the rest of his career, a McDavid trade/departure will come eventually. Even if it’s in 5 years or 10 years. No notable player has ever spent their whole career as an Oilers.
Hopefully if it happens, it comes when he’s 33 and sporting a couple of rings.
Either there are a lot of above average team in this division, or we are below average.
Bouchard for Barrie and Benson into the top six for Kahun not happening, is really wasting the work these two did in Europe to come to Edmonton in game shape.
Barrie is Russell ish
Kahun is not scoring and is good 3rd liner playing on the second line.
I like what Kahun brings wrt work ethic / hustle etc. However, he is more Tobi Rieder than Jake Guentzel this year. How about putting Benson with McDavid and move RNH to the DRY line? Kahun to the 4th line.
Barrie is not bringing what was expected. ‘Old Man’ Bouchard is 6′-3″ and can play a bigger game. Can he be worse at 5v5? I think not. Put him in.
3-6 in their last 9 is a tough stretch but the pp shows signs of turning around and Ottawa ahead. Pretend like it’s not out of the gate, and you can imagine a season here still. You’ll look back and say “that was a tough stretch” just as every team does at some point.
Will the Oilers get better? Probably at least a little bit. Anyway I don’t know but the willingness to give up on a season is strong amongst many of you and it must not be very much fun anymore.
Reid Wilkins
@ReidWilkins
Looks like only change from last night on top 4 lines is Ennis in for Nygard with Shore and Archibald on fourth line.
Why Archibald at this point?
Blue deck chair instead of the Red one.
The good-ship Oiler is sinking and the life boats (Benson, Bouchard, Mcleod) are not used.
I thought Nygard showed more in his 5 min last game than Ennis had all year
At this point playing Nygard, Kahun, Archibald on the left week vs. Benson is more stubborn and than committed to winning.
Yup. Tippet going from stubborn to the realm of ‘deaf-to-reason’.
Isn’t Benson in California right now getting ready for the season in Bakersfield ?
Benson is and, as I said in the weeks leading up to the season and early in the season, he better stay on the taxi squad and not be assigned to Bakersfield as the team essentially loses access to the player, at least timely access.
I guess I get it, he was in a battle with Nygard for an injury fill-in spot but, damn, I’d much rather have access to him the Quine (or P. Russell).
With that said, I can’t agree that playing Kahun is “stubborn” – he has produced 1.99 P/60 in the NHL and I can see the skill and smarts . He’s a legit middle six NHL player that is slumping but will come around in my opinion.
Archie should never be an option of the left side, he’s a right winger. He shouldn’t be an option above the 4th line either – this one I agree with.
I think Nygard can give this team more but being in and out of the lineup and, 6-7 minutes of ice when in, isn’t conducive to the player finding his game.
He played well in his first game, the 4th line had a good game and then he’s sat.
I’m dying to see some creativity from the coaching staff.
Maybe they are giving time for things to gel given no camp and some bad luck and goalie fails.
The downtrodden Oiler fan in me says they will go down with the ship with great valour. No trying to stop the ship from sinking by major course correcting.
Perhaps OP is right and it’s the opposite side of the curve from Montreal. Both will meet at the meat at some point as we go along.
All 18F and 8D on the ice today along with Grosencik and Skinner. No surprise that Mikko would get the day off (they had talked about the one advantage of having 3 tenders is given extra rest and still having two goalies for practice).
The 4th line barely played last night (and Archie was AWFUL) – it may signal the “opportunity” to run 11F and 7D – Shore to the taxi squad to make room for Bouchard.
Personally, I think that Bouchard should be given a 3rd pairing regular shift but I’m not sure the coaching staff is there yet.
Will be interesting to see what the pairs are – verbal on that should be out soon.
Play on the ice matches the eye test – two solid games in a row for this pairing which is a very very good sign.
I am concerned though. Tip expressly mentioned not getting in shooting lanes on the PK as a primary reason they lost the game. Tip is not wrong but that is a direct comment to Jones.
I fear Russell in for Jones next game………
KRusty should be encased and labeled with a sign that says ‘ONLY In Case of Emergency Break Glass’.
Jones had the lowest toi among D as well I think, I was thinking the same thing about Russell coming back in.
Thankfully he was back with Larsson at practice today.
I thought the line played well but the verbal from Dave T. after the game was “meh”.
My goodness James Neal – I think that is three open nets this year you’ve not buried – ya, popechecked last night but, still – bury the biscuit – that is your job.
Turris got a minus within a second of coming out of the box – no culpability on that dash (although the penalty itself……).
Not a perfect game from the 3rd line but they impacted the game more positively than negatively I thought.
Nuge played 27 minutes, McDavid played 25 minutes and Jesse played 19 minutes. Lots of PP time in there (for the first two).
1 shot on net among the three.
Damn.
A week ago the vibes surrounding the Canucks match the current vibes surrounding the Oilers. Then they played the Sens twice and the sun came out.
The soft spot in the schedule is about to start. Now, the question is if the team can take advantage. If they can’t, then, yes, they are the soft spot in the schedule. If they can get the split against the Leafs and take advantage of the soft spot that the others teams have, well, then the clouds start to part.
Huge Weekend – Lets do this!
https://www.imao.us/2021/01/why-n-b-a/
Lol. I wonder if they will petition for equal pay?
You better not joke around are you might be receiving a visit from the Baylor Bears woman’s team.
This should help attendance
“Among newly inaugurated President Joe Biden’s first official acts last week tacitly allowed transgender women the right to compete on women’s sports teams.”
Please get the fuck out of here with this misogynistic/transphobic bullshit.
That’s what you read into that post. Sad. Go virtue signal to someone else who cares.
Yeah you’re a real mans man for sure buddy.
Old time hockey finish your checks nothing is free in life.
It is nothing of the sort and has become a very huge issue in women’s sports south of the border.
Many young female athletes are losing competitions and scholarships that they’ve worked very hard for.
Here is one mother’s story.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/06/19/transgender-athletes-robbing-girls-chance-win-sports-column/4856486002/
There are many, many others.
Thank you for this.
I truly encourage others who are on the fence or undecided/unaware to look into what Joe Rogan (among others, like say Martina Navratilova) has to say about transgender women competing in women’s sports.
There’s merit (and good reason) in striving for and being inclusive. But allowing genetic men to dominate women in sport where they would fall short competing against men (IE their peers) is nothing short of foolhardy and disappointing.
Think about it.
If women who’ve transitioned to men were dominating genetic males in sports, this would not be an issue. At all.
Read a story yesterday about this issue.
The woman who holds the world’s record in the 400 metres has had that record smashed by more than 300 high school boys.
If being inclusive means the destruction of female sports (and it likely does) then the rights of less than 2% of the population that are transgender have usurped the rights of more than 50% of the population.
This has been going on for years in the Olympics.
You may recall several years ago that an East German “female” team withdrew from competition after the IOC announced it would be conducting genetic testing.
This is not a binary issue.
Men competing in women’s sports after partially (even fully) transitioning doesn’t allow for muscle mass and bone mass, let alone the mental fortitude of competing at the highest levels of sport.
Women can rarely compete with men in the upper echelons of most sports. If Serena Williams — a beast, a true force of nature — can barely manage a point against a man ranked in the mid-200s, what do you expect of women competing against men in (say) combat sports? What of the recent non-binary/gender-fluid competitors (men) claiming they’re women and competing in power lifting only to claim world records then conveniently identify as men again?
There are bigger issues at stake beyond today’s politics and policies promoting affirmative action.
Why not propose a new division? We can call it “Y’all made choices.”
Its going to be a great Oilers weekend – they are going to sweep, their confidence is going to improve for a run – its going to be real and its going to be spectacular!
I hope this is accurate.
I think you have to go with Skinner I think Kosh needs a mental break for a game or two.
You gotta figure new guy gets a game..
The Oilers are running a 52.3% expected GF and have a PDO of 971. That despite their very obvious issues with goaltending and poor 3rd and 4th lines. Not too surprisingly that was also the issue last year.
Holland has done some very good things- offloading Lucic, bringing back JP, Tippett, playing Bear, Jones and Yammo, bringing in Nygard, Hass, picking up some good discards- Kahun, Koekkoek. But he has failed miserably with goaltending (Smith), at 3C (Turris) and re-signing Russell.
Running an organization is a great deal about risk management and goaltending is and was the obvious risk that would sink the season. Koskinen is doing as okay given the circumstances but there needed to be a Plan B and C. I suppose you can say there was but Plan B (Smith) was a loser all along and Plan C (Forsberg) was squandered through mismangement.
May I ask how the one-year extension for Russell is a fail?
With the current roster and Lagesson not getting in to 40 games this season (even if they do decide to pro-rate that), the team would be forced to expose at least one of Bear, Nurse or Jones.
Yes, they could potentially sign or trade for a D that meets the requirements but it may not be as easily done as said.
There has been the opinion, “they could have just signed Koekkoek for two years”. Is that true? He signed for the league min and, presumably wants one year in order to increase his value. Would he have signed for 2 years at $850? Probably not (its only $100K over league min next year).
Russell takes care of the piece of business with all but zero risk except for a spot on the 50. He will go in to nest season as 7D at the highest and probably lower. He has zero movement protection and can be waived and assigned to the AHL for a cap hit of $750K.
How is this such a fail? He’s likely playing very few if any games as an Oiler in 2021/22
Meh, not so worried about McDavid wanting out, it’s Lowetide that has me concerned. Have you read his posts lately? If Boston comes calling for a hockey guru/historian/poet, how long before he sets sail for his childhood “home”? I swear, if I have to drive to Beantown and bring back a trunkfull of Whalburgers to keep LT happy, I will!! I mean, I can take losing for another decade or so, as long as I have this site.
— it will be the Rangers that steal him. It’s always the Rangers
I was about to do a “Swing low, sweet Chara-iot” thing there, then realised he was in Washington now and no longer a Bruin.
Koskinen stupid goal because he tries to move the puck because the dmen cant put us in a 1-0 hole that we had trouble getting out of
I’m in full troll mode today. I apologise in advance.
We all know another goalie on the roster who could move the puck…..
Maybe a rotation of LW?
Neal-McD-JP
RNH- Drai- KY
Kahun – Turris – Kassian
Speed, size and goal scorer on each line? Take some pressure off Kahun?
James Neal is absolutely not the answer for line 1 and I’m bewildered anyone could think there’s even a remote chance that he has the chops for that role. Hasn’t pissed a drop at even strength for several years.
He did in the play-in….. yes, sample size….
The Oilers are playing scared to win Kosh can’t make the big save when needed. Tipp needs to give Skinner the net until he loses. The opposition has very little scouting report on his weaknesses it might give the team a little extra jolt. Kosh needs a reset as well as the players.
I think Mikko makes a lot of big saves. He needs more help in front of,him.
that was an entertaining game last night. I have to bring up the McTavish quote that goes something like this. At end of losing streaks, you play well enough to win and at the end of winning streaks you play bad enough to lose but win anyways. Based on last night, IMO, this team is about to break out and go on a run. my prediction is that It will be over .500 by the middle of February.
I logged in today to mention this same quote.
I see this a lot. It’s not that I disagree, but how does a guy who “looks solid” every night end up with worst-on-team possession stats? At 5v5, Koekkoek is
39.81 CF%, 8th of 8 defensemen
40.13 FF%, 8th
42.48 SF%, 7th ahead of Lagesson
30.00 GF%, 5th ahead of Barrie, Russell and Lagesson
etc.
Here’s an interesting stat line: in 2021, the Oilers are
53.15 CF%
55.96 FF%
54.66 SF%
50.00 GF% (12-12)
60.14 xGF%
55.21 SCF%
59.57 HDCF%
.981 PDO
with both Koekkoek and Barrie on the bench.
http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-01-13&td=2021-05-08&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8476886&p2=8475197&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
Tyler Benson pick – ouch.
It is not just Debrincat any more…
Blues Jordan Kyrou – 7 points so far in 7 games.
Carter Hart
Sam Girard
I mean – you have to hit picking at the top of other rounds.
Dube
Benson can’t get stats if Tippet won’t play him. Oilers should put him with McDavid and find out what they have.