The final draft rankings are coming in, and I’m prepared to suggest this is going to be a crazy July 23-24 weekend. We’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge!
For the Oilers, this draft is a damnable thing because the club has so few picks in the top-100 overall (just one). Due to the lack of ice, playing time and leagues, this year’s draft crop simply hasn’t had enough eyes on them to draw a conclusion.
For us, the folks who track the draft, this is finding natural light at midnight—impossible.
Yet we soldier on.
THE ATHLETIC!
I’m proud to be writing for The Athletic, and pleased to be part of a great team with Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis. Here’s the latest!
- New Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft from the OHL after a season that never happened?
- New DNB: Oilers are interested in trading for Blackhawks defenceman Duncan Keith — at a price
- Lowetide: Finding the ideal No. 3 centre for the Edmonton Oilers
- New DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers offseason
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ future value to the Oilers will be defined by his adaptability
- DNB: Oilers’ Connor McDavid wants ‘more consistency’ with NHL playoff officiating
- DNB: How re-signing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for eight years could help and hurt the Oilers
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers’ next wave of prospects help them win a playoff series in 2022?
- DNB: Five offseason scenarios that could upend the Oilers’ best-laid plans
- onathan Willis: How underappreciated Oilers defenceman Jeff Petry became a Canadiens mainstay
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers return to the WHL prospect pool in the 2021 draft?
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard is poised to exceed expectations
- Lowetide: Oilers’ prospect pipeline could be at stake as AHL coach Jay Woodcroft outgrows his minor-league role
- DNB and Dom: How the Oilers should value pending UFAs
- Jonathan Willis: How the Oilers could make a Jack Eichel-level trade happen this offseason
- Lowetide: The 7 Oilers roster spots GM Ken Holland must improve this offseason
- Lowetide: Caleb Jones, Oilers reach crossroads that could land Jones in Seattle
- Lowetide: What will Oilers do if they must replace Oscar Klefbom?
- Jonathan Willis: What comes next for the Oilers’ Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Lowetide: Why Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and more prospects are options for Oilers in 2021-22
- DNB: Ten teams the Oilers should be targeting for trades ahead of the Kraken expansion draft
- Lowetide: How Ken Holland’s transaction history could foreshadow the Oilers summer to come
- Lowetide: How close to NHL-ready is Oilers prospect Dmitri Samorukov?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ reasonable expectations eat dust during Connor McDavid’s dream season
- Jonathan Willis: Why some of the most popular moves Ken Holland could make would be mistakes
- Lowetide: Why huge Oil Kings goalie Sebastian Cossa could be the perfect first-round fit for the Oilers
NAMES TO REMEMBER
Since I made my list early, I can go through the incoming rankings and see where they differ. There are some fascinating disconnects, and we should expect it based on few viewings from the scouting community and limited math from the other end. Here we go.
- LW Eric Alarie of the Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL) is in my top-25 overall and is outside the first round in all other rankings. Using three well respected lists, I’d estimate a mid-third round selection (say, No. 115) for this player. All I can tell you is that math is fond of Alarie and the progress he made.
- RW Josh Williams of the Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL) turned 20 in March and has been in the WHL since Diefenbaker was prime minister. The young man can score goals and that always has value, but speed is going to be a concern. This is the final year he is eligible and he might make an attractive free-agent signing this summer for the Oilers. I did not rank him but Williams is on a very respected list.
- LC Cole Sillinger of Sioux Falls Stampede (USHL). This is a player I have rated outside the first round (No. 38) who could go inside the top-10 overall. I ranked him lower because of foot speed concerns and a general mistrust of the USHL-to-NHL-equivalencies I’ve been using for recent drafts. Sillinger is a significant prospect, his rise to the NHL would put to rest any questions about the USHL being a league equal to its CHL cousins.
- LC Sami Päivärinta, Lukko (U20 Sm-Sarja). Undersized two-way center played a major role on his junior team and at the U18 championships. Only one list aside from mine ranked him, and my number (56) is double on the other list. Maybe he’ll fall through the draft (he is a June 2003) but there is offense here.
- LW Zach Ostapchuk, Vancouver Giants (WHL). I have him No. 60 and he shows up on just one other ranking (as a fifth-rounder). I’m goin to respectfully disagree with the lists, Ostapchuk is 6.03, is a May 2003, and posted 7-9-16 in 22 WHL games. There’s a lot of track for this big man to improve before turning pro.
- That gets me halfway through my list. More to come.
OILERS POSSIBLE SUMMER
It seems there are more twists and turns to this summer than the old highway held. Daniel Nugent-Bowman’s article on Duncan Keith’s possible acquisition includes some valuable information on what Oilers general manager Ken Holland is willing (and not willing) to do in pursuit of Keith.
Based on Daniel’s article, and there’s a lot in there, we can begin to populate a possible Edmonton roster for 2021-22:
- Tomas Tatar—Connor McDavid—Jesse Puljujarvi
- Nuge—Leon Draisaitl—Kailer Yamamoto
- Dylan Holloway—Derek Ryan—Josh Archibald
- Tyler Benson—Ryan McLeod—Zack Kassian
- Devin Shore, Jujhar Khaira
- Darnell Nurse—Ethan Bear
- Duncan Keith—Adam Larsson
- Slater Koekkoek—Evan Bouchard
- Kris Russell
- Mike Smith (Chris Driedger)
Sad news but CBJ future stud goalie Kivlieniks has died at age 24
Pelss and now Kivlenieks.
My conspiracy theory hat suggests that something fishy is going on.
FWIW, Someone (not treenasoil) on Twitter (who apparently reads this blog) claims to have insider info that Chicago refuses to retain on Keith, so that potential deal is dead, they have also put it out there that Larsson wants to test his UFA options and that Hall is on Holland’s radar….
Crazy rumour month is in full swing now. Always fun.
More fun than the actual season.
For Oilers fans that has been sadly too true.
I’m in: Bag Hall and run the kids on D
Edit: +Hamilton
CHI has two options – EDM and SEA – no others. Neither team is going to just take Keith and his cap hit even if the actual dollars are modest. Neither team is giving away cap hit, picks or young assets for an expensive 38 year old dman. CHI is delusional if they think moving Keith is going to be cheap or easy. Keith also a very big hammer as his cap penalty is massive if he simply retires and he’s already received most of his contract dollars. If CHI wants to stall then all he has to say is two words – I retire.
I predict Neal will eventually land in CHI in exchange for Keith. They can then buy out Neal to save $3.8 million in cap for each of the next two years. It’s not getting any better than that for the Hawks, and it could be a whole lot worse.
You can link to their tweet.
https://twitter.com/NHLTomDaniels/status/1411813212794724352?s=20
All good news for EDM.
This talk of good D not moving the needle is wild.
Has everyone forgotten how bad this team looked with a substandard d-core during the 2010s?
You can’t just look at WOWYs to evaluate D.
If you’ve been reading Georgexs recently, it’s clear he’s not just looking at WOWYs. Even today he said that was a tertiary measure.
He’s shown us the ways we usually evaluate defensemen (GF%, xGF%, etc) are not reliable. That is, the vast majority of individual defensemen do not have reproducibly good or bad on ice results.
He’s also shown us that TOI per game and points per game are measures that individual defensemen CAN reproduce pretty consistently season over season.
So while he’s taken away the tools most of us have been using to evaluate defensemen, he’s also shown us some other things that matter.
I don’t agree with all of Georgexs’s takes, and I think it’s clear that there’s some information missing in evaluating D beyond TOI/game and PTS/game.
At the same time, analysis that shows GF% (for instance) for defensemen is relatively random year to year is really valuable. It probably isn’t the thing you want to be focusing on when evaluating a Dman, cause there’s very little reason to believe a Dman will be able to replicate it.
Never forget.
What are the numbers with Brayden McNabb with all the Centres?
The fact that Pietrangelo doesn’t boost the numbers of Stone and Karlsson does not mean he is not a dominant D.
It just may mean their entire roster is extremely solid, which is what it is.
To counteract your point, if by someone miracle Holland were to get the bottom six to a 60 percent goal share, it would not mean that McDavid is not dominant because McDavid off = McDavid on.
Let’s not forget also the difference in quality of comp that McDavid and AP face vs your typical third and fourth liners and bottom pairing D.
George’s said:
“That’s what sets defensemen apart, the ability to supply consistent cover and support to forwards for longer stretches of time.”
And this is likely why Holland wants the veteran Dmen – assumed ability to play big minutes while limiting errors and goals against.
Nurse Barrie (Bear if Barrie isn’t cheap)
Keith Larson
3LD Bouchard
I think this is what Holland is thinking.
If there is a way to sign Hamilton, I would trade Bear for Nolan Patrick
Trade Jones and a 2022 high pick for Rienhart
From everything I have tried to look at, that is how GMs of top teams move the thing.
Drafting yes. But we are at the point where the Oilers have drafted their core, and elite players.
The rest is where the hay is made.
Look it up, it is true.
Yep.
Cap Friendly’s new tool shows clearly that the elite teams trade their way to the top after securing their core through the draft.
Tampa Bay has been the object lesson in roster construction.
Well, yes, Hamilton, Larsson, Bouchard would be something but I don’t see him signing in Edmonton.
I imagine Buffalo would require this year’s first and a more material asset than Jones.
Even more than that.
Buffalo will likely get a high 1st round pick, a top prospect and a substantial roster player.
There are very few teams that have all 3 as well as the cap space to absorb his new contract.
Given Reinhart’s expressed desire to play on the West Coast, that narrows the field even further.
All 3 California teams have high 1st round picks as does Vancouver but the Canucks lack the cap space and likely the top prospect.
The LAK have to be considered the front runner.
I would like to introduce into the conversation Victor Hedman. The key is systems and reffing can offset offensively gifted players without spectacular d-men.
https://www.nhl.com/player/victor-hedman-8475167
Bouchard is exactly what we need with Nurse learning from Bouchard how to pass quickly and accurately.
Keith in his prime is a great example of using skating and IQ to stop soirees while quickly turning the puck the other way to the offensive side. Defense done right makes offense thrive.
Soooo, you’re basing your team building model on the results of the Montreal/Vegas series?
Seems like a pretty big leap of faith based on 1 random outcome.
Upsets happen frequently in hockey.
Montreal played well against Vegas and their goalie was excellent.
I don’t think Vegas qualifies as a flawed team.
Yes. Exactly.
The best team doesn’t always win a 7 game series.
You seem to be saying Montreal has the better roster construction because they won the series.
Or am I reading your post wrong?
Tampa got swept 3 seasons ago by Columbus. Was that a badly flawed line up? 14 members of that roster have played all three seasons and won the last 2 cups. Stuff happens.
Okay that makes sense.
I would have phrased it different. I thought you meant Montreal did us a favor by showing us how to build a team.
I think Montreal gave us hope by showing any team is beatabl. Except Tampa. ?
Surprised nobody’s talking about the big news of the day. 🙂
Joey Chestnut does it again! 76 hot dogs in 10 minutes. A new record for the 14 time winner (3 more championships than Henri Richard). Insane.
You mention that Vegas doesn’t have enough money to upgrade their bottom six… construction is off, then post a 51% goal share with AP, Stone, and Karlsson on the bench? 🙂
You know, there’s more than a few Oilers fans who dream of seeing the day we have a 51% goal share with Nurse, Draisaitl, and McDavid on the bench.
The difference is Vegas gets goal production from all four lines, the Oilers have a lot of work to do to get any sort of balanced production.
I think that’s a feature not a bug.
Interesting that you noticed that too.
I have a theory that Vegas sort of went around the league specifically looking for those types of players. Young, big, fast, low scoring enough to be cheap, but don’t give up much either.
Carrier was taken in the expansion draft from Buffalo. That year he had a 47.8% GF% playing on a very poor team.
Their bottom six is low event, but those guys don’t make many mistakes or give up much.
I wish we had a bottom six like that.
Worth noting, the acquired Janmark, kolesar, and Roy all in trades.
Trades the Oilers have lost:
Athanasiou
Caggiula for Manning
Strome for Spooner
Hall for Larsson
Picks for Reinhart
Petry for picks
…
Smyth for Nilsson
Guerin for Carter
Weight for Hecht
Satan for nada
…
Nicholls for Ciger
Damphousse for Corson
Kurri for Mellanby
…
Messier and Graves for Nicholls and DeBrusk
Gretzky for Gelinas
Trades make me queasy
The Oilers largest problems are at forward. Holland did well to sign Nuge and needs to continue.
Depending on how expansion plays out, the GM might have to pick one of Broberg, Sami or Bear to trade, depending on return.
There is no reason to trade any of those three. Bear is needed on the right side. Broberg and Sami are assets in the system and have no need to trade assets out. If the return is phenomenal then maybe you would trade Jones, Lagesson or possibly Sami or Broberg as a piece of a larger trade but most likely Broberg or Sami are needed when the veteran signed this year is done in 1-2 years.
George’s said:
“That’s what sets defensemen apart, the ability to supply consistent cover and support to forwards for longer stretches of time.”
And this is likely why Holland wants the veteran Dmen – assumed ability to play big minutes while limiting errors and goals against.
Nurse Barrie (Bear if Barrie isn’t cheap)
Keith Larson
3LD Bouchard
Stone plays RW. Stephenson was their #1 center.
Honestly we suck as fans. Seriously the amount of angst and anger over a transaction that hasn’t happened is amazing.
Could they screw it up? Sure.
Have they screwed it up? Not yet.
I love the speculation and guessing. But the calls to fire Holland for the terrible Duncan Keith trade, the overpay on Nurse’s next deal, the brutal non trades of fictional assets is epically awesome.
We are so broken from years of Oilers….. Maybe we can have some HOPE ? (And yes that was intentional). Now back to day drinking.
Bouchard for OEL which was literally just a journalist spitballing
George’s said:
“That’s what sets defensemen apart, the ability to supply consistent cover and support to forwards for longer stretches of time.”
And this is likely why Holland wants the veteran Dmen – assumed ability to play big minutes while limiting errors and goals against.
Nurse Barrie (Bear if Barrie isn’t cheap)
Keith Larson
3LD Bouchard
I think this could be what Holland is thinking.
Where were you the day the music stopped and Gretzky was traded?
My Grandma’s and yes I cried I was 10
In the back seat of my family’s car passing a peach stand on an Okanagan highway. I can see it frame by frame: the umbrella opening, the pan to the grassy knoll…
Right. Except for the one season where Pronger shows up, and almost every Oiler forward has a career season. Hard to compare to the prior season since it was 2 years prior (pre-strike and rule changes), but Pronger leaves and Edmonton goes from 245 goals down to 192 goals with a lot of the same roster.
Again another extreme example, but Phil Esposito scored about a point a game in each the 12 seasons he played without Orr (plus Orr’s rookie season), and over 1.5 ppg in every season with Orr. Yes the first 4 seasons were pre-expansion, but his drop off after he left Boston was immediate and spectacular (127 points down to 83).
The data is missing something if it doesn’t recognize that top end defensemen (in both ends of the rink) have a significant impact on the flow of the game. Defenseman who can defend and retrieve the puck more effectively and then also get the puck out through passing or skating are a big part of dictating the flow of the play. Heck, even Smith’s puck handling ability results in the OIlers having more shots (and goals) for and less against compared to with Koskinen in net. It’s a 6 man interconnected unit.
The list of Stanley Cup champions without at least one defenseman who gets Norris consideration is very short. And while Theodore and Pietrangelo are in that conversation, so was Petry this season, and Weber, though now past his prime, was perennially getting a lot of votes in his Prime and even got votes last season. And Montreal’s D had a higher payroll that Vegas too $24 million to $22 million.
Sorry – meant to be replying to your other post about on-ice results forwards and defensemen.
Savard, Orr, Robinson, MacInnes, Leetch, Stevens, Lidstrom, Niedermeyer, Keith and Hedman all won the Conn Smythe and with the exception of Stevens, all drove play from the backend. Even Stevens was pretty decent offensively. And Potvin probably could have won a Smythe too. So no not just Pronger and Orr, that was just 2 examples. Publicly available data is not near good enough to cover the complexities of hockey and even private data has a ways to go. Every second of every game 12 players are reacting to each other and several other variab;es for 3,600 seconds of a regular game. Baseball is a tiny fraction of that in terms of decision making and outcomes.
I generally post the stats as a statement of fact to counter a specific argument. Actual goals, assists, points, wins and losses are indisputable results that are the final and only absolute determinants of who wins and loses. Actual shots a little less important, but still a fact. Corsi for and and against are facts, but less determinant about outcomes. Fenwick requires some judgement which can be flawed. Judgements on scoring chances for and against require multiples of variables beyond what is used by public data to make the determination of their quality. I know you agree that xGF/XGA are not very useful.
There are dozens and dozes of other defenseman who help their team offensively, maybe not at a Hall of Fame level, but significantly. Even on the Oilers, getting a guy like Barrie, so far a long ways away from the Hall of Fame, and McDavid scores 5 points per 60 in all situations, almost 25% above his best previous season. Yes he is still improving, but that was the single biggest leap he has ever made. With 3 Lagesson’s and 3 Larsson’s on D, McDavid doesn’t come anywhere close to 100 points this season.
If Pietrangelo doesn’t move the needle what is the value of a d-man? How can you tell who is valuable?
I agree with George.
The myth of the new Bobby Orr and the myth of the Monster Shut Down are the problem when we look at D.
Working from the O zone back, a defenseman has to be hold the offensive blue line with passing and blocking exits, hold the neutral zone and thus the defensive blue line, break the attack, retrieve the puck and make a helpful breakout pass, join the attack in a responsible way. Disclaimer, it is never perfect.
Great at that is the perfect D. Nurse has now mastered every aspect of being a good defenseman. He is tough, his skating, skill and size mean there is no game you can play against him to get him at the disadvantage. That is a true #1 D, kudos to Lowe. I wanted Risto.
There are outlier ridiculous players that come, there are currently no D in the league that are so offensively dominant that the other aspects can be overlooked.
I think Bouchard can be a really good two way D. Also Samu and Bro. No one else seems capable on the roster.
So upgrading the very one dimensional Dmen will help, but really the Oilers problem is in an unstable back up G that the team and coach don’t trust, and forwards that can’t seem to get how to break out (which is a bigger problem than most D but elite passers and skaters can handle) and are so limited they can’t sustain O zone pressure and consistently create good scoring chances.
The difference between high end and the others forwards is scoring. The best get it in the net a lot. Still, all forwards should be creating solid O zone pressure and chances, being positive contributors to team D and special teams, the difference being in the finishing. Scoring gets paid.
There are too many vanilla slowish hands optional types on the Oilers. Holland should turn over the majority of them leaving only slots for in house options that deserve.
If they fail so what? The people they’ll replace weren’t close to good enough. At least it’s a move to get better. Do we want to win or provide job security for marginal players in the name of stability?
The way I see it is that very few teams can ice three scoring lines. Most teams have a designated first line but unless you have exception talent and are very deep the best way to build a team is to assure you have an excellent shut down line. This should be the number two priority to an excellent outscoring first line. If you can shut down your opponents number one line at all your home games where you have the benefit of last change this gives you a tremendous advantage and should assure a great home record to wit if you can be around five hundred on you road games you should assure a playoff most years. The cost of an excellent shutdown line should be far less expensive than an outscoring line. You can’t teach skill but you can teach defence! The key ingredients are first a Centre that wins face offs second is two wingers with average or better size that have above average skating.
Remember when Katz was trying to cut costs with the OEG?
Maybe Holland is leaking the Keith rumors and he’s going to review what Woodguy and the other twitter analysts say because Katz won’t let him actually pay for an analytics depart.
Kassian+1st for Buchnevich sign6*6
Kahun+4th for Killorn.
Mikko half retained for 6th rnd pick.
Marody and Jones for
Keith 1.5 retained. Strome and 4th.
Ullmark 4*4
Buyout Neal
Killorn-McDavid-Buchnevich
Nuge-Drai-Yam
Benson-Strome-Puljujarvi
Khaira-McLeod-Archibald
Nurse-Bear
Samorukov-Larsson
Keith-Bouchard
Russel, Lagg, KK
Ullmark
Smith
~1m cap space left
Trade Killorn next season for Nurse, Bear, JP cap space . Replace with Holloway
We’ve talked about utilizing cap space, I believe the first two trades accomplish that.
If more cap is needed you can keep Koski and not sign Ullmark.
1 rookie and 1 veteran on every D pairing.
7 top 6 forwards plus Strome as opposed to just 5 and Turris last season
If the answer is Tatar, Ryan and Keith, you’re asking the wrong question. None of those move the needle. At all. Another offseason fail.
Aim higher. 1D or 1LW/RW. The guys currently in those spots move down, pushing others further down or out. That’s how you improve the bottom six/3rd pairing.
Tatar and Ryan should be at best reclaimation projects near league minimum.
There’s a lot of players who’re going to be exposed in the expansion draft.
Gustav Forsling is a 25 y/o left shot dman who played 19:56 per night in Florida.
Jeremy Lauzon, 24 y/o left shot D in Boston who played 18:42 per night. Also Zboril, left shot, and Connor Clifton (though 26 and right shot).
Jake Bean in Carolina…
The oft mention Ryan Graves.
If you need a left shot defenseman to play on your second pair, the options abound.
While I agree that it’s nice to add to the top of the pile and push everyone down, there are lots of options outside of aged UFA vets.
Go out and get a Teddy Blueger, who would probably instantly be the best player in our bottom six.
Which is why ANY pursuit of Keith makes no sense to me.
It only makes sense if it’s Neal headed back the other way. One-for-one, no retention.
There are better and cheaper options available this year. Seattle knows this, too.
But, you have to factor the potential of getting rid of Neal’s contract without the need for a buyout, which gives an additional $2M of spending money for the next four years.
Keith may be able to play second pairing minutes next year, and third pairing the next. And it gives some time to see what they have in Samurokov and Broberg.
Chicago gets a cheaper buyout. If they don’t like it, move along.
I’ve come the same conclusion. Neal and Jones for Keith and a 3rd round pick. No less than Neal for Keith one for one. CHI can go see what blood Francis will draw as the only other choice if they don’t like it. They are delusional if they think they will get both assets and cap relief for Keith. CHI has bags of money for the buy-out. Keith also MUST waive his NMC for the expansion draft. No problem as SEA is his #2 choice, and if we lost him, we then all it cost to lose Neal was Jones and we got a pick in return.
We get an over-priced previously elite vet LHD to mentor our kids on the bottom 6 for 2 years. Far from perfect but a better use of funds than Neal and this is why we paid the price to get him and his very buy-outable contract. Just rename Keith “the bridge” to Bouchard, Sammy and Broburg.
yep, that’s the only way it would make sense imo
Agreed unless they basically all but give him to us.
If Dmen don’t help forwards score then the focus should be on acquiring Ricki Box Defenders? I probably missed this discussion around here while I was always climbing.
There is a middle area of defenders.
Two way.
I’m still hoping that Ken leverages all of his available protected slots and goes shopping before the expansion draft.
I’m also hoping that he takes a stroll through the RFA aisle.
Brilliant!!
Lots of comments the past few days about needing a shutdown checking line that can play against the opposition’s elite.
Does Tampa have such a line or do they have 4 lines that our score and go power vs power?
If you look at TOI they run out 3 lines almost equally with the 4th line getting substantially fewer minutes.
That would suggest power vs power.
With a 95 million payroll!
I would classify the Gourde-Coleman-Goodrow line as that. They were starting every period and playing lots against the Suzuki line. They are probably the best third line in the NHL
PuckIQ agrees they saw the highest %TOI vs elites during the regular season.
You may want to check the price of that 4th line
From Kurt’s article it is clear to me that Holland would like all 3 veterans (Larson, Keith, Barrie) for the D next season.
is Holland thinking those 3 vets and then Nurse (also now a vet), Bouchard and then whoever else wins the 3LD job?
The article indicates Barry will take less to stay in Edmonton and that Bear was out of shape last season.
I can understand Holland wanting a veteran defence behind his two superstars. Maybe this could work for the next two seasons?
I respect Kurt but won’t take his info as gospel.
There have been various other insider reports that say both Larsson and Barrie back is not on the table for Holland and he will be opening a clear path for Bouchad.
If Holland signs Barrie and Larsson, presumably he’d then trade Bear.
I could maybe be on board if that Bear trade is for real value, like the Reinhart trade suggested above (or Buskevich).
I mentioned him late last night and the point was made in reply that he’s extremely unlikely to come to Edmonton. I think that point is probably true but, at the same time, I think Kyle Palmeri is under-talked about. He had a regression season but I would be interested in him as the “2021/22 Tyson Barrie” – one year contract to play with the superstars and re-establish value. Similar to the Tatar interest.
Don’t see it happening but he’s a player of interest to me.
Saad or Palmieri to play with Mcdavid would be a good get
and pretty much everyone on the east coast is capped out or sucks
Sign Saad.
Trade the 1st and Samorukov to Colorado for Nazem Kadri and Ryan Johnson.
Buy out Neal and Koskinen (or trade with retention).
Get a goalie.
Offseason done.
Works for me.
The avs would have to trade for Ryan Johnson first
Oops…Ryan Graves.
Not enough coffee.
Saad would be a good get.
Ullmark is a good target for goalie.
A buyout of both Neal and Koskinen is too much dead cap for too long. Holland needs to get more creative than that.
That would work for me too.
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Catching up on the DFO Rundown at the gym this morning and a couple of interesting tidbits from Frank.
Most interesting is, in connection with the Rangers looking to open up some space, one of the pieces out could be Pavel Buchnevich. I’ve been talking about Sam Reinhart as a guy I’d move the 1st plus for. Bechnevick would be another and I think he’d be a great fit. Same principles apply, need to talk to the player first and settle on a reasonable extension for term.
The other tidbit is on Tarasenko. I’m not thought at all about acquiring him as his $7.5M plus acquisition cost would be way too risky given the shoulder issues but Frank said that the surgery he had has fixed them completely and he’s 100%. Sounds like he had the “Mike Grier” shoulder where it would pop out all the time. I still don’t think there is a deal there but, if he is legit 100%…….
Thanks for the info.
I don’t want to give up a first for anything but a marquee player or really intriguing prospect.
After getting pounded on so many deals, the thought repulses me. If that is the price I need to see the Oilers trade a a skill yet to establish young player etc first, then I could live with it.
Tarasenko is an elite scorer when he’s on and a tank. Does he push the dial for the Oilers in the playoffs?
The biggest issue is 5v5. It isn’t in my opinion about not scoring, it’s about giving up too much, and few players that have finishing ability and a commitment to playing consistent D.
Does Tarasenko help that? I’m not sure. Saad, yes he would be brilliant. But I think the good American players will almost certainly sign in the US – Palmieri, Saad, Coleman.
I hope we can snag one, probably not. Killorn or Palat would work for me and those deals are there, and should be properly distressed asset deals because cap, for the taking.
I’m sure Holland understands that
a protection spot is worth gold
5.5 mil in cap space is worth a lot of gold
That’s what we are all hoping for too
Coffees_Messy_eh wrote:
“Why must I be emotionally attached to such an incompetently run, backward-looking franchise?”
HH starts & ends every day struggling with this exact same Rhetorical
I am honestly confused about the defence this year.
Klefbom starts it.
Poster George’s makes good points in regards to Larson – what player is Larson and what can we expect?
Ihave no idea what Bouchard is going to do.
No idea why Jones stumbled and why coach seems not to like him
Im worried about Barrie. We finally had something that worked well but we want to send him packing. I’m not sure about this. We had a Patrick Maroon who just worked out for 27 goals. He sailed on and then we could not replace him.
I thought the defence was shaping up but besides Nurse, there is so much uncertainty.
And the cowboy of course, he’s dependable – god luv him.
Dang! I’m getting down voted for being confused. I will try to be better.?
Jones wouldn’t get into shooting lanes on the PK.
I’m not sure how much we trust NST’s determination of what a giveaway is but it provides additional reasons for Jones not playing, and that’s in addition to egregious mistakes on poor offensive zone pinches (Tyson Barrie style) and the shooting lane thing which, of course, does potentially lead to a perception of the player not willing to do everything it takes.
Jones lost ice-time on merit.
I’m not saying he should have sat out for a month straight but there were many mistakes being made, nightly.
“No idea why Jones stumbled and why coach seems not to like him”
Answered your own question.
Tippett, in 19/20, put Jones in 43 games and he played well enough that the team and many others thought he could handle in 2nd pairing Left D spot in Klefbom’s absence. He flopped out of the gate in that role, and the team was 3-6 after 9 games. Tippett’s primary focus at that point is to right the ship and get the team in the playoffs, so Jones took a secondary role. He still averaged 13 minutes a night and played 27 games after that point, but other than the occasional flashes of what he can do, he did not play well enough that they went out and got Kulikov at the deadline. So it’s a little unfair to say Tippett didn’t like him when he played him in 76 games over the past 2 seasons. Jones played his way out of that role, its not the coaches fault.
Jones can skate and pass. Nice skills and shot share loves him. But team attacked his side with relish and he leaked grade A chances at an alarming rate. He was unable to break a cycle, defend the Rikibox, or block shots. You know, the other stuff dmen need to do, beside passing and skating. That’s why Tip did not value him.
This roster must have higher expectations this summer.
Stop with Tatar type risks, this is the same as Turris and others before. If another NHL team doesn’t want, need or use the player…. Plus we could have Kahun who would put up points but we recognize we need some other skills to balance the roster.
Koskinen / Neal – one is traded and one is bought out. If that works for the Keith deal then it becomes palatable.
Holloway. McDavid. Garland
Palat. Draisaitle. Yamamoto
Killorn. Nuge. Jessie P
Khaira. MaCloud. Kassian
Archibald. Benson
Replace incoming names with others that are available (Coleman, Kadri, maybe Jost or Debrusk) but shoot higher. Anything less will be a disappointing summer.
I like this lineup. Still no real shut down checking line in there, but most likely the bottom 6 will outscore.
“This roster must have higher expectations this summer.”
It’s like the old fable about the mice discussing what to do about the local cat…until finally one of the brighter ones suggests they put a bell around the cats’s neck.
Thing is, none of the mice want to be the mice who tries to put a bell around a cat’s neck.
Stop with the Tatar types and then you hitch the season to a raw rookie on the first line.
Tatar and Holloway completely different in risk, but yes I have HollowY winning a roster spot as the energy guy on the left side of two offensive talents.The idea being spread out skill sets and allow some more quality to win goal share in bottom 6.
The only way you could defend Tatar is a last minute bolster the roster type pick up. Which is not a bad idea, but better yet, sign Kahun as a back up skill player for 1M
Holloway will falter in an 82 game season, we know this, and when he does they will have all kinds of talent to move around. The roster will still be better with this rookie than without.
Reinhart is the guy I want. With all of Buffalo’s picks this year (6 in the top 100) and the uncertainty due to spotty scouting the Sabres might be interested in our 2022 1st round pick plus – wait for it 😉 – Bear.
Adjust for value since I am notoriously bad at valuing trades but something along those lines. It might cost the 1st plus Yamomoto but I would prefer it to be Bear.
Reinhart moves the needle imo.
And, yes, I want to have an extension discussed in advance to see if he is interested in staying in Edmonton.
And for all the hand wringing about Bear being cost controlled I don’t see that being long term. If he stays he is probably back with Nurse and Barrie is gone. What does his next contract look like after playing 1st pair defence? If he kills it he is going to get $3.5 to $4.5. If he fails he goes back to 3rd pair. He is one year away from losing his ‘cost controlled’ status imo.
I don’t think we’ve paid enough attention to how Buffalo might disrupt this offseason.
Along with all those draft picks you mentioned, they also will have about $45 million in cap space if both Eichel and Reinhart are moved as expected.
I would imagine they will also try and move along from Ristolainen and Okposo (not easy on this one) which would add another $10 million in cap space.
They will be in perfect position to absorb some short term dead money in return for young assets or additional draft picks.
I wonder if they would take Kassian and/or Koskinen for the right price….they might.
Pretty sure they would take both if the offer was strong enough. Buffalo is back on the long road unfortunately for them.
This, all day long.
Reinhart is the ideal target as 1RW. Can play 2C as necessary.
It moves Yamomoto and Puljujarvi down the lineup and creates some depth.
Buffalo may be interested in Bear as well, if they decide to move on from Ristolainen. They also need a goaler, so maybe Koskinen with retention is a possibility?
I’m very curious to see what Risto is like when removed from the Buffalo system.
I don’t think Turris was near 22nd in the NHL over the last three years in 5 on 5 points….
Leaked whiteboard photo taken from air register above Ken Hollands office:
Nurse Barrie
Keith Larsson
Chara Demers
Nurse is too young – you forgot to replace him!
I get a chuckle out the idea that 16 or so people didn’t see it as a joke.
😉
I used to struggle with Scott Adam’s (Dilbert cartoon) assertion that 30% of the population has no sense of humour because it seemed high to me but it might be Oilers’ fans that are driving up the number.
Chara would be pretty sweet though.
Recapture penalties. I really don’t know much about how they work. But from what I understand, Duncan Keith will hit Chicago with penalties if he retires.
If we trade for Keith, he has a poor year first year with the Oilers, and he decides to retire before playing the final year of his deal, do we get hit with recapture penalties too? And if so, how much?
No. Only the team that signed the contract is subject to the cap recapture penalty.
Then why are the Panthers hit with over 1M for Luongo next season?
That’s because I am wrong.
https://www.tsn.ca/luongo-retires-hitting-canucks-with-3-million-cap-recapture-penalty-1.1328964
The recapture penalties are apportioned between the teams that originally signed the player and any team that subsequently acquires him.
As noted, both Vancouver and Florida are still paying for Luongo.
One final season.
Hart Levine was on Stauffer’s show a couple days ago and he stated the penalty totals(it was multi millions)
I can’t remember the exact dollar amounts for Chicago, but interestingly enough the acquiring team (Edmonton) would get a cap CREDIT for the last year of the deal if Keith retires
He was the last guest on Friday’s show if you want to listen- I don’t have time to dig up the details
$7.5m Chicago?
Could be
I’m too lazy to go back and listen to the podcast
OP will be along shortly and he’ll fill in the details
PuckPedia
@PuckPedia
·
Jul 2
Interesting aspect with Duncan Keith, is if he’s traded & retires after 21-22:
-#Blackhawks would have $7.5M of recapture cap hit, allocated as $5.5M 22-23 & $2M 23-24
-New team has cap benefit/savings of $3.4M in 22-23
*Adjusted if there’s retained
Cool, thanks! That makes me worry less about the whole situation. I really hate dead cap. Cap credit would be pretty sweet.
Actually, the opposite, the Oilers would get a cap hit deduction and its material:
PuckPedia
@PuckPedia
·
Jul 2
Interesting aspect with Duncan Keith, is if he’s traded & retires after 21-22:
-#Blackhawks would have $7.5M of recapture cap hit, allocated as $5.5M 22-23 & $2M 23-24
-New team has cap benefit/savings of $3.4M in 22-23
*Adjusted if there’s retained
It’s interesting how the internet works.
Leavins says in a posting “I think Keith could earn $3-$3.5m. But I also do not believe that Chicago is interested in retaining that much. 25% is more in their ballpark. However, as I suggested earlier in the week the Hawks are likely willing to take a contract back (and then buy it out) instead.”
Then another site uses this exact quote from Leavins but their headline reads “LEAVINS SAYS CHICAGO IS WILLING TO TAKE A CONTACT BACK FOR DUNCAN KEITH”
This cannot be a surprise to you. 😉
not a surprise….just a reminder to check your sources
BLH is a content aggregator with misleading headlines.
I don’t mind the “possible lineup” at all aside from two items. I hope that the team aims higher than Tatar. Even if I squint, I cannot find a checking line that can stop elites in that forward group. I am tickled that in the above scenario, Kulikov has sailed on to somewhere near Andrew Ferrence house.
This mornings suggested roster would be completely unacceptable in a summer of expected improvement.
Tatar, Ryan and Kieth on the back end?
what a dog.
Woof!
Exactly this. If this is who we bring in I will be incredibly disappointed
why have one Turris when you can have multiple
@lowetide Where do place Colton Dach? He’s the same size as his older, more famous, brother. He has a bit more goal scoring and sand paper to his game, but lacks the playmaking and acceleration of his brother.
He has the pedigree. His rookie season was derailed by the pandemic (but I liked his rookie season more than his brothers) and he looked good on Robbins line in the bubble this season.
I think he’d fit well with Oilers and will have a big year in the dub this upcoming season.
Begin to populate a roster?
Isn’t that what we’ve been doing since the season ended?
Kurt Leavins 9 things…some nuggets about a Barrie return, Jones not being in great shape and cup rings being a new analytic.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/as-the-edmonton-oilers-learn-how-to-win-theres-a-lot-duncan-keith-could-teach-them-9-things/wcm/101f0ff9-6e96-4b76-9e9f-3cfa34132034/amp/
He mentions Bear not being in great shape coming into camp; nothing about Jones.
Yep…my mistake.
From the pictures that Bear posted last summer on social media, it appears that he was focused on bodybuilding. His upper body was noticeably thicker and pretty jacked. So likely not a lack of training; perhaps not hockey-specific training. Contrast that to the previous year when he trained in Edmonton, really focused on skating, and came to camp very lean and blew the doors off.
Leaving says the Oilers are fine with young guys like McLeod and Holloway in the bottom 6. No mention of Benson… probably means they see him as a top 6 solution right???
I think there is still a 50-50 chance they re-sign Barrie. My line in the sand is $4.5 M.
If Barrie will sign for 3-4 years at that number I think we see him back with Bear part of a trade for a top 6 winger.
I agree this is a definite possibility
If he’ll sign for that cap and term then I also agree he’ll be back.
Leavins was pretty clear that a Barrie signing would’t affect Larsson’s situation, so the implication is the deal wouldn’t be overly rich.
Have you read the comments on twitter responding to Leavins 9 things post?
Quite a few hints in there as to what he thinks the Oilers are up to. Far more than in the original post imo.
Which UFA dmen won’t come to Edmonton and, reading between the lines, all but says that he thinks Bear is traded if they can reach an agreement with Barrie.
I haven’t, but sounds like it’s worth a look. Thanks for the heads up.
Yeah, lots of reading between the lines stuff there, very interesting. If he’s right, the list of UFA 2LD available to Holland is rather short.
Also, Holland may indeed have Bowman at least in the vicinity of a barrel.
Thanks for pointing me in that direction.
Yeah. I have no idea who he gets insider info from or how close that person is to the major players but he definitely knows somebody who knows some things that go on with the Oiler’s brain trust.
One of the scouts maybe?
Yes, quite possibly. He mentioned hearing from 2 sources Holland was going to speak with Barrie I think, so likely there are multiple, with varying degrees of closeness.
As per jp’s G summaries and other analyses, I believe MK is still a mid tier goalie for an NHL team. He is just overpaid because Chiarelli. I don’t think he should be bought out. I think his confidence and the teams confidence in him is toast which leads to some uncertainty for Oil this year. He could still have a decent year as part of a 1A/1B here if he isn’t thrown to the wolves as he was for most of last year with coach’s deployment of him (and injuries to MS with no viable alternative for 3G due to management error).
if the Oilers could find a decent G (Driedger), it makes sense to try and include MK in a trade for Keith. I think MK would have value to CBH. He could be part of a 1A/1B there.
If the hawks retain ~25-35% on Keith, is that enough to make this a hockey trade for both teams? Keith has another year on his contract. Should that warrant additional considerations for the Oilers to get more? e.g.,A 2nd or 3rd round pick next year?
something involving Strome is also tempting but if I were KH I would check in with McD. If Strome could get back on track with his childhood buddy’s team that would be a win. But significant risk here and with the Keith move really helping the CBH. So this potential move should not include significant assets going out. Maybe CBH would retain 33% as a throw in…? Would that be a better option than seeking a draft pick with Keith?
I generally really like the looks of the line up LT! If they can put this together to start the season with Samorukov coming up mid season (or earlier) that would be groovy. If Holloway can break the line up at camp that would be awesome. Benson definitely deserves a shot to start in the bottom 6. i would swap Kass and Archie
interesting few weeks ahead…!!!
Still not sure why the Oilers are discarding Jones. Is it because of a disconnect with Tippet? If Larsson wants to play here, as it has been reported, then it should be simple enough to wait until after the draft to sign him. Seattle isn’t taking Klefbom with all the uncertainty surrounding him. Protect Nurse, Bear, and Jones and hope that the Kraken pick Lagesson instead of Benson.
Protect Benson and the Kraken will then take Kahun. Use Jones in a trade with CBH to somehow get Keith and Kubalik.
Forwards: 97, 29, RNH, JP, KY, Benson, Kubalik
Defence: Nurse, Bear, Larsson
Goalie: Skinner
Yes. If you are trading with Chicago, Kubalik should have always been the target. This guy is inconsistent but has a killer shot.
The Hawks love Kubalik. 1st line player for them.
Strome….not so much.
If I could only upgrade one position off of that roster, it would be 3C. Not a big fan of 34yr old 5’10” Derek Ryan. He’s ok. Meh.
Im curious to know if Oilers Mgt are, for the coming season, looking to create a 3rd line that plays primarily a defensive style, prevents goals against and saws off against the competition; or, conversely, an offensive minded line that outscores the competition?
I’m not sure this team can make playoff noise without a complete and solid checking line that wins faceoffs, and shuts down elites…
Okay, so I’ve been letting my Keith angst/dread build up and it can no longer be contained. Sorry.
The scenario: The Chicago Blackhawks have an decorated but aging defenseman who has apparently said he’d like to go to either Edmonton, Vancouver, or Seattle for family reasons. That’s nothing new. The player evaluations, with which I’m sure you’re all familiar, are not kind to the player. He’s playing first pairing minutes/matchups and struggling, as decorated but aging players tend to, also nothing new. His contract carries a significant cap hit but not much cash.
Where this scenario diverges is that, allegedly, Chicago wants to not take any money back in this trade, which strikes me as hilariously bold. How Ken Holland can listen to Stan Bowman pitch this idea for more than 3 minutes without saying “Stan, I love you as one of the 200 stalwart HockeyMen, but here are a couple of comparable situations where a team has wanted out of a decorated but aging player on a big contract:”
“So, Stan, if you’re looking to make good by Duncan that’s nice of you, but we are not in a position to help you out if you’re not going to make it worth our while. Good day to you, sir” is beyond me.
—
Now, in trying to be balanced about this, here are the factors that apparently Edmonton is considering. They appear to have been leaking information to the press with reckless abandon, something that strikes me as them protesting a little too much. Anyway:
Let’s go through those in order:
Has there been a more stark example that the Oilers do not value any kind of player data other than HE WIN BEFORE HE GOOD LONG AGO HE NEED BE ON OUR TEAM?
Sorry for the long post. Why must I be emotionally attached to such an incompetently run, backward-looking franchise?
Strong post.
I wouldn’t touch Keith unless Debrincat is coming with him.
Or Kubalik. The kid has Mcdavid winger written all over him.
To answer your last question. WE all are – that’s why we are here on a hockey blog on a beautiful Sunday morning in the the summer! Please note that LT posted the article and now has vanished from the Al Gore to enjoy his day. #becauseOilers
I’m not so sure that the media is as connected to the Oilers inner circle as they once were. There was no talk of Nuge settling for a 5.1 AAV and most reports had it much higher or even him walking away. I am sure that Holland realizes the bidding competition for Keith is almost non existent, and Ken is nothing if not patient.
Jettisoning Jones and bringing in Keith at anything but a fraction of his current cap hit will be a backwards step for the team and give us a clearer picture of the team’s current administration. Holland needs to take full advantage of his bargaining leverage or just walk away.
True. Leavins was saying either 1 or 2 weeks before the Nuge signing that they were looking at a total of $30 million for the contract. He wasn’t even close so either he’s being fed bull (which would be a nice change for Oilers management) or he’s reading a little too much into the tea leaves.
Duncan Keith’s $5,538,462 cap hit is a paper number only.
He will actually get paid $2.1 and $1.5 Million in the next two years, I don’t understand how paying a guy $1.8 Million for two years is considered a huge gamble.
Meanwhile they are paying Andrej Sekera $3 Million over those same two years to NOT play for them.
The paper number is what matters as that is what is used against the salary cap. Actual dollars matter only to Katz and the player. If the Oilers were to take on Keith then a big portion of the salary cap AAV needs to be taken by Chicago or someone else besides the Oilers.
Does this mean that the most Chicago can retain is $3.6M over the two years? If they retain more would they then have to send cash to the Oilers in excess of the 2.1 and 1.5 In the respective year.
When discussing retention, think of it in terms of a percentage
And then apply the percentage to both the cap hit, and the monies owed
Keith 21/22
$5.5 cap at 50% retained = $2.75 cap
$2.1 real dollars owed at 50% retained = $1.05 real dollars
Ketih 22/23
$5.5 cap at 50% retained = $2.75 cap
$1.5 real dollars owed at 50% retained = $750k real dollars
Thanks
Its a percentage.
They can retain up to 50% – which would 50% of the cap hit and 50% of physical dollars.
Ummmmm, because his cap hit is $5.5M…… not $2.1M or $1.5M.
I don’t care what they are paying any particular player, I care about the cap number.
Bold prediction. NO ONE takes Keith’s contract without cap relief. Another bold prediction. Keith logs at least 15-18 minutes a game on some team. Caleb Jones is a third pairing dman on some team, maybe. The value in Jones is in the future, not next season.
“They are in love with the fact he has multiple Stanley cup rings”
So he “knows a thing or two about winning”. Isn’t that what’s important to this club?
That’s right.
There is this LHDman we know who has 6 rings and would seem to fit within the age demographic Holland likes. Would also probably come cheaper than Keith.
Keith = Andrew Ference 2.0
Blah blah experience
Blah blah Stanley cup
Blah blah super fit
Blah blah leadership
#1 really is the key to all this.
There’s widespread belief that Keith can no longer play effective 2nd pair minutes, never mind 1st pair minutes.
If you believe that to be true then it makes sense to search for other reasons and conclude Holland and the Oilers are overvaluing various intangibles here.
IMO the various ‘evaluations’ presented on the player are far from conclusive. I think there’s a very good chance he can still handle, even thrive, as 2LD on a team like the Oilers. Unfortunately there’s no way to know for sure until/unless it happens.
Anyway, a person’s opinion/conclusion on point 1 has a huge effect on everything else in the equation.
It may be important to note that the franchise has NOT actually made this move.
Just like the organization did NOT trade Bouchard and a 1st for OEL last off-season even though its was criticized quite heavily for the “transaction”.
OP, I know you’re replying to this set of comments and replied to mine, but you should try not to do that while then quoting someone else’s post.
Anyway, yes, clearly it’s best to remain somewhat calm about potential moves given that they haven’t happened yet, and we don’t know what the details will be even if such moves do come to fruition.
I will often respond to the last post in a thread (in particular a thread from quite earlier in the day) to lower the risk of it “getting lost” in the middle of a long thread.
As we all know, threaded comments are often “less than ideal” for dialogue and conversation.
I did make the mistake of not putting in the author of the quoted post and I apologize.
Total fantasy land, I know, but I would love it if the Oilers could bring in Getzlaf. I wonder if you could sell it to the player as a chance at another cup?
Agree that’s unlikely, but would be cool for a year or two.
Getzlaf has made his $. If what still motivates him is $, pass. But if he’s willing to come in on a Spezza-like deal… why not?
Yeah, he would definitely be a nice 3C if he were interested. Worth a call.
From accounts (I believe Friedman but could be wrong, it may have been Frank), there is all but zero chance he’s leaving Southern California.
Getzlaf is like going James Neal 2.0, the guy is past due date, DO NOT TOUCH!
I am struggling with Tatar. He seems like a good guy to get 20+ goals in the regular season, but is no one else worried about a guy who was healthy scratched in the playoffs by two different teams?
Just seems there are better options out there.
Struggling with Tartar?
1) Brush regularly, twice a day for 2 minutes a time. …
2) Choose a toothpaste with fluoride.
3) Floss, floss, floss. …
4) Rinse daily. …
5) Watch your diet. …
6) Don’t smoke.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eySDeBdqxGY
Tatar is out with an injury.
Is he? Montreal dressed him for the warm-ups against Vegas during a home game last round because they had another forward who was a game-time decision.
I was confused by this, did some research, and I don’t think he is injured. However, it does appear this is the second team that was comfortable scratching him in the playoffs. The other being VGK, which doesn’t sit well with me.
The Oilers have a core that will get them into the playoffs. Playoff success is the next step, and I do not believe Tatar is a player that can be relied on for playoff success.
The premise of Tatar is lower price and short term.
Of course, Saad would be “better” but the contracts would look nothing similar.
Saad is guaranteed playoff season production, Tatar isn’t built for post season production.
As i said “Saad would be better” but we’d be looking at double the AAV and term in to regression years.
I think back to how Stoll and Torres broke into the league as Oilers and hope to see something similar with McLeod and Benson.
Put them together as 2/3 of a 4th line and it allows us to take advantage of some built in chemistry together while sheltering their minutes.
Anyone on the roster would probably be a better 3rd than Laraque, but Kassian would probably be my 1st choice on account of him not being completely devoid of offensive ability. Archibald would work just as well though.
Kahun* – McDavid – Puljujarvi
Nuge – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
Khaira – Jenner** – Archibald
Benson – McLeod – Kassian
*I don’t see us actually running Kahun on the top line, but I’m also hoping we sign Hamilton so we may have to keep the dollars down.
**Jenner is a pipe dream, but I just love the idea of him as our 3C and possible LW in the top 6
Most, if not all, drafts are somewhat of a crap shoot (players like 97 notwithstanding). This year edition is even more so due to the uneven playing time that most North American prospects were able to get. I thought the Tulio pick last year was an inspired get and look forward to what the Oilers staff do this year.
I am really intrigued by Ostapchuk; local guy, big kid already over 200 lbs, young for his class and posted NHLe of 16.5. Because he is so young I compared him to some familiar players in their draft-1 year.
Lavoie – 21.6 pts/82
Savoie – 15.5 pts/82
McLeod – 16.4 pts/82
If the Oilers could get him with their 4th round selection that could be a home run.
That roster though clearly not a cup contender, does look like the next logical step forward.
Why not a cup contender? The only powerhouse currently in the NHL is the about to be decimated TBL. When you have 97, a decent team (and this looks like one) is a contender. Habs are proving the old adage of ‘get in and see what happens’. Every summer I think the Oilers can do it – been wrong for many, many years but hope springs eternal.
Playoff contender, yes.
Cup contender, no way in H E double hockey sticks.
Because there is no shut down checking line. Hell, that team above can’t even win a faceoff unless Drai is on the ice. Ryan would be a nice stop/gap addition but can he shut down elites and win the important faceoffs? I highly doubt.
Ryan can win faceoffs. The other part is much less clear.
I wonder how many thought Montreal had a cup contending roster 14 weeks ago and yet here they are in the Finals.
Yeah, up 0-3
lol
Laugh all you want, that are still in the Cup Finals. That’s better than how many teams?
I guess it is if the next logical step is loading the roster up with guys who are under 6 feet and/or soft as pillows. A roster with Tatar, RNH, Yamo, Archie, and Ryan in the top 9 would get rolled and destroyed in the playoffs. Most players in your top 9 need all three of speed, skill and size. Maybe you get away with 2 smaller/softer players. But four of these type in the top 9 is the opposite of becoming a cup contender.
I take it you have not looked at the TBL roster recently..
Exactly, TBL finished first then got rolled in the first round, retooled with a much more rugged lineup to handle the playoff style of play, and are on their way to two cups in a row.
They retained way more than 2 smaller forwards though. They’ve got a bunch.