One of my guests yesterday on the Lowdown was Brian Wilde from Global Montreal. Near the end of our conversation about who will get Sam Pollock’s old office, Wilde threw out a trade idea. It involved Montreal retaining half of the Carey Price contract and Edmonton sending Dylan Holloway east.
Comments arrived at the TSN1260 inbox fast and furious. I didn’t express an opinion because we don’t know how Price will be playing at the deadline and the same can be said about Holloway.
Later in the day, it was announced Jake DeBrusk has asked for a trade and the Bruins are working on a deal. That is a subject I’m prepared to discuss.
THE ATHLETIC
- New Lowetide: The Oilers won often in November, but is their roster built to keep winning this way?
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ prospect pipeline has produced 2 call-ups on defence this season. Who’s next?
- DNB: What I think and what I know about the Oilers through their first 20 games
- Lowetide: How promising is the Oilers’ Russian prospect pool?
- DNB: Could Leon Draisaitl score 50 goals in 50 games?
- Lowetide: How the Oilers most pressing needs have changed since the offseason
- DNB: Tales from the days Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan McLeod, Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson were minor league roommates
- DNB: For Emily Cave, Colby’s widow, a trip back to Boston is about memories, love and legacy
- Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl even better than we think? A look at his stunning historic comparables
- DNB: Philip Broberg’s first NHL game was as special as he’d hoped
- Lowetide: Philip Broberg is ready for his NHL audition
- Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto is still on the Oilers’ No. 2 line
- Lowetide: Three auditioning Oilers who are finding their groove and hope to find their place
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers move Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to the 3rd line?
JAKE DEBRUSK
I liked Jake DeBrusk in his draft year, had him inside the top 20 overall. When the Bruins took him a little higher than my projection, didn’t bat an eye. Boston scouts are good, and DeBrusk’s skill set and track record would have been attractive to them.
The thing is, as a player ages without establishing himself, things can get difficult DeBrusk is 25 now, he plays a position Edmonton covered off at considerable expense just this summer. His cap hit is significant. Here are the Oilers skill wingers points-per-60 at five-on-five per season, with DeBrusk inserted.
Puljujarvi, Foegele and Hyman are the current leaders this season, and it’s interesting that Foegele has been a more productive offensive player than DeBrusk for three years running. Of course, they’re playing different roles, but DeBrusk is also the same age and more expensive.
If Edmonton trades for DeBrusk, moving Hyman to right wing and running the top two lines as DeBrusk-McDavid-Hyman and Nuge-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi would be a reasonable idea. Of course, running Foegele on the top two lines would be worth trying before making this kind of trade.
Bottom line: DeBrusk can post offense and I expect he’ll have success wherever he goes. The Oilers have left wing taken care of now, last summer was the time to trade for DeBrusk.
TRACERS
Do you remember the 1996-97 Oilers wingers? It was an interesting time because the team had talented wingers with various skills and couldn’t find room for all of them. It’s fun to look back and see what the numbers at that time were telling us about these men and their possible futures.
- Dean McAmmond: He was a nice prospect (a role player on the ’93 WJC team for Canada), lots of speed and skill but there were injuries early on (back troubles). He was gritty and could score goals in bunches.
- Bill Guerin: He was a force on right wing, very talented, big and mean. As good as Arnott was, and Arnott was a center, Slats did well to get No. 1 RW Guerin. He would deliver time and again during his (too short) stay with the Oilers.
- Todd Marchant: Marchant was a good center when the Oilers had a bunch of good young ones who were just ahead of him. He had blazing speed and he could score some, and he played at wing during his early years with the team.
- Andrei Kovalenko: “The Tank” was a brick on skates with good hands. Highly entertaining, he was also extremely effective in 1996-97 (32 goals for Edmonton) but fell off in the year we’re viewing. Scored four goals in the 1997 playoffs, you may remember one or two.
- Mike Grier: A truly awesome player, he would spend several years as an effective third-line winger with Marchant and Ethan Moreau. A crash and bang winger with good scoring skills, he never took a shift off during his time as an Oiler, often playing with a banged up shoulder.
- Ryan Smyth: He scored 91 goals his last two seasons of junior, he played motivated and early on he got results in the NHL (20 PP goals early on). Ryan Smyth was a crowd favorite very early on.
- Rem Murray: They don’t use “utility forward” as a phrase much anymore, but then again they don’t make many Rem the Gem types nowadays either. He could play wing or center, all three game states, and often looked as good as the guy he was replacing.
Here are their 1997-98 even-strength points-per-60 via NHL.com:
- Dean McAmmond 24 (2.01)
- Bill Guerin 27 (1.61)
- Todd Marchant 24 (1.57)
- Andrei Kovalenko 27 (1.33)
- Mike Grier 23 (1.33)
- Ryan Smyth 21 (1.19)
- Rem Murray 25 (1.19)
The finest offensive wingers in this group were Guerin and Smyth, the rest would spend time in the middle six (second and third lines) as opposed to top six. Marchant at center proved to be a valuable piece for the organization and Grier was a flat out perfect third-line winger. McAmmond played forever, bounced around a lot, not because he had little value but because teams looking for speed, skill and some jump could get all three in one deal.
This era’s Oilers wingers aren’t as varied as the 90’s bunch, but there’s real skill there and the addition of Hyman and Foegele gives the group more quality and depth. We’re seeing separation between the two young wingers now, Puljujarvi being asked to take on bigger jobs and Yamamoto appearing to be headed to a middle-six role.
If I’m Ken Holland, keeping both Puljujarvi and Yamamoto is good business. There are some interesting names on the horizon on right wing, but none are close and none appear to have the range of JP and KY. Fans frustration with a player in a single season or portion of a season doesn’t take into account the big picture.
I do think Mr. Yamamoto will spend some time on the third line at points this season. The only way Edmonton deals for DeBrusk is if Zack Kassian is heading out, and the lines could land like this:
- DeBrusk-McDavid-Puljujarvi
- Nuge-Draisaitl-Hyman
- Foegele-McLeod-Yamamoto
- Shore-Ryan-Sceviour
I don’t believe Jake DeBrusk is coming to Edmonton. I expect Boston will send him away to a team that can afford to take on cap, thus allowing the Bruins to add a veteran.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s a busy day on the Lowdown, we get started at 10 on TSN1260. Tyler Yaremchuk from Oilers Nation and Daily Faceoff will pop in at 10:40 and give us the state of the team after 20 games. Dean Cordeiro, head coach of MacEwan Griffins Women’s Soccer National Champions, will join us to talk about a stunning and heroic win over powerhouse schools on the way to MacEwan’s first ever U SPORTS National Championship won by MacEwan since moving from the CCAA to U SPORTS seven years ago. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Wait.
Carolina lost, Florida won…
So the Oilers are tied for 1st in the league (Pts%).
Figured it was worth mentioning since it might not be long lived with the 4 rookie D.
The good news is that the Oilers don’t have much in the way of “guys who need a change of scenery” on the roster. A pick for Debrusk also can’t work with our cap situation. The only roster players I see as trade possibilities are Kass and Yamo.
Kass is flawed, but if we trade him, we will immediately be looking for pretty much the exact same type of player (big, fast, aggressive winger). We need more of this type on the bottom 6 not less or guys like Debrusk.
Yamo is an option I guess but Debrusk is worse defensively which doesn’t help. Only way it works with the cap is if you can send more contract back along with Yamo (like Turris).
At this point I don’t really care if he goes to an opposition team as I’ve just had to many “seen him bad” moments involving Debrusk in games we have played against the Bruins. I’d rather swap Yamo for a 3C at the deadline if Holloway looks like he will be able to contribute by the end of the season.
I don’t understand that though-process of Yamo for DeBrusk.
Even with his middling production, Yamamoto makes the team better than DeBrusk would (most likely, in my opinion).
Not to mention, Yamamoto is “under team control” and will be looking at a fairly marginal raise after a low qualifying offer. Even is a contract was agreed to with DeBruks for half his current cap hit, that’s a risk and more expensive than what Kailer is likely to be.
If there is any DeBrusk for Yamo type deal, it would have to have a second legit asset coming back to the Oilers, no?
I don’t see Debrusk as the answer to any of the questions keeping the Oilers from winning it all. We need more of what we added to top lines (Hyman, JP) in the bottom 6 – and guys who fit a 4th line job description (big, fast, relentless, defensively solid). Not Perlini and Turris.
If we trade Yamo – then it has to be for a bigger player. Love the kid’s heart but he can’t try play a big man’s game against top forwards in the playoffs and survive let alone score. Could he do it in the bottom 6 – maybe – but I don’t think he wants to give up trying to play top 6 until it’s obvious it won’t work. Wish the kid well but I’m not sure he can survive in the top 6 role he’s trying to fill.
Interested to watch this guy when we play MIN as he was a forward that I was interested in as our 4C last summer. Too bad MIN is almost certainly a playoff team as he is the kind of guy who could help at the deadline.
https://www.nhl.com/player/frederick-gaudreau-8477919?stats=career-r-all&season=null
Tip was on Oilers Now today and mentioned that both Russell and Broberg are options for the right side but there will likely be some moving/flipping around to ensure they are getting the right people out at the right times.
Goals against 5 on 5 is an area that needs improving. Some of it is settling down on D-group but some of it needs real improvement.
I’ve been bitching about the lack of this game, one they could play last year, since the first game of this season.
That second half of the back-to-back against the Airplanes was encouraging though. But we need to see it done more and even better,
Brendan Lemieux suspended 5 games for in game dining
Department of Player Safety finally handing down a penalty that has some teeth to it.
Why that’s very funny Randal, there is a career in headline writing waiting for you.
Unbelievable comeback game in Florida.
Washington had a 4-1 lead after 2 but the Panthers score the winner 5-4 with 10 seconds left.
https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/nyr-vs-edm/2021/11/05/2021020158#game=2021020158,game_state=final
One of your teams beat another one of your teams. Was it bitter sweet?
One of my team’s bests another of my teams in every game since I don’t, in fact, have any “my teams”.
In other news, Drew Doughty is back in the Kings lineup after missing 12 games.
Quinton Byfield is also ahead of schedule and may play later this week.
Before tonight, the Kings have only played 1 game within the Pacific Division and now will have a prime chance to move up the standings.
I recall all these standings movement predictions based on schedule:
I recall late last season, the flames were poised for a run up the standings – note: never happened.
I recall a few weeks in to this season when the Oilers were poised for a run down the standings as the schedule got tougher – note: Oilers are now tied for 1st in the NHL in points percentage.
In other news…
Nobody gives a fuck.
Nobody gives a shit.
Ice a little tilted in the 3rd period. SOG 27-2 Panthers. Yikes.
Yeah the Panthers just went balls to the wall in the 3rd…very impressive performance.
Myself and a few other posters really wanted Bennett while the thrift sale was on for his services. How hard would it have been for Holland to do a three-way for Bennett who would look mighty fine in our top 6.
The Flames were not trading us Bennet
Probably why he said three way.
As far as the potential for Nurse or Keith to play on Friday, per Nugent Bowman: “Holland said Nurse and Keith are at least a week away from playing again”
https://theathletic.com/2990038/2021/11/30/oilers-turn-to-markus-niemelainen-with-blue-line-hit-by-injuries-and-covid-19-protocol/
Nick Kypreos
@RealKyper
·
6h
No shortage of interest for @NHLBruins
Jake DeBrusk including @EdmontonOilers
and @NHLFlames
Also in the mix @Canes
and @StLouisBlues
@FAN590
@NHL
I wonder if Jake has a shooter’s mentality?
Well, he’s been booed by the fans in Boston tonight…..
I wonder how many
“Get outta heah yah fahkin loosah!’
Jake had to endure from the fans in Boston.
…and that was from the well-heeled crowd in Ben Affleck’s skybox.
Wicked smaht comment.
https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1465694947328229386?s=21
finally advanced stats showing us what we knew all along
Kris Russell is a very high end puck moving defenseman.
Wait What???
I totally recall him in the world juniors and he was a offensive force…
Uhh..
That’s what playing with Adam Larsson will do??
I feel like he’s been moving the puck well and getting involved more in the O this season, but I’d be lying if I said I saw that last year.
Vindicated yet again!
So assuming tomorrow night’s game goes ahead (greater uncertainty than normal right now) the Oilers will likely entertain the Penguins with a defense of Russell, Barrie, Bouchard, Lagesson, Broberg and Niemelainen. The Penguins are not the high powered offense of a few years ago, especially with Malkin not quite back yet, but Lagesson, Broberg and Niemelainen with a combined 33 games of NHL experience will together get to face Sydney Crosby for the first time. Bouchard was on the ice against Sid for a total of 40 seconds out of 8 minutes that he played against the Penguins back in 2018 before being returned to juniors. What a challenge for the inexperienced 4 (Crosby will be a challenge for Russel and Barrie too, but not new for them).
And on a side note, for Neimelainen’s first game in the NHL, it is in a game with Crosby and McDavid going head to head. What a memory that could be for him even if he watches them on the ice mostly from the bench.
Get up, Jake Sooly!
Team Canada will announce their WJHC training camp roster on the morrow.
Will The Bourg assimilate his way onto the roster?
I presume he will make it (but will probably have a depth role like recent Oiler prospects on the team – Lavoie and Holloway).
I’d be shocked to see either Tulio or Savoie named.
I would like to see his biological distinctiveness added to our own.
Nicely done.
Holland should just get Ennis back from Ottawa and tell Jake and crew to take their show to Vancouver.
Jack Hughes 8x8m
That’s Draisaitl territory.
You’re right, that’s a bargain for NJ. They’re going to be a load in the next few years.
You are kidding me. This guy deserves what Leon makes? In what world?
It’s been 4 years since the Draisatl contract was signed. He’s getting $2 million less a year than Eichel, and $250k less a year than Brady Tkachuk. I’d say that’s right around where he should be.
The Draisatl contract is a blessing as we all know.
In the same world that Leon deserves what McDavid makes?
There is big risk in that contract, for sure. I think all would agree he’s not worth anywhere near that at this time.
I presume management is thinking that, coming out of a 2-3 year bridge, with a rising cap (presumably), he’ll be a star and worth more.
I’m not sure I agree with them but I’m sitting in my office drafting and negotiating credit terms not compensation structures.
The kid has 20 goals and 35 assists in 119 career games. He’s 5 ft 10 and weighs a buck seventy. You think he’s a bargain at $64 million?
We signed Nuge to a $6MX6 deal after a 52-in-62 season and a 24-in-40 season. A total of 76-in-102. I thought that was a bit of a reach at the time.
Hughes has proven way less (55-in-119) than Nuge had proven after his second year.
Was Nuge worth his $6MX6 deal? Maybe, sorta. Will Hughes be worth 33% more? I doubt it.
New Jersey signed Nico Hischier for a long time at $7.25M per. Hischier has scored at almost exactly a 52-point pace in each of his 5 seasons. That’s not good value.
High draft pedigree is no guarantee. Hischier, Nolan Patrick, Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kaako, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Dylan Strome. Buyer beware.
You guys really struggle with inflation don’t you? 😀
I should point out that I have Jack Hughes in ALL 3 of my Dynasty NHL leagues. ALL IN ON THE HUGHES TRAIN! CHOO CHOO!
For anyone interesting, Gregor’s new piece at OilersNation has some great SportLogiq stats on the Oilers players including the following:
Expected Goals = XG
Ozone possession time= OZP
Shot attempts= SA
Shots on goal = SOG
Slots shots = SS
Inner slot shots = ISS
Rush chances = RC
Cycle chances = CC
Forecheck chances = FC
Rebound chances = RC
Slot pass completions = SPC
Zone entry and exit info as well including outlet pass completion, stretch pass completions, d-zone pass completion, etc.
https://oilersnation.com/2021/11/30/how-good-are-the-edmonton-oilers/
Fascinating stuff OP, thanks.
Ceci shows remarkably well by these metrics, possibly our best D-man. Props to Holland for that signing.
Bouchard also looks very good for a young man. And Russell looks surprisingly good for an old man.
Not too many surprises among the forwards, other than Hyman showing very well at underlying numbers (much as he was advertised). If he can somehow do that for another 6.5 years, that deal will be great value.
McDrai, unsurprisingly, are off the charts. (But the expected goals indicates that we probably shouldn’t expect 50 in 50 from the German Gretzky. He’s not *that* far off the charts.)
Russell is talked about in Dom’s top 25 puck moving d-men at The Athletic today……
Broberg plays RHD.
RD
Red Deer?
Some refer to shot or side as left or right handed, left or right hand.
Handedness is not the same as shot or side. If you’re left handed you get the ruler on the knuckles.
No in North America he hasn’t and, of note, when he was on a leftie/leftie pairing in Bakersfield, he played the left side.
Yeah, I’d posit that Russell is the most likely to slide over to the right, he’s a vet and has experience there.
Or I guess they could get funky and move Lagesson onto the right side? He’s slid ove more than a few times from my Bakersfield memories.
Russell-Barrie
Broberg-Bouchard
Niemalainen-Lagesson
(or possibly Russell-Bouch/Broberg-Barrie)
Regardless I’d bet Niemalainen-Lagesson form a sparingly used 3rd pair.
Broberg/Russell
Lagesson/Bouchard
Niemelainen/Barrie
We’ll see 🙂
Rob T. had some quotes from Holland and it sounds like the rapid tests all came back clean from the rest of the team but the more reliable PCR test results won’t be in until morning.
Reasonable chance this is an isolated case.
Might not even be a case, he’s just in protocol.
Really hoping this ends up being the case.
My son was in Quebec last week and took his test to come back to the States. Positive. There was no way he was positive. He asked for a second test, they refused and reported him to Quebec who immediately started harassing him to quarantine. After taking a test and passing to get into Canada, he had spent 5 days with his grandfather and housekeeper only. In friggin’ Chicoutimi. They took tests, negative. The authorities basically showed up to enforce the quarantine. He rented a car, drove back to the US and immediately took a PCR test. Negative. In Quebec they had the audacity to tell him their test was 100% certain….. Hopefully Ceci is good to go.
Always pay the $ and get the PCR
PCR tests cost zero in the US. Within a mile of my place here in Miami I have five choices for PCR tests. No appointment, show up with ID. Get test, result in less than 24 hours. Free.
Speaking of orphans…not interested in giving up Yamo, but could you convince Boston that Benson is worth a shot at a new start? I’m not sure he is ever going to get a chance to play a regular role here. So do you ship him (along with some salary of course) to Boston for another LW in Debrusk? You have all year to determine if he fits and if you want to keep him on your team or not. Holland has already shown the willingness to walk away from expensive RFA contracts he trades for in the past (Athanasiou).
Bottom line, are you a better team, and have a better shot in playoffs with Debrusk vs Benson THIS YEAR, as neither would be likely to be on team next year?
I think we have more need for a RH 3rd line Center to push Mcleod or Ryan down.
To me they need less GA than more GF. Benson is a solid defensive player, and may very likely end up scoring as much as DeBrusk would on the Oiler’s 4th line.
benson might have a greater upside and be more of an all round threat…lets not give up on him just yet..I have enjoyed his bit of snarl on the ice and his passing and IQ are very evident…
Jake is one of the softest players in the league, sorry Louie.
The OIlers need cheap contracts. Benson may be a player on a cheap contract for a few more years.
Debrusk is a rental because of the number that he has to be qualified at. The OIlers cannot afford him next year period.
Benson has a floor with potential upside and is cheap.
Debrusk’s ceiling is known will significant downside risk and is expensive.
Trading Benson for Debrusk is selling low (on a stock with upside) to buy high (on a stock with mostly only downside).
It always surprises me the weight given to a simple G A Pts stat line which gives no indication of defensive contribution or PP effect, let alone the randomness of goals (when I first began reading LoweTide it was all about a players Corsi so there has been some some progress I guess).
DeBrusk: — 2021 — 41 5-9-14 +1 (3-6-9 +1 excluding PP).
Yamo for all his struggles to put up points – 2021 52 8-13-21 (7-11-18 excl PP) last season – was +9. Comfortably the third best forward on the team after the dynamic duo. Why would you consider bumping Yamo for DeBrusk?
All the stats have limitations — my preference is the focus on Grade A chances for / against, but that is another post – but to base this discussion around G A Pts seems too limited. Off to work!
Isn’t Debrusk basically Spooner or AA?
I think the Oilers need to add guys that do something when they aren’t scoring.
Condors Wednesday game postponed
They’ll never play again.
Nick Kyprios
No shortage of interest in Jake Debrusk
Including Edmonton, Calgary, St. Louis, and Carolina
Just to add on, per Condors:
Due to COVID-19 protocols affecting the Condors, tomorrow’s game in Stockton has been postponed. #Condorstown
Yeah, we’re one goal-for shy of the league lead with 1-2 games at hand, have three goalies with save percentages over .910, and are a Tweet or two away from running an entirely rookie defence corps, but hey, let’s spend assets on Debrusk (potential bust) or Price (who is dealing with both knee and hip issues).
Maybe the league asked us nicely with the proviso we would get different refereeing!😉
Ok, so the defence is challenged on the experience side. Realistically 4 rookies if you include Bouchard.
Pairings (NHL games played)
Broberg (4) – Barrie (630)
KRusty (890) – Bouchard (41)
Wild Bill (29) – Niemelainen (35 AHL games)
5v5: Play the hell out of the top-4 and hope the 3rd pairing can give you 8 minutes without getting caved.
PP: Barrie stays on the whole time (score quickly McLeon)
PK: KRusty – Bouchard is ok, but what about a second pairing? DO NOT TAKE ANY PENALTIES TOMORROW!
GOG
So, LT, you don’t think the Bruins would be interested in Yamamoto for DeBrusk?
DeBrusk $3.675 / 2 = $1.8375 for Yamo $1.175
Kailer is not a Holland draft pick. Kailer is an orphan No?
I would rather have Yamamoto for his PK work, general defense and his hustle. Jake D brings none of those things.
Respectfully, that wasn’t the question Elgin; As far as the question goes, what you or I want is irrelevant.
So I’ll ask you again, would the Bruins be interested in a Kailer for DeBrusk deal?
Sure. Yamamoto is a far better value for money this year and is cheap to qualify, and likely cheap to re-sign. He is also a far more useful player.
They would take that deal in a country second. They get Yamamoto for free.
Debrusk is a free agent at the end of this year, and has been benched by his coach. He has no value, you could get him for low round picks. He would pass through waivers.
We’ll revisit when the deal goes down.
I’m confident you’re going to be surprised.
I think Cassandra is right. He would not be claimed on waivers and has almost no trade value.
I think DeBrusk would be claimed on waivers as there is no commitment to the player past this season.
Lots of teams with cap space could certainly claim in him (SEA, OTT, BUF) and see if there is some rebound in his game and potentially try and sign him for a lower AAV 2-3 year deal.
If he continues to play poorly, or without requisite effort, they just let him go to free agency.
If the Oilers had ample cap room, claiming him would be fine.
Well, NHL general managers don’t have a reputation for being smart. You’d have to have the trifecta of desperate, dumb, and have cap space to trade more than a 3rd round pick for Debrusk.
Does anyone fit that description?
If he is traded it is because there is a depressed asset going the other way. The combination of his contract, his performance, and the current situation means he has negative trade value.
I would trade Kassian for him.
You are wrong
Have you been speaking to my wife?
Simple answer is who cares!
You don’t care about Kailer Yamamoto?
Who cares about what Boston wants for Debusk. This is especially true if the ask is Yamamoto or Holloway for that matter. Either players is an overpay given Debrusks cap hit and qualifying offer required. Cap has to be a consideration given players with expiring contracts and the Keith cap hit for one more year.
DeBrusk is a middle six rental who can’t PK, because he is superexpensive to qualify. Yamamoto is a cheap middle six two-way winger who can PK, with not much of a raise coming his way.
Good answer.
So now, if we can find a way to mitigate the DeBrusk AVV, does it look a little closer?
Why would the Oilers even consider such a deal. On a 1 to 10 scale of stupidity this would be off the charts for Oiler management to even consider it!
Slow your roll pts2pndr, slow your roll. 🙂
I’m confused by all this, this a HH impersonation?
Obviously Boston would take Yamo for Jake in heart beat. Yams is a better player, cheaper player, younger. Why is this even a thing?
Would Vancouver trade us OEL if we offered them Nurse? No shit Sherlock.
The Bruins would make that trade in less than a second.
That is an egregious trade from the Oilers point of view as they would acquire:
1) a worse player
2) an older player
3) a bad contract or a UFA player (while giving up a low QO RFA player)
what is so comforting is watching our pipeline of lads produce and tow the line given the opportunity…why are we always looking somewhere else?…keep building and trust your drafting…seems to be working for us for a change…let the teams that are scrambling (like we did for years) take those chances…lets be the next tampa please..
It’s the money, Randle. Lots of teams will trade for DeBrusk, but it’s a matter of affording the contract. And if a team is willing to take on the contract, the return will be low.
I think its even more than just affording the contract this year, I think its the knowledge that, without a new contract negotiated, the player will almost certainly become a UFA – I don’t think any team would acquire him with the intent of qualifying.
I don’t think that’s the barrier only because the player wants out and the team agrees he needs to go. Boston is going to ask a team to take his salary so they can acquire a defenseman (I hope).
So, it’s money for 3/4’s of a season. Arizona would do that, Detroit, others. Nashville?
Nick Kypreos tweeting that among the teams showing interest in DeBrusk are
Calgary
Edmonton
St Louis
Carolina.
I don’t think any of them are in the position you’re describing.
Calgary probably offering Monahan, that’s no help. St. Louis: Saad? Don’t know. Carolina I can’t see a trade there, unless it’s Jake Gardner’s money.
I wonder if the Bruins would move him to Arizona along with a pick in return for Phil Kessel.
The Bruins need depth scoring.
I don’t think Washington can absorb DeBrusks contract 😉
You don’t think the Bruins will give him permission to speak to other teams to negotiate a new contract?
They certainly could but I don’t see an new contract being agreed to as part of this trade – just don’t.
Debrusk is reminding me of something else I was thinking about recently.
There’s a growing number of players in the Perlini class around the league (washing up at 25)
Adam Gaudette was recently on waivers.
Gaudette posted 59gp: 12-21-33 in his draft plus 5 season and then gets fired through the waiver wire a few years later at age 25.
Perlini goes 74gp: 17-13-30 in his draft plus 4 season then by age 25 is washed up.
It’s weird.
The only theory I have is that players get to play top six minutes at a young age for some reason (draft pedigree or whatever), then teams lose patience with their poor 2-way play and they eventually lose that opportunity, don’t fit in the bottom six, and fall out of the league by 25.
Debrusk is a high-end version of this, he had very productive seasons in his draft +3,4, and 5 seasons, but is now at 25 playing on Boston’s fourth line.
Should we call it the 25 rule?
I think it relates to the washout being one dimensional and not evolving his game. They are put into a prime position, but over time get passed by the new shiny multi-tool prospect like a cactus on the shoulder of an Arizona highway. Coaches dig defensive effort and if you aren’t covering his ass, and are scoring sub-20 goals, you are viewed as replaceable and viola, your ass is grass….
Offense peaks earlier than we think. It is not uncommon for players to have their best offensive season before the age of 25. If you are a great player the decline is usually slow, but if you are merely good, the line between success or failure is pretty slim.
Following up on this, Jordan Eberle’s best season was draft + 4. The difference is that when you are near a pt a game you can still play even when you are not as good.
And with that Eberle was run out of town.
Hall’s second best year was draft + 4 as well.
It’s a pretty normal pattern for first round picks.
Guys who aren’t first round picks have a different pattern, but that isn’t because offense doesn’t peak early, but rather because guys who aren’t first round picks aren’t generally good enough to play in the NHL. Which means, the ones that do make the NHL are already the exceptions, they peak later because they improved later, but that is the exception case. If you included all those guys that don’t make it you would still see that offense peaks earlier than we think.
Draft + 4 seems like a good rule of thumb to me.
Debrusk’s best years were draft + 4 and draft + 5.
He’s now in draft + 8. That’s old for a scoring winger, especially one who makes the NHL early.
So for a guy like Debrusk you have to recognize that you are more than likely trading for someone on the decline athletically. He has a very normal aging curve, and he is decline from what wasn’t that high a peak.
Yeah, I always think of age 25 as being the age offense declines, but Evolving Wild’s War graph actually shows a drop starting at age 24. Granted this is WAR, not pure offensive output. 24 works with Tulsky‘s data as well.
Perhaps NHL managers realize that they’ve already squeezed the best offensive years out a 1-dimensional player, the other aspects of their game are unlikely to improve, so they discard them.
Then if these players are lucky, they get to play in the top six on a rebuilding team where their defensive gaffs are forgiven.
If a team were to qualify DeBrusk next season, could the qualifying offer be strectched accross multiple years to bring the AVV down ( $5m / $1m / $1m ) or does the qualifying AVV have to be $5m ish.
Qualifying offers are one-year only, so there is no opportunity to average it.
The contract, on the other hand, takes the average over each year, but if there’s a contract in place, the QO is moot
Debrusk could choose to sign a contract at a lower AAV however. Say he really wants to stay in Edmonton, maybe he signs a 3 year deal at 2.5M or something to that effect. Typically though, the agent would encourage them to stick on their qualifying offer, then if it doesn’t get offered, they become a free agent. Maybe they could get more being able to sign with any team. (A team with more cap space might take a bigger risk)
100% he could. The issue is, the QO has to be offered to keep his rights. That’s a gamble because, if he signs it, then you have him taking up $4.41M of your cap. With JP needing a new deal, we don’t have that.
Will he sign a 3 year, $2.5M deal? Maybe. I doubt it, especially since he stands to either make 40% of that entire deal in 1 year by signing a QO or become a UFA if he doesn’t get one.
Thank you both.
I don’t want debrusk or price. Not at the price they are asking for. No pun intended. Halloway with his ELC is a piece I want to keep. price for Halloway and 50% retain would get you Turris in my books. price is DAMAGED $hit.
And this stigmatization is exactly why people don’t come out and talk about things. Price did something very brave.
On the flip side, people on here the other day were actually advocating getting professional POS Evander Kane.
The mind boggles, it truly does when you can’t separate the person and the player.
Would you feel differently about Kane if he entered PAP also?
Both are among the few minority players in the league, both have personal issues it seems, not because they are minorities necessarily of course.
I would start to feel differently toward him. But his track record is one of little remorse. Kane has done some very unethical things. And in some cases, illegal.
A little apples to oranges except where people see them as exactly the same. I do not believe anyone has ever questioned Price’s character.
Price’s contract is a huge risk, even at 50% retained.. The most I would offer is Koskinen and Lavoie..
Not sure what you are talking about. I only know him as leg/knee issues and a big price tag. For Halloway no way. 50% retain for a player that has physical injuries is still too much. No other noise.
Price’s injuries aren’t this year’s biggest story about him.
I suspect you are being disingenuous.
Less noise was made about the Keith trade and resigning Smith. And what happened to Smith? What many said would. He’s 5yrs older than Price and not as good.
Price at $5M is a better bet than Keith + Smith. People here are correct, it would have to be Koski’s salary that would have to go back. I feel he could be had for less than Holloway, considering what the reigning Vezina winner was traded for.
So you have a 2x standard and you don’t recognize it within yourself. Keith is a winner and an SC winner. Fitness fanatic. If you have played any sports and had knee or ankle injuries you would know you are never the same again and especially as you age. Vezina is a team award. I’ll take Keith.
Oh dear. I see you are not only disingenuous (refusing to acknowledge Price’s mental health struggles, I believe you called him “DAMAGED” $hit”, you do not argue in good faith.
What you said was a LONG way from saying he had injury troubles.
Oh, and talking of double standards (my favourite standards, they’re twice as good as normal ones), Duncan Keith has had knee surgery.
A wise hockey poster once said, “ If you have played any sports and had knee or ankle injuries you would know you are never the same again and especially as you age.”
This thread of replies, however, is not nicely done.
HH asked the initial question! Take that for what it is worth.
So it seems the consensus on Louie’s boy is he’s had a good scoring season years ago, he’s not particularly fast, he’s not that big, he doesn’t have an aggressive style, and is defensively suspect.
Does he have a plus shot at least? Did he learn how to cycle effectively watching Bergeron? Probably not or The Bruins would like him.
Those attributes say talented player without a lot higher NHL ceiling than now.
I don’t see how he adds much to what the Oilers could benefit from.
Price just came off surgery, is he even the same as he was? Pretty risky bet when goaltending isn’t the biggest issue.
The Kraks could take that cap and need a goaler.
Given Price has a NMC I doubt he waives for the SEAmen. At this stage of his career, I bet he would prefer a contender. Unless the NMC wasn’t reactivated after the expansion draft.
Maybe but contenders usually don’t have the cap room.
Also given his year getting out of the swirling fishbowl and close to home might be nice.
Hall and Kassian don’t get along. So even if I might like a DeBrusk for Kassian deal, to get rid of Kassian’s contract and free up money to Puljujarvi and Yamamoto next summer, it will never happen.
The Kassianophiles can relax.
Sad trombones that Hall has a NMC/NTC situation going on. If Hall and Kassian don’t like each other than a straight swap of those players would be for the best for both sides….
godon’t10
And they had lots of time to learn whether they liked each other or not playing junior together in Windsor.
They are actually the same in a lot of ways. They both play with a lot of passion/intensity. They both cheat a little for offense/can be accused of selfish play. They both can be asses from time to time.
I’m not surprised they don’t like each other.
Why do kassisn and hall not like each other?
because Hall once spelled Kassian’s name wrong. 🙂
Likely from the time Hall accidentally clipped Kassian in the yap with his stick off a faceoff. Kass went after Hall pronto and rag dolled him, Taylor turtled.
That’s all I can think of.
Not sure about their history playing together in Windsor or Edmonton, but in January 2017, while with the Devils, Hall elbowed or butt ended Kassian in the face right after a faceoff, knocking him down and drawing blood. The refs originally missed it, but Kassian skated down and tried to engage Hall in a fight. Hall shoved Kassian a bit, covered up once Kassian started to throw a punch. The linesman helped the refs out, giving Hall 4 minutes for a high stick and Kassian got 2 for roughing. If that is all it is, not much of a feud. Lots of players have had worse encounters then ended up as teammates.
Why does Brandon Manning keep coming up today?
This team struggles with giving up too many shots and scoring chances, and is generally poor defensively at 5v5. We shouldn’t even be discussing acquiring a player who would only exacerbate the problems.
Exactly
Yamo Niems Turris and Koski for JT Miller Halak and contracts. Get Benning while he’s sweating!
and a 2nd
I can’t do that Randy, but I can do a 3rd.
🙂 Let me check with my capologist. I’ll get back to you.
Hyman-McDavid-JP
Debrusk-Drai-Kassian
Foegle-RNH-Yamo
Benson-McLeod-Sceviour
Drai needs a shooter. We need a Mangiapane
Draisaitl is the shooter. Question: who is going to help Draisaitl defend with DeBrusk and Kassian on his wings?
We will get the war pig Phil Kessel at the deadline and he will lead us to glory.
Ralph Wiggum voice “I like hotdogs”
If DeBrusk were coming here salary retained as a rental, I suspect it might be Kailer going the other way.
I doubt that. Yamo is not moved for a rental.
Not advocating the deal. But try looking at it from a Bruins point of view.
Kailer is under-achieving and small, DeBrusk is under-achieving and plays small. From a Bruins point of view both players could use a change of scenery.
Bruins could retain on DeBrusk without raising their cap number.
DeBrusk doesn’t have to be a rental
He does if you want to keep JP!
And it would still be a stupid transaction!
I can’t imagine that Holland would trade Yamamoto for a rental winger (that isn’t even as “good” as Yamamoto who helps the team in various ways).
Debrusk’s contract pretty much forces us to treat any deal for him as a rental. That contract is just too toxic given his production over the last couple of seasons, and you have to be prepared for the option of not qualifying him after this season.
RW does seem to be an area that we could use an upgrade, and with Hyman and Foegel both capable of playing both wings, we could fill that hole by adding a winger on either side. The higher up the depth chart you can fill the better. But is it more important than LD, 3C or in net? Would Debrusk be a better option for us compared to other rentals who may be available at the deadline?
The only way I would trade for Debrusk if is Kassian is going the other way. I think he has more upside and the last 2.5 years of Kassian’s deal has a lot of risk. I doubt Boston values Kassian enough to do that deal without a major sweetener, and I don’t know that a major sweetener makes sense for Edmonton given DeBrusk’s QO, which makes him likely to bring a rental with some exclusive negotiating rights to bring his AAV down.
Hard to see a deal that would work for both sides. Maybe Edmonton adds a mid round pick or has given up on Lavoie or Niemelainen shows well and Boston wants him.
Two wrongs don’t make a right. 🙂
I do not give up much of anything for a rental. Boston knows they are not resigning him as well. This guy is worth a second at best but buyer needs a salary dump. How about 50%retained and boston takes perlini and turris…..
EVEN STRENGTH POINTS BY FWDS
Draisaitl 23
McDavid 18
JP 13
Hyman 9
Kassian 8
Nuge 7
Foegele 7
DeBrusk 6
Yamamto 4
How inconvenient.
A buddy suggested a Barrie for Debrusk trade. Doubt Holland would do that right after signing the guy. You’d need to have a companion trade for a vet RHD that can play defense (Lars would be ideal). Not sure if or why the Bruins do that though.
We’re buds ya? 🙂
I suspect If DeBrusk were coming here salary retained as a rental, it might be Kailer going the other way.
haha I didn’t see you wrote that too
Given what LT said on the radio about what the Bruins would want out of a deal like this I suspect you’re right.
The bruins are getting nothing out of this really. What is Debrusk worth at the deadline as a rental. Not a first. So a second rounder? And no one has cap that is a true contender so Boston has to take back contracts.
The Bruins are drowning. Throw them an anchor.
Bruce Cassidy looks visibly nervous/agitated behind the bench.
So, if Barrie was traded, our D for tomorrow night would be:
Broberg/Bouchard
Lagesson/Russell
Niemelainen/Berglund or Samorukov
The not ready to play list is getting long
Keith 1210 NHL games
Smith 645
Ceci 569
Nurse 422
Shore 334
Koekoek 178
Total 3358
Klefbolm 378
Archibald 235
Stalock 151
Holloway 0
Total 764
Total/Total 4122
Basically replaced with rookies and Colton
Todays winning lotto numbers
41, 22 and 15 and 5
Just a reminder Carey Price’s is 34 years old.
Not saying trade for him, but aging curves for the elite can be different. Roy won the Conn Smythe at 36 and finished 4th in the Vezina at 38 (then retired). Hasek won the cup at 37 and finished 5th in Vezina votes at 42. Price may have several good years in him still though he has had more injury issues in his career than those two which may eventually affect his on ice performance. His contract goes till he is 39.
You’d be buying him for a 3 or 4 year cup run.
Just a reminder, Carey Price will probably be the starter for Team Canada.
Don’t see a high cap hit reclamation project being of much interest to this team
Price at 50% is probably only way they move him given length of contract and I wouldn’t give up on Holloway since we need players on ELC given our cap situation
I’d welcome Carey Price with open arms. But unfortunately, not at the price/terms Montreal would be willing to accept.
I’d welcome Jake DeBrusk as a rental, but unfortunately, not at the price/terms Boston would be willing to accept.
The acquisition cost and cap hit changes the whole value equation when making a trade.
It was apparent from training camp that Foegele would be stiff competition for Yamamoto in terms of rounding out the top six.
Foegele has clearly won that battle.
Having said that, in order to compete in the playoffs, you need a fully formed and fully functioning 3rd line.
The reasons you put JP on the 3rd line are the same reasons you keep Foegele there.
Big time.
Foegle has 7 points playing mostly with Derek Ryan.
Kailer has 4 points playing with the league MVP.
Ryan McLeod is in danger of catching Kailer even with only half the games played.
If I was told that the Oilers packaged one of our fwds in trade, and was then told it was either McLeod or Yamamoto, I’m not sure who I’d be hoping it was.
How has Foegele won a top 6 battle over Yamamoto?’
I wonder how many minutes Foegele has had playing against the oppositions top players and top defenders?
We have seen countless examples of players being effective in a 3rd line role without P/60 rates translating when moved up with more minutes and tougher comp.
For starters, P/60 taking passes from Draisaitl vs P/60 taking passes from McLeod.
I like Yamamoto, but small players who don’t produce offense at a high level are replaceable.
I wouldn’t give up on him yet. But the clock is ticking.
I think if the Oilers had two legit RW’s ( JP aside) Kailer wouldn’t have a role on the team. He wouldn’t produce in a 3rd line role.
Having said that, he does some things well and is value at $1.175m
Team Management has told us clearly who they think is the better player. They gave up Bear to get Foegele; They gave Yamo basically no raise coming out of his ELC.
On the first line of your response, there are countless examples of players that aren’t able to replicate their bottom 6 scoring rates when moved to the top 6 – I would think that all of them are playing with better players in the top 6 than the bottom 6.
It is far from certain that Foegele would produce at the same scoring rates in the top 6, even when playing with better linemates (give history has shown us exactly that) – playing more minutes in itself is one thing and, of course, playing against top comp and top defenders, etc. is another.
Your other points have validity and they could be discussed but they don’t speak to the point I was responding to, which was that Foegele has already beat Yamamoto out for a top 6 job.
I’m totally on board with trading for Debrusk – if the deal involves Kassisn. The league is littered with high picks who don’t have success with the team that drafted them, then move to another team and rediscover their game. And we know there are issues with the coach. I’m not willing to give up major assets though, because his defensive deficiencies could be an issue. He might end up being Andreas Athanasiou, rather than Sam Bennett.
AA is a very good comparison for DeBrusk. Been there, done that. Moving along…
LT, why do you hate Kassian.
2.09
OR, has godot10 hacked the system?
I am not advocating it. At all. Too many red flags on effort level.
But Jake’s numbers look superior to some of the guys taking passes from Leon
Draisaitl.
I would be curious to see how DeBrusk would mesh offensively with the NHL MVP.
It’s ok. You can say his name.
#RhymesWithNailer
A little too high a price to satisfy a curiosity me thinks,😉
Glad to see Marchand given a 3 game suspension for the slew-foot, but where was the call on the ice?
NHL officials are starting to kill the game.
Just such a dirty player. Yet, such a talented player.
The NHL is so ……, Canucks got screwed in that game as it should have been 5 and a game for the B’s POS.
If they make the suspension 4 games then Marchand does play against the Canucks on December 8th.
He did it many years ago with the Sedins and the referees turned a blind eye!
Rishaug promulgating the trade request has to imply some potential interest from the Oilers?
I hope not!
I know and agree, but why does a TSN Edmonton report break the story about a Bruin?
Because Oiler fans are very susceptible to click bait.
You bet. Yet, we have seen many trades over the last 10 years we thought were click bait.
Initially, Snopes debunked the trade for Brandon Manning.
The story/speculation that DeBrusk was looking for a trade was out there and then Rishaug, knowing the connection of the kid to Edmonton, did a great job and reached out to his agent to confirm.
I don’t think those facts lead to likelihood of him being traded to the Oilers.
I have zero doubt that Holland has, or will, inquire in to price, etc. but Holland is known for doing his diligence on all players.
DeBrusk has long been rumored to be a potential trade target for the Oilers.
Was there even a JP for DeBrusk rumor at some point?
The knock on DeBrusk is that he plays d and backchecks like Kassian.
The other knock is on him is qualifying offer which is an impossible hurdle making him a rental.
A Kassian for DeBrusk deal would be have the advantage out getting out from the next two years of Kassian’s contract, but I’m not sure much else.
You just gave Foegele the “LT try Strome on McDavid’s wing before we make the trade” curse. 🙂
I’d sure like to see Foggy given a chance in the top six.
Based on ‘seen him’ I don’t see Foegs as a fit for top six. He’s got a motor and a defensive conscience but his hands are shy. Then again maybe he lands somewhere and it all clicks.
I’d like for that to be the case too, but the scouting report on Foggy from CAR blogs before the trade is that he generates chances in tight but often can’t cash.
Doubt that changes at this point, although I’d be happy to be proven wrong.
Didn’t he spend a fair bit of time this summer training/playing with McDavid? Wouldn’t it be prudent to give the kid a shot before trading for someone and slotting them in on his wing?
I’m all for it, but I have tempered expectations. Like the player plenty, but his hands aren’t the best.
That said, I have been wanting to see Foegele and Hyman beside Connor since the off-season.
I would agree with that. He isn’t a high-end shooter, that’s for sure. He is at a respectable 10.4% on his career.
The other issue is that you probably have to move Hyman over to RW which really thins out the LW depth chart.
Don’t let the facts cloud your judgement.
Warren Foegele 1.79
Kailer Yamamoto 0.88
Ahem!….
Warren Foegele 1.79
Kailer Yamamoto 0.88
Goals/60
Yamamoto 0.66
Foegele 0.26
He doesn’t necessarily have to with the Oiler top six as long as he goes to the net and is good at puck retrieval! The centre’s are adept at putting the biscuit in the net!
Foegle doesn’t need to be an elite scorer to contribute in the top six. He keeps he play alive in the ozone and forechecks like a demon. He’s a lot like Hyman.
elite scorer?
Sure, Foegele could likely stop-gap in the top 6, just like Kassian and Archie in the past but does anyone actually think he could be a long term solution in the top 6?
I certainly don’t.
I like the player (and am one of the few that are fine with the trade) but he is what he is – a 3rd line player and an effective one that helps the team in that role.
please ignore my comment, I mis-read your post.
I guess drafting all of those defencemen is finally starting to pay off for the Oilers.
Seriously though, Ceci now? Of all the remaining guys? Pittsburgh is going to be one hell of a test.
Ceci out too? yikes
What?