2021-22 Game 21: Penguins at Oilers

This month begins with some visible worry on the brow. Chaos, panic, and stark imagery seem certain in the days to come. I don’t think we’ll reach ‘Donner Party’ or ‘Tecumseh Valley’ but am fairly certain you will read ‘same as it ever was’ and ‘we hoped for the best but it turned out the same’ in the next 31 days.

Today, I’m tasked with predicting the impossible: Edmonton’s record in the coming month. Perhaps the hockey Gods can gift me the number of games to be played by Edmonton’s rookie defensemen? Perhaps the number of games where three rookie defensemen play in the same game?

No? Okay, here we go. Did you know the Coen brothers had a difficult finishing the script for the all-time classic Miller’s Crossing? Did you also know that, in order to clear their minds, they put that script behind and wrote Barton Fink? Which is about writer’s block? We may have to spend time on the draft and prospects in December to keep our heads.

THE ATHLETIC!

• New DNB: Brendan Perlini subscriber Q&A
• New DNB: Oilers turn to Markus Niemelainen
• Lowetide: The Oilers won often in November, but is their roster built to keep winning this way?
• Lowetide: The Oilers’ prospect pipeline has produced 2 call-ups on defence this season. Who’s next?
• DNB: What I think and what I know about the Oilers through their first 20 games
• Lowetide: How promising is the Oilers’ Russian prospect pool?
• DNB: Could Leon Draisaitl score 50 goals in 50 games?
• Lowetide: How the Oilers most pressing needs have changed since the offseason
• DNB: Tales from the days Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan McLeod, Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson were minor league roommates
• DNB: For Emily Cave, Colby’s widow, a trip back to Boston is about memories, love and legacy
• Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl even better than we think? A look at his stunning historic comparables
• DNB: Philip Broberg’s first NHL game was as special as he’d hoped
• Lowetide: Philip Broberg is ready for his NHL audition
• Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto is still on the Oilers’ No. 2 line
• Lowetide: Three auditioning Oilers who are finding their groove and hope to find their place
• Lowetide: Should the Oilers move Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to the 3rd line?

WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER

• At home to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: LAK, MIN, BOS, CAR, TOR, CBJ (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: LAK, SJS, CAL, STL, NJD (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 8-7-0, 16 points in 15 games
• Actual December results: 0-0-0, 0 points in 0 games
• Oilers in 2021-22: 15-5-0, 30 points in 20 games

If the Oilers cover my bet, they’ll finish December at 23-12-0, 46 points in 35 games. That trajectory would land Edmonton at 108 points (54-28-0). I’m clearly hedging here, but the current defensive group is a big worry. The first eight games should be considered a success if Edmonton gets eight points based on the current defense.

THE CURRENT DEFENSE

I chose some categories that have value to me and not to you. My hope is the comments section spends the next 10 hours discussing the value of Corsi Rel in a mature way. Haha, just kidding, I know you hate it, but for me it’s the quickest way to find out what’s shakin’ at the malt shop. In the Oilers case, Nurse-Bouchard is an island, Broberg has enjoyed a few strong games.

Puck IQ will be up and running soon, they need a little more time for the tubes to warm up. In the meantime my sincere wish is that you get rel rel gone with these numbers.

To use a Miller’s Crossing reference, Edmonton’s defense is without the hi-hat this evening. Daniel Nugent-Bowman’s excellent piece at The Athletic has Oilers general manager Ken Holland looking at this series of injuries as a ‘team building opportunity‘ and an investment in the future.

I remember a time when an NHL team ran a bunch of kids on defense and can tell you it’s a wild ride. Not the thrill you get at the summer fair, but rather the real danger one faced when driving through the Fraser Canyon in the 1960’s. It’s a long way down.

On November 14, 1968, the Toronto Maple Leafs played the Montreal Canadiens at the Forum. TML won the game 5-3, Bruce Gamble stopping 39 of 42 shots. In that game, rookies Mike Pelyk (game No. 35), Jim McKenny (game No. 14) and Jim Dorey (game No. 13) all played a role. It was also Pat Quinn’s rookie year and he played a significant amount.

I think we can agree that among the young blue playing tonight, the best bets for long NHL careers are Bouchard and Broberg. Lagesson and Markus Niemelainen (recalled yesterday) will have to earn their careers through fits, starts and staying power based on what we know today.

Niemelainen

He is a big, strong defenseman who can punish opponents, we knew it on draft day. What we didn’t know, and was obscured by playing for a middling team in the Liiga, is Niemelainen can skate and move the puck. I’m happy to see him make the NHL, Jesse Puljujarvi and Tyler Benson finally have some company from that 2016 draft.

When Niemelainen steps on the ice, the 2016 draft will become the sixth draft from the 2010’s to send three men to the show. The 2011 draft, with 1,539 games, is the top single draft of the decade, having passed the 2010 draft along the way. The champion will probably be 2015 someday.

At this time of year people tend to look at the standings and forget that games played is part of the equation. For some reason, people forget that ‘winning percentage’ is the best way to observe this, and forget to swear at Bettman for his blasted Bettman point. I trust you will shake your fist in the direction of Manhattan today for the greater good.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning on the Lowdown, TSN1260 beginning at 10. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will tee up the game and I’ll poke and prod his memory banks for recalls on nights when as many as four young blue faced an NHL team on the same night. Joe Osborne from Odds Shark will discuss the NBA, the Oilers and MLB’s free agency. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk in 90!