William Lagesson is No. 15 on my latest list of the Top 20 Oilers prospects, and is behind Philip Broberg, Dmitri Samorukov and Markus Niemelainen on the LHD depth chart among young blue. Other futures are valued more, and Lagesson’s current ability has been deemed less than Kris Russell and Slater Koekkoek. Is this an accurate view of the situation? Does Lagesson have enough value to be plucked off waivers? We’ll find out at noon today.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Can Oilers identify cost efficient solutions at problem positions?
- Lowetide: Why can’t the Oilers win a trade in the Connor McDavid era?
- DNB: ‘We’re finding ways to lose’
- Lowetide: Midseason review of Oilers reasonable predictions for 2021-22
- DNB: The Oilers aren’t getting a dominant Leon Draisaitl right now
- Lowetide: What to expect from Dylan Holloway in Bakersfield and Edmonton this season
- DNB: Connor McDavid supports Oilers’ pursuit of Evander Kane.
- DNB: Ken Holland speaks
- Lowetide: Forget the Connor McDavid bump, Jesse Puljujarvi is the real deal after all
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Evander Kane and what would it look like?
- Lowetide: What’s the gap for Oilers between now and the 2016-17 playoff team?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Will this be another lost season?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers forward lineup isn’t deep or good enough
- DNB: Time for the Oilers to move on from Mikko Koskinen
- Lowetide: If Oilers plan a coaching change, why stop there?
- New DNB: Exploring how the Oilers can get back on track
- Lowetide: Long December has Oilers fans looking for reasons to believe
- Lowetide: A complete review of the Bakersfield Condors’ 2021-22 season to date
- DNB: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto, the goal has always been to belong with the best
- Lowetide: 7 AHL trade targets that could immediately improve Oilers’ NHL forward depth
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2021
DECISIONS ON YOUNG PLAYERS
I freely admit to overvaluing prospects. If you’ve read this blog since it began, you can probably list a half dozen or more favorites of mine, from Marc Pouliot to Slava Trukhno to Teemu Hartikainen to Filip Berglund and on it goes.
I had no strong opinion on William Lagesson and buddy didn’t make it easy. He kept hitting leagues that were under the radar for stats nerds like me. He skipped around a lot, from Swedish Jrs to USHL to Hockey East and eventually the AHL.
In Bakersfield, I tracked his even-strength goal differentials and found he was a rock steady defender, even compared to more promising prospects. Here are even-strength on ice GF-GA tracked by Eric Rodgers:
He isn’t going to score many points, but does have a resume that suggests goal suppression at a good level of hockey. How has his NHL career gone? He has four assists in 37 games, he’s a ghost on offense (0.56 points-per-60).
His defensive numbers over parts of three seasons show a 46 percent Corsi (all numbers five-on-five), 44 percent shots, 42 percent goals, 44 percent expected goals.
This year, it’s 55 percent Corsi, 57 percent shots, 42 percent goals and 55 percent expected goals.
I would have waived Slater Koekkoek, mostly because the Oilers don’t have any real shutdown types beyond Kris Russell. I expect this means the Oilers like Markus Niemelainen’s present and future more than Willie Legs.
GOALIE GOALIE
Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts out today has the Oilers switching gears and pursuing a goaltender. There are two routes to go, one of which I detail (and offer two solutions) in my article for The Athletic. It’ll be a veteran and could be someone Holland has employed previously.
My list would start with Alexander Georgiev of the New York Rangers, the cost will be dear and I don’t mean maybe.
CONDORS
Bakersfield is scheduled to play tonight, 7:30 Edmonton start as the team hosts Tucson. There are compelling stories on the Condors and I expect one of those young blue might be part of the trade package for a goaltender. It won’t be Broberg.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning, it all starts with the ‘worst Oilers moves over the last 30 years’ draft at 9, TSN1260. I have first choice and you’ll hate it! At 10, we’ll begin the Lowdown with sober words, and Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will be “Captain Serious” as we discuss Friedman’s news and the latest around the Oilers. Joe Osborne from Odds Shark will talk NFL and how to identify game results like Flames-Panthers before the game. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
If the Oilers can pull their crap together the rest of the Pacific has done them a huge favour. They haven’t really fallen back of the pack at all in the last 2-3 weeks despite continuing to suck.
Standings points from their last 5 games for Pacific division teams:
SJS 7
LAK 6
VAN 4
VEG 3
EDM/CGY/ANA/SEA 2
What a pile of junk lately. And the teams who’ve been decent/good started out behind the Oilers so haven’t pulled far ahead. Oilers gotta start to win though, of course.
The Oilers are 13GF-12GA at 5v5 in those games by the way, it’s special teams that have crapped the bed.
But but but what about the Avalanche pulling away and some weird math making it impossible for the Oilers to make the playoffs? But but but what about all of the insane, totally atypical runs that were supposed to sink every single chance the Oilers had? But but but the Flames were the best defensive team of all time?
Lots of regression settling into the Pacific, its not a tough division and the Oilers have a whole lot of 4 point games against said teams.
Its a marathon not a sprint. Lots of hockey left to be played.
Kesslering and Schaller with a solid defensive zone board battle win, Schaller pops the puck out, Griffith to Cracknell who buries the hatty in to the open net.
5 assists for Griffth (breaking the previous record of 4 – Brad Hunt).
Broberg with a delay of game penalty and Tuscon gets one back – no chance for Rodrigues as it was a very very nice cross-ice pass.
On that note, some kudos for Rodrigue who, to this point, has stopped 25 of 28 but been very solid overall and was a rock when the Condors were finding their rusty legs and getting owned early. He allowed the big comeback.
5 minutes to go, 5-3 Condors.
My goodness, what a shift by the veteran line – maybe 90 seconds of pure offensive zone time – even got a shift change for the D as Berglund came on and started a strong rush.
Griffith ends up ragging the puck in open space, back to Cracknell with all sorts of room to skate to the top of the circles and bomb one home short side.
5-2.
That’s 4 apples for Griffith.
Berglund with a solid transition pass, cross-ice blue to blue, on Cracknell’s tape, in stride, Cracknell with a power move around the d-man and finishes.
4 straight for a 4-2 lead.
Kurt Leavins tweeting that Holloway is cleared and on his way to Bakersfield.
I haven’t seen this anywhere else but, on Monday, Tip did confirm he had seen the doctor and thought he was good to go vis-a-vis the wrist but still needed to clear Covid-protocol.
I look forward to watching his development. On the ice.
Broberg starts the outlet, Cracknell, to Griffith as they enter the zone and a great cross-ice pass to Kemp who bombs a one-timer home for a 3-2 lead.
Kemp and Kesselring have taken massive steps this season.
That was a pretty sweet goal. Helluva pass.
Niemalainen just stepped up and destroyed and Tucson attacker trying to gain zone entry.
Another PP marker to tie the game at two.
Again, Broberg to Griffith who goes down low to Malone. Malone tries to go cross-crease but it banks in.
That’s 2 PP apples for each of Broberg and Griffith.
Broberg takes a pass from Grifith, gives it back to him, Griffith with a shot/pass and Hamblin buries the PP goal on the redirect.
Lavoie has been the best forward by far in the 1st period. Really moving his feet and skating well. Two rushes down the left side of the offensive zone and cutting in towards the net – the 2nd with a minute left dangerous.
Condors trail 1-0 heading in to the break. Tucson the better possession team and scored off a long cycle. Overall Rodrigue was very good in the period and the goal against wasn’t on him. 10 saves on 11 shots.
That’s the key, he’s in motion. On one play he had a backhand shot, skated around the net with authority and the puck found him again in the high slot. Increasing speed means getting to more pucks. Encouraging.
Yes, absolutely – he’s skating well tonight, constant motion.
I mentioned his 3-shot attempt first shift earlier – a great start to the game.
Christmas, predictably 🙂
Great to hear Lavoie is still alive, and tons of time for recovery if he can keep it up. Hopefully we won’t remember his first 20 games this time next year.
Sounds like a conditioning issue earlier in the year and now he’s up to speed. It’s gotta be tough for some players to take the next step with their training to get to an NHL level.
Ryan Holt mentioned that he thinks all of the guys out with Covid could/should be back for the weekend which is good timing as management who are down for their meetings will attend.
Kesselring with a nice outlet pass to Lavoie who enters the zone, drives wide and puts his 1st of 3 shot attempts on his shift wide (retrieved the puck and put a slot backhand on net and then another medium range shot that was blocked).
Per Puckpedia, Russell offcially actvated (and his LTIR reserves go away).
Oilers now have $463K in cap space with a 21 player active roster.
Is that number annualized or pro rated, Coop?
Its annual but there is no pro-rated for the Oilers this year due to them being in LTIR.
They couldn’t even add a league min player to the roster right now.
So they don’t actually have $463k (annual) in cap space, then. They have zero. Which was my understanding before your Puckpedia post. What I’m saying is I’m not exactly sure what Puckpedia is on about. But then I never use that site which might be part of the lack of understanding.
From Hart at PuckPedia: “As of right now, they can bring in $463K more than they bring out. But that will change based on how many injured/covid guys they have.”
So he’s talking about LTIR reserve then and not cap space?
Yes. If someone got hurt, the Oilers could recall a player making as much as the player who was PLUS $463,000.
No, I don’t think that’s true.
If someone got hurt, the Oilers could not replace that player on roster without putting someone on LTIR.
Yes, you have that correct. I think Smith is in that situation right now. He’s not providing any LTIR relief. And Skinner is on emerg loan.
(As an aside: I’ve always assumed those emergencies still counted against the cap in the regular way but admit that’s an assumption on my part. Don’t think I’ve read it anywhere.)
No, they recently changed the emergency recall rules and, a team can bring up a player on emergency recall for no cap hit if, of course, they didn’t have the cap room and the player is $1MM cap hit or under.
As an aside, i’m not sure Skinner is on an emergency recall anymore – he was until Smith was activated and then was returned and, subsequently recalled.
That’s right, I had forgotten about that. Thank you.
Thank you. I wish these guys would be more precise when it comes to complex issues like this, although the League’s deliberate Lack of clarity on the issue probably plays a role too.
So as it stands at the moment the “salary relief pool” to use the proper term, can be tapped for $463k.
Man, that’s like working out your gas money for the family vacation in the Okanagan down to the dollar and then hitting nothing but road construction delays all the way there. She’s gonna be tight. Might have to wash a few dishes to get home.
So, this guy I mentioned as a potential goaltender target just did it again.
Karel Vejmelka stops 35 of 36 shots (.972) as Arizona beats New Jersey 4-1.
https://www.nhl.com/player/karel-vejmelka-8478872
He’s 25 and his previous 3 seasons featured .910-.915SV% in the Czech league.
This is the league where Oiler 7th rounder (2015) Miroslav Svoboda has consistently posted .920SV% seasons (he who topped out with 14 ECHL games).
Vejmelka is having a nice run but IMO it’s extremely unlikely to last.
Massive amounts of context missing in this post.
What was the quality of his Czech league team, particularly the D?
Svoboda didn’t play even 1 game in the AHL or NHL while Vejmelka is now at 22 NHL GP playing with a poor team.
His save percentage is better than all 3 Oiler goaltenders and that IS likely to last.
Through 22 games he has the exact same save percentage as Skinner and a worse GAA than Skinner.
That last sentence is not only factually incorrect based on those 22 games but, given he is two and a half years older than Skinner, Skinner is clearly the more valuable player.
Vejmelka has done very well for himself considering.
But his history is that of a mediocre goalie in a much lesser league, so I highly doubt his ability to keep it up.
I’d almost bet all 3 Oiler goalies will better his SV% through the end of the season.
Things are different when you don’t have the pressure of winning
I would take a chance on him if the price isn’t too steep. He would still be able to get in quite a few games and then sign a show-me contract for next season. Mikko got a 4.5 million contract I’m guessing after 25 games. Which was too much and never worked.
Zero risk.
well, depends what you have to give up no ?
Whoa, going to be a TOUGH game tonight:
Ryan Holt
@CondorsHolty
Alright here goes..
Condors without Desharnais, Safin, Kaldis, Marody, Samorukov, Soderlund, and Gennaro.
Brosseau, Kambeitz return. Watts, McLeod make AHL debuts. Stalock backs up Rodrigue.
———————-
Broberg and Niemalainen are going to play a ton.
They wlll be relying on the veteran forward tonight – Cracknell, Malone, Griffith, Esposito, etc.
Go Hamblin!
A couple things I keep forgetting to note:
1) Tip mentioned that Perlini is not ruled out for tomorrow.
I do want to see how he looks beside McDavid – he’s a big and fast train and when he’s on and driving the net he can open up space. Of course, the shot as well. He didn’t play well when moved up with Drai previously.
On the other hand, I do want to see Benson, well, not on the fourth line, and like him with McLeod.
I’m also not a fan of Foegele in the top 6 mind you.
2) Gaetan Haas and Patrick Russell will both be in the Olmpics!
I wonder if Benson might not better top 6 overall than Perlini
Might take him some games to settle though, Perlini has them under his belt already
I’ve been suggesting that since well before the season started.
Given where we are now, I don’t see it happening and am heartened by Benson’s ability to transform his game to fit and contribute in the bottom six. He was gaining traction pre-Covid.
Its helpful to have some fast/skilled players to play with though (i.e. McLeod vs. Sceviour)
I think he gets overlooked because he doesn’t have a great shot and he doesn’t shoot much. Benson is a great passer but hell everyone is on the top two lines.
Most of the sports reporters are not journalists. They report on a team. After each game the oiler reporters like Matheson determine a storyline based on the game. Great individual performance! Gritty win! Continued failure? Listen to the post-game interviews and compare to what they write. After the game they have have a couple of minutes before player availability to pick their storyline. Or lines. Questions are directly related to the ‘pre-determined storyline’. Each player gets to fill in some words, which are then rushed to ‘press’. Hopefully, for the reporter, one of the interviewees says something interesting. Usually they don’t. The narrative stands. Maybe a good headline to click on. The reporter gets paid, mostly on the hits. Rinse and repeat. Between game interviews are merely longer-range versions of the fill in the blanks storyline template. Drai didn’t play along. Matheson has nothing to write. He gets pissy. It has less to do with his age and more with his need to feed the goat. In this case Matheson/Drai is the story. The goat still gets fed.
This model is utterly valueless and the faster it dies it’s inevitable death – the better.
Listening to the barking seals circle the wagons and speak of “we” was particularly lame.
Amazing what people do to protect their rackets.
Matheson doesn’t get paid based on hits
Re: Matheson.
This a wild story from big Georges on Jim.
Cross-posted:
“This story has been going around and I think it’s worthy of it’s own thread
https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/199-georges-laraque-nhl-career-good-luck/id1194344348?i=1000433245421
The story starts at about 26:40 of the podcast.
TLDR Version:
“Brantt Myhres had a tryout with Calgary in 2005 and was to play in a Oilers-Flames preseason game, which was his first NHL game since getting out of drug rehab. His dad was in attendance. Matheson thought it would be funny to tell Laraque at the morning skate that Myhres was talking shit in an interview. This really pissed Laraque off, and he beat up Myhres bad during the game and broke his orbital bone. Laraque called Myhres afterwards to check up on him and asked why he was trash talking him in the media. Myhres told Georges he never said anything that Matheson was claiming. Laraque later confronted Matheson, and Matheson laughed about it. Matheson made the whole thing up for his own enjoyment and got Myhres badly hurt. Myhres never played another game in the NHL.”
Choice quotes:
“When I called him to apologize, Brent, we know each other, why the hell did you tell the media you were going to go after me. You know what he said to me? Georges I swear I never said anything, I didn’t want to fight you, it was my first game out of rehab and my dad was there. You think I wanted to fight you? I never said anything”
“So the media is on the bus on the way to the plane, and I went up to the guy [Matheson] and he laughed at me and he was kinda joke [sic]. They wanted to see the fight, so they made it up. All this something they made up, to see me fight him they kinda thought it would get a rise out of me and it did.”
“Did that guy lose his job in the media? No, are you kidding me? No he didn’t, you know how good that is for them to create a story like this for them? They don’t care. Oh my god that’s so irresponsible though a guy’s career is over. Yes exactly, just for a joke. The media tries stuff like that, to try and get a rise out of someone, and it worked.”
Jeez.
Who goes and assaults another person without verifying the reason prior to?
When it occurred, that happened all the time, both on and off the ice. You’re using your 2022 perspective to make a satirical joke right?
Yes, there is a certain angle here that big Georges should have done some due dilligence on his part.
However, there is a line that reporter should not cross. Unfaithful information which ended a career is not something that should be respected.
No matter what your career, you should not sewer / provide false information in order to amuse yourself, as there is always a consequence.
I prefer that a post presents a balanced perspective when attacking the character of another person. Georges is an entertainer and likely sees an opportunity to gain professional attention by telling this story.
As someone who knows Brantt, I can confirm this is true
That podcast was from almost three years ago.
That pretty much sums things up doesn’t it. He got the story. Regardless of the cost.
But Matheson is a HOF writer*, he would never conduct himself like that….
*HOF writers are picked by a small panel of other writers. Is this the least deserving demographic to get picked for the HOF?
One of the interesting things to me about the group dynamic on the Drai vs Math (see what I did there : ) conflab yesterday is it paralleled the way the NHL typically penalizes the retaliation instead of the initial aggression.
Matheson’s original open-ended question was not the spark. In fact, another player proved that by answering the same question expansively and without issue.
Draisaitl’s refusal to elaborate followed by his derision/dismissal of Matheson is the first micro aggression followed by Matheson’s over the top ‘pissy’ comment retaliation. Matheson then doubles down, getting a major and the game misconduct, with his attempt to shame Leon on the ever present body language criticism. Sideburns indeed.
By and large, the gang here penalized the retaliation while justifying or outright excusing the initial aggression. Score one for the home team.
Most parents would agree that A) when mitigating conflicts between siblings, justice is best served by ascertaining who started it, & B) it’s a poor parent who makes excuses for bad behaviour. We know these things innately within our immediate social structures and yet when forced to make these value judgements through a different lens where more external biases factor in, we struggle to reach similarly equitable conclusions.
Much as when siblings bicker, it’s entirely possible that both sides share some blame here. But that’s too nuanced a conclusion for today’s polarized world. We need scalps dammit and we need them pronto.
I’m not certain a fairly meh, and clearly overblown exchange, could be more over-analyzed.
It needed to be talked about yesterday/today, in particular with no games, but, really it was fairly tame – no eff-bombs or anything.
Imagine if Leon pulled a Voracek….
The national media are still talking about it.
Its a thing.
Continuing the conversation continues to generate revenue. Nothing sells as well as controversy. Except maybe sex. Or sex with controversy. Or conspiracy about a controversy about sex.
No news on Kane as of yet today. Kind of thought something would drop today.
But Cobra released the new Ltd club line. Very nice
I swear I had read that a decision was likely to come down today but then, Friedman in his 31 Thoughts last night said the league talked to Kane on Friday but there is no timing on the ruling.
Lets get this done – I want this player on the ice for the Oilers at a huge value to cap hit.
Can Kane play goal?
they just said on That’s Hockey ( Dregger) , that Kane’s camp feels a decision will come down in the next few days. Dregger basically said he is going to sign with the Oil ( in not so many words) .
Hindsight is 20/20 but:
If the Oilers don’t trade Bear and Jones for Keith and Foegele,
If they don’t sign Smith but sign Ullmark instead.
Don’t sign Barrie
They would have better goaltending and loads of cap space in order to:
Trade for Ryan Graves (cost second round pick + B prospect)
Sign Eric Haula
That leaves 5 M for whatever premium Haula and Ullmark require and to go out and get another LD.
I might give Caleb Jones another run, but I know Tippett never would, so make the trade the Flames did to get Zadorov. That guy can play on your penalty kill.
You could save more money if you don’t sign Derek Ryan or bury him in the minors. Zach Sanford was also traded for not much.
Add it altogether, all easy to make moves even with foresight, and you get a team with some cap space to spare that fits with the underlying philosophy of the coaching staff, and yet much better. It looks like this.
Hyman–McDavid–Puljujarvi
RNH–Draisatl–Yamamoto
Sanford–Haula–Kassian (vet 3/4 line)
Benson–Mcleod–Marody (young, scoring, 3/4 line)
Shore–Sceviour
Nurse–Bouchard
Graves–Ceci
Zadorov–Bear
Jones
UIlmark
Koskinen
This is a first place team. It will be much harder to build a roster this good next year.
Problem is KH valued intangibles much more than picks, prospects and cap space.
He assessed (no doubt with help) that the problem wasn’t players unable to play at the level being asked, but leadership, grit, etc.
This assessment was right up there with Chia’s assessment after the playoff run led him to blame Eberle, then Eberle’s replacement.
Watch out for a cut-your-nose-off, you-wanted-a-trade, spite trade for another veteran with intangibles. If not, it will be Evander Kane, who’ll act the only way he knows how, but that’s okay, because he’s practically free, right. I mean, absolutely the right move if you didn’t have glaring holes at goal, D and bottom 6.
That is absolutely the problem.
Will remain the problem for so long as Burger Bob reins. Always more Kens and Chias out there.
Just to be clear, by overvaluing intangibles, leadership and grit you mean:
Nuge
Hyman
Barrie
Ceci
Athanasiou
Turris
Ryan
Ennis
Kahun
Koekkoek
Perlini
Haas
Nygard
Have I got that right?
I think you can add Foggy, Smith, Stalock and Keith to that list.
Right, but those guys arguably fit the narrative. I tried to stick with guys largely lacking the traits Holland was stated to value.
Ahh, I get it. Apologies.
Yeah, Again, better options on the table.
Graves > Keith so that’s an upgrade. I still don’t love that right side defense. Bouchard does not appear ready for 1RD — his defensive zone work still has a long way to go. Bear’s play in Carolina has tailed off to the point where he is the clear #7 and getting healthy scratched on a regular basis. The Oilers need a 1RD to keep Bouchard at 3RD. And almost any goalie would be an improvement at this point. Holland gambled on the current duo and the dice have rolled snake eyes.
Before, you are wise; after, you are wise. In between you are otherwise.
One thing I don’t see mentioned often in the goalie posts is the fundamental change in the way the position is handled. Goalies were like quarterbacks. If the backup gets too good, make a choice and get one out of here.
It used to be that the Cam Talbots would put in their time as a #2 and eventually their need to be a true starter would force a trade and even the trading team wouldn’t argue. They’d grab a backup for 950k.
Montreals signing of Jake Allan for money and term (with no chance to ever be the starter) was a game changer. Sprinkle in the drafting of Spencer Knight after signing Bobrovsky for massive money and term. And a final dusting of Lehner/Fleury.
It was now suddenly ok for a) a team to invest >10 million in goaltending and b) goalies are now far more content playing one of the two roles.
All of this to say, a classic case of supply and demand; there is now a need for 64 good goalies instead of 32 and the Oilers have picked a terrible time to be in the goalie acquisition market.
We’re mentioning all of these goalies as being available because we’re assigning a 2015 concept to a 2021 problem. Adding in covid, are you really sure the Rangers want to move on from Georgiev? Even the Bruins three-headed monster isn’t really screaming for resolution. I’d assume Rask moves on and Swayman can live with that.
So going back to the Rangers, a team with Cup aspirations. They simply will not go into a playoff series (or frankly the next 5 years) without a #2 to Shesty. Georgiev is either untouchable OR if he’s grumpy about his role, will require a huge overpay as the Rangers will need to go out and get someone else good.
Skinner is a top 5 prospect for us even if he never becomes a true 1A.
Teams spending over $10 m on goalies isn’t that new.
Jim Nill had been doing it for years. The problem was that neither of his goalies were any good. 🙂 (Anti Niemi [$4.5m] and Kari Lehtonen [$5.9m])
Yes and no… You are very right in that most teams have strong backups now, which is why in past years Anthony Stolarz would be available for cheap and might be a good option. Especially with COVID restrictions, two or three goalies are a must have right now.
I find goaltending goes in waves. There will be a period of 5-10 years where teams run tandems, then a period of 5-10 years where Brodeur plays 77 games a year.
Oilers make-up game dates, starting Feb 8:
Edmonton
664 Vegas Edmonton 14-Jan 8-Feb 7:00 PM
699 Chicago Edmonton 18-Jan 9-Feb 6:00 PM
623 NY Islanders Edmonton 8-Jan 11-Feb 7:00 PM
522 Edmonton San Jose 23-Dec 14-Feb 7:30 PM
507 Edmonton Los Angeles 22-Dec 15-Feb 7:30 PM
493 Anaheim Edmonton 20-Dec 17-Feb 7:00 PM
681 Edmonton Winnipeg 16-Jan 19-Feb 3:00 PM
648 Minnesota Edmonton 12-Jan 20-Feb 6:00 PM
532 Edmonton Calgary 27-Dec 7-Mar 7:30 PM
https://cms.nhl.bamgrid.com/images/assets/binary/329954872/binary-file/file.pdf
This sets it out a big clearer:
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
The following Oilers games (previously postponed) have been scheduled:
– Feb. 8 vs. VGK
– Feb. 9 vs. CHI
– Feb. 11 vs. NYI
– Feb. 14 at SJS
– Feb. 15 at LAK
– Feb. 17 vs. ANA
– Feb. 19 at WPG
– Feb. 20 vs. MIN
– March 7 at CGY
Also, the April 16 game vs. VGK now starts at 2 p.m.
Some interesting anomalies in the Pacific Division schedules.
For example…between Feb 3 and Feb 28 Calgary plays only ONE road game and that is a quick trip to Vancouver and back home again.
In March, Calgary plays 12 home games and 4 on the road.
Their longest roadtrip in March is ONE game….1 in Minnesota, 2 separate trips to Colorado and 1 game in Vancouver.
Sutter has them sitting nicely. I’ll physically puke if they go on a long playoff run and we keep slipping out of a playoff race because Holland won’t pull the rip cord on dead man walking Tippett.
Well…the playoffs are a different beast but they are well positioned to win the Pacific unless Eichel can pull the VGK into top spot.
It’s not readily apparent from the official standings but the Flames are actually tied for 1st now based on points percentage and 5 of their next 7 games are against middling competition.
I recall them “well positioned” to make a huge run up the standings last season………
Home games are usually great but, of course, notwithstanding their big win last night at home, they have been awful at home this season overall.
The flames will run hot and cold as Markstrom runs hot and cold – that’s pretty much them.
That is very simplistic.
Fact is the Flames give up the fewest GA/GP in the Pacific Division by a wide margin and that’s more than goaltending.
Having an overwhelming number of home games is a huge advantage as the season grinds on as the team will spend almost zero time travelling and will have plenty of R&R and practise time.
I’m sure the injuries will revert to the meat
The dice have no memory so there is no greater chance the Flames will suffer more injuries than any other team going forward.
In fact, a more rested team is likely to suffer fewer injuries as fatigue is a contributing factor in the occurrence of injury.
Exactly
the dice won’t remember the flames aren’t supposed to get injured
“Fatigue and Betting on NHLFor our money the NHL is the most grueling sport in North America in terms of fatigue. The physical nature of the game combined with a heavy travel schedule can be brutal for athletes.”
https://www.wsn.com/betting-guide/fatigue/
Going forward, the Oilers and Flames have exactly the same chance of injury, EXCEPT for injuries where fatigue is a factor.
The fact the flames aren’t further ahead (like 0.5 P%) with essentially no man games lost due to covid or injury (nothing material) should be alarming for them. The “luckiest” team in the league in that regard.
As stated…the dice have no memory.
Every day is a new day.
I loved the Leon presser. Absolutely.
This team must feel like the whole world is down on them. They must feel like screaming a big F you to the world outside the locker room.
Leon steps up to basically say stop it already and get the heck off our backs. This is the leadership that can bring a team together.
I also like Jessie P’s interview where he talks about more discussion of a team as opposed to two superstars and a team. They are on to something here, probably always were but nice to hear it. Tippet can help by getting rid of “Top 6 jerseys”.
Lagesson’s cap hit is currently less than the league minimum and there is zero commitment to him in the future (he’s an RFA) yet not single NHL team felt inserting him on to their roster for free and for a decrease in cap hit over any player on their roster was worth a shot.
I too would have waived Koekkoek over Lagesson but it appears that management might, just maybe, know more about the value of their assets across the league.
We all (most of us) think there is a player there and he has some value but it appears he has zero – even at a cap hit less than the league minimum
The Kraken, Senators, Coyotes and Canadiens had zero interest in Lagesson for free.
Willy Legs still asking for a trade?
Is THIS ^ why he was on waivers.
Would explain everything really
I didn’t see a single person here or anywhere, mention this possibility prior to Lagesson clearing.
Perhaps Leo has it right.
Supposedly he wanted a trade
But really shows what the league thinks about some of these advanced stats on players with limited ice time
There’s also that his advanced stats from last year were awful (sub 40% in everything).
The slightly bigger picture is in the 3 year numbers LT posted above. Pretty not great.
The guy turns 26 next month too, so in no way a developing prospect.
What are your thoughts on Koekkoek?
Do you rate KoeKoek better than Lags?
Looking at the last two years combined, there’s not a lot to love between KK, Russell, and Lags other than Russell’s high on ice SV%
I’m ambivalent between the two. I looked earlier today at their Oiler career numbers and they’re virtually identical.
I’m no Koekkoek fan, but his numbers in Chicago were quality, including some offense. I don’t think there’s more upside to Lagesson at this point, and if there is any, it’s offset by Koekkoek actually having played at a decently high level in the past (not giving that much weight at this point either though).
Russell also has junk underlying numbers, but he beats those with some regularity. He also has ‘respected veteran’ and PK in his favor. The latter is the biggest for Tippett I’d guess, considering the struggle there lately (and his PK results really are good over multiple years).
But in terms of Lagesson vs Koekkoek, I wouldn’t have argued strongly for either one over the other.
I don’t think Lags or Koekkoek would bring back more than a very late round pick (if even that). And as I said this morning, I’d guess Holland would rather retain both for depth (if possible) than to have the 6th/7th round pick anyway.
Lags wouldn’t even bring back a 7th rounder in 2025 as no team wanted him for free even with a cap hit under the league minimum and no commitment after this season (RFA).
OK, well, I guess him clearing waivers (for the 2nd time this season) may make him tradeable for a 7th round pick in 2024 as he could be sent to the acquiring team’s AHL team.
Mehs across the board
All waiver wire types
Interesting banter between Stauffer and Lawton on “the other channel” referencing Carey Price (coincidence on the heals of MAF to Colorado rumors?)
I’m paraphrasing, “When looking at the Leafs loss to Montreal and comparing to the Oilers early 1st round exit; there are those who will looked at the Leafs and say “Team played soft; roster needs to change; mgt should be held to account for another first round exit”; As opposed to look at Carey Price; Similarly, Oilers detractors, not as willing to say Hey look at Connor Hellybuck”
Some people say hey “Carey Price .940 SV% against Leafs, also takes out Winnipeg and Las Vegas on the way to the Finals.”
Brian Lawton’s immediate response > “that’s ^ the guy Jeff Gorton is looking for” (meaning the guy whose view was “Carey Price .940 SV% against Leafs, also takes out Winnipeg and Las Vegas on the way to the Finals.)
Lawton went on to say, Teams/GMs are aware of the risk that the Price contract carries. Because of this, Gorton is going to have a difficult time getting fair value.
When forced to guess Lawton put the cost of Price 50% retained as a 1st and an asset, which is purposefully a pretty broad range; How high a 1st; How good an asset?
Rare nugget from Stauffer on “the other channel” referencing Carey Price (coincidence on the heals of MAF to Colorado rumors?)
I’m paraphrasing, “When looking at the Leafs loss to Montreal and comparing to the Oilers early 1st round exit; there are those who will looked at the Leafs and say “Team played soft; roster needs to change; mgt should be held to account for another first round exit”; As opposed to look at Carey Price; Similarly, Oilers detractors, not as willing to say Hey look at Connor Hellybuck”
Some people say hey “Carey Price .940 SV% against Leafs, also takes out Winnipeg and Las Vegas on the way to the Finals.”
Brian Lawton’s immediate response > “that’s ^ the guy Jeff Gorton is looking for” (meaning the guy whose view was “Carey Price .940 SV% against Leafs, also takes out Winnipeg and Las Vegas on the way to the Finals.)
Lawton went on to say, Teams/GMs are aware of the risk that the Price contract carries. Because of this, Gorton is going to have a difficult time getting fair value.
When forced to guess Lawton put the cost of Price 50% retained as a 1st and an asset, which is purposefully a pretty broad range; How high a 1st; How good an asset?
Price has been pretty average in the regular season for several years though, he certainly hasn’t been carrying that franchise to playoff berths very often. That’s certainly a concern if you’re spending high-end assets for a guy locked into a $5.25M deal until he’s 40… I don’t think anyone bites on that, honestly. There’s just WAY too much risk.
I know a GM who has a soft spot for 40-year-old players making 5 million bucks a season…
This paraphrase mischaracterizes the conversation I think. The point Lawton was trying to make was that Gorton would be doing very well to get a first round pick, and that this was a very difficult trade to make, i.e. he wouldn’t get a first round pick unless he found a sucker,
Even at 50% retained, Price’s contract has to have negative value. There is no way he would be able to sign a four year, 5.25 M contract in the off season.
I don’t think he’s even started rehabbing the knee injury…..
nit sure of source but apparently Colorado have had conversations with Chicago regarding MAF
It’s hard to eat a donair and keep up to the other posters on this page 🙂
Teemu continues his nice career https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=112587
They fumbled away a few really talented players via organizational chaos in a short period of time.
Well, yes, Hartikainen, Slepyshev, Lander, etc. have all have very good careers in the KHL (Lander recently moving leagues I believe) which, of course, is not equatable to success in the NHL.
I did like Hartikainen though and felt he could have been a player here.
Bopb just expressed a rumour that MAF is allegedly considering lifting his NMC to be moved to a top 5 club with COL as the target.
Freidman mentioned that possibility this morning as well.
So Kuemper to Edmonton then? :p
Probably when hes pissed off at Colorado in the offseason
Colorado has no cap space, they aren’t bringing Fleury in without equal cap going out. Fleury 50% retained is exactly the same cap hit as Kuemper, so you’d have to think the simple thing is to send him out.
Does Ken have the creativity to get in on a 3-way deal? MAF to Colorado, Kuemper to Edmonton, Koskinen to Chicago.
Colorado already traded their 1st and 2nd this year, so they’ll probably prefer to move prospects in this deal. Edmonton isn’t moving their 1st and so are down to prospects and players too.
That plays right into Chicago’s hands as it will give them a few assets to help with their mini rebuild.
So what? We’re paying Colorado and Chicago?
If Chicago retains half, Fleury’s cap hit is $3.5 million.
If they send Francouz ($2M) and, say, Tyson Jost ($2M) plus a prospect the other way, it’s an easy deal to make.
Now that Alex Newhook seems established he can play 3C.
Lord knows they could sacrifice some offence for goaltending if Sakic decides to go that way.
If Sakic gives up real assets to get MAF from Chicago after Chicago got him for free, should Sakic be fired?
Of course not.
The two trades would have nothing to with one another.
A year ago, lots of the Analytics community were reasonably high on Kuemper.
Where we at now?
When you have no pressure to win the game is different
Goalering is gonna keep the cup away from Colorado when compared to the big bad east teams. Clearly something Sakic thought he addressed with the Kuemper trade but has to address again.
The goalie market wasn’t great last summer. Sakic did avoid the disastrous Grubauer contract at least
You were right about Nedeljkovic last season. Outside of him, there haven’t been any really good goalies available via trade or free agency. One could maybe argue Driedger, but he hasn’t had a good start.
I thought it was a pretty strong year for Goalie options. Sakic took an Analytics/Cap control risk and sort of won and lost.
Holland was laser focused and ended up without a chair when the music stopped.
Seattle were lauded as the “Big Winners” but alas GM’ing is hard.
Thank goodness for Goalie Voodoo…. holding Colorado at bay.
Why did Holland waive Lagesson instead of Koekkoek?
1, the player had agitated for a trade, and this was Holland ‘doing a solid’ to Walsh to maintain his image as a decent dude. I’m giving your guy a chance for a fresh start, if anyone will offer it.
or/and,
2, Holland was fairly sure the player would clear, which, aside from retaining the asset, would have the beneficial side effect of shutting the agent and player up about a change of scenery. Nobody wanted you for free, so here we are, pal. Get back to work.
I see he cleared – mission accomplished.
Not agreeing necessarily, I don’t think it’s optimal asset management, but there you go.
Your 1 and 2 are basically the same thing. They go together.
That looks like optimal asset management to my eye.
I think that’s true only because it worked. The asset was definitely at risk of being lost for zilch. Not a major asset of course, but an asset nonetheless.
Waiving KK instead (for example) would have had virtually zero risk because of the contract attached. But that would have meant continued benching of Lagesson with no chance of escape.
The decision Holland made was to preserve a relationship/send a message, rather than lock down the asset. Whether that’s the right approach, YMMV…
KK has no contract risk. It is fully bury-able. But he is more famous and has five or six times more NHL appearances. He was more likely to get claimed.
Koekkoek expressed no interest in being traded.
Now nor will Lagesson for the remainder of the season.
Kenny wins this one.
An excellent Twitter thread with Jesse explaining how the Oilers are dealing with all the losing.
https://twitter.com/LonnbergMari/status/1483858039602098180?s=20
Mari Lonnberg is an essential follow for the Oilers fans.
Jesse sure does seem to talk to the Finnish media alot and Mari is great at (a) finding these interviews, (b) translating them properly and with context and (c) importantly, often providing background on the Finnish media that is conducting them.
Lagesson clears as expected, assigned to taxi squad.
Well done Ken Holland, wherever you are.
#SituationalAwareness
#MarketIntel
The Kraken, Senators, Coyotes and Canadiens had zero interest in Lagesson for free.
Willy Legs still asking for a trade?
Is THIS ^ why he was on waivers.
Would explain everything really
Bob opens his show today with “I’ve been through the desert on a horse with no name…”
William Lagesson clears, cue up an angry Allan Walsh
Matheson tells his side of the story:
https://globalnews.ca/news/8522656/edmonton-oilers-leon-draisaitl-jim-matheson-questions-answers/
TLDR: Matheson explains how he is clueless and out of touch.
Hey Jim, why do the majority of Oiler fans hate you? #TheMikkoQuestion
Thank You for reminding me of that.
Leon was giving Matheson the middle finger for his asshattedness including the Mikko question.
Good catch.
Just listened to an in depth interview with Jeff Marek and Panthers GM Bill Zito.
Marek asked him about how the team identified Carter Verhage as a potential top 6 forward.
Zito mentioned the team went hard after players with a high compete level including Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart and Verhage that had been identified by their analytics department as what he called “Sweethearts”.
Their analytics department is headed by Sunny Mehta.
I knew it. They’re using Mehta data.
I know bits and pieces, but Sunny Mehta is an intriguing fellow. I know that he did a brief stint as a professional poker player, co-wrote a poker book. Has a music degree or something. I know that he was once head of analytics for the Devils.
What I don’t know is how he convinced NHL teams to hire him?
Where did he used to write about analytics? I’ve been around this blog since 2009, but I don’t remember ever reading his work. I’ve read Dellow, Linkens, Hockey Graphs, Behind the Net, Tulsky, some of Vic Ferrari’s work (he disappeared just as I started following this site).
How did I never read anything Mehta wrote?
Well…poker and music are pretty much the definition of “mathy”.
Here’s the announcement of his hiring in Florida:
Florida Panthers General Manager Bill Zito announced today that the club has named Sunny Mehta Vice President of Hockey Strategy & Intelligence.
“Having Sunny join the Panthers is truly exciting,” said Zito. “He is an intelligent, talented and driven individual who will provide us with an expanded scope of analysis and accessible information. This integration of data and analytics into the fabric of our daily hockey operations will broaden our ongoing discussions and evaluation capabilities in the present and future of our franchise.”
Mehta pioneered the first full-time analytics department in the NHL, serving as Director of Hockey Analytics for the New Jersey Devils for four seasons (2014-15 to 2017-18). He has also consulted for the Washington Capitals (2019-20) and Arizona Coyotes (2010-11.)
Beyond his work in the National Hockey League, Mehta has also consulted for six Major League Baseball (MLB) teams through a partnership with Zelus Analytics.
The native of Wyckoff, N.J., played varsity hockey for Ramapo High School in Franklin Lakes, N.J., and graduated from the University of Miami’s Frost School of Music in 2000. Following his graduation, Mehta spent time as professional musician and poker player and co-authored two bestselling books on poker strategy.
Following his professional poker career, he served as a Proprietary Derivatives Trader at Peak6 Capital Management at the Chicago Board of Trade.
He most recently held the position of Senior Data Scientist for Zelus Analytics while pursuing his master’s degree in data science from City University of New York.
I think Holland has publicly prioritized “Motor” in his analysis.
#Hyman-Foegele-Holloway-Broberg
Bourgault? Petrov? Savoie?
Definitely Tu-Tu-Tullio, he’s motor personified.
well done, all around gents.
Archie, too.
Zito went on to explain that high compete level meant hard to play against.
As Woodguy would say…they’re dinks.
Holland has missed the boat on the difference between speed and effort and being hard to play against
Which involves winning battles and puck races and also having some edge
The Oilers seem obsessed with wanting nice guys. I don’t know where or when this started but it carries through GMs
And it’s opposite to their own history. When they have been most successful they were a tough edgy team
At times also with mad skills. They have been an easy team to out physical overall for yonks and the results speak for themselves
It’s a tough league, and most slick teams have to sandpaper it up a bit after getting punked in playoffs
It just makes it too easy for the opponent to take the easiest route (take your space, push you around) to shutting you down otherwise
Especially for less talented teams
“Holland has missed the boat…”
I don’t think this is necessarily true though. Look at the forwards Holland has brought in and you’ll see very high compete level: Hyman, Puljujarvi and Foegele, plus most of the picks (Holloway, Bourgault, Tullio, Chiasson, Lachance) exhibit the same characteristics.
Tullio is the only one with some edge as far as I’ve read
I meant the difference between fast skaters who are energetic and get in there vs those that are basically willing to be mean and win battles by whatever means
The Oilers have been made better on paper but lack crust
The wings had those types I’m interested why Kenny doesn’t seem to go after that
Unless his continuing lack of due diligence made him think Kassian and nurse were the answer
Nurse is too valuable to be that guy, Kassian is an orbiter
Savoie is not a speedy skater at all. He has improved it over last year , but does not have any better wheels than Benson
This is true on Savoie but I don’t agree with the statement from yesterday that small players need to be elite skaters. With that said, I do agree that small players likely need to have a stand-out attribute bordering on elite and Savoie has that with his shot (and his release and ability to change angles on in and shoot from non-ideal positions, etc.).
That was me
I like Savoie’s killer goal instinct, we’ll see if he’s got enough for the NHL game as it is
If he’s really good at scoring it can work
If he’s too one dimensional in the NHL though he’s a cap killer like Hoffman who bounces around because of it
I am really curious as to how an analytics department identifies a player’s compete level. If they’ve found a way thats incredible news since I’ve had the opinion that a prospects’ ability to succeed (outside of the top-end picks) would be their effort, compete and dedication to improve more than raw talent
Battles won (such as 50/50 pucks) and possession stats could probably be used somewhat to help quantify compete level but there must be a huge element of “saw him good” as well.
No idea the methodology but he went on to say, in the case of Verhage that they identified him as a player who consistently worked hard at all levels to overcome long odds to succeed.
He was a Leafs 3rd round pick who actually spent time in the ECHL before exploding in the AHL with Syracuse and wining a cup with Tampa.
Sounds like the stories on Marody when we acquired him from Philly. Too bad the Oilers haven’t given him a chance to succeed.
Reinhardt and Bennett were both great pickups. Bennett would have been a great add here especially adding that toughness and grit, both of them for that matter . Bennett probably Could have been a realistic one. Reinhardt only if Nuge wasn’t resigned.
I would have LOVED to pick up Bennett and stated so even prior to the trade. Of course, it is unlikely that Treliving would have dealt him to Edmonton without a material premium.
Heres some stats on some Goalie candidates (All 5v5… while PK and PP stats do count this is where the Oilers clearly struggle and therefore is something the Oilers need help with. Via MoneyPuck… NaturalStatTrick was giving some strange numbers.)
Braden Holtby – .930 Save% (+4.34 GSAA)
Marc Andre Fleury- . .923 Save % (+2.32 GSAA)
Alexander Georgiev – .922 Save % (+1.14 GSAA)
Linus Ullmark- .920 Save% (+0.23 GSAA)
Semyon Varlamov- .920 Save% (+ 0.12 GSAA)
Jake Allen- .918 Save% (-0.74 GSAA)
Karel Vejmelka – .917 Save% (-0.89 GSAA)
Martin Jones- .918 Save % (-1.41 GSAA)
Chris Driedger – .912 Save% (- 1.52 GSAA)
Anton Khudobin – .908 (-1.92 GSAA)
Stuart Skinner – .908 Save % ( -2.80 GSAA)
Mikko Koskinen- .906 Save% ( -6.15 GSAA)
Joonas Korpisalo – .887 Save % (-11.16 GSAA)
I think I gathered nearly every goalie reasonably available right now.
My take is:
Nearly every goalie besides Korpisalo represents a material upgrade. Keeping in mind that Goals Saved Above Average is not a per 60/min stat, bad goalies playing more will have worse stats, while good goalies playing more will have better stats.
If bad goalies don’t play their GSAA is better than it might be if they were forced to keep playing.
Therefore Khudobin (in his 9 games) is not an upgrade on Koskinen despite better Raw stats. If he played 11 more game he would likely find himself in the Koskinen neighbourhood. Skinner is trending in that direction as well, but at 23 he is more likely to figure it out and play better than the 35 year old Khudobin.
It would seem Jones’ resurgence is mostly the team in front of him, as his save% and GSAA are below league average, I would steer clear.
Holtby is the ideal target, but I’m not sure Dallas would be willing to part with him. If hes available, he would be fairly cheap and I would run to him, not walk.
Georgiev and Ullmark would be worth a decent amount as they are proving themselves above average goalies. I would be wary of Georgiev just because Shesterkin has outplayed him and both goalies have incredible stats. That might be more representative of a good team playing good defense than strong goaltending.
The rest in the middle would be upgrades and might even get a nice bump if they fit in with the team. However I would not pay the fees I would for Fleury, Georgiev or Ullmark. I would stray away fro Driedger since his contract would give us more years of what could be more of our level goaltending than any kind of improvement.
Varlamov is also hard to acquire since he has another year at $5 million, and he hasn’t exactly proven himself worth it this year.
There are also Fucale and Lindgren who have shown very well this year but the sample sizes are small on strong teams, and they do not have a history to support it. Could be good buy low candidates if they’ve figured things out but it is the weight of the world on a rookie-ish goalie.
So IMO:
Rentals:
Medium/long Term solutions:
Risky Rookies:
Stay away from:
Jake Allen is an interesting option.
Currently, he is on IR. He is also 31.
But, he is signed for another year at a decent number.
This is a great breakdown – thanks for compiling this. This is why I come to this site – thoughtful posts like this with analysis backed by stats. I’m sure folks will all have their preference for a target from this list but I like this breakdown and the tiering of targets. My gut says Fleury but only because of Holtby’s last season. Cost of acquisition of a rental is not irrelevant to this team too, so I think they are much more likely to be pulling from the second list and my gut says Ullmark from that group.
Nicely laid out. Thank You.
I think you’ve nailed it with your categories.
Among the top 6 MAF stands out because all the others play on sound defensive teams.
Also interesting to see:
Driedger marginally ahead of Skinner
Khudobin marginally ahead of Koskinen
Korpisalo marginally behind Koskinen
And then there’s circumstances
Why would Dallas move Holtby?
MAF wants to remain in the USA and has some trade protection.
The Mediums will cost above market value and might feel shell shocked moving mid season to a team with below average team defense.
The Rookies are indeed Risky.
All of this, and Hollands DNA and spoken word point in a specific direction.
Smith Skinner
Uninspired but likely imo
What does GSAx/60 show? That’s going to filter out bad defense, minutes played, etc.
Braden Holtby: + 0.33 GSAA/60
Marc Andre Fleury: +0.130
Alexander Georgiev: +0.09
Linus Ullmark: + 0.02
Semyon Varlamov: + 0.01
Jake Allen: -0.05
Karel Vejmelka: -0.06
Martin Jones: -0.12
Chris Driedger: -0.20
Anton Khudobin: -0.31
Stuart Skinner: -0.34
Mikko Koskinen: -0.39
Joonas Korpisalo: -1.07
We end up with exactly the same rankings. I think perhaps GSAA along with games played would make a difference.
Goals Saved Above Average has been argued that there should be more differentiation between shots. Shot 47 in a game would be much harder than save 12 due to fatigue, mental exhaustion etc….
Plus a goalie like holtby maintaining his high GSAA and GSAA/60 over a large is impressive, but Fleury has played 7 more games in the same span of time, and so even though he is not keeping up with Holtby, perhaps it shows he is more capable of handling the excessive workload.
Also this still doesn’t quite filter out bad defense. If Vasilevskiy faces 5 HDSC in a game and makes 4 saves, and Allen faces 15 and saves 12, thats the same save% but I would argue that Allen’s workload is much more intense than Vasy’s. IF he repeats that performance over a long period of time, I would be more inclined towards picking up Allen than Vasilevskiy, since it is much harder to maintain and would speak to that skill. That being said, it does a pretty good job of separating them out.
Heres something interesting:
Stuart Skinner faces 9.5 HDSC against per/60. That is the sixth highest in the league behind Husso from STL, the PHI goalies, Montembault from MTL and Spencer Knight. This might be due a bit to rookie goalies struggling to control rebounds etc… but does speak a bit to the defence Skinner has played behind.
By comparison Holtby faces 7.8 HDSC per 60, Fleury faces around 8.5 and Koskinen faces 8.2.
Considering the difference between Skinner and Koskinen’s HDSC against (btw HDSC shots against per game, not the chances themselves) we can either pin that on rookies, or on the defence that they have played behind. Skinner has played with the defense riddled with injuries much more often than Koskinen did, as Koski played behind our full strength Defense more often.
For comparison sake, Smith faces 8.72 HDSC shots against per 60.
Using expected goals against integrates shot quality though, which is why I suggested looking at GSAx vs GSAA. I think GSAA and save percentage have a high correlation, which is why the rankings are the same. I don’t use it at all myself.
Here’s Evolving Hockey’s GSAx/60 for your chosen 13:
Holtby: +0.177
Georgiev: +0.104
Allen: +0.087
Fleury: +0.060
Varlamov: +0.003
Jones: -0.084
Vejmelka: -0.141
Koskinen: -0.291
Ullmark: -0.359
Driedger: -0.417
Skinner: -0.452
Khudobin: -0.496
Korpisalo: -1.037
Keep in mind that this is for 2021-22 only, so it’s just a snapshot. Georgiev and Allen surprised me, although Allen has been around long enough that we know what he is, and “season saving starter” isn’t in the cards.
Ullmark, Driedger and Varlamov surprised too, but not in a good way. Ullmark isn’t getting traded so I don’t think it’s worth discussing, but Driedger and Varlamov did have great results in previous seasons so maybe there’s a “fresh start” possibility?
And excuse me for being pissy, but Korpisalo belongs in a different league.
Should we be talking about Mrazek too? Not sure his and Holland’s history, but he’s likely available. His GSAx/60 this year is horrible (-0.993) but small sample size of just 4 games. Last year was just the opposite (+1.268!!) albeit in just 12 games. The previous year he was pretty much average (-0.022) in 40 games but in 18-19 he was solid (+0.269) in 40 games. He does have a large contract to swallow though.
I’ve found Mrazek to be an extremely streaky goalie… hes either the hottest in the league or the coldest and VERY little in between! I’m not sure he’d be a great fit for a fragile team since we’re essentially gambling that he will be on a hot streak.
Thanks for the GSAx/60 (and also 31saves for the GSAA and other!). I’m 99% sure GSAA is directly calculated from SV% and shots faced/60 (so I agree with you).
On Mrazek, why would Toronto want to move him? IIRC he was also a UFA in 2019 when Holland came on board but Smith was signed instead. Mrazek got 2x$3.1M that year which suggests Holland wasn’t interested in giving him that deal.
My guess is Holland wouldn’t be interested in his longer, more expensive deal now.
Interestingly enough, since I had always thought that way as well, but everything I have seen is that GSAA does NOT account for shot quality. Correct me if I’m wrong but I have found a few sources so far that point the opposite.
Maybe there is an Adjusted GSAA? or does Evolving Hockey calculate it differently than NaturalStatTrick do you think?
Also you are right, Korpisalo is not an NHL goalie, and its interesting to see Allen jump up at this point… The Price rumors are interesting too, I’d be interested in taking a Flyer out on him for half price if the cost isn’t too dear.
GSAx !!!!
Thats the stat that accounts for shot quality!
Holtby is a product of the sound defensive systems in Dallas.
Montreal is rebuilding. I would target Allen and Petry.
Petry, Allen for Koskinen, Barrie, Samorukov, and Turris (modulo stuff on either side).
If the Habs retain $3MM on Petry….. my goodness that contract until he’s 37 is going to be an anchor. Sure, team and deployment matter but the man is already started down the other side of the cliff.
Fleury now saying he would waive to go to a contending team, which we are not close to right now.
Whatta thread. nicely done.
As noted yesterday, Perlini left practice. Tip said he hadn’t talked to him but didn’t think it was much.
Perlini is not at practice today and Foegele is with McDavid and Yamamoto.
Here is hoping this means Benson gets a look with McLeod. Benson was playing his best hockey prior to COVID and it seems Tip had forgot about that.
Kadri one of four last men voted on to the All Star rosters..
https://www.nhl.com/news/2022-nhl-all-star-game-last-men-in-announced/c-329910026
Love the Terry add, like the Kadri add, dislike the Stamkos add.
Not sure if it’s the new monitoring system, or self restraint, but keep up the good work.
You could seriously go from being Sean Avery to become a legit “Piss Cutter”
#It’sNeverTooLateToTurnANewLeaf
Guess Katz is at the scout meetings inCali.
like to be a fly on those walls
Is his attendance at these meetings out of the norm? If it is unusual then we can surmise that he is aware of the gravity of the situation re: the construction of the roster
From the ON article – An owner who has seemingly been fairly hands-off suddenly wanting to be involved “first-hand” at the organization’s scouting meetings would indicate that something major could be on the horizon.
This is purely speculation on my part, but I would assume Katz’s in-person presence at this meeting would indicate that there’s immense pressure to make the playoffs this year and that multiple jobs are on the line. I can’t imagine he’s there to say “this is fine!”
Or he’s just partying with his OBC buddies in his $120 million dollar home in LA.
Which Katz? The one that’s 6’4″ with a shocking red afro?
Seriously though, could be a sign that Katz is “motivated” to figure this out. Though, given past history its probable that he wants to be part of the decision making in ways that he clearly should not.
Owner interference seldom ends well.
Katz is not there to hold management’s feet to the fire.
Katz is at the meeting to feel important and slam a few pinots with his hockey buddies.
As long as he’s not drinking any f*%#ing merlot
ha!
Elliot Friedman posted this in relation to the Montreal Canadiens:
• What other hires are to come? In particular, what is future of the amateur scouting department, as the upcoming draft is a crucial start to the rebuild?
• Who, exactly, is untouchable on the roster?
• Have there been — or will there be — conversations with the core of this team about their desire to stay or go?
It may be a little ways off yet, but man this made me shiver; Too close to home. (The decade of darkness, has had a profound effect on me)
It is imperative that we win at least one if not both of the Florida/ Calgary games over the next few days . We lose both of those, and my God it will be horrifying in Edmonton, and possibly something these guys just cannot crawl out of.
It is definitely rubber meet road time.
Everyone thinking we should get this goalie or that one, take a step back. I would love to grab Georgiev out of New York, but he will cost a ton and why would NY trade him at this point ( Even though he wants out) when the #1 just came off of an injury. Also when we are nose diving to the bottom of the NHL, any team trading any goalie , or player to us right now will be asking for way too much. It will be very hard for Holland to make a hockey trade right now without giving up the #1 plus high end prospects .
the cost to get a retread will even be expensive, but to get an actual good goalie or up and coming young tender will be astronomical and I am sure that is possibly a reason Zholland has not gotten 1 yet, plus $$$$$$$$$ as I am sure he would like to send Koskinen back the other way, that also will add to the ask in terms of prospect or prospects going back.
This is why an Evander Kane is a critical pickup if he doesn’t get suspended for a long period of time, or period.
He is free.
Wild Willy just doesn’t have the boots to play full time in the show. Like the kid, but he is too slow on reaction speed ( quickness to the play) , for the speed he faces every night in the NHL. His jump is slow and it has not improved since he came into this organization. I am sure he has worked on that, but it isn’t coming for him.
Be very surprised if he is taken off waivers, but you never know. Maybe a team getting ready to unload players at the deadline could grab him ( Zona, Buffy, Montreal as examples).
I agree with LT. They should have waived Koekoe. He would be less likely to get claimed.
Victor Hedman just likely clinched another Norris Trophy.
TBL we’re forced to play with only 4D in LA last night.
Hedman played 32 minutes, scored 2G 1A and put the team on his back in the win.
What?!?
Not Bobby Makar ??
Hedman is on pace for an 88 point season…pretty tough to top that.
Pronounced Bobby McOrr
Makar remains on pace for 40+ goals.
We’re witnessing a golden age of superb defensemen.
Well, we’re not. But Colorado certainly is.
And Owen Power looks like a beast.
The guy just keeps getting better. Is he the best Swedish defenseman ever?
I still take Lidstrom, but Hedman is making it close….
Borje can still make a pretty good case as a trailblazer and for the psychological and physical abuse he had to endure.
LT goes full Switzerland on the Draisaitl v Matheson tussle. Smart man.
Combing through yesterday’s comments (e.g. feeble old fart, lazy, tired, should have retired 15 years ago, etc.), it’s abundantly clear that ageism is still very much alive and kicking as the final ‘socially acceptable’ prejudice in society.
If any any of these descriptors were applied to someone on the basis of their race, gender or sexual orientation, we would immediately cry foul. I would hope we would not overlook the opportunity for self-examination here. Recognizing these internal biases for what they are is the only way we all improve.
If your knee jerk reaction is to look at that confrontation through the lens of old vs young or player I love vs media I hate, that might be part of the problem.
A day removed from it, I suspect neither Leon or Jim felt they were being the best versions of themselves in that moment. Hopefully they find a way to step up and bury the hatchet.
That whole thing just kept escalating. I do think Mr Mattheson was hosting him on a bit too much. Just my opinion .
I desperately want the MSM to go harder on the players and mgt. Or more accurately, ask more probing questions and (KNOWING your going to get a pat answer) BE PREAPRED WITH THE FOLLOW UP QUESTION.
Not to disparage his track record, I have not been interested in anything Matheson says or writes for at least a couple of years now. (not sure if this coincided with budget cuts and layoffs)
For me Matheson asks a lot of silly questions, which to my ear have the ring of “disinterested/checked out”. And his ‘over the top reaction’ to Leo was an example for me of a well intentioned attempt to “Probe” that lacked preparedness, thoughtfulness or skill.
Lest we forget this not the1st time an Oiler has reacted this way to a Matheson question
https://streamable.com/clipper?url=https://streamable.com/kyl3x1
It is highly likely the players have collectively decided they have contempt for Matheson and his method of questioning.
Highly likely. Always a good phrase when one is trotting out pure speculation.
Implying, as you have, that the Oiler players as a group, have not discussed this would be incredibly naive.
There’s a sizable gap between speculating the players have discussed it and concluding they have en masse turned on Matheson.
Inconvenient to this speculation is the fact that Matheson asked another player the same question he posed to Draisaitl and received a cordial elaborative response.
And at least somewhat deservedly so imo
Thank Gord someone holier than us came along to instruct us about their feelings. Someone more pious in the ways of political correctness. If only we could make the world even more pious…
If treating others with respect is piety, guilty as charged,
The two are clearly not the same thing, as you know.
Good to know though, that your mission here is to make sure that we treat every single person named or discussed on this blog with the utmost respect. I’m sure we’ll learn your personal standards on the issue and elevate as we go.
How much respect did Matheson show Koskinen?
Draisaitl gave the exact same answer to the same question as Tippett did, except Tippett gave a laundry list, and Draisaitl used one word.
Draisailt is speaking a 2nd language. His answers are going to be terse and direct. If one word will do to give the same answer as Tippett, one word it is.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Jim!
I think you may have spelled Kurt wrong…jus spitballing.
Not sure if journalists have agents, but you are treading into Allan Walsh territory with your manlove for a person who has a history of crapping all over players, some of whom react harshly to him (Nuge & Drai), and others who are so flabbergasted at his line of questioning that their only reaction is a shocked silence (see-Koskinen).
Leon didn’t react the way Mathieson wanted him to and he pushed the button to get a reaction, so his name became relevant for another day.
You have been on point and on fire with your posts recently. Kudo’s
Which reminded us of what low standards and transparency the Hockey Hall of Fame has compared to MLB or the NFL Halls of Fame.
This is the problem with society today. People have an issue with someone and the chattering class immediately jumps in and accuses them of discrimination. Maybe, just maybe, people didn’t like the way he framed the question.
Should people be more thoughtful in their descriptors? Sure, that’s fair. But it doesn’t mean anyone was being ageist. Calling someone lazy, or tired is not ageist. Saying someone should have retired 15 years ago is not ageist. Calling someone an old fart is certainly ageist.
I know you’re only trying to remind people to reflect on the words they use, and that’s a noble goal. But society is polarized enough already. Searching for discrimination under every rock does not help.
Honest question, have you paid any attention to Matty (or Jonesy, for that matter) at all lately?
They’re largely irrelevant. Have been for years. There is something to the saying espoused by our host, “too long at the fair.”
There was a time they were excellent scribes, but they’ve lost their verve. No creativity left, no imagination. It’s as if they’re running on autopilot.
Frankly, it’s embarrassing.
Jim has a long history of saying stupid things that piss off players. That’s not ageism, that’s building a history. Remember his article about how Puljujarvi was being disrespectful by picking #98. What a joke. His treatment of Koskinen at the start of the season was beyond rude as well. If I was a player, I’d ignore his questions completely. There is no contractual obligation to answer a certain reporter, is there? The Edmonton Journal needs Draisaitl and the Oilers more than the Oilers need the Edmonton Journal (especially in today’s new media world). And the Journal’s subscribers wouldn’t allow them to not cover the Oilers.
Matheson accused Leon of being Pissy because he wasn’t getting the answers he wanted, Leon answered him.. Everything. Matheson wanted Leon to throw teammates and coaches under the bus and got pissy when he didn’t.
Matheson is a miserable dinosaur that contributes nothing but negativity now to Oilersville. The respected professional forgot or just hasn’t wanted to play that part for many years now. It’s tiring and it’s time it came to an end.
This may or may not be true in this situation, but if it is, you might as well get used to it because I don’t think any amount of wokism is ever going to change it.
Youth in the spotlight is a deeply ingrained animal behaviour. It’s coded in our genes. We even do it on this blog with players coming up. Everyone loves the shiny new young guy who moves up the ranks more than the tired old vets (Larsson, Keith, Russell) who do a pretty good job, better than most of the rookies. We scoff at trading for a 31 year old, or signing a 32 year old.
The world loves youth. The older we get, the more irrelevant we are to everyone but those our own age.
It is especially harsh on women. Guys seem to get a bit of a longer run before the world starts to look past them with vacant eyes.
I fondly remember the days of rolling down the halls catching the eyes of more than a few men. And all the smiles and long looks from almost every stranger out in the general public. The extra friendly questions from the young men at the car rental counters and ample eye contact. Now it’s just “Here are your keys ma’am” with a distinct absence of eye contact.
At work, I was the up and coming star and everyone wanted face time even though I was not nearly as good or knowledgeable as my older colleagues.
I’m better at what I do now than I was back then, but I don’t get the attention that I used to. Now it goes to the new, young people.
This is just the way it is and it always will be. Still, I am grateful for the opportunities I have had and continue to have knowing that I will become less important to almost everyone but my close family and friends as time goes on. Because the only thing worse than becoming Ms. Cellophane is becoming Ms. Cellophane AND complaining about how no one pays attention to me anymore.
I’ve had my chance to be young. Now it’s someone else’s turn.
The one major benefit of age is that I just don’t care as much about external things like I did when I was younger. So it’s easy to be happier and not worry about what other people think about my age.
This is incredibly insightful.
Well written, Ash. Thanks for providing your perspective and experiences.
Great post. Appreciate your personal perspective on this.
I agree that it’s likely that the primary reason that ageism lingers as the last acceptable prejudice is the ‘most experienced’ among us simply can’t be bothered to pushback on it. Time gets sweeter the less you have of it, and how much energy should one devote to fighting others’ ignorance and/or biases when you’re very much swimming upstream against both the cultural AND genetic tide you’ve highlighted here?
With every other prejudice, it’s taken a concerted effort from those marginalized to overturn long held societal mores. There is no civil rights movement or flashpoint for seniors.
FWIW, I don’t consider an argument for basic rights to be ‘wokisim.’ It is often couched as that by its adherents, but imo, that is a shell game that is being used to perpetrate a more invasive agenda. Over the holidays, I read an excellent book called Woke Racism by McWhorter and the author posits an interesting theory that wokism shares more commonalities with organized religions than it does historical civil progress movements.
Btw, another element to this worth highlighting is the cultural/geographic one. There are many cultures around the world that do celebrate and respect their elderly as valued leaders and/or worthwhile contributors to their society.
North America with its myopic focus on the latest trend and superficial celebrity is not a culture fine tuned for subtlety or substance. We do love our shiny new toys.
LT, you are over-valuing prospects.
Again. 😉
This is a tempest in a tea kettle. A non-issue. A nothing burger.
Koekkoek is more likely than Lagesson to get claimed. And the odds of Lagesson getting claimed at all are low. They’re not zero and you never know it could happen, but the Oilers made the better, safer bet.
The Oilers have enough mistakes for which we can crucify them. This is not one of them.
LT has been spot on that the Oilers Mgt has been bleeding assets/collateral for a long long time now.
While not a crucifiable offense, I think it fair to ask, even at the lowest end of the asset mgt food chain, was this the most efficient way to manage the asset?
I think it’s 60/40 that he clears. Does Holland have intel that says the same or better?
Will the MSM “respectfully” demand to know?
Waiving the other player is more likely to bleed assets. So, if the goal is to not bleed assets, you waive Lagesson. You’re still taking a chance at bleeding, but less of a chance.
Willy Legs seems like a version of Martin Marincin light.
Is it another example of organizational inefficiency, or just normal league wide churn.
How would a business measure that.
Would they employ a “Look after the nickels and dimes and the dollars will look after themselves” or ” don’t get attached to replacement level players” type of approach.
Was there a cap reason why Lagesson had to be put on waivers? Was he thoroughly shopped first? Or, is a 6th / 7th round pick type of return not worth the effort?
Assume nothing. Ask the GM, Matty, Stauff, Spector.
These are good questions.
The way I look at it, the Oilers had to choose between Lags, Russell and Koekoe.
Holland only looks at GF% which explains the choice.
Lags: 41.7
KooKoo: = 47.5
Russell = 55
Unfortunately, we know that defensemen don’t own their on ice SV% and Willy’s is .848 compared to Russell at .926 and Kookoo at .899
I have to admit major bias here. Words cannot describe the “seen him bad” that I have for Koekkoek.
If that guy is the answer for something, I have to idea what the question is.
What can Koekkoek actually do? He isn’t a great skater. He’s not physical and can’t box out players. His gaps aren’t great. He has no offense. He’s made of glass.
Kookoo and Lags have played similar toi/g at about 10:50. Russell more at 13:51.
For my money, what happens to these players next year?
You’d expect Russell to retire, but with Kenny at the helm, he’ll get another contract.
KooKoo has a year left on his contract which is why he likely would have sailed through waivers.
Next year, Kenny will probably extend Russell. We’re stuck with a year left on Kookoo’s contract, so who knows, but Lags will probably be patrolling the bottom pairing on another team.
For my money, I agree with LT. I would have waived KooKoo and hung on to Lags until he had at least some trade value, perhaps, in the summer.
I appreciate your reasoning.
I thinks there’s a less than 5% chance Russell resigns (anywhere) (But could bring back a 4th/5th/6th at the deadline. Another excellent example of evaluating Oilers Mgt values collateral. Is the Russell safety blanket worth more than a 6th? probably. More than a 4th?
I think Holland thinks Koekkoek is more of a know quantity league wide, and so is marginally less likely to clear.
My question is, and we will never know, how much has Holland shopped either player to gauge interest?
Lagesson on waivers suggests that, Holland having done his job, knows that Koekkoek has a higher value in the market place.
But lets not assume. Ask Holland MSM.
Great post. I waive KoeKoe because he has a higher cap hit and is less likely to get claimed.
I have no doubt that if Lagesson is not claimed he will not have an NHL career.
I have no doubt that if Lagesson is claimed he will have an NHL career and score at least three goals against the Oilers.
Shrodinger’s defenseman.
Note: I do not understand the first thing about quantum mechanics. I just like the name “Schrodinger”.
Is this about dead cat bouncing?
Schrodinger’s fancy stats show he’s over rated, I’m more of a Dirac fan
I mean, some people say Heisenberg was the one pushing the river, but I’m uncertain.
Dirac’s “Principles of Quantum Mechanics” is a masterpiece.
The first chapter is quantum mechanics from first principles, not as a derivative of classical mechanics.
You can’t derive QM from first principles nor develop it as a derivative of classical mechanics. You can do what Dirac did though: propose some fundamental rules and then solve every physical problem you can to see how your theory does.